← All thesesTYLNeutralMedium convictionWednesday 28 October 2026עברית

Tyler Technologies

The software company behind thousands of US courts, tax offices, police departments and school districts: the systems local governments keep their records in.

Our viewNeutral Medium conviction
The scores
The profile · 1-4
Growth3/4 →

Revenue grew 9.1% in 2025, close to the 10% the spending series it quotes grows; SaaS growth is largely existing clients moving.

Business quality3/4 →

Not Protected: about 2% of clients leave a year, but AI-native rivals replace legacy permitting in months and the core is untested against them.

Financial position3/4 →

Net debt of about $0.47B is under a year of cash flow, but the $1.44B 2031 convertible was raised partly to fund buybacks.

Execution record3/4 →

Beat its 2023 targets and raised 2026 guidance, but two state projects needed $10.7M of reserves and February's guide disappointed.

Per share capture3/4 ↑

Diluted shares fell 4.7% on cash buybacks, but share pay is 6.5% of revenue and the count rose from 2022 to 2025.

Potential2/4 →

The 2030 plan needs clients to choose cloud moves and AI products to sell; only $816.9M of billed revenue is committed ahead.

Risk profile3/4 →

Thousands of clients and no binary event, but every buyer is a US government bound to public tenders and budgets.

Valuation3/4 ↑

Not Cheap: 25 times guided earnings looks low, but after share pay it is 31 times and needs the 2030 plan's 9% yearly growth.

Evidence quality3/4 →

Results are filed, but retention, the cloud-move rate, market size and the AI threat rest on management's figures or one rival's release.

The Verdict

We rate Tyler Technologies Neutral. The business is solid: governments keep their court, tax and payroll records in its systems, only about 2% leave a year, and its cloud subscriptions still grow about 20% a year. The price is fair: at about 31 times this year's expected profit, once share-based pay is counted as a cost, it is about right if management's 2030 plan arrives, with no cushion if it slips. The view hinges on whether new AI-built rivals stay in simpler jobs like permits and police reports, or start replacing the court and finance systems where Tyler's grip is strongest.

The long caseEvery county still runs its courts, taxes and payroll on software, and Tyler holds the records most of them would have to move to switch.

The evidence under this - 7 claims
C18inferencemedium confidence
Tyler's moat is a switching cost: a county's court records, tax rolls and payroll live in its systems, so leaving means converting decades of data, retraining staff and running a public procurement, which is why about 2% of clients leave a year.
against this
  • GovWell says 80% of its sales replace legacy vendors in a median three months (C29), so in permitting the cost of switching looks lower than this reading implies.
  • Maintenance revenue is falling 4% to 6% a year (C03, C04); some of that is clients leaving rather than moving to Tyler's cloud, and the split is not disclosed.
current state · 2026-10-10written 2026-10-10
C02facthigh confidence
Its customers include about 3,000 counties, 36,000 cities and towns, 12,600 school districts and 40,000 special districts. Client turnover has been about 2% a year, and recurring revenue was $2.0B, 87% of 2025 revenue; annualised recurring revenue was $2.06B at 31 December 2025, up about 11%.
against this
  • The 2% is Tyler's own count; no outside body measures its client turnover.
  • Two state contracts needed $10.7M of loss reserves in 2025 (C25), so not every relationship goes well.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-10
C04facthigh confidence
In Q2 2026 revenue was $645.1M, up 8.2%. SaaS revenue was $230.6M, up 21.7%, the 22nd straight quarter of 20% or more; transaction fees were $223.1M, up 3.5%; maintenance fell 6% to $105.8M. Recurring revenue was 86.7% of the total.
historical · Q2 2026 (quarter to 30 June 2026)written 2026-10-10
C23estimatemedium confidence
At $329.55 the shares cost 25.2 times the $13.075 midpoint of 2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance and 21.5 times 2027 consensus. Non-GAAP EPS leaves out share pay of $3.23 a share before tax; after a 21.7% tax effect that is about $2.53, so EPS after share pay is about $10.55 and the price about 31 times it.
against this
  • Management and analysts price Tyler on non-GAAP EPS, so the 31 figure is stricter than the market's own frame.
  • The tax effect on share pay is estimated from the blended reconciliation, not stated line by line.
forwardwritten 2026-10-10
C24estimatemedium confidence
For the price to fall to 20 times EPS after share pay by 2031 without the shares falling, that EPS must reach $16.48, about 9.3% a year from the $10.55 implied for 2026. Management's 2030 plan, recurring revenue up 10% to 12% a year with a rising margin, would deliver about that.
against this
  • Buybacks shrink the share count, so per-share earnings can grow faster than profit (C34).
  • A software business with 87% recurring revenue has often traded above 20 times, so a lower end multiple may be harsh.
forwardwritten 2026-10-10
C29management claimmedium confidence
GovWell, an AI-based permitting and licensing start-up, raised $25M in May 2026; it says it serves more than 130 municipalities and counties in 34 states, that 80% of its sales directly replace legacy vendors, and that its median sales cycle is three months.
against this

130 clients against more than 91,000 local governments (C14) is small, and it does not name which legacy vendors it replaces.

current state · 2026-05-14written 2026-10-10
C30inferencelow confidence
The AI threat reaches Tyler's simpler modules first: permitting start-ups and Axon's report writing win where little data must move, while courts, tax and ERP need decades of records converted; no evidence was found of an AI-native rival replacing a Tyler court or ERP system.
against this
  • An absence found in a search is not proof of no losses; Tyler does not disclose lost deals.
  • Coverage says governments may build tools themselves with AI (C35), which no search can count.
current state · 2026-10-10written 2026-10-10
01

The company

Every county must keep court cases, property values, tax bills and payroll by rules set in state law. Tyler sells the software that does it: court systems and e-filing, the websites lawyers use to file cases, plus police records, finance and payroll, property tax and school software.

Its buyers include about 3,000 counties, 36,000 cities and towns and 12,600 school districts. In Texas, the state e-filing portal runs on Tyler and carried about 79% of the state's filings. The alternatives are rivals' systems, older software or paper.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C01facthigh confidence
Tyler Technologies sells software and services only to the public sector: court and justice systems, public safety, ERP (finance and payroll), property tax and recording, K-12 school software, permitting, and payments and digital government portals. It reports two segments, Enterprise Software and Platform Technologies.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-10
C02facthigh confidence
Its customers include about 3,000 counties, 36,000 cities and towns, 12,600 school districts and 40,000 special districts. Client turnover has been about 2% a year, and recurring revenue was $2.0B, 87% of 2025 revenue; annualised recurring revenue was $2.06B at 31 December 2025, up about 11%.
against this
  • The 2% is Tyler's own count; no outside body measures its client turnover.
  • Two state contracts needed $10.7M of loss reserves in 2025 (C25), so not every relationship goes well.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-10
C10factmedium confidence
The Texas state e-filing portal, branded as powered by Tyler Technologies, averaged about 46,000 filings and $1.3M of fees a day in late 2023 and early 2024, and carried about 79% of the state's filing volume.
against this
  • The slides carry the programme's own branding, so they are the operator's report to the committee rather than an independent audit.
  • The figures are from 2024 and no later update was found.
current state · 2024-01-31written 2026-10-10
C26facthigh confidence
Tyler's 10-K names its national rivals as Oracle, Infor, SAP, Workday, CentralSquare, Thomson Reuters, Motorola Solutions, Axon and Constellation Software, and says it generally does not rely on patents.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-10

How it makes money

A dollar arrives four ways. Cloud subscriptions, a third of 2025 revenue, are yearly fees billed in advance. Transaction fees, about another third, are charged on online payments and court filings, mostly to the public or lawyers. Maintenance is the yearly fee older clients pay to keep licensed software running, and it shrinks as they move to the cloud. Installation and training make up most of the rest.

The evidence under this - 2 claims
C03facthigh confidence
2025 revenue was $2.33B, up 9.1%. Subscriptions were $1.59B, up 18%: cloud software (SaaS) $777.8M, up 20.6%, and transaction fees $808.4M, up 15.8%. Maintenance on licensed software fell 4% to $445.6M and professional services fell 8% to $242.7M.
historical · 2025 (year to 31 December)written 2026-10-10
C11facthigh confidence
Tyler's filings name the drivers of transaction-fee growth as new clients, higher online payment and e-filing volumes, and price increases by third-party processing partners, in 2025 and again in H1 2026. Transaction fees combine payments, digital government services and e-filing, and no split by service is reported.
historical · 2025 and H1 2026written 2026-10-10
Where the money comes from, stream by stream
StreamShare of sales (2025)How it earns it
SaaS subscriptions33%Cloud versions of court, ERP, tax, public safety and school software, billed yearly in advance on one- to three-year terms.
Transaction fees35%Fees on online payments, digital government services and court e-filing, mostly paid by the public or lawyers per transaction.
Maintenance19%Yearly support and updates for clients still running licensed software on their own servers; shrinking as they move to the cloud.
Professional services10%Installation, data conversion and training, billed by the hour or milestone when a system goes in.
Licences, hardware and other3%One-time software licences and resold hardware such as school bus equipment.

Who runs it

Lynn Moore has run Tyler since 2018, after joining in 1998, and becomes board chair in 2026. Brian Miller has been finance chief since 2005. Directors and officers own about 1.1% of the shares.

Yearly awards pay on profit per share; long-term awards pay on growth in recurring revenue and on the 2027 profit margin. In August the chief executive and operating chief sold shares without a pre-set trading plan, while two directors bought earlier in the year.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C38facthigh confidence
Directors and officers owned 451,051 shares, 1.1%, including options; the CEO held 241,144 including 140,752 options. Vanguard held 13.1% and BlackRock 9.6%.
current state · 2026-03-01written 2026-10-10
C39facthigh confidence
Executive pay is about 80% performance-based: yearly performance shares pay on non-GAAP EPS, 120% earned for 2025; long-term shares pay half on three-year growth in adjusted recurring revenue (full award at 33.1% to 40.5% cumulative) and half on the 2027 adjusted operating margin (full award at 28.5% to 29.5%).
current state · 2026-03-23written 2026-10-10
C40facthigh confidence
In the year to October 2026 insiders made 13 open-market sales of 28,548 shares, none under a 10b5-1 plan: the CEO 9,250 at $372.79 on 28 August and the COO 8,500 at $356.44 on 24 August. Two directors bought: 1,600 shares at $309.91 on 23 February and 610 at $325.08. The bought-to-sold ratio was 0.75 against a 12-quarter median of 0.29.
historical · October 2025 to October 2026written 2026-10-10
02

Why it wins, and who could beat it

Why customers come back

Once a county's records live in Tyler's systems, leaving is hard. It would have to convert decades of cases or tax rolls, retrain staff and run a public tender, and a failed switch stops public services. So about 2% of clients leave a year, and Tyler says it keeps 98%.

The grip is tightest in courts, where management says Tyler dominates. It is looser in permitting: one start-up says most of its sales replace older systems within three months.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C18inferencemedium confidence
Tyler's moat is a switching cost: a county's court records, tax rolls and payroll live in its systems, so leaving means converting decades of data, retraining staff and running a public procurement, which is why about 2% of clients leave a year.
against this
  • GovWell says 80% of its sales replace legacy vendors in a median three months (C29), so in permitting the cost of switching looks lower than this reading implies.
  • Maintenance revenue is falling 4% to 6% a year (C03, C04); some of that is clients leaving rather than moving to Tyler's cloud, and the split is not disclosed.
current state · 2026-10-10written 2026-10-10
C02facthigh confidence
Its customers include about 3,000 counties, 36,000 cities and towns, 12,600 school districts and 40,000 special districts. Client turnover has been about 2% a year, and recurring revenue was $2.0B, 87% of 2025 revenue; annualised recurring revenue was $2.06B at 31 December 2025, up about 11%.
against this
  • The 2% is Tyler's own count; no outside body measures its client turnover.
  • Two state contracts needed $10.7M of loss reserves in 2025 (C25), so not every relationship goes well.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-10
C15management claimmedium confidence
At its June 2026 Investor Day Tyler said state and local government software spending was $44.3B in 2025, growing about 10% a year (a Gartner series it quotes), that it has more than 50,000 installations, and that gross client retention is 98%.
against this
  • The Gartner series is quoted by Tyler and was not read directly; Gartner's report is paid.
  • Retention of 98% is the company's own measure, not checked by anyone outside.
current state · 2026-06-09written 2026-10-10
C33management claimmedium confidence
The CEO said Tyler has much higher market share in courts, where 'we really dominate that market', with ERP and public safety more competitive; over three years court clients on legacy versions fell from 89% to 7%.
against this

No outside body publishes court software shares; Journal Technologies and Thomson Reuters also sell to courts (C27, C26).

current state · 2026-07-30written 2026-10-10
C29management claimmedium confidence
GovWell, an AI-based permitting and licensing start-up, raised $25M in May 2026; it says it serves more than 130 municipalities and counties in 34 states, that 80% of its sales directly replace legacy vendors, and that its median sales cycle is three months.
against this

130 clients against more than 91,000 local governments (C14) is small, and it does not name which legacy vendors it replaces.

current state · 2026-05-14written 2026-10-10

The threat

The new threat is software built around AI. GovWell, a start-up, replaces old permitting systems in months, and Axon sells police AI that drafts reports. Investors also fear governments will write their own tools. So far these win the simpler jobs, where little data must move. Nobody was found replacing a Tyler court or finance system, but Tyler does not report deals it loses.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C29management claimmedium confidence
GovWell, an AI-based permitting and licensing start-up, raised $25M in May 2026; it says it serves more than 130 municipalities and counties in 34 states, that 80% of its sales directly replace legacy vendors, and that its median sales cycle is three months.
against this

130 clients against more than 91,000 local governments (C14) is small, and it does not name which legacy vendors it replaces.

current state · 2026-05-14written 2026-10-10
C28facthigh confidence
Axon sells Axon Records and Draft One, a tool that drafts police reports with AI, alongside its cameras and TASER devices.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-10
C35facthigh confidence
Coverage in July 2026 said the market fears AI models will let governments build their own tools or buy cheaper ones; the shares were then 51% below their February 2025 high.
current state · 2026-07-05written 2026-10-10
C30inferencelow confidence
The AI threat reaches Tyler's simpler modules first: permitting start-ups and Axon's report writing win where little data must move, while courts, tax and ERP need decades of records converted; no evidence was found of an AI-native rival replacing a Tyler court or ERP system.
against this
  • An absence found in a search is not proof of no losses; Tyler does not disclose lost deals.
  • Coverage says governments may build tools themselves with AI (C35), which no search can count.
current state · 2026-10-10written 2026-10-10

The rivals: AXON, DJCO, PAY, ORCL, WDAY, SAP, TRI, MSI, and 2 more that are private, in-house or listed abroad.

Who else does this, rival by rival
TickerRivalWhere it competesHow far alongPriced against it
PrivateAI-native start-ups selling permitting and licensing software, such as GovWellPriced against it: PrivateEnterprise Software: court, public safety, ERP, property tax, K-12 and permitting software, sold as cloud subscriptions or licences with maintenanceOn salePrivate
AXONAxon, with Axon Records and Draft One AI report writingPriced against it: One segment onlyEnterprise Software: court, public safety, ERP, property tax, K-12 and permitting software, sold as cloud subscriptions or licences with maintenanceOn saleOne segment only
DJCOJournal Technologies, Daily Journal's court software businessPriced against it: One segment onlyEnterprise Software: court, public safety, ERP, property tax, K-12 and permitting software, sold as cloud subscriptions or licences with maintenanceOn saleOne segment only
PAYPaymentus, a listed bill-payment platform serving governments among other billersPriced against it: One segment onlyPlatform Technologies: payments, digital government and e-filing feesOn saleOne segment only
ORCL · WDAY · SAPOracle, Workday and SAP, with finance and HR suites sold to every industryPriced against it: One segment onlyEnterprise Software: court, public safety, ERP, property tax, K-12 and permitting software, sold as cloud subscriptions or licences with maintenanceOn saleOne segment only
In-houseGovernments writing their own tools with AI coding assistantsPriced against it: In-houseEnterprise Software: court, public safety, ERP, property tax, K-12 and permitting software, sold as cloud subscriptions or licences with maintenanceAnnouncedIn-house
TRIThomson ReutersPriced against it: One segment only-On saleOne segment only
MSIMotorola SolutionsPriced against it: One segment only-On saleOne segment only
03

How big it could get

How big this could get

The market is every government that keeps records: 91,438 local governments in 2025, a count that has barely moved since 2007. Tyler quotes a research firm putting state and local software spending at $44.3B in 2025, growing about 10% a year. Court filings, which e-filing fees depend on, rose 4% in 2024 to about 70M but remain below their 2012 level.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C14facthigh confidence
The US had 91,438 local governments in 2025: 3,031 counties, 12,535 independent school districts and 40,199 special districts among them. The count has stayed close to 90,000 since 2007.
historical · 2025 census of governmentswritten 2026-10-10
C15management claimmedium confidence
At its June 2026 Investor Day Tyler said state and local government software spending was $44.3B in 2025, growing about 10% a year (a Gartner series it quotes), that it has more than 50,000 installations, and that gross client retention is 98%.
against this
  • The Gartner series is quoted by Tyler and was not read directly; Gartner's report is paid.
  • Retention of 98% is the company's own measure, not checked by anyone outside.
current state · 2026-06-09written 2026-10-10
C12facthigh confidence
US state courts received about 70M filings in 2024, 4% more than in 2023 and 27% fewer than in 2012.
historical · 2024written 2026-10-10
04

The results

The numbers

Is it growing?Slow

Sales grew 8.0% over the twelve months to Sep 2026, about the same pace as the 9.1% in the year to Dec 2025.

Dec 2021: $1.59BDec 2022: $1.85BDec 2023: $1.95BDec 2024: $2.14BDec 2025: $2.33B12 mo to Sep 2026: $2.48B$1.59B$2.48B
Is it profitable?Healthy

Operating margin is 16%, up from 11% in the year to Dec 2023.

Dec 2021: 11%Dec 2022: 12%Dec 2023: 11%Dec 2024: 14%Dec 2025: 15%12 mo to Sep 2026: 16%11%16%
Does growth pay off?Pays off

Running costs take 32¢ of each sales dollar, down from 33¢ in the year to Dec 2021.

Dec 2021: 33¢Dec 2022: 31¢Dec 2023: 33¢Dec 2024: 30¢Dec 2025: 31¢12 mo to Sep 2026: 32¢33¢32¢
Does it earn good returns?Low

Each dollar put into the business earns 8.6% a year after tax, about where it was (6.4%) in the year to Dec 2021.

Dec 2021: 6.4%Dec 2022: 5.2%Dec 2023: 5.1%Dec 2024: 6.8%Dec 2025: 7.0%12 mo to Sep 2026: 8.6%6.4%8.6%
Is it making cash?Strong

It turned 30% of sales into free cash, $741M over the last twelve months.

Dec 2021: $338MDec 2022: $359MDec 2023: $360MDec 2024: $604MDec 2025: $638M12 mo to Sep 2026: $741M$338M$741M
How steady is it?Uneven

Yearly sales growth has ranged from +5.5% to +43% over the last 5 years.

Dec 2021: +43%Dec 2022: +16%Dec 2023: +5.5%Dec 2024: +9.5%Dec 2025: +9.1%+43%+9.1%
Are shares being diluted?Stable

The share count fell 3.6% in 4.8 years, and pay in shares costs 6.4% of sales.

Dec 2021: 42.2MDec 2022: 42.4MDec 2023: 42.8MDec 2024: 43.5MDec 2025: 43.8M12 mo to Sep 2026: 40.7M42.2M40.7M
All the numbers

Filed figures from the company's 10-K and 10-Q, read 2026-10-28. Fiscal years end in December.

Dec 2021Dec 2022Dec 2023Dec 2024Dec 202512 mo to Sep 2026
Size and growth
Sales$1.59B$1.85B$1.95B$2.14B$2.33B$2.48B
Sales growth+43%+16%+5.5%+9.5%+9.1%+8.0%
Profit
Gross margin45%42%44%44%46%48%
Operating margin11%12%11%14%15%16%
Net margin10%8.9%8.5%12%14%14%
What growth costs, per sales dollar
Sales and marketing7.4%7.3%7.7%7.4%6.4%6.3%
General and admin17%14%16%14%14%14%
Pay in shares6.6%5.6%5.6%5.7%6.5%6.4%
Capital spending2.1%1.2%1.1%1.0%0.7%0.7%
Cash
Cash from operations$372M$381M$380M$625M$654M$758M
Free cash flow$338M$359M$360M$604M$638M$741M
Balance sheet
Cash and short-term investments$408M$211M$176M$768M$1.10B$879M
Debt$1.34B$987M$646M$598M$600M-
Net cash−$933M−$777M−$470M$170M$498M-
Returns and shares
Return on capital6.4%5.2%5.1%6.8%7.0%8.6%
Shares (diluted)42.2M42.4M42.8M43.5M43.8M40.7M

What growth costs

Cloud clients cost less to serve than software installed on their own servers, which lets Tyler raise research spending, to 8.8% of revenue in 2025 from 5.5%, while still keeping 15.3 cents of official operating profit per dollar. Share-based pay, about 6.5% of revenue, is a real cost that the company's preferred profit measure leaves out.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C42facthigh confidence
Research and development spending rose from 5.5% to 8.8% of revenue in 2025, partly by moving staff from cost of revenue, and is guided at $245M to $250M for 2026; Tyler's 2030 plan puts it at about 10% of revenue.
historical · 2024 to 2026 guidancewritten 2026-10-10
C36facthigh confidence
Share pay was $151.3M in 2025, 6.5% of revenue, and $156.1M over the year to June 2026. Diluted shares rose from 42.40M in 2022 to 43.81M in 2025 before the 2026 buybacks.
historical · 2022 to Q2 2026written 2026-10-10
C08facthigh confidence
In 2025 GAAP operating income was $357.7M, a 15.3% margin, and non-GAAP operating income $606.7M. GAAP EPS was $7.20 against $6.05 in 2024 and non-GAAP EPS $11.31 against $9.55. Free cash flow was $620.8M, 26.6% of revenue, and share pay was $151.3M.
historical · 2025 (year to 31 December)written 2026-10-10

The last report (29 Jul)

Quarter ended June 2026, filed figures.

8%
Sales growth
against the same quarter a year earlier
5.1%
Growth from the quarter before
against 6.7% the quarter before that
15¢
Operating profit
per dollar of sales

Q3 2026 met every sign we set. Cloud revenue grew 21.2%, the 23rd quarter in a row above 20%, and transaction fees grew 9.5%, or 14.2% leaving out the ended Texas contract. Free cash flow was a record $277M.

The profit forecast for the year stayed at $12.95 to $13.20 a share, while the top of the revenue range came down $10M to $2.565B. Tyler bought back 8.5% of its shares this year, which lifts per-share profit.

What it did to the thesisIt supported the business half of the view: cloud growth and the forecast held. It settled nothing on the AI question or the price, so the view stays Neutral until the 2027 forecast shows cloud growth holding at its recent pace.

The quarter in detail

Sales growth from the previous quarter, filed figures.

Earnings per share $3.08 against $3.05 expected; $2.23 as filed, the gap being what the company adds back.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C49facthigh confidence
In Q3 2026 Tyler's revenue was $647.6M, up 8.7%; SaaS revenue was $242.2M, up 21.2%; transaction revenue was $220.4M, up 9.5% (14.2% excluding the Texas payments contract wind-down); annualised recurring revenue was $2.28B, up 11.0%; non-GAAP EPS was $3.52, up 10.0%; and free cash flow was a quarterly record of $277.0M.
against this
  • The 14.2% figure excluding Texas is the company's own adjustment in the release's quote from its finance chief; the filed transaction growth is 9.5%.
  • Tyler bought back 1,148,389 shares for about $379M in the quarter, so per-share growth of 10.0% leans partly on a shrinking share count.
historical · Q3 2026 (quarter to 30 September 2026)written 2026-10-28
C06management claimmedium confidence
2026 guidance as of 28 October: revenue $2.535B to $2.565B (the July range was $2.535B to $2.575B), non-GAAP EPS $12.95 to $13.20 (first given in February as $12.40 to $12.65), free cash flow margin 26% to 28%. February's guide also gave SaaS growth of 20.5% to 22.5% and transaction growth of 5% to 7%, or 10% to 12% excluding Texas; Q3 transactions grew 14.2% excluding Texas (C49).
against this
  • Q2 transaction fees grew 3.5% reported (C04), and the ex-Texas figure is the CFO's on the call, not a filed number.
  • The raised EPS guide partly reflects buybacks: February assumed 44.0M diluted shares and Q2 had 41.85M (C34).
  1. 2026-10-28editedthe October release held EPS and free cash flow guidance and trimmed the top of the revenue range by $10M
forwardwritten 2026-10-10
C04facthigh confidence
In Q2 2026 revenue was $645.1M, up 8.2%. SaaS revenue was $230.6M, up 21.7%, the 22nd straight quarter of 20% or more; transaction fees were $223.1M, up 3.5%; maintenance fell 6% to $105.8M. Recurring revenue was 86.7% of the total.
historical · Q2 2026 (quarter to 30 June 2026)written 2026-10-10
C05facthigh confidence
A state payment-processing contract wound down in Q4 2025. It cut Q2 2026 transaction revenue by about $12.5M and merchant fees by $11.0M, so it carried almost no profit; the release and February guidance name it as the Texas payments contract.
historical · Q2 2026 (quarter to 30 June 2026)written 2026-10-10
What management did with the money

Tyler has turned to buying back its own shares: about $755M in H1 2026, cutting the share count about 5% in a year, with $1.4B more approved. It paid cash for small companies, including one that records courtroom audio. Part of the money came from a $1.44B low-interest bond that turns into shares above $405.94.

Insiders in 2026Q3: 3 purchases and 4 sales, from their Form 4 filings.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C34facthigh confidence
Tyler bought back 1,622,762 shares for about $505M in Q2 2026 and $755M in H1 2026, after $175M in 2025. Shares outstanding were 40,952,274 on 27 July 2026, and diluted shares averaged 41.85M in Q2 against 43.93M a year earlier. Authorisations of $1.0B and a further $1.5B left $1.416B on 15 September, with a plan to buy up to $260M by 29 October.
historical · 2025 to September 2026written 2026-10-10
C41facthigh confidence
Tyler bought For The Record, which records and manages courtroom audio and video, for about $212.7M in cash on 14 April 2026, and CloudGavel (electronic warrants) and Edulink (K-12 software) for cash in late 2025; acquisitions added $8.1M to Q2 2026 subscription revenue.
historical · Q4 2025 to Q2 2026written 2026-10-10
C37facthigh confidence
At 30 September 2026 Tyler held $788.2M of cash and $91.2M of short-term investments against $1.4375B of 0.50% convertible notes due 2031, which convert at $405.94 a share with a capped call to $655.77 and cannot be redeemed before 20 July 2029. The $600M 2026 notes were repaid in cash in March 2026.
  1. 2026-10-28editedthe Q3 release gives the balance sheet at 30 September 2026
current state · 2026-09-30written 2026-10-10
05

The price, and where we disagree

In short. Fair. The price pays for management's plan to 2030 working, once share-based pay is counted as the cost it is, and little beyond it.

Share price
$329.55
close,
Price for each $1 of yearly profit
43.2
its 6-year normal 91.5

The shares are 37% below their high of the past year. The whole fall came from investors paying less for each dollar of sales; sales per share rose 13.6%. It happened twice on the same worry: in February, after AI was raised on the results call, and in June, after Tyler raised its 2030 targets.

On 28 October Tyler reported Q3 2026: cloud growth of 21.2% and the year's forecast held, which says the business is unaffected so far. The next check is the 2027 forecast in February.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C19facthigh confidence
The shares closed at $329.55 on 9 October 2026, 37% below the 52-week high of $524.43 and 36.3% lower than a year earlier.
current state · 2026-10-09written 2026-10-10
C20facthigh confidence
Over the year to 9 October 2026 revenue per diluted share rose 13.6% and the diluted share count fell 4.7%, while the price paid for each dollar of yearly sales per share fell 43.9%, from 10.1 to 5.7.
historical · 252 sessions to 9 October 2026written 2026-10-10
C45facthigh confidence
On 12 February 2026, the day after Q4 2025 results and 2026 guidance, the shares fell 15.4% from $339.25 to $287.04; Q4 revenue of $575.2M was 2.7% below the analyst estimate, and on the call an analyst cited investor concerns on AI disruption to software. In January the shares had already fallen 18.6%, from $453.95 to $369.40, with no results out.
historical · January to February 2026written 2026-10-10
C46facthigh confidence
The shares reached a low of $275.27 on 22 June 2026, two weeks after the Investor Day raised the 2030 margin targets, and then rose to $329.55 by 9 October.
historical · June to October 2026written 2026-10-10
C49facthigh confidence
In Q3 2026 Tyler's revenue was $647.6M, up 8.7%; SaaS revenue was $242.2M, up 21.2%; transaction revenue was $220.4M, up 9.5% (14.2% excluding the Texas payments contract wind-down); annualised recurring revenue was $2.28B, up 11.0%; non-GAAP EPS was $3.52, up 10.0%; and free cash flow was a quarterly record of $277.0M.
against this
  • The 14.2% figure excluding Texas is the company's own adjustment in the release's quote from its finance chief; the filed transaction growth is 9.5%.
  • Tyler bought back 1,148,389 shares for about $379M in the quarter, so per-share growth of 10.0% leans partly on a shrinking share count.
historical · Q3 2026 (quarter to 30 September 2026)written 2026-10-28
How we read the multiple

On profit before share-based pay, the measure Tyler and analysts use, a buyer pays about 25 times this year's expected profit. Counting share pay as a cost, about 31 times.

  1. A common rule of thumb: a mature software company settles near 20 times profit.
  2. At 20 times, today's price needs about $16.48 a share of profit after share pay by 2031.
  3. From about $10.55 this year, that is about 9.3% a year.
  4. Management's 2030 plan, recurring revenue up 10% to 12% a year with wider margins, would deliver about that.

Against its own history. Investors pay far less than the company's own normal, which says they now doubt the growth will last, not that the business has shrunk.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C23estimatemedium confidence
At $329.55 the shares cost 25.2 times the $13.075 midpoint of 2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance and 21.5 times 2027 consensus. Non-GAAP EPS leaves out share pay of $3.23 a share before tax; after a 21.7% tax effect that is about $2.53, so EPS after share pay is about $10.55 and the price about 31 times it.
against this
  • Management and analysts price Tyler on non-GAAP EPS, so the 31 figure is stricter than the market's own frame.
  • The tax effect on share pay is estimated from the blended reconciliation, not stated line by line.
forwardwritten 2026-10-10
C24estimatemedium confidence
For the price to fall to 20 times EPS after share pay by 2031 without the shares falling, that EPS must reach $16.48, about 9.3% a year from the $10.55 implied for 2026. Management's 2030 plan, recurring revenue up 10% to 12% a year with a rising margin, would deliver about that.
against this
  • Buybacks shrink the share count, so per-share earnings can grow faster than profit (C34).
  • A software business with 87% recurring revenue has often traded above 20 times, so a lower end multiple may be harsh.
forwardwritten 2026-10-10
C16management claimmedium confidence
Tyler's 2030 targets: recurring revenue of $3.3B to $3.4B and total revenue of $3.6B to $3.7B, more than 90% recurring, recurring revenue growing 10% to 12% a year without acquisitions, a non-GAAP operating margin management calls 'mid 30s', and free cash flow of $1.1B to $1.2B.
against this
  • 2025 revenue was $2.33B (C03), so the plan needs about 9% a year to 2030 with no slip.
  • The 2023 Investor Day total revenue target of $3.6B to $3.8B was narrowed to $3.6B to $3.7B at the top end.
forwardwritten 2026-10-10
C21facthigh confidence
Analysts expect profit of $13.08 a share for 2026 (14 analysts), $15.34 for 2027 and $17.39 for 2028 (3 analysts). The vendor counts 24 buy, 13 hold and no sell ratings; the dated series shows 79.2% positive of 24 on 1 October, down 3.4 points since 1 September, and the average price target fell 16.2%.
current state · 2026-10-01written 2026-10-10
Priced against its rivals

None of the listed rivals above sells the same thing to the same buyers as a large part of what it does. A price comparison needs at least two, so the price is judged against its own history instead.

Private or foreign rivals that cannot be priced: Infor, CentralSquare Technologies, Constellation Software, Inc.

Where we disagree with the market

The market believes

A strong government software franchise that AI may hollow out, so it deserves a much lower price than before.

We believe

The AI threat is real but so far reaches only simpler products; the core is holding, and the price reflects the plan, no more.

The evidence so far: AI rivals win permits and police reports, while cloud revenue in the core still grows over 20% and clients leave at about 2% a year.

The evidence against us: a start-up says most of its sales replace older systems within three months. If that speed reaches court and finance systems, the 2% would not hold, and today's price would be too high.

What analysts say, and the evidence
Analysts positive
79%
of 24, 1 Oct
Four months earlier
83%
of 23, 1 Jun
The evidence under this - 6 claims
C35facthigh confidence
Coverage in July 2026 said the market fears AI models will let governments build their own tools or buy cheaper ones; the shares were then 51% below their February 2025 high.
current state · 2026-07-05written 2026-10-10
C29management claimmedium confidence
GovWell, an AI-based permitting and licensing start-up, raised $25M in May 2026; it says it serves more than 130 municipalities and counties in 34 states, that 80% of its sales directly replace legacy vendors, and that its median sales cycle is three months.
against this

130 clients against more than 91,000 local governments (C14) is small, and it does not name which legacy vendors it replaces.

current state · 2026-05-14written 2026-10-10
C30inferencelow confidence
The AI threat reaches Tyler's simpler modules first: permitting start-ups and Axon's report writing win where little data must move, while courts, tax and ERP need decades of records converted; no evidence was found of an AI-native rival replacing a Tyler court or ERP system.
against this
  • An absence found in a search is not proof of no losses; Tyler does not disclose lost deals.
  • Coverage says governments may build tools themselves with AI (C35), which no search can count.
current state · 2026-10-10written 2026-10-10
C04facthigh confidence
In Q2 2026 revenue was $645.1M, up 8.2%. SaaS revenue was $230.6M, up 21.7%, the 22nd straight quarter of 20% or more; transaction fees were $223.1M, up 3.5%; maintenance fell 6% to $105.8M. Recurring revenue was 86.7% of the total.
historical · Q2 2026 (quarter to 30 June 2026)written 2026-10-10
C02facthigh confidence
Its customers include about 3,000 counties, 36,000 cities and towns, 12,600 school districts and 40,000 special districts. Client turnover has been about 2% a year, and recurring revenue was $2.0B, 87% of 2025 revenue; annualised recurring revenue was $2.06B at 31 December 2025, up about 11%.
against this
  • The 2% is Tyler's own count; no outside body measures its client turnover.
  • Two state contracts needed $10.7M of loss reserves in 2025 (C25), so not every relationship goes well.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-10
C18inferencemedium confidence
Tyler's moat is a switching cost: a county's court records, tax rolls and payroll live in its systems, so leaving means converting decades of data, retraining staff and running a public procurement, which is why about 2% of clients leave a year.
against this
  • GovWell says 80% of its sales replace legacy vendors in a median three months (C29), so in permitting the cost of switching looks lower than this reading implies.
  • Maintenance revenue is falling 4% to 6% a year (C03, C04); some of that is clients leaving rather than moving to Tyler's cloud, and the split is not disclosed.
current state · 2026-10-10written 2026-10-10
06

What could go wrong, and how we would know

The risks

  • AI rivals move up. If AI-built systems start replacing court, tax or finance software, clients would leave faster than 2% a year and cloud moves could become open tenders.
  • Cloud moves slow. The 2030 plan needs most older clients to move to the cloud by choice; tight budgets or reluctance could push that past 2030.
  • Projects go wrong. Installing government systems is hard: two state contracts needed $10.7M of loss provisions in 2025.
  • Share pay is a cost. Share-based pay is about 6.5% of revenue, and the profit measure the company and analysts use leaves it out.
  • One kind of customer. Every buyer is a US government bound by public tenders and budgets, so a broad squeeze on local budgets would slow new sales.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
C30inferencelow confidence
The AI threat reaches Tyler's simpler modules first: permitting start-ups and Axon's report writing win where little data must move, while courts, tax and ERP need decades of records converted; no evidence was found of an AI-native rival replacing a Tyler court or ERP system.
against this
  • An absence found in a search is not proof of no losses; Tyler does not disclose lost deals.
  • Coverage says governments may build tools themselves with AI (C35), which no search can count.
current state · 2026-10-10written 2026-10-10
C17management claimmedium confidence
Tyler says 30% of its on-premises clients had moved to its cloud by 2025 and targets 85% by 2030; a move lifts that client's recurring revenue about 1.7 times; on-premises maintenance was still 22% of recurring software revenue in 2025; and it expects about $500M of new recurring revenue from moves in 2026 to 2030.
against this
  • The 10-Q credits SaaS growth to new clients and expansions as well as conversions, so moves are not the only source (C04).
  • Management plans 'disincentives' for clients who stay on-premises, which is pressure on clients rather than proof of demand (C43).
forwardwritten 2026-10-10
C25facthigh confidence
In 2025 Tyler took about $10.7M of loss reserves on two state government contracts, the main reason professional services revenue fell 8% and Platform Technologies operating income fell 9%.
historical · 2025 (year to 31 December)written 2026-10-10
C36facthigh confidence
Share pay was $151.3M in 2025, 6.5% of revenue, and $156.1M over the year to June 2026. Diluted shares rose from 42.40M in 2022 to 43.81M in 2025 before the 2026 buybacks.
historical · 2022 to Q2 2026written 2026-10-10
C02facthigh confidence
Its customers include about 3,000 counties, 36,000 cities and towns, 12,600 school districts and 40,000 special districts. Client turnover has been about 2% a year, and recurring revenue was $2.0B, 87% of 2025 revenue; annualised recurring revenue was $2.06B at 31 December 2025, up about 11%.
against this
  • The 2% is Tyler's own count; no outside body measures its client turnover.
  • Two state contracts needed $10.7M of loss reserves in 2025 (C25), so not every relationship goes well.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-10
What we still do not know
  • How many clients leaving Tyler's older software go to rivals rather than to its cloud; Tyler reports how many it keeps, not where leavers go.
  • How much revenue e-filing brings; Tyler names it as a driver of fee growth but never gives the figure.
  • How much AI products will add; management says they are still a very small part of new contracts.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C15management claimmedium confidence
At its June 2026 Investor Day Tyler said state and local government software spending was $44.3B in 2025, growing about 10% a year (a Gartner series it quotes), that it has more than 50,000 installations, and that gross client retention is 98%.
against this
  • The Gartner series is quoted by Tyler and was not read directly; Gartner's report is paid.
  • Retention of 98% is the company's own measure, not checked by anyone outside.
current state · 2026-06-09written 2026-10-10
C11facthigh confidence
Tyler's filings name the drivers of transaction-fee growth as new clients, higher online payment and e-filing volumes, and price increases by third-party processing partners, in 2025 and again in H1 2026. Transaction fees combine payments, digital government services and e-filing, and no split by service is reported.
historical · 2025 and H1 2026written 2026-10-10
C31management claimmedium confidence
Tyler's CFO said the direct AI products are still 'a real small percentage' of new contract value and should become meaningful in about 12 to 18 months.
against this

No AI revenue figure is disclosed, so the claim cannot be checked until it is.

forwardwritten 2026-10-10

What would change our view

  1. Neutral→AttractiveA price that pays for less than the plan

    It needs:

    • ○The shares fall to 17 times next year's expected profit per share, from about 21.5 today.about $285.36 today, 13% below the last close
  2. Neutral→AttractiveCloud moves outrun the rivals

    It needs all of:

    • ○Tyler reports 45% or more of its older on-premises clients moved to its cloud, up from 30%.checked at the next results
    • ○Tyler's 2027 forecast calls for cloud revenue to grow 20% or more.watched as it happens
  3. Neutral→UnattractiveThe AI threat reaches the core

    It needs any of:

    • ○Cloud revenue growth falls below 18% in a quarter.checked at the next results
    • ○Tyler loses a statewide court or e-filing system to another company.watched as it happens
We would also be wrong if
  • Tyler reports keeping fewer than 97% of its clients a year.
  • Tyler's 2027 forecast puts free cash flow below 26% of revenue.

What is coming

  • 28 October 2026 Q3 2026 results: Whether SaaS growth stays above 20%, transactions excluding Texas near 10%, and 2026 guidance holds.
Every dated event ahead
  • 28 October 2026 Q3 2026 results: Whether SaaS growth stays above 20%, transactions excluding Texas near 10%, and 2026 guidance holds.
  • 17 February 2027 Q4 2026 results and 2027 guidance: Next year's SaaS growth, margin and EPS against the $15.34 consensus, and how many clients moved to the cloud.
  • 31 December 2027 First cloud-version pilots: Whether one-version cloud pilots run as planned and AI products start adding revenue.
Since we wrote this
Written
10 Oct
Price the thesis read
$329.55
9 Oct
  • 28 OctEarningsCloud revenue grew 21.2% and the profit guide heldThe quarter met every sign of the test; the 2027 guide and the price decide the next step.
  • 10 OctThesis writtenNeutral, medium convictionA sticky government software franchise still growing its cloud business, at a price that already pays for its 2030 plan after a fall driven by AI fears.

Also checked 1 time with nothing new to act on.

Sources 21

Where this came from

Sources - 21

Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.

  1. S01primarycompany filing2026-02-18
    products, customers, client turnover, recurring revenue, competitors, transaction-fee drivers, loss reserves, acquisitions, risk factors and remaining performance obligations
    backsC01C02C03C08C11C13C18C25C26C34C36C41C42
  2. S02primarycompany filing2026-02-11
    2025 revenue by type, GAAP and non-GAAP earnings, free cash flow and the 2026 guidance with its GAAP reconciliation
    backsC03C05C06C08C23C24C36C47
  3. S03primarycompany filing2026-07-29
    Q2 2026 revenue by type, earnings, free cash flow, share pay and the raised 2026 guidance
    backsC04C06C09C23C42
  4. S04primarycompany filing2026-07-29
    segment results, the state payments contract wind-down, balance sheet, convertible notes, buybacks, acquisitions and deferred revenue
    backsC01C04C05C07C11C17C20C34C36C37C41C44
  5. S05primarytranscript2026-07-30
    Second quarter 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held 2026-07-30
    data/cache/transcripts/TYL-2026Q2.json
    transaction growth excluding Texas, AI revenue timing, court market position, version consolidation and buyback priority
    The direct sort of AI stuff that we've talked about is still a real small percentage of the total ACV.
    backsC06C30C31C32C33C43
  6. S06primarytranscript2026-02-12
    Fourth quarter 2025 earnings call transcript (FMP), held 2026-02-12
    data/cache/transcripts/TYL-2025Q4.json
    the analyst question on AI disruption and management's answer on barriers to entry
    Lynn, given the state of investor concerns on AI disruption to software these days, it would be great if you could talk about your barriers to entry
    backsC45
  7. S07primarycompany filing2026-03-23
    officers and their tenure, share ownership, and the bonus and performance-share design
    backsC38C39
  8. S08primarycompany release2026-06-09
    2030 targets, the flip programme and its 1.7x uplift, gross retention, installed base and the Gartner spending series it quotes
    Converting Maintenance to SaaS Increases Recurring Revenue by ~1.7x
    backsC15C16C17C18C24C42C47
  9. S09primarygovernment data2024-05-17
    eFileTexas status update to the Texas Judicial Committee on Information Technology, May 17, 2024 Texas Judicial Committee on Information Technology (meeting materials of the state e-filing programme)
    daily filings and fees on the Texas state e-filing portal, its share of the state's filing volume, and that Tyler powers it
    Avg ~46K filings and ~$1.3M fees processed daily
    backsC10C13C18
  10. S10primarygovernment data2025-12-01
    the count of US local governments by type in 2025
    In 2025, the total number of local governments increased to 91,438.
    backsC14
  11. S11primaryindustry data2026-10-10
    total state court filings in 2024 and their change since 2012
    70M 2024 state court filings 4% change from 2023 -27% change from 2012
    backsC12C13
  12. S12primaryother2026-05-14
    Insight Partners: GovWell raises $25M Series A Insight Partners (GovWell's lead investor)
    GovWell's client count, replacement share and sales cycle
    Eighty percent of sales are direct replacements of legacy vendors, with a median sales cycle of just three months.
    backsC29C30
  13. S13primarycompany filing2026-02-24
    Axon's records and AI report-writing products sold to police
    backsC28C30
  14. S14primarycompany filing2025-12-29
    Journal Technologies' court case management and e-filing business
    backsC27
  15. S15secondarynews2026-07-05
    a statement of the market's AI worry about Tyler
    the market is worried that large language models will allow government agencies to build custom tools that can do what its products do, or adopt cheaper alternatives.
    backsC35
  16. S16secondaryvendor data2026-10-10
    Research pack frozen beside this thesis, 2026-10-10
    content/TYL/research-pack.json
    the 9 October close, the 252-day return and its decomposition, estimates, the rating split and its history, price-target drift, insider statistics and FINRA short interest
    backsC19C20C21C22C23C24C40C45
  17. S17secondaryvendor data2026-10-10
    daily closes around each results date and the 2026 low
    backsC45C46
  18. S18primarycompany filing2026-10-02
    each open-market insider sale and purchase and whether it was under a 10b5-1 plan
    backsC40
  19. S19primarycompany filing2026-09-15
    the remaining buyback authorisation and the 10b5-1 repurchase plan
    backsC34
  20. S20primarycompany filing2026-02-24
    Paymentus Holdings Form 10-K for 2025 Paymentus Holdings, Inc.
    Paymentus's bill-payment platform and the industries it serves, government among them
    backsC48
  21. S21primarycompany filing2026-10-28
    third-quarter revenue by line, SaaS and transaction growth including the figure excluding the Texas contract, the 2026 guidance, the balance sheet at 30 September and the repurchases
    backsC06C37C44C49
Rendered from content/TYL/thesis.json · thesis reviewed 2026-10-28. This page explains a company; it does not say what to pay, when to buy or how much.