← All thesesNETUnattractiveMedium convictionSunday 11 October 2026עברית

Cloudflare

A San Francisco company whose network sits in front of about a quarter of all websites, blocking attacks, speeding pages up and running code for developers.

Our viewUnattractive Medium conviction
The scores
The profile · 1-4
Growth4/4 ↑

Revenue grew 29.8% in 2025 and 35.9% in Q2 2026, contracts signed ahead rose 38% and the 2026 forecast was raised twice.

Business quality3/4 →

In front of most identifiable proxied sites with no customer above 10%, but gross margin is falling and the clouds sell the same.

Financial position3/4 →

About $869M of net cash and free cash flow positive, but $4.2B of convertible notes, much of it in the money.

Execution record3/4 →

Growth near 30% for five years and forecasts raised, but its own errors caused outages and a 20% staff cut this year.

Per share capture2/4 →

Stock pay of 20.2% of revenue exceeds free cash flow, and diluted shares rose about 3% a year since 2021.

Potential3/4 ↑

US revenue is about 15% of a large-firm market built from units, with agent traffic a new use not yet in the accounts.

Risk profile3/4 →

No customer above 10% and net cash, but outages it caused, larger cloud rivals and founder voting control.

Valuation1/4 ↓

About 51 times trailing sales and over 300 times free cash flow; the price needs roughly 28% yearly growth for ten years.

Evidence quality3/4 →

Filed figures carry growth and cash, but agent revenue is unreported and the market share comes from an outside web survey.

The bet · 2-3 years
Safe, little upside1.0×

If it works 1.0× · if it fails you keep about 90%.

The Verdict

We rate Cloudflare unattractive. The business is solid: its network sits in front of about a quarter of all websites and revenue grew 36% in Q2 2026. The price is stretched. At about 51 times sales, buyers need revenue to grow about 28% a year for ten years, a best case rather than a likely one. As a bet on its tools for AI agents to prove who they are and pay sites, it is safe but has little upside: the rest of the business at a fair price holds most of today's value, yet even a big success there leaves the company worth about what it is today.

The long caseIf agents start paying sites for what they read, someone must vouch for each agent and collect a tiny fee per request, and Cloudflare already guards much of the web.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C24factmedium confidence
W3Techs finds Cloudflare used by 85.5% of websites whose reverse proxy it can identify, 26.8% of all websites, and its content delivery use at 25% of websites, up from 19.6% a year earlier.
current state · 2026-10-10written 2026-10-10
C05facthigh confidence
Revenue grew from $656.4M in 2021 to $2,167.9M in 2025, up 29.8% in 2025; Q2 2026 revenue was $696.1M, up 35.9%, and the four quarters to June 2026 totalled $2,512.4M.
historical · FY2021 to TTM 2026-06-30written 2026-10-10
C16estimatemedium confidence
At $360.93 Cloudflare's 356.1M shares are worth about $128.5B and the company about $127.6B, 50.8 times trailing revenue of $2,512M; at a 9% return that needs revenue near $30.2B in ten years, about 28% growth a year.
against this
  • A sale at 15 times revenue instead of 10 would cut the needed growth to about 23% a year.
  • Shares issued for the 2026 notes in August are not yet on a filed cover, so the value is slightly understated.
current state · 2026-10-09written 2026-10-10
C46management claimlow confidence
The chief executive estimates Cloudflare handles about 0.5 billion requests a second, of which 1% to 10% could be paid for by agents in fractions of a penny, needing about 10 million payments a second against Visa's peak of about 20,000.
against this
  • He called the figures unaudited and directional, and gave the Visa figure from memory.
  • Cloudflare blocks much AI crawler traffic for its customers and does not charge for blocking it, so a request seen is not a request paid.
current state · 2026-08-06written 2026-10-11
C19factmedium confidence
Analysts expect sales of about $3.68B in 2027 and $4.68B in 2028, growth of about 28% and 27%, from panels of 19 and 5.
current state · 2026-10-10written 2026-10-10
01

The company

Cloudflare sells one network that sits between a website and its visitors. Traffic passes through Cloudflare first, which blocks attacks, keeps copies of pages close to visitors so they load fast, and lets developers run their code on the same machines.

About 332,000 companies pay for it, and no customer brings in a tenth of revenue. The alternative is buying separate boxes and services from several suppliers, or using the tools inside a big cloud. It spends about 15% of revenue a year building out the network.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C01facthigh confidence
Cloudflare sells security, performance, reliability, zero trust office access and a developer platform from one network spanning more than 330 cities in over 125 countries, connected to over 13,000 networks. It reports one segment.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-10
C02facthigh confidence
Cloudflare had about 332,000 paying customers in more than 190 countries at 31 December 2025, and no customer was more than 10% of revenue in 2023, 2024 or 2025.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-10
C24factmedium confidence
W3Techs finds Cloudflare used by 85.5% of websites whose reverse proxy it can identify, 26.8% of all websites, and its content delivery use at 25% of websites, up from 19.6% a year earlier.
current state · 2026-10-10written 2026-10-10
C42facthigh confidence
Capital spending was $315.6M in 2025, 14.6% of revenue, and management guides network spending to 14% to 15% of 2026 revenue.
historical · FY2025written 2026-10-10

How it makes money

Customers pay a subscription or by usage, and most sign one- to three-year contracts. Large customers paying over $100,000 a year are 4,698 and bring in 73% of revenue. Once a company routes its traffic through Cloudflare it tends to add products: existing customers spent 20% more than a year earlier. Contracts signed but not yet earned reached $2.73B, up 38%, faster than revenue.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C03facthigh confidence
Customers paying over $100,000 a year rose from 3,712 to 4,698 in the year to 30 June 2026, up 26.6%, and management says they made 73% of Q2 revenue against 71% a year earlier.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-10
C07facthigh confidence
Contracted revenue not yet recognised was $2,732.0M at 30 June 2026, up 38%, with 64% due within twelve months; that near-term part grew 35%.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-10
C04facthigh confidence
Dollar-based net retention was 120% in Q2 2026 against 114% a year earlier; for the fourth quarters of 2023, 2024 and 2025 it was 115%, 111% and 120%.
against this
  • The rate fell to 111% at the end of 2024 before recovering, so it moves with spending cycles.
  • It nets customers who leave against those who expand; Cloudflare does not report gross retention.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-10
C05facthigh confidence
Revenue grew from $656.4M in 2021 to $2,167.9M in 2025, up 29.8% in 2025; Q2 2026 revenue was $696.1M, up 35.9%, and the four quarters to June 2026 totalled $2,512.4M.
historical · FY2021 to TTM 2026-06-30written 2026-10-10
Where the money comes from, stream by stream
StreamShare of sales (Q2 2026)How it earns it
Customers paying over $100,000 a year73%Enterprise contracts of one to three years, increasingly pool-of-funds deals customers draw down across products, for security, delivery, office access and Workers.
Other paying customers27%Smaller enterprise contracts and self-serve Pro and Business plans paid monthly or yearly by card, plus usage fees from developers.
Revenue by product groupnot disclosedCloudflare reports no split between security, office access, the developer platform and AI; management says Workers grows fastest.

Who runs it

Matthew Prince, a co-founder, has run Cloudflare since 2009, with co-founder Michelle Zatlyn as president and Thomas Seifert as finance chief since 2017. Insiders hold about half the votes through ten-vote shares. There is no cash bonus; the founders' share awards vest only if the share price reaches set goals, and nothing pays on cash flow or official profit. Insiders sold and bought nothing over the year, almost all under pre-set plans.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C37facthigh confidence
Matthew Prince has been chief executive since 2009 and Michelle Zatlyn, the other co-founder, president since December 2020; Thomas Seifert has been finance chief since June 2017.
current state · 2026-06-09written 2026-10-10
C35facthigh confidence
Directors and officers held 99.0% of the ten-vote Class B shares and 52.4% of the votes; in June 2026 holders approved a non-voting Class C share split, 382.3M votes for and 200.6M against.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-10
C36facthigh confidence
Cloudflare pays its named executives no cash bonus; each co-founder's 2025 performance award vests only if the share price reaches goals from $156 to $579 within seven years.
current state · 2026-06-09written 2026-10-10
C39facthigh confidence
Insiders made 760 open-market sales and no purchases in the year to October 2026; 756 of them, 99.9% of shares sold, were under pre-set trading plans.
current state · 2026-10-07written 2026-10-10
02

Why it wins, and who could beat it

Why customers come back

The network gets better as it grows. Seeing traffic for a quarter of all websites lets Cloudflare spot an attack on one site and block it for every other, which a smaller rival cannot match. An outside survey finds it in front of 85.5% of the websites whose shield it can identify, and its share of websites using it to deliver pages rose in a year.

Leaving is costly, too. A US data breach costs a company about $10.22M on average, so few want to switch the gatekeeper that works.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C24factmedium confidence
W3Techs finds Cloudflare used by 85.5% of websites whose reverse proxy it can identify, 26.8% of all websites, and its content delivery use at 25% of websites, up from 19.6% a year earlier.
current state · 2026-10-10written 2026-10-10
C02facthigh confidence
Cloudflare had about 332,000 paying customers in more than 190 countries at 31 December 2025, and no customer was more than 10% of revenue in 2023, 2024 or 2025.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-10
C04facthigh confidence
Dollar-based net retention was 120% in Q2 2026 against 114% a year earlier; for the fourth quarters of 2023, 2024 and 2025 it was 115%, 111% and 120%.
against this
  • The rate fell to 111% at the end of 2024 before recovering, so it moves with spending cycles.
  • It nets customers who leave against those who expand; Cloudflare does not report gross retention.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-10
C43factmedium confidence
IBM's 2025 study puts the average US data breach at a record $10.22M.
historical · 2025written 2026-10-10

The threat

Akamai and Fastly sell the same security and delivery services to the same buyers. The bigger danger is Amazon, Google and Microsoft, whose clouds offer similar tools inside services customers already use. Zscaler competes in one product group, safe office access. Cloudflare's own annual report names no rival and warns that large cloud and telecom firms could move in.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C30facthigh confidence
Akamai's 10-K describes three core offerings, security, cloud computing and delivery, the same products Cloudflare sells to web-facing companies.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-10
C32facthigh confidence
Fastly's 10-K names Cloudflare as an application security and serverless edge computing rival, and Amazon Web Services, Google Cloud and Microsoft Azure as clouds that added content delivery and web firewalls.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-10
C33facthigh confidence
Zscaler's 10-K describes zero trust security for staff, users and workloads, one of Cloudflare's product groups, and does not name Cloudflare.
current state · 2026-07-31written 2026-10-10
C34facthigh confidence
Cloudflare's 10-K names no rival company, only three classes: on-premises hardware vendors, cloud point-solution vendors and services from the public clouds, and warns large cloud and telecom firms could enter its markets.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-10

The rivals: AKAM, FSLY, AMZN, GOOGL, MSFT, ZS, V, MA.

Who else does this, rival by rival
TickerRivalWhere it competesHow far alongPriced against it
AKAMAkamaiPriced against it: YesCloudflare's single reportable segment: network services sold by subscription and by usageOn saleYes
FSLYFastlyPriced against it: YesCloudflare's single reportable segment: network services sold by subscription and by usageOn saleYes
AMZN · GOOGL · MSFTAmazon Web Services, Google Cloud and Microsoft AzurePriced against it: One segment onlyCloudflare's single reportable segment: network services sold by subscription and by usageOn saleOne segment only
ZSZscalerPriced against it: One segment onlyCloudflare's single reportable segment: network services sold by subscription and by usageOn saleOne segment only
V · MAVisa and Mastercard's own agent protocolsPriced against it: One segment onlyAgent identity and paymentsOn saleOne segment only
03

How big it could get

How big this could get

The United States has about 21,000 firms with 500 or more staff. If each paid what Cloudflare's average large customer pays, about $433,000 a year, that market would be about $9.1B.

Cloudflare already bills US customers about $1.34B a year, roughly 15% of it. That leaves room, and the estimate leaves out every other country, smaller firms, developers and any fees from AI agents.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C20facthigh confidence
In 2022 the United States had 21,041 firms with 500 or more employees, out of 6.40 million employer firms.
historical · 2022written 2026-10-10
C21estimatemedium confidence
Cloudflare's 4,698 customers paying over $100,000 a year paid on average about $433,000 a year in Q2 2026, annualised.
derived73% of Q2 revenue of $696.1M (C03, C05) is $508.2M, times four is $2,033M, over 4,698 customers.
against this

The average hides a wide spread: some large customers pay over $5M a year and many just over $100,000.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-10
C45facthigh confidence
Revenue billed to US customers was $1,073.0M in 2025 and $670.3M in the six months to 30 June 2026.
historical · FY2025 and H1 2026written 2026-10-10
C22estimatelow confidence
If every US firm with 500 or more staff paid what Cloudflare's average large customer pays, that would be about $9.1B a year.
derived21,041 firms (C20) times about $433,000 (C21).
against this
  • Large customers are defined by spend, not staff, so many are smaller firms and some large firms will never buy.
  • It leaves out every other country, smaller customers, developers and agent fees.
current state · 2026-10-10written 2026-10-10
C23estimatelow confidence
US revenue was $1,073.0M in 2025 and $670.3M in the first half of 2026, up 37.7%, about $1.34B a year and about 15% of the $9.1B.
against this

US revenue includes small customers and developers, so it overstates the share of large firms' spending.

historical · H1 2026written 2026-10-10
Where the growth is coming from, business by business

Where the growth is coming from

BusinessShare of revenueGrowth: last quarterLast half-yearLast yearShare in 3 years at its half-year rate
Reportable Segment100%+35.9%+34.7%-100%
Whole company100%+35.9%+34.7%-100%

On the filed split through 2026-06-30, if each business keeps its last half-year's growth, the company grows about 35% next year and 35% in year 3, against 33.5% over the last twelve months. A scenario, not a forecast: no business holds its rate.

04

The results

The numbers

Is it growing?Fast

Sales grew 34% over the twelve months to Jun 2026, about the same pace as the 30% in the year to Dec 2025.

Dec 2021: $656MDec 2022: $975MDec 2023: $1.30BDec 2024: $1.67BDec 2025: $2.17B12 mo to Jun 2026: $2.51B$656M$2.51B
Is it profitable?Losing

Operating margin is −14%, about where it was (−14%) in the year to Dec 2023.

Dec 2021: −19%Dec 2022: −21%Dec 2023: −14%Dec 2024: −9.3%Dec 2025: −9.6%12 mo to Jun 2026: −14%−19%−14%
Does growth pay off?Pays off

Running costs take 87¢ of each sales dollar, down from 97¢ in the year to Dec 2021.

Dec 2021: 97¢Dec 2022: 97¢Dec 2023: 91¢Dec 2024: 87¢Dec 2025: 84¢12 mo to Jun 2026: 87¢97¢87¢
Does it earn good returns?Poor

Shareholders' money lost 14% a year, up from −32% in the year to Dec 2021.

Dec 2021: −32%Dec 2022: −27%Dec 2023: −27%Dec 2024: −8.7%Dec 2025: −8.2%12 mo to Jun 2026: −14%−32%−14%
Is it making cash?Solid

It turned 14% of sales into free cash, $348M over the last twelve months.

Dec 2021: −$28.3MDec 2022: −$20.0MDec 2023: $140MDec 2024: $195MDec 2025: $287M12 mo to Jun 2026: $348M−$28.3M$348M
How steady is it?Uneven

Yearly sales growth has ranged from +29% to +52% over the last 5 years.

Dec 2021: +52%Dec 2022: +49%Dec 2023: +33%Dec 2024: +29%Dec 2025: +30%+52%+30%
Are shares being diluted?Creeping

The share count rose 13% in 4.5 years, and pay in shares costs 20% of sales.

Dec 2021: 312MDec 2022: 326MDec 2023: 334MDec 2024: 341MDec 2025: 348M12 mo to Jun 2026: 354M312M354M
All the numbers

Filed figures from the company's 10-K and 10-Q, read 2026-10-10. Fiscal years end in December.

Dec 2021Dec 2022Dec 2023Dec 2024Dec 202512 mo to Jun 2026
Size and growth
Sales$656M$975M$1.30B$1.67B$2.17B$2.51B
Sales growth+52%+49%+33%+29%+30%+34%
Profit
Gross margin78%76%76%77%75%73%
Operating margin−19%−21%−14%−9.3%−9.6%−14%
Net margin−40%−20%−14%−4.7%−4.7%−8.2%
What growth costs, per sales dollar
Research and development29%31%28%25%24%23%
Sales and marketing50%48%46%45%42%41%
General and admin18%18%17%17%18%17%
Pay in shares14%21%21%20%21%20%
Capital spending14%15%8.8%11%15%11%
Cash
Cash from operations$64.6M$124M$254M$380M$603M$633M
Free cash flow−$28.3M−$20.0M$140M$195M$287M$348M
Balance sheet
Cash and short-term investments$1.82B$1.65B$1.67B$1.86B$4.10B$4.16B
Returns and shares
Shares (diluted)312M326M334M341M348M354M

What growth costs

Growth has become cheaper. From 2021 to 2025 selling and research costs fell as a share of revenue, so the official loss narrowed from about a fifth of revenue to about a tenth. The cost the adjusted figures leave out is pay in shares, which rose to about a fifth of revenue.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C38facthigh confidence
From 2021 to 2025 sales and marketing fell from 50.0% to 42.5% of revenue and research from 28.9% to 23.6%, while stock pay rose from 13.7% to 20.8%; the GAAP operating margin rose from minus 19.5% to minus 9.6%.
historical · FY2021 to FY2025written 2026-10-10
C12estimatehigh confidence
Stock pay was $451.5M in 2025, 20.8% of revenue, and $507.7M over the four quarters to June 2026, about 20.2%, more than free cash flow, which leaves about minus $192.8M after stock pay.
against this

The four quarters include $27.9M of stock pay from the restructuring, which will not recur.

historical · TTM to 2026-06-30written 2026-10-10
C08facthigh confidence
The GAAP operating loss was $207.2M in 2025, 9.6% of revenue, and $205.7M in Q2 2026 after $150.7M of restructuring charges; adjusted operating profit was $96.1M in Q2, 13.8% of revenue.
historical · FY2025 and Q2 2026written 2026-10-10

The last report (6 Aug)

Quarter ended June 2026, filed figures.

36%
Sales growth
against the same quarter a year earlier
8.8%
Growth from the quarter before
against 4.1% the quarter before that
-30¢
Operating profit
per dollar of sales

In Q2 2026 revenue grew 35.9% to $696.1M, faster than a year earlier. Existing customers spent 20% more and large customers rose 27%. The forecast for 2026 rose to $2.864B to $2.870B, the second raise this year.

The official result was a loss of $205.7M, because a $150.7M charge paid for cutting about a fifth of staff. Before that charge and pay in shares the business made a 13.8% profit. Gross margin slipped again, to 71.8%, as more paid traffic raised network costs.

What it did to the thesisIt showed growth speeding up and customers spending more, which is the strongest evidence against our view. It did not show any revenue from AI agents, and the gross margin kept falling. The view stays unattractive because the price had already moved further than the numbers.

The quarter in detail

Sales growth from the previous quarter, filed figures.

Earnings per share $0.29 against $0.27 expected; $-0.48 as filed, the gap being what the company adds back.

The evidence under this - 7 claims
C05facthigh confidence
Revenue grew from $656.4M in 2021 to $2,167.9M in 2025, up 29.8% in 2025; Q2 2026 revenue was $696.1M, up 35.9%, and the four quarters to June 2026 totalled $2,512.4M.
historical · FY2021 to TTM 2026-06-30written 2026-10-10
C04facthigh confidence
Dollar-based net retention was 120% in Q2 2026 against 114% a year earlier; for the fourth quarters of 2023, 2024 and 2025 it was 115%, 111% and 120%.
against this
  • The rate fell to 111% at the end of 2024 before recovering, so it moves with spending cycles.
  • It nets customers who leave against those who expand; Cloudflare does not report gross retention.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-10
C03facthigh confidence
Customers paying over $100,000 a year rose from 3,712 to 4,698 in the year to 30 June 2026, up 26.6%, and management says they made 73% of Q2 revenue against 71% a year earlier.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-10
C08facthigh confidence
The GAAP operating loss was $207.2M in 2025, 9.6% of revenue, and $205.7M in Q2 2026 after $150.7M of restructuring charges; adjusted operating profit was $96.1M in Q2, 13.8% of revenue.
historical · FY2025 and Q2 2026written 2026-10-10
C09facthigh confidence
On 7 May 2026 Cloudflare announced cutting about 20% of staff, about 1,100 people, for an AI-first operating model; charges rose from an estimated $140M to $150M to up to $165M, and headcount was 4,700 at 30 June.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-10
C06management claimmedium confidence
Management guides 2026 revenue to $2,864M to $2,870M, up about 32%, raised from $2,785M to $2,795M in February and $2,805M to $2,813M in May, and Q3 revenue to $736M to $737M, up about 31%.
against this
  • Q2 revenue of $696.1M beat the $664M to $665M guide by about $31M, so the guide has sat well below results.
  • The finance chief says pool-of-funds and usage deals make quarters harder to forecast, so a miss is possible even in a strong year.
forwardwritten 2026-10-10
C10factmedium confidence
GAAP gross margin fell from 77.3% in 2024 to 74.5% in 2025 and 71.8% in Q2 2026; management blames more paid traffic moving network costs into cost of revenue and expects it to stabilise.
against this
  • The explanation is management's; AI inference and computing products may carry lower margins than security, and no product margins are disclosed.
  • The adjusted gross margin rose 0.3 points from Q1, the first rise in eight quarters.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-10
What management did with the money

Cloudflare pays no dividend and buys back no shares. It borrows through bonds that pay no interest and can turn into shares: in August it sold $2.175B due 2031 to repay $1.29B that fell due. It keeps buying small companies to strengthen its developer tools, most recently Deno, on undisclosed terms.

Insiders in 2026Q3: 28 purchases and 332 sales, from their Form 4 filings.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C14facthigh confidence
Cloudflare owes $2.0B of zero-interest notes due 2030 convertible at about $247.67 a share and, since 13 August 2026, $2.175B due 2031 convertible at about $496.94; $1,293.8M of 2026 notes matured on 15 August.
current state · 2026-08-15written 2026-10-10
C15facthigh confidence
Cash and securities were $4,162.8M at 30 June 2026 against $3,293.8M of convertible notes, about $869M of net cash before the August refinancing.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-10
C40factmedium confidence
Cloudflare agreed on 10 October 2026 to buy Deno, the company behind a programming runtime, to improve Workers; terms were not disclosed and Deno had raised $26M.
historical · 2026-10-10written 2026-10-10
05

The price, and where we disagree

In short. Priced for perfection. Cloudflare is a strong, fast-growing business, but the price assumes a decade of growth near its best year, while owners still earn nothing after pay in shares.

Share price
$360.93
close,
Company value for each $1 of sales
51.7
rivals' middle 6.2 · its 6-year normal 27.9

The shares are near their high for the year. They more than doubled from April, mostly because buyers now pay far more for each dollar of sales, not because sales grew that much. Analysts have followed, raising ratings and targets.

Cloudflare is building tools that let websites charge AI agents and agents pay, but no revenue is attached yet. The next test is third-quarter results on 29 October, against a forecast of $736M to $737M.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C17facthigh confidence
Cloudflare closed at $166.99 on 10 April 2026 and $360.93 on 9 October 2026, up 116.1%, while sales per share rose 14.8% and the price per sales dollar 88.2%; the year's range was $158.83 to $370.35.
current state · 2026-10-09written 2026-10-10
C44inferencemedium confidence
Most of Cloudflare's rise since April is buyers paying more for each sales dollar on agent hopes, rather than growth already reported.
derivedC17 splits the gain into 14.8% from sales per share and 88.2% from the multiple; C28 and C29 show agent and Workers revenue is undisclosed.
against this
  • The business did speed up: growth rose to 36%, net retention to 120% and the forecast twice (C05, C04, C06), which justifies some re-rating.
  • In April the shares sold for about 27 times sales, below the 28 times six-year normal, so part of the rise repaired a fall.
current state · 2026-10-09written 2026-10-10
C18facthigh confidence
Of 41 analysts 29 rate Cloudflare a buy and 2 a sell; the positive share was 67.6% of 34 on 1 October against 59.5% of 37 in February, and targets set in the last month average 25.3% above the year's.
current state · 2026-10-01written 2026-10-10
C06management claimmedium confidence
Management guides 2026 revenue to $2,864M to $2,870M, up about 32%, raised from $2,785M to $2,795M in February and $2,805M to $2,813M in May, and Q3 revenue to $736M to $737M, up about 31%.
against this
  • Q2 revenue of $696.1M beat the $664M to $665M guide by about $31M, so the guide has sat well below results.
  • The finance chief says pool-of-funds and usage deals make quarters harder to forecast, so a miss is possible even in a strong year.
forwardwritten 2026-10-10
C28management claimlow confidence
In Q3 2026 Cloudflare announced tools for sites to charge agents, wallets for agents to pay and an agent identity service, which the chief executive says would earn fractions of a penny per request; no revenue is disclosed.
against this
  • The chief executive says the payment system must handle about 10 million transactions a second, far beyond any payment network today, which is unproven.
  • The products are announced, not reported, so their uptake cannot be checked.
current state · 2026-08-06written 2026-10-10
The betSafe, little upside
If it works
1.0×
from today's value, at the stated multiple
If it fails
keep 90%
of today's market value: the rest of the company, less its debt
How we read the multiple

Investors pay about $127.6B for the company. What has to be true:

1. Revenue over the last year was $2.51B, so the price is about 51 times sales. 2. A buyer wanting 9% a year, a common yardstick, needs revenue near $30.2B in ten years. 3. That is growth of about 28% a year, every year, for a decade.

Revenue is growing about 32% this year. Few companies keep that up for ten years, and the spare cash today is smaller than the pay in shares.

Against its own history. The price per dollar of sales is well above its own recent normal, so buyers are paying for a faster future, not the business as it has been.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C16estimatemedium confidence
At $360.93 Cloudflare's 356.1M shares are worth about $128.5B and the company about $127.6B, 50.8 times trailing revenue of $2,512M; at a 9% return that needs revenue near $30.2B in ten years, about 28% growth a year.
against this
  • A sale at 15 times revenue instead of 10 would cut the needed growth to about 23% a year.
  • Shares issued for the 2026 notes in August are not yet on a filed cover, so the value is slightly understated.
current state · 2026-10-09written 2026-10-10
C11estimatehigh confidence
Free cash flow was $260.6M in 2025, 12.0% of revenue, and $314.9M over the four quarters to June 2026, about 12.5% of revenue; network spending is guided to 14% to 15% of 2026 revenue.
against this
  • Q2 free cash flow carried $99M of severance paid in the quarter, so the run rate is understated by a one-off.
  • Network spending ran at 7% of revenue in Q2 against a 14% to 15% full-year guide, so the second half will spend more.
historical · TTM to 2026-06-30written 2026-10-10
C12estimatehigh confidence
Stock pay was $451.5M in 2025, 20.8% of revenue, and $507.7M over the four quarters to June 2026, about 20.2%, more than free cash flow, which leaves about minus $192.8M after stock pay.
against this

The four quarters include $27.9M of stock pay from the restructuring, which will not recur.

historical · TTM to 2026-06-30written 2026-10-10
C31factmedium confidence
Cloudflare's company value is 51.7 times trailing sales on the vendor's figures, the highest of three filed rivals, against Akamai's 5.4 and Fastly's 7.1.
current state · 2026-10-10written 2026-10-10
C05facthigh confidence
Revenue grew from $656.4M in 2021 to $2,167.9M in 2025, up 29.8% in 2025; Q2 2026 revenue was $696.1M, up 35.9%, and the four quarters to June 2026 totalled $2,512.4M.
historical · FY2021 to TTM 2026-06-30written 2026-10-10
Priced against its rivals

The competitors its own annual report names, each confirmed against the rival's filing. Measured on company value for each $1 of sales, cheapest first:

TickerCompanycompany value for each $1 of sales
AKAMAkamai Technologies5.4×
FSLYFastly7.1×
NETCloudflare51.7×

The middle of the other 2 is 6.2. Cloudflare, Inc. is dearest of 3.

Rivals' figures come from a data provider, so read the spread of the group rather than any single pair.

The gap to its two filed rivals is Cloudflare's own: it grows far faster than both, and the price charges for all of that and more.

Private or foreign rivals that cannot be priced: Vercel.

The bet: what it pays if it works

The bet is on Cloudflare's tools for AI agents: proof of who an agent is, which Visa and Mastercard use, and a way for sites to charge agents a tiny fee per visit. None reports revenue, and charging is in a closed test.

Counting the rest of Cloudflare at a fair price leaves a slice of today's price for these tools. Even if agents paid on a tenth of all requests, as the boss hopes, that is worth about the slice: an expensive bet, little lost if it fails.

Agent identity and payments revenue in two to three yearsSlices of 1% of the network's requests neededAt the stated multiple
$150.00Mabout 3 at 100% kept0.9×
$470.00M (the big win)about 10 at 100% kept1.0×
$1.40Babout 30 at 100% kept1.2×

To pay 2× (a Fair bet) it would need about $5.72B of Agent identity and payments revenue (about 121 slices of 1% of the network's requests); to pay 5× (a Cheap bet), about $21.32B of Agent identity and payments revenue (about 451 slices of 1% of the network's requests), at the same multiple.

Each row is Agent identity and payments alone, plus the rest of the company (Network services (security, delivery, office access, developer platform)) counted at about $117.00B.

The steps it has to take

  • Done Visa's Trusted Agent Protocol built on Web Bot Auth; Mastercard Agent Pay adopts it
  • Done Monetization Gateway, wallets and cloudflare.pay announced; pay per crawl in closed beta
  • Not started Cloudflare discloses revenue or paid volume from agent identity or payments due 2027-02-28
  • Not started Pay per crawl opens to all customers due 2027-06-30
  • Not started Agents pay for about 10% of the network's requests due 2028-12-31
The detail behind the label
Rating
Expensive
the big win's payoff against the 2× and 5× lines
Cheap bet at about
≈ $67.28
81% below the price (close, )
The option
0.9×
what Agent identity and payments is worth if it works, against what the price pays for it
The evidence under this - 7 claims
C27management claimmedium confidence
Cloudflare says Visa built its Trusted Agent Protocol on Cloudflare's Web Bot Auth and that Mastercard and American Express will use it, letting shops tell trusted buying agents from bad bots.
against this
  • Mastercard's 10-K describes Agent Pay without naming Cloudflare, and Web Bot Auth is an open protocol others can use.
  • No revenue from this is disclosed.
current state · 2025-10-14written 2026-10-10
C28management claimlow confidence
In Q3 2026 Cloudflare announced tools for sites to charge agents, wallets for agents to pay and an agent identity service, which the chief executive says would earn fractions of a penny per request; no revenue is disclosed.
against this
  • The chief executive says the payment system must handle about 10 million transactions a second, far beyond any payment network today, which is unproven.
  • The products are announced, not reported, so their uptake cannot be checked.
current state · 2026-08-06written 2026-10-10
C49facthigh confidence
Pay per crawl, which lets sites charge AI crawlers per request with Cloudflare as the merchant of record, is in closed beta.
current state · 2026-07-28written 2026-10-11
C46management claimlow confidence
The chief executive estimates Cloudflare handles about 0.5 billion requests a second, of which 1% to 10% could be paid for by agents in fractions of a penny, needing about 10 million payments a second against Visa's peak of about 20,000.
against this
  • He called the figures unaudited and directional, and gave the Visa figure from memory.
  • Cloudflare blocks much AI crawler traffic for its customers and does not charge for blocking it, so a request seen is not a request paid.
current state · 2026-08-06written 2026-10-11
C48estimatelow confidence
At 0.5 billion requests a second, 1% paid is about 158 trillion requests a year, about $47M at the Workers price, and 10% paid about $473M.
against this
  • No fee for agent payments is published; Cloudflare's cut of what a site charges could be far below or above the Workers price.
  • The request count is the chief executive's unaudited estimate.
forwardwritten 2026-10-11
C19factmedium confidence
Analysts expect sales of about $3.68B in 2027 and $4.68B in 2028, growth of about 28% and 27%, from panels of 19 and 5.
current state · 2026-10-10written 2026-10-10
C16estimatemedium confidence
At $360.93 Cloudflare's 356.1M shares are worth about $128.5B and the company about $127.6B, 50.8 times trailing revenue of $2,512M; at a 9% return that needs revenue near $30.2B in ten years, about 28% growth a year.
against this
  • A sale at 15 times revenue instead of 10 would cut the needed growth to about 23% a year.
  • Shares issued for the 2026 notes in August are not yet on a filed cover, so the value is slightly understated.
current state · 2026-10-09written 2026-10-10

Where we disagree with the market

The market believes

Cloudflare is the network AI agents will run on, and the jump in its shares is the start of a decade of fast growth.

We believe

Cloudflare is a strong business growing about 30%, priced as if agent revenue had already arrived and lasted ten years.

The market has moved ahead of the numbers. Agent traffic is real, but Cloudflare reports no revenue from it, and pay in shares still costs more than the spare cash.

The evidence against us is strong: growth is speeding up, existing customers are spending more, and the forecast has been raised twice. A 2027 forecast of 35% growth or more, with more spare cash, would show the price is earned.

What analysts say, and the evidence
Analysts positive
68%
of 34, 1 Oct
Four months earlier
66%
of 35, 1 Jun
The evidence under this - 9 claims
C17facthigh confidence
Cloudflare closed at $166.99 on 10 April 2026 and $360.93 on 9 October 2026, up 116.1%, while sales per share rose 14.8% and the price per sales dollar 88.2%; the year's range was $158.83 to $370.35.
current state · 2026-10-09written 2026-10-10
C18facthigh confidence
Of 41 analysts 29 rate Cloudflare a buy and 2 a sell; the positive share was 67.6% of 34 on 1 October against 59.5% of 37 in February, and targets set in the last month average 25.3% above the year's.
current state · 2026-10-01written 2026-10-10
C25management claimmedium confidence
The chief executive said non-human traffic passed human traffic on Cloudflare's network in Q2 2026, that over 80% of major AI companies are customers, and that developers on its platform reached 7.4 million.
against this
  • None of the three figures is in a filing; the chief executive said he had called the crossing date wrong at every point.
  • Much non-human traffic is blocked, and Cloudflare says it does not charge customers more for blocking it.
current state · 2026-08-06written 2026-10-10
C28management claimlow confidence
In Q3 2026 Cloudflare announced tools for sites to charge agents, wallets for agents to pay and an agent identity service, which the chief executive says would earn fractions of a penny per request; no revenue is disclosed.
against this
  • The chief executive says the payment system must handle about 10 million transactions a second, far beyond any payment network today, which is unproven.
  • The products are announced, not reported, so their uptake cannot be checked.
current state · 2026-08-06written 2026-10-10
C29management claimmedium confidence
Management does not report Workers or AI revenue; the chief executive calls Workers a meaningful contributor, the finance chief names it the main source of product growth, and 2 million developers joined in Q2.
against this

Asked directly for the size of the Workers business on the Q2 call, management declined to give it.

current state · 2026-08-06written 2026-10-10
C06management claimmedium confidence
Management guides 2026 revenue to $2,864M to $2,870M, up about 32%, raised from $2,785M to $2,795M in February and $2,805M to $2,813M in May, and Q3 revenue to $736M to $737M, up about 31%.
against this
  • Q2 revenue of $696.1M beat the $664M to $665M guide by about $31M, so the guide has sat well below results.
  • The finance chief says pool-of-funds and usage deals make quarters harder to forecast, so a miss is possible even in a strong year.
forwardwritten 2026-10-10
C04facthigh confidence
Dollar-based net retention was 120% in Q2 2026 against 114% a year earlier; for the fourth quarters of 2023, 2024 and 2025 it was 115%, 111% and 120%.
against this
  • The rate fell to 111% at the end of 2024 before recovering, so it moves with spending cycles.
  • It nets customers who leave against those who expand; Cloudflare does not report gross retention.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-10
C11estimatehigh confidence
Free cash flow was $260.6M in 2025, 12.0% of revenue, and $314.9M over the four quarters to June 2026, about 12.5% of revenue; network spending is guided to 14% to 15% of 2026 revenue.
against this
  • Q2 free cash flow carried $99M of severance paid in the quarter, so the run rate is understated by a one-off.
  • Network spending ran at 7% of revenue in Q2 against a 14% to 15% full-year guide, so the second half will spend more.
historical · TTM to 2026-06-30written 2026-10-10
C12estimatehigh confidence
Stock pay was $451.5M in 2025, 20.8% of revenue, and $507.7M over the four quarters to June 2026, about 20.2%, more than free cash flow, which leaves about minus $192.8M after stock pay.
against this

The four quarters include $27.9M of stock pay from the restructuring, which will not recur.

historical · TTM to 2026-06-30written 2026-10-10
06

What could go wrong, and how we would know

The risks

  • Heavy pay in shares. Pay in shares was $507.7M over the last year, about a fifth of revenue and more than the spare cash the business produced.
  • New shares from its bonds. Its 2030 bonds turn into shares at about $248, below today's price, so owners will be diluted if the price holds.
  • Gross margin keeps falling. Gross margin fell from 77.3% in 2024 to 71.8% in Q2 2026 as network costs rose.
  • The big clouds compete. Amazon, Google and Microsoft sell similar tools inside services customers already pay for, and are far larger.
  • Its own outages. Cloudflare says its own errors have caused network outages and data leaks before, and each one dents trust in the gatekeeper.
  • A price built on hope. The shares more than doubled in six months, mostly on a higher price per sales dollar, so a disappointment could cut them sharply.
The evidence under this - 8 claims
C12estimatehigh confidence
Stock pay was $451.5M in 2025, 20.8% of revenue, and $507.7M over the four quarters to June 2026, about 20.2%, more than free cash flow, which leaves about minus $192.8M after stock pay.
against this

The four quarters include $27.9M of stock pay from the restructuring, which will not recur.

historical · TTM to 2026-06-30written 2026-10-10
C13facthigh confidence
Diluted weighted shares rose from 312.3M in 2021 to 348.4M in 2025 and were 354.3M in Q2 2026, up 2.0% in a year; 356,079,715 shares were outstanding on 21 July 2026.
current state · 2026-07-21written 2026-10-10
C14facthigh confidence
Cloudflare owes $2.0B of zero-interest notes due 2030 convertible at about $247.67 a share and, since 13 August 2026, $2.175B due 2031 convertible at about $496.94; $1,293.8M of 2026 notes matured on 15 August.
current state · 2026-08-15written 2026-10-10
C10factmedium confidence
GAAP gross margin fell from 77.3% in 2024 to 74.5% in 2025 and 71.8% in Q2 2026; management blames more paid traffic moving network costs into cost of revenue and expects it to stabilise.
against this
  • The explanation is management's; AI inference and computing products may carry lower margins than security, and no product margins are disclosed.
  • The adjusted gross margin rose 0.3 points from Q1, the first rise in eight quarters.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-10
C34facthigh confidence
Cloudflare's 10-K names no rival company, only three classes: on-premises hardware vendors, cloud point-solution vendors and services from the public clouds, and warns large cloud and telecom firms could enter its markets.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-10
C41facthigh confidence
Cloudflare's 10-K says its own errors have contributed to outages on its global network and to leaks of customer data in the past.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-10
C35facthigh confidence
Directors and officers held 99.0% of the ten-vote Class B shares and 52.4% of the votes; in June 2026 holders approved a non-voting Class C share split, 382.3M votes for and 200.6M against.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-10
C17facthigh confidence
Cloudflare closed at $166.99 on 10 April 2026 and $360.93 on 9 October 2026, up 116.1%, while sales per share rose 14.8% and the price per sales dollar 88.2%; the year's range was $158.83 to $370.35.
current state · 2026-10-09written 2026-10-10
What we still do not know
  • How much Workers and the AI agent tools earn; management calls Workers meaningful but will not give the figure.
  • Whether websites will actually pay to charge agents, and at what price per request.
  • Whether gross margin steadies near 72%, as management expects, or keeps falling as paid traffic grows.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C29management claimmedium confidence
Management does not report Workers or AI revenue; the chief executive calls Workers a meaningful contributor, the finance chief names it the main source of product growth, and 2 million developers joined in Q2.
against this

Asked directly for the size of the Workers business on the Q2 call, management declined to give it.

current state · 2026-08-06written 2026-10-10
C28management claimlow confidence
In Q3 2026 Cloudflare announced tools for sites to charge agents, wallets for agents to pay and an agent identity service, which the chief executive says would earn fractions of a penny per request; no revenue is disclosed.
against this
  • The chief executive says the payment system must handle about 10 million transactions a second, far beyond any payment network today, which is unproven.
  • The products are announced, not reported, so their uptake cannot be checked.
current state · 2026-08-06written 2026-10-10
C10factmedium confidence
GAAP gross margin fell from 77.3% in 2024 to 74.5% in 2025 and 71.8% in Q2 2026; management blames more paid traffic moving network costs into cost of revenue and expects it to stabilise.
against this
  • The explanation is management's; AI inference and computing products may carry lower margins than security, and no product margins are disclosed.
  • The adjusted gross margin rose 0.3 points from Q1, the first rise in eight quarters.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-10

What would change our view

  1. Unattractive→NeutralA lower price on unchanged growth

    It needs all of:

    • ○The company value falls to 25 times the last year's revenue, with growth still near 30%.about ≈$177.62 today, 51% below the last close
    • ○Third-quarter 2026 revenue grows 28% or more from a year earlier.checked at the next results, due by 29 Oct
  2. Unattractive→NeutralGrowth and cash that outrun the price

    It needs all of:

    • ○The first forecast for 2027 calls for revenue growth of 35% or more.checked at the next results, due by 29 Oct
    • ○Spare cash reaches 20% of revenue over four quarters.checked at the next results, due by 29 Oct
We would also be wrong if
  • Existing customers spend less than 112% of what they spent a year earlier, in any quarter of 2027.
  • Customers paying over $100,000 a year grow less than 18% in a year.
  • Gross margin falls below 70% for two quarters running.

What is coming

  • 29 October 2026 Q3 2026 results: Whether revenue beats the $736M to $737M guide by as much as Q2 did and net retention holds near 120%.
Every dated event ahead
  • 29 October 2026 Q3 2026 results: Whether revenue beats the $736M to $737M guide by as much as Q2 did and net retention holds near 120%.
  • February 2027 Q4 2026 results and the first 2027 forecast: Whether the 2027 forecast calls for growth near 28%, as analysts expect, or 35% and more.
  • May 2027 Q1 2027 results: Whether gross margin has steadied above 71% and stock pay has fallen after the job cut.
Since we wrote this
Written
10 Oct
Price the thesis read
$360.93
9 Oct
  • 11 OctThesis reviewThe agent line lifted out and priced as a betThe owner's rule of 2026-10-11: a line a Futures theory names a company for, with no revenue shown, is early and owes a bet that cannot be declined.
  • 10 OctThesis writtenUnattractive, medium convictionWritten nineteen days before Q3 2026 results, after the shares doubled from April on two forecast raises and the agent story.

Also checked 2 times with nothing new to act on.

Sources 25

Where this came from

Sources - 25

Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.

  1. S01primarycompany filing2026-02-26
    business description, network size, customers, concentration, competition, risk factors, net retention history, revenue by geography, stock pay
    backsC01C02C04C05C08C12C23C34C38C41C45
  2. S02primarycompany release2026-08-06
    Q2 results, GAAP to adjusted reconciliation, balance sheet, cash flow, free cash flow, Q3 and 2026 guidance
    Total revenue of $2,864.0 to $2,870.0 million
    backsC05C06C08C10C11C15
  3. S03primarycompany filing2026-08-06
    key metrics, net retention, large customers, remaining performance obligations, restructuring note, convertible notes, share count, revenue by geography
    backsC03C04C07C09C12C13C14C15C16C23C45
  4. S04primarycompany release2026-02-10
    2025 results, free cash flow, gross margins, the first 2026 guidance
    Total revenue of $2,785.0 to $2,795.0 million
    backsC06C10C11
  5. S05primarytranscript2026-08-06
    Cloudflare Q2 2026 earnings call transcript
    large-customer revenue share, non-human traffic, developers, Workers, agent payment products, gross margin explanation, restructuring cash; questions from Barclays, RBC, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Citi, William Blair, Stifel and Scotiabank
    Revenue contribution from large customers was 73% of revenue during the quarter, up from 71% in the second quarter last year. ... For the first time in human history, in Q2, more than 50% of the traffic flowing across Cloudflare's network was not human. ... we expect network CapEx to be 14% to 15% of revenue for full year 2026.
    backsC03C07C09C10C11C25C28C29C42
  6. S06primarycompany release2026-05-07
    Q1 results, the workforce plan and its first charge estimate, the May guidance
    As part of the plan, we expect to reduce our current workforce by approximately 1,100 people.
    backsC06C09
  7. S07primarycompany filing2026-08-13
    the 2031 notes' size, rate, conversion price and proceeds
    equivalent to an initial conversion price of approximately $496.94 per share, which represents a conversion premium of approximately 60% to the last reported sale price of $310.59
    backsC14
  8. S08primarycompany filing2026-06-09
    executive biographies, beneficial ownership and voting power, pay design, the Class C proposal
    backsC35C36C37
  9. S09primaryindustry data2026-10-10
    Cloudflare's share of websites, measured outside the company
    Cloudflare is used by 85.5% of all the websites whose reverse proxy service we know. This is 26.8% of all websites . ... Usage of the Cloudflare CDN is now at 25%, up from 19.6% one year ago and 3.9% ten years ago.
    backsC24
  10. S10primarygovernment data2025-04-10
    firms by size; 500 and over is the total less the under-500 line
    The Number of Firms and Establishments, Employment, Annual Payroll, and Receipts by State, Industry, and Enterprise Employment Size: 2022 ... United States, Total, 01: Total, 6395635 firms, 135748407 employment ... 19: <500 employees, 6374594 firms, 62250556 employment
    backsC20
  11. S11primarycompany filing2026-02-25
    a rival naming Cloudflare and the public clouds
    backsC32
  12. S12primarycompany filing2026-02-20
    Akamai's three offerings
    backsC30
  13. S13primarycompany filing2026-09-03
    Zscaler's zero trust products
    backsC33
  14. S14primarycompany release2025-10-14
    the payment networks' use of Web Bot Auth
    Cloudflare and Visa have worked together to develop and introduce the Trusted Agent Protocol , a new protocol that enables payment networks to integrate Web Bot Auth ... Mastercard is incorporating Web Bot Auth into Mastercard Agent Pay
    backsC27
  15. S15primaryindustry data2026-01-07
    growth of AI-referred retail traffic
    This season, traffic to retail sites from generative AI tools (shoppers clicking on a link to a retail site) increased by 693.4% compared to the year prior. ... While the base of users remains modest, the uptick shows the value AI can deliver as a shopping assistant.
    backsC26
  16. S16secondaryvendor data2026-10-10
    Research pack, frozen 2026-10-10 (FMP market data, FINRA short interest, filed cohort)
    daily closes, the price decomposition, analyst estimates and ratings, price-target drift, cohort multiples, short interest
    backsC16C17C18C19C31
  17. S17secondarynews2026-10-10
    the Deno purchase and its undisclosed terms
    The financial terms of the acquisition were not disclosed. Deno had raised a total of $26 million , including a Series A led by Sequoia.
    backsC40
  18. S18primarycompany filing2026-02-11
    Agent Pay described from the payment network's side
    backsC27
  19. S19primarycompany filing2026-06-30
    votes for and against the Class C share proposal
    backsC35
  20. S20primarycompany filing2026-10-10
    five years of filed revenue, costs, stock pay, capital spending and share counts
    backsC05C13C38C42
  21. S21primarycompany filing2026-10-10
    Cloudflare insider Form 4 filings read by insider_fetch.py, 2025-10 to 2026-10
    760 open-market sales, 756 under 10b5-1 plans, no purchases
    backsC39
  22. S22primaryindustry data2025-07-30
    what a breach costs the buyer
    The global average cost of a data breach fell to $4.44 million, the first decline in five years, while the average U.S. cost of a breach reached a record $10.22 million.
    backsC43
  23. S23primarytranscript2026-08-06
    Cloudflare Q2 2026 earnings call transcript: the chief executive on agent micropayments
    the chief executive's own sizing of paid agent requests, and the Visa comparison
    we handle, let's say, about 0.5 billion requests per second through Cloudflare's network. We roughly estimate that somewhere between 1% and 10% of those, you could monetize through some sort of a micro transaction. Again, these will be tiny fractions of pennies.
    backsC46C48
  24. S24primarycompany release2026-10-02
    the price Cloudflare charges developers per request served
    Standard | 10 million included per month +$0.30 per additional million
    backsC47C48
  25. S25primarycompany release2026-07-28
    the stage of the agent payment product
    Pay per crawl is currently in closed beta. ... Cloudflare acts as the Merchant of Record for pay per crawl and also provides the underlying technical infrastructure.
    backsC49
Rendered from content/NET/thesis.json · thesis reviewed 2026-10-11. This page explains a company; it does not say what to pay, when to buy or how much.