NioCorp (NB)

השורה התחתונה

הציון שלנו: ניטרלית. זו חברה קטנה עם מזומנים ומכרה בנברסקה שמעולם לא נבנה, וכעסק היא חלשה: אין מכירות ואין הלוואה לבנייה. המחיר הוא הימור קטן, כמה סנטים על כל דולר ששווה המכרה לפי המחקר של החברה עצמה, ולכן הוא הוגן. כהימור היא שבירה: מכירות לא יכולות להגיע בתוך שלוש שנים, ואם ההימור נכשל בעלי המניות נשארים עם מזומנים שהולכים ומתכווצים. לדעתנו ההנחה במחיר מוצדקת, כי המחקר נשען על סקנדיום, מתכת שהעולם כמעט לא משתמש בה, במחיר שמנבא אחד העלה בחדות, בלי קונה חתום.

הטיעון לטווח הארוךממשלות רוצות מתכות קריטיות שמופקות מחוץ לסין, וזה יהיה מכרה הניוביום היחיד בארה״ב; זה עובד רק אם המכרה ימומן ויבנה.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 8 טענות

C02עובדהhigh confidence

NioCorp had fourteen full-time employees and four contract employees at 30 June 2026, against seven and one a year earlier, and retains outside consultants for specialised work.

sourceNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026primary NioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2025primary

2026-09-27editedThe FY2026 annual report gives the 30 June 2026 headcount: fourteen full-time and four contract employees, double a year earlier.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-08-26

C17עובדהhigh confidence

Cash and cash equivalents were $415.0M at 30 June 2026 with working capital of $402.3M, against total liabilities of $37.1M - $25.2M of it warrant and earnout liabilities carried at fair value - and no borrowings. The company plans to spend $65M to $75M over the next twelve months.

sourceNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026primary

2026-09-27editedRe-sourced to the audited 30 June 2026 balance sheet in the FY2026 annual report.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-08-26

C23אומדןmedium confidence

At $3.54 the whole company is worth about $516.3M; less $415.0M of cash that leaves about $101.3M of enterprise value against $2.80B of the study's after-tax value attributable to NioCorp's 81.33% of Elk Creek Resources - about 3.6 cents on the dollar, down from 8.4 cents at the $4.47 the thesis was struck against.

derivedStruck on the 2026-09-25 close of $3.54 (the 2026-09-24 close was the same). 145,849,630 shares on the 25 September 2026 cover of the FY2026 annual report times $3.54 is $516.3M. Cash and cash equivalents of $415.0M at 30 June 2026 with no borrowings (C17), so enterprise value is $101.3M. The filed study's after-tax value of $3,441M (C03) times the 81.33% of Elk Creek Resources the annual report's subsidiary table gives (C24) is $2,798.6M; $101.3M divided by $2,798.6M is 3.6%. At the thesis the same arithmetic gave $231.6M against $2,767M, 8.4%. The Class B shares exchangeable into NioCorp stock are excluded from both sides.

against this

The denominator is a pre-feasibility study, and 38% of the revenue behind it is scandium priced 5.4 times the observed 2025 market on one consultant's revised forecast (C04, C05, C06, C43).
The numerator ignores the equity still to be raised: funding the intended equity third of the capital cost at today's price would roughly double the share count (C25).
The study's value is struck at an 8% discount rate on a single unbuilt underground mine with an unproven rare-earth circuit - a rate that assumes construction and commissioning risk away (C36).

2026-09-25editedre-struck on the 2026-09-24 close after an 18.2% price decline since the thesis; cash and the study's value are unchanged
2026-09-26editedThe basis still showed the arithmetic at $4.47 after the claim was re-struck at $3.54 on 2026-09-25; it now shows the $3.54 arithmetic and names both bases for the fall: 20.8% from the $4.47 pack close of 2026-08-25 the figures were struck at, 18.2% from the $4.33 close of 2026-08-26, the thesis date.
2026-09-27editedRe-struck on the 30 June 2026 balance sheet, the 25 September 2026 cover share count and the 81.33% stake the FY2026 annual report gives, at the unchanged $3.54 close of 2026-09-25.

current state · 2026-09-25written 2026-08-26

C09עובדהhigh confidence

USGS estimated global consumption of scandium oxide at 60 tonnes in 2025, global production at about 80 tonnes and global capacity at over 90 tonnes a year, all produced as a byproduct of nickel and titanium process streams, tailings and residues.

sourceUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries, February 2026 - Scandiumprimary

historical · 2025written 2026-08-26

C42אומדןmedium confidence

The entire world scandium oxide market was worth roughly $38M in 2025 - 60 tonnes of consumption at $640 a kilogram - while the study's scandium line alone averages $358M a year.

derived60 tonnes (C09) is 60,000 kilograms; at the $640 a kilogram USGS reports for 2025 (C06, the price series quoted at S13) that is $38.4M. The study's scandium revenue of $14,331M (C04) over 40 years averages $358M a year. The two figures are on different bases - one is today's market at today's price, the other a forty-year average at an assumed price - and the point of putting them side by side is the size of the gap the study needs the market to close, not that one is a forecast of the other.

against this

USGS revised the market up sharply in one year - consumption from 30 to 40 tonnes to 60, production from 40 to 80 - so the base is moving fast (C34).
A new low-cost supplier can create its own market: scandium is expensive partly because it is scarce, and aluminium-scandium alloy uses that are uneconomic at $3,446 a kilogram may not be at a fraction of it. That is the company's own case, and it is the reverse of the arithmetic above.
The value comparison uses the oxide price; the company intends to sell master alloy as well, which carries a different price (C41).

current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-08-26

C43עובדהhigh confidence

The filed report names OnG Commodities as the independent scandium market consultant. OnG's August 2025 forecast priced NioCorp's scandium at $1,500 to $2,500 a kilogram for 2030 to 2035; its June 2026 revision, driven by fuel-cell demand from AI data centres, raised it to $3,250 through 2036, and the study's first twelve years use that $3,250.

sourceS-K 1300 technical report summary for the 2026 Elk Creek…primary

against this

OnG's own estimate of the 2025 price is about $800 a kilogram outside China, and USGS reports $640 (C06).
OnG writes that there are no bankable scandium offtakes in sight, and that a large downturn in AI capital spending would drastically reduce scandium demand and its price outlook (C45).
The years from thirteen onward are priced at $3,501 a kilogram, beyond the end of OnG's forecast, and the report's price table cites NioCorp alongside OnG as its source.

current state · 2026-09-25written 2026-09-27

C37עובדהhigh confidence

The 2022 feasibility study assumed a four-year pre-production period and commercial production in 2025. At 30 June 2026 only the portal was being built - $5.6M spent of a $44.6M budget - and the 35-month construction clock in the 2026 study starts only once financing lets the company authorise the full build.

sourceNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026primary S-K 1300 technical report summary for the 2026 Elk Creek…primary NioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2025primary

2026-09-27editedRe-sourced to the FY2026 annual report: portal construction began in February 2026; main construction awaits financing.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-08-26

C22טענת ההנהלהhigh confidence

Management expects to fund the $1.85B of upfront capital with about 65% debt and 35% equity, and says it has not obtained a commitment for any portion of the debt. It also has to fund costs outside that estimate: financing fees, interest during construction, start-up working capital, reclamation assurance, overhead until production and any overrun beyond the contingency.

sourceNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026primary NioCorp Form 10-Q, quarter ended 31 March 2026primary

against this

The debt in question is the EXIM loan, applied for in June 2023 and still uncommitted three years later (C21).
The same filing says future equity financings will likely be completed at a discount to the market price and will likely be dilutive, and that there is significant uncertainty that any additional financing could be secured.
Every dollar raised so far has been equity, not debt (C19).

2026-09-27editedThe FY2026 annual report states the mix as about 65% debt and 35% equity, not two-thirds, says no commitment exists for any part of the debt, and lists costs outside the $1.85B that must also be funded.

forwardwritten 2026-08-26

01

החברה

ל-NioCorp אין מכירות. העסק היחיד שלה הוא פיתוח Elk Creek, מרבץ בדרום-מזרח נברסקה, והיא צריכה עוד כסף כדי לבנות אותו.

במרבץ יש ניוביום, מתכת שמחזקת פלדה. ארה״ב לא מפיקה ניוביום כלל, וברזיל מפיקה כ-93% מהתפוקה העולמית; הגיאולוגים של הממשלה אומרים שהפרויקט Elk Creek יהיה מכרה הניוביום האמריקאי היחיד. התוכנית גם מפיקה סקנדיום ואדמות נדירות. האדמות הנדירות נספרות עכשיו ברזרבות המוכחות של המכרה, אבל השיטה להפקתן נבדקה רק במפעלי ניסוי קטנים.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 4 טענות

C01עובדהhigh confidence

NioCorp earns no operating revenue; its only business is developing the Elk Creek project in southeastern Nebraska, and it will need more capital to build it. It lost $48.6M attributable to shareholders in the year to 30 June 2026.

sourceNioCorp Form 10-Q, quarter ended 31 March 2026primary NioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026primary

2026-09-27editedThe FY2026 annual report confirms no revenue for the year to 30 June 2026 and a net loss attributable of $48.6M.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-08-26

C12עובדהhigh confidence

USGS put world niobium mine production at 112,000 tonnes of niobium content in both 2024 and 2025 with Brazil about 93% of it, United States apparent consumption at 9,900 tonnes in 2025, United States mine production at zero, and United States reserves at 210,000 tonnes.

sourceUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries, February 2026 - Niobium,…primary USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries, February 2026 - Niobium…primary

historical · 2025written 2026-08-26

C13עובדהhigh confidence

USGS writes in its own niobium chapter that once operational the Nebraska site would be the only niobium mine and primary niobium-processing facility in the United States.

sourceUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries, February 2026 - Niobium…primary

current state · 2026-02-01written 2026-08-26

C36עובדהmedium confidence

The filed study rests on a reserve of 45.93 million tons at 30 June 2026 - 7.57 million proven and 38.36 million probable - grading 0.759% niobium pentoxide, 69.3 parts per million scandium, 2.68% titanium dioxide and 0.34% rare-earth oxides. The rare earths are now inside the reserve; recovering them has been tested at bench and pilot scale, not in a commercial plant.

sourceS-K 1300 technical report summary for the 2026 Elk Creek…primary NioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026primary

2026-09-27editedThe filed reserve is dated 30 June 2026, not 2 April, and now carries rare earths at 0.34%, correcting this claim's statement that no rare-earth reserve could be declared; commercial-scale rare-earth recovery is still unproven.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-08-26

ממה היא מרוויחה

בינתיים כלום. אם המכרה ייבנה, הוא ימכור שמונה מוצרים במשך 40 שנה. לפי המחקר, ההכנסות לאורך חיי המכרה יעמדו על 37.44 מיליארד דולר: סקנדיום 38.3%, ניוביום 26.1%, חמישה מוצרי אדמות נדירות 25.1% וטיטניום 10.5%. לפי המספרים של החברה עצמה, זו פחות חברת אדמות נדירות ויותר חברת סקנדיום.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 2 טענות

C03טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence

The 2026 Elk Creek Study, filed on 25 September 2026 as a qualified-person technical report summary, puts the project's value at $4.11B before tax and $3.44B after tax at an 8% discount, on $1.85B of upfront capital spent over 35 months and a 40-year operating life. Under SEC rules it is a pre-feasibility study, not a feasibility study: the qualified persons say more plant engineering is needed to cut the 14% contingency on the capital estimate to 10% or less.

sourceS-K 1300 technical report summary for the 2026 Elk Creek…primary NioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026primary NioCorp 2026 Elk Creek Feasibility Study results releaseprimary

against this

The filed report classifies the study as pre-feasibility, a lower confidence level than the feasibility study the August release announced, and its scandium price rests on one consultant's June 2026 revision (C43).
The same company's 2022 study assumed commercial production in 2025; construction had not started at 31 March 2026 (C37).
The upfront capital estimate rose 62% between the two studies, which is what a four-year-old cost estimate is worth (C28).

2026-09-27editedThe study is now filed as a qualified-person report, and that report and the 10-K both classify it as a pre-feasibility study, not a feasibility study as the release and this thesis called it; the figures reconcile exactly.

forwardwritten 2026-08-26

C04טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence

Over the 40-year life the study puts revenue at $37.44B: scandium $14.33B or 38.3%, niobium $9.78B or 26.1%, the five rare-earth products together $9.38B or 25.1%, and titanium $3.95B or 10.5%.

sourceS-K 1300 technical report summary for the 2026 Elk Creek…primary NioCorp 2026 Elk Creek Feasibility Study results releaseprimary

against this

The split appears only in the August release. No filing carries it, so it cannot be checked against a document signed by a qualified person (C27).
The revenue weighting is a function of the assumed prices, and the scandium price is the one furthest from anything observed (C05, C06).

2026-09-27editedReconciled to the filed technical report summary: $37,435M of revenue with scandium $14,331M, niobium $9,781M, rare earths $9,378M and titanium $3,946M.

forwardwritten 2026-08-26

פירוט מקורות ההכנסה

מקור	משקל במכירות (המחקר של 2026, תכנון ל-40 שנה)	איך
תחמוצת סקנדיום (מתוכנן)	38.3%	היא תמכור תחמוצת סקנדיום וסגסוגת ללקוחות בתחומי הסגסוגות, תאי הדלק והתעופה; אף קונה אינו מחויב לרכוש אותם.
פרוניוביום (מתוכנן)	26.1%	היא תמכור את הסגסוגת שמחזקת פלדה: 50% ל-Traxys בהסכם take-or-pay ל-15 שנה שנחתם ב-13 באוקטובר, ו-50% ל-ThyssenKrupp בהסכם רכישה ל-10 שנים.
תחמוצות של אדמות נדירות (מתוכנן)	25.1%	חמישה מוצרי אדמות נדירות מופרדים; ההפקה הוכחה עד כה רק במפעלי ניסוי.
טיטניום דו-חמצני (מתוכנן)	10.5%	טיטניום דו-חמצני מופק מאותו עפרה כמו שאר המוצרים; ל-Traxys זכות בלעדית לשווק אותו, ואף קונה אינו מחויב לרכוש.

ההנהלה

המנכ״ל סמית׳ מנהל את NioCorp מאז 2013, ומועד תחילת הייצור ב-2025 שהבטיח המחקר של 2022 חלף כשרק פתח המכרה החל להיבנות. בעלי העניין מחזיקים כ-7%, בעיקר באופציות ולא במניות. הבונוס משולם לפי אבני דרך שהדירקטוריון שופט, וגיוס כסף נחשב לאחת מהן; השכר לטווח ארוך הוא אופציות, ושום דבר בו לא קשור לכמות המניות החדשות שנמכרות.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 4 טענות

C46עובדהhigh confidence

Mark A. Smith has been chief executive and a director since 23 September 2013 and president and executive chairman since 31 May 2015; he ran Molycorp from 2008 to 2012 and has also been chief executive of IBC Advanced Alloys since July 2020. Neal Shah has been chief financial officer since 1 July 2016 and Scott Honan, who joined in May 2014, chief operating officer since July 2020.

sourceNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026primary

current state · 2026-09-25written 2026-10-04

C47עובדהhigh confidence

All ten directors and executive officers as a group beneficially owned 10,476,557 shares, 6.84%, at 25 September 2026, counting options, warrants and exchangeable Class B shares; the largest are director Dean Kehler at 2.49% and Mark Smith at 2.36%, of which 2,318,819 are shares he holds outright. BlackRock, at 6.18%, is the only holder above 5%, and there is one class of voting common share.

sourceNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026primary NioCorp definitive proxy statement (DEF 14A) for the 6 April…primary

against this

Most of the group's holding is options and warrants rather than shares owned: Smith holds 2,318,819 shares outright, about 1.6% of the 145,849,630 outstanding, and the CFO and COO about 75,000 and 56,000 each.

current state · 2026-09-25written 2026-10-04

C48עובדהhigh confidence

For fiscal 2026 the board adopted an annual incentive plan late in the year and paid it at 169.5% of target: 45% on board-set corporate milestones for project development, financing and readiness, among them capital raises substantially above expectations; 10% on safety; 45% on individual performance assessed qualitatively. The CEO's total pay was $2,095,909 against $451,000 a year earlier, and options vest over two years with no performance condition.

sourceNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026primary NioCorp definitive proxy statement (DEF 14A) for the 6 April…primary

against this

Before fiscal 2026 there was no formula at all: the fiscal 2025 proxy says the committee set no benchmarks or performance criteria, paid no cash bonus and granted options fully vested on the grant date.

historical · fiscal year ended 30 June 2026written 2026-10-04

C37עובדהhigh confidence

The 2022 feasibility study assumed a four-year pre-production period and commercial production in 2025. At 30 June 2026 only the portal was being built - $5.6M spent of a $44.6M budget - and the 35-month construction clock in the 2026 study starts only once financing lets the company authorise the full build.

sourceNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026primary S-K 1300 technical report summary for the 2026 Elk Creek…primary NioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2025primary

2026-09-27editedRe-sourced to the FY2026 annual report: portal construction began in February 2026; main construction awaits financing.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-08-26

02

היתרון התחרותי, ומי מאיים עליו

למה הלקוחות נשארים

היתרון הוא גיאולוגי. Elk Creek הוא מרבץ הניוביום המשמעותי היחיד במדינה שיש בה רזרבות של 210 אלף טון ואין בה הפקה, ומתחרה עשיר יותר לא יכול לבנות מרבץ נוסף.

גורמים חיצוניים מזכירים את המרבץ בשמו: Department of War העניק לפרויקט כ-10.0 מיליון דולר באוגוסט 2025, הגיאולוגים של הממשלה מציינים את האתר, וחברת Lockheed Martin חתמה על מזכר הבנות עם מכרה שעדיין לא קיים.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 4 טענות

C12עובדהhigh confidence

USGS put world niobium mine production at 112,000 tonnes of niobium content in both 2024 and 2025 with Brazil about 93% of it, United States apparent consumption at 9,900 tonnes in 2025, United States mine production at zero, and United States reserves at 210,000 tonnes.

sourceUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries, February 2026 - Niobium,…primary USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries, February 2026 - Niobium…primary

historical · 2025written 2026-08-26

C13עובדהhigh confidence

USGS writes in its own niobium chapter that once operational the Nebraska site would be the only niobium mine and primary niobium-processing facility in the United States.

sourceUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries, February 2026 - Niobium…primary

current state · 2026-02-01written 2026-08-26

C35עובדהhigh confidence

The Department of War awarded about $10.0M under Title III of the Defense Production Act to Elk Creek Resources in August 2025, payable as milestone reimbursements for feasibility-study engineering, reserve drilling and updated cost estimates; about $8.1M had been received by 30 June 2026.

sourceNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026primary NioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2025primary USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries, February 2026 - Scandiumprimary

2026-09-27editedThe FY2026 annual report says about $8.1M of the $10.0M had been received by 30 June 2026.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-08-26

C11עובדהhigh confidence

The memorandum signed with Lockheed Martin on 4 August 2026 contemplates buying up to 15 tonnes a year of scandium oxide or aluminium-scandium alloy over ten years, and the company states it is non-binding with no assurance a definitive agreement will be reached. The FY2026 annual report does not name Lockheed; it refers only to non-binding memoranda covering portions of scandium production.

sourceNioCorp release, 4 August 2026 - the memorandum's…primary NioCorp release: Lockheed Martin and NioCorp Sign MOUprimary NioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026primary

2026-09-27editedThe FY2026 annual report does not name Lockheed Martin; it describes non-binding memoranda covering portions of scandium production, and the technical report lists scandium offtake as subject to a memorandum with Traxys.

current state · 2026-09-25written 2026-08-26

האיום

היצע סקנדיום כבר קיים. המפעל של Rio Tinto בקוויבק מייצר את כל הסקנדיום של צפון אמריקה מתוך פסולת תהליכים, וקנדה משלמת להרחבתו לתשעה טון בשנה. אוסטרליה העניקה רישיון למכרה סקנדיום באוקטובר 2025, ויצרניות מטוסים יכולות להשתמש במקום זאת בטיטניום או בסיבי פחמן. בניוביום, היצרנית הברזילאית מחזיקה בכ-85% מההיצע העולמי ויכולה להוריד את המחיר.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 4 טענות

C10עובדהhigh confidence

Rio Tinto's Sorel-Tracy plant in Quebec began production in 2022 and by its own account makes the entirety of North American scandium supply; the Canada Growth Fund is investing about C$25M to take its nameplate capacity to nine tonnes a year, alongside an offtake in which the Government of Canada commits to buy a volume of scandium.

sourceRio Tinto news release: Rio Tinto and Canada Growth Fund…primary Rio Tinto news release, 1 November 2025 - capacity and…primary USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries, February 2026 - Scandiumprimary

current state · 2025-11-01written 2026-08-26

C40עובדהmedium confidence

The Australian Government granted a mining licence in October 2025 for the Nyngan scandium project in New South Wales.

sourceUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries, February 2026 - Scandiumprimary

current state · 2025-10-31written 2026-08-26

C31עובדהhigh confidence

USGS states that titanium and aluminium high-strength alloys and carbon-fibre materials may substitute for scandium in high-performance scandium-alloy applications, while in some applications relying on scandium's unique properties substitution is not possible.

sourceUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries, February 2026 - Scandiumprimary

current state · 2026-02-01written 2026-08-26

C16עובדהhigh confidence

The company's own annual report states that Companhia Brasileira de Metalurgia e Mineracao supplies approximately 85% of the world's niobium, and warns that any attempt by that supplier to suppress the price would hurt NioCorp's value.

sourceNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026primary NioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2025primary

2026-09-27editedThe FY2026 annual report repeats the statement unchanged.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-08-26

המתחרות: RIO, ועוד שלוש: פרטיות, פיתוח פנימי של לקוחות או נסחרות בחו״ל.

פירוט המתחרים

סימול	מתחרה	שלב	בסיס להשוואה
RIO	מפעל תחמוצת הסקנדיום של Rio Tinto בסורל-טרייסי, קוויבקבסיס להשוואה: מוצר שונה	כבר נמכר	מוצר שונה
	פרויקט הסקנדיום Nyngan בניו סאות׳ ויילסבסיס להשוואה: נסחרות בחו״ל	הוכרז	נסחרת בחו״ל
לא נסחרת בבורסה	סגסוגות טיטניום ואלומיניום בחוזק גבוה, וחומרי סיבי פחמןבסיס להשוואה: לא נסחרות בבורסה	כבר נמכר	לא נסחרת בבורסה
חברה פרטית	Companhia Brasileira de Metalurgia e Mineracaoבסיס להשוואה: חברה פרטית	כבר נמכר	חברה פרטית

03

פוטנציאל הצמיחה

גודל ההזדמנות

העולם כולו השתמש ב-60 טון תחמוצת סקנדיום ב-2025, במחיר של כ-640 דולר לקילוגרם: כ-38 מיליון דולר בסך הכול. הייצור עמד על כ-80 טון, עם יכולת ייצור של יותר מ-90.

קו הסקנדיום במחקר לבדו מניב בממוצע 358 מיליון דולר בשנה, כ-9.4 פעמים השוק כולו. היצרנית המערבית הגדולה ביותר, Rio Tinto, מרחיבה את הייצור לתשעה טון בשנה.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 4 טענות

C09עובדהhigh confidence

USGS estimated global consumption of scandium oxide at 60 tonnes in 2025, global production at about 80 tonnes and global capacity at over 90 tonnes a year, all produced as a byproduct of nickel and titanium process streams, tailings and residues.

sourceUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries, February 2026 - Scandiumprimary

historical · 2025written 2026-08-26

C06עובדהhigh confidence

USGS reports a global average price for 99.99% scandium oxide powder in 5- to 100-kilogram lots of $640 a kilogram in 2025, down from a range of $890 to $1,000 in 2021.

sourceUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries, February 2026 - Scandium,…primary USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries, February 2026 - Scandiumprimary

historical · 2025written 2026-08-26

C10עובדהhigh confidence

Rio Tinto's Sorel-Tracy plant in Quebec began production in 2022 and by its own account makes the entirety of North American scandium supply; the Canada Growth Fund is investing about C$25M to take its nameplate capacity to nine tonnes a year, alongside an offtake in which the Government of Canada commits to buy a volume of scandium.

sourceRio Tinto news release: Rio Tinto and Canada Growth Fund…primary Rio Tinto news release, 1 November 2025 - capacity and…primary USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries, February 2026 - Scandiumprimary

current state · 2025-11-01written 2026-08-26

C01עובדהhigh confidence

NioCorp earns no operating revenue; its only business is developing the Elk Creek project in southeastern Nebraska, and it will need more capital to build it. It lost $48.6M attributable to shareholders in the year to 30 June 2026.

sourceNioCorp Form 10-Q, quarter ended 31 March 2026primary NioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026primary

2026-09-27editedThe FY2026 annual report confirms no revenue for the year to 30 June 2026 and a net loss attributable of $48.6M.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-08-26

מי כבר התחייב

שני קוני הניוביום מחויבים עכשיו: Traxys חתמה ב-13 באוקטובר על הסכם ל-15 שנה על 50% מהפרוניוביום של המכרה, הסגסוגת שבה נמכר הניוביום, ו-ThyssenKrupp לוקחת את היתר. בסקנדיום, המוצר הגדול ביותר בתחשיב, אין שום התחייבות מחייבת: Traxys רשאית לקנות אבל לא חייבת, ומזכר ההבנות של Lockheed Martin אינו חוזה.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 2 טענות

C26עובדהhigh confidence

On 13 October 2026 NioCorp signed a binding definitive agreement with Traxys North America: Traxys will buy 50% of planned ferroniobium on a take-or-pay basis over the first 15 years of production, replacing the earlier Traxys ferroniobium and scandium arrangements, and has the exclusive right, but not the obligation, to buy the scandium, titanium and rare earth products and to market them worldwide for 15 years. The other 50% of ferroniobium stays with ThyssenKrupp under a ten-year offtake. Deliveries depend on project financing, construction, commercial production and final ancillary terms; a Traxys equity investment of up to $30M is under discussion and not agreed. Scandium, titanium and rare earths therefore still have no binding buyer. The 8-K adds that either party may terminate the agreement if the Export-Import Bank has not given final approval of senior debt, or financial close has not happened, by 31 December 2027 (six months more if approved but not closed), and Traxys may terminate if commercial production has not begun within 60 months.

sourceNioCorp release, 13 October 2026 - definitive Traxys agreementprimary S-K 1300 technical report summary for the 2026 Elk Creek…primary NioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026primary NioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2025primary

2026-09-27editedThe filed technical report gives the two ferroniobium offtakes' volumes and terms, and describes a draft definitive agreement with Traxys, dated 13 April 2026 and unsigned, covering every other product.
2026-10-13editedThe Traxys definitive agreement was signed on 13 October: binding take-or-pay for 50% of ferroniobium over 15 years, with exclusive but non-obligatory rights over every other product. It replaces the earlier arrangement, which the filed report called an unsigned draft.
2026-10-16editedThe 8-K filed for the agreement states a termination right: either party may walk away if EXIM has not given final approval of senior debt by 31 December 2027, and Traxys if commercial production is not reached within 60 months.

current state · 2026-10-13written 2026-08-26

C11עובדהhigh confidence

The memorandum signed with Lockheed Martin on 4 August 2026 contemplates buying up to 15 tonnes a year of scandium oxide or aluminium-scandium alloy over ten years, and the company states it is non-binding with no assurance a definitive agreement will be reached. The FY2026 annual report does not name Lockheed; it refers only to non-binding memoranda covering portions of scandium production.

sourceNioCorp release, 4 August 2026 - the memorandum's…primary NioCorp release: Lockheed Martin and NioCorp Sign MOUprimary NioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026primary

2026-09-27editedThe FY2026 annual report does not name Lockheed Martin; it describes non-binding memoranda covering portions of scandium production, and the technical report lists scandium offtake as subject to a memorandum with Traxys.

current state · 2026-09-25written 2026-08-26

04

התוצאות

עלות הצמיחה

בלי מכירות, צמיחה כאן פירושה תשלום על הכנת המכרה: מחקרים, קידוחים ומשרד ראשי גדול יותר, וכולם עלו בחדות בשנה שעברה, כשהריבית על המזומנים קיזזה חלק מהעלייה. העלות האמיתית היא בניית המכרה, שעוד לא שולמה.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 3 טענות

C51עובדהhigh confidence

Operating expenses were $38.3M in fiscal 2026 against $12.0M in fiscal 2025: exploration $16.1M against $4.1M, mostly the drilling programme and the 2026 study, and general and administrative $22.2M against $7.8M. Interest on the cash brought in $9.1M against $0.1M, operating cash outflow was $15.9M against $10.7M, and $21.3M was capitalised to the project against almost nothing.

sourceNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026primary

historical · fiscal years ended 30 June 2025 and 2026written 2026-10-04

C02עובדהhigh confidence

NioCorp had fourteen full-time employees and four contract employees at 30 June 2026, against seven and one a year earlier, and retains outside consultants for specialised work.

sourceNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026primary NioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2025primary

2026-09-27editedThe FY2026 annual report gives the 30 June 2026 headcount: fourteen full-time and four contract employees, double a year earlier.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-08-26

C22טענת ההנהלהhigh confidence

Management expects to fund the $1.85B of upfront capital with about 65% debt and 35% equity, and says it has not obtained a commitment for any portion of the debt. It also has to fund costs outside that estimate: financing fees, interest during construction, start-up working capital, reclamation assurance, overhead until production and any overrun beyond the contingency.

sourceNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026primary NioCorp Form 10-Q, quarter ended 31 March 2026primary

against this

The debt in question is the EXIM loan, applied for in June 2023 and still uncommitted three years later (C21).
The same filing says future equity financings will likely be completed at a discount to the market price and will likely be dilutive, and that there is significant uncertainty that any additional financing could be secured.
Every dollar raised so far has been equity, not debt (C19).

2026-09-27editedThe FY2026 annual report states the mix as about 65% debt and 35% equity, not two-thirds, says no commitment exists for any part of the debt, and lists costs outside the $1.85B that must also be funded.

forwardwritten 2026-08-26

הדוח האחרון (14 במאי)

אין מכירות לדווח. בשנה שהסתיימה ב-30 ביוני 2026 החברה הפסידה 48.6 מיליון דולר וגייסה הון: היא סיימה את השנה עם 415.0 מיליון דולר במזומן וללא הלוואות, ומתכננת להוציא בין 65 ל-75 מיליון דולר ב-12 החודשים הבאים.

הבנייה כמעט לא החלה. רק פתח המכרה בבנייה, ו-5.6 מיליון דולר הוצאו מתוך תקציב של 44.6 מיליון דולר. הבנייה המלאה לוקחת 35 חודשים מהיום שבו היא ממומנת; המחקר הקודם תכנן ייצור ראשון ב-2025.

מה זה אומר על התזההדוח שינה מעט, וזו בדיוק הנקודה. אין מכירות, יש הרבה מזומנים ואין חוב, אבל הבנייה כמעט לא התחילה ולוח הזמנים ממשיך להידחות. ההימור הקטן שהמחיר משקף נראה מתאים, ולכן ההערכה נשארת ניטרלית.

הרבעון בפירוט

רווח למניה $-0.02 לעומת $-0.02 צפוי; $0.01 לפי הדוחות, והפער הוא הסעיפים שהחברה מנטרלת.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 4 טענות

C01עובדהhigh confidence

NioCorp earns no operating revenue; its only business is developing the Elk Creek project in southeastern Nebraska, and it will need more capital to build it. It lost $48.6M attributable to shareholders in the year to 30 June 2026.

sourceNioCorp Form 10-Q, quarter ended 31 March 2026primary NioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026primary

2026-09-27editedThe FY2026 annual report confirms no revenue for the year to 30 June 2026 and a net loss attributable of $48.6M.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-08-26

C17עובדהhigh confidence

Cash and cash equivalents were $415.0M at 30 June 2026 with working capital of $402.3M, against total liabilities of $37.1M - $25.2M of it warrant and earnout liabilities carried at fair value - and no borrowings. The company plans to spend $65M to $75M over the next twelve months.

sourceNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026primary

2026-09-27editedRe-sourced to the audited 30 June 2026 balance sheet in the FY2026 annual report.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-08-26

C20עובדהhigh confidence

Construction in progress on the balance sheet was $5.7M at 30 June 2026 against nil a year earlier. It is the portal - the underground mine's main entrance - which began in February 2026 on a $44.6M budget and had $5.6M spent by 30 June.

sourceNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026primary

2026-09-27editedRe-sourced to the FY2026 annual report: construction in progress $5.7M at 30 June 2026, all of it the portal project.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-08-26

C37עובדהhigh confidence

The 2022 feasibility study assumed a four-year pre-production period and commercial production in 2025. At 30 June 2026 only the portal was being built - $5.6M spent of a $44.6M budget - and the 35-month construction clock in the 2026 study starts only once financing lets the company authorise the full build.

sourceNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026primary S-K 1300 technical report summary for the 2026 Elk Creek…primary NioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2025primary

2026-09-27editedRe-sourced to the FY2026 annual report: portal construction began in February 2026; main construction awaits financing.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-08-26

לאן הלך הכסף

בעקבות מכירות מניות מספר המניות גדל בערך פי 2.5 משנה קודם. ההנהלה גם הוציאה 8.4 מיליון דולר על רכישת FEA Materials, יצרנית סגסוגת סקנדיום-אלומיניום, מה שמעניק לסקנדיום של החברה קונה, ואימצה תוכנית שמקשה על השתלטות עוינת.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 3 טענות

C18עובדהhigh confidence

Shares issued and outstanding went from 58,491,196 at 30 June 2025 to 145,327,493 at 31 March 2026 - 2.48 times as many in nine months - and 145,587,048 were outstanding on 14 May 2026.

sourceNioCorp Form 10-Q, quarter ended 31 March 2026primary

historical · the nine months ended 31 March 2026written 2026-08-26

C41עובדהhigh confidence

NioCorp paid $8.4M in December 2025 for the manufacturing assets and intellectual property of FEA Materials, a maker of scandium-containing aluminium master alloys, recording $2.2M of goodwill and a ten-year intangible.

sourceNioCorp Form 10-Q, quarter ended 31 March 2026primary

historical · the quarter ended 31 December 2025written 2026-08-26

C39עובדהhigh confidence

The board adopted a shareholder rights plan on 21 November 2025 and shareholders approved extending it to the 2027 annual meeting on 6 April 2026.

sourceNioCorp Form 8-K, 6 April 2026 - amended and restated…primary

current state · 2026-04-06written 2026-08-26

05

המחיר, ואיפה אנחנו חלוקים על השוק

בקצרה. הוגן. המחיר הוא הימור קטן על מכרה שטרם נבנה, וההנחה הגדולה ביותר במחקר של החברה עצמה, מחיר סקנדיום גבוה, אולי לא תחזיק. ההנחה במחיר נראית מוצדקת פחות או יותר.

מחיר המניה

$3.60

שער סגירה, 30 בספטמבר

מכפיל ההון העצמי

1.4

המכפיל המקובל בשש השנים האחרונות: 12.6

תזרים מזומנים חופשי כשיעור מהמחיר

-2.6%

הרמה המקובלת בשש השנים האחרונות: ‎-8.1%

הדוח השנתי פורסם ב-25 בספטמבר, ויחד איתו דוח ההנדסה החתום שעומד מאחורי המחקר. הוא תואם את הפרסום של אוגוסט, ומציין את OnG Commodities כמנבא החיצוני שמאחורי מחיר הסקנדיום. המנבא הזה העלה את המחיר שקבע ל-NioCorp מכ-1,967 דולר לקילוגרם ל-3,250 דולר בתוך עשרה חודשים.

ב-13 באוקטובר חתמה Traxys על הסכם מחייב ל-15 שנה על מחצית הפרוניוביום. הבדיקה הבאה היא אם עוד משהו הופך למחייב: קונה סקנדיום, או הלוואה להקמת המכרה.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 4 טענות

C27עובדהhigh confidence

The qualified-person technical report summary for the 2026 study was filed with the SEC on 25 September 2026, as Exhibit 96.1 to the FY2026 annual report, with an effective date of 30 June 2026; the Lockheed memorandum has not been filed.

sourceNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026primary S-K 1300 technical report summary for the 2026 Elk Creek…primary SEC EDGAR full submissions index for CIK 0001512228primary

2026-09-27editedThe technical report summary for the 2026 study was filed on 25 September 2026 as Exhibit 96.1 to the FY2026 annual report, so the claim that none was on file no longer holds.

current state · 2026-09-25written 2026-08-26

C43עובדהhigh confidence

The filed report names OnG Commodities as the independent scandium market consultant. OnG's August 2025 forecast priced NioCorp's scandium at $1,500 to $2,500 a kilogram for 2030 to 2035; its June 2026 revision, driven by fuel-cell demand from AI data centres, raised it to $3,250 through 2036, and the study's first twelve years use that $3,250.

sourceS-K 1300 technical report summary for the 2026 Elk Creek…primary

against this

OnG's own estimate of the 2025 price is about $800 a kilogram outside China, and USGS reports $640 (C06).
OnG writes that there are no bankable scandium offtakes in sight, and that a large downturn in AI capital spending would drastically reduce scandium demand and its price outlook (C45).
The years from thirteen onward are priced at $3,501 a kilogram, beyond the end of OnG's forecast, and the report's price table cites NioCorp alongside OnG as its source.

current state · 2026-09-25written 2026-09-27

C26עובדהhigh confidence

On 13 October 2026 NioCorp signed a binding definitive agreement with Traxys North America: Traxys will buy 50% of planned ferroniobium on a take-or-pay basis over the first 15 years of production, replacing the earlier Traxys ferroniobium and scandium arrangements, and has the exclusive right, but not the obligation, to buy the scandium, titanium and rare earth products and to market them worldwide for 15 years. The other 50% of ferroniobium stays with ThyssenKrupp under a ten-year offtake. Deliveries depend on project financing, construction, commercial production and final ancillary terms; a Traxys equity investment of up to $30M is under discussion and not agreed. Scandium, titanium and rare earths therefore still have no binding buyer. The 8-K adds that either party may terminate the agreement if the Export-Import Bank has not given final approval of senior debt, or financial close has not happened, by 31 December 2027 (six months more if approved but not closed), and Traxys may terminate if commercial production has not begun within 60 months.

sourceNioCorp release, 13 October 2026 - definitive Traxys agreementprimary S-K 1300 technical report summary for the 2026 Elk Creek…primary NioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026primary NioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2025primary

2026-09-27editedThe filed technical report gives the two ferroniobium offtakes' volumes and terms, and describes a draft definitive agreement with Traxys, dated 13 April 2026 and unsigned, covering every other product.
2026-10-13editedThe Traxys definitive agreement was signed on 13 October: binding take-or-pay for 50% of ferroniobium over 15 years, with exclusive but non-obligatory rights over every other product. It replaces the earlier arrangement, which the filed report called an unsigned draft.
2026-10-16editedThe 8-K filed for the agreement states a termination right: either party may walk away if EXIM has not given final approval of senior debt by 31 December 2027, and Traxys if commercial production is not reached within 60 months.

current state · 2026-10-13written 2026-08-26

C21עובדהhigh confidence

NioCorp applied to the Export-Import Bank on 6 June 2023 for up to $800M of debt, passed the first of three transaction review committee reviews in October 2023, received a preliminary project letter in April 2024 and was advanced to the next stage in February 2025, where its application remained at 30 June 2026. Its annual report says it cannot estimate the amount or how long the process may take, and that there is no assurance of a final commitment.

sourceNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026primary NioCorp Form 10-Q, quarter ended 31 March 2026primary NioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2025primary

2026-09-27editedThe FY2026 annual report says the application remains at the next stage of the Transaction Review Committee's review, with SLR Consulting engaged for the independent technical and environmental reviews, and still no commitment.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-08-26

ההימורהמחיר כבר מגלם הצלחה

אם ההימור מצליח

אין פוטנציאל

אין כזה שהראיות מצדיקות בתוך שנתיים עד שלוש

אם ההימור נכשל

נשארים 48%

מהשווי בשוק היום: מה שהמקרה הגרוע ביותר משאיר לבעלי המניות

איך לקרוא את המכפיל

אחרי ניכוי המזומנים, השוק מעריך את חלקה של NioCorp במכרה מתוכנן, שהמחקר שלה עצמה מעריך ב-2.80 מיליארד דולר אחרי מס, בכ-101.3 מיליון דולר: כ-3.6 סנט על כל דולר.

זה זול רק אם מחיר הסקנדיום במחקר אמיתי:

המחקר מניח כ-3,444 דולר לקילוגרם לאורך חיי המכרה.
ב-2025 עמד המחיר העולמי הממוצע על 640 דולר לקילוגרם.
המכרה יפיק כ-100 טון בשנה; העולם כולו השתמש ב-60.
הדוח המוגש עצמו מעריך את רזרבות המכרה ב-1,966 דולר לקילוגרם בלבד.

מול ההיסטוריה שלה. זולה בהרבה ביחס למה שיש לה מאשר בעבר, אבל מה שיש לה הוא כעת בעיקר מזומנים ממניות חדשות, ולכן הפער מתאר את המזומנים ולא את המכרה.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 6 טענות

C23אומדןmedium confidence

At $3.54 the whole company is worth about $516.3M; less $415.0M of cash that leaves about $101.3M of enterprise value against $2.80B of the study's after-tax value attributable to NioCorp's 81.33% of Elk Creek Resources - about 3.6 cents on the dollar, down from 8.4 cents at the $4.47 the thesis was struck against.

derivedStruck on the 2026-09-25 close of $3.54 (the 2026-09-24 close was the same). 145,849,630 shares on the 25 September 2026 cover of the FY2026 annual report times $3.54 is $516.3M. Cash and cash equivalents of $415.0M at 30 June 2026 with no borrowings (C17), so enterprise value is $101.3M. The filed study's after-tax value of $3,441M (C03) times the 81.33% of Elk Creek Resources the annual report's subsidiary table gives (C24) is $2,798.6M; $101.3M divided by $2,798.6M is 3.6%. At the thesis the same arithmetic gave $231.6M against $2,767M, 8.4%. The Class B shares exchangeable into NioCorp stock are excluded from both sides.

against this

The denominator is a pre-feasibility study, and 38% of the revenue behind it is scandium priced 5.4 times the observed 2025 market on one consultant's revised forecast (C04, C05, C06, C43).
The numerator ignores the equity still to be raised: funding the intended equity third of the capital cost at today's price would roughly double the share count (C25).
The study's value is struck at an 8% discount rate on a single unbuilt underground mine with an unproven rare-earth circuit - a rate that assumes construction and commissioning risk away (C36).

2026-09-25editedre-struck on the 2026-09-24 close after an 18.2% price decline since the thesis; cash and the study's value are unchanged
2026-09-26editedThe basis still showed the arithmetic at $4.47 after the claim was re-struck at $3.54 on 2026-09-25; it now shows the $3.54 arithmetic and names both bases for the fall: 20.8% from the $4.47 pack close of 2026-08-25 the figures were struck at, 18.2% from the $4.33 close of 2026-08-26, the thesis date.
2026-09-27editedRe-struck on the 30 June 2026 balance sheet, the 25 September 2026 cover share count and the 81.33% stake the FY2026 annual report gives, at the unchanged $3.54 close of 2026-09-25.

current state · 2026-09-25written 2026-08-26

C05טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence

The filed study prices scandium trioxide at $1,474 a pound ($3,250 a kilogram) for years one to twelve, with $1,315 in year seven, and $1,588 a pound ($3,501 a kilogram) from year thirteen to the end - an average of $1,562.90 a pound, or $3,443.61 a kilogram, over the mine's life.

sourceS-K 1300 technical report summary for the 2026 Elk Creek…primary NioCorp 2026 Elk Creek Feasibility Study results releaseprimary

against this

USGS reports a global average of $640 a kilogram for 99.99% scandium oxide powder in 2025 - the study assumes 5.4 times it (C06).
On the older USGS series the same agency published for 2024, $1,200 a kilogram, the study still assumes 2.9 times the observed price (C07).
Both USGS series fall every year from 2020 to 2025, while the study's assumption is barely below the $3,674 a kilogram the 2022 study used.
The same filed report prices the reserve itself at $1,966 a kilogram, 43% below the economic model's average (C44).

2026-09-27editedThe filed report gives the price path behind the release's single figure: $1,474 a pound for years one to twelve (with $1,315 in year seven) and $1,588 from year thirteen, averaging $1,562.90 a pound or $3,443.61 a kilogram.

forwardwritten 2026-08-26

C06עובדהhigh confidence

USGS reports a global average price for 99.99% scandium oxide powder in 5- to 100-kilogram lots of $640 a kilogram in 2025, down from a range of $890 to $1,000 in 2021.

sourceUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries, February 2026 - Scandium,…primary USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries, February 2026 - Scandiumprimary

historical · 2025written 2026-08-26

C08טענת ההנהלהhigh confidence

NioCorp's own release says it plans to produce approximately 100 tonnes a year of scandium oxide at Elk Creek once financing and construction are complete.

sourceNioCorp release: Lockheed Martin and NioCorp Sign MOUprimary

against this

World consumption of scandium oxide was 60 tonnes in 2025 and world production about 80 tonnes, so one mine would have to be larger than the market it sells into (C09).
The only named buyer has signed a non-binding memorandum for up to 15 tonnes a year (C11).

forwardwritten 2026-08-26

C09עובדהhigh confidence

USGS estimated global consumption of scandium oxide at 60 tonnes in 2025, global production at about 80 tonnes and global capacity at over 90 tonnes a year, all produced as a byproduct of nickel and titanium process streams, tailings and residues.

sourceUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries, February 2026 - Scandiumprimary

historical · 2025written 2026-08-26

C44עובדהhigh confidence

The same filed report prices the reserve at $1,966 a kilogram of scandium oxide - the average of OnG's August 2025 forecast - and uses $3,443.61 a kilogram only in the economic model, 75% higher, calling the lower figure its conservative long-term basis and the higher one an allowance for the current high price outside China.

sourceS-K 1300 technical report summary for the 2026 Elk Creek…primary

against this

The report treats dysprosium and terbium the same way, both priced in the model at three to four times their reserve prices on the same argument, so scandium is not singled out.
A resource or reserve priced below the model is ordinary practice, and the qualified persons state that non-China prices currently run three to four times China's.

current state · 2026-09-25written 2026-09-27

המכפיל מול המתחרים

אף אחת מהמתחרות שלעיל אינה מוכרת את אותו מוצר לאותם לקוחות כחלק משמעותי מפעילותה. השוואת מחירים דורשת לפחות שתיים, ולכן המחיר נבחן מול ההיסטוריה של החברה עצמה.

ההימור: מה הוא מניב אם יצליח

זה לא הימור שיכול להניב בתוך שנתיים עד שלוש. אי אפשר לבנות את המכרה לפני שהחוב מגויס, והבנייה לוקחת כשלוש שנים אחר כך, ולכן לא יגיעו מכירות בתוך החלון שאנחנו בוחנים.

אם ההימור נכשל, בעלי המניות נשארים עם חברה עם הרבה מזומנים וללא חוב, אבל המזומנים מצטמצמים משנה לשנה, ובניית המכרה תדרוש הרבה מניות חדשות.

השלבים שעליה לעבור

הושלם החלה בניית פתח המכרה (Portal)
הושלם נחתם הסכם הרכישה הסופי עם Traxys
בתהליך החלטת הדירקטוריון של EXIM על הלוואה של 800 מיליון דולר עד יוני 2027
טרם התחיל התחייבות מחייבת לחוב לבנייה עד דצמבר 2028
טרם התחיל קונים של סקנדיום חותמים על כמויות במחיר קרוב למחיר במחקר עד דצמבר 2028
טרם התחיל החלק ההוני של הבנייה ממומן עד דצמבר 2028

הפירוט שמאחורי הדירוג

Rating

No real upside

the big win's payoff against the 2× and 5× lines

הראיות (באנגלית) · 4 טענות

C37עובדהhigh confidence

The 2022 feasibility study assumed a four-year pre-production period and commercial production in 2025. At 30 June 2026 only the portal was being built - $5.6M spent of a $44.6M budget - and the 35-month construction clock in the 2026 study starts only once financing lets the company authorise the full build.

sourceNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026primary S-K 1300 technical report summary for the 2026 Elk Creek…primary NioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2025primary

2026-09-27editedRe-sourced to the FY2026 annual report: portal construction began in February 2026; main construction awaits financing.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-08-26

C22טענת ההנהלהhigh confidence

Management expects to fund the $1.85B of upfront capital with about 65% debt and 35% equity, and says it has not obtained a commitment for any portion of the debt. It also has to fund costs outside that estimate: financing fees, interest during construction, start-up working capital, reclamation assurance, overhead until production and any overrun beyond the contingency.

sourceNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026primary NioCorp Form 10-Q, quarter ended 31 March 2026primary

against this

The debt in question is the EXIM loan, applied for in June 2023 and still uncommitted three years later (C21).
The same filing says future equity financings will likely be completed at a discount to the market price and will likely be dilutive, and that there is significant uncertainty that any additional financing could be secured.
Every dollar raised so far has been equity, not debt (C19).

2026-09-27editedThe FY2026 annual report states the mix as about 65% debt and 35% equity, not two-thirds, says no commitment exists for any part of the debt, and lists costs outside the $1.85B that must also be funded.

forwardwritten 2026-08-26

C17עובדהhigh confidence

Cash and cash equivalents were $415.0M at 30 June 2026 with working capital of $402.3M, against total liabilities of $37.1M - $25.2M of it warrant and earnout liabilities carried at fair value - and no borrowings. The company plans to spend $65M to $75M over the next twelve months.

sourceNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026primary

2026-09-27editedRe-sourced to the audited 30 June 2026 balance sheet in the FY2026 annual report.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-08-26

C25אומדןmedium confidence

If 65% of the $1.85B came from debt, the remaining $647M of equity is $232M more than the cash on hand, and funding that whole equity share at $3.54 would issue about 183M shares - more than doubling the count - before the costs the company says sit outside the estimate.

derived$1,849M of upfront capital (C03) times 35% is $647.2M. Cash of $415.0M at 30 June 2026 (C17). $647.2M divided by the $3.54 close of 2026-09-25 is 182.8M shares against 145.8M outstanding on 25 September 2026. The arithmetic assumes no discount to the market price, which the company's own filing says is unlikely, no cost overrun, and ignores the financing fees, construction interest and start-up working capital the annual report says must also be funded (C22).

against this

The cash on hand covers about 64% of the intended equity share, so the incremental raise could be as little as $232M if the debt arrives in full and on time.
A larger debt share, a strategic investor or a government equity stake of the kind other critical-minerals companies have taken would change the arithmetic entirely.

2026-09-25editedre-struck on the 2026-09-24 close after an 18.2% price decline since the thesis
2026-09-26editedThe basis still divided by $4.47 after the claim was re-struck at $3.54 on 2026-09-25; it now shows the 174.0M-share arithmetic the claim states.
2026-09-27editedRe-struck on the 65% debt and 35% equity mix the FY2026 annual report states and the 30 June 2026 cash.

forwardwritten 2026-08-26

איפה אנחנו חלוקים על השוק

השוק חושב

הימור על אדמות נדירות שנהנה מבקרות הייצוא של סין, עם כסף ממשלתי מאחוריו.

אנחנו חושבים

ההנחה במחיר מוצדקת, אבל התווית שגויה. סקנדיום הוא 38.3% מהמחקר, והשוק העולמי של סקנדיום כולו מסתכם בכ-38 מיליון דולר.

המניה נעה בצמוד למניות האדמות הנדירות, ושני האנליסטים שמכסים אותה ממליצים לקנות. אבל מחיר הסקנדיום שנושא את המחקר מגיע מעדכון של מנבא אחד השנה, והגיאולוגים של הממשלה מודדים את שוק הסקנדיום ב-640 דולר לקילוגרם.

נטעה אם קונה סקנדיום יחתום על כמות מוצהרת במחיר קרוב למחיר במחקר, או אם השימוש העולמי יגדל הרבה מעבר ל-60 טון.

מה אומרים האנליסטים

הראיות (באנגלית) · 6 טענות

C29עובדהhigh confidence

Over the last 252 sessions the shares moved with MP Materials and USA Rare Earth at a correlation of 0.78, and at 0.85 over the last 63.

sourceNB research pack, frozen at content/NB/research-pack.jsonprimary

current state · 2026-08-26written 2026-08-26

C38עובדהlow confidence

Two analysts cover the shares and both rate them a buy; the single published estimate series is internally incoherent, putting the year to June 2030 well below the year to June 2029.

sourceNB research pack, frozen at content/NB/research-pack.jsonprimary

current state · 2026-08-26written 2026-08-26

C04טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence

Over the 40-year life the study puts revenue at $37.44B: scandium $14.33B or 38.3%, niobium $9.78B or 26.1%, the five rare-earth products together $9.38B or 25.1%, and titanium $3.95B or 10.5%.

sourceS-K 1300 technical report summary for the 2026 Elk Creek…primary NioCorp 2026 Elk Creek Feasibility Study results releaseprimary

against this

The split appears only in the August release. No filing carries it, so it cannot be checked against a document signed by a qualified person (C27).
The revenue weighting is a function of the assumed prices, and the scandium price is the one furthest from anything observed (C05, C06).

2026-09-27editedReconciled to the filed technical report summary: $37,435M of revenue with scandium $14,331M, niobium $9,781M, rare earths $9,378M and titanium $3,946M.

forwardwritten 2026-08-26

C43עובדהhigh confidence

The filed report names OnG Commodities as the independent scandium market consultant. OnG's August 2025 forecast priced NioCorp's scandium at $1,500 to $2,500 a kilogram for 2030 to 2035; its June 2026 revision, driven by fuel-cell demand from AI data centres, raised it to $3,250 through 2036, and the study's first twelve years use that $3,250.

sourceS-K 1300 technical report summary for the 2026 Elk Creek…primary

against this

OnG's own estimate of the 2025 price is about $800 a kilogram outside China, and USGS reports $640 (C06).
OnG writes that there are no bankable scandium offtakes in sight, and that a large downturn in AI capital spending would drastically reduce scandium demand and its price outlook (C45).
The years from thirteen onward are priced at $3,501 a kilogram, beyond the end of OnG's forecast, and the report's price table cites NioCorp alongside OnG as its source.

current state · 2026-09-25written 2026-09-27

C42אומדןmedium confidence

The entire world scandium oxide market was worth roughly $38M in 2025 - 60 tonnes of consumption at $640 a kilogram - while the study's scandium line alone averages $358M a year.

derived60 tonnes (C09) is 60,000 kilograms; at the $640 a kilogram USGS reports for 2025 (C06, the price series quoted at S13) that is $38.4M. The study's scandium revenue of $14,331M (C04) over 40 years averages $358M a year. The two figures are on different bases - one is today's market at today's price, the other a forty-year average at an assumed price - and the point of putting them side by side is the size of the gap the study needs the market to close, not that one is a forecast of the other.

against this

USGS revised the market up sharply in one year - consumption from 30 to 40 tonnes to 60, production from 40 to 80 - so the base is moving fast (C34).
A new low-cost supplier can create its own market: scandium is expensive partly because it is scarce, and aluminium-scandium alloy uses that are uneconomic at $3,446 a kilogram may not be at a fraction of it. That is the company's own case, and it is the reverse of the arithmetic above.
The value comparison uses the oxide price; the company intends to sell master alloy as well, which carries a different price (C41).

current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-08-26

C09עובדהhigh confidence

USGS estimated global consumption of scandium oxide at 60 tonnes in 2025, global production at about 80 tonnes and global capacity at over 90 tonnes a year, all produced as a byproduct of nickel and titanium process streams, tailings and residues.

sourceUSGS Mineral Commodity Summaries, February 2026 - Scandiumprimary

historical · 2025written 2026-08-26

06

מה יכול להשתבש, ואיך נדע

הסיכונים

הביקוש לסקנדיום אולי לא יגיע. הקו הגדול ביותר במחקר דורש כ-9.4 פעמים את השוק כולו היום, והחברה מונה את עמידות הביקוש המונע ב-AI בין הסיכונים שלה.
תהליך אדמות נדירות שלא הוכח. אדמות נדירות הן רבע מההכנסות במחקר ונספרות כעת כרזרבות, אבל הפקה מסחרית לא הוכחה.
עוד מניות בדרך. מימון 35% מהעלות של 1.85 מיליארד דולר במניות במחיר של היום יוביל להנפקה של כ-183 מיליון מניות, יותר מהכפלת המספר הקיים.
עדיין אין הלוואה. ב-2023 היא ביקשה עד 800 מיליון דולר מהבנק Export-Import Bank, ואין לה התחייבות לאף חלק מהחוב.
עלות שממשיכה לעלות. העלות הראשונית עלתה ב-62% בין המחקר של 2022 למחקר של 2026.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 7 טענות

C42אומדןmedium confidence

The entire world scandium oxide market was worth roughly $38M in 2025 - 60 tonnes of consumption at $640 a kilogram - while the study's scandium line alone averages $358M a year.

derived60 tonnes (C09) is 60,000 kilograms; at the $640 a kilogram USGS reports for 2025 (C06, the price series quoted at S13) that is $38.4M. The study's scandium revenue of $14,331M (C04) over 40 years averages $358M a year. The two figures are on different bases - one is today's market at today's price, the other a forty-year average at an assumed price - and the point of putting them side by side is the size of the gap the study needs the market to close, not that one is a forecast of the other.

against this

USGS revised the market up sharply in one year - consumption from 30 to 40 tonnes to 60, production from 40 to 80 - so the base is moving fast (C34).
A new low-cost supplier can create its own market: scandium is expensive partly because it is scarce, and aluminium-scandium alloy uses that are uneconomic at $3,446 a kilogram may not be at a fraction of it. That is the company's own case, and it is the reverse of the arithmetic above.
The value comparison uses the oxide price; the company intends to sell master alloy as well, which carries a different price (C41).

current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-08-26

C32עובדהhigh confidence

The company's own release ties scandium demand to solid oxide fuel cells deployed for artificial-intelligence data centres, and lists among its risks that the anticipated demand drivers for scandium relating to artificial intelligence are not sustainable.

sourceNioCorp 2026 Elk Creek Feasibility Study results releaseprimary NioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026primary S-K 1300 technical report summary for the 2026 Elk Creek…primary

2026-09-27editedThe FY2026 annual report lists 'a reduction of demand for scandium from a downturn in capital spending for AI' among its own risks, and the filed market study says a large downturn would drastically reduce its price outlook.

current state · 2026-09-25written 2026-08-26

C36עובדהmedium confidence

The filed study rests on a reserve of 45.93 million tons at 30 June 2026 - 7.57 million proven and 38.36 million probable - grading 0.759% niobium pentoxide, 69.3 parts per million scandium, 2.68% titanium dioxide and 0.34% rare-earth oxides. The rare earths are now inside the reserve; recovering them has been tested at bench and pilot scale, not in a commercial plant.

sourceS-K 1300 technical report summary for the 2026 Elk Creek…primary NioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026primary

2026-09-27editedThe filed reserve is dated 30 June 2026, not 2 April, and now carries rare earths at 0.34%, correcting this claim's statement that no rare-earth reserve could be declared; commercial-scale rare-earth recovery is still unproven.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-08-26

C04טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence

Over the 40-year life the study puts revenue at $37.44B: scandium $14.33B or 38.3%, niobium $9.78B or 26.1%, the five rare-earth products together $9.38B or 25.1%, and titanium $3.95B or 10.5%.

sourceS-K 1300 technical report summary for the 2026 Elk Creek…primary NioCorp 2026 Elk Creek Feasibility Study results releaseprimary

against this

The split appears only in the August release. No filing carries it, so it cannot be checked against a document signed by a qualified person (C27).
The revenue weighting is a function of the assumed prices, and the scandium price is the one furthest from anything observed (C05, C06).

2026-09-27editedReconciled to the filed technical report summary: $37,435M of revenue with scandium $14,331M, niobium $9,781M, rare earths $9,378M and titanium $3,946M.

forwardwritten 2026-08-26

C25אומדןmedium confidence

If 65% of the $1.85B came from debt, the remaining $647M of equity is $232M more than the cash on hand, and funding that whole equity share at $3.54 would issue about 183M shares - more than doubling the count - before the costs the company says sit outside the estimate.

derived$1,849M of upfront capital (C03) times 35% is $647.2M. Cash of $415.0M at 30 June 2026 (C17). $647.2M divided by the $3.54 close of 2026-09-25 is 182.8M shares against 145.8M outstanding on 25 September 2026. The arithmetic assumes no discount to the market price, which the company's own filing says is unlikely, no cost overrun, and ignores the financing fees, construction interest and start-up working capital the annual report says must also be funded (C22).

against this

The cash on hand covers about 64% of the intended equity share, so the incremental raise could be as little as $232M if the debt arrives in full and on time.
A larger debt share, a strategic investor or a government equity stake of the kind other critical-minerals companies have taken would change the arithmetic entirely.

2026-09-25editedre-struck on the 2026-09-24 close after an 18.2% price decline since the thesis
2026-09-26editedThe basis still divided by $4.47 after the claim was re-struck at $3.54 on 2026-09-25; it now shows the 174.0M-share arithmetic the claim states.
2026-09-27editedRe-struck on the 65% debt and 35% equity mix the FY2026 annual report states and the 30 June 2026 cash.

forwardwritten 2026-08-26

C21עובדהhigh confidence

NioCorp applied to the Export-Import Bank on 6 June 2023 for up to $800M of debt, passed the first of three transaction review committee reviews in October 2023, received a preliminary project letter in April 2024 and was advanced to the next stage in February 2025, where its application remained at 30 June 2026. Its annual report says it cannot estimate the amount or how long the process may take, and that there is no assurance of a final commitment.

sourceNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026primary NioCorp Form 10-Q, quarter ended 31 March 2026primary NioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2025primary

2026-09-27editedThe FY2026 annual report says the application remains at the next stage of the Transaction Review Committee's review, with SLR Consulting engaged for the independent technical and environmental reviews, and still no commitment.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-08-26

C28אומדןmedium confidence

The upfront capital estimate rose from $1,141.0M in the technical report summary filed with the FY2025 annual report to $1,849M in the 2026 study - 62% more - while the mine life went from 38 years to 40.

sourceS-K 1300 technical report summary for the 2026 Elk Creek…primary NioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2025primary

against this

The 2026 study adds five rare-earth products and a rare-earth circuit the 2022 study never costed, so part of the increase buys capacity rather than measuring inflation.
Four years of United States construction cost inflation would have raised a like-for-like estimate anyway; the 62% is not all schedule slippage.
The 2026 figure comes from a release rather than a filed technical report summary, so the two numbers may not yet be on identical bases (C27).

2026-09-27editedThe $1,849M is now in the filed technical report summary.

historical · 2022 study against 2026 studywritten 2026-08-26

שאלות פתוחות

האם תחזית הסקנדיום תתממש. היא נשענת על תאי דלק למרכזי נתונים של AI, והמנבא אומר שהאטה שם תקצץ אותה בחדות.
איפה עלויות המכרה ביחס ליצרנית הברזילאית, שלא מפרסמת שום נתון להשוואה.
האם מזכר ההבנות של Lockheed Martin, או כל קונה סקנדיום אחר, יהפוך לחוזה מחייב, כשכל מה שיש ל-Traxys הוא זכות לקנות.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 5 טענות

C43עובדהhigh confidence

The filed report names OnG Commodities as the independent scandium market consultant. OnG's August 2025 forecast priced NioCorp's scandium at $1,500 to $2,500 a kilogram for 2030 to 2035; its June 2026 revision, driven by fuel-cell demand from AI data centres, raised it to $3,250 through 2036, and the study's first twelve years use that $3,250.

sourceS-K 1300 technical report summary for the 2026 Elk Creek…primary

against this

OnG's own estimate of the 2025 price is about $800 a kilogram outside China, and USGS reports $640 (C06).
OnG writes that there are no bankable scandium offtakes in sight, and that a large downturn in AI capital spending would drastically reduce scandium demand and its price outlook (C45).
The years from thirteen onward are priced at $3,501 a kilogram, beyond the end of OnG's forecast, and the report's price table cites NioCorp alongside OnG as its source.

current state · 2026-09-25written 2026-09-27

C45טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence

OnG's supply and demand table in the filed report puts world scandium oxide demand at 37 tonnes in 2025, rising to 228 tonnes in 2030 and 711 in 2035, and counts about 100 tonnes a year from NioCorp from 2030. OnG also writes that there are no bankable offtakes in sight and that a large downturn in AI capital spending would drastically reduce demand.

sourceS-K 1300 technical report summary for the 2026 Elk Creek…primary

against this

USGS measured 2025 consumption at 60 tonnes and production at about 80, with capacity over 90 (C09), so OnG starts from a different base than the government's geologists.
The forecast needs world demand to grow about nineteen-fold in ten years, and OnG's own table shows the market in surplus from 2030 to 2033 as NioCorp and others start up.

forwardwritten 2026-09-27

C16עובדהhigh confidence

The company's own annual report states that Companhia Brasileira de Metalurgia e Mineracao supplies approximately 85% of the world's niobium, and warns that any attempt by that supplier to suppress the price would hurt NioCorp's value.

sourceNioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026primary NioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2025primary

2026-09-27editedThe FY2026 annual report repeats the statement unchanged.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-08-26

C11עובדהhigh confidence

The memorandum signed with Lockheed Martin on 4 August 2026 contemplates buying up to 15 tonnes a year of scandium oxide or aluminium-scandium alloy over ten years, and the company states it is non-binding with no assurance a definitive agreement will be reached. The FY2026 annual report does not name Lockheed; it refers only to non-binding memoranda covering portions of scandium production.

sourceNioCorp release, 4 August 2026 - the memorandum's…primary NioCorp release: Lockheed Martin and NioCorp Sign MOUprimary NioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026primary

2026-09-27editedThe FY2026 annual report does not name Lockheed Martin; it describes non-binding memoranda covering portions of scandium production, and the technical report lists scandium offtake as subject to a memorandum with Traxys.

current state · 2026-09-25written 2026-08-26

C26עובדהhigh confidence

On 13 October 2026 NioCorp signed a binding definitive agreement with Traxys North America: Traxys will buy 50% of planned ferroniobium on a take-or-pay basis over the first 15 years of production, replacing the earlier Traxys ferroniobium and scandium arrangements, and has the exclusive right, but not the obligation, to buy the scandium, titanium and rare earth products and to market them worldwide for 15 years. The other 50% of ferroniobium stays with ThyssenKrupp under a ten-year offtake. Deliveries depend on project financing, construction, commercial production and final ancillary terms; a Traxys equity investment of up to $30M is under discussion and not agreed. Scandium, titanium and rare earths therefore still have no binding buyer. The 8-K adds that either party may terminate the agreement if the Export-Import Bank has not given final approval of senior debt, or financial close has not happened, by 31 December 2027 (six months more if approved but not closed), and Traxys may terminate if commercial production has not begun within 60 months.

sourceNioCorp release, 13 October 2026 - definitive Traxys agreementprimary S-K 1300 technical report summary for the 2026 Elk Creek…primary NioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026primary NioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2025primary

2026-09-27editedThe filed technical report gives the two ferroniobium offtakes' volumes and terms, and describes a draft definitive agreement with Traxys, dated 13 April 2026 and unsigned, covering every other product.
2026-10-13editedThe Traxys definitive agreement was signed on 13 October: binding take-or-pay for 50% of ferroniobium over 15 years, with exclusive but non-obligatory rights over every other product. It replaces the earlier arrangement, which the filed report called an unsigned draft.
2026-10-16editedThe 8-K filed for the agreement states a termination right: either party may walk away if EXIM has not given final approval of senior debt by 31 December 2027, and Traxys if commercial production is not reached within 60 months.

current state · 2026-10-13written 2026-08-26

מה ישנה את ההערכה שלנו

ניטרלית→אטרקטיביתגם מימון וגם שוק סקנדיום אמיתי מתגבשים
נדרשים כל אלה:
- ○הלוואה מחייבת לבניית Elk Creek נחתמת עד סוף 2028.ייבדק בזמן אמת
- ○קונים של סקנדיום חותמים על כמויות במחיר קרוב למחיר במחקר, והשימוש העולמי גדל הרבה מעבר ל-60 הטון של 2025.ייבדק בדוח הבא, עד 12 בנובמבר
ניטרלית→לא אטרקטיביתהמחקר או המטלורגיה לא עומדים במבחן
מספיק אחד מאלה:
- ○מחקר מלא יותר, או העדכון הבא של המנבא, מתמחרים את הסקנדיום הרבה מתחת ל-3,250 דולר לקילוגרם.ייבדק בזמן אמת
- ○העיבוד בקנה מידה מלא לא משיג את שיעורי ההפקה של האדמות הנדירות במפעל הניסוי.ייבדק בזמן אמת

נטעה גם אם

עד סוף 2028 לא נחתמת הלוואה מחייבת לבנייה.
קונים של סקנדיום חותמים רק במחירים נמוכים בהרבה ממחיר המחקר.
השימוש העולמי בסקנדיום נשאר קרוב ל-60 טון עד 2028.

מה בהמשך

12 בנובמבר 2026 דוח 10-Q לרבעון שהסתיים ב-30 בספטמבר 2026: האם קונה סקנדיום מתחייב, האם ההשקעה של Traxys בהון או חוב להקמה הופכים למחייבים, או שמא נמכרו קודם מניות נוספות.

כל האירועים הצפויים

12 בנובמבר 2026 דוח 10-Q לרבעון שהסתיים ב-30 בספטמבר 2026: האם קונה סקנדיום מתחייב, האם ההשקעה של Traxys בהון או חוב להקמה הופכים למחייבים, או שמא נמכרו קודם מניות נוספות.
13 בנובמבר 2026 פקיעת כתבי אופציה (warrants) בשער מימוש של 1.75 דולר: כ-1.8 מיליון כתבי אופציה עמוק בכסף; המימוש יוסיף כמה מיליוני דולרים ומניות, צעד קטן בדילול שכבר נכלל בציון.
פברואר 2027 דוח 10-Q לרבעון שהסתיים ב-31 בדצמבר 2026: ההוצאה על פתח המכרה מול התקציב, קצב שריפת המזומנים מול התוכנית של 65 עד 75 מיליון דולר, וכל החלטה של דירקטוריון EXIM.
אפריל 2027 האסיפה השנתית של 2027; תוכנית זכויות בעלי המניות (shareholder rights plan) פגה אלא אם תחודש: האם הדירקטוריון מבקש לחדש את ההגנה מפני השתלטות, וההצבעה הראשונה על השכר אחרי שתוכנית הבונוס החדשה שילמה 169.5%.

מה קרה מאז

נכתבה

26 באוגוסט

המחיר בעת כתיבת התזה

$4.47

25 באוגוסט

שער סגירה אחרון

$3.60

שער סגירה, 30 בספטמבר · ‎-19.5% מאז

16 באוקטוברחדשותמזומנים של 405.1 מיליון דולר ברבעון ספטמבר; עסקת Traxys תפוג אם EXIM לא יאשר עד 2027המזומנים וההוצאות בדוח המקדים תאמו את התוכנית. מהדוח של Traxys עולה שכל צד יכול לבטל את העסקה אם EXIM לא יאשר את ההלוואה עד סוף 2027. ההערכה לא השתנתה.
13 באוקטוברחדשותTraxys חתמה על הסכם מחייב לפרוניוביום; הסקנדיום עדיין לא נמכרנחתם הסכם take-or-pay ל-15 שנה על מחצית סגסוגת הניוביום, וכך כולה כבר מכוסה בחוזים. שום דבר לא מחייב קונה סקנדיום או את ההלוואה למכרה, ולכן ההערכה לא השתנתה.
5 באוקטוברבדיקת התזהההימור מציין עכשיו על מה הוא נשעןהבעלים ביקש שכל הימור יציין את המגמה המקרו-כלכלית שעומדת מאחוריו, אחרי שבהימור על BWXT חסר הטיעון של מנכ״ל החברה בעד אנרגיה גרעינית על פני גז.
4 באוקטוברבדיקת התזהרשימת הבדיקות של הבעלים: מקורות ההכנסה, עלות הצמיחה, ההנהלה, אירועים צפוייםרשימת הבדיקות של הבעלים הראתה שהשיטה שותקת בשאלות מי מנהל את החברה, כמה עולה הצמיחה, מאיפה מגיע הכסף ואילו אירועים צפויים בתאריכים ידועים. בסבב הזה מילאנו את ארבעת הנושאים מתוך חלק III של הדוח השנתי ומדוח הזימון לאסיפה (proxy).
27 בספטמברדוחותהמחקר הוגש: הוא תואם, אבל מחיר הסקנדיום הועלה ב-65%. ההערכה לא השתנתההדוח השנתי הגיש את דוח ההנדסה שהתזה חיכתה לו. המספרים בו תואמים את הפרסום של אוגוסט, אבל מחיר הסקנדיום מגיע מעדכון של מנבא אחד השנה, ושום דבר בסקנדיום לא נחתם.
26 בספטמברבדיקת התזההמחיר נוסח מחדש כ-3.5 סנט על כל דולר משווי המחקר; ההערכה לא השתנתההסיכום עדיין אמר שהשוק מעריך את המכרה בכ-8 סנט על כל דולר משווי המחקר. אחרי ירידה של 20.8% מ-4.47 דולר, המחיר שבו השתמשה התזה, השוק מעריך אותו בכ-3.5 סנט.
25 בספטמברתנועת מחירהמניה ירדה ב-18.2% ללא חדשות. ההערכה לא השתנתהרק המחיר זז, מה שהופך את ההימור על המכרה לזול יותר אך לא מחזק את הטיעון. שום דבר במחקר, בשוק הסקנדיום או במימון לא השתנה.
26 באוגוסטהתזה נכתבהניטרלית, ביטחון בינוניפילוח ההכנסות במחקר של אוגוסט, מול מדידת הממשלה של שוק הסקנדיום, הפך סיפור של אדמות נדירות לסיפור של סקנדיום.

נבדקה גם שלוש פעמים, ללא ממצא חדש שמצריך פעולה.

מקורות 20

Where this came from

Sources - 20

Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.

S01primarycompany filing2025-09-11
NioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2025
Item 1 business and the competition section, the corporate structure and the 80.42% holding in Elk Creek Resources, headcount, the two filed ferroniobium offtake exhibits, the 2022 feasibility study's physical and cost tables, the five-year commodity price table, the metallurgy and rare-earth-recovery risk factors, and the statement that one Brazilian producer supplies about 85% of the world's niobium
backsC02C16C21C24C26C28C35C37
S02primarycompany filing2026-05-14
NioCorp Form 10-Q, quarter ended 31 March 2026
cash, working capital and the whole balance sheet, share counts at both ends of the nine months, the five equity offerings and their prices, the $435.3M of financing inflows, construction in progress, the FEA Materials purchase, the EXIM application history and the two-thirds-debt funding intention, and the $1,141.0M upfront capital figure from the technical report summary filed with the FY2025 annual report
backsC01C18C19C21C22C41
S03primarycompany release2026-08-10
NioCorp 2026 Elk Creek Feasibility Study results release
the whole 2026 study: pre-tax and after-tax value at an 8% discount, the internal rates of return, $1,849M of upfront capital over 35 months, the 40-year life, life-of-mine revenue of $37,435M split across eight products, the per-product price and volume assumptions, the 45.9 million tons of reserves and their grades, and the company's own statement that scandium demand rests on fuel cells for artificial-intelligence data centres
scandium is used in solid oxide fuel cells, which are increasingly being deployed to provide reliable, on-site power for energy-intensive artificial intelligence data centers
backsC03C04C05C32
S04primarycompany release2026-08-04
NioCorp release: Lockheed Martin and NioCorp Sign MOU
the memorandum's contemplated volume of up to 15 tonnes a year over ten years, its non-binding status, the Department of War Title III award behind the collaboration, and the company's own statement that it plans approximately 100 tonnes a year of scandium oxide
The MOU is non-binding, and both companies have agreed to negotiate in good faith a definitive agreement as rapidly as possible. There is no assurance that a definitive agreement will be reached, or as to its eventual terms.
backsC08C11
S05primarygovernment data2026-02-01
USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries, February 2026 - Scandium United States Geological Survey
world scandium consumption, production and capacity for 2025, the global price series for 99.99% scandium oxide powder, China's April 2025 export controls, the Sorel-Tracy expansion and the Defense Logistics Agency stockpile procurement, the Nyngan mining licence, the $10M and $29.9M Department of War awards, and the named substitute materials
The U.S. Geological Survey estimated that global consumption of scandium oxide in 2025 was 60 tons, and that the primary global uses were aerospace alloys, other alloys, and solid oxide fuel cells.
backsC06C07C09C10C31C33C34C35C40
S06primarygovernment data2026-02-01
USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries, February 2026 - Niobium (Columbium) United States Geological Survey
world niobium mine production and the Brazilian share, United States apparent consumption and zero domestic mine production, United States reserves of 210,000 tons, the ferroniobium average unit value, the named substitute alloying elements, and the agency's own description of the Nebraska project
Once operational, the site would be the only niobium mine and primary niobium-processing facility in the United States.
backsC12C13
S07primarygovernment data2025-01-01
USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries, January 2025 - Scandium United States Geological Survey
the earlier consumption and production estimates that give the rate of change, and the older United States yearend price series for 99.99% scandium oxide in 5-kilogram lots which the company's own annual report quotes
In 2024, the global consumption of scandium oxide was estimated to be about 30 to 40 tons per year with a global capacity estimate of 80 tons per year.
backsC07C34
S08primarycompany release2025-11-01
Rio Tinto news release: Rio Tinto and Canada Growth Fund announce transaction to advance Canadian production of scandium Rio Tinto
a competitor's own account of the North American scandium market: the Sorel-Tracy demonstration plant, its 2022 start, the expansion to nine tonnes a year, the roughly C$25M from the Canada Growth Fund and the Government of Canada offtake
currently accounts for the entirety of North American scandium supply
backsC10
S09primaryvendor data2026-08-26
NB research pack, frozen at content/NB/research-pack.json
content/NB/research-pack.json
price, market value, the 20-day range, the 252-day return, theme co-movement against MP Materials and USA Rare Earth, the analyst split and estimates, insider transaction codes, and the measured price reaction to each news item
backsC29C30C38
S10primarycompany release2025-10-14
NioCorp preliminary unaudited results for the three months ended 30 September 2025 (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1)
the record cash balance and share count at 30 September 2025, the three offerings closed in that quarter with their prices and gross proceeds, the $32.1M non-cash loss on earnout and warrant liabilities, and the 407 acres bought
backsC19
S11primaryregulator2026-08-26
SEC EDGAR full submissions index for CIK 0001512228 United States Securities and Exchange Commission
the complete filing history, which shows nothing filed after 29 July 2026 and therefore no filing behind either the August feasibility study or the Lockheed memorandum
backsC27
S12primarycompany filing2026-04-06
NioCorp Form 8-K, 6 April 2026 - amended and restated shareholder rights plan
the November 2025 rights plan, its extension to the 2027 annual meeting, and the 11,300,000 shares available under the amended long-term incentive plan
backsC39
S13primarygovernment data2026-02-01
USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries, February 2026 - Scandium, salient statistics price table United States Geological Survey
the 2021 to 2025 global average price series for 99.99% scandium oxide powder, against which the study's assumption is measured. Same document and same origin as S05; listed separately because the figures sit in a table rather than in the narrative S05 quotes
Price, global, dollars per kilogram, range of average values: Scandium oxide, powder, 99.99% purity, 5- to 100-kilogram lot size: 890-1,000 820-880 700-740 660-670 640
backsC06C07
S14primarycompany release2025-11-01
Rio Tinto news release, 1 November 2025 - capacity and investment terms Rio Tinto
the nine-tonne target and the size of the Canada Growth Fund investment. Same document and origin as S08, listed separately so the figures the threat claim leans on sit inside a quoted passage
CGF will invest approximately C$25 million to support production, expanding the facility's nameplate capacity to nine tonnes per annum
backsC10
S15primarycompany release2026-08-04
NioCorp release, 4 August 2026 - the memorandum's contemplated volume and term
the volume and term of the Lockheed memorandum. Same release and origin as S04, which carries the non-binding statement
the potential purchase of up to 15 tonnes/year of scandium oxide from NioCorp, in either oxide form or in the form of aluminum-scandium alloys, over the next 10 years
backsC11
S16primarygovernment data2026-02-01
USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries, February 2026 - Niobium, United States consumption and the Brazilian share United States Geological Survey
the denominator the planned niobium output is measured against, and its direction of travel. Same document and origin as S06, which carries the agency's statement about the Nebraska site
In 2025, U.S. niobium apparent consumption (measured in niobium content) was estimated to be 9,900 tons, a 6% decrease from that in 2024.
backsC12
S17primarycompany filing2026-09-25
NioCorp Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 30 June 2026
the cover share count, Item 1 headcount and the EXIM history, the funding mix of about 65% debt and 35% equity and the costs outside the capital estimate, the definition of the 2026 study as a pre-feasibility study, the subsidiary table with 81.33% of Elk Creek Resources, the Department of War reimbursements received, the portal project budget and spend, the audited balance sheet at 30 June 2026 and the AI-demand risk factor; and, read 2026-10-04, Part III: the officers' appointment dates and careers, the fiscal 2026 pay tables, the annual incentive plan's weights and payout, the fiscal 2027 pay changes, the beneficial ownership table at 25 September 2026 and the CEO loan, plus the income statement, cash flow statement and warrant expiry table
backsC01C02C03C11C16C17C20C21C22C24C26C27C32C35C36C37C46C47C48C49C50C51C52
S18primarycompany filing2026-09-25
S-K 1300 technical report summary for the 2026 Elk Creek Study, Exhibit 96.1 to the FY2026 Form 10-K
the qualified persons' statement of why the study is pre-feasibility, the mineral reserve at 30 June 2026 including rare earths, the economic results, the year-by-year scandium price table, the resource-versus-model price comparison, OnG Commodities' August 2025 and June 2026 scandium forecasts and supply-demand table, and the draft Traxys agreement and the two ferroniobium offtakes' volumes
backsC03C04C05C26C27C28C32C36C37C43C44C45
S19primarycompany filing2026-02-25
NioCorp definitive proxy statement (DEF 14A) for the 6 April 2026 annual meeting
the fiscal 2025 pay design: no formal benchmarks or performance criteria, no cash bonus for fiscal 2025, options granted ad hoc and fully vested on the grant date; and the beneficial ownership table at 9 February 2026
backsC47C48
S20primarycompany release2026-10-13
NioCorp release, 13 October 2026 - definitive Traxys agreement
The signed Traxys agreement: terms, what it replaces, and the condition that deliveries depend on financing and construction. No 8-K carried it by 13 October.
Under the binding Agreement, Traxys will purchase, on a take-or-pay basis, 50% of NioCorp’s planned ferroniobium production from its Elk Creek Project over the first 15 years of production.
backsC26

NioCorp Developments

השורה התחתונה

החברה

ממה היא מרוויחה

ההנהלה

היתרון התחרותי, ומי מאיים עליו

למה הלקוחות נשארים

האיום

פוטנציאל הצמיחה

גודל ההזדמנות

מי כבר התחייב

התוצאות

עלות הצמיחה

הדוח האחרון (14 במאי)

המחיר, ואיפה אנחנו חלוקים על השוק

השלבים שעליה לעבור

איפה אנחנו חלוקים על השוק

מה יכול להשתבש, ואיך נדע

הסיכונים

מה ישנה את ההערכה שלנו

מה בהמשך

מקורות 20

Sources - 20