← All thesesLPGUnattractiveMedium convictionWednesday 16 September 2026עברית

Dorian LPG

A shipowner with 19 giant refrigerated tankers that carry propane and butane across oceans, mostly from America to Asia, and earn whatever the day's freight rate pays.

Our viewUnattractive Medium conviction
The scores
The profile · 1-4
Growth2/4 ↑

Revenue doubled on rate, not ships: available days rose 3.8% while the rate rose 31%, and the fleet shrank.

Business quality2/4 →

A price-taker among 129 owners, but with a younger fleet and a marginal fuel edge - not the worse cost position a 1 requires.

Financial position4/4 ↑

Cash of nearly $600M against $507.5M of debt, nothing needs raising, and September's refinancing pushed maturities out seven years.

Execution record3/4 →

Sold four ships at large gains and kept the balance sheet clean through two cycles, but issues no guidance to miss.

Per share capture4/4 →

Share count up 0.6% in a year, no convertible, no share-funded deals, and about 83 cents of every dollar earned since 2021 paid out.

Potential2/4 →

A bigger version of today that depends on somebody else's war lasting and on 155 ships not arriving - expected, not committed.

Risk profile2/4 →

The result turns on one externally controlled event - whether Hormuz reopens - and 99.96% of revenue arrives through one related party.

Valuation2/4 ↓

$1.97 per dollar of net worth against a 0.91 median, and 12.5 to 26.6 times what a five-year charterer pays.

Evidence quality3/4 →

The load-bearing figures are filed by Dorian, BW LPG and the EIA, but the orderbook and cargo flows rest on single disclosures.

The Verdict

We rate Dorian LPG unattractive. It owns giant tankers that carry propane and butane across oceans, earning whatever the day's freight rate pays, so the business is mixed. A war that closed the Strait of Hormuz sent buyers to American cargo on longer routes and lifted its daily rate sharply. The price assumes that windfall lasts: the shares cost about twice the company's net worth, so it is full, not cheap. Charterers signing long-term deals pay about half today's rate, and many new ships are on order. The view hinges on how long the wartime rate holds.

The long caseAmerica is replacing the Gulf as the big gas exporter, so cargoes travel further and need more ships; Dorian needs those long routes and high rates to last.

The evidence under this - 8 claims
C01facthigh confidence
Dorian owns 19 very large gas carriers and hires in six more; the 25 ships carry liquefied petroleum gas - propane and butane - by sea.
current state · 2026-07-30written 2026-09-16
C03facthigh confidence
The time charter equivalent rate was $75,926 per available day in Q1 FY2027, up 91.1% from $39,726, and the highest Dorian has reported.
historical · Q1 FY2027written 2026-09-16
C05management claimmedium confidence
Management said the closure of the Strait of Hormuz cut Middle East liftings to roughly 3.4 million tonnes in the quarter, down more than 70% year on year.
against this
  • BW LPG puts the same fall at 46% year on year for the first half of 2026 on VLGC-carried volumes - a different measure over a different window, and less severe.
  • Neither figure is filed; both are the operators' reading of a commercial cargo-tracking series.
historical · Q1 FY2027written 2026-09-16
C19facthigh confidence
Over the three years the filings cover, Dorian earned $2.14 a share at a rate of $39,778 a day in FY2025 and $4.54 at $52,238 in FY2026, on 8,776 and 9,113 available days.
historical · FY2025 and FY2026written 2026-09-16
C18facthigh confidence
At $56.82 on 15 September 2026 the shares cost $1.97 for each dollar of that net worth, against $0.91 on average in Dorian's own prior fiscal years.
against this
  • Net worth is depreciated cost. Dorian sold the 2015-built Cobra for $81,900,000 at a gain of $30,116,869, which implies a carrying value of about $51.8M and a market value 1.58 times it - so the fleet is worth more than the balance sheet says and the true premium to asset value is smaller.
  • Second-hand values are themselves at a cyclical extreme: the chief financial officer said the Cobra sold for more than her 2015 contract price, and BW LPG booked gains of about $36M and $37M on two 2007-built ships. A net asset value struck on those prices is struck on the same spike as the earnings.
  • The prior-year median is a median of fiscal-year-end readings taken over a period that included two troughs, so it is not a neutral benchmark either.
current state · 2026-09-15written 2026-09-16
C12facthigh confidence
BW LPG has fixed a 2016-built dual-fuel vessel on a five-year time charter in the mid-to-high $40,000s a day, delivering at the end of 2026.
against this
  • It is one ship and one counterparty, disclosed as a range rather than a number, and a 2016-built vessel is not the same asset as a 2026 newbuilding.
  • A five-year rate is struck partly on the charterer's own view, so it can be wrong in the same direction the spot market is right; the 2023-24 cycle's term rates also sat below a spot market that stayed high for eighteen months.
  • Dorian's own chartering officer says there is 'appetite out in the market' for multi-year cover, which is the same fact read as demand rather than as a price.
current state · 2026-08-28written 2026-09-16
C14facthigh confidence
The combined orderbook is 155 very large gas and ammonia carriers, about 13.9 million cbm, roughly 35.7% of the existing fleet, delivering through calendar 2030 - and 50 of those orders were placed in Q2 2026 alone.
against this
  • The chief executive points out the orderbook peaked above 50% of the fleet in 2007, so 35.7% is large rather than unprecedented.
  • 78 of the 124 ships Dorian counted in May were ammonia carriers, and if ammonia demand arrives they carry ammonia rather than competing for LPG cargoes.
  • About 9% of the existing fleet is 25 years or older, so some of the additions replace ships that will leave.
current state · 2026-08-05written 2026-09-16
C20estimatemedium confidence
The rate charterers will commit to for five years - the mid-to-high $40,000s - sits between the rates at which Dorian earned $2.14 and $4.54 a share, so $56.82 is 12.5 to 26.6 times what the term market pays for.
derivedC12 gives the five-year rate as mid-to-high $40,000s a day. C19 gives two filed years either side of it: FY2025 at $39,778 a day earned $2.14 a share and FY2026 at $52,238 earned $4.54. $56.82 divided by each is 26.6 and 12.5. No model: both endpoints are filed years at rates that bracket the contract rate, and the fleet was a similar size in both. What it ignores is that four ships have since been sold and four newbuildings ordered, and that the relationship between rate and profit is not linear - the FY2026 step carried about 82% of the extra revenue to net income, so the true figure at $47,000 is nearer the lower end of the range than the middle.
against this
  • Both years carried a lower cash balance than the roughly $600M management reported in August, so interest income is understated in each.
  • FY2026 included no gains on vessel sales and FY2027 already carries $30,116,869 from the Cobra alone; selling ships into a strong asset market is a real and repeatable part of this company's earnings.
  • If the term market is simply wrong - if charterers systematically underpay at the top of a cycle - the whole comparison reverses, and the 2023-24 episode is a case where spot stayed above term for eighteen months.
current state · 2026-09-15written 2026-09-16
01

The company

Propane and butane are gases, so to cross an ocean they are cooled to about minus 42 degrees and carried as liquid. Dorian owns 19 very large carriers built for that, each holding about 44,000 tonnes, and hires in six more. There is no pipeline across the Pacific; the only alternative is a smaller, costlier ship.

Every ship sails in the Helios Pool, run jointly with MOL Energia, which markets 29 ships as one fleet and shares the revenue by formula.

The evidence under this - 2 claims
C01facthigh confidence
Dorian owns 19 very large gas carriers and hires in six more; the 25 ships carry liquefied petroleum gas - propane and butane - by sea.
current state · 2026-07-30written 2026-09-16
C02facthigh confidence
Net pool revenue from one related party, the Helios Pool, was $187,804,115 of $187,884,848 of Q1 FY2027 revenue - 99.96%.
historical · Q1 FY2027written 2026-09-16

How it makes money

The pool rents the ships out mostly voyage by voyage, at the going rate on the day, so Dorian's revenue is roughly the market rate times the days its ships are free to work. Almost all of it, 99.96% last quarter, arrives as one payment from the pool. A ship costs about $26,000 to $27,000 a day in cash to run, so every dollar of rate above that is profit.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C02facthigh confidence
Net pool revenue from one related party, the Helios Pool, was $187,804,115 of $187,884,848 of Q1 FY2027 revenue - 99.96%.
historical · Q1 FY2027written 2026-09-16
C29facthigh confidence
Daily vessel operating expenses were $10,356 per ship in Q1 FY2027, and the chief financial officer guided a cash cost of about $26,000 to $27,000 a day for the coming year, excluding the Captain John's planned drydocking.
forwardwritten 2026-09-16
C37facthigh confidence
Seven Dorian vessels are chartered out within the Helios Pool with expiries between Q1 2027 and Q2 2030, leaving spot exposure of just over 75% of the pool's 29 ships; no rate is disclosed on any of them.
current state · 2026-07-30written 2026-09-16
Where the money comes from, stream by stream
StreamShare of sales (FY2026)How it earns it
Net pool revenues - related party (Helios Pool)98.6%Each ship takes a share of the Helios Pool's net freight income, by days in the pool and pool points; the pool mostly trades spot.
Other revenues, net1.4%Charterers, mainly the pool, reimbursing security guards and war-risk insurance on voyages through high-risk areas.
Time charter revenues0% (2.3% in FY2025)Fixed daily hire on charters outside the pool; none in FY2026, the remaining fixed charters now running inside the pool.

Who runs it

John Hadjipateras has run Dorian since it was formed in 2013 and has worked in shipping since the early seventies; Ted Young has run the money just as long, and the operating chief is Hadjipateras's son. Insiders control roughly one vote in seven, mostly through Hadjipateras, though under half of his block is his own stock. The yearly bonus rides mainly on profit before depreciation, which follows freight rates, and last year's target sat below the weakest recent year.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C48facthigh confidence
John C. Hadjipateras, 76, has been chairman, president and chief executive since Dorian's inception in July 2013 and in shipping management since 1972; Theodore B. Young, 58, has been chief financial officer since July 2013 after private equity; Tim Hansen has been chief commercial officer since 2018 and chairs the Helios Pool board; Alexander C. Hadjipateras, 47, the chief executive's son, has been chief operating officer since April 2024.
current state · 2026-07-27written 2026-10-04
C46facthigh confidence
At 14 July 2026 the 12 directors and executive officers as a group beneficially owned 5,792,680 shares, 13.5%; the chief executive John C. Hadjipateras 4,899,098, 11.5%, of which 1,837,238 he holds solely and 2,877,696 he votes under revocable proxies from family members and related holders. BlackRock at 12.7% and Dimensional at 5.8% are the other holders above 5%; there is one class of stock.
against this
  • The proxied shares are voted, not owned: the chief executive's own sole holding is about 4.3% of the company, and he disclaims beneficial ownership beyond his pecuniary interest.
  • BlackRock's figure dates from a January 2024 filing and may have moved since.
current state · 2026-07-14written 2026-10-04
C47facthigh confidence
Dorian's FY2026 annual bonus targeted 100% of salary, paying 0% to 200% on EBITDA (40%), two safety rates (25%) and personal goals (35%); the EBITDA target was $167.0M with a $205.0M maximum against $310.4M achieved, and the chief executive received $1,359,375 on a $750,000 salary. Long-term awards became 80% time-vesting restricted stock and 20% PSUs on return on net invested capital and relative shareholder return, the first PSUs granted.
against this
  • The EBITDA target sat below the $206.0M of adjusted EBITDA earned in FY2025 (C44), the weakest of the three filed years, and EBITDA moves with the freight index management does not set (C33), so 40% of the bonus paid on the market.
  • The personal component was paid at the maximum on the chief executive's recommendation for the team.
  • Shareholders approved the pay advisorily by 26,477,726 votes to 1,131,073, though 38.1% voted against the larger share plan (C42).
historical · FY2026written 2026-10-04
02

Why it wins, and who could beat it

Why customers come back

There is none. The rate is set on a published index for every owner at once, and about 129 owners share the fleet, the ten largest holding 41% of the ships. The proof: BW LPG, the other big listed owner, earned $74,000 a day last quarter against Dorian's $75,926, two fleets and two sales teams within 2.6%.

Dorian's younger ships, 10.5 years old on average against 11.7, cost a little less to run. That edge is real, and small.

The evidence under this - 2 claims
C27factmedium confidence
There were approximately 129 owners in the world VLGC fleet as at 22 May 2026, with the top ten holding 41% of the ships; Dorian's owned vessels average 10.5 years against a global fleet average of 11.7.
current state · 2026-05-22written 2026-09-16
C28factmedium confidence
BW LPG's shipping arm earned $74,000 per available day in the quarter to 30 June 2026 against Dorian's $75,926 - a gap of 2.6% between two different fleets and two different commercial teams.
against this
  • BW's figure is struck after negative accounting and hedging adjustments of $16.4M and $12.0M, so the underlying gap is not 2.6%.
  • BW carried 53% of its days on time charter at $64,000 while Dorian ran about 75% spot, so the two rates are mixes of different things and their closeness is partly coincidence.
  • A single quarter in an extreme market is the worst place to look for a durable cost or commercial advantage in either direction.
historical · quarter ended 30 June 2026written 2026-09-16

The threat

The threat is more ships. 155 very large carriers are on order, about 35.7% of today's fleet, and 50 were ordered in a single quarter. Many are built for ammonia but can carry propane just as well whenever ammonia demand disappoints. Traders such as Petredec also own fleets and carry cargo in direct competition with owners like Dorian.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C14facthigh confidence
The combined orderbook is 155 very large gas and ammonia carriers, about 13.9 million cbm, roughly 35.7% of the existing fleet, delivering through calendar 2030 - and 50 of those orders were placed in Q2 2026 alone.
against this
  • The chief executive points out the orderbook peaked above 50% of the fleet in 2007, so 35.7% is large rather than unprecedented.
  • 78 of the 124 ships Dorian counted in May were ammonia carriers, and if ammonia demand arrives they carry ammonia rather than competing for LPG cargoes.
  • About 9% of the existing fleet is 25 years or older, so some of the additions replace ships that will leave.
current state · 2026-08-05written 2026-09-16
C39factmedium confidence
78 of the 124 vessels Dorian counted on order in May 2026 were ammonia carriers, and the count Dorian used in August is stated as 155 'VLGCs/VLACs' - the same hull competing for either cargo. Dorian's own newest ship, the 93,000 cbm Areion, is one, and four more of its vessels are fitted to carry ammonia.
current state · 2026-08-05written 2026-09-16
C38facthigh confidence
Dorian's Item 1 says LPG distributors and traders use their fleets to carry third-party cargoes 'in direct competition with independent owners', and names Petredec, a private Singapore trading house that owns ships, among its three largest competitors.
current state · 2026-05-22written 2026-09-16

The rivals: BWLP, and 3 more that are private, in-house or listed abroad.

Who else does this, rival by rival
TickerRivalHow far alongPriced against it
Not listedThe 90,000 to 93,000 cbm very large ammonia carrier (VLAC) - the hull type that was 78 of the 124 ships Dorian counted on order in May 2026Priced against it: Not listedOn saleNot listed
PrivatePetredec Pte. Ltd.Priced against it: PrivateOn salePrivate
Not listedMedium gas carriers of 38,000 to 60,000 cbmPriced against it: Not listedOn saleNot listed
BWLPBW LPGPriced against it: Same productOn saleSame product
03

How big it could get

How big this could get

America now ships about 65% of the world's seaborne propane and butane, up from under half a year earlier, and exported a record 1.8 million barrels a day of propane in 2025. Nobody publicly counts how much of that travels on very large carriers rather than smaller ships, so the market can only be bounded, against a world fleet of about 427 of these ships.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C10management claimlow confidence
Management says the United States now accounts for approximately 65% of global seaborne LPG exports, up from less than 50% a year ago.
against this
  • The figure is unsourced and no public agency publishes a global seaborne LPG export split; EIA measures US exports and not the denominator.
  • A jump from under 50% to 65% in a year is a measure of the Middle East's absence rather than of American growth, and it reverses with a reopening.
current state · 2026-08-05written 2026-09-16
C09facthigh confidence
US propane exports averaged a record 1.8 million barrels a day in 2025, up 3%, and normal butane a record 535,000 barrels a day, up 9%.
historical · calendar 2025written 2026-09-16
C27factmedium confidence
There were approximately 129 owners in the world VLGC fleet as at 22 May 2026, with the top ten holding 41% of the ships; Dorian's owned vessels average 10.5 years against a global fleet average of 11.7.
current state · 2026-05-22written 2026-09-16
C14facthigh confidence
The combined orderbook is 155 very large gas and ammonia carriers, about 13.9 million cbm, roughly 35.7% of the existing fleet, delivering through calendar 2030 - and 50 of those orders were placed in Q2 2026 alone.
against this
  • The chief executive points out the orderbook peaked above 50% of the fleet in 2007, so 35.7% is large rather than unprecedented.
  • 78 of the 124 ships Dorian counted in May were ammonia carriers, and if ammonia demand arrives they carry ammonia rather than competing for LPG cargoes.
  • About 9% of the existing fleet is 25 years or older, so some of the additions replace ships that will leave.
current state · 2026-08-05written 2026-09-16

Who has signed

Seven of Dorian's 19 ships are rented out on longer contracts, ending between early 2027 and mid-2030, at rates nobody outside the company knows. The rest of the pool, just over 75% of its 29 ships, works at the day's rate.

The evidence under this - 1 claim
C37facthigh confidence
Seven Dorian vessels are chartered out within the Helios Pool with expiries between Q1 2027 and Q2 2030, leaving spot exposure of just over 75% of the pool's 29 ships; no rate is disclosed on any of them.
current state · 2026-07-30written 2026-09-16
04

The results

The numbers

Is it growing?Fast

Sales grew 81% over the twelve months to Jun 2026, faster than the 36% in the year to Mar 2026.

Mar 2022: $274MMar 2023: $390MMar 2024: $561MMar 2025: $353MMar 2026: $482M12 mo to Jun 2026: $585M$274M$585M
Is it profitable?Strong

Operating margin is 58%, about where it was (59%) in the year to Mar 2024.

Mar 2022: 34%Mar 2023: 51%Mar 2024: 59%Mar 2025: 32%Mar 2026: 44%12 mo to Jun 2026: 58%34%58%
How steady is it?Swingy

Yearly sales growth has ranged from −37% to +44% over the last 5 years, with sales falling in 2 of them.

Mar 2022: −13%Mar 2023: +42%Mar 2024: +44%Mar 2025: −37%Mar 2026: +36%−13%+36%
Does it earn good returns?Strong

Shareholders' money earned 28% a year, up from 7.7% in the year to Mar 2022.

Mar 2022: 7.7%Mar 2023: 19%Mar 2024: 32%Mar 2025: 8.7%Mar 2026: 18%12 mo to Jun 2026: 28%7.7%28%
Is it making cash?Strong

The business brought in $240M of cash from operations, 41% of sales, before capital spending, which the filer does not tag.

Mar 2022: $119MMar 2023: $224MMar 2024: $388MMar 2025: $173MMar 2026: $210M12 mo to Jun 2026: $240M$119M$240M
Is the balance sheet safe?Light debt

It owes $165M more than the cash it holds, about 0.7 years of the cash its operations bring in.

Mar 2022: −$426MMar 2023: −$509MMar 2024: −$311MMar 2025: −$236MMar 2026: −$233M12 mo to Jun 2026: −$165M−$426M−$165M
Are shares being diluted?Creeping

The share count rose 5.9% in 4.3 years, and pay in shares costs 1.9% of sales.

Mar 2022: 40.4MMar 2023: 40.2MMar 2024: 40.5MMar 2025: 42.2MMar 2026: 42.6M12 mo to Jun 2026: 42.7M40.4M42.7M
All the numbers

Filed figures from the company's 10-K and 10-Q, read 2026-10-04. Fiscal years end in March.

Mar 2022Mar 2023Mar 2024Mar 2025Mar 202612 mo to Jun 2026
Size and growth
Sales$274M$390M$561M$353M$482M$585M
Sales growth−13%+42%+44%−37%+36%+81%
Profit
Operating margin34%51%59%32%44%58%
Net margin26%44%55%26%40%55%
What growth costs, per sales dollar
General and admin11%8.2%7.0%12%11%8.5%
Pay in shares1.2%1.1%1.5%2.9%2.3%1.9%
Capital spending8.5%18%----
Cash
Cash from operations$119M$224M$388M$173M$210M$240M
Free cash flow$95.5M$155M----
Balance sheet
Cash and short-term investments$237M$149M$294M$317M$327M$342M
Debt$663M$657M$605M$553M$560M$508M
Net cash−$426M−$509M−$311M−$236M−$233M−$165M
Returns and shares
Shares (diluted)40.4M40.2M40.5M42.2M42.6M42.7M

What growth costs

Dorian does not spend to grow the way a software or chip company does: it has no research or sales budget, and running a ship costs about the same each year. Sales rise and fall with the freight rate. Office overhead and stock pay have kept pace with sales over the cycle, so margins swing with the rate rather than widening as the company grows.

The evidence under this - 2 claims
C50facthigh confidence
Per sales dollar, general and administrative expense was 10.7 cents in FY2021, 11.0 in FY2022, 8.2 in FY2023, 7.0 in FY2024, 12.1 in FY2025, 11.0 in FY2026 and 8.5 over the four quarters to June 2026; stock pay rose from 1.1 to 2.3 cents. Dorian reports no research or selling line; vessel operating expenses were $80.5M, $85.4M and $81.0M in FY2024 to FY2026. The numbers card's capital spending is blank from FY2024 because the filer reports it as payments for vessels under construction and other vessel capital expenditures, $32.9M, $18.9M and $93.8M.
historical · FY2021 to the four quarters to June 2026written 2026-10-04
C29facthigh confidence
Daily vessel operating expenses were $10,356 per ship in Q1 FY2027, and the chief financial officer guided a cash cost of about $26,000 to $27,000 a day for the coming year, excluding the Captain John's planned drydocking.
forwardwritten 2026-09-16

The last report (5 Aug)

Quarter ended June 2026, filed figures.

123%
Sales growth
against the same quarter a year earlier
22.6%
Growth from the quarter before
against 27.8% the quarter before that
76¢
Operating profit
per dollar of sales

The first quarter of fiscal 2027, which ended in June, was Dorian's best: $75,926 a day per ship, up 91.1% on a year earlier, as the benchmark freight rate roughly tripled. The strait's closure cut Middle East loadings by more than 70%, and American exports hit a record 7.3 million tonnes in May.

The next quarter is already locked in: 99% of September-quarter days are fixed above $88,000 a day. That peak is what the price is reading.

What it did to the thesisIt is the peak our case is about. The record rate comes from a war closing a shipping route, not from anything Dorian controls, and longer charters pay far less. It confirms the earnings are a windfall the price treats as lasting, so the view stays Unattractive.

The quarter in detail

Sales growth from the previous quarter, filed figures.

Earnings per share $2.52 against $2.12 expected; $3.24 as filed, the gap being what the company adds back.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C03facthigh confidence
The time charter equivalent rate was $75,926 per available day in Q1 FY2027, up 91.1% from $39,726, and the highest Dorian has reported.
historical · Q1 FY2027written 2026-09-16
C04facthigh confidence
The Baltic VLGC index averaged $199.694 a tonne in Q1 FY2027 against $63.500 a year earlier, and about $190 a tonne in Q2 2026 against about $95 in Q1 2026.
historical · Q1 FY2027written 2026-09-16
C05management claimmedium confidence
Management said the closure of the Strait of Hormuz cut Middle East liftings to roughly 3.4 million tonnes in the quarter, down more than 70% year on year.
against this
  • BW LPG puts the same fall at 46% year on year for the first half of 2026 on VLGC-carried volumes - a different measure over a different window, and less severe.
  • Neither figure is filed; both are the operators' reading of a commercial cargo-tracking series.
historical · Q1 FY2027written 2026-09-16
C08factmedium confidence
US LPG exports rose from about 18 million tonnes in Q1 2026 to more than 21 million tonnes in Q2 2026, a record 7.3 million tonnes in May.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-09-16
C13facthigh confidence
Dorian has fixed 99% of its calendar days for the quarter ending 30 September 2026 at a rate in excess of $88,000 a day.
forwardwritten 2026-09-16
What management did with the money

It has been selling into the boom: three ships sold this year, one of them eleven years old for more than she cost new, and a fourth under contract. It has ordered four new ships for 2029 and 2030. Cash stood at almost $600M in early August.

Insiders in 2026Q2: 0 purchases and 5 sales, from their Form 4 filings.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C22facthigh confidence
Dorian sold three vessels during 2026 - Cobra for $81.9M net with a $30,116,869 gain, Corsair for $80.8M and Constellation for $85.6M - and has signed to sell a fourth, the Clermont.
historical · Q1 FY2027 and July 2026written 2026-09-16
C23management claimmedium confidence
The chief financial officer said the Cobra's sale price was greater than her contract price when she was ordered in 2015 - an eleven-year-old ship sold for more than she cost new.
against this
  • A 2015 contract price is not a like-for-like comparison with 2026 money; the chief executive's own history has newbuilding prices under $70M until 2021 and about $115M now, so much of the gap is shipyard inflation rather than a scarcity premium on the ship itself.
  • The comparison is management's and is not reconciled in any filing.
historical · Q4 FY2026written 2026-09-16
C24facthigh confidence
Dorian has contracted four newbuildings: three 90,000 cbm dual-fuel Panamax carriers from Hanwha Ocean for about $345M delivering in June, September and December 2030, and one from HD Hyundai for Q3 2029 carrying $115,300,000 of commitments at 30 June 2026.
current state · 2026-09-04written 2026-09-16
C35facthigh confidence
Cash was $342,141,482 and long-term debt net of fees $507,529,000 at 30 June 2026; the chief financial officer put debt to total book capitalisation at 29.3%, net debt to total capitalisation at 9.7% and the all-in cost of debt at about 5.1%, and said the cash balance stood at almost $600M in early August.
current state · 2026-08-05written 2026-09-16
05

The price, and where we disagree

In short. Full. The price assumes today's wartime shipping rate lasts. Ship-hirers signing five-year deals are paying about half of it.

Share price
$56.82
close,
Price for each $1 of net worth
2.0
its 6-year normal 0.9

Because the rate is at a peak and the price has followed it. The last time a disruption lifted the rate, in 2024, the shares reached $51.66 and then fell 67.7% within a year as the rate fell 36%.

The next reading comes on 5 November, with the September-quarter results and the rate fixed for December.

The evidence under this - 2 claims
C21facthigh confidence
Dorian's shares reached a monthly high of $51.66 in May 2024 and a monthly low of $16.66 in April 2025 - a fall of 67.7% - as the rate fell from $62,129 a day in FY2024 to $39,778 in FY2025.
historical · May 2024 to April 2025written 2026-09-16
C13facthigh confidence
Dorian has fixed 99% of its calendar days for the quarter ending 30 September 2026 at a rate in excess of $88,000 a day.
forwardwritten 2026-09-16
How we read the multiple

Buyers pay about $2 for each $1 of Dorian's net worth, what it owns minus what it owes, against about 90 cents in its own past years. That only makes sense if today's rate lasts.

Ship-hirers will commit for five years at the mid-to-high $40,000s a day. At such rates Dorian has earned between $2.14 and $4.54 a share a year, so the price is 12.5 to 26.6 times that profit.

Against its own history. Roughly twice what buyers have normally paid for each dollar of its net worth, struck on the best rate the company has ever reported.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C18facthigh confidence
At $56.82 on 15 September 2026 the shares cost $1.97 for each dollar of that net worth, against $0.91 on average in Dorian's own prior fiscal years.
against this
  • Net worth is depreciated cost. Dorian sold the 2015-built Cobra for $81,900,000 at a gain of $30,116,869, which implies a carrying value of about $51.8M and a market value 1.58 times it - so the fleet is worth more than the balance sheet says and the true premium to asset value is smaller.
  • Second-hand values are themselves at a cyclical extreme: the chief financial officer said the Cobra sold for more than her 2015 contract price, and BW LPG booked gains of about $36M and $37M on two 2007-built ships. A net asset value struck on those prices is struck on the same spike as the earnings.
  • The prior-year median is a median of fiscal-year-end readings taken over a period that included two troughs, so it is not a neutral benchmark either.
current state · 2026-09-15written 2026-09-16
C20estimatemedium confidence
The rate charterers will commit to for five years - the mid-to-high $40,000s - sits between the rates at which Dorian earned $2.14 and $4.54 a share, so $56.82 is 12.5 to 26.6 times what the term market pays for.
derivedC12 gives the five-year rate as mid-to-high $40,000s a day. C19 gives two filed years either side of it: FY2025 at $39,778 a day earned $2.14 a share and FY2026 at $52,238 earned $4.54. $56.82 divided by each is 26.6 and 12.5. No model: both endpoints are filed years at rates that bracket the contract rate, and the fleet was a similar size in both. What it ignores is that four ships have since been sold and four newbuildings ordered, and that the relationship between rate and profit is not linear - the FY2026 step carried about 82% of the extra revenue to net income, so the true figure at $47,000 is nearer the lower end of the range than the middle.
against this
  • Both years carried a lower cash balance than the roughly $600M management reported in August, so interest income is understated in each.
  • FY2026 included no gains on vessel sales and FY2027 already carries $30,116,869 from the Cobra alone; selling ships into a strong asset market is a real and repeatable part of this company's earnings.
  • If the term market is simply wrong - if charterers systematically underpay at the top of a cycle - the whole comparison reverses, and the 2023-24 episode is a case where spot stayed above term for eighteen months.
current state · 2026-09-15written 2026-09-16
C19facthigh confidence
Over the three years the filings cover, Dorian earned $2.14 a share at a rate of $39,778 a day in FY2025 and $4.54 at $52,238 in FY2026, on 8,776 and 9,113 available days.
historical · FY2025 and FY2026written 2026-09-16
C12facthigh confidence
BW LPG has fixed a 2016-built dual-fuel vessel on a five-year time charter in the mid-to-high $40,000s a day, delivering at the end of 2026.
against this
  • It is one ship and one counterparty, disclosed as a range rather than a number, and a 2016-built vessel is not the same asset as a 2026 newbuilding.
  • A five-year rate is struck partly on the charterer's own view, so it can be wrong in the same direction the spot market is right; the 2023-24 cycle's term rates also sat below a spot market that stayed high for eighteen months.
  • Dorian's own chartering officer says there is 'appetite out in the market' for multi-year cover, which is the same fact read as demand rather than as a price.
current state · 2026-08-28written 2026-09-16
Priced against its rivals

Only BW LPG sells the same thing to the same buyers as a large part of what it does. A price comparison needs at least two, so the price is judged against its own history instead.

Private or foreign rivals that cannot be priced: Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha (NYK Line), Petredec Pte. Ltd.

Where we disagree with the market

The market believes

A cheap cash machine whose rate eases from 2028; most analysts say hold and none sell.

We believe

The rate is a war's windfall, paid into a fleet growing 35.7% by 2030. Both unwind.

The market is not naive: analysts already model revenue falling to $419.7M in fiscal 2028, from $585.2M over the last year. But the evidence that the rate is borrowed sits outside Dorian's filings: a rival's five-year charter price, and a pile of new orders that grew by a quarter in ten weeks.

We would be wrong if Middle East loadings recover and the rate still holds above $60,000 a day, because American volumes alone keep the voyages long.

What analysts say, and the evidence
Analysts positive
80%
of 5, 1 Sep
Four months earlier
57%
of 7, 1 May
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C36factmedium confidence
FMP's snapshot has nine analysts at four buy, five hold and no sell; three carry a FY2028 revenue estimate of $419,658,036 and earnings of $4.36 a share, against $585,184,124 of trailing revenue summed from the four filed quarters to 30 June 2026, and the average price target over the past year was $48.50 with none set in the last month.
current state · 2026-09-16written 2026-09-16
C12facthigh confidence
BW LPG has fixed a 2016-built dual-fuel vessel on a five-year time charter in the mid-to-high $40,000s a day, delivering at the end of 2026.
against this
  • It is one ship and one counterparty, disclosed as a range rather than a number, and a 2016-built vessel is not the same asset as a 2026 newbuilding.
  • A five-year rate is struck partly on the charterer's own view, so it can be wrong in the same direction the spot market is right; the 2023-24 cycle's term rates also sat below a spot market that stayed high for eighteen months.
  • Dorian's own chartering officer says there is 'appetite out in the market' for multi-year cover, which is the same fact read as demand rather than as a price.
current state · 2026-08-28written 2026-09-16
C14facthigh confidence
The combined orderbook is 155 very large gas and ammonia carriers, about 13.9 million cbm, roughly 35.7% of the existing fleet, delivering through calendar 2030 - and 50 of those orders were placed in Q2 2026 alone.
against this
  • The chief executive points out the orderbook peaked above 50% of the fleet in 2007, so 35.7% is large rather than unprecedented.
  • 78 of the 124 ships Dorian counted in May were ammonia carriers, and if ammonia demand arrives they carry ammonia rather than competing for LPG cargoes.
  • About 9% of the existing fleet is 25 years or older, so some of the additions replace ships that will leave.
current state · 2026-08-05written 2026-09-16
C15facthigh confidence
Ten weeks before that, the FY2026 10-K put the orderbook at 124 vessels and 11.1 million cbm through 2029, and the chief executive called it 'nearly 30% of the existing fleet'.
historical · as at 22 May 2026written 2026-09-16
06

What could go wrong, and how we would know

The risks

  • The strait reopens. BW LPG puts full recovery of Middle East exports at 12 to 36 months, and says reopening could shorten voyages overall.
  • The rate is a price gap. Freight clears the gap between American and Asian propane prices, so anything that narrows the gap takes the rate down.
  • Being early. The September quarter is fixed above $88,000 a day and December may be too; the shares can rise a long way on it.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C31management claimmedium confidence
BW LPG says a full reopening of the strait would increase Middle East export volumes but could narrow the US-Far East price gap and reduce overall ton-mile demand, and puts full recovery of Middle East exports at 12 to 36 months.
against this
  • Dorian's chief executive takes the opposite reading, calling the market's treatment of peace as a negative 'kind of silly' and arguing traffic and replenishment increase.
  • Both are interested parties: BW has 41% of its second-half days already fixed at $44,100 and Dorian has 75% of its pool days on spot, so each is describing the exposure it holds.
forwardwritten 2026-09-16
C33inferencemedium confidence
The freight rate is the clearing price of the gap between US Gulf and Far East LPG prices rather than a fee for a service, so anything that narrows the gap takes the rate down with it.
derivedC32 shows freight consuming about a quarter of the delivered cargo price. C04 shows the index tripling when the strait shut. C31 is the largest owner stating that a reopening narrows the price gap and reduces ton-mile demand. Dorian's own release attributes the Q2 2026 rate to 'sentiment-driven arbitrage', vessel rerouting and longer voyages rather than to volume growth. The mechanism: a cargo only sails when the destination price exceeds the origin price by more than the freight, so the freight rate rises to absorb the gap and falls when the gap closes.
against this
  • The gap is not the only constraint: BW says that once new US terminal capacity came online 'vessel availability rather than export infrastructure emerged as the primary bottleneck', which makes the rate a scarcity price on ships as well as a share of the arbitrage.
  • A structurally longer voyage raises the rate even at an unchanged price gap, because the same cargo occupies a ship for longer - so part of the level survives a narrowing.
  • Panama Canal restrictions and war-risk insurance raise the rate through cost rather than through arbitrage, and neither reverses with a ceasefire.
current state · 2026-09-16written 2026-09-16
C13facthigh confidence
Dorian has fixed 99% of its calendar days for the quarter ending 30 September 2026 at a rate in excess of $88,000 a day.
forwardwritten 2026-09-16
What we still do not know
  • When the Strait of Hormuz reopens, and whether that even lowers the rate. The two largest listed owners publicly disagree.
  • What the seven chartered-out ships earn. No rate is disclosed on any of them.
The evidence under this - 2 claims
C31management claimmedium confidence
BW LPG says a full reopening of the strait would increase Middle East export volumes but could narrow the US-Far East price gap and reduce overall ton-mile demand, and puts full recovery of Middle East exports at 12 to 36 months.
against this
  • Dorian's chief executive takes the opposite reading, calling the market's treatment of peace as a negative 'kind of silly' and arguing traffic and replenishment increase.
  • Both are interested parties: BW has 41% of its second-half days already fixed at $44,100 and Dorian has 75% of its pool days on spot, so each is describing the exposure it holds.
forwardwritten 2026-09-16
C37facthigh confidence
Seven Dorian vessels are chartered out within the Helios Pool with expiries between Q1 2027 and Q2 2030, leaving spot exposure of just over 75% of the pool's 29 ships; no rate is disclosed on any of them.
current state · 2026-07-30written 2026-09-16

What would change our view

  1. Unattractive→AttractivePriced near the assets, not near the spot rate

    It needs:

    • ○The price falls to about 1.0 times net worth, close to what Dorian's own past years averaged, from 1.97 today.about $29.37 today, 48% below the last close
  2. Reopens the researchThe earnings stop being the war's

    It needs any of:

    • ○Dorian signs multi-year charters that free its earnings from the day-to-day freight rate.watched as it happens
    • ○Rates on multi-year charters climb toward the day rate, instead of the day rate falling toward them.checked at the next results, due by 5 Nov
We would also be wrong if
  • Middle East loadings recover fully and Dorian's rate still settles above $60,000 a day.
  • The pile of new ships shrinks through cancellations, or scrapping runs far beyond the 9% of the fleet now 25 or older.
  • American exports alone, with no disruption, keep the rate above $70,000 a day.

What is coming

  • 5 November 2026 Q2 FY2027 results, quarter ending 30 September 2026: Whether September books near the $88,000 a day already fixed, what December is fixed at, and whether multi-year charters are still written in the $40,000s.
Every dated event ahead
  • 5 November 2026 Q2 FY2027 results, quarter ending 30 September 2026: Whether September books near the $88,000 a day already fixed, what December is fixed at, and whether multi-year charters are still written in the $40,000s.
  • February 2027 Q3 FY2027 results, quarter ending 31 December 2026: The first quarter after late-2026 newbuild deliveries; whether the rate holds as the fleet grows and Middle East exports recover.
  • June 2027 Sale of the Clermont completes: Whether a third 2015-built ship sells well above book while rates are high, adding cash and shrinking the fleet before the orderbook delivers.
  • December 2027 Nine Chinese propane dehydrogenation plants scheduled to start: Whether new Chinese import demand arrives on schedule to absorb the ships on order, or the plants start late.
Since we wrote this
Written
16 Sep
Price the thesis read
$56.82
15 Sep
  • 5 OctThesis reviewThe long case now sits under the verdictAfter the five-name pilot, the owner asked for the long case on every thesis.
  • 4 OctThesis reviewOwner's checklist: revenue streams, cost of growth, management, catalystsThe owner's checklist found the method silent on who runs the company, what growth costs, where the money comes from and what is dated ahead; this pass fills those four blocks from the proxy and filings.
  • 16 SepThesis writtenUnattractive, medium convictionA war closed the Strait of Hormuz and nearly doubled the daily rate. The price assumes it lasts, while five-year charters are being signed at about half.

Sources 18

Where this came from

Sources - 18

Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.

  1. S01primarycompany filing2026-05-27
    Item 1 business and Competition; the fleet table; the three-year operating statistics table with time charter equivalent rate, available days and adjusted EBITDA for FY2024, FY2025 and FY2026; the buyback authority; the single-segment determination
    backsC15C19C21C27C34C38C39C44C45C49C50
  2. S02primarycompany filing2026-08-05
    the balance sheet, the revenue split between net pool revenue and other, the newbuilding commitment note, share counts, and the Helios Pool variable-interest disclosure
    backsC02C17C24C34C35C36C51
  3. S03primarycompany filing2026-08-05
    the quarter's time charter equivalent rate and available days, the Baltic index averages, the fleet table with charter-out expiries, and the market outlook section carrying the orderbook, US export tonnage, Chinese import tonnage and Far East propane prices
    backsC01C03C04C08C14C22C28C29C30C32C36C37C39
  4. S04primarytranscript2026-08-05
    Dorian LPG Q1 FY2027 earnings call transcript
    management's account of the Hormuz closure and Middle East liftings, the cash and debt figures between filings, the guided cash cost per day, the pool's spot exposure; and two analyst questions - Clarksons on capital allocation, Jefferies on the orderbook - that produced the chief executive's statement about the orderbook
    The United States now accounts for approximately 65% of global seaborne LPG exports, up from less than 50% a year ago.
    backsC05C10C22C25C29C34C35C37C41
  5. S05primarycompany filing2026-09-04
    the September quarter forward fixture, the three Hanwha Ocean newbuildings and their price, the seven-year $368.4M credit facility, and the current fleet count
    backsC01C13C24C40
  6. S06primarycompany filing2026-05-20
    the FY2026 full-year revenue, net income, earnings per share and time charter equivalent rate, and the Q4 FY2026 quarter against Q4 FY2025
    backsC19C36C44
  7. S07primarytranscript2026-05-20
    Dorian LPG Q4 FY2026 earnings call transcript
    the chief executive's twenty-year newbuilding price history and his orderbook framing, and the chief financial officer's statement that the Cobra sold for more than her 2015 contract price
    backsC15C23
  8. S08primarycompany filing2026-08-28
    the largest competitor's own realised rate, its 2H 2026 fixed charter cover, the five-year charter it signed, the orderbook and delivery count, the Middle East and US cargo movements, and its statement on what a reopening of Hormuz would do
    backsC06C11C12C14C16C28C31C41C43
  9. S09primarycompany filing2026-03-31
    the peer's own description of the product and the buyer, used to gate it into the filed competitor set
    read, but no claim rests on it
  10. S10primarygovernment data2026-05-12
    the government's own assessment of how long the strait was shut, and its statement that US propane exports will likely increase through 2027 as Asian buyers replace Middle East supply
    the Strait of Hormuz will remain effectively closed through late May, with traffic gradually resuming in June
    backsC07
  11. S11primarygovernment data2026-04-07
    the size of the Gulf production shut-in, measured outside the shipping industry
    Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain collectively shut in 7.5 million barrels per day (b/d) of crude oil production in March.
    backsC07
  12. S12primarygovernment data2026-03
    the driver's rate from a statistical agency rather than from the company: propane and butane export volumes and their growth
    U.S. propane exports averaged a record 1.8 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2025 ... U.S. propane exports rose just 3% compared with the previous year ... U.S. normal butane exports have increased every year since 2006, reaching a record-high average of nearly 535,000 b/d in 2025, a 9% increase from the previous year.
    backsC09
  13. S13primaryvendor data2026-09-16
    Research pack, LPG, 16 September 2026
    price and the 52-week range, price to book against its own prior-year median, the price-move decomposition, the analyst split and its history, the sell side's forward estimates and price-target drift, short interest and the insider base rate
    backsC18C36
  14. S14primarycompany filing2026-09-16
    Dorian LPG Forms 4, September 2025 to September 2026, read through insider_fetch.py
    every open-market transaction with its Rule 10b5-1 flag read off the filing itself - sixteen sales, one purchase, none of the sales scheduled
    backsC26
  15. S15primarycompany filing2026-09-14
    the vote on the amended equity incentive plan - 17,099,624 for against 10,536,213 withheld
    backsC42C47
  16. S16primaryvendor data2026-09-16
    Interactive Brokers monthly price history, LPG, five years to 16 September 2026
    the monthly high and low series that dates the prior repricing: $51.66 in May 2024 and $16.66 in April 2025
    backsC21
  17. S17primarycompany filing2026-07-27
    beneficial ownership at 14 July 2026 with the revocable proxies behind the chief executive's figure, executive officers' biographies and family ties, the FY2026 bonus metrics, goals and payouts, and the long-term award mix and PSU metrics
    backsC46C47C48
  18. S18primarycompany filing2026-10-04
    six years of revenue, general and administrative expense, stock pay and operating income as the filer tagged them, for the cost-per-sales-dollar reading
    backsC50
Rendered from content/LPG/thesis.json · thesis reviewed 2026-09-16. This page explains a company; it does not say what to pay, when to buy or how much.