GE Aerospace
יצרנית מנועי הסילון שמוכרת את המנוע ברווחיות נמוכה, ואז מספקת חלקי חילוף מאושרים ושירותי שיפוץ כל עוד המטוס טס.
הציון שלנוניטרלית ביטחון בינוני
הציונים
ציונים · 1-4
צמיחה3/4 ↑
צמיחה מהירה ואורגנית, אבל קצב כזה נמשך רק שנתיים, ותחזית החברה עצמה צופה האטה לכמחצית במחצית השנייה.
איכות העסק4/4 →
שני הגורמים שתוקפים את היתרון שלה מודים בו בדוחות שלהם, והוא שרד את המגיפה ובעיית עמידות שעדיין לא נפתרה.
איתנות פיננסית3/4 →
החוב נטו שווה בערך לתזרים של שנה לפי התחזית, בלי ריכוז פדיונות, אבל התוכנית מחייבת עכשיו חוב חדש לרכישה ב-11.75 מיליארד דולר.
יכולת ביצוע3/4 ↑
שמונה רבעונים מעל התחזיות ושתי העלאות של תחזית החברה, אבל ההחלטה ההונית הגדולה ביותר שקיבלה נתקבלה לפני שלושה ימים ותושלם ב-2027.
ערך לבעלי המניות4/4 →
מספר המניות ירד ב-1.07% בחצי שנה, רכישות חוזרות של 4.22 מיליארד דולר מול הנפקת מניות צנועה, והרכישה משולמת במזומן ולא במניות.
פוטנציאל3/4 →
פוטנציאל מוגבל שברובו מגובה בחוזים (הזמנות שירות בהיקף 178.71 מיליארד דולר לפי הדוחות), ולא פוטנציאל מהפכני או כזה שרק צפוי.
רמת סיכון3/4 →
תלות רצינית אחת, מדווחת וניתנת לשרוד: התחייבויות ביטוח ישנות של 36.2 מיליארד דולר שעשויות לדרוש מזומן, ובלי ריכוז לקוחות בשם.
תמחור2/4 →
המחיר כבר מגלם את התוכנית ואת המהפך בשיעור הרווח ב-2028 שאחריה; אם רק מחצית מזה יתממש, כמעט לא יישאר מרווח.
חוזק הראיות3/4 →
העובדות המרכזיות מופיעות בדוחות ומקבלות חיזוק מדוחות המתחרות, אבל הטענה על שיעור הרווח העתידי היא של ההנהלה ואי אפשר לאמת אותה בשום מקום.
השורה התחתונה
הציון שלנו: ניטרלית. GE Aerospace מוכרת מנועי סילון ברווחיות נמוכה, ואחר כך מספקת להם חלקי חילוף מאושרים ושיפוצים כל עוד המטוס טס, ורוב ההכנסות שלה מגיעות משוק החלפים והשירות הזה. העסק חזק ומוגן היטב, והראיות לכך מבוססות יותר מהנימוקים שהשוק עצמו נותן לו. אבל המחיר מלא: הוא כבר מגלם שיפור בשיעור הרווח שההנהלה צופה רק בעוד כמה שנים ושאף דוח שהוגש עוד לא מראה, כך שהמשקיעים משלמים עליו מראש. ההערכה תלויה בשאלה אם המכירות ימשיכו לצמוח מהר, בזמן שהתחזית של החברה עצמה צופה האטה. זה עסק מצוין, אבל לא נשאר מרווח אם השיפור יתעכב.
הטיעון לטווח הארוךהתעופה ממשיכה לצמוח, וכל מנוע שטס חייב להגיע לחלפים ולשיפוצים בלוח זמנים שחברות התעופה לא קובעות, ולכן GE מרוויחה מכל מנוע עשרות שנים.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 8 טענות
C01עובדהhigh confidence
GE Aerospace's installed base is approximately 50,000 commercial and 30,000 military engines, and aftermarket services are about 70% of revenue.
C06עובדהhigh confidence
GE Aerospace's Q2 2026 total revenue was $13.35B, up 21%, and adjusted revenue was $12.63B, up 24%; the difference is $715M of run-off insurance revenue the company excludes.
C07עובדהhigh confidence
GE Aerospace's Q2 2026 operating profit was $2.75B, up 18%, at a margin of 21.7% against 23.0% a year earlier - so profit grew more slowly than revenue and the margin fell 1.3 percentage points.
C09טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Management says three things are compressing margin - growth in installed engines sold at low margin, LEAP service margins below the services portfolio, and GE9X losses - and expects LEAP service margins in line with the total services portfolio by 2028, GE9X losses to peak by 2028, and margin expansion for the company from 2028 onwards.
against this
- None of it appears in a filing. GE publishes no margin by engine programme, no LEAP services margin and no GE9X loss figure, so there is nothing to check the 2028 turn against and nothing to notice if it slips.
- 2028 is two years beyond the guidance horizon. The same management declined to raise guidance in April 2026 on a strong first quarter, citing uncertainty it could not see through one quarter ahead.
- The chief financial officer also said the external channel will take about 30% of LEAP services by 2030. A third of the work moving to third-party shops is a margin mix change running the other way, and GE publishes no attach rate that would let a reader weigh the two.
- The company has said LEAP services broke even only in 2024, so the starting point of the recovery is recent and the slope is entirely asserted.
C12אומדןmedium confidence
At $324.15 on 2026-09-11, GE Aerospace's market value of $336.33B is $37 for each dollar of the midpoint of the free cash flow guided for 2026, a yield of 2.7%; that cash would have to roughly double for the yield to reach 5% at the same price, and the five-analyst 2030 earnings estimate of $12.98 still leaves the shares at $25 for each dollar of profit four years out.
derivedMarket value and price from the research pack of 2026-09-11; free cash flow midpoint of $9.05B from the guidance range GE issued on 2026-07-16; the 2030 earnings estimate is the vendor panel's, carried in the same pack and struck by five contributors.
against this
- Free cash flow conversion above 100% of adjusted net income is not a steady state and management says it will normalise, so the denominator is currently flattered - which makes the multiple look better than the underlying one, not worse.
- The 2030 estimate rests on five contributors, against twelve for 2028. A four-year-out consensus from five people is a thin base for any statement about what is priced.
- The shares are 16.6% below their 52-week high and the 14-day relative strength index is 34.9, so some of the premium has already come out; the multiple is not being struck at the top.
- GE has no usable multiple history to compare this against - the research pack's prior-year medians span years when the company also owned GE HealthCare and GE Vernova.
C03עובדהhigh confidence
HEICO states in its own annual report that the three principal jet engine makers - General Electric including CFM International, Pratt & Whitney and Rolls-Royce - have historically been the sole source of substantially all replacement parts for their engines.
against this
- The company saying it is the company trying hardest to break it: HEICO exists to sell approved non-OEM parts, has roughly 20,000 approvals and adds 400 to 550 a year.
- The word is 'historically'. HEICO's own filing calls the approval process a barrier to entry rather than a wall, and says the rate at which competitors can bring products to market is limited rather than zero.
- GE is itself widening the channel: its 10-K says it sells spare parts to third-party overhaul shops and licenses maintenance technology to them, so the sole-source position is partly one GE chooses how far to enforce.
C05עובדהhigh confidence
StandardAero, which calls itself the world's largest independent pure-play provider of aerospace engine aftermarket services, holds its authorisations from the engine makers, pays them an authorisation fee and in some cases annual fees and royalties, and was the first independent CFM LEAP Premier MRO provider in the Americas.
against this
- The same filing names a loss of OEM authorisation as a principal risk, which says the licence is revocable and therefore that it is a commercial relationship rather than a permanent tax.
- StandardAero also reports that its authorisations have in the past been renewed or extended at expiration, so in practice the engine maker has not used the leverage the licence gives it.
- It competes for overhaul labour, which is real revenue GE loses when a shop visit goes elsewhere - the royalty does not make GE indifferent to who performs the work.
C13אומדןhigh confidence
GE's October 2026 guidance implies fourth-quarter adjusted revenue growth of roughly 8% to 12% against 18% in the third quarter, and fourth-quarter free cash flow growth of roughly 34% to 51% against a 14% fall in the third quarter.
derivedNine-month 2026 adjusted revenue of $37.53B and free cash flow of $6.73B from the Q3 2026 release, subtracted from the full-year guide (about 19% to 20% growth on the 2025 base of $42.32B; free cash flow of $9.1B-$9.4B) and compared with the fourth quarter of 2025 implied by the FY2025 release ($11.86B of adjusted revenue and $1.77B of free cash flow).
against this
- Management gave the reason unprompted: the second half of 2025 was $3B larger than the first half of 2025, so the comparison base is materially harder rather than the run rate being lower.
- The chief financial officer said more than 95% of Q3 2026 spare-parts revenue was already in backlog and that engines off wing plus planned removals exceed the full-year shop-visit guide by over 40%, which is visibility a conservative guide would carry.
- GE has beaten in each of the last eight quarters, so a guide that implies deceleration has a record of being beaten.
- The Q3 call gave the reason for the 14% fall: working capital was a use, as receivables grew with the timing of services billings and a larger balance due from airframers, partly offset by contract assets. That is timing rather than lower earnings, but it is management's account and the receivable has to be collected in the fourth quarter for the guide to hold.
- 2026-10-20editedThe Q3 2026 print resolved the second-half test; the estimate is re-struck on the October guide for the fourth quarter alone.
- 2026-10-21editedThe Q3 call explained the free cash flow fall as receivables timing; counter-evidence added, estimate unchanged
החברה
מטוס נוסעים נמכר עם המנועים שלו, וחברת GE Aerospace מרוויחה עליהם בעיקר אחר כך. יש לה כ-50,000 מנועים אזרחיים וכ-30,000 מנועים צבאיים בשימוש, וכל אחד מהם צריך חלפים ושיפוצים כל עוד הוא טס.
המנוע הנמכר ביותר שלה למטוסי מעבר יחיד, LEAP, נבנה בידי CFM International, מיזם 50-50 עם Safran, כך ש-Safran לוקחת מחצית מהכלכלה של קו המנועים הזה.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 2 טענות
C01עובדהhigh confidence
GE Aerospace's installed base is approximately 50,000 commercial and 30,000 military engines, and aftermarket services are about 70% of revenue.
C35עובדהhigh confidence
CFM International, which builds the LEAP and the CFM56, is a 50-50 non-consolidated joint venture with Safran Aircraft Engines; GE accounts for it by the equity method and makes substantial sales of parts and services to it.
ממה היא מרוויחה
המנוע הוא כרטיס הכניסה; החלפים הם העסק. חלפים לבדם הם כ-40% מההכנסות, ו-178.71 מיליארד דולר מתוך 210.79 מיליארד דולר של עבודה חוזית ביוני היו שירות ולא מנועים.
גם בתי מלאכה עצמאיים שמשפצים מנועים של GE משלמים ל-GE על הזכות לעשות זאת, באמצעות דמי רישיון ולעיתים תמלוגים.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 3 טענות
C39טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Spare parts are about 40% of GE Aerospace's total revenue, and spare-parts orders grew about 40% year on year through the first two months of Q2 2026 before normalising.
against this
- It exists only on the call. The 10-K and 10-Q disaggregate revenue into equipment and services and never split services into parts and labour, so the 40% cannot be checked against any filed table.
- Management gave the figure while walking back a stronger intra-quarter number it called unsustainable, so the context was a correction rather than a disclosure.
C10עובדהhigh confidence
GE Aerospace's remaining performance obligation was $212.08B at 30 September 2026, of which services $178.75B and equipment $33.34B, up $21.5B or 11% from 31 December 2025; the measure excludes any purchase order the customer can cancel without incurring a substantive penalty.
- 2026-10-20editedRe-sourced to the Q3 2026 10-Q: contracted work rose to $212.08B at 30 September 2026.
C05עובדהhigh confidence
StandardAero, which calls itself the world's largest independent pure-play provider of aerospace engine aftermarket services, holds its authorisations from the engine makers, pays them an authorisation fee and in some cases annual fees and royalties, and was the first independent CFM LEAP Premier MRO provider in the Americas.
against this
- The same filing names a loss of OEM authorisation as a principal risk, which says the licence is revocable and therefore that it is a commercial relationship rather than a permanent tax.
- StandardAero also reports that its authorisations have in the past been renewed or extended at expiration, so in practice the engine maker has not used the leverage the licence gives it.
- It competes for overhaul labour, which is real revenue GE loses when a shop visit goes elsewhere - the royalty does not make GE indifferent to who performs the work.
פירוט מקורות ההכנסה
| מקור | משקל במכירות (המחצית הראשונה של 2026) | איך |
|---|---|---|
| שירותי מנועים אזרחיים | 55.4% | חלפים, שיפוצים והסכמי שירות לצי המנועים האזרחי הפעיל, כולל דמי רישיון מבתי מלאכה עצמאיים. |
| מנועים אזרחיים | 17.1% | מנועי סילון אזרחיים חדשים שנמכרים ליצרניות מטוסים ולחברות תעופה, ברווחיות נמוכה או שלילית. |
| ציוד ביטחוני והנעה | 13.0% | מנועים צבאיים, יחידות אירו-דריוואטיביות (aeroderivative) ורכיבי הנעה, שממומנים ברובם מתקציבי הביטחון של ארה״ב ובעלות בריתה. |
| שירותי ביטחון והנעה | 12.8% | חלפים, תיקונים ותמיכה במנועים צבאיים ובמוצרי הנעה אחרים. |
| ביטוח במצב סגור (run-off) | 5.8% | פרמיות והכנסות מהשקעות מתיק סגור של ביטוח סיעודי וביטוח משנה לקצבאות, שאינם נכללים בהכנסות המתואמות. |
ההנהלה
לארי קאלפ, שניהל את Danaher 14 שנים, נכנס לתפקידו ב-GE ב-2018, פירק אותה לשלוש חברות ומנהל כיום את עסק התעופה שנשאר. בעלי העניין מחזיקים הרבה פחות מ-1% מהמניות, רובן של קאלפ. הבונוס שלו נקבע לפי צמיחת המכירות, הרווח והמזומנים, והמניות לטווח ארוך שלו לפי הרווח למניה והמזומנים בשלוש שנים, בהתאמה לביצועי המניה מול חברות תעשייה אחרות. אף רכיב בשכר לא תלוי בתשואה על ההון.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 3 טענות
C45עובדהhigh confidence
H. Lawrence Culp, Jr., formerly chief executive of Danaher from 2001 to 2014, became chairman and CEO of General Electric in 2018, CEO of GE Aerospace in June 2022 and its chairman in April 2024; Rahul Ghai, formerly CFO of Otis and Harris, has been CFO since August 2022; Mohamed Ali became CEO of Commercial Engines & Services on 1 February 2026.
C43עובדהhigh confidence
At 31 December 2025 GE Aerospace's 16 current directors and executive officers as a group beneficially owned 1,964,879 shares, under 1% of the 1,044,829,602 outstanding at the March 2026 record date; H. Lawrence Culp, Jr. held 1,612,480, the largest insider holding; Vanguard (8.4%), BlackRock (7.9%) and Fidelity (6.4%) were the only holders above 5%. There is one share class.
C44עובדהhigh confidence
GE Aerospace's 2025 annual bonus paid 20% on adjusted revenue growth, 40% on operating profit and 40% on free cash flow, all non-GAAP, from 0% to 200% of target; the CEO's paid $7.52M against a $4.0M target. The 2025 PSUs pay on cumulative three-year adjusted EPS and free cash flow, half each, adjusted up to 20% for shareholder return against the S&P 500 Industrials and capped at 175%; the 2023 PSUs vested at 175%.
against this
- Every metric is a measure GE defines itself (C18): operating profit and free cash flow exclude what the company chooses, so the plan pays on the same non-GAAP figures it guides to.
- Nothing pays on return on capital, so the $11.75B CPP purchase (C16) costs the plan nothing unless it dents three-year EPS or cash.
היתרון התחרותי, ומי מאיים עליו
למה הלקוחות נשארים
כל חלק חילוף שמותקן במנוע סילון דורש אישור ממשלתי למנוע הזה, וכל שיפוץ נעשה לפי מדריך שכותב מתכנן המנוע. ל-GE יש את שניהם, ולחברת תעופה אין אפשרות להחליף מנועים באמצע חיי המטוס.
הראיות מגיעות מהדוחות של המתחרות עצמן. HEICO, שמייצרת עותקים מאושרים, כותבת שיצרניות המנועים היו מבחינה היסטורית המקור היחיד כמעט לכל חלקי החילוף. בית המלאכה העצמאי הגדול בעולם לשיפוצים פועל ברישיון של GE ומשלם לה עליו.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 3 טענות
C03עובדהhigh confidence
HEICO states in its own annual report that the three principal jet engine makers - General Electric including CFM International, Pratt & Whitney and Rolls-Royce - have historically been the sole source of substantially all replacement parts for their engines.
against this
- The company saying it is the company trying hardest to break it: HEICO exists to sell approved non-OEM parts, has roughly 20,000 approvals and adds 400 to 550 a year.
- The word is 'historically'. HEICO's own filing calls the approval process a barrier to entry rather than a wall, and says the rate at which competitors can bring products to market is limited rather than zero.
- GE is itself widening the channel: its 10-K says it sells spare parts to third-party overhaul shops and licenses maintenance technology to them, so the sole-source position is partly one GE chooses how far to enforce.
C05עובדהhigh confidence
StandardAero, which calls itself the world's largest independent pure-play provider of aerospace engine aftermarket services, holds its authorisations from the engine makers, pays them an authorisation fee and in some cases annual fees and royalties, and was the first independent CFM LEAP Premier MRO provider in the Americas.
against this
- The same filing names a loss of OEM authorisation as a principal risk, which says the licence is revocable and therefore that it is a commercial relationship rather than a permanent tax.
- StandardAero also reports that its authorisations have in the past been renewed or extended at expiration, so in practice the engine maker has not used the leverage the licence gives it.
- It competes for overhaul labour, which is real revenue GE loses when a shop visit goes elsewhere - the royalty does not make GE indifferent to who performs the work.
C29עובדהhigh confidence
RTX states in its own 10-K that customers, including governments, may purchase parts from suppliers other than the original equipment manufacturer, which affects spare parts sales.
האיום
העותקים מגיעים, לאט. ל-HEICO כ-20,000 חלקים מאושרים בכל המנועים, היא מוסיפה 400 עד 550 בשנה ומוכרת אותם בזול מהיצרנית. ושלושים שנות מכירת חלפים מתחילות רק אם GE זוכה קודם בהזמנת המנוע: Pratt & Whitney מתחרה על אותם מטוסי Airbus מעבר יחיד.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 2 טענות
C04עובדהmedium confidence
HEICO has developed approximately 20,000 parts carrying FAA Parts Manufacturer Approval and is adding new approvals at roughly 400 to 550 a year.
C28עובדהhigh confidence
RTX's Pratt & Whitney designs, manufactures and services large widebody and narrowbody commercial engines and provides aftermarket overhaul across them, and Airbus is its largest commercial customer at 29% of segment sales in 2025.
המתחרות: HEI, SARO, RTX, ועוד אחת: פרטית, פיתוח פנימי של לקוח או נסחרת בחו״ל.
פירוט המתחרים
| סימול | מתחרה | שלב | בסיס להשוואה |
|---|---|---|---|
| HEI | HEICO Corporationבסיס להשוואה: בתחום אחד בלבד | כבר נמכר | בתחום אחד בלבד |
| SARO | StandardAero, Inc.בסיס להשוואה: בתחום אחד בלבד | כבר נמכר | בתחום אחד בלבד |
| RTX | מנוע geared turbofan מדגם PW1000G של Pratt & Whitney (RTX Corporation)בסיס להשוואה: אותו מוצר | כבר נמכר | אותו מוצר |
| לא נסחרת בבורסה | חומר שמיש משומש: חלקים שנלקחים ממנועי CFM56 שיצאו משירות ונמכרים מחדשבסיס להשוואה: לא נסחר בבורסה | כבר נמכר | לא נסחרת בבורסה |
פוטנציאל הצמיחה
גודל ההזדמנות
Boeing צופה שצי מטוסי הנוסעים בעולם יגדל בכמעט 80%, ליותר מ-50,000 מטוסים עד 2045, ושהתמיכה והשירותים ישוו 4.9 טריליון דולר בעשרים השנים האלה. אלה תחזיות של יצרנית מטוסים.
הפוטנציאל הקרוב כבר באוויר. GE אומרת ש-30% ממנועי ה-CFM56 הישנים יותר עוד לא עברו שיפוץ ראשון ושני שלישים לא עברו שיפוץ שני, ו-70% ממנועי ה-GE90 הגדולים עוד ממתינים לשיפוץ שני.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 3 טענות
C24טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Boeing's 2026 Commercial Market Outlook forecasts the world commercial airplane fleet growing nearly 80% to more than 50,000 airplanes by 2045, needing nearly 44,000 new deliveries, with passenger traffic growing 4% a year and global air traffic doubling between 2026 and 2045.
against this
- Boeing is forecasting the market it sells into, and the forecast is published at an airshow. It is outside GE, not outside the industry.
- The World Bank's measured count of air transport passengers carried was 4.269 billion in 2023, the latest year published, still 4.2% below the 4.456 billion of 2019 - so the measured series had not regained its pre-pandemic peak when the forecast of doubling was written.
- GE itself said first-half 2026 departures were roughly flat and expected only a gradual return to modest growth in the second half.
C25טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Boeing's 2026 Services Market Outlook forecasts a $4.9 trillion commercial aviation support and services market over the twenty years to 2045, alongside demand for more than 2.4 million new aviation professionals including 728,000 maintenance technicians.
against this
- The figure covers the whole services market - pilot and technician training, ground handling, digital tools and airframe maintenance - and GE sells none of those. The engine share of it is not disclosed and Boeing has no reason to break it out.
- It is Boeing's forecast of a market Boeing Global Services competes in, so the issuer is a rival for part of the same spend rather than a neutral measurer.
- The 728,000 technicians the same document calls for is the constraint on it: a services market that cannot be staffed is not a services market that gets billed.
C23טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Management says 30% of the CFM56 fleet has not had a first shop visit and two-thirds have not had a second, that 70% of the GE90 installed base has yet to see a second shop visit, that CFM56 work scopes should stay stable to 2028 or 2029, and that there is hardly any used material in the market with retirements low.
against this
- It is a call figure with no filed counterpart. GE publishes no fleet-age or shop-visit-history table, so neither the 30% nor the two-thirds can be checked.
- The same call flagged airline financial pressure from higher fuel prices, which is the condition under which retirements accelerate and used parts flood the channel - the two statements sit in tension.
- Management also said there are fewer long-term service agreements on CFM56 engines than on widebodies, so a large part of this runway is work GE expects to win rather than work it has contracted.
מי כבר התחייב
העבודה החוזית עמדה על 210.79 מיליארד דולר בסוף יוני, עלייה של 11% מאז דצמבר, והיא כוללת רק הזמנות שלקוח לא יכול לבטל בלי קנס ממשי. העסקאות שבכותרות רכות יותר: ההסכם של IndiGo ליותר מ-1,000 מנועים הוא מזכר הבנות ולא הזמנה מחייבת.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 2 טענות
C10עובדהhigh confidence
GE Aerospace's remaining performance obligation was $212.08B at 30 September 2026, of which services $178.75B and equipment $33.34B, up $21.5B or 11% from 31 December 2025; the measure excludes any purchase order the customer can cancel without incurring a substantive penalty.
- 2026-10-20editedRe-sourced to the Q3 2026 10-Q: contracted work rose to $212.08B at 30 September 2026.
C42עובדהmedium confidence
CFM International signed a memorandum of understanding with IndiGo at the Farnborough Airshow in July 2026 covering more than 1,000 LEAP-1A engines; it is a memorandum rather than a firm order and carries no disclosed price or delivery schedule.
התוצאות
המספרים
היא צומחת?בקצב יציב
המכירות עלו ב-20% ב-12 החודשים שהסתיימו בספטמבר 2026, בערך בקצב של 18% בשנה שהסתיימה בדצמבר 2025.
היא רווחית?כן
מכל מכירה נשארים לחברה 17% כרווח, לעומת 27% בשנה שהסתיימה בדצמבר 2023.
עד כמה היא יציבה?תנודתית
צמיחת המכירות השנתית נעה בין −48% ל-+21% בחמש השנים האחרונות, ובשתיים מהן המכירות ירדו.
התשואה על ההון גבוהה?גבוהה מאוד
התשואה על ההון העצמי עמדה על 50% בשנה, לעומת −19% בשנה שהסתיימה בדצמבר 2021.
היא מייצרת מזומנים?הרבה
15% מהמכירות הפכו לתזרים מזומנים חופשי: 7.99 מיליארד דולר ב-12 החודשים האחרונים.
הרווח הופך למזומן?חלקית
התזרים החופשי היה פי 0.9 מהרווח הנקי.
בעלי המניות מדוללים?לא, מספר המניות יורד
מספר המניות ירד ב-5.2% ב-4.8 שנים.
כל המספרים
נתונים מדוחות ה-10-K וה-10-Q של החברה, נכון ל-20 באוקטובר 2026. שנת הכספים של החברה מסתיימת בדצמבר.
| דצמבר 2021 | דצמבר 2022 | דצמבר 2023 | דצמבר 2024 | דצמבר 2025 | 12 חודשים עד ספטמבר 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| גודל וצמיחה | ||||||
| מכירות | $56.5B | $29.1B | $35.3B | $38.7B | $45.9B | $52.6B |
| צמיחת המכירות | −2.7% | −48% | +21% | +9.5% | +18% | +20% |
| רווח | ||||||
| שיעור הרווח הנקי | −11% | 1.2% | 27% | 17% | 19% | 17% |
| עלות הצמיחה, לכל דולר מכירות | ||||||
| מחקר ופיתוח | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.4% |
| הוצאות מכירה, הנהלה וכלליות | 14% | 13% | 11% | 11% | 8.9% | 8.2% |
| תגמול מבוסס מניות | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | - |
| השקעות הוניות | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.7% |
| מזומנים | ||||||
| תזרים מפעילות שוטפת | −$850M | $4.03B | $4.61B | $5.82B | $8.54B | $9.43B |
| תזרים מזומנים חופשי | −$1.96B | $3.37B | $3.75B | $4.79B | $7.27B | $7.99B |
| מאזן | ||||||
| חוב | $35.1B | $24.1B | $20.5B | $19.3B | $20.5B | $19.3B |
| תשואות ומניות | ||||||
| מספר המניות (בדילול מלא) | 1.10B | 1.10B | 1.10B | 1.09B | 1.07B | 1.04B |
עלות הצמיחה
ההוצאות התפעוליות צומחות לאט מהמכירות, ולכן התקורה לכל דולר זולה יותר. אבל הצמיחה נובעת היום בחלקה ממנועים חדשים שנמכרים מתחת לעלות, ולכן כל מסירה נוספת מורידה את שיעור הרווח עד שהמנועים האלה יחזרו לחלפים ולשיפוצים. גם ההוצאה על מחקר ופיתוח ועל הייצור עולה קצת מהר יותר מהמכירות.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 2 טענות
C47עובדהhigh confidence
Per sales dollar, GE's own R&D (the income-statement line, $1.58B in 2025, excluding customer-funded work) rose from 2.9 cents in 2023 to 3.4 in 2025, capital spending from 2.4 to 2.8 and stock pay from 0.5 to 0.7, while selling, general and administrative costs fell from 11.4 cents to 8.9.
against this
- Total R&D including customer and partner funding was $2.99B in 2025 (C34), about twice the line counted here, so the cost of the next engine generation is larger than the per-dollar figure shows.
- The years before 2023 include businesses since spun off, so the trend is three years long.
C48עובדהhigh confidence
In the first half of 2026 GE's cost of equipment sold was $7,099M against $6,870M of equipment sales, against $5,090M on $5,496M a year earlier, while cost of services fell to 54.7% of services sales from 56.8%.
הדוח האחרון (16 ביולי)
הרבעון שהסתיים ביוני 2026, לפי הדוחות.
21%
צמיחת המכירות
לעומת הרבעון המקביל אשתקד
7.7%
צמיחה לעומת הרבעון הקודם
לעומת −2.6% ברבעון שלפני כן
ברבעון ספטמבר המכירות עלו ב-18% והרווח התפעולי ב-30%, בזכות עסק המנועים: הזמנות המנועים זינקו ב-49% והיקף העבודות החוזיות עלה ל-212 מיליארד דולר. החברה העלתה את תחזית 2026 בכל הסעיפים, בפעם השנייה בתוך שלושה חודשים.
הנקודה החלשה היחידה הייתה תזרים המזומנים החופשי, שירד ב-14% ברבעון, אם כי הוא עדיין גבוה ב-13% בתשעת החודשים הראשונים. כדי לעמוד ביעד המזומנים החדש, הרבעון הרביעי צריך להיות טוב בשליש עד בחצי מהרבעון המקביל אשתקד.
מה זה אומר על התזהצמיחת המכירות עלתה על הרף שקבענו, ושיעור הרווח החזיק טוב יותר מאשר ביוני. ירידה בתזרים המזומנים החופשי הייתה אחד מסימני האזהרה שלנו, ולכן הדוח לא אישש את התזה וגם לא שבר אותה. הציון שלנו נשאר ניטרלית: המחיר עדיין מגלם התאוששות שאף דוח רשמי לא תומך בה.
הרבעון בפירוט
צמיחת המכירות לעומת הרבעון הקודם, לפי הדוחות. החברה תיקנה בדיעבד את הנתונים ההיסטוריים שלה, ולכן רבעונים משני צדי התיקון עשויים לתאר עסק שונה; n/c מסמן רבעון שאין בסיס להשוואתו.
רווח למניה $2.02 לעומת $1.86 צפוי; $2.26 לפי הדוחות, והפער הוא הסעיפים שהחברה מנטרלת.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 5 טענות
C10עובדהhigh confidence
GE Aerospace's remaining performance obligation was $212.08B at 30 September 2026, of which services $178.75B and equipment $33.34B, up $21.5B or 11% from 31 December 2025; the measure excludes any purchase order the customer can cancel without incurring a substantive penalty.
- 2026-10-20editedRe-sourced to the Q3 2026 10-Q: contracted work rose to $212.08B at 30 September 2026.
C11טענת ההנהלהhigh confidence
GE raised its full-year 2026 guidance on 20 October 2026 to adjusted earnings per share of $8.00-$8.10, operating profit of $10.9B-$11.0B, free cash flow of $9.1B-$9.4B and adjusted revenue growth of about 19% to 20%, against 2025 actuals of $6.37, $9.1B, $7.7B and $42.3B. The 16 July guide was $7.65-$7.85, $10.55B-$10.75B and $8.9B-$9.2B.
against this
- The cash guide needs a fourth quarter of free cash flow roughly a third to a half above the fourth quarter of 2025, after the third quarter fell 14%.
- The same guide implies fourth-quarter adjusted revenue growth of roughly 8% to 12% against 18% in the third quarter and 23% over nine months.
- Guidance was deliberately held in April 2026 despite a strong first quarter, then raised in July and again in October. A company that can hold and then raise twice in six months sets guidance with a wide margin, which cuts both ways for what a raise signals.
- 2026-10-20editedThe 20 October 2026 release raised the full-year guidance a second time; the 16 July figures are superseded.
C13אומדןhigh confidence
GE's October 2026 guidance implies fourth-quarter adjusted revenue growth of roughly 8% to 12% against 18% in the third quarter, and fourth-quarter free cash flow growth of roughly 34% to 51% against a 14% fall in the third quarter.
derivedNine-month 2026 adjusted revenue of $37.53B and free cash flow of $6.73B from the Q3 2026 release, subtracted from the full-year guide (about 19% to 20% growth on the 2025 base of $42.32B; free cash flow of $9.1B-$9.4B) and compared with the fourth quarter of 2025 implied by the FY2025 release ($11.86B of adjusted revenue and $1.77B of free cash flow).
against this
- Management gave the reason unprompted: the second half of 2025 was $3B larger than the first half of 2025, so the comparison base is materially harder rather than the run rate being lower.
- The chief financial officer said more than 95% of Q3 2026 spare-parts revenue was already in backlog and that engines off wing plus planned removals exceed the full-year shop-visit guide by over 40%, which is visibility a conservative guide would carry.
- GE has beaten in each of the last eight quarters, so a guide that implies deceleration has a record of being beaten.
- The Q3 call gave the reason for the 14% fall: working capital was a use, as receivables grew with the timing of services billings and a larger balance due from airframers, partly offset by contract assets. That is timing rather than lower earnings, but it is management's account and the receivable has to be collected in the fourth quarter for the guide to hold.
- 2026-10-20editedThe Q3 2026 print resolved the second-half test; the estimate is re-struck on the October guide for the fourth quarter alone.
- 2026-10-21editedThe Q3 call explained the free cash flow fall as receivables timing; counter-evidence added, estimate unchanged
C09טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Management says three things are compressing margin - growth in installed engines sold at low margin, LEAP service margins below the services portfolio, and GE9X losses - and expects LEAP service margins in line with the total services portfolio by 2028, GE9X losses to peak by 2028, and margin expansion for the company from 2028 onwards.
against this
- None of it appears in a filing. GE publishes no margin by engine programme, no LEAP services margin and no GE9X loss figure, so there is nothing to check the 2028 turn against and nothing to notice if it slips.
- 2028 is two years beyond the guidance horizon. The same management declined to raise guidance in April 2026 on a strong first quarter, citing uncertainty it could not see through one quarter ahead.
- The chief financial officer also said the external channel will take about 30% of LEAP services by 2030. A third of the work moving to third-party shops is a margin mix change running the other way, and GE publishes no attach rate that would let a reader weigh the two.
- The company has said LEAP services broke even only in 2024, so the starting point of the recovery is recent and the slope is entirely asserted.
C06עובדהhigh confidence
GE Aerospace's Q2 2026 total revenue was $13.35B, up 21%, and adjusted revenue was $12.63B, up 24%; the difference is $715M of run-off insurance revenue the company excludes.
לאן הלך הכסף
היא קנתה בחזרה 14.1 מיליון מניות ב-4.22 מיליארד דולר במחצית הראשונה והעלתה את הדיבידנד הרבעוני ל-0.47 דולר מ-0.36. בספטמבר היא הסכימה לרכוש את Consolidated Precision Products, יצרנית יציקות, ב-11.75 מיליארד דולר, סכום שווה לקצת יותר מחמישה רבעונים של המזומנים הצפויים לה, בתשלום במזומן ובחוב חדש.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 3 טענות
C30עובדהhigh confidence
GE repurchased 14.1 million shares for $4.22B in the first half of 2026, shares outstanding fell to 1,037,562,513 from 1,048,766,702, $17.98B remained of a $20B authorisation at 30 June 2026, and the quarterly dividend rose to $0.47 from $0.36.
C16עובדהhigh confidence
GE Aerospace agreed on 8 September 2026 to acquire Consolidated Precision Products for $11.75B - a castings maker with about $2.0B of expected 2027 revenue - valuing it at about 26 times expected 2027 earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation before roughly $200M of net synergies and about 18 times after, closing in the second half of 2027, financed with existing cash and new debt, and reaching a double-digit return on invested capital by year five.
sourceGE Aerospace investor presentation on the CPP acquisition,…primaryGE Aerospace press release on the CPP acquisition, Exhibit…primary
against this
- The $2.0B revenue, the $200M of synergies and the year-five return are GE's own projections in its own deal deck. Nothing about them is filed or audited, and no pro forma financial statement for the target exists yet.
- The accretion claim is stated after excluding one-time costs and deal-related amortisation, which is to say it is accretion to a measure that removes most of what an acquisition costs.
- 26 times profit before synergies is close to GE's own enterprise value of 28.4 times trailing profit before depreciation, so GE is paying roughly its own multiple for a foundry - and the shares fell 2.8% the session after the announcement.
- It does not close for a year. Every number in it is a 2027 estimate made in 2026, and GE has no post-separation record of integrating a purchase this size.
C17אומדןhigh confidence
The $11.75B price for Consolidated Precision Products is about 1.3 times the free cash flow GE guides for 2026, or a little over five quarters of it.
derived$11.75B from the deal announcement divided by the $8.9B-$9.2B 2026 free cash flow guide, midpoint $9.05B - 1.30 times the year, or 5.2 quarters at the average quarterly rate.
against this
- The cash goes out once and over a period, not in a year: closing is expected in the second half of 2027, and GE says the purchase uses existing cash and new debt rather than a year of operating cash flow.
- GE says capital allocation plans do not change, and $17.98B of a $20B buyback authorisation remained at 30 June 2026 - so the company does not regard the deal as consuming the shareholder return.
- Net borrowings of about $8.9B against guided cash of $9.05B leave real capacity; the ratio is a way of sizing the decision, not evidence that GE cannot afford it.
המחיר, ואיפה אנחנו חלוקים על השוק
בקצרה. מלא. עסק מצוין, אבל המחיר כבר מגלם שההתאוששות ברווח תגיע בזמן עד 2028, ולא משאיר מרווח אם היא תתאחר.
מחיר המניה
$324.15
שער סגירה,
תזרים מזומנים חופשי כשיעור מהמחיר
2.5%
התשואה המקובלת בשש השנים האחרונות: 2.7%
התחזית של החברה עצמה מניחה עכשיו רבעון רביעי חזק יותר במזומנים וחלש יותר במכירות. הדוח השנתי של ינואר יענה על כך: תזרים מזומנים חופשי בתחתית טווח התחזית או מעליה יאשר את העלאת התחזית, ואילו החמצה תראה שהירידה בספטמבר הייתה תחילתה של מגמה.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 2 טענות
C13אומדןhigh confidence
GE's October 2026 guidance implies fourth-quarter adjusted revenue growth of roughly 8% to 12% against 18% in the third quarter, and fourth-quarter free cash flow growth of roughly 34% to 51% against a 14% fall in the third quarter.
derivedNine-month 2026 adjusted revenue of $37.53B and free cash flow of $6.73B from the Q3 2026 release, subtracted from the full-year guide (about 19% to 20% growth on the 2025 base of $42.32B; free cash flow of $9.1B-$9.4B) and compared with the fourth quarter of 2025 implied by the FY2025 release ($11.86B of adjusted revenue and $1.77B of free cash flow).
against this
- Management gave the reason unprompted: the second half of 2025 was $3B larger than the first half of 2025, so the comparison base is materially harder rather than the run rate being lower.
- The chief financial officer said more than 95% of Q3 2026 spare-parts revenue was already in backlog and that engines off wing plus planned removals exceed the full-year shop-visit guide by over 40%, which is visibility a conservative guide would carry.
- GE has beaten in each of the last eight quarters, so a guide that implies deceleration has a record of being beaten.
- The Q3 call gave the reason for the 14% fall: working capital was a use, as receivables grew with the timing of services billings and a larger balance due from airframers, partly offset by contract assets. That is timing rather than lower earnings, but it is management's account and the receivable has to be collected in the fourth quarter for the guide to hold.
- 2026-10-20editedThe Q3 2026 print resolved the second-half test; the estimate is re-struck on the October guide for the fourth quarter alone.
- 2026-10-21editedThe Q3 call explained the free cash flow fall as receivables timing; counter-evidence added, estimate unchanged
C11טענת ההנהלהhigh confidence
GE raised its full-year 2026 guidance on 20 October 2026 to adjusted earnings per share of $8.00-$8.10, operating profit of $10.9B-$11.0B, free cash flow of $9.1B-$9.4B and adjusted revenue growth of about 19% to 20%, against 2025 actuals of $6.37, $9.1B, $7.7B and $42.3B. The 16 July guide was $7.65-$7.85, $10.55B-$10.75B and $8.9B-$9.2B.
against this
- The cash guide needs a fourth quarter of free cash flow roughly a third to a half above the fourth quarter of 2025, after the third quarter fell 14%.
- The same guide implies fourth-quarter adjusted revenue growth of roughly 8% to 12% against 18% in the third quarter and 23% over nine months.
- Guidance was deliberately held in April 2026 despite a strong first quarter, then raised in July and again in October. A company that can hold and then raise twice in six months sets guidance with a wide margin, which cuts both ways for what a raise signals.
- 2026-10-20editedThe 20 October 2026 release raised the full-year guidance a second time; the 16 July figures are superseded.
איך לקרוא את המכפיל
המזומנים הפנויים בכל שנה, מה שנשאר אחרי הפעילות וההשקעה בעסק, הם כ-2.5% ממחיר היום. על המזומנים הגבוהים יותר שצפויים ל-2026, זה מכפיל של 37.
כדי שהמחיר ייראה זול:
- המזומנים הפנויים צריכים לגדול בערך פי שניים כדי להגיע ל-5% ממחיר היום.
- גם לפי תחזית האנליסטים ל-2030, המכפיל על הרווח עדיין יעמוד על 25.
- לכן המחיר כבר מניח שההתאוששות בשיעור הרווח הצפויה מ-2028 תגיע בזמן.
מול ההיסטוריה שלה. זו אינה השוואה הוגנת: השנים האלה כוללות את GE HealthCare ואת GE Vernova, שהופרדו מאז, ולכן אי אפשר לקרוא מהן את הנורמה של החברה הנוכחית.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 3 טענות
C12אומדןmedium confidence
At $324.15 on 2026-09-11, GE Aerospace's market value of $336.33B is $37 for each dollar of the midpoint of the free cash flow guided for 2026, a yield of 2.7%; that cash would have to roughly double for the yield to reach 5% at the same price, and the five-analyst 2030 earnings estimate of $12.98 still leaves the shares at $25 for each dollar of profit four years out.
derivedMarket value and price from the research pack of 2026-09-11; free cash flow midpoint of $9.05B from the guidance range GE issued on 2026-07-16; the 2030 earnings estimate is the vendor panel's, carried in the same pack and struck by five contributors.
against this
- Free cash flow conversion above 100% of adjusted net income is not a steady state and management says it will normalise, so the denominator is currently flattered - which makes the multiple look better than the underlying one, not worse.
- The 2030 estimate rests on five contributors, against twelve for 2028. A four-year-out consensus from five people is a thin base for any statement about what is priced.
- The shares are 16.6% below their 52-week high and the 14-day relative strength index is 34.9, so some of the premium has already come out; the multiple is not being struck at the top.
- GE has no usable multiple history to compare this against - the research pack's prior-year medians span years when the company also owned GE HealthCare and GE Vernova.
C09טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Management says three things are compressing margin - growth in installed engines sold at low margin, LEAP service margins below the services portfolio, and GE9X losses - and expects LEAP service margins in line with the total services portfolio by 2028, GE9X losses to peak by 2028, and margin expansion for the company from 2028 onwards.
against this
- None of it appears in a filing. GE publishes no margin by engine programme, no LEAP services margin and no GE9X loss figure, so there is nothing to check the 2028 turn against and nothing to notice if it slips.
- 2028 is two years beyond the guidance horizon. The same management declined to raise guidance in April 2026 on a strong first quarter, citing uncertainty it could not see through one quarter ahead.
- The chief financial officer also said the external channel will take about 30% of LEAP services by 2030. A third of the work moving to third-party shops is a margin mix change running the other way, and GE publishes no attach rate that would let a reader weigh the two.
- The company has said LEAP services broke even only in 2024, so the starting point of the recovery is recent and the slope is entirely asserted.
C20עובדהhigh confidence
GE Aerospace has no usable multi-year multiple history: the research pack's prior-year medians are struck across fiscal years in which the company also owned GE HealthCare and GE Vernova, with FY2021 revenue of $56.47B and FY2022 of $29.14B against FY2025 of $45.86B.
המכפיל מול המתחרים
רק RTX מוכרת את אותו מוצר לאותם קונים בחלק גדול מפעילותה. השוואת מחיר דורשת לפחות שתי חברות, ולכן המחיר נבחן מול ההיסטוריה של GE עצמה.
מתחרות פרטיות או זרות שאין להן מחיר להשוואה: Rolls-Royce Holdings plc, Safran S.A. (Safran Aircraft Engines), MTU Aero Engines AG, Lufthansa Technik AG.
איפה אנחנו חלוקים על השוק
השוק חושב
עסק מוגן שצבר התחזוקה שלו וההתאוששות המובטחת בשיעור הרווח מצדיקים מכפיל גבוה בהרבה מזה של רוב חברות התעשייה.
אנחנו חושבים
ההגנה אמיתית והראיות לה חזקות יותר מהנימוקים של השוק, אבל המחיר כבר מגלם התאוששות שאף דוח לא כולל.
בין האנליסטים 24 ממליצים לקנות ו-11 להחזיק, ואף אחד לא למכור, ו-GE עקפה את הערכותיהם שמונה רבעונים ברציפות. הסיקור מתמקד בצבר ובתוצאות שמעל התחזיות; אנחנו קראנו את הדוחות של שתי מתחרות כדי לבדוק את היתרון התחרותי, ואת החישוב של המחצית השנייה כדי לבדוק את הצמיחה.
נטעה אם המכירות ברבעון ספטמבר יצמחו ביותר מ-12% ושיעור הרווח יתרחב: אז ההאטה הייתה זהירות, ולא הקצב האמיתי.
מה אומרים האנליסטים
הראיות (באנגלית) · 4 טענות
C32עובדהhigh confidence
GE has beaten the vendor panel's earnings estimate in each of the last eight reported quarters, the narrowest by 8.6%, and raised its 2026 guidance on every line in July 2026 after declining to raise it in April 2026.
C03עובדהhigh confidence
HEICO states in its own annual report that the three principal jet engine makers - General Electric including CFM International, Pratt & Whitney and Rolls-Royce - have historically been the sole source of substantially all replacement parts for their engines.
against this
- The company saying it is the company trying hardest to break it: HEICO exists to sell approved non-OEM parts, has roughly 20,000 approvals and adds 400 to 550 a year.
- The word is 'historically'. HEICO's own filing calls the approval process a barrier to entry rather than a wall, and says the rate at which competitors can bring products to market is limited rather than zero.
- GE is itself widening the channel: its 10-K says it sells spare parts to third-party overhaul shops and licenses maintenance technology to them, so the sole-source position is partly one GE chooses how far to enforce.
C05עובדהhigh confidence
StandardAero, which calls itself the world's largest independent pure-play provider of aerospace engine aftermarket services, holds its authorisations from the engine makers, pays them an authorisation fee and in some cases annual fees and royalties, and was the first independent CFM LEAP Premier MRO provider in the Americas.
against this
- The same filing names a loss of OEM authorisation as a principal risk, which says the licence is revocable and therefore that it is a commercial relationship rather than a permanent tax.
- StandardAero also reports that its authorisations have in the past been renewed or extended at expiration, so in practice the engine maker has not used the leverage the licence gives it.
- It competes for overhaul labour, which is real revenue GE loses when a shop visit goes elsewhere - the royalty does not make GE indifferent to who performs the work.
C13אומדןhigh confidence
GE's October 2026 guidance implies fourth-quarter adjusted revenue growth of roughly 8% to 12% against 18% in the third quarter, and fourth-quarter free cash flow growth of roughly 34% to 51% against a 14% fall in the third quarter.
derivedNine-month 2026 adjusted revenue of $37.53B and free cash flow of $6.73B from the Q3 2026 release, subtracted from the full-year guide (about 19% to 20% growth on the 2025 base of $42.32B; free cash flow of $9.1B-$9.4B) and compared with the fourth quarter of 2025 implied by the FY2025 release ($11.86B of adjusted revenue and $1.77B of free cash flow).
against this
- Management gave the reason unprompted: the second half of 2025 was $3B larger than the first half of 2025, so the comparison base is materially harder rather than the run rate being lower.
- The chief financial officer said more than 95% of Q3 2026 spare-parts revenue was already in backlog and that engines off wing plus planned removals exceed the full-year shop-visit guide by over 40%, which is visibility a conservative guide would carry.
- GE has beaten in each of the last eight quarters, so a guide that implies deceleration has a record of being beaten.
- The Q3 call gave the reason for the 14% fall: working capital was a use, as receivables grew with the timing of services billings and a larger balance due from airframers, partly offset by contract assets. That is timing rather than lower earnings, but it is management's account and the receivable has to be collected in the fourth quarter for the guide to hold.
- 2026-10-20editedThe Q3 2026 print resolved the second-half test; the estimate is re-struck on the October guide for the fourth quarter alone.
- 2026-10-21editedThe Q3 call explained the free cash flow fall as receivables timing; counter-evidence added, estimate unchanged
מה יכול להשתבש, ואיך נדע
הסיכונים
- עותקים תופסים נתח. חלקים חיצוניים מאושרים ובתי מלאכה עצמאיים מכרסמים בדבר היחיד שהיתרון מגן עליו: החלפים של GE במנועים של GE.
- עסק ביטוח ישן. התחייבויות ביטוח ישנות של 36.20 מיליארד דולר מול הון עצמי של 17.64 מיליארד דולר, ו-GE מציינת קריאות הון עתידיות כסיכון.
- התאוששות שרק ההנהלה מבטיחה. שיפור בשיעורי הרווח משירות LEAP ושיא ההפסדים של GE9X עד 2028 נאמרו בשיחת הרווחים, ולא מופיעים בדוח.
- חלקים בחסר. משלוחי חלפים שנדחו מחוסר חומר גדלו ב-20% לעומת הרבעון הקודם, ביוני.
- טיסות ללא גידול. מספר ההמראות היה שטוח בערך במחצית הראשונה של 2026, וההכנסות הולכות אחרי הטיסות.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 7 טענות
C04עובדהmedium confidence
HEICO has developed approximately 20,000 parts carrying FAA Parts Manufacturer Approval and is adding new approvals at roughly 400 to 550 a year.
C05עובדהhigh confidence
StandardAero, which calls itself the world's largest independent pure-play provider of aerospace engine aftermarket services, holds its authorisations from the engine makers, pays them an authorisation fee and in some cases annual fees and royalties, and was the first independent CFM LEAP Premier MRO provider in the Americas.
against this
- The same filing names a loss of OEM authorisation as a principal risk, which says the licence is revocable and therefore that it is a commercial relationship rather than a permanent tax.
- StandardAero also reports that its authorisations have in the past been renewed or extended at expiration, so in practice the engine maker has not used the leverage the licence gives it.
- It competes for overhaul labour, which is real revenue GE loses when a shop visit goes elsewhere - the royalty does not make GE indifferent to who performs the work.
C22טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Management says the external channel has risen from under 10% of GE's LEAP services portfolio to the mid-teens and should reach about 30% by 2030, and GE's own 10-K confirms it sells spare parts to third-party overhaul shops and licenses maintenance technology to them.
sourceGE Aerospace second quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimaryGE Aerospace Form 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025primary
against this
- A third of LEAP services performed outside GE's shops is a third of the labour margin leaving, and GE publishes no parts attach rate that would show the parts margin staying behind to replace it.
- StandardAero's own filing shows the other side of the same arrangement and names loss of an OEM authorisation as a principal risk - so the channel is GE's to control today, and GE is choosing to widen it while the aftermarket is capacity-constrained.
- GE's shops are 40% oversubscribed, so widening the external channel now is partly a response to not being able to do the work, which is a weaker reason than choosing the higher-margin half.
C14עובדהhigh confidence
GE Aerospace carries $36.20B of insurance liabilities and annuity benefits at 30 June 2026 against total shareholders' equity of $17.64B; the run-off operation earned $992M before tax in 2025 and $171M in Q2 2026, and GE names the amount and timing of any required future capital contributions to it as a risk.
C09טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Management says three things are compressing margin - growth in installed engines sold at low margin, LEAP service margins below the services portfolio, and GE9X losses - and expects LEAP service margins in line with the total services portfolio by 2028, GE9X losses to peak by 2028, and margin expansion for the company from 2028 onwards.
against this
- None of it appears in a filing. GE publishes no margin by engine programme, no LEAP services margin and no GE9X loss figure, so there is nothing to check the 2028 turn against and nothing to notice if it slips.
- 2028 is two years beyond the guidance horizon. The same management declined to raise guidance in April 2026 on a strong first quarter, citing uncertainty it could not see through one quarter ahead.
- The chief financial officer also said the external channel will take about 30% of LEAP services by 2030. A third of the work moving to third-party shops is a margin mix change running the other way, and GE publishes no attach rate that would let a reader weigh the two.
- The company has said LEAP services broke even only in 2024, so the starting point of the recovery is recent and the slope is entirely asserted.
C33טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Spare-parts delinquencies - shipments delayed by material availability - grew 20% sequentially in Q2 2026, GE's internal shop capacity is 40% oversubscribed for the year, and engines already off wing plus planned Q3 removals exceed the full-year shop-visit guide by more than 40%. In Q3 2026 the call said delinquency grew again, 'up slightly', while orders rose 23% and about 95% of fourth-quarter revenue was already in backlog.
sourceGE Aerospace second quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimaryGE Aerospace second quarter 2026 results release, Exhibit 99…primaryGE Aerospace third quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary
against this
- The same fact is a delivery failure as well as a demand signal: GE has sold parts it cannot ship, and the delinquency grew in a quarter it was calling record output.
- It is unaudited and appears in no filing. The 10-Q describes material availability disruptions qualitatively and puts no number on the backlog of late shipments.
- The chief executive said spare-parts order growth had already normalised from an unsustainable 40% rate in the last weeks of the quarter, so the demand half of the figure was measured at a peak.
- The Q3 call confirmed delinquency rose a second quarter running, which is the 'rising again' mark the next test names; management called it a function of strong demand and said it wants to bring it down in 2027, with no figure given for the size of the backlog of late shipments.
- 2026-10-21editedThe Q3 2026 call, read on 21 October, said spare-parts delinquency grew again in the quarter; the claim now carries the second reading
C27טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
GE said first-half 2026 departures were roughly flat, that it has observed no change in customer behaviour, and that it expects a gradual return to modest departures growth in the second half.
against this
- The 10-Q names the conflict in the Middle East as a risk to utilisation, prices and airline credit, and says lower shop visit, spare part and spare engine volume could follow - management's confidence and its own filed risk disclosure point different ways.
- Flat departures with services revenue up 32% means the growth is coming from deferred maintenance and material availability rather than from flying, which is a catch-up rather than a rate.
שאלות פתוחות
- האם שיעורי הרווח משירות LEAP יגיעו ליתר עסק השירות עד 2028. רק דברי ההנהלה אומרים כך.
- כמה ירוויח רכישת היציקות ב-11.75 מיליארד דולר. ההנהלה מבטיחה תשואה של לפחות 10% עליה עד השנה החמישית.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 2 טענות
C09טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Management says three things are compressing margin - growth in installed engines sold at low margin, LEAP service margins below the services portfolio, and GE9X losses - and expects LEAP service margins in line with the total services portfolio by 2028, GE9X losses to peak by 2028, and margin expansion for the company from 2028 onwards.
against this
- None of it appears in a filing. GE publishes no margin by engine programme, no LEAP services margin and no GE9X loss figure, so there is nothing to check the 2028 turn against and nothing to notice if it slips.
- 2028 is two years beyond the guidance horizon. The same management declined to raise guidance in April 2026 on a strong first quarter, citing uncertainty it could not see through one quarter ahead.
- The chief financial officer also said the external channel will take about 30% of LEAP services by 2030. A third of the work moving to third-party shops is a margin mix change running the other way, and GE publishes no attach rate that would let a reader weigh the two.
- The company has said LEAP services broke even only in 2024, so the starting point of the recovery is recent and the slope is entirely asserted.
C16עובדהhigh confidence
GE Aerospace agreed on 8 September 2026 to acquire Consolidated Precision Products for $11.75B - a castings maker with about $2.0B of expected 2027 revenue - valuing it at about 26 times expected 2027 earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation before roughly $200M of net synergies and about 18 times after, closing in the second half of 2027, financed with existing cash and new debt, and reaching a double-digit return on invested capital by year five.
sourceGE Aerospace investor presentation on the CPP acquisition,…primaryGE Aerospace press release on the CPP acquisition, Exhibit…primary
against this
- The $2.0B revenue, the $200M of synergies and the year-five return are GE's own projections in its own deal deck. Nothing about them is filed or audited, and no pro forma financial statement for the target exists yet.
- The accretion claim is stated after excluding one-time costs and deal-related amortisation, which is to say it is accretion to a measure that removes most of what an acquisition costs.
- 26 times profit before synergies is close to GE's own enterprise value of 28.4 times trailing profit before depreciation, so GE is paying roughly its own multiple for a foundry - and the shares fell 2.8% the session after the announcement.
- It does not close for a year. Every number in it is a 2027 estimate made in 2026, and GE has no post-separation record of integrating a purchase this size.
מה ישנה את ההערכה שלנו
- ניטרלית→אטרקטיביתהשירותים הופכים לרווח במחיר שלא מגלם שלושים שנה קדימה
נדרשים כל אלה:
- ○מכירות השירות המסחרי ממשיכות לצמוח ביותר מ-10%, שיעורי הרווח בשירות מנועי LEAP מצמצמים את הפער עד סוף 2028, והפסדי GE9X מגיעים לשיאם ב-2028.ייבדק בדוח הבא, שצפוי בינואר 2027
- ○המניה נסחרת במכפיל של כ-22 על תזרים המזומנים החופשי שבתחזית ל-2026, תשואה של 4.5%.כ-192.74 דולר היום, 41% מתחת לסגירה האחרונה
- ניטרלית→לא אטרקטיביתמישהו אחר מספק את החלקים
מספיק אחד מאלה:
- ○חלקים חיצוניים מאושרים או בתי מלאכה עצמאיים תופסים נתח גלוי משיפוצי מנועי GE.במעקב שוטף
- ○עסק הביטוח הישן זקוק להון חדש מעסק התעופה.במעקב שוטף
נטעה גם אם
- צמיחת השירותים האזרחיים יורדת מתחת ל-10% בשני רבעונים ברציפות, בלי הסבר שקשור לאספקה.
מה בהמשך
- ינואר 2027 תוצאות הרבעון הרביעי של 2026 ותחזית 2027: האם 2026 תסתיים בתוך התחזית המועלית, והאם התחזית ל-2027 משאירה את ההתאוששות בשיעור הרווח בלוח הזמנים שההנהלה קבעה ל-2028.
כל האירועים הצפויים
- ינואר 2027 תוצאות הרבעון הרביעי של 2026 ותחזית 2027: האם 2026 תסתיים בתוך התחזית המועלית, והאם התחזית ל-2027 משאירה את ההתאוששות בשיעור הרווח בלוח הזמנים שההנהלה קבעה ל-2028.
- דצמבר 2027 השלמת רכישת CPP: האם רכישת היציקות ב-11.75 מיליארד דולר תושלם בתנאים שסוכמו וכמה חוב חדש היא תדרוש, המבחן הראשון של הקצאת ההון שלה כחברה עצמאית.
מה קרה מאז
נכתבה
11 בספטמבר
המחיר בעת כתיבת התזה
$324.15
10 בספטמבר
- 21 באוקטוברדוחותהשיחה הסבירה את הירידה במזומנים ונתנה תחזית ל-2027ההנהלה ייחסה את הירידה במזומנים לתזמון החיוב, אמרה שמשלוחי חלפים מאחרים שוב גדלו, והעריכה שהשירותים יצמחו ב-2027 בשיעור דו-ספרתי נמוך. ההערכה לא השתנתה.
- 20 באוקטוברדוחותהמכירות עלו ב-18%, התחזית הועלתה שוב, תזרים המזומנים ירד ב-14%הדוח עלה על הרף שנקבע להכנסות ולשיעור הרווח, אבל הירידה בתזרים המזומנים החופשי הייתה סימן לחץ, ולכן הציון נשאר ניטרלית.
- 5 באוקטוברבדיקת התזההטיעון בעד ההשקעה מופיע עכשיו מתחת לשורה התחתונההבעלים ביקש לבחון את הטיעון לטווח הארוך בחמש תזות ללא הימור, לפני שיחליט לגבי השאר.
- 4 באוקטוברבדיקת התזהרשימת הבדיקות של הבעלים: מקורות ההכנסה, עלות הצמיחה, ההנהלה, אירועים צפוייםרשימת הבדיקות של הבעלים הראתה שהשיטה שותקת בשאלות מי מנהל את החברה, כמה עולה הצמיחה, מאיפה מגיע הכסף ואילו אירועים צפויים בתאריכים ידועים. בסבב הזה מילאנו את ארבעת הנושאים מתוך דוח הזימון לאסיפה והדוחות.
- 11 בספטמברהתזה נכתבהניטרלית, ביטחון בינוניאחד העסקים הטובים בתעשייה, במחיר שכבר מגלם התאוששות בשיעור הרווח שההנהלה מתארכת ל-2028 ואף דוח לא כולל.
נבדקה גם 5 פעמים, ללא ממצא חדש שמצריך פעולה.
מקורות 23
Where this came from
Sources - 23
Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.
- S01primarycompany filing2026-01-29the installed base and the 70% aftermarket share, the segment split, the Competition section naming no company, the CFM International joint-venture structure, the run-off insurance description, the research and development split, and the absence of any disclosed customer concentrationbacksC01C02C14C19C20C22C34C35C40C46C47
- S02primarycompany filing2026-07-16remaining performance obligation and its cancellation definition, borrowings and liquidity, the share count and buybacks, insurance liabilities of $36.20B, the Corporate & Other reconciliation that explains the segment shortfall, and the tariff refundbacksC06C14C30C31C37C48C49
- S03primarycompany filing2026-07-16the quarter's revenue, operating profit and margin by segment, the raised full-year guidance on every line, and the adjusted net income reconciliation showing GAAP earnings per share above the adjusted figurebacksC06C07C08C15C18C32C33C41
- S04primarytranscript2026-07-16the three named causes of margin compression and the 2028 dates attached to them; the LEAP shop-visit and external-channel paths; the CFM56 and GE90 shop-visit runway; delinquencies and shop capacity; sixteen analyst turns from eleven analysts, of which the questions are a separate origin from the answers
Our external channel has gone from sub 10% of our overall LEAP services portfolio to call it mid-teens right now, and we expect that to grow to, say, 30% by the time we get to 2030. || When you look at the CFM56, even obviously the legacy narrow body platform, it's still a relatively young fleet, and we'd argue with a lot of life left in it. There are fewer long-term service agreements on those engines than we would see in the wide body segment. 30% of that fleet hasn't seen the first shop visit. 2/3 haven't even seen the second shop visit. || you look at the GE90, for example, 70% of that installed base has yet to see shop visit two, which has a significant step up in work scope. || Overall, the CFM56 work scopes should remain stable from now till 2028, 2029, because there's hardly any used material in the market, the retirements are low. || First-half departures were roughly flat, but we have not observed any changes in customer behavior. We expect a gradual return to modest departures growth in the second half.
backsC09C21C22C23C27C33C37C39 - S05primarycompany filing2026-01-22the 2025 statement of operations including the insurance revenue line, full-year adjusted revenue of $42.32B, operating profit of $9.1B, adjusted earnings per share of $6.37 and free cash flow of $7.7B - the base every second-half comparison in this thesis is struck againstread, but no claim rests on it
- S06primarycompany filing2026-09-08the $11.75B price, about $2.0B of 2027 expected revenue, about 26 times 2027 profit before synergies and 18 times after, roughly $200M of net synergies, the second-half-2027 close and the year-five return promisebacksC16
- S07primarycompany filing2026-09-08the sellers (Warburg Pincus and Berkshire Partners), CPP's description as one of the world's largest producers of investment and precision sand castings, and the fifteen-year supply relationshipbacksC16
- S08primarycompany filing2025-12-22HEICO Corporation Form 10-K for the year ended 31 October 2025 HEICO Corporationthe attacker's own statement that the three engine makers have been the sole source of substantially all replacement parts for their engines, the roughly 20,000 approvals it holds, the 400 to 550 a year it adds, and its description of the approval process as a barrier to entrybacksC03C04
- S09primarycompany filing2026-02-26StandardAero, Inc. Form 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025 StandardAero, Inc.the largest independent overhaul company's statement that it works under licence from the engine makers, pays authorisation fees and in some cases annual fees and royalties, was the first independent LEAP Premier MRO in the Americas, and treats loss of an authorisation as a principal riskbacksC05
- S10primarycompany filing2026-02-06RTX Corporation Form 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025 RTX Corporationa rival engine maker's description of the same product and aftermarket, Airbus at 29% of Pratt & Whitney segment sales, the Pratt & Whitney backlog of $151B within RTX's $268B, and the statement that customers may buy parts from suppliers other than the original equipment makerbacksC28C29
- S11primaryindustry data2026-07-18Boeing 2026 Commercial Market Outlook, company news release The Boeing Companythe base for the prize, counted in aircraft by an airframer rather than by GE, and the forward traffic rate in machine.current
Boeing released its 2026 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO), forecasting that operators will need nearly 44,000 new airplanes to support sustained air travel demand and air cargo expansion over the next 20 years. The global commercial airplane fleet is expected to grow nearly 80% to more than 50,000 airplanes by 2045 as airlines and cargo operators add capacity... Passenger traffic is expected to grow 4% annually, resulting in a doubling of global air traffic between 2026 and 2045.
backsC24 - S12primaryindustry data2026-07-18Boeing 2026 Services Market Outlook and Pilot & Technician Outlook, company news release The Boeing Companythe bound on the prize, and the technician constraint - 728,000 maintenance technicians needed through 2045 - that limits how much of it can be billed
Boeing projects $4.9 trillion aviation services market and demand for more than 2.4 million commercial aviation professionals through 2045... Over the next two decades, Boeing forecasts a $4.9 trillion support and services market, alongside a demand for over 2.4 million new commercial aviation professionals... 674,000 pilots 728,000 maintenance technicians 1,023,000 cabin crew members
backsC25 - S13primarygovernment data2026-09-11a measured air travel series from outside the aviation industry, showing 2023 still 4.2% below 2019 and no data published after 2023
2023: 4268984474.03796 Air transport, passengers carried; 2019: 4455690101.02828 Air transport, passengers carried
backsC26 - S14primaryvendor data2026-09-11GE research pack, frozen at content/GE/research-pack.jsoncontent/GE/research-pack.jsonprice, market value and enterprise value, the 20-day range and 252-day return, the analyst split, eight quarters of earnings history with the filed GAAP earnings per share beside the adjusted, FINRA short interest, insider filings in aggregate, and the valuation_cross_check and errors blocksbacksC20C32C36C38
- S15primarycompany filing2026-01-30The Boeing Company Form 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025 The Boeing Companya customer's own order book on a comparable definition - Commercial Airplanes backlog of $567.29B at 31 December 2025 against $435.18B a year earlier, with $11.09B of 2025 cancellations disclosed, which GE's equivalent disclosure does not carryread, but no claim rests on it
- S16primarycompany filing2026-08-12the transaction codes behind one of the sales the pack reports in aggregate: code M, an exercise of 10,242 fully vested options at $36.65, immediately before code S sales of 5,344 and 4,898 shares at about $370backsC36
- S17primarycompany filing2026-07-28the same pattern on a second filer: exercises at $69.55 and $90.01 on options expiring in 2027 and 2028, each immediately followed by sales at about $354backsC36
- S18secondarynews2026-09-11News digest, GE, grouped key developmentsdata/cache/news/GE.jsonthe IndiGo memorandum for more than 1,000 LEAP-1A engines announced at Farnborough, and the measured price reaction to the CPP announcement - down 2.8% the session after
IndiGo and CFM sign MOU paving the way to a record agreement for 1,000+ LEAP-1A engines
backsC42 - S20primarycompany filing2026-09-11that GE has tagged no consolidated operating income for more than a decade, which is why its headline profit measure has no GAAP line beneath it and why the pack's vs_filings comparison matched a 2012 conglomerate figure against a 2025 aerospace one
44 facts in USD, the most recent covering 2014-04-01 to 2014-06-30, value 5,869,000,000, form 10-Q, filed 2014-07-31
backsC18 - S21primarycompany filing2026-03-12beneficial ownership at 31 December 2025, the named executives' roles and tenure, the 2025 annual bonus metrics and payout, the PSU design and the 2023 PSU vestingbacksC43C44C45
- S22primarycompany filing2026-10-20remaining performance obligation of $212.08B at 30 September 2026 by segment, internal shop visit revenue growth of 12% in the quarter and 23% for nine months, services and equipment revenue, and the cash flow bridgebacksC10
- S23primarycompany filing2026-10-20the raised 2026 guidance, quarterly adjusted revenue, operating profit, adjusted EPS and free cash flow, and the segment resultsbacksC11
- S24primarytranscript2026-10-20why Q3 free cash flow fell (receivables and airframer balances), spare-parts delinquency up again, CFM56 retirement and shop-visit expectations, the 2027 outlook (services, DPT, GE9X headwind, margins), and ten analysts' questions
Delinquency is up slightly, even though material availability continues to get better, and we are seeing good flow-through from that just given the strong demand, the backlog and the delinquency grew in the quarter.
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