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Bitdeer Technologies Group

כורת ביטקוין עם שבבים משלה וחשמל זול, שמנסה עכשיו להשכיר לחברות AI את אותם אולמות מחוברים לחשמל.

הציון שלנולא אטרקטיבית ביטחון בינוני
הציונים
ציונים · 1-4
צמיחה3/4 ↑

ההכנסות עלו ב-77% ב-2025 וב-47% ברבעון השני, אבל הצמיחה מגיעה מכוח כרייה (hashrate) שנקנה בהון ובחוב, ממנוע אחד בלבד, ומכירות מכונות הכרייה קרסו.

איכות העסק2/4 →

גם עם שבב משלה וחשמל זול נרשם הפסד גולמי, ולחוזה השכירות היחיד יש מתחרות שהדיירים שלהן נהנים מערבות של Google.

איתנות פיננסית2/4 →

המזומנים מכסים שנה של שריפת מזומנים רק עם תוכנית מכירת המניות; 500 מיליון הדולר של Tydal עדיין לא גויסו, ו-517 מיליון דולר שחייבים לגורם קשור הם חוב שוטף.

יכולת ביצוע2/4 →

יעדי הכוח החישובי הושגו וחוזה השכירות נחתם, אבל ארבעה מועדים באתרים נדחו השנה, Clarington נתקע ולשבב הבא אין תאריך.

ערך לבעלי המניות1/4 ↓

המניה עלתה ב-41% בשנה, הוכנה תוכנית למכירת מניות בעוד מיליארד דולר, ועדיין אין מנגנון שימַמן את ההסבה הבאה בלעדיהן.

פוטנציאל2/4 ↑

שוק גדול, חוזה מותנה אחד: האשראי של הדייר, חוב הפרויקט וביקורת של טקסס נמצאים כולם מחוץ לחברה. ציון 3 ברגע שהערבות תבוצע.

רמת סיכון2/4 →

דייר אחד שהאשראי שלו מתברר בצעד יחיד, מלווה בשליטת היו״ר שחייבים לו 633 מיליון דולר, שליש מההכנסות מבהוטן, ותביעה משפטית שנוגעת ל-570 מגה-וואט.

תמחור2/4 ↑

המחיר של 2.8 מיליון דולר למגה-וואט כבר משקף הסבות ומימון חוב שעוד לא קיימים; לא ציון 1, כי המתחרות השיגו את שני אלה.

חוזק הראיות3/4 →

חוזה השכירות, המאזן, מספר המניות והערבויות לחוזי המתחרות מופיעים בדוחות; שיעור הרווח של 90%, ההשקעה ההונית של 500 מיליון דולר ותוכנית החוב הם של ההנהלה, והדייר לא מגיש דוחות כלל.

ההימור · שנתיים עד שלוש
ספקולציה2.4×

פי 2.4 אם ההימור מצליח · אם נכשל, נשארים עד 45% מהכסף.

השורה התחתונה

הציון שלנו: לא אטרקטיבית. Bitdeer כורה ביטקוין בחשמל זול שנמצא בשליטתה, ומנסה להשכיר לחברות AI את אותם אולמות שכבר מחוברים לחשמל. עד כה נחתם חוזה שכירות אחד בלבד, וכל צעד ממומן במניות חדשות, ולכן העסק חלש. המחיר מלא ולא זול: הוא כבר מגלם חוזים שעוד לא נחתמו, ולכן עיכוב יפגע במניה. כהימור היא ספקולטיבית: הכסף יגדל בערך פי שניים וחצי אם החוזה הראשון יתחיל להכניס כסף ושוכר שני יחתום, ואם זה ייכשל והמניה תלך אחרי מחיר הביטקוין, יישאר קצת פחות ממחציתו. המעבר הזה צריך מימון ממקור שאינו בעלי המניות.

הטיעון לטווח הארוךמעבדות AI צריכות בניינים עם חשמל כבר עכשיו, ול-Bitdeer יש אתרים שהחשמל בהם כבר מחובר; זה ישתלם אם היא תצליח לחתום עם דיירים ולגייס כסף להסבתם.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 8 טענות
C19עובדהhigh confidence
At 31 July 2026 Bitdeer had 1,752 MW of electrical capacity online (Rockdale 563, Jigmeling 500, Massillon 174, Gedu 100, Knoxville 86, Molde 84, Tydal 180 across three phases, Ethiopia 50, Wenatchee 13, Cyberjaya 2) and 1,228 MW in the pipeline (Clarington 570, Weathersfield 300, Rockdale 179, Fox Creek 101, Massillon 47, Malaysia 31.2), 2,980 MW in all; only Tydal's 133 gross MW carried a colocation tenant, and Rockdale's 563 MW was 'in active evaluation of AI transition'.
sourceBitdeer Q2 2026 results release (Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1)primary
current state · 2026-07-31written 2026-09-19
C08עובדהhigh confidence
On 4 August 2026 Bitdeer's subsidiary executed a 16-year colocation lease with Volta Tydal AS for 121 IT MW (133 gross) at Tydal, Norway: about $4.7B of base-term revenue, an average of about $202 per kW-month with 3% annual escalators and power passed through, an estimated 90% NOI margin, phases commencing 31 December 2026 and 31 March 2027, a no-fee tenant termination right at year 10, an 8-year extension option to about $8.0B, about $500M of remaining capex, and a credit backstop of about $1.3B in letters of credit from affiliates of J.P. Morgan and another bank that is 'anticipated' and 'subject to customary conditions', with Bitdeer entitled to terminate if Volta misses milestones on it.
sourceBitdeer announces $4.7B, 16-year lease for Tydal (Form 6-K,…primaryBitdeer signs colocation lease for Tydal, subject to…primaryBitdeer Q2 2026 results release (Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1)primary
forwardwritten 2026-09-19
C36אומדןmedium confidence
At the 18 September 2026 close of $12.97 and 271.8M shares, Bitdeer's market value is about $3.53B; adding $1,841.7M of borrowings and subtracting $496.3M of cash gives an enterprise value of about $4.87B, which is $2.78M per online megawatt, about 1.4 years of Tydal-style rent profit on every one of the 1,752 megawatts when 133 have a tenant, and 39 times Q2 2026's adjusted EBITDA annualised.
sourceResearch pack for BTDR (FMP market tier, FINRA short…secondaryBitdeer Q2 2026 results release (Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1)primary
against this
  • The pack's own market value is $3.03B, struck on a share count about 38M below the filed June count, so the vendor's enterprise value of $4.49B is $380M lower than this one
  • Netting the $196.9M of digital assets and receivables would lower the enterprise value to about $4.67B
  • On the filed-competitor cohort Bitdeer is the cheapest of nine listed miners on enterprise value to sales, 5.5 times against a median of 22.6, so the market already prices it far below peers whatever the per-megawatt figure says
current state · 2026-09-18written 2026-09-19
C12עובדהhigh confidence
271,782,245 ordinary shares were outstanding at 30 June 2026 (227,382,323 Class A and 44,399,922 Class V), against 235,552,084 at 31 December 2025, an increase of 15.4% in six months; the diluted weighted count for Q2 2026 was 246.3M against 194.0M a year earlier.
sourceBitdeer Q2 2026 results release (Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1)primaryBitdeer Form 20-F for the year ended 31 December 2025primary
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-09-19
C10הסקהmedium confidence
Until the letters of credit are issued, Tydal's rent rests on the promise of a company that was six months old when it signed and has no filed accounts, so the lease is a plan the share count is funding rather than a contracted asset the debt market has priced.
derivedC08 (backstop anticipated, Bitdeer's termination right), C09 (Volta's age and funding), C13 (the ATM funding Q2), C33 (project debt not yet raised)
against this
  • TeraWulf's and Cipher's Google backstops show that a hyperscaler or bank wrap does get executed after signing, and management chose Volta for 'the quality and enforceability of their anticipated credit support'
  • Bitdeer holds the termination right if the credit milestones are missed, so it is not locked into an uncredited tenant; the downside is a lost year, not a bad lease
  • Volta's $5B Azora programme and its $300M equity are real money behind the tenant even before a bank letter exists
current state · 2026-09-19written 2026-09-19
C35אומדןmedium confidence
A leased gross megawatt at Tydal earns about $1.97M of rent profit a year ($2.4M per IT MW on 121 IT MW at the estimated 90% margin, $261M, over 133 gross MW), against about $0.31M per megawatt-year that Bitdeer's mining lines earned in Q2 2026 before depreciation ($90.3M of cash gross profit across self-mining, co-mining, cloud hash rate and hosting, annualised, over an average load of 1,162 MW), roughly 6.3 times.
sourceBitdeer announces $4.7B, 16-year lease for Tydal (Form 6-K,…primaryBitdeer Q2 2026 results release (Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1)primary
against this
  • The 90% margin is management's estimate and no Tydal phase has yet billed a dollar
  • Mining's Q2 figure was struck at a hashprice of $32.5, the year's low; at the $55.7 of September 2025 the same fleet would earn about 1.7 times as much per megawatt, cutting the ratio to under four
  • A leased megawatt needs about $3.8M of capex per gross megawatt before it earns anything, which the mining megawatt has already spent
current state · 2026-09-19written 2026-09-19
C46הסקהmedium confidence
Converting a megawatt to colocation at Tydal's cost takes about $3.8M of capex per gross megawatt before rent starts ($500M over 133 gross MW, management's $4.0M per IT MW), so converting the next 600 MW would need roughly $2.3B, more than the company's $496M of cash and its entire $1B share programme together, and management says US sites will cost closer to a typical build than Norway did.
derivedC08 (remaining capex and megawatts), C11 (cash), C13 (the programme), C42 and the Q1 call on US costs
against this
  • Management expects project-level debt to fund Tydal fully and to 'unlock significant incremental liquidity', so the equity share of a conversion could be a fraction of its cost if lenders behave as they did for TeraWulf and Cipher
  • A tenant can fund its own fit-out, and AI cloud contracts are structured for prepayments to cover about half of capex
  • Tydal was 'remarkably less' than a normal build because the site was already a mining brownfield, and Rockdale and Clarington are the same kind of site
current state · 2026-09-19written 2026-09-19
C25עובדהhigh confidence
CBRE's North America Data Center Trends for the first half of 2026 reports primary-market vacancy at a record low 1.4%, capacity under construction up 24.8% to a record 7,481.1 MW, commitments on 80.4% of under-construction capacity against 74.3% a year earlier, and under 1,500 MW of available capacity, about six months of demand.
sourceCBRE, North America Data Center Trends H1 2026primary
historical · H1 2026written 2026-09-19
01

החברה

ביטקוין משלם תגמול קבוע למי שתורם כוח מחשוב לרשת שלו, ו-Bitdeer מתחרה עליו עם 243,000 מכונות כרייה שתכננה בעצמה. הכרייה עדיין רוב העסק: 168.4 מיליון דולר מתוך 228.8 מיליון ברבעון שהסתיים ביוני 2026.

עכשיו היא משדרגת אולמות ל-AI בשתי דרכים: השכרת אולם שלם עם חשמל לדייר שמביא את המחשבים, כמו ב-Tydal שבנורווגיה, או השכרת מערכות NVIDIA שלה לפי שעה במלזיה.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 5 טענות
C01עובדהhigh confidence
Bitdeer mines bitcoin for its own account on its own SEALMINER rigs in datacentres it operates; in Q2 2026 revenue of $228.8M was self-mining $168.4M, co-mining $25.0M, AI cloud $14.0M, cloud hash rate $3.7M, general and membership hosting $15.6M, and rig sales $0.4M. The company reports one operating segment.
sourceBitdeer Q2 2026 results release (Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1)primaryBitdeer Form 20-F for the year ended 31 December 2025primary
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-09-19
C04עובדהhigh confidence
Self-mining hashrate was 73.0 EH/s at 30 June 2026 (up 342% in a year) on 243,000 rigs; 2,694 bitcoin were mined in Q2 2026; the fleet ran at 15.8 joules per terahash against 25.7 a year earlier, used 2,537,000 MWh in the quarter, and paid an average $44 per MWh.
sourceBitdeer Q2 2026 results release (Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1)primary
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-09-19
C08עובדהhigh confidence
On 4 August 2026 Bitdeer's subsidiary executed a 16-year colocation lease with Volta Tydal AS for 121 IT MW (133 gross) at Tydal, Norway: about $4.7B of base-term revenue, an average of about $202 per kW-month with 3% annual escalators and power passed through, an estimated 90% NOI margin, phases commencing 31 December 2026 and 31 March 2027, a no-fee tenant termination right at year 10, an 8-year extension option to about $8.0B, about $500M of remaining capex, and a credit backstop of about $1.3B in letters of credit from affiliates of J.P. Morgan and another bank that is 'anticipated' and 'subject to customary conditions', with Bitdeer entitled to terminate if Volta misses milestones on it.
sourceBitdeer announces $4.7B, 16-year lease for Tydal (Form 6-K,…primaryBitdeer signs colocation lease for Tydal, subject to…primaryBitdeer Q2 2026 results release (Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1)primary
forwardwritten 2026-09-19
C28עובדהhigh confidence
NVIDIA's GB300 NVL72 is a fully liquid-cooled, rack-scale system of 72 Blackwell Ultra GPUs and 36 Grace CPUs; Bitdeer's A201 site in Malaysia is planned to hold 128 such systems and Tydal is to be configured to run NVIDIA GPUs for Volta's end customer.
sourceNVIDIA GB300 NVL72 product pageprimaryBitdeer Q2 2026 results release (Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1)primaryBitdeer announces $4.7B, 16-year lease for Tydal (Form 6-K,…primary
current state · 2026-09-19written 2026-09-19
C43עובדהhigh confidence
Bitdeer designs its own mining chip and rigs: the SEALMINER A4 Ultra Hydro runs at 9.45 joules per terahash at the chip level, fabrication depends on a single third-party foundry (TSMC, per the chief strategy officer), a 187,000 square-foot assembly plant in Sparks, Nevada is due by end-2026 at 10,000 units a month, and in 2026 the wafer inventory was allocated to the company's own fleet, so rig sales fell to $0.4M in Q2 2026 from $69.5M a year earlier.
sourceBitdeer Q2 2026 results release (Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1)primaryBitdeer Q2 2026 earnings call transcriptprimaryBitdeer Form 20-F for the year ended 31 December 2025primaryBitdeer Q1 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary
current state · 2026-08-10written 2026-09-19

ממה היא מרוויחה

הכרייה מניבה ביטקוין ש-Bitdeer מוכרת בתוך חודש, ולכן ההכנסות נעות עם מחיר הביטקוין ועם הכרייה של המתחרות. ברבעון שהסתיים ביוני נשארו מהכרייה 45.8 סנט מכל דולר אחרי חשמל, והיא הפסידה כשנזקף הפחת על המכונות.

מגה-וואט מושכר שווה הרבה יותר: ב-Tydal הוא אמור להניב כ-1.97 מיליון דולר רווח משכירות בשנה, בערך פי 6.3 ממה שהניב מגה-וואט של כרייה.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 3 טענות
C18הסקהmedium confidence
Bitdeer is not a bitcoin holder: it sells what it mines within the month and has borrowed coins from its chairman's lender to sell ahead of production, so a bitcoin rally raises a liability marked in bitcoin rather than a treasury.
derivedC17 (61 coins held, $316.6M borrowed in bitcoin, a gain booked as bitcoin fell), C15 (the lender is the related party)
against this
  • Management retains the flexibility to hold coins and did so through 2025 ($65.1M of bitcoin at year-end), so the posture is a choice that can reverse
  • The bitcoin loan is collateralised with bitcoin, so part of production is pledged rather than sold, and the facility of 6,000 coins is under half a year of production at August's pace
  • Selling production is what every listed miner in the cohort with a build-out to fund does; CleanSpark's own 10-K says the same
current state · 2026-08-31written 2026-09-19
C03אומדןhigh confidence
In Q2 2026 self-mining kept 45.8 cents of each revenue dollar before depreciation ($168.4M of revenue less $84.7M of electricity and $6.5M of other costs, $77.2M) and lost 1.6 cents after $79.8M of depreciation and stock compensation; the company's gross margin was −3.7% and the operating loss $101.7M.
sourceBitdeer Q2 2026 results release (Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1)primary
against this
  • Q1 2026 was worse, a company-wide gross loss of $39.0M, and Q2's improvement came partly from a 15% sequential fall in seasonal power cost that management does not present as permanent
  • Depreciation on rigs now written off over two to three years is a real replacement cost for a fleet that must be renewed to hold hashrate share, so the pre-depreciation margin overstates what the line earns over a cycle
  • The 'other costs' line excludes the G&A and R&D that support mining, so the 45.8% is a contribution margin rather than a segment profit
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-09-19
C35אומדןmedium confidence
A leased gross megawatt at Tydal earns about $1.97M of rent profit a year ($2.4M per IT MW on 121 IT MW at the estimated 90% margin, $261M, over 133 gross MW), against about $0.31M per megawatt-year that Bitdeer's mining lines earned in Q2 2026 before depreciation ($90.3M of cash gross profit across self-mining, co-mining, cloud hash rate and hosting, annualised, over an average load of 1,162 MW), roughly 6.3 times.
sourceBitdeer announces $4.7B, 16-year lease for Tydal (Form 6-K,…primaryBitdeer Q2 2026 results release (Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1)primary
against this
  • The 90% margin is management's estimate and no Tydal phase has yet billed a dollar
  • Mining's Q2 figure was struck at a hashprice of $32.5, the year's low; at the $55.7 of September 2025 the same fleet would earn about 1.7 times as much per megawatt, cutting the ratio to under four
  • A leased megawatt needs about $3.8M of capex per gross megawatt before it earns anything, which the mining megawatt has already spent
current state · 2026-09-19written 2026-09-19
פירוט מקורות ההכנסה
מקורמשקל במכירות (הרבעון השני של 2026)איך
Self-mining73.6%ביטקוין שנכרה על חשבונה במכונות SEALMINER שלה, במרכזי הנתונים שלה, ונמכר בתוך חודש.
Co-mining10.9%ביטקוין שנכרה על חשבונה במכונות שלה שמוצבות במרכזי נתונים של מפעילים אחרים.
Hosting (general and membership)6.8%חשמל ותחזוקה שנמכרים לכורים ששומרים את המכונות שלהם באתרים של Bitdeer; מסלול ה-membership בחוזים ארוכי טווח.
AI cloud6.1%מעבדי NVIDIA (GPU) שמושכרים ללקוחות AI, יותר ויותר בחוזים ל-5 שנים עם מקדמות; עד היום הפעילות מפסידה ברמה הגולמית.
Cloud hash rate1.6%תפוקת כרייה שנמכרת ללקוחות במנוי, בלי שהם מחזיקים מכונה.
SEALMINER rig sales0.2%מכירת המכונות שלה לכורים אחרים; 17.5% מההכנסות ב-2025, וכמעט נעלמה אחרי שהמכונות נשמרו לכרייה עצמית.

ההנהלה

ג'יהאן וו, ממייסדי יצרנית מכונות הכרייה Bitmain, ייסד את Bitdeer, מכהן כיו״ר מאז 2021 ועומד בראשה כמנכ״ל מאז 2024; סמנכ״ל הכספים שלה בתפקיד מאז 2021. וו מחזיק בכחמישית מהמניות, אבל לכל מניה שלו יש עשרה קולות, ולכן הוא שולט בכשבעה קולות מכל עשרה, ובעלי מניות מבחוץ לא יכולים להצביע נגדו. החברה לא מפרטת לפי מה נקבעים הבונוסים, ולאופציות העובדים אין יעדים מוגדרים. מאז ההנפקה היא מכרה הרבה יותר מניות ממה שקנתה בחזרה.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 5 טענות
C58עובדהhigh confidence
Jihan Wu, co-founder of Bitmain in 2013, founded Bitdeer, has chaired its board since January 2021 and has been chief executive since March 2024, succeeding Linghui Kong (chief executive 2021 to 2024, now chief business officer); Jianchun Liu has been chief financial officer since January 2021 and Haris Basit chief strategy officer since June 2023; three of seven directors are independent.
sourceBitdeer Form 20-F for the year ended 31 December 2025primary
current state · 2026-04-30written 2026-10-04
C59עובדהhigh confidence
At 21 April 2026 directors and executive officers as a group held 5,710,768 Class A and all 44,399,922 Class V shares, 20.5% of shares and 69.8% of votes; Jihan Wu alone held 19.5% and 69.5%, his ten-vote Class V shares sitting in an irrevocable family trust whose voting he directs. Tether's entities held 15.8% of shares and 6.0% of votes.
sourceBitdeer Form 20-F for the year ended 31 December 2025primary
current state · 2026-04-21written 2026-10-04
C60עובדהhigh confidence
Bitdeer paid its executive officers and directors about $10.8M in cash and benefits in 2025 in aggregate, with no per-person figure and no bonus metric disclosed; long-term awards are share options under the 2023 plan at exercise prices of $3.50 to $11.30 granted 2021 to 2025, on terms the committee sets with no performance condition disclosed, and Jihan Wu holds none; the 2023 Performance Share Plan, whose share limit rises with market value, had granted no awards.
sourceBitdeer Form 20-F for the year ended 31 December 2025primary
historical · FY2025written 2026-10-04
C61עובדהhigh confidence
About 111.3M shares came out of the April 2023 listing and 271.8M were outstanding at 30 June 2026. The rise came from at-the-market sales (23.3M shares for $335.1M net in 2024, 13.2M for $226.4M in 2025, $457M in Q2 2026), 18.6M to Tether, 18.8M for FreeChain, a rig-design company bought in September 2024, and direct offerings at $13.94 and $7.94 that funded repurchases of convertible notes. Buybacks totalled about $72.6M; four convertibles of $1.55B were issued since November 2024; no dividend has ever been paid.
sourceBitdeer Form 20-F for the year ended 31 December 2025primaryBitdeer Q2 2026 results release (Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1)primary
against this

The Norway purchase of April 2024, paid mostly in cash with 417,130 shares, is the site that became the Tydal lease (C08), and FreeChain's rig development preceded $108.3M of rig sales in 2025 (C02): not every share issued bought nothing.

historical · April 2023 to June 2026written 2026-10-04
C16עובדהhigh confidence
Jihan Wu holds all 44,399,922 Class V shares, each carrying ten votes, plus 2,946,206 Class A shares: 19.5% of shares and 69.5% of voting power at 21 April 2026. Tether's investment entities, controlled by Giancarlo Devasini, held 37,729,510 Class A shares, 19.7% of the class, at 12 June 2026.
sourceBitdeer Form 20-F for the year ended 31 December 2025primarySchedule 13D/A (Amendment No. 13) by Tether Global…primary
current state · 2026-06-12written 2026-09-19
02

היתרון התחרותי, ומי מאיים עליו

למה הלקוחות נשארים

בכרייה היתרון הוא עלות. Bitdeer מתכננת שבב משלה, ולכן אינה משלמת רווח ליצרן מכונות, והחשמל שלה עלה בממוצע 44 דולר לשעת מגה-וואט. היא מפעילה 8.7% מהכרייה בעולם.

אצל דיירי AI היתרון נדיר יותר: חשמל שכבר מחובר. בשווקי מרכזי הנתונים העיקריים בצפון אמריקה נשאר שטח פנוי להשכרה לפחות מחצי שנה.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 4 טענות
C43עובדהhigh confidence
Bitdeer designs its own mining chip and rigs: the SEALMINER A4 Ultra Hydro runs at 9.45 joules per terahash at the chip level, fabrication depends on a single third-party foundry (TSMC, per the chief strategy officer), a 187,000 square-foot assembly plant in Sparks, Nevada is due by end-2026 at 10,000 units a month, and in 2026 the wafer inventory was allocated to the company's own fleet, so rig sales fell to $0.4M in Q2 2026 from $69.5M a year earlier.
sourceBitdeer Q2 2026 results release (Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1)primaryBitdeer Q2 2026 earnings call transcriptprimaryBitdeer Form 20-F for the year ended 31 December 2025primaryBitdeer Q1 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary
current state · 2026-08-10written 2026-09-19
C04עובדהhigh confidence
Self-mining hashrate was 73.0 EH/s at 30 June 2026 (up 342% in a year) on 243,000 rigs; 2,694 bitcoin were mined in Q2 2026; the fleet ran at 15.8 joules per terahash against 25.7 a year earlier, used 2,537,000 MWh in the quarter, and paid an average $44 per MWh.
sourceBitdeer Q2 2026 results release (Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1)primary
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-09-19
C07אומדןmedium confidence
Bitdeer's proprietary hashrate of 84.1 EH/s at 31 August 2026 is about 8.7% of the network's 963 EH/s.
sourceBitdeer August 2026 production and operations update (Form…primaryblockchain.com charts API: hash-rate, difficulty and…primary
against this
  • The network figure is a seven-day estimate that moves 10% week to week, so the share is 8% to 9.5% depending on the day
  • Proprietary hashrate includes 4.2 EH/s of rigs delivered but not yet deployed or offline for economics, so the earning share is nearer 8.3%
current state · 2026-08-31written 2026-09-19
C25עובדהhigh confidence
CBRE's North America Data Center Trends for the first half of 2026 reports primary-market vacancy at a record low 1.4%, capacity under construction up 24.8% to a record 7,481.1 MW, commitments on 80.4% of under-construction capacity against 74.3% a year earlier, and under 1,500 MW of available capacity, about six months of demand.
sourceCBRE, North America Data Center Trends H1 2026primary
historical · H1 2026written 2026-09-19

האיום

ב-AI המתחרות הקדימו. Google ערבה לשכירות בחוזי AI ב-TeraWulf וב-Cipher,‏ Core Scientific כבר מחייבת את CoreWeave על 395 מגה-וואט, וענקיות הענן הגדולות בונות בעצמן כמעט 60% מהקיבולת שלהן.

בכרייה אין לקוח לשמור: כל מכונה שמתחרה מדליקה מקטינה את 8.7% של Bitdeer מתגמול קבוע.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 3 טענות
C23עובדהhigh confidence
TeraWulf's Fluidstack HPC leases (168 MW, ten-year terms with two five-year renewals) carry a Google backstop under which Google either pays the termination fee or assumes the lease on a Fluidstack default, for which TeraWulf issued Google warrants over 73,580,000 shares at $0.01; Cipher carries a $544.5M asset representing Google's agreement to make Fluidstack's lease payments; Core Scientific has about 590 MW leased to CoreWeave across five sites, 395 MW of it billing at 30 June 2026, on 2.1 GW of gross utility power.
sourceTeraWulf Inc. Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026primaryCipher Digital Inc. Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June…primaryCore Scientific, Inc. Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30…primary
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-09-19
C26עובדהmedium confidence
Synergy Research measures almost 60% of hyperscale datacentre capacity as own-built and owned, with the balance leased, and projects hyperscale operators at 67% of all capacity by 2031.
sourceSynergy Research Group: hyperscale operators to account for…primary
current state · 2026-04-07written 2026-09-19
C07אומדןmedium confidence
Bitdeer's proprietary hashrate of 84.1 EH/s at 31 August 2026 is about 8.7% of the network's 963 EH/s.
sourceBitdeer August 2026 production and operations update (Form…primaryblockchain.com charts API: hash-rate, difficulty and…primary
against this
  • The network figure is a seven-day estimate that moves 10% week to week, so the share is 8% to 9.5% depending on the day
  • Proprietary hashrate includes 4.2 EH/s of rigs delivered but not yet deployed or offline for economics, so the earning share is nearer 8.3%
current state · 2026-08-31written 2026-09-19

המתחרות: WULF, CIFR, CORZ, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, META, IREN, CRWV, NBIS, MARA, CLSK, RIOT, HUT.

פירוט המתחרים
סימולמתחרהתחומי התחרותשלבבסיס להשוואה
WULF · CIFRהשכרות ה-HPC של Fluidstack ב-TeraWulf (Lake Mariner) וב-Cipher (Barber Lake), כש-Google ערבה לשכירותבסיס להשוואה: כןקולוקיישן (colocation) למרכזי נתונים ל-AI ול-HPCכבר נמכרכן
CORZשירותי הקולוקיישן של Core Scientific ל-CoreWeave, כ-590 מגה-וואט בחמישה אתריםבסיס להשוואה: כןקולוקיישן (colocation) למרכזי נתונים ל-AI ול-HPCכבר נמכרכן
MSFT · AMZN · GOOGL · METAקיבולת שענקיות הענן בונות בעצמן: Microsoft,‏ Amazon,‏ Google ו-Metaבסיס להשוואה: בתחום אחד בלבדקולוקיישן (colocation) למרכזי נתונים ל-AI ול-HPCכבר נמכרבתחום אחד בלבד
IREN · CRWV · NBISחוזי ה-GPU של IREN עם Microsoft ו-NVIDIA, וספקיות הענן החדשות ש-IREN מונה: CoreWeave,‏ Nebius,‏ Crusoe,‏ Lambda,‏ Nscaleבסיס להשוואה: כןקולוקיישן (colocation) למרכזי נתונים ל-AI ול-HPCכבר נמכרכן
MARAMARA Holdings ושאר כוח הכרייה ברשתבסיס להשוואה: כןכריית ביטקוין עצמיתכבר נמכרכן
CLSKCleanSparkבסיס להשוואה: כן-כבר נמכרכן
RIOTRiot Platformsבסיס להשוואה: כן-כבר נמכרכן
HUTHut 8בסיס להשוואה: כן-כבר נמכרכן
03

פוטנציאל הצמיחה

גודל ההזדמנות

בשווקי מרכזי הנתונים העיקריים בצפון אמריקה היו בבנייה 7,481 מגה-וואט במחצית הראשונה של 2026, עלייה של 24.8%, ו-80.4% מהם כבר הוקצו, ופחות מ-1,500 נותרו להשכרה. אף גוף לא מפרסם קיבולת להשכרה בנורווגיה או בטקסס הכפרית, ולכן אי אפשר לאמוד את גודל השוק של Bitdeer עצמה. מתוך 1,752 המגה-וואט שלה, 133 מושכרים.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 2 טענות
C25עובדהhigh confidence
CBRE's North America Data Center Trends for the first half of 2026 reports primary-market vacancy at a record low 1.4%, capacity under construction up 24.8% to a record 7,481.1 MW, commitments on 80.4% of under-construction capacity against 74.3% a year earlier, and under 1,500 MW of available capacity, about six months of demand.
sourceCBRE, North America Data Center Trends H1 2026primary
historical · H1 2026written 2026-09-19
C19עובדהhigh confidence
At 31 July 2026 Bitdeer had 1,752 MW of electrical capacity online (Rockdale 563, Jigmeling 500, Massillon 174, Gedu 100, Knoxville 86, Molde 84, Tydal 180 across three phases, Ethiopia 50, Wenatchee 13, Cyberjaya 2) and 1,228 MW in the pipeline (Clarington 570, Weathersfield 300, Rockdale 179, Fox Creek 101, Massillon 47, Malaysia 31.2), 2,980 MW in all; only Tydal's 133 gross MW carried a colocation tenant, and Rockdale's 563 MW was 'in active evaluation of AI transition'.
sourceBitdeer Q2 2026 results release (Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1)primary
current state · 2026-07-31written 2026-09-19

מי כבר התחייב

דייר אחד: Volta, חברה שיצאה לדרך באוגוסט 2026 עם כ-300 מיליון דולר של הון סיכון, ששוכרת 121 מגה-וואט ב-Tydal. ערבות הבנק שלה על 1.3 מיליארד דולר עדיין 'צפויה', והיא רשאית לעזוב ללא עלות בשנה העשירית.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 3 טענות
C08עובדהhigh confidence
On 4 August 2026 Bitdeer's subsidiary executed a 16-year colocation lease with Volta Tydal AS for 121 IT MW (133 gross) at Tydal, Norway: about $4.7B of base-term revenue, an average of about $202 per kW-month with 3% annual escalators and power passed through, an estimated 90% NOI margin, phases commencing 31 December 2026 and 31 March 2027, a no-fee tenant termination right at year 10, an 8-year extension option to about $8.0B, about $500M of remaining capex, and a credit backstop of about $1.3B in letters of credit from affiliates of J.P. Morgan and another bank that is 'anticipated' and 'subject to customary conditions', with Bitdeer entitled to terminate if Volta misses milestones on it.
sourceBitdeer announces $4.7B, 16-year lease for Tydal (Form 6-K,…primaryBitdeer signs colocation lease for Tydal, subject to…primaryBitdeer Q2 2026 results release (Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1)primary
forwardwritten 2026-09-19
C09עובדהmedium confidence
Volta emerged from stealth on 4 August 2026 with a $10B strategic partnership with an unnamed AI lab, a $5B infrastructure financing programme from Azora, and about $300M raised in a seed and Series A round valuing it at $2.4B, led by Azora, Andreessen Horowitz, Altimeter and NVIDIA; its Norway project is 133 MW on NVIDIA Vera Rubin systems.
sourceVolta emerges from stealth with $10 billion AI lab…secondaryThe Register: Cloud startup Volta claims $10B AI lab deal…tertiary
current state · 2026-08-04written 2026-09-19
C10הסקהmedium confidence
Until the letters of credit are issued, Tydal's rent rests on the promise of a company that was six months old when it signed and has no filed accounts, so the lease is a plan the share count is funding rather than a contracted asset the debt market has priced.
derivedC08 (backstop anticipated, Bitdeer's termination right), C09 (Volta's age and funding), C13 (the ATM funding Q2), C33 (project debt not yet raised)
against this
  • TeraWulf's and Cipher's Google backstops show that a hyperscaler or bank wrap does get executed after signing, and management chose Volta for 'the quality and enforceability of their anticipated credit support'
  • Bitdeer holds the termination right if the credit milestones are missed, so it is not locked into an uncredited tenant; the downside is a lost year, not a bad lease
  • Volta's $5B Azora programme and its $300M equity are real money behind the tenant even before a bank letter exists
current state · 2026-09-19written 2026-09-19
04

התוצאות

עלות הצמיחה

הצמיחה הפכה את Bitdeer לפחות רווחית, לא ליותר. הוצאות המשרדים קטנות ככל שהמכירות עולות, אבל תכנון שבבים משלה, בניית אתרים ותשלום על חשמל ועל מכונות שמתבלות מהר גדלו כולם מהר יותר מהמכירות, ולכן כל דולר הכנסה נוסף הגיע עם שיעור רווח דק יותר, ולאחרונה גם עם הפסד.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 3 טענות
C57עובדהhigh confidence
Under IFRS, on revenue of $368.6M, $349.8M and $620.3M in 2023, 2024 and 2025: R&D was 8.0%, 22.0% and 24.8% of sales; general and administrative 18.0%, 18.4% and 13.6%; selling 2.2%, 2.3% and 1.1%; share-based payments 12.3%, 9.7% and 6.2%; cash spent on property, investment property and intangibles 17.2%, 34.2% and 37.4%; and gross margin 21.1%, 19.0% and 9.8%. Under US GAAP in Q2 2026, R&D was 15.8%, G&A 15.0% and gross margin -3.7%.
sourceBitdeer Form 20-F for the year ended 31 December 2025primaryBitdeer Q2 2026 results release (Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1)primary
against this
  • The capex line excludes SEALMINER rigs, which Bitdeer builds as inventory and reclassified to property ($613.0M in Q2 2026, C32), so it understates what growth costs in capital.
  • 2023 to 2025 are IFRS and 2026 is US GAAP, and Q2 2026's R&D includes a one-off development expense, so the 2026 ratios are not a clean continuation of the series.
historical · FY2023 to Q2 2026written 2026-10-04
C39עובדהhigh confidence
In Q2 2026 revenue was $228.8M, cost of revenue $237.3M, gross loss $8.5M, operating expenses $72.6M (G&A $34.3M, R&D $36.1M including a one-off development expense, selling $2.2M), operating loss $101.7M, net interest expense $31.1M, net loss $92.3M and adjusted EBITDA $31.1M; Q1 2026 was a gross loss of $39.0M and a net loss of $159.5M, and the half-year net loss was $251.8M.
sourceBitdeer Q2 2026 results release (Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1)primary
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-09-19
C31עובדהhigh confidence
From July 2025 the estimated useful lives of mining rigs were shortened from two-to-five years to two-to-three years; rig depreciation rose from $19.5M in 2024 to $83.0M in 2025, and total depreciation and amortisation in Q2 2026 was $107.7M against $22.8M a year earlier.
sourceBitdeer Form 20-F for the year ended 31 December 2025primaryBitdeer Q2 2026 results release (Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1)primary
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-09-19

הדוח האחרון (10 באוגוסט)

הרבעון שהסתיים ביוני 2026, לפי הדוחות.

47%
צמיחת המכירות
לעומת הרבעון המקביל אשתקד
21.1%
צמיחה לעומת הרבעון הקודם
לעומת ‎-16.0% ברבעון שלפני כן
-44¢
רווח תפעולי
לכל דולר מכירות

הרבעון שהסתיים ביוני 2026 הראה את מחיר המעבר. ההכנסות עלו ל-228.8 מיליון דולר, אבל אחרי שנזקף הפחת על המכונות רשמה החברה הפסד גולמי של 8.5 מיליון דולר והפסד נקי של 92.3 מיליון דולר. חלק מזה בחירה: המכונות נמחקות עכשיו בשנתיים עד שלוש, והפחת זינק ל-107.7 מיליון דולר מ-22.8 מיליון.

המזומנים יצאו מהר עוד יותר. הפעילות השוטפת צרכה 158.5 מיליון דולר והבנייה 266.0 מיליון, ו-457 מיליון דולר ממניות חדשות סגרו את הפער. המניה ירדה ב-20.0% באותו יום.

מה זה אומר על התזההדוח אישר את החשש שמאחורי הציון ״לא אטרקטיבית״. המעבר להשכרת חשמל ל-AI עולה יותר מזומנים ממה שהעסק מייצר, ומניות חדשות כיסו את הפער. שום דבר בדוח לא הראה את המימון החיצוני שיאפשר לחוזה להשתלם לבעלי המניות של היום.

הרבעון בפירוט

צמיחת המכירות לעומת הרבעון הקודם, לפי הדוחות.

רווח למניה $-0.37 לעומת $-0.36 צפוי.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 5 טענות
C39עובדהhigh confidence
In Q2 2026 revenue was $228.8M, cost of revenue $237.3M, gross loss $8.5M, operating expenses $72.6M (G&A $34.3M, R&D $36.1M including a one-off development expense, selling $2.2M), operating loss $101.7M, net interest expense $31.1M, net loss $92.3M and adjusted EBITDA $31.1M; Q1 2026 was a gross loss of $39.0M and a net loss of $159.5M, and the half-year net loss was $251.8M.
sourceBitdeer Q2 2026 results release (Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1)primary
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-09-19
C31עובדהhigh confidence
From July 2025 the estimated useful lives of mining rigs were shortened from two-to-five years to two-to-three years; rig depreciation rose from $19.5M in 2024 to $83.0M in 2025, and total depreciation and amortisation in Q2 2026 was $107.7M against $22.8M a year earlier.
sourceBitdeer Form 20-F for the year ended 31 December 2025primaryBitdeer Q2 2026 results release (Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1)primary
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-09-19
C32עובדהhigh confidence
In Q2 2026 operating activities used $158.5M of cash ($505.4M in the half-year), capital expenditure was $266.0M ($150.0M on SEALMINERs and $116.0M on datacentres, GPUs and freight), $195.5M came from selling digital assets, financing provided $428.9M, and $613.0M of rig inventory was reclassified to property, plant and equipment.
sourceBitdeer Q2 2026 results release (Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1)primary
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-09-19
C13עובדהhigh confidence
Bitdeer raised $457M net through its at-the-market programme in Q2 2026 ($463.8M gross), and on 10 August 2026 filed an automatic shelf as a well-known seasoned issuer with a prospectus supplement for up to $1.0B of Class A shares through thirteen sales agents at commissions of up to 3%.
sourceBitdeer Q2 2026 results release (Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1)primaryBitdeer prospectus supplement, up to $1,000,000,000 of Class…primaryBitdeer Q2 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary
current state · 2026-08-10written 2026-09-19
C37עובדהhigh confidence
Over the 252 sessions to 18 September 2026 the shares fell 23.4% while trailing sales per share rose 79.3%, so the multiple on sales fell 57.3% with diluted shares up 27.0%; the 52-week range was $6.92 to $27.80; the Tydal announcement moved the shares +0.1% on 4 August and the Q2 print −20.0% on 10 August; 55.6M shares (42.3% of the float) were sold short at 31 August; 12 of 13 rated analysts were positive on 1 September and the average price target was down 37% over the year.
sourceResearch pack for BTDR (FMP market tier, FINRA short…secondaryBitdeer Q2 2026 results release (Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1)primary
current state · 2026-09-18written 2026-09-19
לאן הלך הכסף

היא מכרה מניות: 457 מיליון דולר ברבעון, ותוכנית נוספת של מיליארד דולר שהוגשה באוגוסט. היא גם חייבת 1.84 מיליארד דולר, מהם 633 מיליון למלווה בשליטת היו״ר שלה.

בעלי עניין ברבעון השני של 2026: 0 רכישות ו-0 מכירות, לפי דיווחי Form 4 שלהם.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 3 טענות
C13עובדהhigh confidence
Bitdeer raised $457M net through its at-the-market programme in Q2 2026 ($463.8M gross), and on 10 August 2026 filed an automatic shelf as a well-known seasoned issuer with a prospectus supplement for up to $1.0B of Class A shares through thirteen sales agents at commissions of up to 3%.
sourceBitdeer Q2 2026 results release (Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1)primaryBitdeer prospectus supplement, up to $1,000,000,000 of Class…primaryBitdeer Q2 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary
current state · 2026-08-10written 2026-09-19
C11עובדהhigh confidence
At 30 June 2026 Bitdeer held $496.3M of cash and restricted cash and $196.9M of digital assets and digital-asset receivables (of which $162.2M receivable from a related party), against borrowings of $1,841.7M: $1,182.5M long-term, $142.1M long-term from a related party, $491.0M current from a related party and $26.1M other current. Equity was $1,102.8M and property, plant and equipment $2,098.3M.
sourceBitdeer Q2 2026 results release (Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1)primary
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-09-19
C15עובדהhigh confidence
BIT Group (formerly Matrixport), whose co-founder and chairman is Bitdeer's controlling person, is the company's main non-convertible lender and custodian: a $400M assets-collateralised loan plus $300M of similar facilities fully drawn, a bitcoin-collateralised facility at 8.35%, a loan of up to 6,000 bitcoin at 3.00%, and custody of substantially all of its cryptocurrencies. At 30 June 2026 related-party borrowings were $633.1M, of which $491.0M current, and $162.2M of digital assets were receivable from the related party.
sourceBitdeer Form 20-F for the year ended 31 December 2025primaryBitdeer Q2 2026 results release (Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1)primary
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-09-19
05

המחיר, ואיפה אנחנו חלוקים על השוק

בקצרה. מלא. המחיר מניח שהחוזה היחיד של Bitdeer להשכרת שטח מוכן בחשמל לדייר של מרכז נתונים הוא הראשון מבין רבים, ושהוא ממומן בכסף שעוד לא הגיע. עד שיגיע, מניות חדשות ממשיכות לצמצם את החלק של כל בעל מניות.

מחיר המניה
$10.49
שער סגירה,
שווי החברה לכל דולר מכירות
5.5
החציון של המתחרות: 22.6

המבחן מתוארך. השלב הראשון בחוזה אמור להתחיל ב-31 בדצמבר 2026. לפני כן, תוצאות רבעון ספטמבר, שצפויות בסביבות 9 בנובמבר, יראו אם ערבות הבנק נחתמה, והאם את שאר הבנייה של Tydal, כ-500 מיליון דולר, מימנו בחוב פרויקטלי כפי שההנהלה הבטיחה או במניות.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 2 טענות
C08עובדהhigh confidence
On 4 August 2026 Bitdeer's subsidiary executed a 16-year colocation lease with Volta Tydal AS for 121 IT MW (133 gross) at Tydal, Norway: about $4.7B of base-term revenue, an average of about $202 per kW-month with 3% annual escalators and power passed through, an estimated 90% NOI margin, phases commencing 31 December 2026 and 31 March 2027, a no-fee tenant termination right at year 10, an 8-year extension option to about $8.0B, about $500M of remaining capex, and a credit backstop of about $1.3B in letters of credit from affiliates of J.P. Morgan and another bank that is 'anticipated' and 'subject to customary conditions', with Bitdeer entitled to terminate if Volta misses milestones on it.
sourceBitdeer announces $4.7B, 16-year lease for Tydal (Form 6-K,…primaryBitdeer signs colocation lease for Tydal, subject to…primaryBitdeer Q2 2026 results release (Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1)primary
forwardwritten 2026-09-19
C33טענת ההנהלהlow confidence
Management guides 2026 crypto-mining infrastructure capex to $200M to $280M (excluding rigs, GPUs, AI cloud and colocation), expects to fund Tydal's remaining roughly $500M of capex and 'much of' its remaining 2026 needs through project-level debt, states a preference for non-dilutive financing, and expects hashrate to keep growing at the recent monthly pace.
sourceBitdeer Q2 2026 results release (Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1)primaryBitdeer Q2 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary
against this
  • The quarter in which the preference for project debt was stated raised $457M through the ATM, and the $1B programme was filed the same day
  • No project debt had been announced by 19 September 2026, six weeks after the lease
  • The 2026 mining capex guide was revised upward, not held
forwardwritten 2026-09-19
ההימורספקולציה
אם ההימור מצליח
2.4×
מהשווי היום, במכפיל שצוין
אם ההימור נכשל
נשארים עד 45%
מהשווי בשוק היום: לכל היותר, כשהיתרה נספרת לפי שווי בספרים
איך לקרוא את המכפיל

לכל מגה-וואט מחובר, החברה כולה, כולל החוב, מוערכת בכ-2.78 מיליון דולר. רק ל-133 מתוך 1,752 המגה-וואט שלה יש דייר.

כדי שהמחיר יהיה מוצדק:

  1. המחיר שווה לכ-1.4 שנות רווח משכירות על כל מגה-וואט, אם כולם יושכרו כמו הראשון.
  2. הסבת מגה-וואט עולה כ-3.8 מיליון דולר לפני שמגיעה שכירות כלשהי.
  3. ל-600 הבאים יידרשו כ-2.3 מיליארד דולר, יותר מהמזומנים שלה ומכל תוכנית מכירת המניות יחד.
  4. לכן צריך להשכיר עוד מאות מגה-וואט, ומלווים, לא בעלי מניות, צריכים לממן אותם.

מול ההיסטוריה שלה. כשסופרים את החוב, שווי החברה לכל דולר מכירות גבוה מהרגיל; שווי המניות לבדן לא. ההבדל נוצר מהלוואות לצי המכונות, לא מאופטימיות.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 4 טענות
C36אומדןmedium confidence
At the 18 September 2026 close of $12.97 and 271.8M shares, Bitdeer's market value is about $3.53B; adding $1,841.7M of borrowings and subtracting $496.3M of cash gives an enterprise value of about $4.87B, which is $2.78M per online megawatt, about 1.4 years of Tydal-style rent profit on every one of the 1,752 megawatts when 133 have a tenant, and 39 times Q2 2026's adjusted EBITDA annualised.
sourceResearch pack for BTDR (FMP market tier, FINRA short…secondaryBitdeer Q2 2026 results release (Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1)primary
against this
  • The pack's own market value is $3.03B, struck on a share count about 38M below the filed June count, so the vendor's enterprise value of $4.49B is $380M lower than this one
  • Netting the $196.9M of digital assets and receivables would lower the enterprise value to about $4.67B
  • On the filed-competitor cohort Bitdeer is the cheapest of nine listed miners on enterprise value to sales, 5.5 times against a median of 22.6, so the market already prices it far below peers whatever the per-megawatt figure says
current state · 2026-09-18written 2026-09-19
C35אומדןmedium confidence
A leased gross megawatt at Tydal earns about $1.97M of rent profit a year ($2.4M per IT MW on 121 IT MW at the estimated 90% margin, $261M, over 133 gross MW), against about $0.31M per megawatt-year that Bitdeer's mining lines earned in Q2 2026 before depreciation ($90.3M of cash gross profit across self-mining, co-mining, cloud hash rate and hosting, annualised, over an average load of 1,162 MW), roughly 6.3 times.
sourceBitdeer announces $4.7B, 16-year lease for Tydal (Form 6-K,…primaryBitdeer Q2 2026 results release (Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1)primary
against this
  • The 90% margin is management's estimate and no Tydal phase has yet billed a dollar
  • Mining's Q2 figure was struck at a hashprice of $32.5, the year's low; at the $55.7 of September 2025 the same fleet would earn about 1.7 times as much per megawatt, cutting the ratio to under four
  • A leased megawatt needs about $3.8M of capex per gross megawatt before it earns anything, which the mining megawatt has already spent
current state · 2026-09-19written 2026-09-19
C46הסקהmedium confidence
Converting a megawatt to colocation at Tydal's cost takes about $3.8M of capex per gross megawatt before rent starts ($500M over 133 gross MW, management's $4.0M per IT MW), so converting the next 600 MW would need roughly $2.3B, more than the company's $496M of cash and its entire $1B share programme together, and management says US sites will cost closer to a typical build than Norway did.
derivedC08 (remaining capex and megawatts), C11 (cash), C13 (the programme), C42 and the Q1 call on US costs
against this
  • Management expects project-level debt to fund Tydal fully and to 'unlock significant incremental liquidity', so the equity share of a conversion could be a fraction of its cost if lenders behave as they did for TeraWulf and Cipher
  • A tenant can fund its own fit-out, and AI cloud contracts are structured for prepayments to cover about half of capex
  • Tydal was 'remarkably less' than a normal build because the site was already a mining brownfield, and Rockdale and Clarington are the same kind of site
current state · 2026-09-19written 2026-09-19
C33טענת ההנהלהlow confidence
Management guides 2026 crypto-mining infrastructure capex to $200M to $280M (excluding rigs, GPUs, AI cloud and colocation), expects to fund Tydal's remaining roughly $500M of capex and 'much of' its remaining 2026 needs through project-level debt, states a preference for non-dilutive financing, and expects hashrate to keep growing at the recent monthly pace.
sourceBitdeer Q2 2026 results release (Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1)primaryBitdeer Q2 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary
against this
  • The quarter in which the preference for project debt was stated raised $457M through the ATM, and the $1B programme was filed the same day
  • No project debt had been announced by 19 September 2026, six weeks after the lease
  • The 2026 mining capex guide was revised upward, not held
forwardwritten 2026-09-19
המכפיל מול המתחרים

המתחרות שהדוח השנתי של החברה עצמה מונה בשמן, וכל אחת מהן אומתה מול הדוח שלה. מדורגות לפי שווי החברה לכל דולר מכירות, מהזולה ליקרה:

סימולחברהשווי החברה לכל דולר מכירות
BTDRBitdeer Technologies Group5.5×
CLSKCleanSpark7.8×
MARAMarathon Digital Holdings8.8×
RIOTRiot Platforms13.0×
CORZCore Scientific18.9×
IRENIREN Limited26.3×
HUTHut 839.1×
CIFRCipher Mining47.5×
WULFTeraWulf66.9×

החציון של 8 האחרות הוא 22.6.‏ Bitdeer Technologies Group היא הזולה ביותר מבין 9.

נתוני המתחרות מגיעים מספק נתונים, ולכן עדיף להסתכל על טווח הערכים בקבוצה כולה ולא על השוואה בין שתי חברות בלבד.

הזולה בקבוצה ביחס למכירות בפער גדול. ההנחה היא של Bitdeer עצמה, בקבוצה שהתייקרה מאוד בגלל הסבות ל-AI.

מתחרות פרטיות או זרות שאין להן מחיר להשוואה: Bitmain Technologies,‏ MicroBT,‏ Canaan Inc. (CAN),‏ Volta,‏ Nscale,‏ Crusoe,‏ Lambda.

ההימור: מה הוא מניב אם יצליח

זה הימור על כורה ביטקוין שהופך למשכיר לחברות AI. אם חוזה נורווגיה ישלם בזמן ודייר שני ייקח גוש חשמל דומה, העסק עשוי להיות שווה בעוד שנתיים עד שלוש בערך פי שניים משווי החברה היום, לפי קריאה נדיבה של החוזים.

אם זה נכשל, מה שנשאר הוא כורה שחשוף למחיר הביטקוין, עם חובות גדולים שחלק גדול מהם חייבים למלווה של היו״ר, ושמשלם על המבנים שלו במניות חדשות.

הכנסות בעוד שנתיים עד שלושמגה-וואט ברוטו להשכרה שנדרשיםבמכפיל שצוין
1.54 מיליארד דולר (הזכייה הגדולה)כ-284 בשיעור שימור של 100%2.4×
2.38 מיליארד דולר (תחזית השוק)כ-666 בשיעור שימור של 100%3.7×
$2.53Bכ-734 בשיעור שימור של 100%3.9×

JLL צופה תוספת של 62 ג'יגה-וואט של קיבולת מושכרת במרכזי נתונים עד 2030; ב-2% מהתוספות של 2027 עד 2029 Bitdeer משכירה כ-740 מגה-וואט, לצד 7% מהכרייה אחרי ה-halving ו-5% ממכירות המכונות: כ-2.4 מיליארד דולר הכנסות. לפי התחזית הזו, 2.38 מיליארד דולר מניבים פי 3.7 משווי היום: הימור הוגן על תרחיש השוק.

כדי להניב פי 2 (הימור הוגן) היא צריכה כ-1.30 מיליארד דולר הכנסות (כ-177 מגה-וואט ברוטו מושכרים); כדי להניב פי 5 (הימור זול), כ-3.26 מיליארד דולר הכנסות (כ-1,100 מגה-וואט ברוטו מושכרים), באותו מכפיל.

השלבים שעליה לעבור

  • הושלם חוזה קולוקיישן ל-16 שנה עם Volta ל-133 מגה-וואט ברוטו ב-Tydal
  • הושלם אתר A102 של AI cloud, 9.5 מגה-וואט, חתום במלואו, הכנסות חוזרות של כ-86 מיליון דולר
  • בתהליך מכתבי האשראי של Tydal על 1.3 מיליארד דולר נחתמו יעד: 9 בנובמבר 2026
  • טרם התחיל יתרת ההשקעה ההונית של Tydal, 500 מיליון דולר, גויסה כחוב פרויקטלי, בלי מכירת מניות באותו רבעון יעד: דצמבר 2026
  • בתהליך שלב 1 ב-Tydal מתחיל יעד: 31 בדצמבר 2026
  • בתהליך הכרייה משאירה 40 סנט מכל דולר הכנסות לפני פחת שלושה רבעונים ברצף יעד: מרץ 2027
  • טרם התחיל שלב 2 ב-Tydal מתחיל יעד: 31 במרץ 2027
  • טרם התחיל חוזה קולוקיישן שני של 150 מגה-וואט ומעלה, בערבות בנק או ענקית ענן יעד: יוני 2027
  • נדחה מספר המניות גדל בפחות מ-5% בארבעה רבעונים יעד: אוגוסט 2027
הפירוט שמאחורי הדירוג
Rating
Fair
the big win's payoff against the 2× and 5× lines
Cheap bet at about
≈ $1.65
‎84% מתחת למחיר (שער סגירה, )
Market case
3.7×
a fair bet if the market forecast holds
הראיות (באנגלית) · 8 טענות
C08עובדהhigh confidence
On 4 August 2026 Bitdeer's subsidiary executed a 16-year colocation lease with Volta Tydal AS for 121 IT MW (133 gross) at Tydal, Norway: about $4.7B of base-term revenue, an average of about $202 per kW-month with 3% annual escalators and power passed through, an estimated 90% NOI margin, phases commencing 31 December 2026 and 31 March 2027, a no-fee tenant termination right at year 10, an 8-year extension option to about $8.0B, about $500M of remaining capex, and a credit backstop of about $1.3B in letters of credit from affiliates of J.P. Morgan and another bank that is 'anticipated' and 'subject to customary conditions', with Bitdeer entitled to terminate if Volta misses milestones on it.
sourceBitdeer announces $4.7B, 16-year lease for Tydal (Form 6-K,…primaryBitdeer signs colocation lease for Tydal, subject to…primaryBitdeer Q2 2026 results release (Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1)primary
forwardwritten 2026-09-19
C19עובדהhigh confidence
At 31 July 2026 Bitdeer had 1,752 MW of electrical capacity online (Rockdale 563, Jigmeling 500, Massillon 174, Gedu 100, Knoxville 86, Molde 84, Tydal 180 across three phases, Ethiopia 50, Wenatchee 13, Cyberjaya 2) and 1,228 MW in the pipeline (Clarington 570, Weathersfield 300, Rockdale 179, Fox Creek 101, Massillon 47, Malaysia 31.2), 2,980 MW in all; only Tydal's 133 gross MW carried a colocation tenant, and Rockdale's 563 MW was 'in active evaluation of AI transition'.
sourceBitdeer Q2 2026 results release (Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1)primary
current state · 2026-07-31written 2026-09-19
C25עובדהhigh confidence
CBRE's North America Data Center Trends for the first half of 2026 reports primary-market vacancy at a record low 1.4%, capacity under construction up 24.8% to a record 7,481.1 MW, commitments on 80.4% of under-construction capacity against 74.3% a year earlier, and under 1,500 MW of available capacity, about six months of demand.
sourceCBRE, North America Data Center Trends H1 2026primary
historical · H1 2026written 2026-09-19
C46הסקהmedium confidence
Converting a megawatt to colocation at Tydal's cost takes about $3.8M of capex per gross megawatt before rent starts ($500M over 133 gross MW, management's $4.0M per IT MW), so converting the next 600 MW would need roughly $2.3B, more than the company's $496M of cash and its entire $1B share programme together, and management says US sites will cost closer to a typical build than Norway did.
derivedC08 (remaining capex and megawatts), C11 (cash), C13 (the programme), C42 and the Q1 call on US costs
against this
  • Management expects project-level debt to fund Tydal fully and to 'unlock significant incremental liquidity', so the equity share of a conversion could be a fraction of its cost if lenders behave as they did for TeraWulf and Cipher
  • A tenant can fund its own fit-out, and AI cloud contracts are structured for prepayments to cover about half of capex
  • Tydal was 'remarkably less' than a normal build because the site was already a mining brownfield, and Rockdale and Clarington are the same kind of site
current state · 2026-09-19written 2026-09-19
C10הסקהmedium confidence
Until the letters of credit are issued, Tydal's rent rests on the promise of a company that was six months old when it signed and has no filed accounts, so the lease is a plan the share count is funding rather than a contracted asset the debt market has priced.
derivedC08 (backstop anticipated, Bitdeer's termination right), C09 (Volta's age and funding), C13 (the ATM funding Q2), C33 (project debt not yet raised)
against this
  • TeraWulf's and Cipher's Google backstops show that a hyperscaler or bank wrap does get executed after signing, and management chose Volta for 'the quality and enforceability of their anticipated credit support'
  • Bitdeer holds the termination right if the credit milestones are missed, so it is not locked into an uncredited tenant; the downside is a lost year, not a bad lease
  • Volta's $5B Azora programme and its $300M equity are real money behind the tenant even before a bank letter exists
current state · 2026-09-19written 2026-09-19
C11עובדהhigh confidence
At 30 June 2026 Bitdeer held $496.3M of cash and restricted cash and $196.9M of digital assets and digital-asset receivables (of which $162.2M receivable from a related party), against borrowings of $1,841.7M: $1,182.5M long-term, $142.1M long-term from a related party, $491.0M current from a related party and $26.1M other current. Equity was $1,102.8M and property, plant and equipment $2,098.3M.
sourceBitdeer Q2 2026 results release (Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1)primary
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-09-19
C15עובדהhigh confidence
BIT Group (formerly Matrixport), whose co-founder and chairman is Bitdeer's controlling person, is the company's main non-convertible lender and custodian: a $400M assets-collateralised loan plus $300M of similar facilities fully drawn, a bitcoin-collateralised facility at 8.35%, a loan of up to 6,000 bitcoin at 3.00%, and custody of substantially all of its cryptocurrencies. At 30 June 2026 related-party borrowings were $633.1M, of which $491.0M current, and $162.2M of digital assets were receivable from the related party.
sourceBitdeer Form 20-F for the year ended 31 December 2025primaryBitdeer Q2 2026 results release (Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1)primary
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-09-19
C12עובדהhigh confidence
271,782,245 ordinary shares were outstanding at 30 June 2026 (227,382,323 Class A and 44,399,922 Class V), against 235,552,084 at 31 December 2025, an increase of 15.4% in six months; the diluted weighted count for Q2 2026 was 246.3M against 194.0M a year earlier.
sourceBitdeer Q2 2026 results release (Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1)primaryBitdeer Form 20-F for the year ended 31 December 2025primary
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-09-19

איפה אנחנו חלוקים על השוק

השוק חושב

מאגר של שלושה ג'יגה-וואט חשמל, ש-Tydal מוכיח שאפשר להשכיר מחדש ל-AI: 12 מתוך 13 אנליסטים חיוביים.

אנחנו חושבים

החוזה אמיתי; הערך שלו למניה עדיין לא. עד שיהיו אשראי בנקאי וחוב פרויקטלי, בעלי המניות הם שמממנים אותו.

האנליסטים קוראים את הכותרת של 4.7 מיליארד דולר. הדוח מוסיף שהערבות רק צפויה, שהדייר יכול לעזוב בשנה העשירית, ושתוך שבוע הוגשה תוכנית מניות של מיליארד דולר. המסחר קורא את זה כמונו: החוזה הזיז את המניה ב-0.1%, והמכירה של המניות הורידה אותה ב-20%.

ראיות שסותרות את ההערכה שלנו: שני נושאי משרה קנו מניות באוגוסט בכ-9 דולר, והמתחרות מראות שאפשר להשיג חוזה בערבות.

מה אומרים האנליסטים
המלצות חיוביות
92%
מתוך 13, 1 בספטמבר
לפני ארבעה חודשים
83%
מתוך 12, 1 במאי
הראיות (באנגלית) · 6 טענות
C08עובדהhigh confidence
On 4 August 2026 Bitdeer's subsidiary executed a 16-year colocation lease with Volta Tydal AS for 121 IT MW (133 gross) at Tydal, Norway: about $4.7B of base-term revenue, an average of about $202 per kW-month with 3% annual escalators and power passed through, an estimated 90% NOI margin, phases commencing 31 December 2026 and 31 March 2027, a no-fee tenant termination right at year 10, an 8-year extension option to about $8.0B, about $500M of remaining capex, and a credit backstop of about $1.3B in letters of credit from affiliates of J.P. Morgan and another bank that is 'anticipated' and 'subject to customary conditions', with Bitdeer entitled to terminate if Volta misses milestones on it.
sourceBitdeer announces $4.7B, 16-year lease for Tydal (Form 6-K,…primaryBitdeer signs colocation lease for Tydal, subject to…primaryBitdeer Q2 2026 results release (Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1)primary
forwardwritten 2026-09-19
C10הסקהmedium confidence
Until the letters of credit are issued, Tydal's rent rests on the promise of a company that was six months old when it signed and has no filed accounts, so the lease is a plan the share count is funding rather than a contracted asset the debt market has priced.
derivedC08 (backstop anticipated, Bitdeer's termination right), C09 (Volta's age and funding), C13 (the ATM funding Q2), C33 (project debt not yet raised)
against this
  • TeraWulf's and Cipher's Google backstops show that a hyperscaler or bank wrap does get executed after signing, and management chose Volta for 'the quality and enforceability of their anticipated credit support'
  • Bitdeer holds the termination right if the credit milestones are missed, so it is not locked into an uncredited tenant; the downside is a lost year, not a bad lease
  • Volta's $5B Azora programme and its $300M equity are real money behind the tenant even before a bank letter exists
current state · 2026-09-19written 2026-09-19
C13עובדהhigh confidence
Bitdeer raised $457M net through its at-the-market programme in Q2 2026 ($463.8M gross), and on 10 August 2026 filed an automatic shelf as a well-known seasoned issuer with a prospectus supplement for up to $1.0B of Class A shares through thirteen sales agents at commissions of up to 3%.
sourceBitdeer Q2 2026 results release (Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1)primaryBitdeer prospectus supplement, up to $1,000,000,000 of Class…primaryBitdeer Q2 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary
current state · 2026-08-10written 2026-09-19
C37עובדהhigh confidence
Over the 252 sessions to 18 September 2026 the shares fell 23.4% while trailing sales per share rose 79.3%, so the multiple on sales fell 57.3% with diluted shares up 27.0%; the 52-week range was $6.92 to $27.80; the Tydal announcement moved the shares +0.1% on 4 August and the Q2 print −20.0% on 10 August; 55.6M shares (42.3% of the float) were sold short at 31 August; 12 of 13 rated analysts were positive on 1 September and the average price target was down 37% over the year.
sourceResearch pack for BTDR (FMP market tier, FINRA short…secondaryBitdeer Q2 2026 results release (Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1)primary
current state · 2026-09-18written 2026-09-19
C34עובדהhigh confidence
The chief financial officer and the chief strategy officer each bought 25,000 shares in the open market on 12 and 14 August 2026 at $9.04 and $8.84, discretionary purchases with no Rule 10b5-1 plan flagged; there were no open-market sales by insiders in the trailing 365 days, the remaining filings being grants.
sourceSEC Form 4 filings for Bitdeer insiders, read for the Rule…primary
historical · August 2026written 2026-09-19
C23עובדהhigh confidence
TeraWulf's Fluidstack HPC leases (168 MW, ten-year terms with two five-year renewals) carry a Google backstop under which Google either pays the termination fee or assumes the lease on a Fluidstack default, for which TeraWulf issued Google warrants over 73,580,000 shares at $0.01; Cipher carries a $544.5M asset representing Google's agreement to make Fluidstack's lease payments; Core Scientific has about 590 MW leased to CoreWeave across five sites, 395 MW of it billing at 30 June 2026, on 2.1 GW of gross utility power.
sourceTeraWulf Inc. Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026primaryCipher Digital Inc. Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June…primaryCore Scientific, Inc. Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30…primary
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-09-19
06

מה יכול להשתבש, ואיך נדע

הסיכונים

  • הערבות לא מגיעה. אם Volta לא תספק את ערבות הבנק על 1.3 מיליארד דולר, Bitdeer יכולה לסיים את החוזה, והדייר היחיד שלה ב-AI נעלם.
  • עוד מניות בדרך. תוכנית מניות של מיליארד דולר כבר טעונה, והסבת 600 מגה-וואט נוספים תעלה כ-2.3 מיליארד דולר.
  • היו״ר הוא המלווה. 633 מיליון דולר חייבים לקבוצה בשליטת היו״ר, שמחזיק גם ב-69.5% מהקולות.
  • הביטקוין עדיין משלם את החשבונות. הכרייה היא רוב ההכנסות וכבר מפסידה אחרי הפחת על המכונות. מחיר ביטקוין נמוך יותר מחמיר זאת.
  • פוליטיקה בנורווגיה. הפרלמנט בנורווגיה ביקש חוק שיאסור הקמת מרכזי נתונים חדשים לכריית קריפטו, ו-Bitdeer עדיין כורה שם, ב-Molde.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 9 טענות
C08עובדהhigh confidence
On 4 August 2026 Bitdeer's subsidiary executed a 16-year colocation lease with Volta Tydal AS for 121 IT MW (133 gross) at Tydal, Norway: about $4.7B of base-term revenue, an average of about $202 per kW-month with 3% annual escalators and power passed through, an estimated 90% NOI margin, phases commencing 31 December 2026 and 31 March 2027, a no-fee tenant termination right at year 10, an 8-year extension option to about $8.0B, about $500M of remaining capex, and a credit backstop of about $1.3B in letters of credit from affiliates of J.P. Morgan and another bank that is 'anticipated' and 'subject to customary conditions', with Bitdeer entitled to terminate if Volta misses milestones on it.
sourceBitdeer announces $4.7B, 16-year lease for Tydal (Form 6-K,…primaryBitdeer signs colocation lease for Tydal, subject to…primaryBitdeer Q2 2026 results release (Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1)primary
forwardwritten 2026-09-19
C10הסקהmedium confidence
Until the letters of credit are issued, Tydal's rent rests on the promise of a company that was six months old when it signed and has no filed accounts, so the lease is a plan the share count is funding rather than a contracted asset the debt market has priced.
derivedC08 (backstop anticipated, Bitdeer's termination right), C09 (Volta's age and funding), C13 (the ATM funding Q2), C33 (project debt not yet raised)
against this
  • TeraWulf's and Cipher's Google backstops show that a hyperscaler or bank wrap does get executed after signing, and management chose Volta for 'the quality and enforceability of their anticipated credit support'
  • Bitdeer holds the termination right if the credit milestones are missed, so it is not locked into an uncredited tenant; the downside is a lost year, not a bad lease
  • Volta's $5B Azora programme and its $300M equity are real money behind the tenant even before a bank letter exists
current state · 2026-09-19written 2026-09-19
C13עובדהhigh confidence
Bitdeer raised $457M net through its at-the-market programme in Q2 2026 ($463.8M gross), and on 10 August 2026 filed an automatic shelf as a well-known seasoned issuer with a prospectus supplement for up to $1.0B of Class A shares through thirteen sales agents at commissions of up to 3%.
sourceBitdeer Q2 2026 results release (Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1)primaryBitdeer prospectus supplement, up to $1,000,000,000 of Class…primaryBitdeer Q2 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary
current state · 2026-08-10written 2026-09-19
C46הסקהmedium confidence
Converting a megawatt to colocation at Tydal's cost takes about $3.8M of capex per gross megawatt before rent starts ($500M over 133 gross MW, management's $4.0M per IT MW), so converting the next 600 MW would need roughly $2.3B, more than the company's $496M of cash and its entire $1B share programme together, and management says US sites will cost closer to a typical build than Norway did.
derivedC08 (remaining capex and megawatts), C11 (cash), C13 (the programme), C42 and the Q1 call on US costs
against this
  • Management expects project-level debt to fund Tydal fully and to 'unlock significant incremental liquidity', so the equity share of a conversion could be a fraction of its cost if lenders behave as they did for TeraWulf and Cipher
  • A tenant can fund its own fit-out, and AI cloud contracts are structured for prepayments to cover about half of capex
  • Tydal was 'remarkably less' than a normal build because the site was already a mining brownfield, and Rockdale and Clarington are the same kind of site
current state · 2026-09-19written 2026-09-19
C15עובדהhigh confidence
BIT Group (formerly Matrixport), whose co-founder and chairman is Bitdeer's controlling person, is the company's main non-convertible lender and custodian: a $400M assets-collateralised loan plus $300M of similar facilities fully drawn, a bitcoin-collateralised facility at 8.35%, a loan of up to 6,000 bitcoin at 3.00%, and custody of substantially all of its cryptocurrencies. At 30 June 2026 related-party borrowings were $633.1M, of which $491.0M current, and $162.2M of digital assets were receivable from the related party.
sourceBitdeer Form 20-F for the year ended 31 December 2025primaryBitdeer Q2 2026 results release (Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1)primary
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-09-19
C16עובדהhigh confidence
Jihan Wu holds all 44,399,922 Class V shares, each carrying ten votes, plus 2,946,206 Class A shares: 19.5% of shares and 69.5% of voting power at 21 April 2026. Tether's investment entities, controlled by Giancarlo Devasini, held 37,729,510 Class A shares, 19.7% of the class, at 12 June 2026.
sourceBitdeer Form 20-F for the year ended 31 December 2025primarySchedule 13D/A (Amendment No. 13) by Tether Global…primary
current state · 2026-06-12written 2026-09-19
C01עובדהhigh confidence
Bitdeer mines bitcoin for its own account on its own SEALMINER rigs in datacentres it operates; in Q2 2026 revenue of $228.8M was self-mining $168.4M, co-mining $25.0M, AI cloud $14.0M, cloud hash rate $3.7M, general and membership hosting $15.6M, and rig sales $0.4M. The company reports one operating segment.
sourceBitdeer Q2 2026 results release (Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1)primaryBitdeer Form 20-F for the year ended 31 December 2025primary
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-09-19
C03אומדןhigh confidence
In Q2 2026 self-mining kept 45.8 cents of each revenue dollar before depreciation ($168.4M of revenue less $84.7M of electricity and $6.5M of other costs, $77.2M) and lost 1.6 cents after $79.8M of depreciation and stock compensation; the company's gross margin was −3.7% and the operating loss $101.7M.
sourceBitdeer Q2 2026 results release (Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1)primary
against this
  • Q1 2026 was worse, a company-wide gross loss of $39.0M, and Q2's improvement came partly from a 15% sequential fall in seasonal power cost that management does not present as permanent
  • Depreciation on rigs now written off over two to three years is a real replacement cost for a fleet that must be renewed to hold hashrate share, so the pre-depreciation margin overstates what the line earns over a cycle
  • The 'other costs' line excludes the G&A and R&D that support mining, so the 45.8% is a contribution margin rather than a segment profit
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-09-19
C22עובדהhigh confidence
On 12 March 2026 the Norwegian parliament asked the government to return with a bill banning the establishment of data centres for cryptocurrency mining, having in 2024 asked it to investigate such a ban; Bitdeer's Norwegian sites are Molde (84 MW, mining) and Tydal (180 MW, converting to colocation).
sourceStortinget: Representantforslag om konsesjonsordning for…primaryStortinget vedtak 718 (2023-2024): utrede et forbud mot…primaryBitdeer Q2 2026 results release (Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1)primary
current state · 2026-03-12written 2026-09-19
שאלות פתוחות
  • האם 202 דולר לקילוואט בחודש הוא מחיר שכירות בראש השוק, כפי שההנהלה אומרת. אף מתחרה לא מפרסמת את המחיר שלה.
  • מי הלקוחות של ה-GPU במלזיה, ולכמה זמן הם חתמו.
  • האם אתר Clarington, 570 מגה-וואט, ישרוד תביעה של שכן, שנמצאת עכשיו בשלב גילוי מסמכים.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 4 טענות
C42טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
On the Q2 call management said Volta was chosen for speed, commercial terms and credit; that 47 MW at Tydal was retained for Bitdeer's own use with 'a lot of interest' from Volta and others; that Malaysia is the near-term AI cloud focus and Norway next; that GPU customers now sign five-year contracts; and, on the Q1 call, that Tydal's pricing was 'near the top of the market of what we've seen announced'.
sourceBitdeer Q2 2026 earnings call transcriptprimaryBitdeer Q1 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary
against this
  • Tydal's pricing cannot be checked against any disclosed rival rate, so 'near the top of the market' is unverifiable from outside
  • The lease management called imminent in March took until August to become effective, and the 47 MW 'interest' had produced no contract six weeks after the call
  • A201's contracts were expected 'within a month' in the July update and were still in late negotiations in the August one
forwardwritten 2026-09-19
C29עובדהhigh confidence
Bitdeer's AI cloud line: revenue of $14.0M in Q2 2026 at a gross loss of $2.3M (cost of revenue $16.3M); annual recurring revenue grew from about $21M at 28 February 2026 to about $86M at 31 August; the 9.5 MW A102 facility is 100% contracted under long-term commitments with revenue expected from Q1 2027; A201 (21.7 IT MW, handover Q1 2027) is in late negotiations with 133 GB300 racks procured; a 10-year data-centre services agreement adds 65.1 MW at A202; the pipeline is 206.5 IT MW.
sourceBitdeer Q2 2026 results release (Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1)primaryBitdeer August 2026 production and operations update (Form…primaryBitdeer February 2026 production and operations update, the…primary
current state · 2026-08-31written 2026-09-19
C30טענת ההנהלהlow confidence
Management says the A102 contracts represent more than $800M of total expected revenue, that AI cloud contracts are structured so customer prepayments cover about 50% of the associated capex, that customers now sign for five years, and that GPU pricing may rise further in the near term.
sourceBitdeer August 2026 production and operations update (Form…primaryBitdeer July 2026 production and operations update (Form…primaryBitdeer Q2 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary
against this
  • The AI cloud line lost money at the gross level in Q2 2026 on $14.0M of revenue, before any overhead
  • The counterparties are unnamed in every filing and the contract term is not disclosed, so $800M cannot be checked against a per-megawatt-year rate
  • The same August update says A201's contracts were expected 'within a month' in the July update and are still 'in late negotiations' six weeks later
forwardwritten 2026-09-19
C40עובדהhigh confidence
Clarington, Ohio (570 MW under contract with a local utility) is the subject of a complaint filed in February 2026 by American Heavy Plate Solutions against the port authority landlord and Bitdeer subsidiaries over leasehold rights; the motion to dismiss was denied and the case is in discovery, and the site's timing is 'to be updated'.
sourceBitdeer Form 20-F for the year ended 31 December 2025primaryBitdeer Q2 2026 earnings call transcriptprimaryBitdeer Q2 2026 results release (Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1)primary
current state · 2026-08-10written 2026-09-19

מה ישנה את ההערכה שלנו

  1. לא אטרקטיבית→ניטרליתTydal ממומן בחוב פרויקטלי ולא בידי בעלי המניות

    נדרשים כל אלה:

    • ○ערבות הבנק של Tydal על 1.3 מיליארד דולר נחתמת והשלב הראשון מתחיל, כך שהשכירות כבר לא נשענת על הבטחה של חברה צעירה.במעקב שוטף
    • ○את שאר Tydal מממנים בחוב פרויקטלי, בלי מניות חדשות באותו רבעון, ומספר המניות גדל בפחות מ-5% בשנה.ייבדק בדוח הבא, עד 9 בנובמבר
  2. לא אטרקטיבית→אטרקטיביתדייר שני מוכיח שאפשר להשכיר את המאגר מחדש

    נדרשים כל אלה:

    • ○חוזה AI שני של 150 מגה-וואט ומעלה, בערבות בנק או ענקית ענן.במעקב שוטף
    • ○הכרייה משאירה לפחות 40 סנט מכל דולר הכנסות אחרי חשמל שלושה רבעונים ברצף.ייבדק בדוח הבא, עד 9 בנובמבר

מה בהמשך

  • 9 בנובמבר 2026 תוצאות הרבעון השלישי של 2026: האם מכתבי האשראי של Tydal נחתמו וההשקעה ההונית ממומנת בחוב, או שמספר המניות עלה שוב במסגרת התוכנית של מיליארד דולר.
כל האירועים הצפויים
  • 9 בנובמבר 2026 תוצאות הרבעון השלישי של 2026: האם מכתבי האשראי של Tydal נחתמו וההשקעה ההונית ממומנת בחוב, או שמספר המניות עלה שוב במסגרת התוכנית של מיליארד דולר.
  • 10 בדצמבר 2026 דוח ERCOT על הביקורת של המושל במרכזי הנתונים: האם האישורים לחיבור צרכני חשמל גדולים בטקסס מתחדשים, מה שיקבע מתי ההרחבה המתוכננת של Rockdale מעבר ל-563 מגה-וואט תוכל להתחבר.
  • 31 בדצמבר 2026 תחילת השכירות בשלב 1 ב-Tydal: האם Volta תיקח את השלב הראשון בזמן, כשהתמיכה באשראי במקומה, והחוזה יהפוך לשכירות.
  • 6 בדצמבר 2027 אופציית פדיון (put) של המחזיקים באג״ח 5.25% לשנת 2029: האם 265 מיליון דולר של אג״ח ימומנו מחדש, יומרו או ישולמו במזומן, מבחן למימון בלי עוד מניות.
מה קרה מאז
נכתבה
19 בספטמבר
המחיר בעת כתיבת התזה
$12.97
18 בספטמבר
שער סגירה אחרון
$10.49
שער סגירה, · ‎-19.1% מאז
  • 19 באוקטוברחדשותהעדכון של Bitdeer לספטמבר מראה תפוקת כרייה גבוהה יותר וצבר הזמנות גדול יותר ב-AI. ההערכה לא השתנתהעדכון הייצור והפעילות של Bitdeer לספטמבר 2026.
  • 9 באוקטוברחדשותBitdeer מוסיפה רכישה חוזרת של 100 מיליון דולר ואתר AI בהספק 67MW במלזיה, בלי לקוח. ההערכה לא השתנתהBitdeer אישרה רכישה חוזרת של מניות ב-100 מיליון דולר וחתמה על הסכם ל-10 שנים לקמפוס ענן AI A901 בהספק 67MW במלזיה.
  • 5 באוקטוברבדיקת התזהההימור מציין עכשיו על מה הוא נשעןהבעלים ביקש שכל הימור יציין את המגמה המקרו-כלכלית שעומדת מאחוריו, אחרי שבהימור על BWXT חסר הטיעון של מנכ״ל החברה בעד אנרגיה גרעינית על פני גז.
  • 4 באוקטוברבדיקת התזהרשימת הבדיקות של הבעלים: מקורות ההכנסה, עלות הצמיחה, ההנהלה, אירועים צפוייםרשימת הבדיקות של הבעלים הראתה שהשיטה שותקת בשאלות מי מנהל את החברה, כמה עולה הצמיחה, מאיפה מגיע הכסף ואילו אירועים צפויים בתאריכים ידועים. בסבב הזה מילאנו את ארבעת הנושאים מתוך דוח ה-20-F והדוחות האחרים.
  • 30 בספטמברחדשותBitdeer מדווחת שיותר מ-70% מאתר AI A201 שלה במלזיה כבר הובטחו ללקוחות. ההערכה לא השתנתההתחייבויות רכישה של לקוחות לקיבולת ה-AI של Bitdeer באתר A201 במלזיה, ודוח ה-6-K שהוגש איתן.
  • 19 בספטמברהתזה נכתבהלא אטרקטיבית, ביטחון בינונינכתבה שישה שבועות אחרי שנחתם חוזה ה-AI הראשון, ואחרי תוצאות הרבעון שהסתיים ביוני ומכירת מניות שהורידו את המניה ב-20%.

נבדקה גם 5 פעמים, ללא ממצא חדש שמצריך פעולה.

מקורות 40

Where this came from

Sources - 40

Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.

  1. S01primarycompany filing2026-08-10
    Bitdeer Q2 2026 results release (Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1)
    the business-line revenue and cost table for Q2 2026 and Q2 2025, the power infrastructure table as of 31 July 2026, the MD&A, the balance sheet with the share count, the income statement, the cash-flow statement with the related-party bitcoin flows, the non-GAAP reconciliation, and the note on the transition from IFRS to US GAAP
    backsC01C03C04C08C11C12C13C15C17C19C20C21C22C28C29C31C32C33C35C36C37C39C40C43C55C56C57C61
  2. S02primarytranscript2026-08-10
    Bitdeer Q2 2026 earnings call transcript
    management's Tydal walk-through, the $457M ATM raise and the $1B programme, the project-debt preference, the 2026 capex guide, and eight analysts' questions on Volta's credit backstop, the 47 MW retained, the Knoxville redesign, the Texas pause, SEALMINER allocation and GPU contract terms; the questions are a separate origin from the answers
    Our remaining capital expenditure is approximately $500 million, which we believe is significantly more capital efficient than a typical greenfield data center build. We expect to raise project level financing to fully fund our remaining Tydal capital needs and to provide significant additional capital.
    backsC13C21C30C33C40C42C43
  3. S03primarycompany filing2026-04-30
    Bitdeer Form 20-F for the year ended 31 December 2025
    Item 4 business lines and competition (classes only), the 2025 revenue by line, the datacentre table at 31 March 2026, the convertible notes and their conversion rates, the BIT Group related-party facilities and custody, the ownership table with the dual-class voting, the Bhutan land leases and geographic revenue, the depreciation policy change, the Clarington complaint, the foundry dependence, the 2025 derivative gain and the headcount
    backsC01C02C12C14C15C16C17C31C40C41C43C51C55C56C57C58C59C60C61
  4. S04primarycompany filing2026-08-05
    Bitdeer announces $4.7B, 16-year lease for Tydal (Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1)
    every term of the Tydal lease: rate, escalator, NOI margin, phases, the year-10 termination right, the extension, the remaining capex, and the 'anticipated' letter-of-credit backstop with Bitdeer's termination right
    backsC08C28C35C55
  5. S05primarycompany filing2026-06-29
    Bitdeer signs colocation lease for Tydal, subject to conditions precedent (Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1)
    that the lease was executed but not effective, subject to conditions 'beyond Bitdeer's control, including the completion of certain external customer and supplier arrangements by the counterparty'
    backsC08
  6. S06primarycompany filing2026-09-16
    Bitdeer August 2026 production and operations update (Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1)
    August hashrate and production, 61 bitcoin held, AI cloud ARR and GPU count, the A102 sell-out and $800M expected revenue with the prepayment structure, A201's 133 racks, the A202 65.1 MW agreement, the 206.5 MW pipeline table, the Bhutan letter of intent, and the move to quarterly infrastructure updates
    backsC05C07C17C29C30
  7. S07primarycompany filing2026-08-26
    Bitdeer July 2026 production and operations update (Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1)
    July hashrate and production; A102 fully committed; A201 contracts expected 'within a month'; the expectation that AI cloud pricing rises
    backsC30
  8. S08primarycompany filing2026-07-21
    Bitdeer June 2026 production and operations update (Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1)
    June hashrate; the Sparks, Nevada factory groundbreaking; the A201 10-year lease; Tydal executed subject to conditions
    read, but no claim rests on it
  9. S09primarycompany filing2026-03-16
    Bitdeer February 2026 production and operations update, the release beside the annual report (Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1)
    the February infrastructure table with the ready dates later moved (Knoxville Q4 2026/Q1 2027, Wenatchee Q4 2026, Alberta Q2 2027, Massillon Q2 2026), AI cloud ARR of about $21M at 64% utilisation, the $375M February notes, and the statement that a significant lease was expected 'very soon'
    backsC20C29
  10. S10primarycompany filing2026-08-10
    Bitdeer prospectus supplement, up to $1,000,000,000 of Class A ordinary shares (Form 424B5)
    the size of the new at-the-market programme, the thirteen sales agents, the up-to-3% commission and the $10.88 reference price of 7 August 2026
    backsC13
  11. S11primarycompany filing2026-08-03
    Bitdeer change in certifying accountant (Form 6-K, with Exhibit 16.1)
    the dismissal of MaloneBailey and appointment of Deloitte Singapore, with no disagreements or reportable events
    backsC44
  12. S12primarycompany filing2026-09-02
    Bitdeer acquires 200 acres near Rockdale (Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1)
    the $100M cash purchase, Milam County's 563 MW scaling to 742 MW, and the claim that outright ownership is what financing an AI datacentre requires
    read, but no claim rests on it
  13. S13primarycompany filing2026-06-30
    Schedule 13D/A (Amendment No. 13) by Tether Global Investments Fund and Giancarlo Devasini Tether
    37,729,510 Class A shares, 19.7% of the class on the December 2025 count, transferred within the Tether group on 12 June 2026
    backsC16
  14. S14primarycompany filing2026-08-17
    SEC Form 4 filings for Bitdeer insiders, read for the Rule 10b5-1 flag via scripts/insider_fetch.py
    two discretionary open-market purchases by the CFO and the CSO in August 2026, no sales, and the grants of 1 July and 1 September
    backsC34
  15. S15primarytranscript2026-05-14
    Bitdeer Q1 2026 earnings call transcript
    Tydal 'near the top of the market' on pricing, the 40% H100 rate increase, TSMC named as the foundry, Norway's conversion cost 'remarkably less' than normal and US sites nearer typical, and the Clarington litigation's expected schedule impact
    I don't think we're going to give you satisfaction on the pricing other than we think it's at the -- near the top of the market of what we've seen announced.
    backsC42C43
  16. S16secondaryvendor data2026-09-19
    Research pack for BTDR (FMP market tier, FINRA short interest, IBKR bars), frozen beside this thesis
    the closing price, the price-move decomposition, the 52-week range, the rating series, price-target drift, consensus estimates, the measured news reactions, FINRA short interest, and the filed-competitor cohort's multiples
    backsC36C37
  17. S17primaryindustry data2026-09-19
    blockchain.com charts API: hash-rate, difficulty and miners-revenue, three-year series blockchain.com
    network hashrate and total miner revenue per day, from which hashprice per petahash-day was computed as revenue over hashrate: $43.48 now, $55.69 a year ago, $32.51 at 30 June 2026
    hash-rate 2026-09-18: 963.0 EH/s; 2025-09-18: 1,087.6 EH/s; 2026-06-30: 991.6 EH/s. miners-revenue 2026-09-18: $41,873,221 per day; 2025-09-18: $60,565,165; 2026-06-30: $32,232,726
    backsC06C07
  18. S18primarycompany filing2026-08-05
    TeraWulf Inc. Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 WULF
    the Fluidstack HPC leases (168 MW, ten years plus renewals), the Google backstop mechanics and the warrants over 73,580,000 shares paid for it, the realised power price of $0.049 per kWh and the cost to mine one bitcoin
    backsC23
  19. S19primarycompany filing2026-08-04
    Cipher Digital Inc. Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 CIFR
    the $544.5M asset representing Google's agreement to make Fluidstack's lease payments, and the ERCOT batch-process risk factor
    backsC23
  20. S20primarycompany filing2026-07-28
    Core Scientific, Inc. Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 CORZ
    about 590 MW leased to CoreWeave, 395 MW billing, 2.1 GW of gross utility power, and the single-customer concentration
    backsC23
  21. S21primarycompany filing2026-08-27
    IREN Ltd Form 10-K for the year ended 30 June 2026 IREN
    the $9.7B Microsoft and $3.4B NVIDIA contracts, the $3.6B investment-grade GPU financing, the named AI-cloud competitors, and the delivery delays on Horizon
    backsC24
  22. S22primaryregulator2026-06-18
    ERCOT news release: PUCT approves ERCOT's Batch Zero process for connecting large electricity users ERCOT
    the threshold, the size and composition of the queue and the original August notification timing
    groups qualified large projects that are 75 megawatts (MW) and greater into a batch. ERCOT is tracking more than 438,000 MW of large load requests, nearly 89 percent from data centers alone. ERCOT expects to notify Batch Zero applicants of their project classification in August 2026.
    backsC21
  23. S23secondarynews2026-09-10
    Utility Dive: ERCOT aims to complete Texas governor's data center audit by December Utility Dive
    the governor's 3 August 2026 audit letter, the suspension of classifications and ERCOT's 10 December target, reported from ERCOT's own presentation to the commission
    about 300 data centers 75 MW or larger navigating the Batch Zero process. Our goal is to head toward a December 10 filing. a necessary step for its Batch Zero study process to continue and for grid interconnections of the large loads to resume
    backsC21
  24. S24primaryregulator2026-03-12
    Stortinget: Representantforslag om konsesjonsordning for etablering av datasentre, vedtatt 12.03.2026 (Innst. 140 S (2025-2026)) Stortinget
    the parliament's 12 March 2026 request for a bill banning new cryptocurrency data centres, alongside its rejection of a national licensing regime
    komme tilbake til Stortinget med et forslag om forbud mot etablering av datasentre for kryptovaluta
    backsC22
  25. S25primaryregulator2024-06-01
    Stortinget vedtak 718 (2023-2024): utrede et forbud mot utvinning av kryptovaluta i Norge Stortinget
    the earlier resolution asking the government to investigate a ban on cryptocurrency mining
    Stortinget ber regjeringen utrede et forbud mot utvinning av kryptovaluta i Norge og komme tilbake til Stortinget senest i forbindelse med fremleggelsen av statsbudsjettet for 2025.
    backsC22
  26. S26primaryindustry data2026-08-01
    CBRE, North America Data Center Trends H1 2026 CBRE
    the vacancy, construction, pre-leasing and availability figures behind the prize and the driver; rental rates given only as percentage increases
    primary market vacancy fell to a record low of 1.4% in H1 from 1.6% in H1 2025. Total under-construction capacity across primary markets increased by 24.8% in H1 to a record high of 7,481.1 MW. Preleasing activity accelerated with commitments made on 80.4% of all under-construction capacity, compared with 74.3% a year ago. Less than 1,500 MW of future capacity across all primary markets remains available, representing approximately six months of demand
    backsC25
  27. S27primaryindustry data2026-04-07
    Synergy Research Group: hyperscale operators to account for 67% of all data center capacity by 2031 Synergy Research Group
    the own-built share behind customer_can_build and the prize's share factor
    Almost 60% of that hyperscale capacity is now in own-built, owned data centers with the balance being in leased facilities.
    backsC26
  28. S28primarygovernment data2026-05-19
    U.S. Energy Information Administration, Today in Energy: data center server energy use EIA
    a government measure of the load the driver adds
    Across all cases, servers alone accounted for an estimated 7% of commercial sector electricity consumption in 2025.
    backsC27
  29. S29primaryindustry data2026-09-19
    NVIDIA GB300 NVL72 product page NVIDIA
    what the rack a converted hall must house physically is
    72 NVIDIA Blackwell Ultra GPUs, 36 NVIDIA Grace CPUs; a fully liquid-cooled, rack-scale architecture
    backsC28
  30. S30secondarycompany release2026-08-04
    Volta emerges from stealth with $10 billion AI lab partnership and $5 billion AI infrastructure program (Volta press release, syndicated copy on Yahoo Finance) Volta
    the tenant's own account of itself; it carries no mention of letters of credit or J.P. Morgan. Read on Yahoo Finance because businesswire.com returned 403
    $10 billion strategic partnership with an AI Lab to develop an AI factory in Europe alongside Bitdeer; $5 billion of financing for the next generation of AI factories developed by the company; Seed Round and a Series A valuing Volta at $2.4 billion, led by Azora, Andreessen Horowitz, Altimeter and NVIDIA; Located in Norway, the project will comprise a 133 MW deployment powered by NVIDIA Vera Rubin systems
    backsC09
  31. S31tertiarynews2026-08-05
    The Register: Cloud startup Volta claims $10B AI lab deal for Norway bit barn The Register
    the press identification of the AI lab as Anthropic, unconfirmed by either party, and the clarification that the $10B is a compute commitment over the partnership's life rather than a payment
    Volta said it had raised about $300 million across its seed and Series A rounds, reaching a valuation of $2.4 billion. This has been identified elsewhere as model developer giant Anthropic, which is said to be seeking access to Volta's compute resources over a six-year period. Anthropic declined to comment.
    backsC09
  32. S32primarycompany filing2026-04-15
    Canaan Inc. Form 20-F for the year ended 31 December 2025 CAN
    a listed ASIC maker's competition section: classes, no names, no market share
    backsC45C53C55
  33. S33primarycompany filing2026-08-06
    MARA Holdings, Inc. Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 MARA
    A rival's own filed hashrate, efficiency, energy capacity and cost per petahash-day at the same 30 June 2026 date as Bitdeer's - the comparison the self-mining business needed, from outside Bitdeer.
    with an energized hashrate of approximately 70.3 exahashes per second (“EH/s”) ... Energized hashrate (1) | 70.3 | 57.4 | Miner efficiency (in joules per terahash) (2) | 17.3 | 18.3 | Total energy capacity (in GW) (3) | 1.9 | 1.7 ... our total hashrate increased 22% to 70.3 EH/s ... Cost per Petahash per day improved approximately 6%, from $29.4 to $27.7, compared to the prior year period.
    backsC47
  34. S34primaryindustry data2026-01-05
    JLL - 2026 Global Data Center Outlook (report PDF) JLL
    a broker's forecast of the leased (colocation and build-to-suit) capacity to be added worldwide in 2026-2030 against hyperscalers' own builds; downloaded through ir_fetch's client and read with pdftotext
    The leased data center segment, which includes colocation and build-to-suit facilities, is expected to add 62 GW between 2026 and 2030 to meet sustained cloud demand, increasing AI workloads and shifting enterprise requirements. … hyperscalers could construct 41 GW of owner-occupied capacity between 2026 and 2030, doubling the size of this segment to 70 GW.
    backsC48C55
  35. S35primaryindustry data2026-08-11
    JLL news release - Data center demand exceeds expectations as H1 2026 absorption hits record 25 GW (North America Data Center Report, Midyear 2026) JLL
    North American absorption, construction and pre-commitment, the financing spread a tenant without investment-grade credit pays, and the broker's vacancy outlook to 2028; read through ir_fetch. Same firm as S34, so one origin
    North America data center demand reached an all-time high in the first half of 2026 with 25 GW of absorption, double the level from a year ago and five times that of two years prior. … North America now has 66 GW under construction, 95% of which is pre-committed. … non-credit tenant deals are evaluated ad hoc with spreads approximately 200-300 basis points wider. … we're likely to see vacancy remain near zero through 2028.
    backsC49C55
  36. S36primarycompany filing2026-07-28
    Core Scientific, Inc. Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 CORZ
    590 MW leased to CoreWeave with about 395 MW billing, the 27 July 2026 leases of 377 MW to AMD and 152 MW to a neocloud, and AMD's right to reserve up to 1,925 MW more through 28 December 2028
    backsC50C55
  37. S37primarycompany filing2026-08-10
    Galaxy Digital Inc. Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 GLXY
    the Helios campus: 133 MW of critical IT load on about 200 MW of gross power, plus 393 MW more on 600 MW of gross power, leased to CoreWeave on 15-year terms
    backsC50C55
  38. S38secondaryindustry data2026-03-02
    CoinShares Bitcoin Mining Report - Q1 2026 CoinShares
    an asset manager's network hashrate forecast, its estimate of listed miners' AI revenue share and the cost per megawatt of each kind of site; the page is undated and the latest date in its text is 2 March 2026; read through ir_fetch
    Using our piecewise prediction model that we have detailed in the past , we now expect the hashrate to achieve 1.8 zetahash by the end of 2026, and 2 zetahash by end-March 2027, one month later than previously predicted. … listed miners could derive as much as 70% of their revenues from AI by the end of this year, up from roughly 30% today. … The cost differential between BTC mining infrastructure (~$700K-1M/MW) and AI infrastructure (~$8M-15M/MW) is wide
    backsC52
  39. S39primaryindustry data2026-10-01
    blockchain.com charts API: market-price, transaction-fees and hash-rate, 60-day series blockchain.com
    the bitcoin price, the fees miners earned per day and the network hashrate at the end of September 2026, read through ir_fetch from the same charts API as S17 (market-price and hash-rate series at the same host)
    market-price 2026-10-01: $83,570.96; 2026-09-28: $84,443.93. transaction-fees 2026-09-27: 2.13 BTC; 2026-09-28: 3.43; 2026-09-29: 3.09; 2026-09-30: 3.80. hash-rate 2026-09-27: 963,510,928 TH/s; 2026-09-30: 930,513,978 TH/s
    backsC51C55
  40. S40primarycompany filing2026-09-29
    Bitdeer Form 6-K of 29 September 2026: interim financial statements (Exhibit 99.1) and Recent Developments (Exhibit 99.2) BTDR
    what changed since the thesis date: the Rockdale land purchase restated as 742 MW in Milam County and about 3.0 GW in all, A102 sold out on five-year commitments, Tydal still the only colocation lease and its credit support still 'anticipated', and $8.4M sold under the new $1B share programme by 29 September
    backsC54C55
נבנה מתוך content/BTDR/thesis.json · התזה נבדקה לאחרונה ב-1 באוקטובר 2026. העמוד מסביר את החברה; הוא לא אומר כמה לשלם, מתי לקנות או באיזה היקף. התרגום לעברית נעשה בבינה מלאכותית, והנוסח האנגלי הוא הקובע.