← All thesesSTNeutralMedium convictionWednesday 28 October 2026עברית

Sensata Technologies Holding

The maker of small sensors and safety switches inside cars, trucks, aircraft and air-conditioners: parts a carmaker designs in once and rarely replaces for the life of a model.

Our viewNeutral Medium conviction
The scores
The profile · 1-4
Growth2/4 ↑

Revenue fell from $4.05B to $3.70B since 2023; excluding businesses sold, 2025 grew 0.1%; 2026's 4.3% covers two quarters, with cars up 1.8%.

Business quality3/4 →

Approved parts stay a platform's life and top customers average 36 years, but each new platform is re-bid and Chinese rivals ship the same parts.

Financial position3/4 ↑

Net debt of $2.06B is 2.4 times adjusted cash earnings and nothing matures before April 2029, but it is debt, rated below investment grade.

Execution record2/4 ↑

Acquisitions were written down by $697.5M over three years and 'one-off' charges recur; the new team's recent guidance was met, over only six quarters.

Per share capture3/4 →

The share count is flat and buybacks paused for debt repayment; cash spent on acquisitions later written off is the past leak.

Potential2/4 →

Data centres and refrigerant leak detection need design wins to become orders; no volumes are signed, and electric-car programmes have been cancelled.

Risk profile3/4 →

No customer above 10%, but 57% of revenue rides car production and about 20% comes from China, where local rivals win.

Valuation3/4 ↓

About $10.30 per $1 of free cash flow prices today's cash with no growth; not Cheap, since capital spending was unusually low at 3.0%.

Evidence quality3/4 →

The charges, cash and debt are filed facts; outgrowth, content per vehicle and data-centre wins are management's spoken figures, graded not verified.

The Verdict

We rate Sensata neutral. It makes sensors and electrical switches that carmakers and factories design in once and rarely change, which gives it an edge, but the business is mixed: sales have shrunk for two years and charges it calls one-off come back every year. It still turns a steady stream of sales into spare cash, and on that cash the shares look cheap, though not cheap enough for a shrinking business, so the price is fair. The view hinges on the next result: whether those charges stop and car sales grow without one-off payments while world car production falls.

The long caseElectric cars need high-voltage switches and protection a petrol car lacks; if electric car sales keep rising, Sensata's content per car must turn shrinking sales around.

The evidence under this - 7 claims
C01facthigh confidence
Sensata makes sensors that turn pressure, temperature, position and force into electronic signals, and electrical protection parts - high-voltage contactors, fuses, circuit breakers and motor protectors - sold to carmakers, truck, aircraft and appliance makers and industrial firms.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-09-25
C04facthigh confidence
Revenue fell from $4,054.1M in FY2023 to $3,704.5M in FY2025. FY2025 was down 5.8%: organic growth of 0.1%, 6.5% lost to businesses sold and 0.6% gained on currency.
historical · FY2023 to FY2025written 2026-09-25
C07facthigh confidence
Charges excluded as 'restructuring related and other' were $407.4M in FY2023, $324.0M in FY2024 and $352.2M in FY2025, and another $34.1M in H1 2026.
historical · FY2023 to H1 2026written 2026-09-25
C10estimatehigh confidence
Free cash flow for the four quarters to Q3 2026 was about $641.1M (FY2025 $490.2M less nine months of 2025 $338.4M plus nine months of 2026 $489.3M), with nine-month capital spending of $68.5M, 2.3% of $2,929.1M revenue.
against this
  • Capital spending was just over 2% of revenue in H1 2026 against a historical rate above 4%; at 4% the figure would be about $543.8M.
  • Cash restructuring payments are inside this figure and have been paid every year, so they are not a reason to add it back.
  1. 2026-10-27editedre-struck on the Q3 filing: four quarters to Q3 2026
historical · four quarters to Q2 2026written 2026-09-25
C11estimatehigh confidence
At the October 26 close of $40.69 on about 145.5M shares, buyers pay $5.92B, about $9.2 for each $1 of trailing free cash flow, a 10.8% cash yield. Adding $1.87B of net debt, the company is valued at $7.79B.
against this
  • On the adjusted earnings consensus uses the price is about 11.4 times trailing adjusted EPS of $3.61, which reads cheaper than the official 66.5 times.
  • The pack's vendor figure is 10.7 times free cash flow, struck on a different share count and period.
  1. 2026-10-27editedre-struck at the October 26 close on four-quarter free cash flow
current state · 2026-09-24written 2026-09-25
C26management claimmedium confidence
Management says Automotive outgrew production by 2% in Q2 2026: North American electric-vehicle revenue was flat while production fell more than 30%, combustion-engine revenue rose 14% against a market up 2%, and European electric revenue rose 30%. In Q3 the 10-Q attributes Automotive's 2.6% organic growth primarily to a $24.0M termination payment. On the Q3 call the chief financial officer said Automotive outgrew production by about 4% organically with the payment and about 0.5% without it, and that the Q4 guide implies Automotive revenue down about 3% against production down about 4%, an outgrowth of about 1%.
against this
  • Outgrowth is a non-GAAP figure computed against a market weighting the company chooses; FY2025 organic growth was negative against rising world output (C25).
  • It did not outgrow in China in the same quarter (C21).
  • Without the $24.0M payment Automotive organic growth in Q3 was about -1.9%; whether it outgrew production is not in the filings.
  1. 2026-10-27editedQ3 10-Q attributes Automotive growth to the termination payment
  2. 2026-10-28editedQ3 call: Automotive outgrew production by about 4% with the payment and 0.5% without; the Q4 guide implies about 1% outgrowth on revenue down about 3%
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-09-25
C42facthigh confidence
Of 13 analysts in the vendor's panel on September 1, 2026, 46.2% rated the shares a buy, against 50.0% of 16 in January; consensus EPS for 2027 is $4.09 from 7 analysts, on the adjusted basis.
current state · 2026-09-01written 2026-09-25
01

The company

A modern car reads dozens of signals: tyre pressure, brake pressure, exhaust temperature. Sensata makes the sensors that turn those into electronic readings, and the high-voltage switches and fuses that connect and cut off an electric car's battery. American law requires a tyre pressure monitor in every covered vehicle.

It sells to carmakers and to truck, aircraft and appliance makers. The alternative is a rival's approved part; TE Connectivity and Littelfuse both name Sensata as a competitor.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C01facthigh confidence
Sensata makes sensors that turn pressure, temperature, position and force into electronic signals, and electrical protection parts - high-voltage contactors, fuses, circuit breakers and motor protectors - sold to carmakers, truck, aircraft and appliance makers and industrial firms.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-09-25
C36facthigh confidence
US vehicle safety standard FMVSS 138 requires each covered vehicle to carry a tyre pressure monitoring system.
current state · 2026-09-25written 2026-09-25
C30facthigh confidence
Littelfuse's 10-K names Sensata among its Transportation competitors and describes itself as a primary supplier of circuit protection and sensing to carmakers through tier-one suppliers.
current state · 2025-12-27written 2026-09-25
C31facthigh confidence
TE Connectivity's 10-K names Sensata among the major competitors of its Transportation Solutions segment, which sells sensors and relays alongside connectors.
current state · 2025-09-26written 2026-09-25

How it makes money

Sensata wins a part on a new model and is paid for every unit the customer builds, for the model's five to seven years. Contracts rarely fix volumes, so revenue follows production. Cars are 57.0% of sales; industrial and aerospace customers make up the rest, and in the June quarter earned 27.1% and 27.8% on each sales dollar, against 24.2% for cars.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C16management claimmedium confidence
Sensata says its sensors are customised and certified for each vehicle platform, so they are rarely changed during a platform's life, typically five to seven years.
against this
  • The same 10-K says customers demand annual price reductions, may add suppliers, and some can make these parts themselves (C19).
  • Its China content per vehicle is under half North America's (C20), where local makers win on price.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-09-25
C49facthigh confidence
Sensata's 10-K says revenue from awards depends on how many products customers actually build and when, and that many customer agreements are supply contracts without fixed volumes.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-09-25
C02facthigh confidence
In FY2025 Automotive was $2,111.7M of revenue (57.0%), Industrials $787.8M (21.3%) and Aerospace, Defense and Commercial Equipment $805.0M (21.7%) of $3,704.5M.
historical · FY2025written 2026-09-25
C03facthigh confidence
In Q2 2026 segment operating margins were 24.2% in Automotive on $544.8M, 27.1% in Industrials on $212.1M and 27.8% in Aerospace, Defense and Commercial Equipment on $233.7M, before $74.8M of corporate costs.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-09-25
Where the money comes from, stream by stream
StreamShare of sales (FY2025)How it earns it
Automotive57.0%Sensors, electrical protection and high-voltage parts designed into car platforms, sold to carmakers and their suppliers, plus aftermarket parts.
Industrials21.3%Sensors for industrial equipment and heating and cooling, and Dynapower power conversion for energy storage and electrical infrastructure.
Aerospace, Defense and Commercial Equipment21.7%Sensing, power conversion and electrical protection for aircraft, defence systems, trucks and heavy equipment.

Who runs it

Stephan von Schuckmann, who ran electric-car and purchasing businesses at the German parts maker ZF, became chief executive in January 2025; Andrew Lynch, at Sensata since 2009, became finance chief that July. Since then the company has paid down debt and hit its quarterly forecasts, but costs it calls one-off kept coming. Insiders own under 1%. The bonus pays on adjusted profit margin and cash flow, the share awards on the stock against peers and on return on capital, and all of them leave those recurring costs out.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C54facthigh confidence
Stephan von Schuckmann became chief executive on January 1, 2025, from ZF Friedrichshafen's management board, where he ran electric mobility, procurement and Asia Pacific from 2021 to 2024. Andrew Lynch, at Sensata since 2009 and head of investor relations from 2024, became interim finance chief in May 2025 and chief financial officer in July 2025, after Brian Roberts resigned.
current state · 2026-04-29written 2026-10-04
C55facthigh confidence
From FY2023 to FY2025 Sensata repaid $1,903.0M of debt against $500.0M borrowed, bought back $277.9M of shares against $93.5M of stock pay, paid $214.1M of dividends and made no acquisitions, while selling businesses for $188.4M; diluted shares fell from 152.1M to 147.1M.
against this
  • The businesses bought before were written down by $697.5M over the same three years and Insights was sold at a loss (C08), so the record includes what the earlier deals cost.
  • In H1 2026 buybacks fell to $25.1M as cash went to debt (C14).
historical · FY2023 to FY2025written 2026-10-04
C52facthigh confidence
As of March 30, 2026 the 16 directors and executive officers as a group owned 948,710 shares, under 1% of the 145,108,151 in issue; the largest, director and former interim chief executive Martha Sullivan, held 643,022 and the chief executive 36,821. Vanguard (10.0%), Artisan (9.0%), BlackRock (9.0%), Janus Henderson (6.9%) and T. Rowe Price (5.3%) were the holders above 5%.
current state · 2026-03-30written 2026-10-04
C53facthigh confidence
Sensata's 2025 annual bonus paid half on adjusted operating income margin (target 19.2%) and half on adjusted free cash flow (target $380M), and paid 108% of target; the 2025 long-term awards were about 55% PRSUs, vesting on three-year relative shareholder return and ROIC (target 10.5%), and 45% time-vesting RSUs.
against this
  • The bonus margin and the PRSUs' ROIC both exclude restructuring charges and acquisition amortisation, so the charges above $300M a year (C07) that C50 says recur cost the pay plan nothing.
  • The 2023 PRSUs vested at only 75% of target, as relative return ranked in the 13th and 38th percentiles in 2023 and 2024, so the long-term awards have not paid regardless of results.
historical · FY2025written 2026-10-04
C07facthigh confidence
Charges excluded as 'restructuring related and other' were $407.4M in FY2023, $324.0M in FY2024 and $352.2M in FY2025, and another $34.1M in H1 2026.
historical · FY2023 to H1 2026written 2026-09-25
02

Why it wins, and who could beat it

Why customers come back

Once a carmaker approves a part from a particular plant for a model, changing it means approval all over again under the industry's own process, and a bad part can mean a recall: one switch from the business Sensata grew out of cost Ford a recall of 4.5 million vehicles in 2009. So the incumbent keeps it for the model's life.

The lock lasts one model; at the next, the part is bid again on price. Still, its top ten customers have bought from it for 36 years on average.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C17facthigh confidence
The car industry's own standard makes the Production Part Approval Process the contractual submission for a part moving from a supplier to its customer, so a new supplier's part must be approved before it is used.
current state · 2026-09-25written 2026-09-25
C18facthigh confidence
In 2009 Ford recalled about 4.5 million vehicles because a Texas Instruments speed-control switch could leak, overheat, smoke or burn. Texas Instruments' sensors business became Sensata in 2006.
historical · 2009written 2026-09-25
C16management claimmedium confidence
Sensata says its sensors are customised and certified for each vehicle platform, so they are rarely changed during a platform's life, typically five to seven years.
against this
  • The same 10-K says customers demand annual price reductions, may add suppliers, and some can make these parts themselves (C19).
  • Its China content per vehicle is under half North America's (C20), where local makers win on price.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-09-25
C15facthigh confidence
No customer exceeded 10% of revenue in 2023, 2024 or 2025, and Sensata's top ten customers have bought from it for an average of 36 years.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-09-25

The threat

The danger is China. Chinese makers such as Hongfa sell the same battery switches to local carmakers at local cost, and Sensata's own report says low-cost Chinese firms are entering its industrial markets. More than 90% of its new China business is with local carmakers, where it earns under $20 a car against the mid-$30s in North America.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C29facthigh confidence
Hongfa, a Chinese relay maker, sells high-voltage DC relays, battery disconnect units and power distribution units to carmakers and tier-one suppliers, and relays for air-conditioners and refrigerators.
current state · 2026-09-25written 2026-09-25
C19facthigh confidence
Sensata's 10-K says customers demand annual price cuts, some could make the parts themselves, some rivals are controlled by carmakers or their suppliers, and low-cost Chinese makers are entering Industrials.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-09-25
C21management claimmedium confidence
Management says more than 90% of its new China business is with local carmakers, that share moving to local carmakers is a mix headwind, and that it did not outgrow production in China in Q2 2026.
against this

Management also says integrating with battery makers gives it access to many Chinese carmakers at once; that is not yet in the revenue.

current state · 2026-07-29written 2026-09-25
C20management claimmedium confidence
Management says Sensata's content per vehicle is in the mid-$30s in North America, the high-$30s in Europe and just under $20 in China.
against this

The figures are spoken, not filed, and the method - which vehicles, which products - is not given.

current state · 2026-07-29written 2026-09-25

The rivals: LFUS, CTS, TEL, APH, and 1 more that is private, in-house or listed abroad.

Who else does this, rival by rival
TickerRivalWhere it competesHow far alongPriced against it
Hongfa (Xiamen Hongfa Electroacoustic) high-voltage DC relays and battery disconnect unitsPriced against it: Listed abroadAutomotiveOn saleListed abroad
Hongfa appliance relaysIndustrialsOn sale
LFUSLittelfuse, through its Transportation segmentPriced against it: YesAutomotiveOn saleYes
CTSCTS Corporation sensors and actuatorsPriced against it: YesAerospace, Defense, and Commercial EquipmentOn saleYes
TELTE ConnectivityPriced against it: One segment only-On saleOne segment only
APHAmphenolPriced against it: One segment only-On saleOne segment only
03

How big it could get

How big this could get

The world built 96.4 million vehicles in 2025, up 3.9%. Nobody publishes what all suppliers' sensors and switches are worth per car, so the market cannot be priced in dollars. Sensata's car sales of $2.11B work out at about $22 for every vehicle built anywhere.

The evidence under this - 2 claims
C23facthigh confidence
OICA, the world carmakers' association, counts world vehicle production at 92.7 million in 2024 and 96.4 million in 2025, up 3.9%.
historical · 2025written 2026-09-25
C02facthigh confidence
In FY2025 Automotive was $2,111.7M of revenue (57.0%), Industrials $787.8M (21.3%) and Aerospace, Defense and Commercial Equipment $805.0M (21.7%) of $3,704.5M.
historical · FY2025written 2026-09-25
04

The results

The numbers

Is it growing?Shrinking

Sales fell 5.8% in the year to Dec 2025, about the same pace as the −3.0% in the year before.

Dec 2021: $3.82BDec 2022: $4.03BDec 2023: $4.05BDec 2024: $3.93BDec 2025: $3.70B$3.82B$3.70B
Is it profitable?Thin

Operating margin is 6.4%, down from 17% in the year to Dec 2022.

Dec 2021: 17%Dec 2022: 17%Dec 2023: 4.5%Dec 2024: 3.8%Dec 2025: 6.4%17%6.4%
Does growth pay off?Flat

Running costs take 23¢ of each sales dollar, up from 17¢ in the year to Dec 2021.

Dec 2021: 17¢Dec 2022: 16¢Dec 2023: 27¢Dec 2024: 26¢Dec 2025: 23¢17¢23¢
Does it earn good returns?Low

Shareholders' money earned 1.1% a year, down from 13% in the year to Dec 2021.

Dec 2021: 13%Dec 2022: 10%Dec 2023: −0.1%Dec 2024: 4.4%Dec 2025: 1.1%13%1.1%
Is it making cash?Solid

It turned 13% of sales into free cash, $490M over the year.

Dec 2021: $410MDec 2022: $311MDec 2023: $272MDec 2024: $393MDec 2025: $490M$410M$490M
Is the balance sheet safe?Heavy debt

It owes $2.26B more than the cash it holds, about 3.6 years of the cash its operations bring in.

Dec 2021: −$2.51BDec 2022: −$2.99BDec 2023: −$2.87BDec 2024: −$2.58BDec 2025: −$2.26B−$2.51B−$2.26B
Are shares being diluted?Shrinking

The share count fell 7.7% in 4.0 years, and pay in shares costs 0.7% of sales.

Dec 2021: 159MDec 2022: 156MDec 2023: 152MDec 2024: 151MDec 2025: 147M159M147M
All the numbers

Filed figures from the company's 10-K and 10-Q, read 2026-10-27. Fiscal years end in December.

Dec 2021Dec 2022Dec 2023Dec 2024Dec 2025
Size and growth
Sales$3.82B$4.03B$4.05B$3.93B$3.70B
Sales growth+25%+5.5%+0.6%−3.0%−5.8%
Profit
Gross margin33%33%31%29%29%
Operating margin17%17%4.5%3.8%6.4%
Net margin9.5%7.7%−0.1%3.3%0.8%
What growth costs, per sales dollar
Research and development4.2%4.7%4.4%4.3%3.6%
Selling, general and admin8.8%9.2%8.7%10.0%9.6%
Pay in shares0.7%0.8%0.7%1.0%0.7%
Capital spending3.8%3.7%4.6%4.0%3.5%
Cash
Cash from operations$554M$461M$457M$552M$622M
Free cash flow$410M$311M$272M$393M$490M
Balance sheet
Cash and short-term investments$1.71B$1.23B$508M$594M$573M
Debt$4.22B$4.21B$3.37B$3.18B$2.83B
Net cash−$2.51B−$2.99B−$2.87B−$2.58B−$2.26B
Returns and shares
Return on capital8.0%7.2%---
Shares (diluted)159M156M152M151M147M

What growth costs

Sensata's spending to win sales, on research, selling and new equipment, has stayed about the same share of each sales dollar for years. What squeezed profit was the cost of making the parts, which rose as sales shrank, and the repeated restructuring charges. A return to growth should help margins, but only if those charges stop.

The evidence under this - 2 claims
C56facthigh confidence
Per sales dollar, R&D was 4.3 cents in FY2020 and 3.6 in FY2025, selling, general and administrative 9.7 and 9.6, stock pay 0.6 and 0.7 and capital spending 3.5 and 3.5; R&D and SG&A together stayed between 13.0 and 14.3 cents every year. Cost of revenue rose from 66.5 cents in FY2021, when revenue grew 25.5%, to 70.7 in FY2025.
against this

The FY2025 cut in R&D to 3.6 cents came with restructuring that cost $352.2M that year (C07), so the lower ratio was bought with charges left out of adjusted profit.

historical · FY2020 to FY2025written 2026-10-04
C07facthigh confidence
Charges excluded as 'restructuring related and other' were $407.4M in FY2023, $324.0M in FY2024 and $352.2M in FY2025, and another $34.1M in H1 2026.
historical · FY2023 to H1 2026written 2026-09-25

The last report (29 Jul)

Quarter ended June 2026, filed figures.

5%
Sales growth
against the same quarter a year earlier
6.0%
Growth from the quarter before
against 1.8% the quarter before that
17¢
Operating profit
per dollar of sales

The third quarter of 2026 beat the company's own guidance: adjusted profit per share was $1.13 against a forecast of $0.93 to $0.97. $24.0M of it was a customer paying to cancel an electric-vehicle programme; without that payment profit per share was $0.97 and Automotive sales fell about 1.9% leaving out currency.

Cash was the stronger story: free cash flow was $198.3M against $136.2M, and net debt fell to 2.1 times adjusted earnings. On the call management said the cancellation payment will not recur, that car sales beat production by about 0.5% without it, and that data-centre sales are on track for $48M this year.

What it did to the thesisIt backed the cash and debt half of the case and showed cars just ahead of their market without the payment. The fourth-quarter guide has car sales falling, and the year's one-off charges are heading above the level that would have made us more positive, so the view stays Neutral.

The quarter in detail

Sales growth from the previous quarter, filed figures. The company has restated its own history, so a quarter either side of the restatement may describe a different business; n/c marks one that does not compare.

Earnings per share $0.98 against $0.93 expected; $0.70 as filed, the gap being what the company adds back.

The evidence under this - 6 claims
C57facthigh confidence
Q3 2026 revenue was $1,003.6M, up 7.7% and 6.8% organically; adjusted operating income $215.3M, 21.5% of revenue; adjusted EPS $1.13 against a $0.93 to $0.97 guide; reported EPS $0.78. A customer's $24.0M payment to cancel an electric-vehicle programme sits in revenue and operating income; without it revenue was $979.6M, adjusted operating margin 19.5% and adjusted EPS $0.97.
historical · Q3 2026written 2026-10-27
C58inferencemedium confidence
Automotive revenue was $555.8M in Q3, up 3.7% and 2.6% organically, which the 10-Q says was primarily due to the termination revenue, partly offset by lower light vehicle production. Taking out the $24.0M, organic growth was about -1.9%. Industrials grew 11.8% organically and Aerospace, Defense and Commercial Equipment about 13.2%.
derivedC57 and the Q3 segment table: Automotive's 2.6% organic growth less the $24.0M payment on $535.8M of prior-year revenue.
against this

The 10-Q credits content growth for the nine-month Automotive figure of 1.8%, and management may say on the Q3 call that content beat production; the call was not available on 27 October.

historical · Q3 2026written 2026-10-27
C59facthigh confidence
Free cash flow was $198.3M in Q3 against $136.2M and $489.3M in nine months against $338.4M. At September 30, 2026 gross debt was $2,427.1M, cash $553.4M and net debt $1,873.7M, 2.1 times adjusted EBITDA of $891.9M, from 2.7 times at the end of 2025; $32.6M of debt was bought back on the open market in Q3.
historical · Q3 2026written 2026-10-27
C60facthigh confidence
Restructuring related and other charges in operating income were $24.4M in Q3 and $58.4M in nine months, against $302.5M a year earlier; the Q4 guide adds $15.0M to $17.0M, putting 2026 near $74M. Q4 guidance is revenue of $942M to $972M and adjusted EPS of $0.95 to $0.99.
against this

Q4 charges are guided, not incurred, and the Transformation Plan runs to June 30, 2028 per the 10-Q.

historical · Q3 2026 and Q4 2026 guidancewritten 2026-10-27
C26management claimmedium confidence
Management says Automotive outgrew production by 2% in Q2 2026: North American electric-vehicle revenue was flat while production fell more than 30%, combustion-engine revenue rose 14% against a market up 2%, and European electric revenue rose 30%. In Q3 the 10-Q attributes Automotive's 2.6% organic growth primarily to a $24.0M termination payment. On the Q3 call the chief financial officer said Automotive outgrew production by about 4% organically with the payment and about 0.5% without it, and that the Q4 guide implies Automotive revenue down about 3% against production down about 4%, an outgrowth of about 1%.
against this
  • Outgrowth is a non-GAAP figure computed against a market weighting the company chooses; FY2025 organic growth was negative against rising world output (C25).
  • It did not outgrow in China in the same quarter (C21).
  • Without the $24.0M payment Automotive organic growth in Q3 was about -1.9%; whether it outgrew production is not in the filings.
  1. 2026-10-27editedQ3 10-Q attributes Automotive growth to the termination payment
  2. 2026-10-28editedQ3 call: Automotive outgrew production by about 4% with the payment and 0.5% without; the Q4 guide implies about 1% outgrowth on revenue down about 3%
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-09-25
C32management claimlow confidence
Management says it has won seven hyperscaler platform specifications across six hyperscalers, up from five wins in the Q2 report, with revenue from them starting around mid-2027, and an OEM award for cooling-unit sensors shipping from Q1 2027. On the Q3 call it said data-centre revenue from existing products was $27M in 2025 and is expected to be $48M in 2026, up 76%, excluding Dynapower and the hyperscaler wins, and declined to say whether it would pass $100M a year by the end of 2027.
against this
  • A specification is not an order: no volume, term or customer is named, and management declined to give a revenue range.
  • Dynapower, the acquired power-conversion business management now points at data centres, was written down twice (C08).
  1. 2026-10-28editedQ3 call: seven wins across six hyperscalers and a data-centre revenue figure of $27M in 2025 and $48M expected in 2026
current state · 2026-10-28written 2026-09-25
What management did with the money

It spent the cash on debt, paying $400.0M in June to retire $406.1M of notes, which leaves net debt of $2.06B and nothing due before April 2029. Buybacks fell to $25.1M in the half from $120.6M. The chief executive bought 15,150 shares in March at $33.11.

Insiders in 2026Q2: 27 purchases and 24 sales, from their Form 4 filings.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C12facthigh confidence
At September 30, 2026 gross debt was $2,427.1M and cash $553.4M, net debt $1,873.7M, 2.1 times the company's $891.9M of trailing adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation. In June it paid $400.0M to retire $406.1M of notes and bought back $32.6M more in Q3.
  1. 2026-10-27editedre-struck on the Q3 balance sheet
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-09-25
C13facthigh confidence
No debt falls due before April 2029, when $239.9M of 4.0% notes mature; the rest is $450.0M in 2030, $500.0M in 2030, $750.0M in 2031 and $500.0M in 2032. $645.8M of the revolving credit line is undrawn.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-09-25
C14facthigh confidence
145,535,862 shares were outstanding on July 16, 2026. Diluted shares were 146.7M in Q2 2026 against 146.5M a year earlier. Buybacks were $25.1M in H1 2026 against $120.6M in H1 2025, as cash went to debt.
current state · 2026-07-16written 2026-09-25
C39facthigh confidence
The chief executive bought 15,150 shares in the open market at $33.11 on March 6, 2026. A director sold 268,310 shares at $28.75 to $29.53 in November 2025. None of the year's open-market sales was under a pre-arranged plan.
historical · October 2025 to September 2026written 2026-09-25
05

The price, and where we disagree

In short. Fair. Cheap on the cash, which is real, but not cheap enough yet for a business that is shrinking and keeps booking charges it calls one-off.

Share price
$41.06
close,
Price for each $1 of spare cash
10.7
rivals' middle 21.5
Spare cash as a share of the price
9.4%
its 6-year normal 5.2%

The shares have swung on moods more than on cash: $19.75 in April 2025 on tariffs, $53.55 in June 2026 on data-centre hopes, $41.06 now. Over the year the price paid per dollar of sales rose 33.05% while sales per share barely moved.

The next test is the fourth-quarter results in February. Management guided car sales down about 3% in the fourth quarter on world car output down about 4%, which would pressure the test, so whether Sensata's car sales grow without one-off payments is the evidence the view is waiting for.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C41facthigh confidence
The shares closed at $19.75 on April 15, 2025, $53.55 on June 3, 2026 and $41.06 on September 24, 2026, 23.8% below the 52-week high.
historical · 2025-04 to 2026-09written 2026-09-25
C40facthigh confidence
Over 252 sessions to September 24, 2026 the shares rose 33.75% while revenue per share rose 0.52%, so the price paid for each dollar of sales rose 33.05%.
historical · 252 sessions to 2026-09-24written 2026-09-25
C38management claimmedium confidence
On the Q2 2026 call management said outside forecasters expect global auto production to fall about 2% in 2026, and an analyst put H2 2026 down 4% to 5%. On the Q3 call it said production fell about 2% in Q3 (China down 6%, North America down 5%) and it expects a fall of about 4% in Q4, led by China, and about 2% for the year.
against this

Truck orders and aerospace backlogs, the other 24% of revenue, point up in the same call.

  1. 2026-10-28editedQ3 call: production fell about 2% in Q3 and is expected down about 4% in Q4 and 2% for the year
forwardwritten 2026-09-25
C26management claimmedium confidence
Management says Automotive outgrew production by 2% in Q2 2026: North American electric-vehicle revenue was flat while production fell more than 30%, combustion-engine revenue rose 14% against a market up 2%, and European electric revenue rose 30%. In Q3 the 10-Q attributes Automotive's 2.6% organic growth primarily to a $24.0M termination payment. On the Q3 call the chief financial officer said Automotive outgrew production by about 4% organically with the payment and about 0.5% without it, and that the Q4 guide implies Automotive revenue down about 3% against production down about 4%, an outgrowth of about 1%.
against this
  • Outgrowth is a non-GAAP figure computed against a market weighting the company chooses; FY2025 organic growth was negative against rising world output (C25).
  • It did not outgrow in China in the same quarter (C21).
  • Without the $24.0M payment Automotive organic growth in Q3 was about -1.9%; whether it outgrew production is not in the filings.
  1. 2026-10-27editedQ3 10-Q attributes Automotive growth to the termination payment
  2. 2026-10-28editedQ3 call: Automotive outgrew production by about 4% with the payment and 0.5% without; the Q4 guide implies about 1% outgrowth on revenue down about 3%
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-09-25
How we read the multiple

Buyers pay about $11 for each $1 of spare cash Sensata made last year, the cash left after running and investing in the business. Rivals sell for about $21. That is cheap if the cash holds, though sales are barely growing.

But two things flatter that cash. Spending on equipment was only 3% of sales; at last year's 3.5%, the cash would be about $562M. And the company's adjusted profit runs about $217M a year above the reported one, a gap made of charges that keep coming back.

Against its own history. Cheaper than its own normal on cash, far dearer on reported profit. The recurring charges are what split the two, and cash is the honest measure here.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C11estimatehigh confidence
At the October 26 close of $40.69 on about 145.5M shares, buyers pay $5.92B, about $9.2 for each $1 of trailing free cash flow, a 10.8% cash yield. Adding $1.87B of net debt, the company is valued at $7.79B.
against this
  • On the adjusted earnings consensus uses the price is about 11.4 times trailing adjusted EPS of $3.61, which reads cheaper than the official 66.5 times.
  • The pack's vendor figure is 10.7 times free cash flow, struck on a different share count and period.
  1. 2026-10-27editedre-struck at the October 26 close on four-quarter free cash flow
current state · 2026-09-24written 2026-09-25
C10estimatehigh confidence
Free cash flow for the four quarters to Q3 2026 was about $641.1M (FY2025 $490.2M less nine months of 2025 $338.4M plus nine months of 2026 $489.3M), with nine-month capital spending of $68.5M, 2.3% of $2,929.1M revenue.
against this
  • Capital spending was just over 2% of revenue in H1 2026 against a historical rate above 4%; at 4% the figure would be about $543.8M.
  • Cash restructuring payments are inside this figure and have been paid every year, so they are not a reason to add it back.
  1. 2026-10-27editedre-struck on the Q3 filing: four quarters to Q3 2026
historical · four quarters to Q2 2026written 2026-09-25
C46estimatehigh confidence
Over the four quarters to Q2 2026 adjusted operating income was about $727.1M and reported operating income $284.2M, or $509.9M before the $225.7M impairment: a gap of about $217M a year between the two measures.
derivedAdjusted: Q3 2025 $180M (per the Q3 2026 guidance table), Q4 2025 $179.7M, Q1 2026 $174.1M, Q2 2026 $193.3M. Reported: -$122.9M, $100.1M, $141.6M, $165.4M from the filed quarters.
against this
  • The Q3 2025 adjusted figure is taken from the Q3 2026 guidance table's comparison column rather than the Q3 2025 release, which was not read.
  • Amortisation, $70.0M of the gap, is a real cost of past deals but uses no cash, so part of the gap is not a cash difference.
historical · four quarters to Q2 2026written 2026-09-25
C48facthigh confidence
On the vendor's figures Sensata is the cheapest of its filed cohort on price to free cash flow, 10.7 times against 18.7 for CTS and 24.4 for Littelfuse, and grows slowest, 0.7% against 8.4% and 15.4%.
current state · 2026-09-25written 2026-09-25
C40facthigh confidence
Over 252 sessions to September 24, 2026 the shares rose 33.75% while revenue per share rose 0.52%, so the price paid for each dollar of sales rose 33.05%.
historical · 252 sessions to 2026-09-24written 2026-09-25
Priced against its rivals

The competitors its own annual report names, each confirmed against the rival's filing. Measured on price for each $1 of spare cash, cheapest first:

TickerCompanyprice for each $1 of spare cash
STSensata Technologies Holding10.7×
CTSCTS18.7×
LFUSLittelfuse24.4×

The middle of the other 2 is 21.5. Sensata Technologies Holding plc is cheapest of 3.

Rivals' figures come from a data provider, so read the spread of the group rather than any single pair.

The cheapest of its filed rivals on cash and the slowest-growing, so the discount is its own and matches its growth.

Also checked and set aside: Allegro MicroSystems (a substitute, not the same product).

Private or foreign rivals that cannot be priced: Robert Bosch GmbH, Continental AG, Xiamen Hongfa Electroacoustic, Panasonic Holdings.

Where we disagree with the market

The market believes

Split, and valuing it on adjusted profit that leaves out charges which in fact recur every year.

We believe

The cash is real, but the adjusted 19% margin overstates what owners earn, and thin capital spending flatters the latest year.

The notes that reconcile adjusted profit to reported show 'one-off' charges above $300M in each of 2023, 2024 and 2025. Coverage prices the adjusted figure anyway.

We would be wrong if those charges fall below $70M in 2026, with free cash flow still above $550M after normal capital spending.

What analysts say, and the evidence
Analysts positive
46%
of 13, 1 Sep
Four months earlier
50%
of 14, 1 May
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C42facthigh confidence
Of 13 analysts in the vendor's panel on September 1, 2026, 46.2% rated the shares a buy, against 50.0% of 16 in January; consensus EPS for 2027 is $4.09 from 7 analysts, on the adjusted basis.
current state · 2026-09-01written 2026-09-25
C07facthigh confidence
Charges excluded as 'restructuring related and other' were $407.4M in FY2023, $324.0M in FY2024 and $352.2M in FY2025, and another $34.1M in H1 2026.
historical · FY2023 to H1 2026written 2026-09-25
C50inferencemedium confidence
The adjusted 19% margin overstates what owners earn, because charges called one-off have exceeded $300M in each of the last three years.
derivedC06, C07, C08 against C45 and C46.
against this
  • In H1 2026 the adjustments fell to $60.4M, and $31.5M of that is amortisation of past acquisitions, which is a real but non-cash cost; the gap is closing (C45).
  • Free cash flow already pays for the cash restructuring, so a buyer of the cash stream is not misled by the adjusted margin (C09).
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-09-25
C10estimatehigh confidence
Free cash flow for the four quarters to Q3 2026 was about $641.1M (FY2025 $490.2M less nine months of 2025 $338.4M plus nine months of 2026 $489.3M), with nine-month capital spending of $68.5M, 2.3% of $2,929.1M revenue.
against this
  • Capital spending was just over 2% of revenue in H1 2026 against a historical rate above 4%; at 4% the figure would be about $543.8M.
  • Cash restructuring payments are inside this figure and have been paid every year, so they are not a reason to add it back.
  1. 2026-10-27editedre-struck on the Q3 filing: four quarters to Q3 2026
historical · four quarters to Q2 2026written 2026-09-25
06

What could go wrong, and how we would know

The risks

  • Acquisitions that disappoint. The value of bought businesses was written down three years running, $697.5M in all, and one was sold at a loss.
  • Cars lagging their market. In 2025 its car sales fell 1.2% on an organic basis while world vehicle output rose 3.9%.
  • Electric cars stalling. A customer cancelled an electric-vehicle programme in late 2025, and North American electric production fell more than 30% in the June quarter.
  • Debt. Net debt is 2.4 times a year's adjusted cash earnings, which is why the cash is going to lenders rather than buybacks.
The evidence under this - 6 claims
C08facthigh confidence
Goodwill of acquired businesses was written down three years running: $321.7M for Insights in FY2023, then $150.1M in FY2024 and $225.7M in FY2025 for Dynapower, $697.5M in all. Insights was sold in 2024 at a loss.
historical · FY2023 to FY2025written 2026-09-25
C25inferencemedium confidence
In 2025 Sensata's car business lagged world vehicle production by about 5 points: organic revenue down 1.2% against output up 3.9%.
derivedC24 against C23.
against this
  • OICA counts all vehicles worldwide, including China, where Sensata's content is lowest and where local makers grew; weighted by Sensata's own regional mix the market grew less.
  • Management reports 2% outgrowth in Q2 2026, and 14% growth in North American combustion-engine revenue (C26).
historical · FY2025written 2026-09-25
C28facthigh confidence
Sensata took $16.1M of charges in Q4 2025 after a customer cancelled an electric-vehicle programme, and its FY2025 charges cite 'excess capacity related to electrification'. Q3 2026 guidance excludes expected payments from a customer for a programme termination.
historical · Q4 2025 to Q3 2026written 2026-09-25
C26management claimmedium confidence
Management says Automotive outgrew production by 2% in Q2 2026: North American electric-vehicle revenue was flat while production fell more than 30%, combustion-engine revenue rose 14% against a market up 2%, and European electric revenue rose 30%. In Q3 the 10-Q attributes Automotive's 2.6% organic growth primarily to a $24.0M termination payment. On the Q3 call the chief financial officer said Automotive outgrew production by about 4% organically with the payment and about 0.5% without it, and that the Q4 guide implies Automotive revenue down about 3% against production down about 4%, an outgrowth of about 1%.
against this
  • Outgrowth is a non-GAAP figure computed against a market weighting the company chooses; FY2025 organic growth was negative against rising world output (C25).
  • It did not outgrow in China in the same quarter (C21).
  • Without the $24.0M payment Automotive organic growth in Q3 was about -1.9%; whether it outgrew production is not in the filings.
  1. 2026-10-27editedQ3 10-Q attributes Automotive growth to the termination payment
  2. 2026-10-28editedQ3 call: Automotive outgrew production by about 4% with the payment and 0.5% without; the Q4 guide implies about 1% outgrowth on revenue down about 3%
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-09-25
C12facthigh confidence
At September 30, 2026 gross debt was $2,427.1M and cash $553.4M, net debt $1,873.7M, 2.1 times the company's $891.9M of trailing adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation. In June it paid $400.0M to retire $406.1M of notes and bought back $32.6M more in Q3.
  1. 2026-10-27editedre-struck on the Q3 balance sheet
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-09-25
C14facthigh confidence
145,535,862 shares were outstanding on July 16, 2026. Diluted shares were 146.7M in Q2 2026 against 146.5M a year earlier. Buybacks were $25.1M in H1 2026 against $120.6M in H1 2025, as cash went to debt.
current state · 2026-07-16written 2026-09-25
What we still do not know
  • How much revenue the data-centre wins will bring. Management names five specifications with four of the largest cloud companies and gives no figure.
  • Whether cars really outgrew production in the June quarter. The 2% is management's spoken figure.
  • Whether capital spending can stay as low as 3.0% of sales.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C32management claimlow confidence
Management says it has won seven hyperscaler platform specifications across six hyperscalers, up from five wins in the Q2 report, with revenue from them starting around mid-2027, and an OEM award for cooling-unit sensors shipping from Q1 2027. On the Q3 call it said data-centre revenue from existing products was $27M in 2025 and is expected to be $48M in 2026, up 76%, excluding Dynapower and the hyperscaler wins, and declined to say whether it would pass $100M a year by the end of 2027.
against this
  • A specification is not an order: no volume, term or customer is named, and management declined to give a revenue range.
  • Dynapower, the acquired power-conversion business management now points at data centres, was written down twice (C08).
  1. 2026-10-28editedQ3 call: seven wins across six hyperscalers and a data-centre revenue figure of $27M in 2025 and $48M expected in 2026
current state · 2026-10-28written 2026-09-25
C26management claimmedium confidence
Management says Automotive outgrew production by 2% in Q2 2026: North American electric-vehicle revenue was flat while production fell more than 30%, combustion-engine revenue rose 14% against a market up 2%, and European electric revenue rose 30%. In Q3 the 10-Q attributes Automotive's 2.6% organic growth primarily to a $24.0M termination payment. On the Q3 call the chief financial officer said Automotive outgrew production by about 4% organically with the payment and about 0.5% without it, and that the Q4 guide implies Automotive revenue down about 3% against production down about 4%, an outgrowth of about 1%.
against this
  • Outgrowth is a non-GAAP figure computed against a market weighting the company chooses; FY2025 organic growth was negative against rising world output (C25).
  • It did not outgrow in China in the same quarter (C21).
  • Without the $24.0M payment Automotive organic growth in Q3 was about -1.9%; whether it outgrew production is not in the filings.
  1. 2026-10-27editedQ3 10-Q attributes Automotive growth to the termination payment
  2. 2026-10-28editedQ3 call: Automotive outgrew production by about 4% with the payment and 0.5% without; the Q4 guide implies about 1% outgrowth on revenue down about 3%
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-09-25
C10estimatehigh confidence
Free cash flow for the four quarters to Q3 2026 was about $641.1M (FY2025 $490.2M less nine months of 2025 $338.4M plus nine months of 2026 $489.3M), with nine-month capital spending of $68.5M, 2.3% of $2,929.1M revenue.
against this
  • Capital spending was just over 2% of revenue in H1 2026 against a historical rate above 4%; at 4% the figure would be about $543.8M.
  • Cash restructuring payments are inside this figure and have been paid every year, so they are not a reason to add it back.
  1. 2026-10-27editedre-struck on the Q3 filing: four quarters to Q3 2026
historical · four quarters to Q2 2026written 2026-09-25

What would change our view

  1. Neutral→AttractiveThe price falls further on unchanged cash

    It needs all of:

    • ○The shares fall to 8 times the last year's free cash flow or less, from about 9.2.about $35.38 today, 14% below the last close
    • ○Free cash flow over the last four quarters stays at or above $500M.checked at the next results, due in Feb 2027
  2. Neutral→AttractiveThe charges stop and cars outgrow a falling market

    It needs all of:

    • ○Charges left out of adjusted profit fall below $70M in 2026, from $126.5M in 2025 before the write-down and about $74M on the Q3 guide.checked at the next results, due in Feb 2027
    • ○Car sales grow in 2026, leaving out currency and businesses sold, while world vehicle production falls.checked at the next results, due in Feb 2027
  3. Neutral→UnattractiveThe cash stops holding

    It needs:

    • ○Free cash flow over four quarters falls below $450M.checked at the next results, due in Feb 2027
We would also be wrong if
  • Another write-down on a bought business is recorded before the end of 2027.
  • Car sales grow slower than regional vehicle production for two quarters running.
  • Data-centre revenue is disclosed above $100M a year, from signed orders, by the end of 2027.

What is coming

  • February 2027 Q4 2026 results and the FY2026 10-K: Whether the year's restructuring and other charges again exceed $300M, and the full year's free cash flow and debt against FY2025.
Every dated event ahead
  • February 2027 Q4 2026 results and the FY2026 10-K: Whether the year's restructuring and other charges again exceed $300M, and the full year's free cash flow and debt against FY2025.
  • March 2027 Data-centre cooling sensor award starts shipping: Whether a hyperscaler design win turns into revenue on the schedule management gave, the first test of the data-centre potential.
Since we wrote this
Written
25 Sep
Price the thesis read
$41.06
24 Sep
  • 28 OctEarningsCall read: cars barely beat production without the paymentWithout the $24.0M payment Automotive outgrew production by about 0.5%, and the Q4 guide has car sales down about 3%; cash and debt held, so Neutral stays.
  • 27 OctEarningsQ3 beat, but car growth came from a one-off paymentCash and debt improved; Automotive grew only through a $24.0M cancellation payment, and 2026 charges look near $74M, so Neutral held.
  • 5 OctThesis reviewThe long case now sits under the verdictAfter the five-name pilot, the owner asked for the long case on every thesis.
  • 4 OctThesis reviewOwner's checklist: revenue streams, cost of growth, management, catalystsThe owner's checklist found the method silent on who runs the company, what growth costs, where the money comes from and what is dated ahead; this pass fills those four blocks from the proxy and filings.
  • 25 SepThesis writtenNeutral, medium convictionWritten after the shares fell 23.8% from their June high, with free cash rising while adjusted profit kept leaving out charges that recur every year.

Sources 25

Where this came from

Sources - 25

Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.

  1. S01primarycompany filing2026-02-27
    Item 1 products, segments and competition classes; risk factors on competition, China, tariffs and impairment; MD&A segment bridge; non-GAAP reconciliations for 2023-2025; free cash flow; debt and leverage; headcount; the Texas Instruments cross-licence
    backsC01C02C04C06C07C08C09C10C15C16C18C19C22C24C28C44C47C48C49C55C56
  2. S03primarycompany filing2026-07-29
    segment note with segment operating income, MD&A organic bridge, debt note and tender offer, share count, buybacks, Transformation Plan, cash by region
    backsC03C05C13C14C40C47
  3. S04primarycompany release2026-02-19
    the electric-vehicle programme cancellation charge, full-year adjusted figures, Q1 2026 guidance (quarterly only, no annual guide)
    backsC04C28
  4. S05primarycompany release2026-07-29
    Q2 2026 reconciliations, free cash flow, leverage table, segment margins, Q3 2026 guidance with the programme-termination exclusion
    backsC03C05C07C09C10C11C12C28C37C40C42C45C48
  5. S06primarytranscript2026-07-29
    Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP)
    management's outgrowth figures, content per vehicle by region, China mix, data-centre and refrigerant wins, India plant; nine analysts' questions, none on the recurring charges
    So we're mid-30s in terms of content per vehicle in North America, high 30s in Europe and then just under 20 in China.
    backsC20C21C26C32C35C38
  6. S10primaryindustry data2026-09-25
    the industry body's own statement of what supplier part approval is
    The Production Part Approval Process (PPAP), is one of the most important Core Tools because it is the contractual submission for the part coming from your supplier, or moving from you to your customer.
    backsC17
  7. S11primaryregulator2009-10-13
    4,500,000 potential units affected; what a failed switch costs the carmaker
    VEHICLES EQUIPPED WITH THE TEXAS INSTRUMENTS SPEED CONTROL DEACTIVATION SWITCH (SCDS). THE SCDS MAY LEAK INTERNALLY AND THEN OVERHEAT, SMOKE, OR BURN.
    backsC18
  8. S12primaryindustry data2026-04-23
    world vehicle production, the base of the prize
    Global vehicle production rose from 92.7 million units in 2024 to 96.4 million in 2025 (+3.9%), while global sales climbed from 95.3 million to 99.8 million units (+4.7%).
    backsC23
  9. S13primaryindustry data2026-07
    EU battery-electric share for H1 2026; the H1 2025 figure of 15.6% is ACEA's own release title for that half
    Hybrid-electric vehicles lead as the most popular powertrain choice among buyers, while battery-electric cars reached 20.7%.
    backsC27
  10. S14primaryother2026-09-25
    the attacker's own description of what it sells to carmakers; the same page describes relays for air-conditioners and refrigerators
    Hongfa maintains a stable relationship with global famous OEMs and Tier1 suppliers. Hongfa provides automotive relays, high voltage DC relays, BCM, BDU, PDU, oxygen sensors.
    backsC29
  11. S15primarycompany filing2026-02-19
    names Sensata among its Transportation competitors; its own circuit protection and sensing to carmakers
    backsC30
  12. S16primarycompany filing2025-11-10
    names Sensata among Transportation Solutions' major competitors
    backsC31
  13. S17primarygovernment data2024-12-20
    the outside rate for the data-centre driver
    The report finds that data centers consumed about 4.4% of total U.S. electricity in 2023 and are expected to consume approximately 6.7 to 12% of total U.S. electricity by 2028.
    backsC33
  14. S18primaryregulator2026-09-25
    the refrigerant switch that drives leak-detection demand
    Effective January 1, 2025, self-contained residential and light commercial air conditioning and heat pump products using a regulated substance, or a blend containing a regulated substance, with a global warming potential of 700 or greater
    backsC34
  15. S19primaryregulator2026-09-25
    a regulated sensor in every US light vehicle
    each vehicle must be equipped with a tire pressure monitoring system that meets the requirements specified in S4
    backsC36
  16. S20primarycompany filing2026-09-25
    every open-market trade with its Rule 10b5-1 flag: one chief executive purchase, ten discretionary sales
    backsC39
  17. S21secondaryvendor data2026-09-25
    Research pack, frozen 2026-09-25 (FMP market tier and filed cohort)
    content/ST/research-pack.json
    closes and the 52-week range, the price-move decomposition, the analyst panel and estimates, the filed cohort's multiples
    backsC40C41C42C48
  18. S22primaryregulator2026-09-15
    short interest and its trend
    settlement_date 2026-09-15 shares_short 6612223 days_to_cover 4.66 pct_of_float 4.59
    backsC43
  19. S23primarycompany filing2026-02-24
    a filed rival's description of the same sensors to the same buyers, and the same China and truck pressures
    backsC51
  20. S24primaryindustry data2025-07
    the H1 2025 comparison for the EU battery-electric share
    New car registrations: -1.9% in H1 2025; battery-electric 15.6% market share
    backsC27
  21. S25primarycompany filing2026-04-29
    beneficial ownership as of March 30, 2026; executive officers and the CEO and CFO transitions; the 2025 annual bonus metrics, goals and payout; the 2025 PRSU metrics and goals; the 2023 and 2024 PRSU outcomes
    backsC52C53C54
  22. S26primarycompany filing2026-10-04
    revenue, cost of revenue, ResearchAndDevelopmentExpense, SG&A, stock pay, capital spending and diluted shares for FY2020 to FY2025, the numbers card
    backsC55C56
  23. S27primarycompany filing2026-10-27
    Q3 and nine-month revenue, adjusted and reported profit, the $24.0M termination payment, free cash flow, debt and leverage, Q4 2026 guidance
    backsC10C11C12C37C57C59C60
  24. S28primarycompany filing2026-10-27
    organic growth by segment, the cause of Automotive's growth, restructuring note
    backsC26
  25. S29primarytranscript2026-10-27
    Sensata Q3 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held 27 October 2026
    Automotive outgrowth with and without the termination payment, the Q4 and Q1 outlook, the data-centre revenue and hyperscaler wins, and that no more termination payments are expected
    We do not expect revenue to increase sequentially from Q4 into Q1, and therefore, we do not expect sequential volume leverage to mitigate sequential margin seasonality in the same manner that it did last year.
    backsC26C32C38C61
Rendered from content/ST/thesis.json · thesis reviewed 2026-10-28. This page explains a company; it does not say what to pay, when to buy or how much.