EQT

השורה התחתונה

הציון שלנו: ניטרלית. EQT קודחת גז טבעי בפנסילבניה ובמערב וירג׳יניה, ובניגוד למתחרות הגדולות שלה היא מחזיקה גם בצינורות שמובילים אותו, ומשם מגיעה רוב הרווח. העסק טוב ומנוהל היטב, והחוב שלה ירד מהר. אבל היא יקרה יותר ממרבית המתחרות ובו בזמן צומחת הכי לאט, והמדד היחיד שנראה זול משווה אותה לחברה קטנה יותר מלפני מיזוג. לכן המחיר מלא, לא זול. ההערכה תלויה בכך שעסקאות הייצוא והצינורות המותנות יהפכו לחתומות ושהחוב ימשיך לרדת. ב-26 באוקטובר היא הסכימה לרכוש את Range Resources תמורת מניות.

הטיעון לטווח הארוךיצוא הגז ומרכזי נתונים שצורכים חשמל רב מחפשים עוד גז אמריקאי. ל-EQT יש צינורות לשווקים האלה, אבל כדי להרוויח מהם עליה להפוך את העסקאות המותנות שלה לחתומות.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 9 טענות

C01עובדהhigh confidence

EQT Corporation is a vertically integrated natural gas company with upstream, gathering and transmission operations focused in the Appalachian Basin. As of December 31, 2025, EQT held 28.0 Tcfe of proved natural gas, NGLs and oil reserves across approximately 2.3 million gross acres and approximately 2,945 miles of pipeline infrastructure, plus an equity investment in Series A of the Mountain Valley Pipeline, LLC. EQT describes itself as 'the only large-scale, integrated natural gas producer in the United States.' 93% of total proved reserves, 91% of proved developed reserves and over 99% of proved undeveloped reserves are in the Marcellus Shale.

sourceEQT Corporation Form 10-K for FY2025primary

historical · as of 2025-12-31written 2026-08-24

C03עובדהhigh confidence

For Q2 2026, EQT's three reportable segments were Upstream (77.5% of segment revenue, 26.1% of segment operating income, 6.6% operating margin), Gathering (15.9% of segment revenue, 51.7% of segment operating income, 63.5% operating margin) and Transmission (6.6% of segment revenue, 22.2% of segment operating income, 65.9% operating margin) - the combined Gathering and Transmission segments are 22.5% of segment revenue but 73.9% of segment operating income. The segment revenue sum ($2,146M) exceeds consolidated revenue ($1,810M) by $336M, which the 10-Q's own segment note attributes to intersegment eliminations; the research pack's automated segments tool otherwise reports segments.status as 'ok'.

sourceEQT Corporation Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026primary Portfolio-management research pack (vendor_fundamentals…secondary

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-08-24

C13עובדהhigh confidence

EQT's net debt fell from $9.1 billion at 2024-12-31 to $7.7 billion at 2025-12-31 to $5.5 billion at 2026-06-30 ($9,122M, $7,690M and $5,543M in the releases' reconciliations) - down 28% in the two quarters to 30 June 2026 and 39% since the end of 2024 (total debt $5.7 billion at Q2 2026, versus $7.8 billion at YE2025). At Q2 2026, EQT had $52 million drawn on its $3.5 billion revolving credit facility and total liquidity of approximately $3.6 billion (excluding Eureka Midstream's separate facility); subsequent to quarter-end, EQT repaid $115 million of 2026 debentures. At 30 September 2026 the 10-Q shows total debt of $5,590.5M and cash of $78.7M, about $5.5B net, little changed from June (C35).

sourceEQT Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results (8-K Ex-99.1)primary EQT Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results and…primary Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026primary

2026-09-26editedStated the size of the fall: 28% in two quarters and 39% in eighteen months, from the net-debt reconciliations in the Q2 2026 and FY2025 releases. The searched note had called it roughly 40% over two quarters, which the thesis's header repeated as 'nearly halved'.
2026-10-28editedthird-quarter 10-Q: net debt about $5.5B, flat on the June figure, so the fall has levelled before the Range deal

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-08-24

C11עובדהhigh confidence

Q2 2026 results beat guidance across every guided metric: sales volume of 634 Bcfe (above the high end of guidance); capital expenditures of $666 million (9% below the low end); realized-pricing differential of $(0.67) (favorable to guidance); total per-unit operating costs of $1.03/Mcfe (low end of guidance); net cash from operating activities of $1,048 million. EQT drilled the longest lateral in shale-development history (more than 29,000 feet) while staying 100% in zone, and set a new basin-wide 24-hour drilling record and a new company 48-hour record. EQT raised full-year 2026 total sales volume guidance to 2,375-2,450 Bcfe (from an original 2,275-2,375 Bcfe issued with the FY2025 results) and reduced full-year maintenance capex guidance by $25 million.

sourceEQT Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results (8-K Ex-99.1)primary EQT Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results and…primary

2026-10-23editedEQT's own notice of 7 October puts the third-quarter results on 27 October; the 20 October refresh date came from a vendor estimate
2026-10-28editedrefresh date rolled: the third-quarter release of 27 October beat on costs and capital and is read in the 27 October review

current state · 2026-07-21written 2026-08-24

C21עובדהhigh confidence

On the filed-competitor cohort (RRC, AR, EXE) at the 25 September 2026 close: EQT's EV/EBITDA, the frame metric, is 6.2x against a two-peer median of 5.35x, between Expand Energy (3.6x) and Range (7.1x), rank 2 of 3; EV/EBIT is 9.3x against 7.85x (rank 3 of 3, dearest; Expand 6.6x, Range 9.1x); EV/Sales is 4.0x against a three-peer median of 2.7x (rank 4 of 4, priciest); P/E is 11.2x against 10.0x (rank 4 of 4); P/S is 3.4x against 1.9x (rank 4 of 4); P/FCF is 8.4x against 7.7x (rank 4 of 4); P/B is 1.3x, level with the 1.3x median (rank 2 of 4); gross margin is 68.4% against 47.9% and operating margin 43.2% against 29.75% (richest on both). Antero is still withheld from EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT and operating margin, its vendor operating margin (21.0%) sitting 3.7 points below its filed one (24.7%). EQT's own TTM revenue growth (16.0%) and ROE (11.7%) are both the lowest of the four-name cohort.

sourceEQT Corporation Form 10-K for FY2025primary Portfolio-management research pack, refreshed 2026-09-26…secondary

2026-09-26editedRe-struck on the pack refreshed 2026-09-26 at the 25 September close. The original said EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT and operating margin could not be compared because Antero and Expand Energy were both withheld. Expand's withholding was a defect in this repo's filed-series reader, fixed 2026-09-26: it had put Expand's filed operating margin at 29.8%, where the corrected filed figure is 26.9%, within a point of the vendor's 26.0%. With Expand priced, the frame metric reads for the first time: EQT sits between its two priced rivals on EV/EBITDA, not at the top, and is the dearest on EV/EBIT.

current state · 2026-09-25written 2026-08-24

C20עובדהhigh confidence

EQT's annual revenue was $3.06B (FY2021), $7.50B (FY2022), $6.91B (FY2023), $5.27B (FY2024) and $8.64B (FY2025, +63.9% year over year) - the FY2021-2024 window that anchors the research pack's 'prior-fiscal-years median' comparison spans the 2024 Equitrans Midstream Merger, so it blends a materially smaller, pre-merger EQT (without the Gathering and Transmission segments) into the historical base. FY2025 is the first full year with those segments consolidated for the entire period.

sourceEQT Corporation Form 10-K for FY2025primary EQT Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results and…primary Portfolio-management research pack (market tier: price,…secondary

historical · FY2021-FY2025written 2026-08-24

C19עובדהhigh confidence

Per the research pack's market-tier valuation time series at the 25 September 2026 close, EQT's TTM EV/EBITDA is 6.02x against a prior-fiscal-years median of 9.17x (below its own history); TTM P/E is 11.16x against a 7.77x prior median (above its own history); TTM P/B is 1.26x against a 1.06x prior median; TTM FCF yield is 12% against a 9% prior median; ROE is 12% against a 5% prior median; ROIC is 8% against a 4% prior median.

sourceEQT Corporation Form 10-K for FY2025primary Portfolio-management research pack, refreshed 2026-09-26…secondary

against this

See C20: the 'prior-fiscal-years' comparison window spans EQT's 2024 Equitrans merger, so the EV/EBITDA reading compares a post-merger current multiple against a blended pre- and post-merger history rather than a like-for-like base - the apparent discount should not be read at face value without that caveat.

2026-09-26editedRe-struck on the research pack refreshed 2026-09-26 at the 25 September close ($50.81 against $53.72 in the original pack): EV/EBITDA 6.32x to 6.02x, P/E 11.81x to 11.16x, P/B 1.33x to 1.26x, FCF yield 11% to 12%. The prior-year medians, ROE and ROIC are unchanged.

current state · 2026-09-25written 2026-08-24

C07עובדהhigh confidence

As of December 31, 2025, EQT had entered three 20-year LNG offtake agreements for an aggregate 4.5 MTPA (3.0 MTPA expected to commence as early as 2030, 1.5 MTPA in 2031) plus a 20-year LNG tolling agreement for up to 2.0 MTPA expected to commence no earlier than 2030. Of the capacity that may commence in 2030, 1.0 MTPA of the offtake agreements and the entire 2.0 MTPA tolling commitment relate to projects that have not yet reached final investment decision. With the Q2 2026 print, EQT signed an additional 5-year LNG offtake SPA with an undisclosed 'large Asian integrated energy company' for 0.5 MTPA sourced from Gulf Coast facilities beginning 2028, expected to add approximately $45 million to 2028 free cash flow at recent strip pricing. No individual LNG counterparty is named in any of the four agreements.

sourceEQT Corporation Form 10-K for FY2025primary EQT Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results (8-K Ex-99.1)primary

against this

1.0 MTPA of the 4.5 MTPA offtake total and all 2.0 MTPA of the tolling commitment are explicitly pre-final-investment-decision, meaning roughly 43% of the aggregate 7.0 MTPA LNG-linked volume disclosed is conditional on projects that may not proceed, and none of the four counterparties is named, which limits independent verification of counterparty credit quality or deal terms.

2026-10-23editedEQT's own notice of 7 October puts the third-quarter results on 27 October; the 20 October refresh date came from a vendor estimate
2026-10-28editedthird-quarter 10-Q and release show no new LNG decision; refresh date rolled to the fourth-quarter results

current state · 2026-07-21written 2026-08-24

C33עובדהhigh confidence

On 25 October 2026 Range signed a merger agreement under which EQT will acquire it for stock only: each Range share becomes 0.987 EQT shares, Range holders will own about 27% of the combined company and EQT holders 73%. Completion needs both companies' shareholder votes, antitrust clearance and an effective registration statement; the end date is 25 October 2027, extendable to 25 April 2028; the break fees are $423M payable by Range and $1,148M payable by EQT. Range's chief executive Dennis Degner and one other Range-chosen director join an EQT board of 12.

sourceRange Resources Corporation Form 8-K of 2026-10-26 (Item…primary

current state · 2026-10-26written 2026-10-26

01

החברה

EQT מפיקה גז טבעי מתוך Marcellus Shale, שכבת סלע בפנסילבניה ובמערב וירג'יניה שמחזיקה 93% מהעתודות המוכחות שלה. באופן חריג בענף היא גם הבעלים של 2,945 מייל צינורות שאוספים את הגז מהבארות שלה ומעבירים אותו הלאה, ומחזיקה בחלק של Mountain Valley Pipeline, שמגיע דרומה עד וירג'יניה.

יצרנית מתחרה משלמת לאחר על השלב הזה. הלקוחות של EQT הם סיטונאי גז, יצואניות ותחנות כוח.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 2 טענות

C01עובדהhigh confidence

EQT Corporation is a vertically integrated natural gas company with upstream, gathering and transmission operations focused in the Appalachian Basin. As of December 31, 2025, EQT held 28.0 Tcfe of proved natural gas, NGLs and oil reserves across approximately 2.3 million gross acres and approximately 2,945 miles of pipeline infrastructure, plus an equity investment in Series A of the Mountain Valley Pipeline, LLC. EQT describes itself as 'the only large-scale, integrated natural gas producer in the United States.' 93% of total proved reserves, 91% of proved developed reserves and over 99% of proved undeveloped reserves are in the Marcellus Shale.

sourceEQT Corporation Form 10-K for FY2025primary

historical · as of 2025-12-31written 2026-08-24

C04עובדהhigh confidence

EQT holds an equity method investment in MVP A, which owns MVP Mainline: a 303-mile, 42-inch diameter natural gas interstate pipeline with total capacity of 2.0 Bcf/day, spanning from Wetzel County, West Virginia to Pittsylvania County, Virginia. EQT has access to approximately 1.29 Bcf/day of firm pipeline takeaway capacity on MVP Mainline, contracted through June 30, 2044; as of December 31, 2025, MVP Mainline's firm transmission and storage contracts (across all shippers) had a weighted average remaining term of approximately 19 years. EQT's total firm pipeline takeaway capacity, including MVP Mainline, is approximately 4.3 Bcf/day.

sourceEQT Corporation Form 10-K for FY2025primary

historical · as of 2025-12-31written 2026-08-24

ממה היא מרוויחה

היא מוכרת גז במחיר השוק ומעבירה אותו בצינורות משלה. מכירת הגז היא הפעילות הגדולה אבל הדלה ברווחיות: ברבעון יוני היא היוותה 77.5% מההכנסות והניבה 6.6 סנט רווח תפעולי מכל דולר. הצינורות היוו 22.5% מההכנסות ו-73.9% מהרווח התפעולי, כי בבעלות עליהם העלות הופכת לאגרה.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 1 טענה

C03עובדהhigh confidence

For Q2 2026, EQT's three reportable segments were Upstream (77.5% of segment revenue, 26.1% of segment operating income, 6.6% operating margin), Gathering (15.9% of segment revenue, 51.7% of segment operating income, 63.5% operating margin) and Transmission (6.6% of segment revenue, 22.2% of segment operating income, 65.9% operating margin) - the combined Gathering and Transmission segments are 22.5% of segment revenue but 73.9% of segment operating income. The segment revenue sum ($2,146M) exceeds consolidated revenue ($1,810M) by $336M, which the 10-Q's own segment note attributes to intersegment eliminations; the research pack's automated segments tool otherwise reports segments.status as 'ok'.

sourceEQT Corporation Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026primary Portfolio-management research pack (vendor_fundamentals…secondary

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-08-24

פירוט מקורות ההכנסה

מקור	משקל במכירות (שנת הכספים 2025)	איך
מכירות גז טבעי	81.2%	מכירת גז מאגן אפלצ'יה לחברות שיווק, לחברות חשמל ולתעשייה, בתוך האגן ובאמצעות קיבולת הצנרת שלה לאזורים אחרים.
NGL ונפט	8.2%	נוזלי גז כמו אתאן, פרופאן ובוטאן שמופרדים מהגז, וגם מעט נפט, שנמכרים אחרי עיבוד.
צנרת ואחר	7.2%	דמי שימוש ששולחים אחרים משלמים על הצינורות שלה לאיסוף והולכה, ברובם דמי הזמנת קיבולת קבועים.
רווחים מנגזרים	3.4%	תוצאות הגידורים על מכירות גז עתידיות; הן משתנות עם המחירים והיוו 27% מההכנסות בשנת הכספים 2023.

ההנהלה

טובי רייס עומד בראש EQT מאז 2019, וג'רמי נופ אחראי על הכספים מאז 2023. בעלי העניין מחזיקים יחד פחות מ-1% מהמניות, רובן בידי רייס, והוא מכר חלק מהחזקותיו בקיץ. רייס מקבל שכר סמלי; הבונוס שלו נקבע לפי תזרים המזומנים למניה, שמירה על עלויות והיקף ההפקה, והמניות לטווח ארוך לפי ביצועי המניה לעומת המתחרות. שום רכיב בשכר אינו קשור לתשואה על ההון המושקע.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 4 טענות

C31עובדהhigh confidence

Toby Z. Rice, formerly chief executive of Rice Energy, has been president and chief executive since July 10, 2019 and a director since July 2019; Jeremy T. Knop has been chief financial officer since July 2023, after running corporate development and mergers from January 2021.

sourceEQT Corporation proxy statement (DEF 14A), filed February…primary EQT Corporation Form 10-K for FY2025primary

current state · 2026-02-26written 2026-10-04

C27עובדהhigh confidence

As of February 5, 2026, the 17 directors and executive officers as a group held 4,510,816 shares plus 1,000,000 exercisable options, under 1% of the company; Toby Rice held 2,454,427 shares plus the 1,000,000 options, the largest insider holding. Vanguard (12.0%), BlackRock (6.5%) and State Street (5.4%) were the only holders above 5%. One class of stock.

sourceEQT Corporation proxy statement (DEF 14A), filed February…primary

against this

Rice has since sold about 274,000 shares in open-market sales between June and August 2026 (C17), so his holding is smaller than the proxy shows.

current state · 2026-02-05written 2026-10-04

C28עובדהhigh confidence

Toby Rice takes a $1 salary. The 2025 annual bonus pool was funded 30% on free cash flow per share, 20% capital expenditures, 20% cash operating costs per Mcfe, 20% environmental, health and safety intensity and 10% production, and paid at 1.69 times target ($2,535,000 to Rice). Long-term awards are 60% PSUs on absolute and relative three-year total shareholder return and 40% time-vested RSUs (Rice's 2025 award $10.5M); the 2023 PSUs paid 1.73 times. The same measures carry into 2026.

sourceEQT Corporation proxy statement (DEF 14A), filed February…primary

against this

The bonus excludes acquisitions above $100M and neutralises unplanned strategic curtailments, and the committee adjusted capital spending for the accelerated MVP Boost turbine purchase, so the cost measures are not read as reported.

current state · 2026-02-26written 2026-10-04

C17עובדהmedium confidence

President and CEO Toby Z. Rice sold EQT shares in four open-market transactions between June 5, 2026 and August 14, 2026, totaling approximately 274,042 shares (86,472 shares at $54.17 and 10,511 shares at $55.17 on 2026-06-05; 1,731 shares at $53.46 on 2026-06-08; 175,328 shares at $55.03 on 2026-08-14), leaving him with approximately 2,157,865 shares. No open-market insider purchases were disclosed in the same window; the only other insider transactions were routine tax-withholding and equity-award activity.

sourcePortfolio-management research pack (market tier: price,…secondary

against this

The multiple tranches at slightly different prices on the same or nearby days is a pattern consistent with a pre-scheduled Rule 10b5-1 trading plan rather than a single discretionary decision, though the Form 4 data in the research pack does not itself confirm plan status; the roughly 274,000 shares sold is about 11% of Rice's post-sale holding, a real but not dominant fraction of his stake.

current state · 2026-08-14written 2026-08-24

02

היתרון התחרותי, ומי מאיים עליו

למה הלקוחות נשארים

בעלות על הצינורות פירושה שהאגרה נשארת בבית, ולכן EQT מעבירה גז ללקוח בזול יותר מיצרנית ששוכרת את הדרך. זה ניכר בשיעורי הרווח: מבין ארבע החברות בקבוצת ההשוואה שלה, היא משאירה לעצמה את החלק הגדול ביותר מכל דולר מכירות אחרי עלות ההפקה, 68.4 סנט, לעומת אמצע טווח של 47.9.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 2 טענות

C03עובדהhigh confidence

For Q2 2026, EQT's three reportable segments were Upstream (77.5% of segment revenue, 26.1% of segment operating income, 6.6% operating margin), Gathering (15.9% of segment revenue, 51.7% of segment operating income, 63.5% operating margin) and Transmission (6.6% of segment revenue, 22.2% of segment operating income, 65.9% operating margin) - the combined Gathering and Transmission segments are 22.5% of segment revenue but 73.9% of segment operating income. The segment revenue sum ($2,146M) exceeds consolidated revenue ($1,810M) by $336M, which the 10-Q's own segment note attributes to intersegment eliminations; the research pack's automated segments tool otherwise reports segments.status as 'ok'.

sourceEQT Corporation Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026primary Portfolio-management research pack (vendor_fundamentals…secondary

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-08-24

C21עובדהhigh confidence

On the filed-competitor cohort (RRC, AR, EXE) at the 25 September 2026 close: EQT's EV/EBITDA, the frame metric, is 6.2x against a two-peer median of 5.35x, between Expand Energy (3.6x) and Range (7.1x), rank 2 of 3; EV/EBIT is 9.3x against 7.85x (rank 3 of 3, dearest; Expand 6.6x, Range 9.1x); EV/Sales is 4.0x against a three-peer median of 2.7x (rank 4 of 4, priciest); P/E is 11.2x against 10.0x (rank 4 of 4); P/S is 3.4x against 1.9x (rank 4 of 4); P/FCF is 8.4x against 7.7x (rank 4 of 4); P/B is 1.3x, level with the 1.3x median (rank 2 of 4); gross margin is 68.4% against 47.9% and operating margin 43.2% against 29.75% (richest on both). Antero is still withheld from EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT and operating margin, its vendor operating margin (21.0%) sitting 3.7 points below its filed one (24.7%). EQT's own TTM revenue growth (16.0%) and ROE (11.7%) are both the lowest of the four-name cohort.

sourceEQT Corporation Form 10-K for FY2025primary Portfolio-management research pack, refreshed 2026-09-26…secondary

2026-09-26editedRe-struck on the pack refreshed 2026-09-26 at the 25 September close. The original said EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT and operating margin could not be compared because Antero and Expand Energy were both withheld. Expand's withholding was a defect in this repo's filed-series reader, fixed 2026-09-26: it had put Expand's filed operating margin at 29.8%, where the corrected filed figure is 26.9%, within a point of the vendor's 26.0%. With Expand priced, the frame metric reads for the first time: EQT sits between its two priced rivals on EV/EBITDA, not at the top, and is the dearest on EV/EBIT.

current state · 2026-09-25written 2026-08-24

האיום

גז משדות אחרים בארה״ב מתחרה על אותו ביקוש של יצוא וייצור חשמל, והביקוש ליצוא ירד מכ-18.4 ל-17.8 מיליארד רגל מעוקבת ביום בין הרבעון הראשון לשני של 2026.

בנוסף, מרכזי נתונים בונים לעצמם מקורות חשמל באתר. OpenAI ו-Anthropic לבדן חכרו יותר מ-10 ג'יגה-וואט כאלה, ובכך עוקפות את הסכמי אספקת הגז ארוכי הטווח שיצרנית כמו EQT חותמת עם תחנות כוח.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 2 טענות

C22עובדהhigh confidence

Independent EIA and American Gas Association data (reused from this repo's Range Resources and Expand Energy theses, describing the same national LNG demand environment) show US LNG feedgas at roughly 17-18 Bcf/day in 2026, up double digits year over year, with the EIA projecting continued export growth in 2027; a separate industry-data source (Industrial Info Resources) reported feedgas volumes dipped from about 18.4 Bcf/day in Q1 2026 to about 17.8 Bcf/day in Q2 2026, a real quarter-over-quarter counter-signal within the broader growth trend.

sourceAmerican Gas Association - Natural Gas Market Indicators,…secondary EIA - U.S. natural gas exports to grow nearly 30% by 2027 as…secondary

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-08-24

C23עובדהmedium confidence

Behind-the-meter, off-grid data-center and power-generator generation is scaling nationally: nearly every hyperscaler is now pursuing behind-the-meter power projects, and OpenAI and Anthropic alone have signed leases for more than 10 GW of behind-the-meter power (data reused from this repo's power-sector theses, describing the same national trend relevant to power-generation gas demand).

sourceCleanview - Bypassing the Grid: How Data Center Developers…secondary

against this

Much of the reported behind-the-meter build-out still runs on natural gas, so it competes with the long-term supply-agreement model EQT's CPV deal represents more than it displaces demand for gas itself - but a generator large enough to self-supply may not need EQT's transport and marketing relationship at all.

current state · 2026-08-24written 2026-08-24

המתחרות: EXE, RRC, AR, ועוד אחת: פרטית, פיתוח פנימי של לקוח או נסחרת בחו״ל.

פירוט המתחרים

סימול	מתחרה	שלב	בסיס להשוואה
EXE	גידול באספקת גז טבעי מאגנים אחרים (גז נלווה מאגן Permian ויצרניות באגן Haynesville, ובהן Expand Energy, שמכוסה גם בריפו הזה), שמתחרה על אותו ביקוש של LNG וייצור חשמלבסיס להשוואה: כן	כבר נמכר	כן
פיתוח פנימי	מרכזי נתונים ויצרניות חשמל שבונים ייצור גז משלהם מאחורי המונה, במקום לקנות חשמל מהרשת או גז במסגרת הסכם ארוך טווחבסיס להשוואה: פיתוח עצמי	כבר נמכר	פיתוח פנימי
RRC	Range Resourcesבסיס להשוואה: כן	כבר נמכר	כן
AR	Antero Resourcesבסיס להשוואה: אין נתון שמיש	כבר נמכר	אין נתון שמיש

03

פוטנציאל הצמיחה

גודל ההזדמנות

הצמיחה נמצאת ביצוא ובחשמל למרכזי נתונים. ב-2026 ארה״ב הזינה כ-17 עד 18 מיליארד רגל מעוקבת ביום למתקני היצוא שלה, עלייה דו-ספרתית. EQT גם התחייבה למכור עד 1.2 מיליארד רגל מעוקבת ביום דרך Mountain Valley החל מ-2027, אחרי שצינור של חברה אחרת יושלם. אף גוף לא מפרסם כמה מהצמיחה בארה״ב EQT תזכה בה.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 2 טענות

C22עובדהhigh confidence

Independent EIA and American Gas Association data (reused from this repo's Range Resources and Expand Energy theses, describing the same national LNG demand environment) show US LNG feedgas at roughly 17-18 Bcf/day in 2026, up double digits year over year, with the EIA projecting continued export growth in 2027; a separate industry-data source (Industrial Info Resources) reported feedgas volumes dipped from about 18.4 Bcf/day in Q1 2026 to about 17.8 Bcf/day in Q2 2026, a real quarter-over-quarter counter-signal within the broader growth trend.

sourceAmerican Gas Association - Natural Gas Market Indicators,…secondary EIA - U.S. natural gas exports to grow nearly 30% by 2027 as…secondary

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-08-24

C09עובדהhigh confidence

EQT is party to two firm sales agreements committing to deliver and sell up to an aggregate 1.2 Bcf/day of gas using its MVP Mainline capacity, for up to ten years beginning in 2027. These agreements are subject to conditions - related to the in-service date of the Transco Southeast Supply Enhancement project - that had not yet been satisfied as of the 10-K's filing date, so their volumes are excluded from EQT's disclosed schedule of total gross commitments.

sourceEQT Corporation Form 10-K for FY2025primary

historical · as disclosed in the FY2025 10-K, filed 2026-02-18written 2026-08-24

מי כבר התחייב

תחנת כוח חדשה בהספק 2 ג'יגה-וואט במערב וירג'יניה חתמה על רכישת 325,000 דקתרם גז ביום למשך 10 שנים. ל-EQT גם הסכמים ל-20 שנה לאספקת 4.5 מיליון טונות גז נוזלי בשנה, אבל 1.0 מיליון מהטונות האלה, והסכם עיבוד של 2.0 מיליון טונות, תלויים במתקני יצוא שעוד לא אושרו.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 2 טענות

C07עובדהhigh confidence

As of December 31, 2025, EQT had entered three 20-year LNG offtake agreements for an aggregate 4.5 MTPA (3.0 MTPA expected to commence as early as 2030, 1.5 MTPA in 2031) plus a 20-year LNG tolling agreement for up to 2.0 MTPA expected to commence no earlier than 2030. Of the capacity that may commence in 2030, 1.0 MTPA of the offtake agreements and the entire 2.0 MTPA tolling commitment relate to projects that have not yet reached final investment decision. With the Q2 2026 print, EQT signed an additional 5-year LNG offtake SPA with an undisclosed 'large Asian integrated energy company' for 0.5 MTPA sourced from Gulf Coast facilities beginning 2028, expected to add approximately $45 million to 2028 free cash flow at recent strip pricing. No individual LNG counterparty is named in any of the four agreements.

sourceEQT Corporation Form 10-K for FY2025primary EQT Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results (8-K Ex-99.1)primary

against this

1.0 MTPA of the 4.5 MTPA offtake total and all 2.0 MTPA of the tolling commitment are explicitly pre-final-investment-decision, meaning roughly 43% of the aggregate 7.0 MTPA LNG-linked volume disclosed is conditional on projects that may not proceed, and none of the four counterparties is named, which limits independent verification of counterparty credit quality or deal terms.

2026-10-23editedEQT's own notice of 7 October puts the third-quarter results on 27 October; the 20 October refresh date came from a vendor estimate
2026-10-28editedthird-quarter 10-Q and release show no new LNG decision; refresh date rolled to the fourth-quarter results

current state · 2026-07-21written 2026-08-24

C08עובדהhigh confidence

With the Q2 2026 print, EQT announced a 10-year definitive agreement with Competitive Power Ventures (CPV) to supply 325,000 Dth/day of natural gas to the CPV Shay Energy Center in Doddridge County, West Virginia, pricing linked to PJM power prices. CEO Toby Rice described the deal as supporting 'a new 2-gigawatt power generation facility' and stated it provides 'a substantial premium over in-basin pricing,' framing it as evidence that 'the next wave of natural gas demand growth is emerging in our backyard.'

sourceEQT Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results (8-K Ex-99.1)primary

historical · 2026-07-21written 2026-08-24

04

התוצאות

המספרים

היא צומחת?בקצב יציב

המכירות צמחו ב-19% ב-12 החודשים שהסתיימו בספטמבר 2026, לעומת 64% בשנה שהסתיימה בדצמבר 2025.

היא רווחית?מאוד

שיעור הרווח התפעולי עומד על 42%, לעומת 33% בשנה שהסתיימה בדצמבר 2023.

הצמיחה משתלמת?לא ברור

ההוצאות התפעוליות אוכלות 42 סנט מכל דולר מכירות, לעומת 81 סנט בשנה שהסתיימה בדצמבר 2021.

התשואה על ההון גבוהה?נמוכה

כל דולר שמושקע בעסק מניב 9.8% בשנה אחרי מס, בערך כמו (13%) בשנה שהסתיימה בדצמבר 2022.

היא מייצרת מזומנים?הרבה

41% מהמכירות הפכו לתזרים מזומנים חופשי: 3.80 מיליארד דולר ב-12 החודשים האחרונים, אחרי שהחברה הוציאה 27% מהמכירות על מבנים וציוד.

המאזן איתן?חוב נמוך

החברה חייבת 5.47 מיליארד דולר מעבר למזומן שבידיה, בערך 0.9 שנות תזרים מפעילות שוטפת.

בעלי המניות מדוללים?כן

מספר המניות עלה ב-95% בתוך 4.8 שנים, והתגמול במניות מסתכם ב-0.9% מהמכירות.

כל המספרים

נתונים מדווחים מתוך דוחות 10-K ו-10-Q של החברה, נקראו ב-28 באוקטובר 2026. שנת הכספים מסתיימת בדצמבר.

	דצמבר 2021	דצמבר 2022	דצמבר 2023	דצמבר 2024	דצמבר 2025	12 חודשים עד ספטמבר 2026
גודל וצמיחה
מכירות	$3.06B	$7.50B	$6.91B	$5.27B	$8.64B	$9.35B
צמיחת המכירות	+0.2%	+145%	−7.9%	−24%	+64%	+19%
רווח
שיעור הרווח הגולמי	37%	72%	69%	64%	82%	83%
שיעור הרווח התפעולי	−44%	36%	33%	13%	38%	42%
שיעור הרווח הנקי	−37%	24%	25%	4.4%	24%	28%
עלות הצמיחה, לכל דולר מכירות
הוצאות מכירה, הנהלה וכלליות	6.4%	3.4%	3.4%	6.4%	4.4%	4.6%
תגמול מבוסס מניות	0.9%	0.6%	0.7%	3.0%	0.7%	0.9%
השקעות הוניות	34%	19%	29%	43%	26%	27%
מזומנים
תזרים מפעילות שוטפת	$1.66B	$3.47B	$3.18B	$2.83B	$5.13B	$6.31B
תזרים מזומנים חופשי	$607M	$2.07B	$1.16B	$573M	$2.84B	$3.80B
מאזן
מזומנים והשקעות לזמן קצר	$114M	$1.46B	$81.0M	$202M	$111M	$78.7M
חוב	$5.59B	$5.68B	$5.80B	$9.32B	$7.80B	$5.55B
מזומן נטו	−$5.48B	−$4.22B	−$5.71B	−$9.12B	−$7.69B	−$5.47B
תשואות ומניות
תשואה על ההון המושקע	-	13%	10%	2.5%	8.3%	9.8%
מספר המניות (בדילול מלא)	323M	406M	413M	515M	616M	629M

עלות הצמיחה

אצל יצרנית גז, המכירות נעות בעיקר עם מחיר הגז, ולכן ההוצאות לכל דולר מכירות עולות ויורדות עם המחיר ולא עם הצמיחה. המדד המתאים יותר הוא עלות ליחידת גז שהופקה, והיא נשארה בקצה הנמוך של טווח התחזית של החברה.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 3 טענות

C30עובדהhigh confidence

Per sales dollar from FY2021 to FY2025, selling, general and administrative ran 6.4, 3.4, 3.4, 6.4 and 4.4 cents, capital spending 34.4, 18.7, 29.2, 42.7 and 26.5 cents, and share pay 0.9, 0.6, 0.7, 3.0 and 0.7 cents; EQT tags no research and development. The card's cost of revenue is transportation and processing only, not production, depreciation or other operating costs.

sourceEQT XBRL company facts, FY2020 to the four quarters to June…primary EQT Corporation Form 10-K for FY2025primary

against this

Revenue in these years moved with gas prices and hedge results (C26), so a falling cost share can mean a higher price rather than cheaper growth; Q2 2026 per-unit operating costs of $1.03 per Mcfe (C11) are the volume-based measure.

historical · FY2021 to FY2025written 2026-10-04

C26עובדהhigh confidence

FY2025 operating revenues of $8,644M split into natural gas sales $7,019M (81.2%), NGLs $620M (7.2%), oil $88M (1.0%), pipeline and other revenue $627M (7.2%, the gathering and transmission fees left after $1,254M of intersegment eliminations) and gains on derivatives $291M (3.4%). In FY2023 derivative gains were $1,839M of $6,909M.

sourceEQT Corporation Form 10-K for FY2025primary

historical · FY2025 (FY2023 for the derivative comparison)written 2026-10-04

C11עובדהhigh confidence

Q2 2026 results beat guidance across every guided metric: sales volume of 634 Bcfe (above the high end of guidance); capital expenditures of $666 million (9% below the low end); realized-pricing differential of $(0.67) (favorable to guidance); total per-unit operating costs of $1.03/Mcfe (low end of guidance); net cash from operating activities of $1,048 million. EQT drilled the longest lateral in shale-development history (more than 29,000 feet) while staying 100% in zone, and set a new basin-wide 24-hour drilling record and a new company 48-hour record. EQT raised full-year 2026 total sales volume guidance to 2,375-2,450 Bcfe (from an original 2,275-2,375 Bcfe issued with the FY2025 results) and reduced full-year maintenance capex guidance by $25 million.

sourceEQT Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results (8-K Ex-99.1)primary EQT Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results and…primary

2026-10-23editedEQT's own notice of 7 October puts the third-quarter results on 27 October; the 20 October refresh date came from a vendor estimate
2026-10-28editedrefresh date rolled: the third-quarter release of 27 October beat on costs and capital and is read in the 27 October review

current state · 2026-07-21written 2026-08-24

הדוח האחרון (21 ביולי)

הרבעון שהסתיים ביוני 2026, לפי הדוחות.

-29%

צמיחת המכירות

לעומת הרבעון המקביל אשתקד

-46.4%

צמיחה לעומת הרבעון הקודם

לעומת 41.5% ברבעון שלפני כן

22¢

רווח תפעולי

לכל דולר מכירות

המכירות נעות עם מחיר הגז, ש-EQT לא קובעת. מה שכן בשליטתה עקף את התחזית ברבעון יוני 2026: היא מכרה יותר גז מהקצה העליון של הטווח, הוציאה 9% פחות מהקצה התחתון של תקציב ההשקעות, והעלויות שלה היו בקצה הנמוך של הטווח. לאחר מכן העלתה את תחזית ההפקה לשנה.

הרווח המתואם של 0.39 דולר למניה היה גבוה בלא יותר מ-0.05 דולר מהרווח המדווח, והחוב המשיך לרדת: חוב נטו של 5.5 מיליארד דולר, לעומת 7.7 מיליארד בסוף 2025.

מה זה אומר על התזההדוח חיזק את מה שבשליטת EQT: היא עקפה את התחזית בהפקה, בהוצאות ובעלויות, המשיכה להקטין חוב, והרווח שלה נקי מסעיפים חריגים. הוא לא הכריע את מה שהמחיר הגבוה דורש, כלומר הפיכת חוזי הצנרת לחתומים, ולכן ההערכה נשארת ניטרלית.

הרבעון בפירוט

-23.4%Q3 25

21.9%Q4 25

41.5%Q1 26

-46.4%Q2 26

צמיחת המכירות לעומת הרבעון הקודם, לפי הדוחות.

רווח למניה $0.39 לעומת $0.41 צפוי; $0.34 לפי הדוחות, והפער הוא הסעיפים שהחברה מנטרלת.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 3 טענות

C11עובדהhigh confidence

Q2 2026 results beat guidance across every guided metric: sales volume of 634 Bcfe (above the high end of guidance); capital expenditures of $666 million (9% below the low end); realized-pricing differential of $(0.67) (favorable to guidance); total per-unit operating costs of $1.03/Mcfe (low end of guidance); net cash from operating activities of $1,048 million. EQT drilled the longest lateral in shale-development history (more than 29,000 feet) while staying 100% in zone, and set a new basin-wide 24-hour drilling record and a new company 48-hour record. EQT raised full-year 2026 total sales volume guidance to 2,375-2,450 Bcfe (from an original 2,275-2,375 Bcfe issued with the FY2025 results) and reduced full-year maintenance capex guidance by $25 million.

sourceEQT Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results (8-K Ex-99.1)primary EQT Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results and…primary

2026-10-23editedEQT's own notice of 7 October puts the third-quarter results on 27 October; the 20 October refresh date came from a vendor estimate
2026-10-28editedrefresh date rolled: the third-quarter release of 27 October beat on costs and capital and is read in the 27 October review

current state · 2026-07-21written 2026-08-24

C12עובדהhigh confidence

GAAP-to-adjusted earnings distortion is small for EQT relative to this repo's merchant-generator theses: Q2 2026 GAAP diluted EPS was $0.34 versus Adjusted EPS of $0.39 (a $0.05 gap); for the six months ended June 30, 2026, GAAP diluted EPS was $2.70 versus Adjusted EPS of $2.72 (a $0.02 gap). For full-year 2025, GAAP diluted EPS was $3.31 versus Adjusted EPS of $3.05.

sourceEQT Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results (8-K Ex-99.1)primary EQT Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results and…primary

historical · H1 2026 / FY2025written 2026-08-24

C13עובדהhigh confidence

EQT's net debt fell from $9.1 billion at 2024-12-31 to $7.7 billion at 2025-12-31 to $5.5 billion at 2026-06-30 ($9,122M, $7,690M and $5,543M in the releases' reconciliations) - down 28% in the two quarters to 30 June 2026 and 39% since the end of 2024 (total debt $5.7 billion at Q2 2026, versus $7.8 billion at YE2025). At Q2 2026, EQT had $52 million drawn on its $3.5 billion revolving credit facility and total liquidity of approximately $3.6 billion (excluding Eureka Midstream's separate facility); subsequent to quarter-end, EQT repaid $115 million of 2026 debentures. At 30 September 2026 the 10-Q shows total debt of $5,590.5M and cash of $78.7M, about $5.5B net, little changed from June (C35).

sourceEQT Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results (8-K Ex-99.1)primary EQT Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results and…primary Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026primary

2026-09-26editedStated the size of the fall: 28% in two quarters and 39% in eighteen months, from the net-debt reconciliations in the Q2 2026 and FY2025 releases. The searched note had called it roughly 40% over two quarters, which the thesis's header repeated as 'nearly halved'.
2026-10-28editedthird-quarter 10-Q: net debt about $5.5B, flat on the June figure, so the fall has levelled before the Range deal

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-08-24

לאן הלך הכסף

היא פרעה חוב, ופרעה עוד 115 מיליון דולר אחרי הרבעון. היא גם רכשה שני מסופי פרופאן בניו אינגלנד ב-77 מיליון דולר, שלדבריה יניבו כ-15 מיליון דולר בשנה במזומן.

בעלי עניין ברבעון השני של 2026: 40 רכישות ו-9 מכירות, לפי דיווחי Form 4 שלהם.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 2 טענות

C13עובדהhigh confidence

EQT's net debt fell from $9.1 billion at 2024-12-31 to $7.7 billion at 2025-12-31 to $5.5 billion at 2026-06-30 ($9,122M, $7,690M and $5,543M in the releases' reconciliations) - down 28% in the two quarters to 30 June 2026 and 39% since the end of 2024 (total debt $5.7 billion at Q2 2026, versus $7.8 billion at YE2025). At Q2 2026, EQT had $52 million drawn on its $3.5 billion revolving credit facility and total liquidity of approximately $3.6 billion (excluding Eureka Midstream's separate facility); subsequent to quarter-end, EQT repaid $115 million of 2026 debentures. At 30 September 2026 the 10-Q shows total debt of $5,590.5M and cash of $78.7M, about $5.5B net, little changed from June (C35).

sourceEQT Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results (8-K Ex-99.1)primary EQT Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results and…primary Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026primary

2026-09-26editedStated the size of the fall: 28% in two quarters and 39% in eighteen months, from the net-debt reconciliations in the Q2 2026 and FY2025 releases. The searched note had called it roughly 40% over two quarters, which the thesis's header repeated as 'nearly halved'.
2026-10-28editedthird-quarter 10-Q: net debt about $5.5B, flat on the June figure, so the fall has levelled before the Range deal

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-08-24

C16טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence

On July 21, 2026, EQT closed its acquisition of Blackline Midstream, consisting of two propane storage and distribution terminals in New England (the largest such facilities in the region), for $77 million. EQT states the Blackline assets are expected to generate average annual free cash flow of approximately $15 million over the next five years, a roughly 20% free cash flow yield on the purchase price, and describes the deal as advancing its 'vertical integration strategy.'

sourceEQT Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results (8-K Ex-99.1)primary

against this

The projected ~20% free cash flow yield is management's own forward-looking estimate over a five-year window, not an audited or independently verified figure, and the deal closed the same day it was announced in the earnings release, leaving no independent track record yet on the projection.

forwardwritten 2026-08-24

05

המחיר, ואיפה אנחנו חלוקים על השוק

בקצרה. מלא. EQT יקרה מרוב המתחרות בזמן שהיא צומחת לאט מכולן. התוספת הזאת מוצדקת רק אם חוזי הצנרת שעדיין מותנים יהפכו לחתומים והחוב ימשיך לרדת.

מחיר המניה

$50.81

שער סגירה, 25 בספטמבר

מכפיל ה-EBITDA (שווי החברה ביחס לרווח התזרימי)

6.2

אמצע הטווח של המתחרות: 5.3 · המכפיל המקובל בשש השנים האחרונות: 9.2

תוצאות הרבעון שהסתיים בספטמבר והדוח הרבעוני שפורסם יום אחריהן לא ענו על הבדיקה המרכזית. החוב נטו נשאר סביב 5.5 מיליארד דולר, ותחילת הפעילות של Southgate עדיין מתוארכת לאמצע 2028, בלי סימן לסיום מוקדם יותר. EQT גם הסכימה לרכוש את Range Resources תמורת מניות, כך שבעלי המניות של Range יחזיקו בכ-27% מהחברה המאוחדת.

העסקה לא עונה על השאלות לגבי Southgate, עסקאות הייצוא והחוב, והן ממתינות לתוצאות. היא מוסיפה הצבעה, בדיקת הגבלים עסקיים והבטחה לחיסכון של 325 מיליון דולר בשנה שעדיין אין מה שתומך בה.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 7 טענות

C24עובדהhigh confidence

As of the research pack's 25 September 2026 close, EQT traded at $50.81, about 25.5% below its 252-day high of $68.24, 14.1% up the 52-week range; the stock sits below its 50-day moving average by 4.1% and below its 200-day by 8.7%, with the 50-day average itself still below the 200-day, a 14-day RSI of 38.7 and the MACD below its signal line. 20-day average volatility (high-to-low range) was 2.65%, in the Stable bucket. Sell-side consensus is 30 buy, 15 hold, 0 sell (Buy).

sourcePortfolio-management research pack, refreshed 2026-09-26…secondary

2026-09-26editedRe-struck at the 25 September 2026 close from the refreshed pack: $50.81 against $53.72, 25.5% below the 252-day high against 21.3%, now below both moving averages, RSI 38.7 against 55.0. The pack no longer reports a cross inside its window; the 50-day average is still below the 200-day. Consensus unchanged.

current state · 2026-09-25written 2026-08-24

C25עובדהmedium confidence

Of 12 news items the refreshed research pack measured, none produced a volume-confirmed price reaction (0 up / 0 down / 12 flat by the pack's classification). No single news item in the window was itself the primary driver of EQT's 25.5% drawdown from its 252-day high: EQT's daily returns correlate 0.87 over 63 sessions and 0.86 over 252 with the natural-gas producers it is grouped with (Range, Antero, Expand Energy), which is consistent with a sector move rather than company news.

sourcePortfolio-management research pack, refreshed 2026-09-26…secondary

2026-09-26editedRe-struck on the refreshed pack's news window: 12 items measured, all flat, and the drawdown is now 25.5%. The claim that the fall tracks the sector now rests on the pack's measured co-movement with the other gas producers rather than on assertion, and the old 'largest item' detail is dropped.

current state · 2026-09-25written 2026-08-24

C05עובדהmedium confidence

MVP Southgate (Series B of the MVP Joint Venture) extends MVP Mainline into North Carolina; EQT is committed to an additional 0.55 Bcf/day of firm capacity on Southgate once placed into service. The FY2025 10-K estimated Southgate's total cost at $370-430 million and targeted an in-service date of mid-2028, pending remaining regulatory approvals. With the Q2 2026 print, EQT reported it had secured all key regulatory approvals for Southgate and elected to accelerate $85 million of capital contributions to complete construction by year-end 2026. The third-quarter 10-Q filed 28 October 2026 still gives 'mid-2028' as the in-service date and mentions no year-end 2026 acceleration (C35).

sourceEQT Corporation Form 10-K for FY2025primary EQT Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results (8-K Ex-99.1)primary Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026primary

against this

The 10-K's own risk factors note that MVP Mainline itself was repeatedly delayed by construction and regulatory setbacks over roughly a decade, and that those same risks 'may be realized in the future' for Southgate and Boost - so a mid-2028-to-year-end-2026 acceleration, while a real regulatory milestone, is not yet a completed project.

2026-10-23editedEQT's own notice of 7 October puts the third-quarter results on 27 October; the 20 October refresh date came from a vendor estimate
2026-10-28editedthe 10-Q the day after the print restates mid-2028 in service and does not repeat the acceleration; the year-end 2026 finish rests on the second-quarter statement alone

current state · 2026-07-21written 2026-08-24

C07עובדהhigh confidence

As of December 31, 2025, EQT had entered three 20-year LNG offtake agreements for an aggregate 4.5 MTPA (3.0 MTPA expected to commence as early as 2030, 1.5 MTPA in 2031) plus a 20-year LNG tolling agreement for up to 2.0 MTPA expected to commence no earlier than 2030. Of the capacity that may commence in 2030, 1.0 MTPA of the offtake agreements and the entire 2.0 MTPA tolling commitment relate to projects that have not yet reached final investment decision. With the Q2 2026 print, EQT signed an additional 5-year LNG offtake SPA with an undisclosed 'large Asian integrated energy company' for 0.5 MTPA sourced from Gulf Coast facilities beginning 2028, expected to add approximately $45 million to 2028 free cash flow at recent strip pricing. No individual LNG counterparty is named in any of the four agreements.

sourceEQT Corporation Form 10-K for FY2025primary EQT Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results (8-K Ex-99.1)primary

against this

1.0 MTPA of the 4.5 MTPA offtake total and all 2.0 MTPA of the tolling commitment are explicitly pre-final-investment-decision, meaning roughly 43% of the aggregate 7.0 MTPA LNG-linked volume disclosed is conditional on projects that may not proceed, and none of the four counterparties is named, which limits independent verification of counterparty credit quality or deal terms.

2026-10-23editedEQT's own notice of 7 October puts the third-quarter results on 27 October; the 20 October refresh date came from a vendor estimate
2026-10-28editedthird-quarter 10-Q and release show no new LNG decision; refresh date rolled to the fourth-quarter results

current state · 2026-07-21written 2026-08-24

C33עובדהhigh confidence

On 25 October 2026 Range signed a merger agreement under which EQT will acquire it for stock only: each Range share becomes 0.987 EQT shares, Range holders will own about 27% of the combined company and EQT holders 73%. Completion needs both companies' shareholder votes, antitrust clearance and an effective registration statement; the end date is 25 October 2027, extendable to 25 April 2028; the break fees are $423M payable by Range and $1,148M payable by EQT. Range's chief executive Dennis Degner and one other Range-chosen director join an EQT board of 12.

sourceRange Resources Corporation Form 8-K of 2026-10-26 (Item…primary

current state · 2026-10-26written 2026-10-26

C34טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence

EQT and Range state that the combination will bring $325M of annual base cost savings within two years (more than $600M over the longer term), lower EQT's break-even gas price for positive free cash flow to under $2 per MMBtu, give credit metrics of BBB quality at closing, and produce about $20B of free cash flow over five years at recent futures prices.

sourceRange Resources Corporation Form 8-K of 2026-10-26 (Item…primary

against this

These are the two companies' own projections in an announcement; no filing yet shows the analysis behind the savings or the free-cash-flow figure, and the registration statement will carry the financial advice each board relied on.

forwardwritten 2026-10-26

C35עובדהhigh confidence

EQT's third-quarter 2026 10-Q shows total debt of $5,590.5M principal against $7,855.5M at the end of 2025 and cash of $78.7M, so net debt of about $5.5B; nine-month operating cash flow was $5,186M against capital spending of $1,896M. Third-quarter sales of gas, NGLs and oil were $1,507.8M against $1,677.6M a year earlier and operating income $459.5M against $603.2M. It restates MVP Southgate in service 'by mid-2028' and MVP Boost, pending FERC approval, mid-2028, and says nothing of an accelerated year-end 2026 finish.

sourceForm 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026primary

against this

Net debt is computed here from the filed principal and cash, not taken from the company's own reconciliation, which the 10-Q does not carry.
Sales and operating income fell year on year on lower prices and volumes.

historical · Q3 2026written 2026-10-28

איך לקרוא את המכפיל

כולל החוב, שווי החברה הוא 6.2 פעמים הרווח התזרימי השנתי, בין שתי המתחרות שאפשר לתמחר כך: יקרה מחברת Expand Energy וזולה מ-Range. במכפילי מכירות, רווח ותזרים חופשי היא יקרה מאמצע הטווח של המתחרות, ובכל זאת צמחה לאט מכל ארבע החברות.

היא נראית זולה לעומת המכפיל המקובל שלה, 9.2, אבל אז היא הייתה חברה קטנה יותר: ההכנסות עמדו על 5.27 מיליארד דולר ב-2024, לפני שהמיזוג נכנס לשנה מלאה, לעומת 8.64 מיליארד דולר בשנה שעברה.

מול ההיסטוריה שלה. זולה לפי חלק מהמדדים ויקרה לפי אחרים, מול עבר שבו הייתה חברה קטנה יותר, ולכן הפער לא מלמד הרבה לכאן או לכאן.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 3 טענות

C21עובדהhigh confidence

On the filed-competitor cohort (RRC, AR, EXE) at the 25 September 2026 close: EQT's EV/EBITDA, the frame metric, is 6.2x against a two-peer median of 5.35x, between Expand Energy (3.6x) and Range (7.1x), rank 2 of 3; EV/EBIT is 9.3x against 7.85x (rank 3 of 3, dearest; Expand 6.6x, Range 9.1x); EV/Sales is 4.0x against a three-peer median of 2.7x (rank 4 of 4, priciest); P/E is 11.2x against 10.0x (rank 4 of 4); P/S is 3.4x against 1.9x (rank 4 of 4); P/FCF is 8.4x against 7.7x (rank 4 of 4); P/B is 1.3x, level with the 1.3x median (rank 2 of 4); gross margin is 68.4% against 47.9% and operating margin 43.2% against 29.75% (richest on both). Antero is still withheld from EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT and operating margin, its vendor operating margin (21.0%) sitting 3.7 points below its filed one (24.7%). EQT's own TTM revenue growth (16.0%) and ROE (11.7%) are both the lowest of the four-name cohort.

sourceEQT Corporation Form 10-K for FY2025primary Portfolio-management research pack, refreshed 2026-09-26…secondary

2026-09-26editedRe-struck on the pack refreshed 2026-09-26 at the 25 September close. The original said EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT and operating margin could not be compared because Antero and Expand Energy were both withheld. Expand's withholding was a defect in this repo's filed-series reader, fixed 2026-09-26: it had put Expand's filed operating margin at 29.8%, where the corrected filed figure is 26.9%, within a point of the vendor's 26.0%. With Expand priced, the frame metric reads for the first time: EQT sits between its two priced rivals on EV/EBITDA, not at the top, and is the dearest on EV/EBIT.

current state · 2026-09-25written 2026-08-24

C19עובדהhigh confidence

Per the research pack's market-tier valuation time series at the 25 September 2026 close, EQT's TTM EV/EBITDA is 6.02x against a prior-fiscal-years median of 9.17x (below its own history); TTM P/E is 11.16x against a 7.77x prior median (above its own history); TTM P/B is 1.26x against a 1.06x prior median; TTM FCF yield is 12% against a 9% prior median; ROE is 12% against a 5% prior median; ROIC is 8% against a 4% prior median.

sourceEQT Corporation Form 10-K for FY2025primary Portfolio-management research pack, refreshed 2026-09-26…secondary

against this

See C20: the 'prior-fiscal-years' comparison window spans EQT's 2024 Equitrans merger, so the EV/EBITDA reading compares a post-merger current multiple against a blended pre- and post-merger history rather than a like-for-like base - the apparent discount should not be read at face value without that caveat.

2026-09-26editedRe-struck on the research pack refreshed 2026-09-26 at the 25 September close ($50.81 against $53.72 in the original pack): EV/EBITDA 6.32x to 6.02x, P/E 11.81x to 11.16x, P/B 1.33x to 1.26x, FCF yield 11% to 12%. The prior-year medians, ROE and ROIC are unchanged.

current state · 2026-09-25written 2026-08-24

C20עובדהhigh confidence

EQT's annual revenue was $3.06B (FY2021), $7.50B (FY2022), $6.91B (FY2023), $5.27B (FY2024) and $8.64B (FY2025, +63.9% year over year) - the FY2021-2024 window that anchors the research pack's 'prior-fiscal-years median' comparison spans the 2024 Equitrans Midstream Merger, so it blends a materially smaller, pre-merger EQT (without the Gathering and Transmission segments) into the historical base. FY2025 is the first full year with those segments consolidated for the entire period.

sourceEQT Corporation Form 10-K for FY2025primary EQT Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results and…primary Portfolio-management research pack (market tier: price,…secondary

historical · FY2021-FY2025written 2026-08-24

המכפיל מול המתחרים

המתחרות שהדוח השנתי של החברה עצמה מונה בשמן, וכל אחת מהן אומתה מול הדוח שלה. מדורגות לפי מכפיל ה-EBITDA, מהזולה ליקרה:

סימול	חברה	מכפיל ה-EBITDA (שווי החברה ביחס לרווח התזרימי)
EXE	Expand Energy	3.6×
EQT	EQT	6.2×
RRC	Range Resources	7.1×
AR	Antero Resources הוצאה מהחישוב	ללא תמחור

אמצע הטווח של שתי האחרות הוא 5.3.‏ EQT היא השנייה בזולה מבין שלוש.

נתוני המתחרות מגיעים מספק נתונים, ולכן עדיף להסתכל על טווח הערכים בקבוצה כולה ולא על השוואה בין שתי חברות בלבד.

באמצע הקבוצה במדד הזה, ויקרה מאמצע הטווח לכל דולר של מכירות, רווח או תזרים. התוספת שהיא עולה היא שלה: המשקיעים משלמים על הצינורות.

איפה אנחנו חלוקים על השוק

השוק חושב

יצרנית גז זולת עלויות מאפלצ'יה, שנהנית מאותו סיפור יצוא כמו מתחרותיה, וזולה לעומת ההיסטוריה שלה.

אנחנו חושבים

היתרון בצנרת והקטנת החוב אמיתיים, אבל הזול נובע מהשוואה לחברה קטנה יותר מלפני המיזוג.

הסיקור משווה את מחיר EQT לשנים קודמות שלה בלי לציין שהשנים האלה חוצות מיזוג ששינה מהיסוד את ההכנסות שלה.

נטעה אם עסקאות היצוא והצנרת המותנות יהפכו לחתומות והפער מול המתחרות ייסגר ככל שהתקופה שאחרי המיזוג תתארך.

מה אומרים האנליסטים

המלצות חיוביות

85%

מתוך 26, 1 בספטמבר

לפני ארבעה חודשים

76%

מתוך 25, 1 במאי

הראיות (באנגלית) · 5 טענות

C19עובדהhigh confidence

Per the research pack's market-tier valuation time series at the 25 September 2026 close, EQT's TTM EV/EBITDA is 6.02x against a prior-fiscal-years median of 9.17x (below its own history); TTM P/E is 11.16x against a 7.77x prior median (above its own history); TTM P/B is 1.26x against a 1.06x prior median; TTM FCF yield is 12% against a 9% prior median; ROE is 12% against a 5% prior median; ROIC is 8% against a 4% prior median.

sourceEQT Corporation Form 10-K for FY2025primary Portfolio-management research pack, refreshed 2026-09-26…secondary

against this

See C20: the 'prior-fiscal-years' comparison window spans EQT's 2024 Equitrans merger, so the EV/EBITDA reading compares a post-merger current multiple against a blended pre- and post-merger history rather than a like-for-like base - the apparent discount should not be read at face value without that caveat.

2026-09-26editedRe-struck on the research pack refreshed 2026-09-26 at the 25 September close ($50.81 against $53.72 in the original pack): EV/EBITDA 6.32x to 6.02x, P/E 11.81x to 11.16x, P/B 1.33x to 1.26x, FCF yield 11% to 12%. The prior-year medians, ROE and ROIC are unchanged.

current state · 2026-09-25written 2026-08-24

C20עובדהhigh confidence

EQT's annual revenue was $3.06B (FY2021), $7.50B (FY2022), $6.91B (FY2023), $5.27B (FY2024) and $8.64B (FY2025, +63.9% year over year) - the FY2021-2024 window that anchors the research pack's 'prior-fiscal-years median' comparison spans the 2024 Equitrans Midstream Merger, so it blends a materially smaller, pre-merger EQT (without the Gathering and Transmission segments) into the historical base. FY2025 is the first full year with those segments consolidated for the entire period.

sourceEQT Corporation Form 10-K for FY2025primary EQT Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results and…primary Portfolio-management research pack (market tier: price,…secondary

historical · FY2021-FY2025written 2026-08-24

C07עובדהhigh confidence

As of December 31, 2025, EQT had entered three 20-year LNG offtake agreements for an aggregate 4.5 MTPA (3.0 MTPA expected to commence as early as 2030, 1.5 MTPA in 2031) plus a 20-year LNG tolling agreement for up to 2.0 MTPA expected to commence no earlier than 2030. Of the capacity that may commence in 2030, 1.0 MTPA of the offtake agreements and the entire 2.0 MTPA tolling commitment relate to projects that have not yet reached final investment decision. With the Q2 2026 print, EQT signed an additional 5-year LNG offtake SPA with an undisclosed 'large Asian integrated energy company' for 0.5 MTPA sourced from Gulf Coast facilities beginning 2028, expected to add approximately $45 million to 2028 free cash flow at recent strip pricing. No individual LNG counterparty is named in any of the four agreements.

sourceEQT Corporation Form 10-K for FY2025primary EQT Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results (8-K Ex-99.1)primary

against this

1.0 MTPA of the 4.5 MTPA offtake total and all 2.0 MTPA of the tolling commitment are explicitly pre-final-investment-decision, meaning roughly 43% of the aggregate 7.0 MTPA LNG-linked volume disclosed is conditional on projects that may not proceed, and none of the four counterparties is named, which limits independent verification of counterparty credit quality or deal terms.

2026-10-23editedEQT's own notice of 7 October puts the third-quarter results on 27 October; the 20 October refresh date came from a vendor estimate
2026-10-28editedthird-quarter 10-Q and release show no new LNG decision; refresh date rolled to the fourth-quarter results

current state · 2026-07-21written 2026-08-24

C09עובדהhigh confidence

EQT is party to two firm sales agreements committing to deliver and sell up to an aggregate 1.2 Bcf/day of gas using its MVP Mainline capacity, for up to ten years beginning in 2027. These agreements are subject to conditions - related to the in-service date of the Transco Southeast Supply Enhancement project - that had not yet been satisfied as of the 10-K's filing date, so their volumes are excluded from EQT's disclosed schedule of total gross commitments.

sourceEQT Corporation Form 10-K for FY2025primary

historical · as disclosed in the FY2025 10-K, filed 2026-02-18written 2026-08-24

C21עובדהhigh confidence

On the filed-competitor cohort (RRC, AR, EXE) at the 25 September 2026 close: EQT's EV/EBITDA, the frame metric, is 6.2x against a two-peer median of 5.35x, between Expand Energy (3.6x) and Range (7.1x), rank 2 of 3; EV/EBIT is 9.3x against 7.85x (rank 3 of 3, dearest; Expand 6.6x, Range 9.1x); EV/Sales is 4.0x against a three-peer median of 2.7x (rank 4 of 4, priciest); P/E is 11.2x against 10.0x (rank 4 of 4); P/S is 3.4x against 1.9x (rank 4 of 4); P/FCF is 8.4x against 7.7x (rank 4 of 4); P/B is 1.3x, level with the 1.3x median (rank 2 of 4); gross margin is 68.4% against 47.9% and operating margin 43.2% against 29.75% (richest on both). Antero is still withheld from EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT and operating margin, its vendor operating margin (21.0%) sitting 3.7 points below its filed one (24.7%). EQT's own TTM revenue growth (16.0%) and ROE (11.7%) are both the lowest of the four-name cohort.

sourceEQT Corporation Form 10-K for FY2025primary Portfolio-management research pack, refreshed 2026-09-26…secondary

2026-09-26editedRe-struck on the pack refreshed 2026-09-26 at the 25 September close. The original said EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT and operating margin could not be compared because Antero and Expand Energy were both withheld. Expand's withholding was a defect in this repo's filed-series reader, fixed 2026-09-26: it had put Expand's filed operating margin at 29.8%, where the corrected filed figure is 26.9%, within a point of the vendor's 26.0%. With Expand priced, the frame metric reads for the first time: EQT sits between its two priced rivals on EV/EBITDA, not at the top, and is the dearest on EV/EBIT.

current state · 2026-09-25written 2026-08-24

06

מה יכול להשתבש, ואיך נדע

הסיכונים

חוזים שאולי לא יהפכו לחתומים. חלק מעסקאות היצוא ו-1.2 מיליארד רגל מעוקבת ביום של מכירות דרך הצנרת תלויים בפרויקטים שלא אושרו או שלא נבנו.
צינורות שמתעכבים. Southgate אמור לקום בסוף 2026 והרחבה של Mountain Valley באמצע 2028, וגם Mountain Valley עצמו נבנה באיחור.
דרגה אחת מעל אג״ח זבל. שלוש סוכנויות הדירוג מדרגות את האג״ח שלה בדרגה הנמוכה ביותר של דרגת השקעה.
רכישה גדולה, בתשלום במניות. בעלי המניות של Range יחזיקו ב-27% מהחברה; הצבעה שנכשלת או חסימה מטעם רשות ההגבלים העסקיים יעלו ל-EQT דמי פרידה של 1,148 מיליון דולר.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 7 טענות

C07עובדהhigh confidence

As of December 31, 2025, EQT had entered three 20-year LNG offtake agreements for an aggregate 4.5 MTPA (3.0 MTPA expected to commence as early as 2030, 1.5 MTPA in 2031) plus a 20-year LNG tolling agreement for up to 2.0 MTPA expected to commence no earlier than 2030. Of the capacity that may commence in 2030, 1.0 MTPA of the offtake agreements and the entire 2.0 MTPA tolling commitment relate to projects that have not yet reached final investment decision. With the Q2 2026 print, EQT signed an additional 5-year LNG offtake SPA with an undisclosed 'large Asian integrated energy company' for 0.5 MTPA sourced from Gulf Coast facilities beginning 2028, expected to add approximately $45 million to 2028 free cash flow at recent strip pricing. No individual LNG counterparty is named in any of the four agreements.

sourceEQT Corporation Form 10-K for FY2025primary EQT Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results (8-K Ex-99.1)primary

against this

1.0 MTPA of the 4.5 MTPA offtake total and all 2.0 MTPA of the tolling commitment are explicitly pre-final-investment-decision, meaning roughly 43% of the aggregate 7.0 MTPA LNG-linked volume disclosed is conditional on projects that may not proceed, and none of the four counterparties is named, which limits independent verification of counterparty credit quality or deal terms.

2026-10-23editedEQT's own notice of 7 October puts the third-quarter results on 27 October; the 20 October refresh date came from a vendor estimate
2026-10-28editedthird-quarter 10-Q and release show no new LNG decision; refresh date rolled to the fourth-quarter results

current state · 2026-07-21written 2026-08-24

C09עובדהhigh confidence

EQT is party to two firm sales agreements committing to deliver and sell up to an aggregate 1.2 Bcf/day of gas using its MVP Mainline capacity, for up to ten years beginning in 2027. These agreements are subject to conditions - related to the in-service date of the Transco Southeast Supply Enhancement project - that had not yet been satisfied as of the 10-K's filing date, so their volumes are excluded from EQT's disclosed schedule of total gross commitments.

sourceEQT Corporation Form 10-K for FY2025primary

historical · as disclosed in the FY2025 10-K, filed 2026-02-18written 2026-08-24

C05עובדהmedium confidence

MVP Southgate (Series B of the MVP Joint Venture) extends MVP Mainline into North Carolina; EQT is committed to an additional 0.55 Bcf/day of firm capacity on Southgate once placed into service. The FY2025 10-K estimated Southgate's total cost at $370-430 million and targeted an in-service date of mid-2028, pending remaining regulatory approvals. With the Q2 2026 print, EQT reported it had secured all key regulatory approvals for Southgate and elected to accelerate $85 million of capital contributions to complete construction by year-end 2026. The third-quarter 10-Q filed 28 October 2026 still gives 'mid-2028' as the in-service date and mentions no year-end 2026 acceleration (C35).

sourceEQT Corporation Form 10-K for FY2025primary EQT Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results (8-K Ex-99.1)primary Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026primary

against this

The 10-K's own risk factors note that MVP Mainline itself was repeatedly delayed by construction and regulatory setbacks over roughly a decade, and that those same risks 'may be realized in the future' for Southgate and Boost - so a mid-2028-to-year-end-2026 acceleration, while a real regulatory milestone, is not yet a completed project.

2026-10-23editedEQT's own notice of 7 October puts the third-quarter results on 27 October; the 20 October refresh date came from a vendor estimate
2026-10-28editedthe 10-Q the day after the print restates mid-2028 in service and does not repeat the acceleration; the year-end 2026 finish rests on the second-quarter statement alone

current state · 2026-07-21written 2026-08-24

C06עובדהhigh confidence

MVP Boost (Series C of the MVP Joint Venture, formed November 1, 2025) is a contemplated compression project projected to increase MVP Mainline's capacity by 0.6 Bcf/day, estimated to cost $400-540 million. The MVP Joint Venture applied to FERC for authorization to construct MVP Boost on October 23, 2025; pending regulatory approval, it is targeted for mid-2028.

sourceEQT Corporation Form 10-K for FY2025primary

historical · as of 2025-12-31 (FERC application filed 2025-10-23)written 2026-08-24

C14עובדהhigh confidence

As of February 11, 2026, EQT's senior notes were rated Baa3 (Stable) by Moody's, BBB- (Stable) by S&P and BBB- (Stable) by Fitch - investment grade at all three agencies, but at the lowest rung that qualifies as investment grade (Baa3/BBB-/BBB-, one notch above non-investment grade at each agency).

sourceEQT Corporation Form 10-K for FY2025primary

against this

EQT's own risk factors state that low natural gas prices, an increase in indebtedness, or other factors could result in a downgrade; being at the lowest investment-grade rung on all three agencies simultaneously (rather than comfortably inside investment grade, as with this repo's CEG thesis at BBB+/Baa1) means less cushion before a downgrade to non-investment grade, even as net debt is falling.

historical · as of 2026-02-11written 2026-08-24

C33עובדהhigh confidence

On 25 October 2026 Range signed a merger agreement under which EQT will acquire it for stock only: each Range share becomes 0.987 EQT shares, Range holders will own about 27% of the combined company and EQT holders 73%. Completion needs both companies' shareholder votes, antitrust clearance and an effective registration statement; the end date is 25 October 2027, extendable to 25 April 2028; the break fees are $423M payable by Range and $1,148M payable by EQT. Range's chief executive Dennis Degner and one other Range-chosen director join an EQT board of 12.

sourceRange Resources Corporation Form 8-K of 2026-10-26 (Item…primary

current state · 2026-10-26written 2026-10-26

C34טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence

EQT and Range state that the combination will bring $325M of annual base cost savings within two years (more than $600M over the longer term), lower EQT's break-even gas price for positive free cash flow to under $2 per MMBtu, give credit metrics of BBB quality at closing, and produce about $20B of free cash flow over five years at recent futures prices.

sourceRange Resources Corporation Form 8-K of 2026-10-26 (Item…primary

against this

These are the two companies' own projections in an announcement; no filing yet shows the analysis behind the savings or the free-cash-flow figure, and the registration statement will carry the financial advice each board relied on.

forwardwritten 2026-10-26

שאלות פתוחות

כמה מהצמיחה בארה״ב ביצוא ובחשמל EQT תזכה בה. אף גוף לא מפרסם את החלוקה.
האם הזול לעומת ההיסטוריה שלה אמיתי. עוד שנים אחרי המיזוג יבהירו זאת.
מי קונה את רוב הגז הנוזלי שלה. אף אחד מארבעת הסכמי היצוא המדווחים שלה אינו מציין לקוח.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 3 טענות

C22עובדהhigh confidence

Independent EIA and American Gas Association data (reused from this repo's Range Resources and Expand Energy theses, describing the same national LNG demand environment) show US LNG feedgas at roughly 17-18 Bcf/day in 2026, up double digits year over year, with the EIA projecting continued export growth in 2027; a separate industry-data source (Industrial Info Resources) reported feedgas volumes dipped from about 18.4 Bcf/day in Q1 2026 to about 17.8 Bcf/day in Q2 2026, a real quarter-over-quarter counter-signal within the broader growth trend.

sourceAmerican Gas Association - Natural Gas Market Indicators,…secondary EIA - U.S. natural gas exports to grow nearly 30% by 2027 as…secondary

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-08-24

C20עובדהhigh confidence

EQT's annual revenue was $3.06B (FY2021), $7.50B (FY2022), $6.91B (FY2023), $5.27B (FY2024) and $8.64B (FY2025, +63.9% year over year) - the FY2021-2024 window that anchors the research pack's 'prior-fiscal-years median' comparison spans the 2024 Equitrans Midstream Merger, so it blends a materially smaller, pre-merger EQT (without the Gathering and Transmission segments) into the historical base. FY2025 is the first full year with those segments consolidated for the entire period.

sourceEQT Corporation Form 10-K for FY2025primary EQT Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results and…primary Portfolio-management research pack (market tier: price,…secondary

historical · FY2021-FY2025written 2026-08-24

C07עובדהhigh confidence

As of December 31, 2025, EQT had entered three 20-year LNG offtake agreements for an aggregate 4.5 MTPA (3.0 MTPA expected to commence as early as 2030, 1.5 MTPA in 2031) plus a 20-year LNG tolling agreement for up to 2.0 MTPA expected to commence no earlier than 2030. Of the capacity that may commence in 2030, 1.0 MTPA of the offtake agreements and the entire 2.0 MTPA tolling commitment relate to projects that have not yet reached final investment decision. With the Q2 2026 print, EQT signed an additional 5-year LNG offtake SPA with an undisclosed 'large Asian integrated energy company' for 0.5 MTPA sourced from Gulf Coast facilities beginning 2028, expected to add approximately $45 million to 2028 free cash flow at recent strip pricing. No individual LNG counterparty is named in any of the four agreements.

sourceEQT Corporation Form 10-K for FY2025primary EQT Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results (8-K Ex-99.1)primary

against this

1.0 MTPA of the 4.5 MTPA offtake total and all 2.0 MTPA of the tolling commitment are explicitly pre-final-investment-decision, meaning roughly 43% of the aggregate 7.0 MTPA LNG-linked volume disclosed is conditional on projects that may not proceed, and none of the four counterparties is named, which limits independent verification of counterparty credit quality or deal terms.

2026-10-23editedEQT's own notice of 7 October puts the third-quarter results on 27 October; the 20 October refresh date came from a vendor estimate
2026-10-28editedthird-quarter 10-Q and release show no new LNG decision; refresh date rolled to the fourth-quarter results

current state · 2026-07-21written 2026-08-24

מה ישנה את ההערכה שלנו

ניטרלית→אטרקטיביתהצמיחה המוסכמת נעשית מחייבת והחוב ממשיך לרדת
נדרשים כל אלה:
- ○עסקאות היצוא והצנרת המותנות הופכות לחתומות, וההרחבה של Southgate וההרחבה של Mountain Valley נשארות בלוחות הזמנים המואצים.במעקב שוטף
- ○החוב נטו ממשיך לרדת מכ-5.5 מיליארד דולר, ולא נעצר ולא עולה.ייבדק בדוח הבא, עד 16 בפברואר
ניטרלית→לא אטרקטיביתהתוספת במחיר לא מוצדקת
מספיק אחד מאלה:
- ○העסקאות המותנות נופלות, או ש-Southgate או ההרחבה של Mountain Valley מתעכבים הרבה מעבר למועד שהובטח.במעקב שוטף
- ○סוכנות דירוג מורידה את האג״ח של EQT מתחת לדרגת השקעה.במעקב שוטף

נטעה גם אם

ההנחה לעומת ההיסטוריה של EQT עצמה נשארת גם כשההיסטוריה הזאת כוללת רק את החברה אחרי המיזוג בצנרת ב-2024.

מה בהמשך

דצמבר 2026 הפעלת MVP Southgate: האם הבנייה מסתיימת עד סוף 2026, כפי שנאמר בדוחות הרבעון השני, או באמצע 2028, כפי שהדוח הרבעוני החדש מציין; הודעה על סיום טרם נמסרה.

כל האירועים הצפויים

דצמבר 2026 הפעלת MVP Southgate: האם הבנייה מסתיימת עד סוף 2026, כפי שנאמר בדוחות הרבעון השני, או באמצע 2028, כפי שהדוח הרבעוני החדש מציין; הודעה על סיום טרם נמסרה.
31 בדצמבר 2026 תוכנית הרכישה החוזרת פוקעת: האם הדירקטוריון מחדש את 1.4 מיליארד הדולר שנותרו, והאם הירידה בחוב מתורגמת לרכישות חוזרות שמתחילות לקזז את המניות שהונפקו לעסקאות.
31 בינואר 2027 הגשת דוח הרישום של Range (S-4): איך נקבע יחס ההמרה, על מה מבוסס החיסכון של 325 מיליון דולר, ואילו מדדי אשראי תישא החברה המאוחדת.
פברואר 2027 תוצאות הרבעון הרביעי של 2026 ודוח ה-10-K לשנת הכספים 2026: העתודות בסוף השנה, החוב נטו, תחזית 2027, והאם איזו מעסקאות ה-LNG המותנות או מהמכירות החתומות הגיעה להחלטה סופית.

מה קרה מאז

נכתבה

24 באוגוסט

המחיר בעת כתיבת התזה

$50.81

25 בספטמבר

28 באוקטוברדוחותהדוח הרבעוני: החוב לא השתנה, ו-Southgate עדיין מתוארך ל-2028הדוח הרבעוני מציב את החוב נטו על כ-5.5 מיליארד דולר, כמעט ללא שינוי, ומתאריך את תחילת הפעילות של Southgate לאמצע 2028. אף אחת משתי הבדיקות לא נענתה, ולכן ההערכה נשארת ניטרלית.
27 באוקטוברדוחותEQT עקפה את התחזיות בעלויות ובהשקעות, והחוב ירד קלות, אך לא היו חדשות על צנרת או על LNG. ההערכה לא השתנתהתוצאות הרבעון השלישי של 2026.
26 באוקטוברחדשותEQT מסכימה לרכוש את Range Resources בעסקת מניות מלאהבעלי המניות של Range יחזיקו בכ-27% מהחברה המשולבת. העסקה זקוקה לשתי הצבעות ולאישור הגבלים עסקיים, והיא לא עונה על המבחנים שלנו בנושא Southgate, הייצוא והחוב, ולכן ההערכה הניטרלית לא השתנתה.
23 באוקטוברחדשותתוצאות הרבעון השלישי של EQT נדחו ל-27 באוקטובר; הדיבידנד עלה ב-3%ההודעה של EQT עצמה קובעת את פרסום התוצאות ל-27 באוקטובר. העלאת הדיבידנד וקו אשראי קצר מועד חדש לא משנים דבר בטיעון.
5 באוקטוברבדיקת התזההטיעון בעד ההשקעה מופיע עכשיו מתחת לשורה התחתונהאחרי פיילוט בחמש חברות, הבעלים ביקש להוסיף את הטיעון בעד ההשקעה לכל תזה.
4 באוקטוברבדיקת התזההצ'קליסט של הבעלים: עסקאות במניות מעבירות את הערך לבעלי המניות לדירוג 'דולף'הצ'קליסט של הבעלים מצא שהשיטה לא עוסקת במי שמנהל את החברה, בעלות הצמיחה, במקורות ההכנסה ובאירועים הצפויים. דוח הזימון לאסיפה והדוחות השלימו את הנושאים האלה.
26 בספטמברבדיקת התזההחוב נטו ירד ב-28% בשני רבעונים, לא בחצי. ההערכה לא השתנתהבראש העמוד נכתב שהחוב נטו כמעט הצטמצם בחצי בשני רבעונים. הדוחות מראים ירידה של 28% בשני רבעונים ושל 39% מסוף 2024. תוקן גם קריטריון שציין הנחה מול מתחרה שאין ל-EQT.
26 בספטמברבדיקת התזהExpand Energy תומחרה: EQT באמצע הקבוצה ברווח התזרימי. ההערכה לא השתנתהפגם בנתונים שלנו השאיר את Expand Energy מחוץ להשוואת הרווח התזרימי. כשהיא תומחרה, EQT נמצאת בין שתי המתחרות שלה במדד הזה, ועדיין יקרה מאמצע הטווח בכל מדדי המכירות והרווח.
24 בספטמברחדשותהלקוח הראשון בשם ליצוא LNG באירופה, משלוח אחד בשנה. ההערכה לא השתנתהEQT זכתה במכרז ליטאי למכירת משלוח LNG אחד בשנה ל-Ignitis, בשנים 2027 עד 2036.
24 באוגוסטהתזה נכתבהניטרלית, ביטחון בינוניעסק טוב יותר עם חוב שיורד, אבל היקרה בין המתחרות שבדוחותיה, וזולה לעומת העבר שלה רק משום שמיזוג ב-2024 שינה את משמעות העבר הזה.

נבדקה גם שלוש פעמים, ללא ממצא חדש שמצריך פעולה.

מקורות 14

Where this came from

Sources - 14

Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.

S01primarycompany filing2026-02-18
EQT Corporation Form 10-K for FY2025
business description, vertical-integration strategy, MVP Mainline/Southgate/Boost detail, LNG offtake/tolling commitments, competition section, credit ratings, securities class action detail
backsC01C02C04C05C06C07C09C10C14C15C19C20C21C26C29C30C31
S02primarycompany filing2026-07-21
EQT Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results (8-K Ex-99.1)
Q2 2026 results, raised FY2026 guidance, CPV Shay power-supply deal, MVP Southgate acceleration, new LNG SPA, Blackline Midstream acquisition, net debt and liquidity detail, GAAP/Adjusted EPS reconciliation
backsC05C07C08C11C12C13C16
S03primarycompany filing2026-02-17
EQT Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results and Provides 2026 Guidance (8-K Ex-99.1)
FY2025 full-year results, original 2026 guidance, Olympus Energy Acquisition detail, PV-10/reserves detail, net debt at YE2024/YE2025
backsC02C11C12C13C18C20
S04secondaryvendor data2026-08-24
Portfolio-management research pack (market tier: price, technicals, insiders, analysts, own-history valuation, news reaction)
content/EQT/research-pack.json
price/technicals snapshot, insider Form 4 aggregation, analyst consensus, own-history valuation time series, measured news reaction
backsC17C20
S05secondaryvendor data2026-08-24
Portfolio-management research pack (vendor_fundamentals tier: peer_valuation cohort, segments, filed-vs-vendor reconciliation)
content/EQT/research-pack.json
cohort valuation multiples on the filed-competitor cohort (RRC, AR, EXE), the filed_margin_gap detail, and the segments block
backsC03
S06secondaryindustry data2026-06-25
American Gas Association - Natural Gas Market Indicators, June 25, 2026
independent confirmation of US LNG feedgas growth, reused from this repo's Range Resources and Expand Energy theses
feedgas flows averaged 18.1 Bcf per day year-to-date through June 24, [...] 19 percent higher than the same period in 2025.
backsC22
S07secondaryindustry data2026-04-16
EIA - U.S. natural gas exports to grow nearly 30% by 2027 as LNG facilities ramp up
independent EIA export-growth projection, reused from this repo's Range Resources and Expand Energy theses
U.S. LNG exports rise 1.9 Bcf/d in 2026 to average 17.0 Bcf/d, and we forecast that LNG exports will increase an additional 9% (1.5 Bcf/d) in 2027.
backsC22
S08secondaryindustry data2026
Cleanview - Bypassing the Grid: How Data Center Developers Are Building Their Own Power Plants
independent tracking of behind-the-meter/off-grid power generation, reused from this repo's power-sector theses
Nearly every hyperscaler is pursuing behind-the-meter power projects-either directly or through partners.
backsC23
S09primarycompany filing2026-08-06
EQT Corporation Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026
the Q2 2026 segment note (Upstream/Gathering/Transmission revenue, operating income and margin, and the intersegment-eliminations detail)
backsC03C29
S10secondaryvendor data2026-09-26
Portfolio-management research pack, refreshed 2026-09-26 (price at the 25 September close; filed-series reader fixed that day)
content/EQT/research-pack.json
the 25 September close and technicals, the analyst snapshot, the own-history valuation series, the measured news reaction, theme co-movement, and the filed-competitor cohort re-struck at that close with Expand Energy priced on EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT and operating margin
backsC19C21C24C25
S11primarycompany filing2026-02-26
EQT Corporation proxy statement (DEF 14A), filed February 26, 2026, for the April 14, 2026 meeting
beneficial ownership as of February 5, 2026, holders above 5%, the 2025 STIP measures and weights and its 1.69 funding multiple, the 2025 LTIP mix and PSU design, the 2023 PSU payout, the CEO's appointment date and $1 salary, the 2026 framework
backsC27C28C31
S12primarycompany filing2026-10-04
EQT XBRL company facts, FY2020 to the four quarters to June 2026, frozen as content/EQT/financials.json
content/EQT/financials.json
revenue, selling general and administrative, share pay, capital spending, cost of revenue (CostOfGoodsAndServicesSold, which is transportation and processing only), operating income and diluted share counts per year
backsC30
S13primarycompany filing2026-10-26
Range Resources Corporation Form 8-K of 2026-10-26 (Item 1.01 merger agreement with EQT; Exhibit 99.1 joint press release)
merger terms: exchange ratio, ownership split, closing conditions, end date, break fees, board seats; the parties' joint release of synergies and credit intent
backsC33C34
S14primarycompany filing2026-10-28
Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026
third-quarter statements, debt table, MVP Southgate and Boost status, the Range merger note
backsC05C13C35