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Arista Networks

מתגי הרשת שמאפשרים לאלפי שבבי AI לתקשר זה עם זה, וכולם פועלים על התוכנה של Arista עצמה.

הציון שלנוניטרלית ביטחון בינוני
הציונים
ציונים · 1-4
צמיחה3/4 ↑

צמיחה של 40%, אורגנית ובלי רכישות, אבל היא התרכזה בשני לקוחות, ואחד מהם עלה מ-18% מהמכירות ל-26%.

איכות העסק3/4 →

היתרון התחרותי של Arista מחזיק את כל הלקוחות פרט לשניים הגדולים ביותר, שכתבו מערכות הפעלה משלהם. ועדיין, ספירה עצמאית מדרגת אותה שלישית.

איתנות פיננסית4/4 →

13.3 מיליארד דולר במזומן ובלי חוב מכל סוג. הפעילות ייצרה תזרים של 2.8 מיליארד דולר בחצי שנה, לעומת השקעות הוניות של 84.2 מיליון דולר.

יכולת ביצוע4/4 ↑

שמונה רבעונים ברצף מעל התחזיות ושלוש העלאות של תחזית השנה, ובעיית האספקה דווחה לפני שפגעה ולא אחריה.

ערך לבעלי המניות3/4 ↓

מספר המניות המדולל לא השתנה בשנה, למרות תגמול מבוסס מניות של 4.2%. אבל הרכישה החוזרת נעצרה, ולכן ההנפקות כבר לא מקוזזות.

פוטנציאל3/4 →

8.4 מיליארד דולר של התחייבויות ביצוע כבר מחויבים, ו-91% מהם יתממשו בתוך שנתיים. אבל כדי להגיע להזדמנות של 2030 נדרש נתח שאין לה היום.

רמת סיכון2/4 ↓

שני לקוחות אחראים ל-42% מהמכירות, וכל אחד מהם מריץ כבר עשור מערכת הפעלה משלו למתגים. ספק אחד הוא מקור השבבים היחיד.

תמחור2/4 →

המחיר מניח שההכנסות יוכפלו לעומת התחזית עד 2029 ושיעור הרווח יישמר, וגם אז המכפיל הוא כ-26 על התוצאה הזו.

חוזק הראיות3/4 →

הטענות המרכזיות מופיעות בדוחות או נמדדו באופן עצמאי, אבל התחזית, יעד ה-AI וטווח שיעור הרווח הם של ההנהלה, ושום דוח לא יאמת אותם.

השורה התחתונה

הציון שלנו ל-Arista: ניטרלית. היא מוכרת מתגי רשת למרכזי נתונים של AI, וכולם פועלים על תוכנה אחת שלה, והמכירות צומחות מהר, ולכן העסק טוב. המחיר מניח שהמכירות יוכפלו בערך עד 2029, ששיעור הרווח יישמר ו-Arista תישאר המובילה, ולכן הוא מלא ולא זול. ועם זאת, ספירה עצמאית מדרגת אותה שלישית במתגי AI, ובדוח שלה עצמה כתוב שהצמיחה באה עם הנחות גדולות יותר ללקוחות הגדולים ביותר. ההערכה תלויה בשאלה אם המקום השלישי הוא עניין של תזמון או איבוד קרקע, וזה יתברר בשיעור הרווח ובדירוג הזה בכמה הרבעונים הקרובים.

הטיעון לטווח הארוךמרכזי נתונים של AI צריכים הרבה יותר חיבורי רשת, כי כל שבב AI צריך לתקשר עם כל השאר. Arista צריכה לשמור על הנתח שלה מההוצאה הזו בזמן שהמתחרות מתחזקות.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 8 טענות
C01עובדהhigh confidence
Arista sells Ethernet switches and routers that all run one operating system, EOS, across AI, data centre, campus and wide-area networks, managed through a single console called CloudVision.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-09-11
C30טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Management guides 2026 revenue to approximately $12.6 billion, about 40% growth - the third raise of the year, from the $10.5 billion set at the analyst day and $11.5 billion in May 2026.
against this
  • The guide is a supply forecast rather than a demand forecast on the company's own account: the chief financial officer says 'Jayshree and I are guiding based on what we're confident we can get the supply for', which means it can move on a supplier's decision rather than a customer's
  • The same guide was $10.5 billion at the analyst day, so the company's own visibility a year out was 17% below where it now sits - which cuts both ways but is not a record of precision
forwardwritten 2026-09-11
C45אומדןhigh confidence
At $206.55 the shares carry a market value of about $260.1 billion; net of $13.3 billion of cash and securities and no debt, the enterprise costs about $246.7 billion, or roughly 54 times the $4,546.9 million of operating profit Arista earned in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.
derivedPrice and market value from the research pack refreshed on 26 September 2026, whose price is the 25 September close. Cash and marketable securities of $13,343.3M from the 10-Q, no debt. Operating income: $3,856.1M for the year ended December 31, 2025 less $1,845.0M for the first half of 2025 plus $2,535.8M for the first half of 2026 = $4,546.9M. 246.74 / 4.547 = 54.3.
against this
  • The multiple is struck on trailing profit for a company guiding 40% growth; on the guided 2026 revenue of $12.6B at the guided 48-49% operating margin the same enterprise value is about 40 times the current year
  • The research pack's own enterprise value of $257.8 billion nets only cash equivalents and ignores the $11.05 billion of marketable securities, so any enterprise multiple quoted from the pack is overstated - including the cohort comparison, where every member is computed the same way
  1. 2026-09-26editedre-struck at the 25 September 2026 close ($206.55, from $199.10) on the refreshed pack: enterprise value $246.7B, 54 times trailing operating profit rather than 52, and about 40 times the guided year rather than 39
current state · 2026-09-26written 2026-09-11
C46עובדהmedium confidence
The analysts' consensus has revenue of $16.46 billion in 2027, $20.38 billion in 2028 and $24.11 billion in 2029 - against the $9,005.7 million Arista actually filed for 2025 - with earnings per share of $5.23, $6.39 and $7.87, contributed by 18, 11 and 4 forecasters respectively.
  1. 2026-09-26editedre-read on the pack refreshed 26 September 2026: the 2027 consensus earnings per share moved from $5.22 to $5.23; revenue and the other years unchanged
forwardwritten 2026-09-11
C09עובדהhigh confidence
Dell'Oro Group ranks Celestica first in Ethernet AI back-end switch sales in the second quarter of 2026, NVIDIA a close second, Arista third and Cisco fourth with the largest share gain of the quarter.
against this
  • Dell'Oro qualifies the same ranking in the same sentence: Arista 'would have been more closely tied if deferred AI revenue were included'. Arista's deferred revenue balance is $6.87B and it says the majority is product related, so the gap between recognised revenue and shipped demand is large and real
  • The ranking measures AI back-end switching only. Arista's front-end data centre, campus and routing revenue is the majority of the company and is not in it
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-09-11
C32עובדהhigh confidence
GAAP gross margin fell to 62.9% in the second quarter of 2026 from 65.2% a year earlier, and the 10-Q says the decrease 'was primarily driven by an increased proportion of our sales to large end customers who generally receive higher discounts'.
against this
  • Gross margin rose sequentially, from 61.9% in the first quarter of 2026, so the trend within 2026 is up rather than down
  • The chief financial officer attributes 20 to 30 basis points of that sequential improvement to a tariff refund rather than to the business, and says price increases will not reach the reported figure until late 2026 or 2027 because Arista is 'still going through a lot of backlog sales'
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-09-11
C44עובדהhigh confidence
Arista reports as a single segment: its 10-Q says the chief operating decision maker 'reviews financial information presented on a consolidated basis', so there is no filed split between AI, data centre, campus and routing revenue.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-09-11
C49עובדהmedium confidence
41 of 53 analysts rate the shares Buy, 12 Hold and none Sell.
  1. 2026-09-26editedre-read on the pack refreshed 26 September 2026: the split is unchanged at 41 Buy, 12 Hold, none Sell
current state · 2026-09-26written 2026-09-11
01

החברה

השבבים במרכז נתונים של AI מחליפים ביניהם תוצאות ללא הפסקה דרך מתגים: קופסאות עם עשרות עד מאות יציאות מהירות. Arista מוכרת את הקופסאות האלה, ואותה תוכנה, EOS, פועלת על כולן, מארון תקשורת במשרד ועד אשכול AI.

היא לא מתכננת אף שבב ולא מייצרת אף קופסה. Broadcom מספקת את הסיליקון, בלי התחייבות בכתב, וקבלני משנה מרכיבים את המכשירים.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 4 טענות
C01עובדהhigh confidence
Arista sells Ethernet switches and routers that all run one operating system, EOS, across AI, data centre, campus and wide-area networks, managed through a single console called CloudVision.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-09-11
C02עובדהhigh confidence
Arista does not make its own switching silicon: its 10-K says it is 'primarily reliant upon our predominant merchant silicon vendor, Broadcom, for our switching chips', with no written supply guarantee.
  1. 2026-09-27editedRe-sourced to the June 2026 10-Q, whose risk factors repeat the passage word for word; the fact now stands as of 30 June 2026 rather than the year end.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-09-11
C03עובדהhigh confidence
Arista does not build its own boxes either: manufacturing is subcontracted to Jabil, Sanmina and Foxconn Hon Hai, in Malaysia, Vietnam, Mexico and other countries.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-09-11
C04עובדהhigh confidence
EOS is a single binary on a single centralised system database, so a customer's automation, tooling and operating procedures are written once and work across every product Arista sells.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-09-11

ממה היא מרוויחה

Arista מקבלת תשלום כשהיא שולחת מתג, ושוב על תמיכה רב-שנתית. הרבה מהמכירות צריכות קודם לעבור בדיקת קבלה אצל הלקוח, ולכן המזומן מגיע לעתים לפני שהמכירה נרשמת: בסוף יוני היו 6.87 מיליארד דולר שחויבו ועוד לא הוכרו כהכנסה. שני לקוחות קנו 42% מכל מה שמכרה ב-2025.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 3 טענות
C22עובדהhigh confidence
Total remaining performance obligations were $8.4 billion at 30 June 2026, of which about 91% is expected to be recognised over the next two years; inside that sits $875.1 million of 'binding contractual agreements with certain customers' primarily for future product shipments and $427.8 million of unbilled multi-year support.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-09-11
C23עובדהhigh confidence
Deferred revenue was $6,865.9 million at 30 June 2026 against $4,061.7 million a year earlier, and the company says the majority of the balance is product related.
against this

The chief financial officer says the balance 'can move significantly on a quarterly basis, independent of underlying business drivers', so it is not a backlog in the ordinary sense and a fall would not necessarily mean demand fell

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-09-11
C26עובדהhigh confidence
Two customers were each more than 10% of revenue in each of the last three years. One was 26% of 2025 revenue against 20% in 2024 and 18% in 2023; the other was 16%, 15% and 21%. Together they were 42% of 2025 revenue.
  1. 2026-09-27editedReclassified from current state to historical: the three annual shares are closed periods that never move, and the June 2026 10-Q restates the same table with no interim figure, so it was never a statement about today.
historical · fiscal years 2023 to 2025written 2026-09-11
פירוט מקורות ההכנסה
מקורמשקל במכירות (שנת הכספים 2025)איך
ליבת הענן, ה-AI ומרכזי הנתוניםכ-65%מתגים ונתבים שפועלים על EOS, למרכזי נתונים ולאשכולות AI, שנמכרים בעיקר למפעילי הענן וה-AI הגדולים ביותר.
קמפוסים ותחומי ניתוב סמוכיםכ-18%מתגים לקמפוסים, Wi-Fi, רשתות סניפים של VeloCloud ונתבים לרשתות רחבות, שנמכרים לארגונים ולספקי שירות.
תוכנה ושירותים לרשתכ-17%חוזי תמיכה ותוכנה במנוי, כמו CloudVision, שמתחדשים מדי שנה על הבסיס המותקן.

ההנהלה

ג'יישרי אולאל עומדת בראש Arista מאז 2008 והביאה אותה למכירות של 9 מיליארד דולר; המייסד השותף קן דודה אחראי על הטכנולוגיה, ושני מנהלים שגויסו לאחרונה מ-Fastly ומחברת Aspen Technology אחראים על התפעול ועל הכספים. בעלי העניין מחזיקים פחות מ-3% מהמניות, רובן של אולאל; נאמנות משפחתית מחוץ להנהלה מחזיקה כ-15%. הבונוסים והמניות הצמודות לביצועים נקבעים לפי המכירות והרווח התפעולי של השנה, ולא לפי מחיר המניה או התזרים, ובשנה שעברה שולם המקסימום.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 3 טענות
C68עובדהhigh confidence
Jayshree Ullal has been chief executive since October 2008 and chairperson since December 2023; Kenneth Duda, a founder, has been chief technology officer since 2011 and a president since September 2025; Todd Nightingale, formerly Fastly's chief executive, president and chief operating officer since June 2025; Chantelle Breithaupt, formerly Aspen Technology's finance chief, chief financial officer since February 2024.
current state · 2026-04-16written 2026-10-04
C69עובדהhigh confidence
At 2 April 2026 the eleven directors and executive officers as a group beneficially owned 33,474,360 shares, 2.7% of the company, and Jayshree Ullal 2.3% of it, the largest insider; the Bechtolsheim Family Trust held 14.6% and BlackRock 5.9%, the only holders above 5%. There is one class of common stock, one vote a share.
against this

Insiders sold 6,988,583 shares and bought none in the twelve months to 26 September 2026 (C51), so the stakes in the April table are falling.

current state · 2026-04-02written 2026-10-04
C70עובדהhigh confidence
The 2025 bonus pool was funded 50% on revenue and 50% on non-GAAP operating income, against targets of $8.25 billion and $3.8385 billion, and can be cut for gross margin, quality, non-cloud growth or new customers; the performance shares paid on yearly revenue and non-GAAP operating income goals, and the chief executive's also on three-year growth-rate goals for 2024 to 2026. With $9.0 billion and $4.3 billion delivered, 2025's shares paid the 200% maximum.
against this
  • The 2025 maximum was set at $8.5 billion of revenue and $3.95 billion of non-GAAP operating income, both below what was delivered, so the ceiling was reached without the stretch the cap implies.
  • Nothing in either plan pays on the share price, cash flow or return on capital, and only 62% of votes cast approved the pay programme at the 2025 meeting.
historical · fiscal year 2025written 2026-10-04
02

היתרון התחרותי, ומי מאיים עליו

למה הלקוחות נשארים

לקוח לא מאמץ מתג; הוא מאמץ דרך לנהל את הרשת שלו. האוטומציה, הניטור וההכשרה של הצוות נכתבים פעם אחת עבור EOS, ולכן מעבר למתחרה פירושו לכתוב אותם מחדש ולבדוק מחדש חומרה חדשה.

זו בעיה אמיתית. באימון של מודל AI אחד Meta ספרה 35 עצירות לא מתוכננות מתוך 419, ב-54 ימים, שנגרמו ממתגים וכבלים; תקלה אחת יכולה להחזיר את העבודה כולה להתחלה.

הנעילה נעצרת אצל שני הלקוחות הגדולים ביותר, שכתבו תוכנת מתגים משלהם לפני עשור ועדיין קונים מ-Arista חומרה להרצתה.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 7 טענות
C04עובדהhigh confidence
EOS is a single binary on a single centralised system database, so a customer's automation, tooling and operating procedures are written once and work across every product Arista sells.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-09-11
C05עובדהhigh confidence
Arista's own 10-K names 'the extensive periods required for evaluation, testing, and qualification' as a driver of when its revenue lands - the company's own statement of what displacing it costs in time.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-09-11
C55עובדהhigh confidence
Microsoft created SONiC, an open-source switch operating system, for its Azure data centres. The Linux Foundation, which has governed it since 2022, says it runs on over 100 different switches from multiple vendors, and Microsoft's own networking chief says it 'already runs on millions of ports'.
against this
  • Microsoft has been one of Arista's two greater-than-10% customers in each of the last three years, and SONiC has existed since 2016 - so a decade of coexistence is the observed outcome rather than displacement
  • Arista is not among the premier members the Linux Foundation lists (Alibaba, Broadcom, Dell, Google, Intel, Microsoft, NVIDIA), which is a statement about governance rather than about whether Arista's hardware runs it
current state · 2022-04-14written 2026-09-11
C56עובדהhigh confidence
Arista sells its own hardware into that substitute rather than fighting it: since May 2020 it has shipped 'Arista switches Powered by SONiC' through an Arista SAI layer, and its release says customers 'have the option of choosing between Arista EOS and Arista SAI with SONiC software on these systems'.
against this
  • The same release positions migration back to EOS as the benefit - 'Arista platforms running SAI can be easily migrated to EOS, providing a flexible path to the mainstream, feature-rich EOS software' - so Arista treats SONiC as an on-ramp rather than a surrender
  • Arista's 10-K never mentions SONiC or SAI by name and gives no revenue split, so how many ports ship on somebody else's operating system is not disclosed anywhere
current state · 2020-05-05written 2026-09-11
C58עובדהhigh confidence
Meta's own account of its 2021 hardware puts Arista on both sides of the line: it developed the Minipack2 and 'the Arista 7388X5, in partnership with Arista Networks', and says its Wedge400 and 400C switches 'are manufactured by Celestica' - the vendor Dell'Oro ranks first in Ethernet AI back-end switch sales.
against this

Being chosen as the co-development partner on a customer's own switch programme is evidence of platform engineering the customer could not do alone, which argues the relationship is deeper than a hardware purchase rather than shallower

  1. 2026-09-27editedReclassified as historical: it describes the hardware Meta built in 2021, a closed fact, not the state of its network today.
historical · Meta's 2021 switch generationwritten 2026-09-11
C60הסקהmedium confidence
The substitution has not shown up in the revenue. Both customers have run their own switch operating system for a decade, and both were still more than 10% of Arista's revenue in each of 2023, 2024 and 2025 - with one rising from 18% to 26%.
derivedMicrosoft released SONiC in 2016 (S17, S18) and Meta released FBOSS in March 2015 (S20). Arista's 10-K and 10-Q report the same two customers above 10% in each of 2023, 2024 and 2025, at 26%/20%/18% and 16%/15%/21% (S01, S02).
against this
  • Revenue share says nothing about which software those ports run. Arista discloses no EOS-versus-SAI split, so a growing hardware business and a shrinking software attach would look identical from outside
  • The two customers' spending has grown enormously over the same decade - Meta alone plans $130 billion to $145 billion of capital expenditure in 2026 - so a constant revenue share can coexist with a falling share of their switch ports
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-09-11
C61עובדהhigh confidence
Meta's own account of training its largest Llama 3 model, on up to 16K H100 processors over a fabric of Arista 7800 and Minipack2 switches, counts 419 unexpected stoppages in 54 days; 35 of them, 8.4%, came from network switches and cables, and one failure can restart the whole job.
against this

The same paper reports more than 90% effective training time across every interruption, so the whole cost of the network faults sits inside a loss under 10%; and it does not say which switch, Arista's or Meta's own, caused which fault.

historical · the 54-day Llama 3 405B pre-training snapshot, 2024written 2026-09-27

האיום

Dell'Oro, חברת מחקר עצמאית, דירגה את Arista שלישית במתגים לרשתות AI בשני הרבעונים האחרונים. במקום הראשון Celestica, שמוכרת קופסאות ללא מותג לקונים הגדולים ביותר, ובהם Meta. במקום השני NVIDIA, שמוכרת את הרשת שלה יחד עם השבבים, כך שהקונה אף פעם לא מקיים תחרות בין מתגים. Cisco, הרביעית, צברה הכי הרבה קרקע.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 5 טענות
C09עובדהhigh confidence
Dell'Oro Group ranks Celestica first in Ethernet AI back-end switch sales in the second quarter of 2026, NVIDIA a close second, Arista third and Cisco fourth with the largest share gain of the quarter.
against this
  • Dell'Oro qualifies the same ranking in the same sentence: Arista 'would have been more closely tied if deferred AI revenue were included'. Arista's deferred revenue balance is $6.87B and it says the majority is product related, so the gap between recognised revenue and shipped demand is large and real
  • The ranking measures AI back-end switching only. Arista's front-end data centre, campus and routing revenue is the majority of the company and is not in it
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-09-11
C10עובדהhigh confidence
The same ranking held a quarter earlier: Dell'Oro put Celestica first, NVIDIA second, Arista third and Cisco fourth in Ethernet AI back-end switch sales in the first quarter of 2026.
historical · Q1 2026written 2026-09-11
C11עובדהhigh confidence
Celestica's own 10-K describes selling 'fully designed white box solutions' spanning 'networking (including Ethernet switches and optical systems)' to hyperscalers and AI service providers, as both a contract manufacturer and an original design manufacturer.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-09-11
C12עובדהhigh confidence
Arista's own 10-K states that Ethernet 'faces competition from both InfiniBand and NVLink interconnects for back-end AI networking clusters', and that both 'are often sold as part of a vertical solution along with the GPUs from Nvidia'.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-09-11
C58עובדהhigh confidence
Meta's own account of its 2021 hardware puts Arista on both sides of the line: it developed the Minipack2 and 'the Arista 7388X5, in partnership with Arista Networks', and says its Wedge400 and 400C switches 'are manufactured by Celestica' - the vendor Dell'Oro ranks first in Ethernet AI back-end switch sales.
against this

Being chosen as the co-development partner on a customer's own switch programme is evidence of platform engineering the customer could not do alone, which argues the relationship is deeper than a hardware purchase rather than shallower

  1. 2026-09-27editedReclassified as historical: it describes the hardware Meta built in 2021, a closed fact, not the state of its network today.
historical · Meta's 2021 switch generationwritten 2026-09-11

המתחרות: CLS, NVDA, CSCO, HPE, MSFT, META, EXTR, DELL, KEYS, NTCT.

פירוט המתחרים
סימולמתחרהתחומי התחרותשלבבסיס להשוואה
CLSCelesticaבסיס להשוואה: כןמרכזי AIכבר נמכרכן
NVDANVIDIA Spectrum-X,‏ InfiniBand ו-NVLinkבסיס להשוואה: מוצג, לא נכלל בחישובמרכזי AIכבר נמכרמוצגת, לא נספרת
CSCOCiscoבסיס להשוואה: כןמרכזי נתונים ורשתות WANכבר נמכרכן
HPEHewlett Packard Enterprise, עם תיק המוצרים של Juniperבסיס להשוואה: אין נתון שמישרשתות קמפוסכבר נמכראין נתון שמיש
MSFTMicrosoft, עם SONiCבסיס להשוואה: מוצר שונהמרכזי נתונים ורשתות WANכבר נמכרמוצר שונה
METAMeta, עם FBOSS ועם תכנוני מתגי OCP משלהבסיס להשוואה: מוצר שונהמרכזי AIכבר נמכרמוצר שונה
EXTRExtreme Networksבסיס להשוואה: כן-כבר נמכרכן
DELLDell Technologiesבסיס להשוואה: מוצג, לא נכלל בחישוב-כבר נמכרמוצגת, לא נספרת
KEYSKeysight Technologiesבסיס להשוואה: בתחום אחד בלבד-כבר נמכרבתחום אחד בלבד
NTCTNetScout Systemsבסיס להשוואה: בתחום אחד בלבד-כבר נמכרבתחום אחד בלבד
03

פוטנציאל הצמיחה

גודל ההזדמנות

Dell'Oro צופה שההוצאה על מתגים לרשתות AI תעבור 100 מיליארד דולר בשנה עד 2030, וכשני שלישים ממכירות מתגי ה-AI היום הם מסוג Ethernet, שאותו Arista מוכרת. זה שוק של כ-67 מיליארד דולר, לעומת מכירות של 10.54 מיליארד דולר של Arista בארבעת הרבעונים האחרונים.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 3 טענות
C18עובדהmedium confidence
Dell'Oro forecasts spending on data centre switches in AI back-end networks to surpass $100 billion by 2030, and reports that in the second quarter of 2026 back-end switch sales exceeded front-end switch sales for the first time.
against this
  • A five-year forecast from a market research firm is a forecast, not a measurement, and this one is made at the top of a capital-spending cycle whose duration nobody has established
  • The same firm expects co-packaged optics adoption 'spearheaded by NVIDIA', which would move value toward the party that also supplies the accelerators
forwardwritten 2026-09-11
C19עובדהmedium confidence
Dell'Oro measures Ethernet at about two-thirds of data centre switch sales in AI clusters, and expects Ethernet to dominate both the scale-up and scale-out segments, with switch ports moving from 800 gigabit today to 1600 gigabit by 2027 and 3200 gigabit by 2030.
against this

InfiniBand sales more than tripled in the first quarter of 2026, which is the opposite direction from the one the forecast assumes, and Dell'Oro attributes a significant part of it to brownfield upgrades of an installed base that therefore still exists

forwardwritten 2026-09-11
C21עובדהhigh confidence
Arista's revenue over the four quarters to 30 June 2026 was $10,540.8 million.
historical · the twelve months ended June 30, 2026written 2026-09-11

מי כבר התחייב

הלקוחות התחייבו ל-8.4 מיליארד דולר של מכירות עתידיות, ו-91% מהן אמורות להתממש תוך שנתיים. אבל רק 875 מיליון דולר מוגדרים מחייבים. רוב השאר הוא ה-6.87 מיליארד דולר שכבר חויבו וממתינים לקבלת הציוד אצל הלקוחות. מעבר לכך, שום דבר לא הוזמן.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 2 טענות
C22עובדהhigh confidence
Total remaining performance obligations were $8.4 billion at 30 June 2026, of which about 91% is expected to be recognised over the next two years; inside that sits $875.1 million of 'binding contractual agreements with certain customers' primarily for future product shipments and $427.8 million of unbilled multi-year support.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-09-11
C23עובדהhigh confidence
Deferred revenue was $6,865.9 million at 30 June 2026 against $4,061.7 million a year earlier, and the company says the majority of the balance is product related.
against this

The chief financial officer says the balance 'can move significantly on a quarterly basis, independent of underlying business drivers', so it is not a backlog in the ordinary sense and a fall would not necessarily mean demand fell

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-09-11
מאיפה מגיעה הצמיחה, לפי פעילות

מאיפה מגיעה הצמיחה

פעילותמשקל בהכנסותצמיחה ברבעון האחרוןבחצי השנה האחרונהבשנה האחרונהמשקל בעוד 3 שנים, בקצב של חצי השנה האחרונה
מוצר86%+38.8%+37.7%+33.2%88%
שירות14%+31.3%+29.4%+29.4%12%
החברה כולה100%+37.7%+36.5%+32.6%100%

לפי פילוח ההכנסות המדווח עד 30 ביוני 2026: אם כל פעילות תשמור על קצב הצמיחה של חצי השנה האחרונה, החברה תצמח בכ-37% בשנה הבאה וב-37% בשנה השלישית, לעומת 32.6% ב-12 החודשים האחרונים. זה תרחיש ולא תחזית: אף פעילות לא שומרת על הקצב שלה.

04

התוצאות

המספרים

היא צומחת?מהר

המכירות צמחו ב-33% ב-12 החודשים שעד יוני 2026, בערך בקצב של 29% בשנה שהסתיימה בדצמבר 2025.

Dec 2021: $2.95BDec 2022: $4.38BDec 2023: $5.86BDec 2024: $7.00BDec 2025: $9.01B12 mo to Jun 2026: $10.5B$2.95B$10.5B
היא רווחית?מאוד

שיעור הרווח התפעולי עומד על 43%, לעומת 39% בשנה שהסתיימה בדצמבר 2023.

Dec 2021: 31%Dec 2022: 35%Dec 2023: 39%Dec 2024: 42%Dec 2025: 43%12 mo to Jun 2026: 43%31%43%
הצמיחה משתלמת?משתלמת

ההוצאות התפעוליות עומדות על 20 סנט מכל דולר מכירות, לעומת 32 סנט בשנה שהסתיימה בדצמבר 2021.

Dec 2021: 32¢Dec 2022: 26¢Dec 2023: 23¢Dec 2024: 22¢Dec 2025: 21¢12 mo to Jun 2026: 20¢32¢20¢
התשואה על ההון גבוהה?גבוהה מאוד

כל דולר שמושקע בעסק מניב 29% בשנה אחרי מס, לעומת 23% בשנה שהסתיימה בדצמבר 2021.

Dec 2021: 23%Dec 2022: 29%Dec 2023: 32%Dec 2024: 30%Dec 2025: 28%12 mo to Jun 2026: 29%23%29%
עד כמה היא יציבה?לא אחידה

בחמש השנים האחרונות המכירות צמחו בכל שנה בין 20% ל-49%.

Dec 2021: +27%Dec 2022: +49%Dec 2023: +34%Dec 2024: +20%Dec 2025: +29%+27%+29%
בעלי המניות מדוללים?לא

מספר המניות עלה ב-0.8% בשלוש שנים וחצי, ותגמול מבוסס מניות עולה 4.8% מהמכירות.

Dec 2022: 1.27BDec 2023: 1.27BDec 2024: 1.28BDec 2025: 1.28B12 mo to Jun 2026: 1.28B1.27B1.28B
כל המספרים

נתונים מדוחות 10-K ו-10-Q של החברה, שנקראו ב-4 באוקטובר 2026. שנת הכספים מסתיימת בדצמבר.

דצמבר 2021דצמבר 2022דצמבר 2023דצמבר 2024דצמבר 202512 חודשים עד יוני 2026
גודל וצמיחה
מכירות$2.95B$4.38B$5.86B$7.00B$9.01B$10.5B
צמיחת המכירות+27%+49%+34%+20%+29%+33%
רווח
שיעור הרווח הגולמי64%61%62%64%64%63%
שיעור הרווח התפעולי31%35%39%42%43%43%
שיעור הרווח הנקי29%31%36%41%39%38%
עלות הצמיחה, לכל דולר מכירות
מחקר ופיתוח20%17%15%14%14%13%
מכירות ושיווק9.7%7.5%6.8%6.1%5.9%5.5%
הנהלה וכלליות2.8%2.1%2.0%1.8%1.6%1.4%
תגמול מבוסס מניות6.3%5.3%5.1%5.1%4.9%4.8%
השקעות הוניות2.2%1.0%0.6%0.5%1.3%-
מזומנים
תזרים מפעילות שוטפת$1.02B$493M$2.03B$3.71B$4.37B-
תזרים מזומנים חופשי$951M$448M$2.00B$3.68B$4.25B-
מאזן
מזומנים והשקעות לזמן קצר$3.41B$3.02B$5.01B$8.30B$10.7B$13.3B
תשואות ומניות
תשואה על ההון המושקע23%29%32%30%28%29%
מספר המניות (בדילול מלא)-1.27B1.27B1.28B1.28B1.28B

עלות הצמיחה

הצמיחה שיפרה את הרווחיות של Arista: ההוצאות על מחקר, מכירות והנהלה גדלות לאט יותר מהמכירות, ולכן כל דולר מכירות חדש עולה פחות להשגה. הלחץ נמצא במקום אחר: מכירה גדולה יותר ללקוחות הגדולים מורידה את הרווח על כל קופסה, ולכן השיפור מופיע מתחת לשיעור הרווח הגולמי ולא בו.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 2 טענות
C67עובדהhigh confidence
Per sales dollar, research and development fell from 21.0 cents in 2020 to 13.7 in 2025 and 13.0 over the four quarters to June 2026, sales and marketing from 9.9 to 5.9 and 5.5, general and administrative from 2.9 to 1.6 and 1.4, and stock pay from 5.9 to 4.9 and 4.8; R&D dollars rose 2.5 times to 2025 while revenue rose 3.9 times.
against this
  • Gross margin did not widen with them: it was 63.9% in 2020 and 64.1% in 2025 and fell to 62.9% in the second quarter of 2026 on sales to the largest customers (C32), so the leverage sits in operating costs only.
  • The filed R&D line includes stock pay; management's own figure of about 11% of 2025 revenue is non-GAAP and excludes it, so the two definitions differ by roughly the stock pay charged to R&D.
historical · 2020 to the four quarters to June 2026written 2026-10-04
C32עובדהhigh confidence
GAAP gross margin fell to 62.9% in the second quarter of 2026 from 65.2% a year earlier, and the 10-Q says the decrease 'was primarily driven by an increased proportion of our sales to large end customers who generally receive higher discounts'.
against this
  • Gross margin rose sequentially, from 61.9% in the first quarter of 2026, so the trend within 2026 is up rather than down
  • The chief financial officer attributes 20 to 30 basis points of that sequential improvement to a tariff refund rather than to the business, and says price increases will not reach the reported figure until late 2026 or 2027 because Arista is 'still going through a lot of backlog sales'
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-09-11

הדוח האחרון (4 באוגוסט)

הרבעון שהסתיים ביוני 2026, לפי הדוחות.

38%
צמיחת המכירות
לעומת הרבעון המקביל אשתקד
12.1%
צמיחה לעומת הרבעון הקודם
לעומת 8.9% ברבעון שקדם לו
45¢
רווח תפעולי
לכל דולר מכירות

הרבעון השני של 2026 נראה כמו עוד שיא: מכירות של 3.04 מיליארד דולר, עלייה של 37.7% לעומת השנה שעברה, ותחזית שנתית שהועלתה בפעם השלישית ל-12.6 מיליארד דולר.

הפרטים היו בשיעור הרווח. שיעור הרווח הגולמי, מה שנשאר אחרי התשלום על הקופסאות, ירד ל-62.9% מ-65.2%, והדוח מסביר למה: יותר מכירות הגיעו ללקוחות הגדולים ביותר, שמקבלים הנחות גדולות יותר. שאר ההוצאות גדלו לאט יותר, ולכן שיעור הרווח התפעולי עדיין עלה. והתחזית דורשת עכשיו צמיחה של כ-43% בכל אחד מהרבעונים הנותרים, מהר יותר מבחודש יוני.

מה זה אומר על התזההדוח אישר שהצמיחה אמיתית ושהיא מוגבלת בעיקר בגלל האספקה. הוא גם סיפק את הראיות להערכה הניטרלית שלנו: שיעורי הרווח ירדו כי הלקוחות הגדולים ביותר מקבלים הנחות גדולות יותר, והתחזית המוגדלת דורשת האצה בצמיחה. ההובלה ושיעור הרווח, שהמחיר כבר מגלם, נשארים בסימן שאלה.

הרבעון בפירוט

צמיחת המכירות לעומת הרבעון הקודם, לפי הדוחות. החברה תיקנה בדיעבד את הנתונים ההיסטוריים שלה, ולכן רבעונים משני צדי התיקון עשויים לתאר עסק שונה; n/c מסמן רבעון שאין בסיס להשוואתו.

רווח למניה $1.02 לעומת $0.89 צפוי; $0.95 לפי הדוחות, והפער הוא הסעיפים שהחברה מנטרלת.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 5 טענות
C28עובדהhigh confidence
Revenue in the second quarter of 2026 was $3,035.7 million, up 37.7% on the same quarter of 2025 and up 12.1% on the first quarter of 2026.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-09-11
C30טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Management guides 2026 revenue to approximately $12.6 billion, about 40% growth - the third raise of the year, from the $10.5 billion set at the analyst day and $11.5 billion in May 2026.
against this
  • The guide is a supply forecast rather than a demand forecast on the company's own account: the chief financial officer says 'Jayshree and I are guiding based on what we're confident we can get the supply for', which means it can move on a supplier's decision rather than a customer's
  • The same guide was $10.5 billion at the analyst day, so the company's own visibility a year out was 17% below where it now sits - which cuts both ways but is not a record of precision
forwardwritten 2026-09-11
C31אומדןmedium confidence
The full-year guide implies revenue growth of about 43% in each of the third and fourth quarters of 2026, against the 37.7% delivered in the second - the guide requires the year-on-year rate to accelerate, not hold.
derivedThe guide is approximately $12.6B. First-half 2026 revenue was $5,744.7M (10-Q), leaving about $6,855M for the second half. Third-quarter guidance is approximately $3.3B, implying about $3,555M in the fourth. Against $2,308.3M in Q3 2025 and $2,487.8M in Q4 2025 those are +43.0% and +42.9%.
against this
  • The acceleration is not a demand assumption but a supply one: management says second-half shipments depend on the supply-chain work done in the first half, and that if supply released further 'there is an opportunity to do better in the year'
  • A rising deferred revenue balance means some of the second-half recognition is already billed and sitting on the balance sheet, so the required acceleration is less speculative than a bare order-book ramp would be
forwardwritten 2026-09-11
C32עובדהhigh confidence
GAAP gross margin fell to 62.9% in the second quarter of 2026 from 65.2% a year earlier, and the 10-Q says the decrease 'was primarily driven by an increased proportion of our sales to large end customers who generally receive higher discounts'.
against this
  • Gross margin rose sequentially, from 61.9% in the first quarter of 2026, so the trend within 2026 is up rather than down
  • The chief financial officer attributes 20 to 30 basis points of that sequential improvement to a tariff refund rather than to the business, and says price increases will not reach the reported figure until late 2026 or 2027 because Arista is 'still going through a lot of backlog sales'
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-09-11
C34אומדןhigh confidence
Operating margin rose even as gross margin fell: 45.4% in the second quarter of 2026 against 44.7% a year earlier, because operating expenses dropped to 17.5% of revenue from 20.5%.
derivedFiled figures from the 10-Q: operating expenses of $532.3M on revenue of $3,035.7M is 17.5%; $452.4M on $2,204.8M is 20.5%. Income from operations of $1,378.0M and $986.2M gives the two margins directly.
against this
  • Operating leverage of this kind is a function of a revenue line growing 37.7%; it reverses when growth slows, and the expense base is people rather than a fixed asset, so it is a timing advantage rather than a structural one
  • The measure is GAAP. On the non-GAAP basis management guides to, operating margin was 49.9% against 48.8% - a similar move, but struck after adding back $120.4 million of stock compensation in the quarter
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-09-11
לאן הלך הכסף

יש לה 13.3 מיליארד דולר במזומנים ובניירות ערך, אין חוב, והיא לא רכשה מניות בחזרה השנה. במקום זאת התחייבה לרכישת רכיבים ב-9.7 מיליארד דולר, כמעט פי שלושה מהסכום אשתקד, כדי להבטיח אספקה בשוק שחסר בו היצע.

בעלי עניין ברבעון השני של 2026: 30 רכישות ו-178 מכירות, לפי דיווחי Form 4 שלהם.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 4 טענות
C40עובדהhigh confidence
Arista held $2,290.2 million of cash and $11,053.1 million of marketable securities at 30 June 2026, and carries no debt at all; of $8,922.4 million of total liabilities, $6,865.9 million is deferred revenue.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-09-11
C42עובדהhigh confidence
Arista repurchased no shares in the first half of 2026, against $983.0 million in the first half of 2025; $817.9 million of the $1.5 billion programme authorised in May 2025 remains unused.
against this

Stopping a buyback while the shares are at 64 times trailing earnings is a defensible allocation decision rather than a failure, and the company has no debt to service and no financing need that would force it

  1. 2026-09-26editedcounter-evidence re-struck at the 25 September 2026 close: trailing P/E is 64 on the refreshed pack, not 62
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-09-11
C36עובדהhigh confidence
Non-cancellable purchase commitments not on the balance sheet were $9.7 billion at 30 June 2026, of which $9.4 billion has expected receipt dates within twelve months; management says the figure has almost tripled from $3.6 billion a year earlier.
against this

Arista's own risk factors say it expects inventory and purchase commitments 'to remain elevated and subject to volatility' and name 'a heightened risk of excess or obsolete inventory and supplier liability charges' - the company's own statement of what the commitment costs if demand moves

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-09-11
C39עובדהhigh confidence
Both the company and an independent measurer describe this market as supply-limited rather than demand-limited: Ullal calls it 'a 2-year problem' the industry does not escape 'until 2028', and Dell'Oro expects the market to 'remain supply-constrained, rather than demand-constrained, for at least the next one-to-two years'.
against this

Arista's chief operating officer says memory supply is 'secured for 2026' with visibility 'well into 2027' across DDR4, DDR5 and NAND, which is a narrower and more favourable statement than the industry-wide one made two answers earlier on the same call

forwardwritten 2026-09-11
05

המחיר, ואיפה אנחנו חלוקים על השוק

בקצרה. מלא. המחיר מגלם ש-Arista תישאר המובילה בשוק ותשמור על שיעור הרווח. הצמיחה אמיתית; הראיות מטילות ספק גם בהובלה וגם בשיעור הרווח.

מחיר המניה
$206.55
שער סגירה,
שווי החברה לכל דולר רווח תפעולי
56.7
חציון המתחרות 30.6

מחיר המניה לא יוצר דחיפות: Arista הניבה 44.4% בשנה האחרונה, לעומת 149.8% לחברה החציונית בקבוצת רשתות ה-AI.

את הדחיפות יוצר המבחן. ב-3 בנובמבר Arista מדווחת על רבעון ספטמבר, המבחן הראשון לתחזית שדורשת האצה בצמיחה. בנוסף, ההוצאה על מתגים לרשתות AI עקפה בחודש יוני לראשונה את ההוצאה על רשת מרכזי נתונים רגילה, ו-Arista וגם Dell'Oro אומרות שאספקה, ולא ביקוש, היא המגבלה.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 5 טענות
C50עובדהmedium confidence
The shares returned 44.4% over the 252 sessions to 25 September 2026 while the median member of the datacentre interconnect and networking theme returned 149.8%.
  1. 2026-09-26editedre-struck on the pack refreshed 26 September 2026, taking both returns from the theme comparison's own window so the two figures are measured alike: 44.4% against a theme median of 149.8%, where the claim had set the price series' 32.1% beside the theme's 136.4% to 11 September
historical · the 252 sessions to September 25, 2026written 2026-09-11
C30טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Management guides 2026 revenue to approximately $12.6 billion, about 40% growth - the third raise of the year, from the $10.5 billion set at the analyst day and $11.5 billion in May 2026.
against this
  • The guide is a supply forecast rather than a demand forecast on the company's own account: the chief financial officer says 'Jayshree and I are guiding based on what we're confident we can get the supply for', which means it can move on a supplier's decision rather than a customer's
  • The same guide was $10.5 billion at the analyst day, so the company's own visibility a year out was 17% below where it now sits - which cuts both ways but is not a record of precision
forwardwritten 2026-09-11
C31אומדןmedium confidence
The full-year guide implies revenue growth of about 43% in each of the third and fourth quarters of 2026, against the 37.7% delivered in the second - the guide requires the year-on-year rate to accelerate, not hold.
derivedThe guide is approximately $12.6B. First-half 2026 revenue was $5,744.7M (10-Q), leaving about $6,855M for the second half. Third-quarter guidance is approximately $3.3B, implying about $3,555M in the fourth. Against $2,308.3M in Q3 2025 and $2,487.8M in Q4 2025 those are +43.0% and +42.9%.
against this
  • The acceleration is not a demand assumption but a supply one: management says second-half shipments depend on the supply-chain work done in the first half, and that if supply released further 'there is an opportunity to do better in the year'
  • A rising deferred revenue balance means some of the second-half recognition is already billed and sitting on the balance sheet, so the required acceleration is less speculative than a bare order-book ramp would be
forwardwritten 2026-09-11
C18עובדהmedium confidence
Dell'Oro forecasts spending on data centre switches in AI back-end networks to surpass $100 billion by 2030, and reports that in the second quarter of 2026 back-end switch sales exceeded front-end switch sales for the first time.
against this
  • A five-year forecast from a market research firm is a forecast, not a measurement, and this one is made at the top of a capital-spending cycle whose duration nobody has established
  • The same firm expects co-packaged optics adoption 'spearheaded by NVIDIA', which would move value toward the party that also supplies the accelerators
forwardwritten 2026-09-11
C39עובדהhigh confidence
Both the company and an independent measurer describe this market as supply-limited rather than demand-limited: Ullal calls it 'a 2-year problem' the industry does not escape 'until 2028', and Dell'Oro expects the market to 'remain supply-constrained, rather than demand-constrained, for at least the next one-to-two years'.
against this

Arista's chief operating officer says memory supply is 'secured for 2026' with visibility 'well into 2027' across DDR4, DDR5 and NAND, which is a narrower and more favourable statement than the industry-wide one made two answers earlier on the same call

forwardwritten 2026-09-11
איך לקרוא את המכפיל

שווי החברה הוא יותר מ-50 פעמים הרווח התפעולי ש-Arista הרוויחה בשנה האחרונה, המכפיל הגבוה ביותר בין המתחרות. הלקוחות הגדולים ביותר שלה מקבלים הנחות גדולות יותר, ושיעור הרווח הגולמי ירד מ-65.2% ל-62.9% בשנה.

לפי המספרים של האנליסטים עצמם, המחיר דורש:

  1. שהמכירות יוכפלו בערך, לכ-24.1 מיליארד דולר עד 2029.
  2. שהרווח התפעולי יישמר על כ-49 סנט מכל דולר מכירות.
  3. וגם אז, מחיר היום הוא כ-26 פעמים הרווח הצפוי ל-2029: שיעור הרווח הוא ההימור.

מול ההיסטוריה שלה. מכפיל המכירות גבוה מהמקובל בשנים האחרונות שלה, והצמיחה היום מהירה יותר מאז. חלק מהפער מוצדק; השאר מניח ששיעור הרווח יישמר.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 5 טענות
C45אומדןhigh confidence
At $206.55 the shares carry a market value of about $260.1 billion; net of $13.3 billion of cash and securities and no debt, the enterprise costs about $246.7 billion, or roughly 54 times the $4,546.9 million of operating profit Arista earned in the twelve months to 30 June 2026.
derivedPrice and market value from the research pack refreshed on 26 September 2026, whose price is the 25 September close. Cash and marketable securities of $13,343.3M from the 10-Q, no debt. Operating income: $3,856.1M for the year ended December 31, 2025 less $1,845.0M for the first half of 2025 plus $2,535.8M for the first half of 2026 = $4,546.9M. 246.74 / 4.547 = 54.3.
against this
  • The multiple is struck on trailing profit for a company guiding 40% growth; on the guided 2026 revenue of $12.6B at the guided 48-49% operating margin the same enterprise value is about 40 times the current year
  • The research pack's own enterprise value of $257.8 billion nets only cash equivalents and ignores the $11.05 billion of marketable securities, so any enterprise multiple quoted from the pack is overstated - including the cohort comparison, where every member is computed the same way
  1. 2026-09-26editedre-struck at the 25 September 2026 close ($206.55, from $199.10) on the refreshed pack: enterprise value $246.7B, 54 times trailing operating profit rather than 52, and about 40 times the guided year rather than 39
current state · 2026-09-26written 2026-09-11
C46עובדהmedium confidence
The analysts' consensus has revenue of $16.46 billion in 2027, $20.38 billion in 2028 and $24.11 billion in 2029 - against the $9,005.7 million Arista actually filed for 2025 - with earnings per share of $5.23, $6.39 and $7.87, contributed by 18, 11 and 4 forecasters respectively.
  1. 2026-09-26editedre-read on the pack refreshed 26 September 2026: the 2027 consensus earnings per share moved from $5.22 to $5.23; revenue and the other years unchanged
forwardwritten 2026-09-11
C47אומדןmedium confidence
At $206.55 the shares cost about 26 times the earnings four forecasters expect in 2029 - a figure that itself assumes revenue roughly doubles from the 2026 guide.
derivedPrice of $206.55 over consensus 2029 earnings per share of $7.87 is 26.3. Consensus 2029 revenue of $24.11B against the 2026 guide of approximately $12.6B is 1.91 times. On the enterprise, $24.11B of 2029 revenue at a 49% operating margin is $11.81B of operating profit, which an enterprise value of $246.7B costs 20.9 times; at a 40% margin it is $9.64B and 25.6 times.
against this
  • Four contributors is a thin consensus three years out and the estimate is as likely to be stale as wrong; the 2027 figure, with 18 contributors, puts the shares at about 40 times, which is a firmer number on a nearer year
  • A business with no debt, $13.3 billion of cash and a 45% operating margin can justify a premium to the market on quality alone, so the multiple is not evidence of mispricing by itself
  1. 2026-09-26editedre-struck at the 25 September 2026 close ($206.55): 26 times 2029 consensus earnings rather than 25, and about 40 times 2027 rather than 38
current state · 2026-09-26written 2026-09-11
C33טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Management holds the 2026 gross margin range at 62% to 64%, 'inclusive of mix and anticipated supply chain cost increases for memory and silicon', while raising the operating margin target to 48% to 49%.
against this

The 2025 outcome was 64.1% on a GAAP basis, so holding the range means accepting a fall of up to two points, and the first half of 2026 has already come in at 62.4%

forwardwritten 2026-09-11
C32עובדהhigh confidence
GAAP gross margin fell to 62.9% in the second quarter of 2026 from 65.2% a year earlier, and the 10-Q says the decrease 'was primarily driven by an increased proportion of our sales to large end customers who generally receive higher discounts'.
against this
  • Gross margin rose sequentially, from 61.9% in the first quarter of 2026, so the trend within 2026 is up rather than down
  • The chief financial officer attributes 20 to 30 basis points of that sequential improvement to a tariff refund rather than to the business, and says price increases will not reach the reported figure until late 2026 or 2027 because Arista is 'still going through a lot of backlog sales'
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-09-11
המכפיל מול המתחרים

המתחרות שהדוח השנתי של החברה עצמה מונה בשמן, וכל אחת מהן אומתה מול הדוח שלה. מדורגות לפי שווי החברה לכל דולר רווח תפעולי, מהזולה ליקרה:

סימולחברהשווי החברה לכל דולר רווח תפעולי
CSCOCisco Systems28.8×
CLSCelestica30.6×
EXTRExtreme Networks44.2×
ANETArista Networks56.7×
DELLDell Technologies לא בחציון27.5×
NVDANVIDIA לא בחציון27.7×
HPEHewlett Packard Enterprise Company מחוץ להשוואהללא תמחור

החציון של שלוש האחרות הוא 30.6.‏ Dell Technologies Inc. וגם NVIDIA Corporation מתחרות בה בקו מוצרים אחד בתוך חברה גדולה בהרבה, ולכן המכפיל שלהן אומר מעט על העסק הזה והן לא נספרות בחציון. Arista Networks,‏ Inc. היא היקרה ביותר מבין ארבע.

נתוני המתחרות מגיעים מספק נתונים, ולכן עדיף להסתכל על טווח הערכים בקבוצה כולה ולא על השוואה בין שתי חברות בלבד.

היקרה ביותר מבין המתחרות שדוחותיהן אומתו ביחס לדולר רווח תפעולי, בפער גדול. המיקום הזה הוא של Arista עצמה, לא של הקבוצה.

מתחרות פרטיות או זרות שאי אפשר לתמחר: Huawei Technologies Co., Ltd., Juniper Networks,‏ Inc., Darktrace,‏ ExtraHop,‏ Gigamon.

איפה אנחנו חלוקים על השוק

השוק חושב

Arista היא המנצחת הטהורה בתחום רשתות ה-AI, והמחיר משקף את מה שההובלה הזו שווה.

אנחנו חושבים

הצמיחה אמיתית ומוגבלת רק בגלל האספקה. ההובלה שהמחיר מגלם אינה מה שהספירה העצמאית מראה.

רוב האנליסטים ממליצים לקנות את המניה ואף אחד לא ממליץ למכור. אבל שתי עובדות פומביות לא משתלבות בסיפור הזה: הדירוג של Dell'Oro, והסיבה שהדוח עצמו נותן לירידה בשיעור הרווח.

השוק כבר פקפק בעבר: הוא מכר את המניה אחרי שלושה דוחות חזקים ב-15 חודשים, בגלל ריכוזיות, שיעור רווח ואספקה. המכירות עקפו את שלושת החששות; רק החשש משיעור הרווח התממש.

הראיות שסותרות את ההערכה שלנו ממשיות. Dell'Oro אומרת ש-Arista הייתה מדורגת גבוה יותר אילו ספרה גם את המכירות שחויבו וטרם הוכרו, ושיעור רווח גולמי שנשמר על 64% בזמן שהמכירות צומחות ביותר מ-30% יראה שההנחות מוגבלות.

מה אומרים האנליסטים
המלצות חיוביות
97%
מתוך 32, 1 בספטמבר
לפני ארבעה חודשים
91%
מתוך 33, 1 במאי
הראיות (באנגלית) · 7 טענות
C49עובדהmedium confidence
41 of 53 analysts rate the shares Buy, 12 Hold and none Sell.
  1. 2026-09-26editedre-read on the pack refreshed 26 September 2026: the split is unchanged at 41 Buy, 12 Hold, none Sell
current state · 2026-09-26written 2026-09-11
C09עובדהhigh confidence
Dell'Oro Group ranks Celestica first in Ethernet AI back-end switch sales in the second quarter of 2026, NVIDIA a close second, Arista third and Cisco fourth with the largest share gain of the quarter.
against this
  • Dell'Oro qualifies the same ranking in the same sentence: Arista 'would have been more closely tied if deferred AI revenue were included'. Arista's deferred revenue balance is $6.87B and it says the majority is product related, so the gap between recognised revenue and shipped demand is large and real
  • The ranking measures AI back-end switching only. Arista's front-end data centre, campus and routing revenue is the majority of the company and is not in it
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-09-11
C32עובדהhigh confidence
GAAP gross margin fell to 62.9% in the second quarter of 2026 from 65.2% a year earlier, and the 10-Q says the decrease 'was primarily driven by an increased proportion of our sales to large end customers who generally receive higher discounts'.
against this
  • Gross margin rose sequentially, from 61.9% in the first quarter of 2026, so the trend within 2026 is up rather than down
  • The chief financial officer attributes 20 to 30 basis points of that sequential improvement to a tariff refund rather than to the business, and says price increases will not reach the reported figure until late 2026 or 2027 because Arista is 'still going through a lot of backlog sales'
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-09-11
C23עובדהhigh confidence
Deferred revenue was $6,865.9 million at 30 June 2026 against $4,061.7 million a year earlier, and the company says the majority of the balance is product related.
against this

The chief financial officer says the balance 'can move significantly on a quarterly basis, independent of underlying business drivers', so it is not a backlog in the ordinary sense and a fall would not necessarily mean demand fell

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-09-11
C62עובדהhigh confidence
The shares fell in the session after three results that beat estimates: 6.4% on 19 February 2025, 8.6% on 5 November 2025 and 13.6% on 6 May 2026. Twenty sessions later they stood 24.0%, 16.3% and 2.5% below the close before each release.
against this

The twenty sessions after February 2025 ran into a broad technology sell-off, and the May 2026 fall followed a 34% run in the month before, so neither is all objection; a 7.1% fall after the November 2024 print is left out because no stated objection was found for it.

historical · February 2025 to June 2026written 2026-09-27
C63עובדהmedium confidence
Coverage on each day named a different worry: in February 2025 that Meta's share of revenue had fallen to about 15% from 20%; in November 2025 a gross margin guide of 62% to 63% and slower growth; in May 2026 capacity constraints and a price of 62 times earnings.
against this

Two accounts of 5 November 2025 disagree on the cause, one naming the margin guide and one the growth guide, so what the market objected to that day is what coverage said, not a measured fact.

historical · February 2025 to May 2026written 2026-09-27
C64עובדהhigh confidence
What followed each worry: 2025 revenue rose 28.6% to $9,005.7 million with the shrinking customer still 16% of it; the margin fall did arrive, to 62.9% in the second quarter of 2026; and the supply-limited 2026 guide was raised again, to $12.6 billion.
historical · fiscal 2025 to the second quarter of 2026written 2026-09-27
06

מה יכול להשתבש, ואיך נדע

הסיכונים

  • שלישית, לא ראשונה. Dell'Oro מדרגת את Arista אחרי Celestica ו-NVIDIA במתגי AI כבר שני רבעונים ברצף, כש-Cisco צוברת הכי הרבה קרקע.
  • שני לקוחות, 42% מהמכירות. אחד מהם היה 26% מהמכירות ב-2025, לעומת 18% ב-2023. המנכ״לית מצפה שרק אחד, אולי שניים, יעברו השנה את ה-10%.
  • בעלי עניין רק מוכרים. בעלי עניין מכרו 521 פעמים בשנה האחרונה, בהם המנכ״לית והמייסד השותף, ואף פעם לא קנו בשוק הפתוח.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 6 טענות
C09עובדהhigh confidence
Dell'Oro Group ranks Celestica first in Ethernet AI back-end switch sales in the second quarter of 2026, NVIDIA a close second, Arista third and Cisco fourth with the largest share gain of the quarter.
against this
  • Dell'Oro qualifies the same ranking in the same sentence: Arista 'would have been more closely tied if deferred AI revenue were included'. Arista's deferred revenue balance is $6.87B and it says the majority is product related, so the gap between recognised revenue and shipped demand is large and real
  • The ranking measures AI back-end switching only. Arista's front-end data centre, campus and routing revenue is the majority of the company and is not in it
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-09-11
C10עובדהhigh confidence
The same ranking held a quarter earlier: Dell'Oro put Celestica first, NVIDIA second, Arista third and Cisco fourth in Ethernet AI back-end switch sales in the first quarter of 2026.
historical · Q1 2026written 2026-09-11
C32עובדהhigh confidence
GAAP gross margin fell to 62.9% in the second quarter of 2026 from 65.2% a year earlier, and the 10-Q says the decrease 'was primarily driven by an increased proportion of our sales to large end customers who generally receive higher discounts'.
against this
  • Gross margin rose sequentially, from 61.9% in the first quarter of 2026, so the trend within 2026 is up rather than down
  • The chief financial officer attributes 20 to 30 basis points of that sequential improvement to a tariff refund rather than to the business, and says price increases will not reach the reported figure until late 2026 or 2027 because Arista is 'still going through a lot of backlog sales'
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-09-11
C26עובדהhigh confidence
Two customers were each more than 10% of revenue in each of the last three years. One was 26% of 2025 revenue against 20% in 2024 and 18% in 2023; the other was 16%, 15% and 21%. Together they were 42% of 2025 revenue.
  1. 2026-09-27editedReclassified from current state to historical: the three annual shares are closed periods that never move, and the June 2026 10-Q restates the same table with no interim figure, so it was never a statement about today.
historical · fiscal years 2023 to 2025written 2026-09-11
C27טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Ullal named Microsoft and Meta as Arista's 'two longest partners' and said of 2026 that 'I fully expect there to be 1, maybe 2 10% customers' - leaving open that one of the two falls below the disclosure threshold this year.
against this

The same answer says Arista remains 'very committed' to both and that she wants flexibility on 'who are the 10% customers as we ship', so the sentence is as consistent with a third customer arriving as with one of the two leaving

forwardwritten 2026-09-11
C51עובדהmedium confidence
Of the 536 insider transactions in the twelve months to 26 September 2026, 521 were sales - 6,988,583 shares - and none was an open-market purchase; the other 15 rows are 13 transfers the president filed under the 'other' code and one option exercise, reported as an acquisition and a disposal. The sellers include the co-founder and 10% owner, the president and chief technology officer, the chief executive, the chief financial officer and four other directors.
against this

Only one option exercise appears among the 536 rows, so these are sales of shares already held rather than same-day exercises - but long-tenured founders and officers of a company whose shares have risen sell under pre-arranged plans as a matter of course, and the transaction codes cannot distinguish a plan sale from a discretionary one

  1. 2026-09-26editedre-struck on the pack refreshed 26 September 2026 (521 sales and 6,988,583 shares, from 517 and 6,759,250), and corrected: the claim said every transaction was a sale, but the window also holds transfers and an option exercise, and the sellers are four outside directors plus the chief financial officer rather than 'five directors'
current state · 2026-09-26written 2026-09-11
שאלות פתוחות
  • האם המקום השלישי הוא איבוד קרקע או ציוד שעדיין ממתין לקבלה. אף אחד לא מפרסם את הנתון שיכריע.
  • כמה מה-6.87 מיליארד דולר שחויבו וטרם הוכרו הוא ציוד AI. החברה אומרת רק שרובו מוצרים.
  • כמה מרוויח עסק ה-AI. חברת Arista מדווחת כמגזר אחד, ולכן אין נתון רבעוני מדווח על ה-AI.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 3 טענות
C09עובדהhigh confidence
Dell'Oro Group ranks Celestica first in Ethernet AI back-end switch sales in the second quarter of 2026, NVIDIA a close second, Arista third and Cisco fourth with the largest share gain of the quarter.
against this
  • Dell'Oro qualifies the same ranking in the same sentence: Arista 'would have been more closely tied if deferred AI revenue were included'. Arista's deferred revenue balance is $6.87B and it says the majority is product related, so the gap between recognised revenue and shipped demand is large and real
  • The ranking measures AI back-end switching only. Arista's front-end data centre, campus and routing revenue is the majority of the company and is not in it
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-09-11
C23עובדהhigh confidence
Deferred revenue was $6,865.9 million at 30 June 2026 against $4,061.7 million a year earlier, and the company says the majority of the balance is product related.
against this

The chief financial officer says the balance 'can move significantly on a quarterly basis, independent of underlying business drivers', so it is not a backlog in the ordinary sense and a fall would not necessarily mean demand fell

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-09-11
C44עובדהhigh confidence
Arista reports as a single segment: its 10-Q says the chief operating decision maker 'reviews financial information presented on a consolidated basis', so there is no filed split between AI, data centre, campus and routing revenue.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-09-11

מה ישנה את ההערכה שלנו

  1. ניטרלית→אטרקטיביתהביקוש נשמר והמכפיל יורד

    נדרשים כל אלה:

    • ○צמיחה במכירות מעל 20% עם שיעור רווח תפעולי של 45% ומעלה, ויתרת המכירות שחויבו וטרם הוכרו ממשיכה לעלות.ייבדק בדוח הבא, עד 3 בנובמבר
    • ○המחיר יורד לכ-30 פעמים הרווח התפעולי החזוי לשנה הזו, כך שהמכירות כבר לא צריכות להכפיל את עצמן עד 2029.≈153.38 דולר היום, 26% מתחת לסגירה האחרונה
  2. ניטרלית→לא אטרקטיביתתפנית בריכוזיות או בדירוג

    מספיק אחד מאלה:

    • ○אחד משני הלקוחות הגדולים ביותר יורד מתחת ל-10% מהמכירות כי קנה פחות.ייבדק בדוח הבא, עד 3 בנובמבר
    • ○Dell'Oro מדרגת את Arista רביעית או נמוך יותר, או ששיעור הרווח הגולמי נשאר מתחת ל-62% שני רבעונים ברצף בגלל תמהיל הלקוחות.ייבדק בדוח הבא, עד 3 בנובמבר
נטעה גם אם
  • המכירות שחויבו וטרם הוכרו יורדות שני רבעונים ברצף בזמן שהצמיחה מאטה.
  • צמיחת המכירות מתייצבת מתחת ל-20% ובמקביל שיעור הרווח התפעולי יורד מתחת ל-45%.

מה בהמשך

  • 3 בנובמבר 2026 תוצאות הרבעון השלישי של 2026: שיעור הרווח הגולמי מול 62.5% וההכנסות מול 3.3 מיליארד דולר שההנהלה צפתה, לצד ההכנסות הנדחות, והאם הרכישה החוזרת מתחדשת.
כל האירועים הצפויים
  • 3 בנובמבר 2026 תוצאות הרבעון השלישי של 2026: שיעור הרווח הגולמי מול 62.5% וההכנסות מול 3.3 מיליארד דולר שההנהלה צפתה, לצד ההכנסות הנדחות, והאם הרכישה החוזרת מתחדשת.
  • דצמבר 2026 ניסויים במתגים של 1.6 טרהביט עם כמה לקוחות גדולים מאוד: האם Arista ממשיכה להקדים בדור אחד אצל הקונים הגדולים ביותר. ייצור צפוי רק ב-2027, כך ששיבוש יתגלה בניסויים לפני שיופיע במכירות.
  • פברואר 2027 תוצאות הרבעון הרביעי של 2026 ודוח ה-10-K לשנת 2026: האם תחזית ה-12.6 מיליארד דולר מומשה, כמה לקוחות עוברים 10% וכמה גדל הגדול ביותר, ומה תחזית שיעור הרווח ל-2027.
  • אפריל 2027 דוח הזימון לאסיפה של 2027: מה שילמו הבונוס והמניות הצמודות לביצועים ב-2026 ביחס ליעדי ההכנסות והרווח התפעולי, והאם ההצבעה של 62% על השכר (say-on-pay) שינתה את התכנון.
מה קרה מאז
נכתבה
11 בספטמבר
המחיר בעת כתיבת התזה
$206.55
25 בספטמבר
  • 8 באוקטוברחדשותArista משיקה מערכות Ethernet בתצורת מתקן (rack) להרחבת תשתיות AI, עם שותפים מוזכרים אך בלי לקוחות. ההערכה לא השתנתהArista הכריזה על ארכיטקטורות Ethernet בתצורת מתקן להרחבה אנכית ואופקית של תשתיות AI.
  • 5 באוקטוברבדיקת התזההטיעון בעד ההשקעה מופיע עכשיו מתחת לשורה התחתונהאחרי פיילוט בחמש חברות, הבעלים ביקש להוסיף את הטיעון בעד ההשקעה לכל תזה.
  • 4 באוקטוברבדיקת התזהרשימת הבדיקות של הבעלים: מקורות ההכנסה, עלות הצמיחה, ההנהלה, אירועים צפוייםרשימת הבדיקות של הבעלים הראתה שהשיטה שותקת בשאלות מי מנהל את החברה, כמה עולה הצמיחה, מאיפה מגיע הכסף ואילו אירועים צפויים בתאריכים ידועים. בסבב הזה מילאנו את ארבעת הנושאים מתוך דוח הזימון לאסיפה והדוחות.
  • 27 בספטמברבדיקת התזהשלוש ירידות חדות בעבר ונתון של אחד הקונים נוספו; ההערכה לא השתנתהלא קרה שום דבר חדש. הבדיקה השלימה את התיעוד: השוק מכר אחרי שלושה דוחות שעקפו תחזיות בשלוש דאגות שונות, ורק הדאגה משיעור הרווח התממשה.
  • 26 בספטמברבדיקת התזההמחיר נקבע מחדש על 206.55 דולר; שתי טעויות נתונים תוקנו, ההערכה לא השתנתהתיקון נתונים עדכן את המספרים. המניה נסחרת ב-54 פעמים הרווח התפעולי ב-12 החודשים האחרונים ולא ב-52, ההכנסות עקפו את התחזיות בשבעה מתוך שמונה דוחות ולא בשמונה, ושום דבר שההערכה נשענת עליו לא השתנה.
  • 11 בספטמברהתזה נכתבהניטרלית, ביטחון בינוניספירה עצמאית מדרגת את Arista שלישית במתגי AI, בעוד המחיר משקף מובילה ששומרת על שיעור הרווח.
  • 11 בספטמברבדיקת התזהנמצא שהנעילה לא תופסת את שני הלקוחות הגדולים ביותר. ההערכה לא השתנתהשניהם כותבים תוכנת מתגים משלהם, ולכן הנעילה לא מחזיקה 42% מהמכירות. אבל שניהם המשיכו לקנות עשור, והטיעון על המחיר לא נפגע.

נבדקה גם פעם אחת, ללא ממצא חדש שמצריך פעולה.

מקורות 29

Where this came from

Sources - 29

Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.

  1. S01primarycompany filing2026-02-17
    Item 1 in full - the product and EOS description, the Competition section naming Cisco, Dell/EMC, Extreme, HPE, Huawei, Juniper, Nvidia and white box vendors, the Broadcom sole-silicon dependency, the three contract manufacturers, the customer concentration table and the qualification-cycle language
    backsC01C02C03C04C05C12C26C59C64C67C71
  2. S02primarycompany filing2026-08-05
    the statements, the balance sheet, the deferred revenue and remaining performance obligation note, the $9.7B purchase commitment note, the buyback disclosure, the single-segment note, and the MD&A sentence attributing the gross margin fall to large-customer discounts
    backsC02C05C21C22C23C24C25C26C28C32C36C38C40C41C42C43C44C48C53C59C64C66C67
  3. S03primarycompany filing2026-08-04
    the GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliation, the gross and operating margin series against the prior year, and the third-quarter guidance
    backsC08C28C32C43C53
  4. S04primarytranscript2026-08-04
    Arista second quarter 2026 earnings call transcript
    the $12.6B full-year guide and its two prior versions, the AI and campus goals, the purchase-commitment history, the supply-chain answers, and fourteen analyst questions including the white box, scale-up and visibility exchanges
    Given our improving stance in supply chain, we are excited to increase our guidance for the third time this year to $12.6 billion revenue in 2026. We are now projecting 40% annual growth, which is an incremental $2.1 billion over our Analyst Day goal of $10.5 billion and an incremental $1.1 billion over our recent projections of $11.5 billion in May of 2026. ... Arista is leaning in with our increased multiyear purchase commitments, now almost tripling from a year ago at $3.6 billion to approximately $9.7 billion by the end of Q2 2026. ... we still have the same kind of 2 quarters of visibility that we referred to. But what we would say is given where we are at this time of year, Jayshree and I are guiding based on what we're confident we can get the supply for. ... The industry is going to have a 2-year problem. I don't think we get out of it as an industry until 2028. ... we remain very committed to our 2 longest partners, Microsoft and Meta. And I fully expect there to be 1, maybe 2 10% customers. ... where NVIDIA provides the full vertical stack and usually, that's an NVLink. So there's very little participation from Arista or anybody else's scale up. ... Our AI fabrics momentum with Etherlink switches now exceeds 100 cumulative customers from the initial 4 to 5 customers I spoke of in 2024. ... On the 1.6T, if I -- I'll go back, history is always a great lesson for what will happen. If I look at the 800 T, we were in trials in '23, '24 and the real ramp came to us in '25 and '26. So it takes about 6 months, maybe even a year sometimes. ... So we will be in trials in the second half of this year. In terms of customers, it will be single digits, but very large customers. And I think the real production will still be in 2027. ... our 2026 campus revenue goal is at least $1.25 billion and our AI fabrics goal is at least $3.5 billion. For gross margin, we are maintaining the range for the fiscal year of 62% to 64%, inclusive of mix and anticipated supply chain cost increases for memory and silicon. ... Our total deferred revenue balance was approximately $6.9 billion, up from $6.2 billion in the prior quarter. The majority of the deferred revenue balance is product related. ... In the quarter, we did not repurchase our common stock. Of the $1.5 billion repurchase program approved in May 2025, $817.9 million remain available for repurchase in future quarters.
    backsC06C07C14C23C27C30C33C36C39C42C54C64
  5. S05primarycompany filing2026-02-12
    the full year 2025 figures, the Gartner placements, the VeloCloud acquisition, the executive appointments and the first-quarter 2026 guidance
    backsC08C21C29C46C48
  6. S06primaryindustry data2026-09-03
    the vendor ranking on the quarter Arista has just reported, the front-end/back-end crossover, and the supply-constrained call
    REDWOOD CITY, Calif. - September 03, 2026 - ... 2Q 2026 marked a major inflection point as switch sales in AI back-end networks surpassed those in front-end networks for the first time. ... "AI back-end networks have grown at such a rapid pace that, within just three years of their emergence, spending surpassed that of the large, well-established front-end network market" ... "We expect the market to remain supply-constrained, rather than demand-constrained, for at least the next one-to-two years." ... Celestica retained the leading position in Ethernet AI back-end switch sales, followed closely by NVIDIA. Arista ranked third, but would have been more closely tied if deferred AI revenue were included. Cisco gained the most share and ranked fourth. ... 800 Gbps switches accounted for the vast majority of the Ethernet switch shipments and revenues in AI back-end networks during the quarter. 1.6 Tbps began sampling and is expected to ramp in the second half of 2026.
    backsC09C18C39C58
  7. S07primaryindustry data2026-06-02
    the same ranking a quarter earlier, the Ethernet share of AI-cluster switch sales, and the InfiniBand rebound
    REDWOOD CITY, Calif. - June 02, 2026 - ... Ethernet switch sales in AI back-end networks more than doubled and accounted for about two-thirds of data center switch sales in AI clusters during the first quarter 2026. ... "InfiniBand sales more than tripled during the quarter, supported by the ramp of 800 Gbps switches shipping with NVIDIA's Blackwell Ultra platform. However, while greenfield deployments may have contributed to some of this growth, we believe a significant portion of this demand was tied to upgrades of the installed base in brownfield deployments rather than greenfield expansion." ... Celestica regained the leading position during the quarter, followed closely by NVIDIA. Arista ranked third, despite a significant portion of its AI-related product revenue being deferred. Including Arista's deferred revenue for the quarter, its AI back-end network sales would have been very close to those of Celestica and NVIDIA. Cisco recorded the largest share gain during the quarter and ranked fourth.
    backsC10C13C19
  8. S08primaryindustry data2026-02-04
    the size of the prize measured from outside the company, the port-speed migration, and the scale-up read on NVLink, UALink and Ethernet
    REDWOOD CITY, Calif. - February 04, 2026 - ... spending on data center switches deployed in AI back-end networks is forecast to surpass $100 billion by 2030, driven by expanding deployments across scale-up, scale-out, and scale-across domains. While multiple technologies are expected to coexist and see strong adoption over the forecast period, Ethernet is projected to dominate both the scale-up and scale-out segments of the market. ... "Scale-up compute fabrics have been historically dominated by proprietary fabrics such as NVLink but just as Ethernet prevailed over InfiniBand in large-scale scale-out environments, we are now seeing alternative technologies such as UALink and Ethernet gain momentum in scale-up compute fabrics." ... The majority of switch ports deployed in AI back-end networks have shifted to 800 Gbps, and are expected to be 1600 Gbps by 2027 and 3200 Gbps by 2030. ... Neo Cloud will be the fastest growing customer segment over the next five years.
    backsC18C19
  9. S09primarycompany filing2026-09-02
    a rival naming Arista back, its own AI-infrastructure positioning, and the $34,668M of networking product revenue that sets the perimeter for the cohort
    backsC17
  10. S10primarycompany filing2026-08-17
    a rival's own ranking of the switching market, which puts Cisco, HPE and Huawei above Arista and names Arista only 'to a lesser extent'
    backsC16
  11. S11primarycompany filing2026-08-26
    the single Compute & Networking segment, and the absence of any separate networking revenue line - the disclosure that would size this competitor no longer exists
    backsC15
  12. S12primarycompany filing2026-08-26
    the scale of the memory pre-buy by the largest buyer in the market Arista is also buying memory in
    Our commitments increased from $119 billion last quarter to $279 billion, primarily related to the procurement of memory.
    backsC15C38
  13. S13primarycompany filing2026-02-27
    the white box switch business described by the company Dell'Oro ranks first in Ethernet AI back-end switching, and the CCS segment revenue that sets its perimeter
    backsC11
  14. S14primarycompany filing2026-07-30
    a named Arista customer's own filed capital plan for 2026 - the demand this thesis depends on, stated by the party that will spend it
    backsC20
  15. S15primarycompany filing2026-09-04
    the Networking segment revenue and its campus, routing and data-centre split, which sets the perimeter for the cohort after the Juniper acquisition
    read, but no claim rests on it
  16. S16primaryvendor data2026-09-26
    Research pack, frozen at content/ANET/research-pack.json (refreshed 2026-09-26)
    the market tier: price, market value, the 252-day return and the theme comparison, the analyst split and consensus estimates, the insider filings, FINRA short interest, the volatility bucket, and the filed competitor cohort's multiples
    backsC46C48C49C50C51C52C53
  17. S17primaryindustry data2022-04-14
    who created the competing operating system, how widely it runs, and the premier member list - which does not include Arista
    Created by Microsoft for its Azure data centers, SONiC is an open source network operating system (NOS) based on Linux that runs on over 100 different switches from multiple vendors and ASICs. ... "Microsoft founded SONiC to bring high reliability and fast innovation to the routers in Azure cloud data centers. We created it as open source so the entire networking ecosystem would grow stronger. SONiC already runs on millions of ports in the networks of cloud scalers, enterprises, and fintechs," said Dave Maltz, Technical Fellow and Corporate Vice President, Microsoft Azure Networking. ... SONiC brings a strong existing ecosystem, with premier members including Alibaba, Broadcom, Dell, Google, Intel, Microsoft, NVIDIA and 50+ global partners.
    backsC55
  18. S18primarycompany release2017-03-08
    the customer's own account of why it wrote its own switch software, in its own words
    Running one of the largest clouds in the world, Microsoft has gained a lot of insight into building and managing a global, high performance, highly available, and secure network. Experience has taught us that with hundreds of datacenters and tens of thousands of switches, we needed to: Use best-of-breed switching hardware for the various tiers of the network. Deploy new features without impacting end users.
    backsC55
  19. S19primarycompany release2020-05-05
    Arista's own answer to the substitute: sell the hardware into it, and treat migration back to EOS as the upside
    Arista Networks (NYSE:ANET) today strengthened its commitment to open network software with the introduction of Arista switches Powered by SONiC (Software for Open Networking in the Cloud). ... Distribution of Arista switches Powered by SONiC will be available as a network operating system in addition to Arista's standard EOS offering. Customers have the option of choosing between Arista EOS and Arista SAI with SONiC software on these systems, and as an added benefit, Arista platforms running SAI can be easily migrated to EOS, providing a flexible path to the mainstream, feature-rich EOS software for broader network roles. ... The open source SONiC operating system is already available and in production on Arista switching platforms for select customers.
    backsC56
  20. S20primarycompany release2015-03-10
    the second of Arista's two largest customers building its own switch and its own switch operating system, eleven years ago
    Last summer, we shared that the networking team at Facebook was developing its own data center switches and switch software. The switches and software are now in production across multiple data centers. Today, we are happy to announce the initial release of our Facebook open switching system (code-named "FBOSS") project on GitHub and our proposed contribution of the specification for our top-of-rack switch (code-named "Wedge") to the OCP networking project.
    backsC57
  21. S21primarycompany release2021-11-09
    the customer co-developing an Arista switch alongside its own, and naming Celestica as the manufacturer of its in-house designs
    Meta has developed two next-generation 200G fabric switches, the Minipack2 (the latest version of Minipack, Meta's own modular network switch) and the Arista 7388X5, in partnership with Arista Networks. ... The Arista 7388X5 is also based on the Broadcom Tomahawk4 25.6T switch ASIC, with versions of the 7388X5 also utilizing a Credo chipset. ... Both the Wedge400 and 400C are manufactured by Celestica and are open platforms that developers of any size, from startups to large ISPs, can utilize for their own projects. ... In the past, FBOSS, Meta's own network operating system for controlling network switches, has utilized the specific API provided by the ASIC vendor. Now, with FBOSS being adapted to OCP SAI and deployed at scale in the Meta network, we can work with more silicon vendors.
    backsC58
  22. S22primaryother2024-07-31
    a buyer's own count of what network faults cost it: 35 of 419 unexpected interruptions in 54 days of training came from switches and cables, on a fabric that names the Arista 7800
    Llama 3 405B is trained on up to 16K H100 GPUs, each running at 700W TDP with 80GB HBM3 ... Llama 3 405B used RDMA over Converged Ethernet (RoCE) fabric based on the Arista 7800 and Minipack2 Open Compute Project OCP rack switches. ... The synchronous nature of training makes it less fault-tolerant-a single GPU failure may require a restart of the entire job. ... During a 54-day snapshot period of pre-training, we experienced a total of 466 job interruptions. Of these, 47 were planned interruptions due to automated maintenance operations such as firmware upgrades or operator-initiated operations like configuration or dataset updates. The remaining 419 were unexpected interruptions ... Network Switch/Cable | Network | 35 | 8.4% ... Despite these challenges, for Llama 3, we achieved higher than 90% effective training time while supporting automated cluster maintenance
    backsC61
  23. S23secondarynews2025-02-19
    the objection stated on the day of the February 2025 fall: the Meta account shrinking
    Meta Platforms is one of Arista's largest, responsible for roughly 15% of the company's revenue. However, that figure is down from 20% last year.
    backsC63
  24. S24secondarynews2025-11-05
    the objection stated on the day of the November 2025 fall: the fourth-quarter gross margin guide
    Q4 revenue: $2.3-$2.4 billion (midpoint $2.35B vs. $2.33B expected). Gross margin: 62-63%, slightly below the previous quarter. ... a softer margin outlook, in-line revenue guidance, and a broader tech-sector pullback prompted short-term profit-taking
    backsC63
  25. S25secondarynews2025-11-05
    a second, independent account of the same day naming the growth guide rather than the margin
    Arista expects to generate between $2.3 billion and $2.4 billion in revenue in the fourth quarter, which represents year-over-year growth of about 22% at the midpoint. This expected slowdown could be what's driving the stock lower
    backsC63
  26. S26secondarynews2026-05-05
    the objection stated on the day of the May 2026 fall: the multiple and the supply constraint
    The stock is currently selling for 62 times earnings and 39 times next year's expected earnings, a lofty multiple to be sure. ... Add to that the company's capacity constraints, and fair-weather investors are engaging in a bout of profit-taking.
    backsC63
  27. S27primaryvendor data2026-09-27
    FMP historical end-of-day prices for ANET, September 2023 to 25 September 2026
    the close before and after each of twelve results releases, and the change twenty and sixty sessions on
    backsC62
  28. S28primarytranscript2026-02-12
    Arista fourth quarter 2025 earnings call transcript
    the 2025 revenue split by customer sector and by product line, the 2026 AI and campus goals as first set, and the 2025 buyback total and average price
    Shifting to annual customer sector revenue for 2025, cloud and AI titans contributed significantly at 48%. Enterprise and financials recorded at 32%, while AI and specialty providers, which now includes Apple, Oracle, and their initiatives, as well as emerging Neo Cloud, performed strongly at 20%. ... Arista's core sector revenue was driven at 65% of revenue. ... The combined campus and routing adjacencies together contribute approximately 18% of revenue. Our third and final category is the network software and services based on subscription models, such as A-Care, CloudVision, observability, advanced security, and even some branch edge services. ... Arista's subscription-based network services and software revenue contributed approximately 17%, and please note that it does not include perpetual software licenses that are otherwise included in core or adjacent markets. ... Within fiscal 2025, we repurchased $1,600,000,000 of our common stock at an average price of $100.63 per share.
    backsC65
  29. S29primarycompany filing2026-04-16
    beneficial ownership as of April 2, 2026, the executive officers and director biographies, the 2025 Bonus Plan metrics, weights and targets, the PRSU goals and 2025 achievement, the CEO's outstanding awards and the 2025 say-on-pay result
    backsC68C69C70
נבנה מתוך content/ANET/thesis.json · התזה נבדקה לאחרונה ב-27 בספטמבר 2026. העמוד מסביר את החברה; הוא לא אומר כמה לשלם, מתי לקנות או באיזה היקף. התרגום לעברית נעשה בבינה מלאכותית, והנוסח האנגלי הוא הקובע.