← All thesesMELINeutralMedium convictionSunday 4 October 2026עברית

MercadoLibre

Latin America's largest online shop, with its own delivery network and a digital bank, Mercado Pago, that lends to the people who shop there.

Our viewNeutral Medium conviction
The scores
The profile · 1-4
Growth4/4 ↑

Revenue up 39% in 2025 and 50% in Q2 2026, organically, with buyers up 26% and fintech users 30% across all three countries.

Business quality3/4 ↓

A share Mexico's regulator measured, but Brazil's margin halved since 2023 as it cut fees and shipping against Shopee.

Financial position3/4 →

Investment grade, with company cash above corporate notes, but the loans are funded by rolling securitisations and deposits, and loan growth absorbs the cash.

Execution record3/4 →

Years of delivered growth and margin cuts flagged in advance, but the Q1 2026 provision rise surprised the market.

Per share capture4/4 →

50.7M shares a year ago and now, no convertible, corporate debt small; what has not reached each share is margin.

Potential3/4 →

88M fintech users against 229M banked adults and growing card credit, but nothing is contracted and the margin path is unpromised.

Risk profile3/4 ↓

Argentina supplies 40% of segment profit through a volatile peso, and Brazil's credit cycle is turning; neither resolves in one step.

Valuation3/4 ↑

46 times trailing earnings depressed by chosen investment, 31 times 2027; pays for the plan, not beyond it, and below its own history.

Evidence quality3/4 →

Revenue, segments, loans and funding are filed; credit quality and the payback of price cuts rest on management's own figures.

The Verdict

We rate MercadoLibre neutral. It is a strong business: sales are growing about 40% a year across Brazil, Mexico and Argentina, and in Mexico it and Amazon carry most online shopping. The price is fair if profits recover, because it assumes the slice of each sales dollar kept as operating profit climbs back from under 7 cents toward 9. There is no speculative bet here. The view hinges on that recovery: earnings per share are no higher than in 2024, the company keeps cutting prices in Brazil, and it is lending fast while Brazilian defaults rise.

The long caseLatin Americans are opening accounts and moving their shopping and borrowing online; MercadoLibre must grow with them while its profit margins recover.

The evidence under this - 6 claims
C03facthigh confidence
In the June 2026 quarter revenue was $10,169M, up 49.8% (42.9% FX-neutral); income from operations fell 17% to $683M, a 6.7% margin against 12.2% a year earlier; net income was $466M and diluted EPS $9.19.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-04
C20estimatehigh confidence
Since 2024 revenue has risen 69%, from $20,777M to $35,182M for the four quarters to June 2026, while diluted EPS went from $37.69 to about $36.75.
derived2024 and 2025 filed figures (C02), the four quarters to June 2026 from the pack's filed series and the 10-Q (S08, S03), over 50.7M diluted shares (C15)
against this

The flat EPS is a choice as much as a result: provisions are booked up front on a book growing 75%, and fee and shipping cuts are discretionary (C05, C10).

historical · FY2024 to the four quarters to June 2026written 2026-10-04
C17estimatemedium confidence
At $1,696.56 the shares trade at 46.2 times trailing diluted EPS of $36.75, 44.5 times 2026 consensus EPS of $38.11 and 30.9 times 2027 consensus of $54.98. That 2027 figure needs EPS up 44% in a year: consensus puts 2027 operating profit at $4.74B on $53.4B of revenue, an 8.9% margin against 6.7% now.
derivedthe price (C16), the last four quarters' net income over 50.7M diluted shares (C03, C15), and the pack's consensus estimates (S08)
against this
  • The trailing multiple is struck on a margin management chose to compress; at 2024's 12.7% operating margin the trailing year would have earned roughly half as much again.
  • The six-year median trailing P/E is 65.6, so the shares are cheap against their own history (C18).
current state · 2026-10-02written 2026-10-04
C22factmedium confidence
In September 2025 Mexico's competition commission found that Amazon and MercadoLibre hold more than 85% of sales and transactions in Mexican online retail, and that sellers face barriers on their platforms, including opaque featured-offer rules and more visibility for sellers using the platform's logistics; it ordered no remedies.
against this

The finding is shared with Amazon, so it shows a duopoly in Mexico rather than MercadoLibre's own share; and the commission found barriers it chose not to remedy, which a successor regulator could revisit.

current state · 2025-09-12written 2026-10-04
C09facthigh confidence
In the June 2026 quarter Brazil's direct contribution was $550M on $5,530M of revenue (9.9%, from 15.6%), up 1.7% while its revenue rose 59%; Argentina's was $623M on $1,839M, 40% of the $1,544M total; Mexico's was $306M.
against this

Direct contribution excludes corporate costs and is struck before them, so it overstates each country's profit; the ranking still holds.

historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-04
C26facthigh confidence
The Central Bank of Brazil's total credit default rate rose from 3.96% in July 2025 to 5.04% in August 2026.
against this

The series covers the whole system, including companies; MercadoLibre says its own 15-90 day NPL is near historical lows (C07).

current state · 2026-08-31written 2026-10-04
01

The company

MercadoLibre runs an online marketplace where millions of sellers list goods and it takes a fee. It stores and delivers most orders itself, with warehouses, trucks and even planes, which is hard to do cheaply across Brazil and Mexico.

Its second half, Mercado Pago, is a payment app, account and lender. In Mexico only 53% of adults had any account in 2024, so for many people it is the first bank they use. The alternative is a physical shop, cash, or an incumbent bank.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C01facthigh confidence
MercadoLibre runs an online marketplace, its own delivery network (Mercado Envios, with fulfilment centres, dedicated aircraft and trucks), first-party sales, an advertising business, and Mercado Pago: payments, card acquiring, accounts, investments and loans. Brazil, Argentina and Mexico were 95.6% of 2025 revenue.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-04
C22factmedium confidence
In September 2025 Mexico's competition commission found that Amazon and MercadoLibre hold more than 85% of sales and transactions in Mexican online retail, and that sellers face barriers on their platforms, including opaque featured-offer rules and more visibility for sellers using the platform's logistics; it ordered no remedies.
against this

The finding is shared with Amazon, so it shows a duopoly in Mexico rather than MercadoLibre's own share; and the commission found barriers it chose not to remedy, which a successor regulator could revisit.

current state · 2025-09-12written 2026-10-04
C27facthigh confidence
World Bank Findex: adults with an account rose in Mexico from 27.4% in 2011 to 53.0% in 2024, in Brazil from 55.9% to 86.4%, and in Argentina from 33.1% to 81.7%.
historical · 2011 to 2024written 2026-10-04

How it makes money

Money arrives three ways. Commerce, $5.76B of sales in Q2 2026, is seller fees, delivery charges and goods it sells itself. Fintech, $4.41B, is payment fees and, increasingly, interest on loans and cards. Advertising, sold to sellers who want to be seen, grows fastest but is not reported on its own.

Lending is the part to watch: interest arrives over months, but the expected losses are set aside the day a loan is made.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C04facthigh confidence
In the June 2026 quarter commerce revenue was $5,762M, up 50%, and fintech revenue $4,407M, up 49%; gross merchandise volume was $21.9B, up 44%; payment volume $101B, up 56%; unique buyers grew 26% and fintech monthly active users 30%, to 88M.
against this

The user and volume figures are the company's own operating metrics, not audited; only the commerce and fintech revenue split is in the 10-Q.

historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-04
C03facthigh confidence
In the June 2026 quarter revenue was $10,169M, up 49.8% (42.9% FX-neutral); income from operations fell 17% to $683M, a 6.7% margin against 12.2% a year earlier; net income was $466M and diluted EPS $9.19.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-04
C29management claimmedium confidence
Management says advertising passed 10% of Latin America's digital advertising market for the first time in the June 2026 quarter, with revenue up 62% FX-neutral.
against this

Advertising revenue is not reported separately, and no outside measure of the market share was found; the company does not say whose market estimate it used.

historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-04
C05facthigh confidence
At 30 June 2026 gross loans receivable were $16,375M against an allowance of $4,379M (26.7%): credit cards $7,676M, consumer loans $5,772M, merchant loans $2,537M. Unused card lines off the balance sheet were $14,047M, up from $9,001M at the end of 2025. Management puts the portfolio's growth at 75% a year.
against this

A large allowance is partly an accounting effect of growth: lifetime losses are provisioned when a loan is made, so a book growing 75% carries a heavy reserve before its interest arrives (S05).

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-04
Where the money comes from, stream by stream
StreamShare of sales (FY2025)How it earns it
Commerce services44.1%Seller fees on each sale, shipping and storage fees, advertising and subscriptions charged on the marketplace.
Financial services and income23.1%Payment fees off the marketplace, instalment financing, interest on wallet and fund balances, debit-card and insurance fees.
Credit revenues20.3%Interest on consumer and merchant loans, and interest and fees on Mercado Pago credit cards.
Commerce product sales12.3%Goods it buys and resells itself, first-party, with their shipping fees.
Fintech product sales0.2%Card readers sold to merchants.

Who runs it

Ariel Szarfsztejn became chief executive in January 2026. He joined in 2017, built the delivery network, then ran the shopping side, including Brazil's free-shipping cuts. Founder Marcos Galperin, in charge since 1999, stays on as executive chairman.

Directors and managers own less than 1%; a trust in the Galperin name holds about 7%. Most of the yearly bonus rides on sales and operating profit in dollars, not on margin, and long-term pay is cash tied to the share price, so no new shares go to executives.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C43facthigh confidence
Ariel Szarfsztejn became chief executive on 1 January 2026, succeeding founder Marcos Galperin, chairman and CEO from 1999 to 2025 and now executive chairman. Szarfsztejn joined in 2017, ran Mercado Envios from 2018 to 2021 and commerce from 2022 (Commerce President April 2024 to December 2025). CFO Martín de los Santos has held the post since August 2023 and ran Mercado Crédito from 2017 to 2023; Osvaldo Giménez has run Mercado Pago since 2004 and been Fintech President since August 2020.
current state · 2026-04-23written 2026-10-04
C44facthigh confidence
At 14 April 2026 directors and executive officers as a group (17 people) owned 129,974 shares, 0.26% of 50,697,182 outstanding; the largest, director Stelleo Tolda, held 97,933, of which 20,000 are pledged under a prepaid variable forward maturing 20 August 2027. Marcos Galperin held 35 shares directly; the Galperin Trust reported 3,550,136 (7.00%) on a Schedule 13D/A, a holding the proxy lists as a five-percent holder and not in any director's line. Baillie Gifford held 7.46%.
current state · 2026-04-14written 2026-10-04
C45facthigh confidence
The 2025 annual cash bonus paid on four metrics: net revenues and financial income (40%) and income from operations (35%), both in constant dollars, adjusted payment volume (10%) and a competitive Net Promoter Score (15%), with payout capped at target; 2025 scored 109.6%, operating income $3,942M in constant dollars against a $3,436M target. Long-term pay is a cash retention program over six years, half fixed and half indexed to the share price against a $1,944.47 base; no equity was granted to named executives. Holders approved 2025 pay with 34.4M votes for and 4.4M against.
historical · FY2025written 2026-10-04
02

Why it wins, and who could beat it

Why customers come back

Shoppers come for the range and sellers come for the shoppers, and owning delivery and payments makes both cheaper. Mexico's competition regulator found in 2025 that MercadoLibre and Amazon together carry over 85% of online retail sales there, and that sellers find it hard to move between platforms.

That is a position somebody outside the company measured. What it does not do is stop price competition, as Brazil shows.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C22factmedium confidence
In September 2025 Mexico's competition commission found that Amazon and MercadoLibre hold more than 85% of sales and transactions in Mexican online retail, and that sellers face barriers on their platforms, including opaque featured-offer rules and more visibility for sellers using the platform's logistics; it ordered no remedies.
against this

The finding is shared with Amazon, so it shows a duopoly in Mexico rather than MercadoLibre's own share; and the commission found barriers it chose not to remedy, which a successor regulator could revisit.

current state · 2025-09-12written 2026-10-04
C36inferencemedium confidence
The moat is a network: buyers come for the selection, sellers for the buyers, and the delivery network and wallet make both cheaper to use; each purchase also feeds the credit models. A seller can list elsewhere, but loses most of the demand.
derivedthe Mexican competition finding (C22), the free-shipping response (C30) and the business description (C01)
against this

In Brazil, Shopee built a large marketplace despite it (C23), and Brazil's margin halved while the company cut fees to hold its place (C09), so the network does not stop price competition.

current state · 2026-10-04written 2026-10-04
C30management claimmedium confidence
Management says a year after lowering Brazil's free-shipping threshold, items sold there grew 56% against 26% a year earlier and conversion rose 1.1 points; users of both the marketplace and Mercado Pago spend 70% more and pay 90% more through it than single-sided users.
against this

The company does not disclose what share of users are on both sides or the cost of the free shipping, so the payback cannot be checked.

historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-04

The threat

In Brazil, Shopee, owned by Sea Limited, calls itself a leading marketplace and competes on cheap goods. MercadoLibre answered with lower fees and free shipping, and its Brazilian profit stopped growing. In Mexico, Amazon is the other half of the duopoly. In lending, Nubank and the big Brazilian banks sell the same card and account.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C23facthigh confidence
Sea Limited's 2025 annual report describes its Shopee marketplace as the largest e-commerce platform in Southeast Asia and Taiwan and a leading e-commerce platform in Brazil.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-04
C09facthigh confidence
In the June 2026 quarter Brazil's direct contribution was $550M on $5,530M of revenue (9.9%, from 15.6%), up 1.7% while its revenue rose 59%; Argentina's was $623M on $1,839M, 40% of the $1,544M total; Mexico's was $306M.
against this

Direct contribution excludes corporate costs and is struck before them, so it overstates each country's profit; the ranking still holds.

historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-04
C24facthigh confidence
Nu Holdings, which launched its first product, a no-fee credit card, in Brazil in 2014, names Itaú Unibanco, Bradesco, Santander Brasil, Caixa and Banco do Brasil as its main competitors in Brazilian consumer credit.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-04
C22factmedium confidence
In September 2025 Mexico's competition commission found that Amazon and MercadoLibre hold more than 85% of sales and transactions in Mexican online retail, and that sellers face barriers on their platforms, including opaque featured-offer rules and more visibility for sellers using the platform's logistics; it ordered no remedies.
against this

The finding is shared with Amazon, so it shows a duopoly in Mexico rather than MercadoLibre's own share; and the commission found barriers it chose not to remedy, which a successor regulator could revisit.

current state · 2025-09-12written 2026-10-04

The rivals: AMZN, SE, NU, ITUB, BBD, GOOGL, META.

Who else does this, rival by rival
TickerRivalWhere it competesHow far alongPriced against it
AMZNAmazon's marketplace and Prime delivery in Mexico and BrazilPriced against it: Same productCommerce (marketplace, Mercado Envios logistics and first-party sales)On saleSame product
SEShopee, Sea Limited's marketplacePriced against it: One segment onlyCommerce (marketplace, Mercado Envios logistics and first-party sales)On saleOne segment only
NUNubank's card and accountPriced against it: One segment onlyFintech (Mercado Pago payments, acquiring and credit)On saleOne segment only
ITUB · BBDItaú Unibanco and Bradesco cards and consumer loansPriced against it: One segment onlyFintech (Mercado Pago payments, acquiring and credit)On saleOne segment only
GOOGL · METAGoogle search ads and Meta's Instagram and Facebook adsPriced against it: One segment onlyAdvertising (Mercado Ads)On saleOne segment only
03

How big it could get

How big this could get

About 305 million adults live in Brazil, Mexico and Argentina, and about 229 million of them have an account. Mercado Pago has 88 million monthly users across all its countries.

Brazilians owe about $142B on credit cards, a figure up 13.2% in a year; MercadoLibre's own card loans are $7.7B. That is the size of the pond, not a forecast of what it wins.

The evidence under this - 6 claims
C28facthigh confidence
World Bank population data put adults aged 15 and over in 2024 at about 170.3 million in Brazil, 98.8 million in Mexico and 35.8 million in Argentina, about 305 million in all.
historical · 2024written 2026-10-04
C27facthigh confidence
World Bank Findex: adults with an account rose in Mexico from 27.4% in 2011 to 53.0% in 2024, in Brazil from 55.9% to 86.4%, and in Argentina from 33.1% to 81.7%.
historical · 2011 to 2024written 2026-10-04
C37estimatemedium confidence
About 229 million adults in Brazil, Mexico and Argentina hold an account: 147 million in Brazil, 52 million in Mexico and 29 million in Argentina, out of about 305 million adults.
derivedadults by country (C28) times account ownership in 2024 (C27)
against this

Account ownership counts any account, including a basic wallet, so it overstates the people a lender could serve.

historical · 2024written 2026-10-04
C04facthigh confidence
In the June 2026 quarter commerce revenue was $5,762M, up 50%, and fintech revenue $4,407M, up 49%; gross merchandise volume was $21.9B, up 44%; payment volume $101B, up 56%; unique buyers grew 26% and fintech monthly active users 30%, to 88M.
against this

The user and volume figures are the company's own operating metrics, not audited; only the commerce and fintech revenue split is in the 10-Q.

historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-04
C25facthigh confidence
Brazilian household credit-card balances were R$740.4bn in August 2026, up 13.2% from R$654.3bn a year earlier, within total household credit of R$4,670bn (up 10.5%); at R$5.22 to the dollar the card balances are about $142B.
current state · 2026-08-31written 2026-10-04
C05facthigh confidence
At 30 June 2026 gross loans receivable were $16,375M against an allowance of $4,379M (26.7%): credit cards $7,676M, consumer loans $5,772M, merchant loans $2,537M. Unused card lines off the balance sheet were $14,047M, up from $9,001M at the end of 2025. Management puts the portfolio's growth at 75% a year.
against this

A large allowance is partly an accounting effect of growth: lifetime losses are provisioned when a loan is made, so a book growing 75% carries a heavy reserve before its interest arrives (S05).

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-04
Where the growth is coming from, business by business

Where the growth is coming from

BusinessShare of revenueGrowth: last quarterLast half-yearLast yearShare in 3 years at its half-year rate
Service85%+45.7%+45.4%+42.3%75%
Product15%+78.8%+80.9%+75.4%25%
Whole company100%+49.8%+49.4%+46.0%100%

On the filed split through 2026-06-30, if each business keeps its last half-year's growth, the company grows about 51% next year and 53% in year 3, against 46.0% over the last twelve months. A scenario, not a forecast: no business holds its rate.

04

The results

The numbers

Is it growing?Fast

Sales grew 46% over the twelve months to Jun 2026, faster than the 39% in the year to Dec 2025.

Dec 2021: $7.07BDec 2022: $10.8BDec 2023: $15.1BDec 2024: $20.8BDec 2025: $28.9B12 mo to Jun 2026: $35.2B$7.07B$35.2B
Is it profitable?Thin

Operating margin is 8.3%, down from 15% in the year to Dec 2023.

Dec 2021: 6.2%Dec 2022: 9.9%Dec 2023: 15%Dec 2024: 13%Dec 2025: 11%12 mo to Jun 2026: 8.3%6.2%8.3%
Does growth pay off?Costly

Running costs take 34¢ of each sales dollar, down from 36¢ in the year to Dec 2021.

Dec 2021: 36¢Dec 2022: 38¢Dec 2023: 36¢Dec 2024: 33¢Dec 2025: 33¢12 mo to Jun 2026: 34¢36¢34¢
Does it earn good returns?Decent

Each dollar put into the business earns 13% a year after tax, about where it was (11%) in the year to Dec 2022.

Dec 2022: 11%Dec 2023: 20%Dec 2024: 23%Dec 2025: 17%12 mo to Jun 2026: 13%11%13%
Is it making cash?Strong

It turned 35% of sales into free cash, $12.4B over the last twelve months.

Dec 2021: $392MDec 2022: $2.48BDec 2023: $4.63BDec 2024: $7.06BDec 2025: $10.8B12 mo to Jun 2026: $12.4B$392M$12.4B
Is the balance sheet safe?Light debt

It owes $4.90B more than the cash it holds, about 0.4 years of the cash its operations bring in.

Dec 2021: −$123MDec 2022: −$509MDec 2023: $1.54BDec 2024: $1.41BDec 2025: −$2.89B12 mo to Jun 2026: −$4.90B−$123M−$4.90B
Are shares being diluted?Stable

The share count rose 1.8% in 4.5 years.

Dec 2021: 49.8MDec 2022: 51.3MDec 2023: 51.0MDec 2024: 50.7MDec 2025: 50.7M12 mo to Jun 2026: 50.7M49.8M50.7M
All the numbers

Filed figures from the company's 10-K and 10-Q, read 2026-10-04. Fiscal years end in December.

Dec 2021Dec 2022Dec 2023Dec 2024Dec 202512 mo to Jun 2026
Size and growth
Sales$7.07B$10.8B$15.1B$20.8B$28.9B$35.2B
Sales growth-+52%+40%+38%+39%+46%
Profit
Gross margin43%48%50%46%45%43%
Operating margin6.2%9.9%15%13%11%8.3%
Net margin1.2%4.5%6.5%9.2%6.9%5.3%
What growth costs, per sales dollar
Research and development8.3%10%12%9.3%7.9%7.3%
Sales and marketing15%12%11%11%11%11%
General and admin6.6%6.1%5.1%4.6%3.7%3.5%
Capital spending8.1%4.2%3.4%4.1%4.6%4.3%
Cash
Cash from operations$965M$2.94B$5.14B$7.92B$12.1B$13.9B
Free cash flow$392M$2.48B$4.63B$7.06B$10.8B$12.4B
Balance sheet
Cash and short-term investments$3.40B$4.25B$6.04B$7.12B$6.30B$5.73B
Debt$3.52B$4.76B$4.50B$5.71B$9.19B$10.6B
Net cash−$123M−$509M$1.54B$1.41B−$2.89B−$4.90B
Returns and shares
Return on capital-11%20%23%17%13%
Shares (diluted)49.8M51.3M51.0M50.7M50.7M50.7M

What growth costs

Growth here is getting more expensive, not cheaper. Engineering and head-office costs grow slower than sales, which helps. But free delivery, goods the company sells itself, and money set aside for card loans that may go bad all grow faster than sales, so each new dollar of sales has earned less profit every year since 2023.

The evidence under this - 2 claims
C41facthigh confidence
Per dollar of revenue, from 2023 to 2025: cost of net revenues rose from 49.8% to 55.5%, the provision for doubtful accounts from 7.0% ($1,050M) to 10.7% ($3,091M), and capital spending from 3.4% to 4.6%; product and technology development fell from 12.1% to 7.9%, general and administrative from 5.1% to 3.7%, and sales and marketing moved from 11.5% to 11.1%. The operating margin went from 14.6% to 11.1%.
historical · FY2023 to FY2025written 2026-10-04
C42inferencemedium confidence
Growth has narrowed the margin rather than widened it: the overheads that do not scale with volume (development and administration, 17.2 to 11.6 cents per revenue dollar) have leveraged, but delivery and first-party goods in cost of revenue and credit provisions grow faster than revenue, and the operating margin fell from 14.6% in 2023 to about 8.3% in the four quarters to June 2026.
derivedC41 for 2023 to 2025; the four quarters to June 2026 sum the FY2025 10-K and the June 2026 10-Q: income from operations $2,907M on revenue of $35,182M, development 7.3%, administration 3.5% of revenue; C03 and C06 for the quarter's margin and provision.
against this
  • Part of the gross-margin fall is mix rather than price: first-party product sales, a low-margin line, rose from 9.6% of revenue in 2023 to 12.3% in 2025 (C40).
  • Management argues the shipping and fee cuts and the card build are investments that pay back, citing items sold up 56% and card cohorts breaking even after 12 to 18 months (C30, C07, C10); if so the narrowing is a choice that reverses.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-04

The last report (5 Aug)

Quarter ended June 2026, filed figures.

50%
Sales growth
against the same quarter a year earlier
15.0%
Growth from the quarter before
against 1.0% the quarter before that
7¢
Operating profit
per dollar of sales

Q2 2026 was the fastest growth in four years: buyers up 26%, fintech users up 30%, both halves of the business up about 50%.

The cost showed below the sales line. Money set aside for bad loans was $1.28B against $690M a year earlier, nearly twice the quarter's operating profit, and Brazil's profit barely grew on 59% more sales. Management says its credit measures are near their best and that the losses on new cards fade after 12 to 18 months.

What it did to the thesisIt showed the growth is real and broad, and that it is still not reaching profit: the margin held at the first quarter's low level rather than recovering. Credit looked steadier by the company's own measures, which leaves the recovery the price needs unproven.

The quarter in detail

Sales growth from the previous quarter, filed figures.

Earnings per share $9.19 against $8.65 expected; $9.19 as filed, with no adjustments.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C03facthigh confidence
In the June 2026 quarter revenue was $10,169M, up 49.8% (42.9% FX-neutral); income from operations fell 17% to $683M, a 6.7% margin against 12.2% a year earlier; net income was $466M and diluted EPS $9.19.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-04
C04facthigh confidence
In the June 2026 quarter commerce revenue was $5,762M, up 50%, and fintech revenue $4,407M, up 49%; gross merchandise volume was $21.9B, up 44%; payment volume $101B, up 56%; unique buyers grew 26% and fintech monthly active users 30%, to 88M.
against this

The user and volume figures are the company's own operating metrics, not audited; only the commerce and fintech revenue split is in the 10-Q.

historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-04
C06facthigh confidence
The provision for doubtful accounts was $1,276M in the June 2026 quarter against $690M a year earlier, nearly twice that quarter's operating income; in the first half $2,460M was charged to the allowance and $1,370M written off.
against this

Management says provisions rose about 2 points as a share of revenue only because credit grows faster than revenue, and that the book is profitable after them (S04).

historical · H1 2026written 2026-10-04
C07management claimmedium confidence
Management reports a June-quarter NIMAL of 20.7% (18% in March, 23.0% a year earlier), a credit-card NIMAL of -2.5% against breakeven a year earlier, and a 15-90 day NPL of 7.0% (4.6% on cards), near historical lows. It says card cohorts break even after 12 to 18 months.
against this
  • An analyst on the call noted the 90-day-plus NPL deteriorated meaningfully in the quarter; management said fast-growing short loans distort it (S05).
  • Brazil's system-wide default rate rose from 3.96% to 5.04% over the year to August 2026 (C26).
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-04
C09facthigh confidence
In the June 2026 quarter Brazil's direct contribution was $550M on $5,530M of revenue (9.9%, from 15.6%), up 1.7% while its revenue rose 59%; Argentina's was $623M on $1,839M, 40% of the $1,544M total; Mexico's was $306M.
against this

Direct contribution excludes corporate costs and is struck before them, so it overstates each country's profit; the ranking still holds.

historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-04
What management did with the money

Insiders in 2026Q2: 10 purchases and 1 sales, from their Form 4 filings.

05

The price, and where we disagree

In short. Fair. The price pays for the business plus profits recovering as analysts expect, which management has not promised and the last two years have not shown.

Share price
$1,696.56
close,
Price for each $1 of yearly profit
46.2
its 6-year normal 65.6

The shares are about 30% below their high, and the whole fall came from investors paying less for each dollar of sales, not from the business shrinking.

Twice in two years the shares fell sharply on loan-loss worries: 16% in November 2024, then 13% in May 2026. The first time, sales and profit grew through it and the shares hit new highs. The next report, on 4 November 2026, is the first chance to see whether the second scare passes the same way.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C16facthigh confidence
The shares closed at $1,696.56 on 2 October 2026, a market value near $86.0B, 30.1% below the 52-week high of $2,428 and down 22.1% in a year; over that year revenue per share rose 46% and the price paid per dollar of it fell 46.6%.
current state · 2026-10-02written 2026-10-04
C21facthigh confidence
In the March 2026 quarter revenue rose 49% but income from operations fell 20% to $611M, a 6.9% margin; on the call management said it was taking provisions in Brazil as average loan terms lengthened from five to eight months, and the shares fell 12.7% the next day.
historical · Q1 2026written 2026-10-04
C35facthigh confidence
In the September 2024 quarter operating income was $557M, a 10.5% margin, which management put down to credit cards' larger share of the book and up-front provisions; the shares fell 16.2% on 7 November 2024.
historical · Q3 2024written 2026-10-04
C13facthigh confidence
On 14 September 2026 the company closed $1,000M of 5.850% senior unsecured notes due 2036, for general corporate purposes; its issuer ratings are BBB- (S&P), Baa3 (Moody's) and BBB- (Fitch).
historical · September 2026written 2026-10-04
How we read the multiple

At $1,696.56 a share, for the price to make sense:

  1. Over the last four quarters the company earned about $36.75 a share.
  2. The price is about 46 times that, cheap against its own past but still a lot.
  3. Analysts expect $54.98 a share in 2027, 44% more than this year.
  4. That needs operating profit back near 9 cents of each sales dollar, from under 7 today.

Against its own history. Investors have usually paid much more for each dollar of its earnings and sales; today they pay less because profit stopped rising.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C17estimatemedium confidence
At $1,696.56 the shares trade at 46.2 times trailing diluted EPS of $36.75, 44.5 times 2026 consensus EPS of $38.11 and 30.9 times 2027 consensus of $54.98. That 2027 figure needs EPS up 44% in a year: consensus puts 2027 operating profit at $4.74B on $53.4B of revenue, an 8.9% margin against 6.7% now.
derivedthe price (C16), the last four quarters' net income over 50.7M diluted shares (C03, C15), and the pack's consensus estimates (S08)
against this
  • The trailing multiple is struck on a margin management chose to compress; at 2024's 12.7% operating margin the trailing year would have earned roughly half as much again.
  • The six-year median trailing P/E is 65.6, so the shares are cheap against their own history (C18).
current state · 2026-10-02written 2026-10-04
C18factmedium confidence
On the pack's trailing figures the price is 46.2 times earnings against a six-year median of 65.6, and 2.44 times sales against 4.69.
against this

The six years include 2020 and 2021, when the company earned little and growth stocks were priced for low rates, so the median flatters today.

current state · 2026-10-02written 2026-10-04
C20estimatehigh confidence
Since 2024 revenue has risen 69%, from $20,777M to $35,182M for the four quarters to June 2026, while diluted EPS went from $37.69 to about $36.75.
derived2024 and 2025 filed figures (C02), the four quarters to June 2026 from the pack's filed series and the 10-Q (S08, S03), over 50.7M diluted shares (C15)
against this

The flat EPS is a choice as much as a result: provisions are booked up front on a book growing 75%, and fee and shipping cuts are discretionary (C05, C10).

historical · FY2024 to the four quarters to June 2026written 2026-10-04
C10management claimhigh confidence
Management attributes the margin fall to the lower free-shipping threshold in Brazil, cuts to seller fees and Pix discounts there, losses on card readers in Mexico, higher chip and energy costs, and the credit build; it says it will keep reinvesting gains from scale, with the same philosophy going forward, and gives no margin target.
against this

The CFO says each initiative has growth targets and a path to profitability, and operating costs fell 2.5 points of revenue on the quarter (S05).

forwardwritten 2026-10-04
Priced against its rivals

Only Amazon.com sells the same thing to the same buyers as a large part of what it does. A price comparison needs at least two, so the price is judged against its own history instead.

Where we disagree with the market

The market believes

The margin fall is investment that pays back, so profits will jump as new card customers mature and price cuts bring loyal buyers.

We believe

The business is real, but nothing yet shows the margin returning, and lending is growing fast as Brazil's defaults rise.

Most analysts rate the shares a buy and expect 2027 earnings far above today's. They may be right: the company did this before, in 2024.

But earnings per share have not moved since 2024 while sales rose 69%, management says it will keep reinvesting, and the Brazilian central bank's default rate rose from 3.96% to 5.04% in a year. The evidence against us is a quarter with a margin above 9% and clean credit.

What analysts say, and the evidence
Analysts positive
82%
of 27, 1 Oct
Four months earlier
83%
of 24, 1 Jun
The evidence under this - 5 claims
C19factmedium confidence
On 1 October 2026, 22 of 27 analysts rated the shares a buy and none a sell (81.5% positive), against 89.3% of 28 in February 2026; the average price target moved 2% over the year.
against this

The panel is a vendor aggregation: the snapshot endpoint counts 33 opinions against 27 in the dated series.

current state · 2026-10-01written 2026-10-04
C07management claimmedium confidence
Management reports a June-quarter NIMAL of 20.7% (18% in March, 23.0% a year earlier), a credit-card NIMAL of -2.5% against breakeven a year earlier, and a 15-90 day NPL of 7.0% (4.6% on cards), near historical lows. It says card cohorts break even after 12 to 18 months.
against this
  • An analyst on the call noted the 90-day-plus NPL deteriorated meaningfully in the quarter; management said fast-growing short loans distort it (S05).
  • Brazil's system-wide default rate rose from 3.96% to 5.04% over the year to August 2026 (C26).
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-04
C20estimatehigh confidence
Since 2024 revenue has risen 69%, from $20,777M to $35,182M for the four quarters to June 2026, while diluted EPS went from $37.69 to about $36.75.
derived2024 and 2025 filed figures (C02), the four quarters to June 2026 from the pack's filed series and the 10-Q (S08, S03), over 50.7M diluted shares (C15)
against this

The flat EPS is a choice as much as a result: provisions are booked up front on a book growing 75%, and fee and shipping cuts are discretionary (C05, C10).

historical · FY2024 to the four quarters to June 2026written 2026-10-04
C10management claimhigh confidence
Management attributes the margin fall to the lower free-shipping threshold in Brazil, cuts to seller fees and Pix discounts there, losses on card readers in Mexico, higher chip and energy costs, and the credit build; it says it will keep reinvesting gains from scale, with the same philosophy going forward, and gives no margin target.
against this

The CFO says each initiative has growth targets and a path to profitability, and operating costs fell 2.5 points of revenue on the quarter (S05).

forwardwritten 2026-10-04
C26facthigh confidence
The Central Bank of Brazil's total credit default rate rose from 3.96% in July 2025 to 5.04% in August 2026.
against this

The series covers the whole system, including companies; MercadoLibre says its own 15-90 day NPL is near historical lows (C07).

current state · 2026-08-31written 2026-10-04
06

What could go wrong, and how we would know

The risks

  • A credit cycle Loans grew 75% and Brazil's system default rate is rising; if losses outrun the money set aside, profit falls further.
  • Argentina carries the profit Argentina earns 40% of segment profit; a sharp peso devaluation would cut it in dollars quickly.
  • Price war in Brazil Shopee competes on price; each fee or shipping cut lifts sales and leaves Brazil's profit flat.
  • Investment without end Management names no margin target and says it will keep reinvesting gains, so recovery may never come.
  • Rules on lending Brazil caps card interest and is tightening capital rules to 2028; banking licences in Mexico and Argentina are still pending.
The evidence under this - 7 claims
C26facthigh confidence
The Central Bank of Brazil's total credit default rate rose from 3.96% in July 2025 to 5.04% in August 2026.
against this

The series covers the whole system, including companies; MercadoLibre says its own 15-90 day NPL is near historical lows (C07).

current state · 2026-08-31written 2026-10-04
C05facthigh confidence
At 30 June 2026 gross loans receivable were $16,375M against an allowance of $4,379M (26.7%): credit cards $7,676M, consumer loans $5,772M, merchant loans $2,537M. Unused card lines off the balance sheet were $14,047M, up from $9,001M at the end of 2025. Management puts the portfolio's growth at 75% a year.
against this

A large allowance is partly an accounting effect of growth: lifetime losses are provisioned when a loan is made, so a book growing 75% carries a heavy reserve before its interest arrives (S05).

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-04
C09facthigh confidence
In the June 2026 quarter Brazil's direct contribution was $550M on $5,530M of revenue (9.9%, from 15.6%), up 1.7% while its revenue rose 59%; Argentina's was $623M on $1,839M, 40% of the $1,544M total; Mexico's was $306M.
against this

Direct contribution excludes corporate costs and is struck before them, so it overstates each country's profit; the ranking still holds.

historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-04
C33facthigh confidence
In 2025 inflation in the Argentine segment averaged 44.5% while the peso fell 35.4% against the dollar, so Argentine costs and prices rose faster than the currency fell.
historical · FY2025written 2026-10-04
C23facthigh confidence
Sea Limited's 2025 annual report describes its Shopee marketplace as the largest e-commerce platform in Southeast Asia and Taiwan and a leading e-commerce platform in Brazil.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-04
C10management claimhigh confidence
Management attributes the margin fall to the lower free-shipping threshold in Brazil, cuts to seller fees and Pix discounts there, losses on card readers in Mexico, higher chip and energy costs, and the credit build; it says it will keep reinvesting gains from scale, with the same philosophy going forward, and gives no margin target.
against this

The CFO says each initiative has growth targets and a path to profitability, and operating costs fell 2.5 points of revenue on the quarter (S05).

forwardwritten 2026-10-04
C31facthigh confidence
Brazil caps interest and charges on revolving card balances at 100% of the original debt since January 2024, and new capital rules phase in through 2028; Mercado Pago applied for a banking licence in Mexico in September 2024 and in Argentina in June 2025, both still pending.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-04
What we still do not know
  • How Mercado Pago's own default rate compares with Brazil's system rate; only the company reports its figure.
  • What a card customer earns after the first 18 months, and how many of the card loans are that old.
  • Its share of Brazilian online shopping against Shopee; no regulator publishes it.
  • How big advertising is, since it is not reported on its own.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C07management claimmedium confidence
Management reports a June-quarter NIMAL of 20.7% (18% in March, 23.0% a year earlier), a credit-card NIMAL of -2.5% against breakeven a year earlier, and a 15-90 day NPL of 7.0% (4.6% on cards), near historical lows. It says card cohorts break even after 12 to 18 months.
against this
  • An analyst on the call noted the 90-day-plus NPL deteriorated meaningfully in the quarter; management said fast-growing short loans distort it (S05).
  • Brazil's system-wide default rate rose from 3.96% to 5.04% over the year to August 2026 (C26).
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-04
C26facthigh confidence
The Central Bank of Brazil's total credit default rate rose from 3.96% in July 2025 to 5.04% in August 2026.
against this

The series covers the whole system, including companies; MercadoLibre says its own 15-90 day NPL is near historical lows (C07).

current state · 2026-08-31written 2026-10-04
C30management claimmedium confidence
Management says a year after lowering Brazil's free-shipping threshold, items sold there grew 56% against 26% a year earlier and conversion rose 1.1 points; users of both the marketplace and Mercado Pago spend 70% more and pay 90% more through it than single-sided users.
against this

The company does not disclose what share of users are on both sides or the cost of the free shipping, so the payback cannot be checked.

historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-04
C29management claimmedium confidence
Management says advertising passed 10% of Latin America's digital advertising market for the first time in the June 2026 quarter, with revenue up 62% FX-neutral.
against this

Advertising revenue is not reported separately, and no outside measure of the market share was found; the company does not say whose market estimate it used.

historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-04

What would change our view

  1. Neutral→AttractiveThe price stops asking for the recovery

    It needs:

    • ○The share price falls to 32 times the last four quarters' earnings per share, from about 46.about $1,175.11 today, 31% below the last close
  2. Neutral→AttractiveThe margin comes back with credit intact

    It needs all of:

    • ○Operating profit reaches 9 cents of each sales dollar in a quarter, from 6.7.checked at the next results, due by 4 Nov
    • ○Loans 15 to 90 days late stay at or below 7.5% of all loans, from 7.0%.checked at the next results, due by 4 Nov
  3. Neutral→UnattractiveThe credit build turns into losses

    It needs any of:

    • ○Lending profit after losses falls below 17% of all loans, from 20.7%.checked at the next results, due by 4 Nov
    • ○Brazil's profit before head-office costs falls below 7 cents per sales dollar, from 9.9.checked at the next results, due by 4 Nov
We would also be wrong if
  • Argentina's profit falls by a third in dollars within a year.

What is coming

  • 4 November 2026 Q3 2026 results: Whether the margin holds at 6.7% or better with NIMAL at 20% and the 15-90 day NPL at or below 7.5%; the pre-registered next test.
Every dated event ahead
  • 4 November 2026 Q3 2026 results: Whether the margin holds at 6.7% or better with NIMAL at 20% and the 15-90 day NPL at or below 7.5%; the pre-registered next test.
  • February 2027 Q4 and full-year 2026 results, with the 10-K: The new chief executive's first full year: whether operating income grew in dollars, and whether the 2027 consensus margin near 9% has a visible path.
  • April 2027 2027 proxy statement: What the board sets the new chief executive's bonus on, and whether margin or credit losses enter the metrics beside revenue and operating income.
Since we wrote this
Written
4 Oct
Price the thesis read
$1,696.56
2 Oct
  • 5 OctThesis reviewThe long case now sits under the verdictAfter the five-name pilot, the owner asked for the long case on every thesis.
  • 4 OctThesis writtenNeutral, medium convictionWritten as a watchlist candidate for Attractive, with the shares 30% below their high on a falling margin.
  • 4 OctThesis reviewChecklist added: revenue streams, cost of growth, management, catalystsThe owner's checklist found the method silent on who runs the company, what they own and are paid on, and what growth costs. Filled from the proxy and the 10-K.

Sources 23

Where this came from

Sources - 23

Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.

  1. S01primarycompany filing2026-02-25
    Item 1, logistics, competition classes, regulation, risk factors, segment note, Argentine inflation, 2024 and 2025 statements
    backsC01C02C08C31C33C40C41C46
  2. S02primarycompany release2026-02-24
    the year's growth, free-shipping rationale, buyers
    revenue growth of 45% YoY in Q4'25, capping a year in which we grew 39% YoY
    backsC02
  3. S03primarycompany filing2026-08-06
    income statement, segment contribution, loans and allowance, restricted cash, funding note, cash flow, card lines, buyback
    backsC03C04C05C06C09C11C12C14C15C16C31
  4. S04primarycompany release2026-08-05
    operating metrics, NIMAL, NPL, advertising, adjusted free cash flow
    we surpassed 10% share of the digital advertising market in Latin America for the first time, with net revenue growing 62% YoY on an FX-neutral basis
    backsC03C04C05C06C07C10C14C29C30
  5. S05primarytranscript2026-08-05
    Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held 2026-08-05
    margin drivers, reinvestment intent, card cohort economics, 90-day NPL exchange, Brazil free-shipping results
    each cohort typically reaches NIMAL breakeven after 12 to 18 months
    backsC07C10C29C30
  6. S06primarycompany release2026-05-07
    Q1 2026 revenue and operating income
    Income from operations decreased by 20% YoY as we chose to prioritize long-term growth investments over short-term profitability
    backsC21
  7. S07primarycompany filing2026-09-14
    size, coupon, use of proceeds, ratings
    backsC13
  8. S08secondaryvendor data2026-10-04
    Research pack, frozen beside this thesis (FMP market tier, SEC XBRL statements, FINRA)
    price, returns, multiple history, consensus series and estimates, short interest, daily closes, filed quarterly series
    backsC15C16C18C19C21C35
  9. S09primarycompany filing2026-04-17
    Shopee's own description of its Brazilian position
    Shopee is the largest e-commerce platform in Southeast Asia and Taiwan and is a leading e-commerce platform in Brazil.
    backsC23
  10. S10primarycompany filing2026-04-08
    Nu's product and its named competitors in Brazilian consumer credit
    We began our journey in 2013 with a small team, launching our first product, the Nu Credit Card, in Brazil in 2014.
    backsC24
  11. S11secondarynews2025-09-12
    the regulator's market-share and barrier findings, quoted from its communiqué; cofece.mx itself refused the repository's fetcher
    Amazon y Mercado Libre detentan más del 85% de las ventas y transacciones en el mercado de comercio electrónico minorista mexicano.
    backsC22
  12. S12primarygovernment data2026-10-04
    card balances and their growth
    20590-saldo-da-carteira-de-credito-com-recursos-livres---pessoas-fisicas---cartao-de-credito-total: 01/08/2025 654266; 01/08/2026 740378 (R$ millions)
    backsC25
  13. S13primarygovernment data2026-10-04
    total household credit
    20541-saldo-da-carteira-de-credito---pessoas-fisicas---total: 01/08/2025 4228171; 01/08/2026 4670170 (R$ millions)
    backsC25
  14. S14primarygovernment data2026-10-04
    the system default rate
    21082-inadimplencia-da-carteira-de-credito---total: 01/07/2025 3.96; 01/08/2026 5.04
    backsC26
  15. S15primarygovernment data2026-07-13
    the driver's rate and the prize's intensity factor
    Account ownership at a financial institution or with a mobile-money-service provider (% of population ages 15+): MEX 2011 27.4, 2024 53.0; BRA 2011 55.9, 2024 86.4; ARG 2011 33.1, 2024 81.7
    backsC27
  16. S16primarygovernment data2026-07-13
    adults by country
    Population ages 15-64, total 2024: BRA 146884644; MEX 87993476; ARG 30150350. Population ages 65 and above, total 2024: BRA 23424113; MEX 10794162; ARG 5673637.
    backsC28
  17. S17primarycompany filing2026-06-15
    Form 4 filings, October 2025 to September 2026 (read through insider_fetch.py)
    open-market purchases and sales with the Rule 10b5-1 flag
    backsC32
  18. S18primarycompany filing2026-06-12
    director votes
    backsC39C45
  19. S19secondarynews2026-09-24
    the one-hour delivery and pharmacy launch
    A solução promete entregar produtos pequenos de até 15 quilos em até 60 minutos, sendo operada por uma rede de entregadores parceiros.
    backsC34
  20. S20primarygovernment data2026-10-02
    the exchange rate used to convert card balances
    Dólar americano (venda), série 1, 02/10/2026: valor 5.2238 reais por dólar
    backsC25
  21. S22primarytranscript2024-11-06
    Q3 2024 earnings call transcript (FMP), held 2024-11-06
    the first credit-provision episode
    Our EBIT was $557 million with a 10.5% margin. The majority of the margin compression from last year comes from the strategic initiatives
    backsC35
  22. S23primarytranscript2026-05-07
    Q1 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held 2026-05-07
    the cause of the Q1 2026 provision rise
    We used to have loans typically on average of 5 months, and that has moved to 8 months.
    backsC21
  23. S24primarycompany filing2026-04-23
    CEO transition, executive officers and tenure, beneficial ownership table, annual bonus metrics and 2025 results, the 2025 long-term retention program, equity award policy
    backsC43C44C45
Rendered from content/MELI/thesis.json · thesis reviewed 2026-10-04. This page explains a company; it does not say what to pay, when to buy or how much.