IonQ
IonQ builds quantum computers from trapped atoms and has bought its way into networking, sensing, space and now a chip factory.
The scores
Growth3/4 ↑
Revenue rose 287% in Q2 2026 and 132% leaving out recent purchases, but a material part was bought with shares and the base is small.
Business quality2/4 →
A scale lead over listed rivals, but DARPA sees no winning design, Quantinuum uses the same ions and the cloud resellers build their own.
Financial position3/4 ↑
About $4.0B of cash after October's share sale and no debt cover over five years of burn; no new money needed.
Execution record3/4 ↑
Revenue beat guidance by 20% in the last two reports and technical milestones landed as stated, but this management's record is under two years.
Per share capture2/4 ↓
Diluted shares rose 46.5% in a year from share-paid deals and stock pay above revenue; revenue per share still tripled, keeping it off Diluted away.
Potential2/4 →
About $1.0B a year of US research money bounds today's buyers; the large prize needs a working machine and a commercial market, outside IonQ's control.
Risk profile3/4 ↑
Two customers were a third of Q2 revenue and government budgets drive demand; concentrated but no single ruling or contract breaks the case.
Valuation1/4 ↑
About 32 times 2026 quantum revenue at a quarter margin assumes a commercial quantum business nobody has yet built.
Evidence quality3/4 →
Filings, rivals' filings, DARPA and federal budget data carry the facts, but the technical milestones and growth leaving out purchases are the company's own.
If it works 1.9× · if it fails you keep about 22%.
The Verdict
We rate IonQ unattractive. It is the biggest seller in quantum computing and has the cash to keep going, but the business is mixed: much of the growth was bought with new shares, and it keeps only about a quarter of each sales dollar after stock pay. The price is stretched: most of the value rests on a small quantum business that must grow for years and earn margins no quantum seller has shown, while no design has yet won, even with IonQ's move into the defence agency's final stage. The bet is fragile: even a big success is mostly paid for already.
The long caseGovernments treat quantum computers as strategic and are paying for early machines; IonQ's case needs that spending to carry it until businesses pay to solve real problems.
The evidence under this - 7 claims
- Revenue has beaten guidance by 20% twice, so the 2026 base may be low (S03, S05).
- SkyWater could be worth more than the price paid if its quantum foundry work grows; IonQ calls it the only quantum foundry operating (S04).
- 2026-10-22editedre-struck at the 2026-10-21 close of $32.28 (from $43.77) on the daily review's maintenance route -- drift -26.3%, past the 12% trigger -- on about 458.9M shares after the offering and about $4.0B of cash
- 2026-10-22editedfolded in the October equity sale (424B5 of 2026-10-14, closed per the 8-K of 2026-10-16) that the 14 October news review priced but left for the closing to absorb
The vendor reports a trailing gross margin of 36.3%, a different definition: the filing carries cost of revenue with and without stock pay and the vendor's line matches neither quarter exactly (S16).
- 2026-10-08editedIonQ announced it advanced to Stage C; the claim now notes that, without DARPA's list of who else did
- The $300M is a potential value, not an amount obligated; the release gives no figure for the initial obligation (S21).
- DARPA's own announcement and the list of other Stage C companies were not found, so how many rivals advanced alongside is unknown (S11).
The company
IonQ holds single charged atoms still with electric fields and uses them as qubits, the working parts of a quantum computer. It sells whole machines, and time on them through Amazon, Microsoft and Google's clouds, plus secure networking, atomic clocks, sensors and satellite parts.
Its next machine puts 256 qubits on one chip, due for customers in early 2027. Quantinuum uses the same kind of atoms and reports similar accuracy. Korea and Switzerland are big buyers.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
- No independent test of the 256-qubit chip exists; DARPA's Stage B reviews plans, not machines (S11).
- Quantinuum reports 99.921% on a commercial system, so the fidelity lead is narrow (S08).
These overhead ratios are IonQ's own and are disputed by every rival design's proponents; DARPA says no architecture is dominant (S11).
How it makes money
Most sales are machines delivered to research centres and governments, with the rest from cloud time, consulting and support. After paying for the hardware and the staff stock pay inside it, IonQ kept about a quarter of each dollar last quarter.
It spends far more than it sells: research and stock pay alone were several times sales. From August the chip factory adds bigger but thinner sales, making chips for other companies.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
The vendor reports a trailing gross margin of 36.3%, a different definition: the filing carries cost of revenue with and without stock pay and the vendor's line matches neither quarter exactly (S16).
Where the money comes from, stream by stream
| Stream | Share of sales (Q2 2026) | How it earns it |
|---|---|---|
| Quantum hardware | 58.0% | Quantum computers, networking and key-distribution equipment, clocks and sensors and satellite hardware, mostly sold outright to governments and research centres. |
| Platform, consulting and support services | 42.0% | Cloud access to its machines through Amazon, Microsoft and Google and directly, plus research contracts, consulting and support on delivered systems. |
| SkyWater foundry | not yet reported | Contract chip manufacturing for outside customers; consolidated from July 31, 2026, net of IonQ's own orders, first in the Q3 2026 report. |
Who runs it
Niccolo de Masi has run IonQ since early 2025 and chaired it since that August; Inder Singh, once Arm's finance chief, has run the money since that September. Together the directors and top officers own under 1% of the company. Their bonus and long-term shares ride mostly on sales growth, none on profit or cash, and much of the chief executive's stock vests just for staying.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
The table omits unvested awards: de Masi's 2025 grants include $20M of make-whole RSUs vesting in February 2027, $20M of RSUs vesting quarterly over three years and PSUs sized at $27M at target (C47), so his economic stake is larger than the shares he holds.
- The bookings goals were removed from the 2025 bonus in August 2025 and the PSU revenue targets were reset to a new budget the same month, so both plans were re-cut mid-year.
- Most of the chief executive's 2025 award was not performance-based: $40M of his $88.3M of stock awards were time-vesting RSUs (C48).
Why it wins, and who could beat it
Why customers come back
IonQ's edge is size and money. It sold $130.0M last year, against $31.7M for Rigetti and D-Wave together, and holds about $4B of cash and no debt.
That lead was largely bought, with shares, by purchasing other companies. The technical lead is narrower: the defence research agency kept eleven designs and says none dominates, Quantinuum matches IonQ's approach, and IonQ's move to the agency's final stage is a vote on its plan, not a test of its machines. Research budgets, the main buyer, have been flat for years.
The evidence under this - 6 claims
- 2026-10-22editedfolded in the October equity sale (424B5 of 2026-10-14, closed per the 8-K of 2026-10-16) that the 14 October news review priced but left for the closing to absorb
- 2026-10-08editedIonQ announced it advanced to Stage C; the claim now notes that, without DARPA's list of who else did
The threat
Quantinuum now has the same atoms, better published accuracy and fresh cash from its listing. The clouds that rent out IonQ's machines are also building their own.
Security rules for government systems require new software codes rather than IonQ's quantum networking gear. The chip factory competes with much larger foundries on thin margins.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
The rivals: QNT, IBM, GOOGL, INFQ, TSEM, GFS, UMC, RGTI, QBTS, XNDU, and 1 more that is private, in-house or listed abroad.
Who else does this, rival by rival
| Ticker | Rival | Where it competes | How far along | Priced against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QNT | Quantinuum's trapped-ion Helios and its successorsPriced against it: Yes | Quantum platform | On sale | Yes |
| IBM · GOOGL | IBM's and Google's superconducting machinesPriced against it: Shown, not counted | Quantum platform | On sale | Shown, not counted |
| INFQ | Neutral-atom machines from Infleqtion, QuEra and Atom ComputingPriced against it: Yes | Quantum platform | On sale | Yes |
| Not listed | Post-quantum cryptography software on NIST standardsPriced against it: Not listed | Quantum platform | On sale | Not listed |
| TSEM · GFS · UMC | Specialty foundries such as Tower Semiconductor, GlobalFoundries and United MicroelectronicsPriced against it: One segment only | SkyWater foundry | On sale | One segment only |
| RGTI | Rigetti ComputingPriced against it: Yes | - | On sale | Yes |
| QBTS | D-Wave QuantumPriced against it: Yes | - | On sale | Yes |
| XNDU | Xanadu Quantum TechnologiesPriced against it: No usable figure | - | On sale | No usable figure |
How big it could get
How big this could get
Today the market is small. US federal agencies spend about $1B a year on quantum research, and that figure has not grown since 2022. IonQ sold $130.0M last year and Rigetti and D-Wave $31.7M between them.
A June executive order promises a government quantum computer and studies buying commitments, which could help. A market worth today's price needs buyers outside research labs, and none can be counted yet.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
Who has signed
Signed orders not yet delivered reached $485M, up from $122M a year earlier, though some are not yet funded. QuantumBasel in Switzerland grew its deal past $60M over four years. Florida International University ordered a 256-qubit machine at an undisclosed price. The Anduril and Sandia agreements are not binding and carry no dollars.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
The 10-Q says the backlog includes unfunded orders whose money has not been appropriated, and it excludes the Anduril and Sandia memoranda (S02, S04).
The results
The numbers
Sales grew 371% over the twelve months to Jun 2026, faster than the 202% in the year to Dec 2025.
Operating margin is −408%, up from −716% in the year to Dec 2023.
Yearly sales growth has ranged from +95% to +430% over the last 4 years.
Shareholders' money lost 61% a year, down from −33% in the year to Dec 2021.
It used $484M of cash over the last twelve months, so the $2.12B it holds lasts about 4.4 years at that pace.
The share count rose 167% in 4.5 years, and pay in shares costs 186% of sales.
All the numbers
Filed figures from the company's 10-K and 10-Q, read 2026-10-04. Fiscal years end in December.
| Dec 2021 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2025 | 12 mo to Jun 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Size and growth | ||||||
| Sales | $2.10M | $11.1M | $22.0M | $43.1M | $130M | $246M |
| Sales growth | - | +430% | +98% | +95% | +202% | +371% |
| Profit | ||||||
| Operating margin | −18× | −770% | −716% | −540% | −487% | −408% |
| Net margin | −51× | −436% | −716% | −770% | −393% | −553% |
| What growth costs, per sales dollar | ||||||
| Research and development | 964% | 395% | 419% | 318% | 235% | 182% |
| Sales and marketing | 154% | 75% | 83% | 66% | 41% | 39% |
| General and admin | 654% | 323% | 230% | 165% | 189% | 154% |
| Pay in shares | 382% | 298% | 338% | 260% | 244% | 186% |
| Capital spending | 371% | 84% | 62% | 42% | 13% | 13% |
| Cash | ||||||
| Cash from operations | −$26.5M | −$44.7M | −$78.8M | −$106M | −$283M | −$452M |
| Free cash flow | −$34.3M | −$54.0M | −$92.5M | −$124M | −$300M | −$484M |
| Balance sheet | ||||||
| Cash and short-term investments | $522M | $356M | $355M | $340M | $2.39B | $2.12B |
| Returns and shares | ||||||
| Shares (diluted) | 138M | 198M | 203M | 213M | 280M | 368M |
What growth costs
Each extra dollar of sales has mostly cost less to win, but research, office costs and stock pay are each still bigger than sales, so the losses keep growing in dollars. Much of the growth was bought, and making what it sells now costs more of each sales dollar, so it is too early to say growth makes IonQ more profitable.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
- Cost of revenue before depreciation rose from 47.8% of revenue in 2024 to 59.6% in 2025 and 75.1% in Q2 2026 (C06), and depreciation and amortisation from $18.7M to $82.0M, so the gross line narrowed as the operating lines widened.
- Much of the revenue was bought (C04, C05), so the falling ratios mix acquired sales with organic leverage, and no organic dollar figure is published.
The vendor reports a trailing gross margin of 36.3%, a different definition: the filing carries cost of revenue with and without stock pay and the vendor's line matches neither quarter exactly (S16).
- The company defines organic itself and publishes no dollar figure, so the 132% cannot be reconciled to any filed line (S02).
- Q2 2025's two largest customers were 65% of that quarter's revenue, so a small base flatters the rate (S02).
The last report (5 Aug)
Quarter ended June 2026, filed figures.
In the June quarter IonQ sold $80.05M, up from $20.69M a year earlier. Leaving out companies bought since 2025, growth was 132%, management says. It lost $337.2M from operations, with stock pay of $141.8M.
It raised its 2026 forecast for IonQ alone to $280M to $290M, and to $450M to $460M with the chip factory. Signed orders reached $485M.
What it did to the thesisIt confirmed the lead in sales and the strong demand from research buyers, and raised the forecast again. It did nothing for the two weak points: the growth still leans on purchases paid in shares, and the margin left after stock pay stayed thin.
The quarter in detail
Sales growth from the previous quarter, filed figures.
Earnings per share $-0.33 against $-0.29 expected; $-5.08 as filed, the gap being what the company adds back.
The evidence under this - 6 claims
- The company defines organic itself and publishes no dollar figure, so the 132% cannot be reconciled to any filed line (S02).
- Q2 2025's two largest customers were 65% of that quarter's revenue, so a small base flatters the rate (S02).
The vendor reports a trailing gross margin of 36.3%, a different definition: the filing carries cost of revenue with and without stock pay and the vendor's line matches neither quarter exactly (S16).
Revenue beat the midpoint of guidance by 20% in both of the last two reports, so the guide has been conservative (S03, S05).
The 10-Q says the backlog includes unfunded orders whose money has not been appropriated, and it excludes the Anduril and Sandia memoranda (S02, S04).
What management did with the money
Management raised billions selling shares and spent much of it, and more new shares, buying companies, ending with a $1.8B chip factory. Stock pay in the first half of this year was larger than sales. In October it sold $2.0B more, 12% more shares at once. Warrants from the share sales can be used far above today's price.
Insiders in 2026Q3: 2 purchases and 1 sales, from their Form 4 filings.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
The price, and where we disagree
In short. Priced for perfection. The price treats IonQ as the winner of a race nobody has won, at margins no quantum seller has shown.
The chip factory joined at the end of July, so the November report is the first to include it, with a forecast to keep. The 256-qubit chips are back from the factory and in testing, with customer machines promised for early 2027.
The share price has already fallen by almost half from last October's high, and fell sharply when Quantinuum listed. The next six to nine months test the technical promise directly.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
Revenue beat the midpoint of guidance by 20% in both of the last two reports, so the guide has been conservative (S03, S05).
- No independent test of the 256-qubit chip exists; DARPA's Stage B reviews plans, not machines (S11).
- Quantinuum reports 99.921% on a commercial system, so the fidelity lead is narrow (S08).
How we read the multiple
The whole company costs about 44 times its sales over the last year. Without the cash and the chip factory, about $9.0B rests on a quantum business expected to sell $280M to $290M this year.
That needs:
- Years of fast growth, beyond what research budgets alone pay for.
- Margins far above the quarter of each sales dollar kept today.
- Its design winning a race eleven designs still run.
- Cash lasting while it burns close to $500M a year.
Against its own history. Buyers now pay much less for each dollar of sales than a year ago, because sales rose while the price fell; that cooled excitement, not made it cheap.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
- 2026-10-22editedre-struck at the 2026-10-21 close of $32.28 (from $43.77) on the daily review's maintenance route -- drift -26.3%, past the 12% trigger -- on about 458.9M shares after the offering and about $4.0B of cash
- Revenue has beaten guidance by 20% twice, so the 2026 base may be low (S03, S05).
- SkyWater could be worth more than the price paid if its quantum foundry work grows; IonQ calls it the only quantum foundry operating (S04).
- 2026-10-22editedre-struck at the 2026-10-21 close of $32.28 (from $43.77) on the daily review's maintenance route -- drift -26.3%, past the 12% trigger -- on about 458.9M shares after the offering and about $4.0B of cash
The vendor reports a trailing gross margin of 36.3%, a different definition: the filing carries cost of revenue with and without stock pay and the vendor's line matches neither quarter exactly (S16).
Priced against its rivals
The competitors its own annual report names, each confirmed against the rival's filing. Measured on company value for each $1 of sales, cheapest first:
| Ticker | Company | company value for each $1 of sales |
|---|---|---|
| IONQ | IonQ | 61.5× |
| INFQ | Infleqtion | 127.8× |
| RGTI | Rigetti Computing | 378.1× |
| QBTS | D-Wave Quantum | 443.3× |
| QNT | Quantinuum | 759.8× |
| IBM | International Business Machines not in the median | 3.9× |
| GOOGL | Alphabet not in the median | 9.4× |
The middle of the other 4 is 410.7. International Business Machines Corporation, Alphabet Inc. compete with it in one product line inside a much bigger company, so their price says little about this business and they are not counted in the middle. IonQ, Inc. is cheapest of 5.
Rivals' figures come from a data provider, so read the spread of the group rather than any single pair.
IonQ is one of the lower-priced names in its group only because the whole group is priced on hope; the high pricing is the group's, not IonQ's alone.
Private or foreign rivals that cannot be priced: PsiQuantum, QuEra Computing, Alpine Quantum Technologies GmbH.
The bet: what it pays if it works
Think of this as a bet on quantum computers becoming a real business. If IonQ's quantum sales keep growing very fast and it ends up valued like a large, steady company, the best case we can defend is worth only a little more than today's price. It needs dozens of customers the size of its biggest Swiss buyer.
If quantum stays a research purchase, what is left is the chip factory and the cash, a small part of today's value.
| Quantum platform revenue in two to three years | QuantumBasel-sized customers needed | At the stated multiple |
|---|---|---|
| $290.00M | about 19 at 100% kept | 0.7× |
| $1.00B (the big win) | about 67 at 100% kept | 1.9× |
| $1.50B | about 100 at 100% kept | 2.8× |
To pay 2× (a Fair bet) it would need about $1.04B of Quantum platform revenue (about 69 QuantumBasel-sized customers); to pay 5× (a Cheap bet), about $2.70B of Quantum platform revenue (about 180 QuantumBasel-sized customers), at the same multiple.
Each row is Quantum platform alone, plus the rest of the company (SkyWater foundry) counted at about $1.53B.
The steps it has to take
- Done Two-qubit fidelity of 99.99% reported
- Done SkyWater foundry acquired
- In progress Organic revenue up about 100% in 2026 due 2027-02-28
- Done DARPA Stage C selection
- In progress 256-qubit system commissioned for a customer due 2027-06-30
- Not started 10,000-qubit chip demonstrated due 2027-12-31
- Not started Four quarters with diluted shares up less than 5% due 2027-09-30
The detail behind the label
The evidence under this - 6 claims
- The company defines organic itself and publishes no dollar figure, so the 132% cannot be reconciled to any filed line (S02).
- Q2 2025's two largest customers were 65% of that quarter's revenue, so a small base flatters the rate (S02).
The 10-Q says the backlog includes unfunded orders whose money has not been appropriated, and it excludes the Anduril and Sandia memoranda (S02, S04).
- 2026-10-22editedfolded in the October equity sale (424B5 of 2026-10-14, closed per the 8-K of 2026-10-16) that the 14 October news review priced but left for the closing to absorb
Where we disagree with the market
IonQ is the quantum leader, and its sales, cash and chip factory make it the safest way to own the theme.
IonQ leads on sales and cash, but much was bought with shares, the defence agency has not said who else is in its final stage, and margins are thin.
Most analysts rate it positively, and the chief executive says IonQ is about half of all quantum sales. We agree it leads. But rivals' own filings show the technical lead is narrow, the defence research agency backed eleven designs until this week, and IonQ's own release does not say how many others joined it in the final stage, and each share now owns a smaller piece because the share count rose by almost half in a year.
What analysts say, and the evidence
The evidence under this - 8 claims
No one publishes sector revenue; against listed rivals the share is higher, but IBM, Google and private firms report no quantum revenue (S09, S10).
- 2026-10-08editedIonQ announced it advanced to Stage C; the claim now notes that, without DARPA's list of who else did
The vendor reports a trailing gross margin of 36.3%, a different definition: the filing carries cost of revenue with and without stock pay and the vendor's line matches neither quarter exactly (S16).
- 2026-10-22editedfolded in the October equity sale (424B5 of 2026-10-14, closed per the 8-K of 2026-10-16) that the 14 October news review priced but left for the closing to absorb
- The $300M is a potential value, not an amount obligated; the release gives no figure for the initial obligation (S21).
- DARPA's own announcement and the list of other Stage C companies were not found, so how many rivals advanced alongside is unknown (S11).
What could go wrong, and how we would know
The risks
- Quantinuum catches up. It uses the same atoms, publishes better accuracy and now has its own listing cash to spend on the race.
- More new shares. Purchases and stock pay keep adding shares, so each holder owns less even when the business grows.
- Few big buyers. Two customers were a third of last quarter's sales, so one delayed order moves a whole quarter.
- The chip timetable slips. The 256-qubit machine is promised for early 2027; a delay would hit the main reason to own it.
- It becomes a factory. From 2027 the low-margin chip factory is likely more than half of sales, changing what the company is.
The evidence under this - 7 claims
- 2026-10-22editedfolded in the October equity sale (424B5 of 2026-10-14, closed per the 8-K of 2026-10-16) that the 14 October news review priced but left for the closing to absorb
- No independent test of the 256-qubit chip exists; DARPA's Stage B reviews plans, not machines (S11).
- Quantinuum reports 99.921% on a commercial system, so the fidelity lead is narrow (S08).
IonQ's own revenue is growing near 100% a year while SkyWater's legacy business is not, so the mix shifts back over several years (S04, S07).
What we still do not know
- How much of sales comes from IonQ's own machines rather than bought companies; management gives a growth rate but no dollar figure.
- How much of the signed orders customers have actually funded.
- Whether the trapped-atom design really needs far fewer qubits to correct errors than rival designs, as IonQ claims.
- Whether rival quantum companies will keep using a chip factory their competitor now owns.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
- The company defines organic itself and publishes no dollar figure, so the 132% cannot be reconciled to any filed line (S02).
- Q2 2025's two largest customers were 65% of that quarter's revenue, so a small base flatters the rate (S02).
The 10-Q says the backlog includes unfunded orders whose money has not been appropriated, and it excludes the Anduril and Sandia memoranda (S02, S04).
These overhead ratios are IonQ's own and are disputed by every rival design's proponents; DARPA says no architecture is dominant (S11).
Rivals building on a competitor's foundry is a choice they may decline; IonQ's own customers include companies it competes with (S04, S01).
What would change our view
- Unattractive→NeutralThe 256-qubit system works and the price has not run ahead of it
It needs all of:
- ○A 256-qubit Superion machine is up and running for a paying customer.watched as it happens
- ○The company is valued at about 12 times its yearly sales, because sales arrived or the price fell.about ≈$8.53 today, 74% below the last close
- Unattractive→NeutralThe dilution stops while growth holds
It needs all of:
- ○The diluted share count rises less than 5% over four quarters.checked at the next results, due by 4 Nov
- ○Sales leaving out companies bought since 2025 grow at least 60% in 2027, on IonQ's own measure.checked at the next results, due by 4 Nov
We would also be wrong if
- The defence research agency moves IonQ to its final stage (it has, per IonQ's 7 October release) and drops most rival designs (not shown: no list has been published).
What is coming
- 4 November 2026 Q3 2026 results, the first quarter with SkyWater: Whether the $450M to $460M combined guide holds, organic growth stays near 100%, and SkyWater's revenue share appears for the first time.
Every dated event ahead
- 4 November 2026 Q3 2026 results, the first quarter with SkyWater: Whether the $450M to $460M combined guide holds, organic growth stays near 100%, and SkyWater's revenue share appears for the first time.
- February 2027 Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results and the 2026 10-K: Whether the year lands in the combined guide, what cash remains after the SkyWater payment, and the first full-year revenue split including the foundry.
- February 2027 Chief executive's $20M make-whole RSUs vest: Whether de Masi keeps or sells his first large block of shares; a sale outside a 10b5-1 plan would weigh against alignment.
- June 2027 First 256-qubit systems commissioned: Whether the 256-qubit chips from SkyWater become working systems on the stated timetable, the technical milestone the valuation leans on.
Since we wrote this
- 28 OctBet moveBet re-struck: Speculation to Priced for successRe-priced at the 27 October close; the rating moved from Fair bet to Expensive bet.
- 27 OctNewsIonQ wins a $7.5 million follow-on Air Force Research Lab quantum networking award. View heldIonQ awarded $7.5M follow-on AFRL funding for quantum networking.
- 23 OctBet moveBet re-struck: Priced for success to SpeculationRe-priced at the 22 October close; the rating moved from Expensive bet to Fair bet.
- 22 OctNewsThe $2.0B share sale closed; price down 26%Cash doubles to about $4.0B and shares rise another 12% at once. The quantum business is valued at about 32 times sales rather than 49; the view held.
- 22 OctBet moveBet re-struck: Speculation to Priced for successRe-priced at the 21 October close; the rating moved from Fair bet to Expensive bet.
- 19 OctBet moveBet re-struck: Priced for success to SpeculationRe-priced at the 16 October close; the rating moved from Expensive bet to Fair bet.
- 16 OctBet moveBet re-struck: Speculation to Priced for successRe-priced at the 15 October close; the rating moved from Fair bet to Expensive bet.
- 15 OctBet moveBet re-struck: Priced for success to SpeculationRe-priced at the 14 October close; the rating moved from Expensive bet to Fair bet.
- 14 OctNewsIonQ raised about $2.0B of new equity, with warrants for 100M more shares. View heldIonQ priced a $2.0 billion sale of shares and warrants.
- 13 OctNewsIonQ's Elisity deal adds roughly 6 to 10 percent more shares once it closes. View heldIonQ agreed to acquire Elisity in an all-stock deal worth up to $1.3 billion.
- 8 OctNewsIonQ entered DARPA's final stage; the view heldA criterion we wrote down fired, but it was a vote on the plan with funding still to be appropriated; price and dilution, which drive the view, did not move.
- 5 OctThesis reviewThe bet now names what it ridesThe owner asked that every bet name the macro trend behind it, after BWXT's bet was missing its chief executive's case for nuclear over gas.
- 4 OctThesis writtenUnattractive, medium convictionThe revenue leader in a young field, but much of its growth was bought with shares and the price already assumes the technology wins.
- 4 OctThesis reviewOwner's checklist: revenue streams, cost of growth, management, catalystsThe owner's checklist found the method silent on who runs the company, what growth costs, where the money comes from and what is dated ahead; this pass fills those four blocks from the proxy and filings.
Also checked 2 times with nothing new to act on.
Sources 23
Sources - 23
Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.
- S01primarycompany filing2026-02-25business description, competition section naming rivals by design, acquisitions and stock paid, warrants, customer concentration, error-correction claims, 1,132 employeesbacksC01C03C05C08C16C21C24C35C39C49C51C52
- S02primarycompany filing2026-08-10income statement, cost of revenue with and without stock pay, balance sheet, cash flows, warrants, revenue by product and location, RPO, customer concentration, strategic-investment revenue, SkyWater subsequent event, share countbacksC01C02C05C06C07C08C09C10C14C15C16C17C18C35C37C38C40C49C52
- S03primarycompany release2026-08-05raised IonQ-only guide, organic growth target, adjusted EBITDA and the SkyWater spend inside it, memoranda with Anduril and Sandia
For the full year 2026, IonQ is raising its revenue expectations to between $280 million and $290 million.
backsC02C04C07C09C12C23C26 - S04primarytranscript2026-08-05organic growth of 132%, 256-qubit chip status and 2027 timetable, SkyWater intercompany spend, MOUs outside backlog, the 'half of sector revenue' claim, merchant-supplier claim
our Q2 organic revenues grew 132% year-over-year
backsC04C13C14C23C24C26C31C40C42 - S05primarycompany release2026-02-252025 revenue against guidance, QuantumBasel expansion, February 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance
Expanded Agreement with QuantumBasel to Over $60 Million, Spanning Four Years and Four Generations of IonQ Systems
backsC03C12C27C41 - S06primarycompany release2026-09-082026 revenue guidance of $450M to $460M including SkyWater from July 31, net of intercompany revenue
for the full year 2026, it expects revenue to be between $450 million and $460 million
backsC10C12 - S07primarycompany filing2026-08-07SkyWater's revenue, gross profit and net loss for Q2 and H1 2026, revenue by type, the Fab 25 purchase from InfineonbacksC11
- S08primarycompany filing2026-08-13trapped-ion QCCD architecture, Helios fidelity, Q2 and H1 2026 revenue, IPO proceeds of about $1,628.8M netbacksC21C22C36
- S09primarycompany filing2026-03-042025 revenue of $7.1M and the 90.2% government sharebacksC21
- S10primarycompany filing2026-02-262025 revenue of $24.6M; annealing systems sold on-premises and through the Leap cloudbacksC21
- S11primarygovernment data2025-11-06the 11 Stage B companies and their qubit approaches; no dominant architecture; utility-scale test by 2033
Unlike classical computing, no single dominant architecture exists.
backsC20 - S12primarygovernment data2024-12-01federal quantum information science research spending by year, FY2019 to FY2025
Agencies reported budget expenditures for QIS R&D of $456 million in FY 2019, $690 million in FY 2020, $851 million in FY 2021, $1,041 million in FY 2022, and $1,036 million in FY 2023
backsC28 - S13primarygovernment data2026-06-25the QC-ADDS effort to deliver a quantum computer to a DOE facility; possible advance market commitments
with the intent to deliver at least one such computer to a Department of Energy facility
backsC29 - S14primarygovernment data2026-06-25post-quantum cryptography deadlines for federal systems; no mention of quantum key distribution
transition all HVAs and high impact systems to use PQC for key establishment by December 31, 2030
backsC30 - S15primaryother2026-09-24Florida International University release, Miami's first quantum computer coming to FIU (PR Newswire) FIUthe buyer's own account of the Superion 256 order and its late-2027 delivery; no price
FIU has signed an agreement with IonQ (NYSE: IONQ ), the world's leading full-stack quantum platform and foundry, to install the company's new Superion 256 quantum computer on campus.
backsC25 - S16secondaryvendor data2026-10-04Research pack, frozen 2026-10-04 (FMP market tier, FINRA short interest, filed XBRL statements)content/IONQ/research-pack.jsonprice, market and company value, multiples, the filed cohort, analyst series and estimates, short interest, price-move decomposition, daily closesbacksC17C18C32C33C35C36
- S17primarycompany filing2026-10-04open-market purchases and sales with the Rule 10b5-1 flag for the past yearbacksC34
- S18primarycompany filing2026-03-11the foundry's named competitorsbacksC44
- S19primarycompany filing2026-04-30beneficial ownership as of March 31, 2026, executive officers and tenure, the 2025 bonus and PSU metrics and their mid-year changes, the summary compensation table, the aircraft lease with the chief executive's companybacksC45C46C47C48
- S20primarycompany filing2026-10-04IonQ numbers card: filed XBRL statements FY2020 to the four quarters to June 2026 (content/IONQ/financials.json)content/IONQ/financials.jsonrevenue, research and development, sales and marketing, general and administrative, stock pay, operating income and diluted shares by yearbacksC49C51
- S21primarycompany release2026-10-07a Stage C agreement with DARPA of up to $300M, funding beyond the initial obligation subject to appropriations, running through 2029; IonQ says it is among the first companies selected
IonQ and DARPA have signed a Stage C agreement with a potential value of up to $300 million
backsC53 - S22primarycompany filing2026-10-1420.5M shares and 29.5M pre-funded warrants at a combined $40.00 with 100M Series C warrants at $69.46 for seven years; net proceeds of about $1,988.5M; 408,907,678 shares outstanding on 13 OctoberbacksC09C17C18
- S23primarycompany filing2026-10-16the underwriting agreement of 14 October, the warrant terms and that the offering closed on 16 October 2026backsC09C17