← All thesesNSITNeutralMedium convictionSaturday 17 October 2026עברית

Insight Enterprises

A big middleman for business technology: it resells computers, servers, software and cloud subscriptions from Microsoft, Dell and Cisco, and sells the services to set them up.

Our viewNeutral Medium conviction
The scores
The profile · 1-4
Growth2/4 ↑

Sales fell in 2023, 2024 and 2025 and operating profit is where it was in 2021; 2026's 15% quarter rides hardware and acquired services.

Business quality2/4 →

Scale wins top vendor tiers and a rival calls Insight a leader, but vendors set its fees, sell direct, and its returns trail rivals'.

Financial position3/4 →

About $1.38B of net debt with inventory financing, a $2.0B facility to 2030 half undrawn and notes not due until 2032.

Execution record2/4 ↑

Beat estimates in five of eight quarters, but adjusted EPS was redefined in 2026 and charges called non-recurring recur every year.

Per share capture3/4 ↑

Buybacks far exceed share pay and diluted shares fell 21% in two years, but the 2025 convertible issued 2.83M shares and cost a warrant loss.

Potential2/4 →

The upside is a data-centre spending cycle and cloud fees that vendors control; partners' share of IT spending keeps falling and nothing is contracted.

Risk profile3/4 →

No client above 10%, but Microsoft is 32% of purchases and sets its fees yearly, and Middle East agency profit runs without a contract.

Valuation3/4 ↓

About 15.6 times GAAP operating profit prices today's profit holding with modest growth: fair for a reseller, with the hardware peak inside the base.

Evidence quality3/4 →

Statements, debt and mix are filed; the hardware split, backlog, agency business and size of vendor fee cuts rest on management or an analyst's example.

The Verdict

We rate Insight Neutral. It is a large, middling business: it resells other companies' technology, earns most of its profit on the services wrapped around it, and has not grown its operating profit since 2021, so the business is mixed. This year a wave of spending on AI servers and pricier memory lifted sales, and the shares rose about 150% from March. At roughly 16 times operating profit the price already assumes that recovery holds, so it is fair, not cheap. The view hinges on whether gross profit keeps growing once management's own "high watermark" quarter passes. Conviction is medium.

The long caseCompanies modernising their own data centres for AI need someone to source, configure and support the kit, and Insight is one of the largest partners doing it.

The evidence under this - 8 claims
C04facthigh confidence
In 2025 hardware was $4,630.1M of net sales, software $1,900.9M and services $1,716.2M. Products were 79% of sales but 41% of gross profit; services, including cloud, were 21% of sales and 59% of gross profit, up from 54% in 2023.
historical · FY2025written 2026-10-17
C44facthigh confidence
From 2021 to 2025 gross profit rose from $1,447.6M to $1,761.4M, 22%, while selling and administrative costs rose from $1,117.1M to $1,385.8M and GAAP earnings from operations stayed at $332.1M and $334.9M, after peaking at $419.8M in 2023. Trailing earnings from operations to June 2026 were $390.9M, 4.6% of sales.
against this

In the first half of 2026 gross profit rose about 16% against selling and administrative costs up 11% (C08), so the latest half shows leverage.

historical · FY2021-H1 2026written 2026-10-17
C06facthigh confidence
Insight's 10-K says partner funding programmes change regularly, reduce incentives and change the terms for earning them, that recent changes in incentives for cloud-based solutions hurt 2025 results, and that most vendor arrangements have no long-term contract and are easily terminable.
against this

Cloud gross profit grew 39% in the June 2026 quarter and is guided up in the high teens to low 20s for 2026 (C09, C10), so the 2025 cuts did not keep shrinking it.

historical · FY2025written 2026-10-17
C08facthigh confidence
In the quarter to 30 June 2026 net sales were $2,399.5M, up 15%, and gross profit $521.6M, up 18%, a 21.7% margin. GAAP earnings from operations were $131.0M (5.5% of sales) and adjusted $180.6M (7.5%); diluted EPS was $2.57 and adjusted $3.86, up 44%.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-17
C38management claimmedium confidence
The chief executive said Q2 'was always going to be a high watermark', that device units will keep falling for a few quarters with prices up, that servers, storage and networking should stay strong for longer, and that Q4 guidance is prudent given memory prices and supply.
against this

Gartner forecasts data-centre spending up 31.7% in 2026 (C34), which supports the infrastructure half of the remark more than the device half.

forwardwritten 2026-10-17
C21inferencemedium confidence
At $160.47 the company value is about $6.09B: the $4.71B market value plus $1.48B of long-term debt and $0.27B of inventory financing, less $0.36B of cash. Trailing GAAP earnings from operations to 30 June 2026 were $390.9M, so buyers pay about 15.6 times operating profit; on the 2026 adjusted EPS guide's midpoint of $12.45 the shares are about 12.9 times.
derivedThe market value and close (C19), the debt, inventory financing and cash (C16), trailing operating profit from the filed statements (C44, C08) and the guide (C10), combined arithmetically.
against this
  • Inventory financing is interest-free trade credit that some would leave out; without it the multiple is about 14.9.
  • Trailing profit includes $25.6M of earnout revaluation and other charges (C13); on the vendor's operating income the multiple is 13.4 (C23).
current state · 2026-10-16written 2026-10-17
C19facthigh confidence
On 16 October 2026 the shares closed at $160.47, a market value of $4.71B. Over six months the price rose 110% while trailing sales per share rose 7.0% and the price paid per dollar of sales rose 96%; over a year the price rose 48.5% on sales per share up 9.3%. The trailing P/E is 23.4 against a prior median of 16.7.
current state · 2026-10-16written 2026-10-17
C33estimatemedium confidence
Omdia expects partners' share of the total addressable IT market to fall to 66.7% in 2026 from 70.1% in 2025, continuing a decade-long decline as hyperscalers spend on cloud and AI infrastructure; North America is lowest at 61.1%, down from over 70% four years earlier. It also says vendors' relationship resets increasingly favour larger partners.
against this

Omdia expects partner-delivered spending itself to grow 6.7% in 2026, so the channel shrinks in share while still growing in dollars.

forwardwritten 2026-10-17
01

The company

Insight Enterprises sells business technology: laptops, servers, storage, networking, software licences and cloud subscriptions, bought from more than 6,000 makers and publishers and resold to companies and public bodies in North America, Europe and Asia.

A buyer could go to Dell or Microsoft directly. Many use Insight because one supplier can source, configure, license and support everything across countries. A rival's own annual report names Insight among the leaders in this trade. About 14,500 people work there, nearly half of them consultants and service staff.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C01facthigh confidence
Insight calls itself a Fortune 500 solutions integrator selling hardware, software and services, including cloud, to businesses and public bodies in North America, EMEA and Asia-Pacific. In 2025 it bought and resold products from over 6,000 partners, mostly direct from makers and publishers, the rest through distributors.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-17
C04facthigh confidence
In 2025 hardware was $4,630.1M of net sales, software $1,900.9M and services $1,716.2M. Products were 79% of sales but 41% of gross profit; services, including cloud, were 21% of sales and 59% of gross profit, up from 54% in 2023.
historical · FY2025written 2026-10-17
C32facthigh confidence
Insight had 14,505 employees at the end of 2025, including 3,561 in sales and 6,688 consultants and service delivery staff; sales per employee were about $569K against $925K in 2016.
against this

Sales per employee fell partly because agency sales are booked net and acquired services firms carry more staff per dollar, not only from lower productivity.

current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-17
C39facthigh confidence
PC Connection's 10-K for 2025 says it competes with 'other national solutions providers of IT products, including CDW Corporation, SHI, and Insight Enterprises, Inc., who are the current leaders in the space.'
current state · 2026-02-24written 2026-10-17

How it makes money

Most of the money that passes through Insight is hardware and software it resells: about four-fifths of sales, but only two-fifths of gross profit, because a reseller keeps a few cents on each dollar.

The other fifth of sales is services, and it earns three-fifths of gross profit. Part is consulting and running systems for clients. Part is fees from Microsoft, Google and others for selling their cloud subscriptions, and those fees are set by the vendors, not by Insight.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C04facthigh confidence
In 2025 hardware was $4,630.1M of net sales, software $1,900.9M and services $1,716.2M. Products were 79% of sales but 41% of gross profit; services, including cloud, were 21% of sales and 59% of gross profit, up from 54% in 2023.
historical · FY2025written 2026-10-17
C09facthigh confidence
In the June 2026 quarter hardware sales rose 21%, with double-digit growth in devices and infrastructure, and on-premises software fell. Cloud gross profit was $171M, up 39%; Insight Core services gross profit $95M, up 21%, mostly from acquisitions; hardware gross profit rose 10% while its margin fell 110 basis points.
against this

Core services growth came mostly from acquired businesses, with modest organic growth (C26), and part of the cloud rise is Sekuro's security software, bought in October 2025 (C30).

historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-17
C05facthigh confidence
In 2025 purchases from Microsoft were about 32% of Insight's total and from TD Synnex 12%; its top five partners (Microsoft, TD Synnex, Google, Cisco, Ingram Micro) were about 63%. Microsoft products were about 17% of net sales, and the top five makers' products about 50%.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-17
Where the money comes from, stream by stream
StreamShare of sales (FY2025)How it earns it
Hardware56.1%Devices, servers, storage and networking bought from makers and distributors and resold, often configured; booked gross.
Software23.0%On-premises licences resold under vendors' agreements; booked gross, shrinking as clients move to cloud.
Services, including cloud20.8%Consulting, deployment and managed services, plus agency fees on cloud subscriptions and maintenance booked net; 59% of gross profit.

Who runs it

Jack Azagury became chief executive in April 2026 after almost three decades at Accenture, where he ran its global consulting arm. He says Insight is too decentralised and under-invested in its own growth, and has a three-year plan aimed at AI infrastructure and services for mid-sized clients. Directors and executives own about 1% of the company. Their bonuses pay on adjusted profit and cloud and services growth, not on GAAP profit or cash per share.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C25facthigh confidence
Jack Azagury became president and chief executive on 13 April 2026, succeeding Joyce Mullen on her retirement. He spent over 29 years at Accenture, leading its global consulting business from June 2022 to September 2025. James Morgado has been CFO since January 2025, after joining from Synopsys in 2022.
current state · 2026-04-13written 2026-10-17
C26management claimmedium confidence
The new chief executive's three-year 'One Insight' plan invests in AI infrastructure and AI services, including security, with a focus on mid-market clients, and aims for operating leverage; he said the business is too decentralised, has under-invested in its organic growth vectors, and that he is 'still not pleased' with organic services growth.
against this

Core services growth in the June quarter came mostly from acquisitions, with modest organic growth (C09), so the plan starts from a weak organic base.

forwardwritten 2026-10-17
C27facthigh confidence
At 27 February 2026 directors and executive officers held 372,135 shares, 1.21% of the company; BlackRock held 14.3%, Vanguard 13.3%, FMR 10.5% and Morgan Stanley 8.2%.
current state · 2026-02-27written 2026-10-17
C28facthigh confidence
Executives' cash bonus pays on adjusted earnings from operations, cloud gross profit and core services gross profit. Equity is 60% performance units, half on one-year adjusted return on invested capital and half on three-year relative shareholder return, and 40% time-vested; the 2025 return award paid 50% of target against a 16.00-16.25% target range.
current state · 2026-04-02written 2026-10-17
02

Why it wins, and who could beat it

Why customers come back

Insight's edge is size. Being one of the largest partners wins it the top tiers of vendors' programmes, better buying terms and the right to sell to big public contracts, and a rival names it among the leaders.

But size buys access, not pricing power. Vendors change their partner programmes often and can end most of them easily. Microsoft is about a third of what Insight buys. And Insight earns less on its capital and on each dollar of sales than the three listed rivals that sell the same things.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C05facthigh confidence
In 2025 purchases from Microsoft were about 32% of Insight's total and from TD Synnex 12%; its top five partners (Microsoft, TD Synnex, Google, Cisco, Ingram Micro) were about 63%. Microsoft products were about 17% of net sales, and the top five makers' products about 50%.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-17
C06facthigh confidence
Insight's 10-K says partner funding programmes change regularly, reduce incentives and change the terms for earning them, that recent changes in incentives for cloud-based solutions hurt 2025 results, and that most vendor arrangements have no long-term contract and are easily terminable.
against this

Cloud gross profit grew 39% in the June 2026 quarter and is guided up in the high teens to low 20s for 2026 (C09, C10), so the 2025 cuts did not keep shrinking it.

historical · FY2025written 2026-10-17
C23factmedium confidence
Against CDW, PC Connection and ePlus on the vendor's trailing figures, Insight's company value to operating profit is 13.4 against a median of 14.5, its return on invested capital 7.6% against 10.3%, its operating margin 5.3% against 6.9% and its sales growth 2.7% against 7.4%, the lowest of the four.
against this

The vendor's 2025 operating income for Insight is $375.6M against $334.9M filed, 12% higher because it leaves out severance and acquisition charges, so the cohort figures for Insight read better than the filing.

current state · 2026-10-17written 2026-10-17
C39facthigh confidence
PC Connection's 10-K for 2025 says it competes with 'other national solutions providers of IT products, including CDW Corporation, SHI, and Insight Enterprises, Inc., who are the current leaders in the space.'
current state · 2026-02-24written 2026-10-17

The threat

The threat is the vendors themselves. Microsoft, Dell and Cisco sell direct to large clients, and cloud companies sell their own services. An analyst firm expects partners' share of IT spending to keep falling, as it has for a decade.

Microsoft has already cut the fee partners earn on big licence deals: on one worked example, from about $148,000 a year to $7,600.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C07facthigh confidence
The 10-K says Insight sometimes competes directly with Microsoft, Cisco, Dell, HP and Adobe, which sell direct to business customers, particularly large enterprise and corporate ones, and names CDW, Presidio, World Wide Technology, SHI and Computacenter among resellers and Accenture, Capgemini, Atos, HCL, TCS and Infosys among consultancies.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-17
C33estimatemedium confidence
Omdia expects partners' share of the total addressable IT market to fall to 66.7% in 2026 from 70.1% in 2025, continuing a decade-long decline as hyperscalers spend on cloud and AI infrastructure; North America is lowest at 61.1%, down from over 70% four years earlier. It also says vendors' relationship resets increasingly favour larger partners.
against this

Omdia expects partner-delivered spending itself to grow 6.7% in 2026, so the channel shrinks in share while still growing in dollars.

forwardwritten 2026-10-17
C35factmedium confidence
Gartner's analyst calculated that a Microsoft enterprise licensing partner serving a 1,000-seat Microsoft 365 E5 agreement earned about $148,000 a year in incentives, a 12% rebate plus a 1.25% account fee, and that from January 2025 the incentive for the same product dropped to $7,600 as Microsoft moved licensing to its customer agreement and CSP.
against this

Microsoft says partners still earn incentives on enterprise agreement renewals and upsell and can earn more on outcome-based work, and the cut hit a subset of agreements rather than all.

historical · 2024-2025written 2026-10-17

The rivals: MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, CDW, CNXN, PLUS, ACN, INFY.

Who else does this, rival by rival
TickerRivalWhere it competesHow far alongPriced against it
MSFT · GOOGLMicrosoft and Google selling direct to large clients and cutting partner feesPriced against it: One segment onlyIT resale and services to businesses and public bodiesOn saleOne segment only
AMZN · MSFT · GOOGLHyperscalers selling capacity and software through their own marketplacesPriced against it: One segment onlyIT resale and services to businesses and public bodiesOn saleOne segment only
CDW · CNXN · PLUSCDW, PC Connection, ePlus and private resellers such as SHI and World Wide TechnologyPriced against it: YesIT resale and services to businesses and public bodiesOn saleYes
ACN · INFYConsultancies such as Accenture and InfosysPriced against it: One segment onlyIT resale and services to businesses and public bodiesOn saleOne segment only
03

How big it could get

How big this could get

The market Insight sells into is large and growing. Gartner expects worldwide IT spending of $6.15T in 2026, up 10.8%, with data-centre systems up nearly a third on AI.

Much of that growth is the cloud giants building their own data centres, bought direct from makers. Omdia expects partners to handle about two-thirds of IT spending in 2026, down from 70.1% a year earlier: still most of the market, but a shrinking share.

The evidence under this - 2 claims
C33estimatemedium confidence
Omdia expects partners' share of the total addressable IT market to fall to 66.7% in 2026 from 70.1% in 2025, continuing a decade-long decline as hyperscalers spend on cloud and AI infrastructure; North America is lowest at 61.1%, down from over 70% four years earlier. It also says vendors' relationship resets increasingly favour larger partners.
against this

Omdia expects partner-delivered spending itself to grow 6.7% in 2026, so the channel shrinks in share while still growing in dollars.

forwardwritten 2026-10-17
C34estimatemedium confidence
Gartner forecasts worldwide IT spending of $6.15T in 2026, up 10.8%, with data-centre systems up 31.7% to more than $650B and devices reaching $836B, slowed by rising memory prices.
against this

Most of the data-centre growth is hyperscalers' own build-out, bought direct from makers, so little of the 10.8% passes through partners like Insight (C33).

forwardwritten 2026-10-17
Where the growth is coming from, business by business

Where the growth is coming from

BusinessShare of revenueGrowth: last quarterLast half-yearLast yearShare in 3 years at its latest-quarter rate
Hardware Net Sales57%+6.9%--61%
Service22%+16.6%--30%
Software Net Sales21%-21.2%--9%
Whole company100%+1.2%--100%

On the filed split through 2026-03-31, if each business keeps its latest quarter's growth, the company grows about 3% next year and 6% in year 3, against 2.7% over the last twelve months. Service grows fastest: it grows 17% against -1% for the rest, and would be 30% of revenue by then. A scenario, not a forecast: no business holds its rate.

How we read it: The blend: services are 22% of sales and their 16.6% growth includes bought consultancies, while hardware, most of sales and of the cycle, sets the total.

04

The results

The numbers

Is it growing?Slow

Sales grew 2.7% over the twelve months to Jun 2026, faster than the −5.2% in the year to Dec 2025.

Dec 2021: $9.44BDec 2022: $10.4BDec 2023: $9.18BDec 2024: $8.70BDec 2025: $8.25B12 mo to Jun 2026: $8.58B$9.44B$8.58B
Is it profitable?Thin

Operating margin is 4.6%, about where it was (4.6%) in the year to Dec 2023.

Dec 2021: 3.5%Dec 2022: 4.0%Dec 2023: 4.6%Dec 2024: 4.5%Dec 2025: 4.1%12 mo to Jun 2026: 4.6%3.5%4.6%
Does growth pay off?Flat

Running costs take 18¢ of each sales dollar, up from 12¢ in the year to Dec 2021.

Dec 2021: 12¢Dec 2022: 12¢Dec 2023: 14¢Dec 2024: 16¢Dec 2025: 17¢12 mo to Jun 2026: 18¢12¢18¢
Does it earn good returns?Low

Each dollar put into the business earns 9.2% a year after tax, about where it was (14%) in the year to Dec 2021.

Dec 2021: 14%Dec 2022: 15%Dec 2023: 13%Dec 2024: 11%Dec 2025: 8.3%12 mo to Jun 2026: 9.2%14%9.2%
Is it making cash?Thin

It turned 4.6% of sales into free cash, $397M over the last twelve months.

Dec 2021: $112MDec 2022: $27.2MDec 2023: $580MDec 2024: $586MDec 2025: $279M12 mo to Jun 2026: $397M$112M$397M
Is the balance sheet safe?Heavy debt

It owes $1.11B more than the cash it holds, about 2.6 years of the cash its operations bring in.

Dec 2021: −$258MDec 2022: −$474MDec 2023: −$672MDec 2024: −$605MDec 2025: −$1.00B12 mo to Jun 2026: −$1.11B−$258M−$1.11B
Are shares being diluted?Shrinking

The share count fell 18% in 4.5 years, and pay in shares costs 0.4% of sales.

Dec 2021: 36.9MDec 2022: 36.6MDec 2023: 37.2MDec 2024: 38.1MDec 2025: 32.3M12 mo to Jun 2026: 30.2M36.9M30.2M
All the numbers

Filed figures from the company's 10-K and 10-Q, read 2026-10-17. Fiscal years end in December.

Dec 2021Dec 2022Dec 2023Dec 2024Dec 202512 mo to Jun 2026
Size and growth
Sales$9.44B$10.4B$9.18B$8.70B$8.25B$8.58B
Sales growth+13%+11%−12%−5.2%−5.2%+2.7%
Profit
Gross margin15%16%18%20%21%22%
Operating margin3.5%4.0%4.6%4.5%4.1%4.6%
Net margin2.3%2.7%3.1%2.9%1.9%2.5%
What growth costs, per sales dollar
Selling, general and admin12%12%13%15%17%17%
Pay in shares0.2%0.2%0.3%0.4%0.4%0.4%
Capital spending0.6%0.7%0.4%0.5%0.3%0.3%
Cash
Cash from operations$164M$98.1M$620M$633M$304M$423M
Free cash flow$112M$27.2M$580M$586M$279M$397M
Balance sheet
Cash and short-term investments$104M$164M$269M$259M$358M$363M
Debt$362M$638M$941M$864M$1.36B$1.48B
Net cash−$258M−$474M−$672M−$605M−$1.00B−$1.11B
Returns and shares
Return on capital14%15%13%11%8.3%9.2%
Shares (diluted)36.9M36.6M37.2M38.1M32.3M30.2M

What growth costs

Growth has not paid off so far. From 2021 to 2025 gross profit rose by about a fifth, but selling and running costs rose slightly faster, so operating profit ended where it started. The first half of 2026 was the first sign of change: gross profit grew faster than costs.

The evidence under this - 2 claims
C44facthigh confidence
From 2021 to 2025 gross profit rose from $1,447.6M to $1,761.4M, 22%, while selling and administrative costs rose from $1,117.1M to $1,385.8M and GAAP earnings from operations stayed at $332.1M and $334.9M, after peaking at $419.8M in 2023. Trailing earnings from operations to June 2026 were $390.9M, 4.6% of sales.
against this

In the first half of 2026 gross profit rose about 16% against selling and administrative costs up 11% (C08), so the latest half shows leverage.

historical · FY2021-H1 2026written 2026-10-17
C08facthigh confidence
In the quarter to 30 June 2026 net sales were $2,399.5M, up 15%, and gross profit $521.6M, up 18%, a 21.7% margin. GAAP earnings from operations were $131.0M (5.5% of sales) and adjusted $180.6M (7.5%); diluted EPS was $2.57 and adjusted $3.86, up 44%.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-17

The last report (6 Aug)

Quarter ended June 2026, filed figures.

15%
Sales growth
against the same quarter a year earlier
12.8%
Growth from the quarter before
against 3.9% the quarter before that
5¢
Operating profit
per dollar of sales

The quarter to June 2026 was Insight's best in years. Sales rose 15% and gross profit 18%, led by hardware up 21% as clients bought AI servers and paid more for memory. Cloud gross profit jumped 39%. Management raised its 2026 earnings guide.

Then it added a warning. The chief executive called the quarter a high watermark, said device sales will keep falling for a few quarters, and guided a flatter second half.

What it did to the thesisIt proved demand for AI servers reached Insight's clients and that cloud fees can still grow. It left open the question the view hinges on: whether growth survives the harder comparisons ahead, since management itself expects the second half to be flatter.

The quarter in detail

Sales growth from the previous quarter, filed figures.

Earnings per share $3.86 against $2.93 expected; $2.57 as filed, the gap being what the company adds back.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C08facthigh confidence
In the quarter to 30 June 2026 net sales were $2,399.5M, up 15%, and gross profit $521.6M, up 18%, a 21.7% margin. GAAP earnings from operations were $131.0M (5.5% of sales) and adjusted $180.6M (7.5%); diluted EPS was $2.57 and adjusted $3.86, up 44%.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-17
C09facthigh confidence
In the June 2026 quarter hardware sales rose 21%, with double-digit growth in devices and infrastructure, and on-premises software fell. Cloud gross profit was $171M, up 39%; Insight Core services gross profit $95M, up 21%, mostly from acquisitions; hardware gross profit rose 10% while its margin fell 110 basis points.
against this

Core services growth came mostly from acquired businesses, with modest organic growth (C26), and part of the cloud rise is Sekuro's security software, bought in October 2025 (C30).

historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-17
C10management claimmedium confidence
Management guides 2026 adjusted diluted EPS, now excluding share pay, to $12.20-12.70, raised from $11.00-11.50 in February; gross profit growth of 8-10% at a 21.5-22% margin; cloud gross profit up high teens to low 20s, core services low double digits and hardware low single digits; management expects earnings growth to slow in the fourth quarter.
against this
  • The guide's arithmetic leaves second-half adjusted EPS flat to lower on a year earlier (C11).
  • The chief executive called Q2 a high watermark and cited memory prices and supply as reasons for a prudent fourth quarter (C38).
forwardwritten 2026-10-17
C38management claimmedium confidence
The chief executive said Q2 'was always going to be a high watermark', that device units will keep falling for a few quarters with prices up, that servers, storage and networking should stay strong for longer, and that Q4 guidance is prudent given memory prices and supply.
against this

Gartner forecasts data-centre spending up 31.7% in 2026 (C34), which supports the infrastructure half of the remark more than the device half.

forwardwritten 2026-10-17
What management did with the money

For three years Insight spent its cash on buying cloud and security consultancies and on buybacks of about $150M a year, which cut the diluted share count by a fifth in two years. In 2026 it paused acquisitions and is putting spare cash into buybacks.

Insiders in 2026Q3: 4 purchases and 2 sales, from their Form 4 filings.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C17facthigh confidence
Insight bought back about 1.2M shares for $151.1M in 2025 and $150.0M in the first half of 2026, and plans to spend the remaining $149M of its authorisation in 2026 with acquisitions paused. Diluted weighted shares were 38.1M in 2024, 32.3M in 2025 and 30.2M in the June 2026 quarter; 29.5M were outstanding at 30 June.
historical · FY2024-Q2 2026written 2026-10-17
C18facthigh confidence
Convertible notes that matured in February 2025 were settled with $333.1M of cash for principal and 2.83M new shares for the excess; Insight also settled part of the related warrants in cash, booking a $25.1M loss, and borrowed a net $818.8M on its facility in 2025.
historical · FY2025written 2026-10-17
C30facthigh confidence
Insight bought SADA (Google Cloud services) and Amdaris in 2023, Infocenter (ServiceNow) and NWT in 2024, and Inspire11 and Sekuro (security, Asia-Pacific) in October 2025, with earnouts on several; it paused acquisitions in 2026.
historical · 2023-2026written 2026-10-17
05

The price, and where we disagree

In short. Fair. The price already pays for this year's recovery holding, with modest growth after it; it is not paying for a decline, and not for a lasting boom either.

Share price
$160.47
close,
Company value for each $1 of operating profit
13.4
rivals' middle 14.5

The shares fell to a low in March 2026, then rose about 150% after two strong quarters, mostly because buyers began paying more for each dollar of sales rather than because sales grew much.

The next test is the third-quarter report on 5 November 2026. The full-year guide implies second-half earnings roughly flat on a year earlier, so that report shows whether the recovery outlasts the hardware peak.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C20facthigh confidence
The shares closed at a high of $225.24 on 26 July 2024, $169.30 on 6 February 2025 and a low of $64.43 on 30 March 2026, then rose 149% to $160.47 by 16 October 2026, including 19% the day after the first-quarter results.
historical · 2024-07 to 2026-10written 2026-10-17
C19facthigh confidence
On 16 October 2026 the shares closed at $160.47, a market value of $4.71B. Over six months the price rose 110% while trailing sales per share rose 7.0% and the price paid per dollar of sales rose 96%; over a year the price rose 48.5% on sales per share up 9.3%. The trailing P/E is 23.4 against a prior median of 16.7.
current state · 2026-10-16written 2026-10-17
C38management claimmedium confidence
The chief executive said Q2 'was always going to be a high watermark', that device units will keep falling for a few quarters with prices up, that servers, storage and networking should stay strong for longer, and that Q4 guidance is prudent given memory prices and supply.
against this

Gartner forecasts data-centre spending up 31.7% in 2026 (C34), which supports the infrastructure half of the remark more than the device half.

forwardwritten 2026-10-17
C42facthigh confidence
Insight beat the vendor's adjusted EPS estimate in 5 of the last 8 quarters: $3.86 against $2.93 in Q2 2026, $2.88 against $2.45 in Q1 2026 and $2.96 against $2.82 in Q4 2025, after $2.43 against $2.49 in Q3 2025. The next report is due 5 November 2026 against an estimate of $2.85.
historical · Q3 2024-Q2 2026written 2026-10-17
C11inferencemedium confidence
The 2026 guide implies second-half adjusted EPS of about $5.46-5.96, against about $5.83 in the second half of 2025 on the same basis: between 6% lower and 2% higher.
derivedThe full-year guide of $12.20-12.70 (C10) less first-half adjusted EPS of $2.88 and $3.86 (C42, C08); 2025's second half was $2.43 and $2.96 on the old basis, plus about $0.44 of share pay at the restated 2025 total of $10.75 against $9.87 (C12, C42).
against this

The February guide was beaten by about $1.20 at the midpoint within six months (C10), so management has guided low this year.

forwardwritten 2026-10-17
How we read the multiple

Buyers pay about 16 times Insight's operating profit, counting its debt. That is a fair price for a reseller whose profit has been flat, and the profit counted already includes this year's hardware peak.

The company prefers an adjusted figure that leaves out charges it calls one-offs. On that figure the shares look cheaper, about 13 times next year's guide. But restructuring and similar charges have come every year, so we use the reported profit.

Against its own history. Dearer than this company's own normal, after a rise that came mostly from buyers paying more rather than from the business growing.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C21inferencemedium confidence
At $160.47 the company value is about $6.09B: the $4.71B market value plus $1.48B of long-term debt and $0.27B of inventory financing, less $0.36B of cash. Trailing GAAP earnings from operations to 30 June 2026 were $390.9M, so buyers pay about 15.6 times operating profit; on the 2026 adjusted EPS guide's midpoint of $12.45 the shares are about 12.9 times.
derivedThe market value and close (C19), the debt, inventory financing and cash (C16), trailing operating profit from the filed statements (C44, C08) and the guide (C10), combined arithmetically.
against this
  • Inventory financing is interest-free trade credit that some would leave out; without it the multiple is about 14.9.
  • Trailing profit includes $25.6M of earnout revaluation and other charges (C13); on the vendor's operating income the multiple is 13.4 (C23).
current state · 2026-10-16written 2026-10-17
C13facthigh confidence
Adjusted earnings exclude amortisation of acquired intangibles, earnout revaluations, severance, transformation costs, acquisition costs and, from 2026, share pay. In 2025 adjusted earnings from operations were $504.0M against $334.9M GAAP; in the first half of 2026 the items included $42.1M of amortisation, $25.6M of earnout revaluation, $16.3M of transformation, $12.3M of severance and $19.3M of share pay.
against this

Amortisation is a non-cash charge for acquisitions already paid for, and the earnout revaluation reflects acquired businesses doing better than expected, so part of the gap is not a running cost.

historical · FY2025-H1 2026written 2026-10-17
C14facthigh confidence
The 10-K and 10-Q say transformation costs are not expected to recur in the longer term, yet they were $13.1M in 2025, $8.3M in the first half of 2025 and $16.3M in the first half of 2026; severance was $37.1M in 2025.
historical · FY2025-H1 2026written 2026-10-17
C11inferencemedium confidence
The 2026 guide implies second-half adjusted EPS of about $5.46-5.96, against about $5.83 in the second half of 2025 on the same basis: between 6% lower and 2% higher.
derivedThe full-year guide of $12.20-12.70 (C10) less first-half adjusted EPS of $2.88 and $3.86 (C42, C08); 2025's second half was $2.43 and $2.96 on the old basis, plus about $0.44 of share pay at the restated 2025 total of $10.75 against $9.87 (C12, C42).
against this

The February guide was beaten by about $1.20 at the midpoint within six months (C10), so management has guided low this year.

forwardwritten 2026-10-17
Priced against its rivals

The competitors its own annual report names, each confirmed against the rival's filing. Measured on company value for each $1 of operating profit, cheapest first:

TickerCompanycompany value for each $1 of operating profit
PLUSePlus11.9×
NSITInsight Enterprises13.4×
CDWCDW14.5×
CNXNPC Connection16.9×

The middle of the other 3 is 14.5. Insight Enterprises, Inc. is 2nd cheapest of 4.

Rivals' figures come from a data provider, so read the spread of the group rather than any single pair.

A little below its listed rivals, which matches a business that earns less on its capital than they do.

Private or foreign rivals that cannot be priced: Presidio, World Wide Technology, SHI International, Computacenter plc, Capgemini SE, Atos SE, HCL Technologies, Tata Consultancy Services.

Where we disagree with the market

The market believes

A recovering technology supplier riding AI demand, worth paying more for after two strong quarters and a raised guide.

We believe

The recovery is real but already in the price; reported profit is lower than the adjusted figure suggests, and the second half looks flatter.

The market reads Insight on adjusted earnings, which look cheap. We read it on reported profit, because the charges left out of the adjusted figure recur every year.

On that reading, and with management's own guide implying a flat second half, the price already reflects the good news. We could be wrong if AI infrastructure spending keeps lifting both hardware and services, and the new chief executive gets costs to grow slower than gross profit.

What analysts say, and the evidence
Analysts positive
50%
of 4, 1 Oct
Four months earlier
60%
of 5, 1 Jun
The evidence under this - 5 claims
C21inferencemedium confidence
At $160.47 the company value is about $6.09B: the $4.71B market value plus $1.48B of long-term debt and $0.27B of inventory financing, less $0.36B of cash. Trailing GAAP earnings from operations to 30 June 2026 were $390.9M, so buyers pay about 15.6 times operating profit; on the 2026 adjusted EPS guide's midpoint of $12.45 the shares are about 12.9 times.
derivedThe market value and close (C19), the debt, inventory financing and cash (C16), trailing operating profit from the filed statements (C44, C08) and the guide (C10), combined arithmetically.
against this
  • Inventory financing is interest-free trade credit that some would leave out; without it the multiple is about 14.9.
  • Trailing profit includes $25.6M of earnout revaluation and other charges (C13); on the vendor's operating income the multiple is 13.4 (C23).
current state · 2026-10-16written 2026-10-17
C13facthigh confidence
Adjusted earnings exclude amortisation of acquired intangibles, earnout revaluations, severance, transformation costs, acquisition costs and, from 2026, share pay. In 2025 adjusted earnings from operations were $504.0M against $334.9M GAAP; in the first half of 2026 the items included $42.1M of amortisation, $25.6M of earnout revaluation, $16.3M of transformation, $12.3M of severance and $19.3M of share pay.
against this

Amortisation is a non-cash charge for acquisitions already paid for, and the earnout revaluation reflects acquired businesses doing better than expected, so part of the gap is not a running cost.

historical · FY2025-H1 2026written 2026-10-17
C14facthigh confidence
The 10-K and 10-Q say transformation costs are not expected to recur in the longer term, yet they were $13.1M in 2025, $8.3M in the first half of 2025 and $16.3M in the first half of 2026; severance was $37.1M in 2025.
historical · FY2025-H1 2026written 2026-10-17
C11inferencemedium confidence
The 2026 guide implies second-half adjusted EPS of about $5.46-5.96, against about $5.83 in the second half of 2025 on the same basis: between 6% lower and 2% higher.
derivedThe full-year guide of $12.20-12.70 (C10) less first-half adjusted EPS of $2.88 and $3.86 (C42, C08); 2025's second half was $2.43 and $2.96 on the old basis, plus about $0.44 of share pay at the restated 2025 total of $10.75 against $9.87 (C12, C42).
against this

The February guide was beaten by about $1.20 at the midpoint within six months (C10), so management has guided low this year.

forwardwritten 2026-10-17
C38management claimmedium confidence
The chief executive said Q2 'was always going to be a high watermark', that device units will keep falling for a few quarters with prices up, that servers, storage and networking should stay strong for longer, and that Q4 guidance is prudent given memory prices and supply.
against this

Gartner forecasts data-centre spending up 31.7% in 2026 (C34), which supports the infrastructure half of the remark more than the device half.

forwardwritten 2026-10-17
06

What could go wrong, and how we would know

The risks

  • Vendors set the fees Microsoft is about a third of what Insight buys and resets partner fees each year; another cut would hit the most profitable part of the business.
  • Vendors selling direct Microsoft, Dell and Cisco already sell direct to large clients, and partners' share of IT spending has fallen for a decade.
  • The hardware peak passes Management calls the June quarter a high watermark; higher memory prices are already cutting device sales across the industry.
  • An uncontracted Middle East business Insight earns fees as an agent for some Middle East clients and vendors with no contract guaranteeing the work continues.
  • Debt and supplier credit Net debt is about $1.4B including supplier financing, mostly on a borrowing facility, so a downturn would bite harder than the balance sheet suggests.
The evidence under this - 7 claims
C05facthigh confidence
In 2025 purchases from Microsoft were about 32% of Insight's total and from TD Synnex 12%; its top five partners (Microsoft, TD Synnex, Google, Cisco, Ingram Micro) were about 63%. Microsoft products were about 17% of net sales, and the top five makers' products about 50%.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-17
C06facthigh confidence
Insight's 10-K says partner funding programmes change regularly, reduce incentives and change the terms for earning them, that recent changes in incentives for cloud-based solutions hurt 2025 results, and that most vendor arrangements have no long-term contract and are easily terminable.
against this

Cloud gross profit grew 39% in the June 2026 quarter and is guided up in the high teens to low 20s for 2026 (C09, C10), so the 2025 cuts did not keep shrinking it.

historical · FY2025written 2026-10-17
C07facthigh confidence
The 10-K says Insight sometimes competes directly with Microsoft, Cisco, Dell, HP and Adobe, which sell direct to business customers, particularly large enterprise and corporate ones, and names CDW, Presidio, World Wide Technology, SHI and Computacenter among resellers and Accenture, Capgemini, Atos, HCL, TCS and Infosys among consultancies.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-17
C33estimatemedium confidence
Omdia expects partners' share of the total addressable IT market to fall to 66.7% in 2026 from 70.1% in 2025, continuing a decade-long decline as hyperscalers spend on cloud and AI infrastructure; North America is lowest at 61.1%, down from over 70% four years earlier. It also says vendors' relationship resets increasingly favour larger partners.
against this

Omdia expects partner-delivered spending itself to grow 6.7% in 2026, so the channel shrinks in share while still growing in dollars.

forwardwritten 2026-10-17
C38management claimmedium confidence
The chief executive said Q2 'was always going to be a high watermark', that device units will keep falling for a few quarters with prices up, that servers, storage and networking should stay strong for longer, and that Q4 guidance is prudent given memory prices and supply.
against this

Gartner forecasts data-centre spending up 31.7% in 2026 (C34), which supports the infrastructure half of the remark more than the device half.

forwardwritten 2026-10-17
C31facthigh confidence
Since 2025 Insight has acted as a paid pass-through agent for certain clients and their vendors in the Middle East (UAE and Saudi Arabia), booking only its fee as services sales; the 10-K says there is no contractual requirement or guarantee these clients and vendors keep using it.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-17
C16facthigh confidence
At 30 June 2026 Insight held $363.5M of cash against $1,475.1M of long-term debt, including $500M of 6.625% senior notes due May 2032 and $981.7M drawn on a $2.0B asset-based facility maturing December 2030, plus $266.6M of inventory financing. Receivables were $7.82B, payables $6.52B, equity $1.61B and goodwill $1.17B.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-17
What we still do not know
  • How much of 2026's hardware growth is higher prices rather than more units, and how much is AI equipment.
  • How much gross profit the Middle East agency work earns, and for how long.
  • Whether Insight is gaining or losing share against CDW and the private resellers.
  • How many dollars Microsoft's 2025 partner fee change cost Insight.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
C09facthigh confidence
In the June 2026 quarter hardware sales rose 21%, with double-digit growth in devices and infrastructure, and on-premises software fell. Cloud gross profit was $171M, up 39%; Insight Core services gross profit $95M, up 21%, mostly from acquisitions; hardware gross profit rose 10% while its margin fell 110 basis points.
against this

Core services growth came mostly from acquired businesses, with modest organic growth (C26), and part of the cloud rise is Sekuro's security software, bought in October 2025 (C30).

historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-17
C31facthigh confidence
Since 2025 Insight has acted as a paid pass-through agent for certain clients and their vendors in the Middle East (UAE and Saudi Arabia), booking only its fee as services sales; the 10-K says there is no contractual requirement or guarantee these clients and vendors keep using it.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-17
C23factmedium confidence
Against CDW, PC Connection and ePlus on the vendor's trailing figures, Insight's company value to operating profit is 13.4 against a median of 14.5, its return on invested capital 7.6% against 10.3%, its operating margin 5.3% against 6.9% and its sales growth 2.7% against 7.4%, the lowest of the four.
against this

The vendor's 2025 operating income for Insight is $375.6M against $334.9M filed, 12% higher because it leaves out severance and acquisition charges, so the cohort figures for Insight read better than the filing.

current state · 2026-10-17written 2026-10-17
C06facthigh confidence
Insight's 10-K says partner funding programmes change regularly, reduce incentives and change the terms for earning them, that recent changes in incentives for cloud-based solutions hurt 2025 results, and that most vendor arrangements have no long-term contract and are easily terminable.
against this

Cloud gross profit grew 39% in the June 2026 quarter and is guided up in the high teens to low 20s for 2026 (C09, C10), so the 2025 cuts did not keep shrinking it.

historical · FY2025written 2026-10-17
C35factmedium confidence
Gartner's analyst calculated that a Microsoft enterprise licensing partner serving a 1,000-seat Microsoft 365 E5 agreement earned about $148,000 a year in incentives, a 12% rebate plus a 1.25% account fee, and that from January 2025 the incentive for the same product dropped to $7,600 as Microsoft moved licensing to its customer agreement and CSP.
against this

Microsoft says partners still earn incentives on enterprise agreement renewals and upsell and can earn more on outcome-based work, and the cut hit a subset of agreements rather than all.

historical · 2024-2025written 2026-10-17

What would change our view

  1. Neutral→AttractiveA cheaper price on an unchanged business

    It needs all of:

    • ○The price falls to about 12 times operating profit, counting debt, from about 16 now.about ≈$123.44 today, 23% below the last close
    • ○Gross profit still grows at least 5% a year.checked at the next results, due by 5 Nov
  2. Neutral→AttractiveThe services mix lifts the margin for good

    It needs all of:

    • ○Operating profit reaches 5.5 cents on each dollar of sales, from 4.6 cents.checked at the next results, due by 5 Nov
    • ○Cloud gross profit keeps growing at least 15% a year.checked at the next results, due by 5 Nov
  3. Neutral→UnattractiveThe upswing ends or the fees fall again

    It needs any of:

    • ○Gross profit falls from a year earlier in a quarter.checked at the next results, due by 5 Nov
    • ○Cloud gross profit falls from a year earlier.checked at the next results, due by 5 Nov
We would also be wrong if
  • Microsoft's share of what Insight buys or sells drops by a third in a year, a sign vendors are taking clients direct.

What is coming

  • 5 November 2026 Q3 2026 results: Gross profit growth against the 8-10% guide, cloud and hardware gross profit, and whether the full-year EPS guide holds as memory prices bite.
Every dated event ahead
  • 5 November 2026 Q3 2026 results: Gross profit growth against the 8-10% guide, cloud and hardware gross profit, and whether the full-year EPS guide holds as memory prices bite.
  • February 2027 Q4 and full-year 2026 results with the 2027 guide: Whether 2027 gross profit grows after the hardware peak, and whether transformation charges end as the 10-K says.
Since we wrote this
Written
17 Oct
Price the thesis read
$160.47
16 Oct
  • 17 OctThesis writtenNeutral, medium convictionA big reseller in a hardware upswing; profit has been flat for five years and the price already holds the recovery.

Sources 17

Where this came from

Sources - 17

Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.

  1. S01primarycompany filing2026-02-12
    business, partners and purchase concentration, competition, risk factors on partner funding and agency sales, the sales mix, statements, debt, acquisitions, buybacks, headcount
    backsC01C02C03C04C05C06C07C14C15C17C18C25C29C30C31C32C44
  2. S02primarycompany release2026-02-05
    2025 GAAP and adjusted results, the change to adjusted EPS excluding share pay, the February 2026 guide
    backsC03C10C12C13C42
  3. S03primarycompany release2026-08-06
    Q2 sales, gross profit, GAAP and adjusted earnings, the non-GAAP reconciliation, cash flow, buybacks, the raised 2026 guide
    backsC08C09C10C13C14C15C17C42
  4. S04primarycompany filing2026-08-06
    balance sheet, debt and facility terms, share count, client concentration, EMEA agency transactions, the convertible notes history
    backsC02C08C14C15C16C17C18C23C29C31C44
  5. S05primarytranscript2026-08-06
    Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP)
    data/cache/transcripts/NSIT-2026Q2.json
    gross profit by line, the One Insight plan, the guide's assumptions, the high-watermark remark, devices against infrastructure, the M&A pause
    As we've said for some time, we always expected a stronger first half than second half and Q2 was always going to be a high watermark for us.
    backsC09C10C17C26C30C31C38
  6. S06primarytranscript2026-05-07
    Q1 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP)
    data/cache/transcripts/NSIT-2026Q1.json
    the chief executive's first priorities, organic services growth, the hardware backlog
    I'm still not pleased with where we are in our organic growth in the services business.
    backsC26C37C42
  7. S07primarycompany filing2026-04-02
    the new chief executive's background, beneficial ownership, bonus and equity measures, the 2025 return award
    backsC25C27C28
  8. S08primaryindustry data2026-01-28
    partner share of the addressable IT market, by region; vendor-delivered against partner-delivered growth; resets favouring larger partners
    Continuing the decade-long decline, partner share of the total addressable IT market will drop to 66.7% in 2026, down from 70.1% in 2025
    backsC33
  9. S09secondarynews2026-02-03
    IT spending in 2026 by category: total, data-centre systems, servers, software and devices
    Worldwide IT spending is expected to reach $6.15 trillion in 2026, up 10.8% from 2025, according to the latest forecast by Gartner
    backsC34
  10. S10secondarynews2024-12-16
    Gartner's worked example of a Microsoft enterprise agreement incentive before and after January 2025
    However, starting January 2025, the incentives drastically change, for the same product, dropping to $7,600.
    backsC35
  11. S11secondarynews2026-10-09
    third-quarter PC shipments by IDC and Omdia, memory's share of PC component cost
    IDC tells a similar story, estimating a 20.1 percent decline to 62.7 million units.
    backsC36
  12. S13primarycompany filing2026-02-24
    a rival naming the current leaders in IT solutions resale
    backsC39
  13. S14secondaryvendor data2026-10-17
    Research pack (FMP market data, FINRA short interest, filed headcount), frozen
    content/NSIT/research-pack.json
    price, market value, the price-move decomposition, valuation history, analyst ratings and estimates, short interest, the earnings history, the cohort figures, headcount
    backsC19C20C22C23C32C42
  14. S15primarycompany filing2026-10-16
    how the largest consultancy describes its competition
    backsC40
  15. S16primarycompany filing2026-10-17
    every open-market purchase and sale with its Rule 10b5-1 flag
    backsC24
  16. S17secondarynews2026-02-03
    IT spending in 2026 by category: total, data-centre systems, servers, software and devices
    Total data center spending is expected to increase 31.7%, surpassing $650 billion in 2026, up from nearly $500 billion the previous year.
    backsC34
  17. S18primaryindustry data2026-01-28
    partner share of the addressable IT market, by region; vendor-delivered against partner-delivered growth; resets favouring larger partners
    North America will record the lowest partner share, with partners accounting for 61.1% of the total addressable IT market in 2026, a sharp drop from over 70% just four years ago.
    backsC33
Rendered from content/NSIT/thesis.json · thesis reviewed 2026-10-17. This page explains a company; it does not say what to pay, when to buy or how much.