AST SpaceMobile
A company building giant satellites that act as cell towers in the sky, so an ordinary phone can get mobile internet where no tower reaches.
Our viewUnattractive Medium conviction
The scores
The profile · 1-4
Growthn/a ↑
The service the price pays for has earned nothing; today's gateway and test revenue grew fast but is near pass-through and not the engine.
Business quality2/4 ↓
Two carriers' spectrum leases and an FCC licence are real but not exclusive; SpaceX already ships to millions of phones and is buying spectrum.
Financial position2/4 →
About 18 months of cash at the H1 2026 pace and no service revenue before 2027; management says fully funded, yet it raised every year.
Execution record2/4 ↓
The launch target moved later in each of the last three plans and BB7 was lost; revenue guidance has held, keeping this above Unreliable.
Per share capture2/4 ↓
Shares rose 14.5% in a year and $3.70B of convertibles sit above the price; a stated fully funded plan stops it reading Diluted away.
Potential2/4 →
About 312 million uncovered people and half of US land bound a real market, but launches, carrier pricing and beating SpaceX must all go right.
Risk profile2/4 →
The 2027 start rests on two US carriers, launches partly on a rival's rockets, and the L-band deal on one pending FCC decision.
Valuation1/4 ↑
About 23 times a first-year revenue goal for service not yet started assumes a direct-to-phone business no operator has yet built.
Evidence quality3/4 →
Filings, the FCC, the ITU and SpaceX's own prospectus carry the facts, but the timetable and the $1B goal are graded management claims.
The bet · 2-3 years
Priced for success0.9×
If it works 0.9× · if it fails you keep about 0%.
The Verdict
We rate AST SpaceMobile unattractive. It builds giant satellites so an ordinary phone can get mobile internet from space, with AT&T and Verizon lending their airwaves, but the service has not started and the date for the satellites it needs keeps slipping, so the business is weak. Meanwhile SpaceX already reaches millions of phones. The price assumes AST's network works on time and wins, so it is stretched. As a bet it is fragile: about today's price even if it works, little or nothing left if it fails, because the debt is paid first. The technology is real; the buyer has options.
The long casePhones already in people's pockets can connect to satellites where towers do not reach; if AST's network launches on time, carriers will pay to fill their gaps.
The evidence under this - 9 claims
C01facthigh confidence
AST is building a low-orbit constellation of large satellites that connect directly to ordinary, unmodified 2G, 4G and 5G phones using carrier spectrum; the service has not launched and has earned no service revenue.
C05facthigh confidence
Revenue was $46.3M in H1 2026, $37.8M of it gateway equipment and $8.4M government services, after $70.9M in FY2025; none of it came from the phone service.
C08facthigh confidence
The launch target slipped three times in a year: over 60 Block 2 satellites in 2025 through 2026 (August 2025), 45 to 60 by end of 2026 (March 2026), about 45 by end of 2026 (May 2026), then about 45 in early 2027 (July 2026).
C27facthigh confidence
SpaceX's own prospectus says about 650 satellites already give light data, texts and app calls to about 7.4 million phones a month across about 30 countries, and names AST as a competitor.
against this
- SpaceX reports no Starlink Mobile revenue separately, so how many of those devices pay is unknown (S18).
- T-Mobile warns its satellite data is limited and some apps may not work (S21).
C18estimatehigh confidence
At the $58.86 close on 2026-09-30 the 389.2M shares of all classes are worth about $22.9B, and with June-30 net debt of $249M the whole company is valued at about $23.2B, roughly 201 times the $115.3M of trailing revenue.
derivedClose from the pack (S16); share counts from the 10-Q cover (S02), Class B and C counted because they exchange one-for-one into Class A; debt of $2.97B less $2.29B cash and $0.43B restricted cash (S02); trailing revenue is Q3 2025 to Q2 2026 from the filings.
against this
- The vendor puts company value at $24.66B and the multiple at 213.8 times; the gap is share count and cash definition, and it does not change the reading.
- Counting Class A alone values the equity at $17.6B, but Class B and C holders own the same economic interest through the operating company.
C19inferencemedium confidence
At about $23.2B the price assumes service starts in 2027, revenue reaches about the $1B management targets within a year and keeps compounding for years, which no satellite-to-phone operator has yet shown.
derivedC18 for the value; C14 for the target; C27, C28 and C31 for what rivals earn or charge; the cohort's two operating satellite companies trade at a fraction of the multiple (S16).
against this
- SpaceX reaching about 7.4 million phones a month shows demand for the service exists (C27).
- Government work, including a possible J-LEO grant, could carry half the first-year target without any carrier revenue (C14, C40).
- Amazon agreed to pay $90 a share for Globalstar, whose main line is satellite service to iPhones, so strategic buyers pay up for this asset class (C31).
C28facthigh confidence
T-Mobile's T-Satellite on SpaceX launched in July 2025, added app data in October 2025, and costs $10 a month, free on its best plans and open to AT&T and Verizon customers.
C14management claimlow confidence
Management says revenue should approach $1B in the first year of commercial service, with as much as half from government, and that service revenue starts when service starts next year.
against this
- No carrier contract discloses a price, volume or revenue-share percentage (C21), so the commercial half cannot be built from filed terms.
- Only 6.6% of the $1.2B of signed contracts is due within a year (C12).
- The only published US retail price for satellite-to-phone service is $10 a month, and T-Mobile includes it free in its best plans (C28).
C16facthigh confidence
About $3.70B of convertible notes are outstanding; all but $3.5M of them convert at $72.07 to $116.30 a share, above the $58.86 close.
The company
Phones lose signal wherever there is no tower: on farms, at sea, in mountains. AST's answer is a satellite with an antenna about 2,400 square feet across, big enough to hear an ordinary phone from orbit. The phone thinks it is talking to its own carrier.
The buyers are phone carriers, which resell the service to their customers. Without it a carrier must build towers that do not pay, or leave the dead zone. A test satellite reached 98.9 Mbps to a normal phone.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C01facthigh confidence
AST is building a low-orbit constellation of large satellites that connect directly to ordinary, unmodified 2G, 4G and 5G phones using carrier spectrum; the service has not launched and has earned no service revenue.
C02facthigh confidence
A Block 2 BlueBird carries a phased-array antenna of about 2,400 square feet, more than three times a Block 1's; BB6, the first, was deployed in orbit in February 2026.
C03management claimmedium confidence
Management says a Block 1 satellite reached 98.9 Mbps peak to an unmodified phone and that Block 2, with its own chip, should nearly double that.
against this
- Peak speed in a test is not capacity shared across a beam full of users; no figure for sustained per-user throughput has been published.
- SpaceX says its V2 satellites will reach up to 150 Mbit/s from mid-2027, so the speed lead is a timing lead (S39).
C04facthigh confidence
AST sells through carriers on a revenue-share model: carriers market the service to their own customers, while today's revenue is gateway equipment sold to carriers and test and milestone work for the US government.
How it makes money
The plan is a revenue share: the carrier charges its customer for coverage from space and passes AST a cut, at a rate no filing discloses.
That has not started. Today's $46.3M of H1 2026 revenue is ground stations sold to carriers, at almost no profit, and test work for the US government.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C04facthigh confidence
AST sells through carriers on a revenue-share model: carriers market the service to their own customers, while today's revenue is gateway equipment sold to carriers and test and milestone work for the US government.
C05facthigh confidence
Revenue was $46.3M in H1 2026, $37.8M of it gateway equipment and $8.4M government services, after $70.9M in FY2025; none of it came from the phone service.
C06facthigh confidence
Gateway equipment earns almost nothing: Q2 2026 product revenue was $24.4M against $22.4M of product cost, and $9.8M of H1 product revenue was sold to SatCo, AST's 50/50 venture with Vodafone.
C41factmedium confidence
US government work signed so far is small: a $43.0M Space Development Agency test contract through a prime, about $30.0M direct, an unfunded missile-defence framework award, and 'over $125 million' of 2026 awards the company has not itemised.
Where the money comes from, stream by stream
| Stream | Share of sales (H1 2026) | How it earns it |
|---|---|---|
| Gateway equipment (products) | 81.8% | Ground stations and software sold to carriers to link the satellites to their networks, at almost no margin; some sold to SatCo, AST's Vodafone venture. |
| Government services | 18.2% | Test and milestone work for US government agencies, directly or through prime contractors. |
| SpaceMobile service (carrier revenue share) | 0% | The planned business: a cut of what carriers charge their customers for coverage from space; nothing recognised until the network is live. |
Who runs it
Abel Avellan founded AST in 2017 and runs it; he built and sold a satellite company before. He owns about a fifth of the shares but, through a special share class, about seven in ten votes, so outside shareholders cannot outvote him. He takes no salary; his share awards paid on sales, spectrum deals and keeping cash, and paid nothing on getting satellites into orbit on time, which he missed.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C56facthigh confidence
Abel Avellan founded AST in 2017 and has been chairman and chief executive of the listed company since April 2021, after founding EMC and selling it for $550.0M in 2016; Andrew Johnson has been CFO since June 2024 and Scott Wisniewski president since June 2024 and chief strategy officer since 2021.
C54facthigh confidence
At April 22, 2026 directors and executive officers as a group held 1.0% of Class A shares and 71.9% of the combined vote; Abel Avellan holds all 78,163,078 Class C shares, about 20% of all shares and 71.6% of the vote, at up to ten votes a share until the Sunset Date.
C55facthigh confidence
Avellan takes no salary and no cash bonus; his 2025 PSUs paid on four equal goals: $75M of 2025 revenue (95% earned on $70.9M), satellites in orbit by February 2026 (0%), closing and financing spectrum deals and keeping liquid assets (100% each). The other officers' cash bonus paid on the same revenue goal.
against this
- The president's PSUs paid in full on capital raised and the share price's full-year average, so part of the plan rewards raising money, which is the dilution C17 records.
- The operational targets are withheld as commercially sensitive, so how hard the goals that paid in full were cannot be checked.
Why it wins, and who could beat it
Why customers come back
In the US a satellite can use a carrier's airwaves only if that carrier leases them to it. AT&T and Verizon have, and regulators approved AST's full network on their airwaves in April 2026. That is a real head start.
It is not a lock. The regulator counts only about 47% of US land covered by 5G, so the need is real, but the carriers can lease to others too.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C22facthigh confidence
On 2026-04-21 the FCC granted AST authority to deploy and operate its full 248-satellite constellation for US service on AT&T's and Verizon's 700 and 800 MHz spectrum and FirstNet's 700 MHz, with the leases approved the same day.
C23facthigh confidence
Under FCC rules a satellite operator may use a carrier's spectrum in the US only where the carriers holding every licence on that channel in an area lease it to the operator.
C24inferencemedium confidence
AST's protection is that two of the three national carriers have leased it their low-band spectrum and the FCC has licensed it to use it; that access is not exclusive.
derivedC22 and C23: the lease rule makes the carrier the gate, and AT&T and Verizon have opened it; C32 and C34: the carriers keep the right to add suppliers.
against this
- T-Mobile chose SpaceX and its service is live (C28), so the third national carrier's spectrum is already with a rival.
- AT&T's chief executive said he may buy from more than one supplier and expects SpaceX and Amazon to field the service (C34).
- Management counters that the carrier venture frees up a third and fourth US customer for AST (S05).
C25facthigh confidence
The FCC counts about 47% of US land area covered by at least one 5G provider at 7/1 Mbps, against 97% of the population, and finds no national carrier's network truly ubiquitous.
The threat
SpaceX is already selling the service. Its satellites give texts, light data and app calls to about 7.4 million phones a month through T-Mobile and about 30 other carriers, for $10 a month in the US. It is buying its own airwaves for about $19.6B and plans faster satellites from 2027. Amazon, buying Globalstar, will carry Apple's iPhone satellite service.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
C27facthigh confidence
SpaceX's own prospectus says about 650 satellites already give light data, texts and app calls to about 7.4 million phones a month across about 30 countries, and names AST as a competitor.
against this
- SpaceX reports no Starlink Mobile revenue separately, so how many of those devices pay is unknown (S18).
- T-Mobile warns its satellite data is limited and some apps may not work (S21).
C28facthigh confidence
T-Mobile's T-Satellite on SpaceX launched in July 2025, added app data in October 2025, and costs $10 a month, free on its best plans and open to AT&T and Verizon customers.
C29facthigh confidence
SpaceX agreed to buy EchoStar's AWS-4, H-block and unpaired AWS-3 licences for about $19.6B; the FCC approved it on 2026-05-12 and the final closing is targeted for 2027-11-30.
sourceSpaceX Form 10-Q, Q2 2026primaryEchoStar and SpaceX joint release on the AWS-4 and H-block…primaryEchoStar Form 10-Q, Q2 2026primary
against this
SpaceX's prospectus says no commercially available phone has the radio hardware for those bands' 5G-like service yet (S17).
C30management claimlow confidence
SpaceX says V2 satellites from 2027 will raise capacity 'by orders of magnitude', about 50 per Starship launch, and has said 1,200 within six months of mid-2027 at up to 150 Mbit/s.
sourceSpaceX final prospectus (424B4)primaryTelecomTV, 'MWC26: Starlink preps new D2D constellation'secondary
against this
- The 1,200-satellite pace and the speed figure come from a keynote reported by the trade press, not from a filing.
- The prospectus makes US V2 service conditional on the satellites reaching orbit and the EchoStar spectrum closing, targeted for November 2027 (C29).
C31facthigh confidence
Amazon agreed in April 2026 to buy Globalstar for $90 a share, take over Apple's iPhone satellite service, and deploy its own direct-to-phone system from 2028.
The rivals: SPCX, SPCX, AMZN, GSAT, NOK, ERIC, IRDM, VSAT.
Who else does this, rival by rival
| Ticker | Rival | Where it competes | How far along | Priced against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPCX | SpaceX Starlink Mobile (V1 today, V2 from 2027), sold through T-Mobile's T-Satellite and about 30 carriersPriced against it: Small part of it | SpaceMobile Service | On sale | Small part of it |
| SpaceX and other launch-and-satellite primes bidding for the same US government missions | U.S. government services | On sale | ||
| AMZN · GSAT | Amazon Leo after its Globalstar purchase, carrying Apple's iPhone satellite servicePriced against it: Yes | SpaceMobile Service | Announced | Yes |
| NOK · ERIC | Nokia, Ericsson and other ground-network vendors whose gear carriers already buyPriced against it: Different product | Gateway equipment sales | In research | Different product |
| IRDM | Iridium CommunicationsPriced against it: Yes | - | On sale | Yes |
| VSAT | ViasatPriced against it: One segment only | - | On sale | One segment only |
How big it could get
How big this could get
The United Nations' telecom agency counts about 312 million people with no mobile internet coverage at all, and in the US roughly half the land has no 5G.
Nobody measures how many covered people would pay for occasional coverage outside it, which is where most revenue would come from. The only US price on offer is $10 a month, and no contract says what share AST keeps.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C25facthigh confidence
The FCC counts about 47% of US land area covered by at least one 5G provider at 7/1 Mbps, against 97% of the population, and finds no national carrier's network truly ubiquitous.
C26facthigh confidence
The ITU counts 96% of the world inside 3G-or-better coverage, leaving about 312 million people outside it; the GSMA puts the same gap at about 300 million.
C28facthigh confidence
T-Mobile's T-Satellite on SpaceX launched in July 2025, added app data in October 2025, and costs $10 a month, free on its best plans and open to AT&T and Verizon customers.
C21facthigh confidence
AST has definitive agreements with AT&T, Verizon, STC and Vodafone and about 50 preliminary ones; no filing states the price, volume, term or revenue share of the AT&T, Verizon or Vodafone deals, while STC's is ten years with a $175M prepayment received.
Who has signed
AT&T, Verizon, Saudi Telecom and Vodafone's European venture have signed definitive deals, but only Saudi Telecom's states terms: ten years and $175M paid upfront. About 50 other carriers have preliminary agreements. Japan has preliminarily picked AST's venture with Rakuten for a government subsidy, not yet granted.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C21facthigh confidence
AST has definitive agreements with AT&T, Verizon, STC and Vodafone and about 50 preliminary ones; no filing states the price, volume, term or revenue share of the AT&T, Verizon or Vodafone deals, while STC's is ten years with a $175M prepayment received.
C22facthigh confidence
On 2026-04-21 the FCC granted AST authority to deploy and operate its full 248-satellite constellation for US service on AT&T's and Verizon's 700 and 800 MHz spectrum and FirstNet's 700 MHz, with the leases approved the same day.
C40facthigh confidence
AST says RAST, its venture with Rakuten, has been preliminarily selected for Japan's J-LEO satellite subsidy worth up to 148 billion yen, and that the venture and the funding are not final.
C41factmedium confidence
US government work signed so far is small: a $43.0M Space Development Agency test contract through a prime, about $30.0M direct, an unfunded missile-defence framework award, and 'over $125 million' of 2026 awards the company has not itemised.
The results
The numbers
Is it growing?Fast
Sales grew 23× over the twelve months to Jun 2026, faster than the 15× in the year to Dec 2025.
Is it profitable?Losing
It lost 537% of sales.
How steady is it?Swingy
Yearly sales growth has ranged from −100% to +15× over the last 4 years, with sales falling in 1 of them.
Does it earn good returns?Poor
Shareholders' money lost 35% a year, down from −17% in the year to Dec 2021.
How long can it keep going?Limited
It used $1.64B of cash over the last twelve months, so the $4.59B it holds lasts about 2.8 years at that pace.
Is the balance sheet safe?Net cash
It holds $4.59B of cash against $2.97B of debt, $1.62B more cash than it owes.
Are shares being diluted?Diluting
The share count rose 265% in 2.5 years, and pay in shares costs 128% of sales.
All the numbers
Filed figures from the company's 10-K and 10-Q, read 2026-10-16. Fiscal years end in December.
| Dec 2021 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2025 | 12 mo to Jun 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Size and growth | ||||||
| Sales | $12.4M | $13.8M | $0 | $4.42M | $70.9M | $115M |
| Sales growth | +108% | +11% | −100% | - | +15× | +23× |
| Profit | ||||||
| Gross margin | 39% | 51% | - | - | - | - |
| Net margin | −246% | −229% | - | −68× | −482% | −537% |
| What growth costs, per sales dollar | ||||||
| Research and development | 189% | 330% | - | 651% | 40% | 26% |
| General and admin | 287% | 350% | - | 14× | 143% | 142% |
| Pay in shares | 30% | 68% | - | 725% | 67% | 128% |
| Capital spending | 122% | 414% | - | 39× | 15× | 13× |
| Cash | ||||||
| Cash from operations | −$80.1M | −$156M | −$149M | −$126M | −$71.5M | −$145M |
| Free cash flow | −$95.2M | −$214M | −$268M | −$300M | −$1.14B | −$1.64B |
| Balance sheet | ||||||
| Cash and short-term investments | $636M | $469M | $155M | $1.08B | $4.34B | $4.59B |
| Debt | $5.00M | $5.00M | $59.5M | $158M | $2.22B | $2.97B |
| Net cash | $631M | $464M | $95.8M | $917M | $2.12B | $1.62B |
| Returns and shares | ||||||
| Shares (diluted) | - | - | 81.8M | 155M | 256M | 299M |
What growth costs
The usual test does not work yet: almost all the spending builds satellites, and the phone service that should pay for them has not started. Costs grow with each satellite built, not with sales, so whether growth makes AST more profitable cannot be judged until service revenue arrives.
The evidence under this - 2 claims
C58facthigh confidence
FY2025 operating expenses were $358.6M against $70.9M of revenue: engineering services $142.5M, general and administrative $101.7M, research and development $28.1M, depreciation $51.1M; capital spending was $1,064.7M against $174.1M in FY2024 and $118.8M in FY2023.
C46facthigh confidence
The build-out used $1.12B of cash in H1 2026, $145.2M in operations and $979.7M in investing, and management guided Q3 2026 capital spending of $350M to $425M.
The last report (10 Aug)
Quarter ended June 2026, filed figures.
113.9%
Growth from the quarter before
against -72.9% the quarter before that
Q2 2026 brought $31.5M of revenue, more than double Q1, almost all of it ground equipment and government milestones. The loss to shareholders was $230.9M, including $125.9M for a satellite a rocket left in too low an orbit.
Seven of the new large satellites are in orbit, and three more were trucked to the launch site on 30 September with no launch date yet. The company kept its 2026 revenue goal of $150M to $200M, which needs the second half to bring more than double the first.
What it did to the thesisIt did little to help the argument. Revenue still comes from low-margin equipment and government work rather than the phone service, and a lost satellite deepened the loss. Keeping the yearly goal needs a much bigger second half, and the slipping launch timetable keeps the view Unattractive.
The quarter in detail
Sales growth from the previous quarter, filed figures. The company has restated its own history, so a quarter either side of the restatement may describe a different business; n/c marks one that does not compare.
Earnings per share $-0.77 against $-0.32 expected.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
C05facthigh confidence
Revenue was $46.3M in H1 2026, $37.8M of it gateway equipment and $8.4M government services, after $70.9M in FY2025; none of it came from the phone service.
C06facthigh confidence
Gateway equipment earns almost nothing: Q2 2026 product revenue was $24.4M against $22.4M of product cost, and $9.8M of H1 product revenue was sold to SatCo, AST's 50/50 venture with Vodafone.
C07facthigh confidence
The net loss to shareholders was $230.9M in Q2 2026, including a $125.9M write-off of BB7, a satellite placed in too low an orbit by Blue Origin's New Glenn in April 2026.
C09facthigh confidence
Seven Block 2 satellites are in orbit (BB6 and BB8 to BB13) beside five Block 1s, against the 20 Block 2s needed for limited service; BB14 to BB16 left Texas for Cape Canaveral on 2026-09-30 with no launch date announced.
sourceAST SpaceMobile Form 10-Q, Q2 2026primaryQ2 2026 business update presentation (8-K EX-99.2)primaryStocktwits, 'ASTS Climbs Overnight As BlueBird Convoy Heads…secondary
- 2026-10-01editedthe 2026-09-30 shipment of BB14 to BB16 to Cape Canaveral was read (S43) after the first pass could not fetch it
C13management claimmedium confidence
Management reiterated FY2026 revenue of $150M to $200M on 2026-08-10, which needs $103.7M to $153.7M in H2 against $46.3M in H1.
sourceQ2 2026 results release (8-K EX-99.1)primaryQ2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP)primaryAST SpaceMobile Form 10-Q, Q2 2026primary
against this
- H1 delivered 23% to 31% of the range, and management now says revenue will be weighted to Q4.
- The stated driver moved from carriers and government in May to 'additional contract awards from the U.S. Government' in August.
What management did with the money
Every year of building has been paid for by investors. Shares rose 14.5% in the year to June 2026, and $3.70B of debt can turn into more shares at $72 to $116 each. The founder, who owns about 21%, hedged 2.5 million shares in June.
Insiders in 2026Q3: 10 purchases and 9 sales, from their Form 4 filings.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C15facthigh confidence
At June 30, 2026 AST held $2.29B of cash and $434.6M of restricted cash against $2.97B of debt; in July it added $1.15B of 1.625% notes due 2034, netting $1.02B after a $111.4M capped call.
C16facthigh confidence
About $3.70B of convertible notes are outstanding; all but $3.5M of them convert at $72.07 to $116.30 a share, above the $58.86 close.
C17facthigh confidence
Shares of all three classes rose 14.5%, from 339.9M to 389.1M, between June 2025 and June 2026, after an $800M at-the-market sale used almost entirely and note buybacks paid in new shares.
C36facthigh confidence
Abel Avellan, chairman and chief executive, owns about 20.8% and in June 2026 hedged up to 2.5M shares through a forward with a $59.58 floor settling in March 2028.
The price, and where we disagree
In short. Priced for perfection. The price assumes a satellite-to-phone service nobody has yet built, arriving on a timetable that keeps slipping, then growing for years.
Share price
$58.86
close,
Company value for each $1 of sales
213.8
rivals' middle 22.8 · its 6-year normal 87.3
The shares have fallen by more than half since May. The drop came the day after a third $1B debt sale in nine months, announced with the news that the 45-satellite goal had moved to early 2027.
The next year decides the race. AST says paid service starts in 2027. SpaceX says its faster satellites start launching then too. A shareholder lawsuit filed in September argues the company overstated its lead.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
C38facthigh confidence
The shares peaked at $133.86 on 2026-05-28 and closed at $58.86 on 2026-09-30; they fell 17.0% on 2026-07-16, 15.2% on 2026-02-12 and 9.2% on 2025-10-22, each the day after a convertible offering.
C08facthigh confidence
The launch target slipped three times in a year: over 60 Block 2 satellites in 2025 through 2026 (August 2025), 45 to 60 by end of 2026 (March 2026), about 45 by end of 2026 (May 2026), then about 45 in early 2027 (July 2026).
C29facthigh confidence
SpaceX agreed to buy EchoStar's AWS-4, H-block and unpaired AWS-3 licences for about $19.6B; the FCC approved it on 2026-05-12 and the final closing is targeted for 2027-11-30.
sourceSpaceX Form 10-Q, Q2 2026primaryEchoStar and SpaceX joint release on the AWS-4 and H-block…primaryEchoStar Form 10-Q, Q2 2026primary
against this
SpaceX's prospectus says no commercially available phone has the radio hardware for those bands' 5G-like service yet (S17).
C30management claimlow confidence
SpaceX says V2 satellites from 2027 will raise capacity 'by orders of magnitude', about 50 per Starship launch, and has said 1,200 within six months of mid-2027 at up to 150 Mbit/s.
sourceSpaceX final prospectus (424B4)primaryTelecomTV, 'MWC26: Starlink preps new D2D constellation'secondary
against this
- The 1,200-satellite pace and the speed figure come from a keynote reported by the trade press, not from a filing.
- The prospectus makes US V2 service conditional on the satellites reaching orbit and the EchoStar spectrum closing, targeted for November 2027 (C29).
C39factmedium confidence
A securities class action, Hunter v. AST SpaceMobile (W.D. Tex.), alleges the company overstated its competitive position after the SpaceX spectrum deal and understated its capital needs between March 2025 and July 2026.
The betPriced for success
If it works
0.9×
from today's value, valued like the cheaper of its two rivals
If it fails
keep 0%
of today's market value: what the worst case leaves shareholders
How we read the multiple
The whole company, debt included, costs about 214 times AST's sales over the last year. Its two working rivals cost about 23 times. Its phone service has not started.
At about $23.2B for the whole company, the price needs:
- Service to start in 2027, on time.
- Sales near $1B in the first year, management's target, with carriers paying well.
- Growth for years after that, with SpaceX competing.
- All before the cash runs out: about 18 months at this year's spending.
Against its own history. Its own past is no guide: sales were near zero in earlier years, so what buyers paid for each dollar of them swung wildly and says nothing about fair value.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C18estimatehigh confidence
At the $58.86 close on 2026-09-30 the 389.2M shares of all classes are worth about $22.9B, and with June-30 net debt of $249M the whole company is valued at about $23.2B, roughly 201 times the $115.3M of trailing revenue.
derivedClose from the pack (S16); share counts from the 10-Q cover (S02), Class B and C counted because they exchange one-for-one into Class A; debt of $2.97B less $2.29B cash and $0.43B restricted cash (S02); trailing revenue is Q3 2025 to Q2 2026 from the filings.
against this
- The vendor puts company value at $24.66B and the multiple at 213.8 times; the gap is share count and cash definition, and it does not change the reading.
- Counting Class A alone values the equity at $17.6B, but Class B and C holders own the same economic interest through the operating company.
C19inferencemedium confidence
At about $23.2B the price assumes service starts in 2027, revenue reaches about the $1B management targets within a year and keeps compounding for years, which no satellite-to-phone operator has yet shown.
derivedC18 for the value; C14 for the target; C27, C28 and C31 for what rivals earn or charge; the cohort's two operating satellite companies trade at a fraction of the multiple (S16).
against this
- SpaceX reaching about 7.4 million phones a month shows demand for the service exists (C27).
- Government work, including a possible J-LEO grant, could carry half the first-year target without any carrier revenue (C14, C40).
- Amazon agreed to pay $90 a share for Globalstar, whose main line is satellite service to iPhones, so strategic buyers pay up for this asset class (C31).
C14management claimlow confidence
Management says revenue should approach $1B in the first year of commercial service, with as much as half from government, and that service revenue starts when service starts next year.
against this
- No carrier contract discloses a price, volume or revenue-share percentage (C21), so the commercial half cannot be built from filed terms.
- Only 6.6% of the $1.2B of signed contracts is due within a year (C12).
- The only published US retail price for satellite-to-phone service is $10 a month, and T-Mobile includes it free in its best plans (C28).
C47estimatemedium confidence
At H1 2026's pace of about $2.25B a year, the roughly $3.3B of unrestricted cash after the July notes lasts about 18 months, before any Ligado closing payment.
derivedC46: H1 2026 cash used of $1.12B, doubled; C15: $2.29B unrestricted cash plus $1.02B net July proceeds. Restricted cash is excluded because $428.4M of it collateralises the UBS loan.
against this
- H1 2026 capital spending included launch payments moved from Q1, and management guides Q3 lower at $350M to $425M, so the run-rate may overstate.
- Prepayments due from carriers, $45M from Verizon among them, and any J-LEO subsidy would extend it (C21, C40).
Priced against its rivals
The competitors its own annual report names, each confirmed against the rival's filing. Measured on company value for each $1 of sales, cheapest first:
| Ticker | Company | company value for each $1 of sales |
|---|---|---|
| IRDM | Iridium Communications | 7.5× |
| GSAT | Globalstar | 38.0× |
| ASTS | AST SpaceMobile | 213.8× |
The middle of the other 2 is 22.8. AST SpaceMobile, Inc. is dearest of 3.
Rivals' figures come from a data provider, so read the spread of the group rather than any single pair.
Buyers pay far less for each dollar of sales at the two working satellite companies AST names as rivals; the premium is AST's alone, not the group's.
Private or foreign rivals that cannot be priced: Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (Starlink), Thuraya Telecommunications Co., Skylo Technologies.
The bet: what it pays if it works
Think of this as a bet with a long list of steps. If the satellites go up on time and the carriers start charging, the best case we can defend is worth about today's price if AST ends up valued like the cheaper of its two listed rivals. Most of the success is already paid for, and it needs tens of millions of paying users.
If it fails, little is left for shareholders: the debt is paid first, and the cash goes into satellites before any service money arrives.
| Revenue in two to three years | Paying users needed | Valued like its peers | Like the cheapest |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1.00B | about 8.3M at 50% kept | 0.9× | 0.3× |
| $3.00B (the big win) | about 41.7M at 50% kept | 2.8× | 0.9× |
| $5.00B | about 75.0M at 50% kept | 4.6× | 1.5× |
To pay 2× (a Fair bet) it would need about $6.57B of revenue (about 101.2M paying users at 50% kept); to pay 5× (a Cheap bet), about $16.44B of revenue (about 265.6M paying users at 50% kept), at the same multiple.
The steps it has to take
- Done FCC licence for the full constellation on AT&T and Verizon spectrum
- In progress At least 10 Block 2 satellites in orbit due 2026-11-09
- Slipped About 45 Block 2 satellites in orbit, for continuous US service due 2027-03
- In progress FCC approves AST's own L-band spectrum (Ligado) due 2027-06
- In progress Japan's J-LEO subsidy granted to RAST due 2027-03
- Slipped Four quarters with no new equity or convertible raise due 2027-09
- Not started AT&T or Verizon charging customers for AST service, with terms disclosed due 2027-12
- Not started About 90 satellites covering every target market due 2028-12
The detail behind the label
Rating
Expensive
the big win's payoff against the 2× and 5× lines
At their midpoint
2.8×
the same success, valued between the two
Cheap bet at about
≈ $9.33
84% below the price (close, )
The evidence under this - 6 claims
C08facthigh confidence
The launch target slipped three times in a year: over 60 Block 2 satellites in 2025 through 2026 (August 2025), 45 to 60 by end of 2026 (March 2026), about 45 by end of 2026 (May 2026), then about 45 in early 2027 (July 2026).
C27facthigh confidence
SpaceX's own prospectus says about 650 satellites already give light data, texts and app calls to about 7.4 million phones a month across about 30 countries, and names AST as a competitor.
against this
- SpaceX reports no Starlink Mobile revenue separately, so how many of those devices pay is unknown (S18).
- T-Mobile warns its satellite data is limited and some apps may not work (S21).
C28facthigh confidence
T-Mobile's T-Satellite on SpaceX launched in July 2025, added app data in October 2025, and costs $10 a month, free on its best plans and open to AT&T and Verizon customers.
C14management claimlow confidence
Management says revenue should approach $1B in the first year of commercial service, with as much as half from government, and that service revenue starts when service starts next year.
against this
- No carrier contract discloses a price, volume or revenue-share percentage (C21), so the commercial half cannot be built from filed terms.
- Only 6.6% of the $1.2B of signed contracts is due within a year (C12).
- The only published US retail price for satellite-to-phone service is $10 a month, and T-Mobile includes it free in its best plans (C28).
C16facthigh confidence
About $3.70B of convertible notes are outstanding; all but $3.5M of them convert at $72.07 to $116.30 a share, above the $58.86 close.
C46facthigh confidence
The build-out used $1.12B of cash in H1 2026, $145.2M in operations and $979.7M in investing, and management guided Q3 2026 capital spending of $350M to $425M.
Where we disagree with the market
The market believes
AST is the only network giving ordinary phones real broadband from space, worth buying before service starts.
We believe
The technology is real, but SpaceX already sells to millions of phones while AST's timetable keeps slipping.
The bulls read AST's own material. SpaceX's filings, T-Mobile's $10 price and AT&T's chief executive saying he may use more than one supplier tell a different story: the buyer has options.
We would be wrong if about 45 satellites are up by mid-2027 and AT&T or Verizon start charging customers for AST service. Speed on today's phones is a real edge, but narrowing: SpaceX's 2 GHz airwaves need new phones, its 800 MHz purchase, pending approval, reportedly does not.
What analysts say, and the evidence
Analysts positive
36%
of 14, 1 Sep
Four months earlier
25%
of 12, 1 May
The evidence under this - 7 claims
C19inferencemedium confidence
At about $23.2B the price assumes service starts in 2027, revenue reaches about the $1B management targets within a year and keeps compounding for years, which no satellite-to-phone operator has yet shown.
derivedC18 for the value; C14 for the target; C27, C28 and C31 for what rivals earn or charge; the cohort's two operating satellite companies trade at a fraction of the multiple (S16).
against this
- SpaceX reaching about 7.4 million phones a month shows demand for the service exists (C27).
- Government work, including a possible J-LEO grant, could carry half the first-year target without any carrier revenue (C14, C40).
- Amazon agreed to pay $90 a share for Globalstar, whose main line is satellite service to iPhones, so strategic buyers pay up for this asset class (C31).
C27facthigh confidence
SpaceX's own prospectus says about 650 satellites already give light data, texts and app calls to about 7.4 million phones a month across about 30 countries, and names AST as a competitor.
against this
- SpaceX reports no Starlink Mobile revenue separately, so how many of those devices pay is unknown (S18).
- T-Mobile warns its satellite data is limited and some apps may not work (S21).
C28facthigh confidence
T-Mobile's T-Satellite on SpaceX launched in July 2025, added app data in October 2025, and costs $10 a month, free on its best plans and open to AT&T and Verizon customers.
C34facthigh confidence
AT&T's chief executive said in April 2026 that he expects SpaceX and Amazon to field direct-to-phone service and may buy from more than one supplier.
C08facthigh confidence
The launch target slipped three times in a year: over 60 Block 2 satellites in 2025 through 2026 (August 2025), 45 to 60 by end of 2026 (March 2026), about 45 by end of 2026 (May 2026), then about 45 in early 2027 (July 2026).
C14management claimlow confidence
Management says revenue should approach $1B in the first year of commercial service, with as much as half from government, and that service revenue starts when service starts next year.
against this
- No carrier contract discloses a price, volume or revenue-share percentage (C21), so the commercial half cannot be built from filed terms.
- Only 6.6% of the $1.2B of signed contracts is due within a year (C12).
- The only published US retail price for satellite-to-phone service is $10 a month, and T-Mobile includes it free in its best plans (C28).
C45inferencemedium confidence
The edge AST still holds is broadband on phones people already own: SpaceX's own filing says today's phones lack the radio hardware for its new 2 GHz bands' 5G-like service, though its pending 800 MHz low-band purchase, which SpaceX says most phones already support, narrows that window.
against this
- SpaceX also serves unmodified phones on carrier spectrum today and plans V2 for 2027 (C27, C30).
- Phone makers add bands in each new model, so a hardware gap is a timing gap measured in phone generations.
- SpaceX announced on 2026-10-08 that it will buy 14 MHz of paired 800 MHz spectrum from Grain Management, subject to FCC approval and with no price given, and said most existing mobile devices already support that band (S46, a trade-press copy of the company statement; no SpaceX filing or FCC order could be read).
- 2026-10-10editedSpaceX's 2026-10-08 low-band purchase is aimed at phones people already own, so the hardware window is narrower than the claim said
What could go wrong, and how we would know
The risks
- SpaceX gets there first. It already serves millions of phones and plans faster satellites in 2027, so carriers may never need AST as their main partner.
- More delay. The launch goal moved later in each of the last three reports, and service revenue cannot start until enough satellites are up.
- More shares. If service slips, the next fundraising arrives before the revenue does, shrinking each holder's slice again.
- Two carriers carry the US. AT&T and Verizon hold the US launch; if either adds a rival on equal terms the plan shrinks.
- Rockets it does not control. Launches ride on SpaceX, its main rival, and Blue Origin, whose rocket already lost one satellite.
- Airwaves still waiting. AST has paid $520M toward airwaves of its own that still need regulators' approval.
The evidence under this - 7 claims
C27facthigh confidence
SpaceX's own prospectus says about 650 satellites already give light data, texts and app calls to about 7.4 million phones a month across about 30 countries, and names AST as a competitor.
against this
- SpaceX reports no Starlink Mobile revenue separately, so how many of those devices pay is unknown (S18).
- T-Mobile warns its satellite data is limited and some apps may not work (S21).
C29facthigh confidence
SpaceX agreed to buy EchoStar's AWS-4, H-block and unpaired AWS-3 licences for about $19.6B; the FCC approved it on 2026-05-12 and the final closing is targeted for 2027-11-30.
sourceSpaceX Form 10-Q, Q2 2026primaryEchoStar and SpaceX joint release on the AWS-4 and H-block…primaryEchoStar Form 10-Q, Q2 2026primary
against this
SpaceX's prospectus says no commercially available phone has the radio hardware for those bands' 5G-like service yet (S17).
C08facthigh confidence
The launch target slipped three times in a year: over 60 Block 2 satellites in 2025 through 2026 (August 2025), 45 to 60 by end of 2026 (March 2026), about 45 by end of 2026 (May 2026), then about 45 in early 2027 (July 2026).
C17facthigh confidence
Shares of all three classes rose 14.5%, from 339.9M to 389.1M, between June 2025 and June 2026, after an $800M at-the-market sale used almost entirely and note buybacks paid in new shares.
C21facthigh confidence
AST has definitive agreements with AT&T, Verizon, STC and Vodafone and about 50 preliminary ones; no filing states the price, volume, term or revenue share of the AT&T, Verizon or Vodafone deals, while STC's is ten years with a $175M prepayment received.
C51factmedium confidence
AST reaches orbit partly on its main rival's rockets: a SpaceX Falcon 9 carried BB11 to BB13 in August 2026 and holds at most three Block 2s, while Blue Origin's New Glenn, which lost BB7, is the larger option.
C20facthigh confidence
AST has paid $520M toward Ligado's L-band spectrum, $100M of it held in escrow by the bankruptcy court, pays at least $80M a year for its use, and the deal still needs FCC approval that is pending.
What we still do not know
- What AT&T and Verizon will pay AST for each customer, and what share of their satellite revenue AST keeps.
- How many people actually pay for satellite service on their phone today; SpaceX counts users, not payers.
- How fast SpaceX's next satellites will really be on an ordinary phone, and from when.
- What each new satellite really costs once launch is included.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C21facthigh confidence
AST has definitive agreements with AT&T, Verizon, STC and Vodafone and about 50 preliminary ones; no filing states the price, volume, term or revenue share of the AT&T, Verizon or Vodafone deals, while STC's is ten years with a $175M prepayment received.
C27facthigh confidence
SpaceX's own prospectus says about 650 satellites already give light data, texts and app calls to about 7.4 million phones a month across about 30 countries, and names AST as a competitor.
against this
- SpaceX reports no Starlink Mobile revenue separately, so how many of those devices pay is unknown (S18).
- T-Mobile warns its satellite data is limited and some apps may not work (S21).
C30management claimlow confidence
SpaceX says V2 satellites from 2027 will raise capacity 'by orders of magnitude', about 50 per Starship launch, and has said 1,200 within six months of mid-2027 at up to 150 Mbit/s.
sourceSpaceX final prospectus (424B4)primaryTelecomTV, 'MWC26: Starlink preps new D2D constellation'secondary
against this
- The 1,200-satellite pace and the speed figure come from a keynote reported by the trade press, not from a filing.
- The prospectus makes US V2 service conditional on the satellites reaching orbit and the EchoStar spectrum closing, targeted for November 2027 (C29).
C11management claimmedium confidence
Management estimates $21M to $23M of materials and launch per Block 2 satellite across about 90, with early satellites costing more, and says it is fully funded for about 90.
against this
- BB7's write-off was $125.9M after $21.6M of insurance, far above the range for one early satellite (C07).
- Four convertible raises in twelve months sit beside the 'fully funded' sentence (C17), and the class action alleges the capital need was understated (C39).
What would change our view
- Unattractive→AttractiveService starts on the current timetable, at a price that has not already run ahead
It needs all of:
- ○About 45 of the large satellites are in orbit and AT&T or Verizon charges customers for AST service.watched as it happens
- ○The company is valued at about 25 times its yearly revenue, because revenue arrived or the price fell.about ≈$7.33 today, 88% below the last close
- Unattractive→NeutralThe funding question closes
It needs all of:
- ○Regulators approve AST's use of Ligado's airwaves, giving it spectrum of its own.watched as it happens
- ○Shares outstanding grow less than 5% over a year, with no new share or convertible debt sale.checked at the next results, due by 9 Nov
We would also be wrong if
- AT&T or Verizon signs a satellite-to-phone deal with SpaceX or Amazon.
What is coming
- 9 November 2026 Q3 2026 results: Block 2 satellites in orbit against about 45 by early 2027, H2 revenue pace against the $150M to $200M guide, and whether another raise came.
Every dated event ahead
- 9 November 2026 Q3 2026 results: Block 2 satellites in orbit against about 45 by early 2027, H2 revenue pace against the $150M to $200M guide, and whether another raise came.
- March 2027 About 45 Block 2 satellites in orbit, management's target: Whether the fourth version of the launch plan holds; continuous US service needs 45 to 60, so a miss pushes service revenue later.
- March 2027 FY2026 results and 10-K: Full-year revenue against the reiterated guide, cash left against the build-out pace, and a dated start for paid service.
- May 2027 Viasat's and EchoStar's EU 2 GHz rights expire: Whether the European re-award opens satellite spectrum to AST and Vodafone's SatCo, or to its rivals.
- 30 November 2027 SpaceX's purchase of EchoStar spectrum closes: When SpaceX gets its own direct-to-phone spectrum, the competitive clock AST's carrier-spectrum advantage runs against.
Since we wrote this
Written
1 Oct
Price the thesis read
$58.86
30 Sep
- 10 OctNewsSpaceX buys low-band airwaves; AST's phone edge narrowsSpaceX says the 800 MHz band works on most phones, so AST's advantage on unmodified phones is a shorter window. Unattractive holds: no carrier has switched.
- 5 OctThesis reviewThe bet now names what it ridesThe owner asked that every bet name the macro trend behind it, after BWXT's bet was missing its chief executive's case for nuclear over gas.
- 4 OctThesis reviewOwner's checklist: revenue streams, cost of growth, management, catalystsThe owner's checklist found the method silent on who runs the company, what growth costs, where the money comes from and what is dated ahead; this pass fills those four blocks from the proxy and filings.
- 1 OctThesis writtenUnattractive, medium convictionA real technology priced as if it had already won, while SpaceX sells the service today and AST's launch timetable keeps moving later.
- 1 OctBet moveBet re-struck: Fair bet to Expensive betRe-priced at the 30 September close.
Also checked 3 times with nothing new to act on.
Sources 46
Where this came from
Sources - 46
Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.
- S01primarycompany filing2026-03-02Item 1 business, satellite plan, competition section naming six rivals, spectrum, RPO at year end, convertible terms, capital-cost estimatebacksC01C02C04C12C21C41C42C43C44C16C57C58
- S02primarycompany filing2026-08-10income statement, balance sheet, cash flows, RPO and contract liabilities, launch status and the early-2027 target, Ligado payments, share counts, SatCo related-party revenuebacksC01C02C03C04C05C06C07C08C09C10C11C12C13C21C22C42C15C16C17C46C20
- S03primarycompany release2026-08-10FY2026 revenue guidance reiterated, $1.30B backlog, over $125M of 2026 government awardsbacksC13C41
- S04primarycompany release2026-08-1013 spacecraft in orbit, BlueBird 14-46 in production, 3,000 cells activated, 100 MHz US spectrum target, adjusted opex reconciliationbacksC09
- S05primarytranscript2026-08-10Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP)data/cache/transcripts/ASTS-2026Q2.jsonmanagement's answers on the $1B first-year goal, 25 satellites as about half-day coverage, $21-23M per satellite, 10 launches booked with two providers, the carrier JV; nine analysts' questions are a separate origin
nothing's changed on our expectation and our goal of reaching -- approaching $1 billion of revenue in our first year of commercial service
backsC03C10C11C13C14C46 - S06primarycompany filing2026-05-11the 'approximately 45 BB satellites by the end of 2026' target and the BB7 loss on New GlennbacksC07C08C51
- S07primarycompany filing2025-08-11the 'over 60 Block 2 BB satellites in 2025 through 2026' launch plan and the June 2025 share countsbacksC08C17
- S08primarycompany filing2026-07-15the $1.0B 2034 convertible offering, the move to about 45 satellites in early 2027, and the preliminary J-LEO selectionbacksC08C40
- S09primarycompany release2026-07-15$79.57 conversion price, $149.20 capped-call ceiling, 20% premium to the 2026-07-15 closebacksC15C16
- S10primarycompany release2026-03-02the goal of 45 to 60 satellites in orbit by end of 2026, $1.2B of contracted revenue, FY2025 revenue of $70.9MbacksC05C08
- S11primarycompany filing2026-02-11risk factor: significant additional capital needed for satellites beyond the funded constellationread, but no claim rests on it
- S12primarycompany filing2026-09-28double-trigger severance at 2.0 times for the CEO and 1.5 times for other officers; the filing's only itemread, but no claim rests on it
- S13primarycompany release2025-10-29ten-year agreement, $175M prepayment, service launch targeted for Q4 2026 subject to Saudi approvalbacksC21
- S14primarycompany filing2026-06-23Schedule 13D/A No. 18 filed by Abel Avellan Abel Avellan (AST chairman and chief executive)variable prepaid forward over up to 2,500,000 shares, floor $59.58, cap $111.72, settling March 2028; 20.8% beneficial ownershipbacksC36
- S15primarycompany filing2026-10-01Form 4 filings, open-market rows read for the Rule 10b5-1 flag (scripts/insider_fetch.py) AST insiders and 10% holders14 open-market sales and 8 purchases in a year; Mikitani, American Tower, the CFO and COO sales discretionary; the CTO's under a planbacksC35
- S16secondaryvendor data2026-10-01Research pack, market tier (FMP: last close 2026-09-30, technicals, analyst split, price history)data/cache/research/ASTS.jsonthe $58.86 close, the 52-week range, daily price moves, the analyst split and its drift, the filed-competitor cohort multiplesbacksC16C38C48
- S17primarycompany filing2026-06-12Starlink Mobile: about 650 V1 satellites, about 7.4M monthly devices in about 30 countries, fee model, V2 in 2027, AST named as a competitor, handset band limitsbacksC27C30
- S18primarycompany filing2026-08-04FCC approval of the EchoStar spectrum transaction on 2026-05-12, about $19.6B consideration, Starlink Mobile revenue not reported separatelybacksC29
- S19primarycompany release2025-09-08about $17B for AWS-4 and H-block; Boost Mobile access to next-generation Starlink Direct to CellbacksC29
- S20primarycompany filing2026-08-03final spectrum closing targeted for 2027-11-30; Boost commercial agreement still futurebacksC29
- S21primarycompany release2025-10-01the only published US retail price for satellite-to-phone service, and app data over satellite since October 2025
For T‑Mobile customers, it's included at no extra charge in our best plans, while others (including AT&T and Verizon customers) can add it for just $10 a month.
backsC28 - S22primarycompany filing2026-07-23the 2026-05-14 agreement in principle with AT&T and Verizon to pool spectrum for satellite providers through a joint venturebacksC32
- S23primarycompany filing2026-07-31the joint venture remains subject to definitive agreementsbacksC21C32
- S24primarycompany release2026-04-14$90 a share for Globalstar, Amazon Leo to power Apple's iPhone satellite services, its own D2D system from 2028backsC31
- S25primarycompany filing2026-02-27wholesale capacity to Apple was $172.7M, 63% of 2025 revenue; cohort membershipread, but no claim rests on it
- S26primarycompany filing2026-02-12handset services where terrestrial networks do not reach; NTN Direct on 3GPP chipsets; cohort membershipbacksC44
- S27primarycompany filing2026-05-29Inmarsat inside a larger segment; direct-to-device an emerging lineread, but no claim rests on it
- S28primarygovernment data2025-10-15the world population outside mobile broadband coverage, measured by the UN agency
Coverage by 3G or higher technology has reached 96 per cent of the world’s population. Yet extending networks to the remaining 4 per cent, comprising approximately 312 million people, is proving slow and complex.
backsC26 - S29primaryindustry data2025-09-09the coverage gap from the operators' trade body, agreeing with the ITU, and that over 90% of the unconnected live where there is coverage
This leaves around 300 million people (4% of the global population) living in what is labelled the Coverage Gap, lacking any available mobile internet connectivity.
backsC26C43 - S30primaryregulator2024-12-31US mobile coverage by population, road miles and land area
Approximately 97% of the U.S. population, approximately 75% of U.S. road miles, and approximately 47% of the U.S. land area were covered by at least one 5G-NR service provider at minimum speeds of 7/1 Mbps.
backsC25 - S31primaryregulator2024-03-15the rule that a satellite operator may use carrier spectrum in the US only under a carrier's lease
we authorize SCS only where one or more terrestrial licensees-together holding all licenses on the relevant channel throughout a defined geographically independent area-lease access to their spectrum rights to a participating satellite operator
backsC23 - S32primaryregulator2026-04-21commercial US authority on AT&T, Verizon and FirstNet spectrum; no mention of Ligado or L-band
Today, we grant, with conditions, authority to AST & Science, LLC (AST) to deploy and operate its full requested 248-satellite constellation for the provision of supplemental coverage from space (SCS) in the United States and direct-to-cell operations outside the United States.
backsC22 - S33primaryregulator2025-09-05the August 2025 partial grant
authorizing AST to deploy 20 additional satellites and to perform TT&C operations using those satellites
read, but no claim rests on it - S34primaryregulator2026-01-30the L-band application on AST satellites is pending, not granted
to add authority to operate space stations, to be known as SkyTerra Next, located on 96 non-geostationary orbit (NGSO) satellites operated by AST & Science, LLC
backsC20 - S35primaryregulator2026-06-30RAST (Rakuten and AST) selected for the 150 billion yen J-LEO programme on 2026-06-30, grant decision pending, service aimed for Japan's fiscal 2028
令和10年度中の衛星ダイレクト通信サービスの開始を目指す
backsC50 - S36primaryregulator2026-05-27European Commission proposal COM(2026) 311 on the 2 GHz MSS band European Commissionthe EU satellite band re-award from 2027, paired 5 MHz blocks, at most 10 MHz per commercial applicant
The proposed Regulation for the authorisation of the 2 GHz MSS frequency band replaces the 2008 Decision , expiring in May 2027
backsC49 - S37secondarynews2026-09-30Hunter v. AST SpaceMobile, No. 26-cv-00378 (W.D. Tex.), class period 2025-03-04 to 2026-07-15, the five alleged drop dates and allegations
July 16, 2026: shares fell 17.04% ($11.30) to $55.01 following a third $1.0 billion offering, the sharpest one-day reaction of the Class Period.
backsC38C39 - S38primarytranscript2026-04-22AT&T Q1 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP) Tdata/cache/transcripts/T-2026Q1.jsonAT&T's chief executive expects SpaceX and Amazon to field direct-to-device service and wants more than one supplier
My goal would be that I have a good strong wholesale relationship, and it may not just be one of them, it may be with more than one of them.
backsC34 - S39secondarynews2026-03-03SpaceX's stated V2 deployment pace and its 150 Mbit/s claim, reported from a keynote
Starlink will start putting its V2 satellites into orbit in mid-2027 using SpaceX's upcoming Starship rockets and aims to have a constellation of 1,200 V2 satellites in place within six months of the first launch
backsC30 - S40primarycompany release2026-07-22NTN Direct to launch later in 2026backsC44
- S41primarygovernment data2026-09-15FINRA consolidated short interest (Rule 4560), via scripts/api/finra.pyFINRA Consolidated Short Interest datasetshort interest, days to cover, share of floatbacksC37
- S42secondarynews2026-08-05which rocket carried BB11 to BB13, and that Falcon 9 holds at most three Block 2 satellites against eight on New Glenn
The Falcon 9 rocket carried satellites numbered 11, 12, and 13 in to orbit.
backsC51 - S43secondarynews2026-09-30BB14 to BB16 left Texas for Cape Canaveral on 2026-09-30 per AST's post on X ('Another convoy is on the move'); no launch date announced; production through BlueBird 50. GuruFocus carried the same announcement; AST's X post itself could not be read without a login
AST also said production at its Midland, Texas, facility continues to advance through BlueBird 50, with more than 20 spacecraft structures being integrated as part of its assembly process.
backsC09C52 - S44primaryregulator2026-09-29AST ex parte notice to the FCC, ET Docket No. 26-169 (meeting with Chairman Carr) FCC (ECFS record; filed by AST & Science)the 2026-09-28 meeting with Chairman Carr on direct-to-device spectrum and the 1675-1695 MHz auction
we expressed our support for the Commission’s proposal, as set forth in the above-referenced Notice of Proposed Rulemaking, to make unlicensed spectrum available for Direct-to-Device (“D2D”) services, including the lower 6 GHz band
backsC53 - S45primarycompany filing2026-04-28beneficial ownership and voting power at April 22, 2026, executive officers and tenure, the 2025 bonus and PSU goals with their payouts, the CEO's zero salarybacksC54C55C56
- S46secondarynews2026-10-08SpaceX will buy 14 MHz of paired 800 MHz spectrum from Grain Management, subject to FCC approval, no price disclosed; SpaceX says most existing phones support the band
SpaceX also stated that most existing mobile devices already support this spectrum band.
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