TD Synnex
The world's largest wholesaler of computer equipment to resellers, plus a factory business that builds server racks for the biggest cloud companies.
The scores
Growth3/4 ↑
Billings up 40% and organic, but Hyve's growth rests on five cloud buyers and part of distribution's is PC price inflation.
Business quality3/4 →
Distribution's scale wins share and vendor line cards; Hyve builds customers' own designs against Quanta and Celestica, and its buyers can move volume.
Financial position3/4 ↓
Net debt more than doubled to $4.77B funding inventory, but the revolver is undrawn and the receivables line was doubled to $3.0B.
Execution record3/4 →
Beat its own profit guide every quarter of fiscal 2026, but the 95% cash-conversion aspiration from April 2025 is broken this year.
Per share capture3/4 →
Buybacks cut the count 3% a year, but the Amazon warrant hands up to 4.1% of the company to a customer.
Potential2/4 →
Hyve's upside needs cloud spending to keep rising and five buyers to keep volume; nothing obliges them, and the warrant commits Amazon to nothing.
Risk profile3/4 ↓
One concentration, understood: Hyve's few cloud buyers with cancellation rights and inventory risk held by TD SYNNEX. Survivable, since distribution is two-thirds of profit.
Valuation3/4 ↓
At $12.47 per $1 of operating profit the price needs today's profit to hold, which assumes Hyve's inventory converts but no growth.
Evidence quality3/4 →
Central figures are filed or stated on calls, with outside rates from BEA, Census and Canalys; Hyve's own balance sheet is undisclosed.
The Verdict
We rate TD SYNNEX neutral. It is two businesses: the world's largest wholesaler of computer equipment to resellers, which keeps about two cents of each dollar and turns it into cash, and Hyve, which builds server racks for the biggest cloud companies. The business is solid, but Hyve's fast growth has eaten cash, mostly in inventory. The price asks only that today's profit holds, so it is fair, yet it pays as much for Hyve's riskier profit as for the steadier wholesale one. The view hinges on the January results showing that inventory turning back into cash.
The long caseCompanies and cloud providers are buying computers for AI faster than ever; TD SYNNEX must turn the stock it built for that demand back into cash.
The evidence under this - 8 claims
Management says the Hyve margin fall is mix from one large AI server programme and has stabilised, and that new programmes are neutral to accretive (C14).
Fiscal Q4 is seasonally the strongest cash quarter: Q4 FY2025 alone produced $1,422.1M of free cash flow (S07), so part of the nine-month outflow is timing.
- 2026-10-03editedRe-sourced to the Q3 FY2026 10-Q filed October 1, 2026 (S24); the filed balance sheet gives the same figures as the September 24 release.
- The vendor's enterprise value is lower because it carries an older net-debt figure and a higher share count; its EV to operating profit reads about 11 rather than 12.47.
- The trailing profit includes one-off inventory-price gains in distribution (C21), which flatters the denominator.
- 2026-09-26editedRe-struck at the September 25, 2026 close ($263.03) on the refreshed pack (S23); the share count, net debt and trailing profit are unchanged, so only the price moved: $12.47 against $12.30 at the September 24 close.
The market did distinguish, twice, by selling on the cash objection (C28), and at $12.47 against filed distribution peers the premium for Hyve is small (the cohort in the pack).
- 2026-09-26editedCounter-evidence re-struck at the September 25, 2026 close: $12.47 of company value per $1 of operating profit (C26), from $12.30.
- 2026-09-26editedRe-struck on the refreshed pack's decomposition (S23), whose 126-session window now ends at the September 25 close; sales per share are unchanged, so the whole difference is the multiple.
The company
A laptop, server or software licence rarely goes straight from its maker to the business that uses it. TD SYNNEX buys from about 2,500 makers, holds the stock, gives credit to over 150,000 resellers, and ships and bills. Without it, each maker would carry every small reseller's credit and orders itself.
Hyve is different: it builds racks of servers and switches to the cloud companies' own designs, in its own American factories.
The evidence under this - 2 claims
The CFO said on the Q3 FY2026 call that the programmes are longer-term agreements with cancellation rights on both sides, and that a programme takes about a year to ramp (S04).
How it makes money
It takes a toll on what passes through: gross profit was 4.48% of billings in the quarter to August 2026. Distribution keeps 1.95 cents of each dollar billed as operating profit. Hyve keeps 3.61 cents, but has to buy and hold the parts first, so every new programme ties up cash before it returns any.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
Management says the Hyve margin fall is mix from one large AI server programme and has stabilised, and that new programmes are neutral to accretive (C14).
- Management says mature Hyve programmes generate free cash flow and that customers engage Hyve earlier in design, including liquid-cooled networking racks, which is engineering rather than financing (S04).
- About two-thirds of Hyve billings is manufacturing, not supply chain services (S04).
Where the money comes from, stream by stream
| Stream | Share of sales (Q3 FY2026) | How it earns it |
|---|---|---|
| Americas distribution | 47.9% | Resells PCs, phones, printers, servers, storage, networking, security and software from vendors to resellers in North and Latin America, earning a thin markup. |
| Europe distribution | 29.5% | The same two portfolios, endpoint devices and data-centre technology, sold to resellers across Europe. |
| Hyve Solutions | 17.6% | Designs and builds servers, storage and networking racks to the largest cloud companies' own designs, plus supply-chain services; some programmes booked net. |
| Asia-Pacific and Japan distribution | 5.0% | Distribution of both portfolios to resellers in Asia-Pacific and Japan. |
Who runs it
Patrick Zammit has run the company since 2024, after years running its European business; David Jordan became finance chief in 2025. Insiders own less than 1%, and there is no controlling holder. Most of the boss's bonus rides on adjusted profit, the rest on return on capital, which borrowing to hold inventory does lower; nothing pays directly on cash coming in.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
- Adjusted ROIC divides by equity plus borrowings less cash, averaged over five quarters, so an inventory build funded by debt does lower the payout; nothing pays on free cash flow directly.
- His October 2025 grant was $3.6M of time-vesting shares against $2.4M of performance shares in February.
Why it wins, and who could beat it
Why customers come back
Size. Warehouses, credit desks and systems cost less per product the more products they carry, and TD SYNNEX billed $80.1B in 2024 of a $463B market. As makers cut the number of distributors they use, they favour the largest; its biggest rival, Ingram Micro, names it first.
Distribution billings grew 27% in the quarter against about 12% for American equipment wholesalers. Hyve has no such protection: the customer owns the design and can move the work.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
- HP chose two partners, not one, so the other global distributor gets the same line card.
- Apple is 21% of Ingram Micro's sales against 12% of TD SYNNEX's (S11): the largest vendor relationships are split, not won outright.
- PC units fell mid to high single digits while value grew double digits (C21), so rising prices rather than volume carry part of the growth.
- Ingram Micro and Arrow's enterprise computing segment are riding the same cycle; the cohort grew too.
The threat
For Hyve, Taiwan's Quanta and Wiwynn build to the same customers' designs at larger scale, and Celestica grew its cloud hardware sales 81% in 2025 in what it calls an aggressively priced industry. For distribution, cloud marketplaces such as Pax8 sell subscriptions without holding stock at all.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
The rivals: CLS, INGM, ARW, SCSC, JBL, FLEX, and 2 more that are private, in-house or listed abroad.
Who else does this, rival by rival
| Ticker | Rival | Where it competes | How far along | Priced against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quanta Computer and WiwynnPriced against it: Listed abroad | Hyve Solutions | On sale | Listed abroad | |
| CLS | Celestica, through its Hardware Platform Solutions businessPriced against it: One segment only | Hyve Solutions | On sale | One segment only |
| Private | Pax8 and AppDirect cloud marketplacesPriced against it: Private | Distribution (Americas, Europe and APJ distribution segments) | On sale | Private |
| INGM | Ingram MicroPriced against it: Yes | Distribution (Americas, Europe and APJ distribution segments) | On sale | Yes |
| ARW | Arrow ElectronicsPriced against it: Yes | - | On sale | Yes |
| SCSC | ScanSourcePriced against it: Yes | - | On sale | Yes |
| JBL | JabilPriced against it: One segment only | - | On sale | One segment only |
| FLEX | FlexPriced against it: One segment only | - | On sale | One segment only |
How big it could get
How big this could get
Distributors billed $463B worldwide in 2024. Underneath, American businesses are buying computers faster than at any point in the government's records: $400.6B a year by mid-2026, up 57.9% in a year.
Hyve's one named customer, Amazon, spent $173.0B on property and equipment in the year to June 2026, against $107.7B the year before.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
Who has signed
Nobody is committed. Amazon holds a warrant over up to 4.1% of the company that vests as its payments grow, but it obliges Amazon to buy nothing. Hyve's contracts often carry no volume guarantee, and resellers can cancel orders.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
- 2026-10-03editedRefreshed on the Q3 FY2026 10-Q (S24): no tranche has vested, and the first $14.5M reduction of revenue was booked in Q3.
The CFO said on the Q3 FY2026 call that the programmes are longer-term agreements with cancellation rights on both sides, and that a programme takes about a year to ramp (S04).
The results
The numbers
Sales grew 24% over the twelve months to Aug 2026, faster than the 6.9% in the year to Nov 2025.
Operating margin is 2.7%, about where it was (1.9%) in the year to Nov 2023.
Running costs take 4¢ of each sales dollar, about where it was (4¢) in the year to Nov 2021.
Each dollar put into the business earns 11% a year after tax, up from 5.9% in the year to Nov 2021.
It used $815M of cash over the last twelve months, so the $749M it holds lasts about 0.9 years at that pace.
It owes $4.77B more than the cash it holds, and its operations bring in no cash to repay it.
The share count rose 27% in 4.8 years, and pay in shares costs 0.1% of sales.
All the numbers
Filed figures from the company's 10-K and 10-Q, read 2026-10-04. Fiscal years end in November.
| Nov 2021 | Nov 2022 | Nov 2023 | Nov 2024 | Nov 2025 | 12 mo to Aug 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Size and growth | ||||||
| Sales | $31.6B | $62.3B | $57.6B | $58.5B | $62.5B | $75.7B |
| Sales growth | +58% | +97% | −7.7% | +1.6% | +6.9% | +24% |
| Profit | ||||||
| Gross margin | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.9% |
| Operating margin | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.7% |
| Net margin | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.8% |
| What growth costs, per sales dollar | ||||||
| Selling, general and admin | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.2% |
| Pay in shares | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Capital spending | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| Cash | ||||||
| Cash from operations | $810M | −$49.6M | $1.41B | $1.22B | $1.53B | −$618M |
| Free cash flow | $755M | −$167M | $1.26B | $1.04B | $1.39B | −$815M |
| Balance sheet | ||||||
| Cash and short-term investments | $994M | $523M | $1.03B | $1.06B | $2.44B | $749M |
| Debt | $4.14B | $4.10B | $4.08B | $3.91B | $4.61B | $5.52B |
| Net cash | −$3.14B | −$3.58B | −$3.05B | −$2.85B | −$2.18B | −$4.77B |
| Returns and shares | ||||||
| Return on capital | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 11% |
| Shares (diluted) | 62.7M | 95.5M | 92.9M | 85.9M | 82.4M | 79.4M |
What growth costs
Growing has made TD SYNNEX more profitable per sale: its office and selling costs rose far more slowly than sales this year. The real cost of growth sits elsewhere, in the stock it buys and the money customers owe, which it borrows to carry.
The evidence under this - 2 claims
The costs that grow with this growth sit on the balance sheet, not the income statement: inventory up $5.79B in nine months and free cash flow negative (C07, C06), with interest expense up 32% (C33).
- 2026-10-03editedRe-sourced to the Q3 FY2026 10-Q filed October 1, 2026 (S24); the filed balance sheet gives the same figures as the September 24 release.
The last report (24 Sep)
Quarter ended May 2026, filed figures.
The quarter to August 2026 beat the top of the company's own profit forecast. Billings rose 40.0% to $31.8B; Hyve's more than doubled.
The shares still fell 9.9% on the day, because free cash flow was negative $975.6M. Inventory has risen $5.79B, or 60.9%, since November, to $15.29B, and net debt more than doubled to $4.77B. Management says most of Hyve's build is now in place and cash returns next quarter; no filing shows Hyve's own balance sheet to check.
What it did to the thesisIt strengthened the demand side, since Hyve's sales more than doubled, but it deepened the doubt the view rests on: the growth is eating cash, raising debt and piling up inventory. Whether that cash comes back is still unproven, so the view stays Neutral.
The quarter in detail
Sales growth from the previous quarter, filed figures.
Earnings per share $5.68 against $4.70 expected.
The evidence under this - 7 claims
Fiscal Q4 is seasonally the strongest cash quarter: Q4 FY2025 alone produced $1,422.1M of free cash flow (S07), so part of the nine-month outflow is timing.
- 2026-10-03editedRe-sourced to the Q3 FY2026 10-Q filed October 1, 2026 (S24); the filed balance sheet gives the same figures as the September 24 release.
- 2026-10-03editedRe-sourced to the Q3 FY2026 10-Q filed October 1, 2026 (S24); the filed balance sheet gives the same figures as the September 24 release.
- It said similar things a quarter earlier, when net working capital was $4.9B (C46); it then rose to $6.5B and inventory rose another $1.42B in Q3.
- The 10-K says Hyve's contracts often give limited or no protection on volume or end-of-life inventory (C10), so conversion depends on the buyers' schedules.
- 2026-10-03editedRe-checked on the Q3 FY2026 10-Q (S24): still no segment assets.
What management did with the money
It bought back $292.4M of shares in nine months, cutting the count 3.0%, while borrowing more to fund inventory. Insiders sold and none bought; the chair of Hyve sold about 25,000 shares in June outside a pre-set plan.
Insiders in 2026Q2: 13 purchases and 33 sales, from their Form 4 filings.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
- 2026-10-03editedCorrected on the Q3 FY2026 10-Q (S24): the $1.5B drawn was the U.S. receivables securitization at 4.69%, at its limit, not the unsecured revolver, which was undrawn. The cash flow line's label had been read as the revolver.
The price, and where we disagree
In short. Fair for the distribution business alone. Hyve, its server-building arm, comes at the same price although its profit is riskier and the cash it tied up has not come back yet.
Twice this year the market sold the shares on Hyve's cash use, and once it bought them all back before any cash returned. Over six months the shares rose 64.8%, mostly because buyers paid more for each dollar of sales.
The answer is dated. Results due 14 January show whether the quarter to November turns the inventory back into cash.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
- 2026-09-26editedRe-struck on the refreshed pack's decomposition (S23), whose 126-session window now ends at the September 25 close; sales per share are unchanged, so the whole difference is the multiple.
- It said similar things a quarter earlier, when net working capital was $4.9B (C46); it then rose to $6.5B and inventory rose another $1.42B in Q3.
- The 10-K says Hyve's contracts often give limited or no protection on volume or end-of-life inventory (C10), so conversion depends on the buyers' schedules.
How we read the multiple
Debt included, buyers pay about 11 times TD Synnex's yearly operating profit, the profit from its business before interest and tax, about the same as listed distribution rivals. So the price needs today's profit to hold, not grow.
The catch: about 34% of that profit is Hyve's. Each Hyve dollar ties up more stock, and its buyers can walk away. It deserves a lower price than distribution, and gets the same.
Against its own history. Dearer than its own normal after the six-month rise, on a business whose extra growth is its riskier half.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
- The vendor's enterprise value is lower because it carries an older net-debt figure and a higher share count; its EV to operating profit reads about 11 rather than 12.47.
- The trailing profit includes one-off inventory-price gains in distribution (C21), which flatters the denominator.
- 2026-09-26editedRe-struck at the September 25, 2026 close ($263.03) on the refreshed pack (S23); the share count, net debt and trailing profit are unchanged, so only the price moved: $12.47 against $12.30 at the September 24 close.
On billings Hyve grew 117% against 27%, so on volume and on capital employed Hyve is taking over even though its profit share has not moved.
The market did distinguish, twice, by selling on the cash objection (C28), and at $12.47 against filed distribution peers the premium for Hyve is small (the cohort in the pack).
- 2026-09-26editedCounter-evidence re-struck at the September 25, 2026 close: $12.47 of company value per $1 of operating profit (C26), from $12.30.
- 2026-09-26editedRe-struck on the refreshed pack's decomposition (S23), whose 126-session window now ends at the September 25 close; sales per share are unchanged, so the whole difference is the multiple.
Priced against its rivals
The competitors its own annual report names, each confirmed against the rival's filing. Measured on company value for each $1 of operating profit, cheapest first:
| Ticker | Company | company value for each $1 of operating profit |
|---|---|---|
| INGM | Ingram Micro Holding | 9.4× |
| ARW | Arrow Electronics | 10.7× |
| SNX | TD Synnex | 10.8× |
| SCSC | ScanSource | 12.2× |
The middle of the other 3 is 10.7. TD Synnex Corp is 2nd dearest of 4.
Rivals' figures come from a data provider, so read the spread of the group rather than any single pair.
In line with the filed distribution rivals. Buyers pay nothing extra for Hyve's growth, and in our view should not, given the risk it carries.
Private or foreign rivals that cannot be priced: Westcon-Comstor, ALSO Holding AG, Esprinet S.p.A., VSTECS Holdings Ltd., Synnex Technology International Corp., Quanta Computer Inc., Wiwynn Corporation.
Where we disagree with the market
An AI hardware winner, worth 33.5% more for each dollar of sales than six months ago.
Hyve's profit is worth less than distribution's: it needs more inventory for each dollar earned, and its buyers can walk.
Hyve's reported margin flatters it. More of its sales are now booked net of the parts customers supply, which lifted the margin about 1.9 points; on everything it bills it keeps 3.61%, down from 5.04%.
The case against us: results have beaten the company's own forecast repeatedly, and management expects Hyve's margin to hold. Free cash flow above $1.5B next quarter, with inventory falling, would prove us wrong.
What analysts say, and the evidence
The evidence under this - 5 claims
Management says the Hyve margin fall is mix from one large AI server programme and has stabilised, and that new programmes are neutral to accretive (C14).
The record on cash is the reverse: nine-month free cash flow against a 95% conversion aspiration (C31).
- 'Stabilised' rests on one quarter: Hyve kept 3.3% of billings in Q2 FY2026 and 3.61% in Q3, against 5.04% a year earlier (C04, S06).
- Celestica describes the same work as priced under aggressive pricing dynamics (C24).
- It said similar things a quarter earlier, when net working capital was $4.9B (C46); it then rose to $6.5B and inventory rose another $1.42B in Q3.
- The 10-K says Hyve's contracts often give limited or no protection on volume or end-of-life inventory (C10), so conversion depends on the buyers' schedules.
What could go wrong, and how we would know
The risks
- Cash that does not come back. Nine months of Hyve's growth consumed $2.24B, and meeting the company's own cash target this year would take about $3.85B in one quarter.
- Customers who can walk. Hyve's contracts often have no volume guarantee and no protection if a programme ends early.
- A fading price boost. Rising component prices and buying ahead lifted distribution's margin; management says part of that will fade.
- Borrowing to fund stock. Net debt more than doubled in nine months, mostly borrowed against customer invoices, and more invoices are being sold to banks to bring cash in sooner.
The evidence under this - 8 claims
Fiscal Q4 is seasonally the strongest cash quarter: Q4 FY2025 alone produced $1,422.1M of free cash flow (S07), so part of the nine-month outflow is timing.
The aspiration is medium-term, not annual; management treats fiscal 2026 as a year of front-loaded investment, and one year's miss is not the medium term.
The CFO said on the Q3 FY2026 call that the programmes are longer-term agreements with cancellation rights on both sides, and that a programme takes about a year to ramp (S04).
Management also says like-for-like margins are stable and cost-plus pricing passes cost rises through, which would make the price effect durable rather than one-off.
Management attributes most of the rise to operating leverage and cost discipline, taking more than 50% of gross profit growth to operating income (S04).
- 2026-10-03editedRe-sourced to the Q3 FY2026 10-Q filed October 1, 2026 (S24); the filed balance sheet gives the same figures as the September 24 release.
- 2026-10-03editedCorrected on the Q3 FY2026 10-Q (S24): the $1.5B drawn was the U.S. receivables securitization at 4.69%, at its limit, not the unsecured revolver, which was undrawn. The cash flow line's label had been read as the revolver.
What we still do not know
- How much of the $15.29B of inventory is Hyve's. The company does not report assets by business.
- Who Hyve's new customers are. Management says it serves all five big American cloud companies and names only Amazon.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
- 2026-10-03editedRe-checked on the Q3 FY2026 10-Q (S24): still no segment assets.
- 2026-10-03editedRe-sourced to the Q3 FY2026 10-Q filed October 1, 2026 (S24); the filed balance sheet gives the same figures as the September 24 release.
No programme volume, term or customer name is disclosed, and the one customer above 10% of revenue in fiscal 2025 fell below it in Q2 FY2026 without explanation (C11).
- 2026-10-03editedRefreshed on the Q3 FY2026 10-Q (S24): no tranche has vested, and the first $14.5M reduction of revenue was booked in Q3.
What would change our view
- Neutral→AttractiveHyve's inventory turns into cash at a steady margin
It needs all of:
- ○Free cash flow of $1.5B or more in the quarter to November, with inventory below $15.29B.checked at the next results, due by 14 Jan
- ○Hyve keeps at least 3.61 cents of each dollar billed as adjusted operating profit that quarter.checked at the next results, due by 14 Jan
- Neutral→AttractiveThe price falls to where Hyve is nearly free
It needs all of:
- ○The company is priced at about $10 for each $1 of yearly operating profit.about ≈$210.93 today, 20% below the last close
- ○Distribution still keeps at least 1.8 cents of each dollar billed as adjusted operating profit.checked at the next results, due by 14 Jan
- Neutral→UnattractiveThe cash never comes back
It needs:
- ○Free cash flow is negative again in the quarter to February 2027, with inventory still above $15.29B.checked at the next results, due by 14 Jan
We would also be wrong if
- Hyve keeps less than 3 cents of each dollar billed for two quarters running.
- A cloud customer cancels or moves a Hyve programme and inventory is written down.
What is coming
- January 2027 FY2026 10-K: Full-year customer concentration in the warrant's first year, how much of Amazon's warrant has vested, its revenue reduction, and whether segment assets are disclosed for Hyve.
Every dated event ahead
- January 2027 FY2026 10-K: Full-year customer concentration in the warrant's first year, how much of Amazon's warrant has vested, its revenue reduction, and whether segment assets are disclosed for Hyve.
- 14 January 2027 Q4 FY2026 results: Whether free cash flow recovers at least $1.5B with inventory below $15.29B, without leaning on more receivables sold; the thesis's next test.
- February 2027 2027 proxy statement: How the FY2026 bonus paid in a year of negative free cash flow, and the Hyve performance-share metric if disclosed.
- March 2027 Q1 FY2027 results: Whether Hyve's cash conversion improves in fiscal 2027 as management said, or the inventory build resumes with new programmes.
- 1 September 2027 $750M term loan maturity: Whether the company refinances or repays from cash, a read on how much the Hyve build has tightened the balance sheet.
Since we wrote this
- 5 OctThesis reviewThe long case now sits under the verdictAfter the five-name pilot, the owner asked for the long case on every thesis.
- 4 OctThesis reviewOwner's checklist: revenue streams, cost of growth, management, catalystsThe owner's checklist found the method silent on who runs the company, what growth costs, where the money comes from and what is dated ahead; this pass fills those four blocks from the proxy and filings.
- 3 OctEarningsThe quarterly filing confirmed the numbers; borrowing source correctedThe 10-Q matched the results release. It showed the inventory build is funded by borrowing against receivables, not the main credit line, which is unused, and that more receivables are being sold to banks.
- 26 SepPrice movePrice figures moved to the September 25 close; view heldThe shares rose 1.4% the day after the thesis was written. The business costs $12.47 for each $1 of yearly operating profit; whether Hyve's inventory turns into cash is still January's question.
- 25 SepThesis writtenNeutral, medium convictionThe day after results that beat the company's own forecast and sent the shares down 9.9% on a quarter of negative cash flow.
Also checked 4 times with nothing new to act on.
Sources 28
Sources - 28
Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.
- S01primarycompany filing2026-01-27the business description, the Competition section naming thirteen companies in two groups, the vendor and customer concentration disclosures, the systems-design risk factor on volume guarantees, the supplier finance programme note, headcountbacksC01C10C11C25C50C55
- S02primarycompany filing2026-07-02the new four-segment table with Hyve Solutions reported separately, the net-presentation effect on Hyve revenue growth and margin, customer and vendor concentration, the Amazon warrant note, borrowings and maturities, the supplier finance balance, the repurchase authorisationbacksC02C05C35C45
- S03primarycompany release2026-09-24the Q3 FY2026 income statement, balance sheet and cash flow statement, the non-GAAP reconciliations, free cash flow, and the Q4 FY2026 outlookbacksC03C06C07C08C32C33C35C38C56
- S04primarytranscript2026-09-24the split of gross billings and non-GAAP operating income between Distribution and Hyve, Hyve's margin on billings, net working capital and cash conversion days, management's cash expectations for Q4 and fiscal 2027, the cancellation answer. The questions are a separate origin: eight analysts, two of them on margin mix and one on whether Hyve's programmes can be cancelled
Non-GAAP operating margin as a percentage of gross billings was 3.61%, compared with 5.04% in the prior year period.
backsC03C04C09C13C14C18C21C38C44 - S05primarycompany release2026-06-25the Q2 FY2026 statements and outlookread, but no claim rests on it
- S06primarytranscript2026-06-25the hyperscaler programme count, the US manufacturing expansion of more than 1 million square feet, the HP distribution selection, the strategic-inventory gain in distribution margins, net working capital of $4.9B. An analyst's question that inventory was up almost 30% sequentially
We now have programs with all five U.S.-based hyperscalers, and three hyperscalers where we have won more than one program.
backsC13C15C18C21C44 - S07primarycompany release2026-01-08full-year fiscal 2025 revenue, operating income, gross billings of $89.4B against $80.1B, free cash flow of $1.39B, and the Q1 FY2026 outlookbacksC06C16C32
- S08primarycompany filing2026-06-03the warrant's size, exercise prices, tranche structure, expiry and the definition of qualifying payments; the payment thresholds themselves are redactedbacksC12
- S09primarycompany filing2026-07-02a EUR 650 million receivables securitization with BNP Paribas, Banco Santander and Credit Agricole, borrowing to June 2028backsC34
- S10primarycompany release2025-04-10the medium-term aspirations, including 95% conversion of non-GAAP net income into free cash flow, and the fiscal 2025 forecastbacksC30
- S11primarycompany filing2026-03-03Ingram Micro Holding Corporation Form 10-K for fiscal year 2025 Ingram Micro Holding Corporationthe largest rival's own list of competitors, naming TD Synnex first, cloud marketplaces such as Pax8 and AppDirect, and vendors selling direct; Apple at 21% of its net sales
Our top competitors include global companies such as TD Synnex, Arrow Electronics, Inc., Scansource, Inc., Westcon-Comstor, and Synnex Technology International
backsC17 - S12primarycompany filing2026-02-27Celestica Inc. Form 10-K for 2025 Celestica Inc.a Hyve rival's own description of how hyperscaler hardware work is priced; its Hardware Platform Solutions revenue up 81% in 2025 to 41% of its total
we operate in a highly competitive industry with aggressive pricing dynamics
backsC24 - S13primarycompany filing2026-02-11Arrow Electronics, Inc. Form 10-K for 2025 Arrow Electronics, Inc.that Arrow's enterprise computing segment sells to the same resellers, and that about 70% of Arrow is componentsread, but no claim rests on it
- S14primarycompany filing2026-07-31Amazon.com, Inc. Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 Amazon.com, Inc.the equipment spending of the one Hyve customer that is named anywhere, $173.0B over the twelve months to June 30, 2026 against $107.7B
Purchases of property and equipment | ( 32,183 ) | ( 54,208 ) | ( 57,202 ) | ( 98,411 ) | ( 107,656 ) | ( 173,028 )
backsC23 - S15primarygovernment data2026-08-28US Bureau of Economic Analysis, private fixed investment in computers and peripheral equipment (FRED series B935RC1Q027SBEA) US Bureau of Economic Analysisthe rate at which US businesses are buying computers: $400.6B at a seasonally adjusted annual rate in Q2 2026 against $253.8B in Q2 2025 and $175.6B in Q2 2024, in billions of dollars
Private fixed investment: Nonresidential: Information processing equipment and software: Computers and peripheral equipment
backsC22 - S16primarygovernment data2026-09-10US Census Bureau, Monthly Wholesale Trade: merchant wholesalers of professional and commercial equipment and supplies, sales (FRED series S4234SM144NCEN) US Census BureauUS sales by the wholesale industry TD SYNNEX's American distribution sits in: $724.4B over the twelve months to July 2026 against $647.2B a year earlier, up 11.9%, in millions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted
Merchant Wholesalers, Except Manufacturers' Sales Branches and Offices: Durable Goods: Professional and Commercial Equipment and Supplies Sales
backsC19 - S17primaryindustry data2025-06-05Omdia (Canalys), 'What's next for technology distribution?' Omdia / Canalysan outside measure of the distribution market and its concentration; names TD Synnex the largest distributor at $80.1B of 2024 gross billings
Canalys (part of Omdia) estimates that the global IT distribution market stood at US$463 billion in 2024. The sector is increasingly concentrated, with the top 15 distributors generating sales of US$287 billion, commanding over 61% of the total
backsC16 - S18primarycompany release2026-08-19Hyve Solutions and the Nevada Governor's Office of Economic Development, Nevada campuses announcement (PR Newswire) Hyve Solutions / Nevada Governor's Office of Economic Developmentthe scale of Hyve's factory build: two Nevada campuses and about 3,000 jobs
The Reno location will serve as Hyve's flagship campus in the state, occupying roughly 624,000 square feet of advanced manufacturing space
backsC15 - S19primaryvendor data2026-09-25Research pack, frozen beside this thesiscontent/SNX/research-pack.jsonprice and daily closes, the 126-day price-move decomposition, the analyst rating series and price-target drift, the earnings-surprise history, FINRA short interest, the insider statistics, headcount, and the filed-competitor cohortbacksC28C32
- S20primarycompany filing2026-09-16Forms 4 filed by TD SYNNEX insiders, September 2025 to September 2026, read for the Rule 10b5-1 flag129 open-market sales and no purchases in the year; 104 of them under plans adopted in advance; the discretionary sales by the chair of Hyve in June 2026backsC36
- S21secondarynews2026-09-24the headline framing of the Q3 FY2026 sell-off; the article body is paywalled and was not readbacksC28
- S22primarycompany filing2026-09-24the 1.750% notes due August 9, 2026 and the revolving facility priced at the SOFR rate plus 1.000% to 1.750%read, but no claim rests on it
- S23primaryvendor data2026-09-26Research pack, refreshed at the 2026-09-26 review and frozen beside this thesis (market tier at the 2026-09-25 close)content/SNX/research-pack.jsonthe September 25, 2026 close, the 126-day price-move decomposition to that close, the analyst rating series and price-target drift, the earnings-surprise history, FINRA short interest at the September 15 settlement, and the filed-competitor cohortbacksC27C29
- S24primarycompany filing2026-10-01the filed balance sheet and cash flow statement for Q3 FY2026, the segment note, the borrowings note showing the $1.5B drawn on the U.S. receivables securitization with the revolver undrawn, the term loan maturity, receivables sold to banks, the supplier finance balance, customer concentration, the warrant's first revenue reduction and the cash conversion cycle on the filing's own definitionbacksC07C08C11C12C33C34C37C44C45C46C47C49C50C56
- S25primarycompany filing2026-09-30the U.S. receivables securitization limit raised to $3.0B and extended to September 25, 2028, with new program feesbacksC46
- S26secondaryindustry data2026-03-26Channel Dive, 'Old-school distribution channels dwarf hyperscaler marketplaces', reporting Omdia's Global Distributor 250 for 2025 Omdia / CanalysOmdia's 2025 distributor ranking as quoted by a trade outlet: the top 250's revenue, the top 15's share, TD Synnex, Ingram Micro and Arrow as the top three, and an Omdia analyst saying marketplaces transact under 1% of the industry
The 250 largest technology distributors drove $389.9 billion in revenue and $34.8 billion in gross profit globally in 2025, with the top 15 capturing up 72.9% of overall revenue
backsC48 - S27primarycompany filing2026-02-13director and officer biographies, beneficial ownership as of January 30, 2026, the CD&A's bonus metrics, weightings and FY2025 payouts, the PRSU design and the FY2025 grantsbacksC51C52C53
- S28primarycompany filing2026-08-03that the compensation committee approved on July 28, 2026 award forms vesting on Hyve's own financial performance over three years; the metric sits in an Appendix A not filed with the formbacksC54