Samsara
Samsara puts sensors and cameras in trucks, vans and machines, then charges companies a yearly subscription for the software that tracks drivers, vehicles and sites.
The scores
Growth4/4 →
Revenue grew 44%, 33% and 30% in the last three years, all organic, with large customers rising from 2,771 to 3,605.
Business quality3/4 ↑
Installed hardware and 115% retention keep customers, and Berg ranks it second, but Motive sells the same kit and no downturn has tested it.
Financial position4/4 ↑
$1.33B of cash and investments, no debt, and positive free cash flow every quarter.
Execution record4/4 →
Revenue beat consensus eight quarters running, guides are routinely raised, and the adjusted margin went from 9% to 21% in two years.
Per share capture3/4 ↑
Diluted shares grew about 3.6% while sales per share rose 25%, but share pay is 19% of revenue and founders hold 84% of the vote.
Potential3/4 →
Half of North American commercial vehicles are unconnected and the installed base grows 11.6% a year, with $4.29B already contracted.
Risk profile3/4 →
No customer is 10% of revenue, but devices come from Taiwan-based manufacturers, founders control the vote and the Motive patent fight continues.
Valuation2/4 →
About 11 times this year's sales and 35 times FY2029 adjusted earnings that leave out share pay: consensus must arrive and margins keep rising.
Evidence quality3/4 →
Revenue, recurring revenue and cash are filed and Berg corroborates the ranking, but retention and the unconnected share are management's word.
The Verdict
We rate Samsara neutral. It sells trackers and cameras for trucks, vans and machines on multi-year subscriptions, customers rarely pull them out and keep adding products, and revenue has grown about 30% a year, so the business is strong. The price assumes about 20% growth a year for three more years and leaves out paying staff in shares, near a fifth of revenue, so it is full. The view hinges on growth staying well above that 20% while share-based pay shrinks; growth falling below it would say the price paid too much.
The long caseFleets are connecting vehicles and equipment to cut accidents, insurance and fuel; Samsara must keep winning that spending faster than the price assumes while paying staff less in shares.
The evidence under this - 7 claims
The $1M-customer figures are stated on the call and in the release, not in the 10-Q, which reports only the $100,000 count.
- The figure is stated as a target met, not a measured number, and neither the 10-K nor the 10-Q defines or reports it.
- Motive's prospectus reports core-customer retention of 110% on a lower $7,500 threshold, so the two are not directly comparable (C16).
The vendor counts about 577M shares and reports $23.7B of market value and 12.7 times sales; on the 585.6M shares outstanding it is $24.1B.
- Recurring revenue is growing 30% and every guide has been beaten, so 20% growth may prove low (C02, C08).
- On official profit, which counts share pay, the company barely earns anything yet, so the adjusted multiples flatter it (C09).
Share pay fell from 23% of revenue in Q2 FY2026's six months to about 19% over the latest four quarters, so the burden is shrinking as revenue grows.
The company
Companies that run trucks, vans, diggers or work sites usually cannot see them as they work. Samsara fits vehicle trackers, AI dash cameras, equipment tags and site cameras, all built by contract manufacturers in Asia and North America.
The data flows to one online system where managers coach drivers, plan maintenance, prove safety to insurers and file driving-hours logs. Buyers range from delivery fleets to utilities and builders; more than 12,000 customers pay at least $25,000 a year.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
The 10-Q records a one-time $12.4M tariff refund in FY2027, so some cost pressure has reversed.
How it makes money
Customers sign contracts, usually for several years, and pay a yearly fee per device and per software product; the hardware comes bundled into that fee. Almost all revenue is subscriptions.
That makes the money predictable: $4.29B is already signed but not yet earned, $1.84B of it due within a year. No single customer is 10% of revenue, and the company holds $1.33B of cash with no debt.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
Where the money comes from, stream by stream
| Stream | Share of sales (Q2 FY2027) | How it earns it |
|---|---|---|
| Subscriptions | 98.3% | Multi-year subscriptions to the cloud applications, sold with the gateways, dash cams and sensors, recognised over the term. |
| Other: replacement devices and services | 1.7% | Replacement gateways, sensors and cameras, shipping and professional services, recognised when delivered. |
Who runs it
Sanjit Biswas has run Samsara since he co-founded it in 2015 with John Bicket, its technology chief; the pair had already built and sold Meraki to Cisco. Dominic Phillips has run finance since 2019. Insiders own about a third of the company and, through ten-vote shares, about three-quarters of the vote, so the founders decide. Most of the bonus rides on new recurring revenue and the rest on cash; shares vest with time, so nothing rewards profit per share.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
The founders sell every quarter under plans adopted in September 2025 (C30), so the economic stake is falling while Class B keeps the vote.
- No measure pays on official profit, per-share results or dilution, so share pay of about a fifth of revenue (C10) costs the plan nothing.
- The free cash flow target is re-forecast each quarter by the chief executive and finance chief before the committee approves it.
Why it wins, and who could beat it
Why customers come back
Once a fleet has Samsara boxes and cameras in every vehicle, leaving means pulling them all out and retraining drivers. So customers mostly stay and add products: 96% of those paying over $100,000 use at least two.
Management says existing core customers spend about 15% more each year, and large customers rose from 59% to 63% of recurring revenue in a year. An outside research firm, Berg Insight, ranks its North American installed base second, behind Geotab.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
The $1M-customer figures are stated on the call and in the release, not in the 10-Q, which reports only the $100,000 count.
- The figure is stated as a target met, not a measured number, and neither the 10-K nor the 10-Q defines or reports it.
- Motive's prospectus reports core-customer retention of 110% on a lower $7,500 threshold, so the two are not directly comparable (C16).
Berg counts units, not dollars, and the top five hold half of them, so Samsara is a scale player but not the largest.
Both are vendors' case studies or internal studies; no insurer or regulator publishes the saving.
The threat
The closest rival is Motive, a private company selling much the same cameras and software. Its own filing showed slower growth of 22%, a loss of $139M over nine months and lower retention. Motive shelved its plan to list shares in September 2026, and an arbitrator ruled against it on fraud and false advertising, though its patent case against Samsara goes to trial in 2027.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
Motive's large customers expanded 126% a year, above Samsara's stated 115% for its core tier, so Motive is winning expansion in its own top accounts.
The rivals: VZ, AIOT, KARO, and 3 more that are private, in-house or listed abroad.
Who else does this, rival by rival
| Ticker | Rival | How far along | Priced against it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Private | Motive TechnologiesPriced against it: Private | On sale | Private |
| Private | GeotabPriced against it: Private | On sale | Private |
| Private | Lytx and NetradynePriced against it: Private | On sale | Private |
| VZ | Verizon ConnectPriced against it: Shown, not counted | On sale | Shown, not counted |
| AIOT · KARO | Powerfleet and KaroooooPriced against it: Yes | On sale | Yes |
How big it could get
How big this could get
Berg Insight counts about 19.2M fleet tracking systems in North American vehicles at the end of 2024, growing 11.6% a year to an expected 33.2M by 2029.
Motive's filing puts the global market near $60B a year. Samsara's $2.125B of recurring revenue is a small slice of that, so the market is not what limits growth; winning share from older vendors is.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
Berg counts units, not dollars, and the top five hold half of them, so Samsara is a scale player but not the largest.
It is a seller's sizing on its own list price per vehicle, which no buyer pays across the whole fleet.
Where the growth is coming from, business by business
Where the growth is coming from
| Business | Share of revenue | Growth: last quarter | Last half-year | Last year | Share in 3 years at its half-year rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Subscription and Circulation | 98% | +30.2% | +30.6% | +29.9% | 99% |
| Product and Service, Other | 2% | +14.3% | +11.2% | +10.5% | 1% |
| Whole company | 100% | +29.9% | +30.2% | +29.5% | 100% |
On the filed split through 2026-08-01, if each business keeps its last half-year's growth, the company grows about 30% next year and 30% in year 3, against 29.5% over the last twelve months. A scenario, not a forecast: no business holds its rate.
The results
The numbers
Sales grew 30% over the twelve months to Aug 2026, about the same pace as the 30% in the year to Jan 2026.
Operating margin is 1.0%, up from −34% in the year to Feb 2024.
Running costs take 75¢ of each sales dollar, down from 154¢ in the year to Jan 2022.
Shareholders' money earned 6.4% a year, up from −156% in the year to Jan 2022.
It turned 14% of sales into free cash, $255M over the last twelve months.
Yearly sales growth has ranged from +30% to +71% over the last 5 years.
The share count rose 113% in 4.5 years, and pay in shares costs 18% of sales.
All the numbers
Filed figures from the company's 10-K and 10-Q, read 2026-10-04. Fiscal years end in January.
| Jan 2022 | Jan 2023 | Feb 2024 | Feb 2025 | Jan 2026 | 12 mo to Aug 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Size and growth | ||||||
| Sales | $428M | $653M | $937M | $1.25B | $1.62B | $1.85B |
| Sales growth | +71% | +52% | +44% | +33% | +30% | +30% |
| Profit | ||||||
| Gross margin | 71% | 72% | 74% | 76% | 77% | 76% |
| Operating margin | −83% | −40% | −34% | −15% | −3.2% | 1.0% |
| Net margin | −83% | −38% | −31% | −12% | −0.6% | 4.9% |
| What growth costs, per sales dollar | ||||||
| Research and development | 48% | 29% | 28% | 24% | 21% | 20% |
| Sales and marketing | 68% | 57% | 52% | 48% | 42% | 41% |
| General and admin | 37% | 26% | 21% | 19% | 16% | 14% |
| Pay in shares | 53% | 27% | 25% | 22% | 19% | 18% |
| Capital spending | 4.5% | 5.1% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.8% |
| Cash | ||||||
| Cash from operations | −$171M | −$103M | −$11.8M | $132M | $236M | $288M |
| Free cash flow | −$191M | −$136M | −$22.8M | $111M | $207M | $255M |
| Balance sheet | ||||||
| Cash and short-term investments | $921M | $201M | $136M | $228M | $319M | $291M |
| Returns and shares | ||||||
| Return on capital | - | - | - | - | - | 1.2% |
| Shares (diluted) | 278M | 514M | 535M | 556M | 573M | 590M |
What growth costs
Growth keeps making Samsara cheaper to run: research, selling, office costs and share pay all rise more slowly than sales, so each new sale costs less to win. Selling is still the biggest cost and has stopped falling much, and the devices it ships cost more as memory prices climb.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
- Sales and marketing still takes about 41 cents of each sales dollar and fell less than a cent in the latest four quarters.
- Management expects free cash flow margin about a point lower in FY2027 from buying more devices and rising component costs (C12), a cost that grows with units shipped.
The official operating margin moved from minus 15% to about 1% over the same span; the gap is share pay.
Management says the cost is temporary and will reach gross margin only slowly as devices are amortised; it was absorbed after the post-pandemic shortage.
The last report (3 Sep)
Quarter ended August 2026, filed figures.
In Q2 FY2027, the three months to August 1, 2026, revenue was $508.4M, up 30%, and recurring revenue grew 30% to $2.125B. Management raised its forecast for the year to 26% growth, from 21% to 22% in March.
Profit depends on the measure. On management's own measure the business kept 21 cents of each dollar; officially it kept 1 cent, because share-based pay of $101.1M is left out of the first. Management also expects device and memory costs to cut this year's cash margin by about a point.
What it did to the thesisIt confirmed the growth case: another quarter of fast growth and a higher forecast for the year. It also confirmed the cost case, with official profit near nil and a lower cash margin ahead, so the view stays Neutral.
The quarter in detail
Sales growth from the previous quarter, filed figures.
Earnings per share $0.20 against $0.16 expected; $0.03 as filed, the gap being what the company adds back.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
- The Q3 guide of 24% is below Q2's 30%, though management calls its guide de-risked for downside scenarios.
- The adjusted margin leaves out share pay, which was about 20% of Q2 revenue (C10).
Share pay fell from 23% of revenue in Q2 FY2026's six months to about 19% over the latest four quarters, so the burden is shrinking as revenue grows.
Management says the cost is temporary and will reach gross margin only slowly as devices are amortised; it was absorbed after the post-pandemic shortage.
What management did with the money
Insiders in 2026Q3: 8 purchases and 141 sales, from their Form 4 filings.
The price, and where we disagree
In short. Full. The price pays for the business growing about 20% a year for three more years, and leaves out the cost of paying staff in shares.
The shares fell 51% between December 2025 and February 2026 in a sell-off across software stocks, with no bad news from Samsara. Two strong reports since have taken them back to about $41.
Motive's withdrawn listing removes a well-funded rival's fundraising for now. The next test is Q3 FY2027 results, expected around December 3; management's forecast implies 24% growth, but its recent forecasts of 24% have become 30%.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
The vendor's snapshot counts 20 opinions against 25 in its dated series.
Management says Q2 benefited from better-than-usual timing of bookings and expects normal timing in the second half.
How we read the multiple
Share-based pay near 19% of revenue is why official profit is almost nil. Growth must continue and that cost must shrink for the price to look cheap.
- The company is worth about $23.0B, net of its cash.
- That is about 11 times the revenue management expects this year.
- Analysts expect $2.929B of revenue in FY2029, which needs about 20% growth a year after this year.
- Even then, buyers pay 35 times FY2029's expected profit per share, a profit that leaves out share-based pay.
Against its own history. Cheaper than its own normal, because the price fell while sales kept rising; the business has improved faster than the price.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
The vendor counts about 577M shares and reports $23.7B of market value and 12.7 times sales; on the 585.6M shares outstanding it is $24.1B.
FY2029 rests on five estimates and adjusted earnings leave out share pay of about 19% of revenue.
- Recurring revenue is growing 30% and every guide has been beaten, so 20% growth may prove low (C02, C08).
- On official profit, which counts share pay, the company barely earns anything yet, so the adjusted multiples flatter it (C09).
Share pay fell from 23% of revenue in Q2 FY2026's six months to about 19% over the latest four quarters, so the burden is shrinking as revenue grows.
Priced against its rivals
The competitors its own annual report names, each confirmed against the rival's filing. Measured on price for each $1 of net worth, cheapest first:
| Ticker | Company | price for each $1 of net worth |
|---|---|---|
| AIOT | Powerfleet | 0.8× |
| KARO | Karooooo | 8.6× |
| IOT | Samsara | 15.0× |
| VZ | Verizon Communications not in the median | 1.8× |
The middle of the other 2 is 4.7. Verizon Communications Inc. competes with it in one product line inside a much bigger company, so its price says little about this business and it is not counted in the middle. Samsara Inc. is dearest of 3.
Rivals' figures come from a data provider, so read the spread of the group rather than any single pair.
No fair comparison exists: the rivals that matter are private, and the listed ones are smaller or report too little.
Private or foreign rivals that cannot be priced: Motive Technologies, Geotab, Lytx and Netradyne, Platform Science, Omnitracs, Spireon, ORBCOMM, CalAmp, TrackUnit, Nauto, Zonar, SkyBitz, Masternaut, Webfleet, Michelin.
Where we disagree with the market
Most analysts see a durable 30% grower; worried investors fear AI will make software cheap and device costs will squeeze cash.
Growth will probably beat the 20% the price assumes, but share-based pay near 19% of revenue keeps true profit thin.
Samsara has beaten revenue estimates eight quarters running, by 3% to 5%, so the forecasts look cautious. What both sides skip is the profit that adjusted figures leave out.
The case against us is strong: if growth stays near 30% and share-based pay falls toward 15% of revenue, today's price will look cheap.
What analysts say, and the evidence
The evidence under this - 6 claims
- Recurring revenue is growing 30% and every guide has been beaten, so 20% growth may prove low (C02, C08).
- On official profit, which counts share pay, the company barely earns anything yet, so the adjusted multiples flatter it (C09).
The vendor's snapshot counts 20 opinions against 25 in its dated series.
Management says Q2 benefited from better-than-usual timing of bookings and expects normal timing in the second half.
Share pay fell from 23% of revenue in Q2 FY2026's six months to about 19% over the latest four quarters, so the burden is shrinking as revenue grows.
What could go wrong, and how we would know
The risks
- Growth slows below 20%. The price assumes about 20% a year to FY2029; slower growth leaves it paying too much.
- Motive fights back. A rival with the same product could cut prices, and its patent case against Samsara goes to trial in August 2027.
- Device costs rise. Memory and computing chips are getting dearer, and devices are bundled into the fee, so Samsara absorbs the cost.
- Factories in Taiwan's orbit. Devices are built by Taiwan-based manufacturers, so trade disputes or tariffs could delay or raise the cost of supply.
- Founders control the vote. A special share class gives its holders about 84% of the votes, so outside shareholders cannot change pay or strategy.
- Share-based pay is heavy. Stock given to staff costs about 19% of revenue and is left out of the profit figures management stresses.
The evidence under this - 7 claims
- Recurring revenue is growing 30% and every guide has been beaten, so 20% growth may prove low (C02, C08).
- On official profit, which counts share pay, the company barely earns anything yet, so the adjusted multiples flatter it (C09).
Motive's large customers expanded 126% a year, above Samsara's stated 115% for its core tier, so Motive is winning expansion in its own top accounts.
Management says the cost is temporary and will reach gross margin only slowly as devices are amortised; it was absorbed after the post-pandemic shortage.
The 10-Q records a one-time $12.4M tariff refund in FY2027, so some cost pressure has reversed.
Share pay fell from 23% of revenue in Q2 FY2026's six months to about 19% over the latest four quarters, so the burden is shrinking as revenue grows.
What we still do not know
- Whether existing customers really spend 15% more each year; only management reports the figure, and only as an approximate target.
- How many North American vehicles are still unconnected; the claim that half are comes from management, not an outside count.
- How much customers truly save; the accident-cost figures come from the sellers themselves.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
- The figure is stated as a target met, not a measured number, and neither the 10-K nor the 10-Q defines or reports it.
- Motive's prospectus reports core-customer retention of 110% on a lower $7,500 threshold, so the two are not directly comparable (C16).
Berg Insight's 19.2M connected units against its own growth to 33.2M by 2029 implies a large unconnected pool, but neither source states the 50% figure (C18).
Both are vendors' case studies or internal studies; no insurer or regulator publishes the saving.
It is a seller's sizing on its own list price per vehicle, which no buyer pays across the whole fleet.
What would change our view
- Neutral→AttractiveGrowth holds and the multiple comes in
It needs all of:
- ○The company's value falls to 7 times its past year's sales.checked daily
- ○Recurring revenue keeps growing at least 25% a year.checked at the next results, due by 3 Dec
- Neutral→UnattractiveGrowth or retention breaks
It needs any of:
- ○Recurring revenue growth falls below 20% a year.checked at the next results, due by 3 Dec
- ○Existing core customers' yearly spending growth falls below 10%.checked at the next results, due by 3 Dec
We would also be wrong if
- Official gross margin falls below 72% for two quarters in a row.
- Large customers' share of recurring revenue falls from a year earlier.
What is coming
- 3 December 2026 Q3 FY2027 results: Recurring revenue growth against 28% and revenue against the $514M to $516M guide; whether the guide-to-print gap of recent quarters holds.
Every dated event ahead
- 3 December 2026 Q3 FY2027 results: Recurring revenue growth against 28% and revenue against the $514M to $516M guide; whether the guide-to-print gap of recent quarters holds.
- March 2027 Q4 FY2027 results and the FY2028 outlook: Whether FY2028 is guided near the roughly 20% growth the price assumes, and whether device and memory costs cut free cash flow margin as warned.
- June 2027 2027 proxy statement: Whether pay starts rewarding per-share results or dilution, and how far the founders' stake has fallen under their selling plans.
Since we wrote this
- 5 OctThesis reviewThe long case now sits under the verdictAfter the five-name pilot, the owner asked for the long case on every thesis.
- 4 OctThesis writtenNeutral, medium convictionFirst thesis: a durable 30% grower at a price that already pays for consensus growth, with share pay keeping true earnings thin.
- 4 OctThesis reviewOwner's checklist: revenue streams, cost of growth, management, catalystsThe owner's checklist found the method silent on who runs the company, what growth costs, where the money comes from and what is dated ahead; this pass fills those four blocks from the proxy and filings.
Sources 13
Sources - 13
Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.
- S01primarycompany filing2026-03-16Item 1 platform and applications, customer tiers, multi-product adoption, international share, the named competitors, contract manufacturing in Taiwan, memory-cost risk, share classes and votes, headcount, the expected decline in growth ratebacksC01C03C05C12C14C15C24C31C33C34C35C43C45
- S02primarycompany filing2026-09-08income statement, balance sheet, ARR and $100,000 customers, remaining performance obligations, concentration, connected device costs, the Motive arbitration award, the tariff refund, share countsbacksC01C02C04C08C09C11C12C13C31C32C34C39C43C45
- S03primarycompany release2026-09-03ARR and net new ARR, GAAP and non-GAAP margins, share-pay reconciliation, free cash flow, the Q3 and raised FY2027 guidancebacksC02C03C07C09C10C11C23C36
- S04primarytranscript2026-09-03Samsara Q2 FY2027 earnings call (FMP transcript)net retention near 115%, $100,000 and $1M customer ARR, multi-product shares, emerging-product share of new contract value, unconnected vehicles, free cash flow and device-cost commentary, the guide philosophy
96% of $100,000-plus ARR customers subscribed to 2 or more products, up from 95% in Q2 last year and 72% subscribed to 3 or more products, up from 68% last year ... this strong multiproduct adoption helped us achieve our target dollar-based net retention rate of approximately 115% for core customers.
backsC04C05C06C07C12C14C19C23C24C38 - S05primarycompany release2026-03-05FY2026 revenue, margins, adjusted free cash flow and the original FY2027 and Q1 FY2027 guidancebacksC03C07C08C10C36
- S06primarycompany filing2025-12-23Motive Technologies Form S-1 registration statement Motive TechnologiesMotive's revenue, losses, customer tiers and net dollar retention, its market sizing, its competitor list naming Samsara, and the litigation with SamsarabacksC16C20C32C35
- S07primarycompany filing2026-09-10Motive Technologies application for withdrawal of its Form S-1 Motive Technologiesthe decision not to proceed with the offeringbacksC17
- S08primarycompany filing2026-06-15its competitor list naming Samsara and its own description as a connected-fleet providerbacksC21
- S09primarycompany filing2026-06-09Cartrack subscribers, subscription revenue growth and data volumebacksC22
- S10secondaryindustry data2025-11-17the North American installed base, its growth rate to 2029, the share held by the top five and the ranking with Geotab first and Samsara second; berginsight.com serves the report page through a script, so its own release could not be read
The total number of active fleet management systems deployed in commercial vehicle fleets in North America was around 19.2 million by the end of 2024. With a CAGR of 11.6 per cent, this number is expected to reach 33.2 million units by 2029.
backsC18 - S11primarycompany filing2026-10-04Form 4 filings read by insider_fetch.py, October 2025 to October 2026each open-market sale with its Rule 10b5-1 flag and plan datebacksC30
- S13secondaryvendor data2026-10-04Research pack (FMP market tier, FINRA short interest), frozen at content/IOT/research-pack.jsonprice history, earnings surprises, analyst estimates and rating series, short interest, headcount series and the price-move decompositionbacksC08C26C28C29C33
- S14primarycompany filing2026-06-01directors and executive officers with tenure and biographies, beneficial ownership and voting power as of April 15, 2026, the FY2026 bonus metrics and payout, the RSU grants, related-person transactionsbacksC40C41C42