← All thesesLMNDNeutralMedium convictionThursday 1 October 2026עברית

Lemonade

An insurance company run through an app: renters, home, pet and car cover, sold and mostly claimed by chatbot, carrying its own risk.

Our viewNeutral Medium conviction
The scores
The profile · 1-4
Growth4/4 ↑

Yearly policy payments grew 32.4%, faster for eleven quarters, from new customers in pet and car, with nothing acquired since 2022.

Business quality3/4 ↑

Claims handling at 5% against about 9% and pet share gains are real, but claims ratios match the industry and retention is 85%.

Financial position3/4 →

About $1.06B of cash and investments and lender-funded growth committed to 2028, but losses shrink equity and keeping more risk needs capital.

Execution record3/4 ↑

Guides raised or met through 2026 and the 2027 profit target kept since 2022, but growth was halved in 2023 and cash measures include borrowing.

Per share capture2/4 ↓

Shares rise about 5% a year, share pay jumped to $24.5M a quarter, and the profit measure management targets leaves it out.

Potential3/4 →

Under 0.2% of a $566B market and growing 32%, but mature margins need a cheaper claims cost to show up as profit, unproven.

Risk profile3/4 →

One counterparty, Hannover Re, both reinsures and funds growth, renewing yearly; storms are capped by catastrophe cover; a new CFO arrives in January.

Valuation2/4 ↑

The price needs about twice this year's sales at a 10% pretax margin Lemonade has never earned: the plan, then the good case beyond it.

Evidence quality3/4 →

Statements and NAIC's regulator data corroborate the position; the mature margin, lifetime value and reserve adequacy rest on management or my arithmetic.

The bet · 2-3 years
Priced for success0.7×

If it works 0.7× · if it fails you keep about 10%.

The Verdict

We rate Lemonade neutral. It sells renters, home, pet and car insurance through an app, where chatbots handle almost every policy and claim, so it runs cheaply and grows fast; the business is solid. But it has never made a profit, its headline revenue jump came mostly from reinsurance changes, and releases of old reserves flattered its claims costs. The price is full: it already assumes Lemonade roughly doubles and earns a steady profit, so a miss would hurt. As a bet it is fragile: even the best case is worth less than today's price, and failure leaves about a tenth.

The long caseFew US pets are insured and vet bills keep rising; if Lemonade grows there and keeps claims costs low through software, losses could turn into profit.

The evidence under this - 8 claims
C01facthigh confidence
Lemonade sells renters, homeowners, pet and car insurance through its app and website in the US, and contents, home and pet cover in Germany, the Netherlands, France and the UK, from its own licensed insurance companies. Its bots sell 98% of policies; life insurance is placed with Legal & General for a commission.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-01
C02facthigh confidence
In-force premium, the annualised premium of every live policy, was $1,434.3M at 30 June 2026, up 32.4% from $1,083.4M a year earlier, with 3,308,666 customers (up 22.9%) paying $433 each on average (up 7.7%). Management calls it the eleventh straight quarter of faster growth.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-01
C07facthigh confidence
Of in-force premium at 30 June 2026, homeowners, condo and renters were $554M (up 6% in a year), pet $543M (up 55%), car $239M (up 59%), Europe $74M and other $24M.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-01
C08facthigh confidence
Lemonade's cost of handling claims, excluding earlier-year revisions, fell to 5% of gross earned premium in Q2 2026 from 13% in Q3 2022, with car at 7%. Its chatbot takes 96% of first claim reports and about 55% of claims are settled automatically.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-01
C05facthigh confidence
Revenue grew 79% to $294.4M in Q2 2026, faster than the 32% rise in earned premium, because Lemonade now cedes about 20% of premium to reinsurers against about 55% before July 2025: ceded earned premium fell from $139.8M to $80.4M while net earned premium rose from $112.5M to $252.0M.
historical · Q2 2026 against Q2 2025written 2026-10-01
C19estimatemedium confidence
Revisions to earlier years' claim estimates lowered the gross loss ratio by 5, 9, 3 and 7 points in the four quarters to June 2026, about $72M; the gross loss ratio was 60% in Q2 2026 and about 67% without that help, against 64% a year earlier.
derivedPrior period development and gross loss ratios by quarter from the letter's insurance supplement (S04), times gross earned premium each quarter (C03).
against this
  • Management says the releases follow better-than-expected car and home claims, and that today's reserves are set exactly right (S06).
  • Net of reinsurance the 10-Q shows a smaller release, $16.4M in the first half of 2026 against $12.6M a year earlier.
historical · Q3 2025 to Q2 2026written 2026-10-01
C30estimatehigh confidence
At $45.14 on 77,326,718 shares the market value is about $3.49B, 7.4 times tangible equity of $472.4M, 3.6 times revenue of $975.0M and 2.4 times in-force premium.
derivedClose of $45.14 on 2026-09-30 (S10) times shares outstanding at 30 June 2026 (C24); tangible equity is $499.5M less $19.0M goodwill and $8.1M intangibles (C27); revenue from C21's four quarters; in-force premium from C02.
against this
  • Tangible equity is shrinking with each loss, so the multiple rises even on a flat price; it is a weak denominator for a company spending on growth.
  • Against in-force premium, 2.4 times is modest for a book growing 32% if mature margins arrive.
current state · 2026-09-30written 2026-10-01
C32facthigh confidence
Lemonade has never reported a GAAP profitable year: the net loss was $165.5M in 2025 and $138.4M over the four quarters to June 2026.
historical · 2025 and Q3 2025 to Q2 2026written 2026-10-01
01

The company

Lemonade is an insurer for people who would rather tap an app than call an agent. A chatbot quotes a renters, home, pet or car policy in a few minutes; another takes the claim, and simple ones are paid within seconds.

Customers would otherwise buy from State Farm, Progressive or GEICO, often through an agent, or from Trupanion in pet. In pet, the one market where it is already large, the regulator's figures make it the sixth-biggest US insurer, at 8.07% of the market.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C01facthigh confidence
Lemonade sells renters, homeowners, pet and car insurance through its app and website in the US, and contents, home and pet cover in Germany, the Netherlands, France and the UK, from its own licensed insurance companies. Its bots sell 98% of policies; life insurance is placed with Legal & General for a commission.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-01
C11facthigh confidence
On NAIC's 2025 data Lemonade was the sixth-largest US pet insurer, with $441.2M of direct written premium and 8.07% of a $5,466.9M market; Trupanion led with 22.34%, Nationwide 17.49% and JAB's pet insurers 16.17%.
historical · 2025written 2026-10-01
C12facthigh confidence
NAPHIA, the pet insurers' trade body, counts US pet premium in force at about $5.7B at the end of 2025, up 19.7% in a year, with 4.27% of 163.6 million US dogs and cats insured; Lemonade's pet premium in force grew 55% in the year to June 2026.
historical · 2025written 2026-10-01
C08facthigh confidence
Lemonade's cost of handling claims, excluding earlier-year revisions, fell to 5% of gross earned premium in Q2 2026 from 13% in Q3 2022, with car at 7%. Its chatbot takes 96% of first claim reports and about 55% of claims are settled automatically.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-01
C17facthigh confidence
Progressive ranked second in US car insurance and sells direct online, and on NAIC's 2025 data State Farm, Progressive, GEICO and Allstate wrote 58.87% of the $371.6B US car market where Lemonade wrote $137.5M, 0.04%.
historical · 2025written 2026-10-01

How it makes money

Customers pay for a year's cover. Lemonade keeps what is left after paying claims and running the business, plus interest on the money it holds before claims are paid.

It hands about a fifth of each policy, and the same share of claims, to reinsurers, larger insurers that share the risk. Before July 2025 it handed over more than half. New customers are won with advertising that outside lenders pay for up front, repaid from those customers' payments.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C02facthigh confidence
In-force premium, the annualised premium of every live policy, was $1,434.3M at 30 June 2026, up 32.4% from $1,083.4M a year earlier, with 3,308,666 customers (up 22.9%) paying $433 each on average (up 7.7%). Management calls it the eleventh straight quarter of faster growth.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-01
C03facthigh confidence
Gross earned premium, what was earned before reinsurance, grew 32% to $332.4M in Q2 2026 and was $1,203.5M over the four quarters to June 2026; management guides $1,374M-$1,378M for 2026 and in-force premium of $1,632M-$1,639M at year end.
historical · Q3 2025 to Q2 2026written 2026-10-01
C05facthigh confidence
Revenue grew 79% to $294.4M in Q2 2026, faster than the 32% rise in earned premium, because Lemonade now cedes about 20% of premium to reinsurers against about 55% before July 2025: ceded earned premium fell from $139.8M to $80.4M while net earned premium rose from $112.5M to $252.0M.
historical · Q2 2026 against Q2 2025written 2026-10-01
C25facthigh confidence
General Catalyst finances up to 80% of Lemonade's customer-acquisition spend and is repaid from those customers' premiums with a 16% return; $206.4M was outstanding at 30 June 2026 and $12.5M of interest was paid in the first half. From 2027 Hannover Re takes over, up to $250M at the three-year Treasury rate plus 5.8%.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-01
C42facthigh confidence
Unearned premium, what customers have paid for cover not yet given, was $661.7M at 30 June 2026; policies run twelve months or monthly and can be cancelled.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-01
Where the money comes from, stream by stream
StreamShare of sales (H1 2026)How it earns it
Net earned premium84.1%Premium kept after reinsurance on renters, homeowners, pet, car and European policies, earned over each policy's term; pet and car grow fastest.
Ceding commission income8.0%Paid by reinsurers on the premium Lemonade passes to them, covering its cost of writing it; shrinking as Lemonade cedes less.
Net investment income3.5%Interest on the cash and bonds held against claims and capital.
Commission and other income4.4%Commissions on policies placed with other insurers, carrying no risk, and fees on premiums paid in instalments.

Who runs it

Daniel Schreiber co-founded Lemonade in 2015 and still runs it, with his co-founder Shai Wininger as president. Under them sales have grown fast, but the company has never made a yearly profit. Insiders own about an eighth of the shares, Wininger the most. There is no yearly cash bonus: pay is mostly options and shares that vest with time, plus a 2026 award to the two founders that pays only if the share price climbs far above today's. Nothing pays on profit. A new finance chief starts in January.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C53facthigh confidence
Daniel Schreiber has been co-founder, chief executive and chairman since June 2015; Shai Wininger, co-founder and earlier founder of Fiverr, has been president and a director since 2015; Tim Bixby has been chief financial officer since June 2017.
current state · 2026-04-22written 2026-10-04
C51facthigh confidence
As of 9 April 2026 the 12 directors and executive officers owned 12.2% of Lemonade, counting options exercisable within 60 days; co-founder Shai Wininger held 5.4%, the largest insider, and Daniel Schreiber 3.0%. JPMorgan (5.8%) and BlackRock (5.3%) were the only other holders above 5%; there is one class of share, one vote each.
against this

About 2.9M of the group's 9.76M shares are options and RSUs vesting within 60 days rather than shares held, and insiders sold 466,216 shares in the year to September 2026 (C36).

current state · 2026-04-09written 2026-10-04
C52facthigh confidence
Lemonade pays its named executives no annual cash bonus; about 88% of their 2025 target pay was stock options and RSUs vesting quarterly over three years on service alone. In March 2026 the CEO and President each received 180,000 RSUs that vest only if the shares close at $110 or above for 30 consecutive trading days within 24 months, $15.4M of grant-date value in all.
against this
  • No award pays on the loss ratio, profit, retention or premium growth, so the plan rewards the share price and tenure rather than the 2027 profit target (C22).
  • The expense on the March 2026 award is recognised whether or not the price target is met (10-Q note).
historical · FY2025 to March 2026written 2026-10-04
C32facthigh confidence
Lemonade has never reported a GAAP profitable year: the net loss was $165.5M in 2025 and $138.4M over the four quarters to June 2026.
historical · 2025 and Q3 2025 to Q2 2026written 2026-10-01
C37facthigh confidence
The CFO, Tim Bixby, moves to the board on 1 January 2027 and is replaced by Nick Stead, the 33-year-old head of finance who arranged the growth financing.
current state · 2026-07-27written 2026-10-01
02

Why it wins, and who could beat it

Why customers come back

The advantage is cost. One system sells, services and settles claims, so each extra policy is cheap to serve: claims handling fell from 13 cents to 5 cents of each dollar customers pay as the business tripled. The regulator's 2025 figures put the industry near 9 cents.

It is not better judgement about risk: on the same figures, Lemonade paid out about as much of each dollar in claims as the industry, in pet, home and car. The saving buys room to price lower; it is not yet profit.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C08facthigh confidence
Lemonade's cost of handling claims, excluding earlier-year revisions, fell to 5% of gross earned premium in Q2 2026 from 13% in Q3 2022, with car at 7%. Its chatbot takes 96% of first claim reports and about 55% of claims are settled automatically.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-01
C09factmedium confidence
Across the US property and casualty industry in 2025, loss adjustment expenses were $86,003M against net earned premium of $958,726M, about 9.0%, on NAIC's year-end snapshot. It mixes commercial lines and counts net of reinsurance, unlike Lemonade's gross 5%.
historical · 2025written 2026-10-01
C10management claimlow confidence
Lemonade says it has about 2,300 customers per employee against roughly 300 to 600 at five competing US insurers, counting the rivals' agents as employees; it had 1,282 staff at the end of 2025.
against this

The five rivals are unnamed and the adjustment for agents is the company's own; incumbents also run commercial and specialty lines that need more staff per customer.

current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-01
C11facthigh confidence
On NAIC's 2025 data Lemonade was the sixth-largest US pet insurer, with $441.2M of direct written premium and 8.07% of a $5,466.9M market; Trupanion led with 22.34%, Nationwide 17.49% and JAB's pet insurers 16.17%.
historical · 2025written 2026-10-01
C13facthigh confidence
On NAIC's 2025 direct figures Lemonade's losses were 65.66% of earned premium in pet against 68.07% for the industry, 51.64% in homeowners against 55.14%, and 60.99% in car against 61.48% - close to the industry, not far below it.
historical · 2025written 2026-10-01

The threat

Each line has a strong rival. In car, Tesla sells its own insurance in 13 states using the same driving data Lemonade prices self-driving miles on, and four giants write 58.87% of the market. In pet, Chewy sells Trupanion's cover beside Lemonade's. In home, State Farm and Allstate discount the policy for anyone who also insures a car with them.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C16facthigh confidence
Tesla's 2025 10-K says its own insurance, priced on real-time driving behaviour, is available in 13 states; Lemonade's car product prices miles driven on Tesla's Full Self-Driving at half its human-driven rate using the same car's telemetry.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-01
C17facthigh confidence
Progressive ranked second in US car insurance and sells direct online, and on NAIC's 2025 data State Farm, Progressive, GEICO and Allstate wrote 58.87% of the $371.6B US car market where Lemonade wrote $137.5M, 0.04%.
historical · 2025written 2026-10-01
C18factmedium confidence
Chewy sells pet cover under its CarePlus name from both Trupanion and Lemonade; Lemonade ended its warrant agreement with Chewy in 2025 and cancelled the unvested warrant shares.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-01
C43facthigh confidence
On NAIC's 2025 data State Farm wrote 18.67% of the $189.0B US homeowners market and Allstate 9.40%; Lemonade, 47th, wrote 0.27%.
historical · 2025written 2026-10-01

The rivals: TSLA, PGR, TRUP, CHWY, ALL, HIPO, ROOT, TRV, and 1 more that is private, in-house or listed abroad.

Who else does this, rival by rival
TickerRivalWhere it competesHow far alongPriced against it
TSLATesla InsurancePriced against it: One segment onlyCar insurance in the US, including autonomous-mile pricingOn saleOne segment only
PGRProgressive (direct online car and bundled home)Priced against it: YesCar insurance in the US, including autonomous-mile pricingOn saleYes
TRUP · CHWYTrupanion, including through Chewy's CarePlusPriced against it: YesPet insurance in the USOn saleYes
ALLState Farm and Allstate homeowners policies, sold through agents and bundled with carPriced against it: YesHomeowners multi-peril: renters, condo and homeowners cover in the USOn saleYes
HIPOHippo HoldingsPriced against it: Yes-On saleYes
ROOTRootPriced against it: Yes-On saleYes
TRVThe Travelers CompaniesPriced against it: Yes-On saleYes
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (GEICO)Priced against it: One segment only-On saleOne segment only
03

How big it could get

How big this could get

The US markets Lemonade sells in, car, home and pet, took $566.1B of customer payments in 2025, on the regulator's count. Lemonade wrote $1.10B of that, about 0.2%. Car alone is $371.6B, and Lemonade has 0.04% of it.

Pet is smaller, about $5.5B, but only 4.27% of US dogs and cats are insured and the market grew about 20% last year.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C38facthigh confidence
On NAIC's 2025 data Lemonade wrote $1,095.7M of direct premium, 0.10% of the $1,116.1B US property and casualty market, $517.0M of it homeowners (0.27% of $189.0B) and $137.5M car (0.04% of $371.6B).
historical · 2025written 2026-10-01
C11facthigh confidence
On NAIC's 2025 data Lemonade was the sixth-largest US pet insurer, with $441.2M of direct written premium and 8.07% of a $5,466.9M market; Trupanion led with 22.34%, Nationwide 17.49% and JAB's pet insurers 16.17%.
historical · 2025written 2026-10-01
C12facthigh confidence
NAPHIA, the pet insurers' trade body, counts US pet premium in force at about $5.7B at the end of 2025, up 19.7% in a year, with 4.27% of 163.6 million US dogs and cats insured; Lemonade's pet premium in force grew 55% in the year to June 2026.
historical · 2025written 2026-10-01
C17facthigh confidence
Progressive ranked second in US car insurance and sells direct online, and on NAIC's 2025 data State Farm, Progressive, GEICO and Allstate wrote 58.87% of the $371.6B US car market where Lemonade wrote $137.5M, 0.04%.
historical · 2025written 2026-10-01
C39facthigh confidence
Lemonade operates in 41 states and Washington, D.C., about 95% of the US population, and is licensed in all 50; it holds a pan-European licence and sells in four European countries.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-01
04

The results

The numbers

Is it growing?Fast

Sales grew 62% over the twelve months to Jun 2026, faster than the 40% in the year to Dec 2025.

Dec 2021: $128MDec 2022: $257MDec 2023: $430MDec 2024: $526MDec 2025: $738M12 mo to Jun 2026: $975M$128M$975M
Is it profitable?Losing

It lost 14% of sales, up from −55% in the year to Dec 2023.

Dec 2021: −188%Dec 2022: −116%Dec 2023: −55%Dec 2024: −38%Dec 2025: −22%12 mo to Jun 2026: −14%−188%−14%
How steady is it?Swingy

Yearly sales growth has ranged from +22% to +100% over the last 5 years.

Dec 2021: +36%Dec 2022: +100%Dec 2023: +67%Dec 2024: +22%Dec 2025: +40%+36%+40%
Does it earn good returns?Poor

Shareholders' money lost 27% a year.

Dec 2021: −32%Dec 2022: −32%Dec 2023: −30%Dec 2024: −31%Dec 2025: −29%12 mo to Jun 2026: −27%−32%−27%
Is it making cash?Thin

It turned 0.8% of sales into free cash, $8.10M over the last twelve months.

Dec 2021: −$154MDec 2022: −$173MDec 2023: −$128MDec 2024: −$20.8MDec 2025: −$25.9M12 mo to Jun 2026: $8.10M−$154M$8.10M
Are shares being diluted?Diluting

The share count rose 26% in 4.5 years, and pay in shares costs 8.3% of sales.

Dec 2021: 61.2MDec 2022: 64.9MDec 2023: 69.7MDec 2024: 71.0MDec 2025: 73.9M12 mo to Jun 2026: 77.0M61.2M77.0M
All the numbers

Filed figures from the company's 10-K and 10-Q, read 2026-10-04. Fiscal years end in December.

Dec 2021Dec 2022Dec 2023Dec 2024Dec 202512 mo to Jun 2026
Size and growth
Sales$128M$257M$430M$526M$738M$975M
Sales growth+36%+100%+67%+22%+40%+62%
Profit
Net margin−188%−116%−55%−38%−22%−14%
What growth costs, per sales dollar
Research and development40%31%21%16%13%11%
Sales and marketing110%54%24%32%30%27%
General and admin57%48%30%24%19%17%
Pay in shares34%23%14%12%8.3%8.3%
Capital spending7.3%3.9%2.1%1.8%1.3%1.3%
Cash
Cash from operations−$145M−$163M−$119M−$11.4M−$16.5M$21.2M
Free cash flow−$154M−$173M−$128M−$20.8M−$25.9M$8.10M
Balance sheet
Cash and short-term investments$381M$382M$310M$404M$399M$377M
Returns and shares
Shares (diluted)61.2M64.9M69.7M71.0M73.9M77.0M

What growth costs

For each dollar customers pay for their policies, Lemonade now spends a little less on technology and office overhead than two years ago, so its losses shrink as it grows. Advertising is the exception: it is rising faster than customers' payments, funded partly with borrowed money. Some of the recent improvement also came from releasing old claim reserves, which cannot repeat for ever.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C55facthigh confidence
Per dollar of gross earned premium, technology development fell from 10.4 cents in 2024 to 8.8 over the four quarters to June 2026 and general and administrative from 15.0 to 14.0, stock pay from 7.8 to 6.8, while sales and marketing rose from 20.1 to 22.1; the net loss narrowed from 24.4 cents to 11.5.
against this
  • About $72M of earlier-year reserve releases over the same four quarters (C19) account for roughly six cents of the narrower loss.
  • General and administrative carries the growth-financing interest and depreciation, and rose faster than premium in the first half of 2026.
historical · 2024 to the four quarters to June 2026written 2026-10-04
C25facthigh confidence
General Catalyst finances up to 80% of Lemonade's customer-acquisition spend and is repaid from those customers' premiums with a 16% return; $206.4M was outstanding at 30 June 2026 and $12.5M of interest was paid in the first half. From 2027 Hannover Re takes over, up to $250M at the three-year Treasury rate plus 5.8%.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-01
C19estimatemedium confidence
Revisions to earlier years' claim estimates lowered the gross loss ratio by 5, 9, 3 and 7 points in the four quarters to June 2026, about $72M; the gross loss ratio was 60% in Q2 2026 and about 67% without that help, against 64% a year earlier.
derivedPrior period development and gross loss ratios by quarter from the letter's insurance supplement (S04), times gross earned premium each quarter (C03).
against this
  • Management says the releases follow better-than-expected car and home claims, and that today's reserves are set exactly right (S06).
  • Net of reinsurance the 10-Q shows a smaller release, $16.4M in the first half of 2026 against $12.6M a year earlier.
historical · Q3 2025 to Q2 2026written 2026-10-01

The last report (29 Jul)

Quarter ended June 2026, filed figures.

79%
Sales growth
against the same quarter a year earlier
14.1%
Growth from the quarter before
against 13.1% the quarter before that

In the quarter to June 2026, what customers pay each year rose 32.4% to $1.43B, faster again, from 3.3 million customers. Revenue rose 79%, but mostly because Lemonade now keeps more of each policy instead of handing it to reinsurers.

Claims took 60 cents of each dollar earned. Without releases from reserves set aside in earlier years, it would have been about 67 cents, and pet claims rose with vet costs. The loss was $43.4M, the same as a year earlier. The full-year outlook was held, not raised, and the shares fell 23.7% that day.

What it did to the thesisIt supported the growth and the low-cost model, but it weakened the profit case. Without releases from old reserves, claims cost more than a year earlier, pet claims rose and losses did not shrink. The price assumes mature profits, so the view stays Neutral.

The quarter in detail

Sales growth from the previous quarter, filed figures.

Earnings per share $-0.56 against $-0.56 expected; $-0.56 as filed, with no adjustments.

The evidence under this - 6 claims
C02facthigh confidence
In-force premium, the annualised premium of every live policy, was $1,434.3M at 30 June 2026, up 32.4% from $1,083.4M a year earlier, with 3,308,666 customers (up 22.9%) paying $433 each on average (up 7.7%). Management calls it the eleventh straight quarter of faster growth.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-01
C05facthigh confidence
Revenue grew 79% to $294.4M in Q2 2026, faster than the 32% rise in earned premium, because Lemonade now cedes about 20% of premium to reinsurers against about 55% before July 2025: ceded earned premium fell from $139.8M to $80.4M while net earned premium rose from $112.5M to $252.0M.
historical · Q2 2026 against Q2 2025written 2026-10-01
C19estimatemedium confidence
Revisions to earlier years' claim estimates lowered the gross loss ratio by 5, 9, 3 and 7 points in the four quarters to June 2026, about $72M; the gross loss ratio was 60% in Q2 2026 and about 67% without that help, against 64% a year earlier.
derivedPrior period development and gross loss ratios by quarter from the letter's insurance supplement (S04), times gross earned premium each quarter (C03).
against this
  • Management says the releases follow better-than-expected car and home claims, and that today's reserves are set exactly right (S06).
  • Net of reinsurance the 10-Q shows a smaller release, $16.4M in the first half of 2026 against $12.6M a year earlier.
historical · Q3 2025 to Q2 2026written 2026-10-01
C20facthigh confidence
The attritional loss ratio, claims excluding catastrophes, handling costs and revisions, was 59% in Q2 2026 against 58% a year earlier and 54% in the two quarters before; pet's gross loss ratio rose to 74% from 70%, which management puts down to vet-cost inflation.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-01
C21facthigh confidence
Q2 2026 net loss was $43.4M against $43.9M a year earlier, which held a $11.7M one-off tax refund. Over the four quarters to June 2026 the net loss was $138.4M and adjusted EBITDA a $66.0M loss.
historical · Q3 2025 to Q2 2026written 2026-10-01
C04facthigh confidence
The 2026 guide for in-force premium was $1,625M-$1,630M in February, raised to $1,632M-$1,639M in April and held there in July; the July guide puts year-end growth at about 32%, against 32.4% in Q2 and about 33% guided for Q3.
historical · 2026 guidance, February to Julywritten 2026-10-01
What management did with the money

Insiders in 2026Q3: 1 purchases and 4 sales, from their Form 4 filings.

05

The price, and where we disagree

In short. Full. The price already pays for Lemonade roughly doubling in size and earning a steady profit, which it has never done.

Share price
$45.14
close,
Price for each $1 of net worth excluding goodwill
7.3
rivals' middle 2.5

The shares closed at $45.14 on 30 September, 53.3% below their January high, after three results days in a row went badly. The market sold off because the outlook was held rather than raised, while spending on new customers rises again.

This has happened before. In July 2024 the outlook was also held, the shares fell 20.3%, and growth then sped up for two years. The next test is the September-quarter report in November, with the first quarter of profit on management's own measure promised for the last quarter of 2026.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C33facthigh confidence
The shares fell 23.7% on 29 July 2026, the day of the Q2 results, from $62.11 to $47.38; they had fallen 6.2% after the February print and 14.9% after April's, after rising 29.5% and 34.2% on the August and November 2025 prints. They closed at $45.14 on 30 September, 53.3% below the $96.57 close of 22 January 2026.
historical · 2025-08-05 to 2026-09-30written 2026-10-01
C35facthigh confidence
In July 2024 Lemonade reaffirmed rather than raised its full-year guide and said Q3 growth spend would triple; the shares fell 20.3% on 31 July 2024. In-force premium growth then rose every quarter, from 22% to 32%, and the shares went from about $18 to $96.
historical · 2024-07-31 to 2026-01-22written 2026-10-01
C04facthigh confidence
The 2026 guide for in-force premium was $1,625M-$1,630M in February, raised to $1,632M-$1,639M in April and held there in July; the July guide puts year-end growth at about 32%, against 32.4% in Q2 and about 33% guided for Q3.
historical · 2026 guidance, February to Julywritten 2026-10-01
C22management claimmedium confidence
Management guides 2026 adjusted EBITDA to a $47M-$51M loss with Q4 about $8M positive, and says 2027 will be its first full year of positive adjusted EBITDA, a target it first set in 2022. Adjusted EBITDA adds back share pay, guided at $95M for 2026, and the interest on growth financing.
against this
  • The 2026 range has been held at about $49M through two quarters, and losses have narrowed from $47.0M in Q1 2025 to $18.7M in Q2 2026.
  • Share pay rose to $24.5M in Q2 from $15.4M after multi-year executive awards in Q1 2026.
forwardwritten 2026-10-01
The betPriced for success
If it works
0.7×
from today's value, valued like its peers
If it fails
keep 10%
of today's market value: what the worst case leaves shareholders
How we read the multiple

Buyers pay about $7 for each $1 of Lemonade's net worth, what it owns minus what it owes. Rivals sell for about $2.50, and all of them make a profit. Lemonade never has.

To earn 6% a year after tax on today's price, a common yardstick, Lemonade must:

  1. Earn about $265M a year before tax. Today it loses money.
  2. Sell about $2.65B of insurance a year, at 10 cents profit on each dollar.
  3. That is 1.9 times this year's outlook, or about two and a half years of 30% growth.

Against its own history. Buyers pay less for each dollar of sales than they used to, but sales now count money that once went to reinsurers, so the cheapening is smaller than it looks.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C30estimatehigh confidence
At $45.14 on 77,326,718 shares the market value is about $3.49B, 7.4 times tangible equity of $472.4M, 3.6 times revenue of $975.0M and 2.4 times in-force premium.
derivedClose of $45.14 on 2026-09-30 (S10) times shares outstanding at 30 June 2026 (C24); tangible equity is $499.5M less $19.0M goodwill and $8.1M intangibles (C27); revenue from C21's four quarters; in-force premium from C02.
against this
  • Tangible equity is shrinking with each loss, so the multiple rises even on a flat price; it is a weak denominator for a company spending on growth.
  • Against in-force premium, 2.4 times is modest for a book growing 32% if mature margins arrive.
current state · 2026-09-30written 2026-10-01
C31estimatemedium confidence
For a 6% after-tax yield at 21% tax, the market value needs about $265M of pretax profit a year. At a 10% pretax margin on gross earned premium that is about $2.65B of premium, 1.9 times the 2026 guide and 2.5 years of 30% growth; at 8% it is $3.3B, about 3.3 years.
derivedMarket value of $3.49B (C30) times 6% divided by 0.79; gross earned premium guide of $1,376M midpoint (C03). The margins are judgements, not company targets.
against this
  • US P&C insurers earned net income of about 15.7% of net premium in 2025 on NAIC's snapshot (S12), so 10% pretax is not the best case in a good year.
  • Lemonade has tax losses to use, so near-term tax would be well below 21%.
  • The arithmetic ignores dilution of about 4.8% a year (C24), which raises the profit needed per share.
current state · 2026-09-30written 2026-10-01
C32facthigh confidence
Lemonade has never reported a GAAP profitable year: the net loss was $165.5M in 2025 and $138.4M over the four quarters to June 2026.
historical · 2025 and Q3 2025 to Q2 2026written 2026-10-01
C27facthigh confidence
Equity was $499.5M at 30 June 2026, down from $533.6M in December, with $19.0M of goodwill and $8.1M of intangibles. The insurance companies held $810.5M of cash and investments, of which $352.4M is regulatory surplus they cannot pay out without approval.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-01
Priced against its rivals

The competitors its own annual report names, each confirmed against the rival's filing. Measured on price for each $1 of net worth excluding goodwill, cheapest first:

TickerCompanyprice for each $1 of net worth excluding goodwill
ALLThe Allstate1.9×
HIPOHippo Holdings2.0×
ROOTRoot2.3×
TRVThe Travelers Companies2.6×
TRUPTrupanion2.9×
PGRThe Progressive3.4×
LMNDLemonade7.3×

The middle of the other 6 is 2.5. Lemonade, Inc. is dearest of 7.

Rivals' figures come from a data provider, so read the spread of the group rather than any single pair.

Every filed rival trades at a fraction of this price for its net worth, and every one of them earns a profit on it.

Private or foreign rivals that cannot be priced: State Farm, Liberty Mutual, Farmers Insurance, Nationwide (pet), Embrace Pet Insurance.

The bet: what it pays if it works

Even if this works, the shares look expensive. The best case we can defend is Lemonade keeping its current growth for two more years. Priced like the other listed insurers, that is still worth less than today's market value: the price already pays for growth beyond it and for profits Lemonade has never made.

If it fails, shareholders keep the capital behind the policies, a small part of today's value, and it shrinks each year the losses continue.

Revenue in two to three yearsCustomers neededValued like its peersLike the cheapest
$2.10Babout 5.4M at 89% kept0.6×0.2×
$2.45B (the big win)about 6.4M at 89% kept0.7×0.3×
$3.06B (market forecast)about 7.9M at 89% kept0.9×0.4×
$3.30Babout 8.6M at 89% kept1.0×0.4×

Lemonade is 0.2% of its lines, so the market sets no ceiling: 15% of pet, Root's car scale and today's home share give about $3.4B premium and $3.1B revenue by 2029, still below what the price needs. On that forecast, $3.06B pays 0.9× from today's value: an Expensive bet on the market case.

To pay 2× (a Fair bet) it would need about $6.61B of revenue (about 17.1M customers at 89% kept); to pay 5× (a Cheap bet), about $16.51B of revenue (about 42.8M customers at 89% kept), at the same multiple.

The steps it has to take

  • Done In-force premium growth faster for eleven straight quarters, to 32%
  • Done Reinsurance cut to about a fifth of premium and the July 2026 programme renewed with storm cover
  • In progress Q3 2026 in-force premium at or above the $1,537M guide, loss ratio before revisions at or below 67% due 2026-11-04
  • In progress Growth financing moves from General Catalyst to Hannover Re due 2027-01
  • In progress Q4 2026 adjusted EBITDA about $8M positive, as guided due 2027-02
  • Not started Gross loss ratio before earlier-year revisions at or below 62% for a full year due 2027-12
  • Not started A quarter of positive GAAP net income due 2027-12
  • Not started First full year of positive adjusted EBITDA due 2028-02
The detail behind the label
Rating
Expensive
the big win's payoff against the 2× and 5× lines
Valued like the cheapest
0.3×
the same success, the lowest comparison
Cheap bet at about
$6.70
85% below the price (close, )
Market case
0.9×
an expensive bet if the market forecast holds
The evidence under this - 5 claims
C02facthigh confidence
In-force premium, the annualised premium of every live policy, was $1,434.3M at 30 June 2026, up 32.4% from $1,083.4M a year earlier, with 3,308,666 customers (up 22.9%) paying $433 each on average (up 7.7%). Management calls it the eleventh straight quarter of faster growth.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-01
C04facthigh confidence
The 2026 guide for in-force premium was $1,625M-$1,630M in February, raised to $1,632M-$1,639M in April and held there in July; the July guide puts year-end growth at about 32%, against 32.4% in Q2 and about 33% guided for Q3.
historical · 2026 guidance, February to Julywritten 2026-10-01
C27facthigh confidence
Equity was $499.5M at 30 June 2026, down from $533.6M in December, with $19.0M of goodwill and $8.1M of intangibles. The insurance companies held $810.5M of cash and investments, of which $352.4M is regulatory surplus they cannot pay out without approval.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-01
C32facthigh confidence
Lemonade has never reported a GAAP profitable year: the net loss was $165.5M in 2025 and $138.4M over the four quarters to June 2026.
historical · 2025 and Q3 2025 to Q2 2026written 2026-10-01
C30estimatehigh confidence
At $45.14 on 77,326,718 shares the market value is about $3.49B, 7.4 times tangible equity of $472.4M, 3.6 times revenue of $975.0M and 2.4 times in-force premium.
derivedClose of $45.14 on 2026-09-30 (S10) times shares outstanding at 30 June 2026 (C24); tangible equity is $499.5M less $19.0M goodwill and $8.1M intangibles (C27); revenue from C21's four quarters; in-force premium from C02.
against this
  • Tangible equity is shrinking with each loss, so the multiple rises even on a flat price; it is a weak denominator for a company spending on growth.
  • Against in-force premium, 2.4 times is modest for a book growing 32% if mature margins arrive.
current state · 2026-09-30written 2026-10-01

Where we disagree with the market

The market believes

A growth insurer whose speed-up is ending: the outlook stalled, spending rises again, and the shares have halved since January.

We believe

Growth and the cost edge are real, but old reserves helped the claims cost, and management's profit measure leaves out pay in shares.

The market reads the headline figures, and some of them overstate the business. Revenue grew 79% while what customers pay grew 32%, because Lemonade now hands less to reinsurers. And in the June quarter, releases from earlier years' reserves saved about 7 cents of each dollar of claims cost.

Against us: the same sell-off happened in 2024 and was wrong, and a reported profit in 2027 with claims below 62 cents a dollar before any releases would show the market right to have paid up.

What analysts say, and the evidence
Analysts positive
27%
of 11, 1 Oct
Four months earlier
36%
of 11, 1 Jun
The evidence under this - 9 claims
C04facthigh confidence
The 2026 guide for in-force premium was $1,625M-$1,630M in February, raised to $1,632M-$1,639M in April and held there in July; the July guide puts year-end growth at about 32%, against 32.4% in Q2 and about 33% guided for Q3.
historical · 2026 guidance, February to Julywritten 2026-10-01
C05facthigh confidence
Revenue grew 79% to $294.4M in Q2 2026, faster than the 32% rise in earned premium, because Lemonade now cedes about 20% of premium to reinsurers against about 55% before July 2025: ceded earned premium fell from $139.8M to $80.4M while net earned premium rose from $112.5M to $252.0M.
historical · Q2 2026 against Q2 2025written 2026-10-01
C06inferencemedium confidence
Over the year to 30 September 2026 the share price fell 17.0% while revenue per share rose 47.8%, so the multiple of revenue fell 43.8%; most of that revenue rise was the reinsurance change, not new customers (C05).
derivedThe pack's price-move decomposition (S10) set against the 79% revenue growth on 32% earned-premium growth (C05, C03).
against this

Keeping more premium also keeps more of the profit on it, so some of the revenue rise is real value retained, not only an accounting shift.

historical · 2025-09-29 to 2026-09-30written 2026-10-01
C19estimatemedium confidence
Revisions to earlier years' claim estimates lowered the gross loss ratio by 5, 9, 3 and 7 points in the four quarters to June 2026, about $72M; the gross loss ratio was 60% in Q2 2026 and about 67% without that help, against 64% a year earlier.
derivedPrior period development and gross loss ratios by quarter from the letter's insurance supplement (S04), times gross earned premium each quarter (C03).
against this
  • Management says the releases follow better-than-expected car and home claims, and that today's reserves are set exactly right (S06).
  • Net of reinsurance the 10-Q shows a smaller release, $16.4M in the first half of 2026 against $12.6M a year earlier.
historical · Q3 2025 to Q2 2026written 2026-10-01
C30estimatehigh confidence
At $45.14 on 77,326,718 shares the market value is about $3.49B, 7.4 times tangible equity of $472.4M, 3.6 times revenue of $975.0M and 2.4 times in-force premium.
derivedClose of $45.14 on 2026-09-30 (S10) times shares outstanding at 30 June 2026 (C24); tangible equity is $499.5M less $19.0M goodwill and $8.1M intangibles (C27); revenue from C21's four quarters; in-force premium from C02.
against this
  • Tangible equity is shrinking with each loss, so the multiple rises even on a flat price; it is a weak denominator for a company spending on growth.
  • Against in-force premium, 2.4 times is modest for a book growing 32% if mature margins arrive.
current state · 2026-09-30written 2026-10-01
C31estimatemedium confidence
For a 6% after-tax yield at 21% tax, the market value needs about $265M of pretax profit a year. At a 10% pretax margin on gross earned premium that is about $2.65B of premium, 1.9 times the 2026 guide and 2.5 years of 30% growth; at 8% it is $3.3B, about 3.3 years.
derivedMarket value of $3.49B (C30) times 6% divided by 0.79; gross earned premium guide of $1,376M midpoint (C03). The margins are judgements, not company targets.
against this
  • US P&C insurers earned net income of about 15.7% of net premium in 2025 on NAIC's snapshot (S12), so 10% pretax is not the best case in a good year.
  • Lemonade has tax losses to use, so near-term tax would be well below 21%.
  • The arithmetic ignores dilution of about 4.8% a year (C24), which raises the profit needed per share.
current state · 2026-09-30written 2026-10-01
C33facthigh confidence
The shares fell 23.7% on 29 July 2026, the day of the Q2 results, from $62.11 to $47.38; they had fallen 6.2% after the February print and 14.9% after April's, after rising 29.5% and 34.2% on the August and November 2025 prints. They closed at $45.14 on 30 September, 53.3% below the $96.57 close of 22 January 2026.
historical · 2025-08-05 to 2026-09-30written 2026-10-01
C34factmedium confidence
Coverage after the July print said the full-year in-force premium outlook missed expectations; the sell side splits evenly, five Buy, five Hold and five Sell in the vendor snapshot, and short interest was 15.1% of float at the 15 September settlement.
current state · 2026-09-30written 2026-10-01
C35facthigh confidence
In July 2024 Lemonade reaffirmed rather than raised its full-year guide and said Q3 growth spend would triple; the shares fell 20.3% on 31 July 2024. In-force premium growth then rose every quarter, from 22% to 32%, and the shares went from about $18 to $96.
historical · 2024-07-31 to 2026-01-22written 2026-10-01
06

What could go wrong, and how we would know

The risks

  • Reserves stop helping Releases from earlier years lowered claims costs by about $72M in a year; if they stop or reverse, the loss widens.
  • Vet bills Pet claims rose to 74 cents a dollar from 70 as vet costs climbed, and pet is the largest growth line.
  • Pay in shares Share pay jumped to $24.5M a quarter and the share count grows about 5% a year; management's profit measure leaves it out.
  • One partner, two roles Hannover Re shares the risk and, from 2027, lends the money for growth; both renew on its terms.
  • More risk kept Lemonade now keeps about 82% of each policy, so a bad storm season hits harder despite catastrophe cover.
  • Tesla in car The car maker sells its own insurance with the driving data Lemonade's self-driving pricing depends on.
The evidence under this - 7 claims
C19estimatemedium confidence
Revisions to earlier years' claim estimates lowered the gross loss ratio by 5, 9, 3 and 7 points in the four quarters to June 2026, about $72M; the gross loss ratio was 60% in Q2 2026 and about 67% without that help, against 64% a year earlier.
derivedPrior period development and gross loss ratios by quarter from the letter's insurance supplement (S04), times gross earned premium each quarter (C03).
against this
  • Management says the releases follow better-than-expected car and home claims, and that today's reserves are set exactly right (S06).
  • Net of reinsurance the 10-Q shows a smaller release, $16.4M in the first half of 2026 against $12.6M a year earlier.
historical · Q3 2025 to Q2 2026written 2026-10-01
C20facthigh confidence
The attritional loss ratio, claims excluding catastrophes, handling costs and revisions, was 59% in Q2 2026 against 58% a year earlier and 54% in the two quarters before; pet's gross loss ratio rose to 74% from 70%, which management puts down to vet-cost inflation.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-01
C24facthigh confidence
Share pay was $24.5M in Q2 2026 against $15.4M a year earlier, including $6.5M from multi-year executive awards made in Q1 2026; weighted shares rose 4.8% to 76.98M and 77,326,718 were outstanding at 30 June.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-01
C28facthigh confidence
Hannover Re is both the lead quota-share reinsurer, with MAPFRE, and from 2027 the sole financier of customer-acquisition spend; the reinsurance renews every July for twelve months.
current state · 2026-07-01written 2026-10-01
C16facthigh confidence
Tesla's 2025 10-K says its own insurance, priced on real-time driving behaviour, is available in 13 states; Lemonade's car product prices miles driven on Tesla's Full Self-Driving at half its human-driven rate using the same car's telemetry.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-01
C25facthigh confidence
General Catalyst finances up to 80% of Lemonade's customer-acquisition spend and is repaid from those customers' premiums with a 16% return; $206.4M was outstanding at 30 June 2026 and $12.5M of interest was paid in the first half. From 2027 Hannover Re takes over, up to $250M at the three-year Treasury rate plus 5.8%.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-01
C29facthigh confidence
The July 2026 reinsurance programme cuts the ceded share to about 18% from 20% and adds catastrophe cover of up to $40M per event and $100M in total, including named storms, which the prior programme excluded.
current state · 2026-07-01written 2026-10-01
What we still do not know
  • How Lemonade's claims-handling cost compares on the regulator's own definition, which counts it after reinsurance.
  • How much capital its insurance companies hold above the regulators' minimum: the filings say only that it is enough.
  • How much cheaper Lemonade is than rivals for the same cover; nobody publishes like-for-like prices.
  • Whether self-driving miles really cost half as much in claims: the company says it is too early to publish data.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C09factmedium confidence
Across the US property and casualty industry in 2025, loss adjustment expenses were $86,003M against net earned premium of $958,726M, about 9.0%, on NAIC's year-end snapshot. It mixes commercial lines and counts net of reinsurance, unlike Lemonade's gross 5%.
historical · 2025written 2026-10-01
C27facthigh confidence
Equity was $499.5M at 30 June 2026, down from $533.6M in December, with $19.0M of goodwill and $8.1M of intangibles. The insurance companies held $810.5M of cash and investments, of which $352.4M is regulatory surplus they cannot pay out without approval.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-01
C40management claimlow confidence
Management says it will price more cheaply than rivals in car and accept a lower gross margin to grow gross profit, and that car is what it is most excited about.
against this

Car's gross loss ratio was 61% in Q2 2026 against 61.48% for the industry in 2025 on NAIC data (C13); a price cut on that base thins a margin that is not yet below the industry's.

forwardwritten 2026-10-01
C16facthigh confidence
Tesla's 2025 10-K says its own insurance, priced on real-time driving behaviour, is available in 13 states; Lemonade's car product prices miles driven on Tesla's Full Self-Driving at half its human-driven rate using the same car's telemetry.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-01

What would change our view

  1. Neutral→AttractiveA cheaper price on an unchanged business

    It needs:

    • ○The shares fall to 4.5 times Lemonade's net worth, with growth holding.about $28.44 today, 37% below the last close
  2. Neutral→AttractiveProfit shows up in the reported numbers

    It needs all of:

    • ○Lemonade reports a quarterly profit under standard accounting, from a $43.4M loss in the June quarter.checked at the next results, due by 4 Nov
    • ○Claims fall to 62 cents or less of each dollar earned for a full year, before releases from earlier years.checked at the next results, due by 4 Nov
We would also be wrong if
  • Growth in what customers pay each year falls below 25% for two quarters in a row.
  • Releases from earlier years' reserves turn into additions for two quarters in a row.
  • Management's own profit measure is still negative for 2027.

What is coming

  • 4 November 2026 Q3 2026 results: In-force premium against the $1,537M guide, the loss ratio before reserve releases against 67%, and whether Q4 adjusted EBITDA is still guided positive.
Every dated event ahead
  • 4 November 2026 Q3 2026 results: In-force premium against the $1,537M guide, the loss ratio before reserve releases against 67%, and whether Q4 adjusted EBITDA is still guided positive.
  • 17 November 2026 Investor Day: Whether the tenfold growth aim gets dates and margins, and whether customer-acquisition returns hold near the three-times lifetime value claimed.
  • 1 January 2027 New CFO takes over; Hannover Re begins funding growth spend: Whether one counterparty as reinsurer and lender changes the cost of growth, and whether finance reporting holds through the handover.
  • February 2027 Q4 2026 results and 2027 guidance: Whether 2027 is still guided as the first full year of positive adjusted EBITDA, and how far GAAP stays below it after share pay.
  • July 2027 July 2027 reinsurance renewal: Whether Hannover Re and MAPFRE renew the quota share and catastrophe cover on similar terms, or Lemonade must keep more risk and capital.
Since we wrote this
Written
1 Oct
Price the thesis read
$45.14
30 Sep
  • 5 OctThesis reviewThe bet now names what it ridesThe owner asked that every bet name the macro trend behind it, after BWXT's bet was missing its chief executive's case for nuclear over gas.
  • 4 OctThesis reviewOwner's checklist: revenue streams, cost of growth, management, catalystsThe owner's checklist found the method silent on who runs the company, what growth costs, where the money comes from and what is dated ahead; this pass fills those four blocks from the proxy and filings.
  • 1 OctThesis writtenNeutral, medium convictionFast, low-cost growth, but the price already pays for profits Lemonade has never earned.

Also checked 1 time with nothing new to act on.

Sources 25

Where this came from

Sources - 25

Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.

  1. S01primarycompany filing2026-02-25
    Item 1 products, AI claims handling, reinsurance structure, named competitors, customers per employee, footprint, risk factors
    backsC01C08C10C28C32C39C50C54C55
  2. S02primarycompany filing2026-02-19
    2026 guidance, the 2027 adjusted EBITDA target, autonomous car pricing at half the human rate
    backsC04C16C22
  3. S03primarycompany filing2026-04-29
    raised 2026 guidance for in-force premium, earned premium, revenue and adjusted EBITDA
    backsC04
  4. S04primarycompany filing2026-07-29
    key metrics by quarter since Q2 2024, loss ratios and their breakdown, IFP by product, LAE ratio, reinsurance renewal, guidance, statements and reconciliations
    backsC02C03C04C05C07C08C12C14C15C18C20C21C22C24C26C29C32C35C48C55
  5. S05primarycompany filing2026-08-04
    reinsurance note, reserve roll-forward, financing agreements, regulatory surplus, share count
    backsC05C24C25C27C28C29C42C50C52C54C55
  6. S06primarytranscript2026-07-29
    Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held 2026-07-29
    data/cache/transcripts/LMND-2026Q2.json
    management on gross profit over gross margin, car pricing, reserve releases, pet vet inflation; 7 analyst turns from 4 analysts
    we are not focused on gross margin per se. The metric that we focus on, and we do encourage our investors to focus on as well is gross profit
    backsC15C20C40
  7. S07primarycompany filing2026-06-24
    up to $250M of growth financing from 2027, 80% of spend, repaid from cohort premium at three-year Treasury plus 5.8%
    backsC25C28
  8. S08primarycompany filing2026-07-29
    Bixby to the board, Stead CFO from 1 January 2027
    backsC37
  9. S09primarycompany filing2024-07-30
    guidance reaffirmed, Q3 growth spend about three times the prior year
    backsC35
  10. S10secondaryvendor data2026-10-01
    LMND research pack (FMP market tier, FINRA short interest, headcount), frozen 2026-10-01
    content/LMND/research-pack.json
    close of $45.14 on 2026-09-30, daily bars, price move decomposition, analyst split and its history, short interest, cohort multiples
    backsC33C34C35
  11. S11primaryregulator2026-08-01
    direct written premium, loss ratios and market shares by line and group for 2025: pet, homeowners, private passenger auto, all lines
    6 5032 LEMONADE INC GRP 441,162 354,649 65.66 % 65.66 % 8.07 % 81.40 %
    backsC11C13C17C38C43C46
  12. S12primaryregulator2026-03-31
    industry net earned premium, loss adjustment expense, combined ratio and net income for 2025
    Loss Expenses Incurred 0.3% $86,003 $85,704 $81,885 $75,463 $70,652
    backsC09
  13. S13primaryindustry data2026-06-21
    US pet premium, growth by year, penetration, average premiums by product
    The total premium volume in the U.S., as reported by NAPHIA members and public sources, amounted to about $5.7 billion at year-end 2025.
    backsC12C41
  14. S14primarycompany filing2026-01-29
    Tesla's own insurance, priced on real-time driving behaviour, in 13 states
    backsC16
  15. S15primarycompany filing2026-03-02
    Personal Lines segment, second in US car insurance, direct channel, home bundling
    backsC17
  16. S16primarycompany filing2026-02-13
    pet medical insurance in the US, Canada and Europe; partner distribution
    backsC18
  17. S17primarycompany filing2026-10-01
    37 open-market sales, 24 under 10b5-1 plans covering 86.3% of shares sold; 2 purchases by one director
    backsC36
  18. S19tertiarynews2026-07-31
    the stated objection after the July print, by headline only; the article was not opened
    backsC34
  19. S20primaryindustry data2025-12-17
    the industry body's figure for 2025 homeowners net written premium growth and its outlook of a return to profitability in 2026; read through ir_fetch
    Net written premium (NWP) growth: 11.8% in 2025, slightly below 2024 and 2023 but reflective of continued inflation and loss trends.
    backsC44
  20. S21primaryindustry data2026-01-21
    the industry body and actuarial firm's expected 2025 personal auto net written premium growth, the slowest since 2020; read through ir_fetch
    However, premium growth in this sector has slowed significantly, with net written premium growth expected to land at 3.6 percent - its lowest level since 2020.
    backsC44
  21. S22primaryindustry data2026-06-23
    Big “I” (Independent Insurance Agents & Brokers of America) - Big “I” Releases 2026 Market Share Report Independent Insurance Agents & Brokers of America, from AM Best premium data
    the independent-agent channel's share of US personal lines premium by year, the only published channel split found; read through ir_fetch
    Its share of personal lines continued to grow, at 39.5% in 2025 compared to 39.2% in 2024-continuing its trajectory from 36.7% in 2021.
    backsC45
  22. S23primarycompany filing2026-08-05
    a digital-first car insurer's policies in force, premiums per policy, premiums in force and gross premiums written, Q2 2026 against Q2 2025; read through filing_fetch
    backsC46
  23. S24primarycompany filing2026-07-30
    a digital-first home insurer's gross written premium by line, Q2 2026 against Q2 2025; read through filing_fetch
    backsC47
  24. S25primarycompany filing2025-02-25
    management's account of the November 2024 Investor Day plan to grow the business tenfold, and its pet market growth and penetration figures; read through filing_fetch
    backsC48
  25. S26primarycompany filing2026-04-22
    beneficial ownership as of 9 April 2026, directors' and officers' tenure, the CD&A (no cash bonus, 2025 option and RSU grants), equity plan reserve
    backsC51C52C53
Rendered from content/LMND/thesis.json · thesis reviewed 2026-10-01. This page explains a company; it does not say what to pay, when to buy or how much.