Marqeta
The company behind the cards that apps like Cash App hand out: it approves each swipe and settles the money in a fraction of a second.
Our viewNeutral Medium conviction
The scores
The profile · 1-4
Growth3/4 ↓
Volume up 31% and gross profit 24% in 2025, but the record of growth is under two years and about 4 points came from TransactPay.
Business quality2/4 ↓
Customers stay but re-price and split volume; Chime proved a big customer can build its own, and Visa and Stripe sell the same job.
Financial position4/4 →
$700.9M of cash and investments, no debt, and operations fund the investment; the cash has fallen only through buybacks.
Execution record3/4 ↑
Beat its 2025 and 2026 guides, but the 2024 launch delays cut a quarter's outlook by 9 points and a renewal slipped a quarter.
Per share capture4/4 →
Buybacks far exceed stock pay: diluted shares fell 7.6% in a year, and the acquisitions were paid in cash.
Potential2/4 →
It handles about 1.8% of Visa and Mastercard volume, but more share needs new signings nobody has disclosed, against falling prices.
Risk profile2/4 →
Block is 41% of revenue and its contract ends June 2028, inside the horizon; one renewal decides a large share of the business.
Valuation3/4 ↑
About 18 times profit after stock pay prices the guided business; 7.4 times before it is cheap only if stock pay is free.
Evidence quality3/4 →
Filed figures and outside witnesses on the threat, but Cash App's move and the next renewals rest on management's word.
The Verdict
We rate Marqeta neutral. It runs the systems that approve card payments for apps such as Cash App, and the business is solid: card spending through it keeps growing fast and it holds a large pile of cash and no debt. But its biggest customers pay less each year, and Block, its largest, is sending new cards elsewhere. The price is fair: after paying staff in shares it is about 18 times this year's profit, right if growth slows as the company forecasts, with no cushion if it slows more. What the view hinges on is whether profit growth comes back in 2027 once Cash App's new cards are gone.
The long caseCompanies keep moving their cards onto modern processors faster than prices fall, so volume growth turns into rising profit and cash.
The evidence under this - 8 claims
C01facthigh confidence
Marqeta runs card issuing and transaction processing for companies that put cards in their own apps: its core service is issuer processing, with bank and network management, program management and add-ons such as fraud scoring; it holds no bank licence in the US, and partner banks issue the cards.
C04facthigh confidence
In Q2 2026 net revenue was $176.0M, up 17%, gross profit $121.9M, up 17%, TPV $120.4B, up 32%, GAAP net income $7.6M and Adjusted EBITDA $37.4M.
C05management claimmedium confidence
Marqeta guides Q3 2026 net revenue growth of 6% to 8% and gross profit growth of 5% to 7%, and full-year 2026 net revenue growth of 12% to 13%, gross profit growth of 11% to 12%, Adjusted EBITDA growth in the low 30s and GAAP net income in the high $20 millions; the second half is about 2 points lower than assumed in February.
sourceMarqeta Q2 2026 results release, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1primaryMarqeta Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held…primary
against this
- Adjusted EBITDA guidance was raised in May and again in August, so the profit line has run ahead of plan.
- The gross profit outlook for the second half was cut by about 2 points since February, on a customer splitting volume and a worse delivery mix.
C06management claimmedium confidence
Marqeta's gross profit per dollar of card spending was about 0.10% in Q2 2026, down from about 0.11% a year earlier; management puts it on more volume from large customers on volume-tiered prices, bigger deals at lower prices, and faster growth abroad.
sourceMarqeta Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held…primaryMarqeta Q4 2025 earnings call transcript (FMP), held…primary
against this
- The filed figures agree: Q2 2026 gross profit grew 17% against TPV up 32% (C04), which is a falling rate whatever the cause.
- Part of the fall is the Block price tier reached in December 2025 (C09), a one-time step rather than a trend.
C07facthigh confidence
Block was 45%, 47% and 68% of net revenue in 2025, 2024 and 2023, and 41% in Q2 2026 against 46% a year earlier.
C09management claimmedium confidence
Management says Cash App began sending new card issuance to other providers in mid-June 2026 and will send Marqeta little to none by year-end, costing about 2 points of second-half gross profit growth and a little more in 2027; Block also reached a cheaper price tier in December 2025, costing about 3 points in 2026.
sourceMarqeta Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held…primaryMarqeta Q4 2025 earnings call transcript (FMP), held…primary
against this
- Management also says existing Cash App cards stay, Block's programs grew well in Q2, and it expects to remain the primary provider.
- Tiered pricing means lost volume falls into a dearer tier, so the gross profit hit may be smaller than the volume hit, by management's account.
C11facthigh confidence
Cash and short-term investments were $700.9M at June 30, 2026, down from $1.10B at the end of 2024, with no debt; a further $260.6M of restricted cash is matched by money owed to European clients.
C15estimatemedium confidence
At $17.03 on 104.1M shares the company is worth about $1.77B, or about $1.07B after its $700.9M of cash; that is about 7.4 times 2026 guided Adjusted EBITDA of about $145M, about 18 times that figure less about $85M of stock pay, and about 2.2 times guided gross profit of about $488M.
derivedPrice from the pack (2026-10-05 close); shares from the 10-Q cover (C14); cash from C11; Adjusted EBITDA $109.6M grown by the low-30s guide, 31% to 34%, gives $143.6M to $146.9M (C05, C12); stock pay is the first half's $42.4M doubled; gross profit $437.3M grown 11% to 12% (C03, C05).
against this
- Q3 2026 buybacks are not yet filed, so both the share count and the cash are overstated by whatever was bought since June.
- Stock pay fell from $105M in 2025 to a pace near $85M, and the adjusted multiple would read cheap if that keeps falling.
The company
When you tap a Cash App card, a bank's network asks someone whether to approve it. For many apps that someone is Marqeta: it issues the cards, approves or declines each payment in real time by asking the app's own system, and settles the money.
Without it, an app would have to build that processor itself or rent one from an older bank-software company. Rivals such as Global Payments and WEX name it as a competitor in their own annual reports.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C01facthigh confidence
Marqeta runs card issuing and transaction processing for companies that put cards in their own apps: its core service is issuer processing, with bank and network management, program management and add-ons such as fraud scoring; it holds no bank licence in the US, and partner banks issue the cards.
C02facthigh confidence
Its platform lets a customer decide each card payment in real time: 'Just-in-Time Funding' asks the customer's own system whether to approve and fund each authorisation, and it is certified in more than 40 countries.
C25facthigh confidence
Expensify changed its card's issuing bank to Bancorp in February 2024 and kept Marqeta as processor; its agreement, renewed in June 2022, now renews each year unless either side gives 90 days' notice.
C48facthigh confidence
Global Payments and WEX each name Marqeta in their 10-Ks as a processor competing in card issuing.
How it makes money
Marqeta earns a sliver of every dollar spent on the cards it runs: mostly a share of the fee the shop pays the card network, less what it passes back to customers and banks.
In 2025 that left $437.3M of gross profit on $382.5B of spending, about 10 cents on every $100. Block alone was 45% of revenue.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C03facthigh confidence
In 2025 net revenue was $624.9M, up 23%, gross profit $437.3M, up 24%, and card spending processed (TPV) $382.5B, up 31% from $291.1B.
C06management claimmedium confidence
Marqeta's gross profit per dollar of card spending was about 0.10% in Q2 2026, down from about 0.11% a year earlier; management puts it on more volume from large customers on volume-tiered prices, bigger deals at lower prices, and faster growth abroad.
sourceMarqeta Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held…primaryMarqeta Q4 2025 earnings call transcript (FMP), held…primary
against this
- The filed figures agree: Q2 2026 gross profit grew 17% against TPV up 32% (C04), which is a falling rate whatever the cause.
- Part of the fall is the Block price tier reached in December 2025 (C09), a one-time step rather than a trend.
C33facthigh confidence
Sutton Bank settled 64% of TPV in 2025, against 70% in 2024 and 76% in 2023; Marqeta keeps all interchange under that agreement, which runs to 2029.
C07facthigh confidence
Block was 45%, 47% and 68% of net revenue in 2025, 2024 and 2023, and 41% in Q2 2026 against 46% a year earlier.
Where the money comes from, stream by stream
| Stream | Share of sales (FY2025) | How it earns it |
|---|---|---|
| Platform services | 95.1% | Fees for processing card payments, mostly interchange net of what is shared back with customers, network and bank costs. |
| Other services | 4.9% | Card fulfilment: making and shipping physical cards for customers' programs. |
Who runs it
Mike Milotich, finance chief since 2022, became chief executive in September 2025, and a former Stripe executive took over finance in February 2026. The founder, Jason Gardner, holds 46.92% of the votes, so outside shareholders cannot force a change.
Bonuses and share awards pay on revenue, gross profit and profit before stock pay. None pays on the share price, and the profit measure leaves out the shares staff are paid in.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C40facthigh confidence
Mike Milotich, chief financial officer since 2022, became interim chief executive in February 2025 and chief executive in September 2025; Patti Kangwankij, formerly of Stripe, became CFO on 2026-02-09; the accounting chief resigned in August 2026 and new technology and product chiefs joined in May and August.
C41facthigh confidence
The founder Jason Gardner holds 46.92% of the votes and about 11% of the shares; directors and officers together hold 48.62% of the votes; T. Rowe Price entities hold about 22% of Class A.
C42facthigh confidence
The 2025 cash bonus paid on revenue (20%), gross profit (50%) and Adjusted EBITDA (30%), funding at 116.1%; performance stock vested on gross profit (70%) and Adjusted EBITDA (30%) at 136.2%; no award uses share-price return, and Adjusted EBITDA excludes stock pay.
Why it wins, and who could beat it
Why customers come back
Leaving a processor is hard. Every live card has to move, and Chime's own move took about two years. Expensify changed its bank but kept Marqeta, and Affirm says its loans would simply stop if its processor did.
That keeps customers, but it does not keep prices. As customers grow they win lower rates, and Cash App is sending its new cards to other providers. The moat holds the cards it has; it does not protect what it earns on them.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
C06management claimmedium confidence
Marqeta's gross profit per dollar of card spending was about 0.10% in Q2 2026, down from about 0.11% a year earlier; management puts it on more volume from large customers on volume-tiered prices, bigger deals at lower prices, and faster growth abroad.
sourceMarqeta Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held…primaryMarqeta Q4 2025 earnings call transcript (FMP), held…primary
against this
- The filed figures agree: Q2 2026 gross profit grew 17% against TPV up 32% (C04), which is a falling rate whatever the cause.
- Part of the fall is the Block price tier reached in December 2025 (C09), a one-time step rather than a trend.
C09management claimmedium confidence
Management says Cash App began sending new card issuance to other providers in mid-June 2026 and will send Marqeta little to none by year-end, costing about 2 points of second-half gross profit growth and a little more in 2027; Block also reached a cheaper price tier in December 2025, costing about 3 points in 2026.
sourceMarqeta Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held…primaryMarqeta Q4 2025 earnings call transcript (FMP), held…primary
against this
- Management also says existing Cash App cards stay, Block's programs grew well in Q2, and it expects to remain the primary provider.
- Tiered pricing means lost volume falls into a dearer tier, so the gross profit hit may be smaller than the volume hit, by management's account.
C19facthigh confidence
Chime launched its own processor, ChimeCore, in 2024, moved its credit card transactions by the end of 2024 and all debit transactions off Galileo by the end of 2025.
C25facthigh confidence
Expensify changed its card's issuing bank to Bancorp in February 2024 and kept Marqeta as processor; its agreement, renewed in June 2022, now renews each year unless either side gives 90 days' notice.
C26facthigh confidence
Affirm's 10-K says that if its issuer processor stopped and no other partner were found, loans paid to merchants by virtual card could no longer be made; Katapult names Marqeta as the processor behind its virtual cards, with termination for convenience after extensive notice.
The threat
The biggest customers can build their own. Chime did, and SoFi's Galileo, which it left, saw technology revenue fall 42%. Visa sells the same job through its own processors, and Stripe publishes prices from 10 cents a virtual card.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C19facthigh confidence
Chime launched its own processor, ChimeCore, in 2024, moved its credit card transactions by the end of 2024 and all debit transactions off Galileo by the end of 2025.
C20facthigh confidence
SoFi's Galileo platform fell to 135M enabled accounts from 160M after a large client fully left before December 31, 2025, and its technology products revenue fell 42% in Q2 2026.
C21facthigh confidence
Visa sells issuer processing through Visa DPS and Pismo, whose cloud platform processes credit, debit and prepaid cards through APIs.
C22factmedium confidence
Stripe Issuing says it has created over 400M cards, offers processing alone for programs that keep their own bank, names Ramp (2M+ cards) and Instacart as users, and publishes $0.10 per virtual card and $3.50 per physical card with a share of interchange paid to the program.
The rivals: CHYM, V, SOFI, ADYEY, FISV, FIS, and 1 more that is private, in-house or listed abroad.
Who else does this, rival by rival
| Ticker | Rival | How far along | Priced against it |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHYM | ChimeCore, Chime's own processorPriced against it: Different product | On sale | Different product |
| V | Visa DPS and PismoPriced against it: One segment only | On sale | One segment only |
| Private | Stripe IssuingPriced against it: Private | On sale | Private |
| SOFI | Galileo (SoFi Technology Platform)Priced against it: One segment only | On sale | One segment only |
| ADYEY | Adyen IssuingPriced against it: One segment only | On sale | One segment only |
| FISV · FIS | Fiserv and FIS (now owning TSYS issuer processing)Priced against it: One segment only | On sale | One segment only |
How big it could get
How big this could get
Americans spent $11.50 trillion on cards in 2024, and Visa and Mastercard carried $21.45 trillion worldwide. Marqeta handled about 1.8% of that.
Most of the rest is processed by banks themselves or on long contracts with older providers, so the reachable market is far smaller than the headline, and the share it could win is not something anyone has measured.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C27facthigh confidence
US card payments in 2024 were 187.7 billion worth $11.50 trillion: debit 120.6 billion worth $4.99 trillion, growing 4.1% a year by number from 2021, general-purpose prepaid 11.8 billion growing 9.7%, and credit $6.51 trillion.
C28facthigh confidence
Visa's 10-K, citing the Nilson Report, gives calendar 2024 payments volume of $13.43 trillion on Visa cards and $8.01 trillion on Mastercard cards, about $21.45 trillion together.
C29estimatemedium confidence
Marqeta's 2025 TPV of $382.5B is about 1.8% of the $21.45 trillion Visa and Mastercard carried in 2024.
derived$382.5B (C03) over $13,433B + $8,014B (C28). The years differ by one, and some Marqeta volume runs on PULSE debit, so the share is approximate.
against this
- Much of Visa and Mastercard volume is credit and bank-processed debit Marqeta does not sell into, so 1.8% of the whole overstates how little of its reachable market it holds.
- The numerator is 2025 and the denominator 2024; a same-year figure would put the share slightly lower.
Who has signed
Block's contract covers the Cash App and Square debit cards until June 30, 2028, then renews unless either side ends it. It is the one large agreement on file, and Block was 41% of revenue in Q2 2026.
The evidence under this - 2 claims
C07facthigh confidence
Block was 45%, 47% and 68% of net revenue in 2025, 2024 and 2023, and 41% in Q2 2026 against 46% a year earlier.
C08facthigh confidence
The Cash App and Square Debit Card programs under Block's contract expire on June 30, 2028 and then renew for one year at a time unless either side ends them; an amendment of June 2026 moves Square card accounts onto Marqeta and leaves that date unchanged.
Where the growth is coming from, business by business
Where the growth is coming from
| Business | Share of revenue | Growth: last quarter | Last half-year | Last year | Share in 3 years at its half-year rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Platform Service Revenue, Net | 93% | +14.4% | +16.3% | +19.9% | 86% |
| Other Services Revenue | 7% | +69.7% | +51.3% | +37.7% | 14% |
| Whole company | 100% | +17.0% | +18.1% | +20.8% | 100% |
On the filed split through 2026-06-30, if each business keeps its last half-year's growth, the company grows about 19% next year and 20% in year 3, against 22.4% over the last twelve months. A scenario, not a forecast: no business holds its rate.
The results
The numbers
Is it growing?Steady
Sales grew 22% over the twelve months to Jun 2026, about the same pace as the 23% in the year to Dec 2025.
Is it profitable?Losing
Operating margin is −1.9%, up from −42% in the year to Dec 2023.
Does growth pay off?Pays off
Running costs take 72¢ of each sales dollar, down from 76¢ in the year to Dec 2021.
Does it earn good returns?Poor
The capital put into the business loses 1.5% a year after tax, about where it was (−2.0%) in the year to Dec 2024.
Is it making cash?Strong
It turned 29% of sales into free cash, $198M over the last twelve months.
How steady is it?Swingy
Yearly sales growth has ranged from −25% to +78% over the last 5 years, with sales falling in 2 of them.
Are shares being diluted?Shrinking
The share count fell 71% in 4.5 years, and pay in shares costs 14% of sales.
All the numbers
Filed figures from the company's 10-K and 10-Q, read 2026-10-06. Fiscal years end in December.
| Dec 2021 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2025 | 12 mo to Jun 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Size and growth | ||||||
| Sales | $517M | $748M | $676M | $507M | $625M | $677M |
| Sales growth | +78% | +45% | −9.6% | −25% | +23% | +22% |
| Profit | ||||||
| Gross margin | 45% | 43% | 49% | 69% | 70% | 70% |
| Operating margin | −31% | −28% | −42% | −4.8% | −7.4% | −1.9% |
| Net margin | −32% | −25% | −33% | 5.4% | −2.2% | 1.5% |
| What growth costs, per sales dollar | ||||||
| Pay in shares | 28% | 14% | 19% | 27% | 17% | 14% |
| Capital spending | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Cash | ||||||
| Cash from operations | $57.0M | −$13.0M | $21.1M | $58.2M | $163M | $200M |
| Free cash flow | $54.2M | −$15.3M | $20.3M | $55.8M | $161M | $198M |
| Balance sheet | ||||||
| Cash and short-term investments | $1.70B | $1.62B | $1.25B | $1.10B | $772M | $701M |
| Returns and shares | ||||||
| Return on capital | - | - | - | −2.0% | - | −1.5% |
| Shares (diluted) | 363M | 545M | 533M | 519M | 462M | 107M |
What growth costs
Growth has been cheap to add: in Q2 2026 gross profit rose 17% while running costs rose 4%, so each new dollar keeps more profit. The cost hiding underneath is stock pay, $104.8M in 2025, nearly all of that year's profit before it.
The evidence under this - 2 claims
C44facthigh confidence
Total operating expenses rose 4% in Q2 2026 while gross profit rose 17%; Marqeta guides adjusted operating expenses nearly flat for Q3; it capitalised $28.4M of software in 2025 and $16.2M in the first half of 2026.
C12facthigh confidence
Stock pay was $104.8M in 2025, 96% of that year's $109.6M Adjusted EBITDA, and $42.4M in the first half of 2026, 60% of the half's $70.8M; Adjusted EBITDA excludes it.
The last report (4 Aug)
Quarter ended June 2026, filed figures.
17%
Sales growth
against the same quarter a year earlier
6.2%
Growth from the quarter before
against -3.7% the quarter before that
2¢
Operating profit
per dollar of sales
In Q2 2026 card spending through Marqeta rose 32% and gross profit 17%, and it made an operating profit of $3.6M. Customers outside the largest five grew volume 49%.
The forecast was the news. Gross profit growth slows to 5% to 7% in Q3 2026 as Cash App's new cards go to other providers and price cuts on two renewals take effect. The shares fell 7.1% the next day.
What it did to the thesisIt confirmed that growth outside Block is real and that the business now makes an operating profit. It also showed Block's new cards leaving faster than expected and pushed the question of how fast profit grows in 2027 into the next forecast. The view stays Neutral.
The quarter in detail
Sales growth from the previous quarter, filed figures.
Earnings per share $0.07 against $0.01 expected.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
C04facthigh confidence
In Q2 2026 net revenue was $176.0M, up 17%, gross profit $121.9M, up 17%, TPV $120.4B, up 32%, GAAP net income $7.6M and Adjusted EBITDA $37.4M.
C05management claimmedium confidence
Marqeta guides Q3 2026 net revenue growth of 6% to 8% and gross profit growth of 5% to 7%, and full-year 2026 net revenue growth of 12% to 13%, gross profit growth of 11% to 12%, Adjusted EBITDA growth in the low 30s and GAAP net income in the high $20 millions; the second half is about 2 points lower than assumed in February.
sourceMarqeta Q2 2026 results release, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1primaryMarqeta Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held…primary
against this
- Adjusted EBITDA guidance was raised in May and again in August, so the profit line has run ahead of plan.
- The gross profit outlook for the second half was cut by about 2 points since February, on a customer splitting volume and a worse delivery mix.
C16facthigh confidence
TPV from Marqeta's top five customers grew 26% in Q2 2026 and from all others 49%; in 2025 the figures were 21% and 69%.
C09management claimmedium confidence
Management says Cash App began sending new card issuance to other providers in mid-June 2026 and will send Marqeta little to none by year-end, costing about 2 points of second-half gross profit growth and a little more in 2027; Block also reached a cheaper price tier in December 2025, costing about 3 points in 2026.
sourceMarqeta Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held…primaryMarqeta Q4 2025 earnings call transcript (FMP), held…primary
against this
- Management also says existing Cash App cards stay, Block's programs grew well in Q2, and it expects to remain the primary provider.
- Tiered pricing means lost volume falls into a dearer tier, so the gross profit hit may be smaller than the volume hit, by management's account.
C10facthigh confidence
Operating income was $3.6M in Q2 2026 and $5.7M in the first half, after losses of $10.4M and $8.3M in Q3 and Q4 2025; other income, mostly interest on cash, was $4.4M in Q2 2026 and $24.2M over the last four quarters.
What management did with the money
Marqeta has spent most of its spare cash buying back shares: $391.4M in 2025 and $93.9M in the first half of 2026, cutting the share count 7.6% in a year. Its two purchases were small and paid in cash.
Insiders in 2026Q3: 29 purchases and 57 sales, from their Form 4 filings.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C13facthigh confidence
Marqeta spent $391.4M on buybacks in 2025 and $93.9M in the first half of 2026, cutting diluted shares 7.6% in a year; a further $150M was authorised in August 2026. A 1-for-4 reverse split took effect on June 30, 2026.
C43facthigh confidence
Since its 2021 listing raised about $1.3B, Marqeta has spent about $901M on buybacks, $135.8M plus $53.1M of contingent payments and $85.1M of retention pay on Power Finance in 2023, and about $59.9M on TransactPay in 2025; it pays no dividend.
C11facthigh confidence
Cash and short-term investments were $700.9M at June 30, 2026, down from $1.10B at the end of 2024, with no debt; a further $260.6M of restricted cash is matched by money owed to European clients.
The price, and where we disagree
In short. Fair. The price pays for the business growing profit at the slower pace the company forecasts, with the cash pile counted, and no more.
Share price
$17.03
close,
Company value for each $1 of cash profit
16.2
its 6-year normal -12.2
The shares fell about 7% the day after each of the three results this year, each time on a forecast of slower profit growth. Buyers now pay about a third less for each dollar of sales than a year ago.
The next test is Q3 2026 results on 2026-11-03, against a forecast of 5% to 7% gross profit growth and the last renewal price cut the company expects to sign.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C36facthigh confidence
The shares fell 7.2% on 2026-02-25, 7.6% on 2026-05-06 and 7.1% on 2026-08-05, the day after each 2026 results; over 252 sessions the price fell 16.5% while sales per share rose 32.2%, so the multiple fell 36.9%.
C05management claimmedium confidence
Marqeta guides Q3 2026 net revenue growth of 6% to 8% and gross profit growth of 5% to 7%, and full-year 2026 net revenue growth of 12% to 13%, gross profit growth of 11% to 12%, Adjusted EBITDA growth in the low 30s and GAAP net income in the high $20 millions; the second half is about 2 points lower than assumed in February.
sourceMarqeta Q2 2026 results release, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1primaryMarqeta Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held…primary
against this
- Adjusted EBITDA guidance was raised in May and again in August, so the profit line has run ahead of plan.
- The gross profit outlook for the second half was cut by about 2 points since February, on a customer splitting volume and a worse delivery mix.
C46management claimmedium confidence
Management expects to sign the last of the renewals it re-priced after the fintech boom in Q3 2026, after it slipped from Q2; it put the two renewals at 4 points of 2026 gross profit growth.
sourceMarqeta Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held…primaryMarqeta Q4 2025 earnings call transcript (FMP), held…primary
against this
- It slipped once already, from Q2 to Q3 2026.
- Block's renewal in 2028 is not one of the two and is the largest by far (C07, C08).
C09management claimmedium confidence
Management says Cash App began sending new card issuance to other providers in mid-June 2026 and will send Marqeta little to none by year-end, costing about 2 points of second-half gross profit growth and a little more in 2027; Block also reached a cheaper price tier in December 2025, costing about 3 points in 2026.
sourceMarqeta Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held…primaryMarqeta Q4 2025 earnings call transcript (FMP), held…primary
against this
- Management also says existing Cash App cards stay, Block's programs grew well in Q2, and it expects to remain the primary provider.
- Tiered pricing means lost volume falls into a dearer tier, so the gross profit hit may be smaller than the volume hit, by management's account.
How we read the multiple
Take away the $700.9M of cash and the business itself costs about $1.07B. Whether that is cheap depends on how stock pay is counted.
- Before stock pay, profit this year is about $145M, so the business costs about 7 times profit.
- Staff are paid about $85M a year in shares, a real cost the buybacks have to cover.
- After it, profit is near $60M, and the price is about 18 times.
- At 18 times, the price needs gross profit growing about 6% to 10% a year, as forecast.
Against its own history. Buyers pay far less for each dollar of sales than they used to, because growth has slowed, not because the business got worse.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
C15estimatemedium confidence
At $17.03 on 104.1M shares the company is worth about $1.77B, or about $1.07B after its $700.9M of cash; that is about 7.4 times 2026 guided Adjusted EBITDA of about $145M, about 18 times that figure less about $85M of stock pay, and about 2.2 times guided gross profit of about $488M.
derivedPrice from the pack (2026-10-05 close); shares from the 10-Q cover (C14); cash from C11; Adjusted EBITDA $109.6M grown by the low-30s guide, 31% to 34%, gives $143.6M to $146.9M (C05, C12); stock pay is the first half's $42.4M doubled; gross profit $437.3M grown 11% to 12% (C03, C05).
against this
- Q3 2026 buybacks are not yet filed, so both the share count and the cash are overstated by whatever was bought since June.
- Stock pay fell from $105M in 2025 to a pace near $85M, and the adjusted multiple would read cheap if that keeps falling.
C12facthigh confidence
Stock pay was $104.8M in 2025, 96% of that year's $109.6M Adjusted EBITDA, and $42.4M in the first half of 2026, 60% of the half's $70.8M; Adjusted EBITDA excludes it.
C05management claimmedium confidence
Marqeta guides Q3 2026 net revenue growth of 6% to 8% and gross profit growth of 5% to 7%, and full-year 2026 net revenue growth of 12% to 13%, gross profit growth of 11% to 12%, Adjusted EBITDA growth in the low 30s and GAAP net income in the high $20 millions; the second half is about 2 points lower than assumed in February.
sourceMarqeta Q2 2026 results release, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1primaryMarqeta Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held…primary
against this
- Adjusted EBITDA guidance was raised in May and again in August, so the profit line has run ahead of plan.
- The gross profit outlook for the second half was cut by about 2 points since February, on a customer splitting volume and a worse delivery mix.
C11facthigh confidence
Cash and short-term investments were $700.9M at June 30, 2026, down from $1.10B at the end of 2024, with no debt; a further $260.6M of restricted cash is matched by money owed to European clients.
C49estimatehigh confidence
GAAP net income over the last four quarters, about $10.4M, is less than the $24.2M of other income, mostly interest, over the same quarters; operating income was a $13.0M loss.
derivedOperating income of -$10.4M, -$8.3M, $2.1M and $3.6M and other income of $7.2M, $6.6M, $5.9M and $4.4M from Q3 2025 to Q2 2026 (C10); net income from the numbers card.
against this
- Operating income turned positive in Q1 and Q2 2026 and is guided to keep rising, so the share of profit from interest is falling.
- Operating income is struck after stock pay, which buybacks offset.
Priced against its rivals
None of the listed rivals above sells the same thing to the same buyers as a large part of what it does. A price comparison needs at least two, so the price is judged against its own history instead.
Private or foreign rivals that cannot be priced: i2c Inc., Stripe, Inc.
Where we disagree with the market
The market believes
A cash-rich processor whose growth is stalling as Block drifts away and its biggest customers squeeze prices.
We believe
We agree on the direction. Volume growth is real, but customers re-price as they grow, so profit tracks the forecast rather than the volume.
Where we differ is the cash. Some buyers expect it to buy growth back; Marqeta has spent it on its own shares, which shrinks the share count without rebuilding the growth rate.
The case against us: in 2024 the shares fell 42.5% on launch delays, and the next year volume grew 31%. Customers outside the largest five are growing 49%, and if they outgrow the price cuts, today's price will look cheap.
What analysts say, and the evidence
Analysts positive
21%
of 14, 1 Oct
Four months earlier
21%
of 14, 1 Jun
The evidence under this - 6 claims
C36facthigh confidence
The shares fell 7.2% on 2026-02-25, 7.6% on 2026-05-06 and 7.1% on 2026-08-05, the day after each 2026 results; over 252 sessions the price fell 16.5% while sales per share rose 32.2%, so the multiple fell 36.9%.
C05management claimmedium confidence
Marqeta guides Q3 2026 net revenue growth of 6% to 8% and gross profit growth of 5% to 7%, and full-year 2026 net revenue growth of 12% to 13%, gross profit growth of 11% to 12%, Adjusted EBITDA growth in the low 30s and GAAP net income in the high $20 millions; the second half is about 2 points lower than assumed in February.
sourceMarqeta Q2 2026 results release, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1primaryMarqeta Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held…primary
against this
- Adjusted EBITDA guidance was raised in May and again in August, so the profit line has run ahead of plan.
- The gross profit outlook for the second half was cut by about 2 points since February, on a customer splitting volume and a worse delivery mix.
C06management claimmedium confidence
Marqeta's gross profit per dollar of card spending was about 0.10% in Q2 2026, down from about 0.11% a year earlier; management puts it on more volume from large customers on volume-tiered prices, bigger deals at lower prices, and faster growth abroad.
sourceMarqeta Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held…primaryMarqeta Q4 2025 earnings call transcript (FMP), held…primary
against this
- The filed figures agree: Q2 2026 gross profit grew 17% against TPV up 32% (C04), which is a falling rate whatever the cause.
- Part of the fall is the Block price tier reached in December 2025 (C09), a one-time step rather than a trend.
C16facthigh confidence
TPV from Marqeta's top five customers grew 26% in Q2 2026 and from all others 49%; in 2025 the figures were 21% and 69%.
C13facthigh confidence
Marqeta spent $391.4M on buybacks in 2025 and $93.9M in the first half of 2026, cutting diluted shares 7.6% in a year; a further $150M was authorised in August 2026. A 1-for-4 reverse split took effect on June 30, 2026.
C35facthigh confidence
On 2024-11-05 the shares fell 42.5% after Marqeta cut its Q4 2024 gross profit growth outlook by 9 points, saying 15 programs were delayed by an average of 70 days as banks slowed launches under regulatory scrutiny.
What could go wrong, and how we would know
The risks
- Block decides in 2028. Block is 41% of revenue and its contract ends June 30, 2028. Moving its existing cards would take away the largest single piece of the business.
- Customers build their own. Chime built its own processor and left Galileo. Block calls its processors plural and never names Marqeta.
- Prices keep falling. It keeps about 10 cents of every $100 spent, down from 11 a year ago, and large deals carry volume discounts.
- A second customer splitting volume. A pay-later customer is moving some single-use card volume to other providers.
- Bank regulators. Regulators have tightened on banks that sponsor fintech cards, and delays at those banks cut its outlook in 2024.
- Stock pay is large. Stock pay was $104.8M in 2025, almost all of the profit before it.
The evidence under this - 8 claims
C07facthigh confidence
Block was 45%, 47% and 68% of net revenue in 2025, 2024 and 2023, and 41% in Q2 2026 against 46% a year earlier.
C08facthigh confidence
The Cash App and Square Debit Card programs under Block's contract expire on June 30, 2028 and then renew for one year at a time unless either side ends them; an amendment of June 2026 moves Square card accounts onto Marqeta and leaves that date unchanged.
C09management claimmedium confidence
Management says Cash App began sending new card issuance to other providers in mid-June 2026 and will send Marqeta little to none by year-end, costing about 2 points of second-half gross profit growth and a little more in 2027; Block also reached a cheaper price tier in December 2025, costing about 3 points in 2026.
sourceMarqeta Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held…primaryMarqeta Q4 2025 earnings call transcript (FMP), held…primary
against this
- Management also says existing Cash App cards stay, Block's programs grew well in Q2, and it expects to remain the primary provider.
- Tiered pricing means lost volume falls into a dearer tier, so the gross profit hit may be smaller than the volume hit, by management's account.
C19facthigh confidence
Chime launched its own processor, ChimeCore, in 2024, moved its credit card transactions by the end of 2024 and all debit transactions off Galileo by the end of 2025.
C06management claimmedium confidence
Marqeta's gross profit per dollar of card spending was about 0.10% in Q2 2026, down from about 0.11% a year earlier; management puts it on more volume from large customers on volume-tiered prices, bigger deals at lower prices, and faster growth abroad.
sourceMarqeta Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held…primaryMarqeta Q4 2025 earnings call transcript (FMP), held…primary
against this
- The filed figures agree: Q2 2026 gross profit grew 17% against TPV up 32% (C04), which is a falling rate whatever the cause.
- Part of the fall is the Block price tier reached in December 2025 (C09), a one-time step rather than a trend.
C39management claimmedium confidence
Management says a buy-now-pay-later customer that uses Marqeta alone for its flexible card is moving some single-use virtual card volume to its other providers.
against this
Management calls it one customer's choice and says the flexible card, which only Marqeta runs for it, is succeeding.
C34facthigh confidence
Regulators tightened on banks that sponsor fintech cards: the Federal Reserve found in 2024 that Evolve lacked risk management for its fintech partnerships.
C12facthigh confidence
Stock pay was $104.8M in 2025, 96% of that year's $109.6M Adjusted EBITDA, and $42.4M in the first half of 2026, 60% of the half's $70.8M; Adjusted EBITDA excludes it.
What we still do not know
- How fast gross profit grows in 2027 once Cash App's new cards have gone. Management calls it to be decided.
- Whether Block renews in 2028, and at what price.
- Whether new credit and European programs grow fast enough to replace what large customers take away.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C05management claimmedium confidence
Marqeta guides Q3 2026 net revenue growth of 6% to 8% and gross profit growth of 5% to 7%, and full-year 2026 net revenue growth of 12% to 13%, gross profit growth of 11% to 12%, Adjusted EBITDA growth in the low 30s and GAAP net income in the high $20 millions; the second half is about 2 points lower than assumed in February.
sourceMarqeta Q2 2026 results release, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1primaryMarqeta Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held…primary
against this
- Adjusted EBITDA guidance was raised in May and again in August, so the profit line has run ahead of plan.
- The gross profit outlook for the second half was cut by about 2 points since February, on a customer splitting volume and a worse delivery mix.
C09management claimmedium confidence
Management says Cash App began sending new card issuance to other providers in mid-June 2026 and will send Marqeta little to none by year-end, costing about 2 points of second-half gross profit growth and a little more in 2027; Block also reached a cheaper price tier in December 2025, costing about 3 points in 2026.
sourceMarqeta Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held…primaryMarqeta Q4 2025 earnings call transcript (FMP), held…primary
against this
- Management also says existing Cash App cards stay, Block's programs grew well in Q2, and it expects to remain the primary provider.
- Tiered pricing means lost volume falls into a dearer tier, so the gross profit hit may be smaller than the volume hit, by management's account.
C08facthigh confidence
The Cash App and Square Debit Card programs under Block's contract expire on June 30, 2028 and then renew for one year at a time unless either side ends them; an amendment of June 2026 moves Square card accounts onto Marqeta and leaves that date unchanged.
C32management claimlow confidence
Management says three credit programs launch in the next couple of quarters (a co-brand revolving card, a secured card with pay-later, a commercial charge card) and that a large US bank went live in 2026.
sourceMarqeta Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held…primaryMarqeta Q1 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held…primary
against this
- Credit has been offered since October 2023 after the $135.8M Power Finance purchase, and no credit volume or revenue has been disclosed since.
- Launch timing slipped badly in 2024, when bank scrutiny delayed programs by about 70 days (C35).
What would change our view
- Neutral→AttractiveGross profit growth returns after Cash App's new cards are gone
It needs:
- ○Marqeta forecasts 2027 gross profit growth of 12% or more.checked at the next results, due by 3 Nov
- Neutral→AttractiveA cheaper price on the guided business
It needs all of:
- ○The business, cash aside, falls to about 12 times this year's profit after stock pay.about ≈$11.09 today, 35% below the last close
- ○Q3 2026 gross profit growth reaches at least 5%, the bottom of the forecast.checked at the next results, due by 3 Nov
- Neutral→UnattractiveThe largest customer leaves
It needs any of:
- ○Block moves Cash App's existing cards to another processor or ends the contract.watched as it happens
- ○Marqeta forecasts 2027 gross profit growth below 5%.checked at the next results, due by 3 Nov
What is coming
- 3 November 2026 Q3 2026 results: Gross profit growth against the 5% to 7% guide, whether the last fintech-era renewal signed, and how fast Cash App's new cards are leaving.
Every dated event ahead
- 3 November 2026 Q3 2026 results: Gross profit growth against the 5% to 7% guide, whether the last fintech-era renewal signed, and how fast Cash App's new cards are leaving.
- February 2027 Full-year 2026 results with 2027 guidance: Gross profit growth for 2027 once Cash App's new issuance has gone, the number the price turns on.
- 30 June 2028 Block's contract term ends: Whether Cash App renews, re-prices or moves its processing; 41% of revenue.
Since we wrote this
Written
6 Oct
Price the thesis read
$17.03
5 Oct
- 20 OctNewsBlock moves Square's credit card onto Marqeta; no volume or price disclosed. View heldSquare credit card moves to Marqeta; Marqeta and Coinbase announce stablecoin-backed cards.
- 6 OctThesis writtenNeutral, medium convictionWritten four weeks before Q3 2026 results, after the shares fell 7.1% on a guide of 5% to 7% gross profit growth.
Sources 32
Where this came from
Sources - 32
Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.
- S01primarycompany filing2026-02-24Item 1 business and offerings, the competition risk factor naming rivals, Block's share of revenue and the 2028 expiry, Sutton Bank's share of volume, TPV by year, top-five TPV growth, revenue disaggregation, the cash flow statement, buybacks, employeesbacksC01C02C03C07C08C11C12C13C16C18C33C43C44C45
- S02primarycompany filing2026-08-04the income statement, Block's 41% share, top-five against other TPV growth, cash and restricted cash, no debt, the cover share count after the 1-for-4 split, buybacks, cash flow statement, Block Amendment No. 28backsC04C07C08C11C13C14C16C43C44C45
- S03primarycompany release2026-08-04five quarters of gross profit, operating income, other income and Adjusted EBITDA; the stock pay reconciliation; Q3 and full-year 2026 guidance
Adjusted EBITDA | $ | 37,420 | | | $ | 33,338 | | | $ | 30,677 | | | $ | 30,310 | | | $ | 28,509
backsC04C05C10C12C44 - S04primarytranscript2026-08-04Marqeta Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held 2026-08-04the take rate, Block's share, Cash App's new issuance moving away, the BNPL customer splitting volume, the Q3 bridge, the 2028 Block renewal, credit programs, stablecoin; questions from UBS, JPMorgan, FT Partners, Wolfe, Susquehanna and KeyBanc
Our gross profit take rate was approximately 10 basis points, down 1 basis point year-over-year. The change in take rate was driven by rapid growth among some of our largest customers, a deliberate move upmarket into larger deal sizes, and faster international growth.
backsC05C06C09C17C32C37C39C44C46 - S05primarycompany release2026-02-242025 Adjusted EBITDA, the February 2026 guidance
Adjusted EBITDA was $109.6 million
backsC03C12 - S06primarytranscript2026-02-24Marqeta Q4 2025 earnings call transcript (FMP), held 2026-02-24the Block price tier, the last two fintech-era renewals, the remark that Visa DPS is less flexible, the competitive environment; questions from UBS, JPMorgan, Wolfe, KBW, FT Partners, Morgan Stanley and Citi
To incentivize their growth, we included a price tier that steps down 2x the size of other pricing tiers in the contract. Block just reached that tier in December 2025
backsC06C09C38C40C46 - S07primarycompany release2026-05-05Q1 2026 results and the raised Adjusted EBITDA outlook
Q1 2026 net revenue
read, but no claim rests on it - S08primarytranscript2026-05-05Marqeta Q1 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held 2026-05-05stablecoin and agentic remarks, the large US bank win, the lead on flexible credentials; questions from Wolfe, JPMorgan, Citi, UBS, KBW, KeyBanc, FT Partners and Deutsche Bank
we don't see stablecoin cards as something that's disruptive to our business. We see it as additive.
backsC32 - S09primarycompany filing2026-04-21beneficial ownership and voting power, the 2025 bonus and PSU metrics and resultsbacksC14C41C42C43
- S10primarycompany filing2026-08-25CEO appointment, the new CFO, CTO and CPO, the accounting chief's resignation, the $100M and $150M buyback programmes, the 1-for-4 split effective 2026-06-30backsC13C40
- S11secondaryvendor data2026-10-06Research pack, MQ, 2026-10-06 (FMP market data, FINRA short interest)price at the 2026-10-05 close, the 252-session decomposition, daily closes around each print, the analyst split and estimates, short interestbacksC35C36C37
- S12primarycompany filing2026-08-06Galileo's accounts and revenue after a large client leftbacksC20
- S13primarycompany filing2026-08-06Chime's move of all transactions from Galileo to its own processorbacksC19
- S14primarycompany filing2026-02-20a rival's list of issuer processors including Marqeta, the incumbent contract terms, the $7.7B sale of Issuer Solutions to FISbacksC23C48
- S15primarycompany filing2025-11-06Visa DPS and Pismo issuer processing; calendar 2024 payments volume for Visa and Mastercard (Nilson Report data)backsC21C28
- S16primaryother2026-10-06Stripe, Issuing product page StripeStripe's scale in card issuing, a processing-only option, named customers Ramp and Instacart, stablecoin-funded cards with Bridge
Startups, platforms, and the world's largest fintechs build with Stripe Issuing. 400M+ cards created 200K+ businesses and consumers supported 75+ global markets
backsC22 - S17primarygovernment data2026-07-01Federal Reserve Payments Study 2025, calendar-year 2024 top-line data Federal Reserve BoardUS card payments by type in number and value, and their growth from 2021 to 2024
In 2024, debit card payments reached 120.6 billion, up 13.8 billion from 2021. The 4.1 percent annual growth rate from 2021 to 2024 was not just lower than the 7.2 percent rate from 2018 to 2021
backsC27 - S18primarygovernment data2026-07-22euro-area card payment growth, the market Marqeta's European business sells into
In the second half of 2025 the number of card payments within the euro area was 47.8 billion, 7.9% higher compared with the second half of 2024.
backsC30 - S19primaryother2026-09-08how fast stablecoin-linked cards are growing on the network
Today, more than 160 stablecoin-linked card programs operate on Visa's network, with payment volume on those programs growing nearly 200% year over year.
backsC31 - S20primarycompany filing2026-02-26a customer that changed issuing bank and kept Marqeta as processor; the contract's renewal termsbacksC25
- S21primarycompany filing2026-08-04a customer naming Marqeta as issuer processor, and termination for convenience after noticebacksC26
- S22primarycompany filing2026-08-27what losing an issuer processor would cost a lender that pays merchants by virtual cardbacksC26
- S23primarycompany filing2026-02-26Block's own description of its processors: unnamed, pluralbacksC24
- S24primaryother2026-10-06a rival's published card prices, and that it shares interchange with the program
$0.10 per virtual card $3.50 per standard, physical card Custom cards subject to additional pricing.
backsC22 - S25primaryregulator2024-06-14Federal Reserve Board enforcement release on Evolve Bancorp and Evolve Bank & Trust Federal Reserve Boardthe regulator's view of sponsor banks' fintech partnerships, the scrutiny that slowed launches in 2024
Examinations conducted in 2023 found that Evolve engaged in unsafe and unsound banking practices by failing to have in place an effective risk management framework for those partnerships.
backsC34 - S26primaryother2026-09-09the counterparty's account of the stablecoin card partnership
Mastercard is one of Marqeta's major network partners, while BVNK has been part of Mastercard since its acquisition in August 2026.
backsC31 - S27primarycompany filing2026-07-30Mastercard's $1.5B purchase of BVNK, the stablecoin firm Marqeta partnered withbacksC31
- S28primarycompany filing2026-07-29US consumer debit and commercial payments volume, nine months to March 2026 against a year earlierbacksC30
- S29primarycompany filing2025-06-12when ChimeCore launched and which card transactions it had taken over by the end of 2024backsC19
- S30primarytranscript2024-11-04Marqeta Q3 2024 earnings call transcript (FMP), held 2024-11-04why the Q4 2024 outlook was cut, the objection behind the 42.5% fall
First, 15 programs we expected to launch in the quarter were delayed by an average of 70 days.
backsC35 - S31primarycompany filing2026-10-0635 open-market sales, all under 10b5-1 plans, and one director's purchasebacksC47
- S32primarycompany filing2026-02-13a commercial-card issuer naming Marqeta and i2c as processors that let partner banks compete with itbacksC48