NioCorp Developments
A company with one unbuilt mine in Nebraska, planning to dig up niobium, scandium and rare earths: metals the United States now imports.
Our viewNeutral Medium conviction
The scores
The profile · 1-4
Growthn/a →
Pre-revenue. No sales in any of the five fiscal years to June 2025 and none since; the case rests on financial position, potential and risk.
Business quality2/4 →
The deposit is genuinely scarce, but every one of the eight products is a commodity bought on price from suppliers who already ship.
Financial position2/4 ↑
Net cash of $415.0M and no debt, but the plan needs $1.85B that has not been raised and a loan nobody has committed to.
Execution record2/4 →
The 2022 study promised production in 2025; construction has not started, capital rose 62%, and the loan application is three years old.
Per share capture1/4 ↓
Shares rose 2.48 times in nine months and the equity third of construction is still to come; nothing rules out the same again.
Potential2/4 →
The prize is real but several independent things must go right, and the largest one is a scandium market roughly twice today's world consumption.
Risk profile2/4 →
One unbuilt asset, one jurisdiction, fourteen employees, and a financing decision by one federal lender that resolves in a single step.
Valuation3/4 ↑
About $0.036 for each dollar of study value is undemanding, but the study is one price assumption away from nothing.
Evidence quality3/4 ↑
Filings and USGS carry the argument, and the study is now a filed qualified-person report, but its scandium price rests on one consultant's revised forecast.
The bet · 2-3 years
Priced for success
No upside the evidence defends · if it fails you keep about 48%.
The Verdict
We rate NioCorp neutral. It is a small company with cash and a Nebraska mine that has never been built, and as a business it is weak: no sales, no loan to build. The price is a small bet, a few cents for each dollar its own study says the mine is worth, so it is fair. As a bet it is fragile: no sales can arrive within three years, and if it fails shareholders keep shrinking cash. We think the discount is right because the study leans on scandium, a metal the world barely uses, at a price one forecaster raised sharply, with no buyer signed.
The long caseGovernments want critical minerals mined outside China, and this would be America's only niobium mine; it works only if the mine is financed and built.
The evidence under this - 8 claims
C02facthigh confidence
NioCorp had fourteen full-time employees and four contract employees at 30 June 2026, against seven and one a year earlier, and retains outside consultants for specialised work.
sourceNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026primaryNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2025primary
- 2026-09-27editedThe FY2026 annual report gives the 30 June 2026 headcount: fourteen full-time and four contract employees, double a year earlier.
C17facthigh confidence
Cash and cash equivalents were $415.0M at 30 June 2026 with working capital of $402.3M, against total liabilities of $37.1M - $25.2M of it warrant and earnout liabilities carried at fair value - and no borrowings. The company plans to spend $65M to $75M over the next twelve months.
- 2026-09-27editedRe-sourced to the audited 30 June 2026 balance sheet in the FY2026 annual report.
C23estimatemedium confidence
At $3.54 the whole company is worth about $516.3M; less $415.0M of cash that leaves about $101.3M of enterprise value against $2.80B of the study's after-tax value attributable to NioCorp's 81.33% of Elk Creek Resources - about 3.6 cents on the dollar, down from 8.4 cents at the $4.47 the thesis was struck against.
derivedStruck on the 2026-09-25 close of $3.54 (the 2026-09-24 close was the same). 145,849,630 shares on the 25 September 2026 cover of the FY2026 annual report times $3.54 is $516.3M. Cash and cash equivalents of $415.0M at 30 June 2026 with no borrowings (C17), so enterprise value is $101.3M. The filed study's after-tax value of $3,441M (C03) times the 81.33% of Elk Creek Resources the annual report's subsidiary table gives (C24) is $2,798.6M; $101.3M divided by $2,798.6M is 3.6%. At the thesis the same arithmetic gave $231.6M against $2,767M, 8.4%. The Class B shares exchangeable into NioCorp stock are excluded from both sides.
against this
- The denominator is a pre-feasibility study, and 38% of the revenue behind it is scandium priced 5.4 times the observed 2025 market on one consultant's revised forecast (C04, C05, C06, C43).
- The numerator ignores the equity still to be raised: funding the intended equity third of the capital cost at today's price would roughly double the share count (C25).
- The study's value is struck at an 8% discount rate on a single unbuilt underground mine with an unproven rare-earth circuit - a rate that assumes construction and commissioning risk away (C36).
- 2026-09-25editedre-struck on the 2026-09-24 close after an 18.2% price decline since the thesis; cash and the study's value are unchanged
- 2026-09-26editedThe basis still showed the arithmetic at $4.47 after the claim was re-struck at $3.54 on 2026-09-25; it now shows the $3.54 arithmetic and names both bases for the fall: 20.8% from the $4.47 pack close of 2026-08-25 the figures were struck at, 18.2% from the $4.33 close of 2026-08-26, the thesis date.
- 2026-09-27editedRe-struck on the 30 June 2026 balance sheet, the 25 September 2026 cover share count and the 81.33% stake the FY2026 annual report gives, at the unchanged $3.54 close of 2026-09-25.
C09facthigh confidence
USGS estimated global consumption of scandium oxide at 60 tonnes in 2025, global production at about 80 tonnes and global capacity at over 90 tonnes a year, all produced as a byproduct of nickel and titanium process streams, tailings and residues.
C42estimatemedium confidence
The entire world scandium oxide market was worth roughly $38M in 2025 - 60 tonnes of consumption at $640 a kilogram - while the study's scandium line alone averages $358M a year.
derived60 tonnes (C09) is 60,000 kilograms; at the $640 a kilogram USGS reports for 2025 (C06, the price series quoted at S13) that is $38.4M. The study's scandium revenue of $14,331M (C04) over 40 years averages $358M a year. The two figures are on different bases - one is today's market at today's price, the other a forty-year average at an assumed price - and the point of putting them side by side is the size of the gap the study needs the market to close, not that one is a forecast of the other.
against this
- USGS revised the market up sharply in one year - consumption from 30 to 40 tonnes to 60, production from 40 to 80 - so the base is moving fast (C34).
- A new low-cost supplier can create its own market: scandium is expensive partly because it is scarce, and aluminium-scandium alloy uses that are uneconomic at $3,446 a kilogram may not be at a fraction of it. That is the company's own case, and it is the reverse of the arithmetic above.
- The value comparison uses the oxide price; the company intends to sell master alloy as well, which carries a different price (C41).
C43facthigh confidence
The filed report names OnG Commodities as the independent scandium market consultant. OnG's August 2025 forecast priced NioCorp's scandium at $1,500 to $2,500 a kilogram for 2030 to 2035; its June 2026 revision, driven by fuel-cell demand from AI data centres, raised it to $3,250 through 2036, and the study's first twelve years use that $3,250.
against this
- OnG's own estimate of the 2025 price is about $800 a kilogram outside China, and USGS reports $640 (C06).
- OnG writes that there are no bankable scandium offtakes in sight, and that a large downturn in AI capital spending would drastically reduce scandium demand and its price outlook (C45).
- The years from thirteen onward are priced at $3,501 a kilogram, beyond the end of OnG's forecast, and the report's price table cites NioCorp alongside OnG as its source.
C37facthigh confidence
The 2022 feasibility study assumed a four-year pre-production period and commercial production in 2025. At 30 June 2026 only the portal was being built - $5.6M spent of a $44.6M budget - and the 35-month construction clock in the 2026 study starts only once financing lets the company authorise the full build.
sourceNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026primaryS-K 1300 technical report summary for the 2026 Elk Creek…primaryNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2025primary
- 2026-09-27editedRe-sourced to the FY2026 annual report: portal construction began in February 2026; main construction awaits financing.
C22management claimhigh confidence
Management expects to fund the $1.85B of upfront capital with about 65% debt and 35% equity, and says it has not obtained a commitment for any portion of the debt. It also has to fund costs outside that estimate: financing fees, interest during construction, start-up working capital, reclamation assurance, overhead until production and any overrun beyond the contingency.
sourceNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026primaryNioCorp Form 10-Q, quarter ended 31 March 2026primary
against this
- The debt in question is the EXIM loan, applied for in June 2023 and still uncommitted three years later (C21).
- The same filing says future equity financings will likely be completed at a discount to the market price and will likely be dilutive, and that there is significant uncertainty that any additional financing could be secured.
- Every dollar raised so far has been equity, not debt (C19).
- 2026-09-27editedThe FY2026 annual report states the mix as about 65% debt and 35% equity, not two-thirds, says no commitment exists for any part of the debt, and lists costs outside the $1.85B that must also be funded.
The company
NioCorp has no sales. Its only business is developing Elk Creek, a deposit in south-east Nebraska, and it needs more money to build it.
The deposit holds niobium, a metal that strengthens steel. The United States mines none, and Brazil produces about 93% of the world's; the government's geologists say Elk Creek would be the only American niobium mine. The plan also recovers scandium and rare earths. The rare earths now count toward the mine's proven reserves, but recovering them has been tested only in small trial plants.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C01facthigh confidence
NioCorp earns no operating revenue; its only business is developing the Elk Creek project in southeastern Nebraska, and it will need more capital to build it. It lost $48.6M attributable to shareholders in the year to 30 June 2026.
sourceNioCorp Form 10-Q, quarter ended 31 March 2026primaryNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026primary
- 2026-09-27editedThe FY2026 annual report confirms no revenue for the year to 30 June 2026 and a net loss attributable of $48.6M.
C12facthigh confidence
USGS put world niobium mine production at 112,000 tonnes of niobium content in both 2024 and 2025 with Brazil about 93% of it, United States apparent consumption at 9,900 tonnes in 2025, United States mine production at zero, and United States reserves at 210,000 tonnes.
C13facthigh confidence
USGS writes in its own niobium chapter that once operational the Nebraska site would be the only niobium mine and primary niobium-processing facility in the United States.
C36factmedium confidence
The filed study rests on a reserve of 45.93 million tons at 30 June 2026 - 7.57 million proven and 38.36 million probable - grading 0.759% niobium pentoxide, 69.3 parts per million scandium, 2.68% titanium dioxide and 0.34% rare-earth oxides. The rare earths are now inside the reserve; recovering them has been tested at bench and pilot scale, not in a commercial plant.
sourceS-K 1300 technical report summary for the 2026 Elk Creek…primaryNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026primary
- 2026-09-27editedThe filed reserve is dated 30 June 2026, not 2 April, and now carries rare earths at 0.34%, correcting this claim's statement that no rare-earth reserve could be declared; commercial-scale rare-earth recovery is still unproven.
How it makes money
Nothing yet. If built, the mine would sell eight products for 40 years. The study puts lifetime revenue at $37.44B: scandium 38.3%, niobium 26.1%, five rare-earth products 25.1% and titanium 10.5%. By its own numbers this is less a rare-earth company than a scandium one.
The evidence under this - 2 claims
C03management claimmedium confidence
The 2026 Elk Creek Study, filed on 25 September 2026 as a qualified-person technical report summary, puts the project's value at $4.11B before tax and $3.44B after tax at an 8% discount, on $1.85B of upfront capital spent over 35 months and a 40-year operating life. Under SEC rules it is a pre-feasibility study, not a feasibility study: the qualified persons say more plant engineering is needed to cut the 14% contingency on the capital estimate to 10% or less.
sourceS-K 1300 technical report summary for the 2026 Elk Creek…primaryNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026primaryNioCorp 2026 Elk Creek Feasibility Study results releaseprimary
against this
- The filed report classifies the study as pre-feasibility, a lower confidence level than the feasibility study the August release announced, and its scandium price rests on one consultant's June 2026 revision (C43).
- The same company's 2022 study assumed commercial production in 2025; construction had not started at 31 March 2026 (C37).
- The upfront capital estimate rose 62% between the two studies, which is what a four-year-old cost estimate is worth (C28).
- 2026-09-27editedThe study is now filed as a qualified-person report, and that report and the 10-K both classify it as a pre-feasibility study, not a feasibility study as the release and this thesis called it; the figures reconcile exactly.
C04management claimmedium confidence
Over the 40-year life the study puts revenue at $37.44B: scandium $14.33B or 38.3%, niobium $9.78B or 26.1%, the five rare-earth products together $9.38B or 25.1%, and titanium $3.95B or 10.5%.
sourceS-K 1300 technical report summary for the 2026 Elk Creek…primaryNioCorp 2026 Elk Creek Feasibility Study results releaseprimary
against this
- The split appears only in the August release. No filing carries it, so it cannot be checked against a document signed by a qualified person (C27).
- The revenue weighting is a function of the assumed prices, and the scandium price is the one furthest from anything observed (C05, C06).
- 2026-09-27editedReconciled to the filed technical report summary: $37,435M of revenue with scandium $14,331M, niobium $9,781M, rare earths $9,378M and titanium $3,946M.
Where the money comes from, stream by stream
| Stream | Share of sales (2026 study, planned over 40 years) | How it earns it |
|---|---|---|
| Scandium oxide (planned) | 38.3% | Would sell scandium oxide and alloy to alloy, fuel-cell and aerospace buyers; no buyer is bound to take it. |
| Ferroniobium (planned) | 26.1% | Would sell the steel-strengthening alloy: 50% to Traxys on a 15-year take-or-pay agreement signed 13 October and 50% to ThyssenKrupp on a ten-year offtake. |
| Rare-earth oxides (planned) | 25.1% | Five separated rare-earth products, a recovery so far proven only in pilot plants. |
| Titanium dioxide (planned) | 10.5% | Titanium dioxide recovered from the same ore as the other products; Traxys has exclusive marketing rights, no buyer is bound. |
Who runs it
Chief executive Smith has run NioCorp since 2013, and the 2025 start date its 2022 study promised passed with only the mine's entrance begun. Insiders own about 7%, mostly options rather than shares. The bonus pays on milestones the board judges, and raising money counted as one; long-term pay is options, with nothing tied to how many new shares are sold.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C46facthigh confidence
Mark A. Smith has been chief executive and a director since 23 September 2013 and president and executive chairman since 31 May 2015; he ran Molycorp from 2008 to 2012 and has also been chief executive of IBC Advanced Alloys since July 2020. Neal Shah has been chief financial officer since 1 July 2016 and Scott Honan, who joined in May 2014, chief operating officer since July 2020.
C47facthigh confidence
All ten directors and executive officers as a group beneficially owned 10,476,557 shares, 6.84%, at 25 September 2026, counting options, warrants and exchangeable Class B shares; the largest are director Dean Kehler at 2.49% and Mark Smith at 2.36%, of which 2,318,819 are shares he holds outright. BlackRock, at 6.18%, is the only holder above 5%, and there is one class of voting common share.
sourceNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026primaryNioCorp definitive proxy statement (DEF 14A) for the 6 April…primary
against this
Most of the group's holding is options and warrants rather than shares owned: Smith holds 2,318,819 shares outright, about 1.6% of the 145,849,630 outstanding, and the CFO and COO about 75,000 and 56,000 each.
C48facthigh confidence
For fiscal 2026 the board adopted an annual incentive plan late in the year and paid it at 169.5% of target: 45% on board-set corporate milestones for project development, financing and readiness, among them capital raises substantially above expectations; 10% on safety; 45% on individual performance assessed qualitatively. The CEO's total pay was $2,095,909 against $451,000 a year earlier, and options vest over two years with no performance condition.
sourceNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026primaryNioCorp definitive proxy statement (DEF 14A) for the 6 April…primary
against this
Before fiscal 2026 there was no formula at all: the fiscal 2025 proxy says the committee set no benchmarks or performance criteria, paid no cash bonus and granted options fully vested on the grant date.
C37facthigh confidence
The 2022 feasibility study assumed a four-year pre-production period and commercial production in 2025. At 30 June 2026 only the portal was being built - $5.6M spent of a $44.6M budget - and the 35-month construction clock in the 2026 study starts only once financing lets the company authorise the full build.
sourceNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026primaryS-K 1300 technical report summary for the 2026 Elk Creek…primaryNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2025primary
- 2026-09-27editedRe-sourced to the FY2026 annual report: portal construction began in February 2026; main construction awaits financing.
Why it wins, and who could beat it
Why customers come back
The advantage is geology. Elk Creek is the only niobium deposit of consequence in a country that holds 210,000 tonnes of reserves and mines none, and a richer rival cannot build another.
Outsiders pick the deposit by name: the Department of War awarded about $10.0M to the project in August 2025, the government's geologists name the site, and Lockheed Martin signed a memorandum with a mine that does not yet exist.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C12facthigh confidence
USGS put world niobium mine production at 112,000 tonnes of niobium content in both 2024 and 2025 with Brazil about 93% of it, United States apparent consumption at 9,900 tonnes in 2025, United States mine production at zero, and United States reserves at 210,000 tonnes.
C13facthigh confidence
USGS writes in its own niobium chapter that once operational the Nebraska site would be the only niobium mine and primary niobium-processing facility in the United States.
C35facthigh confidence
The Department of War awarded about $10.0M under Title III of the Defense Production Act to Elk Creek Resources in August 2025, payable as milestone reimbursements for feasibility-study engineering, reserve drilling and updated cost estimates; about $8.1M had been received by 30 June 2026.
sourceNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026primaryNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2025primaryUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries, February 2026 - Scandiumprimary
- 2026-09-27editedThe FY2026 annual report says about $8.1M of the $10.0M had been received by 30 June 2026.
C11facthigh confidence
The memorandum signed with Lockheed Martin on 4 August 2026 contemplates buying up to 15 tonnes a year of scandium oxide or aluminium-scandium alloy over ten years, and the company states it is non-binding with no assurance a definitive agreement will be reached. The FY2026 annual report does not name Lockheed; it refers only to non-binding memoranda covering portions of scandium production.
sourceNioCorp release, 4 August 2026 - the memorandum's…primaryNioCorp release: Lockheed Martin and NioCorp Sign MOUprimaryNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026primary
- 2026-09-27editedThe FY2026 annual report does not name Lockheed Martin; it describes non-binding memoranda covering portions of scandium production, and the technical report lists scandium offtake as subject to a memorandum with Traxys.
The threat
Scandium supply already exists. Rio Tinto's Quebec plant makes all of North America's from waste streams, and Canada is paying to expand it to nine tonnes a year. Australia licensed a scandium mine in October 2025, and aircraft makers can use titanium or carbon fibre instead. In niobium, the Brazilian producer holds about 85% of the world's supply and could push the price down.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C10facthigh confidence
Rio Tinto's Sorel-Tracy plant in Quebec began production in 2022 and by its own account makes the entirety of North American scandium supply; the Canada Growth Fund is investing about C$25M to take its nameplate capacity to nine tonnes a year, alongside an offtake in which the Government of Canada commits to buy a volume of scandium.
C40factmedium confidence
The Australian Government granted a mining licence in October 2025 for the Nyngan scandium project in New South Wales.
C31facthigh confidence
USGS states that titanium and aluminium high-strength alloys and carbon-fibre materials may substitute for scandium in high-performance scandium-alloy applications, while in some applications relying on scandium's unique properties substitution is not possible.
C16facthigh confidence
The company's own annual report states that Companhia Brasileira de Metalurgia e Mineracao supplies approximately 85% of the world's niobium, and warns that any attempt by that supplier to suppress the price would hurt NioCorp's value.
sourceNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026primaryNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2025primary
- 2026-09-27editedThe FY2026 annual report repeats the statement unchanged.
The rivals: RIO, and 3 more that are private, in-house or listed abroad.
Who else does this, rival by rival
| Ticker | Rival | How far along | Priced against it |
|---|---|---|---|
| RIO | Rio Tinto's Sorel-Tracy scandium oxide plant, QuebecPriced against it: Different product | On sale | Different product |
| The Nyngan scandium project, New South WalesPriced against it: Listed abroad | Announced | Listed abroad | |
| Not listed | Titanium and aluminium high-strength alloys, and carbon-fibre materialsPriced against it: Not listed | On sale | Not listed |
| Private | Companhia Brasileira de Metalurgia e MineracaoPriced against it: Private | On sale | Private |
How big it could get
How big this could get
The whole world used 60 tonnes of scandium oxide in 2025, at about $640 a kilogram: roughly $38M in all. Production was about 80 tonnes, with capacity for over 90.
The study's scandium line alone averages $358M a year, about 9.4 times that whole market. The largest Western producer, Rio Tinto, is expanding to nine tonnes a year.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C09facthigh confidence
USGS estimated global consumption of scandium oxide at 60 tonnes in 2025, global production at about 80 tonnes and global capacity at over 90 tonnes a year, all produced as a byproduct of nickel and titanium process streams, tailings and residues.
C06facthigh confidence
USGS reports a global average price for 99.99% scandium oxide powder in 5- to 100-kilogram lots of $640 a kilogram in 2025, down from a range of $890 to $1,000 in 2021.
C10facthigh confidence
Rio Tinto's Sorel-Tracy plant in Quebec began production in 2022 and by its own account makes the entirety of North American scandium supply; the Canada Growth Fund is investing about C$25M to take its nameplate capacity to nine tonnes a year, alongside an offtake in which the Government of Canada commits to buy a volume of scandium.
C01facthigh confidence
NioCorp earns no operating revenue; its only business is developing the Elk Creek project in southeastern Nebraska, and it will need more capital to build it. It lost $48.6M attributable to shareholders in the year to 30 June 2026.
sourceNioCorp Form 10-Q, quarter ended 31 March 2026primaryNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026primary
- 2026-09-27editedThe FY2026 annual report confirms no revenue for the year to 30 June 2026 and a net loss attributable of $48.6M.
Who has signed
Both niobium buyers are now bound: Traxys signed a 15-year agreement on 13 October for 50% of the mine's ferroniobium, the alloy it sells niobium as, and ThyssenKrupp covers the rest. For scandium, the study's largest line, nothing is binding: Traxys may buy it but need not, and Lockheed Martin's memorandum is not a contract.
The evidence under this - 2 claims
C26facthigh confidence
On 13 October 2026 NioCorp signed a binding definitive agreement with Traxys North America: Traxys will buy 50% of planned ferroniobium on a take-or-pay basis over the first 15 years of production, replacing the earlier Traxys ferroniobium and scandium arrangements, and has the exclusive right, but not the obligation, to buy the scandium, titanium and rare earth products and to market them worldwide for 15 years. The other 50% of ferroniobium stays with ThyssenKrupp under a ten-year offtake. Deliveries depend on project financing, construction, commercial production and final ancillary terms; a Traxys equity investment of up to $30M is under discussion and not agreed. Scandium, titanium and rare earths therefore still have no binding buyer. The 8-K adds that either party may terminate the agreement if the Export-Import Bank has not given final approval of senior debt, or financial close has not happened, by 31 December 2027 (six months more if approved but not closed), and Traxys may terminate if commercial production has not begun within 60 months.
sourceNioCorp release, 13 October 2026 - definitive Traxys agreementprimaryS-K 1300 technical report summary for the 2026 Elk Creek…primaryNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026primaryNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2025primary
- 2026-09-27editedThe filed technical report gives the two ferroniobium offtakes' volumes and terms, and describes a draft definitive agreement with Traxys, dated 13 April 2026 and unsigned, covering every other product.
- 2026-10-13editedThe Traxys definitive agreement was signed on 13 October: binding take-or-pay for 50% of ferroniobium over 15 years, with exclusive but non-obligatory rights over every other product. It replaces the earlier arrangement, which the filed report called an unsigned draft.
- 2026-10-16editedThe 8-K filed for the agreement states a termination right: either party may walk away if EXIM has not given final approval of senior debt by 31 December 2027, and Traxys if commercial production is not reached within 60 months.
C11facthigh confidence
The memorandum signed with Lockheed Martin on 4 August 2026 contemplates buying up to 15 tonnes a year of scandium oxide or aluminium-scandium alloy over ten years, and the company states it is non-binding with no assurance a definitive agreement will be reached. The FY2026 annual report does not name Lockheed; it refers only to non-binding memoranda covering portions of scandium production.
sourceNioCorp release, 4 August 2026 - the memorandum's…primaryNioCorp release: Lockheed Martin and NioCorp Sign MOUprimaryNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026primary
- 2026-09-27editedThe FY2026 annual report does not name Lockheed Martin; it describes non-binding memoranda covering portions of scandium production, and the technical report lists scandium offtake as subject to a memorandum with Traxys.
The results
What growth costs
With no sales yet, growth here means paying to get the mine ready: studies, drilling and a bigger head office, all of which rose sharply last year while interest on the cash offset part of it. The real cost is building the mine, which has not been paid for.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C51facthigh confidence
Operating expenses were $38.3M in fiscal 2026 against $12.0M in fiscal 2025: exploration $16.1M against $4.1M, mostly the drilling programme and the 2026 study, and general and administrative $22.2M against $7.8M. Interest on the cash brought in $9.1M against $0.1M, operating cash outflow was $15.9M against $10.7M, and $21.3M was capitalised to the project against almost nothing.
C02facthigh confidence
NioCorp had fourteen full-time employees and four contract employees at 30 June 2026, against seven and one a year earlier, and retains outside consultants for specialised work.
sourceNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026primaryNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2025primary
- 2026-09-27editedThe FY2026 annual report gives the 30 June 2026 headcount: fourteen full-time and four contract employees, double a year earlier.
C22management claimhigh confidence
Management expects to fund the $1.85B of upfront capital with about 65% debt and 35% equity, and says it has not obtained a commitment for any portion of the debt. It also has to fund costs outside that estimate: financing fees, interest during construction, start-up working capital, reclamation assurance, overhead until production and any overrun beyond the contingency.
sourceNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026primaryNioCorp Form 10-Q, quarter ended 31 March 2026primary
against this
- The debt in question is the EXIM loan, applied for in June 2023 and still uncommitted three years later (C21).
- The same filing says future equity financings will likely be completed at a discount to the market price and will likely be dilutive, and that there is significant uncertainty that any additional financing could be secured.
- Every dollar raised so far has been equity, not debt (C19).
- 2026-09-27editedThe FY2026 annual report states the mix as about 65% debt and 35% equity, not two-thirds, says no commitment exists for any part of the debt, and lists costs outside the $1.85B that must also be funded.
The last report (14 May)
There are no sales to report. In the year to 30 June 2026 the company lost $48.6M and raised money: it ended the year with $415.0M of cash and no borrowings, and plans to spend $65M to $75M over the next twelve months.
Building has barely begun. Only the mine's entrance is under way, $5.6M spent of a $44.6M budget. The full build takes 35 months from the day it is financed; the previous study had planned first production for 2025.
What it did to the thesisIt changed little, and that is the point. There are no sales, the cash is large and there is no debt, but building has barely started and the timeline keeps slipping. The small bet the price makes looks about right, so the view stays Neutral.
The quarter in detail
Earnings per share $-0.02 against $-0.02 expected; $0.01 as filed, the gap being what the company adds back.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C01facthigh confidence
NioCorp earns no operating revenue; its only business is developing the Elk Creek project in southeastern Nebraska, and it will need more capital to build it. It lost $48.6M attributable to shareholders in the year to 30 June 2026.
sourceNioCorp Form 10-Q, quarter ended 31 March 2026primaryNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026primary
- 2026-09-27editedThe FY2026 annual report confirms no revenue for the year to 30 June 2026 and a net loss attributable of $48.6M.
C17facthigh confidence
Cash and cash equivalents were $415.0M at 30 June 2026 with working capital of $402.3M, against total liabilities of $37.1M - $25.2M of it warrant and earnout liabilities carried at fair value - and no borrowings. The company plans to spend $65M to $75M over the next twelve months.
- 2026-09-27editedRe-sourced to the audited 30 June 2026 balance sheet in the FY2026 annual report.
C20facthigh confidence
Construction in progress on the balance sheet was $5.7M at 30 June 2026 against nil a year earlier. It is the portal - the underground mine's main entrance - which began in February 2026 on a $44.6M budget and had $5.6M spent by 30 June.
- 2026-09-27editedRe-sourced to the FY2026 annual report: construction in progress $5.7M at 30 June 2026, all of it the portal project.
C37facthigh confidence
The 2022 feasibility study assumed a four-year pre-production period and commercial production in 2025. At 30 June 2026 only the portal was being built - $5.6M spent of a $44.6M budget - and the 35-month construction clock in the 2026 study starts only once financing lets the company authorise the full build.
sourceNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026primaryS-K 1300 technical report summary for the 2026 Elk Creek…primaryNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2025primary
- 2026-09-27editedRe-sourced to the FY2026 annual report: portal construction began in February 2026; main construction awaits financing.
What management did with the money
Share sales left about 2.5 times as many shares as a year earlier. Management also spent $8.4M buying FEA Materials, a maker of scandium-aluminium alloy, which gives its own scandium a buyer, and adopted a plan that makes a hostile takeover harder.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C18facthigh confidence
Shares issued and outstanding went from 58,491,196 at 30 June 2025 to 145,327,493 at 31 March 2026 - 2.48 times as many in nine months - and 145,587,048 were outstanding on 14 May 2026.
C41facthigh confidence
NioCorp paid $8.4M in December 2025 for the manufacturing assets and intellectual property of FEA Materials, a maker of scandium-containing aluminium master alloys, recording $2.2M of goodwill and a ten-year intangible.
C39facthigh confidence
The board adopted a shareholder rights plan on 21 November 2025 and shareholders approved extending it to the 2027 annual meeting on 6 April 2026.
The price, and where we disagree
In short. Fair. The price is a small bet on a mine not yet built, and the largest assumption in the company's own study, a high scandium price, may not hold. The discount looks about right.
Share price
$3.60
close,
Price for each $1 of net worth
1.4
its 6-year normal 12.6
Spare cash as a share of the price
-2.6%
its 6-year normal -8.1%
The annual report arrived on 25 September with the signed engineering report behind the study. It matches the August release, and it names OnG Commodities as the outside forecaster behind the scandium price. That forecaster raised its price for NioCorp from about $1,967 a kilogram to $3,250 in ten months.
On 13 October Traxys signed a binding 15-year agreement for half the ferroniobium. The next test is whether anything else becomes binding: a scandium buyer, or a loan to build the mine.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C27facthigh confidence
The qualified-person technical report summary for the 2026 study was filed with the SEC on 25 September 2026, as Exhibit 96.1 to the FY2026 annual report, with an effective date of 30 June 2026; the Lockheed memorandum has not been filed.
sourceNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026primaryS-K 1300 technical report summary for the 2026 Elk Creek…primarySEC EDGAR full submissions index for CIK 0001512228primary
- 2026-09-27editedThe technical report summary for the 2026 study was filed on 25 September 2026 as Exhibit 96.1 to the FY2026 annual report, so the claim that none was on file no longer holds.
C43facthigh confidence
The filed report names OnG Commodities as the independent scandium market consultant. OnG's August 2025 forecast priced NioCorp's scandium at $1,500 to $2,500 a kilogram for 2030 to 2035; its June 2026 revision, driven by fuel-cell demand from AI data centres, raised it to $3,250 through 2036, and the study's first twelve years use that $3,250.
against this
- OnG's own estimate of the 2025 price is about $800 a kilogram outside China, and USGS reports $640 (C06).
- OnG writes that there are no bankable scandium offtakes in sight, and that a large downturn in AI capital spending would drastically reduce scandium demand and its price outlook (C45).
- The years from thirteen onward are priced at $3,501 a kilogram, beyond the end of OnG's forecast, and the report's price table cites NioCorp alongside OnG as its source.
C26facthigh confidence
On 13 October 2026 NioCorp signed a binding definitive agreement with Traxys North America: Traxys will buy 50% of planned ferroniobium on a take-or-pay basis over the first 15 years of production, replacing the earlier Traxys ferroniobium and scandium arrangements, and has the exclusive right, but not the obligation, to buy the scandium, titanium and rare earth products and to market them worldwide for 15 years. The other 50% of ferroniobium stays with ThyssenKrupp under a ten-year offtake. Deliveries depend on project financing, construction, commercial production and final ancillary terms; a Traxys equity investment of up to $30M is under discussion and not agreed. Scandium, titanium and rare earths therefore still have no binding buyer. The 8-K adds that either party may terminate the agreement if the Export-Import Bank has not given final approval of senior debt, or financial close has not happened, by 31 December 2027 (six months more if approved but not closed), and Traxys may terminate if commercial production has not begun within 60 months.
sourceNioCorp release, 13 October 2026 - definitive Traxys agreementprimaryS-K 1300 technical report summary for the 2026 Elk Creek…primaryNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026primaryNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2025primary
- 2026-09-27editedThe filed technical report gives the two ferroniobium offtakes' volumes and terms, and describes a draft definitive agreement with Traxys, dated 13 April 2026 and unsigned, covering every other product.
- 2026-10-13editedThe Traxys definitive agreement was signed on 13 October: binding take-or-pay for 50% of ferroniobium over 15 years, with exclusive but non-obligatory rights over every other product. It replaces the earlier arrangement, which the filed report called an unsigned draft.
- 2026-10-16editedThe 8-K filed for the agreement states a termination right: either party may walk away if EXIM has not given final approval of senior debt by 31 December 2027, and Traxys if commercial production is not reached within 60 months.
C21facthigh confidence
NioCorp applied to the Export-Import Bank on 6 June 2023 for up to $800M of debt, passed the first of three transaction review committee reviews in October 2023, received a preliminary project letter in April 2024 and was advanced to the next stage in February 2025, where its application remained at 30 June 2026. Its annual report says it cannot estimate the amount or how long the process may take, and that there is no assurance of a final commitment.
sourceNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026primaryNioCorp Form 10-Q, quarter ended 31 March 2026primaryNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2025primary
- 2026-09-27editedThe FY2026 annual report says the application remains at the next stage of the Transaction Review Committee's review, with SLR Consulting engaged for the independent technical and environmental reviews, and still no commitment.
The betPriced for success
If it works
no upside
none the evidence defends inside two to three years
If it fails
keep 48%
of today's market value: what the worst case leaves shareholders
How we read the multiple
After its cash, buyers pay about $101.3M for NioCorp's share of a planned mine that its own study values at $2.80B after tax: about 3.6 cents on the dollar.
That is cheap only if the study's scandium price is real:
- The study assumes about $3,444 a kilogram over the mine's life.
- The world paid an average of $640 a kilogram in 2025.
- The mine would make about 100 tonnes a year; the whole world used 60.
- The same filed report values the mine's reserves at only $1,966 a kilogram.
Against its own history. Far cheaper against what it owns than in the past, but what it owns is now mostly cash from new shares, so the gap describes the cash, not the mine.
The evidence under this - 6 claims
C23estimatemedium confidence
At $3.54 the whole company is worth about $516.3M; less $415.0M of cash that leaves about $101.3M of enterprise value against $2.80B of the study's after-tax value attributable to NioCorp's 81.33% of Elk Creek Resources - about 3.6 cents on the dollar, down from 8.4 cents at the $4.47 the thesis was struck against.
derivedStruck on the 2026-09-25 close of $3.54 (the 2026-09-24 close was the same). 145,849,630 shares on the 25 September 2026 cover of the FY2026 annual report times $3.54 is $516.3M. Cash and cash equivalents of $415.0M at 30 June 2026 with no borrowings (C17), so enterprise value is $101.3M. The filed study's after-tax value of $3,441M (C03) times the 81.33% of Elk Creek Resources the annual report's subsidiary table gives (C24) is $2,798.6M; $101.3M divided by $2,798.6M is 3.6%. At the thesis the same arithmetic gave $231.6M against $2,767M, 8.4%. The Class B shares exchangeable into NioCorp stock are excluded from both sides.
against this
- The denominator is a pre-feasibility study, and 38% of the revenue behind it is scandium priced 5.4 times the observed 2025 market on one consultant's revised forecast (C04, C05, C06, C43).
- The numerator ignores the equity still to be raised: funding the intended equity third of the capital cost at today's price would roughly double the share count (C25).
- The study's value is struck at an 8% discount rate on a single unbuilt underground mine with an unproven rare-earth circuit - a rate that assumes construction and commissioning risk away (C36).
- 2026-09-25editedre-struck on the 2026-09-24 close after an 18.2% price decline since the thesis; cash and the study's value are unchanged
- 2026-09-26editedThe basis still showed the arithmetic at $4.47 after the claim was re-struck at $3.54 on 2026-09-25; it now shows the $3.54 arithmetic and names both bases for the fall: 20.8% from the $4.47 pack close of 2026-08-25 the figures were struck at, 18.2% from the $4.33 close of 2026-08-26, the thesis date.
- 2026-09-27editedRe-struck on the 30 June 2026 balance sheet, the 25 September 2026 cover share count and the 81.33% stake the FY2026 annual report gives, at the unchanged $3.54 close of 2026-09-25.
C05management claimmedium confidence
The filed study prices scandium trioxide at $1,474 a pound ($3,250 a kilogram) for years one to twelve, with $1,315 in year seven, and $1,588 a pound ($3,501 a kilogram) from year thirteen to the end - an average of $1,562.90 a pound, or $3,443.61 a kilogram, over the mine's life.
sourceS-K 1300 technical report summary for the 2026 Elk Creek…primaryNioCorp 2026 Elk Creek Feasibility Study results releaseprimary
against this
- USGS reports a global average of $640 a kilogram for 99.99% scandium oxide powder in 2025 - the study assumes 5.4 times it (C06).
- On the older USGS series the same agency published for 2024, $1,200 a kilogram, the study still assumes 2.9 times the observed price (C07).
- Both USGS series fall every year from 2020 to 2025, while the study's assumption is barely below the $3,674 a kilogram the 2022 study used.
- The same filed report prices the reserve itself at $1,966 a kilogram, 43% below the economic model's average (C44).
- 2026-09-27editedThe filed report gives the price path behind the release's single figure: $1,474 a pound for years one to twelve (with $1,315 in year seven) and $1,588 from year thirteen, averaging $1,562.90 a pound or $3,443.61 a kilogram.
C06facthigh confidence
USGS reports a global average price for 99.99% scandium oxide powder in 5- to 100-kilogram lots of $640 a kilogram in 2025, down from a range of $890 to $1,000 in 2021.
C08management claimhigh confidence
NioCorp's own release says it plans to produce approximately 100 tonnes a year of scandium oxide at Elk Creek once financing and construction are complete.
against this
- World consumption of scandium oxide was 60 tonnes in 2025 and world production about 80 tonnes, so one mine would have to be larger than the market it sells into (C09).
- The only named buyer has signed a non-binding memorandum for up to 15 tonnes a year (C11).
C09facthigh confidence
USGS estimated global consumption of scandium oxide at 60 tonnes in 2025, global production at about 80 tonnes and global capacity at over 90 tonnes a year, all produced as a byproduct of nickel and titanium process streams, tailings and residues.
C44facthigh confidence
The same filed report prices the reserve at $1,966 a kilogram of scandium oxide - the average of OnG's August 2025 forecast - and uses $3,443.61 a kilogram only in the economic model, 75% higher, calling the lower figure its conservative long-term basis and the higher one an allowance for the current high price outside China.
against this
- The report treats dysprosium and terbium the same way, both priced in the model at three to four times their reserve prices on the same argument, so scandium is not singled out.
- A resource or reserve priced below the model is ordinary practice, and the qualified persons state that non-China prices currently run three to four times China's.
Priced against its rivals
None of the listed rivals above sells the same thing to the same buyers as a large part of what it does. A price comparison needs at least two, so the price is judged against its own history instead.
The bet: what it pays if it works
This is not a bet that can pay inside two to three years. The mine cannot be built until the debt is raised, and building it takes about three years after that, so no sales arrive within the window we judge.
If it fails, shareholders keep a company with plenty of cash and no debt, though the cash shrinks each year and building the mine would need many new shares.
The steps it has to take
- Done Portal construction started
- Done Traxys definitive offtake agreement signed
- In progress EXIM board decision on the $800M loan due 2027-06
- Not started Binding construction debt committed due 2028-12
- Not started Scandium buyers sign volume near the study's price due 2028-12
- Not started The build's equity share funded due 2028-12
The detail behind the label
Rating
No real upside
the big win's payoff against the 2× and 5× lines
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C37facthigh confidence
The 2022 feasibility study assumed a four-year pre-production period and commercial production in 2025. At 30 June 2026 only the portal was being built - $5.6M spent of a $44.6M budget - and the 35-month construction clock in the 2026 study starts only once financing lets the company authorise the full build.
sourceNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026primaryS-K 1300 technical report summary for the 2026 Elk Creek…primaryNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2025primary
- 2026-09-27editedRe-sourced to the FY2026 annual report: portal construction began in February 2026; main construction awaits financing.
C22management claimhigh confidence
Management expects to fund the $1.85B of upfront capital with about 65% debt and 35% equity, and says it has not obtained a commitment for any portion of the debt. It also has to fund costs outside that estimate: financing fees, interest during construction, start-up working capital, reclamation assurance, overhead until production and any overrun beyond the contingency.
sourceNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026primaryNioCorp Form 10-Q, quarter ended 31 March 2026primary
against this
- The debt in question is the EXIM loan, applied for in June 2023 and still uncommitted three years later (C21).
- The same filing says future equity financings will likely be completed at a discount to the market price and will likely be dilutive, and that there is significant uncertainty that any additional financing could be secured.
- Every dollar raised so far has been equity, not debt (C19).
- 2026-09-27editedThe FY2026 annual report states the mix as about 65% debt and 35% equity, not two-thirds, says no commitment exists for any part of the debt, and lists costs outside the $1.85B that must also be funded.
C17facthigh confidence
Cash and cash equivalents were $415.0M at 30 June 2026 with working capital of $402.3M, against total liabilities of $37.1M - $25.2M of it warrant and earnout liabilities carried at fair value - and no borrowings. The company plans to spend $65M to $75M over the next twelve months.
- 2026-09-27editedRe-sourced to the audited 30 June 2026 balance sheet in the FY2026 annual report.
C25estimatemedium confidence
If 65% of the $1.85B came from debt, the remaining $647M of equity is $232M more than the cash on hand, and funding that whole equity share at $3.54 would issue about 183M shares - more than doubling the count - before the costs the company says sit outside the estimate.
derived$1,849M of upfront capital (C03) times 35% is $647.2M. Cash of $415.0M at 30 June 2026 (C17). $647.2M divided by the $3.54 close of 2026-09-25 is 182.8M shares against 145.8M outstanding on 25 September 2026. The arithmetic assumes no discount to the market price, which the company's own filing says is unlikely, no cost overrun, and ignores the financing fees, construction interest and start-up working capital the annual report says must also be funded (C22).
against this
- The cash on hand covers about 64% of the intended equity share, so the incremental raise could be as little as $232M if the debt arrives in full and on time.
- A larger debt share, a strategic investor or a government equity stake of the kind other critical-minerals companies have taken would change the arithmetic entirely.
- 2026-09-25editedre-struck on the 2026-09-24 close after an 18.2% price decline since the thesis
- 2026-09-26editedThe basis still divided by $4.47 after the claim was re-struck at $3.54 on 2026-09-25; it now shows the 174.0M-share arithmetic the claim states.
- 2026-09-27editedRe-struck on the 65% debt and 35% equity mix the FY2026 annual report states and the 30 June 2026 cash.
Where we disagree with the market
The market believes
A rare-earth play riding China's export controls, with government money behind it.
We believe
The discount is right and the label is wrong. Scandium is 38.3% of the study; its whole world market is about $38M.
The shares move closely with the rare-earth stocks, and both analysts who cover them rate them a buy. But the scandium price that carries the study comes from one forecaster's revision this year, and the government's own geologists measure the scandium market at $640 a kilogram.
We would be wrong if a scandium buyer signs a stated volume near the study's price, or world use grows well beyond 60 tonnes.
What analysts say, and the evidence
The evidence under this - 6 claims
C29facthigh confidence
Over the last 252 sessions the shares moved with MP Materials and USA Rare Earth at a correlation of 0.78, and at 0.85 over the last 63.
C38factlow confidence
Two analysts cover the shares and both rate them a buy; the single published estimate series is internally incoherent, putting the year to June 2030 well below the year to June 2029.
C04management claimmedium confidence
Over the 40-year life the study puts revenue at $37.44B: scandium $14.33B or 38.3%, niobium $9.78B or 26.1%, the five rare-earth products together $9.38B or 25.1%, and titanium $3.95B or 10.5%.
sourceS-K 1300 technical report summary for the 2026 Elk Creek…primaryNioCorp 2026 Elk Creek Feasibility Study results releaseprimary
against this
- The split appears only in the August release. No filing carries it, so it cannot be checked against a document signed by a qualified person (C27).
- The revenue weighting is a function of the assumed prices, and the scandium price is the one furthest from anything observed (C05, C06).
- 2026-09-27editedReconciled to the filed technical report summary: $37,435M of revenue with scandium $14,331M, niobium $9,781M, rare earths $9,378M and titanium $3,946M.
C43facthigh confidence
The filed report names OnG Commodities as the independent scandium market consultant. OnG's August 2025 forecast priced NioCorp's scandium at $1,500 to $2,500 a kilogram for 2030 to 2035; its June 2026 revision, driven by fuel-cell demand from AI data centres, raised it to $3,250 through 2036, and the study's first twelve years use that $3,250.
against this
- OnG's own estimate of the 2025 price is about $800 a kilogram outside China, and USGS reports $640 (C06).
- OnG writes that there are no bankable scandium offtakes in sight, and that a large downturn in AI capital spending would drastically reduce scandium demand and its price outlook (C45).
- The years from thirteen onward are priced at $3,501 a kilogram, beyond the end of OnG's forecast, and the report's price table cites NioCorp alongside OnG as its source.
C42estimatemedium confidence
The entire world scandium oxide market was worth roughly $38M in 2025 - 60 tonnes of consumption at $640 a kilogram - while the study's scandium line alone averages $358M a year.
derived60 tonnes (C09) is 60,000 kilograms; at the $640 a kilogram USGS reports for 2025 (C06, the price series quoted at S13) that is $38.4M. The study's scandium revenue of $14,331M (C04) over 40 years averages $358M a year. The two figures are on different bases - one is today's market at today's price, the other a forty-year average at an assumed price - and the point of putting them side by side is the size of the gap the study needs the market to close, not that one is a forecast of the other.
against this
- USGS revised the market up sharply in one year - consumption from 30 to 40 tonnes to 60, production from 40 to 80 - so the base is moving fast (C34).
- A new low-cost supplier can create its own market: scandium is expensive partly because it is scarce, and aluminium-scandium alloy uses that are uneconomic at $3,446 a kilogram may not be at a fraction of it. That is the company's own case, and it is the reverse of the arithmetic above.
- The value comparison uses the oxide price; the company intends to sell master alloy as well, which carries a different price (C41).
C09facthigh confidence
USGS estimated global consumption of scandium oxide at 60 tonnes in 2025, global production at about 80 tonnes and global capacity at over 90 tonnes a year, all produced as a byproduct of nickel and titanium process streams, tailings and residues.
What could go wrong, and how we would know
The risks
- Scandium demand may not come. The study's largest line needs about 9.4 times today's whole market, and the company lists the durability of AI-driven demand among its own risks.
- An unproven rare-earth process. Rare earths are a quarter of the study's revenue and now count as reserves, but commercial recovery has not been proved.
- More shares to come. Funding 35% of the $1.85B cost with shares at today's price would issue about 183M, more than doubling the count.
- No loan yet. It applied for up to $800M from the Export-Import Bank in 2023 and has no commitment for any of the debt.
- A cost that keeps rising. The upfront cost rose 62% between the 2022 study and the 2026 one.
The evidence under this - 7 claims
C42estimatemedium confidence
The entire world scandium oxide market was worth roughly $38M in 2025 - 60 tonnes of consumption at $640 a kilogram - while the study's scandium line alone averages $358M a year.
derived60 tonnes (C09) is 60,000 kilograms; at the $640 a kilogram USGS reports for 2025 (C06, the price series quoted at S13) that is $38.4M. The study's scandium revenue of $14,331M (C04) over 40 years averages $358M a year. The two figures are on different bases - one is today's market at today's price, the other a forty-year average at an assumed price - and the point of putting them side by side is the size of the gap the study needs the market to close, not that one is a forecast of the other.
against this
- USGS revised the market up sharply in one year - consumption from 30 to 40 tonnes to 60, production from 40 to 80 - so the base is moving fast (C34).
- A new low-cost supplier can create its own market: scandium is expensive partly because it is scarce, and aluminium-scandium alloy uses that are uneconomic at $3,446 a kilogram may not be at a fraction of it. That is the company's own case, and it is the reverse of the arithmetic above.
- The value comparison uses the oxide price; the company intends to sell master alloy as well, which carries a different price (C41).
C32facthigh confidence
The company's own release ties scandium demand to solid oxide fuel cells deployed for artificial-intelligence data centres, and lists among its risks that the anticipated demand drivers for scandium relating to artificial intelligence are not sustainable.
sourceNioCorp 2026 Elk Creek Feasibility Study results releaseprimaryNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026primaryS-K 1300 technical report summary for the 2026 Elk Creek…primary
- 2026-09-27editedThe FY2026 annual report lists 'a reduction of demand for scandium from a downturn in capital spending for AI' among its own risks, and the filed market study says a large downturn would drastically reduce its price outlook.
C36factmedium confidence
The filed study rests on a reserve of 45.93 million tons at 30 June 2026 - 7.57 million proven and 38.36 million probable - grading 0.759% niobium pentoxide, 69.3 parts per million scandium, 2.68% titanium dioxide and 0.34% rare-earth oxides. The rare earths are now inside the reserve; recovering them has been tested at bench and pilot scale, not in a commercial plant.
sourceS-K 1300 technical report summary for the 2026 Elk Creek…primaryNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026primary
- 2026-09-27editedThe filed reserve is dated 30 June 2026, not 2 April, and now carries rare earths at 0.34%, correcting this claim's statement that no rare-earth reserve could be declared; commercial-scale rare-earth recovery is still unproven.
C04management claimmedium confidence
Over the 40-year life the study puts revenue at $37.44B: scandium $14.33B or 38.3%, niobium $9.78B or 26.1%, the five rare-earth products together $9.38B or 25.1%, and titanium $3.95B or 10.5%.
sourceS-K 1300 technical report summary for the 2026 Elk Creek…primaryNioCorp 2026 Elk Creek Feasibility Study results releaseprimary
against this
- The split appears only in the August release. No filing carries it, so it cannot be checked against a document signed by a qualified person (C27).
- The revenue weighting is a function of the assumed prices, and the scandium price is the one furthest from anything observed (C05, C06).
- 2026-09-27editedReconciled to the filed technical report summary: $37,435M of revenue with scandium $14,331M, niobium $9,781M, rare earths $9,378M and titanium $3,946M.
C25estimatemedium confidence
If 65% of the $1.85B came from debt, the remaining $647M of equity is $232M more than the cash on hand, and funding that whole equity share at $3.54 would issue about 183M shares - more than doubling the count - before the costs the company says sit outside the estimate.
derived$1,849M of upfront capital (C03) times 35% is $647.2M. Cash of $415.0M at 30 June 2026 (C17). $647.2M divided by the $3.54 close of 2026-09-25 is 182.8M shares against 145.8M outstanding on 25 September 2026. The arithmetic assumes no discount to the market price, which the company's own filing says is unlikely, no cost overrun, and ignores the financing fees, construction interest and start-up working capital the annual report says must also be funded (C22).
against this
- The cash on hand covers about 64% of the intended equity share, so the incremental raise could be as little as $232M if the debt arrives in full and on time.
- A larger debt share, a strategic investor or a government equity stake of the kind other critical-minerals companies have taken would change the arithmetic entirely.
- 2026-09-25editedre-struck on the 2026-09-24 close after an 18.2% price decline since the thesis
- 2026-09-26editedThe basis still divided by $4.47 after the claim was re-struck at $3.54 on 2026-09-25; it now shows the 174.0M-share arithmetic the claim states.
- 2026-09-27editedRe-struck on the 65% debt and 35% equity mix the FY2026 annual report states and the 30 June 2026 cash.
C21facthigh confidence
NioCorp applied to the Export-Import Bank on 6 June 2023 for up to $800M of debt, passed the first of three transaction review committee reviews in October 2023, received a preliminary project letter in April 2024 and was advanced to the next stage in February 2025, where its application remained at 30 June 2026. Its annual report says it cannot estimate the amount or how long the process may take, and that there is no assurance of a final commitment.
sourceNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026primaryNioCorp Form 10-Q, quarter ended 31 March 2026primaryNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2025primary
- 2026-09-27editedThe FY2026 annual report says the application remains at the next stage of the Transaction Review Committee's review, with SLR Consulting engaged for the independent technical and environmental reviews, and still no commitment.
C28estimatemedium confidence
The upfront capital estimate rose from $1,141.0M in the technical report summary filed with the FY2025 annual report to $1,849M in the 2026 study - 62% more - while the mine life went from 38 years to 40.
sourceS-K 1300 technical report summary for the 2026 Elk Creek…primaryNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2025primary
against this
- The 2026 study adds five rare-earth products and a rare-earth circuit the 2022 study never costed, so part of the increase buys capacity rather than measuring inflation.
- Four years of United States construction cost inflation would have raised a like-for-like estimate anyway; the 62% is not all schedule slippage.
- The 2026 figure comes from a release rather than a filed technical report summary, so the two numbers may not yet be on identical bases (C27).
- 2026-09-27editedThe $1,849M is now in the filed technical report summary.
What we still do not know
- Whether the scandium forecast holds. It rests on fuel cells for AI data centres, and the forecaster says a downturn there would cut it sharply.
- Where the mine's costs sit against Brazil's producer, which publishes nothing to compare them with.
- Whether Lockheed Martin's memorandum, or any other scandium buyer, becomes a binding contract now that Traxys holds only a right to buy.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
C43facthigh confidence
The filed report names OnG Commodities as the independent scandium market consultant. OnG's August 2025 forecast priced NioCorp's scandium at $1,500 to $2,500 a kilogram for 2030 to 2035; its June 2026 revision, driven by fuel-cell demand from AI data centres, raised it to $3,250 through 2036, and the study's first twelve years use that $3,250.
against this
- OnG's own estimate of the 2025 price is about $800 a kilogram outside China, and USGS reports $640 (C06).
- OnG writes that there are no bankable scandium offtakes in sight, and that a large downturn in AI capital spending would drastically reduce scandium demand and its price outlook (C45).
- The years from thirteen onward are priced at $3,501 a kilogram, beyond the end of OnG's forecast, and the report's price table cites NioCorp alongside OnG as its source.
C45management claimmedium confidence
OnG's supply and demand table in the filed report puts world scandium oxide demand at 37 tonnes in 2025, rising to 228 tonnes in 2030 and 711 in 2035, and counts about 100 tonnes a year from NioCorp from 2030. OnG also writes that there are no bankable offtakes in sight and that a large downturn in AI capital spending would drastically reduce demand.
against this
- USGS measured 2025 consumption at 60 tonnes and production at about 80, with capacity over 90 (C09), so OnG starts from a different base than the government's geologists.
- The forecast needs world demand to grow about nineteen-fold in ten years, and OnG's own table shows the market in surplus from 2030 to 2033 as NioCorp and others start up.
C16facthigh confidence
The company's own annual report states that Companhia Brasileira de Metalurgia e Mineracao supplies approximately 85% of the world's niobium, and warns that any attempt by that supplier to suppress the price would hurt NioCorp's value.
sourceNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026primaryNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2025primary
- 2026-09-27editedThe FY2026 annual report repeats the statement unchanged.
C11facthigh confidence
The memorandum signed with Lockheed Martin on 4 August 2026 contemplates buying up to 15 tonnes a year of scandium oxide or aluminium-scandium alloy over ten years, and the company states it is non-binding with no assurance a definitive agreement will be reached. The FY2026 annual report does not name Lockheed; it refers only to non-binding memoranda covering portions of scandium production.
sourceNioCorp release, 4 August 2026 - the memorandum's…primaryNioCorp release: Lockheed Martin and NioCorp Sign MOUprimaryNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026primary
- 2026-09-27editedThe FY2026 annual report does not name Lockheed Martin; it describes non-binding memoranda covering portions of scandium production, and the technical report lists scandium offtake as subject to a memorandum with Traxys.
C26facthigh confidence
On 13 October 2026 NioCorp signed a binding definitive agreement with Traxys North America: Traxys will buy 50% of planned ferroniobium on a take-or-pay basis over the first 15 years of production, replacing the earlier Traxys ferroniobium and scandium arrangements, and has the exclusive right, but not the obligation, to buy the scandium, titanium and rare earth products and to market them worldwide for 15 years. The other 50% of ferroniobium stays with ThyssenKrupp under a ten-year offtake. Deliveries depend on project financing, construction, commercial production and final ancillary terms; a Traxys equity investment of up to $30M is under discussion and not agreed. Scandium, titanium and rare earths therefore still have no binding buyer. The 8-K adds that either party may terminate the agreement if the Export-Import Bank has not given final approval of senior debt, or financial close has not happened, by 31 December 2027 (six months more if approved but not closed), and Traxys may terminate if commercial production has not begun within 60 months.
sourceNioCorp release, 13 October 2026 - definitive Traxys agreementprimaryS-K 1300 technical report summary for the 2026 Elk Creek…primaryNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026primaryNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2025primary
- 2026-09-27editedThe filed technical report gives the two ferroniobium offtakes' volumes and terms, and describes a draft definitive agreement with Traxys, dated 13 April 2026 and unsigned, covering every other product.
- 2026-10-13editedThe Traxys definitive agreement was signed on 13 October: binding take-or-pay for 50% of ferroniobium over 15 years, with exclusive but non-obligatory rights over every other product. It replaces the earlier arrangement, which the filed report called an unsigned draft.
- 2026-10-16editedThe 8-K filed for the agreement states a termination right: either party may walk away if EXIM has not given final approval of senior debt by 31 December 2027, and Traxys if commercial production is not reached within 60 months.
What would change our view
- Neutral→AttractiveFinancing and a real scandium market both appear
It needs all of:
- ○A binding loan to build Elk Creek is signed by the end of 2028.watched as it happens
- ○Scandium buyers sign volume near the study's price, and world use grows well beyond the 60 tonnes of 2025.checked at the next results, due by 12 Nov
- Neutral→UnattractiveThe study or the metallurgy does not hold
It needs any of:
- ○A fuller study, or the forecaster's next update, prices scandium well below $3,250 a kilogram.watched as it happens
- ○Full-scale processing fails to match the pilot plant's rare-earth recoveries.watched as it happens
We would also be wrong if
- No binding loan for construction is signed by the end of 2028.
- Scandium buyers sign only at prices far below the study's.
- World scandium use stays near 60 tonnes through 2028.
What is coming
- 12 November 2026 Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026: Whether a scandium buyer binds, the Traxys equity investment or any construction debt becomes binding, or whether more shares were sold first.
Every dated event ahead
- 12 November 2026 Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026: Whether a scandium buyer binds, the Traxys equity investment or any construction debt becomes binding, or whether more shares were sold first.
- 13 November 2026 $1.75 warrants expire: About 1.8M warrants deep in the money; exercise adds a few million dollars and shares, a small step in the dilution already scored.
- February 2027 Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 31 December 2026: Portal spending against its budget, cash burn against the $65M to $75M plan, and any EXIM board decision.
- April 2027 2027 annual meeting; shareholder rights plan lapses unless renewed: Whether the board seeks to renew the takeover defence, and the first vote on pay after the new bonus plan paid 169.5%.
Since we wrote this
Written
26 Aug
Price the thesis read
$4.47
25 Aug
Latest close
$3.60
close, · -19.5% since
- 16 OctNewsSeptember-quarter cash $405.1M; Traxys deal lapses without EXIM by 2027Preliminary cash and spending matched plan. The Traxys filing adds that either side can cancel if EXIM has not approved the loan by the end of 2027. The view held.
- 13 OctNewsTraxys signed a binding ferroniobium deal; scandium still unsoldA 15-year take-or-pay for half the niobium alloy was signed, so all of it is now under contract. Nothing binds a scandium buyer or the mine's loan, so the view held.
- 5 OctThesis reviewThe bet now names what it ridesThe owner asked that every bet name the macro trend behind it, after BWXT's bet was missing its chief executive's case for nuclear over gas.
- 4 OctThesis reviewOwner's checklist: revenue streams, cost of growth, management, catalystsThe owner's checklist found the method silent on who runs the company, what growth costs, where the money comes from and what is dated ahead; this pass fills those four blocks from the annual report's Part III and the proxy.
- 27 SepEarningsStudy filed: it matches, but scandium's price was raised 65%. View heldThe annual report filed the engineering report the thesis was waiting for. Its numbers match the August release, but the scandium price comes from one forecaster's revision this year, and nothing for scandium is signed.
- 26 SepThesis reviewPrice stated as 3.5 cents on the study dollar; view heldThe summary still said the market paid about 8 cents per dollar of study value. After the 20.8% fall from the $4.47 the thesis used, it pays about 3.5 cents.
- 25 SepPrice moveShares down 18.2% with no news. View heldOnly the price moved, which makes the chance on the mine cheaper, not the case stronger. Nothing about the study, the scandium market or the financing changed.
- 26 AugThesis writtenNeutral, medium convictionThe August study's own revenue split, set against the government's measure of the scandium market, turned a rare-earth story into a scandium one.
Also checked 3 times with nothing new to act on.
Sources 20
Where this came from
Sources - 20
Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.
- S01primarycompany filing2025-09-11Item 1 business and the competition section, the corporate structure and the 80.42% holding in Elk Creek Resources, headcount, the two filed ferroniobium offtake exhibits, the 2022 feasibility study's physical and cost tables, the five-year commodity price table, the metallurgy and rare-earth-recovery risk factors, and the statement that one Brazilian producer supplies about 85% of the world's niobiumbacksC02C16C21C24C26C28C35C37
- S02primarycompany filing2026-05-14cash, working capital and the whole balance sheet, share counts at both ends of the nine months, the five equity offerings and their prices, the $435.3M of financing inflows, construction in progress, the FEA Materials purchase, the EXIM application history and the two-thirds-debt funding intention, and the $1,141.0M upfront capital figure from the technical report summary filed with the FY2025 annual reportbacksC01C18C19C21C22C41
- S03primarycompany release2026-08-10the whole 2026 study: pre-tax and after-tax value at an 8% discount, the internal rates of return, $1,849M of upfront capital over 35 months, the 40-year life, life-of-mine revenue of $37,435M split across eight products, the per-product price and volume assumptions, the 45.9 million tons of reserves and their grades, and the company's own statement that scandium demand rests on fuel cells for artificial-intelligence data centres
scandium is used in solid oxide fuel cells, which are increasingly being deployed to provide reliable, on-site power for energy-intensive artificial intelligence data centers
backsC03C04C05C32 - S04primarycompany release2026-08-04the memorandum's contemplated volume of up to 15 tonnes a year over ten years, its non-binding status, the Department of War Title III award behind the collaboration, and the company's own statement that it plans approximately 100 tonnes a year of scandium oxide
The MOU is non-binding, and both companies have agreed to negotiate in good faith a definitive agreement as rapidly as possible. There is no assurance that a definitive agreement will be reached, or as to its eventual terms.
backsC08C11 - S05primarygovernment data2026-02-01USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries, February 2026 - Scandium United States Geological Surveyworld scandium consumption, production and capacity for 2025, the global price series for 99.99% scandium oxide powder, China's April 2025 export controls, the Sorel-Tracy expansion and the Defense Logistics Agency stockpile procurement, the Nyngan mining licence, the $10M and $29.9M Department of War awards, and the named substitute materials
The U.S. Geological Survey estimated that global consumption of scandium oxide in 2025 was 60 tons, and that the primary global uses were aerospace alloys, other alloys, and solid oxide fuel cells.
backsC06C07C09C10C31C33C34C35C40 - S06primarygovernment data2026-02-01USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries, February 2026 - Niobium (Columbium) United States Geological Surveyworld niobium mine production and the Brazilian share, United States apparent consumption and zero domestic mine production, United States reserves of 210,000 tons, the ferroniobium average unit value, the named substitute alloying elements, and the agency's own description of the Nebraska project
Once operational, the site would be the only niobium mine and primary niobium-processing facility in the United States.
backsC12C13 - S07primarygovernment data2025-01-01USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries, January 2025 - Scandium United States Geological Surveythe earlier consumption and production estimates that give the rate of change, and the older United States yearend price series for 99.99% scandium oxide in 5-kilogram lots which the company's own annual report quotes
In 2024, the global consumption of scandium oxide was estimated to be about 30 to 40 tons per year with a global capacity estimate of 80 tons per year.
backsC07C34 - S08primarycompany release2025-11-01a competitor's own account of the North American scandium market: the Sorel-Tracy demonstration plant, its 2022 start, the expansion to nine tonnes a year, the roughly C$25M from the Canada Growth Fund and the Government of Canada offtake
currently accounts for the entirety of North American scandium supply
backsC10 - S09primaryvendor data2026-08-26NB research pack, frozen at content/NB/research-pack.jsoncontent/NB/research-pack.jsonprice, market value, the 20-day range, the 252-day return, theme co-movement against MP Materials and USA Rare Earth, the analyst split and estimates, insider transaction codes, and the measured price reaction to each news itembacksC29C30C38
- S10primarycompany release2025-10-14the record cash balance and share count at 30 September 2025, the three offerings closed in that quarter with their prices and gross proceeds, the $32.1M non-cash loss on earnout and warrant liabilities, and the 407 acres boughtbacksC19
- S11primaryregulator2026-08-26SEC EDGAR full submissions index for CIK 0001512228 United States Securities and Exchange Commissionthe complete filing history, which shows nothing filed after 29 July 2026 and therefore no filing behind either the August feasibility study or the Lockheed memorandumbacksC27
- S12primarycompany filing2026-04-06the November 2025 rights plan, its extension to the 2027 annual meeting, and the 11,300,000 shares available under the amended long-term incentive planbacksC39
- S13primarygovernment data2026-02-01USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries, February 2026 - Scandium, salient statistics price table United States Geological Surveythe 2021 to 2025 global average price series for 99.99% scandium oxide powder, against which the study's assumption is measured. Same document and same origin as S05; listed separately because the figures sit in a table rather than in the narrative S05 quotes
Price, global, dollars per kilogram, range of average values: Scandium oxide, powder, 99.99% purity, 5- to 100-kilogram lot size: 890-1,000 820-880 700-740 660-670 640
backsC06C07 - S14primarycompany release2025-11-01the nine-tonne target and the size of the Canada Growth Fund investment. Same document and origin as S08, listed separately so the figures the threat claim leans on sit inside a quoted passage
CGF will invest approximately C$25 million to support production, expanding the facility's nameplate capacity to nine tonnes per annum
backsC10 - S15primarycompany release2026-08-04the volume and term of the Lockheed memorandum. Same release and origin as S04, which carries the non-binding statement
the potential purchase of up to 15 tonnes/year of scandium oxide from NioCorp, in either oxide form or in the form of aluminum-scandium alloys, over the next 10 years
backsC11 - S16primarygovernment data2026-02-01USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries, February 2026 - Niobium, United States consumption and the Brazilian share United States Geological Surveythe denominator the planned niobium output is measured against, and its direction of travel. Same document and origin as S06, which carries the agency's statement about the Nebraska site
In 2025, U.S. niobium apparent consumption (measured in niobium content) was estimated to be 9,900 tons, a 6% decrease from that in 2024.
backsC12 - S17primarycompany filing2026-09-25the cover share count, Item 1 headcount and the EXIM history, the funding mix of about 65% debt and 35% equity and the costs outside the capital estimate, the definition of the 2026 study as a pre-feasibility study, the subsidiary table with 81.33% of Elk Creek Resources, the Department of War reimbursements received, the portal project budget and spend, the audited balance sheet at 30 June 2026 and the AI-demand risk factor; and, read 2026-10-04, Part III: the officers' appointment dates and careers, the fiscal 2026 pay tables, the annual incentive plan's weights and payout, the fiscal 2027 pay changes, the beneficial ownership table at 25 September 2026 and the CEO loan, plus the income statement, cash flow statement and warrant expiry tablebacksC01C02C03C11C16C17C20C21C22C24C26C27C32C35C36C37C46C47C48C49C50C51C52
- S18primarycompany filing2026-09-25S-K 1300 technical report summary for the 2026 Elk Creek Study, Exhibit 96.1 to the FY2026 Form 10-Kthe qualified persons' statement of why the study is pre-feasibility, the mineral reserve at 30 June 2026 including rare earths, the economic results, the year-by-year scandium price table, the resource-versus-model price comparison, OnG Commodities' August 2025 and June 2026 scandium forecasts and supply-demand table, and the draft Traxys agreement and the two ferroniobium offtakes' volumesbacksC03C04C05C26C27C28C32C36C37C43C44C45
- S19primarycompany filing2026-02-25the fiscal 2025 pay design: no formal benchmarks or performance criteria, no cash bonus for fiscal 2025, options granted ad hoc and fully vested on the grant date; and the beneficial ownership table at 9 February 2026backsC47C48
- S20primarycompany release2026-10-13The signed Traxys agreement: terms, what it replaces, and the condition that deliveries depend on financing and construction. No 8-K carried it by 13 October.
Under the binding Agreement, Traxys will purchase, on a take-or-pay basis, 50% of NioCorp’s planned ferroniobium production from its Elk Creek Project over the first 15 years of production.
backsC26