← All thesesMEDPNeutralMedium convictionThursday 22 October 2026עברית

Medpace Holdings

A hired crew that runs drug trials from start to finish for small biotech companies, which have a promising drug but no staff to test it.

Our viewNeutral Medium conviction
The scores
The profile · 1-4
Growth3/4 ↓

Revenue grew 20% in 2025 but service revenue 11.5%, led by a few metabolic programmes, and the guide implies a slower second half.

Business quality3/4 →

Share gains with small sponsors who pay heavily for delay, but no lock-in: contracts end on 30 days' notice and large rivals bid.

Financial position4/4 →

No debt, $502.7M of cash and operating cash flow of $752.7M against $46.0M of capital spending.

Execution record3/4 →

Beat EPS estimates eight quarters running and raised the 2026 guide, but the 2025 win rate fell and Q1 2026 bookings slipped.

Per share capture4/4 →

Diluted shares fell about 22% since 2021 on cash buybacks while stock pay stayed near 1.4% of revenue.

Potential2/4 →

A large market, but growth rests on a backlog clients can cancel and on biotech funding outside Medpace's control.

Risk profile3/4 ↓

Top ten customers are 40% of revenue, small sponsors depend on funding, and the founder controls 19% with related-party ties.

Valuation3/4 ↓

About 35 times earnings needs about 6% growth for ever, near what the plan and consensus describe if bookings hold.

Evidence quality3/4 →

Filed figures carry the numbers, but the burn-rate history, win rate and metabolic roll-off are management's or analysts' words.

The Verdict

We rate Medpace neutral. It runs complete drug trials for small biotech companies, and the business is solid: it has been winning work from bigger rivals, has no debt and keeps buying back its own shares. The price is fair, not cheap: about 35 times a year's profit, which asks for steady growth for many years. The view hinges on orders. Revenue has grown faster than new orders because Medpace has been working through its order book unusually fast, so orders must now pick up. A few more quarters of strong orders would make today's price cheap.

The long caseSmall biotechs keep raising money and outsourcing whole trials, and Medpace keeps winning them faster than larger rivals.

The evidence under this - 7 claims
C01facthigh confidence
Medpace runs complete Phase I to IV drug and device trials for sponsors as one reportable segment, with about 6,200 staff in 46 countries at the end of 2025 and about 6,500 by June 2026.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-10
C02facthigh confidence
Small biopharmaceutical companies supplied 82% of Medpace's 2025 revenue and mid-sized ones 13%; the 10-K warns these sponsors may have limited access to capital.
historical · FY2025written 2026-10-10
C32inferencemedium confidence
Medpace is taking share of outsourced trial work: revenue less pass-throughs grew 11.5% in 2025 while IQVIA's trial segment grew 4.3% and ICON 0.8%.
derivedGrowth rates from three filings for the same year (C06, C30, C31).
against this
  • Much of Medpace's growth came from a few large metabolic programmes (C16, C17), so some of the gap is mix rather than repeatable wins.
  • IQVIA and ICON sell mainly to large pharmaceutical companies, so part of the gap is which sponsors spent more in 2025.
historical · FY2025written 2026-10-10
C11facthigh confidence
Medpace converted 24.1% of opening backlog to revenue in Q2 2026; Baird's analyst put the long-term average to the start of 2025 at about 18%, and the chief executive did not dispute it.
against this

The chief executive attributes much of the rise to stricter gating of what enters backlog, which lifts the rate without faster work, so the two rates are not strictly comparable.

historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-10
C13inferencemedium confidence
At the 18% historical conversion rate, $3.0B of backlog would yield about $543M of revenue a quarter against $707M in Q2 2026, so holding revenue growth needs backlog itself to grow.
derived18% of $3,014.2M is $542.6M; compared with Q2 2026 revenue of $707.3M (C10, C11, C07).
against this

Management expects conversion to drift down slowly rather than snap back (C12), and pre-backlog that has grown faster than backlog would refill it (C40).

forwardwritten 2026-10-10
C22estimatemedium confidence
At $612.05 Medpace is worth about $17.08B, 34.8 times trailing net income of $491.5M and also about 34.8 times the guided 2026 EPS midpoint, a 2.9% earnings yield; at a 9% required return that needs about 6% growth a year for ever.
against this
  • Free cash flow of about $706.7M in the year to June 2026 is a 4.1% yield, which needs about 4.9% growth at the same return, but it is lifted by advance billings.
  • The 9% required return is an assumption; at 8% the implied growth is about 5%.
current state · 2026-10-09written 2026-10-10
C10facthigh confidence
In Q2 2026 net awards grew 28.2% to $795.7M, a book-to-bill of 1.13 and a record for net bookings, with backlog at $3,014.2M, up 4.9% on a year earlier; in Q3 net awards were $873.4M on revenue of $716.0M, a book-to-bill of about 1.22, with backlog at $3,167.2M, up 5.6%.
  1. 2026-10-21editedQ3 2026 release added a second quarter of awards above revenue.
  2. 2026-10-22editedthird-quarter call confirmed the award figures; no change to the claim
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-10
01

The company

Medpace is a contract research organisation: a company drug makers hire to run the trials that prove a medicine works and is safe. It designs the study, signs up hospitals, enrols patients, runs the lab tests and scans, and prepares the file for the regulator.

Its customers are mostly small biotech companies, 82% of 2025 revenue, which usually have one promising drug and no trial staff. Without Medpace they would hire their own team, or juggle a big rival such as IQVIA or ICON with several specialist suppliers.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C01facthigh confidence
Medpace runs complete Phase I to IV drug and device trials for sponsors as one reportable segment, with about 6,200 staff in 46 countries at the end of 2025 and about 6,500 by June 2026.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-10
C02facthigh confidence
Small biopharmaceutical companies supplied 82% of Medpace's 2025 revenue and mid-sized ones 13%; the 10-K warns these sponsors may have limited access to capital.
historical · FY2025written 2026-10-10
C03management claimmedium confidence
Medpace says it differentiates itself by a disciplined, full-service Phase I to IV model and therapeutic expertise, and calls itself a partner of choice for small and mid-sized sponsors.
against this

The 10-K gives no win rate, and the chief executive said on the Q2 2026 call that the 2025 win rate was below its historical level (C40).

current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-10
C38facthigh confidence
Medpace's 10-K names IQVIA, ICON, PPD (now Thermo Fisher) and Fortrea as its major rivals, plus specialty CROs and sponsors' own in-house research departments.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-10

How it makes money

Medpace is paid by the trial, as the work gets done. About 59% of 2025 revenue was fees for its own staff's work, and 41% was hospital and travel costs it passes on to the sponsor at little or no profit.

New trials are won as awards and then sit in an order book, called backlog, of about $3.0B. Clients can cancel on about 30 days' notice, so the order book is a list of likely work, not a promise.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C06facthigh confidence
Medpace's 2025 revenue grew 20.0% to $2,530.2M, but reimbursed pass-through costs grew 34.6% to $1,037.5M; revenue less those costs grew 11.5%, from $1,338.4M to $1,492.7M.
against this

Pass-through costs are real revenue under ASC 606 and the company reports the 20.0%; the 11.5% is this thesis's subtraction of two filed lines, not a figure the company states.

historical · FY2025written 2026-10-10
C04facthigh confidence
Most Medpace customers can end a contract without cause on 30 days' notice, and an award can be cancelled before it becomes a contract, so backlog is not a binding commitment.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-10
C08facthigh confidence
Net new awards were $2,646.8M in 2025 against $2,230.0M in 2024, a book-to-bill of 1.05, and year-end backlog was $3,027.2M, up only 4.3%.
historical · FY2025written 2026-10-10
C16facthigh confidence
Metabolic trials, mostly obesity drugs, grew from $457.5M of revenue in 2024 to $745.0M in 2025, and to $219.1M in Q2 2026 from $147.9M, about 31% of the quarter.
historical · FY2024 to Q2 2026written 2026-10-10
Where the money comes from, stream by stream
StreamShare of sales (FY2025)How it earns it
Service fees: trial management, monitoring, lab, imaging, data and regulatory work59.0%Fees for the work Medpace's own staff do, recognised as the trial progresses; this is what carries the margin.
Reimbursed out-of-pocket costs41.0%Payments to hospitals and investigators, patient travel and other third-party costs passed through to the sponsor at little or no margin.
Metabolic trials (within both lines)29.4%Mostly obesity and related drugs; the fastest-growing area, $745.0M in 2025.
Oncology trials (within both lines)29.5%Cancer drugs, $747.6M in 2025; over half of Q2 2026 bookings.

Who runs it

August Troendle founded Medpace in 1992 and still runs it as chief executive and chairman. He owns about 19% of the company, though he sold heavily this autumn near the highs, without a pre-set plan. The long-serving president left in April 2026 and has not been replaced.

Half of the executives' yearly bonus rides on profit against the company's own forecast and a quarter on revenue; none on orders. Medpace also earns about 2% of revenue from drug companies linked to Troendle.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C43facthigh confidence
August Troendle, 69, founded Medpace in 1992 and is chief executive and chairman; Kevin Brady has been chief financial officer since August 2021; president Jesse Geiger left after 18.5 years in April 2026.
current state · 2026-04-23written 2026-10-10
C46facthigh confidence
Directors and officers owned 20.5% of Medpace at the 2026 proxy record date, Troendle 19.6% and Medpace Investors, which he controls, 16.6%; BlackRock held 8.5%.
current state · 2026-03-31written 2026-10-10
C27facthigh confidence
Founder and chief executive August Troendle cut his stake to 5,396,508 shares, 19.1%, selling by limit orders between 2026-08-10 and 2026-09-25 at about $600 to $628; insiders made 58 open-market sales in a year, 57 outside a 10b5-1 plan, and no purchases.
against this

Troendle still holds about 19% and Medpace Investors, an entity he controls, holds 16.8%, so the sales leave him the dominant owner.

current state · 2026-09-28written 2026-10-10
C29facthigh confidence
Executive bonuses pay 50% on EBITDA against guidance, 25% on revenue against guidance and 25% on individual goals; the chief executive's salary was $950,000 and his 2025 bonus 52.5% of it.
historical · FY2025written 2026-10-10
C28facthigh confidence
Medpace earned $53.2M in 2025 from CinRx and LIB Therapeutics, sponsors linked to its chief executive, and leases its head office from entities he owns.
historical · FY2025written 2026-10-10
02

Why it wins, and who could beat it

Why customers come back

For a small sponsor, delay is the expensive thing. Researchers at Tufts estimate one day's delay costs a drug about $800,000 of lost sales, far more than the gap between two firms' fees. So sponsors pick the firm they trust to finish on time.

Medpace's record with small sponsors seems to be winning: in 2025 its own service revenue grew 11.5%, while IQVIA's trial business grew 4.3% and ICON's revenue 0.8%. Nothing locks a client in, though; the record has to be re-earned on every trial.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C33facthigh confidence
Tufts researchers estimate a single day of delay in drug development costs about $800,000 in lost prescription sales and $40,000 in direct trial costs, with Phase III trials the dearest at $55,716 a day.
historical · study published August 2024written 2026-10-10
C34inferencemedium confidence
For a small sponsor with one drug and limited cash, a CRO that keeps a trial on schedule is worth far more than any difference in fees, which is why a record of finishing trials is the thing Medpace sells.
derivedThe cost of delay (C33) against a buyer base of small sponsors with limited capital (C02) and a full-service model sold on timely delivery (C03).
against this

Contracts end on 30 days' notice (C04), so the record has to be re-earned on each award; it is a reputation, not a lock-in.

current state · 2026-10-10written 2026-10-10
C32inferencemedium confidence
Medpace is taking share of outsourced trial work: revenue less pass-throughs grew 11.5% in 2025 while IQVIA's trial segment grew 4.3% and ICON 0.8%.
derivedGrowth rates from three filings for the same year (C06, C30, C31).
against this
  • Much of Medpace's growth came from a few large metabolic programmes (C16, C17), so some of the gap is mix rather than repeatable wins.
  • IQVIA and ICON sell mainly to large pharmaceutical companies, so part of the gap is which sponsors spent more in 2025.
historical · FY2025written 2026-10-10
C30facthigh confidence
IQVIA's Research & Development Solutions segment, which runs outsourced clinical trials, grew revenue 4.3% to $8,896M in 2025.
historical · FY2025written 2026-10-10
C31facthigh confidence
ICON, the second-largest listed rival, grew 2025 revenue 0.8% to $8,251.3M, and 0.1% in constant currency.
historical · FY2025written 2026-10-10

The threat

IQVIA, ICON, Thermo Fisher's PPD and Fortrea run the same kind of trials, are larger, and bid for the same awards. The other threat is the client itself: when a big drug maker buys a small biotech, its trials can move to the buyer's own staff.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C38facthigh confidence
Medpace's 10-K names IQVIA, ICON, PPD (now Thermo Fisher) and Fortrea as its major rivals, plus specialty CROs and sponsors' own in-house research departments.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-10
C30facthigh confidence
IQVIA's Research & Development Solutions segment, which runs outsourced clinical trials, grew revenue 4.3% to $8,896M in 2025.
historical · FY2025written 2026-10-10
C31facthigh confidence
ICON, the second-largest listed rival, grew 2025 revenue 0.8% to $8,251.3M, and 0.1% in constant currency.
historical · FY2025written 2026-10-10
C02facthigh confidence
Small biopharmaceutical companies supplied 82% of Medpace's 2025 revenue and mid-sized ones 13%; the 10-K warns these sponsors may have limited access to capital.
historical · FY2025written 2026-10-10

The rivals: ICLR, IQV, FTRE, TMO, and 1 more that is private, in-house or listed abroad.

Who else does this, rival by rival
TickerRivalHow far alongPriced against it
ICLRICONPriced against it: YesOn saleYes
IQVIQVIA Research & Development SolutionsPriced against it: YesOn saleYes
FTREFortreaPriced against it: No usable figureOn saleNo usable figure
TMOPPD, part of Thermo FisherPriced against it: One segment onlyOn saleOne segment only
In-houseSponsors' own trial teamsPriced against it: In-houseOn saleIn-house
03

How big it could get

How big this could get

Drug and biotech companies started about 2,185 mid- and late-stage trials in 2025, up slightly after three years of decline, inside roughly $145B a year of trial spending. Medpace's own service revenue was about $1.5B of that.

Nobody publishes how much small sponsors spend on outsourced trials, so the market Medpace actually serves cannot be measured in dollars.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C35facthigh confidence
ClinicalTrials.gov counts industry-sponsored Phase 2 and 3 interventional trials starting at 2,345 in 2022, 2,231 in 2023, 2,104 in 2024 and 2,185 in 2025.
historical · 2022 to 2025written 2026-10-10
C36facthigh confidence
The IQVIA Institute reports biopharma funding and large-pharma R&D slowed in 2025 but stayed well above pre-pandemic levels, and most therapeutic areas saw small declines in trial starts between 2024 and 2025.
historical · 2025written 2026-10-10
C37facthigh confidence
Fortrea's 10-K states that Phase I to IV clinical development spending by drug and biotech companies is forecast at about $145B in 2026, and puts its own addressable market at about $41B.
historical · 2026 forecastwritten 2026-10-10
Where the growth is coming from, business by business

Where the growth is coming from

BusinessShare of revenueGrowth: last quarterLast half-yearLast yearShare in 3 years at its half-year rate
Oncology32%+19.4%+15.2%+16.2%32%
Metabolic29%+5.0%+23.4%+48.2%35%
Other14%-6.1%-11.7%-10.3%6%
Central Nervous System12%+27.5%+31.4%+38.6%17%
Cardiology9%+3.3%+2.8%+2.6%6%
Antiviral And Anti Infective4%-12.9%+6.0%+10.9%3%
Whole company100%+8.5%+12.7%+20.4%100%

On the filed split through 2026-09-30, if each business keeps its last half-year's growth, the company grows about 14% next year and 17% in year 3, against 24.7% over the last twelve months. A scenario, not a forecast: no business holds its rate.

How we read it: The blend, not metabolic: its largest programmes are winding down and new metabolic awards are smaller, so carrying its rate forward would overstate growth.

04

The results

The numbers

Is it growing?Steady

Sales grew 20% over the twelve months to Sep 2026, about the same pace as the 20% in the year to Dec 2025.

Dec 2021: $1.14BDec 2022: $1.46BDec 2023: $1.89BDec 2024: $2.11BDec 2025: $2.53B12 mo to Sep 2026: $2.84B$1.14B$2.84B
Is it profitable?Strong

Operating margin is 21%, up from 18% in the year to Dec 2023.

Dec 2021: 17%Dec 2022: 19%Dec 2023: 18%Dec 2024: 21%Dec 2025: 21%12 mo to Sep 2026: 21%17%21%
How steady is it?Uneven

Yearly sales growth has ranged from +12% to +29% over the last 5 years.

Dec 2021: +23%Dec 2022: +28%Dec 2023: +29%Dec 2024: +12%Dec 2025: +20%+23%+20%
Does it earn good returns?Strong

Each dollar put into the business earns 114% a year after tax, up from 20% in the year to Dec 2021.

Dec 2021: 20%Dec 2022: 35%Dec 2023: 57%Dec 2024: 55%Dec 2025: 69%12 mo to Sep 2026: 114%20%114%
Is it making cash?Strong

It turned 24% of sales into free cash, $668M over the last twelve months.

Dec 2021: $235MDec 2022: $351MDec 2023: $397MDec 2024: $572MDec 2025: $682M12 mo to Sep 2026: $668M$235M$668M
Is profit turning into cash?Real cash

Free cash flow was 1.3 times net income.

Dec 2021: 1.3×Dec 2022: 1.4×Dec 2023: 1.4×Dec 2024: 1.4×Dec 2025: 1.5×12 mo to Sep 2026: 1.3×1.3×1.3×
Are shares being diluted?Shrinking

The share count fell 25% in 4.8 years, and pay in shares costs 0.8% of sales.

Dec 2021: 37.7MDec 2022: 33.7MDec 2023: 31.8MDec 2024: 32.0MDec 2025: 29.5M12 mo to Sep 2026: 28.4M37.7M28.4M
All the numbers

Filed figures from the company's 10-K and 10-Q, read 2026-10-22. Fiscal years end in December.

Dec 2021Dec 2022Dec 2023Dec 2024Dec 202512 mo to Sep 2026
Size and growth
Sales$1.14B$1.46B$1.89B$2.11B$2.53B$2.84B
Sales growth+23%+28%+29%+12%+20%+20%
Profit
Operating margin17%19%18%21%21%21%
Net margin16%17%15%19%18%18%
What growth costs, per sales dollar
Selling, general and admin9.5%9.0%8.6%8.5%7.8%6.8%
Pay in shares1.3%1.5%1.1%1.2%1.4%0.8%
Capital spending2.5%2.5%1.9%1.7%1.2%2.0%
Cash
Cash from operations$263M$388M$433M$609M$713M$723M
Free cash flow$235M$351M$397M$572M$682M$668M
Balance sheet
Cash and short-term investments$461M$28.3M$245M$669M$497M$705M
Debt$0$50.0M$0---
Net cash$461M−$21.7M$245M---
Returns and shares
Return on capital20%35%57%55%69%114%
Shares (diluted)37.7M33.7M31.8M32.0M29.5M28.4M

What growth costs

Growth has been making Medpace more profitable. Overheads take a smaller share of each sales dollar than five years ago, pay in shares stays small, and staff numbers grew far slower than revenue, though pass-through costs flatter that last comparison.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C18facthigh confidence
Medpace's operating income was $534.9M in 2025, 21.1% of revenue and about 35.8% of revenue less pass-through costs, against 17.4% of revenue in 2021; net income was $451.1M.
historical · FY2021 to FY2025written 2026-10-10
C45facthigh confidence
Medpace's selling, general and administrative costs fell from 9.5% of revenue in 2021 to 7.8% in 2025, and stock pay was 1.4% of revenue in 2025.
historical · FY2021 to FY2025written 2026-10-10
C44facthigh confidence
Revenue per employee was about $408,100 in 2025, with headcount up 5.1% against revenue up 20%; management expects headcount to grow in the high single digits.
historical · FY2025written 2026-10-10

The last report (22 Jul)

Quarter ended June 2026, filed figures.

17%
Sales growth
against the same quarter a year earlier
0.1%
Growth from the quarter before
against -0.3% the quarter before that
21¢
Operating profit
per dollar of sales

In the September 2026 quarter revenue grew 8.5% to $716.0M and earnings per share rose to $4.84 from $3.86. Medpace signed $873.4M of new work, about 1.2 times its sales, and its backlog of future work grew 5.6% to $3.17B. Management raised the earnings forecast and narrowed the sales forecast to the same midpoint.

On the call the chief executive said cancellations were toward the high end of normal but not a worry, and blamed failed drugs, not lack of funding. He gave no 2027 forecast until February, saying it is close to what analysts expect.

What it did to the thesisThe call answers the open question on cancellations: contained, not gone. The 2027 comment sits close to the growth line we watch, so the view stays Neutral.

The quarter in detail

Sales growth from the previous quarter, filed figures.

Earnings per share $4.25 against $3.98 expected; $4.25 as filed, with no adjustments.

The evidence under this - 6 claims
C10facthigh confidence
In Q2 2026 net awards grew 28.2% to $795.7M, a book-to-bill of 1.13 and a record for net bookings, with backlog at $3,014.2M, up 4.9% on a year earlier; in Q3 net awards were $873.4M on revenue of $716.0M, a book-to-bill of about 1.22, with backlog at $3,167.2M, up 5.6%.
  1. 2026-10-21editedQ3 2026 release added a second quarter of awards above revenue.
  2. 2026-10-22editedthird-quarter call confirmed the award figures; no change to the claim
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-10
C14management claimmedium confidence
In July 2026 Medpace raised its 2026 guide to revenue of $2.805B to $2.885B, net income of $494M to $514M and diluted EPS of $17.25 to $17.95, from a February guide of $2.755B to $2.855B; on 21 October 2026 it narrowed revenue to $2.835B to $2.855B and raised net income to $514M to $524M and diluted EPS to $17.97 to $18.32.
against this

The guide implies far slower growth in the second half than the first (C15), so the raise may reflect a strong first half rather than an improving year.

  1. 2026-10-21editedQ3 2026 release moved the guide: earnings up, revenue range narrowed to the same midpoint.
forwardwritten 2026-10-10
C15estimatemedium confidence
The 21 October guide of $2.835B to $2.855B implies fourth-quarter 2026 revenue of about $705M to $725M after $2,129.9M in nine months, against Q3's $716.0M.
derivedGuide $2,805M to $2,885M less first-half revenue of $1,413.9M, against second-half 2025 revenue of $1,368.4M ($2,530.2M less $1,161.8M) (C14, C06).
against this

Medpace beat EPS estimates in eight straight quarters and raised the 2026 guide once already (C41), so the implied slowdown may be caution.

  1. 2026-10-21editedRe-derived from the Q3 2026 guide and nine-month revenue.
forwardwritten 2026-10-10
C20facthigh confidence
At 30 September 2026 Medpace held $705.3M of cash and generated $216.6M of operating cash flow in Q3; it bought no shares in the quarter and on 20 October replaced its repurchase authorization, with $527.0M left, by one for up to $1.0B to the end of 2028.
  1. 2026-10-21editedQ3 2026 release: cash and repurchase authorization.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-10
C47management claimmedium confidence
The chief executive said third-quarter backlog cancellations were 'not something to call out, but also not a help', toward the higher end of the expected range but within it, driven by products failing and safety signals rather than funding, and that he sees no reason for high cancellations in the fourth quarter though they 'come out of the blue'.
against this
  • The same executive attributed the weaker revenue growth of recent years primarily to cancellations, so a quarter 'toward the higher end' is the failure mode the thesis watches, described by the person with most reason to play it down.
  • No cancellation amount or rate was given on the call, so 'within range' cannot be checked against the 10-Q's backlog roll-forward until it is read.
historical · Q3 2026written 2026-10-22
C48management claimmedium confidence
Management gave no 2027 guidance, saying it will do so with fourth-quarter results in February, but said it sees 'no large disconnect' between analyst consensus and its own modelling, that its 2027 revenue expectation has risen month to month, that the Cincinnati campus expansion adds about $20 million of operating costs in 2027, and that pass-through costs should stay at about 40% to 40.5% of revenue in the second half.
against this
  • An analyst on the call put consensus 2027 revenue growth near 6%, which is the 5% line of the thesis's third invalidation criterion with little room, and another noted that the implied growth is lower than Medpace usually delivers; 'no disconnect' therefore says management expects growth only just above that line.
  • The chief executive added that how much 2027 revenue is delivered depends on fourth-quarter awards and cancellations, which means the statement is conditional.
historical · Q3 2026written 2026-10-22
What management did with the money

Medpace spends its spare cash on its own shares. It bought $912.9M of stock in 2025 and $294.7M more in the second quarter of 2026, with no debt and no acquisitions, so the share count has fallen about a fifth since 2021.

Insiders in 2026Q3: 10 purchases and 41 sales, from their Form 4 filings.

The evidence under this - 2 claims
C21facthigh confidence
Medpace bought back 2,961,924 shares for $912.9M in 2025 and 705,616 for $294.7M in Q2 2026, leaving $527.0M authorised; diluted shares fell from 37.7M in 2021 to 29.5M in 2025, with 28.6M guided for 2026.
historical · FY2021 to Q2 2026written 2026-10-10
C20facthigh confidence
At 30 September 2026 Medpace held $705.3M of cash and generated $216.6M of operating cash flow in Q3; it bought no shares in the quarter and on 20 October replaced its repurchase authorization, with $527.0M left, by one for up to $1.0B to the end of 2028.
  1. 2026-10-21editedQ3 2026 release: cash and repurchase authorization.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-10
05

The price, and where we disagree

In short. Fair. The price pays for the business as it is plus several years of solid growth, which is reachable only if orders keep growing faster than they have.

Share price
$612.05
close,
Price for each $1 of yearly profit
35.2
rivals' middle 35.1 · its 6-year normal 33.8

The shares have swung hard this year. They fell to $393.42 in April after cancellations spiked, then recovered above $600 as orders came back. Most analysts now rate them a hold, and the founder sold near the top.

The next test is the fourth-quarter report in February, with the first 2027 forecast. Management says its 2027 view rises month by month but depends on fourth-quarter orders and cancellations.

The evidence under this - 6 claims
C24facthigh confidence
Medpace shares rose 54.7% on 2025-07-22 after Q2 2025, fell 15.9% to $446.05 on 2026-02-10 on the 2026 guide, fell 22.6% to $393.42 on 2026-04-23 after Q1, rose 14.7% on 2026-07-23, and closed at $612.05 on 2026-10-09.
historical · 2025-07-22 to 2026-10-09written 2026-10-10
C09facthigh confidence
In Q1 2026 backlog cancellations reached their highest in over a year, requests for proposal fell, and net book-to-bill was 0.88; the shares fell 22.6% on the day.
historical · Q1 2026written 2026-10-10
C10facthigh confidence
In Q2 2026 net awards grew 28.2% to $795.7M, a book-to-bill of 1.13 and a record for net bookings, with backlog at $3,014.2M, up 4.9% on a year earlier; in Q3 net awards were $873.4M on revenue of $716.0M, a book-to-bill of about 1.22, with backlog at $3,167.2M, up 5.6%.
  1. 2026-10-21editedQ3 2026 release added a second quarter of awards above revenue.
  2. 2026-10-22editedthird-quarter call confirmed the award figures; no change to the claim
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-10
C27facthigh confidence
Founder and chief executive August Troendle cut his stake to 5,396,508 shares, 19.1%, selling by limit orders between 2026-08-10 and 2026-09-25 at about $600 to $628; insiders made 58 open-market sales in a year, 57 outside a 10b5-1 plan, and no purchases.
against this

Troendle still holds about 19% and Medpace Investors, an entity he controls, holds 16.8%, so the sales leave him the dominant owner.

current state · 2026-09-28written 2026-10-10
C25factmedium confidence
Of 19 analysts, 4 rate Medpace a buy, 15 a hold and none a sell; the positive share fell from 28.6% on 2026-06-01 to 14.3% on 2026-10-01, while average price targets drifted up 16.5%.
current state · 2026-10-09written 2026-10-10
C48management claimmedium confidence
Management gave no 2027 guidance, saying it will do so with fourth-quarter results in February, but said it sees 'no large disconnect' between analyst consensus and its own modelling, that its 2027 revenue expectation has risen month to month, that the Cincinnati campus expansion adds about $20 million of operating costs in 2027, and that pass-through costs should stay at about 40% to 40.5% of revenue in the second half.
against this
  • An analyst on the call put consensus 2027 revenue growth near 6%, which is the 5% line of the thesis's third invalidation criterion with little room, and another noted that the implied growth is lower than Medpace usually delivers; 'no disconnect' therefore says management expects growth only just above that line.
  • The chief executive added that how much 2027 revenue is delivered depends on fourth-quarter awards and cancellations, which means the statement is conditional.
historical · Q3 2026written 2026-10-22
How we read the multiple

Investors pay about $17.08B for Medpace. What has to be true:

1. Over the last year it earned $491.5M, so the price is about 35 times that profit. 2. A buyer wanting 9% a year, a common yardstick for a share, then needs profit to grow about 6% a year for ever. 3. Analysts expect about 10% a year for the next two years.

That is reachable if orders keep growing. It is not if revenue slows to match the order book.

Against its own history. Buyers pay a little less for each dollar of sales than a year ago, though sales per share grew a lot; the rating lagged the growth.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C22estimatemedium confidence
At $612.05 Medpace is worth about $17.08B, 34.8 times trailing net income of $491.5M and also about 34.8 times the guided 2026 EPS midpoint, a 2.9% earnings yield; at a 9% required return that needs about 6% growth a year for ever.
against this
  • Free cash flow of about $706.7M in the year to June 2026 is a 4.1% yield, which needs about 4.9% growth at the same return, but it is lifted by advance billings.
  • The 9% required return is an assumption; at 8% the implied growth is about 5%.
current state · 2026-10-09written 2026-10-10
C19facthigh confidence
In the year to June 2026 Medpace earned net income of $491.5M, generated $752.7M of operating cash and spent $46.0M on capital equipment.
historical · TTM to 2026-06-30written 2026-10-10
C42factmedium confidence
Consensus expects Medpace EPS of $17.61 for 2026, inside the company's $17.25 to $17.95 guide, then $19.35 for 2027 and $21.50 for 2028, about 10% to 11% growth a year.
current state · 2026-10-09written 2026-10-10
C23factmedium confidence
On the filed competitor cohort, Medpace's P/E of 35.2 sits at the median of 35.15 between IQVIA's 32.0 and ICON's 38.3, while its EV/EBITDA of 27.4 is far above the 16.4 median, as are its return on capital and growth.
current state · 2026-10-09written 2026-10-10
Priced against its rivals

The competitors its own annual report names, each confirmed against the rival's filing. Measured on price for each $1 of yearly profit, cheapest first:

TickerCompanyprice for each $1 of yearly profit
IQVIQVIA Holdings32.0×
MEDPMedpace Holdings35.2×
ICLRICON38.3×

The middle of the other 2 is 35.1. Medpace Holdings, Inc. is 2nd cheapest of 3.

Rivals' figures come from a data provider, so read the spread of the group rather than any single pair.

On profit it sits in the middle of its listed rivals, but it grows much faster and earns more on its capital, so that middle position looks earned.

Private or foreign rivals that cannot be priced: numerous specialty and regional CROs.

Where we disagree with the market

The market believes

Most analysts rate Medpace a fine business at a full price, and treat the record second-quarter orders as the end of this year's scare.

We believe

Revenue has run ahead of orders, so growth must slow unless orders keep climbing; the price leaves little room if they do not.

Our worry is arithmetic, not quality. Medpace has been converting about 24% of its order book into revenue each quarter against about 18% historically, and management expects that to drift down. If it does, revenue can only keep growing if the order book grows faster than its recent 4.9%.

The evidence against us is real: orders hit a record in the second quarter, management says its pipeline of not-yet-booked work grew faster than the order book, and it has beaten forecasts eight quarters in a row.

What analysts say, and the evidence
Analysts positive
14%
of 14, 1 Oct
Four months earlier
29%
of 14, 1 Jun
The evidence under this - 6 claims
C25factmedium confidence
Of 19 analysts, 4 rate Medpace a buy, 15 a hold and none a sell; the positive share fell from 28.6% on 2026-06-01 to 14.3% on 2026-10-01, while average price targets drifted up 16.5%.
current state · 2026-10-09written 2026-10-10
C10facthigh confidence
In Q2 2026 net awards grew 28.2% to $795.7M, a book-to-bill of 1.13 and a record for net bookings, with backlog at $3,014.2M, up 4.9% on a year earlier; in Q3 net awards were $873.4M on revenue of $716.0M, a book-to-bill of about 1.22, with backlog at $3,167.2M, up 5.6%.
  1. 2026-10-21editedQ3 2026 release added a second quarter of awards above revenue.
  2. 2026-10-22editedthird-quarter call confirmed the award figures; no change to the claim
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-10
C11facthigh confidence
Medpace converted 24.1% of opening backlog to revenue in Q2 2026; Baird's analyst put the long-term average to the start of 2025 at about 18%, and the chief executive did not dispute it.
against this

The chief executive attributes much of the rise to stricter gating of what enters backlog, which lifts the rate without faster work, so the two rates are not strictly comparable.

historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-10
C13inferencemedium confidence
At the 18% historical conversion rate, $3.0B of backlog would yield about $543M of revenue a quarter against $707M in Q2 2026, so holding revenue growth needs backlog itself to grow.
derived18% of $3,014.2M is $542.6M; compared with Q2 2026 revenue of $707.3M (C10, C11, C07).
against this

Management expects conversion to drift down slowly rather than snap back (C12), and pre-backlog that has grown faster than backlog would refill it (C40).

forwardwritten 2026-10-10
C15estimatemedium confidence
The 21 October guide of $2.835B to $2.855B implies fourth-quarter 2026 revenue of about $705M to $725M after $2,129.9M in nine months, against Q3's $716.0M.
derivedGuide $2,805M to $2,885M less first-half revenue of $1,413.9M, against second-half 2025 revenue of $1,368.4M ($2,530.2M less $1,161.8M) (C14, C06).
against this

Medpace beat EPS estimates in eight straight quarters and raised the 2026 guide once already (C41), so the implied slowdown may be caution.

  1. 2026-10-21editedRe-derived from the Q3 2026 guide and nine-month revenue.
forwardwritten 2026-10-10
C42factmedium confidence
Consensus expects Medpace EPS of $17.61 for 2026, inside the company's $17.25 to $17.95 guide, then $19.35 for 2027 and $21.50 for 2028, about 10% to 11% growth a year.
current state · 2026-10-09written 2026-10-10
06

What could go wrong, and how we would know

The risks

  • Orders can vanish fast. Clients can cancel on about 30 days' notice, and early 2026 showed how quickly cancellations can turn a strong quarter weak.
  • Obesity trials are winding down. Metabolic work, mostly obesity drugs, carried much of 2025's growth, and the largest programmes are now shrinking.
  • A few clients matter more. The ten largest customers were about 40% of revenue in the year to June 2026, up from 35% in 2025.
  • Small biotechs need money. Most clients depend on investors to fund their trials; when funding dries up, trials are delayed or cancelled.
  • The founder decides. Troendle controls about a fifth of the shares, sells at will, has no named second-in-command, and has business ties with some clients.
The evidence under this - 8 claims
C04facthigh confidence
Most Medpace customers can end a contract without cause on 30 days' notice, and an award can be cancelled before it becomes a contract, so backlog is not a binding commitment.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-10
C05facthigh confidence
Medpace's top ten customers were 35.1% of 2025 revenue with none at 10%, and its top five and top ten were about 31% and 39% of revenue in the year to September 2026 (31% and 40% to June, 28% and 37% to March).
against this

The rise is mainly a few large metabolic programmes the chief executive says are now reducing (C17), so concentration may fall back as they finish.

  1. 2026-10-22editedthird-quarter call gave the concentration for the year to September: 31% and 39%
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-10
C16facthigh confidence
Metabolic trials, mostly obesity drugs, grew from $457.5M of revenue in 2024 to $745.0M in 2025, and to $219.1M in Q2 2026 from $147.9M, about 31% of the quarter.
historical · FY2024 to Q2 2026written 2026-10-10
C17management claimmedium confidence
The chief executive says some very large metabolic programmes among the top five customers are now reducing, new metabolic opportunities are smaller than a year ago, and oncology was over half of Q2 bookings.
against this

Q2 2026 metabolic revenue still grew 48% on the prior year (C16), so the roll-off had not yet shown in revenue.

  1. 2026-10-22editedthird-quarter call read: oncology mix and lower metabolic demand confirmed in C49
forwardwritten 2026-10-10
C02facthigh confidence
Small biopharmaceutical companies supplied 82% of Medpace's 2025 revenue and mid-sized ones 13%; the 10-K warns these sponsors may have limited access to capital.
historical · FY2025written 2026-10-10
C27facthigh confidence
Founder and chief executive August Troendle cut his stake to 5,396,508 shares, 19.1%, selling by limit orders between 2026-08-10 and 2026-09-25 at about $600 to $628; insiders made 58 open-market sales in a year, 57 outside a 10b5-1 plan, and no purchases.
against this

Troendle still holds about 19% and Medpace Investors, an entity he controls, holds 16.8%, so the sales leave him the dominant owner.

current state · 2026-09-28written 2026-10-10
C28facthigh confidence
Medpace earned $53.2M in 2025 from CinRx and LIB Therapeutics, sponsors linked to its chief executive, and leases its head office from entities he owns.
historical · FY2025written 2026-10-10
C09facthigh confidence
In Q1 2026 backlog cancellations reached their highest in over a year, requests for proposal fell, and net book-to-bill was 0.88; the shares fell 22.6% on the day.
historical · Q1 2026written 2026-10-10
What we still do not know
  • How much of the order book sits with the few large obesity-drug clients, and how fast it runs off.
  • Whether Medpace's win rate against IQVIA and ICON has recovered after falling in 2025.
  • Whether AI tools at drug companies will cut the amount of trial work they hire out, or its price.
  • Who will run the company after its 69-year-old founder.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C17management claimmedium confidence
The chief executive says some very large metabolic programmes among the top five customers are now reducing, new metabolic opportunities are smaller than a year ago, and oncology was over half of Q2 bookings.
against this

Q2 2026 metabolic revenue still grew 48% on the prior year (C16), so the roll-off had not yet shown in revenue.

  1. 2026-10-22editedthird-quarter call read: oncology mix and lower metabolic demand confirmed in C49
forwardwritten 2026-10-10
C40management claimmedium confidence
On the Q2 2026 call the chief executive said pre-backlog is larger than backlog and grew faster over the year, funding is broader, he expects gross bookings to ramp in the second half, and the 2025 win rate was lower than usual.
against this

He also said cancellations are beyond his ability to forecast, and Q1 2026 cancellations had been the highest in over a year (C09).

  1. 2026-10-22editedthird-quarter call read: win-rate fixes called successful; wording of the claim stands
forwardwritten 2026-10-10
C39facthigh confidence
Medpace's 10-K lists as a risk the competitive disadvantage it could suffer from a lack of investment in AI tools.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-10
C43facthigh confidence
August Troendle, 69, founded Medpace in 1992 and is chief executive and chairman; Kevin Brady has been chief financial officer since August 2021; president Jesse Geiger left after 18.5 years in April 2026.
current state · 2026-04-23written 2026-10-10

What would change our view

  1. Neutral→AttractiveA cheaper price with bookings holding

    It needs all of:

    • ○The shares fall to 26 times the last year's profit.about $457.28 today, 25% below the last close
    • ○Third-quarter new orders at least match revenue.checked at the next results, due by 8 Feb
  2. Neutral→AttractiveBookings catch up with revenue

    It needs all of:

    • ○The order book grows 10% or more on a year earlier.checked at the next results, due by 8 Feb
    • ○In the same quarter, new orders reach 1.15 times revenue or more.checked at the next results, due by 8 Feb
  3. Neutral→UnattractiveThe order book shrinks

    It needs any of:

    • ○New orders fall below revenue in any quarter.checked at the next results, due by 8 Feb
    • ○The order book grows less than 2% on a year earlier.checked at the next results, due by 8 Feb
We would also be wrong if
  • The 2027 forecast, due about February, implies revenue growth below 5%.
  • The ten largest customers reach more than 45% of revenue.

What is coming

  • 21 October 2026 Q3 2026 results: Whether net book-to-bill stays above 1.1 and backlog growth picks up as management's expected bookings ramp arrives.
Every dated event ahead
  • 21 October 2026 Q3 2026 results: Whether net book-to-bill stays above 1.1 and backlog growth picks up as management's expected bookings ramp arrives.
  • 10 February 2027 Q4 2026 results and the first 2027 guide: How fast management expects revenue to grow once metabolic programmes roll off and conversion slows.
  • 15 May 2027 2027 annual meeting and proxy: Whether a successor president or a succession plan for the founder is named.
Since we wrote this
Written
10 Oct
Price the thesis read
$612.05
9 Oct
  • 22 OctEarningsCall: cancellations high-normal; no 2027 guide, near consensusThe call read the open cancellations question as contained, not gone, and said 2027 sits near analysts' estimates, so the Neutral view held.
  • 21 OctEarningsQ3 orders ran at 1.22 times sales; backlog up 5.6%Both lines of the test cleared; cancellations and the call are unread, so the Neutral view held.
  • 10 OctThesis writtenNeutral, medium convictionWritten eleven days before Q3 2026 results, after a record bookings quarter and a 55% recovery from the April low.

Also checked 1 time with nothing new to act on.

Sources 19

Where this came from

Sources - 19

Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.

  1. S01primarycompany filing2026-02-10
    business description, customer mix and concentration, cancellation terms, backlog, competitors, risk factors, income statement, revenue by therapeutic area, buybacks, related parties
    backsC01C02C03C04C05C06C08C16C18C21C28C38C39
  2. S02primarycompany release2026-02-09
    Q4 2025 awards and book-to-bill, the first 2026 guide
    backsC08C14
  3. S03primarycompany release2026-07-22
    Q2 2026 results, awards, backlog, cash, buybacks and the raised 2026 guide
    backsC01C07C10C14C19C20C21C22C41C42
  4. S04primarycompany filing2026-07-23
    revenue by therapeutic area, balance sheet, share count, backlog conversion outlook, buyback prices
    backsC07C16C19C20C22
  5. S05primarytranscript2026-07-23
    Medpace Q2 2026 earnings call transcript
    cancellations, customer concentration, conversion rate against its history, metabolic roll-off, pre-backlog, win rate, pass-through mix; questions from Baird, TD Cowen, Leerink, Jefferies and others
    The business environment was strong in Q2 26. Cancellations were well behaved, and supported a record quarter for net bookings.
    backsC05C10C11C12C17C40C44
  6. S06primarytranscript2026-04-23
    Medpace Q1 2026 earnings call transcript
    Q1 2026 cancellations, book-to-bill of 0.88, RFPs, concentration and the president's departure
    Quarter 1 of 2026 saw cancellations rise again with backlog cancels reaching their highest point in over a year.
    backsC05C09C43
  7. S07primarycompany filing2026-04-01
    leaders, beneficial ownership, bonus design and pay
    backsC29C43C46
  8. S08primarycompany filing2026-09-28
    the founder's holding after his August and September sales, and their prices
    backsC27
  9. S09secondaryvendor data2026-10-10
    Research pack, frozen 2026-10-10 (FMP market data, filed cohort, FINRA short interest)
    daily closes, the price decomposition, analyst estimates and split, short interest, earnings history, cohort multiples, headcount
    backsC09C22C23C24C25C26C41C42C44
  10. S10primaryindustry data2024-08-01
    what a day of trial delay costs a sponsor, in sales and in direct costs
    At this time, the value of a single day of delay is worth approximately $800,000 in unrealized or lost prescription drug sales and $40,000 in direct daily clinical trial costs. ... Phase III clinical trials had the highest direct cost per day at $55,716.
    backsC33
  11. S11primarygovernment data2026-10-10
    how many industry trials of the kind Medpace runs started each year
    AREA[LeadSponsorClass]INDUSTRY AND AREA[Phase](PHASE2 OR PHASE3) ... totalCount 2345 (2022), 2231 (2023), 2104 (2024), 2185 (2025)
    backsC35
  12. S12primaryindustry data2026-05-01
    funding, R&D spending and trial starts across the industry in 2025
    Biopharma funding and large pharma R&D expenditure slowed, but remained well-above pre-pandemic levels.
    backsC36
  13. S13primarycompany filing2026-02-13
    the largest rival's clinical trial revenue and growth
    Research & Development Solutions’ revenues were $8,896 million in 2025, an increase of $369 million, or 4.3%
    backsC23C30
  14. S14primarycompany filing2026-02-26
    the second rival's revenue and growth
    Revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025 increased by $62.4 million, or 0.8%, to $8,251.3 million
    backsC23C31
  15. S15primarycompany filing2026-03-02
    a competitor's statement of the size of the clinical development market
    Phase I-IV clinical development spend by the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry is forecast to be ~$145 billion in 2026
    backsC37
  16. S16primarycompany filing2026-10-10
    open-market sales and purchases and the Rule 10b5-1 flag on each
    backsC27
  17. S20primarycompany filing2026-10-10
    five years of revenue, operating income, SG&A, stock pay, cash flow and diluted shares
    backsC18C19C21C23C41C45
  18. S21primarycompany filing2026-10-21
    Q3 revenue, net new awards, backlog, cash and the 2026 guidance.
    backsC10C14C20
  19. S22primarytranscript2026-10-22
    management's prepared remarks on awards, backlog conversion, customer concentration, cash and the updated guidance; and ten analysts' questions, which produced the cancellation reading, why 2027 is not guided, the Cincinnati cost, margin drivers, pass-through mix and the win-rate fixes. The vendor text garbles some names and phrases
    Our cancellations, backlog cancellations this quarter were not something to call out, but also not a help. They were toward the higher end, but within the kind of range we would expect.
    backsC05C10C40C47C48C49C50
Rendered from content/MEDP/thesis.json · thesis reviewed 2026-10-22. This page explains a company; it does not say what to pay, when to buy or how much.