← All thesesDGIINeutralMedium convictionSaturday 3 October 2026עברית

Digi International

A Minnesota maker of rugged network boxes for machines, now charging yearly fees for the software that runs them.

Our viewNeutral Medium conviction
The scores
The profile · 1-4
Growth3/4 ↑

Q3 revenue rose 29%, about 18-21 points organic, after a 4.7% fall in fiscal 2024 and 1.5% in fiscal 2025.

Business quality3/4 ↑

Gross margin rose through a down year and leads rivals; lock-in is design and certification, but Lantronix and Semtech sell the same things.

Financial position3/4 →

Net debt of $81M against nine-month operating cash of $110.4M, but purchases are bought with a revolver now raised to $350M.

Execution record3/4 ↑

Raised the fiscal 2026 guide at least twice, but cut fiscal 2024's and missed the original doubling pace.

Per share capture3/4 →

Shares rise about 3% a year from stock pay with no buyback; adjusted profit adds back acquisition amortization and stock pay.

Potential2/4 →

Cellular connections grow about 16% a year, but the 2028 goal leans on purchases and no customer contract backs it.

Risk profile3/4 →

One distributor near 11% of sales, Asian manufacturing, and a cyclical hardware half; no single end market dominates.

Valuation2/4 ↓

About 20 times this year's adjusted profit before depreciation and 29.6 times trailing, against a six-year median of 16.8.

Evidence quality3/4 →

Segment figures and margins are filed; the organic split, the early-buying risk and the lock-in are estimates or management's word.

The Verdict

We rate Digi neutral. It makes rugged network boxes that connect machines, and charges yearly fees for the software that runs them. The business is solid, but about half of the jump in recurring revenue came from two purchases, and the hardware half is cyclical and may be running on early orders. The share price has roughly doubled in a year and assumes management's profit goal arrives on time, so it is full, not cheap. The view hinges on the hardware still growing, or the price falling back near its own normal. The subscription growth is real, but half of it was bought.

The long caseMore machines, sites and data-centre racks are connected and run remotely; Digi gains only if its hardware keeps growing beside the subscriptions that manage it.

The evidence under this - 8 claims
C01facthigh confidence
Digi sells hardware that connects machines to networks: cellular routers and modules, XBee radio modules, embedded computer boards and Opengear console servers, plus Remote Manager and Lighthouse software subscriptions that run them.
current state · 2025-09-30written 2026-10-03
C04facthigh confidence
Annualized recurring revenue was $191M at June 30, 2026, up 52%: $60M in Products & Services (up 100%, mostly Particle) and $131M in Solutions (up 36%, mostly Jolt).
against this

Digi's own definition counts term equipment rentals, extended warranties and support contracts, and the 10-K says it is unlikely to compare with other companies' ARR (S01).

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-03
C06estimatemedium confidence
Roughly 18% to 21% of Q3 2026's 29% revenue growth was organic: Products & Services grew 25%, mostly organic, while most of Solutions' 41% came from Jolt.
derivedRevenue rose $31.2M. Jolt was not owned in Q3 2025 and runs near $5.5M a quarter on its $20M-plus ARR; Particle is called not material, taken at $2M to $5M. That leaves $20M to $23M organic on $107.5M.
against this

Digi publishes no organic growth figure, and calls Particle's contribution not material although it added about $20M of ARR (S03, S06), so the split rests on an inference about two acquired revenue streams.

historical · Q3 2026written 2026-10-03
C05facthigh confidence
Jolt cost $145.5M net of cash in August 2025 with over $20M of ARR, and Particle $50.4M in January 2026 with about $20M; together about $40M of the $65M rise in ARR.
historical · August 2025 to January 2026written 2026-10-03
C07facthigh confidence
Revenue fell 4.7% in fiscal 2024 and grew only 1.5% in fiscal 2025, when Products & Services fell 2.0% as customers worked down stock bought during the shortage.
historical · fiscal 2024 and fiscal 2025written 2026-10-03
C20estimatehigh confidence
Company value of about $2.94B is 20.0 times the fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA guide midpoint of $146.75M, and 14.7 times the $200M fiscal 2028 goal.
derivedThe pack's enterprise value of $2,941M divided by $146.75M and by $200M (C08, C10, C17).
against this

Adjusted EBITDA adds back $13.4M of stock pay in nine months and acquisition costs (S04); on the pack's unadjusted basis the multiple is 29.6 (C17).

current state · 2026-10-02written 2026-10-03
C21inferencemedium confidence
The price pays for the $200M goal being reached on time: at 14.7 times that profit in 2028, a buyer gets a normal multiple only if the goal lands.
derivedC20 against Digi's own six-year median of 16.8 on the pack basis (C17), and the goal's need for more acquisitions (C10, C14).
against this

If recurring revenue keeps rising as a share of sales, a permanently higher multiple than the hardware years is defensible, and 16.8 is a hardware-era median (C04, C22).

forwardwritten 2026-10-03
C18facthigh confidence
Over the 252 sessions to 2026-10-02 the price rose 108.1%; sales per share rose 16.4% and the price paid per dollar of sales rose 78.9%.
historical · 2025-10-01 to 2026-10-02written 2026-10-03
01

The company

Digi International makes the small boxes that let machines talk to a network: cellular routers and modules, radio modules, embedded computer boards and Opengear console servers that let engineers reach data-centre equipment when the main network is down.

Its buyers are device makers who build a Digi module into their own product, and companies running fleets of routers in places with no IT staff. The boxes are assembled for it in Thailand, Mexico, Taiwan and Cambodia; the work Digi keeps is the radio certification and the software.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C01facthigh confidence
Digi sells hardware that connects machines to networks: cellular routers and modules, XBee radio modules, embedded computer boards and Opengear console servers, plus Remote Manager and Lighthouse software subscriptions that run them.
current state · 2025-09-30written 2026-10-03
C28inferencemedium confidence
Digi's lock-in is the device maker's design and certification: a product built on a certified Digi module, or a fleet run from Remote Manager, is costly to move.
derivedPTCRB certifies modules and devices built on certified modules (S19); Digi says buyers rank reliability first (S05); attach of management software is what grew Products & Services ARR (S01, C04).
against this

Digi discloses no retention or churn rate, and Products & Services fell 2.0% in fiscal 2025 as customers cut orders (C07).

current state · 2026-10-03written 2026-10-03
C38facthigh confidence
Digi's outsourced manufacturing sits in Thailand, Mexico, Taiwan and Cambodia, and its chips come from foundries mostly in Taiwan.
current state · 2025-09-30written 2026-10-03

How it makes money

The hardware business, IoT Products & Services, brought in 72% of revenue in the June quarter, mostly device sales through distributors and resellers. One distributor alone is about 11% of sales.

The rest comes from IoT Solutions, which sells sensors and software to restaurants, pharmacies and food chains to watch fridges and food safety. Across both halves, subscriptions now bring in $191M a year, and those are what Digi is trying to grow.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C02facthigh confidence
IoT Products & Services was $99.8M of Q3 2026 revenue (72%) and IoT Solutions $38.9M (28%); operating margins were 16.8% and 15.7%.
historical · Q3 2026written 2026-10-03
C04facthigh confidence
Annualized recurring revenue was $191M at June 30, 2026, up 52%: $60M in Products & Services (up 100%, mostly Particle) and $131M in Solutions (up 36%, mostly Jolt).
against this

Digi's own definition counts term equipment rentals, extended warranties and support contracts, and the 10-K says it is unlikely to compare with other companies' ARR (S01).

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-03
C15facthigh confidence
One distributor was 13% of fiscal 2025 revenue and 11% of the nine months to June 2026; distributors, integrators and resellers carried 60.2% of fiscal 2025 revenue.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-03
C05facthigh confidence
Jolt cost $145.5M net of cash in August 2025 with over $20M of ARR, and Particle $50.4M in January 2026 with about $20M; together about $40M of the $65M rise in ARR.
historical · August 2025 to January 2026written 2026-10-03
Where the money comes from, stream by stream
StreamShare of sales (Q3 FY2026)How it earns it
Products64.4%Cellular routers, modules, XBee radios, embedded boards and Opengear console servers sold once, mostly through distributors.
Services35.6%Subscriptions and managed services: Remote Manager, Lighthouse, SmartSense, Jolt, Particle and Ventus networks, billed monthly to annually.

Who runs it

Ron Konezny, who founded a truck-tracking company, has run Digi since 2014; James Loch has run its finances since 2019. Most of today's subscription revenue was bought rather than built. Insiders own about 3%, Konezny the most. Their bonus pays on subscription revenue, profit and sales, and their performance shares on subscription revenue, both counted without the year's purchases, so buying a company does not hit their targets. Nothing pays on cash.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C45facthigh confidence
Ronald Konezny has been Digi's president and chief executive since 2014, after founding and running PeopleNet, a truck telematics company Trimble bought in 2011; James Loch has been chief financial officer since May 2019.
current state · 2025-11-21written 2026-10-04
C43facthigh confidence
Directors and executive officers owned 3.4% of Digi as a group at 2025-12-08, 1,269,020 shares including 296,163 under options; the CEO's 1.5% was the largest insider stake, BlackRock held 15.6% and Conestoga 10.3%, and there is one class of common stock.
current state · 2025-12-08written 2026-10-04
C44facthigh confidence
The annual bonus pays on recurring revenue (40%), adjusted EBITDA (30%) and revenue (30%), each measured without the year's acquisitions, and paid 147% of target for fiscal 2025; half of executive equity is PSUs vesting on yearly ARR goals of $125.8M, $138.4M and $152.0M for fiscal 2025 to 2027, with a multiplier if three-year return beats the Russell 2000. Fiscal 2025 ARR was measured at $129.6M against the $152M reported, so Jolt counted toward neither.
current state · 2025-12-17written 2026-10-04
C46facthigh confidence
From fiscal 2020 to 2025 Digi paid $136.1M, $19.1M, $347.6M (Ventus, fiscal 2022) and $145.7M (Jolt) in cash for businesses, borrowed $350M in fiscal 2022 and repaid it to $123M of debt by fiscal 2024, sold $73.8M of stock in fiscal 2021, paid no dividend and bought back only shares withheld for tax; diluted shares rose from 29.5M in fiscal 2020 to 38.9M in Q3 fiscal 2026.
historical · fiscal 2020 to Q3 fiscal 2026written 2026-10-04
02

Why it wins, and who could beat it

Why customers come back

Once a device maker has certified its product on a Digi module, or a company runs hundreds of routers from Digi's management software, switching means redesigning or replacing the whole fleet. That is the lock-in.

The evidence is in the margin. Gross margin, the share of each sales dollar left after making the product, rose from 54.0% to 62.9% between fiscal 2021 and 2025, even in a year when sales fell, and it is the highest among Digi's filed rivals.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C28inferencemedium confidence
Digi's lock-in is the device maker's design and certification: a product built on a certified Digi module, or a fleet run from Remote Manager, is costly to move.
derivedPTCRB certifies modules and devices built on certified modules (S19); Digi says buyers rank reliability first (S05); attach of management software is what grew Products & Services ARR (S01, C04).
against this

Digi discloses no retention or churn rate, and Products & Services fell 2.0% in fiscal 2025 as customers cut orders (C07).

current state · 2026-10-03written 2026-10-03
C22facthigh confidence
Gross margin rose from 54.0% in fiscal 2021 to 62.9% in fiscal 2025, including fiscal 2024 when revenue fell, and reached 64.8% in Q3 2026.
historical · fiscal 2021 to Q3 2026written 2026-10-03
C04facthigh confidence
Annualized recurring revenue was $191M at June 30, 2026, up 52%: $60M in Products & Services (up 100%, mostly Particle) and $131M in Solutions (up 36%, mostly Jolt).
against this

Digi's own definition counts term equipment rentals, extended warranties and support contracts, and the 10-K says it is unlikely to compare with other companies' ARR (S01).

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-03

The threat

The routers themselves are not unique. A rival's annual report names Digi beside Cradlepoint, Inseego, Lantronix, Peplink and Sierra Wireless, and Lantronix sells the same console-server product to banks and AI data centres.

A device maker can also buy its cellular module from Semtech or an Asian maker, so the lock-in holds only where Digi's software and certification save real work.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C29facthigh confidence
Airgain's 10-K names Digi beside Cisco, Cradlepoint (Ericsson), Inseego, Lantronix, Peplink and Sierra Wireless (Semtech) as rival connectivity providers.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-03
C30facthigh confidence
Lantronix sells the same out-of-band management with its own fleet software to a Tier 1 bank and to AI data centres.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-03
C40inferencemedium confidence
Device makers can buy cellular modules from Semtech's Sierra Wireless line or from vertically integrated Asian makers, so Digi's module lock-in holds only where its software and certification save work.
derivedSemtech describes itself as a global leader in cellular modules (S15); Airgain names vertically integrated Asian rivals (S13); C28.
against this

Digi's Products & Services ARR doubled with attach of management software, which a bare module does not carry (C04).

current state · 2026-10-03written 2026-10-03

The rivals: ERIC, SMTC, LTRX, INSG, and 2 more that are private, in-house or listed abroad.

Who else does this, rival by rival
TickerRivalWhere it competesHow far alongPriced against it
ERICCradlepoint enterprise cellular routers and NetCloud (Ericsson)Priced against it: One segment onlyIoT Products & ServicesOn saleOne segment only
SMTCSierra Wireless AirLink routers and cellular modules (Semtech)Priced against it: YesIoT Products & ServicesOn saleYes
LTRXLantronix out-of-band management and PercepxionPriced against it: YesIoT Products & ServicesOn saleYes
INSGInseego 5G routers and Inseego ConnectPriced against it: YesIoT Products & ServicesOn saleYes
PrivatePeplink and Teltonika routersPriced against it: PrivateIoT Products & ServicesOn salePrivate
Not listedStandalone digital data loggers meeting Indiana's Policy 9 listPriced against it: Not listedIoT SolutionsOn saleNot listed
03

How big it could get

How big this could get

One outside count puts connected devices at 21.1 billion at the end of 2025, up 14%, with cellular connections, the part Digi sells into, growing about 16% a year.

Rules help the food and pharmacy business: Indiana, for example, requires a continuous temperature logger wherever publicly funded vaccine is stored. Nobody publishes how much of that market Digi could win.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C32factmedium confidence
IoT Analytics counts 21.1 billion connected devices at end-2025, up 14%, with cellular 22% of connections and growing 16% in 2024.
against this

IoT Analytics cut its 2025 forecast by about 300 million connections on capex deferrals and weak China demand (S17).

current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-03
C33facthigh confidence
Indiana's health department makes continuous data loggers, reading at least every 30 minutes, mandatory wherever publicly funded vaccine is stored.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-03
C04facthigh confidence
Annualized recurring revenue was $191M at June 30, 2026, up 52%: $60M in Products & Services (up 100%, mostly Particle) and $131M in Solutions (up 36%, mostly Jolt).
against this

Digi's own definition counts term equipment rentals, extended warranties and support contracts, and the 10-K says it is unlikely to compare with other companies' ARR (S01).

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-03
Where the growth is coming from, business by business

Where the growth is coming from

BusinessShare of revenueGrowth: last quarterLast half-yearLast yearShare in 3 years at its half-year rate
Product64%+20.4%+18.9%+13.7%50%
Service36%+47.9%+45.2%+35.3%50%
Whole company100%+29.0%+27.1%+20.3%100%

On the filed split through 2026-06-30, if each business keeps its last half-year's growth, the company grows about 28% next year and 31% in year 3, against 20.3% over the last twelve months. Service grows fastest: it grows 45% against 19% for the rest, and would be 50% of revenue by then. A scenario, not a forecast: no business holds its rate.

How we read it: The blend. Service's 45% is mostly Jolt and Particle, which were bought, and product's 19% is partly early ordering, so the score reads organic growth near 18-21 points.

04

The results

The numbers

Is it growing?Steady

Sales grew 20% over the twelve months to Jun 2026, faster than the 1.5% in the year to Sep 2025.

Sep 2021: $309MSep 2022: $388MSep 2023: $445MSep 2024: $424MSep 2025: $430M12 mo to Jun 2026: $506M$309M$506M
Is it profitable?Healthy

Operating margin is 14%, up from 11% in the year to Sep 2023.

Sep 2021: 3.4%Sep 2022: 9.8%Sep 2023: 11%Sep 2024: 11%Sep 2025: 13%12 mo to Jun 2026: 14%3.4%14%
Does growth pay off?Flat

Running costs take 50¢ of each sales dollar, about where it was (51¢) in the year to Sep 2021.

Sep 2021: 51¢Sep 2022: 46¢Sep 2023: 45¢Sep 2024: 48¢Sep 2025: 50¢12 mo to Jun 2026: 50¢51¢50¢
Does it earn good returns?Low

Each dollar put into the business earns 7.6% a year after tax, up from 2.2% in the year to Sep 2021.

Sep 2021: 2.2%Sep 2022: 6.1%Sep 2023: 6.7%Sep 2024: 6.5%Sep 2025: 6.1%12 mo to Jun 2026: 7.6%2.2%7.6%
Is it making cash?Strong

It turned 27% of sales into free cash, $136M over the last twelve months.

Sep 2021: $55.5MSep 2022: $35.8MSep 2023: $32.4MSep 2024: $80.9MSep 2025: $105M12 mo to Jun 2026: $136M$55.5M$136M
Is the balance sheet safe?Light debt

It owes $80.2M more than the cash it holds, about 0.6 years of the cash its operations bring in.

Sep 2021: $107MSep 2022: −$203MSep 2023: −$172MSep 2024: −$95.7MSep 2025: −$137M12 mo to Jun 2026: −$80.2M$107M−$80.2M
Are shares being diluted?Diluting

The share count rose 17% in 4.8 years, and pay in shares costs 3.4% of sales.

Sep 2021: 33.4MSep 2022: 36.0MSep 2023: 36.9MSep 2024: 37.0MSep 2025: 37.7M12 mo to Jun 2026: 38.9M33.4M38.9M
All the numbers

Filed figures from the company's 10-K and 10-Q, read 2026-10-04. Fiscal years end in September.

Sep 2021Sep 2022Sep 2023Sep 2024Sep 202512 mo to Jun 2026
Size and growth
Sales$309M$388M$445M$424M$430M$506M
Sales growth+11%+26%+15%−4.7%+1.5%+20%
Profit
Gross margin54%56%57%59%63%64%
Operating margin3.4%9.8%11%11%13%14%
Net margin3.4%5.0%5.6%5.3%9.5%9.6%
What growth costs, per sales dollar
Research and development15%14%13%14%15%15%
Sales and marketing20%18%18%20%21%21%
General and admin14%15%14%14%14%14%
Pay in shares2.6%2.2%3.0%3.1%3.6%3.4%
Capital spending0.7%0.5%1.0%0.5%0.6%0.5%
Cash
Cash from operations$57.7M$37.7M$36.8M$83.1M$108M$138M
Free cash flow$55.5M$35.8M$32.4M$80.9M$105M$136M
Balance sheet
Cash and short-term investments$152M$34.9M$31.7M$27.5M$21.9M$28.0M
Debt$45.8M$238M$204M$123M$159M$108M
Net cash$107M−$203M−$172M−$95.7M−$137M−$80.2M
Returns and shares
Return on capital2.2%6.1%6.7%6.5%6.1%7.6%
Shares (diluted)33.4M36.0M36.9M37.0M37.7M38.9M

What growth costs

Growing does not make each sale cheaper to win. Research, selling and running costs have taken about the same share of every sales dollar for six years, selling a little more. Profit margins widened because each sale earns more over what it costs to make, as subscriptions grew, not because costs fell behind sales.

The evidence under this - 2 claims
C42facthigh confidence
Research and development, sales and marketing and general and administrative took 47.5% of revenue in fiscal 2020, 45.4% in 2023, 49.8% in 2025 and 49.9% in the four quarters to June 2026; stock pay rose from 2.6% to 3.4% and capital spending stayed under 1%, while operating margin rose from 4.1% to 13.9% as gross margin rose from 51.6% to 63.8%.
historical · fiscal 2020 to the four quarters to June 2026written 2026-10-04
C22facthigh confidence
Gross margin rose from 54.0% in fiscal 2021 to 62.9% in fiscal 2025, including fiscal 2024 when revenue fell, and reached 64.8% in Q3 2026.
historical · fiscal 2021 to Q3 2026written 2026-10-03

The last report (5 Aug)

Quarter ended June 2026, filed figures.

29%
Sales growth
against the same quarter a year earlier
6.1%
Growth from the quarter before
against 6.8% the quarter before that
17¢
Operating profit
per dollar of sales

In the June quarter, Q3 of fiscal 2026, sales rose 29% to $138.7M. The hardware half grew 25%, mostly on its own, while IoT Solutions grew 41%, mostly because Digi bought Jolt.

Profit kept pace: operating margin was 16.5%. Management raised its full-year guide again and expects $138M to $142M in the September quarter.

So the growth is real, but roughly two thirds of it came without buying anything, and that two thirds is the part to watch.

What it did to the thesisIt showed the hardware half growing again on its own, which supports the case, but left open whether those orders are lasting demand or customers buying early ahead of shortages.

The quarter in detail

Sales growth from the previous quarter, filed figures.

Earnings per share $0.75 against $0.66 expected; $0.40 as filed, the gap being what the company adds back.

The evidence under this - 6 claims
C03facthigh confidence
Q3 2026 revenue was $138.7M, up 29%; gross margin 64.8%, operating margin 16.5%, adjusted EBITDA $40.4M or 29.1% of revenue.
historical · Q3 2026written 2026-10-03
C02facthigh confidence
IoT Products & Services was $99.8M of Q3 2026 revenue (72%) and IoT Solutions $38.9M (28%); operating margins were 16.8% and 15.7%.
historical · Q3 2026written 2026-10-03
C06estimatemedium confidence
Roughly 18% to 21% of Q3 2026's 29% revenue growth was organic: Products & Services grew 25%, mostly organic, while most of Solutions' 41% came from Jolt.
derivedRevenue rose $31.2M. Jolt was not owned in Q3 2025 and runs near $5.5M a quarter on its $20M-plus ARR; Particle is called not material, taken at $2M to $5M. That leaves $20M to $23M organic on $107.5M.
against this

Digi publishes no organic growth figure, and calls Particle's contribution not material although it added about $20M of ARR (S03, S06), so the split rests on an inference about two acquired revenue streams.

historical · Q3 2026written 2026-10-03
C04facthigh confidence
Annualized recurring revenue was $191M at June 30, 2026, up 52%: $60M in Products & Services (up 100%, mostly Particle) and $131M in Solutions (up 36%, mostly Jolt).
against this

Digi's own definition counts term equipment rentals, extended warranties and support contracts, and the 10-K says it is unlikely to compare with other companies' ARR (S01).

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-03
C09management claimmedium confidence
Q4 2026 guidance is revenue of $138M to $142M, adjusted EBITDA of $40.0M to $41.5M and adjusted EPS of $0.75 to $0.78.
against this

The midpoint of $140M is about 1% above Q3's $138.7M, a slowdown from the 6% to 7% quarterly rises of the prior three quarters (S20).

forwardwritten 2026-10-03
C08management claimmedium confidence
Fiscal 2026 guidance was raised at least twice: from revenue up 10% to 15% in November 2025 to $529M to $533M (up 23% to 24%) in August, with adjusted EBITDA $146.0M to $147.5M.
against this

The first raise was partly Particle, bought after the November guide, so not all of the lift is outperformance (S06).

forwardwritten 2026-10-03
What management did with the money

Management spent the cash on companies: Jolt for $145.5M and Particle for $50.4M, and now Disruptive Technologies at an undisclosed price. Each is paid from a bank credit line, now $350M, which the business's cash repays. Digi buys back no shares, so stock pay adds about 3% to the share count a year.

Insiders in 2026Q2: 5 purchases and 12 sales, from their Form 4 filings.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C05facthigh confidence
Jolt cost $145.5M net of cash in August 2025 with over $20M of ARR, and Particle $50.4M in January 2026 with about $20M; together about $40M of the $65M rise in ARR.
historical · August 2025 to January 2026written 2026-10-03
C12facthigh confidence
At June 30, 2026 debt was $109.0M against $28.0M of cash, net debt $81M, after $110.4M of operating cash flow in nine months.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-03
C13facthigh confidence
Digi replaced its $250M revolver with $350M due 2031, an accordion to $480M, and raised the net leverage covenant from 3.0 to 3.5 times.
current state · 2026-08-31written 2026-10-03
C14management claimlow confidence
Digi agreed on 2026-10-01 to buy Disruptive Technologies, a Norwegian sensor maker with $15M of 2025 revenue and $4M of ARR, on its revolver, expecting $9M more EBITDA in fiscal 2028; no price was given.
against this

The figures come from a secondary summary of the call; the release body did not load and no 8-K had been filed by 2026-10-03, so the price and terms are unread.

forwardwritten 2026-10-03
C24facthigh confidence
Diluted shares were 38.9M in Q3 2026 against 37.7M a year earlier, 3.4% more, from stock pay and option exercises; there is no buyback, and both deals were paid in cash.
historical · Q3 2026written 2026-10-03
05

The price, and where we disagree

In short. Full. The price pays for management's 2028 profit goal arriving on time, with nothing left for a slower hardware year.

Share price
$75.61
close,
Company value for each $1 of sales
5.8
rivals' middle 2.2
Company value for each $1 of cash profit
29.6
its 6-year normal 16.8

The share price has risen 108% in a year. Sales per share rose only 16.4% of that; the rest is buyers paying more for each dollar of sales.

Meanwhile the CEO says some customers are ordering early to secure parts before shortages, and Digi has just agreed another purchase. The September-quarter results on 11 November are the next check on both.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C18facthigh confidence
Over the 252 sessions to 2026-10-02 the price rose 108.1%; sales per share rose 16.4% and the price paid per dollar of sales rose 78.9%.
historical · 2025-10-01 to 2026-10-02written 2026-10-03
C17facthigh confidence
At $75.61 on 2026-10-02 the shares trade at 29.6 times trailing EBITDA against a six-year median of 16.8, and 5.8 times sales against 2.6.
current state · 2026-10-02written 2026-10-03
C25management claimmedium confidence
The CEO says part of the order pickup is customers placing orders early to secure deliveries as memory and other parts run short.
against this

The CFO tied faster deal closing to a growing pipeline at every stage, not only to urgency (S05).

current state · 2026-08-05written 2026-10-03
C14management claimlow confidence
Digi agreed on 2026-10-01 to buy Disruptive Technologies, a Norwegian sensor maker with $15M of 2025 revenue and $4M of ARR, on its revolver, expecting $9M more EBITDA in fiscal 2028; no price was given.
against this

The figures come from a secondary summary of the call; the release body did not load and no 8-K had been filed by 2026-10-03, so the price and terms are unread.

forwardwritten 2026-10-03
How we read the multiple

Buyers pay about 20 times the profit before depreciation that Digi expects this year. What has to be true:

1. Management reaches its goal of $200M of that profit by fiscal 2028. 2. At that point the price is about 15 times profit, a normal level for a business like this. 3. If the goal is late or needs more purchases, the buyer has paid ahead for growth.

Nothing in the price allows for the hardware half slowing again.

Against its own history. Far dearer than Digi's own normal, while part of the improvement was bought, so the gap prices in more than the business has proven.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C20estimatehigh confidence
Company value of about $2.94B is 20.0 times the fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA guide midpoint of $146.75M, and 14.7 times the $200M fiscal 2028 goal.
derivedThe pack's enterprise value of $2,941M divided by $146.75M and by $200M (C08, C10, C17).
against this

Adjusted EBITDA adds back $13.4M of stock pay in nine months and acquisition costs (S04); on the pack's unadjusted basis the multiple is 29.6 (C17).

current state · 2026-10-02written 2026-10-03
C21inferencemedium confidence
The price pays for the $200M goal being reached on time: at 14.7 times that profit in 2028, a buyer gets a normal multiple only if the goal lands.
derivedC20 against Digi's own six-year median of 16.8 on the pack basis (C17), and the goal's need for more acquisitions (C10, C14).
against this

If recurring revenue keeps rising as a share of sales, a permanently higher multiple than the hardware years is defensible, and 16.8 is a hardware-era median (C04, C22).

forwardwritten 2026-10-03
C17facthigh confidence
At $75.61 on 2026-10-02 the shares trade at 29.6 times trailing EBITDA against a six-year median of 16.8, and 5.8 times sales against 2.6.
current state · 2026-10-02written 2026-10-03
C10management claimmedium confidence
Management targets $200M of ARR and $200M of adjusted EBITDA by fiscal 2028, a goal first set in 2024 as doubling both within five years.
against this

In May 2024, three months after setting the goal, Digi cut its fiscal 2024 guide on cautious customers (S10); ARR is now said to be near $193M only after about $40M was bought (C05).

forwardwritten 2026-10-03
Priced against its rivals

The competitors its own annual report names, each confirmed against the rival's filing. Measured on company value for each $1 of sales, cheapest first:

TickerCompanycompany value for each $1 of sales
INSGInseego0.8×
LTRXLantronix2.2×
DGIIDigi International5.8×
SMTCSemtech15.7×

The middle of the other 3 is 2.2. Digi International Inc. is 2nd dearest of 4.

Rivals' figures come from a data provider, so read the spread of the group rather than any single pair.

Buyers pay more per dollar of sales than for most filed rivals, a premium Digi's higher margin and faster growth explain only in part.

Also checked and set aside: Airgain (a substitute, not the same product).

Private or foreign rivals that cannot be priced: Peplink (Pismo Labs), Teltonika Networks, ZPE Systems (Legrand), ComplianceMate, Monnit and similar food-safety sensor vendors.

Where we disagree with the market

The market believes

Digi has become a growing subscription business that deserves to be priced like one.

We believe

The subscription growth is real but half bought, and the hardware half is cyclical and may be running on early orders.

Analysts are mostly positive and expect sales to keep growing next year. The headline numbers support them: 29% sales growth and 52% recurring growth.

Our difference is in what sits under them. Two purchases supplied about half of the recurring growth, and the last time hardware buyers paused, in fiscal 2024, sales fell.

We would be wrong if recurring revenue keeps growing over 20% a year without purchases and hardware holds up through fiscal 2027.

What analysts say, and the evidence
Analysts positive
80%
of 5, 1 Oct
Four months earlier
83%
of 6, 1 Jun
The evidence under this - 6 claims
C37facthigh confidence
Analysts split 12 buy, 6 hold, 0 sell; short interest was 4.6% of float at the 2026-09-15 settlement.
current state · 2026-09-15written 2026-10-03
C19factmedium confidence
Consensus expects fiscal 2027 revenue of $578.5M, up about 9% on the fiscal 2026 guide, and adjusted EPS of $3.13, from four analysts.
current state · 2026-10-03written 2026-10-03
C06estimatemedium confidence
Roughly 18% to 21% of Q3 2026's 29% revenue growth was organic: Products & Services grew 25%, mostly organic, while most of Solutions' 41% came from Jolt.
derivedRevenue rose $31.2M. Jolt was not owned in Q3 2025 and runs near $5.5M a quarter on its $20M-plus ARR; Particle is called not material, taken at $2M to $5M. That leaves $20M to $23M organic on $107.5M.
against this

Digi publishes no organic growth figure, and calls Particle's contribution not material although it added about $20M of ARR (S03, S06), so the split rests on an inference about two acquired revenue streams.

historical · Q3 2026written 2026-10-03
C05facthigh confidence
Jolt cost $145.5M net of cash in August 2025 with over $20M of ARR, and Particle $50.4M in January 2026 with about $20M; together about $40M of the $65M rise in ARR.
historical · August 2025 to January 2026written 2026-10-03
C26inferencelow confidence
Some of fiscal 2026's growth is customers buying ahead of shortages, and those orders could fall away as they did in fiscal 2024.
derivedC25 against the fiscal 2024 to 2025 destocking (C07) and the slower Q4 guide (C09).
against this

Recurring revenue, now about 38% of sales, does not destock (C04), and data-centre demand for console servers is a separate driver (C27).

forwardwritten 2026-10-03
C07facthigh confidence
Revenue fell 4.7% in fiscal 2024 and grew only 1.5% in fiscal 2025, when Products & Services fell 2.0% as customers worked down stock bought during the shortage.
historical · fiscal 2024 and fiscal 2025written 2026-10-03
06

What could go wrong, and how we would know

The risks

  • Orders pulled forward. Customers buying early ahead of shortages could stop ordering for a year, as they did in fiscal 2024.
  • One distributor. A single distributor carries about 11% of sales, and the channel as a whole most of them.
  • Factories in Asia. Manufacturing in Thailand, Taiwan and Cambodia exposes margins to tariffs and shipping.
  • Growth through purchases. Each deal is funded by debt, and the latest price was not disclosed.
  • Insiders selling. Insiders sold 14 times and bought nothing in a year, none under a pre-set plan.
The evidence under this - 7 claims
C25management claimmedium confidence
The CEO says part of the order pickup is customers placing orders early to secure deliveries as memory and other parts run short.
against this

The CFO tied faster deal closing to a growing pipeline at every stage, not only to urgency (S05).

current state · 2026-08-05written 2026-10-03
C26inferencelow confidence
Some of fiscal 2026's growth is customers buying ahead of shortages, and those orders could fall away as they did in fiscal 2024.
derivedC25 against the fiscal 2024 to 2025 destocking (C07) and the slower Q4 guide (C09).
against this

Recurring revenue, now about 38% of sales, does not destock (C04), and data-centre demand for console servers is a separate driver (C27).

forwardwritten 2026-10-03
C07facthigh confidence
Revenue fell 4.7% in fiscal 2024 and grew only 1.5% in fiscal 2025, when Products & Services fell 2.0% as customers worked down stock bought during the shortage.
historical · fiscal 2024 and fiscal 2025written 2026-10-03
C15facthigh confidence
One distributor was 13% of fiscal 2025 revenue and 11% of the nine months to June 2026; distributors, integrators and resellers carried 60.2% of fiscal 2025 revenue.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-03
C38facthigh confidence
Digi's outsourced manufacturing sits in Thailand, Mexico, Taiwan and Cambodia, and its chips come from foundries mostly in Taiwan.
current state · 2025-09-30written 2026-10-03
C14management claimlow confidence
Digi agreed on 2026-10-01 to buy Disruptive Technologies, a Norwegian sensor maker with $15M of 2025 revenue and $4M of ARR, on its revolver, expecting $9M more EBITDA in fiscal 2028; no price was given.
against this

The figures come from a secondary summary of the call; the release body did not load and no 8-K had been filed by 2026-10-03, so the price and terms are unread.

forwardwritten 2026-10-03
C36facthigh confidence
Insiders made 14 open-market sales and no purchases in the year to October 2026, none under a trading plan; the CFO sold 100,000 shares near $69 after exercising options due to expire and kept 167,589.
historical · November 2025 to October 2026written 2026-10-03
What we still do not know
  • How much of this year's hardware sales is customers ordering early.
  • What Digi paid for Disruptive Technologies.
  • How much of the recurring revenue renews each year; Digi does not say.
  • How many health providers nationwide must run continuous temperature monitoring.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C25management claimmedium confidence
The CEO says part of the order pickup is customers placing orders early to secure deliveries as memory and other parts run short.
against this

The CFO tied faster deal closing to a growing pipeline at every stage, not only to urgency (S05).

current state · 2026-08-05written 2026-10-03
C14management claimlow confidence
Digi agreed on 2026-10-01 to buy Disruptive Technologies, a Norwegian sensor maker with $15M of 2025 revenue and $4M of ARR, on its revolver, expecting $9M more EBITDA in fiscal 2028; no price was given.
against this

The figures come from a secondary summary of the call; the release body did not load and no 8-K had been filed by 2026-10-03, so the price and terms are unread.

forwardwritten 2026-10-03
C04facthigh confidence
Annualized recurring revenue was $191M at June 30, 2026, up 52%: $60M in Products & Services (up 100%, mostly Particle) and $131M in Solutions (up 36%, mostly Jolt).
against this

Digi's own definition counts term equipment rentals, extended warranties and support contracts, and the 10-K says it is unlikely to compare with other companies' ARR (S01).

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-03
C33facthigh confidence
Indiana's health department makes continuous data loggers, reading at least every 30 minutes, mandatory wherever publicly funded vaccine is stored.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-03

What would change our view

  1. Neutral→AttractiveA cheaper price on an unchanged business

    It needs all of:

    • ○The price falls to about 18 times the past year's profit before depreciation, near Digi's own normal.about ≈$45.98 today, 39% below the last close
    • ○The hardware half is still growing from a year earlier.checked at the next results, due by 11 Nov
  2. Neutral→AttractiveThe profit goal arrives early on its own

    It needs all of:

    • ○Quarterly profit before depreciation reaches $50M, the pace of the 2028 goal.checked at the next results, due by 11 Nov
    • ○Recurring revenue reaches $230M a year.checked at the next results, due by 11 Nov
  3. Neutral→UnattractiveThe hardware half turns down again

    It needs any of:

    • ○Hardware sales fall from a year earlier.checked at the next results, due by 11 Nov
    • ○Gross margin drops below 62 cents of each sales dollar.checked at the next results, due by 11 Nov
We would also be wrong if
  • Recurring revenue, leaving out purchases, grows less than 10% in a year.
  • Debt rises above 2.5 times a year's profit before depreciation.

What is coming

  • 11 November 2026 Q4 fiscal 2026 results: Whether revenue reaches $140M and recurring revenue $193M, and whether the fiscal 2027 guide implies 8% growth or more before Disruptive Technologies.
Every dated event ahead
  • 11 November 2026 Q4 fiscal 2026 results: Whether revenue reaches $140M and recurring revenue $193M, and whether the fiscal 2027 guide implies 8% growth or more before Disruptive Technologies.
  • December 2026 Disruptive Technologies purchase closes: The undisclosed price and terms, and how much revolver debt it adds against the 3.5 times leverage covenant.
  • December 2026 Proxy statement for the 2027 annual meeting: Fiscal 2026 bonus and PSU results against goals that exclude acquisitions: the company's own measure of organic recurring revenue growth, which no release reports.
  • February 2027 Q1 fiscal 2027 results: Whether product orders hold once customers stop ordering early to secure scarce parts.
Since we wrote this
Written
3 Oct
Price the thesis read
$75.61
2 Oct
  • 5 OctThesis reviewThe long case now sits under the verdictAfter the five-name pilot, the owner asked for the long case on every thesis.
  • 4 OctThesis reviewOwner's checklist: revenue streams, cost of growth, management, catalystsThe owner's checklist found the method silent on who runs the company, what growth costs, where the money comes from and what is dated ahead; this pass fills those four blocks from the proxy and filings.
  • 3 OctThesis writtenNeutral, medium convictionReal subscription growth and the best margins among rivals, but part of the growth is bought or early and the price already assumes the 2028 goal.

Sources 24

Where this came from

Sources - 24

Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.

  1. S01primarycompany filing2025-11-21
    Item 1 products and segments, distributors and the 13% distributor, competition by class, outsourced manufacturing, Ventus concentration, ARR definition, Jolt price, headcount
    backsC01C07C15C16C22C27C38C45C46
  2. S02primarycompany release2025-11-12
    fiscal 2026 guidance as first issued: ARR up about 10%, revenue up 10% to 15%, adjusted EBITDA up 15% to 20%
    backsC08C44
  3. S03primarycompany filing2026-08-05
    segment revenue and margins, ARR by segment, Particle purchase price and contribution, distributor at 11% of nine-month revenue, debt
    backsC02C04C12C15C17C31C41C42
  4. S04primarycompany release2026-08-05
    income statement, balance sheet, cash flow, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS reconciliations, raised fiscal 2026 and Q4 guidance
    backsC02C03C04C08C09C11C12C17C19C22C24C46
  5. S05primarytranscript2026-08-05
    Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings call transcript
    data/cache/transcripts/DGII-2026Q3.json (FMP earning-call-transcript, quarter label 2026Q3, call held 2026-08-05)
    the $200M ARR and adjusted EBITDA goal for 2028, the gross margin floor, supply-chain urgency in orders, Opengear and neoclouds; questions from Stephens and Piper Sandler
    that march towards $200 million that we laid out as our long-term objective.
    backsC10C23C25C27
  6. S06primarycompany release2026-05-06
    Particle adds about $20M of ARR; guidance raised to revenue up 20% to 22%
    backsC05C08
  7. S07primarycompany filing2026-05-06
    Particle purchase accounting: $50.4M cash, $16.0M customer relationships, $11.0M technology
    backsC05
  8. S08primarycompany release2025-08-18
    $145.5M net of cash, over $20M ARR, $11M synergy target by end of calendar 2026
    backsC05
  9. S09primarycompany release2026-08-31
    $350M revolver to 2031, accordion to $480M, leverage covenant 3.0x to 3.5x
    backsC13
  10. S10primarycompany release2024-05-01
    revenue down 3%, console server and cellular volume down, the fiscal 2024 guide lowered on cautious customers, the five-year $200M goal set
    backsC10C35
  11. S11primarycompany release2026-10-01
    the announcement headline and date; the page body renders by script and did not come back as text
    Digi International Announces Intent to Acquire Disruptive Technologies to Advance SmartSense Physical-World Intelligence Platform and Enter Europe
    backsC14
  12. S12secondarynews2026-10-02
    DT revenue and ARR, funding on the revolver, close by end of 2026, $9M of added EBITDA in fiscal 2028; no purchase price
    Disruptive Technologies generated $15 million in 2025 revenue and $4 million in annual recurring revenue.
    backsC14
  13. S13primarycompany filing2026-02-26
    names Digi among solution-provider competitors with Cisco, Cradlepoint (Ericsson), Inseego, Lantronix, Peplink and Sierra Wireless (Semtech), and vertically integrated Asian rivals
    backsC29
  14. S14primarycompany filing2026-08-27
    out-of-band management sold to a Tier 1 bank, Percepxion software managing OOB and industrial IoT fleets, AI data centres as its fastest-growing OOB use
    backsC30C31
  15. S15primarycompany filing2026-03-23
    IoT modules, routers, gateways and connected services in its IoT Systems and Connectivity segment
    backsC31
  16. S16primarycompany filing2026-02-20
    5G routers and gateways with cloud management for enterprises; names Peplink, Teltonika and Cisco
    backsC31
  17. S17primaryindustry data2026-10-03
    connected devices up 14% to 21.1 billion in 2025; cellular 22% of connections, cellular connections up 16% in 2024; a 2025 forecast cut on capex deferrals
    Based on H1 2025 IoT connection data, the number of connected IoT devices is expected to grow 14% year-over-year to 21.1 billion by the end of 2025.
    backsC32
  18. S18primaryregulator2025-01-01
    continuous temperature logging every 30 minutes required where public vaccine is stored, the demand SmartSense serves in pharmacies; CDC's own toolkit pages answered 403
    Data loggers/continuous monitoring devices are mandatory for all storage units that contain publicly funded vaccines.
    backsC33
  19. S19primaryindustry data2026-10-03
    cellular devices and modules are certified before carriers accept them, and devices built on certified modules are a named category
    Manufacturers work with authorized labs to test wireless devices for compliance with defined standards.
    read, but no claim rests on it
  20. S20secondaryvendor data2026-10-03
    Research pack (FMP market tier and filed statements), frozen at content/DGII/research-pack.json
    content/DGII/research-pack.json
    last close, company value, multiples against six-year medians, price-move split, consensus, analyst split, short interest, the filed-rival cohort, three years of closes
    backsC07C17C18C19C22C24C31C35C37
  21. S21primarycompany filing2026-10-03
    14 open-market sales, none under a 10b5-1 plan, no purchases; the CFO's June sale after exercising options that expired in August
    backsC36
  22. S22primaryregulator2026-09-15
    short interest of 4.6% of float, 4.62 days to cover
    consolidated short interest for DGII at the 2026-09-15 settlement, 1,687,042 shares
    backsC37
  23. S23primarycompany filing2025-12-17
    beneficial ownership at 2025-12-08, the fiscal 2025 and 2026 cash incentive plans and their goals, the PSU design and its ARR goals, fiscal 2025 payouts
    backsC43C44
  24. S24primarycompany filing2026-10-04
    revenue, gross profit, research and development, sales and marketing, general and administrative, stock pay, capital spending, operating income and diluted shares per year; cash paid for businesses, stock issued, debt raised and repaid, and shares withheld for tax from the 10-K cash flow statements
    backsC42C46
Rendered from content/DGII/thesis.json · thesis reviewed 2026-10-03. This page explains a company; it does not say what to pay, when to buy or how much.