← All thesesAKAMNeutralMedium convictionMonday 26 October 2026עברית

Akamai Technologies

A Cambridge, Massachusetts company whose network protects and speeds up big companies' websites, and which now rents computing to AI companies.

Our viewNeutral Medium conviction
The scores
The profile · 1-4
Growth2/4 ↑

Revenue grew 5% in 2025 and Q2 2026; security grows about 10% and delivery shrinks, and the contracted growth starts in 2027.

Business quality3/4 →

A wide network with no customer above 10% and security growing, but delivery shrinks on price and the new business is capital-heavy.

Financial position2/4 ↓

About $3.0B of net debt in convertibles, and the build-out needs more money than cash and the revolver hold during 2027.

Execution record3/4 →

Built security into over half of revenue and has met its guides, but delivery has shrunk for years and the large build-out is untested.

Per share capture2/4 ↓

Buybacks cut shares 11% since 2021 but paused; stock pay about equals free cash flow, and the warrant and 2033 notes sit near the price.

Potential3/4 ↑

$14.4B of signed multi-year contracts in a cloud market growing 43%, at a return that may barely clear the cost of capital.

Risk profile2/4 ↓

One customer will dominate the computing contracts and may end a plan after an outage, while the build-out leans on debt.

Valuation3/4 ↑

About 3.8 times trailing sales; the price needs about 11.6% yearly growth for ten years, near management's 2027 target.

Evidence quality3/4 →

Filed figures carry the established business and the contract's terms, but the cloud business's profit is undisclosed and its returns rest on management's ranges.

The bet · 2-3 years
Priced for success1.0×

If it works 1.0× · if it fails you keep about 72%.

The Verdict

We rate Akamai neutral. The business is mixed: its security network is steady and profitable, but delivery shrinks and the new business of renting computing to AI companies needs heavy spending before it pays. The price is fair. At about 3.8 times sales, buyers need revenue to grow about 12% a year for ten years, close to what management targets for 2027. As a bet on the AI contracts it is fragile: even if they all run as planned, the company is worth about what it is today, and if they fail shareholders keep less. The view hinges on whether those contracts earn more than they cost.

The long caseIf AI companies keep running short of computing, the sites Akamai can fill with servers stay rented for years.

The evidence under this - 6 claims
C04facthigh confidence
Q2 2026 revenue was $1,099.7M, up 5%: security $604.4M, up 10%; delivery and other cloud applications $395.9M, down 6%; cloud infrastructure services $99.3M, up 39%.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-26
C22estimatemedium confidence
At $93.53 the 143.7M shares are worth about $13.4B and the company about $16.5B, 3.8 times trailing revenue of $4,323M; at a 9% return and a sale at 3 times revenue in ten years, revenue must grow about 11.6% a year.
against this
  • A sale at 4 times revenue cuts the needed growth to about 8.5% a year.
  • The 2033 notes and the warrant can add shares, so the value per share is slightly overstated.
current state · 2026-10-23written 2026-10-26
C07management claimmedium confidence
Before the September contract, management expected total revenue growth to accelerate to the low teens in 2027.
against this
  • Growth was 5% in Q2 2026, so low teens needs about $500M of new 2027 revenue, most of it from contracts with no revenue yet.
  • In May the same target read double digits; it was raised as contracts were signed, not as revenue arrived.
forwardwritten 2026-10-26
C12management claimmedium confidence
Across this year's large contracts, about $14.4B in all, management expects about $2.2B of annual revenue at full ramp from about 95MW to 105MW of power, roughly $22M a year per megawatt.
against this

Most of the $14.4B is one customer, Anthropic, so the total is less diversified than four contracts suggest.

forwardwritten 2026-10-26
C11management claimmedium confidence
Management plans about $5.5B of capital spending for the September contract: about $1.7B in Q4 2026, $3.1B in 2027 and $0.7B in 2028, depreciated over seven years with no refresh required.
against this

The 10-K warns that the largest clouds have priority access to servers, memory, space and power, so the cost could rise.

forwardwritten 2026-10-26
C40inferencelow confidence
On management's own margin range, the September contract returns roughly 10% a year before tax on its $5.5B of servers: about $1.7B of revenue less colocation and seven-year depreciation leaves about $0.4B to $0.5B.
derivedC10 and C11 give $1.7B a year and $5.5B over seven years, about $0.79B of depreciation; C41 puts large-deal operating margins at the low twenties to low thirties, $0.37B to $0.54B; over $5.5B that is about 7% to 10%, more on capital as it depreciates.
against this
  • Management says the servers can run beyond seven years, so a renewal would earn far more on capital already paid for.
  • The optional $9B uses some of the same sites, so the return on the first $5.5B could rise.
forwardwritten 2026-10-26
01

The company

Akamai runs servers in about 700 cities that sit between a big company's website or app and its users. Each visitor connects to a nearby Akamai server, which blocks attacks and bad bots, keeps copies of pages and video nearby, and passes on the rest.

It also rents out computing, ordinary processors and AI chips, in those places. In 2026 that grew into large contracts: Anthropic, the AI company, will rent servers Akamai is buying for it. The alternative is your own network, or Amazon, Microsoft or Google.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C01facthigh confidence
Akamai sells security, cloud computing and content delivery from a network of over 4,300 points of presence in more than 130 countries and about 700 cities, with about 1,200 network partners. It reports one segment.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-26
C08facthigh confidence
On 18 September 2026 Anthropic committed about $11.6B over two seven-year Project Plans under its master agreement with Akamai of May 2026, subject to Akamai meeting delivery and service availability requirements.
current state · 2026-09-24written 2026-10-26
C11management claimmedium confidence
Management plans about $5.5B of capital spending for the September contract: about $1.7B in Q4 2026, $3.1B in 2027 and $0.7B in 2028, depreciated over seven years with no refresh required.
against this

The 10-K warns that the largest clouds have priority access to servers, memory, space and power, so the cost could rise.

forwardwritten 2026-10-26
C31facthigh confidence
Akamai's 10-K says delivery revenue keeps falling on price pressure and customers building their own, and that the largest clouds have priority access to servers, memory, colocation and power.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-26

How it makes money

Customers sign contracts, usually for several years, and pay for the security, traffic and computing they use. In Q2 2026 security brought in $604.4M, 55% of revenue; delivery and older cloud tools $395.9M; and rented computing $99.3M, the fastest growing at 39%. No customer is a tenth of revenue. The large AI contracts work differently: the customer commits to pay for capacity for seven years once Akamai delivers it.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C04facthigh confidence
Q2 2026 revenue was $1,099.7M, up 5%: security $604.4M, up 10%; delivery and other cloud applications $395.9M, down 6%; cloud infrastructure services $99.3M, up 39%.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-26
C02facthigh confidence
No customer was 10% or more of Akamai's revenue in 2023, 2024 or 2025.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-26
C08facthigh confidence
On 18 September 2026 Anthropic committed about $11.6B over two seven-year Project Plans under its master agreement with Akamai of May 2026, subject to Akamai meeting delivery and service availability requirements.
current state · 2026-09-24written 2026-10-26
C10management claimmedium confidence
Management expects no revenue from the September contract in 2026, $150M to $300M in 2027 from the second half, and about $1.7B a year once fully ramped by the end of 2028, flat after that on take-or-pay terms.
against this
  • A new site takes 60 to 90 days to reach full revenue, management says, so any delay in power or servers pushes the ramp right.
  • The revenue is net of the warrant's cost, which management puts at a little over $150M.
forwardwritten 2026-10-26
Where the money comes from, stream by stream
StreamShare of sales (Q2 2026)How it earns it
Security55%Web, API and bot protection, attack absorption, zero trust access and the LayerX browser product, mostly on multi-year contracts.
Delivery and other cloud applications36%Content and video delivery and older cloud applications, priced on traffic and falling about 6% a year.
Cloud infrastructure services9%Rented computing and AI chips, including Linode's cloud and the large multi-year AI contracts.

Who runs it

Tom Leighton, a co-founder, is chief executive and takes a salary of $1; he holds about 1.9% of the shares, and all directors and officers about 2.3%. Edward McGowan is finance chief and Dan Hesse chairs the board. Bonuses are paid in shares and reward revenue and adjusted profit; nothing rewards cash flow or the return on money spent, which matters now the company is spending billions on servers. Insiders sold over the year and bought nothing.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C35facthigh confidence
Chief executive Tom Leighton, a co-founder, is paid a $1 salary and held 2,759,456 shares, 1.9%; directors and officers held 2.3%, Vanguard 12.7% and BlackRock 6.9%.
current state · 2026-03-16written 2026-10-26
C36facthigh confidence
The annual bonus pays in shares on currency-adjusted revenue and adjusted operating income, 149.2% of target for 2025; performance shares pay on revenue and adjusted earnings per share, and a slice on returns against the S&P 500.
historical · FY2025written 2026-10-26
C25facthigh confidence
Insiders made 34 open-market sales of 168,023 shares in the year to October 2026 and no purchases; 26 were under 10b5-1 plans and 8, 69,404 shares, discretionary.
current state · 2026-10-26written 2026-10-26
02

Why it wins, and who could beat it

Why customers come back

Akamai's edge is size. It has servers in more than 130 countries, joined to about 1,200 other networks, so it can carry and check a huge site's traffic close to its users, and seeing that much traffic sharpens its view of attacks. A US data breach costs about $10.22M on average, so big buyers value a shield that works.

It is not the most common shield: an outside survey finds Akamai on 1.9% of websites whose shield it can identify. Its customers are fewer and much bigger.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C01facthigh confidence
Akamai sells security, cloud computing and content delivery from a network of over 4,300 points of presence in more than 130 countries and about 700 cities, with about 1,200 network partners. It reports one segment.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-26
C02facthigh confidence
No customer was 10% or more of Akamai's revenue in 2023, 2024 or 2025.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-26
C27factmedium confidence
IBM's 2025 study puts the average US data breach at a record $10.22M.
historical · 2025written 2026-10-26
C26factmedium confidence
W3Techs finds Akamai in front of 1.9% of websites whose reverse proxy it can identify and 0.6% of all websites, against Cloudflare's 85.5% and 26.8%.
current state · 2026-10-26written 2026-10-26

The threat

Cloudflare sells the same security and delivery from one network, grows far faster and sits in front of most identifiable websites. Fastly competes in delivery and names Akamai as a rival. In renting computing, Amazon, Google and Microsoft are far larger, and Akamai's own annual report warns they get first call on servers, memory, space and power. Anthropic still buys most of its computing from Amazon.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C32facthigh confidence
Cloudflare and Fastly sell delivery, web security and edge computing to the same web-facing companies, and Fastly's 10-K names Akamai twice among its rivals.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-26
C26factmedium confidence
W3Techs finds Akamai in front of 1.9% of websites whose reverse proxy it can identify and 0.6% of all websites, against Cloudflare's 85.5% and 26.8%.
current state · 2026-10-26written 2026-10-26
C31facthigh confidence
Akamai's 10-K says delivery revenue keeps falling on price pressure and customers building their own, and that the largest clouds have priority access to servers, memory, colocation and power.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-26
C33facthigh confidence
CoreWeave's 10-K names Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Oracle as the general clouds it competes with for AI computing, several of them also its customers.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-26
C29factmedium confidence
Anthropic says its run-rate revenue passed $30B in April 2026 from about $9B at the end of 2025, and that Amazon remains its primary cloud.
current state · 2026-04-06written 2026-10-26

The rivals: NET, FSLY, AMZN, GOOGL, MSFT, CRWV.

Who else does this, rival by rival
TickerRivalWhere it competesHow far alongPriced against it
NETCloudflarePriced against it: YesSecurity, delivery and other cloud applicationsOn saleYes
FSLYFastlyPriced against it: YesSecurity, delivery and other cloud applicationsOn saleYes
AMZN · GOOGL · MSFTAmazon Web Services, Google Cloud and Microsoft AzurePriced against it: One segment onlyCloud infrastructure servicesOn saleOne segment only
CRWVCoreWeave and the specialist AI cloudsPriced against it: One segment onlyCloud infrastructure servicesOn saleOne segment only
03

How big it could get

How big this could get

Companies spent $143B renting cloud computing in Q2 2026, 43% more than a year before, and the AI part grew 165%. Nobody publishes how much of that runs in many small sites, the kind Akamai builds, so its own pond cannot be measured exactly. Against the whole market, Akamai's contracts, about $2.2B a year once running, are well under 1%.

The evidence under this - 2 claims
C28factmedium confidence
Synergy measured Q2 2026 cloud infrastructure spending at $143B, up 43%, with AI-specific cloud services up 165%, and listed Anthropic among the smaller cloud providers it singles out for growth.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-26
C12management claimmedium confidence
Across this year's large contracts, about $14.4B in all, management expects about $2.2B of annual revenue at full ramp from about 95MW to 105MW of power, roughly $22M a year per megawatt.
against this

Most of the $14.4B is one customer, Anthropic, so the total is less diversified than four contracts suggest.

forwardwritten 2026-10-26

Who has signed

Four companies signed this year: about $200M over four years, $1.8B over seven, more than $600M over four, and Anthropic's $11.6B over seven, about $1.7B a year once running. Anthropic must pay once Akamai delivers, but may end each plan after a material outage.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C12management claimmedium confidence
Across this year's large contracts, about $14.4B in all, management expects about $2.2B of annual revenue at full ramp from about 95MW to 105MW of power, roughly $22M a year per megawatt.
against this

Most of the $14.4B is one customer, Anthropic, so the total is less diversified than four contracts suggest.

forwardwritten 2026-10-26
C08facthigh confidence
On 18 September 2026 Anthropic committed about $11.6B over two seven-year Project Plans under its master agreement with Akamai of May 2026, subject to Akamai meeting delivery and service availability requirements.
current state · 2026-09-24written 2026-10-26
C10management claimmedium confidence
Management expects no revenue from the September contract in 2026, $150M to $300M in 2027 from the second half, and about $1.7B a year once fully ramped by the end of 2028, flat after that on take-or-pay terms.
against this
  • A new site takes 60 to 90 days to reach full revenue, management says, so any delay in power or servers pushes the ramp right.
  • The revenue is net of the warrant's cost, which management puts at a little over $150M.
forwardwritten 2026-10-26
C09facthigh confidence
Anthropic may end the master agreement on Akamai's material uncured breach, and each Project Plan on notice of a material outage, subject to conditions.
current state · 2026-09-24written 2026-10-26
Where the growth is coming from, business by business

Where the growth is coming from

BusinessShare of revenueGrowth: last quarterLast half-yearLast yearShare in 3 years at its half-year rate
Reportable Segment100%+5.4%+5.6%-100%
Whole company100%+5.4%+5.6%-100%

On the filed split through 2026-06-30, if each business keeps its last half-year's growth, the company grows about 6% next year and 6% in year 3, against 5.9% over the last twelve months. A scenario, not a forecast: no business holds its rate.

04

The results

The numbers

Is it growing?Slow

Sales grew 5.9% over the twelve months to Jun 2026, about the same pace as the 5.4% in the year to Dec 2025.

Dec 2021: $3.46BDec 2022: $3.62BDec 2023: $3.81BDec 2024: $3.99BDec 2025: $4.21B12 mo to Jun 2026: $4.32B$3.46B$4.32B
Is it profitable?Healthy

Operating margin is 11%, down from 17% in the year to Dec 2023.

Dec 2021: 23%Dec 2022: 19%Dec 2023: 17%Dec 2024: 13%Dec 2025: 13%12 mo to Jun 2026: 11%23%11%
Does growth pay off?Costly

Running costs take 47¢ of each sales dollar, up from 41¢ in the year to Dec 2021.

Dec 2021: 41¢Dec 2022: 43¢Dec 2023: 44¢Dec 2024: 46¢Dec 2025: 45¢12 mo to Jun 2026: 47¢41¢47¢
Does it earn good returns?Decent

Shareholders' money earned 8.9% a year, down from 15% in the year to Dec 2021.

Dec 2021: 15%Dec 2022: 12%Dec 2023: 12%Dec 2024: 11%Dec 2025: 9.2%12 mo to Jun 2026: 8.9%15%8.9%
Is it making cash?Strong

It turned 22% of sales into free cash, $956M over the last twelve months.

Dec 2021: $1.08BDec 2022: $1.03BDec 2023: $891MDec 2024: $1.13BDec 2025: $1.01B12 mo to Jun 2026: $956M$1.08B$956M
How steady is it?Steady

Yearly sales growth has ranged from +4.5% to +8.2% over the last 5 years.

Dec 2021: +8.2%Dec 2022: +4.5%Dec 2023: +5.4%Dec 2024: +4.7%Dec 2025: +5.4%+8.2%+5.4%
Are shares being diluted?Shrinking

The share count fell 7.3% in 4.5 years, and pay in shares costs 12% of sales.

Dec 2021: 166MDec 2022: 160MDec 2023: 155MDec 2024: 154MDec 2025: 147M12 mo to Jun 2026: 154M166M154M
All the numbers

Filed figures from the company's 10-K and 10-Q, read 2026-10-26. Fiscal years end in December.

Dec 2021Dec 2022Dec 2023Dec 2024Dec 202512 mo to Jun 2026
Size and growth
Sales$3.46B$3.62B$3.81B$3.99B$4.21B$4.32B
Sales growth+8.2%+4.5%+5.4%+4.7%+5.4%+5.9%
Profit
Gross margin63%62%60%59%59%57%
Operating margin23%19%17%13%13%11%
Net margin19%14%14%13%11%9.5%
What growth costs, per sales dollar
Research and development9.7%11%11%12%12%13%
Sales and marketing13%14%14%14%14%14%
General and admin16%16%16%16%16%16%
Pay in shares5.9%6.0%8.6%9.9%11%12%
Capital spending9.5%6.7%12%9.8%12%11%
Cash
Cash from operations$1.40B$1.27B$1.35B$1.52B$1.52B$1.45B
Free cash flow$1.08B$1.03B$891M$1.13B$1.01B$956M
Balance sheet
Cash and short-term investments$1.08B$1.11B$864M$1.60B$1.19B$3.36B
Returns and shares
Return on capital16%12%12%9.7%8.6%-
Shares (diluted)166M160M155M154M147M154M

What growth costs

Growth has cost margin. The official operating margin fell from 18.7% in 2022 to 10.5% over the last year, as pay in shares doubled to 11.8% of revenue and the costs of space, power and servers for rented computing arrived before its revenue.

The evidence under this - 2 claims
C38estimatehigh confidence
GAAP operating margin fell from 18.7% in 2022 to 13.5% in 2025 and 10.5% over the four quarters to June 2026, while stock pay rose from 6.0% to 11.8% of revenue.
against this

Adjusted operating margin has held near 25% to 30%, so part of the fall is amortisation and stock pay rather than the cash business.

historical · FY2022 to TTM 2026-06-30written 2026-10-26
C15facthigh confidence
In the first half of 2026 capital spending rose to $552.9M from $440.1M and cash from operations fell to $638.8M from $710.3M; Q2 capital spending was $346.5M, 32% of revenue.
historical · H1 2026written 2026-10-26

The last report (6 Aug)

Quarter ended June 2026, filed figures.

5%
Sales growth
against the same quarter a year earlier
2.4%
Growth from the quarter before
against -1.9% the quarter before that
7¢
Operating profit
per dollar of sales

In Q2 2026 revenue grew 5% to $1.10B. Security grew 10% to $604.4M, delivery and older tools fell 6%, and rented computing rose 39% to $99.3M. CrowdStrike, a security company, switched its own web security to Akamai.

The cost of growth showed. The official operating profit was 7% of revenue, against 25% before pay in shares and other adjustments, and spending on servers reached 32% of revenue. Akamai stopped buying back shares to keep cash for the computing build-out.

What it did to the thesisIt showed the security business holding up and rented computing growing fast, which supports the business case. It also showed the cost: profit fell as spending ran ahead of revenue and buybacks stopped, leaving open what our view turns on, whether the contracts earn their cost.

The quarter in detail

Sales growth from the previous quarter, filed figures.

Earnings per share $1.59 against $1.57 expected; $0.52 as filed, the gap being what the company adds back.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C04facthigh confidence
Q2 2026 revenue was $1,099.7M, up 5%: security $604.4M, up 10%; delivery and other cloud applications $395.9M, down 6%; cloud infrastructure services $99.3M, up 39%.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-26
C45management claimmedium confidence
Management says all its GPU capacity is sold out, that CrowdStrike switched to Akamai for web security and delivery in Q2 2026, and that security revenue grew 10%.
against this

Security growth of 10% includes acquisitions; the guide for the year is only high single digits (C06).

current state · 2026-08-06written 2026-10-26
C39facthigh confidence
Q2 2026 GAAP operating income was $80.3M, 7% of revenue, against an adjusted 25%; diluted earnings per share were $0.52 GAAP and $1.59 adjusted.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-26
C15facthigh confidence
In the first half of 2026 capital spending rose to $552.9M from $440.1M and cash from operations fell to $638.8M from $710.3M; Q2 capital spending was $346.5M, 32% of revenue.
historical · H1 2026written 2026-10-26
C19facthigh confidence
Akamai bought back about $616M of shares in the first half of 2026, $410M of it in Q2 at an average $134.54, then paused buybacks to fund cloud infrastructure; diluted shares fell from 165.8M in 2021 to 147.0M in 2025.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-26
What management did with the money

Akamai spent about $616M buying back shares in the first half of 2026, mostly at prices well above today's, then stopped. In May it borrowed $3.5B through bonds that can turn into shares, to pay for servers, and in July it bought LayerX, a browser security company, for about $205M.

Insiders in 2026Q3: 1 purchases and 4 sales, from their Form 4 filings.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C19facthigh confidence
Akamai bought back about $616M of shares in the first half of 2026, $410M of it in Q2 at an average $134.54, then paused buybacks to fund cloud infrastructure; diluted shares fell from 165.8M in 2021 to 147.0M in 2025.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-26
C17facthigh confidence
In May 2026 Akamai sold $1.75B of zero-interest 2030 notes and $1.75B of 2032 notes, converting at $201.41 and $190.81, spent about $350M of the proceeds buying back 2,476,298 shares and kept the rest for cloud infrastructure spending.
historical · May 2026written 2026-10-26
C37facthigh confidence
Akamai bought LayerX, a browser security company, on 2 July 2026 for about $205M.
historical · July 2026written 2026-10-26
05

The price, and where we disagree

In short. Fair. The price asks for growth a little above today's, close to management's 2027 target, and pays little for the AI contracts, whose returns are unproven.

Share price
$93.53
close,
Company value for each $1 of sales
5.1
rivals' middle 27.1 · its 6-year normal 5.2

The shares jumped by about a quarter in one day in May on the first large AI contract, and have since fallen below where they stood before it, even though the signed contracts grew to $14.4B. No filing or release explains the October fall.

The next test is close: third-quarter results on 5 November will show how fast rented computing is growing, what the servers cost and how 2027 will be paid for.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C44facthigh confidence
The shares rose from $116.69 on 7 May 2026 to $147.71 on 8 May, the day after the $1.8B contract, and from $110.41 to $113.94 on 25 September, the day after the $11.6B one.
historical · May to September 2026written 2026-10-26
C21facthigh confidence
Akamai closed at $93.53 on 23 October 2026, 43% below its $165.45 high of 13 May; over 252 sessions it rose 25.2% while sales per share rose 0.1%, and it fell 17.9% in 20 sessions.
current state · 2026-10-23written 2026-10-26
C12management claimmedium confidence
Across this year's large contracts, about $14.4B in all, management expects about $2.2B of annual revenue at full ramp from about 95MW to 105MW of power, roughly $22M a year per megawatt.
against this

Most of the $14.4B is one customer, Anthropic, so the total is less diversified than four contracts suggest.

forwardwritten 2026-10-26
C46management claimmedium confidence
Management guides Q3 2026 revenue to $1,105M to $1,130M, adjusted earnings per share to $1.60 to $1.80 and capital spending to $475M to $525M.
against this

Q2 capital spending came in below its guide because orders slipped past the quarter's end, which pushes spending into Q3.

forwardwritten 2026-10-26
C43estimatelow confidence
On the company's own figures cash and securities fall from $4.6B at June 2026 to roughly $2.4B by December and below zero during 2027 once the 2027 notes are repaid, before any new financing.
against this

Management says it has the $1.0B revolver and could raise more capital, and the 2027 notes may convert rather than be repaid in full if the price passes $116.18.

forwardwritten 2026-10-26
The betPriced for success
If it works
1.0×
from today's value, at the stated multiple
If it fails
keep 72%
of today's market value: the rest of the company, less its debt
How we read the multiple

Netting all its cash and investments against its debt, the company costs about $16.5B; the tile nets cash alone. What has to be true:

1. Revenue over the last year was $4.32B, so the price is about 3.8 times sales. 2. A buyer wanting 9% a year, a common yardstick, needs revenue near $13.0B in ten years, selling then at 3 times sales. 3. That is growth of about 11.6% a year for a decade, against 5% today.

Management targets low-teens growth in 2027 from the AI contracts.

Against its own history. The price per dollar of sales sits near its own normal of recent years, so buyers pay about what they always have, with little extra for the AI contracts.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C22estimatemedium confidence
At $93.53 the 143.7M shares are worth about $13.4B and the company about $16.5B, 3.8 times trailing revenue of $4,323M; at a 9% return and a sale at 3 times revenue in ten years, revenue must grow about 11.6% a year.
against this
  • A sale at 4 times revenue cuts the needed growth to about 8.5% a year.
  • The 2033 notes and the warrant can add shares, so the value per share is slightly overstated.
current state · 2026-10-23written 2026-10-26
C07management claimmedium confidence
Before the September contract, management expected total revenue growth to accelerate to the low teens in 2027.
against this
  • Growth was 5% in Q2 2026, so low teens needs about $500M of new 2027 revenue, most of it from contracts with no revenue yet.
  • In May the same target read double digits; it was raised as contracts were signed, not as revenue arrived.
forwardwritten 2026-10-26
C42management claimmedium confidence
The September contract is all CPU, and management says it earns about a third of a dollar of yearly revenue per dollar of capital, against half a dollar to a dollar on most of its deals.
against this

Management argues the seven-year term and CPU's power efficiency make up for the lower revenue per dollar.

forwardwritten 2026-10-26
C11management claimmedium confidence
Management plans about $5.5B of capital spending for the September contract: about $1.7B in Q4 2026, $3.1B in 2027 and $0.7B in 2028, depreciated over seven years with no refresh required.
against this

The 10-K warns that the largest clouds have priority access to servers, memory, space and power, so the cost could rise.

forwardwritten 2026-10-26
C14estimatehigh confidence
Over the four quarters to June 2026 cash from operations was about $1,447M, capital spending about $931M and stock pay about $510M, so free cash flow of about $516M barely covered stock pay.
against this

Capital spending is for growth that has revenue contracted behind it, so free cash flow understates the cash the existing business makes.

historical · TTM to 2026-06-30written 2026-10-26
Priced against its rivals

The competitors its own annual report names, each confirmed against the rival's filing. Measured on company value for each $1 of sales, cheapest first:

TickerCompanycompany value for each $1 of sales
AKAMAkamai Technologies5.1×
FSLYFastly6.5×
NETCloudflare47.8×

The middle of the other 2 is 27.1. Akamai Technologies, Inc. is cheapest of 3.

Rivals' figures come from a data provider, so read the spread of the group rather than any single pair.

The gap to its two filed rivals is Akamai's own: both grow several times faster and lose money, so the low price reflects slower growth, not a cheap group.

The bet: what it pays if it works

The bet is on Akamai's new business of renting computing to AI companies. The contracts are signed, mostly with Anthropic, but they pay only once Akamai has bought and installed the servers, most of them in 2027.

Valuing the rest of Akamai at a fair price leaves a large slice of today's price for this business. Even if every contract runs as planned, it is worth less than that slice: an expensive bet. If it fails, shareholders keep the established network, worth most but not all of today's price.

Cloud infrastructure services revenue in two to three yearsMegawatts neededAt the stated multiple
$1.20Babout 55 at 100% kept0.9×
$2.20B (the big win)about 100 at 100% kept1.0×
$3.50Babout 159 at 100% kept1.1×

To pay 2× (a Fair bet) it would need about $13.47B of Cloud infrastructure services revenue (about 612 megawatts); to pay 5× (a Cheap bet), about $46.41B of Cloud infrastructure services revenue (about 2.1K megawatts), at the same multiple.

Each row is Cloud infrastructure services alone, plus the rest of the company (Security, delivery and other cloud applications) counted at about $12.72B.

The steps it has to take

  • Done $14.4B of large cloud infrastructure contracts signed, $11.6B with Anthropic
  • Done $3.5B of convertible notes raised for the build-out
  • In progress About $1.7B spent on servers for the September contract due 2026-12-31
  • Not started Financing for the 2027 build-out named due 2027-02-28
  • Not started First revenue from the September contract due 2027-09-30
  • Not started The contracts reach about $2.2B a year due 2028-12-31
The detail behind the label
Rating
Expensive
the big win's payoff against the 2× and 5× lines
Cheap bet at about
≈ $1.25
99% below the price (close, )
The option
0.9×
what Cloud infrastructure services is worth if it works, against what the price pays for it
The evidence under this - 6 claims
C12management claimmedium confidence
Across this year's large contracts, about $14.4B in all, management expects about $2.2B of annual revenue at full ramp from about 95MW to 105MW of power, roughly $22M a year per megawatt.
against this

Most of the $14.4B is one customer, Anthropic, so the total is less diversified than four contracts suggest.

forwardwritten 2026-10-26
C08facthigh confidence
On 18 September 2026 Anthropic committed about $11.6B over two seven-year Project Plans under its master agreement with Akamai of May 2026, subject to Akamai meeting delivery and service availability requirements.
current state · 2026-09-24written 2026-10-26
C10management claimmedium confidence
Management expects no revenue from the September contract in 2026, $150M to $300M in 2027 from the second half, and about $1.7B a year once fully ramped by the end of 2028, flat after that on take-or-pay terms.
against this
  • A new site takes 60 to 90 days to reach full revenue, management says, so any delay in power or servers pushes the ramp right.
  • The revenue is net of the warrant's cost, which management puts at a little over $150M.
forwardwritten 2026-10-26
C11management claimmedium confidence
Management plans about $5.5B of capital spending for the September contract: about $1.7B in Q4 2026, $3.1B in 2027 and $0.7B in 2028, depreciated over seven years with no refresh required.
against this

The 10-K warns that the largest clouds have priority access to servers, memory, space and power, so the cost could rise.

forwardwritten 2026-10-26
C22estimatemedium confidence
At $93.53 the 143.7M shares are worth about $13.4B and the company about $16.5B, 3.8 times trailing revenue of $4,323M; at a 9% return and a sale at 3 times revenue in ten years, revenue must grow about 11.6% a year.
against this
  • A sale at 4 times revenue cuts the needed growth to about 8.5% a year.
  • The 2033 notes and the warrant can add shares, so the value per share is slightly overstated.
current state · 2026-10-23written 2026-10-26
C16facthigh confidence
At 30 June 2026 Akamai held $4,616.3M of cash and securities against $7,640.0M of convertible notes at face value, maturing from 2027 to 2033, plus an undrawn $1.0B revolving credit line.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-26

Where we disagree with the market

The market believes

The AI contracts turn Akamai into a faster-growing company, worth more than a slow security and delivery business.

We believe

The contracts will add revenue, but at about a third of a dollar a year per dollar of servers they may barely earn their cost.

The market counts the contracted revenue. We count what it costs: about $5.5B of servers before the big contract pays, a cash plan that runs short in 2027 without new money, and one customer who can end a plan after a material outage.

The evidence against us is real: the contracts are take-or-pay, management says their margins are healthy, and the shares already fell below where they stood before the first one.

What analysts say, and the evidence
Analysts positive
64%
of 25, 1 Oct
Four months earlier
56%
of 27, 1 Jun
The evidence under this - 9 claims
C12management claimmedium confidence
Across this year's large contracts, about $14.4B in all, management expects about $2.2B of annual revenue at full ramp from about 95MW to 105MW of power, roughly $22M a year per megawatt.
against this

Most of the $14.4B is one customer, Anthropic, so the total is less diversified than four contracts suggest.

forwardwritten 2026-10-26
C11management claimmedium confidence
Management plans about $5.5B of capital spending for the September contract: about $1.7B in Q4 2026, $3.1B in 2027 and $0.7B in 2028, depreciated over seven years with no refresh required.
against this

The 10-K warns that the largest clouds have priority access to servers, memory, space and power, so the cost could rise.

forwardwritten 2026-10-26
C43estimatelow confidence
On the company's own figures cash and securities fall from $4.6B at June 2026 to roughly $2.4B by December and below zero during 2027 once the 2027 notes are repaid, before any new financing.
against this

Management says it has the $1.0B revolver and could raise more capital, and the 2027 notes may convert rather than be repaid in full if the price passes $116.18.

forwardwritten 2026-10-26
C09facthigh confidence
Anthropic may end the master agreement on Akamai's material uncured breach, and each Project Plan on notice of a material outage, subject to conditions.
current state · 2026-09-24written 2026-10-26
C10management claimmedium confidence
Management expects no revenue from the September contract in 2026, $150M to $300M in 2027 from the second half, and about $1.7B a year once fully ramped by the end of 2028, flat after that on take-or-pay terms.
against this
  • A new site takes 60 to 90 days to reach full revenue, management says, so any delay in power or servers pushes the ramp right.
  • The revenue is net of the warrant's cost, which management puts at a little over $150M.
forwardwritten 2026-10-26
C41management claimmedium confidence
Management says its large cloud infrastructure contracts carry adjusted cash gross margins of the mid-60s to mid-70s and adjusted operating margins of the low twenties to low thirties after depreciation.
against this

No margin is reported for the business, so the range cannot be checked against a filing (C05).

forwardwritten 2026-10-26
C44facthigh confidence
The shares rose from $116.69 on 7 May 2026 to $147.71 on 8 May, the day after the $1.8B contract, and from $110.41 to $113.94 on 25 September, the day after the $11.6B one.
historical · May to September 2026written 2026-10-26
C42management claimmedium confidence
The September contract is all CPU, and management says it earns about a third of a dollar of yearly revenue per dollar of capital, against half a dollar to a dollar on most of its deals.
against this

Management argues the seven-year term and CPU's power efficiency make up for the lower revenue per dollar.

forwardwritten 2026-10-26
C40inferencelow confidence
On management's own margin range, the September contract returns roughly 10% a year before tax on its $5.5B of servers: about $1.7B of revenue less colocation and seven-year depreciation leaves about $0.4B to $0.5B.
derivedC10 and C11 give $1.7B a year and $5.5B over seven years, about $0.79B of depreciation; C41 puts large-deal operating margins at the low twenties to low thirties, $0.37B to $0.54B; over $5.5B that is about 7% to 10%, more on capital as it depreciates.
against this
  • Management says the servers can run beyond seven years, so a renewal would earn far more on capital already paid for.
  • The optional $9B uses some of the same sites, so the return on the first $5.5B could rise.
forwardwritten 2026-10-26
06

What could go wrong, and how we would know

The risks

  • One customer dominates. Anthropic will be most of the computing contracts, and may end a plan after a material outage or an uncured breach.
  • Cash runs short. On the company's own plan, cash and the credit line do not cover 2027's server spending and bond repayment without new money.
  • New shares from bonds. Bonds due 2033 turn into shares near today's price, and Anthropic's warrant covers about 7.7 million shares.
  • Delivery keeps shrinking. Delivery revenue fell 6% in Q2 2026 on price pressure and customers building their own networks.
  • Bigger clouds compete. Amazon, Google and Microsoft get first call on servers, memory, space and power, Akamai's own annual report warns.
  • Pay in shares. Pay in shares, about $510M a year, roughly equals the cash left after all spending on servers and software, and buybacks have stopped.
The evidence under this - 9 claims
C08facthigh confidence
On 18 September 2026 Anthropic committed about $11.6B over two seven-year Project Plans under its master agreement with Akamai of May 2026, subject to Akamai meeting delivery and service availability requirements.
current state · 2026-09-24written 2026-10-26
C09facthigh confidence
Anthropic may end the master agreement on Akamai's material uncured breach, and each Project Plan on notice of a material outage, subject to conditions.
current state · 2026-09-24written 2026-10-26
C43estimatelow confidence
On the company's own figures cash and securities fall from $4.6B at June 2026 to roughly $2.4B by December and below zero during 2027 once the 2027 notes are repaid, before any new financing.
against this

Management says it has the $1.0B revolver and could raise more capital, and the 2027 notes may convert rather than be repaid in full if the price passes $116.18.

forwardwritten 2026-10-26
C18facthigh confidence
The 2033 notes, $1,725M at 0.25%, convert at $93.01 and were convertible at holders' option in Q3 2026; the 2027 notes, $1,150M, convert at $116.18 and the 2029 notes, $1,265M, at $126.31.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-26
C13facthigh confidence
Anthropic's warrant covers 7,741,020 common shares, through 387,051 Series B preferred, at $111.33; 40% vests with the first payment and each further 20% with each further $3B Anthropic commits.
current state · 2026-09-24written 2026-10-26
C04facthigh confidence
Q2 2026 revenue was $1,099.7M, up 5%: security $604.4M, up 10%; delivery and other cloud applications $395.9M, down 6%; cloud infrastructure services $99.3M, up 39%.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-26
C31facthigh confidence
Akamai's 10-K says delivery revenue keeps falling on price pressure and customers building their own, and that the largest clouds have priority access to servers, memory, colocation and power.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-26
C14estimatehigh confidence
Over the four quarters to June 2026 cash from operations was about $1,447M, capital spending about $931M and stock pay about $510M, so free cash flow of about $516M barely covered stock pay.
against this

Capital spending is for growth that has revenue contracted behind it, so free cash flow understates the cash the existing business makes.

historical · TTM to 2026-06-30written 2026-10-26
C19facthigh confidence
Akamai bought back about $616M of shares in the first half of 2026, $410M of it in Q2 at an average $134.54, then paused buybacks to fund cloud infrastructure; diluted shares fell from 165.8M in 2021 to 147.0M in 2025.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-26
What we still do not know
  • What rented computing earns after space, power and depreciation; Akamai reports its revenue but not its profit.
  • How the 2027 build-out will be paid for: new debt, new shares or money from customers.
  • Why the shares fell about a fifth in October; no filing or release explains it.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C05facthigh confidence
Akamai reports cloud infrastructure services revenue but not its profit; the three revenue categories began in Q1 2026, inside one reported segment.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-26
C43estimatelow confidence
On the company's own figures cash and securities fall from $4.6B at June 2026 to roughly $2.4B by December and below zero during 2027 once the 2027 notes are repaid, before any new financing.
against this

Management says it has the $1.0B revolver and could raise more capital, and the 2027 notes may convert rather than be repaid in full if the price passes $116.18.

forwardwritten 2026-10-26
C21facthigh confidence
Akamai closed at $93.53 on 23 October 2026, 43% below its $165.45 high of 13 May; over 252 sessions it rose 25.2% while sales per share rose 0.1%, and it fell 17.9% in 20 sessions.
current state · 2026-10-23written 2026-10-26

What would change our view

  1. Neutral→AttractiveA price that gives the contracts away

    It needs all of:

    • ○The company is valued at 3 times the last year's revenue, with security still growing.about ≈$77.56 today, 17% below the last close
    • ○Security revenue grows 8% or more in the third quarter of 2026 from a year earlier.checked at the next results, due by 5 Nov
  2. Neutral→AttractiveProof the contracts earn their capital

    It needs all of:

    • ○Akamai reports a profit margin of 25% or more for rented computing, after depreciation.checked at the next results, due by 5 Nov
    • ○The 2027 server build-out is paid for without selling new shares.watched as it happens
We would also be wrong if
  • Security revenue grows less than 5% from a year earlier for two quarters running.
  • Revenue from the Anthropic contract has not started by the end of 2027.
  • Anthropic ends a plan, or Akamai discloses a material outage.

What is coming

  • 5 November 2026 Q3 2026 results: Cloud infrastructure growth against at least 50% for the year, Q3 capital spending against $475M to $525M, and how the build-out will be financed.
Every dated event ahead
  • 5 November 2026 Q3 2026 results: Cloud infrastructure growth against at least 50% for the year, Q3 capital spending against $475M to $525M, and how the build-out will be financed.
  • February 2027 Q4 2026 results and the first 2027 forecast: Whether 2027 growth is guided to the low teens and what 2027 capital spending and financing look like.
  • September 2027 First revenue from the September contract: Whether the first sites start on time, which vests the warrant's first tranche and starts the ramp.
Since we wrote this
Written
26 Oct
Price the thesis read
$93.53
23 Oct
  • 26 OctThesis writtenNeutral, medium convictionWritten ten days before Q3 2026 results, after the shares fell 43% from May while $14.4B of AI computing contracts were signed.

Sources 22

Where this came from

Sources - 22

Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.

  1. S01primarycompany filing2026-02-20
    business description, network size, customers and concentration, competition, risk factors, patents, employees
    backsC01C02C03C19C31C38
  2. S02primarycompany release2026-02-19
    2025 revenue by solution, cloud infrastructure services revenue, cash flow, capital spending, stock pay
    Cloud Infrastructure Services revenue for 2025 was $314 million, up 36% year-over-year and when adjusted for foreign exchange.
    backsC03C14
  3. S03primarycompany release2026-08-06
    Q2 revenue by the three new categories, GAAP and adjusted margins and earnings, cash from operations, cash, the robotics contract
    Cloud Infrastructure Services revenue of $99 million, up 39% year-over-year and when adjusted for foreign exchange
    backsC04C05C12C14C15C16C39C45
  4. S04primarycompany filing2026-08-07
    share count, convertible notes and conversion prices, the 2033 notes' conversion trigger, buybacks, cash flow, capital spending, remaining performance obligations, LayerX
    backsC04C05C14C15C16C17C18C19C20C22C37C38C43C47
  5. S05primarytranscript2026-08-06
    Akamai Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP)
    2026 and Q3 guidance, capital spending guide, the 2027 growth target, large-deal margins, buyback pause, GPU capacity, the CrowdStrike win; questions from analysts
    Looking ahead to the full year 2026, we expect revenue of $4.445 billion to $4.530 billion, which is up 6% to 8% as reported, and up 5% to 7% in constant currency. ... these large scale contracts typically generate non GAAP operating margins ranging from the low- to mid-20s up to the low-30s.
    backsC06C07C15C19C37C41C43C45C46
  6. S06primarycompany filing2026-09-24
    the $11.6B commitment, seven-year terms, conditions, termination rights, the warrant and its vesting, the Series B preferred
    backsC08C09C13C48
  7. S07primarytranscript2026-09-24
    revenue timing, capital spending by year, depreciation life, colocation cost per megawatt, the warrant's value, the $14.4B of large contracts and their power, financing, the optional $9B
    Second, we expect revenue to begin in the second half of 2027, and we expect to generate approximately $150 million- $300 million for the full year 2027. Finally, we expect revenue to continue to ramp throughout 2028 and to be fully ramped by year-end 2028, with a go-forward annualized revenue run rate of approximately $1.7 billion per year thereafter. ... From a CapEx perspective, we expect to spend approximately $5.5 billion over the next two years
    backsC10C11C12C13C42C43C48
  8. S08primarycompany filing2026-05-22
    the size of the two note issues, the shares repurchased with the proceeds, the use of the rest for cloud infrastructure capital spending
    backsC17
  9. S09primarycompany release2026-09-24
    the headline terms of the September agreement
    Akamai Announces $11.6 Billion Multi-year Agreement with Anthropic to Support Growing Demand
    backsC08C44
  10. S10primarytranscript2026-05-07
    Akamai Q1 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP)
    the $1.8B contract, the $200M contract, the first view of 2027 growth
    the signing of a landmark seven-year $1.8 billion commitment for our cloud infrastructure services by a leading frontier model company.
    backsC07C12C44
  11. S11primarycompany filing2026-03-31
    beneficial ownership, the chief executive's pay, bonus and performance share measures, board leadership
    backsC35C36
  12. S12secondaryvendor data2026-10-26
    Research pack, frozen 2026-10-26 (FMP market data, FINRA short interest, Form 4 roster, filed cohort)
    daily closes, the price decomposition, analyst estimates and ratings, price-target drift, cohort multiples, short interest, insider roster
    backsC21C22C23C24C25C34C44
  13. S13primaryindustry data2026-10-26
    Akamai's share of websites, measured outside the company
    Akamai is used by 1.9% of all the websites whose reverse proxy service we know. This is 0.6% of all websites .
    backsC26
  14. S14primaryindustry data2025-07-30
    what a breach costs the buyer
    The global average cost of a data breach fell to $4.44 million, the first decline in five years, while the average U.S. cost of a breach reached a record $10.22 million.
    backsC27
  15. S15primaryindustry data2026-07-30
    the size and growth of cloud infrastructure spending, and of the AI part of it
    Q2 enterprise spending on cloud infrastructure services jumped by more than $43 billion from the second quarter of last year to reach $143 billion. ... GenAI-specific cloud services are growing at 165% year over year
    backsC28
  16. S16primarycompany release2026-04-06
    the customer's own growth and where most of its computing sits
    Our run-rate revenue has now surpassed $30 billion-up from approximately $9 billion at the end of 2025. ... Amazon remains our primary cloud provider and training partner
    backsC29
  17. S17primarygovernment data2024-12-20
    how fast data-centre power demand is rising, the input Akamai has to rent
    The report finds that data centers consumed about 4.4% of total U.S. electricity in 2023 and are expected to consume approximately 6.7 to 12% of total U.S. electricity by 2028. The report indicates that total data center electricity usage climbed from 58 TWh in 2014 to 176 TWh in 2023 and estimates an increase between 325 to 580 TWh by 2028.
    backsC30
  18. S18primarycompany filing2026-02-26
    a rival's description of the same products sold to the same buyers
    backsC32
  19. S19primarycompany filing2026-02-25
    a rival naming Akamai for delivery and security
    backsC32
  20. S20primarycompany filing2026-03-02
    the AI cloud rivals and how a specialist cloud sells capacity to AI labs
    backsC33
  21. S21primarytranscript2026-02-19
    Akamai Q4 2025 earnings call transcript (FMP)
    the first large cloud infrastructure contract and the 2026 plan
    We're very excited that this technology company has committed to a minimum 4-year spend of approximately $200 million on our Cloud Infrastructure Services with a large majority of that spend for our AI Inference Cloud.
    backsC12
  22. S22primaryindustry data2026-10-10
    the leading rival's share of websites on the same survey
    Cloudflare is used by 85.5% of all the websites whose reverse proxy service we know. This is 26.8% of all websites .
    backsC26
Rendered from content/AKAM/thesis.json · thesis reviewed 2026-10-26. This page explains a company; it does not say what to pay, when to buy or how much.