← All thesesXYLNeutralMedium convictionTuesday 27 October 2026עברית

Xylem

The company behind the pumps, treatment plants and smart water meters many cities run on, with a growing side business running water systems for factories.

Our viewNeutral Medium conviction
The scores
The profile · 1-4
Growth2/4 ↓

Growth without acquisitions slowed from 5% in 2025 to 1% in Q2 2026 and 2% to 3% guided; most growth since 2021 was Evoqua, bought.

Business quality3/4 →

Installed meter networks keep utilities rebuying the brand, but Badger Meter and Itron compete for every new network and metering is shrinking now.

Financial position3/4 ↓

Net debt about 0.8 times EBITDA before the $1.5B Cornell notes; maturities spread to 2037, but debt is real, not trivial.

Execution record3/4 →

Beat earnings estimates seven of eight quarters and raised 2026 earnings guidance, but cut growth guidance and lost its finance chief mid-year.

Per share capture3/4 ↑

Evoqua in shares cut revenue per share growth to 29% against 74%; buybacks now shrink the count and deals are cash.

Potential2/4 →

The upside rests on utilities' spending, flat this year, and electric projects resuming; the committed backlog and Dow contract mostly sustain today.

Risk profile3/4 →

No customer above 5% and wide geography, but metering relies on FCC-licensed spectrum and utility budgets set by rates and federal loans.

Valuation3/4 ↑

12.4 times trailing adjusted EBITDA and 18.3 times 2026 earnings pay for today plus slow growth; not cheap at a 4% cash yield.

Evidence quality3/4 →

Results, debt and backlog are filed and the lock-in is a city's own record; the growth recovery rests on management's word.

The bet · 2-3 years
Safe, little upside1.1×

If it works 1.1× · if it fails you keep about 99%.

The Verdict

We rate Xylem Neutral. The business is mixed: cities that install its meters tend to keep buying them, and it keeps more of each sale every year, but its growth without acquisitions has stalled at about zero. The price is fair: after a 31% fall, about 12 times its yearly earnings before interest, tax and depreciation is about right for today's business and slow growth, with nothing paid for a recovery. As a bet it is defensive: water for chip plants and data centres would add little to the whole if it works, and almost nothing is lost if it fails.

The long caseChip plants and AI data centres need clean and recycled water where it is short, and Xylem can treat, pump and run it for them.

The evidence under this - 7 claims
C01facthigh confidence
Xylem reports four segments. In 2025 Water Infrastructure, pumps and treatment for moving and cleaning water, earned $2,636M; Applied Water, pumps and valves for buildings and industry, $1,849M; Measurement and Control Solutions, smart meters, networks and software, $2,086M; and Water Solutions and Services, treatment systems, outsourced water and services, $2,464M. It sells in about 150 countries, 42% outside the US, and no customer exceeded 5% of revenue.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-10
C23inferencemedium confidence
Xylem's meters are hard to dislodge once installed: a utility's meters are read over Sensus's own radio network into its billing system, so replacements usually come from the same brand, as Albany's sole-source award shows, and the 10-K counts an installed base that brings steady parts, replacement and service revenue.
against this
  • The same lock-in protects whichever vendor is installed: Badger Meter and Itron compete for the same utilities (C15), and searches found Badger Meter sole-source awards in other cities.
  • Measurement and Control Solutions orders were below revenue in Q2 2026 and its revenue fell 1% organically (C04), so new wins are not outrunning the base.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-10
C05management claimmedium confidence
In October 2026 Xylem cut 2026 organic growth guidance to flat from 2% to 3% (in July it had cut it from 2% to 4%), and now expects revenue of about $8.95B, down 1% reported, against about $9.2B before. It cut adjusted earnings guidance to $5.40 to $5.45 a share from $5.55 to $5.70, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of about 23.2% and free cash flow of about 10.2% of revenue.
against this

Consensus already sits at $5.66 a share for 2026, inside the range, so the raise moved estimates little; the cut fell on the revenue line the growth case needs.

  1. 2026-10-27editedRe-struck on the Q3 2026 release: organic growth guidance cut to flat and earnings guidance cut to $5.40-$5.45.
forwardwritten 2026-10-10
C34inferencemedium confidence
Growth has widened the margin: from 2021 to the trailing year gross profit rose from 38.0% to 39.2% of revenue and operating income from 11.3% to 14.5%, with research spending flat near $227M and stock pay near $53M, while price rises and the 80/20 simplification lifted the adjusted EBITDA margin 1.5 points in Q2 2026. The Q3 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin was 23.9%, up 0.7 points.
against this

Much of the recent gain is price rises and pruning rather than volume: Q2 2026's margin rose 1.5 points on revenue up only 1%, and price rises cannot compound for ever.

  1. 2026-10-27editedQ3 2026 margin of 23.9% added; margin kept widening on price and productivity.
historical · FY 2021 to June 2026written 2026-10-10
C26inferencemedium confidence
At $102.71, 233.5M shares are worth about $23,981M; with $1,650M of net debt the business is valued at about $25,631M: 12.4 times trailing adjusted EBITDA of $2,065M, 19.1 times trailing adjusted earnings of $5.37 a share, 18.3 times the 2026 guidance midpoint, and a free cash flow yield of 4.0%.
against this

Adjusted EBITDA leaves out $53M a year of stock pay and restructuring charges that recur, and the Cornell debt adds about $1.5B; on GAAP earnings the multiple is 24.5.

current state · 2026-10-09written 2026-10-10
C24facthigh confidence
Xylem closed at $102.71 on 9 October 2026, 30.7% lower than a year earlier and near the bottom of a 52-week range of $98.58 to $154.27. Sales per share rose 7.8% over the year while the price paid for each dollar of sales fell 35.7%. Badger Meter fell 26.7%, Itron 32.9% and Pentair 53.1% while the S&P 500 fund rose 15.7%.
current state · 2026-10-09written 2026-10-10
C19management claimmedium confidence
Management expects data-centre revenue to rise about 200% in 2026 and to be about 2% of revenue by the year end; Applied Water's data-centre orders rose over 300% in Q2 2026. China fell to about 2% of 2026 sales from about 3%.
against this

Only about 2% of revenue: tripling a small base adds little to a company growing 2% to 3% overall.

forwardwritten 2026-10-10
01

The company

Every town needs to pump clean water to homes, carry sewage away and charge each household for what it used. Xylem makes much of the equipment for that: Flygt pumps, treatment systems and Sensus smart meters that report use by radio instead of a person reading a dial.

Its other big arm, from the Evoqua purchase, runs water systems for factories, chip plants and power stations, sometimes building and operating the whole plant for decades. It sells in about 150 countries; no customer is more than 5% of sales.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C01facthigh confidence
Xylem reports four segments. In 2025 Water Infrastructure, pumps and treatment for moving and cleaning water, earned $2,636M; Applied Water, pumps and valves for buildings and industry, $1,849M; Measurement and Control Solutions, smart meters, networks and software, $2,086M; and Water Solutions and Services, treatment systems, outsourced water and services, $2,464M. It sells in about 150 countries, 42% outside the US, and no customer exceeded 5% of revenue.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-10
C13facthigh confidence
Measurement and Control Solutions sells water, gas and electric meters, the two-way radio networks that read them and analytics software, under the Sensus and Xylem Vue names. Smart metering was 83% of its 2025 revenue and analytics 17%. The network runs frequently on FCC-licensed spectrum, mostly in the 900MHz range, and segment revenue rose 11.5% in 2025 to $2,086M.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-10
C17facthigh confidence
Water Solutions and Services sells treatment systems and services to industrial customers such as life sciences, microelectronics, food and beverage, chemicals and power, and to cities: outsourced water, recycling and reuse, rental water and dewatering. It earned $2,464M in 2025, 59% from capital equipment and other and 41% from services.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-10

How it makes money

Most money comes from selling equipment: a pump, a treatment line, a batch of meters. A growing slice is recurring: parts and service on what is already installed, meter-reading software, and long contracts where a factory pays for water delivered.

In the year to June 2026 the business turned about $960M of its $9.13B of sales into free cash flow, the cash left after paying for its own factories and equipment.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C01facthigh confidence
Xylem reports four segments. In 2025 Water Infrastructure, pumps and treatment for moving and cleaning water, earned $2,636M; Applied Water, pumps and valves for buildings and industry, $1,849M; Measurement and Control Solutions, smart meters, networks and software, $2,086M; and Water Solutions and Services, treatment systems, outsourced water and services, $2,464M. It sells in about 150 countries, 42% outside the US, and no customer exceeded 5% of revenue.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-10
C13facthigh confidence
Measurement and Control Solutions sells water, gas and electric meters, the two-way radio networks that read them and analytics software, under the Sensus and Xylem Vue names. Smart metering was 83% of its 2025 revenue and analytics 17%. The network runs frequently on FCC-licensed spectrum, mostly in the 900MHz range, and segment revenue rose 11.5% in 2025 to $2,086M.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-10
C17facthigh confidence
Water Solutions and Services sells treatment systems and services to industrial customers such as life sciences, microelectronics, food and beverage, chemicals and power, and to cities: outsourced water, recycling and reuse, rental water and dewatering. It earned $2,464M in 2025, 59% from capital equipment and other and 41% from services.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-10
C35facthigh confidence
In the year to June 2026 operating cash flow was $1,301M and capital spending $341M, leaving about $960M of free cash flow, 10.5% of revenue; stock pay was $53M.
historical · year to June 2026written 2026-10-10
Where the money comes from, stream by stream
StreamShare of sales (FY 2025)How it earns it
Water Infrastructure29.2%Pumps and treatment for moving and cleaning water, 59% transport and 41% treatment.
Water Solutions and Services27.3%Treatment systems, outsourced water, rental and dewatering for industry and cities, 41% services.
Measurement and Control Solutions23.1%Smart meters and networks, 83%, and analytics software, 17%, for water, gas and electric utilities.
Applied Water20.5%Pumps, valves and controls for buildings, homes and light industry.

Who runs it

Matthew Pine has run Xylem since January 2024. He has pruned weaker products and sold over $400M of businesses, and margins rose, while growth slowed. He owns 299,154 shares; directors and officers together hold under 1%.

His bonus rides on margins, growth and cash, and half his long-term award on shareholder returns against other industrial companies and on earnings per share. The finance chief left in September 2026 for another job; a director bought shares in May.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C29facthigh confidence
Matthew Pine has been chief executive since January 2024 and owns 299,154 shares; directors and officers together own 786,605, under 1% of 242,748,449 shares. Vanguard holds about 11.6% and BlackRock 10.0%.
current state · 2026-03-30written 2026-10-10
C30facthigh confidence
The annual bonus pays 100% on adjusted EBITDA margin, organic revenue and adjusted free cash flow margin. Long-term awards are 50% performance shares, half on three-year return against the S&P 500 Industrials and half on cumulative adjusted earnings per share, 25% options and 25% restricted shares.
current state · 2026-03-30written 2026-10-10
C31facthigh confidence
Chief financial officer William Grogan left in September 2026 for another job; Andrea van der Berg, finance head of Water Infrastructure and formerly 13 years at Honeywell, took over on 1 September. Carlisle's chief executive, Christian Koch, joined the board in August.
historical · August to September 2026written 2026-10-10
C28facthigh confidence
In the year to October 2026 insiders made one open-market purchase, a director's 1,210 shares at $116.61 in May 2026, and three open-market sales of 16,390 shares in all, at $117.46 to $152.64; none of the four was under a pre-arranged trading plan.
historical · October 2025 to October 2026written 2026-10-10
02

Why it wins, and who could beat it

Why customers come back

The hold is in the meters. Each city's meters report over Xylem's own radio network into its billing system, so buying a different brand later means running two systems side by side.

A city's own record shows it. Albany, Oregon, with over 20,000 meters, skipped a competitive bid and signed a five-year contract for Sensus meters, saying one consistent brand was the efficient choice.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C13facthigh confidence
Measurement and Control Solutions sells water, gas and electric meters, the two-way radio networks that read them and analytics software, under the Sensus and Xylem Vue names. Smart metering was 83% of its 2025 revenue and analytics 17%. The network runs frequently on FCC-licensed spectrum, mostly in the 900MHz range, and segment revenue rose 11.5% in 2025 to $2,086M.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-10
C14factmedium confidence
The City of Albany, Oregon, which has over 20,000 water meters and budgets over $200,000 a year to replace or install them, waived competitive bidding and authorised a five-year sole-source contract for Sensus meters, finding that keeping one meter brand was the efficient use of its existing equipment.
current state · 2023-06-29written 2026-10-10
C23inferencemedium confidence
Xylem's meters are hard to dislodge once installed: a utility's meters are read over Sensus's own radio network into its billing system, so replacements usually come from the same brand, as Albany's sole-source award shows, and the 10-K counts an installed base that brings steady parts, replacement and service revenue.
against this
  • The same lock-in protects whichever vendor is installed: Badger Meter and Itron compete for the same utilities (C15), and searches found Badger Meter sole-source awards in other cities.
  • Measurement and Control Solutions orders were below revenue in Q2 2026 and its revenue fell 1% organically (C04), so new wins are not outrunning the base.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-10

The threat

The same lock-in protects rivals where they are installed. Badger Meter and Itron name Xylem as a competitor and bid for every new city network. In pumps, Franklin Electric and the private Danish firm Grundfos compete for the same buyers. In chip-plant water, Ecolab paid $1.6B in December 2025 for Ovivo's ultrapure water business.

The evidence under this - 2 claims
C15facthigh confidence
Rivals name Xylem in their own annual reports: Badger Meter lists Sensus (Xylem) among its utility water competitors, Itron lists Xylem among its primary competitors, and Franklin Electric names Xylem with Grundfos and Pentair as its principal water pump competitors.
current state · 2026-02-20written 2026-10-10
C16facthigh confidence
Ecolab bought Ovivo's electronics business, an ultrapure water supplier to chip plants, for $1.6B in cash on 16 December 2025, adding a large rival in the industrial water Xylem's services arm sells to chipmakers.
historical · December 2025written 2026-10-10

The rivals: BMI, ITRI, FELE, ECL, ECL, MWA, and 2 more that are private, in-house or listed abroad.

Who else does this, rival by rival
TickerRivalWhere it competesHow far alongPriced against it
BMIBadger MeterPriced against it: YesMeasurement and Control SolutionsOn saleYes
ITRIItronPriced against it: YesMeasurement and Control SolutionsOn saleYes
FELEFranklin ElectricPriced against it: YesApplied WaterOn saleYes
PrivateGrundfosPriced against it: PrivateWater InfrastructureOn salePrivate
ECLEcolab, through Ovivo ElectronicsPriced against it: One segment onlyWater Solutions and ServicesOn saleOne segment only
Ecolab, through Ovivo Electronics and its high-tech water treatmentChip-plant and data-centre waterOn sale
Veolia, targeting over €1 billion from data centres and chip plants by 2030Priced against it: Listed abroadChip-plant and data-centre waterOn saleListed abroad
MWAMueller Water ProductsPriced against it: One segment only-On saleOne segment only
03

How big it could get

How big this could get

America spends about $90.6B a year building water supply and sewer systems, and the EPA counts about $1.26 trillion of needed work over 20 years. Xylem's own US sales were about $5.2B in 2025.

That spending rose about a quarter from 2023 to 2026 but barely grew in the last year. Nobody publishes how much of it goes on equipment rather than pipes and digging, so Xylem's share cannot be measured.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C01facthigh confidence
Xylem reports four segments. In 2025 Water Infrastructure, pumps and treatment for moving and cleaning water, earned $2,636M; Applied Water, pumps and valves for buildings and industry, $1,849M; Measurement and Control Solutions, smart meters, networks and software, $2,086M; and Water Solutions and Services, treatment systems, outsourced water and services, $2,464M. It sells in about 150 countries, 42% outside the US, and no customer exceeded 5% of revenue.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-10
C20facthigh confidence
The EPA estimates that US drinking water systems need $625 billion over 20 years for pipes, treatment plants and storage, and its 2022 survey puts wastewater and stormwater needs at $630.1 billion.
current state · 2024-04-01written 2026-10-10
C21facthigh confidence
US construction spending on water supply ran at $36.8B a year in August 2026, against $36.3B a year earlier and $28.1B in August 2023; spending on sewage and waste disposal ran at $53.8B, against $53.4B and $43.9B. Both rose about a quarter in three years and under 1.5% in the last one.
historical · August 2023 to August 2026written 2026-10-10

Who has signed

Orders on hand reached $5.3B in June 2026. The largest single piece is Dow's contract, about $850M over 23 years, mostly for running the plant, with water flowing from 2028. Multi-year orders can still be delayed or cancelled. Xylem has also agreed to buy two pump makers for $1.46B.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C03facthigh confidence
In Q2 2026 orders rose 42% to $3,086M, 41% organically, while revenue rose 2% to $2,336M and only 1% organically. Earnings were $1.11 a share, $1.46 adjusted, and the adjusted EBITDA margin rose 1.5 points to 23.3%. Backlog reached $5,315M, up 5.9% on a year.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-10
C18management claimmedium confidence
Management says the April 2026 Dow order, about $850M over 23 years, is Xylem's largest contract ever, about 75% services and 25% equipment; about 10% is recognised in 2026, the plant is built in 2027 and water flows from 2028. It also won a 20-year contract from a large chemical company over the incumbent, and work for a large lithium battery maker.
against this

The 10-Q warns that annual or multi-year contracts can be rescheduled or cancelled by customers, and the Dow plant earns its service revenue only from 2028.

forwardwritten 2026-10-10
C10facthigh confidence
Xylem agreed on 11 August 2026 to buy the Cornell Pump and Roper Pump businesses from Indicor for about $1.46B in cash, closing in Q4 2026. They are expected to earn more than $260M of revenue in 2026 at EBITDA margins above 30%; Xylem puts the price at 11.6 times 2026 EBITDA after $23M of cost savings and $170M of tax benefits.
current state · 2026-09-15written 2026-10-10
04

The results

The numbers

Is it growing?Slow

Sales grew 1.9% over the twelve months to Sep 2026, about the same pace as the 5.5% in the year to Dec 2025.

Dec 2021: $5.20BDec 2022: $5.52BDec 2023: $7.36BDec 2024: $8.56BDec 2025: $9.04B12 mo to Sep 2026: $9.06B$5.20B$9.06B
Is it profitable?Healthy

Operating margin is 15%, up from 8.9% in the year to Dec 2023.

Dec 2021: 11%Dec 2022: 11%Dec 2023: 8.9%Dec 2024: 12%Dec 2025: 14%12 mo to Sep 2026: 15%11%15%
Does growth pay off?Pays off

Running costs take 25¢ of each sales dollar, down from 27¢ in the year to Dec 2021.

Dec 2021: 27¢Dec 2022: 26¢Dec 2023: 28¢Dec 2024: 26¢Dec 2025: 25¢12 mo to Sep 2026: 25¢27¢25¢
Does it earn good returns?Decent

Shareholders' money earned 10% a year.

Dec 2021: 14%Dec 2022: 11%Dec 2023: 8.9%Dec 2024: 8.6%Dec 2025: 8.7%12 mo to Sep 2026: 10%14%10%
Is it making cash?Solid

It turned 10% of sales into free cash, $921M over the last twelve months.

Dec 2021: $330MDec 2022: $388MDec 2023: $566MDec 2024: $942MDec 2025: $910M12 mo to Sep 2026: $921M$330M$921M
Is the balance sheet safe?Light debt

It owes $2.19B more than the cash it holds, about 1.7 years of the cash its operations bring in.

Dec 2021: −$1.09BDec 2022: −$936MDec 2023: −$1.26BDec 2024: −$895MDec 2025: −$463M12 mo to Sep 2026: −$2.19B−$1.09B−$2.19B
Are shares being diluted?Diluting

The share count rose 28% in 4.8 years, and pay in shares costs 0.6% of sales.

Dec 2021: 182MDec 2022: 181MDec 2023: 218MDec 2024: 244MDec 2025: 244M12 mo to Sep 2026: 233M182M233M
All the numbers

Filed figures from the company's 10-K and 10-Q, read 2026-10-27. Fiscal years end in December.

Dec 2021Dec 2022Dec 2023Dec 2024Dec 202512 mo to Sep 2026
Size and growth
Sales$5.20B$5.52B$7.36B$8.56B$9.04B$9.06B
Sales growth+6.5%+6.3%+33%+16%+5.5%+1.9%
Profit
Gross margin38%38%37%38%38%40%
Operating margin11%11%8.9%12%14%15%
Net margin8.2%6.4%8.3%10%11%12%
What growth costs, per sales dollar
Research and development3.9%3.7%3.2%2.7%2.5%2.5%
Selling, general and admin23%22%24%22%21%21%
Pay in shares0.6%0.7%0.8%0.7%0.6%0.6%
Capital spending4.0%3.8%3.7%3.7%3.7%3.9%
Cash
Cash from operations$538M$596M$837M$1.26B$1.24B$1.27B
Free cash flow$330M$388M$566M$942M$910M$921M
Balance sheet
Cash and short-term investments$1.35B$944M$1.02B$1.12B$1.48B$708M
Debt$2.44B$1.88B$2.28B$2.02B$1.94B$2.90B
Net cash−$1.09B−$936M−$1.26B−$895M−$463M−$2.19B
Returns and shares
Return on capital8.3%9.1%7.0%6.6%7.5%-
Shares (diluted)182M181M218M244M244M233M

What growth costs

Growing has made Xylem more profitable: it keeps more of each sale than five years ago, while research spending and pay in shares stayed flat. Lately the gain has come from price rises and cutting weak products rather than selling more, and that cannot continue for ever.

The evidence under this - 2 claims
C34inferencemedium confidence
Growth has widened the margin: from 2021 to the trailing year gross profit rose from 38.0% to 39.2% of revenue and operating income from 11.3% to 14.5%, with research spending flat near $227M and stock pay near $53M, while price rises and the 80/20 simplification lifted the adjusted EBITDA margin 1.5 points in Q2 2026. The Q3 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin was 23.9%, up 0.7 points.
against this

Much of the recent gain is price rises and pruning rather than volume: Q2 2026's margin rose 1.5 points on revenue up only 1%, and price rises cannot compound for ever.

  1. 2026-10-27editedQ3 2026 margin of 23.9% added; margin kept widening on price and productivity.
historical · FY 2021 to June 2026written 2026-10-10
C06facthigh confidence
Filed revenue grew from $4,876M in 2020 and $5,195M in 2021 to $9,035M in 2025 and $9,126M in the year to June 2026. Operating income rose from $585M in 2021 to $1,223M in 2025 and $1,321M in the trailing year, so the operating margin went from 11.3% to 14.5%; net income rose from $427M to $1,018M.
historical · FY 2020 to June 2026written 2026-10-10

The last report (28 Jul)

Quarter ended June 2026, filed figures.

2%
Sales growth
against the same quarter a year earlier
9.9%
Growth from the quarter before
against -11.3% the quarter before that
17¢
Operating profit
per dollar of sales

In the September quarter orders rose 10% without acquisitions, but revenue was flat without acquisitions against the 3% promised. Adjusted earnings were $1.44 a share, in the promised range, and the profit margin rose to 23.9%.

Xylem cut its 2026 forecast to flat growth and $5.40 to $5.45 a share and plans to sell two businesses. On the call, managers blamed utilities delaying meter and plant projects; data-centre orders tripled.

What it did to the thesisIt pressured our case: growth missed and the forecast was cut again. The call blamed delayed projects, not lost customers, so the view stays Neutral until growth returns.

The quarter in detail

Sales growth from the previous quarter, filed figures.

Earnings per share $1.46 against $1.35 expected; $1.11 as filed, the gap being what the company adds back.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C43facthigh confidence
Xylem's Q3 2026 results: orders $2.3B, up 7% reported and 10% organically; revenue $2.2B, down 3% reported and flat organically; earnings per share $1.25, $1.44 adjusted, up 5%; adjusted EBITDA margin 23.9%. Xylem announced its intent to divest Applied Water International and Specialty Flow Control and, from January 1, 2027, to report three segments: Treatment and Services, Flow Solutions, and Measurement and Analytics.
current state · 2026-09-30written 2026-10-27
C36management claimmedium confidence
For Q3 2026 Xylem had guided revenue flat on a year and up about 3% organically, an adjusted EBITDA margin of 23.5% to 24% and adjusted earnings of $1.42 to $1.47 a share. It reported revenue down 3% reported and flat organically, a 23.9% margin and $1.44 adjusted, so the margin and earnings landed in range and organic growth missed the guide.
against this

Q2 2026 grew only 1% without acquisitions, so 3% in Q3 needs a pick-up that further metering delays could stop.

  1. 2026-10-27editedQ3 2026 result recorded against the guide: margin and earnings in range, organic growth flat against about 3%.
forwardwritten 2026-10-10
C05management claimmedium confidence
In October 2026 Xylem cut 2026 organic growth guidance to flat from 2% to 3% (in July it had cut it from 2% to 4%), and now expects revenue of about $8.95B, down 1% reported, against about $9.2B before. It cut adjusted earnings guidance to $5.40 to $5.45 a share from $5.55 to $5.70, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of about 23.2% and free cash flow of about 10.2% of revenue.
against this

Consensus already sits at $5.66 a share for 2026, inside the range, so the raise moved estimates little; the cut fell on the revenue line the growth case needs.

  1. 2026-10-27editedRe-struck on the Q3 2026 release: organic growth guidance cut to flat and earnings guidance cut to $5.40-$5.45.
forwardwritten 2026-10-10
C34inferencemedium confidence
Growth has widened the margin: from 2021 to the trailing year gross profit rose from 38.0% to 39.2% of revenue and operating income from 11.3% to 14.5%, with research spending flat near $227M and stock pay near $53M, while price rises and the 80/20 simplification lifted the adjusted EBITDA margin 1.5 points in Q2 2026. The Q3 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin was 23.9%, up 0.7 points.
against this

Much of the recent gain is price rises and pruning rather than volume: Q2 2026's margin rose 1.5 points on revenue up only 1%, and price rises cannot compound for ever.

  1. 2026-10-27editedQ3 2026 margin of 23.9% added; margin kept widening on price and productivity.
historical · FY 2021 to June 2026written 2026-10-10
C44management claimmedium confidence
On the Q3 2026 call management said Measurement and Control Solutions orders rose 30% on large water projects dated end-2027 into 2028 while its backlog is still down on the year and water-meter backlog is up 13%; short-cycle meter sales are softer, so segment revenue should run near Q3 and Q4 levels into the first half of 2027. Water Solutions and Services' Q4 outlook fell to low single-digit growth from high single digits as large projects slipped. Applied Water data-centre orders rose 200%, expected near 2% of revenue by year end. The two businesses to be sold are 9% of revenue and under 5% of EBITDA, and dilute margin; proceeds come at the end of 2027 or later. The 80/20 headwind to sales should be 0.5 to 1 point in 2027, from about 2.
against this

Orders up 30% in metering and 10% overall have not yet become revenue, and Water Infrastructure orders were described by an analyst as flat to down for the year; the company's own filed revenue fell 3% in Q3.

current state · 2026-10-27written 2026-10-27
What management did with the money

Xylem paid for Evoqua in 2023 with new shares, which is why each share's slice of revenue grew far less than revenue. It has now turned to buying shares back: $1.24B in the first half of 2026. Its next purchase, two pump makers for $1.46B, is paid in cash borrowed through new bonds.

Insiders in 2026Q3: 5 purchases and 0 sales, from their Form 4 filings.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C08facthigh confidence
In the first half of 2026 Xylem bought back $1,243M of its shares, about 10.5M, under a $1.5B programme authorised in February 2026 with $453M left at 30 June. It raised the quarterly dividend 8% to $0.43.
historical · H1 2026written 2026-10-10
C07facthigh confidence
Diluted shares rose from 181.5M in 2021 to 218.2M in 2023, when Xylem paid for Evoqua in its own shares, and 244.0M in 2025, then fell to 236.6M in Q2 2026 after buybacks; 233,486,812 shares were outstanding on 24 July 2026. Revenue per diluted share rose 29% from 2021 to 2025 while revenue rose 74%.
historical · FY 2021 to Q2 2026written 2026-10-10
C10facthigh confidence
Xylem agreed on 11 August 2026 to buy the Cornell Pump and Roper Pump businesses from Indicor for about $1.46B in cash, closing in Q4 2026. They are expected to earn more than $260M of revenue in 2026 at EBITDA margins above 30%; Xylem puts the price at 11.6 times 2026 EBITDA after $23M of cost savings and $170M of tax benefits.
current state · 2026-09-15written 2026-10-10
C09facthigh confidence
At 30 June 2026 Xylem held $1,276M of cash against $2,926M of debt, of which $531M is due within a year, including $500M of notes maturing in November 2026; management put net debt at 0.8 times adjusted EBITDA. In September it sold $1.5B of notes due 2029 to 2037 to pay for Cornell and Roper, lifting total debt to $4,426M as adjusted, and signed a new $1.5B revolving credit line.
current state · 2026-09-17written 2026-10-10
05

The price, and where we disagree

In short. Fair. The price pays for today's business, slow growth and margins edging up, but not for a return to faster growth.

Share price
$102.71
close,
Company value for each $1 of cash profit
13.7
rivals' middle 12.9 · its 6-year normal 25.4

The shares have fallen about 31% in a year, near their lowest, after the growth forecast was cut in July and again on October 27. The pump purchase should close by the end of the year.

The October 27 results missed the 3% growth test while orders rose 10%. On the call management put the gap down to utilities delaying projects and gave no 2027 growth figure, so the results due by late February 2027 show whether orders turn into sales.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C43facthigh confidence
Xylem's Q3 2026 results: orders $2.3B, up 7% reported and 10% organically; revenue $2.2B, down 3% reported and flat organically; earnings per share $1.25, $1.44 adjusted, up 5%; adjusted EBITDA margin 23.9%. Xylem announced its intent to divest Applied Water International and Specialty Flow Control and, from January 1, 2027, to report three segments: Treatment and Services, Flow Solutions, and Measurement and Analytics.
current state · 2026-09-30written 2026-10-27
C36management claimmedium confidence
For Q3 2026 Xylem had guided revenue flat on a year and up about 3% organically, an adjusted EBITDA margin of 23.5% to 24% and adjusted earnings of $1.42 to $1.47 a share. It reported revenue down 3% reported and flat organically, a 23.9% margin and $1.44 adjusted, so the margin and earnings landed in range and organic growth missed the guide.
against this

Q2 2026 grew only 1% without acquisitions, so 3% in Q3 needs a pick-up that further metering delays could stop.

  1. 2026-10-27editedQ3 2026 result recorded against the guide: margin and earnings in range, organic growth flat against about 3%.
forwardwritten 2026-10-10
C05management claimmedium confidence
In October 2026 Xylem cut 2026 organic growth guidance to flat from 2% to 3% (in July it had cut it from 2% to 4%), and now expects revenue of about $8.95B, down 1% reported, against about $9.2B before. It cut adjusted earnings guidance to $5.40 to $5.45 a share from $5.55 to $5.70, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of about 23.2% and free cash flow of about 10.2% of revenue.
against this

Consensus already sits at $5.66 a share for 2026, inside the range, so the raise moved estimates little; the cut fell on the revenue line the growth case needs.

  1. 2026-10-27editedRe-struck on the Q3 2026 release: organic growth guidance cut to flat and earnings guidance cut to $5.40-$5.45.
forwardwritten 2026-10-10
C10facthigh confidence
Xylem agreed on 11 August 2026 to buy the Cornell Pump and Roper Pump businesses from Indicor for about $1.46B in cash, closing in Q4 2026. They are expected to earn more than $260M of revenue in 2026 at EBITDA margins above 30%; Xylem puts the price at 11.6 times 2026 EBITDA after $23M of cost savings and $170M of tax benefits.
current state · 2026-09-15written 2026-10-10
C44management claimmedium confidence
On the Q3 2026 call management said Measurement and Control Solutions orders rose 30% on large water projects dated end-2027 into 2028 while its backlog is still down on the year and water-meter backlog is up 13%; short-cycle meter sales are softer, so segment revenue should run near Q3 and Q4 levels into the first half of 2027. Water Solutions and Services' Q4 outlook fell to low single-digit growth from high single digits as large projects slipped. Applied Water data-centre orders rose 200%, expected near 2% of revenue by year end. The two businesses to be sold are 9% of revenue and under 5% of EBITDA, and dilute margin; proceeds come at the end of 2027 or later. The 80/20 headwind to sales should be 0.5 to 1 point in 2027, from about 2.
against this

Orders up 30% in metering and 10% overall have not yet become revenue, and Water Infrastructure orders were described by an analyst as flat to down for the year; the company's own filed revenue fell 3% in Q3.

current state · 2026-10-27written 2026-10-27
The betSafe, little upside
If it works
1.1×
from today's value, at the stated multiple
If it fails
keep 99%
of today's market value: the rest of the company, less its debt
How we read the multiple

A buyer pays for a steady, slowly growing business. The fact the verdict rests on is that growth without acquisitions is 2% to 3%.

1. The shares are worth about $24.0B; with about $1.65B of net debt the business is valued at about $25.6B. 2. It earned $2.07B before interest, tax and depreciation over the past year, on its own measure. 3. So the business costs about 12 times those earnings. 4. Free cash flow was about $960M, about 4% of the shares' value.

Against its own history. Buyers now pay about half what they used to for each dollar of profit, because growth slowed; the old normal was set when growth was faster.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C26inferencemedium confidence
At $102.71, 233.5M shares are worth about $23,981M; with $1,650M of net debt the business is valued at about $25,631M: 12.4 times trailing adjusted EBITDA of $2,065M, 19.1 times trailing adjusted earnings of $5.37 a share, 18.3 times the 2026 guidance midpoint, and a free cash flow yield of 4.0%.
against this

Adjusted EBITDA leaves out $53M a year of stock pay and restructuring charges that recur, and the Cornell debt adds about $1.5B; on GAAP earnings the multiple is 24.5.

current state · 2026-10-09written 2026-10-10
C27factmedium confidence
The vendor's own series puts Xylem at 13.8 times GAAP EBITDA against a six-year median of 25.4, 24.5 times GAAP earnings against 45.6, 2.6 times sales against 3.6, and a 4.0% free cash flow yield against 2.5%.
current state · 2026-10-09written 2026-10-10
C35facthigh confidence
In the year to June 2026 operating cash flow was $1,301M and capital spending $341M, leaving about $960M of free cash flow, 10.5% of revenue; stock pay was $53M.
historical · year to June 2026written 2026-10-10
Priced against its rivals

The competitors its own annual report names, each confirmed against the rival's filing. Measured on company value for each $1 of cash profit, cheapest first:

TickerCompanycompany value for each $1 of cash profit
ITRIItron8.6×
FELEFranklin Electric12.9×
XYLXylem13.7×
BMIBadger Meter19.2×

The middle of the other 3 is 12.9. Xylem Inc. is 2nd dearest of 4.

Rivals' figures come from a data provider, so read the spread of the group rather than any single pair.

In the middle of its listed rivals, so the discount is to Xylem's own past rather than to the companies it competes with.

Private or foreign rivals that cannot be priced: Grundfos, Kamstrup, Veolia, Kurita and Organo.

The bet: what it pays if it works

This bet is on one line: the water Xylem treats, purifies and pumps for chip plants and AI data centres. Xylem reports no sales figure for it; management says data-centre sales are tripling this year.

The rest of Xylem is counted separately at the price the market pays for it today, and on its own it covers that price. So this line comes free, but even a big win adds only a little to the whole company, which makes it an expensive bet. Veolia and Ecolab chase the same work.

Chip-plant and data-centre water revenue in two to three yearsPoints of Xylem's 2025 revenue neededAt the stated multiple
$360.00Mabout 4 at 100% kept1.0×
$540.00M (the big win)about 6 at 100% kept1.1×
$900.00Mabout 10 at 100% kept1.1×

To pay 2× (a Fair bet) it would need about $9.26B of Chip-plant and data-centre water revenue (about 102 points of Xylem's 2025 revenue); to pay 5× (a Cheap bet), about $36.86B of Chip-plant and data-centre water revenue (about 408 points of Xylem's 2025 revenue), at the same multiple.

Each row is Chip-plant and data-centre water alone, plus the rest of the company (Xylem without chip-plant and data-centre water) counted at about $25.61B.

The steps it has to take

  • Done Data-centre orders in Applied Water up over 300% in Q2 2026
  • Done WaterFleet, with a hyperscale data-centre project in Texas, agreed to be bought
  • In progress Data-centre revenue near 2% of the total by the end of 2026 due 2027-02
  • Not started A filed revenue figure for data centres or microelectronics due 2027-12
  • Not started Chip-plant and data-centre revenue near six points of 2025 revenue due 2029-03
The detail behind the label
Rating
Expensive
the big win's payoff against the 2× and 5× lines
Cheap bet at about
≈ $15.61
85% below the price (close, )
The option
free
what Chip-plant and data-centre water is worth if it works, and the price pays nothing for it
The evidence under this - 5 claims
C19management claimmedium confidence
Management expects data-centre revenue to rise about 200% in 2026 and to be about 2% of revenue by the year end; Applied Water's data-centre orders rose over 300% in Q2 2026. China fell to about 2% of 2026 sales from about 3%.
against this

Only about 2% of revenue: tripling a small base adds little to a company growing 2% to 3% overall.

forwardwritten 2026-10-10
C38facthigh confidence
Xylem's 10-K names data centres among Applied Water's industrial customers and microelectronics among the verticals Water Solutions and Services sells to, but it states no revenue for either, and neither do the Q2 2026 10-Q or release.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-11
C26inferencemedium confidence
At $102.71, 233.5M shares are worth about $23,981M; with $1,650M of net debt the business is valued at about $25,631M: 12.4 times trailing adjusted EBITDA of $2,065M, 19.1 times trailing adjusted earnings of $5.37 a share, 18.3 times the 2026 guidance midpoint, and a free cash flow yield of 4.0%.
against this

Adjusted EBITDA leaves out $53M a year of stock pay and restructuring charges that recur, and the Cornell debt adds about $1.5B; on GAAP earnings the multiple is 24.5.

current state · 2026-10-09written 2026-10-10
C39management claimmedium confidence
Veolia, the largest listed water services company, targets over €1 billion a year of revenue from data centres and microelectronics by 2030.
against this

It is a rival's target for 2030 covering water, local energy and hazardous waste, not a measure of the market; nobody publishes what the two markets spend on water.

forwardwritten 2026-10-11
C16facthigh confidence
Ecolab bought Ovivo's electronics business, an ultrapure water supplier to chip plants, for $1.6B in cash on 16 December 2025, adding a large rival in the industrial water Xylem's services arm sells to chipmakers.
historical · December 2025written 2026-10-10

Where we disagree with the market

The market believes

Split: an AI and industrial water story that should restart growth, or a slowing utility supplier; 19 analysts say buy and 20 hold.

We believe

Both stories are small beside a sticky utility business growing 2% to 3% with rising margins, priced about right.

Data centres are real but about 2% of sales, so tripling them barely moves the total. Utility construction spending barely grew in the last year, which argues against a quick rebound.

Against us: the price is about half its six-year normal, orders and orders on hand are at records, and margins keep rising. If growth returns, today's price would look cheap.

What analysts say, and the evidence
Analysts positive
67%
of 21, 1 Oct
Four months earlier
67%
of 24, 1 Jun
The evidence under this - 6 claims
C25facthigh confidence
Of 40 analysts, 19 rate Xylem a buy, 20 a hold and 1 a sell; they expect adjusted earnings of $5.66 a share in 2026 and $6.21 in 2027, and the average price target set in the last month is 27.7% below the year's average. Short interest was 4.5% of the float on 30 September 2026, 4.0 days of trading.
current state · 2026-09-30written 2026-10-10
C19management claimmedium confidence
Management expects data-centre revenue to rise about 200% in 2026 and to be about 2% of revenue by the year end; Applied Water's data-centre orders rose over 300% in Q2 2026. China fell to about 2% of 2026 sales from about 3%.
against this

Only about 2% of revenue: tripling a small base adds little to a company growing 2% to 3% overall.

forwardwritten 2026-10-10
C05management claimmedium confidence
In October 2026 Xylem cut 2026 organic growth guidance to flat from 2% to 3% (in July it had cut it from 2% to 4%), and now expects revenue of about $8.95B, down 1% reported, against about $9.2B before. It cut adjusted earnings guidance to $5.40 to $5.45 a share from $5.55 to $5.70, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of about 23.2% and free cash flow of about 10.2% of revenue.
against this

Consensus already sits at $5.66 a share for 2026, inside the range, so the raise moved estimates little; the cut fell on the revenue line the growth case needs.

  1. 2026-10-27editedRe-struck on the Q3 2026 release: organic growth guidance cut to flat and earnings guidance cut to $5.40-$5.45.
forwardwritten 2026-10-10
C21facthigh confidence
US construction spending on water supply ran at $36.8B a year in August 2026, against $36.3B a year earlier and $28.1B in August 2023; spending on sewage and waste disposal ran at $53.8B, against $53.4B and $43.9B. Both rose about a quarter in three years and under 1.5% in the last one.
historical · August 2023 to August 2026written 2026-10-10
C27factmedium confidence
The vendor's own series puts Xylem at 13.8 times GAAP EBITDA against a six-year median of 25.4, 24.5 times GAAP earnings against 45.6, 2.6 times sales against 3.6, and a 4.0% free cash flow yield against 2.5%.
current state · 2026-10-09written 2026-10-10
C26inferencemedium confidence
At $102.71, 233.5M shares are worth about $23,981M; with $1,650M of net debt the business is valued at about $25,631M: 12.4 times trailing adjusted EBITDA of $2,065M, 19.1 times trailing adjusted earnings of $5.37 a share, 18.3 times the 2026 guidance midpoint, and a free cash flow yield of 4.0%.
against this

Adjusted EBITDA leaves out $53M a year of stock pay and restructuring charges that recur, and the Cornell debt adds about $1.5B; on GAAP earnings the multiple is 24.5.

current state · 2026-10-09written 2026-10-10
06

What could go wrong, and how we would know

The risks

  • Metering stays weak. Electric utilities delayed meter projects on affordability worries; if that spreads to water, the business with the strongest hold shrinks.
  • Paying up for pumps. Before promised savings and tax benefits, Xylem pays about 16.6 times the pump makers' profit, more than its own shares cost.
  • Rivals win the next networks. Lock-in protects whoever is installed; if Badger Meter or Itron win the new networks, Xylem's base stops growing.
  • City budgets flatten. Water and sewer construction barely grew in the last year, and utilities pay from rates and federal loans that politics can squeeze.
  • Spectrum rules. Its meter networks run mostly on licensed radio spectrum, and a regulator could change or decline to renew those licences.
The evidence under this - 6 claims
C32management claimmedium confidence
Management says electric utilities slowed smart meter projects on affordability worries and caution before elections, while water meter orders grew by double digits in Q1 and Q2 2026 and the water pipeline is up about 30% on a year. On the Q3 call it added that orders in the segment rose 30% on large projects due late 2027, while book-and-ship sales stayed soft.
against this

Measurement and Control Solutions orders were below revenue in the quarter (C04); a pipeline is not an order.

  1. 2026-10-27editedthe Q3 call: orders strong, short-cycle sales soft
current state · 2026-07-28written 2026-10-10
C04facthigh confidence
By segment in Q2 2026, revenue was Water Infrastructure $683M, up 3% organically; Applied Water $501M, up 3%; Measurement and Control Solutions $508M, down 6% reported and 1% organically, with its adjusted EBITDA margin down 2.0 points to 21.1%; and Water Solutions and Services $644M, up 1%. Water Solutions and Services orders were $1,449M against $577M a year earlier.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-10
C11inferencemedium confidence
Before the promised savings and tax benefits, Xylem is paying about 16.6 times the two businesses' own 2026 EBITDA of about $88M, more than the roughly 12.4 times the market now pays for Xylem itself.
against this

The tax benefit is real cash and the margin above 30% is higher than Xylem's own, so a higher multiple can still add to earnings per share, as Xylem says it will in 2027.

current state · 2026-09-15written 2026-10-10
C23inferencemedium confidence
Xylem's meters are hard to dislodge once installed: a utility's meters are read over Sensus's own radio network into its billing system, so replacements usually come from the same brand, as Albany's sole-source award shows, and the 10-K counts an installed base that brings steady parts, replacement and service revenue.
against this
  • The same lock-in protects whichever vendor is installed: Badger Meter and Itron compete for the same utilities (C15), and searches found Badger Meter sole-source awards in other cities.
  • Measurement and Control Solutions orders were below revenue in Q2 2026 and its revenue fell 1% organically (C04), so new wins are not outrunning the base.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-10
C21facthigh confidence
US construction spending on water supply ran at $36.8B a year in August 2026, against $36.3B a year earlier and $28.1B in August 2023; spending on sewage and waste disposal ran at $53.8B, against $53.4B and $43.9B. Both rose about a quarter in three years and under 1.5% in the last one.
historical · August 2023 to August 2026written 2026-10-10
C13facthigh confidence
Measurement and Control Solutions sells water, gas and electric meters, the two-way radio networks that read them and analytics software, under the Sensus and Xylem Vue names. Smart metering was 83% of its 2025 revenue and analytics 17%. The network runs frequently on FCC-licensed spectrum, mostly in the 900MHz range, and segment revenue rose 11.5% in 2025 to $2,086M.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-10
What we still do not know
  • What share of US water meters are already smart, and how much replacement is left?
  • How much of metering revenue is replacements on installed networks rather than new networks won?
  • What do the two pump makers earn before the savings and tax benefits Xylem counts?
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C22facthigh confidence
About 72% of US electric meters were smart meters, about 119 million, by the EIA's latest count; the EIA publishes no count of water or gas meters, so the share of water meters that are smart is not published.
current state · 2022-12-31written 2026-10-10
C13facthigh confidence
Measurement and Control Solutions sells water, gas and electric meters, the two-way radio networks that read them and analytics software, under the Sensus and Xylem Vue names. Smart metering was 83% of its 2025 revenue and analytics 17%. The network runs frequently on FCC-licensed spectrum, mostly in the 900MHz range, and segment revenue rose 11.5% in 2025 to $2,086M.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-10
C11inferencemedium confidence
Before the promised savings and tax benefits, Xylem is paying about 16.6 times the two businesses' own 2026 EBITDA of about $88M, more than the roughly 12.4 times the market now pays for Xylem itself.
against this

The tax benefit is real cash and the margin above 30% is higher than Xylem's own, so a higher multiple can still add to earnings per share, as Xylem says it will in 2027.

current state · 2026-09-15written 2026-10-10

What would change our view

  1. Neutral→AttractiveA cheaper price on unchanged earnings

    It needs:

    • ○The business is valued at 10.5 times its yearly earnings before interest, tax and depreciation, from about 12.4 today.about ≈$86.97 today, 15% below the last close
  2. Neutral→AttractiveGrowth returns with margins intact

    It needs all of:

    • ○Revenue growth without acquisitions reaches 5% or more for two quarters in a row.checked at the next results, due by 28 Feb
    • ○Xylem keeps at least 23.5 cents of each sales dollar as those earnings.checked at the next results, due by 28 Feb
We would also be wrong if
  • Metering revenue falls for a full year as electric projects stay delayed.
  • Cities replace installed Sensus networks with rival brands in public bids.
  • US water and sewer construction spending falls for a full year.

What is coming

  • 27 October 2026 Q3 2026 results: Whether organic growth reaches the guided 3% and the margin 23.5%, and whether metering stops shrinking.
Every dated event ahead
  • 27 October 2026 Q3 2026 results: Whether organic growth reaches the guided 3% and the margin 23.5%, and whether metering stops shrinking.
  • 31 December 2026 Cornell and Roper purchase closes: The final price and debt, and the first reported earnings of the acquired pump businesses.
  • 10 February 2027 FY2026 results and 2027 guidance: Whether 2027 organic growth guidance returns to 4% or more as the Dow contract builds and meter projects resume.
Since we wrote this
Written
10 Oct
Price the thesis read
$102.71
9 Oct
  • 27 OctEarningsSales flat without acquisitions and forecast cut; view holdsOrganic growth missed the 3% guide and the 2026 forecast fell, but margin 23.9% and orders +10% held and two businesses are to be sold.
  • 11 OctThesis reviewChip-plant and data-centre water lifted out as early, and bet onThe owner's rule of 2026-10-11: a Futures winner declares the line each theory names it for, and an early line owes a bet that cannot be declined.
  • 10 OctThesis writtenNeutral, medium convictionWritten two weeks before Q3 results, after the shares fell 31% in a year on slower growth, a finance chief's exit and a pump purchase.

Sources 31

Where this came from

Sources - 31

Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.

  1. S01primarycompany filing2026-02-25
    the four segments and their 2025 revenue, the products, the installed base, the FCC spectrum, competition classes, customers, the Evoqua deal and the risk factors
    backsC01C07C13C17C23C38
  2. S02primarycompany release2026-02-10
    2025 revenue, organic growth and earnings per share, the dividend raise and the first 2026 guidance
    backsC02C08C12C26
  3. S03primarycompany release2026-07-28
    Q2 2026 orders, revenue, earnings and margin, revenue and orders by segment, and the revised 2026 guidance
    backsC02C03C04C05C12C26C34C38
  4. S04primarycompany filing2026-07-28
    the balance sheet, debt, share repurchases, the backlog of $5,315M and the definition of an order
    backsC03C07C08C09C17C18C26C38
  5. S05primarytranscript2026-07-28
    Xylem Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held 28 July 2026
    the Dow order, data-centre revenue and orders, the electric meter delays, China, Q3 guidance and net debt to EBITDA
    we expect revenue to be up 200% you know, this year, and we will probably be exiting this year about 2% of our revenue tied to data centers
    backsC04C05C09C18C19C32C36C37
  6. S06primarytranscript2026-04-28
    Xylem Q1 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held 28 April 2026
    the split and timing of the Dow outsourced water contract
    So out of the $850 million, it's about 75% service and 25% capital
    backsC18
  7. S07primarycompany filing2026-07-28
    six years and the trailing year of revenue, gross and operating profit, net income, cash flow, capital spending, stock pay and diluted shares
    backsC06C07C26C27C34C35
  8. S08primaryvendor data2026-10-09
    Research pack for XYL (FMP market tier, FINRA short interest), fetched 10 October 2026
    the 9 October close, the 52-week range and returns, the price move split, analyst ratings and estimates, the valuation series, peer returns, short interest and earnings history
    backsC12C24C25C26C27C33C36
  9. S09primarycompany filing2026-09-17
    the Cornell and Roper purchase price, the use of the note proceeds and the capitalization table as adjusted
    backsC09C10C11
  10. S10secondarycompany release2026-08-11
    the price, the revenue above $260M, the margin above 30%, the synergies and the tax benefit; Business Wire refuses this client and the newsroom page was not found
    The purchase price of $1.46 billion represents approximately 11.6x 2026 projected EBITDA after run-rate cost synergies of $23 million and an estimated $170 million of expected tax benefits.
    backsC10C11
  11. S11primarycompany filing2026-09-09
    the new five-year revolving credit facility
    backsC09
  12. S12primarycompany release2026-08-18
    the new chief financial officer from 1 September 2026 and William Grogan's departure
    backsC31
  13. S13primarycompany release2026-08-13
    the new director, Carlisle's chief executive
    backsC31
  14. S14primarycompany filing2026-03-30
    the leaders, ownership, the large holders, bonus measures and long-term awards
    backsC29C30
  15. S15primarycompany filing2026-10-10
    each open-market trade, its price and its Rule 10b5-1 flag
    backsC28
  16. S16primarycompany filing2026-02-17
    a rival naming Sensus (Xylem) among its utility water meter competitors
    backsC15
  17. S17primarycompany filing2026-02-17
    a rival naming Xylem among its primary metering competitors
    backsC15
  18. S18primarycompany filing2026-02-23
    Ecolab's $1.6B purchase of Ovivo's ultrapure water business for chip plants
    backsC16
  19. S19primaryregulator2023-04-04
    the 20-year capital need of US drinking water systems
    The survey determined that drinking water systems will need $625 billion for pipe replacement, treatment plant upgrades, storage tanks, and other key assets
    backsC20
  20. S20primaryregulator2024-04-01
    the 20-year capital need of US wastewater and stormwater systems
    2022 CWNS Results Total Reported Needs* $630.1 billion
    backsC20
  21. S21primarygovernment data2026-10-01
    monthly water supply construction spending at an annual rate, August 2023 to August 2026
    Total Construction Spending: Water Supply in the United States
    backsC21
  22. S22primarygovernment data2026-10-01
    monthly sewage and waste disposal construction spending at an annual rate
    Total Construction Spending: Sewage and Waste Disposal in the United States
    backsC21
  23. S23primarygovernment data2026-10-10
    the share of US electric meters that are smart, and that no agency counts water meters
    equal to about 72% of total electric meters installations
    backsC22
  24. S24primarygovernment data2023-06-29
    a utility buying replacement meters from the installed brand without a competitive bid; signed on the 28th, the PDF was created 29 June 2023
    for efficient utilization of the existing goods, maintaining a consistent brand water meter is in the best interest of the city
    backsC14C23
  25. S25primarycompany filing2026-02-20
    a pump rival naming Xylem with Grundfos and Pentair as its principal competitors
    backsC15
  26. S26primarycompany release2026-04-15
    a rival's revenue target from data centres and chip plants
    Veolia announces an ambitious plan to accelerate its footprint in the data centers industry and microelectronics, targeting over €1 billion in annual revenue from these two markets by 2030.
    backsC39
  27. S27primarycompany filing2026-02-23
    a rival's growth in water treatment for high-tech customers
    Light & Heavy organic sales increased 2% in 2025 reflecting double-digit growth in global high-tech
    backsC40
  28. S28primarycompany release2024-12-09
    a hyperscaler moving new designs to cooling that evaporates no water
    Starting August 2024, all new Microsoft datacenter designs began using this next-generation cooling technology, as we work to make zero-water evaporation the primary cooling method across our owned portfolio.
    backsC41
  29. S29primarygovernment data2026-07-31
    US data centres' direct water use in 2014 and 2023 and their share of US consumption
    One study estimates that in 2023, U.S. data centers directly used approximately 17 billion gallons of water, compared with 5.6 billion gallons in 2014.
    backsC42
  30. S30primarycompany filing2026-10-27
    Q3 2026 orders, revenue, organic growth, adjusted earnings and margin, the cut 2026 outlook and the planned divestitures and three-segment structure.
    backsC05C34C36C43
  31. S31primarytranscript2026-10-27
    management's account of the Q3 miss: metering and large-project timing, utility caution, the 2027 setup, data-centre orders, and the planned divestitures
    MCS orders up 30%, but the backlog is still down year-over-year; water metering within our backlog is up by 13%.
    backsC32C44
Rendered from content/XYL/thesis.json · thesis reviewed 2026-10-27. This page explains a company; it does not say what to pay, when to buy or how much.