← All thesesUTINeutralMedium convictionSaturday 10 October 2026עברית

Universal Technical Institute

A chain of about 35 trade schools that turns school leavers into car mechanics, welders, dental assistants and nurses in about a year, mostly paid for with federal student loans.

Our viewNeutral Medium conviction
The scores
The profile · 1-4
Growth3/4 ↓

Revenue up 14% in fiscal 2025 and 7% now on more students, but about as fast as certificate enrolment nationally, and Concorde was bought.

Business quality2/4 →

Recruiting reach holds a price far above public colleges, but federal aid carries that price, no share is gained and public rivals add places.

Financial position3/4 ↓

About $10M net cash and a revolver to 2031, but cash flow no longer covers capital spending and the gap is borrowed.

Execution record2/4 ↓

Beat fiscal 2024 and 2025 guidance, but cut fiscal 2026 guidance unflagged, weeks after insiders sold.

Per share capture3/4 →

Share count flat since the preferred converted in 2023 and stock pay about 1.4% of revenue; no buybacks, and lenders fund the build.

Potential2/4 →

The 2029 target is expected, not committed: it needs starts to recover, new campuses to fill and federal rules to hold.

Risk profile3/4 ↓

One dependency, federal student aid at 78% of cash revenue, under one regulator; the new earnings test bites from 2028.

Valuation3/4 ↑

At about 11 times this year's reported profit the price pays for about half of management's 2029 plan, not all of it.

Evidence quality3/4 →

Filings, Clearinghouse counts and BLS are solid; the miss's cause and the 2029 plan rest on management's words.

The Verdict

We rate Universal Technical Institute neutral. It trains mechanics, welders and healthcare workers, and federal student aid pays most of its tuition. The business is mixed: students keep coming, but public colleges teach similar courses for a fraction of the price, and in August it missed its high-school recruiting goal and cut this year's profit forecast. After a 60% fall, the price is fair: about 11 times this year's cash profit, which counts on only about half of management's plan to 2029, so the rest is extra. The view hinges on November's forecast for next year showing the miss was one quarter's problem.

The long caseMore young people are choosing quick trade and healthcare training over college; UTI gains only if it keeps winning them at eight times the public price.

The evidence under this - 7 claims
C01facthigh confidence
UTI reports two segments. In fiscal 2025 revenue of $835.6M split the UTI division $542M, with operating income of $94M, and Concorde $294M, with $36M.
historical · FY2025written 2026-10-10
C02facthigh confidence
About 78% of fiscal 2025 cash revenue came from federal student aid and veterans' programs; the 90/10 ratio was about 81% at UTI's institutions and 76% at Concorde's, against a 90% limit.
against this

The company's own footnote warns individual institutions' ratios vary from the averages, so one campus group may sit nearer 90% than the mean shows.

current state · 2025-09-30written 2026-10-10
C08facthigh confidence
On 2026-08-05 UTI cut fiscal 2026 guidance: revenue to $893M-$900M from $905M-$915M, reported adjusted EBITDA to $100M-$103M from $114M-$119M, adjusted free cash flow to minus $20M to zero from $20M-$25M.
historical · 2025-11-19 to 2026-08-05written 2026-10-10
C14estimatehigh confidence
At $20.64 enterprise value is about $1.13B: 11.1 times the $101.5M fiscal 2026 reported adjusted EBITDA midpoint and 11.7 times the trailing $96.3M; the vendor's six-year prior median EV/EBITDA is 6.8.
against this
  • Operating leases on most campuses are left out; the vendor, counting them, puts enterprise value near $1.37B and the multiple at 13.1.
  • Reported adjusted EBITDA is after about $35M of growth spending this year; on management's baseline the multiple is far lower (C15).
current state · 2026-10-09written 2026-10-10
C16estimatemedium confidence
At the vendor's six-year median of about 7 times, today's enterprise value needs about $161M of reported adjusted EBITDA: about half the way from fiscal 2026's $101.5M to the fiscal 2029 target of $220M.
against this
  • The six-year median includes fiscal 2020-2022, when UTI had about $300M-$420M of revenue and thin profit, so a normal multiple for today's company may be higher.
  • Peers trade near 12.5 times in the filed cohort, which would make the same price pay for less.
current state · 2026-10-09written 2026-10-10
C22facthigh confidence
Average published tuition and fees at a public two-year college were $4,150 in 2025-26, against up to $69,000 for UTI's auto and diesel program.
against this

Published tuition is an average across all programs; technical programs often charge fees on top, and a UTI program finishes in about a year where an associate degree takes two.

current state · 2025-10-28written 2026-10-10
C10management claimmedium confidence
Management says about 70% of the $20M cut to baseline EBITDA was a shortfall in high-school auto and diesel starts, from too few field recruiters, and about 30% a shift to shorter, cheaper skilled-trades programs.
against this
  • Lincoln Tech's start growth slowed to 1% in the same summer as fewer enrolled students turned up, a conversion problem at a peer that recruiter numbers at UTI do not explain.
  • UTI division leads were up over 15% and still did not convert, which fits weaker intent as well as too few recruiters.
current state · 2026-08-05written 2026-10-10
01

The company

UTI sells a fast route into a skilled job. A school leaver or veteran spends about a year in a campus workshop learning to fix cars and trucks, weld, or install heating systems; Concorde does the same for dental assistants, medical assistants and nurses, with time in real clinics.

Auto and diesel is 63% of the UTI division's sales. A student could go to a community college instead, which charges about $4,150 a year but takes longer, or learn on the job.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C01facthigh confidence
UTI reports two segments. In fiscal 2025 revenue of $835.6M split the UTI division $542M, with operating income of $94M, and Concorde $294M, with $36M.
historical · FY2025written 2026-10-10
C04facthigh confidence
UTI division tuition ran from about $18,000 to $69,000 a program in fiscal 2025, about $35,100 of revenue per student; Concorde's ran from $1,000 to $99,000, about $30,000 per student.
historical · FY2025written 2026-10-10
C05facthigh confidence
Auto and diesel was 63% of the UTI division's fiscal 2025 revenue and welding 10%; at Concorde, dental was 26%, medical assisting 22% and nursing 16%.
historical · FY2025written 2026-10-10
C22facthigh confidence
Average published tuition and fees at a public two-year college were $4,150 in 2025-26, against up to $69,000 for UTI's auto and diesel program.
against this

Published tuition is an average across all programs; technical programs often charge fees on top, and a UTI program finishes in about a year where an associate degree takes two.

current state · 2025-10-28written 2026-10-10
C27factmedium confidence
UTI reports graduation of about 74% and employment of about 79% for its division, and about 73% and 82% for Concorde, both on the accreditor's basis.
against this

The accreditor's employment rate excludes graduates unavailable for work, and the company's own footnote says individual programs vary widely from the averages.

current state · 2025-09-30written 2026-10-10

How it makes money

Tuition is almost all of it: about $35,100 a year per UTI student and about $30,000 at Concorde. Federal loans, grants and veterans' benefits pay about 78% of what it collects, so the government is the real payer. Each new student pays over a year or two, which makes this year's sign-ups next year's sales.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C02facthigh confidence
About 78% of fiscal 2025 cash revenue came from federal student aid and veterans' programs; the 90/10 ratio was about 81% at UTI's institutions and 76% at Concorde's, against a 90% limit.
against this

The company's own footnote warns individual institutions' ratios vary from the averages, so one campus group may sit nearer 90% than the mean shows.

current state · 2025-09-30written 2026-10-10
C04facthigh confidence
UTI division tuition ran from about $18,000 to $69,000 a program in fiscal 2025, about $35,100 of revenue per student; Concorde's ran from $1,000 to $99,000, about $30,000 per student.
historical · FY2025written 2026-10-10
C01facthigh confidence
UTI reports two segments. In fiscal 2025 revenue of $835.6M split the UTI division $542M, with operating income of $94M, and Concorde $294M, with $36M.
historical · FY2025written 2026-10-10
Where the money comes from, stream by stream
StreamShare of sales (FY2025)How it earns it
Auto and diesel technician programs40.9%Campus programs of about a year training car, truck and diesel mechanics, the UTI division's core.
Other transportation, welding and skilled trades19.6%Motorcycle, marine, collision, aviation, welding, HVAC, wind, electrical and robotics programs, mostly shorter and cheaper.
Industry training for employers3.9%Manufacturer-specific training and instructor services sold to carmakers and other employers.
Dental programs9.1%Concorde's dental assistant and dental hygiene programs, the hygiene program its most expensive.
Medical assisting7.7%Short Concorde programs training medical assistants for clinics and physicians' offices.
Other allied health, diagnostics and nursing18.5%Respiratory, surgical, sonography, practical and registered nursing and related Concorde programs.

Who runs it

Jerome Grant has run UTI since November 2019 and roughly tripled its sales, partly by buying Concorde. He sold 94,500 shares in June, weeks before the forecast cut; the chairman bought after the fall. The directors' biggest holder, Coliseum Capital, has sold most of its stake. Most long-term pay rides on sales and cash profit, none on cash left over or profit per share.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C35facthigh confidence
Jerome Grant has been chief executive since November 2019 and Bruce Schuman chief financial officer since late 2024; Concorde was bought on 2022-12-01.
current state · 2026-01-20written 2026-10-10
C28facthigh confidence
Directors and officers owned 9.8% in January 2026, 7.2% of it Coliseum's; the chief executive held 343,904 shares. Performance stock pays 60% on revenue and 40% on adjusted EBITDA.
current state · 2026-01-20written 2026-10-10
C11facthigh confidence
All 14 insider sales in 2026 were discretionary: Coliseum Capital, a director's fund, sold 3,000,000 shares at $41.40 on 2026-06-08 and the chief executive 94,500 at about $41.15-$41.63 on 2026-06-29; the chairman bought 13,000 shares at $19.68-$28.21 after the fall.
historical · 2026-02 to 2026-09written 2026-10-10
02

Why it wins, and who could beat it

Why customers come back

UTI's edge is reach. A national team of recruiters, school visits and online marketing brings in about 30,000 new students a year, and ties with carmakers let it promise a route to a job. That lets it charge $35,100 a year against a public college's $4,150 and still grow.

The weakness is that certificate courses everywhere are growing about as fast as UTI, so it is riding a wave rather than taking students from rivals.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C04facthigh confidence
UTI division tuition ran from about $18,000 to $69,000 a program in fiscal 2025, about $35,100 of revenue per student; Concorde's ran from $1,000 to $99,000, about $30,000 per student.
historical · FY2025written 2026-10-10
C22facthigh confidence
Average published tuition and fees at a public two-year college were $4,150 in 2025-26, against up to $69,000 for UTI's auto and diesel program.
against this

Published tuition is an average across all programs; technical programs often charge fees on top, and a UTI program finishes in about a year where an associate degree takes two.

current state · 2025-10-28written 2026-10-10
C03facthigh confidence
Fiscal 2025 new starts were 29,793, up 10.8%, average full-time students 24,618, up 10.5%, and revenue $835.6M, up 14.0%.
historical · FY2025written 2026-10-10
C25facthigh confidence
Undergraduate certificate enrolment grew 10.2% in spring 2026, the fastest of any level; community-college certificate enrolment reached 752,000 in fall 2025, up 28.3% since fall 2021.
against this

Community-college freshmen grew only 0.5% in fall 2025 after three strong years, the first sign the inflow is slowing.

current state · 2026-06-04written 2026-10-10

The threat

Public colleges are the real rival. Texas State Technical College opened a $35M state-funded centre near Houston in December 2025 to train 400 to 500 more students in the same trades. Lincoln Tech is opening campuses in UTI's markets, and listed nursing schools compete with Concorde.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C22facthigh confidence
Average published tuition and fees at a public two-year college were $4,150 in 2025-26, against up to $69,000 for UTI's auto and diesel program.
against this

Published tuition is an average across all programs; technical programs often charge fees on top, and a UTI program finishes in about a year where an associate degree takes two.

current state · 2025-10-28written 2026-10-10
C23facthigh confidence
Texas State Technical College opened a more than $35M state-funded transportation technology center near Houston in December 2025, expected to add 400 to 500 students, a 71% rise.
historical · 2025-12written 2026-10-10
C21facthigh confidence
UTI's 10-K names six listed for-profit rivals and says community colleges, as a sector, compete in every market; Lincoln Tech opened a Houston campus in August 2025 and leased one in Rowlett, Texas.
current state · 2026-03-04written 2026-10-10
C38facthigh confidence
Legacy Education runs campus healthcare career schools, and American Public Education's Rasmussen and Hondros nursing schools, about $246M of Rasmussen revenue alone in 2025, sell practical and associate nursing programs like Concorde's.
current state · 2026-09-15written 2026-10-10

The rivals: LINC, LGCY, APEI, and 2 more that are private, in-house or listed abroad.

Who else does this, rival by rival
TickerRivalWhere it competesHow far alongPriced against it
Not listedCommunity colleges and state technical colleges, such as Texas State Technical CollegePriced against it: Not listedUTI division (transportation, energy and skilled trades)On saleNot listed
LINCLincoln Educational Services (Lincoln Tech)Priced against it: YesUTI division (transportation, energy and skilled trades)On saleYes
LGCY · APEILegacy Education and American Public Education's nursing schools, with community colleges' health programsPriced against it: YesConcorde (healthcare)On saleYes
In-houseDealer and employer apprenticeships and in-house trainingPriced against it: In-houseUTI division (transportation, energy and skilled trades)On saleIn-house
03

How big it could get

How big this could get

Community colleges alone had 752,000 students on certificate courses in fall 2025, up 28% since 2021. At public tuition that is about $3.1B a year. UTI has about 3% of that number of students but earns about a quarter of that money, because it charges far more per student.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C25facthigh confidence
Undergraduate certificate enrolment grew 10.2% in spring 2026, the fastest of any level; community-college certificate enrolment reached 752,000 in fall 2025, up 28.3% since fall 2021.
against this

Community-college freshmen grew only 0.5% in fall 2025 after three strong years, the first sign the inflow is slowing.

current state · 2026-06-04written 2026-10-10
C22facthigh confidence
Average published tuition and fees at a public two-year college were $4,150 in 2025-26, against up to $69,000 for UTI's auto and diesel program.
against this

Published tuition is an average across all programs; technical programs often charge fees on top, and a UTI program finishes in about a year where an associate degree takes two.

current state · 2025-10-28written 2026-10-10
C03facthigh confidence
Fiscal 2025 new starts were 29,793, up 10.8%, average full-time students 24,618, up 10.5%, and revenue $835.6M, up 14.0%.
historical · FY2025written 2026-10-10
04

The results

The numbers

Is it growing?Steady

Sales grew 9.1% over the twelve months to Jun 2026, about the same pace as the 14% in the year to Sep 2025.

Sep 2021: $335MSep 2022: $419MSep 2023: $607MSep 2024: $733MSep 2025: $836M12 mo to Jun 2026: $884M$335M$884M
Is it profitable?Thin

Operating margin is 5.0%, about where it was (3.5%) in the year to Sep 2023.

Sep 2021: 4.5%Sep 2022: 5.3%Sep 2023: 3.5%Sep 2024: 8.0%Sep 2025: 10.0%12 mo to Jun 2026: 5.0%4.5%5.0%
How steady is it?Uneven

Yearly sales growth has ranged from +11% to +45% over the last 5 years.

Sep 2021: +11%Sep 2022: +25%Sep 2023: +45%Sep 2024: +21%Sep 2025: +14%+11%+14%
Does it earn good returns?Low

Each dollar put into the business earns 7.6% a year after tax, about where it was (7.2%) in the year to Sep 2021.

Sep 2021: 7.2%Sep 2022: 8.9%Sep 2023: 4.3%Sep 2024: 11%Sep 2025: 16%12 mo to Jun 2026: 7.6%7.2%7.6%
How long can it keep going?Long runway

It used $22.9M of cash over the last twelve months, so the $170M it holds lasts about 7.4 years at that pace.

Sep 2021: −$6.12MSep 2022: −$33.4MSep 2023: −$7.54MSep 2024: $61.6MSep 2025: $55.4M12 mo to Jun 2026: −$22.9M−$6.12M−$22.9M
Is the balance sheet safe?Net cash

It holds $170M of cash against $160M of debt, $10.1M more cash than it owes.

Sep 2021: $103MSep 2022: −$1.09MSep 2023: −$10.6MSep 2024: $36.2MSep 2025: $82.0M12 mo to Jun 2026: $10.1M$103M$10.1M
Are shares being diluted?Diluting

The share count rose 69% in 4.8 years, and pay in shares costs 1.4% of sales.

Sep 2021: 33.1MSep 2022: 33.7MSep 2023: 34.5MSep 2024: 50.9MSep 2025: 55.6M12 mo to Jun 2026: 55.9M33.1M55.9M
All the numbers

Filed figures from the company's 10-K and 10-Q, read 2026-10-10. Fiscal years end in September.

Sep 2021Sep 2022Sep 2023Sep 2024Sep 202512 mo to Jun 2026
Size and growth
Sales$335M$419M$607M$733M$836M$884M
Sales growth+11%+25%+45%+21%+14%+9.1%
Profit
Operating margin4.5%5.3%3.5%8.0%10.0%5.0%
Net margin4.4%6.2%2.0%5.7%7.5%3.9%
What growth costs, per sales dollar
Selling, general and admin46%45%42%39%40%43%
Pay in shares0.5%1.0%0.6%1.2%1.1%1.4%
Capital spending18%19%9.3%3.3%5.0%11%
Cash
Cash from operations$55.2M$46.0M$49.1M$85.9M$97.3M$74.5M
Free cash flow−$6.12M−$33.4M−$7.54M$61.6M$55.4M−$22.9M
Balance sheet
Cash and short-term investments$134M$66.5M$152M$162M$169M$170M
Debt$30.7M$67.5M$162M$126M$87.1M$160M
Net cash$103M−$1.09M−$10.6M$36.2M$82.0M$10.1M
Returns and shares
Return on capital7.2%8.9%4.3%11%16%7.6%
Shares (diluted)33.1M33.7M34.5M50.9M55.6M55.9M

What growth costs

Until 2025 growth made UTI more profitable, because overheads grew slower than sales. This year that reversed: new campuses and courses cost money before they fill, and the plan keeps building at that pace, so margins are lower until those campuses mature.

The evidence under this - 2 claims
C33facthigh confidence
Operating margin was 4.5% in fiscal 2021, 8.0% in fiscal 2024, 10.0% in fiscal 2025 and 5.0% in the twelve months to June 2026; SG&A fell from 45.8% to 39.7% of revenue from 2021 to 2025.
historical · FY2021 to TTM June 2026written 2026-10-10
C32management claimmedium confidence
Fiscal 2026 capital spending is guided at about $110M, with about $35M of growth spending in costs, and management expects $100M or more of capital spending a year.
against this

Fiscal 2025 capital spending was $42.0M, so the step-up is new and untested against cash flow.

forwardwritten 2026-10-10

The last report (5 Aug)

Quarter ended June 2026, filed figures.

7%
Sales growth
against the same quarter a year earlier
-1.1%
Growth from the quarter before
against 0.3% the quarter before that
1¢
Operating profit
per dollar of sales

The quarter to June 2026 looked fine on top: sales up 7.2% and new students up 10.9%. Underneath, operating profit fell to $3.2M from $14.2M as new campuses and courses cost money before earning any.

The real news was the outlook. UTI said too few high-school leavers had enrolled for autumn auto and diesel courses and cut this year's forecast. Management blamed too few recruiters and a shift toward shorter, cheaper trade courses.

What it did to the thesisIt weakened the case: the miss arrived unannounced, weeks after insiders sold, and the cash the plan depends on shrank. It left open whether the cause is fixable recruiting or weaker demand, which next year's forecast should show. That keeps the view neutral rather than positive.

The quarter in detail

Sales growth from the previous quarter, filed figures.

Earnings per share $0.04 against $0.02 expected; $0.04 as filed, with no adjustments.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C06facthigh confidence
In the quarter to June 2026 revenue rose 7.2% to $218.9M, UTI division 5% and Concorde 11.1%, while operating income fell to $3.2M from $14.2M.
historical · Q3 FY2026written 2026-10-10
C07facthigh confidence
Q3 fiscal 2026 starts rose 10.9% to 6,342: UTI division starts rose 23.4% and Concorde's fell 1.4%; average students rose 5.8% to 25,131.
historical · Q3 FY2026written 2026-10-10
C08facthigh confidence
On 2026-08-05 UTI cut fiscal 2026 guidance: revenue to $893M-$900M from $905M-$915M, reported adjusted EBITDA to $100M-$103M from $114M-$119M, adjusted free cash flow to minus $20M to zero from $20M-$25M.
historical · 2025-11-19 to 2026-08-05written 2026-10-10
C10management claimmedium confidence
Management says about 70% of the $20M cut to baseline EBITDA was a shortfall in high-school auto and diesel starts, from too few field recruiters, and about 30% a shift to shorter, cheaper skilled-trades programs.
against this
  • Lincoln Tech's start growth slowed to 1% in the same summer as fewer enrolled students turned up, a conversion problem at a peer that recruiter numbers at UTI do not explain.
  • UTI division leads were up over 15% and still did not convert, which fits weaker intent as well as too few recruiters.
current state · 2026-08-05written 2026-10-10
What management did with the money

Insiders in 2026Q3: 6 purchases and 0 sales, from their Form 4 filings.

05

The price, and where we disagree

In short. Fair. The price pays for about half of management's 2029 plan, so it is no longer demanding, but it still assumes the new campuses start paying.

Share price
$20.64
close,
Company value for each $1 of cash profit
13.6
rivals' middle 12.4 · its 6-year normal 6.8

The shares fell 34% the day after the August report and have kept falling, to about 60% below July's high, while sales per share rose. Short sellers, who profit from a fall, have added to their bets.

The test comes on 18 November, when UTI reports its year and gives its first forecast for the next one. Even the cut forecast needs a better fourth quarter than last year's.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C12facthigh confidence
The shares closed at $42.37 on 2026-08-05 and $27.87 the next day, down 34.2%, and at $20.64 on 2026-10-09; the 52-week range is $18.02 to $51.34.
current state · 2026-10-09written 2026-10-10
C13facthigh confidence
Over the 252 sessions to 2026-10-09 the price fell 32.3% while revenue per share rose 8.6%: what buyers pay for each dollar of sales fell 37.6%.
historical · 2025-10-08 to 2026-10-09written 2026-10-10
C29facthigh confidence
Short interest was 6.93M shares, 12.97% of the float, at the 2026-09-30 settlement, up from about 4.4M in July.
current state · 2026-09-30written 2026-10-10
C34estimatemedium confidence
Implied by guidance, fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue is $231.8M-$238.8M, up 4.3%-7.5%, and adjusted EBITDA $40.5M-$43.5M against $36.8M a year earlier.
against this

Growth spending is front-loaded, $27.6M of about $35M in nine months, so a stronger Q4 margin is plausible arithmetic, not a sign of trouble.

current state · 2026-08-05written 2026-10-10
How we read the multiple

Counting its debt and cash, a buyer pays about 11 times the cash profit UTI expects this year, before interest, tax and wear on its buildings. In past years the market paid about 7 times.

  1. At 7 times, today's price needs about $161M of yearly cash profit.
  2. This year UTI expects about $101.5M.
  3. Management's 2029 target is about $220M.
  4. So the price assumes UTI gets about half the way there.

Against its own history. Buyers pay more than UTI's own normal, but that normal was set when it was a much smaller, barely profitable company.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C14estimatehigh confidence
At $20.64 enterprise value is about $1.13B: 11.1 times the $101.5M fiscal 2026 reported adjusted EBITDA midpoint and 11.7 times the trailing $96.3M; the vendor's six-year prior median EV/EBITDA is 6.8.
against this
  • Operating leases on most campuses are left out; the vendor, counting them, puts enterprise value near $1.37B and the multiple at 13.1.
  • Reported adjusted EBITDA is after about $35M of growth spending this year; on management's baseline the multiple is far lower (C15).
current state · 2026-10-09written 2026-10-10
C16estimatemedium confidence
At the vendor's six-year median of about 7 times, today's enterprise value needs about $161M of reported adjusted EBITDA: about half the way from fiscal 2026's $101.5M to the fiscal 2029 target of $220M.
against this
  • The six-year median includes fiscal 2020-2022, when UTI had about $300M-$420M of revenue and thin profit, so a normal multiple for today's company may be higher.
  • Peers trade near 12.5 times in the filed cohort, which would make the same price pay for less.
current state · 2026-10-09written 2026-10-10
C15estimatemedium confidence
On management's fiscal 2026 baseline of above $135M, before about $35M of growth spending, enterprise value is about 8.3 times; on the $220M fiscal 2029 target, about 5.1 times.
against this

Baseline adds back the costs of opening campuses and programs, which recur every year the build-out continues; capital spending is guided at $100M or more a year.

current state · 2026-10-09written 2026-10-10
C09management claimmedium confidence
Management reaffirmed fiscal 2029 revenue above $1.2B and adjusted EBITDA approaching $220M, and expects fiscal 2027 revenue growth above fiscal 2026's with modest EBITDA growth.
against this
  • The same management guided fiscal 2026 reported adjusted EBITDA to $114M-$119M nine months before cutting it to $100M-$103M.
  • The only analyst estimate reaching fiscal 2029 puts revenue at about $1,187M, below the $1.2B target.
forwardwritten 2026-10-10
Priced against its rivals

The competitors its own annual report names, each confirmed against the rival's filing. Measured on company value for each $1 of cash profit, cheapest first:

TickerCompanycompany value for each $1 of cash profit
LGCYLegacy Education9.8×
UTIUniversal Technical Institute13.6×
LINCLincoln Educational Services15.1×

The middle of the other 2 is 12.4. Universal Technical Institute, Inc. is 2nd cheapest of 3.

Rivals' figures come from a data provider, so read the spread of the group rather than any single pair.

It sits between its two closest rivals on this measure, so the price is in line with the group rather than special to UTI.

Private or foreign rivals that cannot be priced: Community colleges and state technical colleges.

Where we disagree with the market

The market believes

The August miss means the growth plan is breaking.

We believe

The miss looks like one quarter's recruits, so the price is no longer demanding; but UTI's edge over cheap public colleges is thin.

The fall priced in the insiders' sales and the cut. The filings still show sales growing and slightly more cash than debt.

Against us: interest in UTI rose over 15% and still did not turn into students, and Lincoln Tech saw the same slowdown, which points to weaker demand rather than too few recruiters.

What analysts say, and the evidence
Analysts positive
100%
of 6, 1 Oct
Four months earlier
100%
of 6, 1 Jun
The evidence under this - 5 claims
C13facthigh confidence
Over the 252 sessions to 2026-10-09 the price fell 32.3% while revenue per share rose 8.6%: what buyers pay for each dollar of sales fell 37.6%.
historical · 2025-10-08 to 2026-10-09written 2026-10-10
C10management claimmedium confidence
Management says about 70% of the $20M cut to baseline EBITDA was a shortfall in high-school auto and diesel starts, from too few field recruiters, and about 30% a shift to shorter, cheaper skilled-trades programs.
against this
  • Lincoln Tech's start growth slowed to 1% in the same summer as fewer enrolled students turned up, a conversion problem at a peer that recruiter numbers at UTI do not explain.
  • UTI division leads were up over 15% and still did not convert, which fits weaker intent as well as too few recruiters.
current state · 2026-08-05written 2026-10-10
C22facthigh confidence
Average published tuition and fees at a public two-year college were $4,150 in 2025-26, against up to $69,000 for UTI's auto and diesel program.
against this

Published tuition is an average across all programs; technical programs often charge fees on top, and a UTI program finishes in about a year where an associate degree takes two.

current state · 2025-10-28written 2026-10-10
C06facthigh confidence
In the quarter to June 2026 revenue rose 7.2% to $218.9M, UTI division 5% and Concorde 11.1%, while operating income fell to $3.2M from $14.2M.
historical · Q3 FY2026written 2026-10-10
C19facthigh confidence
At 2026-06-30 UTI held $130.1M of cash and $40.1M of short-term investments against $160.0M of debt, mostly the revolver and two campus term loans, with equity of $344.3M.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-10
06

What could go wrong, and how we would know

The risks

  • Cheaper public colleges. States are funding new trade centres that charge a fraction of UTI's tuition, and a student may decide the slower, cheaper route is good enough.
  • A new earnings test. From 2028 a course whose graduates earn too little can lose federal loans; UTI depends on federal aid for about 78% of what it collects.
  • Borrowing to build. Cash from running the schools no longer covers the cost of new campuses, so the gap is borrowed and each campus must fill as planned.
  • Demand, not recruiters. If fewer school leavers want auto and diesel courses, adding recruiters will not bring the students back.
  • Trust in the forecast. The forecast was cut without warning weeks after insiders sold, so management's 2029 plan carries less weight.
The evidence under this - 7 claims
C22facthigh confidence
Average published tuition and fees at a public two-year college were $4,150 in 2025-26, against up to $69,000 for UTI's auto and diesel program.
against this

Published tuition is an average across all programs; technical programs often charge fees on top, and a UTI program finishes in about a year where an associate degree takes two.

current state · 2025-10-28written 2026-10-10
C23facthigh confidence
Texas State Technical College opened a more than $35M state-funded transportation technology center near Houston in December 2025, expected to add 400 to 500 students, a 71% rise.
historical · 2025-12written 2026-10-10
C26factmedium confidence
The Education Department's final rule of 2026-07-01 cuts Direct Loans to a program whose graduates fail to out-earn high-school graduates in two of three years; the Department projects programs holding 31% of certificate students fail.
against this

The Department's projection covers all certificates, including cosmetology and massage that dominate the failures; UTI's 10-Q reports no change to its risk factors.

current state · 2026-07-10written 2026-10-10
C02facthigh confidence
About 78% of fiscal 2025 cash revenue came from federal student aid and veterans' programs; the 90/10 ratio was about 81% at UTI's institutions and 76% at Concorde's, against a 90% limit.
against this

The company's own footnote warns individual institutions' ratios vary from the averages, so one campus group may sit nearer 90% than the mean shows.

current state · 2025-09-30written 2026-10-10
C17facthigh confidence
In the twelve months to June 2026 operating cash flow was $74.5M against capital spending of $97.4M; in the nine months, $17.4M against $80.9M, with $75M drawn net on the revolver and $10.4M of it left undrawn at June 30.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-10
C10management claimmedium confidence
Management says about 70% of the $20M cut to baseline EBITDA was a shortfall in high-school auto and diesel starts, from too few field recruiters, and about 30% a shift to shorter, cheaper skilled-trades programs.
against this
  • Lincoln Tech's start growth slowed to 1% in the same summer as fewer enrolled students turned up, a conversion problem at a peer that recruiter numbers at UTI do not explain.
  • UTI division leads were up over 15% and still did not convert, which fits weaker intent as well as too few recruiters.
current state · 2026-08-05written 2026-10-10
C11facthigh confidence
All 14 insider sales in 2026 were discretionary: Coliseum Capital, a director's fund, sold 3,000,000 shares at $41.40 on 2026-06-08 and the chief executive 94,500 at about $41.15-$41.63 on 2026-06-29; the chairman bought 13,000 shares at $19.68-$28.21 after the fall.
historical · 2026-02 to 2026-09written 2026-10-10
What we still do not know
  • Which UTI and Concorde courses would pass the government's new earnings test; the department's own data could not be reached.
  • Whether the autumn shortfall was too few recruiters, as management says, or fewer students wanting the courses.
  • How much room the new bank loan's limits leave if profit falls further.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C26factmedium confidence
The Education Department's final rule of 2026-07-01 cuts Direct Loans to a program whose graduates fail to out-earn high-school graduates in two of three years; the Department projects programs holding 31% of certificate students fail.
against this

The Department's projection covers all certificates, including cosmetology and massage that dominate the failures; UTI's 10-Q reports no change to its risk factors.

current state · 2026-07-10written 2026-10-10
C10management claimmedium confidence
Management says about 70% of the $20M cut to baseline EBITDA was a shortfall in high-school auto and diesel starts, from too few field recruiters, and about 30% a shift to shorter, cheaper skilled-trades programs.
against this
  • Lincoln Tech's start growth slowed to 1% in the same summer as fewer enrolled students turned up, a conversion problem at a peer that recruiter numbers at UTI do not explain.
  • UTI division leads were up over 15% and still did not convert, which fits weaker intent as well as too few recruiters.
current state · 2026-08-05written 2026-10-10
C18facthigh confidence
On 2026-08-12 UTI signed a $200M senior secured revolver led by Fifth Third, maturing August 2031, with $75M more uncommitted and covenants on net leverage and interest coverage.
current state · 2026-08-12written 2026-10-10

What would change our view

  1. Neutral→AttractiveA cheaper price on unchanged execution

    It needs all of:

    • ○The price falls to 8 times last year's cash profit, counting debt and cash.about ≈$14.11 today, 32% below the last close
    • ○This year's cash profit comes in at $100M or more, the bottom of UTI's cut forecast.checked at the next results, due by 18 Nov
  2. Neutral→AttractiveThe miss proves one quarter's problem

    It needs all of:

    • ○UTI forecasts next year's cash profit at $120M or more.checked at the next results, due by 18 Nov
    • ○New students in the UTI division grow on a year earlier in the first quarter of fiscal 2027.checked at the next results, due by 18 Nov
  3. Neutral→UnattractiveThe plan or the funding breaks

    It needs any of:

    • ○UTI forecasts next year's cash profit below $100M.checked at the next results, due by 18 Nov
    • ○The government cuts federal loans to a UTI course that brings in more than 5% of sales.watched as it happens
We would also be wrong if
  • New students in the UTI division fall on a year earlier in two quarters running.
  • Cash from running the schools fails to cover campus spending in fiscal 2028.

What is coming

  • 18 November 2026 Fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter results and fiscal 2027 guidance: Whether the high-school shortfall stayed in one quarter, and how much profit growth management guides for fiscal 2027.
Every dated event ahead
  • 18 November 2026 Fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter results and fiscal 2027 guidance: Whether the high-school shortfall stayed in one quarter, and how much profit growth management guides for fiscal 2027.
  • 15 February 2027 First-quarter fiscal 2027 results: Whether UTI division starts grow again with the extra recruiters, and whether Concorde's starts recover.
  • 15 June 2027 Clearinghouse spring 2027 enrolment count: Whether certificate enrolment is still growing near 10%, the trend UTI rides.
Since we wrote this
Written
10 Oct
Price the thesis read
$20.64
9 Oct
  • 10 OctThesis writtenNeutral, medium convictionWritten five weeks before fiscal 2026 results, after the August guidance cut took a third off the shares and insiders' June sales came to light.

Sources 22

Where this came from

Sources - 22

Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.

  1. S01primarycompany filing2025-11-26
    Item 1 business, programs, tuition ranges and revenue per student, competition, the Title IV and veterans' share of cash revenue, 90/10, segment results, the income and cash flow statements and the risk factors
    backsC01C02C03C04C20C21C22C35
  2. S02primarycompany release2025-11-19
    fiscal 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $126.5M, the original fiscal 2026 guidance with a baseline above $150M and about $40M of growth investments, and the fiscal 2029 targets
    backsC03C08C14C34C36
  3. S03primarycompany filing2026-08-06
    segment revenue and operating income, the balance sheet, the debt note, liquidity, nine-month cash flow, the share count and the legal proceedings
    backsC06C14C17C19C37
  4. S04primarycompany release2026-08-05
    Q3 revenue, starts and adjusted EBITDA by segment, the nine-month adjusted EBITDA reconciliation, and the revised fiscal 2026 guidance
    backsC06C07C08C09C14C15C16C32C34
  5. S05primarycompany release2026-08-05
    each division's fiscal 2025 revenue, margins, program mix, campus count, 90/10 ratio, graduation and employment rates, and the new-campus economics
    backsC01C02C05C27C31
  6. S06primarytranscript2026-08-05
    UTI third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held 2026-08-05
    management's account of the miss (field reps short of need, the shift to shorter skilled-trades programs), the fiscal 2027 colour, capital spending and campus ramps; questions from Barrington, Northland, Rosenblatt and other analysts
    That $20 million delta 70%, roughly, Steven, is directly related to the auto diesel high school starts miss for all the reasons Jerome just outlined. About 30% is the mix piece.
    backsC09C10C15C31C32
  7. S07primarycompany filing2026-08-18
    the $200M senior secured revolver led by Fifth Third, maturing August 2031, the $75M uncommitted incremental and the leverage and coverage covenants
    backsC18
  8. S08primarycompany filing2026-06-10
    Coliseum's sale of 3,000,000 shares and its remaining 971,440 shares, 1.76%, with a lock-up to the Q3 results
    the Reporting Persons agreed not to sell any shares of Common Stock until after the Issuer publicly announces its earnings results for the fiscal quarter ending June 30, 2026
    backsC11
  9. S09primarycompany filing2026-10-10
    every open-market sale and purchase with the Rule 10b5-1 flag: 14 sales, none under a plan, and the chairman's purchases after the fall
    backsC11
  10. S10primarycompany filing2026-01-20
    executive officers, beneficial ownership, the bonus and performance-stock design and fiscal 2025 payouts
    backsC28C35
  11. S11secondaryvendor data2026-10-10
    Research pack, frozen 2026-10-10 (FMP market data, FINRA short interest)
    the close of $20.64 on 2026-10-09, daily closes, the 52-week range, the price-move decomposition, the analyst split and estimates, short interest, the vendor's EV/EBITDA history and the filed cohort
    backsC12C13C14C16C29C30C36
  12. S12primarycompany filing2026-03-04
    the rival's campus openings in UTI's markets, including Houston and Rowlett, Texas, and its skilled-trades mix
    We opened a new campus in Houston, Texas in August 2025, and have signed leases for new campuses in Hicksville
    backsC21
  13. S13primarycompany release2026-08-10
    the peer's own start slowdown in the same summer
    However, our start growth for the quarter slowed to one percent, as fewer enrolled students than expected attended the first day of class.
    read, but no claim rests on it
  14. S14primarygovernment data2026-09-14
    the median wage of $50,620 in May 2025, openings of about 66,200 a year and 5% growth from 2025 to 2035
    The median annual wage for automotive service technicians and mechanics was $50,620 in May 2025. ... About 66,200 openings for automotive service technicians and mechanics are projected each year, on average, over the decade.
    backsC24
  15. S15primaryindustry data2025-10-28
    the average published tuition and fees at a public two-year college in 2025-26
    Public two-year in-district: $4,150, $110 higher than in 2024-25 (2.7% before adjusting for inflation).
    backsC22
  16. S16primaryindustry data2026-06-04
    national undergraduate certificate enrolment growth in spring 2026
    At the undergraduate level, enrollment increased across certificate, associate, and bachelor’s programs, with undergraduate certificate programs continuing to post the fastest growth (+10.2%).
    backsC25
  17. S17primaryindustry data2026-01-15
    certificate enrolment at community colleges and its growth since 2021
    After four years of consecutive growth, there are now 752,000 enrollments in undergraduate certificate programs at community colleges, a total increase of 28.3 percent from fall 2021.
    backsC25
  18. S18secondaryother2026-07-10
    the Education Department's final rule of 2026-07-01: the earnings-premium test, the loss of Direct Loans after two failing years in three, and the Department's own projection of who fails
    programs enrolling 31 percent of undergraduate certificate students are projected to fail the earnings premium test, compared with programs enrolling four percent of associate degree students and less than one percent of bachelor’s degree students.
    backsC26
  19. S19secondarynews2025-12-03
    a state-funded public college adding 400 to 500 transportation-technology students in the Houston area, where UTI runs a campus
    Texas State Technical College's Fort Bend County campus has opened a new state-of-the-art facility, representing a more than $35 million investment from the state ... expected to enable TSTC to admit an additional 400 to 500 students, representing a 71% increase in enrollment.
    backsC23
  20. S20primarycompany filing2026-10-10
    Content financials card, content/UTI/financials.json (the filer's XBRL facts)
    content/UTI/financials.json
    six years of filed revenue, operating income, SG&A, stock pay, operating cash flow, capital spending and diluted shares, and the trailing twelve months to June 2026
    backsC13C17C20C33
  21. S21primarycompany filing2026-09-15
    a rival running campus healthcare career schools, Concorde's product
    We provide career-focused, post-secondary education services to students at all stages of adult life, from recent high school graduates to working parents, through our accredited academic institutions: High Desert Medical College
    backsC38
  22. S22primarycompany filing2026-03-02
    a rival's pre-licensure nursing schools, Rasmussen $246.2M of 2025 revenue, competing with Concorde's nursing programs
    We are a national leader in pre-licensure nursing education, focused on a Diploma in Practical Nursing, or PN diploma, and an Associate Degree in Nursing, or ADN, through Rasmussen University and Hondros College of Nursing
    backsC38
Rendered from content/UTI/thesis.json · thesis reviewed 2026-10-10. This page explains a company; it does not say what to pay, when to buy or how much.