Super Micro Computer
An assembler of complete AI server racks: it buys other companies' chips, builds the boards, power and liquid cooling around them, and ships the finished rack.
Our viewNeutral Medium conviction
The scores
The profile · 1-4
Growth3/4 ↑
Revenue grew 77.8%, the cohort's fastest, but its server revenue fell 13.2% two quarters earlier while the market grew 61.1%.
Business quality2/4 ↓
No mechanism stops a buyer leaving: the blueprint is public, services are 1.4% of sales, and it cuts price to hold share.
Financial position2/4 ↓
Cash covers the debt today, but the fiscal 2027 guide needs billions more working capital that has not been raised or quantified.
Execution record2/4 ↑
A gross margin guide wrong by more than double in two months, a late annual report two years ago, and an unquantified catalogue target.
Per share capture2/4 ↓
Diluted shares are guided 23.7% above fiscal 2024 and $301.9M of preferred dividends now rank ahead of the common.
Potential2/4 →
The pond is huge and growing, but the upside rests on orders the company itself says may be cancelled.
Risk profile2/4 →
One supplier is 63.1% of purchases, three customers 52.6% of receivables, and an export-control matter still sits with a foreign prosecutor.
Valuation3/4 →
The price assumes the guided plan and little beyond it, but half the trailing earnings came from a quarter already guided away.
Evidence quality3/4 →
Filings, two competitors' annual reports and an independent tracker, but the margin decomposition and the next guide exist only on one call.
The bet · 2-3 years
Safe, little upside1.3×
If it works 1.3× · if it fails you keep about 89%.
The Verdict
We rate Supermicro neutral. It builds other companies' chips into complete AI server racks and keeps only about a tenth of each sales dollar. The business is weak: fast growth used up billions in stock and unpaid customer bills, covered by new debt and new shares. The price is fair, not cheap, because half the year's earnings came from one quarter whose margin management has already guided down. As a bet it is safe, with little upside: the server business covers most of the price, and the new data-centre catalogue adds little even at management's goal. The view hinges on cash.
The long caseIf AI data centres keep going up faster than buyers can staff them, one supplier delivering the whole hall, cooling and software included, may earn more than bare servers do.
The evidence under this - 8 claims
C01facthigh confidence
Net sales were $39,063.1M in fiscal 2026, up 77.8% from $21,972.0M in fiscal 2025.
C02facthigh confidence
Gross margin was 10.8% in fiscal 2026, against 11.1% in fiscal 2025, 13.8% in fiscal 2024 and 18.0% in fiscal 2023.
C07management claimmedium confidence
Q1 fiscal 2027 gross margin was guided to 10.4%-10.8%; on 20 October 2026 the company's unaudited preliminary estimate for the quarter is 12.0%-12.5%, attributed to customer and product mix.
sourceQ4 fiscal 2026 earnings call transcriptprimarySuper Micro Computer Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1, preliminary…primary
against this
- The same management guided Q4 fiscal 2026 to 8.2%-8.4% and delivered 17.5%, so its gross margin guidance has recently been wrong by more than double in the company's favour.
- The figure exists only in the call. It is in neither the results release nor the 10-K, so a reader working from the filings alone would not know the reported 17.5% had been guided away.
- The 20 October figure is a preliminary estimate the company says its auditor has not reviewed and that may change; the final figure, and the call on 3 November, are the test.
- 2026-10-20editedThe company's 20 October preliminary update put Q1 gross margin at 12.0%-12.5% against the 10.4%-10.8% guide; claim now states both.
C08facthigh confidence
Q4 fiscal 2026 net income of $1,178.2M was 52.8% of the $2,230.5M earned in the whole of fiscal 2026.
C09facthigh confidence
Operating activities used $6,809.9M of cash in fiscal 2026, against net income of $2,230.5M.
C12facthigh confidence
Financing supplied $9,478.8M in fiscal 2026: $4,468.8M of new borrowings, $1,406.8M of common stock and $4,230.8M of mandatory convertible preferred, each net of issuance costs.
C40estimatemedium confidence
At $39.85 the shares trade at 12.2 times fiscal 2026 reported diluted earnings and about 9.2 times the $4.34 consensus for fiscal 2027.
derivedthe closing price in the frozen pack over reported diluted earnings per share of $3.26 from the fiscal 2026 statements, and over the fiscal 2027 consensus of $4.33842 from ten analysts in the pack; C01, C18
against this
- The consensus of $4.34 sits below the earnings the company's own guidance implies, and rests on ten contributors; a panel that small can move a long way on one revision.
- The vendor's own trailing price-to-earnings of 11.0 is struck on the company's non-GAAP figure of $3.63 rather than the reported $3.26, so a screen shows the stock cheaper than the filed accounts do.
- Neither multiple carries the $8.72B of debt or the $4.23B of preferred that funded the working capital; on enterprise value the same business is priced at 0.80 times sales rather than the 0.64 the vendor reports.
C58management claimlow confidence
On the Q4 fiscal 2026 call the chief executive said the DCBBS product line is 'getting mature', that Super Micro is shipping 'more and more DCBBS hardware and also software service and some switch', and that DCBBS 'will soon contribute significant net income'; asked how far DCBBS had reached the roughly 20% of gross profit previously guided for the year, he gave no figure and said '20% should be not far away'.
against this
- The 10-K reports one operating segment and no revenue or gross profit for DCBBS (C46), so the 20% goal cannot be checked against anything filed.
- Services and software, the part of DCBBS that would recur, were 1.38% of fiscal 2026 sales and a smaller share than in either prior year (C31).
The company
An AI data centre is built from racks of processors that draw so much power they must be cooled with liquid. Supermicro buys the processors, memory and storage, designs the boards, chassis, power and cooling around them, then assembles, tests and installs the whole rack. One supplier provided 63.1% of everything it bought in fiscal 2026.
Buyers choose it for speed on each new chip generation. Cisco, a rival, now resells its systems rather than build its own.
The evidence under this - 2 claims
C03facthigh confidence
One supplier accounted for 63.1% of total purchases in fiscal 2026.
C35facthigh confidence
Cisco said on 25 August 2026 it will sell Super Micro systems inside its Secure AI Factory with NVIDIA, and stated no volume, term or purchase commitment.
How it makes money
It sells each rack for a little more than its parts cost: gross margin was 10.8% in fiscal 2026, down from 18.0% in 2023, and services and software, the only part that repeats, were 1.4% of sales. So profit depends on volume, and volume needs cash, because parts are bought months before a customer pays.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C02facthigh confidence
Gross margin was 10.8% in fiscal 2026, against 11.1% in fiscal 2025, 13.8% in fiscal 2024 and 18.0% in fiscal 2023.
C31facthigh confidence
Revenue from all services and software was $538.3M in fiscal 2026, 1.38% of sales, against 1.50% in fiscal 2025 and 1.52% in fiscal 2024.
C11estimatemedium confidence
Inventory days rose from about 87 to about 135 and the cash conversion cycle from about 100 days to about 169 days over fiscal 2026.
derivedinventories, receivables and payables from the fiscal 2026 balance sheet over cost of sales and net sales from the same filing, annualised at 365 days; C01, C02, C10
against this
- Year-end balances are a point in time, and fiscal 2026's quarters were extremely uneven - $5.02B of revenue in Q1 against $12.68B in Q2 - so a cycle struck on the closing balance sheet against the full-year cost base overstates the days if the year-end inventory was staged for a Q1 fiscal 2027 shipment management said had slipped out of Q4.
- Management says contract terms on the current order book are tighter than on the book that produced these balances, which if true would shorten the cycle without any operational change.
Where the money comes from, stream by stream
| Stream | Share of sales (fiscal 2026) | How it earns it |
|---|---|---|
| Servers, storage, subsystems and accessories | 98.6% | Complete AI and general-purpose servers and racks, plus boards, chassis and power supplies, sold directly and through channel partners; 70.9% shipped to the United States. |
| Services and software | 1.4% | Support contracts, rack-level deployment and management software; $420.3M is service recognised over the contract term. |
Who runs it
Charles Liang founded Super Micro in 1993 and still runs it as chief executive and chairman; Mark Long became chief financial officer on 14 October 2026, replacing David Weigand, who had run finance since 2021. Liang and his wife own about 13% of the company, so he shares other holders' gains and losses. He takes a $1 salary and no cash bonus; his options paid out on sales growth and a rising share price, and the last part needs the price higher still. His pay rewards neither margin nor cash.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C54facthigh confidence
Charles Liang founded Super Micro in September 1993 and has been president, chief executive and chairman since; David Weigand was chief financial officer from February 2021 until 14 October 2026, when the board appointed Mark Long, a former Western Digital chief financial officer, to the role (the 8-K does not say whether Weigand remains chief compliance officer, a post he has held since May 2018); co-founder Yih-Shyan (Wally) Liaw, who resigned all positions in January 2018, rejoined the board in December 2023.
sourceSuper Micro Computer proxy statement (DEF 14A), filed March…primarySuper Micro Computer Form 8-K, Item 5.02, dated October 14,…primary
- 2026-10-15edited8-K filed 2026-10-15: Mark Long became chief financial officer on 2026-10-14 and David Weigand ceased in that role; the officer fact was out of date, the argument is unchanged
C55facthigh confidence
As of 31 January 2026 Charles Liang and his wife, director Sara Liu, beneficially owned 82,084,339 shares, 13.4%, including options; directors and executive officers as a group owned 16.1%, Wally Liaw 2.6%; Vanguard at 11.5% and BlackRock at 6.9% were the other holders above 5%. There is one class of common stock.
against this
- The percentages are struck on 598,989,428 shares; 656,882,499 were outstanding at 30 June 2026 after the June offerings (C57), so the founders' share is now smaller than the table states.
- Liang and Liu sold one 200,000-share block under a Rule 10b5-1 plan in September 2026 (C45), about 0.3% of their holding.
C56facthigh confidence
Charles Liang takes a $1 salary and no cash bonus until the 2023 CEO Performance Award fully vests or 31 March 2029; that award is 5,000,000 options at $45.00 in five tranches, each needing a trailing four-quarter revenue goal of $13.0B to $21.0B and a 60-day average price of $45 to $110. All revenue goals and four price goals are met; the $110 goal is not, and award shares may not be sold before 14 November 2026. The other officers' bonuses pay on stock price, revenue growth and investor KPIs plus the CEO's own adjustment factor.
against this
- No metric for the chief executive pays on gross margin, operating cash flow or return on capital, so the fiscal 2026 cash outflow (C09) cost his award nothing; the revenue goals were all met by fiscal 2025.
- The sales head's programme weights inventory four times, the one KPI anywhere in the plan that touches working capital.
- For the CFO the CEO's subjective adjustment factor supplied 4.00 of a 4.89 total multiple in fiscal 2025, so most of that bonus was discretionary.
Why it wins, and who could beat it
Why customers come back
Nothing locks them in. The chip is somebody else's, the chip maker publishes the rack design, and the company's own explanation for its falling margin is pricing to win share. It keeps the lowest gross margin of the rivals its annual report names.
It shows in how its market share swings: from 7.4% to 4.0% within a year, then back to 7.6% in the first quarter of 2026.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
C34facthigh confidence
NVIDIA publishes a public reference architecture for its rack-scale systems that includes recommended rack layouts and wiring guidelines.
C49facthigh confidence
The company attributes the fiscal 2026 gross margin decline to its strategy of offering competitive pricing to gain market share, product and customer mix, and higher manufacturing expenses.
C41factmedium confidence
Against the competitor cohort its own annual report names, Super Micro's fiscal 2026 gross margin of 10.8% is the lowest - Dell reports 19.8% and Hewlett Packard Enterprise 36.0% - and its earnings multiple is the cheapest.
C23facthigh confidence
In the third quarter of 2025 Super Micro's server vendor revenue fell 13.2% and its share fell to 4.0% from 7.4%, while the market grew 61.1%.
C22facthigh confidence
IDC put Super Micro second worldwide at $9,331.0M of server vendor revenue and 7.6% share in the first quarter of 2026, against Dell first at $20,280.8M and 16.5%.
The threat
Dell sells more than twice as many servers by value, sold $24.68B of AI servers in its last year, and earns an 11.7% operating margin on the division against Supermicro's 7.09% overall. NVIDIA sells its own rack systems. And the biggest buyers can have Taiwanese contract manufacturers build to their own design.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
C22facthigh confidence
IDC put Super Micro second worldwide at $9,331.0M of server vendor revenue and 7.6% share in the first quarter of 2026, against Dell first at $20,280.8M and 16.5%.
C26facthigh confidence
Dell's AI-optimized server revenue was $24,683M in fiscal 2026, up 166%, and it discloses non-cancelable manufacturing orders as backlog.
C25facthigh confidence
Dell's Infrastructure Solutions Group earned operating income of 11.7% of its segment net revenue in fiscal 2026, against Super Micro's 7.09% for the whole company.
C33facthigh confidence
NVIDIA states its Data Center platform is typically delivered to customers as rack-scale systems, subsystems, or modules.
C36facthigh confidence
Super Micro's fiscal 2026 10-K names Cisco, Dell, Hewlett-Packard Enterprise and Lenovo as competing vendors and Foxconn, Quanta Computer and Wiwynn as competing original design manufacturers.
The rivals: DELL, NVDA, VRT, HPE, CSCO, and 1 more that is private, in-house or listed abroad.
Who else does this, rival by rival
| Ticker | Rival | Where it competes | How far along | Priced against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DELL | Dell TechnologiesPriced against it: Yes | Server and storage systems | On sale | Yes |
| NVDA | NVIDIA's own DGX and reference-architecture rack systemsPriced against it: Different product | Server and storage systems | On sale | Different product |
| Quanta Computer, Wiwynn and Hon Hai (Foxconn)Priced against it: Listed abroad | Server and storage systems | On sale | Listed abroad | |
| VRT | VertivPriced against it: One segment only | Data Center Building Block Solutions (DCBBS) | On sale | One segment only |
| HPE | Hewlett Packard EnterprisePriced against it: Yes | - | On sale | Yes |
| CSCO | Cisco SystemsPriced against it: Shown, not counted | - | On sale | Shown, not counted |
How big it could get
How big this could get
Servers with AI chips sold for $68.9B worldwide in the first quarter of 2026, in a market that grew 30.4% while the number of servers grew only 3.3%. About half of all servers are bought through branded vendors like Supermicro rather than built to order. Its own $39.06B of revenue last year was about a fifth of what NVIDIA sold in data-centre chips and networking.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C42facthigh confidence
IDC measured the worldwide server market at $122,617.8M in the first quarter of 2026, up 30.4%, with GPU-accelerated servers at $68.9B and unit growth of 3.3%.
C24facthigh confidence
ODM Direct suppliers' share of the server market fell from 64.1% to 50.2% in the first quarter of 2026, on revenue growth of 2.1%.
C01facthigh confidence
Net sales were $39,063.1M in fiscal 2026, up 77.8% from $21,972.0M in fiscal 2025.
C04facthigh confidence
NVIDIA's gross profit was 71.1% of revenue in its fiscal year ended 25 January 2026.
Who has signed
Management says it took more than $60B of new orders in the June quarter, but its own words are that some may not be firm and may be cancelled, and the annual report never uses the word backlog. The one money-down commitment is $943.4M of non-refundable customer prepayments.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C28management claimlow confidence
Management said more than $60B of new orders were received in Q4 fiscal 2026 and that backlog rose to record levels entering fiscal 2027.
sourceFourth quarter and full fiscal year 2026 results release,…primaryPreliminary business update for Q4 fiscal 2026, 8-K Exhibit…primary
against this
- The company's own 21 July release says of the same orders that 'some of which may not constitute firm commitments and may be subject to cancellation or delays and remain subject to fulfillment of the applicable terms and conditions by both parties'.
- No figure for the backlog is given anywhere, and the 10-K filed six weeks later does not use the word - so the record cannot be measured, compared with the prior year, or checked against conversion.
- Dell, a direct competitor, discloses backlog inside remaining performance obligations to the extent orders are non-cancelable, which shows the disclosure is available to a company that wants to make it.
C29facthigh confidence
The company's own words on the $60B of orders are that some may not constitute firm commitments and may be subject to cancellation or delays.
C30facthigh confidence
Deferred revenue rose $1,880.6M in fiscal 2026, including a $943.4M increase in non-refundable advance consideration received from customers.
The results
The numbers
Is it growing?Fast
Sales grew 78% in the year to Jun 2026, faster than the 47% in the year before.
Is it profitable?Thin
Operating margin is 7.1%, down from 11% in the year to Jun 2023.
Does growth pay off?Costly
Running costs take 4¢ of each sales dollar, down from 9¢ in the year to Jun 2022.
Does it earn good returns?Strong
Each dollar put into the business earns 21% a year after tax, about where it was (18%) in the year to Jun 2022.
How long can it keep going?Limited
It used $6.97B of cash in the latest year, so the $7.54B it holds lasts about 1.1 years at that pace.
How steady is it?Swingy
Yearly sales growth has ranged from +37% to +110% over the last 5 years.
Are shares being diluted?Diluting
The share count rose 30% in 4.0 years, and pay in shares costs 1.1% of sales.
All the numbers
Filed figures from the company's 10-K and 10-Q, read 2026-10-04. Fiscal years end in June.
| Jun 2022 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Size and growth | |||||
| Sales | $5.20B | $7.12B | $15.0B | $22.0B | $39.1B |
| Sales growth | +46% | +37% | +110% | +47% | +78% |
| Profit | |||||
| Gross margin | 15% | 18% | 14% | 11% | 11% |
| Operating margin | 6.5% | 11% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 7.1% |
| Net margin | 5.5% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 4.8% | 5.7% |
| What growth costs, per sales dollar | |||||
| Research and development | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.0% |
| Sales and marketing | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.9% |
| General and admin | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.9% |
| Pay in shares | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.1% |
| Capital spending | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Cash | |||||
| Cash from operations | −$441M | $664M | −$2.49B | $1.66B | −$6.81B |
| Free cash flow | −$486M | $627M | −$2.61B | $1.53B | −$6.97B |
| Balance sheet | |||||
| Cash and short-term investments | $267M | $440M | $1.67B | $5.18B | $7.54B |
| Debt | $597M | $290M | - | - | - |
| Net cash | −$329M | $150M | - | - | - |
| Returns and shares | |||||
| Return on capital | 18% | 30% | 30% | 19% | 21% |
| Shares (diluted) | 536M | 560M | 602M | 628M | 697M |
What growth costs
Growing makes Super Micro less profitable, not more. Its office and research costs shrink as a share of each sale, but it wins orders by cutting prices, and that costs more than the savings. Growth also ties up cash in stock and unpaid bills.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C52facthigh confidence
Per sales dollar, research and development fell from 3.1% in fiscal 2024 to 2.0% in fiscal 2026, sales and marketing from 1.3% to 0.9%, general and administrative from 1.3% to 0.8% and total operating expenses from 5.7% to 3.7%, while operating margin went from 8.1% to 7.1%.
C02facthigh confidence
Gross margin was 10.8% in fiscal 2026, against 11.1% in fiscal 2025, 13.8% in fiscal 2024 and 18.0% in fiscal 2023.
C49facthigh confidence
The company attributes the fiscal 2026 gross margin decline to its strategy of offering competitive pricing to gain market share, product and customer mix, and higher manufacturing expenses.
C10facthigh confidence
Inventories rose to $12,896.0M from $4,680.4M and receivables to $6,125.4M from $2,203.9M over fiscal 2026.
The last report (11 Aug)
Quarter ended June 2026, filed figures.
93%
Sales growth
against the same quarter a year earlier
8.6%
Growth from the quarter before
against -19.2% the quarter before that
13¢
Operating profit
per dollar of sales
The June 2026 quarter looked like a transformation. The margin had been guided at 8.2% to 8.4% and came in at 17.5%, and the quarter earned 52.8% of the whole year's profit.
Management credits about three-quarters of that to mix and a quarter to one-off items, and guides the September quarter's margin back to 10.4% to 10.8%. Revenue there is guided 30% to 39% higher, earnings per share 40% to 45% lower.
What it did to the thesisIt showed what a good quarter can look like, but management itself guided the margin back down, so it proved little about lasting profit. It left the cheap price looking cheap mainly because of this one quarter, which keeps the view Neutral.
The quarter in detail
Sales growth from the previous quarter, filed figures. The company has restated its own history, so a quarter either side of the restatement may describe a different business; n/c marks one that does not compare.
Earnings per share $1.70 against $0.92 expected.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
C05facthigh confidence
Q4 fiscal 2026 gross margin was guided to 8.2%-8.4% and reported at 17.5%.
C08facthigh confidence
Q4 fiscal 2026 net income of $1,178.2M was 52.8% of the $2,230.5M earned in the whole of fiscal 2026.
C06management claimmedium confidence
Management attributed about three-quarters of the Q4 margin improvement to mix and about a quarter to tariffs and inventory write-downs, calling the excess-and-obsolete result a nonrecurring event.
against this
- The split was put to the chief financial officer by an analyst, who did the arithmetic himself ('about $700 million for mix and $230 million from the other bucket on my math'); management neither confirmed the figures nor published its own decomposition anywhere in the release or the 10-K.
- The company said it booked no tariff rebate and is 'actively pursuing refunds', so the tariff benefit in the quarter is a cost that did not arise rather than income received - which makes its reversal depend on trade policy rather than on the company.
C07management claimmedium confidence
Q1 fiscal 2027 gross margin was guided to 10.4%-10.8%; on 20 October 2026 the company's unaudited preliminary estimate for the quarter is 12.0%-12.5%, attributed to customer and product mix.
sourceQ4 fiscal 2026 earnings call transcriptprimarySuper Micro Computer Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1, preliminary…primary
against this
- The same management guided Q4 fiscal 2026 to 8.2%-8.4% and delivered 17.5%, so its gross margin guidance has recently been wrong by more than double in the company's favour.
- The figure exists only in the call. It is in neither the results release nor the 10-K, so a reader working from the filings alone would not know the reported 17.5% had been guided away.
- The 20 October figure is a preliminary estimate the company says its auditor has not reviewed and that may change; the final figure, and the call on 3 November, are the test.
- 2026-10-20editedThe company's 20 October preliminary update put Q1 gross margin at 12.0%-12.5% against the 10.4%-10.8% guide; claim now states both.
C21estimatehigh confidence
Q1 fiscal 2027 is guided to revenue 30% to 39% above Q4 fiscal 2026 and to GAAP diluted earnings 40% to 45% below it.
derivedthe Q1 fiscal 2027 guide of $14.5B-$15.5B and $0.89-$0.98 against the reported Q4 fiscal 2026 figures of $11.12B and $1.62; C14
against this
- The comparison is against a quarter management had itself flagged as abnormal, so the fall is arithmetic rather than deterioration; against Q4 fiscal 2025's $0.31 the same guide is a large increase.
- Part of the sequential revenue jump is a shipment management said slipped out of Q4 into Q1, so the two quarters are not independent.
What management did with the money
It raised money three ways in fiscal 2026: $4.47B of borrowing, $1.41B of shares and $4.23B of preferred stock, which takes about $301.9M a year ahead of ordinary holders. From fiscal 2024 to 2026 net income rose 93.5% but earnings per share only 69.8%, because the share count grew.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C12facthigh confidence
Financing supplied $9,478.8M in fiscal 2026: $4,468.8M of new borrowings, $1,406.8M of common stock and $4,230.8M of mandatory convertible preferred, each net of issuance costs.
C20estimatehigh confidence
The preferred takes about $301.9M a year ahead of the common, equal to 13.5% of fiscal 2026 net income.
derived4,312,500 preferred shares outstanding at 30 June 2026 at 7.00% of a $1,000 liquidation preference, against fiscal 2026 net income of $2,230.5M; C08, C19
against this
- The security is a mandatory convertible, so the dividend stops when it converts to common - at which point the cost moves from the income line to the share count rather than disappearing.
- The company may pay the dividend in shares rather than cash, which preserves cash and enlarges the same share count.
C18facthigh confidence
Net income rose 93.5% between fiscal 2024 and fiscal 2026 while diluted earnings per share rose 69.8%, as diluted shares went from 602.1 million to 697.3 million.
The price, and where we disagree
In short. Fair. It looks cheap, but for a reason: fast growth ties up huge sums in stock and customer credit. It becomes good value only once that growth starts paying for itself.
Share price
$39.85
close,
Price for each $1 of yearly profit
11.0
rivals' middle 30.1
The shares went nowhere over the past year while the median AI-server name rose 40.1%, and 16.19% of the tradable shares are sold short. On 20 October the company said its September quarter would bring in $18.5B to $19.5B at a 12.0% to 12.5% margin, well above the $14.5B to $15.5B and 10.4% to 10.8% it guided; these are unaudited estimates. The 3 November results test whether those numbers hold, and whether the business finally brings in cash rather than using it.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
C51factmedium confidence
The shares have returned minus 0.5% over 252 sessions while the median member of the AI servers and systems integration theme returned 40.1%.
C39factmedium confidence
Short interest was 16.19% of float at the 14 August 2026 settlement, and the analyst panel splits 9 buy, 14 hold and 2 sell.
C07management claimmedium confidence
Q1 fiscal 2027 gross margin was guided to 10.4%-10.8%; on 20 October 2026 the company's unaudited preliminary estimate for the quarter is 12.0%-12.5%, attributed to customer and product mix.
sourceQ4 fiscal 2026 earnings call transcriptprimarySuper Micro Computer Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1, preliminary…primary
against this
- The same management guided Q4 fiscal 2026 to 8.2%-8.4% and delivered 17.5%, so its gross margin guidance has recently been wrong by more than double in the company's favour.
- The figure exists only in the call. It is in neither the results release nor the 10-K, so a reader working from the filings alone would not know the reported 17.5% had been guided away.
- The 20 October figure is a preliminary estimate the company says its auditor has not reviewed and that may change; the final figure, and the call on 3 November, are the test.
- 2026-10-20editedThe company's 20 October preliminary update put Q1 gross margin at 12.0%-12.5% against the 10.4%-10.8% guide; claim now states both.
C14management claimmedium confidence
Fiscal 2027 revenue is guided to $65.0B-$72.0B, and Q1 to $14.5B-$15.5B with GAAP diluted earnings of $0.89-$0.98 on 745 million diluted shares; on 20 October 2026 the company's unaudited preliminary estimate for Q1 revenue is $18.5B-$19.5B, with no change to the full-year guide stated.
sourceFourth quarter and full fiscal year 2026 results release,…primarySuper Micro Computer Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1, preliminary…primary
against this
- The range implies 66.4% to 84.3% growth on a base that itself grew 77.8%, and after Q1 it requires $50.5B-$56.5B across three quarters, or $16.8B-$18.8B a quarter, against a best-ever quarter of $12.68B.
- The same guidance framework put Q4 fiscal 2026 revenue at $11.0B-$12.5B and the company landed near the low end at $11.12B, so the revenue guide has recently been optimistic even where the margin guide was pessimistic.
- The preliminary Q1 estimate is unaudited and the release gives no update to fiscal 2027 guidance or earnings per share; it also says nothing about cash, inventory or financing.
- 2026-10-20editedThe 20 October preliminary update put Q1 revenue at $18.5B-$19.5B against the $14.5B-$15.5B guide; claim now states both.
C09facthigh confidence
Operating activities used $6,809.9M of cash in fiscal 2026, against net income of $2,230.5M.
The betSafe, little upside
If it works
1.3×
from today's value, at the stated multiple
If it fails
keep 89%
of today's market value: the rest of the company, less its debt
How we read the multiple
Buyers pay about 11 times Super Micro's yearly profit and about 9 times next year's forecast. The rivals its own report names cost about 30 times.
That is cheap for sales guided to $65B to $72B next year. The catch is cash:
- This year each $1 of sales tied up about 43 cents in stock and unpaid customer bills.
- At that rate the growth ties up another $11.1B to $14.1B.
- It keeps only about 11 cents of gross profit per dollar of sales to fund that.
Against its own history. Close to its own normal on profit and cheaper on sales: the market has always priced it as an assembler, and still does.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C40estimatemedium confidence
At $39.85 the shares trade at 12.2 times fiscal 2026 reported diluted earnings and about 9.2 times the $4.34 consensus for fiscal 2027.
derivedthe closing price in the frozen pack over reported diluted earnings per share of $3.26 from the fiscal 2026 statements, and over the fiscal 2027 consensus of $4.33842 from ten analysts in the pack; C01, C18
against this
- The consensus of $4.34 sits below the earnings the company's own guidance implies, and rests on ten contributors; a panel that small can move a long way on one revision.
- The vendor's own trailing price-to-earnings of 11.0 is struck on the company's non-GAAP figure of $3.63 rather than the reported $3.26, so a screen shows the stock cheaper than the filed accounts do.
- Neither multiple carries the $8.72B of debt or the $4.23B of preferred that funded the working capital; on enterprise value the same business is priced at 0.80 times sales rather than the 0.64 the vendor reports.
C15estimatemedium confidence
At fiscal 2026's working-capital intensity of 42.9% of sales, revenue of $65B-$72B would tie up a further $11.1B-$14.1B in inventory and receivables net of payables.
derivedinventories plus receivables less payables at 30 June 2026 ($16.77B) divided by fiscal 2026 net sales, applied to each end of the fiscal 2027 guide and netted against the current balance; C01, C10, C14
against this
- It assumes intensity is unchanged, and management has said the cash conversion cycle will improve because contract terms on the current book are tighter. If intensity fell to fiscal 2025's 25.5% of sales the requirement would disappear entirely and the balance sheet would release cash.
- The company carries $7.52B of cash, a $2.0B revolving facility with JP Morgan and $1.765B of Taiwan facilities, so a shortfall at the low end of the guide is fundable without new equity even on unchanged intensity.
- $943.4M of the deferred revenue increase is non-refundable customer prepayment, which is customers funding the working capital directly and is the mechanism by which the intensity could fall.
C14management claimmedium confidence
Fiscal 2027 revenue is guided to $65.0B-$72.0B, and Q1 to $14.5B-$15.5B with GAAP diluted earnings of $0.89-$0.98 on 745 million diluted shares; on 20 October 2026 the company's unaudited preliminary estimate for Q1 revenue is $18.5B-$19.5B, with no change to the full-year guide stated.
sourceFourth quarter and full fiscal year 2026 results release,…primarySuper Micro Computer Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1, preliminary…primary
against this
- The range implies 66.4% to 84.3% growth on a base that itself grew 77.8%, and after Q1 it requires $50.5B-$56.5B across three quarters, or $16.8B-$18.8B a quarter, against a best-ever quarter of $12.68B.
- The same guidance framework put Q4 fiscal 2026 revenue at $11.0B-$12.5B and the company landed near the low end at $11.12B, so the revenue guide has recently been optimistic even where the margin guide was pessimistic.
- The preliminary Q1 estimate is unaudited and the release gives no update to fiscal 2027 guidance or earnings per share; it also says nothing about cash, inventory or financing.
- 2026-10-20editedThe 20 October preliminary update put Q1 revenue at $18.5B-$19.5B against the $14.5B-$15.5B guide; claim now states both.
C41factmedium confidence
Against the competitor cohort its own annual report names, Super Micro's fiscal 2026 gross margin of 10.8% is the lowest - Dell reports 19.8% and Hewlett Packard Enterprise 36.0% - and its earnings multiple is the cheapest.
Priced against its rivals
The competitors its own annual report names, each confirmed against the rival's filing. Measured on price for each $1 of yearly profit, cheapest first:
| Ticker | Company | price for each $1 of yearly profit |
|---|---|---|
| SMCI | Super Micro Computer | 11.0× |
| HPE | Hewlett Packard Enterprise | 28.6× |
| DELL | Dell Technologies | 31.7× |
| CSCO | Cisco Systems not in the median | 32.6× |
The middle of the other 2 is 30.1. Cisco Systems, Inc. competes with it in one product line inside a much bigger company, so its price says little about this business and it is not counted in the middle. Super Micro Computer, Inc. is cheapest of 3.
Rivals' figures come from a data provider, so read the spread of the group rather than any single pair.
The cheapest of the rivals its own report names, and also the thinnest margin, so the discount is this company's own and has a reason.
Private or foreign rivals that cannot be priced: Lenovo Group Limited, Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., Ltd. (Foxconn), Quanta Computer Inc., Wiwynn Corporation.
The bet: what it pays if it works
The bet is on DCBBS alone: the cooling, power, switches and software Supermicro now sells with its racks as one data hall. It reports no sales or profit for it; management aims for a fifth of gross profit.
The server business, valued at last year's earnings, covers most of today's price, so buyers pay little for the catalogue. Even if it reaches management's goal, the whole company is worth only a little more than today.
If it never earns more than bare servers, shareholders keep the server business.
| Data Center Building Block Solutions (DCBBS) earnings in two to three years | Percentage points of gross profit needed | At the stated multiple |
|---|---|---|
| $192.00M | about 5 at 100% kept | 1.0× |
| $768.00M (the big win) | about 20 at 100% kept | 1.3× |
| $1.15B | about 30 at 100% kept | 1.4× |
To pay 2× (a Fair bet) it would need about $2.38B of Data Center Building Block Solutions (DCBBS) earnings (about 62 percentage points of gross profit); to pay 5× (a Cheap bet), about $8.85B of Data Center Building Block Solutions (DCBBS) earnings (about 231 percentage points of gross profit), at the same multiple.
Each row is Data Center Building Block Solutions (DCBBS) alone, plus the rest of the company (Server and storage systems) counted at about $23.14B.
The steps it has to take
- Done DCBBS catalogue shipping: cooling, power shelves, switches and management software
- In progress Proactive service software attached to DCBBS installations due 2026-12
- Not started Super Micro discloses DCBBS revenue or gross profit due 2027-08
- Not started DCBBS supplies about a fifth of gross profit due 2027-08
The detail behind the label
Rating
Expensive
the big win's payoff against the 2× and 5× lines
Cheap bet at about
$9.97
75% below the price (close, )
The option
3.4×
what Data Center Building Block Solutions (DCBBS) is worth if it works, against what the price pays for it
The evidence under this - 6 claims
C58management claimlow confidence
On the Q4 fiscal 2026 call the chief executive said the DCBBS product line is 'getting mature', that Super Micro is shipping 'more and more DCBBS hardware and also software service and some switch', and that DCBBS 'will soon contribute significant net income'; asked how far DCBBS had reached the roughly 20% of gross profit previously guided for the year, he gave no figure and said '20% should be not far away'.
against this
- The 10-K reports one operating segment and no revenue or gross profit for DCBBS (C46), so the 20% goal cannot be checked against anything filed.
- Services and software, the part of DCBBS that would recur, were 1.38% of fiscal 2026 sales and a smaller share than in either prior year (C31).
C59estimatelow confidence
Each percentage point of fiscal 2027 gross profit that DCBBS supplies is worth about $38M of yearly earnings: the guided $65B-$72B of revenue at the guided 10.6% gross margin is about $7.26B of gross profit, and fiscal 2026 turned 52.9% of its gross profit into net income.
derivedthe midpoint of the fiscal 2027 revenue guide (C14) at the midpoint of the Q1 gross-margin guide (C07); fiscal 2026 net income of $2,230.5M (C08) over gross profit of 10.8% of $39,063.1M (C01, C02)
against this
Management says DCBBS carries a better margin than bare servers, so the company-wide conversion may understate what a point of DCBBS gross profit earns; the gross profit split is not disclosed either way (C46).
C08facthigh confidence
Q4 fiscal 2026 net income of $1,178.2M was 52.8% of the $2,230.5M earned in the whole of fiscal 2026.
C20estimatehigh confidence
The preferred takes about $301.9M a year ahead of the common, equal to 13.5% of fiscal 2026 net income.
derived4,312,500 preferred shares outstanding at 30 June 2026 at 7.00% of a $1,000 liquidation preference, against fiscal 2026 net income of $2,230.5M; C08, C19
against this
- The security is a mandatory convertible, so the dividend stops when it converts to common - at which point the cost moves from the income line to the share count rather than disappearing.
- The company may pay the dividend in shares rather than cash, which preserves cash and enlarges the same share count.
C40estimatemedium confidence
At $39.85 the shares trade at 12.2 times fiscal 2026 reported diluted earnings and about 9.2 times the $4.34 consensus for fiscal 2027.
derivedthe closing price in the frozen pack over reported diluted earnings per share of $3.26 from the fiscal 2026 statements, and over the fiscal 2027 consensus of $4.33842 from ten analysts in the pack; C01, C18
against this
- The consensus of $4.34 sits below the earnings the company's own guidance implies, and rests on ten contributors; a panel that small can move a long way on one revision.
- The vendor's own trailing price-to-earnings of 11.0 is struck on the company's non-GAAP figure of $3.63 rather than the reported $3.26, so a screen shows the stock cheaper than the filed accounts do.
- Neither multiple carries the $8.72B of debt or the $4.23B of preferred that funded the working capital; on enterprise value the same business is priced at 0.80 times sales rather than the 0.64 the vendor reports.
C46facthigh confidence
Super Micro operates in one operating segment and reports no business-segment split.
Where we disagree with the market
The market believes
A commodity box assembler whose one good quarter was a fluke, so the low price is deserved.
We believe
The market has the mechanism right, but the cheapness is measured on earnings half of which came from that one quarter.
So the discount is smaller than it looks, and the evidence was said only on the call, not printed in the results.
The case against us: if operating cash flow turns positive this year, with stock levels falling and the margin above 11%, on no new shares, the business is funding itself and the market is too gloomy.
What analysts say, and the evidence
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C08facthigh confidence
Q4 fiscal 2026 net income of $1,178.2M was 52.8% of the $2,230.5M earned in the whole of fiscal 2026.
C06management claimmedium confidence
Management attributed about three-quarters of the Q4 margin improvement to mix and about a quarter to tariffs and inventory write-downs, calling the excess-and-obsolete result a nonrecurring event.
against this
- The split was put to the chief financial officer by an analyst, who did the arithmetic himself ('about $700 million for mix and $230 million from the other bucket on my math'); management neither confirmed the figures nor published its own decomposition anywhere in the release or the 10-K.
- The company said it booked no tariff rebate and is 'actively pursuing refunds', so the tariff benefit in the quarter is a cost that did not arise rather than income received - which makes its reversal depend on trade policy rather than on the company.
C07management claimmedium confidence
Q1 fiscal 2027 gross margin was guided to 10.4%-10.8%; on 20 October 2026 the company's unaudited preliminary estimate for the quarter is 12.0%-12.5%, attributed to customer and product mix.
sourceQ4 fiscal 2026 earnings call transcriptprimarySuper Micro Computer Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1, preliminary…primary
against this
- The same management guided Q4 fiscal 2026 to 8.2%-8.4% and delivered 17.5%, so its gross margin guidance has recently been wrong by more than double in the company's favour.
- The figure exists only in the call. It is in neither the results release nor the 10-K, so a reader working from the filings alone would not know the reported 17.5% had been guided away.
- The 20 October figure is a preliminary estimate the company says its auditor has not reviewed and that may change; the final figure, and the call on 3 November, are the test.
- 2026-10-20editedThe company's 20 October preliminary update put Q1 gross margin at 12.0%-12.5% against the 10.4%-10.8% guide; claim now states both.
C15estimatemedium confidence
At fiscal 2026's working-capital intensity of 42.9% of sales, revenue of $65B-$72B would tie up a further $11.1B-$14.1B in inventory and receivables net of payables.
derivedinventories plus receivables less payables at 30 June 2026 ($16.77B) divided by fiscal 2026 net sales, applied to each end of the fiscal 2027 guide and netted against the current balance; C01, C10, C14
against this
- It assumes intensity is unchanged, and management has said the cash conversion cycle will improve because contract terms on the current book are tighter. If intensity fell to fiscal 2025's 25.5% of sales the requirement would disappear entirely and the balance sheet would release cash.
- The company carries $7.52B of cash, a $2.0B revolving facility with JP Morgan and $1.765B of Taiwan facilities, so a shortfall at the low end of the guide is fundable without new equity even on unchanged intensity.
- $943.4M of the deferred revenue increase is non-refundable customer prepayment, which is customers funding the working capital directly and is the mechanism by which the intensity could fall.
What could go wrong, and how we would know
The risks
- The funding runs short. Growth to the guided range could tie up $11.1B to $14.1B more cash; another share sale would dilute holders again.
- The margin was a one-off. June's 17.5% margin is guided back to 10.4% to 10.8% in the next quarter.
- One supplier sets the pace. A single supplier provided 63.1% of purchases, and its product cadence is Supermicro's timetable.
- Three customers owe half. Three unnamed customers were 23.0%, 17.1% and 12.5% of what it was owed in June.
- Family suppliers. Some parts come from firms run by the chief executive's brothers, whose sales go mostly to Supermicro.
The evidence under this - 7 claims
C15estimatemedium confidence
At fiscal 2026's working-capital intensity of 42.9% of sales, revenue of $65B-$72B would tie up a further $11.1B-$14.1B in inventory and receivables net of payables.
derivedinventories plus receivables less payables at 30 June 2026 ($16.77B) divided by fiscal 2026 net sales, applied to each end of the fiscal 2027 guide and netted against the current balance; C01, C10, C14
against this
- It assumes intensity is unchanged, and management has said the cash conversion cycle will improve because contract terms on the current book are tighter. If intensity fell to fiscal 2025's 25.5% of sales the requirement would disappear entirely and the balance sheet would release cash.
- The company carries $7.52B of cash, a $2.0B revolving facility with JP Morgan and $1.765B of Taiwan facilities, so a shortfall at the low end of the guide is fundable without new equity even on unchanged intensity.
- $943.4M of the deferred revenue increase is non-refundable customer prepayment, which is customers funding the working capital directly and is the mechanism by which the intensity could fall.
C17management claimlow confidence
The chief executive said $65B-$72B of revenue can be funded from current cash flow, and that growing to $80B or beyond may require more.
against this
- The company raised $9.48B in fiscal 2026 to fund $39.06B of revenue, and the statement implies $65B-$72B needs nothing further - which requires the working-capital intensity that produced a $6.81B outflow to fall sharply, unstated and unquantified.
- It is a statement about a threshold no filing has tested; the company has never operated at that revenue level.
C05facthigh confidence
Q4 fiscal 2026 gross margin was guided to 8.2%-8.4% and reported at 17.5%.
C07management claimmedium confidence
Q1 fiscal 2027 gross margin was guided to 10.4%-10.8%; on 20 October 2026 the company's unaudited preliminary estimate for the quarter is 12.0%-12.5%, attributed to customer and product mix.
sourceQ4 fiscal 2026 earnings call transcriptprimarySuper Micro Computer Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1, preliminary…primary
against this
- The same management guided Q4 fiscal 2026 to 8.2%-8.4% and delivered 17.5%, so its gross margin guidance has recently been wrong by more than double in the company's favour.
- The figure exists only in the call. It is in neither the results release nor the 10-K, so a reader working from the filings alone would not know the reported 17.5% had been guided away.
- The 20 October figure is a preliminary estimate the company says its auditor has not reviewed and that may change; the final figure, and the call on 3 November, are the test.
- 2026-10-20editedThe company's 20 October preliminary update put Q1 gross margin at 12.0%-12.5% against the 10.4%-10.8% guide; claim now states both.
C03facthigh confidence
One supplier accounted for 63.1% of total purchases in fiscal 2026.
C32facthigh confidence
One customer was 10% or more of net sales in fiscal 2026, and three customers were 23.0%, 17.1% and 12.5% of receivables at 30 June 2026.
C48facthigh confidence
Purchases from Ablecom and Compuware, related parties whose principals are the chief executive's brothers, were 2.1% of cost of sales in fiscal 2026, and sales to Super Micro are a majority of both companies' net sales.
What we still do not know
- Whether the cash tied up in stock and unpaid bills comes back. Management says it will and gives no number.
- How firm the $60B of orders is. The company itself says some may be cancelled.
- Who its largest customers are. None is named.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
C16management claimlow confidence
Management expects the cash conversion cycle to improve on tightened contract terms with new and existing customers, and gave no figure for it.
against this
- Asked directly whether fiscal 2027 growth would be self-funded from operating cash flow or would need incremental external financing, the chief financial officer did not answer either way; he said the balance sheet was strong and that the company would use it.
- The cycle lengthened by about 69 days in the year just reported, so the claim is a reversal of the immediate trend rather than an extension of it.
C11estimatemedium confidence
Inventory days rose from about 87 to about 135 and the cash conversion cycle from about 100 days to about 169 days over fiscal 2026.
derivedinventories, receivables and payables from the fiscal 2026 balance sheet over cost of sales and net sales from the same filing, annualised at 365 days; C01, C02, C10
against this
- Year-end balances are a point in time, and fiscal 2026's quarters were extremely uneven - $5.02B of revenue in Q1 against $12.68B in Q2 - so a cycle struck on the closing balance sheet against the full-year cost base overstates the days if the year-end inventory was staged for a Q1 fiscal 2027 shipment management said had slipped out of Q4.
- Management says contract terms on the current order book are tighter than on the book that produced these balances, which if true would shorten the cycle without any operational change.
C28management claimlow confidence
Management said more than $60B of new orders were received in Q4 fiscal 2026 and that backlog rose to record levels entering fiscal 2027.
sourceFourth quarter and full fiscal year 2026 results release,…primaryPreliminary business update for Q4 fiscal 2026, 8-K Exhibit…primary
against this
- The company's own 21 July release says of the same orders that 'some of which may not constitute firm commitments and may be subject to cancellation or delays and remain subject to fulfillment of the applicable terms and conditions by both parties'.
- No figure for the backlog is given anywhere, and the 10-K filed six weeks later does not use the word - so the record cannot be measured, compared with the prior year, or checked against conversion.
- Dell, a direct competitor, discloses backlog inside remaining performance obligations to the extent orders are non-cancelable, which shows the disclosure is available to a company that wants to make it.
C29facthigh confidence
The company's own words on the $60B of orders are that some may not constitute firm commitments and may be subject to cancellation or delays.
C32facthigh confidence
One customer was 10% or more of net sales in fiscal 2026, and three customers were 23.0%, 17.1% and 12.5% of receivables at 30 June 2026.
What would change our view
- Neutral→AttractiveThe growth funds itself at a margin that holds
It needs all of:
- ○Gross margin stays at 10% or more through fiscal 2027, with revenue guidance at $65B or more.checked at the next results, due by 3 Nov
- ○The business brings in cash from operations during fiscal 2027, with no new share sale needed to fund stock and customer credit.checked at the next results, due by 3 Nov
- Neutral→UnattractiveThe margin breaks or the funding does
It needs any of:
- ○Gross margin falls below 10% for two quarters running in fiscal 2027, or revenue guidance is cut below $65B.checked at the next results, due by 3 Nov
- ○Another share sale is needed this fiscal year to fund day-to-day cash, or its share of world server sales falls below 5% for two quarters.watched as it happens
We would also be wrong if
- Operating cash flow stays negative all through fiscal 2027.
What is coming
- 3 November 2026 Q1 fiscal 2027 results: Gross margin against the guided 10.4%-10.8%, whether operating cash flow turns positive, inventory days against 135, and whether the $65B-$72B year guide holds.
Every dated event ahead
- 3 November 2026 Q1 fiscal 2027 results: Gross margin against the guided 10.4%-10.8%, whether operating cash flow turns positive, inventory days against 135, and whether the $65B-$72B year guide holds.
- 14 November 2026 Sale restriction on the CEO's 2023 award shares ends: Whether the founder sells option shares once he may; selling outside a pre-set plan would weaken the alignment his 13.4% stake implies.
- February 2027 Q2 fiscal 2027 results: Whether the second half starts to carry the $50.5B-$56.5B the year guide needs after Q1, and whether more financing arrives with it.
Since we wrote this
Written
9 Sep
Price the thesis read
$39.85
9 Sep
- 20 OctNewsSuper Micro says September quarter beat its own guidePreliminary revenue and margin came in well above guidance, but cash and funding, which decide the view, were not addressed.
- 15 OctNewsSuper Micro names a new chief financial officerMark Long replaced David Weigand on 14 October; the filing gives no reason, so the case and the 3 November test stand.
- 5 OctThesis reviewThe long case now sits under the verdictAfter the five-name pilot, the owner asked for the long case on every thesis.
- 4 OctThesis reviewOwner's checklist: revenue streams, cost of growth, management, catalystsThe owner's checklist found the method silent on who runs the company, what growth costs, where the money comes from and what is dated ahead; this pass fills those four blocks from the proxy and filings.
- 9 SepThesis writtenNeutral, medium convictionRevenue up 77.8% at a low price, but the growth used $6.81B of cash and half the year's profit came from one quarter.
Also checked 6 times with nothing new to act on.
Sources 25
Where this came from
Sources - 25
Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.
- S01primarycompany filing2026-08-31the audited statements, supplier and customer concentration, the related-party arrangements, the export-control investigation, the segment answer, and the absence of any backlog disclosurebacksC01C02C03C09C10C18C25C27C30C31C32C36C37C41C44C46C48C49C52C53C57
- S02primarycompany filing2026-08-11the quarterly income statement and cash flow statement, the fiscal 2027 revenue guide, the Q1 guide with its 745 million diluted share count, and the preferred dividend linebacksC01C02C05C08C09C12C14C28C38
- S03primarytranscript2026-08-11Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings call transcriptthe Q1 gross margin guide of 10.4% to 10.8%, management's split of the Q4 margin between mix and one-offs, the AI mix by quarter, and nine analyst questions including two on working capital and inventory riskbacksC06C07C16C17C50C58
- S04primarycompany filing2026-07-21the original Q4 gross margin guidance of 8.2% to 8.4%, and the company's own characterisation of the $60 billion of ordersbacksC05C28C29
- S05primarycompany filing2026-06-11the $27.50 offering price, the concurrent preferred and at-the-market offerings, and the stated use of proceeds against roughly $39 billion of orders from more than 20 customersbacksC13
- S06primarycompany filing2026-08-05the declared dividend per preferred share, which fixes the annual cost of the preferred ahead of the commonbacksC19
- S07primarycompany filing2026-03-16a competitor's own AI-server revenue and segment operating margin, and its treatment of non-cancelable manufacturing orders as disclosed backlogbacksC25C26C41
- S08primarycompany filing2026-02-25the supplier's own gross margin and Compute & Networking revenue, and its statement that it delivers its platform as rack-scale systemsbacksC04C33
- S09primarycompany filing2025-12-18confirmation that Server is a reportable segment selling the same product to the same buyer, for the cohort testbacksC41
- S10primarycompany filing2026-09-02that Cisco reports servers only inside its Networking product category and never sizes them, which is why it sits beside the cohort rather than in itread, but no claim rests on it
- S11primaryindustry data2026-06-11an independent measurement of who is actually winning share, the size of the market, and the fact that unit growth was 3.3% while spending grew 30.7%
The worldwide server market reached $122.6 billion in vendor revenue in the first quarter of 2026, growing 30.4% year over year... GPU accelerated servers generated $68.9 billion (+24.8% YoY), representing 56.2% of total market revenue... 1. Dell Technologies $20,280.8M 16.5% $5,893.3M 6.3% +244.1% 2. Super Micro $9,331.0M 7.6% $4,075.8M 4.3% +128.9% ... ODM Direct $61,537.9M 50.2% $60,278.9M 64.1% +2.1% ... Total $122,617.8M 100.0% $94,066.4M 100.0% +30.4%. Source: IDC Worldwide Quarterly Server Tracker, June 11, 2026... the worldwide server market delivered 30.7% spending growth in the first quarter of 2026 while unit growth was modest at 3.3% year over year.
backsC22C24C42 - S12primaryindustry data2025-12-11the quarter in which SMCI's revenue fell while the market grew 61.1%, and the ODM Direct share peak of 59.4%
Supermicro reached the second place with 4.0% revenue share even though declining 13.2% compared to 2024Q3... 2. Super Micro $4,498.11 4.0% $5,179.34 7.4% -13.2% ... ODM Direct $66,790.83 59.4% $31,473.73 45.1% 112.2% ... Total $112,444.59 100.0% $69,786.29 100.0% 61.1%. Source: IDC Worldwide Quarterly Server Tracker, December 11, 2025.
backsC23 - S13primarygovernment data2026-01-13the driver's rate measured by somebody with no stake in the server market
EIA expects U.S. electricity use to grow by 1% this year and 3% in 2027. This increase would mark the first time since 2007 that power demand has risen for four years in a row and the strongest four-year growth period since 2000. The driving factor behind this surge is increasing demand from large computing centers. FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE January 13, 2026.
backsC43 - S14primaryother2025-11-19the supplier publishing the rack layout and wiring of the thing SMCI says it differentiates on
The RA also includes details regarding the SU design and specifics of InfiniBand, NVLink network, Ethernet fabric topologies, storage system specifications, recommended rack layouts, and wiring guidelines.
backsC34 - S15primaryvendor data2026-09-09Research pack, frozen at content/SMCI/research-pack.jsonprice, the 20-day range, 252-day returns against the theme, the analyst split, FINRA short interest, insider filings and the filed competitor cohort's multiplesbacksC39C41C51
- S16primarycompany filing2026-09-08the transaction codes, the Rule 10b5-1 plan date, and the indirect ownership nature that shows the two September Form 4s report one block twicebacksC45
- S17primarycompany filing2026-09-08the matching share counts, prices and 'By Spouse' / 'By Joint Account w/ Spouse' ownership tagsbacksC45
- S18primarycompany release2026-08-25the counterparty's own words on the partnership, and the absence of any volume, term or purchase commitment in them
SAN JOSE, Calif., Aug 25, 2026 - ... Today, Cisco (Nasdaq: CSCO) is expanding the Secure AI Factory with NVIDIA through a partnership with Supermicro... Through this new partnership, Cisco will offer Supermicro liquid- and air-cooled systems, giving customers access to rack-scale and dense GPU systems - validated and sold as part of the broader Cisco AI infrastructure portfolio.
backsC35 - S19primarygovernment data2026-05-19the long-run installed-base trajectory for the thing SMCI builds, measured outside the industry
Across all cases, servers alone accounted for an estimated 7% of commercial sector electricity consumption in 2025. Data center server electricity use grows to 22%-33% of commercial building electricity use by 2050 across our cases.
read, but no claim rests on it - S20secondarynews2026-08-24Reuters: Taiwan indicts 9 over alleged illegal export of AI servers to Chinathat an export-control matter remains live with a foreign prosecutor after the company's own board review closedread, but no claim rests on it
- S21primarycompany filing2026-06-09the related-party disclosure as it stood before the fiscal 2026 10-K, including the three-year series of Ablecom and Compuware purchases and the chief executive's personal borrowing from his brother's spousebacksC48
- S22primarycompany filing2026-03-03beneficial ownership as of January 31, 2026, director and executive officer biographies, the 2021 and 2023 CEO Performance Awards and their goal tables, the CEO's $1 salary and no-bonus undertaking, the other officers' KPI programme and the sale restriction on award sharesbacksC54C55C56
- S23primarycompany filing2026-02-13a data-centre cooling and power maker describing the same plant DCBBS sells around the rack, from chillers to coolant distribution unitsbacksC60
- S24primarycompany filing2026-10-15the appointment of Mark Long as chief financial officer effective October 14, 2026, David Weigand ceasing in that role, Long's background and his employment termsbacksC54
- S25primarycompany filing2026-10-20preliminary unaudited Q1 fiscal 2027 revenue of $18.5B-$19.5B against guidance of $14.5B-$15.5B, gross margin of 12.0%-12.5% against 10.4%-10.8%, and the November 3 call date
Revenues for the first quarter of fiscal year 2027 are estimated to be in the range of $18.5 billion to $19.5 billion versus guidance of $14.5 billion to $15.5 billion
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