FTAI Aviation
חברה שמשפצת מנועים של מטוסי 737 ו-A320 ישנים: היא מחזיקה מאגר של חלקי מנוע משופצים ומחליפה אותם במנוע של חברת התעופה תוך ימים ספורים.
הציון שלנוניטרלית ביטחון בינוני
הציונים
ציונים · 1-4
צמיחה3/4 →
ארבע שנים של צמיחה מעל 40%, אבל ההכנסות התרכזו בשני לקוחות שאחראים למחציתן, וחלק מהצמיחה הגיע מרכישה.
איכות העסק3/4 →
ללא הגנה: StandardAero משקיעה בקו CFM56 בדאלאס, וחברות התעופה הגדולות ביותר מפעילות בתי מלאכה למנועים בעצמן.
איתנות פיננסית2/4 →
החוב ניתן לשירות, אבל יש לה 1.0 מיליארד דולר לפירעון במאי 2028, שישה רבעונים של תזרים שלילי מפעילות שוטפת, והבטחה לרכישה חוזרת של 500 מיליון דולר מקופה של 337 מיליון דולר.
יכולת ביצוע2/4 ↓
העלאת התחזית בפברואר ל-1.625 מיליארד דולר בוטלה במלואה ביולי, בלי התראה, והחברה פספסה את הערכת האנליסטים בשבעה מתוך שמונה דוחות.
ערך לבעלי המניות3/4 →
מספר המניות המדולל עלה ב-0.9%, אין אג״ח להמרה, ורכישה חוזרת של 500 מיליון דולר אושרה אך טרם בוצעה; Strategic Capital עדיין מעבירה את הרווחיות מההחכרות לשותפים מוגבלים.
פוטנציאל2/4 ↑
הזמנה חתומה של 1.465 מיליארד דולר מטה את הכף לדירוג Material, אבל Mod-1 מעולם לא נמסר, ושלושה תהליכי הגדלת ייצור בלתי תלויים צריכים להצליח יחד.
רמת סיכון2/4 ↓
יותר מריכוזיות אחת: שני לקוחות שאחראים למחצית מההכנסות, פלטפורמת מנועים אחת, ומסירה ראשונה של Mod-1 שהלקוח צריך לאשר.
תמחור2/4 ↑
במכפיל של כ-25 על הרווח התפעולי של השנה האחרונה, שלא גדל וחלקו רווחים חד-פעמיים, גשר הרווח ל-2027 צריך להתממש כמעט במלואו.
חוזק הראיות3/4 →
כל הנתונים של השנה האחרונה מופיעים בדוחות וניתנים לבדיקה חוזרת, אבל גשר הרווח ל-2027 ונתוני נתח השוק מבוססים על דברי ההנהלה בלבד.
ההימור · שנתיים עד שלוש שנים
הימור בטוח, פוטנציאל מוגבל1.6×
אם ההימור מצליח: 1.6× · אם נכשל: נשארים עם כ-100%.
השורה התחתונה
הציון שלנו: ניטרלית. עסק המנועים של FTAI משפץ מנועים של מטוסי נוסעים ותיקים וצומח מהר, אבל החברה סביבו הפסיקה לצמוח: הרווח של הקבוצה לא השתנה, כי רווחי ההחכרה נמכרו לשותפויות ועסק החשמל החדש עוד לא מרוויח. לכן העסק בינוני. המחיר מלא, לא זול: הוא כבר מגלם את הבטחת ההנהלה שהרווח יוכפל בערך בשנה הבאה, כך שאם ההבטחה לא תתקיים, המניה תיפגע. כהימור היא דפנסיבית: תיקון המנועים וההחכרה יכולים להצדיק לבדם את המחיר של היום, ולכן אם טורבינות החשמל יצליחו המניה תעלה בכמחצית, ואם ייכשלו, יאבד מעט.
הטיעון לטווח הארוךמרכזי נתונים לא יכולים לחכות שנים לרשת החשמל או לטורבינה חדשה, ולכן הם בונים תחנות כוח משלהם על גז, ומנוע סילון משופץ זמין מיד.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 8 טענות
C23עובדהhigh confidence
Aerospace Products adjusted EBITDA was $249.7 million in the June 2026 quarter, up 51.5% year on year, on segment revenue of $875.0 million, up 78%, at a 28.5% margin against 34.7% for FY2025.
C22אומדןhigh confidence
Trailing twelve-month adjusted EBITDA to June 2026 is about $1,191.5 million against $1,190.9 million for FY2025 - unchanged - while trailing revenue rose to $3,112.9 million from $2,142.9 million a year earlier, up 45.3%.
derivedFY2025 adjusted EBITDA of $1,190,922 thousand from the February 2026 results release, plus first-half 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $617,021 thousand, less first-half 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $616,363 thousand, both from the June-quarter release. Revenue is the sum of the four filed quarterly totals to June 2026 and the four to June 2025.
against this
- Adjusted EBITDA is management's own definition and includes a pro-rata share of unconsolidated entities, so the trailing figure mixes consolidated and equity-accounted profit.
- The flatness is by design rather than by failure: leasing earnings were deliberately sold into third-party partnerships, and management argues the fee stream replacing them arrives from the December quarter.
- Net income attributable to shareholders was flat too over the same span, which the same explanation covers, so the finding does not separate a mix shift from a deterioration on its own.
C17עובדהhigh confidence
The 2025 Partnership completed a $2.0 billion equity fundraise in October 2025 and agreed to buy 45 on-lease narrowbody aircraft from FTAI for an estimated net $549 million, extended on 29 June 2026 to 60 aircraft for approximately $700 million in aggregate and all sold by 30 June 2026; FTAI carries a 19% equity-method interest in it at $365.5 million and its exchange business exclusively supplies the partnership's replacement engines and modules for its life.
C24עובדהhigh confidence
FTAI cut its 2026 Aviation Leasing adjusted EBITDA guidance from $575 million to $475 million on 29 July 2026, five months after raising total 2026 business-segment guidance from $1.525 billion to $1.625 billion.
C36אומדןhigh confidence
At $175.06 on 25 September 2026 the enterprise value is about $21.1 billion: about 25 times the vendor's trailing operating profit - FTAI tags no operating-income subtotal, so that line is the vendor's - about 18 times trailing adjusted EBITDA, about 9 times the 2027 business-segment guidance, and about 38 times the four filed quarterly diluted earnings figures.
derivedEnterprise value of $21,074.3 million and EV/EBIT of 25.3 from the frozen research pack; the pack's enterprise value over trailing adjusted EBITDA of about $1,191.5 million (C22) and over the $2.3 billion 2027 guidance (C25); the earnings multiple is $175.06 over $4.60, the sum of the filed diluted figures for the September and December 2025 and March and June 2026 quarters.
against this
- Enterprise value adds gross debt to market value, and the $337.2 million of cash netted against it is working cash in a business that has consumed cash in operations for six straight quarters - and is now also the cash named to fund a $500 million buyback.
- The 2027 guidance is a sum of segment figures before Corporate & Other, interest and depreciation, so ten times it is not a company multiple and understates what is being paid.
- Trailing earnings carry $245.1 million of first-half gains the cash flow reverses out, so the earnings multiple is struck on a profit whose composition is unusual.
- The operating-profit line is the vendor's construction, because the filer presents no operating income subtotal; the multiple on it cannot be reconciled to a filed figure.
- 2026-09-27editedre-struck at the 25 September 2026 close in the 27 September review; the shares fell 8.2% in the week with no filing and no stated cause
C25טענת ההנהלהlow confidence
Management guides 2027 business-segment adjusted EBITDA of $2.3 billion, comprising $1.4 billion from Aerospace Products, $450 million from Aviation Leasing and $450 million from Power.
against this
- It is a sum of segment figures: it excludes Corporate & Other, which was negative $46.5 million in the June quarter alone, and it excludes about $265 million a year of interest and preferred dividends and about $268 million of depreciation and amortisation.
- It requires roughly a doubling of trailing adjusted EBITDA in eighteen months, of which $450 million comes from a product that has never been delivered.
- The same management raised 2026 guidance in February and took the raise back in July.
C26טענת ההנהלהlow confidence
The CEO says the $450 million of 2027 Power EBITDA is the bottom of a $450-750 million range and does not assume 100 units - materially less than the 100-unit assumption.
against this
- The February 2026 results release stated planned production of 100 units in 2027, so the number underlying the guidance has moved down while the headline production target has not.
- Management would not disclose the per-megawatt economics on the call, calling them commercially sensitive, so the range cannot be checked against a unit price.
- No Mod-1 has been delivered; the first delivery was targeted for the fourth quarter of 2026 when this was written, and the 29 October 2026 release says first deliveries come next year (C78) and the business is starting from zero.
- 2026-10-29editedcounter-evidence updated: the Q3 2026 release moves the first Mod-1 delivery from the fourth quarter of 2026 to 2027 (C78)
C16עובדהmedium confidence
J&F Power Systems, FTAI's joint venture with Jereh Group, signed a five-year master supply agreement with an unnamed leading international cloud service provider and an initial purchase order valued at $1.465 billion, for deliveries in batches through November 2027, with an advance payment at signing, milestone progress payments, and downward performance adjustments capped at 10% of equipment value.
against this
- No Form 8-K was filed for it: the only 8-K between 29 May and 31 August 2026 is the June-quarter results release, so the only account of the terms is the company's own press release.
- The counterparty is not named, so its credit cannot be checked, and the contracting party is the joint venture rather than FTAI.
- No Mod-1 has ever been delivered to a customer; the first was targeted for the fourth quarter of 2026 when this was written, and the 29 October 2026 release says first deliveries come next year (C78).
- 2026-10-29editedcounter-evidence updated: the Q3 2026 release moves the first Mod-1 delivery from the fourth quarter of 2026 to 2027 (C78)
החברה
מנוע של מטוס נוסעים צריך שיפוץ כללי גדול כל כמה שנים. בבית מלאכה שמאושר על ידי יצרן המנוע, המנוע יוצא מהמטוס למשך חודשים ומורכב מחדש עם חלקים חדשים.
FTAI מוכרת את הקיצור. היא קונה מנועי CFM56 ו-V2500 משומשים, אלה שבמטוסי 737NG ו-A320ceo, ומחזיקה מאגר של חלקי מנוע משופצים. חברת התעופה מחליפה מנוע, משלמת לפי מספר קבוע של טיסות, והמטוס חוזר לשירות תוך ימים.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 2 טענות
C04הסקהmedium confidence
The alternative an airline gives up is a full performance restoration at an OEM-authorised shop, which grounds the engine for months and rebuilds it with new original-equipment parts; FTAI is selling remaining flight cycles rather than shop labour.
derivedFTAI's own description of the exchange model in Note 1 of the FY2025 10-K, StandardAero's description of scheduled and unscheduled engine maintenance, repair and overhaul as what it sells, and the CEO's 6,000-cycle versus 10,000-cycle price arithmetic on the June 2026 call.
against this
- An exchange is not always cheaper: management's own arithmetic prices a full 10,000-cycle build at roughly $12 million, which is shop-visit money, so the saving is in downtime and in cycle-matching rather than in headline price.
- Large airlines with in-house engine shops can and do keep the work; management's pitch is that they should stop, which is an argument it is still making rather than one it has won.
- StandardAero's own filing describes on-wing and field service support as part of what it sells, so the incumbent alternative is not only a months-long shop visit.
C01עובדהhigh confidence
FTAI is an independent engine maintenance platform focused on the CFM56-5B, CFM56-7B and V2500 engines that power the 737NG and A320ceo, selling or leasing rebuilt engines and modules through a proprietary Maintenance, Repair and Exchange model.
ממה היא מרוויחה
עסק המנועים הניב 875.0 מיליון דולר מתוך 953.1 מיליון דולר של סך ההכנסות ברבעון שהסתיים ביוני. עסק שני החכיר מטוסים שלמים, אבל רובם נמכרו לשותפות ש-FTAI מנהלת, והיא קונה כעת מ-FTAI את מנועי ההחלפה שלה. העסק השלישי, Power, הופך את אותו מנוע למחולל חשמל למרכזי נתונים, ועוד לא מסר אף אחד.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 5 טענות
C23עובדהhigh confidence
Aerospace Products adjusted EBITDA was $249.7 million in the June 2026 quarter, up 51.5% year on year, on segment revenue of $875.0 million, up 78%, at a 28.5% margin against 34.7% for FY2025.
C21עובדהhigh confidence
FTAI reported June-quarter revenue of $953.1 million, up 40.9% year on year, net income attributable to shareholders of $117.6 million and diluted earnings per share of $1.13 against $1.57 a year earlier.
C17עובדהhigh confidence
The 2025 Partnership completed a $2.0 billion equity fundraise in October 2025 and agreed to buy 45 on-lease narrowbody aircraft from FTAI for an estimated net $549 million, extended on 29 June 2026 to 60 aircraft for approximately $700 million in aggregate and all sold by 30 June 2026; FTAI carries a 19% equity-method interest in it at $365.5 million and its exchange business exclusively supplies the partnership's replacement engines and modules for its life.
C18טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
The CFO says the first Strategic Capital vehicle holds approximately 300 aircraft, so about 600 engines, and that Strategic Capital should be about 20% of Aerospace Products revenue going forward.
against this
- Both figures are related-party: the vehicle is FTAI's own, so a fifth of Aerospace Products demand is bought by an entity FTAI is general partner of, and neither the 10-Q nor the 10-K discloses the pricing of that supply.
- The 300 aircraft are described as closed or under letter of intent, not all closed, and management says closings shift between quarters.
- The CFO declined to hold Strategic Capital work to the 40% margin discussed earlier in the year, which means the captive volume is not automatically the profitable volume.
C16עובדהmedium confidence
J&F Power Systems, FTAI's joint venture with Jereh Group, signed a five-year master supply agreement with an unnamed leading international cloud service provider and an initial purchase order valued at $1.465 billion, for deliveries in batches through November 2027, with an advance payment at signing, milestone progress payments, and downward performance adjustments capped at 10% of equipment value.
against this
- No Form 8-K was filed for it: the only 8-K between 29 May and 31 August 2026 is the June-quarter results release, so the only account of the terms is the company's own press release.
- The counterparty is not named, so its credit cannot be checked, and the contracting party is the joint venture rather than FTAI.
- No Mod-1 has ever been delivered to a customer; the first was targeted for the fourth quarter of 2026 when this was written, and the 29 October 2026 release says first deliveries come next year (C78).
- 2026-10-29editedcounter-evidence updated: the Q3 2026 release moves the first Mod-1 delivery from the fourth quarter of 2026 to 2027 (C78)
פירוט מקורות ההכנסה
| מקור | משקל במכירות (הרבעון השני של 2026) | איך |
|---|---|---|
| מוצרי תעופה | 72.6% | מנועי CFM56 ו-V2500 משופצים, מודולים וחלקים משומשים שנמכרים במכירה מלאה, וגם חוזי ניהול מנועים שמחליפים מנוע לפי דרישה. |
| הכנסות מחוזי MRE | 19.2% | מנועים ומודולים כשירים לשירות שנמכרים ל-2025 Partnership, השותפות שרכשה את המטוסים המוחכרים של FTAI, ומנועים שחוקים שמוחלפים מולה. |
| הכנסות מהחכרה | 2.9% | דמי שכירות על המטוסים והמנועים ש-FTAI עדיין מחזיקה ומחכירה לחברות תעופה. |
| הכנסות מתחזוקה | 2.7% | יתרות תחזוקה שהשוכרים הפקידו ושאין ציפייה שהחברה תחזיר. |
| מכירת נכסים ואחר | 2.6% | מטוסים ומנועים שנמכרו מצי ההחכרה, ודמי שירות מ-2025 Partnership. |
ההנהלה
ג'וזף אדמס עומד בראש FTAI מאז 2015, תחילה כעובד של מנהלת הקרנות Fortress ומאז 2024 כעובד של החברה עצמה. ניקולס מקאליז מונה לסמנכ״ל הכספים במרץ 2026. בעלי העניין מחזיקים קצת יותר מ-1% מהחברה. הבונוס שלהם נקבע בעיקר לפי מדד רווח שמתעלם מריבית ומזומנים: בשנה שעברה הוא שולם במלואו, והעסק השתמש ביותר מזומנים ממה שהכניס.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 3 טענות
C70עובדהhigh confidence
Joseph P. Adams, Jr. has been chief executive and a director since May 2015 and chairman since May 2016, and was a Fortress managing director until the May 2024 internalization; Nicholas McAleese, who joined in 2022, became chief financial officer in March 2026 after Eun (Angela) Nam stepped down on 6 March; David Moreno became President and Stacy Kuperus chief operating officer in February 2026.
C71עובדהhigh confidence
As of 1 April 2026 the 12 directors and executive officers as a group owned 1,385,465 shares, 1.35%; the largest insider holdings were director Martin Tuchman's 657,877 and Adams's 505,837; Capital International Investors (13.51%), Capital World Investors (12.43%), Vanguard (10.10%) and FMR (5.25%) were the holders above 5%. Moreno and Tuchman invested $2.0M and $7.0M personally in the 2025 Partnership in 2025, free of fees.
against this
Tuchman sold 254,260 shares on 1 and 4 May 2026, after the record date, so his holding and the group figure are lower now (C44).
C72עובדהhigh confidence
FTAI's 2025 annual bonus paid 75% on adjusted EBITDA (threshold $897M, target $1,055M, maximum $1,213M) and 25% on individual goals; reported $1,280.2M beat the maximum and every named officer was paid 200% of target. Long-term awards are half three-year RSUs and half PSUs on three-year TSR against the S&P 400 and adjusted earnings per share.
against this
- The bonus measure is segment adjusted EBITDA before corporate costs and interest, which includes gains on asset sales, while operating cash flow was negative $310.7M in 2025; nothing in the plan pays on cash.
- The 25% individual component was also paid at the maximum for every officer, a discretionary call.
היתרון התחרותי, ומי מאיים עליו
למה הלקוחות נשארים
FTAI היא הבעלים של החלקים ולא מוכרת עבודה. היא משיגה אותם מפירוק מנועים משומשים שקנתה, או מיצרנים מאושרים של חלקי חילוף, ולכן העלות שלה נקבעת לפי מה ששילמה על המנוע הישן. בית מלאכה שמוכר עבודה קונה את אותם חלקים חדשים מהיצרן במחיר מחירון.
ההוכחה שזה עובד מגיעה מההנהלה: לדבריה, נתח החברה בתחזוקת CFM56 עלה מ-12% ל-14% ברבעון שהסתיים ביוני לבדו, מול יעד של 25%.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 3 טענות
C04הסקהmedium confidence
The alternative an airline gives up is a full performance restoration at an OEM-authorised shop, which grounds the engine for months and rebuilds it with new original-equipment parts; FTAI is selling remaining flight cycles rather than shop labour.
derivedFTAI's own description of the exchange model in Note 1 of the FY2025 10-K, StandardAero's description of scheduled and unscheduled engine maintenance, repair and overhaul as what it sells, and the CEO's 6,000-cycle versus 10,000-cycle price arithmetic on the June 2026 call.
against this
- An exchange is not always cheaper: management's own arithmetic prices a full 10,000-cycle build at roughly $12 million, which is shop-visit money, so the saving is in downtime and in cycle-matching rather than in headline price.
- Large airlines with in-house engine shops can and do keep the work; management's pitch is that they should stop, which is an argument it is still making rather than one it has won.
- StandardAero's own filing describes on-wing and field service support as part of what it sells, so the incumbent alternative is not only a months-long shop visit.
C07עובדהmedium confidence
FTAI develops and manufactures PMA parts through a joint venture and holds a 25% interest in the Advanced Engine Repair joint venture, which exists to develop cost-saving repair programmes for these engines and was carried at $22.2 million at 30 June 2026.
C08טענת ההנהלהlow confidence
Management says its share of CFM56 engine maintenance rose from 12% to 14% during the June 2026 quarter against a 25% objective, and that total physical module capacity is now 3,000 modules a year.
against this
- The share figure appears in no filing, has no stated denominator, and is not measured by anyone outside the company.
- Management's own two numbers do not reconcile: 1,200 modules at a 14% share implies an industry throughput near 8,600 modules a year, while 3,000 modules of capacity said to support a 25% objective plus 100 Mod-1s implies something closer to 11,000.
- The share is being bought: management guides Aerospace Products margin down to about 30% from 34.7% in FY2025 in order to take it.
האיום
בתי מלאכה ותיקים נכנסים לתחום, ובהם StandardAero. האיום הגדול יותר הוא הזמן: יצרן המנוע אומר שמנוע LEAP החדש יותר יעקוף את CFM56 וייהפך לצי הגדול ביותר. בתחום החשמל, GE Vernova וגם Bloom Energy כבר מוכרות חשמל באתר למרכזי נתונים.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 4 טענות
C09עובדהhigh confidence
StandardAero's FY2025 10-K names expanding aftermarket services on the CFM56 platform, alongside the new LEAP platform, as investments it is making, and its June 2026 10-Q carries the expansion of its CFM56 capabilities into Dallas, Texas as a new-product industrialisation cost and names the continued ramp of the LEAP and CFM56 DFW programmes as a drag on its Engine Services margin.
C11עובדהhigh confidence
GE Aerospace says the LEAP engine is expected in the coming years to overtake the mature CFM56 as the industry's largest fleet, and it is investing $1 billion to increase MRO capacity, including $500 million for LEAP.
C57עובדהhigh confidence
GE Vernova's FY2025 10-K says its Gas Power business offers heavy-duty and aeroderivative gas turbines ranging from small, mobile power to utility scale, names hyperscalers and data centres among the demand, and reports remaining performance obligations up $31.2 billion on the year with aeroderivative equipment among the drivers, on an installed base of about 7,000 gas turbines.
C58עובדהhigh confidence
Bloom Energy's FY2025 10-K frames its own market as grid constraints and permitting delays extending time to power for new facilities, and says it serves data centre, semiconductor, AI infrastructure and utility customers - the same customer problem FTAI Power is being pointed at, solved without combustion.
המתחרות: SARO, GE, GE, WLFC, DAL, GEV, BE, ASLE.
פירוט המתחרים
| סימול | מתחרה | איפה היא מתחרה | שלב | בסיס להשוואה |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SARO | StandardAeroבסיס להשוואה: כן | מוצרי תעופה | כבר נמכר | כן |
| GE | רשת השיפוצים המאושרת של CFM International עצמה, שמנוהלת בידי GE Aerospace וגם Safran Aircraft Enginesבסיס להשוואה: טרם תומחרה | מוצרי תעופה | כבר נמכר | טרם תומחרה |
| מנועי LEAP-1A ו-LEAP-1B | מוצרי תעופה | כבר נמכר | ||
| WLFC | Willis Lease Financeבסיס להשוואה: אין נתון שמיש | מוצרי תעופה | כבר נמכר | אין נתון שמיש |
| DAL | Delta TechOps, זרוע התחזוקה של Delta Air Linesבסיס להשוואה: חלק קטן מהפעילות | מוצרי תעופה | כבר נמכר | חלק קטן מהפעילות |
| GEV | טורבינות הגז האירו-נגזרות של GE Vernovaבסיס להשוואה: בתחום אחד בלבד | FTAI Power | כבר נמכר | בתחום אחד בלבד |
| BE | תאי הדלק מתחמוצת מוצקה של Bloom Energyבסיס להשוואה: מוצר שונה | FTAI Power | כבר נמכר | מוצר שונה |
| ASLE | AerSaleבסיס להשוואה: כן | - | כבר נמכר | כן |
פוטנציאל הצמיחה
גודל ההזדמנות
יותר מ-20,000 מנועים כאלה פועלים בשירות. Safran, אחת משתי יצרניות המנוע, צופה 2,300 עד 2,400 שיפוצים בשנה עד 2028, יותר מ-750 מעל התחזית הקודמת שלה, וירידה מ-2029. כמה מהעבודה הזו היא שיפוץ מודולים אי אפשר לחשב מבחוץ.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 3 טענות
C13עובדהmedium confidence
The CFM56-5B/7B platform has over 20,000 engines in service, according to the holder of the only FAA-approved aftermarket high-pressure turbine blade for it.
against this
- The source is a PMA supplier announcing its own approval, and a large installed base is the number that makes that approval valuable - an interested witness.
- The platform owner's own figures could not be read: CFM International returns HTTP 429 and Safran HTTP 403 to every non-browser client, so the count is uncorroborated.
C53עובדהmedium confidence
Safran's chief executive told its 13 February 2026 full-year results call that CFM56 shop visits will run at about 2,300 to 2,400 a year from 2025 to 2028 - more than 750 above the forecast it gave at its 2024 capital markets day - and that they are expected to start declining from 2029.
against this
- Safran owns half the platform and sells the new parts, so a longer CFM56 life is its own revenue too: this is the platform owner forecasting its own aftermarket.
- It counts whole shop visits and FTAI sells module exchanges, so the figure bounds the market without sizing the one this company actually sells into.
- Safran's own pages refuse every non-browser client, so the number is read from trade-press coverage of the call rather than from the company's transcript.
- The coverage carrying it pairs the forecast with a broker's estimate that retirements ran near 1% of the fleet in 2025 and with that broker's own doubt about the 2029 date; neither is Safran's statement and neither is relied on here.
C15אומדןlow confidence
The annual CFM56 module-refurbishment market cannot be composed from outside the company, and a naive composition from FTAI's own figures fails a hard bound.
derivedFTAI's Aerospace Products revenue of $875.0 million on 296 modules in the June 2026 quarter is about $2.96 million per module; multiplied by the roughly 8,600 industry modules a year implied by management's own 1,200-module target at a 14% share, that is on the order of $25 billion, which exceeds GE Aerospace's entire FY2025 commercial services revenue of $30,163 million once the widebody and LEAP fleets inside that figure are allowed for. The composition is therefore wrong, and no reachable institution publishes a CFM56 shop-visit interval or an average shop-visit value to replace it.
against this
- FTAI's Aerospace Products revenue includes whole-engine sales as well as module work, so revenue per module overstates the price of a module and the composition may fail for that reason rather than because the market is smaller than it looks.
- Management's stated share may be measured on value rather than on module count, in which case the implied industry throughput is not comparable to a module count at all.
מי כבר התחייב
לעסק החשמל יש הזמנה אחת: 1.465 מיליארד דולר מחברת ענן גדולה שלא נחשפה, שהוזמנה מהמיזם המשותף של FTAI, לאספקה עד נובמבר 2027. ההתחייבות המחייבת האחרת היא השותפות של FTAI עצמה, שרכשה 60 מטוסים שלה בכ-700 מיליון דולר וחייבת לקבל מ-FTAI את מנועי ההחלפה שלהם.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 2 טענות
C16עובדהmedium confidence
J&F Power Systems, FTAI's joint venture with Jereh Group, signed a five-year master supply agreement with an unnamed leading international cloud service provider and an initial purchase order valued at $1.465 billion, for deliveries in batches through November 2027, with an advance payment at signing, milestone progress payments, and downward performance adjustments capped at 10% of equipment value.
against this
- No Form 8-K was filed for it: the only 8-K between 29 May and 31 August 2026 is the June-quarter results release, so the only account of the terms is the company's own press release.
- The counterparty is not named, so its credit cannot be checked, and the contracting party is the joint venture rather than FTAI.
- No Mod-1 has ever been delivered to a customer; the first was targeted for the fourth quarter of 2026 when this was written, and the 29 October 2026 release says first deliveries come next year (C78).
- 2026-10-29editedcounter-evidence updated: the Q3 2026 release moves the first Mod-1 delivery from the fourth quarter of 2026 to 2027 (C78)
C17עובדהhigh confidence
The 2025 Partnership completed a $2.0 billion equity fundraise in October 2025 and agreed to buy 45 on-lease narrowbody aircraft from FTAI for an estimated net $549 million, extended on 29 June 2026 to 60 aircraft for approximately $700 million in aggregate and all sold by 30 June 2026; FTAI carries a 19% equity-method interest in it at $365.5 million and its exchange business exclusively supplies the partnership's replacement engines and modules for its life.
התוצאות
המספרים
היא צומחת?מהר
המכירות צמחו ב-45% ב-12 החודשים שהסתיימו ביוני 2026, בערך באותו קצב כמו ה-45% בשנה שהסתיימה בדצמבר 2025.
היא רווחית?כן
16% מהמכירות נשארות לה כרווח, לעומת 21% בשנה שהסתיימה בדצמבר 2023.
מה נשאר לה מכל מכירה?סביר
מכל דולר מכירות נשארים לה 39 סנט אחרי עלות המכר, והיא מוציאה מהם 0 סנט על הנהלה וכלליות, ההוצאה התפעולית הגדולה ביותר שלה.
התשואה על ההון גבוהה?גבוהה מאוד
התשואה על ההון העצמי עמדה על 174% בשנה, לעומת הפסד של 12% בשנה שהסתיימה בדצמבר 2021.
כמה זמן היא יכולה להמשיך?זמן קצר
היא השתמשה ב-480 מיליון דולר במזומן ב-12 החודשים האחרונים, ולכן 337 מיליון הדולר שבקופה יספיקו לכ-0.7 שנה בקצב הזה.
המאזן איתן?מתוח
החוב שלה גבוה ב-3.12 מיליארד דולר מהמזומן שבידיה, והפעילות לא מכניסה מזומנים לפירעונו.
בעלי המניות מדוללים?כן
מספר המניות עלה ב-16% בארבע שנים וחצי, והתגמול במניות מסתכם ב-0.8% מהמכירות.
כל המספרים
נתונים מדוחות ה-10-K וה-10-Q של החברה, נכון ל-4 באוקטובר 2026. שנת הכספים של החברה מסתיימת בדצמבר.
| דצמבר 2021 | דצמבר 2022 | דצמבר 2023 | דצמבר 2024 | דצמבר 2025 | 12 חודשים עד יוני 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| גודל וצמיחה | ||||||
| מכירות | $336M | $708M | $1.17B | $1.73B | $2.51B | $3.11B |
| צמיחת המכירות | +13% | +111% | +65% | +48% | +45% | +45% |
| רווח | ||||||
| שיעור הרווח הגולמי | 96% | 65% | 57% | 52% | 46% | 39% |
| שיעור הרווח הנקי | −39% | −30% | 21% | 0.5% | 20% | 16% |
| עלות הצמיחה, לכל דולר מכירות | ||||||
| הנהלה וכלליות | 4.0% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| תגמול מבוסס מניות | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.8% |
| השקעות הוניות | 47% | 20% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.3% |
| מזומנים | ||||||
| תזרים מפעילות שוטפת | −$22.0M | −$20.7M | $129M | −$188M | −$311M | −$440M |
| תזרים מזומנים חופשי | −$179M | −$165M | $123M | −$197M | −$338M | −$480M |
| מאזן | ||||||
| מזומנים והשקעות לזמן קצר | $138M | $33.6M | $90.8M | $115M | $300M | $337M |
| חוב | $2.50B | $2.18B | $2.52B | $3.44B | $3.45B | $3.45B |
| מזומן נטו | −$2.36B | −$2.14B | −$2.43B | −$3.33B | −$3.15B | −$3.12B |
| תשואות ומניות | ||||||
| מספר המניות (בדילול מלא) | 89.9M | 99.4M | 100M | 102M | 104M | 104M |
עלות הצמיחה
כל דולר מכירות נוסף עולה ל-FTAI יותר מהקודם. ההוצאות הכלליות נשארות קטנות, אבל מכירת חלקי מנוע משופצים עולה הרבה יותר מהחכרת מטוסים, ולכן הרווח עמד במקום בזמן שהמכירות צמחו. הצמיחה גם כובלת מזומנים במנועים שנקנים כדי לשפץ אותם.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 3 טענות
C69עובדהhigh confidence
Per sales dollar, cost of sales rose from 42.9 cents in 2023 to 47.6 in 2024, 53.8 in 2025 and 65.0 in the first half of 2026, while operating expenses fell from 9.4 to 6.7, 6.1 and then 7.4, general and administrative from 1.2 to 0.4 and 0.3, and stock pay rose from 0.1 to 0.9; capital spending on property stayed near 1 cent.
against this
- The rise in cost of sales is partly mix: lease and maintenance revenue, which carry almost no cost of sales, fell from 34% of revenue in 2023 to under 6% in the June 2026 quarter as aircraft went to the 2025 Partnership (C68, C17).
- The numbers card's general and administrative line is the filer's narrow GeneralAndAdministrativeExpense tag ($9.5M in 2025); the income statement's separate Operating expenses line ($152.5M), which carries pay, is the overhead that matters and is used here as well.
C22אומדןhigh confidence
Trailing twelve-month adjusted EBITDA to June 2026 is about $1,191.5 million against $1,190.9 million for FY2025 - unchanged - while trailing revenue rose to $3,112.9 million from $2,142.9 million a year earlier, up 45.3%.
derivedFY2025 adjusted EBITDA of $1,190,922 thousand from the February 2026 results release, plus first-half 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $617,021 thousand, less first-half 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $616,363 thousand, both from the June-quarter release. Revenue is the sum of the four filed quarterly totals to June 2026 and the four to June 2025.
against this
- Adjusted EBITDA is management's own definition and includes a pro-rata share of unconsolidated entities, so the trailing figure mixes consolidated and equity-accounted profit.
- The flatness is by design rather than by failure: leasing earnings were deliberately sold into third-party partnerships, and management argues the fee stream replacing them arrives from the December quarter.
- Net income attributable to shareholders was flat too over the same span, which the same explanation covers, so the finding does not separate a mix shift from a deterioration on its own.
C29עובדהhigh confidence
Net cash used in operating activities was $265.3 million in the first half of 2026 against $136.3 million a year earlier, with inventory absorbing $453.1 million; FTAI's own accounting note explains that engine purchases whose predominant expected inflow is from sales are reported as operating outflows while much of the sale proceeds appear in investing.
הדוח האחרון (29 ביולי)
הרבעון שהסתיים ביוני 2026, לפי הדוחות.
41%
צמיחת המכירות
לעומת הרבעון המקביל אשתקד
14.7%
צמיחה לעומת הרבעון הקודם
לעומת 25.5% ברבעון שלפני כן
ברבעון שהסתיים ב-30 בספטמבר 2026 מכרה פעילות המנועים ב-910.0 מיליון דולר והרוויחה 282.4 מיליון דולר לפני ריבית, מס ופחת, שיעור של 31% לעומת 28.5% ביוני. היא שיפצה 311 חלקי מנוע. בכלל החברה הרווח מאותו סוג עלה ב-17.1% ל-348.3 מיליון דולר, משום שפעילות ההשכרה הרוויחה פחות.
כדי לעמוד ביעד המנועים של השנה, 1,050 מיליון דולר, הרבעון של דצמבר צריך להניב 295.3 מיליון דולר, 4.6% יותר מהרבעון של ספטמבר. טורבינת ההספק עברה את הבדיקות, אבל האספקה הראשונה שלה נדחתה לשנה הבאה. ריכוז הלקוחות ושימושי המזומן מופיעים בדוח הרבעוני, שטרם פורסם.
מה זה אומר על התזההשיעור נשאר ברמה שאמרנו שנדרשת, וזה תומך בפעילות המנועים. הטורבינה נדחתה והיעד דורש רבעון אחרון חזק יותר, ולכן המחיר עדיין נשען על הבטחה. ההערכה שלנו נשארת ניטרלית.
הרבעון בפירוט
צמיחת המכירות לעומת הרבעון הקודם, לפי הדוחות.
רווח למניה $1.13, לעומת תחזית של $1.36; בדוח עצמו $1.13, בלי התאמות.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 5 טענות
C74עובדהhigh confidence
In the quarter ended 30 September 2026 FTAI's Aerospace Products revenue was $910.0 million, up 76% on Q3 2025, and its adjusted EBITDA $282.4 million, up 57%, a 31% margin against 28.5% in the June quarter; it produced 311 CFM56 modules, 877 so far in 2026 against an outlook of 1,200. Nine-month adjusted EBITDA of $754.7 million leaves $295.3 million for the fourth quarter to reach the reaffirmed $1,050 million 2026 guide, 4.6% more than the third quarter.
C75עובדהhigh confidence
Group adjusted EBITDA was $348.3 million in Q3 2026, up 17.1% on $297.4 million a year earlier, while Aviation Leasing fell to $104.0 million from $134.4 million; revenue was $977.7 million against $667.1 million, and diluted earnings per share were $1.43 against $1.10 on $149.1 million of net income attributable to shareholders.
C77עובדהhigh confidence
At 30 September 2026 FTAI's inventory was $1,932.3 million against $1,193.8 million at December 2025, its leasing equipment $1,035.0 million against $1,545.8 million, and it carried $234.0 million of contract liabilities to the affiliated partnership that were nil at December.
C78טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
FTAI says the Mod-1 power turbine has met its targets of 25 MW peak and 23 MW continuous power on gas and liquid fuel, that more than 100 units are under contract for delivery in 2027 and 2028 in the US and Canada, and that first deliveries come next year; the thesis, written in September, had the first delivery targeted for the fourth quarter of 2026.
C52אומדןhigh confidence
The reaffirmed $1,050 million 2026 Aerospace Products adjusted EBITDA guidance, against $754.7 million earned in the first nine months, requires $295.3 million in the fourth quarter - 4.6% more than the $282.4 million of the third quarter, and above any single quarter so far.
derivedThe guidance is in the June-quarter and September-quarter results releases and the nine-month segment adjusted EBITDA of $754,671 thousand is in the September release; the fourth-quarter requirement is the difference.
against this
- Management raised the module target to 1,200 and capacity to 3,000 in the same release, so the volume the step-up needs is the volume it says it is building.
- Segment EBITDA rose 51% year on year in the June quarter; a 16% sequential step from that quarter is smaller than the 12% step from March to June.
- The guide is a segment figure before Corporate & Other, so hitting it says nothing about group adjusted EBITDA, which is the flat line the thesis rests on.
- 2026-10-29editedre-struck on the Q3 2026 release: $754.7M earned in nine months, $295.3M needed in the fourth quarter (C74)
לאן הלך הכסף
ב-27 באוקטובר הדירקטוריון הכפיל את הרכישה החוזרת ל-1.0 מיליארד דולר, ו-FTAI הודיעה שתקנה מניות ב-500.0 מיליון דולר דרך בנק ברבעון הרביעי. בסוף ספטמבר היו לה 385.6 מיליון דולר במזומן, וההודעה לא מפרטת איך תמומן הרכישה.
בעלי עניין ברבעון השני של 2026: 10 קניות ו-7 מכירות, לפי הדיווחים שלהם ל-SEC (Form 4).
הראיות (באנגלית) · 4 טענות
C76טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
On 27 October 2026 the board doubled FTAI's repurchase authorisation to $1.0 billion and the company says it intends to enter a $500.0 million accelerated repurchase with Royal Bank of Canada, to complete in the fourth quarter; about $80.0 million had been bought at a weighted average $178.73 a share, $50.0 million of it in the third quarter. At 30 September FTAI held $385.6 million of cash and $3,455.5 million of long-term debt, and the release does not say how the accelerated purchase is paid for or give operating cash flow.
against this
- Operating activities consumed cash in each of the last six reported quarters and cash was $385.6 million at 30 September against $500.0 million to be bought, so the purchase must be funded from borrowing, asset sales or the capital-call line, none of which the release names.
- An accelerated purchase is a bank-funded advance settled over the fourth quarter, so announcing it does not show the business generated the cash.
C45עובדהhigh confidence
On 15 September 2026 FTAI's board authorised the repurchase of up to $500 million of ordinary shares through 30 September 2029, to be funded from cash on the balance sheet, at management's discretion and with no obligation to buy any amount; the release carries no executive statement and no Form 8-K was filed for it; on 27 October the board doubled the authorisation to $1.0 billion and FTAI announced a $500.0 million accelerated repurchase (C76).
sourceFTAI press release - $500 million share repurchase programprimaryFTAI Aviation EDGAR filing index, read 19 September 2026primaryFTAI Aviation Q3 2026 results release (Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1)primary
against this
- Cash on the balance sheet was $337.2 million at 30 June 2026 against $500 million authorised, and operating activities have consumed cash in six consecutive quarters, so the stated funding source does not yet exist in the amount authorised.
- Nothing obliges the company to buy a single share: the authorisation runs three years and may be suspended without notice, so it is a statement of intent rather than a return of capital.
- The same balance sheet carries $3.5 billion of senior notes, a $1.0 billion maturity in May 2028 and an equity co-investment into the 2026 vehicle that management says is bridged by a capital-call facility.
- 2026-10-29editedextended with the 27 October doubling of the authorisation and the accelerated repurchase
C32עובדהhigh confidence
At 30 June 2026 FTAI had $4,489.2 million of assets, $3,453.3 million of long-term debt net of issuance costs, $337.2 million of cash and $404.0 million of total equity, with nothing due within one year and senior notes maturing 2028, 2030, 2031, 2032 and 2033.
C29עובדהhigh confidence
Net cash used in operating activities was $265.3 million in the first half of 2026 against $136.3 million a year earlier, with inventory absorbing $453.1 million; FTAI's own accounting note explains that engine purchases whose predominant expected inflow is from sales are reported as operating outflows while much of the sale proceeds appear in investing.
המחיר, ואיפה אנחנו חלוקים על השוק
בקצרה. מלא. המחיר מגלם עמידה ביעד הרווח של ההנהלה ל-2027. ביחס למה ש-FTAI מרוויחה היום הוא יקר, ושני חלקים ביעד הזה לא הוכחו או כבר קוצצו.
מחיר המניה
$157.59
שער סגירה,
מכפיל הרווח התפעולי (שווי החברה ביחס לרווח התפעולי)
25.3
אמצע טווח המתחרות: 125.2
המניה ירדה ב-21.5% בין סוף יוני לפרסום התוצאות בלי סיבה מוצהרת, ועוד 8.2% בשבוע שהסתיים ב-25 בספטמבר, גם הפעם בלי הסבר. בחצי שנה המכפיל על המכירות ירד ב-41.1% בזמן שהמכירות למניה עלו ב-23.9%, כך שהירידה נבעה מהמחיר ולא מהעסק.
תוצאות רבעון ספטמבר פורסמו ב-29 באוקטובר: פעילות המנועים הרוויחה 282.4 מיליון דולר, מעט מתחת ל-289 מיליון הדולר לרבעון שהיעד דרש, ולכן הרבעון של דצמבר צריך להניב 295.3 מיליון דולר. הבדיקה הבאה היא הדוח הרבעוני, שיגלה את חלקם של שני הלקוחות הגדולים ואת המזומן שעומד מאחורי הרכישה החוזרת.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 5 טענות
C50עובדהhigh confidence
Between 30 June and 28 July 2026 the shares fell 21.5%, from $270.53 to $212.47, before the June-quarter results were released; the only company announcements in the window were the AEI freighter collaboration on 7 July, followed by a 5.8% fall, and the $1.465 billion power order on 22 July, followed by a 5.8% rise; the results session of 30 July closed up 0.1% on the year's heaviest volume, and the shares reached $176.44 on 15 September before the buyback.
C46עובדהhigh confidence
The shares rose 7.6% in the session after the buyback announcement, on volume 1.76 times the 60-day average, and closed at $190.74 on 18 September 2026, 41.0% below the 252-day high of $323.51 and 27.6% above the low of $149.50.
C47עובדהmedium confidence
Over the six months to 25 September 2026 the shares fell 27.0% while trailing revenue per diluted share rose 23.9%, so the multiple paid for each dollar of trailing sales fell 41.1%; over the same span the panel's average price target rose, the last month's single target sitting 8.5% above the year's average, on ten analysts all rated positive for twelve consecutive monthly readings.
sourceResearch pack, frozen at content/FTAI/research-pack.jsonprimaryFTAI Aviation Q2 2026 results release, 8-K Exhibit 99.1primaryFTAI Aviation FY2025 results release, 8-K Exhibit 99.1primary
against this
- Revenue per share is the wrong numerator for this business: half the revenue growth arrived with a five-point margin concession, so a falling sales multiple partly records a falling margin rather than a cheaper stock.
- The target series is a vendor aggregation - two targets in the last month against sixteen in the year - so the recent average is two analysts' opinion.
- A panel that has read 100% positive for a year cannot register a change of view except by leaving, and the count has not moved either, so the series says nothing about whether the objection behind the slide was shared.
- 2026-09-27editedre-struck at the 25 September 2026 close in the 27 September review; the shares fell 8.2% in the week with no filing and no stated cause; the last month's target average now rests on one target rather than two
C52אומדןhigh confidence
The reaffirmed $1,050 million 2026 Aerospace Products adjusted EBITDA guidance, against $754.7 million earned in the first nine months, requires $295.3 million in the fourth quarter - 4.6% more than the $282.4 million of the third quarter, and above any single quarter so far.
derivedThe guidance is in the June-quarter and September-quarter results releases and the nine-month segment adjusted EBITDA of $754,671 thousand is in the September release; the fourth-quarter requirement is the difference.
against this
- Management raised the module target to 1,200 and capacity to 3,000 in the same release, so the volume the step-up needs is the volume it says it is building.
- Segment EBITDA rose 51% year on year in the June quarter; a 16% sequential step from that quarter is smaller than the 12% step from March to June.
- The guide is a segment figure before Corporate & Other, so hitting it says nothing about group adjusted EBITDA, which is the flat line the thesis rests on.
- 2026-10-29editedre-struck on the Q3 2026 release: $754.7M earned in nine months, $295.3M needed in the fourth quarter (C74)
C74עובדהhigh confidence
In the quarter ended 30 September 2026 FTAI's Aerospace Products revenue was $910.0 million, up 76% on Q3 2025, and its adjusted EBITDA $282.4 million, up 57%, a 31% margin against 28.5% in the June quarter; it produced 311 CFM56 modules, 877 so far in 2026 against an outlook of 1,200. Nine-month adjusted EBITDA of $754.7 million leaves $295.3 million for the fourth quarter to reach the reaffirmed $1,050 million 2026 guide, 4.6% more than the third quarter.
ההימורהימור בטוח, פוטנציאל מוגבל
אם זה מצליח
1.6×
מהשווי של היום, במכפיל שצוין
אם זה נכשל
נשארים עם 100%
משווי השוק של היום: שאר החברה, בניכוי החוב שלה
איך לקרוא את המכפיל
קונה משלם כ-25 פעמים הרווח התפעולי של השנה שעברה, מה שנשאר מהמכירות אחרי הוצאות תפעוליות, והרווח הזה לא גדל. מול רווח של 2.3 מיליארד דולר ב-2027, לפני ריבית, מס ובלאי נכסים, שההנהלה מבטיחה, אותו מחיר הוא כ-9 פעמים.
ההבטחה נשענת על עסק חשמל שעוד לא מסר טורבינה, ועל עסק החכרה שהתחזית שלו קוצצה ביולי.
מול ההיסטוריה שלה. המכפיל נמצא בערך איפה שהוא נמצא בדרך כלל בכל מדד, כך שהשוק לא תמחר מחדש את FTAI ביחס לעבר שלה. השאלה הפתוחה היא אם הצמיחה שהובטחה אכן תגיע.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 4 טענות
C36אומדןhigh confidence
At $175.06 on 25 September 2026 the enterprise value is about $21.1 billion: about 25 times the vendor's trailing operating profit - FTAI tags no operating-income subtotal, so that line is the vendor's - about 18 times trailing adjusted EBITDA, about 9 times the 2027 business-segment guidance, and about 38 times the four filed quarterly diluted earnings figures.
derivedEnterprise value of $21,074.3 million and EV/EBIT of 25.3 from the frozen research pack; the pack's enterprise value over trailing adjusted EBITDA of about $1,191.5 million (C22) and over the $2.3 billion 2027 guidance (C25); the earnings multiple is $175.06 over $4.60, the sum of the filed diluted figures for the September and December 2025 and March and June 2026 quarters.
against this
- Enterprise value adds gross debt to market value, and the $337.2 million of cash netted against it is working cash in a business that has consumed cash in operations for six straight quarters - and is now also the cash named to fund a $500 million buyback.
- The 2027 guidance is a sum of segment figures before Corporate & Other, interest and depreciation, so ten times it is not a company multiple and understates what is being paid.
- Trailing earnings carry $245.1 million of first-half gains the cash flow reverses out, so the earnings multiple is struck on a profit whose composition is unusual.
- The operating-profit line is the vendor's construction, because the filer presents no operating income subtotal; the multiple on it cannot be reconciled to a filed figure.
- 2026-09-27editedre-struck at the 25 September 2026 close in the 27 September review; the shares fell 8.2% in the week with no filing and no stated cause
C25טענת ההנהלהlow confidence
Management guides 2027 business-segment adjusted EBITDA of $2.3 billion, comprising $1.4 billion from Aerospace Products, $450 million from Aviation Leasing and $450 million from Power.
against this
- It is a sum of segment figures: it excludes Corporate & Other, which was negative $46.5 million in the June quarter alone, and it excludes about $265 million a year of interest and preferred dividends and about $268 million of depreciation and amortisation.
- It requires roughly a doubling of trailing adjusted EBITDA in eighteen months, of which $450 million comes from a product that has never been delivered.
- The same management raised 2026 guidance in February and took the raise back in July.
C24עובדהhigh confidence
FTAI cut its 2026 Aviation Leasing adjusted EBITDA guidance from $575 million to $475 million on 29 July 2026, five months after raising total 2026 business-segment guidance from $1.525 billion to $1.625 billion.
C26טענת ההנהלהlow confidence
The CEO says the $450 million of 2027 Power EBITDA is the bottom of a $450-750 million range and does not assume 100 units - materially less than the 100-unit assumption.
against this
- The February 2026 results release stated planned production of 100 units in 2027, so the number underlying the guidance has moved down while the headline production target has not.
- Management would not disclose the per-megawatt economics on the call, calling them commercially sensitive, so the range cannot be checked against a unit price.
- No Mod-1 has been delivered; the first delivery was targeted for the fourth quarter of 2026 when this was written, and the 29 October 2026 release says first deliveries come next year (C78) and the business is starting from zero.
- 2026-10-29editedcounter-evidence updated: the Q3 2026 release moves the first Mod-1 delivery from the fourth quarter of 2026 to 2027 (C78)
המכפיל מול המתחרים
המתחרות שהדוח השנתי של החברה עצמה מונה, וכל אחת מהן אומתה מול הדוח של המתחרה. נמדד לפי שווי החברה ביחס לכל דולר של רווח תפעולי, מהזולה ליקרה:
| סימול | חברה | שווי החברה ביחס לרווח התפעולי |
|---|---|---|
| SARO | StandardAero | 16.5× |
| FTAI | FTAI Aviation | 25.3× |
| ASLE | AerSale | 234.0× |
| WLFC | Willis Lease Finance לא נכללה | לא מתומחרת |
האמצע של שתי האחרות הוא 125.2. FTAI Aviation היא השנייה בזולה מבין שלוש.
נתוני המתחרות מגיעים מספק נתונים, ולכן כדאי להסתכל על פיזור הקבוצה ולא על זוג בודד.
יקרה מבית המלאכה הוותיק והגדול יותר, וזולה בהרבה מהקטן יותר. עם שתי מתחרות בלבד, שרחוקות כל כך זו מזו, ההשוואה אומרת מעט על המחיר.
נבדקו והושארו בחוץ גם AerCap Holdings (תחליף, לא אותו מוצר) ו-AAR (תחליף, לא אותו מוצר).
ההימור: מה הוא מניב אם מצליח
ההימור הזה הוא על עסק אחד בלבד: FTAI Power, הטורבינות שנבנות ממנועי סילון ישנים. תיקון מנועים והחכרת מטוסים נספרים בנפרד, לפי המכפיל שמקבלת מתחרה נסחרת בתחום תיקון המנועים, ואם יעמדו ביעדי 2027 שלהם הם מצדיקים לבדם את כל המחיר של היום.
לכן המחיר של היום לא דורש דבר מ-Power. אם Power תעמוד ביעד של ההנהלה, החברה שווה מעט יותר מהיום, ולכן זה הימור יקר; אם Power לא תספק דבר, ההפסד קטן.
| EBITDA של FTAI Power בעוד שנתיים עד שלוש | יחידות Mod-1 שצריך למסור בשנה | במכפיל שצוין |
|---|---|---|
| 450.00 מיליון דולר (הצלחה גדולה) | כ-60, כשנשמר 100% | 1.6× |
| $750.00M | כ-100, כשנשמר 100% | 1.8× |
| 900.00 מיליון דולר (תחזית השוק) | כ-120, כשנשמר 100% | 2.0× |
לפי תחזיות פרטיות, ב-2029 יותקנו בארה״ב כ-20 ג'יגה-וואט בשנה של אנרגיית גז באתר מרכזי הנתונים. אם FTAI תתפוס 15% מהשוק, היא תספק 120 יחידות Mod-1, חמישית מעבר ליכולת שהצהירה עליה, ותרוויח כ-900 מיליון דולר. לפי התחזית הזו, 900.00 מיליון דולר הם פי 2.0 מהשווי של היום: הימור יקר על תרחיש השוק. שווי FTAI Power יהיה כ-16.20 מיליארד דולר, והמחיר לא מגלם בו שום ערך.
כדי להגיע לפי 2 (הימור הוגן) היא צריכה EBITDA של כ-929.69 מיליון דולר מחברת FTAI Power (כ-124 יחידות Mod-1 שיסופקו בשנה), ולפי 5 (הימור זול) כ-4.14 מיליארד דולר EBITDA מחברת FTAI Power (כ-552 יחידות Mod-1 שיסופקו בשנה), באותו מכפיל.
כל שורה היא FTAI Power לבדה, ועוד שאר החברה (מוצרי תעופה והחכרת מטוסים), שנספרת בכ-21.83 מיליארד דולר.
השלבים שעליה לעבור
- בוצע נחתם הסכם אספקה לחמש שנים והזמנה ראשונה של 1.465 מיליארד דולר מספקית ענן
- בוצע יחידת Mod-1 עברה בדיקות, ולקוחות השקה נסגרו
- בתהליך יחידת Mod-1 ראשונה נמסרת ללקוח קצה צפוי בדצמבר 2026
- טרם התחיל כל המשלוחים של ההזמנה הראשונה נמסרים צפוי בנובמבר 2027
- טרם התחיל דווח על EBITDA של Power ב-2027 בהיקף של לפחות 450 מיליון דולר צפוי בפברואר 2028
הפירוט שמאחורי התווית
Rating
Expensive
the big win's payoff against the 2× and 5× lines
Cheap bet at about
≈ $27.98
82% מתחת למחיר (שער סגירה, )
העסק החדש
free
what FTAI Power is worth if it works, and the price pays nothing for it
Market case
2.0×
an expensive bet if the market forecast holds
הראיות (באנגלית) · 5 טענות
C25טענת ההנהלהlow confidence
Management guides 2027 business-segment adjusted EBITDA of $2.3 billion, comprising $1.4 billion from Aerospace Products, $450 million from Aviation Leasing and $450 million from Power.
against this
- It is a sum of segment figures: it excludes Corporate & Other, which was negative $46.5 million in the June quarter alone, and it excludes about $265 million a year of interest and preferred dividends and about $268 million of depreciation and amortisation.
- It requires roughly a doubling of trailing adjusted EBITDA in eighteen months, of which $450 million comes from a product that has never been delivered.
- The same management raised 2026 guidance in February and took the raise back in July.
C26טענת ההנהלהlow confidence
The CEO says the $450 million of 2027 Power EBITDA is the bottom of a $450-750 million range and does not assume 100 units - materially less than the 100-unit assumption.
against this
- The February 2026 results release stated planned production of 100 units in 2027, so the number underlying the guidance has moved down while the headline production target has not.
- Management would not disclose the per-megawatt economics on the call, calling them commercially sensitive, so the range cannot be checked against a unit price.
- No Mod-1 has been delivered; the first delivery was targeted for the fourth quarter of 2026 when this was written, and the 29 October 2026 release says first deliveries come next year (C78) and the business is starting from zero.
- 2026-10-29editedcounter-evidence updated: the Q3 2026 release moves the first Mod-1 delivery from the fourth quarter of 2026 to 2027 (C78)
C51טענת ההנהלהlow confidence
A summary of management's remarks at the 16 September 2026 Morgan Stanley conference has Aerospace Products on track for $3.5 billion of revenue and more than $1 billion of EBITDA in 2026 and $4.7 billion and $1.4 billion in 2027, margins of about 28% to 30% down from roughly 40%, about 1,000 module shop visits this year at more than 10% of CFM56 and V2500 shop visits, the Mod-1 unit through testing with launch customers secured for next year at $7 million to $8 million of EBITDA a unit, and the buyback authorised because the stock does not fully capture the growth potential.
against this
- The transcript itself was unreachable, so the source is a model's reading of a summary article, and one figure in the same summary - a $6 billion raise by the first Strategic Capital vehicle - contradicts the 10-K's $2.0 billion equity fundraise.
- The share figure is struck on a different denominator from the 14% of CFM56 maintenance stated on the June call - CFM56 and V2500 shop visits together - so the two cannot be compared.
- At $7 million to $8 million a unit the $450 million 2027 Power guide assumes 56 to 64 units delivered and accepted in a year the business has never delivered one.
- 2026-10-29editedexpiry rolled: the 29 October release reaffirmed 2026 and 2027 adjusted EBITDA guidance across all business lines
C16עובדהmedium confidence
J&F Power Systems, FTAI's joint venture with Jereh Group, signed a five-year master supply agreement with an unnamed leading international cloud service provider and an initial purchase order valued at $1.465 billion, for deliveries in batches through November 2027, with an advance payment at signing, milestone progress payments, and downward performance adjustments capped at 10% of equipment value.
against this
- No Form 8-K was filed for it: the only 8-K between 29 May and 31 August 2026 is the June-quarter results release, so the only account of the terms is the company's own press release.
- The counterparty is not named, so its credit cannot be checked, and the contracting party is the joint venture rather than FTAI.
- No Mod-1 has ever been delivered to a customer; the first was targeted for the fourth quarter of 2026 when this was written, and the 29 October 2026 release says first deliveries come next year (C78).
- 2026-10-29editedcounter-evidence updated: the Q3 2026 release moves the first Mod-1 delivery from the fourth quarter of 2026 to 2027 (C78)
C23עובדהhigh confidence
Aerospace Products adjusted EBITDA was $249.7 million in the June 2026 quarter, up 51.5% year on year, on segment revenue of $875.0 million, up 78%, at a 28.5% margin against 34.7% for FY2025.
איפה אנחנו חלוקים על השוק
השוק חושב
חברה שצוברת כוח בתחזוקת מנועים ולוקחת נתח בשוק שחסרה בו קיבולת, והכפלת הרווח ב-2027 סבירה.
אנחנו חושבים
עסק המנועים אמיתי. שני שלישים מהחברה סביבו בולעים את מה שהוא מרוויח.
כל 18 האנליסטים ממליצים לקנות את המניה, ואף אחד מהם לא שאל למה הרווח הקבוצתי לא השתנה בזמן שההכנסות עלו ב-45.3%. זה חשבון פשוט על נתוני החברה עצמה.
מה שיוכיח שטעינו הוא זינוק ברווח הקבוצה בעוד כמה רבעונים, לאחר שהטורבינה הראשונה תסופק, מועד שהחברה מציבה כעת ב-2027.
מה אומרים האנליסטים
המלצות חיוביות
100%
מתוך 10, 1 בספטמבר
לפני ארבעה חודשים
100%
מתוך 10, 1 במאי
הראיות (באנגלית) · 3 טענות
C37עובדהmedium confidence
The frozen pack's analyst panel shows 18 Buy, no Hold and no Sell, its monthly rating series ten analysts all positive for twelve readings to 1 September 2026, and a mean 2028 earnings estimate of $17.83 from six contributors; the shares sit 45.9% below their 252-day high and 5.94% of the float was short at the 15 September 2026 settlement.
- 2026-09-27editedre-struck at the 25 September 2026 close in the 27 September review; the shares fell 8.2% in the week with no filing and no stated cause; the 2028 estimate eased from $18.34 and short interest fell 10.2% at the newer settlement
C22אומדןhigh confidence
Trailing twelve-month adjusted EBITDA to June 2026 is about $1,191.5 million against $1,190.9 million for FY2025 - unchanged - while trailing revenue rose to $3,112.9 million from $2,142.9 million a year earlier, up 45.3%.
derivedFY2025 adjusted EBITDA of $1,190,922 thousand from the February 2026 results release, plus first-half 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $617,021 thousand, less first-half 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $616,363 thousand, both from the June-quarter release. Revenue is the sum of the four filed quarterly totals to June 2026 and the four to June 2025.
against this
- Adjusted EBITDA is management's own definition and includes a pro-rata share of unconsolidated entities, so the trailing figure mixes consolidated and equity-accounted profit.
- The flatness is by design rather than by failure: leasing earnings were deliberately sold into third-party partnerships, and management argues the fee stream replacing them arrives from the December quarter.
- Net income attributable to shareholders was flat too over the same span, which the same explanation covers, so the finding does not separate a mix shift from a deterioration on its own.
C78טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
FTAI says the Mod-1 power turbine has met its targets of 25 MW peak and 23 MW continuous power on gas and liquid fuel, that more than 100 units are under contract for delivery in 2027 and 2028 in the US and Canada, and that first deliveries come next year; the thesis, written in September, had the first delivery targeted for the fourth quarter of 2026.
מה יכול להשתבש, ואיך נדע
הסיכונים
- חוב כבד, הון עצמי דק. 3.45 מיליארד דולר חוב לטווח ארוך מול הון עצמי של 404.0 מיליון דולר, ו-1.0 מיליארד דולר לפירעון במאי 2028.
- רווח שלא יחזור. 93% מהרווח במחצית הראשונה הגיעו ממכירות נכסים, ממכירות לשותפות ומפיצויי ביטוח על מטוסים שנתקעו ברוסיה.
- חשמל עדיין על הנייר. ההזמנה של 1.465 מיליארד דולר לא דווחה מעולם כאירוע מהותי, ולא נמסרה אף טורבינה.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 6 טענות
C32עובדהhigh confidence
At 30 June 2026 FTAI had $4,489.2 million of assets, $3,453.3 million of long-term debt net of issuance costs, $337.2 million of cash and $404.0 million of total equity, with nothing due within one year and senior notes maturing 2028, 2030, 2031, 2032 and 2033.
C34טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Management says net leverage ended the June quarter at 2.7 times against a 2.5-3.0 times target, that Moody's upgraded FTAI to Ba1, and that 2026 adjusted free cash flow guidance falls from $915 million to $878 million.
against this
- None of the three figures is in a filing: the 10-Q debt note gives gross borrowings and no covenant leverage calculation, and the release carries no free-cash-flow reconciliation at all.
- Adjusted free cash flow is undefined here and is not a GAAP measure; operating cash flow, which is, was negative $265.3 million in the same half.
- The free-cash-flow guide was cut in the same release that cut leasing EBITDA, so the two moved together rather than one offsetting the other.
C30עובדהhigh confidence
The first-half 2026 operating cash-flow reconciliation removes $177.9 million of gains on asset sales, $17.6 million of gains on sales to the 2025 Partnership and $49.5 million of insurance recoveries from $263.0 million of net income - $245.1 million, or 93%, of the half's profit.
against this
- Selling rebuilt engines is FTAI's business, so a gain on sale is operating profit by nature rather than a one-off; the same reconciliation removed a larger $325.9 million in the first half of 2025.
- The insurance recoveries are genuinely finite - they settle claims on aircraft and engines stranded in Russia - but they are $49.5 million of the $245.1 million, not the bulk of it.
- FTAI itself treats only the partnership sales as outside ordinary activities, accounting for them under ASC 610-20 as non-recurring.
C31עובדהhigh confidence
The $49.5 million of first-half 2026 insurance recoveries settle claims on aircraft and engines located in Russia; eight aircraft and seventeen engines remained in Russia at 31 December 2025.
C33עובדהhigh confidence
FTAI accounts for its aircraft sales to the 2025 Partnership under ASC 610-20 because they were, in its own words, non-recurring in nature and not considered part of the Company's ordinary activities.
C39עובדהhigh confidence
No Form 8-K was filed for the $1.465 billion order; the only 8-K FTAI filed between 29 May and 31 August 2026 is the June-quarter results release.
שאלות פתוחות
- האם שני לקוחות שאחראים למחצית מהכנסות המנועים הם הזמנה חולפת, או שזה האופן שבו העסק עובד מעתה.
- האם טורבינת חשמל שפועלת כל השנה במרכז נתונים צריכה שיפוצים תכופים פי 4 עד 6 מטורבינה שפועלת רק בשעות שיא.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 2 טענות
C28עובדהhigh confidence
Two customers in the Aerospace Products segment were 30% and 20% of revenue in the June 2026 quarter, against two customers at 13% and 10% of total revenue for FY2025.
against this
- The 10-Q says "30% and 20% of its revenue" where the 10-K said "of total revenue"; if the 10-Q denominator is segment rather than company revenue the step-up is smaller than it reads.
- An engine exchange is lumpy: a single large airline programme can land several engines in one quarter, so a quarter-end concentration is not necessarily a run rate. The six-month figures are lower, at 23%, 21% and 13% across three customers.
- Management says Strategic Capital, FTAI's own vehicle, should be about 20% of Aerospace Products revenue, which may be one of the two names and is a related party rather than an external dependency.
C56הסקהmedium confidence
A turbine run as a data centre's primary power accumulates close to 8,760 operating hours a year against the 1,500 to 2,000 typical of peaking duty, so a maintenance interval struck in hours arrives four to six times sooner in that service.
derived8,760 hours is a calendar year; continuous duty approaches it, and peaking duty is a few hours a day on some days. The ratio is arithmetic on those two, not a published interval.
against this
- Maintenance intervals are not set by hours alone: starts, firing temperature, load and site conditions all move them, and a unit run at steady base load is treated more gently per hour than one cycled daily.
- FTAI has published no Mod-1 maintenance interval, overhaul cost or contribution margin, so the frequency cannot be turned into either a cost to the customer or a revenue to FTAI.
- It runs both ways and the company says so: management describes maintenance by exchange, swapping a turbine in under 48 hours, which makes frequent overhauls its own aftermarket rather than only the customer's problem.
מה ישנה את ההערכה שלנו
- ניטרלית→אטרקטיביתתחזית 2027 מפסיקה להיות הבטחה
צריכים להתקיים כל התנאים:
- ○פעילות המנועים שומרת על שיעור רווח של 30% לפחות במשך ארבעה רבעונים רצופים, והמכירות שלה ממשיכות לצמוח ביותר מ-20% בשנה.ייבדק בדוחות הבאים, עד 9 בנובמבר
- ○הטורבינה הראשונה נמסרת ללקוח, וההזמנה של 1.465 מיליארד דולר הופכת להכנסות.במעקב שוטף
- ○המכפיל יורד לכ-15 על הרווח התפעולי, בין אם בגלל ירידה במחיר המניה ובין אם בגלל שרווח 2027 מגיע.≈$99.09 היום, 37% מתחת לסגירה האחרונה
- ניטרלית→לא אטרקטיביתהריכוזיות נשברת לכיוון ההפוך
מספיק אחד מאלה:
- ○אחד משני לקוחות המנועים הגדולים מפסיק לקנות, ומכירות פעילות המנועים יורדות מרבעון לרבעון.ייבדק בדוחות הבאים, עד 9 בנובמבר
- ○החוב נטו נשאר מעל פי 3.0 מהרווח השנתי במשך שני רבעונים, ו-1.0 מיליארד דולר שמגיעים לפירעון במאי 2028 לא מומחזרים.ייבדק בדוחות הבאים, עד 9 בנובמבר
נטעה גם אם
- שיעור הרווח בפעילות המנועים מתייצב מתחת ל-25% שני רבעונים ברצף.
- קצב צמיחת המכירות בפעילות המנועים יורד מתחת ל-20% בשנה שני רבעונים ברצף.
מה בהמשך
- 9 בנובמבר 2026 Q3 2026 Form 10-Q: חלקם של שני הלקוחות הגדולים, התזרים מפעילות שוטפת, המינוף נטו, ואיך ממומנת הרכישה החוזרת המואצת של 500 מיליון דולר.
כל האירועים הצפויים
- 9 בנובמבר 2026 Q3 2026 Form 10-Q: חלקם של שני הלקוחות הגדולים, התזרים מפעילות שוטפת, המינוף נטו, ואיך ממומנת הרכישה החוזרת המואצת של 500 מיליון דולר.
- פברואר 2027 תוצאות הרבעון הרביעי של 2026 ודוח ה-10-K לשנת 2026: האם הושגה תחזית ההנהלה של 1.05 מיליארד דולר למגזר Aerospace Products ב-2026 והמסלול ל-2.3 מיליארד דולר ב-2027 נשמר, וכמה מהרכישה החוזרת בוצעה בזמן שהתזרים מפעילות שוטפת שלילי.
- נובמבר 2027 מועד אספקת המנה האחרונה בהזמנת J&F בהיקף 1.465 מיליארד דולר: האם ההזמנה הראשונה של המיזם המשותף תסופק בזמן, בלי להפעיל את התאמות הביצועים של 10%.
- דצמבר 2027 אספקת טורבינת ההספק הראשונה מדגם Mod-1: האם היחידה הראשונה תסופק ב-2027, כפי שנאמר כעת בהודעת אוקטובר במקום סוף 2026, והאם יחידות נוספות יגיעו אחריה מספיק מהר כדי להגיע לרצפה של 450 מיליון דולר.
- מאי 2028 פירעון האג״ח הבכירות הראשונות: האם 1.0 מיליארד דולר ימוחזרו בתנאי דירוג Ba1, או ייפרעו ממזומנים שהעסק טרם ייצר.
מה קרה מאז
נכתבה
31 באוגוסט
המחיר בעת כתיבת התזה
$175.06
25 בספטמבר
שער סגירה אחרון
$157.59
שער סגירה, · -10.0% מאז
- 29 באוקטוברדוחותשיעור הרווח במנועים נשמר על 31%; הטורבינה הראשונה נדחתה ל-2027Aerospace Products הרוויחה 282.4 מיליון דולר בשיעור של 31% והתחזית אושרה מחדש, אבל אספקת ה-Mod-1 הראשונה נדחתה ל-2027 ונוספה הודעה על רכישה חוזרת מואצת של 500 מיליון דולר.
- 5 באוקטוברבדיקת התזהפיילוט: ההימור מציין עכשיו את המגמה שעליה הוא נשעןהבעלים ביקש שכל הימור יציין את מגמת המאקרו שעומדת מאחוריו, אחרי שבהימור על BWXT חסר הטיעון של המנכ״ל בעד אנרגיה גרעינית על פני גז.
- 4 באוקטוברבדיקת התזהרשימת הבדיקה של הבעלים: מקורות ההכנסה, עלות הצמיחה, ההנהלה, אירועים צפוייםהצ'קליסט של הבעלים מצא ששיטת העבודה לא עוסקת במי שמנהל את החברה, בעלות הצמיחה, במקורות ההכנסה ובאירועים הצפויים. העדכון הזה משלים את ארבעת הנושאים מדוח הזימון לאסיפה (proxy) ומהדוחות לרשות.
- 29 בספטמברחדשותFTAI רוכשת 27 מטוסי 737-700 מ-WestJet, בלי פרסום מחיר; התזה לא השתנתה. ההערכה לא השתנתהFTAI רכשה מ-WestJet 27 מטוסי Boeing 737-700.
- 27 בספטמברבדיקת התזההסכם לחמש שנים לשירותי תחזוקה באסיה וירידה של 8% במניה. ההערכה לא השתנתהGMF AeroAsia הבטיחה ל-FTAI קיבולת בבתי מלאכה למנועים לחמש שנים, בלי לחשוף היקף. המניה ירדה ב-8.2% בתוך שבוע בלי סיבה מוצהרת, למכפיל של כ-25 על הרווח התפעולי.
- 20 בספטמברבדיקת התזהיצרנית המנוע מתארכת את תחילת הירידה בו ל-2029. ההערכה לא השתנתהתזה של משקיע חיצוני הביאה אותנו לבחון את הנושא שוב. לפי תחזית יצרנית המנוע, שוק המנועים צומח עד 2028, ולפעילות החשמל יש עכשיו שתי מתחרות ידועות בשמן. אף אחד מאלה לא משנה את הרווח הקבוצתי, שנותר ללא תנועה.
- 19 בספטמברבדיקת התזהרכישה חוזרת של 500 מיליון דולר מול 337 מיליון דולר במזומן. ההערכה לא השתנתההרכישה החוזרת נשענת על מזומנים שעוד אינם בקופת החברה. שיעור הרווח, הטורבינה הראשונה ושני הלקוחות יוכרעו כולם בדוח של אוקטובר.
- 31 באוגוסטהתזה נכתבהניטרלית, ביטחון בינוניפעילות המנועים צוברת תנופה, אבל הרווח הקבוצתי ב-12 החודשים האחרונים לא זז בעוד ההכנסות צמחו ב-45%. את הפער הזה לא הזכירה אף כותרת של דוח ואף שאלה של אנליסט.
נבדקה גם שלוש פעמים, ללא ממצא חדש שמצריך פעולה.
מקורות 39
Where this came from
Sources - 39
Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.
- S01primarycompany filing2026-02-27Item 1 business description and competitor classes, the shop footprint and PMA joint venture, the Strategic Capital terms, fleet counts including the Russia assets, and FY2025 customer concentrationbacksC01C02C07C17C28C31C40C68C69C73
- S02primarycompany filing2026-07-31the cash flow statement and its presentation note, the customer concentration disclosure, the debt maturity table, the ASC 610-20 treatment of partnership sales and the Russia insurance recoveriesbacksC01C02C07C17C28C29C30C31C32C33C35C68C69C73
- S03primarycompany filing2026-07-29the quarter's statements, the adjusted EBITDA reconciliations for the group and for Aerospace Products, the leasing guidance cut and the 2027 segment guidancebacksC21C23C24C25C35C47
- S04primarytranscript2026-07-30FTAI Aviation Q2 2026 earnings call transcriptmodule output and market share, the 30% margin guide and the mix arithmetic behind it, the Power range and unit assumption, the Strategic Capital share of segment revenue; and twenty analyst turns pressing on margin, the leasing cut and Power accounting
Our market share grew from 12% to 14% this quarter as gains from our production capabilities, parts procurement strategies and overall maintained repair and exchange, MRE, customer adoption continued. ... bringing our total physical CFM56 module production capacity to 3,000 modules per year, which is enough to achieve our 25% market share objective and produce 100 Mod-1s per annum. ... we refurbished 296 CFM56 modules this quarter across our 4 facilities, an increase of 61% compared to Q2 2025. ... we expect margins to be around 30%. ... the $450 million does not assume 100 units. It's materially less than the 100 assumption. ... there are approximately 300 aircraft, so that's 600 engines in the first vehicle. ... Historically we have communicated that the SCI will be about 20% of Aerospace Products revenue.
backsC03C08C18C23C26C27C34C43 - S05primarycompany filing2026-02-25FY2025 adjusted EBITDA of $1,190.9 million, Aerospace Products at $671.3 million, the original 2026 guidance raise to $1.625 billion and the 100-unit 2027 Power production planbacksC24C47
- S06primarycompany release2026-07-22the counterparty description, the five-year master agreement, the payment structure and the 10% cap on downward performance adjustments
J&F Power Systems LLC ("J&F"), FTAI's joint venture with Jereh Group ... has entered into a master gas turbine generator set supply agreement (the "Master Agreement") with a leading international cloud service provider (the "Customer") and signed an initial purchase order under the Master Agreement valued at $1.465 billion (the "Order"). ... J&F will supply Mod-1 mobile gas turbine generator sets supporting the Customer's power infrastructure buildout, with equipment to be delivered in batches through November 2027. The five-year Master Agreement allows the Customer to issue additional purchase orders to expand the relationship. Payments will be made on a milestone basis, beginning with an advance payment at signing ... downward adjustments, capped at 10% of the corresponding equipment's value for lower power output.
backsC16 - S07primarycompany filing2026-01-29GE Aerospace FY2025 Form 10-K GE Aerospacethe installed base, services revenue and its growth attribution, the statement that LEAP will overtake the mature CFM56, the $1 billion MRO capacity investment, and third-party MRO shops named as both customers and key competitorsbacksC10C11C14C19
- S08primarycompany filing2026-02-26StandardAero FY2025 Form 10-K StandardAeroa competitor naming the CFM56 platform as one it is expanding aftermarket services on, and its own description of what it sellsbacksC09C40
- S09primaryregulator2026-01-0114 CFR Part 21 Subpart K - Parts Manufacturer Approvals US Federal Aviation Administrationwhat a Parts Manufacturer Approval actually costs an applicant, from the regulator rather than from the company
Test reports and computations necessary to show that the design of the article meets the airworthiness requirements of this subchapter.
backsC05 - S10primarygovernment data2026-01-13EIA press release - January 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook US Energy Information Administrationthe measured rate behind the demand FTAI Power is being pointed at
EIA expects U.S. electricity use to grow by 1% this year and 3% in 2027. This increase would mark the first time since 2007 that power demand has risen for four years in a row and the strongest four-year growth period since 2000.
backsC20 - S11primarycompany release2025-10-30how rare a hot-section PMA is on this platform, and a CFM56-5B/7B in-service count of over 20,000 engines, from a party outside FTAI
has received Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Parts Manufacturer Approval (PMA) for its CFM56-5B/7B High Pressure Turbine (HPT) Blade. ... Chromalloy's HPT Blade PMA is now the only aftermarket alternative to the original equipment manufacturer (OEM) manufactured new part. ... The CFM56-5B/7B platform has over 20,000 engines in service
backsC06C13 - S12primaryvendor data2026-09-27Research pack, frozen at content/FTAI/research-pack.jsonprice, enterprise value, the analyst panel and its monthly history, the price-target drift, the price-move decomposition, the earnings-surprise history, FINRA short interest, the Form 4 summary and insider base rate, the news reaction to the buyback, the filed competitor cohort and the theme co-movementbacksC37C38C44C46C47C50
- S13primarycompany filing2026-03-10Willis Lease Finance FY2025 Form 10-K Willis Lease Financea listed engine lessor and servicer's own description of the model, and the absence of any CFM56 reference in itbacksC12C40
- S14primarycompany filing2026-03-10AerSale FY2025 Form 10-K AerSalea listed mid-life flight equipment trader's own description of buying, leasing, selling and tearing down aircraft and engines for used serviceable materialbacksC40
- S15primarycompany filing2026-08-31the absence of any 8-K for the $1.465 billion order, and the complete list of what was filed in the windowbacksC39
- S16primarycompany filing2026-05-05the sale sizes, the transaction codes and the weighted-average price range, read from the form rather than from the pack's transcriptionbacksC44
- S17primarycompany release2026-09-15the authorisation amount, its end date, the stated funding source, the absence of any obligation and of any executive statement
The Company expects to fund repurchases under the Share Repurchase Program using cash on its balance sheet.
backsC45 - S18primarycompany filing2026-09-19the absence of any 8-K for the repurchase authorisation, and the list of what was filed since the June 10-Q: Forms 4 and Schedules 13G onlybacksC45
- S19primarycompany filing2026-08-07StandardAero Q2 2026 Form 10-Q StandardAerothe CFM56 expansion named in its annual report now carried as a Dallas, Texas programme with industrialisation costs and a margin dragbacksC09
- S20primarycompany filing2026-02-11Delta Air Lines FY2025 Form 10-K Delta Air Linesan airline's own account of performing engine maintenance in-house and selling it to other airlines - the substitute FTAI's competition section never names
our MRO operation, known as Delta TechOps, provides engine, component, airframe and other maintenance services to aviation and airline customers from around the world
backsC48 - S21primarycompany filing2025-01-21the audit committee review announced in response to the 15 January 2025 short report, the possible delay to the annual report, and the CEO's filed answer on depreciation and on module against whole-engine salesbacksC49
- S22primarycompany filing2025-02-20the finding by independent legal and forensic accounting advisors that the short-seller allegations were without meritbacksC49
- S23primaryvendor data2026-09-19FMP historical daily prices, FTAI, 1 October 2024 to 25 September 2026the closing prices and session moves behind the repricing episodes: the January 2025 falls, the February 2026 high and the June to September 2026 slidebacksC49C50
- S24secondarynews2026-09-16a summary of management's remarks at the 16 September 2026 conference, read through an agent fetch because the transcript itself returns HTTP 403 to every client
$4.7 billion in revenue and $1.4 billion in EBITDA
backsC51 - S25secondarynews2026-02-13Leeham News - Safran hails 'outstanding' 2025; prepares for Airbus ramp-up Leeham News and Analysisthe CFM56 shop-visit count Safran's own site refuses to serve, from its chief executive on the FY2025 results call, with the retirement rate behind it and the 2029 decline date
around 2,300-2,400 shop visits per year from 2025 to 2028, more than 750 additional shop visits over the period than previously forecast ... The 750 additional shop visits referenced represents the comparison to forecasts made at the 2024 Capital Markets Day ... shop visits were expected to start declining from 2029
backsC53 - S26primarycompany release2026-06-08platform-level fleet-age and shop-visit statistics that appear in no filing, from the engine maker's quarterly investor recap
Average fleet age of less than 15 years, with 80% of our shop visits over the next few years from engines less than 20 years of age. ... Most retirements happen after 20 years, limiting the risk if retirements do increase, which is not the current trend or expectation.
backsC54 - S27primarygovernment data2026-03-01FAA Aerospace Forecast, Fiscal Years 2026-2046 US Federal Aviation Administrationa government measurement of the delivery shortfall behind the fleet extension this thesis rides, and the regulator's own expectation of how long it runs
in 2019 Boeing and Airbus delivered a combined 403 commercial widebody aircraft while in 2025, that number was just 233. As airframers are holding sizable order books, the delivery delays will take time to unwind, cascading out through the end of the decade. Besides constraining expansion plans of carriers, these delays will impact profitability as they hold on to older, less efficient aircraft
backsC55 - S28primarycompany filing2026-01-29GE Vernova FY2025 Form 10-K GE Vernovathe incumbent aeroderivative turbine maker's own description of the product, the data-centre demand behind it and the order book it is carryingbacksC57
- S29primarycompany filing2026-02-09Bloom Energy FY2025 Form 10-K Bloom Energya non-combustion competitor's own framing of the customer problem as time to power, and the customers it says it servesbacksC58
- S30primarycompany release2026-09-23GMF AeroAsia and FTAI press release - GMF and FTAI Strengthen Collaboration in Engine Maintenance Business Across Asia-Pacific PT Garuda Maintenance Facility Aero Asia Tbkthe counterparty, the engine types, the five-year capacity guarantee and the stated intent to extend to modules, piece parts and LEAP; no volume, price or value. No Form 8-K carries it; GlobeNewswire closes the connection to scripts, so it was read through an agent fetch and matched against AviTrader's independent account of 25 September
The collaboration will initially cover CFM56-5B and CFM56-7B engines and GTCP131-9 series APUs, with guaranteed capacity for FTAI over the next five years.
backsC59 - S31primarycompany release2026-07-28Safran's own first-half civil spare-parts growth, attributed to CFM56, and the full-year spare-parts outlook raised to up mid-twenties in dollars from mid-teens. safran-group.com still refuses scripts; WebDisclosure is the regulated-information distributor carrying Safran's release verbatim
Civil engine aftermarket activities outperformed expectations, with spare parts sales for civil engines rising by 27.9% (in USD) over the period. This performance was largely driven by CFM56, which benefited from a favorable workscope mix and comparison base.
backsC60 - S32primarygovernment data2024-12-20US Department of Energy press release - DOE Releases New Report Evaluating Increase in Electricity Demand from Data Centers (LBNL 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report) US Department of Energy / Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratorythe government laboratory's range for US data-centre electricity use in 2028, the independent bound on how much new load there is to power at all; read through ir_fetch
The report finds that data centers consumed about 4.4% of total U.S. electricity in 2023 and are expected to consume approximately 6.7 to 12% of total U.S. electricity by 2028. The report indicates that total data center electricity usage climbed from 58 TWh in 2014 to 176 TWh in 2023 and estimates an increase between 325 to 580 TWh by 2028.
backsC61 - S33primaryindustry data2026-06-25SemiAnalysis - US Grid Constraints: Towards 40GW+ of Behind-The-Meter Datacenter by 2028? SemiAnalysisan independent research firm's forecast of US data-centre additions (+21GW in 2026 to +84GW by 2030), the behind-the-meter share from 2028 and a BTM equipment market above 50GW a year by 2029, plus gas-turbine lead times of three to four years; the free preview of a paid report, read through ir_fetch
Our research suggests that BTM will power well over half of new US datacenters in 2028+ , and the Total Addressable Market (TAM) for DC BTM equipment to cross 50GW/ year by 2029.
backsC62 - S34secondaryanalyst2026-05-14RBC Capital Markets insight - Natural gas powers the data center boom RBC Capital Marketsa bank's tally, from Bloomberg and company reports, of announced, ordered and under-construction behind-the-meter gas capacity for US data centres, and of global turbine orders (about 100GW by end-2025) against 60-70GW a year of manufacturing capacity; read through ir_fetch
As of 2026, data center developers have announced approximately 101 gigawatts of behind-the-meter natural gas generation capacity in the United States. While some of these projects may be speculative, over 57 gigawatts have already publicly disclosed equipment orders, and approximately 7 gigawatts are already under construction.
backsC63 - S35primarycompany filing2026-07-22the incumbent turbine maker's gas equipment backlog and slot reservations, its annual turbine output now and in 2028, and the aeroderivative units it booked in the quarterbacksC64
- S36primarycompany release2026-04-16PROENERGY press release - PROENERGY To Deliver Major Generating Equipment To Power Crusoe AI Factories PROENERGY Servicesa direct rival's order: repurposed aero-engine turbine sets sold to a data-centre developer, with unit size and count; read through ir_fetch
SEDALIA, MO, April 16, 2026 - PROENERGY announced today a contract to deliver a manufactured equipment solution for Crusoe, a vertically integrated AI infrastructure provider. The solution features 13 PE6000 aeroderivative gas turbine generator sets, each capable of generating 50 MW.
backsC65 - S37primarytranscript2026-02-26FTAI Aviation Q4 2025 earnings call transcriptthe Mod-1's stated output per unit, efficiency and heat rate, the 100-unit 2027 production target and the planned expansions beyond it; read through transcript_fetch (FMP)
With FTAI Power, we're adapting the world's largest and most reliable engine platform to deliver a 25-megawatt unit that offers grid operators greater flexibility and faster deployment. ... We continue to target 100 units of production in 2027. ... We are estimating a 25-megawatt output. So it puts us in a nice size range with a 35% to 40% efficiency and a 9,000 heat rate.
backsC66 - S38primarycompany filing2026-04-15executive officers and their start dates, beneficial ownership as of 1 April 2026, the 2025 annual incentive plan's metric, goals and payouts, the long-term award design, and the directors' and officers' personal investments in the 2025 PartnershipbacksC70C71C72
- S39primarycompany filing2026-10-29Q3 2026 segment revenue and adjusted EBITDA, module output, group adjusted EBITDA and net income, the $500 million accelerated repurchase and doubled authorisation, the 30 September balance sheet, and the Mod-1 test results and delivery timingbacksC45C74C75C76C77C78