← All thesesFSLYUnattractiveMedium convictionTuesday 6 October 2026עברית

Fastly

Fastly runs a worldwide network that makes big websites and apps load fast and keeps attackers and bad bots out.

Our viewUnattractive Medium conviction
The scores
The profile · 1-4
Growth3/4 ↑

Revenue grew 23% in Q2 and 15% in 2025, but the ten largest customers drove it, others grew 12%, and part was one-off.

Business quality2/4 ↑

Delivery is multi-sourced and priced down every year against larger rivals; rising retention and security sales are real but rest on a few customers.

Financial position3/4 ↑

About $14M of net cash and positive operating cash, but $150M of 7.75% notes fall due in 2028 and free cash flow is thin.

Execution record3/4 ↑

The 2026 guide was raised from $700M-$720M to $732M-$746M, but the team is a year old and a control weakness was only just fixed.

Per share capture2/4 →

Share pay of a fifth of sales lifts the count about 8% a year, both notes are in the money, and nothing is bought back.

Potential2/4 →

The 2029 plan needs delivery above its market and security near 30% a year; little is signed beyond a year, and nobody outside sizes it.

Risk profile3/4 ↓

One serious concentration: the TikTok group is 11% of revenue and the top ten 37%, disclosed and survivable if traffic moves.

Valuation2/4 ↓

About 6 times trailing sales and 26 times the 2029 plan's free cash flow: the price assumes the plan works, leaving little if it half-happens.

Evidence quality3/4 →

Financials are filed and position is measured from outside, but the top-ten split, pricing and AI traffic are management's word; the prize is uncounted.

The bet · 2-3 years
Safe, little upside1.2×

If it works 1.2× · if it fails you keep about 100%.

The Verdict

We rate Fastly Unattractive. The business is mixed: sales grew 23% last quarter, but mostly from its ten largest customers, the prices it charges for delivery fall every year, and paying staff in shares keeps adding new shares. The price is full: at about 6 times a year's sales, buyers already count management's 2029 targets as met, so a miss would hurt. As a bet on its fast-growing security business it is safe but with little upside: delivery alone, valued like its oldest rival, covers most of today's price, and security growing near 30% a year adds only a little.

The long caseAs bots and AI agents overtake people on the web, every site must sort them at the edge; Fastly must sell that faster than delivery prices fall.

The evidence under this - 8 claims
C02facthigh confidence
Revenue was $183.3M in Q2 2026, up 23% from $148.7M: Network Services $133.9M (+17%), Security $41.7M (+43%), Other $7.7M (+69%).
against this
  • A little under half of the quarter's $10M beat over the guide was one-off events such as the World Cup, by the finance chief's account (C16).
  • Growth came mostly from the ten largest customers: they grew 48% and everyone else 12% (C04).
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-06
C04facthigh confidence
In Q2 2026 the ten largest customers were 37% of revenue, against 31% a year earlier; their revenue grew 48% and everyone else's 12%.
against this

Management says the top ten also buy more security and that growth outside them was 17% in Q1, so one quarter may overstate the gap.

historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-06
C14management claimmedium confidence
The finance chief said network prices fall by mid-single digits a year, partly volume tiers, while traffic grows in the low 20s percent.
against this

Akamai announced surcharges in April 2026 and the finance chief called pricing rational since rivals exited, so the erosion may slow.

current state · 2026-08-05written 2026-10-06
C09facthigh confidence
Share pay was about 20% of sales over the twelve months to June 2026, and weighted basic shares rose to 157.6M in Q2 from 145.8M a year earlier, about 8%.
historical · twelve months to June 2026written 2026-10-06
C12inferencehigh confidence
At $26.01, 159.3M shares are worth about $4.14B; with $324M of notes and $337.5M of cash the business is valued at about $4.13B, about 6.0 times trailing revenue of $687.2M and 5.6 times the 2026 guide's midpoint.
derived159.3M shares on the 10-Q cover (S04) times the October 5 close of $26.01 (S20); notes at carrying value and cash and securities from the 10-Q (C10); trailing revenue from the filed quarters (S22); the guide's midpoint of $739M (C11).
against this
  • The vendor puts company value at $4.40B because it leaves out $247.7M of marketable securities.
  • If both notes convert, about 19.4M more shares are issued and the debt goes away, so the value per share is about the same.
current state · 2026-10-05written 2026-10-06
C13management claimmedium confidence
At its September 2026 Investor Day management set 2029 targets of $1.1B to $1.3B of revenue, 67% to 71% gross margin, 20% to 22% operating margin and 12% to 15% free cash flow margin.
against this
  • The operating margin is adjusted and excludes share pay of about a fifth of revenue (C09).
  • The low end, 14% a year, is below the 18% guided for 2026.
forwardwritten 2026-10-06
C42estimatemedium confidence
Holding network services and compute near 9% a year to 2028 gives them about $660M of revenue, worth about $3.6B at Akamai's 5.5 times sales.
derivedNetwork Services $477.8M in 2025 (C03), the 2026 guide of 9% to 11% (C15) and about 8% after; Other $21.2M growing toward $40M (C02); Akamai's 5.5 times from the cohort (S20).
against this
  • Network services grew 17% in Q2 on the largest customers' traffic; if that holds the core is larger.
  • At the market's 5% to 6% the core would be about $610M.
forwardwritten 2026-10-06
C49estimatemedium confidence
Holding security near 30% a year from its trailing $150M gives about $300M of security revenue by the end of 2028.
derivedSecurity revenue over the four quarters to June 2026: $34.0M, $35.4M, $38.8M and $41.7M, about $150M (S03); 30% a year for about 2.5 years, inside the 25% to 30% management named (C15) and below the 43% of Q2 (C02).
against this
  • Q2's 43% included cross-sell into the largest customers (C04), which may not repeat.
  • Cloudflare, Akamai and the clouds all sell the same firewall and bot defence (C21).
forwardwritten 2026-10-06
01

The company

When you open Reddit, the New York Times or Spotify, much of what loads comes from a nearby Fastly server rather than the company's own computers far away. Fastly keeps copies of pages, video and software close to users so they load fast, checks each request to block attacks and bad bots, and runs small pieces of customer code there too.

About 624 customers pay over $100,000 a year and bring 94% of revenue. Without Fastly they would serve from their own cloud or use Akamai or Cloudflare.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C01facthigh confidence
Fastly runs one global edge network that delivers its customers' websites, video and software, filters attacks and bots, and runs customer code, sold mostly by usage under contracts of about twelve months with monthly minimums.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-06
C17facthigh confidence
W3Techs finds Fastly on 3.0% of websites whose reverse proxy it knows, 0.9% of all websites, against 85.3% for Cloudflare, with Reddit, the New York Times, Spotify and PayPal among Fastly's sites.
against this

W3Techs counts sites, not traffic or revenue; Fastly serves few, very large customers, so its share of spending is far higher than its share of sites.

current state · 2026-10-06written 2026-10-06
C25facthigh confidence
Customers paying over $100,000 a year numbered 624 in Q2 2026, against 634 in Q1 and 622 a year earlier, and brought 94% of revenue.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-06
C21facthigh confidence
Fastly's 10-K names as competitors Akamai, Cloudflare, F5, Thales' Imperva, point CDNs such as Bunny CDN and CDN77, and the CDN and firewall services of AWS, Google Cloud and Azure.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-06
C45inferencemedium confidence
Most of Fastly's large customers use more than one delivery network and can shift traffic between them within their monthly minimums, so delivery is bought largely on price and performance.
derivedusage-based contracts with monthly minimums (C01); mid-single-digit price erosion (C14); the 10-K's statement that rivals compete on price and performance (S01).
against this

Net retention of 117% (C06) and rising gross margin (C34) say customers are adding, not leaving.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-06

How it makes money

Delivery, 73% of revenue, is billed by the amount of traffic carried, above a monthly minimum, under contracts of about a year. Security, 23%, is mostly yearly subscriptions paid in advance, which makes it steadier. The rest is running customers' code. Contracts already signed but not yet delivered come to $340.9M, most of it due within a year.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C02facthigh confidence
Revenue was $183.3M in Q2 2026, up 23% from $148.7M: Network Services $133.9M (+17%), Security $41.7M (+43%), Other $7.7M (+69%).
against this
  • A little under half of the quarter's $10M beat over the guide was one-off events such as the World Cup, by the finance chief's account (C16).
  • Growth came mostly from the ten largest customers: they grew 48% and everyone else 12% (C04).
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-06
C01facthigh confidence
Fastly runs one global edge network that delivers its customers' websites, video and software, filters attacks and bots, and runs customer code, sold mostly by usage under contracts of about twelve months with monthly minimums.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-06
C39facthigh confidence
Security is sold mostly as annual subscriptions billed in advance, while delivery is billed on usage.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-06
C07facthigh confidence
Remaining performance obligations were $340.9M at June 30, 2026, up 38%, with 79% due within twelve months.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-06
Where the money comes from, stream by stream
StreamShare of sales (Q2 2026)How it earns it
Network Services73.0%Delivery of websites, video, apps and downloads, billed on traffic above monthly minimums; prices fall mid-single digits a year while traffic grows about 20%.
Security22.8%Web firewall, bot management, DDoS and API protection, mostly annual subscriptions billed ahead; the fastest-growing established line.
Other (compute and observability)4.2%Running customer code on the edge network and logging, small and growing about two-thirds a year.

Who runs it

Kip Compton became chief executive in June 2025, promoted from running products after his predecessor resigned, and Richard Wong joined as finance chief that August. Insiders own only about 4% of the company, most of it the founder Artur Bergman's, and he has sold steadily under a set plan. Nobody inside bought shares in the past year. Bonuses pay on revenue and, from 2026, on committed revenue and free cash, never on profit after share pay.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C29facthigh confidence
Kip Compton became chief executive in June 2025, promoted from product chief after Todd Nightingale resigned; Richard Wong became finance chief in August 2025; Scott Lovett, formerly of Akamai and Imperva, runs sales.
current state · 2026-03-15written 2026-10-06
C27facthigh confidence
Directors and officers owned 4.2% of the shares at March 15, 2026, the founder Artur Bergman 3.4%; Vanguard held 10.3% and BlackRock 7.3%.
current state · 2026-03-15written 2026-10-06
C28facthigh confidence
2025 bonuses paid on revenue against a $600M target and on adjusted operating loss, at 135.4% of target, in fully vested shares; 2026 performance shares pay on committed recurring revenue, free cash flow and relative share return.
historical · 2025 and 2026 planswritten 2026-10-06
C26facthigh confidence
In the year to October 2026 insiders made no open-market purchases and 174 sales of 4.67M shares, 87% under prearranged plans; the finance chief sold 148,015 shares at $28.61 on August 18 outside a plan.
against this

Most sales were scheduled, and the founder's plan sales began in late 2025 at under $9.

historical · 2025-10-06 to 2026-10-06written 2026-10-06
02

Why it wins, and who could beat it

Why customers come back

Engineers write their caching and security rules in Fastly's own tools, so moving everything elsewhere is work, and customers tend to add products rather than leave: for every dollar existing customers spent a year ago they now spend $1.17.

But most large customers also run a second network and can shift traffic without rewriting anything. That caps what Fastly can charge: delivery prices fall by a mid-single-digit percentage every year, by management's account, while traffic grows about 20%.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C06facthigh confidence
Trailing twelve-month net retention was 117% in Q2 2026, up from 113% in Q1 and 104% a year earlier.
against this

The rise came with the top ten customers growing 48% (C04), so it may measure a few large accounts' traffic more than broad expansion.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-06
C45inferencemedium confidence
Most of Fastly's large customers use more than one delivery network and can shift traffic between them within their monthly minimums, so delivery is bought largely on price and performance.
derivedusage-based contracts with monthly minimums (C01); mid-single-digit price erosion (C14); the 10-K's statement that rivals compete on price and performance (S01).
against this

Net retention of 117% (C06) and rising gross margin (C34) say customers are adding, not leaving.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-06
C14management claimmedium confidence
The finance chief said network prices fall by mid-single digits a year, partly volume tiers, while traffic grows in the low 20s percent.
against this

Akamai announced surcharges in April 2026 and the finance chief called pricing rational since rivals exited, so the erosion may slow.

current state · 2026-08-05written 2026-10-06
C34facthigh confidence
Gross margin was 63.3% in Q2 2026 against 54.5% a year earlier; stretching server lives from five to six years cut depreciation by $2.9M in the quarter.
against this

About 1.6 points of the rise is the accounting change, not the business.

historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-06
C17facthigh confidence
W3Techs finds Fastly on 3.0% of websites whose reverse proxy it knows, 0.9% of all websites, against 85.3% for Cloudflare, with Reddit, the New York Times, Spotify and PayPal among Fastly's sites.
against this

W3Techs counts sites, not traffic or revenue; Fastly serves few, very large customers, so its share of spending is far higher than its share of sites.

current state · 2026-10-06written 2026-10-06

The threat

Cloudflare is the giant: it sits in front of a quarter of all websites, up from a fifth a year earlier, against under 1% for Fastly. Akamai sells the same delivery and security to the same large companies, and Amazon, Google and Microsoft bundle their own networks with the cloud accounts customers already pay for.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C18facthigh confidence
W3Techs reports Cloudflare's CDN on 25% of all websites in September 2026, up from 19.6% a year earlier.
current state · 2026-09-04written 2026-10-06
C19facthigh confidence
Akamai's 10-K describes three offerings, security, cloud computing and delivery, sold to the same web-facing enterprises Fastly sells to.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-06
C20facthigh confidence
Cloudflare's 10-K lists content delivery, application security and serverless compute among its products, alongside corporate-network services Fastly does not sell.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-06
C21facthigh confidence
Fastly's 10-K names as competitors Akamai, Cloudflare, F5, Thales' Imperva, point CDNs such as Bunny CDN and CDN77, and the CDN and firewall services of AWS, Google Cloud and Azure.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-06
C17facthigh confidence
W3Techs finds Fastly on 3.0% of websites whose reverse proxy it knows, 0.9% of all websites, against 85.3% for Cloudflare, with Reddit, the New York Times, Spotify and PayPal among Fastly's sites.
against this

W3Techs counts sites, not traffic or revenue; Fastly serves few, very large customers, so its share of spending is far higher than its share of sites.

current state · 2026-10-06written 2026-10-06

The rivals: NET, AKAM, AMZN, GOOGL, MSFT, FFIV, and 1 more that is private, in-house or listed abroad.

Who else does this, rival by rival
TickerRivalWhere it competesHow far alongPriced against it
NETCloudflarePriced against it: YesNetwork ServicesOn saleYes
AKAMAkamaiPriced against it: YesNetwork ServicesOn saleYes
AMZN · GOOGL · MSFTAWS CloudFront, Google Cloud CDN and Azure Front DoorPriced against it: Shown, not countedNetwork ServicesOn saleShown, not counted
PrivateBunny CDN, CDN77 and QwiltPriced against it: PrivateNetwork ServicesOn salePrivate
NET · AKAMCloudflare and Akamai application securityPriced against it: YesSecurityOn saleYes
FFIVF5 and Thales' ImpervaPriced against it: One segment onlySecurityOn saleOne segment only
03

How big it could get

How big this could get

About a third of all websites use a network like Fastly's, and Fastly is on 3% of those, mostly very large ones. Its finance chief says the delivery market grows 5% to 6% a year. Management puts the whole market at $22B, but that is the seller's number. No outside body counts what companies spend on delivery and web security, so the true size is not known.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C17facthigh confidence
W3Techs finds Fastly on 3.0% of websites whose reverse proxy it knows, 0.9% of all websites, against 85.3% for Cloudflare, with Reddit, the New York Times, Spotify and PayPal among Fastly's sites.
against this

W3Techs counts sites, not traffic or revenue; Fastly serves few, very large customers, so its share of spending is far higher than its share of sites.

current state · 2026-10-06written 2026-10-06
C18facthigh confidence
W3Techs reports Cloudflare's CDN on 25% of all websites in September 2026, up from 19.6% a year earlier.
current state · 2026-09-04written 2026-10-06
C15management claimmedium confidence
The finance chief put the network services market's growth at 5% to 6% a year and Fastly's 2026 network growth at 9% to 11%, with security at 25% to 30%.
against this

Network services grew 17% in Q2, far above that range, on the largest customers' traffic and one-off events (C02, C16).

forwardwritten 2026-10-06
C37management claimlow confidence
Management sizes its market at $22B, of which it holds about 3%.
against this

The figure is the seller's and no method was published; it counts security and compute markets Fastly has barely entered.

current state · 2026-09-22written 2026-10-06
Where the growth is coming from, business by business

Where the growth is coming from

BusinessShare of revenueGrowth: last quarterLast half-yearLast yearShare in 3 years at its half-year rate
Network Services73%+16.6%+14.0%+12.3%55%
Security23%+42.6%+44.5%+34.0%35%
Rest of the company4%+68.6%+67.7%+62.7%10%
Whole company100%+23.3%+21.5%+17.9%100%

On the filed split through 2026-06-30, if each business keeps its last half-year's growth, the company grows about 23% next year and 28% in year 3, against 20.4% over the last twelve months. Security carries the case: it grows 44% against 17% for the rest, and would be 35% of revenue by then. A scenario, not a forecast: no business holds its rate.

How we read it: The score reads the blend: security's 44% is real but rides delivery customers, and the blend's 21% half-year pace already includes it.

04

The results

The numbers

Is it growing?Steady

Sales grew 20% over the twelve months to Jun 2026, faster than the 15% in the year to Dec 2025.

Dec 2021: $354MDec 2022: $433MDec 2023: $506MDec 2024: $544MDec 2025: $624M12 mo to Jun 2026: $687M$354M$687M
Is it profitable?Losing

Operating margin is −12%, up from −39% in the year to Dec 2023.

Dec 2021: −62%Dec 2022: −57%Dec 2023: −39%Dec 2024: −31%Dec 2025: −19%12 mo to Jun 2026: −12%−62%−12%
Does growth pay off?Pays off

Running costs take 73¢ of each sales dollar, down from 115¢ in the year to Dec 2021.

Dec 2021: 115¢Dec 2022: 105¢Dec 2023: 92¢Dec 2024: 85¢Dec 2025: 76¢12 mo to Jun 2026: 73¢115¢73¢
Does it earn good returns?Poor

Shareholders' money lost 8.4% a year, up from −21% in the year to Dec 2021.

Dec 2021: −21%Dec 2022: −19%Dec 2023: −14%Dec 2024: −16%Dec 2025: −13%12 mo to Jun 2026: −8.4%−21%−8.4%
Is it making cash?Solid

It turned 7.4% of sales into free cash, $50.7M over the last twelve months.

Dec 2021: −$73.3MDec 2022: −$89.6MDec 2023: −$10.6MDec 2024: $6.08MDec 2025: $65.8M12 mo to Jun 2026: $50.7M−$73.3M$50.7M
Is the balance sheet safe?Net cash

It holds $337M of cash against $324M of debt, $13.5M more cash than it owes.

Dec 2021: −$405MDec 2022: −$187MDec 2023: −$20.8MDec 2024: −$41.7MDec 2025: −$80.0K12 mo to Jun 2026: $13.5M−$405M$13.5M
Are shares being diluted?Diluting

The share count rose 36% in 4.5 years, and pay in shares costs 20% of sales.

Dec 2021: 116MDec 2022: 122MDec 2023: 129MDec 2024: 138MDec 2025: 147M12 mo to Jun 2026: 158M116M158M
All the numbers

Filed figures from the company's 10-K and 10-Q, read 2026-10-06. Fiscal years end in December.

Dec 2021Dec 2022Dec 2023Dec 2024Dec 202512 mo to Jun 2026
Size and growth
Sales$354M$433M$506M$544M$624M$687M
Sales growth+22%+22%+17%+7.4%+15%+20%
Profit
Gross margin53%48%53%54%57%61%
Operating margin−62%−57%−39%−31%−19%−12%
Net margin−63%−44%−26%−29%−19%−12%
What growth costs, per sales dollar
Research and development36%36%30%25%26%24%
Sales and marketing43%42%38%37%32%31%
General and admin36%28%23%21%18%18%
Pay in shares40%34%27%20%19%20%
Capital spending9.8%4.6%2.2%1.9%4.6%10%
Cash
Cash from operations−$38.5M−$69.6M$362K$16.4M$94.4M$120M
Free cash flow−$73.3M−$89.6M−$10.6M$6.08M$65.8M$50.7M
Balance sheet
Cash and short-term investments$528M$518M$323M$296M$362M$337M
Debt$933M$705M$344M$338M$362M$324M
Net cash−$405M−$187M−$20.8M−$41.7M−$80.0K$13.5M
Returns and shares
Shares (diluted)116M122M129M138M147M158M

What growth costs

Fastly now spends far less of each sales dollar to grow: selling costs fell from 43 cents in 2021 to 31, and share pay from 40 cents to 20. But it is spending more on servers, 10 cents of each sales dollar against 2 in 2024, so cash grows more slowly than profit.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C46facthigh confidence
From 2021 to the twelve months to June 2026, sales and marketing fell from 43% to 31% of sales, R&D from 36% to 24%, admin from 36% to 18% and share pay from 40% to 20%.
historical · 2021 to June 2026written 2026-10-06
C35facthigh confidence
Capital spending rose to 10% of sales over the twelve months to June 2026 from 1.9% in 2024, as Fastly buys servers ahead of traffic at higher memory prices.
historical · twelve months to June 2026written 2026-10-06
C38facthigh confidence
Fastly had 1,140 employees at the end of 2025, about $547,000 of revenue each, against about $318,000 in 2019.
historical · 2019 to 2025written 2026-10-06

The last report (5 Aug)

Quarter ended June 2026, filed figures.

23%
Sales growth
against the same quarter a year earlier
6.0%
Growth from the quarter before
against 0.2% the quarter before that
-8¢
Operating profit
per dollar of sales

Q2 2026 looked strong: sales up 23%, security up 43%, and gross margin, the share of each sales dollar left after running the network, up to 63.3% from 54.5%.

Underneath, the ten largest customers grew 48% and everyone else 12%. The finance chief said a little under half the quarter's beat came from one-off events such as the World Cup, and the Q3 guide of $184M to $190M is roughly flat on Q2.

What it did to the thesisIt proved growth is back and that customers are spending more, but it showed the growth is coming mostly from the largest customers and one-off events, which leaves open whether it lasts beyond them.

The quarter in detail

Sales growth from the previous quarter, filed figures.

Earnings per share $0.15 against $0.07 expected; $-0.10 as filed, the gap being what the company adds back.

The evidence under this - 6 claims
C02facthigh confidence
Revenue was $183.3M in Q2 2026, up 23% from $148.7M: Network Services $133.9M (+17%), Security $41.7M (+43%), Other $7.7M (+69%).
against this
  • A little under half of the quarter's $10M beat over the guide was one-off events such as the World Cup, by the finance chief's account (C16).
  • Growth came mostly from the ten largest customers: they grew 48% and everyone else 12% (C04).
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-06
C04facthigh confidence
In Q2 2026 the ten largest customers were 37% of revenue, against 31% a year earlier; their revenue grew 48% and everyone else's 12%.
against this

Management says the top ten also buy more security and that growth outside them was 17% in Q1, so one quarter may overstate the gap.

historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-06
C16management claimmedium confidence
The finance chief said a little under half of Q2's $10M beat over the guide's midpoint was one-off traffic, mostly the World Cup, 75% of whose games fell in Q2.
against this

Live events recur every year in some form, so some one-off traffic is ordinary business rather than a windfall.

historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-06
C06facthigh confidence
Trailing twelve-month net retention was 117% in Q2 2026, up from 113% in Q1 and 104% a year earlier.
against this

The rise came with the top ten customers growing 48% (C04), so it may measure a few large accounts' traffic more than broad expansion.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-06
C34facthigh confidence
Gross margin was 63.3% in Q2 2026 against 54.5% a year earlier; stretching server lives from five to six years cut depreciation by $2.9M in the quarter.
against this

About 1.6 points of the rise is the accounting change, not the business.

historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-06
C41management claimmedium confidence
Q3 2026 guidance is $184M to $190M of revenue, about 18% growth at the midpoint, and $20M to $24M of adjusted operating profit.
against this

The guide falls from Q2's $183.3M plus one-offs to roughly flat, which the finance chief attributes to the World Cup.

forwardwritten 2026-10-06
What management did with the money

Insiders in 2026Q3: 0 purchases and 61 sales, from their Form 4 filings.

05

The price, and where we disagree

In short. Full. At about 6 times a year's sales, the price pays for the 2029 plan working, so little is left over if growth only half-happens.

Share price
$26.01
close,
Company value for each $1 of sales
6.4
rivals' middle 28.4 · its 6-year normal 4.5

The shares nearly tripled in a year, almost all of it buyers paying more for each dollar of sales rather than sales per share rising. The path was violent: they fell 18% in April when Anthropic launched a way to run AI agents without edge networks, and 38% after the May results.

In September management set 2029 targets of $1.1B to $1.3B of sales. The Q3 results on November 4 are the first test after the World Cup, and the first to split revenue by product.

The evidence under this - 6 claims
C32facthigh confidence
Over 252 sessions the share price rose 187%: revenue per share rose 11% and the multiple of revenue 158%.
historical · 252 sessions to 2026-10-05written 2026-10-06
C22facthigh confidence
Anthropic launched Claude Managed Agents, a hosted runtime for AI agents, on April 8, 2026, and Fastly closed April 10 at $23.07, about 18% lower than the prior session.
historical · April 2026written 2026-10-06
C33facthigh confidence
The shares fell 38% after Q1 2026 results on May 7, from $31.57 to $19.50, when network services grew 11%, and 12.9% after Q2 results on August 6.
historical · May and August 2026written 2026-10-06
C13management claimmedium confidence
At its September 2026 Investor Day management set 2029 targets of $1.1B to $1.3B of revenue, 67% to 71% gross margin, 20% to 22% operating margin and 12% to 15% free cash flow margin.
against this
  • The operating margin is adjusted and excludes share pay of about a fifth of revenue (C09).
  • The low end, 14% a year, is below the 18% guided for 2026.
forwardwritten 2026-10-06
C41management claimmedium confidence
Q3 2026 guidance is $184M to $190M of revenue, about 18% growth at the midpoint, and $20M to $24M of adjusted operating profit.
against this

The guide falls from Q2's $183.3M plus one-offs to roughly flat, which the finance chief attributes to the World Cup.

forwardwritten 2026-10-06
C47management claimmedium confidence
From Q3 2026 Fastly will report revenue by product suite beside the old three lines for two quarters, with the share of customers buying two and four or more suites.
forwardwritten 2026-10-06
The betSafe, little upside
If it works
1.2×
from today's value, valued like the cheaper of its two rivals
If it fails
keep 100%
of today's market value: the rest of the company and Security stalled at its lowest case, less debt
How we read the multiple

Fastly still loses money once share pay is counted, so the price is read against sales and against the cash the 2029 plan promises:

  1. The whole business is valued at about $4.13B, after cash and debt.
  2. That is about 6 times the last year's $687.2M of sales.
  3. If 2029 brings $1.2B of sales with about 13.5 cents of free cash per dollar, that is about $160M.
  4. Today's value is about 26 times that: the plan, three years out, is already paid for.

Against its own history. Dearer than its own past, because buyers now pay for growth that has only just returned after years of slow sales and losses.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C12inferencehigh confidence
At $26.01, 159.3M shares are worth about $4.14B; with $324M of notes and $337.5M of cash the business is valued at about $4.13B, about 6.0 times trailing revenue of $687.2M and 5.6 times the 2026 guide's midpoint.
derived159.3M shares on the 10-Q cover (S04) times the October 5 close of $26.01 (S20); notes at carrying value and cash and securities from the 10-Q (C10); trailing revenue from the filed quarters (S22); the guide's midpoint of $739M (C11).
against this
  • The vendor puts company value at $4.40B because it leaves out $247.7M of marketable securities.
  • If both notes convert, about 19.4M more shares are issued and the debt goes away, so the value per share is about the same.
current state · 2026-10-05written 2026-10-06
C13management claimmedium confidence
At its September 2026 Investor Day management set 2029 targets of $1.1B to $1.3B of revenue, 67% to 71% gross margin, 20% to 22% operating margin and 12% to 15% free cash flow margin.
against this
  • The operating margin is adjusted and excludes share pay of about a fifth of revenue (C09).
  • The low end, 14% a year, is below the 18% guided for 2026.
forwardwritten 2026-10-06
C11management claimmedium confidence
Management guides 2026 revenue of $732M to $746M, adjusted operating profit of $88M to $96M, free cash flow of $40M to $50M and network spending of 10% to 12% of revenue.
against this

Spending at 10% to 12% of revenue is double 2025's, with memory prices up, so free cash flow falls from 2025's $45.8M at the midpoint.

forwardwritten 2026-10-06
C09facthigh confidence
Share pay was about 20% of sales over the twelve months to June 2026, and weighted basic shares rose to 157.6M in Q2 from 145.8M a year earlier, about 8%.
historical · twelve months to June 2026written 2026-10-06
Priced against its rivals

The competitors its own annual report names, each confirmed against the rival's filing. Measured on company value for each $1 of sales, cheapest first:

TickerCompanycompany value for each $1 of sales
AKAMAkamai Technologies5.5×
FSLYFastly6.4×
NETCloudflare51.4×
AMZNAmazon.com not in the median3.7×
GOOGLAlphabet not in the median9.5×
MSFTMicrosoft not in the median12.3×

The middle of the other 2 is 28.4. Amazon.com, Inc., Alphabet Inc., Microsoft Corporation compete with it in one product line inside a much bigger company, so their price says little about this business and they are not counted in the middle. Fastly, Inc. is 2nd cheapest of 3.

Rivals' figures come from a data provider, so read the spread of the group rather than any single pair.

It sits between its two rivals, close to slow Akamai and far below fast Cloudflare, so the group says little about the right price.

Private or foreign rivals that cannot be priced: Bunny CDN, CDN77, Qwilt, CDNetworks, Thales (Imperva), Radware.

The bet: what it pays if it works

The bet is on security alone. Delivery and the rest are counted separately, at what Akamai is worth for each dollar of sales.

If security keeps growing near the top of management's range for two more years, the whole company ends up worth only a little more than today, so it is an expensive bet. If security stalls, delivery and the cash still cover nearly all of today's price, so the downside looks small, though Akamai's value is generous to a business still losing money.

Security revenue in two to three yearsSecurity books of today's size neededValued like its peersLike the cheapest
$300.00M (the big win)about 2 at 100% kept2.8×1.2×
$400.00Mabout 3 at 100% kept3.4×1.3×

To pay 2× (a Fair bet) it would need about $938.08M of Security revenue (about 6 security books of today's size); to pay 5× (a Cheap bet), about $3.34B of Security revenue (about 22 security books of today's size), at the same multiple.

Each row is Security alone, plus the rest of the company (Network services and compute) counted at about $3.63B.

The steps it has to take

  • Done Security passes $150M of trailing revenue
  • In progress Security and other pass a $200M annual run rate due 2026-12
  • Not started Product-suite revenue reported, with multi-product customer shares due 2027-02
  • Not started Security reaches about $300M of yearly revenue due 2028-12
The detail behind the label
Rating
Expensive
the big win's payoff against the 2× and 5× lines
At their midpoint
2.8×
the same success, valued between the two
Cheap bet at about
≈ $4.75
82% below the price (close, )
The option
2.2×
what Security is worth if it works, against what the price pays for it
The evidence under this - 5 claims
C42estimatemedium confidence
Holding network services and compute near 9% a year to 2028 gives them about $660M of revenue, worth about $3.6B at Akamai's 5.5 times sales.
derivedNetwork Services $477.8M in 2025 (C03), the 2026 guide of 9% to 11% (C15) and about 8% after; Other $21.2M growing toward $40M (C02); Akamai's 5.5 times from the cohort (S20).
against this
  • Network services grew 17% in Q2 on the largest customers' traffic; if that holds the core is larger.
  • At the market's 5% to 6% the core would be about $610M.
forwardwritten 2026-10-06
C43inferencemedium confidence
If security stalls at its trailing $150M, shareholders keep the delivery core, about $3.6B at Akamai's multiple, the stalled security book and about $14M of net cash.
derivedthe core of C42 at about $3.6B plus security held at $150M at 5.5 times, against $4.13B (C12); net cash from C10.
against this

Akamai's multiple may not hold for a smaller, faster but loss-making rival.

forwardwritten 2026-10-06
C49estimatemedium confidence
Holding security near 30% a year from its trailing $150M gives about $300M of security revenue by the end of 2028.
derivedSecurity revenue over the four quarters to June 2026: $34.0M, $35.4M, $38.8M and $41.7M, about $150M (S03); 30% a year for about 2.5 years, inside the 25% to 30% management named (C15) and below the 43% of Q2 (C02).
against this
  • Q2's 43% included cross-sell into the largest customers (C04), which may not repeat.
  • Cloudflare, Akamai and the clouds all sell the same firewall and bot defence (C21).
forwardwritten 2026-10-06
C02facthigh confidence
Revenue was $183.3M in Q2 2026, up 23% from $148.7M: Network Services $133.9M (+17%), Security $41.7M (+43%), Other $7.7M (+69%).
against this
  • A little under half of the quarter's $10M beat over the guide was one-off events such as the World Cup, by the finance chief's account (C16).
  • Growth came mostly from the ten largest customers: they grew 48% and everyone else 12% (C04).
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-06
C10facthigh confidence
At June 30, 2026 Fastly held $337.5M of cash and securities against $330M of convertible notes: $150M at 7.75% due 2028 converting at about $19.74, and $180M at 0% due 2030 converting at about $15.26, capped by a call at $23.04.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-06

Where we disagree with the market

The market believes

Growth is back for good, with security and AI traffic driving it: analysts have warmed sharply in a year.

We believe

Growth is real but narrow, delivery keeps getting cheaper, and the price already pays for the plan.

The headline 23% hides where it came from: outside the ten largest customers revenue grew 12%, and the number of customers paying over $100,000 a year has not grown in a year.

The case against us is that existing customers keep spending more, now $1.17 for each past dollar. If growth outside the largest customers returns toward 18%, we are too harsh.

What analysts say, and the evidence
Analysts positive
42%
of 12, 1 Oct
Four months earlier
36%
of 11, 1 Jun
The evidence under this - 6 claims
C31facthigh confidence
Twelve analysts rate it, 41.7% positive, against nine and 11.1% a year earlier; 14.8% of the float was sold short at the September 15 settlement.
current state · 2026-10-01written 2026-10-06
C32facthigh confidence
Over 252 sessions the share price rose 187%: revenue per share rose 11% and the multiple of revenue 158%.
historical · 252 sessions to 2026-10-05written 2026-10-06
C04facthigh confidence
In Q2 2026 the ten largest customers were 37% of revenue, against 31% a year earlier; their revenue grew 48% and everyone else's 12%.
against this

Management says the top ten also buy more security and that growth outside them was 17% in Q1, so one quarter may overstate the gap.

historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-06
C25facthigh confidence
Customers paying over $100,000 a year numbered 624 in Q2 2026, against 634 in Q1 and 622 a year earlier, and brought 94% of revenue.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-06
C06facthigh confidence
Trailing twelve-month net retention was 117% in Q2 2026, up from 113% in Q1 and 104% a year earlier.
against this

The rise came with the top ten customers growing 48% (C04), so it may measure a few large accounts' traffic more than broad expansion.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-06
C16management claimmedium confidence
The finance chief said a little under half of Q2's $10M beat over the guide's midpoint was one-off traffic, mostly the World Cup, 75% of whose games fell in Q2.
against this

Live events recur every year in some form, so some one-off traffic is ordinary business rather than a windfall.

historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-06
06

What could go wrong, and how we would know

The risks

  • One customer group TikTok's group brings 11% of revenue, and the ten largest customers 37%; if one moves traffic, a big piece of growth goes.
  • Prices keep falling Delivery prices fall every year, and Cloudflare, Akamai and the cloud companies sell the same service at larger scale.
  • New shares Share pay is a fifth of sales and both convertible notes are worth converting, adding about 12% more shares.
  • Insiders are selling Insiders sold 4.67M shares in a year and bought none; the finance chief sold outside a set plan near the high.
  • AI may route around it AI companies running agents on their own clouds could take that traffic off edge networks, the fear behind April's fall.
The evidence under this - 8 claims
C05facthigh confidence
A group of entities under common control of one customer, the TikTok group, was 11% of Q2 2026 revenue and 10% of 2025 revenue.
against this

No single legal entity reached 10%, and the group's US business was restructured into a new joint venture in January 2026 without a revenue loss so far.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-06
C04facthigh confidence
In Q2 2026 the ten largest customers were 37% of revenue, against 31% a year earlier; their revenue grew 48% and everyone else's 12%.
against this

Management says the top ten also buy more security and that growth outside them was 17% in Q1, so one quarter may overstate the gap.

historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-06
C14management claimmedium confidence
The finance chief said network prices fall by mid-single digits a year, partly volume tiers, while traffic grows in the low 20s percent.
against this

Akamai announced surcharges in April 2026 and the finance chief called pricing rational since rivals exited, so the erosion may slow.

current state · 2026-08-05written 2026-10-06
C18facthigh confidence
W3Techs reports Cloudflare's CDN on 25% of all websites in September 2026, up from 19.6% a year earlier.
current state · 2026-09-04written 2026-10-06
C09facthigh confidence
Share pay was about 20% of sales over the twelve months to June 2026, and weighted basic shares rose to 157.6M in Q2 from 145.8M a year earlier, about 8%.
historical · twelve months to June 2026written 2026-10-06
C10facthigh confidence
At June 30, 2026 Fastly held $337.5M of cash and securities against $330M of convertible notes: $150M at 7.75% due 2028 converting at about $19.74, and $180M at 0% due 2030 converting at about $15.26, capped by a call at $23.04.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-06
C26facthigh confidence
In the year to October 2026 insiders made no open-market purchases and 174 sales of 4.67M shares, 87% under prearranged plans; the finance chief sold 148,015 shares at $28.61 on August 18 outside a plan.
against this

Most sales were scheduled, and the founder's plan sales began in late 2025 at under $9.

historical · 2025-10-06 to 2026-10-06written 2026-10-06
C22facthigh confidence
Anthropic launched Claude Managed Agents, a hosted runtime for AI agents, on April 8, 2026, and Fastly closed April 10 at $23.07, about 18% lower than the prior session.
historical · April 2026written 2026-10-06
What we still do not know
  • How much of Fastly's traffic and revenue comes from AI agents and crawlers, and whether it pays as well as human traffic.
  • Whether TikTok's group plans to move traffic to its own network or a rival.
  • How much of last year's revenue customers keep before adding more; Fastly stopped reporting it.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C24management claimlow confidence
Management says AI-generated traffic on its network is growing about 6.5 times as fast as human traffic, without saying what share of traffic it is.
against this

No outside body confirms the ratio, and management does not split AI traffic out of revenue.

current state · 2026-08-05written 2026-10-06
C05facthigh confidence
A group of entities under common control of one customer, the TikTok group, was 11% of Q2 2026 revenue and 10% of 2025 revenue.
against this

No single legal entity reached 10%, and the group's US business was restructured into a new joint venture in January 2026 without a revenue loss so far.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-06
C06facthigh confidence
Trailing twelve-month net retention was 117% in Q2 2026, up from 113% in Q1 and 104% a year earlier.
against this

The rise came with the top ten customers growing 48% (C04), so it may measure a few large accounts' traffic more than broad expansion.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-06

What would change our view

  1. Unattractive→NeutralThe price falls on an unchanged business

    It needs all of:

    • ○The business is valued at 4.5 times a year's sales or less, down from about 6.about ≈$19.51 today, 25% below the last close
    • ○Existing customers still spend at least $1.10 for each dollar they spent a year earlier.checked at the next results, due by 4 Nov
  2. Unattractive→NeutralGrowth broadens beyond the largest customers

    It needs all of:

    • ○Revenue outside the ten largest customers grows 18% or more in a year.checked at the next results, due by 4 Nov
    • ○Customers paying over $100,000 a year reach 680, from 624.checked at the next results, due by 4 Nov
  3. Unattractive→AttractiveBroad growth at a lower price

    It needs all of:

    • ○The business is valued at 3.5 times a year's sales or less.about ≈$15.17 today, 42% below the last close
    • ○Revenue outside the ten largest customers grows 18% or more in a year.checked at the next results, due by 4 Nov
We would also be wrong if
  • Security grows above 30% a year while existing customers keep spending at least $1.15 per past dollar.

What is coming

  • 4 November 2026 Q3 2026 results: Whether revenue lands in the $184M to $190M guide after the World Cup, whether growth outside the top ten holds at 12% or better, and the first product-suite revenue split.
Every dated event ahead
  • 4 November 2026 Q3 2026 results: Whether revenue lands in the $184M to $190M guide after the World Cup, whether growth outside the top ten holds at 12% or better, and the first product-suite revenue split.
  • 15 February 2027 Q4 2026 results and 2027 guidance: Whether security and other pass a $200M run rate, and whether the 2027 guide implies growth near the 2029 path's 18% or nearer its 14% low end.
  • 30 April 2027 2027 proxy statement: Whether pay keeps free cash flow and committed revenue as targets, and whether insider ownership keeps falling.
Since we wrote this
Written
6 Oct
Price the thesis read
$26.01
5 Oct
  • 6 OctThesis writtenUnattractive, medium convictionGrowth is real but narrow and delivery is priced down every year, while dilution is heavy and the price already pays for the 2029 plan.

Also checked 1 time with nothing new to act on.

Sources 22

Where this came from

Sources - 22

Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.

  1. S01primarycompany filing2026-02-25
    Item 1 platform, usage contracts with monthly minimums, security subscriptions billed in advance; Competition naming twelve rivals in six classes; affiliated customer group at 10% of 2025 revenue; 1,140 employees; 2025 revenue by line; net loss of $121.7M
    backsC01C03C05C08C21C38C39
  2. S02primarycompany filing2026-08-05
    Q2 income statement, balance sheet and cash flow; revenue by line; non-GAAP reconciliation; share pay; free cash flow; net retention 117%; Q3 and 2026 guidance
    backsC02C06C08C09C11C34C36C40C41
  3. S03primarycompany filing2026-08-05
    revenue by line for eight quarters; top-ten share; large customer counts; RPO
    backsC02C04C25
  4. S04primarycompany filing2026-08-05
    the convertible notes' terms, cash and securities, 159.3M shares on the cover, the customer group at 11% of Q2 revenue, server useful-life change, the remediated material weakness
    backsC05C07C10C30C34
  5. S05primarytranscript2026-08-05
    Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP)
    data/cache/transcripts/FSLY-2026Q2.json
    top-ten growth of 48% against 12%; the 11% customer group; AI traffic growing about 6.5 times human traffic; mid-single-digit price erosion and low-20s traffic growth; the episodic share of the beat; memory prices
    Revenue from customers outside our top 10 grew 12% year over year.
    backsC04C05C06C07C11C14C16C24C25C35
  6. S06primarytranscript2026-05-06
    Q1 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP)
    data/cache/transcripts/FSLY-2026Q1.json
    the market growth rate; 2026 growth of 9% to 11% for network services and 25% to 30% for security; the goal of security and other passing a $200M run rate by late 2026; the 190 basis point one-off margin benefit
    we think network services is probably like 6% -- 5% to 6% market grower
    backsC15C33
  7. S07primarytranscript2026-02-11
    Q4 2025 earnings call transcript (FMP)
    data/cache/transcripts/FSLY-2025Q4.json
    the first year of adjusted profit; the initial 2026 guide of $700M to $720M; 3,092 customers; the TikTok US restructuring
    Our stellar Q4 results also capped off a strong 2025, marking our first profitable fiscal year.
    backsC40
  8. S08primarycompany filing2026-02-11
    2025 revenue by line, free cash flow of $45.8M, the 2026 guide
    backsC03C36
  9. S09primarycompany filing2026-04-22
    beneficial ownership at March 15, 2026; officer biographies; the 2025 bonus goals and 135.4% payout; the 2026 PSU metrics
    backsC27C28C29
  10. S10primarycompany filing2026-08-17
    the revolver raised to $100M to August 2029, with a springing maturity tied to the 2028 notes
    backsC10C44
  11. S11primarycompany filing2026-03-05
    Deloitte dismissed and KPMG appointed; the 2024 material weakness in revenue controls named as a reportable event, remediated
    backsC30
  12. S12primarytranscript2026-09-22
    the 2029 targets; the $22B addressable market at about 3% share; the new product-suite disclosure from Q3 2026; the chief executive's answer on Mythos
    Revenues of $1.1 billion to $1.3 billion. That implies 14% to 21% revenue CAGR from 2026- 2029.
    backsC13C37C47
  13. S13primarycompany filing2026-02-20
    Akamai Technologies Form 10-K for 2025 Akamai Technologies, Inc.
    Akamai's three offerings, security, cloud computing and delivery
    backsC19
  14. S14primarycompany filing2026-02-26
    Cloudflare's product list: content delivery, application security, Workers compute and corporate-network services
    backsC20
  15. S15primarycompany filing2025-11-25
    F5 naming Fastly, Akamai and Cloudflare as edge competitors
    backsC21
  16. S16primaryindustry data2026-10-06
    Cloudflare's share of sites with a known reverse proxy; Cloudflare's CDN at 25% of all websites, up from 19.6% a year earlier
    Cloudflare is used by 26.5% of all the websites, that is a reverse proxy service market share of 85.3%.
    backsC17C18
  17. S17primaryindustry data2026-10-06
    Fastly's share of sites and its best-known customers
    Fastly is used by 3.0% of all the websites whose reverse proxy service we know. This is 0.9% of all websites .
    backsC17
  18. S18primaryindustry data2025-04-15
    automated traffic at 51% of web traffic in 2024 and bad bots at 37% against 32%
    For the first time in a decade, automated traffic surpassed human activity, accounting for 51% of all web traffic
    backsC23
  19. S19secondarynews2026-04-13
    the April 8 launch of Claude Managed Agents and the moves in Fastly, Cloudflare and Akamai
    Fastly closed April 10 at $23.07, approximately 18 percent lower than the prior session
    backsC22
  20. S20secondaryvendor data2026-10-06
    Research pack (FMP market tier, FINRA short interest), frozen
    content/FSLY/research-pack.json
    the October 5 close of $26.01, the 252-session price split, analyst series, short interest, cohort multiples, headcount
    backsC22C31C32C33C38
  21. S21primarycompany filing2026-09-30
    every open-market insider sale with its Rule 10b5-1 flag; no purchases
    backsC26
  22. S22primarycompany filing2026-10-06
    Filed statements, numbers card (financials.json from SEC XBRL)
    content/FSLY/financials.json
    five years and the trailing year of revenue, margins, cost shares, share pay, capital spending, cash flow and diluted shares
    backsC03C09C32C35C46
Rendered from content/FSLY/thesis.json · thesis reviewed 2026-10-06. This page explains a company; it does not say what to pay, when to buy or how much.