← All thesesLYVNeutralMedium convictionSaturday 10 October 2026עברית

Live Nation Entertainment

The company behind most big concerts: it books the artist, often owns the venue, and through Ticketmaster sells the ticket and takes a fee.

Our viewNeutral Medium conviction
The scores
The profile · 1-4
Growth3/4 →

Adjusted operating income rose 10% in 2025 and fans 5%, but first-half 2026 grew 4.3% and US revenue has been flat for three years.

Business quality3/4 ↓

Ticketing earns 37% on exclusive contracts a jury found unlawful; promotion is easy to enter and earns 3.3%, and rivals attack resale.

Financial position3/4 →

$9.2B of debt against $2.4B of yearly adjusted operating income and $1.9B of its own cash; refinancing 2027 notes at higher rates.

Execution record3/4 →

Hit 102% of its 2025 profit target and grew double digits, but Q2 2026 Concerts profit fell 14% and the conduct led to a verdict.

Per share capture2/4 ↓

Diluted shares up 15% since 2020 with no buyback, minority partners take about $325M a year, and venue spending leaves little cash.

Potential2/4 →

US live spending of $57.3B grew 15.5% in real terms since 2019, but Live Nation's US revenue is flat and growth abroad is unmeasured.

Risk profile2/4 →

A court remedy could reshape the segment earning 42.5% of profit, and a 29.62% holder sits on the board.

Valuation2/4 →

20.3 times adjusted operating income needs about 10% yearly growth for ten years, management's plan, with nothing for the remedy.

Evidence quality3/4 →

Filed figures carry the numbers and the regulator states the verdict, but the remedy, ticket pace and resale share are management's or unknown.

The Verdict

We rate Live Nation neutral. The business is mixed: it is the world's biggest concert promoter, and its ticketing arm, Ticketmaster, earns rich margins, but a US jury found that ticketing grip an unlawful monopoly and the court has not yet decided the punishment. The price is full. At about 20 times its yearly profit before interest, buyers are paying for roughly 10% growth for a decade, which is what management promises, and nothing for a remedy aimed at the part of the company that earns over 40% of the profit. Growth now comes from abroad while US sales have stalled.

The long caseAs screens fill with cheap machine-made content, being in the room grows scarcer; the biggest promoter sells that room worldwide.

The evidence under this - 7 claims
C01facthigh confidence
Live Nation reports three segments: Concerts, Ticketing (Ticketmaster) and Sponsorship & Advertising. In 2025 it put on 55,000 events for 159 million fans, up from 151 million, with 11,000 artists, and owned, operated or booked 460 venues and 131 festivals.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-10
C04facthigh confidence
In 2025 Concerts earned $687.1M of adjusted operating income on $20.86B of revenue, a 3.3% margin; Ticketing $1,134.4M on $3.08B, 37%; Sponsorship $845.2M on $1.33B, 64%. Total adjusted operating income rose 10% to $2,366.4M.
against this

Adjusted operating income leaves out depreciation, stock pay, acquisition costs and the $450M legal accrual; reported operating income was $1,251.2M in 2025.

historical · FY2025written 2026-10-10
C05facthigh confidence
On 15 April 2026 a jury found that Ticketmaster unlawfully keeps a monopoly in ticketing at major concert venues, and that Live Nation holds a monopoly in large amphitheaters and unlawfully ties them to its promotion; remedies go to a separate bench trial.
against this
  • Post-trial motions were argued on 31 July 2026 and the company says it will appeal to the Second Circuit, so the verdict is not final.
  • The finding covers the United States; Ticketmaster sells by allocation rather than exclusive venue deals in most other markets (C03).
historical · 2026-04written 2026-10-10
C37inferencemedium confidence
The remedy decides the value of Ticketing, which earned 42.5% of the three segments' adjusted operating income in 2025, so the case is about the most profitable part of the company.
derivedTicketing $1,134.4M of $2,666.7M, the sum of Concerts $687.1M, Ticketing $1,134.4M and Sponsorship $845.2M (C04); the jury's findings are about ticketing and amphitheaters (C05).
against this
  • The settlement with the Justice Department already sets conduct and structural terms without a sale of Ticketmaster (C06), and the market rose 6.2% on it (C18).
  • Outside North America and Australia Ticketmaster mostly sells by allocation, which the US case does not reach (C03).
forwardwritten 2026-10-10
C15estimatemedium confidence
At $170.33 the enterprise value of about $49.14B is 20.3 times trailing adjusted operating income of $2,414.9M, and the $40.14B equity is 30.1 times company-defined free cash flow; at a 9% return that needs about 9.9% yearly growth for ten years.
derived235.63M shares at $170.33 is $40.14B; plus $9.20B debt, less $1.93B own cash, plus $1.74B minority stakes at book is $49.14B. Trailing adjusted operating income is 2025's $2,366.4M plus first-half 2026's $1,188.0M less $1,139.5M. Ten years at 9% with an exit at 18 times free cash flow; 11.5% at 15 times, 9.0% at 20 times.
against this
  • Management says it can compound double-digit growth for years (C08), which would cover the 9.9% needed.
  • Minority stakes at book value understate what partners' shares are worth, so the true multiple is higher.
forwardwritten 2026-10-10
C08management claimmedium confidence
Management guides 2026 to double-digit growth in adjusted operating income, Ticketmaster's up by a mid-single-digit percentage, fans up about 10%, capital spending about $1.1B and minority partners' share about $325M, and says it can compound double digits for years.
against this
  • First-half adjusted operating income grew only 4.3% (C09), so the year depends on the second half.
  • Concerts' adjusted operating income fell 14% in Q2 2026 (C10).
forwardwritten 2026-10-10
C11facthigh confidence
Revenue from the United States was $14,215.3M in 2023, $14,374.1M in 2024 and $14,329.4M in 2025, while revenue from abroad rose from $8,511.0M to $10,872.0M.
against this

Management says North America large-venue shows for 2026 were pacing up double digits in February (S02), so flat US revenue may not persist.

historical · FY2023-FY2025written 2026-10-10
01

The company

Live Nation does three things. It promotes concerts and festivals: it pays the artist, books the venue, often one it owns, and sells food, drink and parking on the night. In 2025 that was 55,000 events and 159 million fans.

It runs Ticketmaster, which sold 646 million tickets for 10,500 venues, teams and promoters. And it sells sponsorship, such as naming rights and signs, to brands that want to reach those fans.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C01facthigh confidence
Live Nation reports three segments: Concerts, Ticketing (Ticketmaster) and Sponsorship & Advertising. In 2025 it put on 55,000 events for 159 million fans, up from 151 million, with 11,000 artists, and owned, operated or booked 460 venues and 131 festivals.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-10
C02facthigh confidence
Ticketmaster distributed 646 million tickets for 10,500 clients in 2025 and sold 346 million fee-bearing tickets, up from 340 million; fee-bearing ticket value was $37.1B, up 6%, with concerts up 9% and other events down.
historical · FY2025written 2026-10-10
C34facthigh confidence
In 2025 Concerts was $20.86B of revenue, Ticketing $3.08B and Sponsorship $1.33B, before $69.7M of sales between segments, against $25.20B in total.
historical · FY2025written 2026-10-10

How it makes money

Concerts bring in about 83 cents of every dollar of sales but keep only about 3 cents of it as profit, because most of the ticket money goes to the artist. Ticketing keeps about 37 cents of each dollar it earns in fees and sponsorship about 64 cents. So a thin promotion business feeds two rich ones, and fans pay for tickets months before the show.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C04facthigh confidence
In 2025 Concerts earned $687.1M of adjusted operating income on $20.86B of revenue, a 3.3% margin; Ticketing $1,134.4M on $3.08B, 37%; Sponsorship $845.2M on $1.33B, 64%. Total adjusted operating income rose 10% to $2,366.4M.
against this

Adjusted operating income leaves out depreciation, stock pay, acquisition costs and the $450M legal accrual; reported operating income was $1,251.2M in 2025.

historical · FY2025written 2026-10-10
C34facthigh confidence
In 2025 Concerts was $20.86B of revenue, Ticketing $3.08B and Sponsorship $1.33B, before $69.7M of sales between segments, against $25.20B in total.
historical · FY2025written 2026-10-10
C14facthigh confidence
Free cash flow as the company defines it was $1,298.2M in 2025 and $1,334.6M over the twelve months to June 2026; that figure subtracts only maintenance spending, while 2026 capital spending is guided at $1.1B to $1.2B, $800M to $850M of it on new venues.
against this

Management says new venues earn high returns, so part of that spending buys future profit rather than maintaining today's.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-10
Where the money comes from, stream by stream
StreamShare of sales (FY2025)How it earns it
Concerts82.8%Ticket money, food, drink, parking and premium seats at the shows and festivals it promotes and the venues it runs.
Ticketing12.2%Ticketmaster's service fees on first-sale and resale tickets, shared with venues, plus fees from clients for its software.
Sponsorship & Advertising5.3%Brands paying for naming rights, signage, presales and online ads aimed at concert fans.

Who runs it

Michael Rapino has run Live Nation since 2005, and his new contract runs to 2031. Joe Berchtold is president and finance chief. Insiders own only 2.89% of the shares; Liberty Live, a tracking stock of Liberty Media, owns 29.62% and has two board seats. Bonuses pay on the company's preferred profit figure, and new share awards on returns against the S&P 500. Nothing rewards cash per share, and insiders sold shares this year and bought none.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C22facthigh confidence
Liberty Live owns 69,645,033 shares, 29.62%, and has two board nominees; directors and officers own 2.89% and Michael Rapino 1.88%.
current state · 2026-04-24written 2026-10-10
C23facthigh confidence
The 2025 bonus paid on adjusted operating income against a $2,300M target, achieved at 102%; Rapino's new contract to 2031 pays $3M salary and a $17M target bonus on adjusted operating income, and from 2027 adds yearly share awards, $15M of them tied to returns against the S&P 500.
current state · 2026-10-02written 2026-10-10
C21facthigh confidence
Insiders made 13 open-market sales of 162,813 shares in the year to October 2026, none under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan, and no purchases; the general counsel sold about 63,800 shares on 8 May 2026 at $163 to $166.
historical · 2025-10 to 2026-10written 2026-10-10
02

Why it wins, and who could beat it

Why customers come back

The pieces protect each other. The biggest promoter routes tours through venues it runs, and venues sign Ticketmaster for three to five years, in North America usually for every ticket they sell. Its money and traffic then win the next contract.

The best outside evidence is the court. In April 2026 a jury found Ticketmaster holds a monopoly in ticketing at major concert venues and Live Nation one in large amphitheaters, and that it unlawfully ties the two.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C38inferencemedium confidence
Live Nation's moat is the loop between promotion, venues and ticketing: the largest promoter fills its own venues and the venues sign exclusive ticketing contracts, which the jury found unlawful in part.
derived159 million fans and 460 venues (C01), multi-year exclusive venue contracts (C03), Ticketing's 37% margin (C04) and the jury's tying finding (C05).
against this
  • The company's own 10-K says barriers to entry in promotion are low (C28), and Concerts earns only 3.3% on revenue (C04).
  • Eventim grew ticketing 11.0% in 2025 against Ticketmaster's 3% revenue growth (C25).
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-10
C03facthigh confidence
Ticketmaster's contracts with venues usually run three to five years; venue contracts in North America and Australia generally give it the exclusive right to sell every public ticket, and it pays clients upfront money and part of the fees.
against this
  • The settlement with the Justice Department provides for injunctive and structural relief (C06), which reporting says limits exclusive terms; until approved the contracts stand.
  • Venues set ticket prices and fees and keep part of each fee, so the venue, not the fan, is the buyer Ticketmaster competes for.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-10
C05facthigh confidence
On 15 April 2026 a jury found that Ticketmaster unlawfully keeps a monopoly in ticketing at major concert venues, and that Live Nation holds a monopoly in large amphitheaters and unlawfully ties them to its promotion; remedies go to a separate bench trial.
against this
  • Post-trial motions were argued on 31 July 2026 and the company says it will appeal to the Second Circuit, so the verdict is not final.
  • The finding covers the United States; Ticketmaster sells by allocation rather than exclusive venue deals in most other markets (C03).
historical · 2026-04written 2026-10-10
C02facthigh confidence
Ticketmaster distributed 646 million tickets for 10,500 clients in 2025 and sold 346 million fee-bearing tickets, up from 340 million; fee-bearing ticket value was $37.1B, up 6%, with concerts up 9% and other events down.
historical · FY2025written 2026-10-10
C04facthigh confidence
In 2025 Concerts earned $687.1M of adjusted operating income on $20.86B of revenue, a 3.3% margin; Ticketing $1,134.4M on $3.08B, 37%; Sponsorship $845.2M on $1.33B, 64%. Total adjusted operating income rose 10% to $2,366.4M.
against this

Adjusted operating income leaves out depreciation, stock pay, acquisition costs and the $450M legal accrual; reported operating income was $1,251.2M in 2025.

historical · FY2025written 2026-10-10

The threat

The biggest threat is the court. The remedy for the states' case could limit exclusive contracts or go further, and it would land on ticketing, the most profitable part.

Rivals push too. StubHub wants artists to sell first-sale tickets through it, Europe's CTS Eventim grew ticketing faster in 2025, and Live Nation itself says starting a promotion business is easy.

The evidence under this - 6 claims
C05facthigh confidence
On 15 April 2026 a jury found that Ticketmaster unlawfully keeps a monopoly in ticketing at major concert venues, and that Live Nation holds a monopoly in large amphitheaters and unlawfully ties them to its promotion; remedies go to a separate bench trial.
against this
  • Post-trial motions were argued on 31 July 2026 and the company says it will appeal to the Second Circuit, so the verdict is not final.
  • The finding covers the United States; Ticketmaster sells by allocation rather than exclusive venue deals in most other markets (C03).
historical · 2026-04written 2026-10-10
C06facthigh confidence
In March 2026 Live Nation agreed terms with the Justice Department providing for injunctive and structural relief and a $280M fund for states' damages and penalties; the proposed final judgment was filed on 12 June 2026 and awaits court approval.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-10
C37inferencemedium confidence
The remedy decides the value of Ticketing, which earned 42.5% of the three segments' adjusted operating income in 2025, so the case is about the most profitable part of the company.
derivedTicketing $1,134.4M of $2,666.7M, the sum of Concerts $687.1M, Ticketing $1,134.4M and Sponsorship $845.2M (C04); the jury's findings are about ticketing and amphitheaters (C05).
against this
  • The settlement with the Justice Department already sets conduct and structural terms without a sale of Ticketmaster (C06), and the market rose 6.2% on it (C18).
  • Outside North America and Australia Ticketmaster mostly sells by allocation, which the US case does not reach (C03).
forwardwritten 2026-10-10
C26facthigh confidence
StubHub's 10-K says it aims to have rights holders list first-sale tickets directly on its marketplace and to disrupt the legacy primary ticketing model.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-10
C25facthigh confidence
CTS Eventim's ticketing revenue grew 11.0% in 2025 to €977.1M with a 46.4% adjusted margin.
historical · FY2025written 2026-10-10
C28facthigh confidence
Live Nation's own 10-K says barriers to entry in concert promotion are low, and names AEG, CTS Eventim and others as promoters and AXS, SeatGeek, Eventbrite and others as ticketing rivals.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-10

The rivals: STUB, SEAT, MSGE, MSGE, and 3 more that are private, in-house or listed abroad.

Who else does this, rival by rival
TickerRivalWhere it competesHow far alongPriced against it
Not listedA court-ordered remedy, from conduct terms to a forced sale of TicketmasterPriced against it: Not listedTicketing (Ticketmaster)AnnouncedNot listed
STUBStubHub direct issuancePriced against it: One segment onlyTicketing (Ticketmaster)On saleOne segment only
SEATVivid SeatsPriced against it: One segment onlyTicketing (Ticketmaster)On saleOne segment only
CTS EventimPriced against it: Listed abroadTicketing (Ticketmaster)On saleListed abroad
PrivateAEG Presents and AXS, and SeatGeekPriced against it: PrivateConcertsOn salePrivate
MSGEMSG EntertainmentPriced against it: One segment onlyConcertsOn saleOne segment only
MSG Entertainment and other venue owners selling naming rights and signageSponsorship & AdvertisingOn sale
03

How big it could get

How big this could get

Americans spent $57.3B on live entertainment other than sports in 2025, and after rising prices are stripped out they bought 15.5% more of it than in 2019. That counts theatre too, so the concert slice is not measured.

Live Nation's US sales of $14.33B sit inside that, flat for three years. The growth is abroad, where no outside body measures the market at all.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C24facthigh confidence
US consumers spent $57.3B on live entertainment other than sports in 2025 against $39.4B in 2019; in real terms spending rose 15.5%, from an index of 108.5 to 125.3.
historical · 2019-2025written 2026-10-10
C11facthigh confidence
Revenue from the United States was $14,215.3M in 2023, $14,374.1M in 2024 and $14,329.4M in 2025, while revenue from abroad rose from $8,511.0M to $10,872.0M.
against this

Management says North America large-venue shows for 2026 were pacing up double digits in February (S02), so flat US revenue may not persist.

historical · FY2023-FY2025written 2026-10-10
C01facthigh confidence
Live Nation reports three segments: Concerts, Ticketing (Ticketmaster) and Sponsorship & Advertising. In 2025 it put on 55,000 events for 159 million fans, up from 151 million, with 11,000 artists, and owned, operated or booked 460 venues and 131 festivals.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-10
04

The results

The numbers

Is it growing?Steady

Sales grew 11% over the twelve months to Jun 2026, about the same pace as the 8.8% in the year to Dec 2025.

Dec 2021: $6.27BDec 2022: $16.7BDec 2023: $22.7BDec 2024: $23.2BDec 2025: $25.2B12 mo to Jun 2026: $26.3B$6.27B$26.3B
Is it profitable?Thin

Operating margin is 3.0%, about where it was (4.8%) in the year to Dec 2023.

Dec 2021: −6.7%Dec 2022: 4.3%Dec 2023: 4.8%Dec 2024: 3.6%Dec 2025: 5.0%12 mo to Jun 2026: 3.0%−6.7%3.0%
How steady is it?Swingy

Yearly sales growth has ranged from +1.9% to +237% over the last 5 years.

Dec 2021: +237%Dec 2022: +166%Dec 2023: +36%Dec 2024: +1.9%Dec 2025: +8.8%+237%+8.8%
Does it earn good returns?Low

Each dollar put into the business earns 5.6% a year after tax, about where it was (10%) in the year to Dec 2022.

Dec 2022: 10%Dec 2023: 14%Dec 2024: 13%Dec 2025: 11%12 mo to Jun 2026: 5.6%10%5.6%
Is it making cash?Solid

It turned 5.3% of sales into free cash, $1.38B over the last twelve months.

Dec 2021: $1.63BDec 2022: $1.49BDec 2023: $924MDec 2024: $1.08BDec 2025: $334M12 mo to Jun 2026: $1.38B$1.63B$1.38B
Is the balance sheet safe?Light debt

It owes $130M more than the cash it holds, about 0.0 years of the cash its operations bring in.

Dec 2021: −$846MDec 2022: −$297MDec 2023: −$362MDec 2024: −$343MDec 2025: −$1.11B12 mo to Jun 2026: −$130M−$846M−$130M
Are shares being diluted?Creeping

The share count rose 12% in 4.5 years, and pay in shares costs 0.6% of sales.

Dec 2021: 217MDec 2022: 232MDec 2023: 231MDec 2024: 236MDec 2025: 232M12 mo to Jun 2026: 244M217M244M
All the numbers

Filed figures from the company's 10-K and 10-Q, read 2026-10-10. Fiscal years end in December.

Dec 2021Dec 2022Dec 2023Dec 2024Dec 202512 mo to Jun 2026
Size and growth
Sales$6.27B$16.7B$22.7B$23.2B$25.2B$26.3B
Sales growth+237%+166%+36%+1.9%+8.8%+11%
Profit
Operating margin−6.7%4.3%4.8%3.6%5.0%3.0%
Net margin−10%1.6%2.5%3.9%2.0%0.5%
What growth costs, per sales dollar
Selling, general and admin28%18%15%17%16%17%
Pay in shares3.3%0.7%0.5%0.5%0.6%0.6%
Capital spending2.4%2.1%1.9%2.8%4.2%4.7%
Cash
Cash from operations$1.78B$1.84B$1.36B$1.73B$1.40B$2.61B
Free cash flow$1.63B$1.49B$924M$1.08B$334M$1.38B
Balance sheet
Cash and short-term investments$4.88B$5.61B$6.23B$6.10B$7.09B$9.07B
Debt$5.73B$5.90B$6.59B$6.44B$8.20B$9.20B
Net cash−$846M−$297M−$362M−$343M−$1.11B−$130M
Returns and shares
Return on capital-10%14%13%11%5.6%
Shares (diluted)217M232M231M236M232M244M

What growth costs

Growth adds profit dollars but not a fatter margin. Over the last three years the company kept between about 4 and 5 cents of each dollar of sales as reported operating profit, and office and selling costs stayed near 16 cents. Bigger shows bring more money in and send most of it straight back to the artists.

The evidence under this - 2 claims
C35facthigh confidence
Reported operating margin was 4.8% in 2023, 3.6% in 2024 and 5.0% in 2025, while selling, general and administrative costs were 15.5%, 17.5% and 16.2% of revenue.
historical · FY2023-FY2025written 2026-10-10
C04facthigh confidence
In 2025 Concerts earned $687.1M of adjusted operating income on $20.86B of revenue, a 3.3% margin; Ticketing $1,134.4M on $3.08B, 37%; Sponsorship $845.2M on $1.33B, 64%. Total adjusted operating income rose 10% to $2,366.4M.
against this

Adjusted operating income leaves out depreciation, stock pay, acquisition costs and the $450M legal accrual; reported operating income was $1,251.2M in 2025.

historical · FY2025written 2026-10-10

The last report (30 Jul)

Quarter ended June 2026, filed figures.

9%
Sales growth
against the same quarter a year earlier
102.1%
Growth from the quarter before
against -39.9% the quarter before that
7¢
Operating profit
per dollar of sales

In Q2 2026 sales rose 9% to $7.67B, but profit before interest and other costs rose only 2%. Ticketing and sponsorship each grew about 13% to 14%. Concerts' profit fell 14%.

Management kept its promise of double-digit profit growth for the year and pointed to a record $6.4B of tickets already sold for later shows. That promise now needs profit up about 15% in the second half, after 4% in the first.

What it did to the thesisIt supported the ticketing and sponsorship side of the case and left the rest open. The concert business lost ground, so the year's promise now rests on the second half. It said nothing about the court remedy, which no analyst asked about. The view stays neutral.

The quarter in detail

Sales growth from the previous quarter, filed figures. The company has restated its own history, so a quarter either side of the restatement may describe a different business; n/c marks one that does not compare.

Earnings per share $1.05 against $0.66 expected; $1.05 as filed, with no adjustments.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C10facthigh confidence
In Q2 2026 revenue rose 9% to $7,666.9M and adjusted operating income 2% to $817.0M: Concerts fell 14% to $309.6M, Ticketing rose 14% to $331.0M and Sponsorship 13% to $256.9M. Event deferred revenue reached $6.4B, up 25%.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-10
C09estimatemedium confidence
The 2026 guide needs second-half adjusted operating income of at least $1,415M, up 15.3% on $1,226.9M, after the first half grew 4.3% to $1,188.0M.
derivedDouble digits means at least 10% on 2025's $2,366.4M, or $2,603.0M; less the first half's $1,188.0M leaves $1,415.0M against 2025's second half of $2,366.4M less $1,139.5M.
against this

Event deferred revenue was a record $6.4B at June, up 25% (C10), and management says most of Concerts' gain falls in Q4.

forwardwritten 2026-10-10
C08management claimmedium confidence
Management guides 2026 to double-digit growth in adjusted operating income, Ticketmaster's up by a mid-single-digit percentage, fans up about 10%, capital spending about $1.1B and minority partners' share about $325M, and says it can compound double digits for years.
against this
  • First-half adjusted operating income grew only 4.3% (C09), so the year depends on the second half.
  • Concerts' adjusted operating income fell 14% in Q2 2026 (C10).
forwardwritten 2026-10-10
C30management claimmedium confidence
Management says more than 143 million concert tickets were sold by mid-July 2026, over 14 million ahead of the year before, with ticket sales up by a mid-teens percentage at stadiums, arenas and amphitheaters.
against this

Concerts' Q2 2026 adjusted operating income fell 14% (C10), so more tickets have not yet meant more profit this year.

current state · 2026-07-15written 2026-10-10
What management did with the money

It spends heavily on new venues, about $1.1B this year, ten of them under construction and arenas bought in Bangkok, Milan and Buenos Aires. That leaves little cash after spending, it buys back no stock, and the number of shares has risen since 2020. It is refinancing debt due in 2027 at higher interest rates.

Insiders in 2026Q3: 0 purchases and 6 sales, from their Form 4 filings.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C14facthigh confidence
Free cash flow as the company defines it was $1,298.2M in 2025 and $1,334.6M over the twelve months to June 2026; that figure subtracts only maintenance spending, while 2026 capital spending is guided at $1.1B to $1.2B, $800M to $850M of it on new venues.
against this

Management says new venues earn high returns, so part of that spending buys future profit rather than maintaining today's.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-10
C16estimatemedium confidence
After all capital spending, including new venues, cash left over the twelve months to June 2026 was only about $0.2B to $0.3B.
derivedCompany-defined free cash flow of $1,334.6M less total capital spending of $1,226.0M plus maintenance spending of about $125M to $160M, which the company figure already subtracts.
against this

Venue spending is a choice; cut back to maintenance, cash would be near the $1.3B company figure (C14).

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-10
C33facthigh confidence
Ten venues were under construction at the end of 2025, and in 2026 Live Nation bought arenas in Bangkok, Milan and Buenos Aires.
current state · 2026-07-30written 2026-10-10
C13facthigh confidence
Diluted shares rose from 212.3 million in 2020 to 231.8 million in 2025 and 244.0 million in Q2 2026; 235,633,860 shares were outstanding on 23 July 2026, and $3.5B of convertible notes fall due in 2029 to 2031.
current state · 2026-07-23written 2026-10-10
C32facthigh confidence
Live Nation's debt costs about 4.3% on average and 85% is fixed; on 7 October 2026 it priced $730M of 7.125% and €600M of 6.125% notes due 2032 to repay the $1.2B of 6.5% secured notes due 2027.
current state · 2026-10-07written 2026-10-10
05

The price, and where we disagree

In short. Full. The price pays for management's plan of about 10% growth a year, delivered for a decade, and gives no discount for a court remedy aimed at ticketing.

Share price
$170.33
close,
Company value for each $1 of cash profit
24.8
its 6-year normal 17.0

The shares fell 6.3% on the verdict day in April and then recovered, and on the latest call nine analysts asked questions and none asked about the case. The market is treating the verdict as a fine, not as a change to how Ticketmaster works.

Two tests are close. Q3 2026 results on 3 November show whether the second half can deliver the year's promise. The judge's ruling on the post-trial motions and the court's decision on the Justice Department settlement decide how hard the remedy is.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C05facthigh confidence
On 15 April 2026 a jury found that Ticketmaster unlawfully keeps a monopoly in ticketing at major concert venues, and that Live Nation holds a monopoly in large amphitheaters and unlawfully ties them to its promotion; remedies go to a separate bench trial.
against this
  • Post-trial motions were argued on 31 July 2026 and the company says it will appeal to the Second Circuit, so the verdict is not final.
  • The finding covers the United States; Ticketmaster sells by allocation rather than exclusive venue deals in most other markets (C03).
historical · 2026-04written 2026-10-10
C06facthigh confidence
In March 2026 Live Nation agreed terms with the Justice Department providing for injunctive and structural relief and a $280M fund for states' damages and penalties; the proposed final judgment was filed on 12 June 2026 and awaits court approval.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-10
C18facthigh confidence
The shares fell 6.3% to $155.82 on the verdict day, rose 6.2% on the day the settlement terms were disclosed, fell 10.6% after Q3 2025 results and 5.1% after Q2 2026 results.
historical · 2025-11 to 2026-07written 2026-10-10
C20facthigh confidence
On the Q2 2026 call nine analysts asked questions and none asked about the verdict, the settlement or the remedy.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-10
C09estimatemedium confidence
The 2026 guide needs second-half adjusted operating income of at least $1,415M, up 15.3% on $1,226.9M, after the first half grew 4.3% to $1,188.0M.
derivedDouble digits means at least 10% on 2025's $2,366.4M, or $2,603.0M; less the first half's $1,188.0M leaves $1,415.0M against 2025's second half of $2,366.4M less $1,139.5M.
against this

Event deferred revenue was a record $6.4B at June, up 25% (C10), and management says most of Concerts' gain falls in Q4.

forwardwritten 2026-10-10
How we read the multiple

Counting debt and partners, Live Nation is valued at about $49.14B. What has to be true:

1. Over the last year it earned $2.41B of profit before interest, tax and wear on its assets, so the price is about 20 times that. 2. A buyer wanting 9% a year, a common yardstick, needs its spare cash to grow about 10% a year for ten years.

That spare cash, $1.33B by its own measure, leaves out about $1B a year of new venues; count them and $0.2B to $0.3B was left.

Against its own history. Buyers pay well above its own normal for each dollar of cash profit, so the price already assumes the growth continues; the pandemic years make that normal a rough guide.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C15estimatemedium confidence
At $170.33 the enterprise value of about $49.14B is 20.3 times trailing adjusted operating income of $2,414.9M, and the $40.14B equity is 30.1 times company-defined free cash flow; at a 9% return that needs about 9.9% yearly growth for ten years.
derived235.63M shares at $170.33 is $40.14B; plus $9.20B debt, less $1.93B own cash, plus $1.74B minority stakes at book is $49.14B. Trailing adjusted operating income is 2025's $2,366.4M plus first-half 2026's $1,188.0M less $1,139.5M. Ten years at 9% with an exit at 18 times free cash flow; 11.5% at 15 times, 9.0% at 20 times.
against this
  • Management says it can compound double-digit growth for years (C08), which would cover the 9.9% needed.
  • Minority stakes at book value understate what partners' shares are worth, so the true multiple is higher.
forwardwritten 2026-10-10
C16estimatemedium confidence
After all capital spending, including new venues, cash left over the twelve months to June 2026 was only about $0.2B to $0.3B.
derivedCompany-defined free cash flow of $1,334.6M less total capital spending of $1,226.0M plus maintenance spending of about $125M to $160M, which the company figure already subtracts.
against this

Venue spending is a choice; cut back to maintenance, cash would be near the $1.3B company figure (C14).

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-10
C14facthigh confidence
Free cash flow as the company defines it was $1,298.2M in 2025 and $1,334.6M over the twelve months to June 2026; that figure subtracts only maintenance spending, while 2026 capital spending is guided at $1.1B to $1.2B, $800M to $850M of it on new venues.
against this

Management says new venues earn high returns, so part of that spending buys future profit rather than maintaining today's.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-10
C08management claimmedium confidence
Management guides 2026 to double-digit growth in adjusted operating income, Ticketmaster's up by a mid-single-digit percentage, fans up about 10%, capital spending about $1.1B and minority partners' share about $325M, and says it can compound double digits for years.
against this
  • First-half adjusted operating income grew only 4.3% (C09), so the year depends on the second half.
  • Concerts' adjusted operating income fell 14% in Q2 2026 (C10).
forwardwritten 2026-10-10
C12facthigh confidence
At 30 June 2026 Live Nation owed $9.2B of debt ($2,968.4M current, $6,233.1M long-term) and held $9,071.9M of cash, of which $1,933.8M was its own after ticket money owed to clients and artists; minority partners' stakes were $1,736.8M and shareholders' equity $82.3M.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-10
Priced against its rivals

None of the listed rivals above sells the same thing to the same buyers as a large part of what it does. A price comparison needs at least two, so the price is judged against its own history instead.

Private or foreign rivals that cannot be priced: CTS Eventim, Anschutz Entertainment Group (AEG Presents, AXS), SeatGeek, Legends Global and Nederlander, Eventbrite.

Where we disagree with the market

The market believes

The court case is settled and costs a one-off fine; growth of about 10% a year continues.

We believe

Growth near 10% abroad is likely, but the remedy is open and could cut ticketing profit the price does not allow for.

Most analysts rate the shares a buy and none a sell, and the company booked $450M as its best estimate of the loss. The settlement with the Justice Department already sets rules without forcing a sale of Ticketmaster, and the market rose on it.

The evidence against us is real: if the remedy ends up no harsher than that settlement, today's price is fair, and tickets sold for 2026 shows are running well ahead of last year.

What analysts say, and the evidence
Analysts positive
80%
of 25, 1 Oct
Four months earlier
80%
of 25, 1 Jun
The evidence under this - 7 claims
C18facthigh confidence
The shares fell 6.3% to $155.82 on the verdict day, rose 6.2% on the day the settlement terms were disclosed, fell 10.6% after Q3 2025 results and 5.1% after Q2 2026 results.
historical · 2025-11 to 2026-07written 2026-10-10
C19facthigh confidence
40 analysts rate the shares a buy, 6 a hold and none a sell; 23.89 million shares, 15.22% of the float, were sold short at 30 September 2026, 11.9 days of trading.
current state · 2026-09-30written 2026-10-10
C20facthigh confidence
On the Q2 2026 call nine analysts asked questions and none asked about the verdict, the settlement or the remedy.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-10
C37inferencemedium confidence
The remedy decides the value of Ticketing, which earned 42.5% of the three segments' adjusted operating income in 2025, so the case is about the most profitable part of the company.
derivedTicketing $1,134.4M of $2,666.7M, the sum of Concerts $687.1M, Ticketing $1,134.4M and Sponsorship $845.2M (C04); the jury's findings are about ticketing and amphitheaters (C05).
against this
  • The settlement with the Justice Department already sets conduct and structural terms without a sale of Ticketmaster (C06), and the market rose 6.2% on it (C18).
  • Outside North America and Australia Ticketmaster mostly sells by allocation, which the US case does not reach (C03).
forwardwritten 2026-10-10
C05facthigh confidence
On 15 April 2026 a jury found that Ticketmaster unlawfully keeps a monopoly in ticketing at major concert venues, and that Live Nation holds a monopoly in large amphitheaters and unlawfully ties them to its promotion; remedies go to a separate bench trial.
against this
  • Post-trial motions were argued on 31 July 2026 and the company says it will appeal to the Second Circuit, so the verdict is not final.
  • The finding covers the United States; Ticketmaster sells by allocation rather than exclusive venue deals in most other markets (C03).
historical · 2026-04written 2026-10-10
C08management claimmedium confidence
Management guides 2026 to double-digit growth in adjusted operating income, Ticketmaster's up by a mid-single-digit percentage, fans up about 10%, capital spending about $1.1B and minority partners' share about $325M, and says it can compound double digits for years.
against this
  • First-half adjusted operating income grew only 4.3% (C09), so the year depends on the second half.
  • Concerts' adjusted operating income fell 14% in Q2 2026 (C10).
forwardwritten 2026-10-10
C07facthigh confidence
Live Nation accrued $450M in the first half of 2026 as its best estimate of the loss from the settling states and the jury's damages; a separate FTC suit over pricing, filed in September 2025, carries no accrual.
against this

The 10-Q warns that remedies or compliance requirements imposed by the court could adversely affect how it operates, a cost no accrual measures.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-10
06

What could go wrong, and how we would know

The risks

  • A harsh court remedy. The court could end exclusive venue contracts or force Ticketmaster out of the company, hitting the part that earns over 40% of profit.
  • This year's promise slips. Profit grew 4% in the first half, so the promised double digits need about 15% growth in the second.
  • US sales stall. US sales have been flat for three years; if growth abroad slows too, the price has no cushion.
  • Heavy borrowing. It owes $9.2B and is refinancing 2027 debt at higher rates while spending about $1B a year on venues.
  • Owners' slice shrinks. Share count has risen since 2020, partners take a growing share of profit, and convertible notes can add more shares.
  • Insiders are selling. Insiders sold shares by choice this year, including the general counsel weeks after the verdict, and bought none.
The evidence under this - 8 claims
C05facthigh confidence
On 15 April 2026 a jury found that Ticketmaster unlawfully keeps a monopoly in ticketing at major concert venues, and that Live Nation holds a monopoly in large amphitheaters and unlawfully ties them to its promotion; remedies go to a separate bench trial.
against this
  • Post-trial motions were argued on 31 July 2026 and the company says it will appeal to the Second Circuit, so the verdict is not final.
  • The finding covers the United States; Ticketmaster sells by allocation rather than exclusive venue deals in most other markets (C03).
historical · 2026-04written 2026-10-10
C37inferencemedium confidence
The remedy decides the value of Ticketing, which earned 42.5% of the three segments' adjusted operating income in 2025, so the case is about the most profitable part of the company.
derivedTicketing $1,134.4M of $2,666.7M, the sum of Concerts $687.1M, Ticketing $1,134.4M and Sponsorship $845.2M (C04); the jury's findings are about ticketing and amphitheaters (C05).
against this
  • The settlement with the Justice Department already sets conduct and structural terms without a sale of Ticketmaster (C06), and the market rose 6.2% on it (C18).
  • Outside North America and Australia Ticketmaster mostly sells by allocation, which the US case does not reach (C03).
forwardwritten 2026-10-10
C09estimatemedium confidence
The 2026 guide needs second-half adjusted operating income of at least $1,415M, up 15.3% on $1,226.9M, after the first half grew 4.3% to $1,188.0M.
derivedDouble digits means at least 10% on 2025's $2,366.4M, or $2,603.0M; less the first half's $1,188.0M leaves $1,415.0M against 2025's second half of $2,366.4M less $1,139.5M.
against this

Event deferred revenue was a record $6.4B at June, up 25% (C10), and management says most of Concerts' gain falls in Q4.

forwardwritten 2026-10-10
C11facthigh confidence
Revenue from the United States was $14,215.3M in 2023, $14,374.1M in 2024 and $14,329.4M in 2025, while revenue from abroad rose from $8,511.0M to $10,872.0M.
against this

Management says North America large-venue shows for 2026 were pacing up double digits in February (S02), so flat US revenue may not persist.

historical · FY2023-FY2025written 2026-10-10
C12facthigh confidence
At 30 June 2026 Live Nation owed $9.2B of debt ($2,968.4M current, $6,233.1M long-term) and held $9,071.9M of cash, of which $1,933.8M was its own after ticket money owed to clients and artists; minority partners' stakes were $1,736.8M and shareholders' equity $82.3M.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-10
C13facthigh confidence
Diluted shares rose from 212.3 million in 2020 to 231.8 million in 2025 and 244.0 million in Q2 2026; 235,633,860 shares were outstanding on 23 July 2026, and $3.5B of convertible notes fall due in 2029 to 2031.
current state · 2026-07-23written 2026-10-10
C26facthigh confidence
StubHub's 10-K says it aims to have rights holders list first-sale tickets directly on its marketplace and to disrupt the legacy primary ticketing model.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-10
C21facthigh confidence
Insiders made 13 open-market sales of 162,813 shares in the year to October 2026, none under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan, and no purchases; the general counsel sold about 63,800 shares on 8 May 2026 at $163 to $166.
historical · 2025-10 to 2026-10written 2026-10-10
What we still do not know
  • What remedy the court will order for the states' case, and when the separate remedies trial will be held.
  • How much Ticketmaster would earn without exclusive venue contracts; the company does not split it out.
  • How fast concert spending is growing abroad, where the growth now comes from; no outside body publishes it.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C05facthigh confidence
On 15 April 2026 a jury found that Ticketmaster unlawfully keeps a monopoly in ticketing at major concert venues, and that Live Nation holds a monopoly in large amphitheaters and unlawfully ties them to its promotion; remedies go to a separate bench trial.
against this
  • Post-trial motions were argued on 31 July 2026 and the company says it will appeal to the Second Circuit, so the verdict is not final.
  • The finding covers the United States; Ticketmaster sells by allocation rather than exclusive venue deals in most other markets (C03).
historical · 2026-04written 2026-10-10
C37inferencemedium confidence
The remedy decides the value of Ticketing, which earned 42.5% of the three segments' adjusted operating income in 2025, so the case is about the most profitable part of the company.
derivedTicketing $1,134.4M of $2,666.7M, the sum of Concerts $687.1M, Ticketing $1,134.4M and Sponsorship $845.2M (C04); the jury's findings are about ticketing and amphitheaters (C05).
against this
  • The settlement with the Justice Department already sets conduct and structural terms without a sale of Ticketmaster (C06), and the market rose 6.2% on it (C18).
  • Outside North America and Australia Ticketmaster mostly sells by allocation, which the US case does not reach (C03).
forwardwritten 2026-10-10
C24facthigh confidence
US consumers spent $57.3B on live entertainment other than sports in 2025 against $39.4B in 2019; in real terms spending rose 15.5%, from an index of 108.5 to 125.3.
historical · 2019-2025written 2026-10-10
C29management claimmedium confidence
Management says resale is a low double-digit share of Ticketmaster's sales value and resale of concert tickets about 5%.
against this
  • The 10-K says only that resale is a small portion; no filed figure confirms the share.
  • Management says it is pushing more concert tickets to first sale to curb scalpers, so the resale share may be falling by design.
current state · 2026-07-30written 2026-10-10

What would change our view

  1. Neutral→AttractiveA lower price on unchanged growth

    It needs all of:

    • ○The shares fall until the company is valued at 16 times its yearly profit before interest, with growth still near 10%.about ≈$134.25 today, 21% below the last close
    • ○Profit before interest grows 10% or more in 2026.checked at the next results, due by 3 Nov
  2. Neutral→AttractiveThe remedy settles no harsher than the settlement

    It needs all of:

    • ○The court sets a remedy that keeps Ticketmaster in the company on terms no harsher than the Justice Department settlement.watched as it happens
    • ○Profit before interest grows 10% or more in 2026.checked at the next results, due by 3 Nov
We would also be wrong if
  • Fans fall from one year to the next in 2027.
  • US sales grow 8% or more in 2026, which would strengthen the case.

What is coming

  • 3 November 2026 Q3 2026 results: Whether adjusted operating income grows enough to keep the year's double-digit guide in reach.
Every dated event ahead
  • 3 November 2026 Q3 2026 results: Whether adjusted operating income grows enough to keep the year's double-digit guide in reach.
  • 31 December 2026 Ruling on post-trial motions in the states' case: Whether the verdict stands and when the remedies trial begins.
  • 28 February 2027 Q4 2026 results and the 2027 outlook: Whether the double-digit year was delivered and the plan for 2027 still calls for it.
  • 31 March 2027 Court decision on the Justice Department settlement: Whether the conduct and structural terms become binding without a sale of Ticketmaster.
Since we wrote this
Written
10 Oct
Price the thesis read
$170.33
9 Oct
  • 10 OctThesis writtenNeutral, medium convictionWritten three weeks before Q3 2026 results, six months after the jury's verdict and with remedies still unset.

Sources 17

Where this came from

Sources - 17

Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.

  1. S01primarycompany filing2026-02-19
    business description, fans, venues, ticketing contracts and exclusivity, named competitors, revenue by geography, segment results, executives, share count, headcount
    backsC01C02C03C11C13C28C33C34C35
  2. S02primarycompany release2026-02-19
    segment revenue and adjusted operating income, free cash flow as the company defines it, free cash, the 2026 outlook, the definition of adjusted operating income
    Concerts delivered record results with AOI of $687 million, up 30% with best-ever margin of 3.3%
    backsC04C08C14C34
  3. S03primarycompany release2026-07-30
    Q2 and first-half segment results, event deferred revenue, fee-bearing tickets, the full-year 2026 outlook, balance sheet, free cash, the $450M accrual in corporate expenses
    In a world of endless screens and AI-generated everything, the one thing that can't be copied is being there.
    backsC07C08C10C12C13C14C30
  4. S04primarycompany filing2026-07-30
    the antitrust case, the settlement with the Justice Department, the jury verdict, the $450M accrual, the FTC suit, debt by instrument, the share count on 2026-07-23, the April 2026 venue financing
    backsC05C06C07C12C13C32
  5. S05primaryregulator2026-04-15
    the jury's findings, the overcharge per ticket, and that remedies go to a separate bench trial; read through press_fetch.py
    The jury found that Ticketmaster unlawfully maintains a monopoly in the market for ticketing services at major concert venues. The jury also found that Live Nation has a monopoly in the market for large amphitheaters used by artists and that Live Nation unlawfully requires artists who use the amphitheaters it owns to also use its event promotion services. ... New Yorkers Overcharged $1.72 Per Ticket in Higher Fees ... Attorney General James and the coalition will argue for remedies and financial penalties at a separate bench trial.
    backsC05
  6. S06primarytranscript2026-07-30
    Live Nation Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (held 2026-07-30)
    secondary ticketing's share of sales, the Spotify presale deal, arenas bought in Bangkok, Milan and Buenos Aires; questions from nine analysts, none on the verdict
    Secondary now on a global GTV basis is below teens. It's low double-digit portion. ... It's probably 5% of our global GTV.
    backsC20C29C33
  7. S07primarycompany filing2026-04-24
    beneficial ownership, Liberty Live's stake and nominees, the 2025 bonus target and payout, pay design
    backsC22C23
  8. S08primarycompany filing2026-10-02
    the chief executive's contract to 2031 and its pay terms
    backsC23
  9. S09primarygovernment data2026-09-30
    US consumer spending on live entertainment other than sports, in dollars and in real terms, 2019 to 2025
    "date":"2019-01-01","value":"39.388" ... "date":"2025-01-01","value":"57.289" ; quantity index "date":"2019-01-01","value":"108.481" ... "date":"2025-01-01","value":"125.296"
    backsC24
  10. S10primarycompany release2026-03-26
    the largest European rival's ticketing growth and margin
    Revenue in the Ticketing segment grew by 11.0% in 2025 to stand at EUR 977.1 million. Adjusted EBITDA advanced by 8.9% to EUR 453.7 million. The adjusted EBITDA margin stood at 46.4%.
    backsC25
  11. S11primarycompany filing2026-03-20
    a rival's plan to sell first-sale tickets and 'disrupt the legacy primary ticketing model'
    Our vision for direct issuance is that content rights holders will list tickets directly on our marketplace as any other seller would at scale.
    backsC26
  12. S12primarycompany filing2026-03-12
    a resale rival naming Ticketmaster as a primary competitor
    Our primary competitors are StubHub, Ticketmaster, SeatGeek, and TicketNetwork.
    backsC27
  13. S13primarycompany filing2026-10-10
    13 open-market sales in the year, none under a Rule 10b5-1 plan, no purchases
    backsC21
  14. S14primarycompany release2026-07-21
    the share of uploads and of listening that machine-made music takes on one streaming service
    Despite the enormous volume of uploads, fully AI-generated music accounts for only a small fraction of listening activity, between 1 and 3% of total streams.
    backsC31
  15. S15secondaryvendor data2026-10-10
    Research pack, frozen 2026-10-10 (FMP market data, FINRA short interest)
    daily closes, the price decomposition, analyst ratings and estimates, short interest, news reactions
    backsC17C18C19
  16. S16primarycompany filing2026-10-07
    $730M of 7.125% and €600M of 6.125% notes due 2032 to redeem the 6.5% secured notes due 2027
    backsC32
  17. S17primarycompany filing2026-08-12
    a rival venue operator's portfolio and revenue of $1,060.8M, up 13%
    Our company includes (i) our portfolio of venues: Madison Square Garden (“The Garden”), the Infosys Theater at Madison Square Garden, Radio City Music Hall, the Beacon Theatre, and The Chicago Theatre
    backsC36
Rendered from content/LYV/thesis.json · thesis reviewed 2026-10-10. This page explains a company; it does not say what to pay, when to buy or how much.