← All thesesSNPSNeutralMedium convictionTuesday 27 October 2026עברית

Synopsys

A Silicon Valley company whose software nearly every advanced chip is designed and checked with, and which licenses ready-made chip parts and, since buying Ansys, simulation software.

Our viewNeutral Medium conviction
The scores
The profile · 1-4
Growth3/4 ↑

Revenue grew 15% in FY2025 and is guided about 15% for FY2027, partly from Ansys; core EDA grew 8.5% in Q3 FY2026.

Business quality4/4 →

One of two suppliers of a certified flow customers rarely leave, half its revenue on multi-year licences, a 45% adjusted margin in EDA.

Financial position3/4 ↑

About $6.43B of net debt after Ansys, against cash from operations near $3B a year and maturities spread to 2055.

Execution record3/4 ↑

Closed and integrated Ansys and raised the FY2026 guide, but missed badly on IP in 2025 for reasons partly its own.

Per share capture3/4 →

Diluted shares rose 18.9% and pay in shares runs about 10% of revenue, but revenue per share rose 23% and buybacks restarted.

Potential3/4 ↑

A market growing about 12% with IP at 20%, plus custom-chip IP and simulation lines that are early and undisclosed.

Risk profile3/4 →

No customer above 10% and long contracts, against China export rules, debt from the merger and AI tools that may cut design work.

Valuation3/4 ↑

About 9.9 times trailing sales; the price needs about 13% yearly growth for ten years, below management's 15% plan to FY2030.

Evidence quality3/4 →

Filed figures carry the segments, backlog and balance sheet, but the growth lines the plan leans on, AOIP and agents, rest on management's word.

The bet · 2-3 years
Safe, little upside1.1×

If it works 1.1× · if it fails you keep about 97%.

The Verdict

We rate Synopsys neutral. The business is solid: it is one of two companies whose design software almost every advanced chip depends on, and customers rarely switch. The price is fair. At about 9.9 times sales, buyers need revenue to grow about 13% a year for ten years, close to management's own plan, while its core design software grew 8.5% in Q3 FY2026. As a bet on its new custom-chip parts business it is defensive: if that works it adds a little, and if it fails shareholders keep nearly all of today's value. The view hinges on growth returning to the plan.

The long caseIf every cloud company designs its own AI chips, each one needs blocks and engineering that only a few suppliers sell.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C31factmedium confidence
TrendForce puts 2024 chip design software shares at 31% for Synopsys, 30% for Cadence and 13% for Siemens.
historical · calendar 2024written 2026-10-27
C22inferencemedium confidence
At $454.33 the company is worth about $93.5B, 9.9 times trailing revenue of $9,416.5M. At a 9% yearly return and a sale at 7 times revenue in ten years, revenue must grow about 12.9% a year; at 5 times, about 16.7%.
against this
  • Management's plan of about 15% a year to FY2030 is above 12.9%, so the price does not need the whole plan.
  • The multiple's own six-year median is about 11.9 times sales, above today's (S20).
current state · 2026-10-27written 2026-10-27
C05management claimmedium confidence
Core chip design software (EDA) grew 8.5% in Q3 FY2026 against a 16% rise a year earlier; management expects double-digit EDA growth in Q4 and for FY2026.
against this
  • 8.5% is below the 13% floor the FY2026-30 plan sets for EDA (C08).
  • Cadence grew revenue 22% in its September quarter (C33), so the market leader's rival is growing faster.
forwardwritten 2026-10-27
C08management claimmedium confidence
Synopsys targets about 15% yearly revenue growth from FY2026 to FY2030, with EDA at 13% or more, simulation at 10% or more and Design IP at 17% or more, an adjusted margin near 50% in FY2030, and up to half of free cash flow returned in buybacks.
against this
  • Design IP shrank 8% in FY2025 (C02), and the IP target was raised a year later from mid-teens.
  • The industry grew 11.2% over the last four quarters (C30), so the plan asks Synopsys to outgrow it for five years.
forwardwritten 2026-10-27
C09management claimmedium confidence
Synopsys says its custom-chip IP business (AOIP) will reach $1B of revenue by 2030 on contracts already signed, including about $1B of licence fees from Amazon over several generations of three products, with royalties on top once chips ship.
against this
  • The figure is management's alone: nothing is filed for AOIP and the Amazon agreement's terms are not public.
  • Royalties start only when the chips are produced, which management places around 2028.
forwardwritten 2026-10-27
01

The company

Before a chip is built, its design has to be turned into billions of transistors, laid out and checked against the factory's rules. One mistake found after manufacture can cost a year. Synopsys sells the software that does this, hardware that runs a design fast enough to test real software on it, and, since buying Ansys, simulation of heat and stress.

Its buyers are chip and system makers. Without it they would use Cadence's or Siemens's tools, or build their own.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C01facthigh confidence
Synopsys sells chip design software, simulation software from Ansys and licensed chip building blocks (design IP) to chip and system makers. It reports two segments, Design Automation and Design IP.
current state · 2026-07-31written 2026-10-27
C29management claimmedium confidence
Hardware for testing chip designs before they are built had a record quarter in Q3 FY2026, with 12 new and 66 repeat customer wins.
against this
  • Hardware is recognised upfront, so a record quarter can pull revenue forward from later ones.
  • Cadence also reported record results in the same market (C33).
historical · Q3 FY2026written 2026-10-27
C27management claimmedium confidence
Synopsys launched Multiphysics Fusion in Q3 FY2026, putting Ansys's heat analysis inside its chip design flow, with Nvidia, Cisco, MediaTek and Samsung Foundry among those validating it; revenue is expected from 2027.
against this
  • No revenue is reported yet and launches of combined tools often take years to be adopted.
  • Cadence sells its own chip-and-system simulation (C32), so a combined flow is not unique to Synopsys.
forwardwritten 2026-10-27
C46facthigh confidence
Synopsys had about 28,000 employees at the end of FY2025, about 75% engineers, up about 40% with Ansys.
current state · 2025-10-31written 2026-10-27

How it makes money

Most customers sign licences of about three years and pay over the term; about half of FY2025 revenue came that way. The rest is software and hardware paid for upfront, and support. The chip parts business licenses each block per design and sometimes earns a royalty on every chip sold. No customer was a tenth of FY2025 revenue.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C12facthigh confidence
In FY2025, 49% of revenue was time-based licences, 29% licences and hardware recognised upfront and 22% maintenance and services.
historical · FY2025written 2026-10-27
C11facthigh confidence
One customer was 12.6% of revenue in FY2024 and 13.5% in FY2023; the FY2025 10-K names no customer at 10%.
current state · 2025-10-31written 2026-10-27
C02facthigh confidence
FY2025 revenue was $7,054.2M, up 15%, with Ansys adding $756.6M from July: Design Automation $5,302.4M, up 26%, and Design IP $1,751.8M, down 8%.
historical · FY2025written 2026-10-27
Where the money comes from, stream by stream
StreamShare of sales (FY2025)How it earns it
Chip design software and hardware (EDA)62%Design, verification and manufacturing-check tools and emulation hardware, mostly on three-year time-based licences.
Design IP25%Pre-built interface, memory, security and foundation blocks licensed per design, with some royalties.
Ansys simulation and analysis11%Heat, stress, fluid and electromagnetic simulation for chip and system makers, from July 2025 only.
Other2%Services and the optical software sold in October 2025.

Who runs it

Sassine Ghazi has been chief executive since January 2024, after founder Aart de Geus moved to executive chair; Shelagh Glaser is finance chief, and Siemens's former design software head now runs sales. Directors and officers own under 1% of the shares. Half the bonus rides on revenue and half on adjusted margin, and nothing on reported profit or cash. Insiders sold over the year and bought nothing.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C35facthigh confidence
Sassine Ghazi has been chief executive since January 2024, founder Aart de Geus is executive chair, Shelagh Glaser has been finance chief since December 2022, and Mike Ellow, formerly head of Siemens EDA, became revenue chief in November 2025.
current state · 2026-02-19written 2026-10-27
C36facthigh confidence
Directors and officers together held 1,074,598 shares, under 1%; de Geus 589,814 and Ghazi 200,811.
current state · 2026-02-17written 2026-10-27
C37facthigh confidence
The yearly bonus pays half on revenue and half on adjusted operating margin, which reached 36.3% in FY2025 against a 40% target; performance shares pay on three-year revenue growth adjusted for returns against peers.
current state · 2026-02-19written 2026-10-27
C38facthigh confidence
In the past year insiders made 14 open-market sales of 138,273 shares, 10 of them under pre-set plans, and no purchases.
current state · 2026-10-27written 2026-10-27
02

Why it wins, and who could beat it

Why customers come back

Chip teams build years of scripts, training and checked methods around one vendor's tools, and the factories certify those tools for each new process. Changing risks a failed chip, so few do.

An outside count puts Synopsys at 31% of the market and Cadence at 30%, with Siemens far behind. Contracted revenue not yet earned was $10.9B in July 2026, more than a year of sales.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C31factmedium confidence
TrendForce puts 2024 chip design software shares at 31% for Synopsys, 30% for Cadence and 13% for Siemens.
historical · calendar 2024written 2026-10-27
C12facthigh confidence
In FY2025, 49% of revenue was time-based licences, 29% licences and hardware recognised upfront and 22% maintenance and services.
historical · FY2025written 2026-10-27
C10facthigh confidence
Backlog was $10.9B at 31 July 2026, about 49% due within twelve months, against $11.4B at 31 October 2025 and $8.1B a year before that.
current state · 2026-07-31written 2026-10-27
C32facthigh confidence
Cadence's 10-K names Synopsys, Ansys and Siemens EDA as its key competitors, and in-house tools at electronics makers.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-27

The threat

Cadence sells the same tools to the same customers and grew 22% in its latest quarter. Chinese makers, backed by their government, are building their own tools as US export rules shut Synopsys out at times. The newest threat is AI: an analyst asked whether customers' own AI could bypass licensed tools, and only Synopsys has answered.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C32facthigh confidence
Cadence's 10-K names Synopsys, Ansys and Siemens EDA as its key competitors, and in-house tools at electronics makers.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-27
C33facthigh confidence
Cadence reported September-quarter 2026 revenue of $1.633B, up 22%, a record backlog of $8.2B, and raised its 2026 growth outlook to 21%.
historical · Q3 calendar 2026written 2026-10-27
C47facthigh confidence
Synopsys's 10-K names no rival company: it competes with other design software and IP vendors, simulation firms and customers' own tools, and notes China's government funding of domestic chip design software.
current state · 2025-10-31written 2026-10-27
C14facthigh confidence
On 29 May 2025 the US Commerce Department required a licence to sell chip design software to China; the rule was rescinded on 2 July 2025, and the 10-K says such controls may hit China design starts again.
historical · May to July 2025written 2026-10-27
C44management claimmedium confidence
Asked on the Q3 call whether AI-native design could bypass commercial tools, the chief executive answered that AI models still need physics-based software as ground truth, so they use more of it.
against this
  • The answer is the seller's own; no customer has said how much design work its AI tools will take over.
  • Cadence's 10-K counts in-house tools at electronics makers as a competitor (C32).
current state · 2026-08-26written 2026-10-27

The rivals: CDNS, RMBS, ARM, AVGO, MRVL, KEYS, and 4 more that are private, in-house or listed abroad.

Who else does this, rival by rival
TickerRivalWhere it competesHow far alongPriced against it
CDNSCadencePriced against it: Same productDesign Automation: chip design software, hardware and Ansys simulationOn saleSame product
Siemens EDAPriced against it: Listed abroadDesign Automation: chip design software, hardware and Ansys simulationOn saleListed abroad
Chinese state-backed design software makers such as EmpyreanPriced against it: Listed abroadDesign Automation: chip design software, hardware and Ansys simulationOn saleListed abroad
Dassault Systemes and other simulation vendorsPriced against it: Listed abroadDesign Automation: chip design software, hardware and Ansys simulationOn saleListed abroad
In-houseCustomers' own tools and AI-native designPriced against it: In-houseDesign Automation: chip design software, hardware and Ansys simulationIn researchIn-house
CDNS · RMBS · ARMCadence, Rambus and Arm in chip IPPriced against it: Same productDesign IP: licensed standard chip building blocksOn saleSame product
AVGO · MRVLBroadcom and Marvell custom-chip design servicesPriced against it: Not checkedCustom-chip IP, AI agents and Multiphysics FusionOn saleNot checked
KEYSKeysight TechnologiesPriced against it: One segment only-On saleOne segment only
03

How big it could get

How big this could get

Chip makers spent $5.7B on design software and chip parts in the second quarter of 2026, 12.2% more than a year before, and spending on chip parts grew 20.4%. That is about $23B a year, of which Synopsys earns roughly two-fifths. Nobody publishes how much systems makers spend on simulation outside chips, the part Ansys adds, so the whole pond cannot be measured exactly.

The evidence under this - 2 claims
C30facthigh confidence
The ESD Alliance counted chip design industry revenue of $5,710.8M in Q2 2026, up 12.2%: design IP up 20.4% and simulation software up 7.7%, and 11.2% over the last four quarters.
historical · Q2 calendar 2026written 2026-10-27
C31factmedium confidence
TrendForce puts 2024 chip design software shares at 31% for Synopsys, 30% for Cadence and 13% for Siemens.
historical · calendar 2024written 2026-10-27

Who has signed

Amazon has signed for custom chip parts: about $1B of licence fees over several generations of three products, with royalties once its chips ship, by management's account; the agreement is not filed. The firmer number is the $10.9B of contracted revenue not yet earned, about half of it due within a year.

The evidence under this - 2 claims
C09management claimmedium confidence
Synopsys says its custom-chip IP business (AOIP) will reach $1B of revenue by 2030 on contracts already signed, including about $1B of licence fees from Amazon over several generations of three products, with royalties on top once chips ship.
against this
  • The figure is management's alone: nothing is filed for AOIP and the Amazon agreement's terms are not public.
  • Royalties start only when the chips are produced, which management places around 2028.
forwardwritten 2026-10-27
C10facthigh confidence
Backlog was $10.9B at 31 July 2026, about 49% due within twelve months, against $11.4B at 31 October 2025 and $8.1B a year before that.
current state · 2026-07-31written 2026-10-27
Where the growth is coming from, business by business

Where the growth is coming from

BusinessShare of revenueGrowth: last quarterLast half-yearLast yearShare in 3 years at its half-year rate
License and Maintenance40%+12.4%+13.2%+13.1%8%
Technology Service33%+144.4%+167.2%+132.5%86%
License27%+28.8%+18.0%+34.4%6%
Whole company100%+42.4%+42.1%+40.7%100%

On the filed split through 2026-07-31, if each business keeps its last half-year's growth, the company grows about 65% next year and 125% in year 3, against 46.3% over the last twelve months. Technology Service grows fastest: it grows 167% against 15% for the rest, and would be 86% of revenue by then. A scenario, not a forecast: no business holds its rate.

How we read it: The fast line is Ansys's service revenue arriving with the purchase, not organic growth; the score reads the blend beside core EDA's 8.5%.

04

The results

The numbers

Is it growing?Fast

Sales grew 46% over the twelve months to Jul 2026, faster than the 15% in the year to Oct 2025.

Oct 2021: $4.20BOct 2022: $4.62BOct 2023: $5.32BOct 2024: $6.13BOct 2025: $7.05B12 mo to Jul 2026: $9.42B$4.20B$9.42B
Is it profitable?Thin

Operating margin is 8.5%, down from 24% in the year to Oct 2023.

Oct 2021: 17%Oct 2022: 25%Oct 2023: 24%Oct 2024: 22%Oct 2025: 13%12 mo to Jul 2026: 8.5%17%8.5%
Does growth pay off?Costly

Running costs take 64¢ of each sales dollar, up from 62¢ in the year to Oct 2021.

Oct 2021: 62¢Oct 2022: 56¢Oct 2023: 57¢Oct 2024: 58¢Oct 2025: 64¢12 mo to Jul 2026: 64¢62¢64¢
Does it earn good returns?Low

Each dollar put into the business earns 1.6% a year after tax, down from 13% in the year to Oct 2021.

Oct 2021: 13%Oct 2022: 18%Oct 2023: 20%Oct 2024: 17%Oct 2025: 3.5%12 mo to Jul 2026: 1.6%13%1.6%
Is it making cash?Strong

It turned 29% of sales into free cash, $2.75B over the last twelve months.

Oct 2021: $1.40BOct 2022: $1.60BOct 2023: $1.51BOct 2024: $1.27BOct 2025: $1.35B12 mo to Jul 2026: $2.75B$1.40B$2.75B
Is the balance sheet safe?Heavy debt

It owes $6.43B more than the cash it holds, about 2.2 years of the cash its operations bring in.

Oct 2021: $1.48BOct 2022: $1.54BOct 2023: $1.57BOct 2024: $4.03BOct 2025: −$10.5B12 mo to Jul 2026: −$6.43B$1.48B−$6.43B
Are shares being diluted?Diluting

The share count rose 22% in 4.8 years, and pay in shares costs 10% of sales.

Oct 2021: 157MOct 2022: 156MOct 2023: 155MOct 2024: 156MOct 2025: 166M12 mo to Jul 2026: 192M157M192M
All the numbers

Filed figures from the company's 10-K and 10-Q, read 2026-10-27. Fiscal years end in October.

Oct 2021Oct 2022Oct 2023Oct 2024Oct 202512 mo to Jul 2026
Size and growth
Sales$4.20B$4.62B$5.32B$6.13B$7.05B$9.42B
Sales growth+14%+9.8%+15%+15%+15%+46%
Profit
Gross margin80%81%81%80%77%72%
Operating margin17%25%24%22%13%8.5%
Net margin18%21%23%37%19%11%
What growth costs, per sales dollar
Research and development36%34%35%34%35%31%
Sales and marketing17%14%14%14%15%17%
General and admin7.7%6.8%7.1%9.3%11%7.6%
Pay in shares8.2%9.9%11%11%13%10%
Capital spending2.2%3.0%3.6%2.3%2.4%2.0%
Cash
Cash from operations$1.49B$1.74B$1.70B$1.41B$1.52B$2.94B
Free cash flow$1.40B$1.60B$1.51B$1.27B$1.35B$2.75B
Balance sheet
Cash and short-term investments$1.58B$1.57B$1.59B$4.05B$2.96B$3.61B
Debt$100M$20.8M$18.1M$15.6M$13.5B$10.0B
Net cash$1.48B$1.54B$1.57B$4.03B−$10.5B−$6.43B
Returns and shares
Return on capital13%18%20%17%3.5%1.6%
Shares (diluted)157M156M155M156M166M192M

What growth costs

Revenue grew fast with Ansys, but the official operating margin narrowed sharply, because the cost of the purchase is written off over years, restructuring cost money and pay in shares grew. The adjusted margin, which leaves those out, rose.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C43facthigh confidence
GAAP operating margin fell from 22.1% in FY2024 to 13.0% in FY2025 and 8.5% over the four quarters to July 2026; research spending was 30.6% of revenue and pay in shares 10.1%.
historical · FY2024 to the four quarters to 2026-07-31written 2026-10-27
C23facthigh confidence
In Q3 FY2026 GAAP operating income was $357.5M after $402.4M of amortisation of acquired intangibles; GAAP EPS was $2.84, helped by a $425.4M gain on selling the processor IP business, and adjusted EPS $3.91.
historical · Q3 FY2026written 2026-10-27
C25facthigh confidence
Synopsys expects its 2026 restructuring plan to cost $425M to $500M; it charged $236.3M in the nine months to July 2026.
current state · 2026-07-31written 2026-10-27

The last report (26 Aug)

Quarter ended July 2026, filed figures.

42%
Sales growth
against the same quarter a year earlier
8.8%
Growth from the quarter before
against -5.5% the quarter before that
14¢
Operating profit
per dollar of sales

In Q3 FY2026 sales were $2.48B against $1.74B a year earlier, most of the rise from Ansys. Design software and simulation brought in $2.0B at a 45.2% margin before some costs; chip parts $474M at 26.5%.

Beneath the total, the core design software grew 8.5%, below the 13% the five-year plan needs, against a strong quarter a year earlier. Chip parts grew about 11%, the first sign the 2025 slump has passed. Management raised its forecast for the year again.

What it did to the thesisIt supported the business: chip parts returned to growth and the year's forecast rose. It left open what the view turns on, because core design software grew below the plan's floor while its main rival grew faster.

The quarter in detail

Sales growth from the previous quarter, filed figures.

Earnings per share $3.91 against $3.67 expected; $2.84 as filed, the gap being what the company adds back.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C04facthigh confidence
Q3 FY2026 revenue was $2,476.8M against $1,739.7M a year earlier: Design Automation $2,003.0M at a 45.2% adjusted margin and Design IP $473.8M at 26.5%.
historical · Q3 FY2026written 2026-10-27
C05management claimmedium confidence
Core chip design software (EDA) grew 8.5% in Q3 FY2026 against a 16% rise a year earlier; management expects double-digit EDA growth in Q4 and for FY2026.
against this
  • 8.5% is below the 13% floor the FY2026-30 plan sets for EDA (C08).
  • Cadence grew revenue 22% in its September quarter (C33), so the market leader's rival is growing faster.
forwardwritten 2026-10-27
C48management claimmedium confidence
Design IP grew about 11% in Q3 FY2026 and Ansys contributed about $711M, management said on the call.
against this
  • One quarter's return to growth follows a year of decline, against a comparison weakened by the 2025 miss.
  • The processor IP business sold in June leaves the segment (C24), so later comparisons change.
historical · Q3 FY2026written 2026-10-27
C06management claimmedium confidence
Synopsys raised its FY2026 forecast to revenue of $9.69B to $9.74B and adjusted EPS of $15.04 to $15.10, from $9.56B to $9.66B and $14.32 to $14.40 in December.
against this
  • The raises follow a year in which IP missed, so the starting guide was set low after the September 2025 fall (C39).
  • GAAP EPS for the year is guided far lower, because of amortisation and restructuring (C23).
forwardwritten 2026-10-27
C08management claimmedium confidence
Synopsys targets about 15% yearly revenue growth from FY2026 to FY2030, with EDA at 13% or more, simulation at 10% or more and Design IP at 17% or more, an adjusted margin near 50% in FY2030, and up to half of free cash flow returned in buybacks.
against this
  • Design IP shrank 8% in FY2025 (C02), and the IP target was raised a year later from mid-teens.
  • The industry grew 11.2% over the last four quarters (C30), so the plan asks Synopsys to outgrow it for five years.
forwardwritten 2026-10-27
What management did with the money

Synopsys paid for Ansys half in cash, half in new shares, then sold two smaller businesses and took $2.0B from Nvidia for new shares. It repaid $3.46B of loans in nine months, and in October started a $1B buyback.

Insiders in 2026Q3: 11 purchases and 14 sales, from their Form 4 filings.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C15facthigh confidence
Synopsys paid $34.86B for Ansys, closed on 17 July 2025, half in cash and half in shares; goodwill was $26.83B and intangibles $11.46B at 31 July 2026, against equity of $31.15B.
current state · 2026-07-31written 2026-10-27
C24facthigh confidence
Synopsys sold its optical software business to Keysight in October 2025, with Ansys's PowerArtist, for $578M, and its processor IP business to GlobalFoundries on 1 June 2026 for $443.3M.
historical · October 2025 to June 2026written 2026-10-27
C19facthigh confidence
Nvidia bought about 4.8M new Synopsys shares for $2.0B at $414.79 each in December 2025.
historical · December 2025written 2026-10-27
C18facthigh confidence
In the nine months to July 2026 cash from operations was $2,298.6M, capital spending $156.1M and pay in shares $712.6M; Synopsys repaid $3.46B of term loans and bought back $300M of shares.
historical · nine months to 2026-07-31written 2026-10-27
C21facthigh confidence
On 5 October 2026 Synopsys agreed a $1B accelerated buyback with JPMorgan, taking about 1,735,000 shares at once, the rest settling by 5 January 2027.
historical · October 2026written 2026-10-27
05

The price, and where we disagree

In short. Fair. The price pays for management's plan working for most of a decade, and leaves little room if core design software keeps growing below it.

Share price
$454.33
close,
Company value for each $1 of sales
10.0
its 6-year normal 11.9

The shares fell more than a third in one day in September 2025 when chip parts missed, and have not recovered. At the investor day on 30 September 2026 management set a plan for 15% yearly growth to 2030; the shares jumped 12.8% the next day and gave it all back within three weeks.

The next test is close: fourth-quarter results on 9 December will show whether core design software grows double digits as promised.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C39facthigh confidence
The shares fell 35.8% on 10 September 2025, from $604.37 to $387.78, after the Q3 FY2025 IP miss; the highest close was $645.35 on 30 July 2025.
historical · July to September 2025written 2026-10-27
C40facthigh confidence
The shares rose from $434.94 to $490.54 the day after the 30 September 2026 investor day, then fell back to $430.14 by 23 October; they closed at $454.33 on 26 October.
historical · September to October 2026written 2026-10-27
C08management claimmedium confidence
Synopsys targets about 15% yearly revenue growth from FY2026 to FY2030, with EDA at 13% or more, simulation at 10% or more and Design IP at 17% or more, an adjusted margin near 50% in FY2030, and up to half of free cash flow returned in buybacks.
against this
  • Design IP shrank 8% in FY2025 (C02), and the IP target was raised a year later from mid-teens.
  • The industry grew 11.2% over the last four quarters (C30), so the plan asks Synopsys to outgrow it for five years.
forwardwritten 2026-10-27
C05management claimmedium confidence
Core chip design software (EDA) grew 8.5% in Q3 FY2026 against a 16% rise a year earlier; management expects double-digit EDA growth in Q4 and for FY2026.
against this
  • 8.5% is below the 13% floor the FY2026-30 plan sets for EDA (C08).
  • Cadence grew revenue 22% in its September quarter (C33), so the market leader's rival is growing faster.
forwardwritten 2026-10-27
The betSafe, little upside
If it works
1.1×
from today's value, at the stated multiple
If it fails
keep 97%
of today's market value: the rest of the company, less its debt
How we read the multiple

With its debt and net of cash, the company costs about $93.5B. What has to be true:

1. Revenue over the four quarters to July 2026 was $9.42B, so the price is about 9.9 times sales. 2. A buyer wanting 9% a year, a common yardstick, needs revenue near $31.6B in ten years, selling then at 7 times sales. 3. That is growth of about 12.9% a year for a decade, against management's 15% plan to 2030.

Reported profit is far below the adjusted figure analysts quote.

Against its own history. Buyers pay less per dollar of sales than they usually have, because the merger added slower simulation revenue and the chip parts slump is still fresh.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C22inferencemedium confidence
At $454.33 the company is worth about $93.5B, 9.9 times trailing revenue of $9,416.5M. At a 9% yearly return and a sale at 7 times revenue in ten years, revenue must grow about 12.9% a year; at 5 times, about 16.7%.
against this
  • Management's plan of about 15% a year to FY2030 is above 12.9%, so the price does not need the whole plan.
  • The multiple's own six-year median is about 11.9 times sales, above today's (S20).
current state · 2026-10-27written 2026-10-27
C08management claimmedium confidence
Synopsys targets about 15% yearly revenue growth from FY2026 to FY2030, with EDA at 13% or more, simulation at 10% or more and Design IP at 17% or more, an adjusted margin near 50% in FY2030, and up to half of free cash flow returned in buybacks.
against this
  • Design IP shrank 8% in FY2025 (C02), and the IP target was raised a year later from mid-teens.
  • The industry grew 11.2% over the last four quarters (C30), so the plan asks Synopsys to outgrow it for five years.
forwardwritten 2026-10-27
C43facthigh confidence
GAAP operating margin fell from 22.1% in FY2024 to 13.0% in FY2025 and 8.5% over the four quarters to July 2026; research spending was 30.6% of revenue and pay in shares 10.1%.
historical · FY2024 to the four quarters to 2026-07-31written 2026-10-27
C23facthigh confidence
In Q3 FY2026 GAAP operating income was $357.5M after $402.4M of amortisation of acquired intangibles; GAAP EPS was $2.84, helped by a $425.4M gain on selling the processor IP business, and adjusted EPS $3.91.
historical · Q3 FY2026written 2026-10-27
Priced against its rivals

Only Cadence Design Systems sells the same thing to the same buyers as a large part of what it does. A price comparison needs at least two, so the price is judged against its own history instead.

The bet: what it pays if it works

The bet is on Synopsys's newest lines: custom chip parts sold to cloud companies such as Amazon, design agents and the combined Synopsys-Ansys design flow. None reports revenue yet.

Valuing the rest of Synopsys at a fair price already accounts for nearly all of today's price. If the new lines reach management's plan they add only a little on top, so the bet is expensive; if they fail, shareholders keep the established business, worth nearly what the company costs today.

Custom-chip IP, AI agents and Multiphysics Fusion revenue in two to three yearsCloud companies licensing custom-chip IP like Amazon neededAt the stated multiple
$700.00Mabout 3 at 100% kept1.0×
$1.10B (the big win)about 4 at 100% kept1.1×
$1.60Babout 6 at 100% kept1.1×

To pay 2× (a Fair bet) it would need about $12.00B of Custom-chip IP, AI agents and Multiphysics Fusion revenue (about 48 cloud companies licensing custom-chip IP like Amazon); to pay 5× (a Cheap bet), about $47.06B of Custom-chip IP, AI agents and Multiphysics Fusion revenue (about 188 cloud companies licensing custom-chip IP like Amazon), at the same multiple.

Each row is Custom-chip IP, AI agents and Multiphysics Fusion alone, plus the rest of the company (Design software, simulation and standard chip IP) counted at about $91.00B.

The steps it has to take

  • Done Amazon custom-chip IP agreement signed, about $1B of licence fees
  • Done Multiphysics Fusion launched with Nvidia, Cisco, MediaTek and Samsung Foundry validating
  • Not started First revenue from Multiphysics Fusion due 2027-12-31
  • Not started A second cloud company signed for custom-chip IP due 2027-10-31
  • Not started Royalties from the first custom chips due 2028-12-31
  • Not started AOIP reaches about $1B a year due 2030-10-31
The detail behind the label
Rating
Expensive
the big win's payoff against the 2× and 5× lines
Cheap bet at about
≈ $70.60
84% below the price (close, )
The option
3.5×
what Custom-chip IP, AI agents and Multiphysics Fusion is worth if it works, against what the price pays for it
The evidence under this - 5 claims
C09management claimmedium confidence
Synopsys says its custom-chip IP business (AOIP) will reach $1B of revenue by 2030 on contracts already signed, including about $1B of licence fees from Amazon over several generations of three products, with royalties on top once chips ship.
against this
  • The figure is management's alone: nothing is filed for AOIP and the Amazon agreement's terms are not public.
  • Royalties start only when the chips are produced, which management places around 2028.
forwardwritten 2026-10-27
C27management claimmedium confidence
Synopsys launched Multiphysics Fusion in Q3 FY2026, putting Ansys's heat analysis inside its chip design flow, with Nvidia, Cisco, MediaTek and Samsung Foundry among those validating it; revenue is expected from 2027.
against this
  • No revenue is reported yet and launches of combined tools often take years to be adopted.
  • Cadence sells its own chip-and-system simulation (C32), so a combined flow is not unique to Synopsys.
forwardwritten 2026-10-27
C28management claimmedium confidence
Synopsys says it has more than 30 engagements for AI agents that run chip design steps, and a partnership with OpenAI on a design model.
against this
  • No agent revenue is disclosed, and the engagements are counts of trials, not contracts.
  • An analyst asked on the Q3 call whether AI-native design could bypass commercial tools (C44).
forwardwritten 2026-10-27
C22inferencemedium confidence
At $454.33 the company is worth about $93.5B, 9.9 times trailing revenue of $9,416.5M. At a 9% yearly return and a sale at 7 times revenue in ten years, revenue must grow about 12.9% a year; at 5 times, about 16.7%.
against this
  • Management's plan of about 15% a year to FY2030 is above 12.9%, so the price does not need the whole plan.
  • The multiple's own six-year median is about 11.9 times sales, above today's (S20).
current state · 2026-10-27written 2026-10-27
C16facthigh confidence
At 31 July 2026 Synopsys held $3,607.7M of cash and short-term investments against $10,037.3M of debt, net debt of about $6.43B.
current state · 2026-07-31written 2026-10-27

Where we disagree with the market

The market believes

AI chips make Synopsys's tools more needed every year, so growth near 15% lasts and adjusted earnings rise fast.

We believe

The duopoly is durable, but the price already counts most of the plan, and owners keep less of it than adjusted earnings suggest.

The market counts adjusted earnings and the plan's growth. We count core design software growing below that plan while Cadence grows faster, the fifth more shares the merger created, and pay in shares the adjusted figures leave out.

The evidence against us is real: chip parts returned to growth, the forecast was raised twice, and AI chips keep getting harder to design.

What analysts say, and the evidence
Analysts positive
92%
of 26, 1 Oct
Four months earlier
69%
of 26, 1 Jun
The evidence under this - 8 claims
C41facthigh confidence
92.3% of 26 analysts rated the shares positive on 1 October 2026, up from 69.2% on 1 June; 3.4% of the float was sold short at 15 October.
current state · 2026-10-15written 2026-10-27
C05management claimmedium confidence
Core chip design software (EDA) grew 8.5% in Q3 FY2026 against a 16% rise a year earlier; management expects double-digit EDA growth in Q4 and for FY2026.
against this
  • 8.5% is below the 13% floor the FY2026-30 plan sets for EDA (C08).
  • Cadence grew revenue 22% in its September quarter (C33), so the market leader's rival is growing faster.
forwardwritten 2026-10-27
C33facthigh confidence
Cadence reported September-quarter 2026 revenue of $1.633B, up 22%, a record backlog of $8.2B, and raised its 2026 growth outlook to 21%.
historical · Q3 calendar 2026written 2026-10-27
C20facthigh confidence
Diluted shares were 192.3M in Q3 FY2026 against 161.7M a year earlier; 191,636,646 shares were outstanding on 24 August 2026.
current state · 2026-08-24written 2026-10-27
C43facthigh confidence
GAAP operating margin fell from 22.1% in FY2024 to 13.0% in FY2025 and 8.5% over the four quarters to July 2026; research spending was 30.6% of revenue and pay in shares 10.1%.
historical · FY2024 to the four quarters to 2026-07-31written 2026-10-27
C48management claimmedium confidence
Design IP grew about 11% in Q3 FY2026 and Ansys contributed about $711M, management said on the call.
against this
  • One quarter's return to growth follows a year of decline, against a comparison weakened by the 2025 miss.
  • The processor IP business sold in June leaves the segment (C24), so later comparisons change.
historical · Q3 FY2026written 2026-10-27
C06management claimmedium confidence
Synopsys raised its FY2026 forecast to revenue of $9.69B to $9.74B and adjusted EPS of $15.04 to $15.10, from $9.56B to $9.66B and $14.32 to $14.40 in December.
against this
  • The raises follow a year in which IP missed, so the starting guide was set low after the September 2025 fall (C39).
  • GAAP EPS for the year is guided far lower, because of amortisation and restructuring (C23).
forwardwritten 2026-10-27
C30facthigh confidence
The ESD Alliance counted chip design industry revenue of $5,710.8M in Q2 2026, up 12.2%: design IP up 20.4% and simulation software up 7.7%, and 11.2% over the last four quarters.
historical · Q2 calendar 2026written 2026-10-27
06

What could go wrong, and how we would know

The risks

  • Cadence grows faster. Cadence grew 22% in its latest quarter while Synopsys's core design software grew 8.5%.
  • Chip parts may slip again. The business shrank 8% in 2025 partly from the company's own choices, and the plan now asks it to grow 17% a year.
  • China export rules. In 2025 the US briefly required licences to sell design software to China, which was about a tenth of sales.
  • AI could cut design work. Customers' own AI tools may automate steps they now license, and only the seller says otherwise.
  • Debt from the merger. Net debt is about $6.4B, with $1B of bonds due in April 2027.
  • Pay in shares. Pay in shares runs about a tenth of revenue, which the adjusted earnings leave out.
The evidence under this - 8 claims
C05management claimmedium confidence
Core chip design software (EDA) grew 8.5% in Q3 FY2026 against a 16% rise a year earlier; management expects double-digit EDA growth in Q4 and for FY2026.
against this
  • 8.5% is below the 13% floor the FY2026-30 plan sets for EDA (C08).
  • Cadence grew revenue 22% in its September quarter (C33), so the market leader's rival is growing faster.
forwardwritten 2026-10-27
C33facthigh confidence
Cadence reported September-quarter 2026 revenue of $1.633B, up 22%, a record backlog of $8.2B, and raised its 2026 growth outlook to 21%.
historical · Q3 calendar 2026written 2026-10-27
C03management claimhigh confidence
Synopsys blames the FY2025 fall in Design IP on China export controls, weaker demand from a major foundry customer and roadmap and resource decisions that did not yield their intended results.
against this
  • Two of the three causes are the company's own choices, which it names only after the shares fell 36% in a day.
  • Two class actions filed in late 2025 say the weakness was known before it was disclosed (C45).
historical · Q3 FY2026written 2026-10-27
C14facthigh confidence
On 29 May 2025 the US Commerce Department required a licence to sell chip design software to China; the rule was rescinded on 2 July 2025, and the 10-K says such controls may hit China design starts again.
historical · May to July 2025written 2026-10-27
C13facthigh confidence
China revenue was $814.3M in FY2025, down 22% excluding Ansys, and $255.5M of $2,476.8M in Q3 FY2026.
current state · 2026-07-31written 2026-10-27
C44management claimmedium confidence
Asked on the Q3 call whether AI-native design could bypass commercial tools, the chief executive answered that AI models still need physics-based software as ground truth, so they use more of it.
against this
  • The answer is the seller's own; no customer has said how much design work its AI tools will take over.
  • Cadence's 10-K counts in-house tools at electronics makers as a competitor (C32).
current state · 2026-08-26written 2026-10-27
C16facthigh confidence
At 31 July 2026 Synopsys held $3,607.7M of cash and short-term investments against $10,037.3M of debt, net debt of about $6.43B.
current state · 2026-07-31written 2026-10-27
C43facthigh confidence
GAAP operating margin fell from 22.1% in FY2024 to 13.0% in FY2025 and 8.5% over the four quarters to July 2026; research spending was 30.6% of revenue and pay in shares 10.1%.
historical · FY2024 to the four quarters to 2026-07-31written 2026-10-27
What we still do not know
  • What the Amazon agreement's terms are, and whether a second cloud company will sign for custom chip parts.
  • How much of the growth planned for FY2027 comes from the business itself once Ansys is in both years.
  • How much design work customers' own AI tools will take over.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C09management claimmedium confidence
Synopsys says its custom-chip IP business (AOIP) will reach $1B of revenue by 2030 on contracts already signed, including about $1B of licence fees from Amazon over several generations of three products, with royalties on top once chips ship.
against this
  • The figure is management's alone: nothing is filed for AOIP and the Amazon agreement's terms are not public.
  • Royalties start only when the chips are produced, which management places around 2028.
forwardwritten 2026-10-27
C07management claimmedium confidence
For FY2027 Synopsys guides revenue of $11.1B to $11.2B, about 15% growth, an adjusted operating margin of about 44%, adjusted EPS of $19.04 to $19.12, GAAP EPS of $8.16 to $8.61 and free cash flow of about $3.1B.
against this
  • About 4 points of the growth is the first full year of Ansys revenue moving into the comparison, so it is not all organic.
  • GAAP EPS is less than half of adjusted EPS, the gap being amortisation and pay in shares (C23, C43).
forwardwritten 2026-10-27
C44management claimmedium confidence
Asked on the Q3 call whether AI-native design could bypass commercial tools, the chief executive answered that AI models still need physics-based software as ground truth, so they use more of it.
against this
  • The answer is the seller's own; no customer has said how much design work its AI tools will take over.
  • Cadence's 10-K counts in-house tools at electronics makers as a competitor (C32).
current state · 2026-08-26written 2026-10-27

What would change our view

  1. Neutral→AttractiveA price that leaves room for a slower plan

    It needs all of:

    • ○The company is valued at 7.7 times the last year's revenue, with core design software still growing.about ≈$367.88 today, 19% below the last close
    • ○Core design software grows 10% or more in the fourth quarter of FY2026 from a year earlier.checked at the next results, due by 9 Dec
  2. Neutral→AttractiveProof the plan's growth is real

    It needs all of:

    • ○Core design software grows 13% or more in the first quarter of FY2027 from a year earlier.checked at the next results, due by 9 Dec
    • ○Chip parts revenue grows 17% or more in the first quarter of FY2027 from a year earlier.checked at the next results, due by 9 Dec
We would also be wrong if
  • The US again requires licences to sell design software to China.
  • A large customer says its own AI tools replace licensed design software.

What is coming

  • 9 December 2026 Q4 FY2026 results: Whether EDA grows double digits in Q4 as promised, IP keeps growing and FY2027 is guided again at about 15%.
Every dated event ahead
  • 9 December 2026 Q4 FY2026 results: Whether EDA grows double digits in Q4 as promised, IP keeps growing and FY2027 is guided again at about 15%.
  • 5 January 2027 Settlement of the $1B accelerated buyback: How many shares the buyback took in all.
  • 28 February 2027 Q1 FY2027 results, the first with the new segment reporting: Organic EDA growth with Ansys's chip simulation inside it, and the first quarter of the FY2027 plan.
Since we wrote this
Written
27 Oct
Price the thesis read
$454.33
26 Oct
  • 27 OctThesis writtenNeutral, medium convictionWritten six weeks before Q4 FY2026 results, after the investor day's rise was given back and the day after Cadence reported 22% growth.

Sources 17

Where this came from

Sources - 17

Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.

  1. S01primarycompany filing2025-12-22
    business description, segments, revenue by type and region, customer concentration, competition, export controls, the Ansys purchase, employees, legal proceedings
    backsC01C02C03C10C11C12C13C14C15C35C43C45C46C47
  2. S02primarycompany release2025-12-10
    FY2025 results and the first FY2026 forecast
    Revenue | $2,365 | $2,415 | $9,560 | $9,660
    backsC02C06
  3. S03primarycompany release2026-08-26
    Q3 results, the raised FY2026 forecast and the GAAP to adjusted reconciliation
    Raising expectations for full-year total revenue to $9.715 billion at the midpoint and full-year non-GAAP EPS guidance to $15.07 at the midpoint on continued AI-driven demand strength
    backsC04C06C23
  4. S04primarycompany filing2026-08-26
    segments, regions, backlog, balance sheet, debt, cash flow, share count, divestitures, restructuring, the Nvidia placement
    backsC01C04C10C13C15C16C17C18C19C20C22C23C24C25C42C43
  5. S05primarytranscript2026-08-26
    Synopsys Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP)
    EDA growth, hardware wins, Multiphysics Fusion, agent engagements, IP growth, Ansys revenue, analysts' questions
    Within the Design Automation segment, Q3 EDA revenue increased 8.5% year-over-year, reflecting robust EDA software performance and another record quarter for hardware-assisted verification solutions.
    backsC05C26C27C28C29C44C48
  6. S06primarycompany release2026-09-30
    the FY2027 forecast, the FY2026-30 targets and the buyback intent
    Company expects fiscal year 2027 revenue growth of approximately 15% year over year to $11.15 billion at the midpoint of guidance range.
    backsC07C08C09
  7. S07primarycompany release2026-10-05
    the size and timing of the buyback
    Synopsys will receive an aggregate initial share delivery of approximately 1,735,000 shares, with the remainder, if any, to be settled on or before January 5, 2027
    backsC21
  8. S08primarytranscript2026-09-30
    the AOIP target and the Amazon agreement, merger synergies, the segment targets, the FY2027 reporting change
    In terms of royalty, the $1 billion agreement with Amazon, the $1 billion is for license fee, and it is for multiple generations of the three products that I mentioned earlier.
    backsC07C08C09C26C28
  9. S09primaryindustry data2026-10-19
    the size and growth of the chip design market by category
    Semiconductor Intellectual Property (SIP) revenue increased 20.4% to $2,199.0 million.
    backsC30
  10. S10primaryindustry data2025-06-02
    market shares measured outside the company
    TrendForce reports in 2024, Synopsys, Cadence, and Siemens hold 31%, 30%, and 13% market shares respectively.
    backsC31
  11. S11primarycompany filing2026-02-20
    a rival naming Synopsys, Ansys and Siemens EDA
    backsC32
  12. S12primarycompany release2026-10-26
    the closest rival's growth and backlog
    Raising 2026 Revenue Growth Outlook to 21% and Non-GAAP EPS to $8.40 Q3 Recurring Revenue Up 18% YoY, Record Backlog of $8.2 Billion
    backsC33
  13. S13primarycompany filing2025-12-17
    the purchase of Synopsys's optical business and PowerArtist
    backsC24
  14. S14primarycompany filing2026-02-19
    beneficial ownership, pay measures and results, the leadership
    backsC35C36C37
  15. S15primarycompany filing2026-10-16
    open-market sales and the Rule 10b5-1 flag
    backsC38
  16. S16primarycompany filing2026-02-20
    an IP rival naming Synopsys
    backsC34
  17. S20secondaryvendor data2026-10-27
    Research pack, frozen 2026-10-27 (FMP market data, FINRA short interest, Form 4 roster, filed cohort)
    daily closes, the price decomposition, analyst ratings, short interest, vendor ratios
    backsC22C39C40C41C42C43
Rendered from content/SNPS/thesis.json · thesis reviewed 2026-10-27. This page explains a company; it does not say what to pay, when to buy or how much.