The GEO Group
GEO runs immigration detention centres and electronic ankle-monitor programmes for the US government, mostly in buildings it owns.
The scores
Growth3/4 ↑
Revenue up 15% in Q2 2026 on 6,000 new ICE beds, but flat from 2021 to 2024 and tied to one customer's policy.
Business quality3/4 →
Existing permitted sites are scarce and DHS pays replacement prices for them, but ICE can end contracts and plans to own its sites.
Financial position3/4 ↑
Net debt under 3 times profit, nothing due before 2029, cash flow covers spending; the 10.25% notes are costly.
Execution record3/4 →
Guidance raised twice and beaten in 2026 and the first DHS sale closed, but Q4 2025 missed, Florida slipped a year, the sale date twice.
Per share capture3/4 ↑
Buybacks cut diluted shares 6% with no convertibles and the authorization is now $1.25B, but a sale's proceeds go first to tax and debt holders.
Potential2/4 →
Signed 2027 contracts are bounded; the large upside, a sale and 100,000 beds, rests on DHS decisions outside GEO's control.
Risk profile2/4 →
One agency is half of revenue on terminable contracts, and federal policy can turn in one election.
Valuation2/4 ↓
At about 10 times 2026 profit against about 7 before, the price pays for the plan and several more sales; one has closed.
Evidence quality3/4 →
Filings, the statute and TRAC's counts are solid and the first sale is in an 8-K, but further sales rest on management's words.
The Verdict
We rate GEO neutral. It runs immigration detention centres and ankle-monitor programmes for the US government, mostly in buildings it owns, and holds about a third of the people detained. Contracts are strong, but the business is mixed: it rests on one customer and on politics. On 2 October it sold three centres to the government for $950M, about $359,000 a bed, and keeps running them. The price still counts on about 4,300 more beds sold, with no agreement yet, so it is full, not cheap. A second signed sale would help; talks ending would turn the view against it.
The long caseImmigration enforcement is holding far more people in detention; GEO gains only if that lasts and it signs the sale of jails the price already counts on.
The evidence under this - 7 claims
TRAC's count for 2026-07-11 is 65,765 in detention, of whom 58,231 were arrested by ICE, below the 68,000 the chairman cites.
ICE can end the contract for non-appropriation or convenience, and the 8-K says GEO can give no assurance that it will keep managing the sites; the 8-K does not say whether the fees under the contract change.
- The 8-K does not say whether fees under the support contract change now DHS owns the buildings, so profit forgone is unknown; CoreCivic's guidance fell about $15M on $2.2B of sales.
- The $705M is GEO's expectation after tax and fees, and the debt indentures take their share first.
The vendor puts enterprise value at $5.72B on a higher share count; the filed count is used here.
- 2026-10-06editedre-struck at the 2026-10-05 close, $32.34, after the Adelanto sale
In May the chairman guessed 'late Q2, maybe early Q3' for first sales; in August it became end of Q3, possibly Q4; one facility needs a separate appraisal.
- 2026-10-06editedthe first sale closed on 2026-10-02 (C55); what remains in process is the further sales, with no agreement or date
The company
GEO houses, feeds, guards, transports and gives medical care to people held by Immigration and Customs Enforcement, the agency known as ICE, while their cases are decided. It also runs prisons for states and for Australia and South Africa, and halfway houses for people leaving prison.
ICE's alternative is to build its own centres or rent cells in county jails. Congress gave it $45B for detention in 2025, and GEO added about 6,000 ICE beds that year.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
The per-bed figure is the seller's average; the four prices range from $238.4M to $739.2M and DHS publishes none of them per bed.
- 2026-10-06editedGEO's own per-bed price, the DHS purchase the refresh trigger named, is now known
How it makes money
ICE pays GEO for each detainee each day, or a fixed monthly sum per centre. In its detention business GEO took in about $118 per person per day in Q2 2026. ICE alone paid 47.6% of 2025 revenue.
The smaller monitoring business charges ICE for each person on an ankle monitor or phone app. It is about a tenth of revenue but keeps about 41 cents of each dollar as profit, against about 22 cents in detention.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
Where the money comes from, stream by stream
| Stream | Share of sales (FY2025) | How it earns it |
|---|---|---|
| Owned and leased secure facilities | 52.8% | ICE, Marshals and state detainees housed in GEO's own buildings, paid per person per day or a fixed monthly sum. |
| Managed-only facilities | 24.4% | Staffing and running government-owned prisons and detention centres in the US, Australia and South Africa for a management fee. |
| Electronic monitoring and other reentry | 16.6% | BI's ankle monitors, phone app and casework for ICE's ISAP programme and state and county parole, paid per participant per day. |
| Owned and leased community reentry | 6.3% | Residential reentry centres for people leaving prison, run for federal and state agencies in buildings GEO owns or leases. |
Who runs it
George Zoley founded GEO in 1984 and took back the chief executive job in March 2026, after three others came and went in five years; a long-time insider, Shayn March, now runs the money. Insiders own about 5%, most of it Zoley's. The bonus rides on profit before interest and on sales; other officers' long-term shares ride on return on capital and the stock price, while Zoley's simply vest with time. Nothing pays on cash flow.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
Why it wins, and who could beat it
Why customers come back
What GEO has that is hard to copy is the building: a secure, approved site near where ICE arrests people. Towns fight new ones. ICE tried to buy warehouses to convert instead, and local opposition blocked at least 12.
The proof is the price. The government paid about $307,000 a bed for CoreCivic's centres, against $131,000 a bed that Oklahoma paid GEO for an ordinary state prison in 2025.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
The Lawton sale was a state prison bought by a state, not an ICE site, so the comparison mixes buyers; and ICE's owning the sites is itself the route by which this moat is bought out.
The per-bed figure is the seller's average; the four prices range from $238.4M to $739.2M and DHS publishes none of them per bed.
- 2026-10-06editedGEO's own per-bed price, the DHS purchase the refresh trigger named, is now known
The threat
The customer wants to own the buildings. ICE's own plan is to run mainly from sites it owns. If it buys GEO's centres, GEO gets cash but becomes an operator that ICE can later replace with CoreCivic or someone else at the next tender.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
ICE is re-procuring four GEO sites as long contracts before any sale, and the chairman says several sites already carry long support contracts, which would delay any re-bid.
The rivals: CXW, and 2 more that are private, in-house or listed abroad.
Who else does this, rival by rival
| Ticker | Rival | Where it competes | How far along | Priced against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not listed | U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, through its Detention Reengineering Initiative of ICE-owned converted warehousesPriced against it: Not listed | U.S. Secure Services | Announced | Not listed |
| CXW | CoreCivicPriced against it: Same product | U.S. Secure Services | On sale | Same product |
| Private | Allied UniversalPriced against it: Private | Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services | On sale | Private |
How big it could get
How big this could get
On 11 July 2026 ICE held 65,765 people. At GEO's rate of about $118 a day, that is roughly $2.8B a year of detention, and GEO had contracts for about 26,000 of those beds at the end of 2025.
Management says ICE wants about 100,000 beds. That figure is the company's; the count has not passed 70,766.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
A leaked July 2025 ICE plan aimed at 107,759 beds by the end of 2025; TRAC's count has not passed 70,766 and was 65,765 in July 2026.
Who has signed
ICE signed five-year contracts for two reopened centres, Big Horn and Rivers, worth about $165M a year from 2027, and a two-year monitoring contract. Florida signed two prisons worth about $100M from July 2027. Every government contract can be ended on months of notice.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
The Florida contracts already slipped a year on unresolved state budget issues, and the revenue figures are management's first-full-year estimates.
Where the growth is coming from, business by business
Where the growth is coming from
| Business | Share of revenue | Growth: last quarter | Last half-year | Last year | Share in 3 years at its half-year rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Us Corrections And Detention | 71% | +17.8% | +20.7% | +16.7% | 77% |
| Electronic Monitoring And Supervision Services | 10% | -3.5% | -4.0% | -6.1% | 6% |
| Reentry Services | 10% | +1.6% | +1.4% | +1.2% | 6% |
| International Services Segment | 9% | +42.3% | +26.3% | +10.3% | 11% |
| Whole company | 100% | +15.1% | +15.8% | +11.3% | 100% |
On the filed split through 2026-06-30, if each business keeps its last half-year's growth, the company grows about 17% next year and 18% in year 3, against 15.3% over the last twelve months. A scenario, not a forecast: no business holds its rate.
The results
The numbers
Sales grew 15% over the twelve months to Jun 2026, faster than the 8.6% in the year to Dec 2025.
Operating margin is 11%, down from 15% in the year to Dec 2023.
Yearly sales growth has ranged from −4.0% to +8.6% over the last 5 years, with sales falling in 1 of them.
Each dollar put into the business earns 7.5% a year after tax, about where it was (8.2%) in the year to Dec 2022.
It turned 0.9% of sales into free cash, $26.4M over the last twelve months.
It owes $1.49B more than the cash it holds, about 7.5 years of the cash its operations bring in.
The share count rose 9.4% in 4.5 years, and pay in shares costs 0.9% of sales.
All the numbers
Filed figures from the company's 10-K and 10-Q, read 2026-10-16. Fiscal years end in December.
| Dec 2021 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2025 | 12 mo to Jun 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Size and growth | ||||||
| Sales | $2.26B | $2.38B | $2.41B | $2.42B | $2.63B | $2.83B |
| Sales growth | −4.0% | +5.3% | +1.5% | +0.4% | +8.6% | +15% |
| Profit | ||||||
| Operating margin | 13% | 16% | 15% | 13% | 9.8% | 11% |
| Net margin | 3.4% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 1.3% | 9.7% | 10% |
| What growth costs, per sales dollar | ||||||
| General and admin | 9.1% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 8.8% |
| Pay in shares | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| Capital spending | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 7.5% | 6.1% |
| Cash | ||||||
| Cash from operations | $283M | $288M | $278M | $242M | $72.6M | $199M |
| Free cash flow | $213M | $198M | $205M | $164M | −$125M | $26.4M |
| Balance sheet | ||||||
| Cash and short-term investments | $506M | $95.1M | $94.0M | $76.9M | $69.0M | $55.0M |
| Debt | $2.64B | $1.98B | $1.78B | $1.71B | $1.65B | $1.54B |
| Net cash | −$2.14B | −$1.88B | −$1.69B | −$1.64B | −$1.58B | −$1.49B |
| Returns and shares | ||||||
| Return on capital | - | 8.2% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 7.5% |
| Shares (diluted) | 121M | 122M | 124M | 134M | 140M | 132M |
What growth costs
Growth costs GEO almost as much as it brings in: every new bed needs guards, food and medical care, and the fast-growing part has been detention while the more profitable monitoring business shrank. So profit margins narrowed from 2022 to 2025, and only began to widen again in 2026 as new contracts filled.
The evidence under this - 2 claims
- In the first half of 2026 operating expenses fell to 73.2 cents per sales dollar from 74.9 a year earlier and operating margin rose to 13.3% from 10.7%, as newly activated ICE contracts filled (S02).
- 2025's capital spending included reopening idle sites for ICE, a one-off rather than a cost that grows with sales (C23).
The last report (6 Aug)
Quarter ended June 2026, filed figures.
Q2 2026 was strong. Revenue rose 15% to $732.1M and profit to shareholders rose to $47.5M from $29.1M, beating what analysts expected for the second quarter running.
The growth came from three company-owned centres ICE started using in 2025, with centres 91% full against 88% a year earlier. GEO raised its forecast for the year a second time. The weak spot was monitoring, where revenue fell as fewer people were enrolled under a cheaper contract.
What it did to the thesisIt supported the operating story: more detention beds filled and the forecast rose again. It did nothing for the part the price depends on, a sale of beds to the government that was then unsigned, and the monitoring business kept shrinking. That leaves the view at Neutral.
The quarter in detail
Sales growth from the previous quarter, filed figures.
Earnings per share $0.37 against $0.29 expected; $0.36 as filed, the gap being what the company adds back.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
The August guide assumes smaller labour-cost savings in the second half and excludes Big Horn, Rivers and the Florida contracts; Q4 2025 earnings of $0.25 a share missed the $0.27 expected.
What management did with the money
Management spent about $177M buying back 10.1M shares since August 2025, cutting the share count by about 6%, and on 5 October raised its buyback limit to $1.25B. It says Adelanto's proceeds go to debt, buybacks and general purposes, with no split, against about $1.54B of debt not due before 2029.
Insiders in 2026Q2: 2 purchases and 0 sales, from their Form 4 filings.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
- 2026-10-10editedthe 8-K of 2026-10-08 gives the size, price and date of the 2029 redemption and the new revolver maturity; the June-30 balances are otherwise unchanged until the Q3 10-Q
The authorization does not oblige GEO to buy any shares, and the CFO has said proceeds must first satisfy the indenture and credit-agreement terms.
- 2026-10-10editedthe 8-K of 2026-10-08 shows the new credit agreement's buyback test; the proceeds' use still has no stated split beyond the 2029 redemption
The price, and where we disagree
In short. Full. The price counts on GEO selling about 4,300 more beds to the government after the first sale closed; none is agreed.
In July and August 2026 the government bought four of CoreCivic's jails for $2.2B. On 2 October it bought three of GEO's in Adelanto, California, for $950M, and GEO reported it on 5 October. The shares rose 3.6% that day; they had risen 80% in six months, mostly because buyers paid more for each dollar of sales.
GEO says it is still negotiating more, with no agreement or date, and one county extended a GEO centre's agreement by only six months. Q3 2026 results on 5 November are the next chance to hear whether a second sale is agreed.
The evidence under this - 6 claims
ICE can end the contract for non-appropriation or convenience, and the 8-K says GEO can give no assurance that it will keep managing the sites; the 8-K does not say whether the fees under the contract change.
In May the chairman guessed 'late Q2, maybe early Q3' for first sales; in August it became end of Q3, possibly Q4; one facility needs a separate appraisal.
- 2026-10-06editedthe first sale closed on 2026-10-02 (C55); what remains in process is the further sales, with no agreement or date
- 2026-10-06editedthe 8-K that the claim said had not been filed was filed on 2026-10-05
How we read the multiple
Counting debt, a buyer pays about 10 times the cash profit, before interest and tax, that GEO forecasts for this year, against about 7 times usually. Counting the $705M GEO expects from Adelanto against its debt, it is about 9 times.
At 7 times, the business alone is worth about $18 a share. The rest of the price is roughly what selling 8,200 beds to the government would bring after tax at CoreCivic's price. Adelanto's 2,644 beds cover about 38% of that; about 4,300 more are not agreed.
Against its own history. Buyers are paying well above GEO's own normal, which it has earned only while federal detention policy runs its way.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
The vendor puts enterprise value at $5.72B on a higher share count; the filed count is used here.
- 2026-10-06editedre-struck at the 2026-10-05 close, $32.34, after the Adelanto sale
- The gap could instead be paying for 2027 growth: Big Horn, Rivers and Florida add about $265M of signed revenue, which at a segment margin near 22% is roughly $55M of profit, worth about $0.4B at 7 times, not $1.7B.
- GEO's tax basis in its buildings is not disclosed per site, so its tax on a sale could differ from CoreCivic's 26%.
- 2026-10-06editedre-struck at the 2026-10-05 close and the first sale's proceeds set against the gap
- The 8-K does not say whether fees under the support contract change now DHS owns the buildings, so profit forgone is unknown; CoreCivic's guidance fell about $15M on $2.2B of sales.
- The $705M is GEO's expectation after tax and fees, and the debt indentures take their share first.
- The contracts at the four sites have not been re-priced yet; if DHS strips out the building's return from the per diem, the lost profit could be several times $15M.
- About 26% of CoreCivic's gross proceeds went in tax, which a per-bed headline hides.
Priced against its rivals
Only CoreCivic sells the same thing to the same buyers as a large part of what it does. A price comparison needs at least two, so the price is judged against its own history instead.
Private or foreign rivals that cannot be priced: Management and Training Corporation, LaSalle Corrections, Allied Universal, Sodexo Justice Services, Serco.
Where we disagree with the market
The market sees GEO as the main winner of mass detention, with more jail sales to the government as near-certain extra value.
We think sales add value and one has closed, but most of what the price counts on is unagreed, and each sale turns GEO into an operator ICE can replace.
This stock has swung by half its value on detention politics before: it jumped 42% on the 2024 election, then fell 62% during its best year of contract wins. The price follows headlines, and the headline now is jail sales.
We could be wrong. A second signed sale that takes the total to 5,000 beds or more near $300,000 each, with GEO still running them, or detention passing 75,000, would make the price look cheap.
What analysts say, and the evidence
The evidence under this - 9 claims
- The gap could instead be paying for 2027 growth: Big Horn, Rivers and Florida add about $265M of signed revenue, which at a segment margin near 22% is roughly $55M of profit, worth about $0.4B at 7 times, not $1.7B.
- GEO's tax basis in its buildings is not disclosed per site, so its tax on a sale could differ from CoreCivic's 26%.
- 2026-10-06editedre-struck at the 2026-10-05 close and the first sale's proceeds set against the gap
- The 8-K does not say whether fees under the support contract change now DHS owns the buildings, so profit forgone is unknown; CoreCivic's guidance fell about $15M on $2.2B of sales.
- The $705M is GEO's expectation after tax and fees, and the debt indentures take their share first.
In May the chairman guessed 'late Q2, maybe early Q3' for first sales; in August it became end of Q3, possibly Q4; one facility needs a separate appraisal.
- 2026-10-06editedthe first sale closed on 2026-10-02 (C55); what remains in process is the further sales, with no agreement or date
- 2026-10-06editedthe 8-K that the claim said had not been filed was filed on 2026-10-05
ICE is re-procuring four GEO sites as long contracts before any sale, and the chairman says several sites already carry long support contracts, which would delay any re-bid.
The 2025 fall also tracked real disappointment: ISAP participants fell and its contract was repriced, and 2025 Adjusted EBITDA was flat at $464.4M against $463.5M.
What could go wrong, and how we would know
The risks
- One customer is half the business. ICE paid 47.6% of 2025 revenue, and its contracts can be ended on 30 to 180 days' notice.
- Politics can turn fast. A future president could restrict private detention, as a 2021 order did for Justice Department prison contracts.
- Detention has stopped growing. ICE held 70,766 people in January 2026 and 65,765 in July, far short of the 100,000 management talks about.
- A sale shrinks the moat. Once ICE owns a building, the running contract can be put out to tender, and GEO's advantage becomes a contract rather than a site.
- Detainee wage lawsuits. Washington courts ordered $37.6M paid to detainees who worked in a GEO centre; similar suits in California and Colorado wait on the Supreme Court.
The evidence under this - 6 claims
ICE is re-procuring four GEO sites as long contracts before any sale, and the chairman says several sites already carry long support contracts, which would delay any re-bid.
What we still do not know
- How GEO's running fees at Adelanto change now the government owns the buildings, and what price further sales would get.
- How much of a sale would go in tax. GEO does not disclose what its buildings cost it, site by site.
- Whether detention resumes growing toward 100,000 or has levelled off near 65,000.
- Whether the Supreme Court takes GEO's appeal on detainee wages.
The evidence under this - 6 claims
In May the chairman guessed 'late Q2, maybe early Q3' for first sales; in August it became end of Q3, possibly Q4; one facility needs a separate appraisal.
- 2026-10-06editedthe first sale closed on 2026-10-02 (C55); what remains in process is the further sales, with no agreement or date
The per-bed figure is the seller's average; the four prices range from $238.4M to $739.2M and DHS publishes none of them per bed.
- 2026-10-06editedGEO's own per-bed price, the DHS purchase the refresh trigger named, is now known
- The contracts at the four sites have not been re-priced yet; if DHS strips out the building's return from the per diem, the lost profit could be several times $15M.
- About 26% of CoreCivic's gross proceeds went in tax, which a per-bed headline hides.
ICE can end the contract for non-appropriation or convenience, and the 8-K says GEO can give no assurance that it will keep managing the sites; the 8-K does not say whether the fees under the contract change.
What would change our view
- Neutral→AttractiveA further signed sale at DHS's price, with detention growing again
It needs all of:
- ○GEO's signed sales to the government reach 5,000 beds at $250,000 a bed or more, with GEO still running them (2,644 sold).watched as it happens
- ○The number of people in ICE detention passes 70,000.checked at the next results, due by 5 Nov
- Neutral→AttractiveA cheaper price on unchanged execution
It needs all of:
- ○The price falls to 8 times last year's cash profit before interest and tax.about ≈$23.31 today, 25% below the last close
- ○Q3 2026 cash profit before interest and tax reaches at least $140M, the bottom of GEO's forecast.checked at the next results, due by 5 Nov
- Neutral→UnattractiveDemand turns or the sale breaks
It needs any of:
- ○The number of people in ICE detention falls below 60,000.checked at the next results, due by 5 Nov
- ○GEO says talks to sell more centres to the government have ended without a deal.watched as it happens
We would also be wrong if
- ICE ends or does not renew the contract at any centre GEO owns.
- GEO's forecast for 2027 cash profit before interest and tax, due February 2027, is below $600M.
What is coming
- 5 November 2026 Q3 2026 results: Adjusted EBITDA against the $140M-$145M guide, Adelanto's effect on profit and debt, and whether a further DHS sale is signed with GEO operating it.
Every dated event ahead
- 5 November 2026 Q3 2026 results: Adjusted EBITDA against the $140M-$145M guide, Adelanto's effect on profit and debt, and whether a further DHS sale is signed with GEO operating it.
- 31 December 2026 44 contracts reach their renewal date: Whether ICE renews or re-bids the sites it uses, about a tenth of revenue; a lost re-bid would test the moat that rests on owning the building.
- March 2027 Moshannon Valley county agreement expires: Whether local opposition can close a large ICE site GEO already runs, the main threat to the permitted-site advantage.
- 1 July 2027 Florida's Graceville and Bay facilities start: Whether the about $100M of state contracts that slipped a year start on the new date, a check on execution after two delays.
Since we wrote this
- 19 OctNewsGEO finished repaying its 2029 secured notes, as it said it would. View heldGEO completes redemption of its 2029 secured notes.
- 10 OctNews2029 notes to be repaid for about $678M from sale proceedsGEO will redeem its 8.625% notes on 15 October with Adelanto money and extended its credit line to 2031. It is debt repayment, not new value, so the view stays Neutral.
- 6 OctNewsFirst DHS sale closed: Adelanto, $950M, about $359,300 a bedGEO sold 2,644 beds to DHS and keeps running them. It covers about 38% of what the price pays beyond the business; further sales have no agreement, so the view stays Neutral.
- 5 OctThesis reviewThe long case now sits under the verdictAfter the five-name pilot, the owner asked for the long case on every thesis.
- 4 OctThesis reviewOwner's checklist: revenue streams, cost of growth, management, catalystsThe owner's checklist found the method silent on who runs the company, what growth costs, where the money comes from and what is dated ahead; this pass fills those four blocks from the proxy and filings.
- 27 SepThesis writtenNeutral, medium convictionWritten five weeks before Q3 2026 results, after CoreCivic's four sales to DHS and with GEO's own sale still unsigned.
Also checked 2 times with nothing new to act on.
Sources 26
Sources - 26
Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.
- S01primarycompany filing2026-02-25Item 1 business, contract developments, the facility table, idle beds, competition, customer concentration, contract terms, re-bids and renewals, and the risk factors on policybacksC02C03C11C17C22C28C36C41C45C48C49C53
- S02primarycompany filing2026-08-06segment revenue and operating income, compensated mandays and occupancy, the MD&A on ISAP, debt note, cash flow, share count and the litigation notebacksC01C06C07C11C24C25C26C27C28
- S03primarycompany release2026-08-06Q2 figures, the raised 2026 guidance, Q3 and Q4 guidance, the Big Horn and Rivers contracts, the Florida delay, the balance sheet and buybacksbacksC06C09C10C23C24C25
- S04primarytranscript2026-08-06GEO Q2 2026 earnings call transcriptmanagement on ICE census, the 100,000-bed aim, the DHS purchase process, ISAP mix and skip tracing; questions from Noble, Northland and Raymond James analysts
Our current census across our active ice facilities is approximately 24 thousand representing more than 1/3 of the current national ICE population of approximately 68 thousand. ... they may be trying to activate maybe 2 or 3. That would be maybe 5 thousand beds. ... focus within the agency and throughout the agency is to try to stand up approximately 100 thousand beds. ... I believe ICE has maybe $36 billion left for the buildup and of new facilities.
backsC05C14C20C22C23C39C44 - S05primarycompany release2026-02-122025 revenue, Adjusted EBITDA and the Lawton gain, the initial 2026 guidance, ICE capacity rising from about 20,000 to about 26,000 bedsbacksC09C32C43
- S06primarytranscript2026-05-06GEO Q1 2026 earnings call transcriptmanagement's first account of the DHS purchase plan, the paused warehouse project, the 50,000 owned beds and its timing guess for the first sales
At this time, the warehouse project has been paused, and DHS is evaluating how to proceed with this initiative to increase and consolidate detention capacity. ... including 50,000 owned beds at 70 facilities
backsC05C39 - S07primarycompany filing2026-08-06the four facility sales to DHS, each price, the taxes and the net proceeds, and that CoreCivic keeps managing thembacksC16
- S08primarytranscript2026-08-06CoreCivic Q2 2026 earnings call transcript CXWthe $307,000 average price per bed, the lowered 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance after the sales, and lower ICE populations in Q2 2026
we estimate our net proceeds from these 4 sales to be approximately $1.6 billion At an average price per bed of $307 thousand and considering the location, size, cost, time, and effort to replace these facilities
backsC17C18 - S09secondaryindustry data2026-09-27the national detention count and the alternatives-to-detention count, compiled from ICE's own releases by a university-founded research group
Immigration and Customs Enforcement held 65,765 in ICE detention according to data current as of July 11, 2026 . ... ICE Alternatives to Detention (ATD) programs are currently monitoring 183,181 families and single individuals, according to data current as of July 11, 2026
backsC12C13 - S10secondaryindustry data2026-09-27the detention count every two to twelve weeks since 2019, so the trend and the plateau since January 2026 are measured rather than asserted
{"date":"07/11/2026","ice_all":58231,"cbp_all":7534,"total_all":65765 ... {"date":"04/04/2026","ice_all":51428,"cbp_all":8883,"total_all":60311 ... {"date":"01/25/2026","ice_all":59644,"cbp_all":11122,"total_all":70766 ... {"date":"07/13/2025","ice_all":41349,"cbp_all":15467,"total_all":56816 ... {"date":"01/26/2025","ice_all":14882,"cbp_all":24356,"total_all":39238
backsC13 - S11secondaryindustry data2026-09-27the count on ankle monitors against the phone app, by field office; the national ankle-monitor totals, 53,192 on 2026-07-11 and 24,566 on 2025-07-12, are summed across field offices here, which corroborates GEO's account of the ISAP mix from outside the company
{"aor":"","atd_technology":"Total","count_num":183181,"alip_num":" 788.5","download_date":"07/11/2026","family_unit":"All"} ... {"aor":"Atlanta","atd_technology":"Ankle Monitor","count_num":4080,"alip_num":" 616.4","download_date":"07/11/2026","family_unit":"All"}
backsC12 - S12primarygovernment data2026-09-27the enacted size and expiry of the detention money, from the statute rather than from GEO's account of it
there is appropriated to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement for fiscal year 2025, out of any money in the Treasury not otherwise appropriated, to remain available until September 30, 2029, $45,000,000,000, for single adult alien detention capacity and family residential center capacity.
backsC15 - S13secondaryother2026-09-27American Immigration Council, 'ICE's Warehouse Purchases Herald New Model for Immigration Detention' American Immigration CouncilICE's Detention Reengineering Initiative as released by the New Hampshire government: 16 warehouse processing centres, 8 large warehouses, 10 turnkey purchases; ICE owned 10 of about 220 sites in February 2025; 9 warehouses bought, at least 12 purchases blocked
ICE plans to do away with the decades of somewhat inefficient acquisition of contract detention capacity in pre-existing jails and prisons and instead replace the current system with a new one, under which ICE primarily operates out of 34 facilitiesthat it owns outright ... As of February 2025, ICE owned just 10 facilities out of the 220 which are currently being used to detain immigrants. ... ICE has already spent over $700 million to purchase 9 out of 24warehouses they intend to refurbish for this new project. ... Local advocacy and outrage has successfully blocked the purchase of at least 12 more
backsC38 - S14secondarynews2026-09-23Philadelphia Inquirer, 'GEO Group wins extended contract for Moshannon Valley detention center' Philadelphia InquirerClearfield County's 2-1 vote extending the Moshannon Valley agreement to mid-March 2027, and local reporting of a possible sale
There are signs the Moshannon Valley Processing Center could end up being sold to the federal government.
backsC21 - S15secondaryvendor data2026-09-27Research pack, frozen 2026-09-27 (FMP market data, FINRA short interest)close of $31.22 on 2026-09-25, the 52-week range, the price-move decomposition, the analyst split, short interest, the vendor's EV/EBITDA history and the EPS estimatesbacksC10C28C29C33C34
- S16primarycompany filing2026-09-27GEO insider Form 4 filings read by insider_fetch.py, 2025-09 to 2026-09no open-market purchases; five open-market sales of 38,930 shares, four of them discretionary, at $30 to $32 in August and September 2026backsC47
- S17tertiarynews2026-02-12Investing.com, 'GEO Group Q4 2025 slides: revenue growth overshadowed by EPS miss, stock tumbles' Investing.comthe stated objection on 2026-02-12: a $0.25 EPS against $0.27 expected, and 2026 guidance below 2025's gain-inflated $1.82backsC34
- S18primarycompany filing2026-02-20CoreCivic's description of the same business, its 71,884 beds at 77% occupancy, and its competition sectionbacksC37
- S19primarycompany filing2026-09-27no 8-K since the Q2 results on 2026-08-06; only Forms 4, 144 and 13GbacksC21
- S20primarycompany filing2026-03-19executive officers and their start dates, beneficial ownership at March 6, 2026, the 2025 bonus metrics and payouts, the performance-stock design, the special award to the chairman, and the pay-versus-performance table naming each chief executive since 2021backsC50C51C52C53
- S21primarycompany filing2026-10-04GEO XBRL company facts, FY2020 to the four quarters to June 2026, frozen as content/GEO/financials.jsoncontent/GEO/financials.jsonrevenue, general and administrative, share pay, capital spending, operating income, long-term debt and diluted share counts per year; GEO tags no research, selling or cost-of-revenue linebacksC49C53
- S22secondaryvendor data2026-10-04Earnings calendar saved by the daily routine, content/calendar/2026-10-04.json (FMP earnings, per symbol)content/calendar/2026-10-04.jsonthe next results date, 5 November 2026
"GEO": {"archived": false, "next": {"date": "2026-11-05"
backsC54 - S23primarycompany filing2026-10-05the sale of the Adelanto West, Adelanto East and Desert View facilities to DHS for $950,000,000 completed 2026-10-02, about $705M of expected net proceeds, the existing ICE contract's term to 2034-12-19, the buyback authorization raised from $500M to $1.25B, and that no definitive agreement exists for any further salebacksC17C20C21C31C55C56
- S24primarycompany filing2026-10-05the bed counts of the three facilities (1,280, 660 and 704), the use of proceeds (reduce debt, repurchase shares, general purposes), the authorization effective through 2029-12-31, and the chairman's statement on continuing to operate under the ICE contractsbacksC55C56
- S25secondaryvendor data2026-10-06FMP end-of-day closes for GEO via research.eod_bars, read 2026-10-06content/GEO/updates/2026-10-06-news.jsonthe 2026-10-05 close of $32.34 and the 52-week intraday high of $33.20
{'time': '2026-10-05', 'open': 32.9, 'high': 33.2, 'low': 31.67, 'close': 32.34}
backsC29C30C31 - S26primarycompany filing2026-10-08notice to redeem all $650.0M of 8.625% senior secured notes due 2029 at $1,043.13 per $1,000 (about $678M) on 2026-10-15, funded from the net proceeds of the recent asset sales; the revolver kept at $550.0M and extended to 2031-07-14; unlimited restricted payments, including buybacks, while pro forma total leverage is 2.25 times or lessbacksC24C56