← All thesesPLTRNeutralMedium convictionSaturday 3 October 2026עברית

Palantir Technologies

A software company that maps how a business or an army actually runs, then lets people and AI act on that map. Governments and large companies pay yearly for it.

Our viewNeutral Medium conviction
The scores
The profile · 1-4
Growth4/4 ↑

Revenue up 93% in Q2 and guided to 82% for 2026, accelerating for eight quarters, with customers up 24% and retention at 157%.

Business quality3/4 →

85% gross margin and 157% retention show customers locked in, but labs, Anduril and in-house builds now contest the same buyers.

Financial position4/4 ↑

$9.41B of cash and securities, no debt, and over $1B of free cash flow a quarter.

Execution record4/4 ↑

Guidance raised from 61% to 82% growth within a year, and adjusted margins rising while growth accelerated.

Per share capture3/4 →

Diluted shares flat for a year while revenue per share rose 78%, but share pay is 14% of revenue and the founders control the vote.

Potential3/4 ↑

Palantir has 1.4% of a $452B AI software market, but its biggest contracts carry ceilings rather than commitments.

Risk profile3/4 →

Cancellable contracts, federal budget exposure and a founder-controlled vote, offset by no debt and a broad customer base.

Valuation1/4 →

About 77 times trailing revenue and 55 times 2028 earnings: the price assumes consensus growth through 2028 and more after.

Evidence quality3/4 →

Revenue, margins and customers are filed and federal obligations corroborate them, but retention, deal wins and AIP's edge are management's word.

The Verdict

We rate Palantir neutral. Its software maps how a business or an army actually runs and lets people and AI act on that map, and it is a strong business: growing faster as it gets bigger, with high profit and no debt. The price is stretched: it already counts on sales growing by about half each year until 2028 and fast growth after that, so there is no room for a slowdown. The view hinges on growth: falling below 40% a year would hurt, a much lower price would help. We think the business is excellent and the price leaves almost nothing spare.

The long caseCompanies and governments are putting AI to work every day, and that first needs their data organised; Palantir must keep winning that work faster than the price assumes.

The evidence under this - 7 claims
C02facthigh confidence
Q2 2026 revenue was $1.935B, up 93%: government $990M (up 79%) and commercial $945M (up 110%), with US commercial $764M, up 149%.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-03
C05management claimmedium confidence
Net dollar retention was 157% in Q2 2026, up from 150% the quarter before: existing customers spent 57% more than a year earlier.
against this

The metric is stated on the call and its definition is not in the 10-Q, so it cannot be recomputed from filed figures.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-03
C03management claimmedium confidence
Management raised 2026 revenue guidance to $8.150B to $8.158B, 82% growth, from 61% in February, with adjusted operating income of $4.889B to $4.897B.
against this
  • The guide implies the fourth quarter grows about 72%, slower than Q2's 93%, so even management expects deceleration from here (C37).
  • Adjusted operating income excludes $265M a quarter of share pay, about 14% of revenue.
forwardwritten 2026-10-03
C25estimatemedium confidence
At $188.75 the company is worth about $485B on 2.569B diluted shares; less $9.41B of cash, about $475B, 77 times trailing revenue and 58 times the 2026 guide.
derivedthe 2 October 2026 close times Q2's weighted diluted shares (C20), less cash and securities (C18); divided by $6.16B of trailing revenue and the $8.154B guide midpoint (C03)
against this

The vendor counts about 2.30B shares and reports $433B and 70 times trailing sales; on the 2.40B shares outstanding it would be about $454B.

current state · 2026-10-02written 2026-10-03
C27inferencemedium confidence
The price assumes revenue near 2028's consensus $17.9B, about 48% a year from the 2026 guide, and fast growth after that: it is 55 times 2028 earnings.
derivedabout $475B of company value (C25) is 26.6 times 2028 consensus revenue (C26); $188.75 is 55 times its $3.42 of earnings per share; $8.154B growing to $17.9B in two years is 48% a year
against this
  • If 2029's three-analyst consensus of $33.4B is reached the stock is about 28 times 2029 earnings, a premium but not an extreme one.
  • Management has beaten each guide it set this year, raising 2026 by 21 points in two quarters (C03).
forwardwritten 2026-10-03
C26factmedium confidence
Analysts' consensus puts 2028 sales at $17.9B and profit per share at $3.42 from nine analysts; 2029 sales at $33.4B from three.
against this

Nine analysts is a thin panel for a company this size, and the 2029 and 2030 figures rest on three.

forwardwritten 2026-10-03
C28facthigh confidence
Twenty of 31 analysts rate the stock a buy, 64.5%, up from 44.4% in February 2026; short interest was 2.74% of the float on September 15.
against this

The vendor's snapshot panel differs from its dated series, 26 opinions against 31.

current state · 2026-10-01written 2026-10-03
01

The company

Large organisations keep their information in hundreds of separate systems that do not talk to each other. Palantir's software connects them into one live model of the organisation: its factories, orders, soldiers or patients, and the rules that link them. Staff, and now AI agents, can then make and carry out decisions on top of it.

Its buyers are armies, spy agencies and big companies. The alternative is building the same thing in-house with consultants, which is slow and rarely finished. Palantir wins them with free pilots and week-long trials.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C01facthigh confidence
Palantir sells four software platforms, Gotham, Foundry, Apollo and AIP, built around an Ontology that maps a customer's data, logic and actions; contracts run one to five years and revenue is recognised ratably.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-03
C34facthigh confidence
Palantir runs pilots and short bootcamps at its own expense to win customers, and closed 220 deals worth at least $1M in Q2 2026.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-03
C07facthigh confidence
The US Army folded 75 separate contracts into one Palantir enterprise agreement in July 2025, worth up to $10B over up to ten years with volume discounts; the $10B is a ceiling, not a commitment.
against this

The ceiling obliges nothing: the Army and other Defense agencies buy only what they order, and volume discounts lower the price per unit.

current state · 2025-07-31written 2026-10-03
C38facthigh confidence
Federal records show $1.98B of prime contract obligations to Palantir in the year to September 2026, against $1.02B the year before; Defense was $1.32B.
historical · October 2024 to September 2026written 2026-10-03

How it makes money

Customers sign contracts of one to five years and pay for the software over that time. Government and commercial customers each bring in about half the money.

Once installed, the software costs little to run: in Q2 2026 Palantir kept 85 cents of each dollar after its direct costs, and each half of the business kept more than 70 cents after its own costs and sales spending. So each new dollar of sales is mostly profit.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C01facthigh confidence
Palantir sells four software platforms, Gotham, Foundry, Apollo and AIP, built around an Ontology that maps a customer's data, logic and actions; contracts run one to five years and revenue is recognised ratably.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-03
C02facthigh confidence
Q2 2026 revenue was $1.935B, up 93%: government $990M (up 79%) and commercial $945M (up 110%), with US commercial $764M, up 149%.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-03
C32facthigh confidence
In Q2 2026 the commercial segment kept 78% of its revenue after its direct costs and sales spending, the government segment 71%.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-03
C17facthigh confidence
In Q2 2026 gross margin was 85% and GAAP operating margin 47%; excluding $265M of share pay and its payroll tax, the adjusted margin was 62%.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-03
Where the money comes from, stream by stream
StreamShare of sales (Q2 2026)How it earns it
US government41.8%Platform licences and deployments, mainly Gotham, Maven and AIP, sold to US defense, intelligence and civilian agencies under multi-year contracts.
US commercial39.5%Foundry and AIP subscriptions sold to US companies, usually after a free pilot or bootcamp, expanding as use spreads.
International government9.4%The same platforms sold to allied governments, the UK the largest.
International commercial9.4%Foundry and AIP subscriptions to companies outside the US, growing far slower than in the US.

Who runs it

Alex Karp has run Palantir since 2005, with co-founders Stephen Cohen as president and Peter Thiel as chairman. Under Karp it went from heavy losses to keeping almost half of each sales dollar as profit. Insiders own about a tenth of the shares, but a special share class gives the founders half the votes, so other shareholders cannot outvote them. Karp's pay is a large grant of options from the year it listed that simply vests over time: no bonus, nothing tied to sales or profit, only the share price.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C43facthigh confidence
Alexander Karp has been chief executive since 2005 and a director since 2003; Stephen Cohen, a co-founder, is president; Peter Thiel, a co-founder, has chaired the board since 2003; Shyam Sankar (CTO) joined in 2006, David Glazer (CFO) in 2013 and Ryan Taylor (chief revenue and legal officer) in 2010.
current state · 2026-04-24written 2026-10-04
C44facthigh confidence
At April 6, 2026 directors and executive officers held 3.4% of Class A shares, 98.3% of Class B and all Class F, 236.2M shares with options vesting within 60 days, about 9.6% of the company, and 50.8% of the votes; Thiel held 98.0M shares, Karp 93.3M; BlackRock held 6.9% of Class A.
against this
  • Karp has pledged 3.0M of his Class A shares and director Alexander Moore 978,630 of his as collateral for personal loans, so part of the stake is borrowed against.
  • Insiders made 311 sales and no purchases in the year to October 2026 (C22).
current state · 2026-04-06written 2026-10-04
C45facthigh confidence
Palantir paid its named executives no bonus for 2025 and no pay is tied to revenue, profit or cash flow: Karp's equity is an August 2020 grant of 141M options at $11.38 and 39M RSUs vesting 2.5% a quarter on service alone; the CFO's and CRO's 2025 SARs pay only above $150 in a November 2033 window, capped at $450.
against this
  • The 2020 options were struck above the $7.60 the shares were then worth and the SARs above the price at grant, so the pay does ride on the share price, just not on any operating measure.
  • Karp's 2025 total was $8.6M, of which $7.5M was security, aircraft and other benefits rather than salary.
historical · FY2025written 2026-10-04
02

Why it wins, and who could beat it

Why customers come back

Once an organisation runs its decisions on Palantir's model of itself, leaving means rebuilding that model somewhere else. Customers rarely do.

The evidence is how much more they spend. Customers from a year ago spent 57% more in Q2 2026. The twenty largest pay an average of $124M a year, and the top three have stayed about ten years. The US Army folded 75 separate contracts into one Palantir agreement rather than put them out to tender again.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C05management claimmedium confidence
Net dollar retention was 157% in Q2 2026, up from 150% the quarter before: existing customers spent 57% more than a year earlier.
against this

The metric is stated on the call and its definition is not in the 10-Q, so it cannot be recomputed from filed figures.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-03
C06facthigh confidence
Average revenue from the top twenty customers was $124M over the year to June 2026, up 67%; the top three were 16% of 2025 revenue and had been customers for ten years on average.
against this

The 10-K says some large customers have cut spending or terminated in the past and required refunds.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-03
C07facthigh confidence
The US Army folded 75 separate contracts into one Palantir enterprise agreement in July 2025, worth up to $10B over up to ten years with volume discounts; the $10B is a ceiling, not a commitment.
against this

The ceiling obliges nothing: the Army and other Defense agencies buy only what they order, and volume discounts lower the price per unit.

current state · 2025-07-31written 2026-10-03

The threat

The AI model makers now sell directly to the same companies: OpenAI launched a platform for running AI agents across a business in February 2026. In defence, the Army gave Anduril the prototype for its next command system, with Palantir only on Anduril's team. Palantir says it beats the labs in trials, but nobody outside has confirmed one.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C10facthigh confidence
Palantir's 10-K names no rival company: it says it competes first with customers' own in-house builds, then with enterprise software firms, government contractors and integrators.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-03
C11factmedium confidence
OpenAI launched Frontier in February 2026, a platform to build and run AI agents across a company, sold with consulting partners.
current state · 2026-02-11written 2026-10-03
C12facthigh confidence
The Army gave Anduril a $99.6M, eleven-month prototype award for its next command-and-control system in July 2025, with Palantir on Anduril's team.
historical · July 2025written 2026-10-03
C13management claimlow confidence
Management says a frontier AI lab lost a head-to-head trial to AIP at a large Silicon Valley tech company, and the win became a $10M a year contract.
against this

Neither the customer nor the lab is named, and no outside account of the trial exists.

current state · 2026-08-03written 2026-10-03

The rivals: SNOW, AI, BAH, and 2 more that are private, in-house or listed abroad.

Who else does this, rival by rival
TickerRivalHow far alongPriced against it
SNOWCustomers' own builds on data platforms such as Snowflake and DatabricksPriced against it: Different productOn saleDifferent product
PrivateOpenAI FrontierPriced against it: PrivateOn salePrivate
PrivateAnduril Industries (Lattice and the Army's next command system)Priced against it: PrivateOn salePrivate
AIC3.ai, Inc.Priced against it: Same productOn saleSame product
BAHBooz Allen Hamilton and other federal integratorsPriced against it: Different productOn saleDifferent product
03

How big it could get

How big this could get

Gartner, a research firm, expects the world to spend $452.5B on AI software in 2026, up from $283.1B in 2025. Palantir's sales over the past year were about 1.4% of that, so the market is not the limit.

Government money is growing too: US federal contract payments to Palantir roughly doubled in the year to September 2026.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C14factmedium confidence
Gartner forecasts worldwide AI software spending of $452.5B in 2026, up from $283.1B in 2025.
against this

Gartner's AI software category includes AI features inside every application, most of which Palantir does not sell, so it bounds rather than sizes Palantir's market.

forwardwritten 2026-10-03
C15factmedium confidence
Gartner forecasts spending on AI models and platforms of $64B in 2026, up 63.4% from $39B in 2025.
against this

The category includes the foundation models themselves, which Palantir does not sell; its application-development and data-science platform lines are the overlap.

forwardwritten 2026-10-03
C38facthigh confidence
Federal records show $1.98B of prime contract obligations to Palantir in the year to September 2026, against $1.02B the year before; Defense was $1.32B.
historical · October 2024 to September 2026written 2026-10-03

Who has signed

The Army's enterprise agreement is worth up to $10B over ten years, and the Maven targeting software contract about $1.3B to 2029. Both are ceilings rather than promises. Most Palantir contracts can be cancelled at will, so only $4.9B of the $13.1B customers have agreed to is firm.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C07facthigh confidence
The US Army folded 75 separate contracts into one Palantir enterprise agreement in July 2025, worth up to $10B over up to ten years with volume discounts; the $10B is a ceiling, not a commitment.
against this

The ceiling obliges nothing: the Army and other Defense agencies buy only what they order, and volume discounts lower the price per unit.

current state · 2025-07-31written 2026-10-03
C08facthigh confidence
The Army raised the Maven Smart System licence contract by $795M in May 2025 to about $1.3B, running to May 2029.
current state · 2025-05-20written 2026-10-03
C24facthigh confidence
Most contracts can be cancelled for convenience: remaining performance obligations were $4.9B at June 30, 2026, against $13.1B of total remaining deal value.
against this

Deal value assumes every option is exercised and nothing is cancelled; the 10-K says Palantir has historically not realised all of it.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-03
Where the growth is coming from, business by business

Where the growth is coming from

BusinessShare of revenueGrowth: last quarterLast half-yearLast yearShare in 3 years at its half-year rate
Government Operating Segment51%+79.0%+77.7%+68.7%41%
Commercial49%+109.8%+102.9%+91.6%59%
Whole company100%+92.8%+89.0%+78.9%100%

On the filed split through 2026-06-30, if each business keeps its last half-year's growth, the company grows about 90% next year and 92% in year 3, against 78.9% over the last twelve months. Commercial grows fastest: it grows 103% against 78% for the rest, and would be 59% of revenue by then. A scenario, not a forecast: no business holds its rate.

How we read it: The blend: commercial and government buy the same platforms, both grow above 75%, and the score would be 4 on either alone.

04

The results

The numbers

Is it growing?Fast

Sales grew 79% over the twelve months to Jun 2026, faster than the 56% in the year to Dec 2025.

Dec 2021: $1.54BDec 2022: $1.91BDec 2023: $2.23BDec 2024: $2.87BDec 2025: $4.48B12 mo to Jun 2026: $6.16B$1.54B$6.16B
Is it profitable?Strong

Operating margin is 43%, up from 5.4% in the year to Dec 2023.

Dec 2021: −27%Dec 2022: −8.5%Dec 2023: 5.4%Dec 2024: 11%Dec 2025: 32%12 mo to Jun 2026: 43%−27%43%
Does growth pay off?Pays off

Running costs take 42¢ of each sales dollar, down from 105¢ in the year to Dec 2021.

Dec 2021: 105¢Dec 2022: 87¢Dec 2023: 75¢Dec 2024: 69¢Dec 2025: 51¢12 mo to Jun 2026: 42¢105¢42¢
Does it earn good returns?Strong

Each dollar put into the business earns 33% a year after tax, up from 3.6% in the year to Dec 2023.

Dec 2023: 3.6%Dec 2024: 7.0%Dec 2025: 23%12 mo to Jun 2026: 33%3.6%33%
Is it making cash?Strong

It turned 55% of sales into free cash, $3.36B over the last twelve months.

Dec 2021: $321MDec 2022: $184MDec 2023: $697MDec 2024: $1.14BDec 2025: $2.10B12 mo to Jun 2026: $3.36B$321M$3.36B
How steady is it?Uneven

Yearly sales growth has ranged from +17% to +56% over the last 5 years.

Dec 2021: +41%Dec 2022: +24%Dec 2023: +17%Dec 2024: +29%Dec 2025: +56%+41%+56%
Are shares being diluted?Diluting

The share count rose 34% in 4.5 years, and pay in shares costs 14% of sales.

Dec 2021: 1.92BDec 2022: 2.06BDec 2023: 2.30BDec 2024: 2.45BDec 2025: 2.57B12 mo to Jun 2026: 2.57B1.92B2.57B
All the numbers

Filed figures from the company's 10-K and 10-Q, read 2026-10-04. Fiscal years end in December.

Dec 2021Dec 2022Dec 2023Dec 2024Dec 202512 mo to Jun 2026
Size and growth
Sales$1.54B$1.91B$2.23B$2.87B$4.48B$6.16B
Sales growth+41%+24%+17%+29%+56%+79%
Profit
Gross margin78%79%81%80%82%85%
Operating margin−27%−8.5%5.4%11%32%43%
Net margin−34%−20%9.4%16%36%49%
What growth costs, per sales dollar
Research and development25%19%18%18%12%10%
Sales and marketing40%37%33%31%24%20%
General and admin40%31%24%21%15%12%
Pay in shares50%30%21%24%15%14%
Capital spending0.8%2.1%0.7%0.4%0.8%0.7%
Cash
Cash from operations$334M$224M$712M$1.15B$2.13B$3.40B
Free cash flow$321M$184M$697M$1.14B$2.10B$3.36B
Balance sheet
Cash and short-term investments$2.52B$2.63B$3.67B$5.23B$7.18B$9.41B
Debt$0-----
Net cash$2.52B-----
Returns and shares
Return on capital--3.6%7.0%23%33%
Shares (diluted)1.92B2.06B2.30B2.45B2.57B2.57B

What growth costs

Growth keeps making Palantir more profitable. Sales have grown far faster than spending on selling, research and running the company, so each new dollar of sales costs less to win. Paying staff in shares has shrunk as a share of sales, though it is still large. The business needs almost no buildings or equipment to grow.

The evidence under this - 2 claims
C47facthigh confidence
Per sales dollar, from 2021 to the year to June 2026, sales and marketing fell from 40 cents to 20, general and administrative from 40 to 12, R&D from 25 to 10 and stock pay from 50 to 14, while each still grew in dollars; capital spending never exceeded 2.1 cents. The R&D tag includes stock pay: 2025's $558M was $421M without it.
against this
  • Stock pay is still about 14 cents per sales dollar and $916M of unvested awards remain to be expensed (C36), so the cheapest-looking cost is the one paid in shares.
  • Sales and marketing still rose 19% in dollars in 2025, and pilots and bootcamps are paid by Palantir (C34).
historical · FY2021 to the four quarters to June 2026written 2026-10-04
C17facthigh confidence
In Q2 2026 gross margin was 85% and GAAP operating margin 47%; excluding $265M of share pay and its payroll tax, the adjusted margin was 62%.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-03

The last report (3 Aug)

Quarter ended June 2026, filed figures.

93%
Sales growth
against the same quarter a year earlier
18.6%
Growth from the quarter before
against 16.0% the quarter before that
47¢
Operating profit
per dollar of sales

In Q2 2026 revenue was $1.935B, up 93%. Sales to US companies rose 149%, and the US government 90%. Customers grew to 1,049 from 849 a year earlier.

Management raised its forecast for 2026 growth to 82%, from 61% in February. The profit is real but flattered twice: share-based pay of $265M a quarter is left out of the adjusted figures, and Palantir pays almost no tax yet.

What it did to the thesisIt proved the business is accelerating: faster growth, wider margins and a higher forecast for the year. The shares jumped the next day, so the view stays Neutral: the report met what the price already assumed.

The quarter in detail

Sales growth from the previous quarter, filed figures.

Earnings per share $0.41 against $0.34 expected; $0.41 as filed, with no adjustments.

The evidence under this - 6 claims
C02facthigh confidence
Q2 2026 revenue was $1.935B, up 93%: government $990M (up 79%) and commercial $945M (up 110%), with US commercial $764M, up 149%.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-03
C03management claimmedium confidence
Management raised 2026 revenue guidance to $8.150B to $8.158B, 82% growth, from 61% in February, with adjusted operating income of $4.889B to $4.897B.
against this
  • The guide implies the fourth quarter grows about 72%, slower than Q2's 93%, so even management expects deceleration from here (C37).
  • Adjusted operating income excludes $265M a quarter of share pay, about 14% of revenue.
forwardwritten 2026-10-03
C04facthigh confidence
Palantir had 1,049 customers over the twelve months to June 2026, against 849 a year earlier; US commercial customers reached 653, up 35%.
against this

Revenue grew 93% while customers grew 24%, so most growth is existing customers spending more, which concentrates the book on fewer, larger accounts.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-03
C17facthigh confidence
In Q2 2026 gross margin was 85% and GAAP operating margin 47%; excluding $265M of share pay and its payroll tax, the adjusted margin was 62%.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-03
C36facthigh confidence
Share pay was $265M in Q2 2026, 13.7% of revenue, up 66%; $916M of unvested stock-unit pay is still to be expensed.
against this

Diluted shares were nearly flat over the year (C21), so the pay has not yet shown up as dilution.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-03
C30facthigh confidence
In the 2026 sell-off in software stocks the shares fell from $207.18 in November 2025 to $107.27 on June 25, 2026, then rose 29.5% the day after Q2 results.
historical · November 2025 to August 2026written 2026-10-03
What management did with the money

Insiders in 2026Q3: 10 purchases and 48 sales, from their Form 4 filings.

05

The price, and where we disagree

In short. Priced for perfection. Buyers are paying for growth near 50% a year for two more years and fast growth after that, with no room for a slowdown.

Share price
$188.75
close,
Company value for each $1 of sales
70.1
its 6-year normal 20.5

The shares fell almost half from November 2025 to June 2026 in a sell-off across software stocks, then jumped 29.5% the day after Q2's results. Analysts have turned more positive: about two thirds now rate it a buy, against less than half in February.

The next test is close. Q3 2026 results arrive around November 2, and management's own forecast already has growth slowing from 93% toward about 72% by the fourth quarter.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C30facthigh confidence
In the 2026 sell-off in software stocks the shares fell from $207.18 in November 2025 to $107.27 on June 25, 2026, then rose 29.5% the day after Q2 results.
historical · November 2025 to August 2026written 2026-10-03
C29factmedium confidence
When Michael Burry disclosed puts on Palantir in November 2025, the shares fell about 8% in a day and 16% over the month.
historical · November 2025written 2026-10-03
C28facthigh confidence
Twenty of 31 analysts rate the stock a buy, 64.5%, up from 44.4% in February 2026; short interest was 2.74% of the float on September 15.
against this

The vendor's snapshot panel differs from its dated series, 26 opinions against 31.

current state · 2026-10-01written 2026-10-03
C37inferencemedium confidence
The 2026 guide implies about $2.42B of Q4 revenue, 72% growth, after Q3's guided $2.16B, which is about 70% growth on Q3 2025.
derivedthe $8.154B guide midpoint less first-half revenue of $3.568B and the $2.162B Q3 midpoint (C03, C02), against $1.407B in Q4 2025 and $1.181B in Q3 2025
against this

Palantir has guided low and beaten in every quarter of 2025 and 2026, so the guide is a floor, not a forecast.

forwardwritten 2026-10-03
How we read the multiple

Every step assumes the forecast is met. If growth slows to 30% a year instead, 2028 revenue lands about 23% short of what the price expects.

  1. The company is worth about $475B, net of its cash.
  2. That is 58 times the revenue management expects for 2026.
  3. Analysts expect $17.9B of revenue in 2028, which needs about 48% growth a year.
  4. Even then, buyers pay 55 times 2028's expected profit per share, so fast growth has to continue well past 2028.

Against its own history. Far dearer than its own normal on every measure; the business has improved, but the price has risen faster than its sales.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C25estimatemedium confidence
At $188.75 the company is worth about $485B on 2.569B diluted shares; less $9.41B of cash, about $475B, 77 times trailing revenue and 58 times the 2026 guide.
derivedthe 2 October 2026 close times Q2's weighted diluted shares (C20), less cash and securities (C18); divided by $6.16B of trailing revenue and the $8.154B guide midpoint (C03)
against this

The vendor counts about 2.30B shares and reports $433B and 70 times trailing sales; on the 2.40B shares outstanding it would be about $454B.

current state · 2026-10-02written 2026-10-03
C26factmedium confidence
Analysts' consensus puts 2028 sales at $17.9B and profit per share at $3.42 from nine analysts; 2029 sales at $33.4B from three.
against this

Nine analysts is a thin panel for a company this size, and the 2029 and 2030 figures rest on three.

forwardwritten 2026-10-03
C27inferencemedium confidence
The price assumes revenue near 2028's consensus $17.9B, about 48% a year from the 2026 guide, and fast growth after that: it is 55 times 2028 earnings.
derivedabout $475B of company value (C25) is 26.6 times 2028 consensus revenue (C26); $188.75 is 55 times its $3.42 of earnings per share; $8.154B growing to $17.9B in two years is 48% a year
against this
  • If 2029's three-analyst consensus of $33.4B is reached the stock is about 28 times 2029 earnings, a premium but not an extreme one.
  • Management has beaten each guide it set this year, raising 2026 by 21 points in two quarters (C03).
forwardwritten 2026-10-03
Priced against its rivals

Only C3.ai sells the same thing to the same buyers as a large part of what it does. A price comparison needs at least two, so the price is judged against its own history instead.

Private or foreign rivals that cannot be priced: Anduril Industries, OpenAI, Databricks.

Where we disagree with the market

The market believes

Most analysts call it the clearest winner in AI software; a loud minority, including Michael Burry, calls the price a bubble.

We believe

The business may well hit 2028's forecasts, but even then the price is high, so the return depends on growth beyond 2028 nobody can yet see.

Bulls are projecting Q2's 93% forward, while the company's own forecast already slows to about 72%.

The case against us is strong: Palantir raised its 2026 growth forecast from 61% to 82% within six months, and customers keep spending more each year.

What analysts say, and the evidence
Analysts positive
64%
of 31, 1 Oct
Four months earlier
61%
of 33, 1 Jun
The evidence under this - 6 claims
C27inferencemedium confidence
The price assumes revenue near 2028's consensus $17.9B, about 48% a year from the 2026 guide, and fast growth after that: it is 55 times 2028 earnings.
derivedabout $475B of company value (C25) is 26.6 times 2028 consensus revenue (C26); $188.75 is 55 times its $3.42 of earnings per share; $8.154B growing to $17.9B in two years is 48% a year
against this
  • If 2029's three-analyst consensus of $33.4B is reached the stock is about 28 times 2029 earnings, a premium but not an extreme one.
  • Management has beaten each guide it set this year, raising 2026 by 21 points in two quarters (C03).
forwardwritten 2026-10-03
C28facthigh confidence
Twenty of 31 analysts rate the stock a buy, 64.5%, up from 44.4% in February 2026; short interest was 2.74% of the float on September 15.
against this

The vendor's snapshot panel differs from its dated series, 26 opinions against 31.

current state · 2026-10-01written 2026-10-03
C29factmedium confidence
When Michael Burry disclosed puts on Palantir in November 2025, the shares fell about 8% in a day and 16% over the month.
historical · November 2025written 2026-10-03
C37inferencemedium confidence
The 2026 guide implies about $2.42B of Q4 revenue, 72% growth, after Q3's guided $2.16B, which is about 70% growth on Q3 2025.
derivedthe $8.154B guide midpoint less first-half revenue of $3.568B and the $2.162B Q3 midpoint (C03, C02), against $1.407B in Q4 2025 and $1.181B in Q3 2025
against this

Palantir has guided low and beaten in every quarter of 2025 and 2026, so the guide is a floor, not a forecast.

forwardwritten 2026-10-03
C03management claimmedium confidence
Management raised 2026 revenue guidance to $8.150B to $8.158B, 82% growth, from 61% in February, with adjusted operating income of $4.889B to $4.897B.
against this
  • The guide implies the fourth quarter grows about 72%, slower than Q2's 93%, so even management expects deceleration from here (C37).
  • Adjusted operating income excludes $265M a quarter of share pay, about 14% of revenue.
forwardwritten 2026-10-03
C05management claimmedium confidence
Net dollar retention was 157% in Q2 2026, up from 150% the quarter before: existing customers spent 57% more than a year earlier.
against this

The metric is stated on the call and its definition is not in the 10-Q, so it cannot be recomputed from filed figures.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-03
06

What could go wrong, and how we would know

The risks

  • Growth slows faster than priced. At 30% growth a year, 2028 revenue lands 23% below what the price expects.
  • Contracts can be cancelled. Most contracts can be ended at will; only $4.9B of $13.1B agreed is firm.
  • AI labs sell direct. OpenAI and others now offer companies their own platforms for AI agents, aimed at the same buyers.
  • Defence budgets and rivals. US government is 42% of revenue, and Anduril won the prototype for the Army's next command system.
  • Founders control the vote. The three founders hold close to half the votes through a special share class, so outsiders cannot change pay or strategy.
  • Share pay is a real cost. Stock given to staff costs about 14% of revenue and is left out of the adjusted profit figures.
The evidence under this - 7 claims
C27inferencemedium confidence
The price assumes revenue near 2028's consensus $17.9B, about 48% a year from the 2026 guide, and fast growth after that: it is 55 times 2028 earnings.
derivedabout $475B of company value (C25) is 26.6 times 2028 consensus revenue (C26); $188.75 is 55 times its $3.42 of earnings per share; $8.154B growing to $17.9B in two years is 48% a year
against this
  • If 2029's three-analyst consensus of $33.4B is reached the stock is about 28 times 2029 earnings, a premium but not an extreme one.
  • Management has beaten each guide it set this year, raising 2026 by 21 points in two quarters (C03).
forwardwritten 2026-10-03
C24facthigh confidence
Most contracts can be cancelled for convenience: remaining performance obligations were $4.9B at June 30, 2026, against $13.1B of total remaining deal value.
against this

Deal value assumes every option is exercised and nothing is cancelled; the 10-K says Palantir has historically not realised all of it.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-03
C11factmedium confidence
OpenAI launched Frontier in February 2026, a platform to build and run AI agents across a company, sold with consulting partners.
current state · 2026-02-11written 2026-10-03
C12facthigh confidence
The Army gave Anduril a $99.6M, eleven-month prototype award for its next command-and-control system in July 2025, with Palantir on Anduril's team.
historical · July 2025written 2026-10-03
C35facthigh confidence
US government revenue was $809M in Q2 2026, 42% of the total, up 90%.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-03
C23facthigh confidence
The three founders control up to 49.999999% of the vote through Class F shares, as long as they hold 100 million shares between them.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-03
C36facthigh confidence
Share pay was $265M in Q2 2026, 13.7% of revenue, up 66%; $916M of unvested stock-unit pay is still to be expensed.
against this

Diluted shares were nearly flat over the year (C21), so the pay has not yet shown up as dilution.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-03
What we still do not know
  • How much the Army actually orders each year under its $10B ceiling.
  • How much of US company growth comes from a few very large deals.
  • Whether the AI model makers are winning trials against Palantir; only Palantir has described any.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C07facthigh confidence
The US Army folded 75 separate contracts into one Palantir enterprise agreement in July 2025, worth up to $10B over up to ten years with volume discounts; the $10B is a ceiling, not a commitment.
against this

The ceiling obliges nothing: the Army and other Defense agencies buy only what they order, and volume discounts lower the price per unit.

current state · 2025-07-31written 2026-10-03
C06facthigh confidence
Average revenue from the top twenty customers was $124M over the year to June 2026, up 67%; the top three were 16% of 2025 revenue and had been customers for ten years on average.
against this

The 10-K says some large customers have cut spending or terminated in the past and required refunds.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-03
C13management claimlow confidence
Management says a frontier AI lab lost a head-to-head trial to AIP at a large Silicon Valley tech company, and the win became a $10M a year contract.
against this

Neither the customer nor the lab is named, and no outside account of the trial exists.

current state · 2026-08-03written 2026-10-03

What would change our view

  1. Neutral→AttractiveGrowth holds and the multiple comes in

    It needs all of:

    • ○The company's value falls to 30 times its past year's sales.checked daily
    • ○Revenue keeps growing more than 60% a year.checked at the next results, due by 2 Nov
  2. Neutral→UnattractiveGrowth or retention breaks

    It needs any of:

    • ○Revenue growth falls below 40% a year.checked at the next results, due by 2 Nov
    • ○Existing customers' spending grows less than 20% a year.checked at the next results, due by 2 Nov
We would also be wrong if
  • Growth in the number of US company customers falls below 20% a year.
  • One of the three largest customers cuts or cancels its contract.

What is coming

  • 2 November 2026 Q3 2026 results: Revenue against the $2.160B to $2.164B guide, US commercial growth against 130%, net dollar retention against 150%, and whether the full-year guide rises again.
Every dated event ahead
  • 2 November 2026 Q3 2026 results: Revenue against the $2.160B to $2.164B guide, US commercial growth against 130%, net dollar retention against 150%, and whether the full-year guide rises again.
  • February 2027 Q4 2026 results, the 2027 guide and the 2026 10-K: Whether 2027 is guided near the 48% a year the price assumes, and whether contract value turns into committed obligations rather than cancellable ceilings.
  • April 2027 2027 proxy statement: What replaces the founders' 2020 grants as Cohen's and Sankar's finish vesting: whether new awards add operating targets or more time-vested shares, and how much dilution they bring.
Since we wrote this
Written
3 Oct
Price the thesis read
$188.75
2 Oct
  • 5 OctThesis reviewThe long case now sits under the verdictAfter the five-name pilot, the owner asked for the long case on every thesis.
  • 4 OctThesis reviewOwner's checklist: revenue streams, cost of growth, management, catalystsThe owner's checklist found the method silent on who runs the company, what growth costs, where the money comes from and what is dated ahead; this pass fills those four blocks from the proxy and filings.
  • 3 OctThesis writtenNeutral, medium convictionFirst thesis: an exceptional business at a price that already assumes it stays exceptional through 2028.

Also checked 2 times with nothing new to act on.

Sources 20

Where this came from

Sources - 20

Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.

  1. S01primarycompany filing2026-02-17
    Item 1 platforms and the Ontology, the competition section naming classes only, sales through pilots and bootcamps, top-three customer share and tenure, top-twenty average revenue, remaining performance obligations, termination for convenience, headcount
    backsC01C06C10C31C34C42C43C46C47
  2. S02primarycompany filing2026-08-04
    segment revenue and contribution, customer count, top-twenty average revenue, remaining performance obligations, the share count, options and stock units, the valuation allowance, Class F voting control, cash and securities
    backsC01C02C04C06C17C18C19C20C23C24C32C36C42C46C47
  3. S03primarycompany release2026-08-03
    revenue by segment and geography, deal counts, total contract value, margins, share pay, cash flow, the raised 2026 guidance and the Q3 guide
    backsC02C03C17C18C19C21C33C34C35C36C42
  4. S04primarytranscript2026-08-03
    Palantir Q2 2026 earnings call, read via scripts/transcript_fetch.py (FMP)
    net dollar retention of 157%, US commercial customer count of 653, total remaining deal value of $13.1B, the Maven program-of-record remark, the bake-off against a frontier lab, the remark on Europe
    Net dollar retention was 157%, an increase of 700 basis points from last quarter. We ended the second quarter with $13.1 billion in total remaining deal value
    backsC04C05C09C13C24C33
  5. S05primarycompany release2026-02-02
    2025 revenue and margins and the first 2026 guide of 61% revenue growth
    backsC03
  6. S06primarygovernment data2025-07-31
    the consolidation of 75 contracts, the up-to-ten-year term, volume discounts and the $10B ceiling; army.mil refused this repository's fetcher and was read by an agent fetch
    Through this EA, the Army consolidates 75 contracts, comprised of 15 prime contracts and 60 related contracts, into a single contract
    backsC07
  7. S07primarygovernment data2025-07-18
    Anduril's prime award; the team list including Palantir was confirmed in DefenseScoop's report of the same award
    The OTA, for $99.6 million over 11 months, requires Anduril and several teamed industry partners to provide an integrated and scalable suite of command and control (C2) warfighting capabilities
    backsC12
  8. S08primaryindustry data2026-01-15
    AI software spending of $283,136M in 2025 and $452,458M in 2026; gartner.com refused, read on Gartner's own gcom mirror
    Worldwide spending on AI is forecast to total $2.52 trillion in 2026, a 44% increase year-over-year
    backsC14
  9. S09primaryindustry data2026-07-20
    the size and growth of the AI platforms and models market and its four sub-segments
    Worldwide end-user spending on AI models and platforms is projected to total $64 billion in 2026, up 63.4% from $39 billion in 2025.
    backsC15
  10. S10secondarynews2026-02-11
    the launch and purpose of OpenAI Frontier; openai.com refused this repository's fetcher
    Frontier is described as an end-to-end layer for running so-called AI coworkers.
    backsC11
  11. S11primarygovernment data2025-05-21
    the Maven Smart System modification and its May 28, 2029 completion date
    Palantir USG Inc., Palo Alto, California, was awarded a $795,000,000 modification (P00005) to contract W911QX-24-D-0012 for Maven Smart System software licenses.
    backsC08
  12. S12secondaryvendor data2026-10-03
    Research pack (FMP market tier, FINRA short interest), frozen at content/PLTR/research-pack.json
    the price history and returns, analyst estimates and rating series, short interest, headcount series and the price-move decomposition
    backsC21C26C28C29C30C31
  13. S13primarycompany filing2026-10-01
    Form 4 filings, read for the Rule 10b5-1 flag and footnotes via scripts/insider_fetch.py
    311 open-market sales and no purchases since October 3, 2025; 178 under plans, 133 automatic tax sales on vesting
    backsC22
  14. S14primarycompany filing2026-06-24
    C3.ai's description of its enterprise AI platform; it does not name Palantir
    backsC40
  15. S15primarycompany filing2026-05-22
    its competition section naming large enterprise software companies among its major competitors
    backsC39
  16. S16tertiarynews2025-11-04
    Scion's disclosed puts on Palantir and the session's fall
    disclosed $1.1 billion in put options against Nvidia and Palantir
    backsC29
  17. S17tertiarynews2026-02-20
    the stated reason for the 2026 sell-off in software stocks
    investors were becoming increasingly worried about AI's potential to disrupt software
    backsC30
  18. S18primarycompany filing2026-03-20
    its consumption-priced data platform sold direct and through integrators; no mention of Palantir
    backsC41
  19. S19primarygovernment data2026-10-03
    contract obligations of $1,979.4M to Palantir USG and Palantir Technologies from October 2025 to September 2026 and $1,020.6M a year earlier; Defense $1,318.1M
    "amount": 1421458694.6, "recipient_id": "11a97fdb-cb3b-16d2-aa67-a0f7b265b4ae-C", "name": "PALANTIR USG INC"
    backsC38
  20. S20primarycompany filing2026-04-24
    beneficial ownership and votes as of April 6, 2026, director and officer biographies, the CD&A (no 2025 bonuses, the 2025 RSU and SAR grants), the summary compensation table and the August 2020 executive option and RSU terms
    backsC43C44C45
Rendered from content/PLTR/thesis.json · thesis reviewed 2026-10-03. This page explains a company; it does not say what to pay, when to buy or how much.