Element Solutions
היא מייצרת את הכימיקלים שמפעלי אלקטרוניקה צורכים תוך כדי הייצור: אמבטיות ציפוי שמגדלות את חיווט הנחושת בתוך לוחות ושבבים, ומשחות הלחמה שמחברות ביניהם.
הציון שלנוניטרלית ביטחון בינוני
הציונים
ציונים · 1-4
צמיחה3/4 ↑
הצמיחה ללא רכישות וללא מחיר המתכות היא 15% והיא מאיצה, אבל מתוך 56 נקודות הצמיחה המדווחות 23 נקנו ו-17 הגיעו ממחיר המתכות.
איכות העסק3/4 →
חסם ההסמכה מגובה בדוח של מתחרה, אבל טרם נבחן מול Qnity שהפכה לעצמאית וממוקדת, ומול חיבור שבבים ללא הלחמה.
איתנות פיננסית3/4 ↑
המינוף עומד על 2.9 ויורד ל-2.5 לפי תחזית החברה, אין פירעונות לפני 2028, והמזומנים מכסים אותם. את האג״ח של 2028 היא תמחזר בריבית גבוהה בהרבה מ-3.875%.
יכולת ביצוע3/4 →
שבע פעמים מעל התחזיות בשמונה רבעונים, התחזית הועלתה ושתי הרכישות מקדימות את התוכנית. מנגד, בעלי המניות שלה אילצו אותה לבטל מיזוג שכבר נחתם.
ערך לבעלי המניות3/4 →
מספר המניות כמעט לא השתנה, העסקאות שולמו במזומן ואין אג״ח להמרה. אף רכישה חוזרת לא קיזזה הנפקות, ומחירי הרכישות עדיין לא הוכחו.
פוטנציאל2/4 ↑
יש פוטנציאל אמיתי, אבל שום דבר לא מובטח: צבר ההזמנות זעום, אף לקוח לא מהווה יותר מעשירית מהמכירות, Kuprion עדיין בלי הערכת היקף, והצמיחה תלויה בהחלטות של לקוחות על הרחבת קיבולת.
רמת סיכון3/4 →
הלקוחות והאזורים מפוזרים ואין אירוע בינארי. הריכוזיות החמורה היחידה: כמעט מחצית ממסי ההכנסה ששילמה ב-2025 שולמו בסין.
תמחור2/4 ↓
מכפיל של 15 על ה-EBITDA המתואם שבתחזית החברה ושל 49 על הרווח בארבעת הרבעונים האחרונים, הרבה מעל החציון שלה בשש השנים האחרונות בכל מדד שבחבילת הנתונים.
חוזק הראיות3/4 →
הטענות המרכזיות מופיעות בדוחות ואושרו בידי שלוש חברות עצמאיות, אבל יציבות הצמיחה נשענת על תשובות של ההנהלה שאין להן עיגון באף דוח.
השורה התחתונה
הציון שלנו: ניטרלית. Element Solutions מייצרת את הכימיקלים שמפעלי אלקטרוניקה צורכים, מאמבטיות ציפוי ועד משחות הלחמה, ובניית תשתיות ה-AI האיצה את הצמיחה שלה. העסק טוב, אבל כשליש מההכנסות הוא מתכת שמועברת ללקוחות בלי רווח, ולכן המניה נראית זולה ממה שהיא באמת. לפי הרווח המתואם של החברה המחיר הוגן; לפי הרווח שהיא מדווחת אחרי עלות הרכישות, הוא יקר. בסך הכול המחיר מלא, לא זול. ההערכה תלויה בכך שהצמיחה תגיע מגידול בכמויות ולא ממחיר המתכות, ותימשך גם בשנה הבאה.
הטיעון לטווח הארוךמחשוב AI דורש אריזות שבבים ולוחות מתקדמים יותר, וכל אחד מהם צורך יותר כימיקלים. Element Solutions תרוויח רק אם הצמיחה שלה תגיע מגידול בכמויות ולא ממחירי מתכות שמועברים הלאה.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 8 טענות
C01עובדהhigh confidence
Element Solutions sells specialty chemistry and materials that its customers consume as part of their own production process, which makes the revenue recur with their output rather than with a replacement cycle.
C08עובדהhigh confidence
Organic net sales grew 15% in the second quarter of 2026, with Electronics up 20% and Specialties up 3%, the third consecutive quarter of double-digit organic growth.
C03עובדהhigh confidence
Pass-through metals were $317.4 million of the $977.9 million of second-quarter 2026 net sales, against $113.4 million of $625.2 million a year earlier - roughly a third of reported revenue against roughly a fifth.
C04טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Management states that for the most part the company does not realise margins on the metals it passes through, and that deflationary metal pricing should not materially affect profit dollars.
against this
- Management also said higher metal prices give it 'a little bit of an opportunity to take price in some of our businesses, Micromax being one of them', so the pass-through is not perfectly margin-neutral in the upward direction and part of the reported margin gain may be price taken under cover of metal inflation rather than mix.
- It also said that in the semiconductor and industrial businesses it does not adjust organic growth for metals at all, so metal price is inside the organic figure there, which is inconsistent with treating metal as purely a pass-through everywhere.
C37עובדהmedium confidence
On enterprise value against operating profit struck after amortisation of what was acquired, the shares sit near the median of the two competitors their own annual report names and whose filings confirm the same product, between the two of them and just above the cheaper.
- 2026-09-26editedRe-struck on the refreshed pack's cohort at the 25 September 2026 close: EV/EBIT 26.9 against Qnity 26.8 and MKS 29.6, median 28.2 (was 27.1 against a 27.75 median), so it now sits just above the cheaper of the two rather than essentially at the median.
C36אומדןmedium confidence
At the current price the shares trade near forty-nine times trailing reported earnings and about fifteen times the midpoint of the company's own raised 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance, and the distance between those two is roughly $120 million a year of acquired-intangible amortisation plus recurring acquisition and integration expense that the adjusted measure removes and a serial acquirer keeps incurring.
derivedTrailing price to earnings and enterprise value come from the frozen research pack. The forward multiple is that enterprise value divided by the $690-710 million guidance midpoint from the results release. The amortisation run rate annualises the $29.5 million charged in the second quarter; acquisition, integration and transaction expense was $30.7 million in the first half and $11.6 million in the comparable half of 2025, and has appeared in every period examined.
against this
- Amortisation of acquired intangibles is genuinely non-cash, and a buyer of this business is buying cash flow rather than book earnings, so the trailing GAAP multiple overstates what the equity costs on the measure that matters most.
- But the trailing figure is also depressed by only two quarters of ownership of businesses the forward guide includes for a full year, so neither multiple describes the same company and the truth sits between them - which is the reason the frame below is struck on operating profit after amortisation rather than on either.
- 2026-09-26editedRe-struck at the 25 September 2026 close in the refreshed pack: trailing price to reported earnings 48.6 (was 49.0) and enterprise value $10.63B over the $700M guidance midpoint about 15.2 times; the wording holds.
C38הסקהmedium confidence
Every valuation measure on which the shares look cheaper than that cohort is struck on revenue, on book value, or on profit before amortisation of what was acquired, and every measure on which they look dearer is struck on profit or cash flow after it.
derivedIn the refreshed pack's cohort at the 25 September 2026 close the subject ranks cheapest of three on enterprise value to sales, price to sales, price to book and enterprise value to EBITDA, dearest of three on price to earnings and price to free cash flow, and between the two members on enterprise value to operating profit. The revenue denominator carries a third of reported sales in pass-through metal the competitors do not carry to the same degree, which mechanically depresses every revenue multiple and every margin; the book denominator carries goodwill from acquisitions the competitors have less of; and EBITDA adds back the roughly $120 million a year of acquired-intangible amortisation (C36) that operating profit charges. All three distortions run the same way.
against this
- Qnity's own MD&A refers to price 'including metals pass-through', so at least one cohort member also carries metal in its revenue and the distortion is a difference of degree rather than a clean separation - neither company discloses its metal content in a way that would let the multiples be restated on a common basis.
- Both peers sell competing chemistry out of one segment of a larger company, at 44% and 34% of revenue, so their whole-company multiples price a great deal that is not this activity, and the comparison characterises the group rather than pricing the subject.
- 2026-09-26editedCorrected against the pack: the original basis omitted enterprise value to EBITDA, on which the subject ranked cheapest of three in the 6 September pack (19.2 against a 20.45 median) and still does (19.0 against 19.8 and 21.8), so 'every cheap measure is revenue or book' was false as written. The exception is the amortisation add-back the thesis already argues about, so the claim now names it; the argument is unchanged.
C07הסקהhigh confidence
The company's headline adjusted EBITDA margin is struck on net sales excluding pass-through metals, not on reported net sales, so the margin it publishes and the revenue it publishes have different denominators.
derivedAdjusted EBITDA of $183.5 million divided by reported net sales of $977.9 million is 18.8%, but divided by the release's ex-metals net sales of $660.5 million it is 27.8%, which is the figure the release headlines. The prior-year pair reproduces the same way, $136.0 million over $511.8 million giving the 26.6% stated. Both segment margins reproduce on the same basis. The release also states the margin improved '120 basis points' and the prepared remarks describe it as margin 'excluding the impact of pass-through metals'.
against this
- The company does label the measure as excluding pass-through metals in the prepared remarks and in the non-GAAP section, so this is disclosed rather than concealed - the finding is that the headline revenue growth and the headline margin are computed on different bases within the same release, not that either is misstated.
- A reader taking the 27.8% margin and applying it to reported revenue would overstate adjusted EBITDA by roughly a third, which is the practical consequence and the reason it is worth stating.
החברה
כל לוח מעגלים וכל אריזת שבב צריכים כימיקלים כדי להיווצר: אמבטיות ציפוי שמגדלות חיווט נחושת בתוך לוחות ועל גבי פרוסות סיליקון, משחות הלחמה שמחברות רכיבים ללוחות, ומשחות כסף ונחושת שמדביקות שבבי הספק לבסיס שלהם. Element Solutions מוכרת את כל אלה, וגם כימיקלים לגימור עבור מפעלי ציפוי לרכב ולתעשייה.
כמעט כולם נצרכים בייצור ומוזמנים מחדש, ולכן המכירות עוקבות אחרי התפוקה של הלקוח. בלעדיהם אין חיבור בכלל; האלטרנטיבה היחידה היא הכימיקלים של ספק אחר.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 3 טענות
C01עובדהhigh confidence
Element Solutions sells specialty chemistry and materials that its customers consume as part of their own production process, which makes the revenue recur with their output rather than with a replacement cycle.
C33עובדהhigh confidence
The company names MKS Instruments, Qnity Electronics, Henkel, Senju Metal and Uyemura as its most significant Electronics competitors, and MKS, Quaker Houghton and Castrol in Specialties.
C34טענת ההנהלהlow confidence
Kuprion is a copper-nanoparticle sintering paste that forms a bulk copper joint at solder reflow temperatures which then remains stable far above them, aimed at power semiconductor die attach and thermal applications where silver sintering is the incumbent.
sourceMacDermid Alpha product literature for Kuprion ActiveCopper…primarySecond quarter 2026 earnings call transcript, held 28 July…primary
against this
- The technical description rests on the company's own product literature and its earnings call. The granted patent behind it, USPTO 11929341, was located but its full text could not be opened, so no independent specification of the mechanism was read.
- Management declined to size the 2027 revenue, saying it is 'dangerous to size these things' because the second plant's timing decides the figure, and the product is at sampling and qualification rather than in production - which is precisely the stage at which the qualification barrier that protects the rest of the portfolio works against a new entrant.
- 2026-10-22editedthird-quarter call reported two customer qualifications for high-volume manufacturing (C61); the mechanism and the immaterial revenue today are unchanged, so the wording stands
ממה היא מרוויחה
ההזמנות קטנות ורציפות: כמעט אין לחברה צבר הזמנות, ואף לקוח לא מהווה עשירית מהמכירות. חלק ממחיר כל מוצר הוא הכסף או הפח שבתוכו, שמועבר ללקוח במחיר עלות: 317.4 מיליון דולר מתוך מכירות של 977.9 מיליון דולר ברבעון השני, ועליהם, לדברי ההנהלה, היא כמעט לא מרוויחה.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 4 טענות
C01עובדהhigh confidence
Element Solutions sells specialty chemistry and materials that its customers consume as part of their own production process, which makes the revenue recur with their output rather than with a replacement cycle.
C18עובדהhigh confidence
No customer represented ten per cent or more of consolidated net sales in 2025, 2024 or 2023, and order backlog levels are minimal because of short cycle times in most of the businesses.
C03עובדהhigh confidence
Pass-through metals were $317.4 million of the $977.9 million of second-quarter 2026 net sales, against $113.4 million of $625.2 million a year earlier - roughly a third of reported revenue against roughly a fifth.
C04טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Management states that for the most part the company does not realise margins on the metals it passes through, and that deflationary metal pricing should not materially affect profit dollars.
against this
- Management also said higher metal prices give it 'a little bit of an opportunity to take price in some of our businesses, Micromax being one of them', so the pass-through is not perfectly margin-neutral in the upward direction and part of the reported margin gain may be price taken under cover of metal inflation rather than mix.
- It also said that in the semiconductor and industrial businesses it does not adjust organic growth for metals at all, so metal price is inside the organic figure there, which is inconsistent with treating metal as purely a pass-through everywhere.
פירוט מקורות ההכנסה
| מקור | משקל במכירות (הרבעון השני של 2026) | איך |
|---|---|---|
| Assembly Solutions | 37.7% | משחות הלחמה, שטפים וחומרים תרמיים שמחברים רכיבים ללוחות. בערך מחצית מהמכירות הן פח וכסף שמועברים במחיר עלות. |
| Industrial Solutions | 17.6% | כימיקלים לגימור מתכת ופלסטיק, כמו ניקל כימי וציפוי כרום, לחלקי רכב, מכשירי חשמל ותעשייה. |
| Circuitry Solutions | 15.8% | כימיקלים לציפוי ולגימור משטחים שיוצרים את נתיבי הנחושת בלוחות מעגלים, ונצרכים בתהליך הייצור של הלוחות. |
| Micromax | 13.2% | משחות ודיו מוליכים שנרכשו בפברואר 2026; כשני שלישים ממכירותיה ברבעון השני היו תכולת מתכת. |
| Semiconductor Solutions | 11.8% | כימיקלים לציפוי פרוסות סיליקון ולאריזה מתקדמת, ליצרניות שבבים ולחברות אריזה, שנצרכים בכל פרוסה שמעובדת. |
| Energy Solutions | 2.4% | נוזלי בקרה הידראוליים על בסיס מים להפקה וקידוח של נפט וגז בים. |
| EFC | 1.6% | גזים וחומרים מיוחדים בטוהר גבוה לייצור שבבים, שנרכשו בינואר 2026. |
ההנהלה
Ben Gliklich מנהל את החברה מאז 2019. ב-22 באוקטובר Carey Dorman, סמנכ״לית הכספים, מונתה גם לנשיאה, וסמנכ״ל תפעול חדש קיבל את האחריות על יחידות העסק. המייסד Sir Martin Franklin עזב את הדירקטוריון במאי. בעלי עניין מחזיקים בכ-6%. התגמול נשען על רווח מתואם, שאינו כולל את עלות העסקאות הקודמות; בעלי המניות דחו את התוכנית במאי.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 6 טענות
C49עובדהhigh confidence
Benjamin Gliklich has been chief executive since January 2019, having joined in 2014, and Carey Dorman chief financial officer since March 2019 and also president of enterprise operations since October 2025; founder Sir Martin Franklin left the board as executive chairman at the 4 May 2026 annual meeting, the board proposed Ian Ashken as independent chairman, and Franklin's Mariposa Capital, paid a $2.0 million services fee in 2025, is to keep advising for at least three years.
C50עובדהhigh confidence
Directors and executive officers as a group owned 6.2% of the shares at 9 March 2026, of which Sir Martin Franklin held 5.2% and the chief executive 1.27 million shares, under 1%; BlackRock (10.9%), Vanguard (10.3%) and FMR (7.1%) were the other holders above 5%, and there is one class of common stock.
against this
Franklin's 5.2% sits with a director who left the board on 4 May 2026 (C49), so the group figure overstates what the people now running the company own, and both he and the chief executive have sold shares since mid-2025 (C40).
C51עובדהhigh confidence
The 2025 annual bonus paid on company-wide and business adjusted EBITDA and on adjusted earnings per share; long-term awards are 67% performance units vesting after three years on constant-currency adjusted EBITDA growth and adjusted earnings per share, modified from 2025 by total shareholder return against a peer group, when adjusted earnings per share replaced cash return on investment, and 33% time-vesting units.
against this
Every operating metric in the plan is adjusted, and adjusted earnings per share eliminates all amortisation of acquired intangibles (C23), so pay rides on the profit measures on which acquisitions look cheapest (C38); replacing cash return on investment removed the one metric that charged for the capital spent.
C52עובדהhigh confidence
The board cancelled the 2022 stretch awards, whose target of doubling adjusted earnings per share from 2021 to 2026 it judged unattainable, and on 10 December 2025 granted 1,465,000 vested shares instead, 750,000 of them to the chief executive, at about 75% of the original awards' value and locked up in thirds to December 2028; the grant cost $37.1 million and the chief executive's 2025 pay was $26.5 million.
sourceElement Solutions proxy statement (DEF 14A), filed March 23,…primaryForm 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025primary
against this
The board's case is that the company led its proxy peer group on three- and five-year shareholder return while chief-executive pay sat in the bottom quartile of that group, so the grant paid for results that happened rather than against a miss.
C54עובדהhigh confidence
At the 4 May 2026 annual meeting shareholders rejected the advisory vote on executive pay by 133.5 million votes to 94.5 million, and directors Michael Goss, Ian Ashken and Susan Sofronas drew 47.7 million, 40.8 million and 32.9 million votes against.
against this
The vote is advisory and binds the board to nothing, and 93.92% of votes cast approved the 2024 pay a year earlier (S13), so the objection reads as one to the December 2025 grant rather than a standing one.
C60עובדהhigh confidence
On 22 October 2026 the company announced that Matt Liebowitz, head of strategy and corporate development, becomes chief operating officer with the Electronics and Specialties business units reporting to him, Rick Fricke becomes an advisor, and Carey Dorman becomes president in addition to chief financial officer; Electronics will be split into more autonomous customer-aligned business units under the MacDermid Alpha brand.
היתרון התחרותי, ומי מאיים עליו
למה הלקוחות נשארים
הכימיקלים הם חלק מהתהליך המאושר של הלקוח. מעבר לספק אחר פירושו להוכיח מחדש תפוקה ואמינות, כדי לחסוך מעט על חומר שהוא חלק קטן מעלות המוצר אבל קובע אם כל השאר יעבוד.
הראיה הטובה ביותר מגיעה ממתחרה. MKS, שמוכרת כימיקלים לציפוי מתחרים, מספרת לבעלי המניות שלה שלקוחות צריכים הסמכה ממושכת לפני שהם מזמינים מספק חדש. ההנהלה אומרת שמעבר ספק הוא נדיר מאוד.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 2 טענות
C12עובדהhigh confidence
A competitor selling the same plating chemistry discloses that prospective customers typically require lengthy qualification periods before placing volume orders with a new supplier, and that customers may require requalification even when it moves production between its own plants.
C13טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Management says switching costs in its industry are really high and that customers switching is very uncommon, and that where it has taken share the gains should be sticky.
against this
- Management said in the same answer that some recent share gains came because local competitors 'haven't been capitalized to float metal and handle the payment terms' at spiked metal prices - a financing advantage that reverses when metal prices fall, not a qualification barrier, and management itself flagged that business as transactional and not the kind it wants.
- The company publishes no retention rate, win rate, average customer tenure or count of processes of record, so the assertion cannot be checked against any disclosed number.
האיום
Qnity ו-MKS מוכרות את אותם כימיקלים לציפוי, 3.4 מיליארד דולר ביחד בשנה שעברה, וכל אחת מהן מונה את Element Solutions בין המתחרות העיקריות שלה. האיום העמוק יותר הוא חיבור היברידי של TSMC, שכבר בייצור: הוא מחבר שבבים מוערמים נחושת לנחושת בלי הלחמה כלל, בחלק הצומח ביותר באריזת שבבים.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 3 טענות
C16עובדהhigh confidence
Qnity's Interconnect Solutions segment had 2025 net sales of $2,112 million and MKS's Materials Solutions Division $1,323 million, so the two listed competitors whose filings can be read disclose roughly $3.4 billion of revenue in the same activity.
C17עובדהhigh confidence
Both named listed competitors name Element Solutions back: Qnity lists it among its most notable competitors and MKS names it first among the companies competing with its chemistry products.
C14עובדהhigh confidence
TSMC offers hybrid-bonding-based stacking commercially as TSMC-SoIC within its 3DFabric family and is spending capital expenditure on expanding advanced packaging capacity, so solder-free die-to-die joining is in production rather than announced.
against this
- The 20-F names SoIC and CoWoS as services offered and does not disclose what share of packaged units use hybrid bonding rather than microbumps, so the filing establishes that the substitute ships and not how much of the market it has taken.
- Hybrid bonding needs electroplated copper pads and filled through-silicon vias, which is chemistry this company sells, so the substitution removes assembly material at one interface while adding plating demand at another - the net effect on its revenue is not established by this source or any other reached.
פוטנציאל הצמיחה
גודל ההזדמנות
אף גוף לא מפרסם כמה מפעלי אלקטרוניקה מוציאים על הכימיקלים האלה. שלוש הספקיות הנסחרות שאפשר לקרוא את הדוחות שלהן מוכרות יחד בערך 5 מיליארד דולר בשנה. המתחרות הגדולות ביותר בחומרי הלחמה והרכבה, Henkel, Senju Metal ו-Uyemura, אינן מדווחות על שורה דומה, ולכן החלק שאיש אינו מודד הוא העסק הגדול ביותר של Element Solutions עצמה.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 3 טענות
C16עובדהhigh confidence
Qnity's Interconnect Solutions segment had 2025 net sales of $2,112 million and MKS's Materials Solutions Division $1,323 million, so the two listed competitors whose filings can be read disclose roughly $3.4 billion of revenue in the same activity.
C43עובדהhigh confidence
Electronics contributed approximately 70% of 2025 net sales of $2,551.2 million and Specialties approximately 30%, with Assembly Solutions about half of the Electronics segment and roughly half of Assembly Solutions' sales being metal content passed through to customers.
C33עובדהhigh confidence
The company names MKS Instruments, Qnity Electronics, Henkel, Senju Metal and Uyemura as its most significant Electronics competitors, and MKS, Quaker Houghton and Castrol in Specialties.
התוצאות
המספרים
היא צומחת?מהר
המכירות צמחו ב-40% ב-12 החודשים עד ספטמבר 2026, לעומת 3.8% בשנה שהסתיימה בדצמבר 2025.
היא רווחית?כן
שיעור הרווח התפעולי הוא 12%, לעומת 7.4% בשנה שהסתיימה בדצמבר 2023.
הצמיחה משתלמת?בלי שיפור
ההוצאות התפעוליות עומדות על 25 סנט מכל דולר מכירות, לעומת 28 סנט בשנה שהסתיימה בדצמבר 2021.
התשואה על ההון גבוהה?נמוכה
כל דולר שהושקע בעסק מניב 5.8% בשנה אחרי מס, כמעט כמו ב-5.9% בשנה שהסתיימה בדצמבר 2021.
עד כמה היא יציבה?לא אחידה
צמיחת המכירות השנתית נעה בין −8.5% ל-+29% בחמש השנים האחרונות, ובאחת מהן המכירות ירדו.
בעלי המניות מדוללים?לא
מספר המניות ירד ב-1.7% ב-4.8 שנים, ותגמול מבוסס מניות עולה 2.4% מהמכירות.
כל המספרים
נתונים מהדוחות השנתיים (10-K) והרבעוניים (10-Q) של החברה, נקראו ב-22 באוקטובר 2026. שנת הכספים מסתיימת בדצמבר.
| דצמבר 2021 | דצמבר 2022 | דצמבר 2023 | דצמבר 2024 | דצמבר 2025 | 12 חודשים עד ספטמבר 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| גודל וצמיחה | ||||||
| מכירות | $2.40B | $2.55B | $2.33B | $2.46B | $2.55B | $3.49B |
| צמיחת המכירות | +29% | +6.2% | −8.5% | +5.3% | +3.8% | +40% |
| רווח | ||||||
| שיעור הרווח הגולמי | 40% | 37% | 39% | 42% | 42% | 37% |
| שיעור הרווח התפעולי | 12% | 13% | 7.4% | 14% | 13% | 12% |
| שיעור הרווח הנקי | - | 7.3% | 5.1% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 5.9% |
| עלות הצמיחה, לכל דולר מכירות | ||||||
| מחקר ופיתוח | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.3% |
| הוצאות מכירה, הנהלה וכלליות | 25% | 23% | 26% | 26% | 26% | 23% |
| תגמול מבוסס מניות | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 2.3% | 2.4% |
| השקעות הוניות | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.9% |
| מזומנים | ||||||
| תזרים מפעילות שוטפת | $326M | $296M | $334M | $362M | $290M | - |
| תזרים מזומנים חופשי | $280M | $248M | $281M | $294M | $228M | - |
| מאזן | ||||||
| מזומנים והשקעות לזמן קצר | $330M | $266M | $289M | $359M | $626M | $225M |
| חוב | $1.91B | $1.90B | $1.93B | $1.82B | $1.63B | $2.08B |
| מזומן נטו | −$1.58B | −$1.63B | −$1.64B | −$1.46B | −$999M | −$1.86B |
| תשואות ומניות | ||||||
| תשואה על ההון המושקע | 5.9% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.8% |
| מספר המניות (בדילול מלא) | 248M | 246M | 242M | 243M | 242M | 244M |
עלות הצמיחה
הצמיחה לא שיפרה את הרווחיות של Element Solutions. הוצאות המחקר וההוצאות הכלליות אוכלות בערך אותו חלק מכל דולר מכירות כבר שנים, ולכן שיעורי הרווח כמעט לא זזו. המכירות נראות גדולות יותר לאחרונה בעיקר כי המתכות היקרות שהיא מעבירה במחיר עלות התייקרו, לא כי ההוצאות פיגרו.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 2 טענות
C48עובדהhigh confidence
Per sales dollar, research and development ran between 1.9 and 2.9 cents in every year from 2020 to 2025 and 2.4 over the four quarters to June 2026, selling, technical, general and administrative costs between 22.7 and 27.2 cents and then 23.5, and capital spending rose from 1.6 to 2.7 cents; operating margin stayed between 12.5% and 14.0% in every year but 2023, when an $80.0 million goodwill impairment cut it to 7.4%.
sourceForm 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025primaryForm 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2022primaryForm 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026primary
against this
- Pass-through metals were roughly a third of second-quarter 2026 sales against a fifth a year earlier (C03), so the lower overhead share in the latest four quarters comes largely from a larger denominator, not from costs growing more slowly than the business.
- Stock pay was under 2 cents per sales dollar in every year but 2025, when the $37.1 million December share grant (C52) took it to 2.3 cents, so one year's figure is a one-off rather than a trend.
C03עובדהhigh confidence
Pass-through metals were $317.4 million of the $977.9 million of second-quarter 2026 net sales, against $113.4 million of $625.2 million a year earlier - roughly a third of reported revenue against roughly a fifth.
הדוח האחרון (27 ביולי)
הרבעון שהסתיים ביוני 2026, לפי הדוחות.
56%
צמיחת המכירות
לעומת הרבעון המקביל אשתקד
16.4%
צמיחה לעומת הרבעון הקודם
לעומת 24.2% ברבעון שלפני כן
12¢
רווח תפעולי
לכל דולר מכירות
מכירות הרבעון השלישי הגיעו ל-995 מיליון דולר, עלייה של 52% בדיווח, אבל 13% בלי רכישות ובלי התייקרות המתכת. תחום האלקטרוניקה, שניזון מה-AI, צמח כך ב-18%, ותחום Specialties הקטן צמח ב-1%. הרווח לפני ריבית, מס ומחיקות היה 191 מיליון דולר, שיעור של 28.2% מהמכירות לא כולל מתכת, והתחזית לשנה כולה עלתה לכ-720 מיליון דולר.
בשיחה אמר המנכ״ל שהצמיחה הגיעה ״בעיקר״ מהיקפים ולא ממחיר המתכת, אבל לא נקב באחוז. הרבעון הרביעי צפוי נמוך בכ-15 מיליון דולר, אותה ירידה עונתית כמו בשנים קודמות.
מה זה אומר על התזהבשיחה לא נמסר חלקם של ההיקפים בצמיחה, שהמבחן ביקש לדעת, ולכן השאלה עדיין פתוחה. מצד שני, לא נמסר גם שום דבר שמטיל ספק ברבעון, ולכן ההערכה נשארת ניטרלית.
הרבעון בפירוט
צמיחת המכירות לעומת הרבעון הקודם, לפי הדוחות.
רווח למניה $0.47 לעומת $0.43 צפוי; $0.32 לפי הדוחות, והפער הוא הסעיפים שהחברה מנטרלת.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 6 טענות
C55עובדהhigh confidence
Third-quarter 2026 net sales were $995.3 million, up 52% reported and 13% organic; Electronics was $779.6 million, up 68% reported and 18% organic, and Specialties $216 million, up 13% reported and 1% organic.
C56עובדהhigh confidence
Third-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA was $191 million against $147 million a year earlier, a margin of 28.2% on net sales excluding pass-through metals ($676.8 million), up 50 basis points; Electronics contributed $148 million and Specialties $43 million.
C11עובדהhigh confidence
The company raised full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $690-710 million in July from $650-670 million, then to approximately $720 million on 21 October 2026 after a third quarter of $191 million against the roughly $180 million it had guided.
sourceSecond quarter 2026 results release, Exhibit 99.1 to Form 8-KprimaryFull year 2025 results release, Exhibit 99.1 to Form 8-KprimaryThird quarter 2026 results release, Exhibit 99.1 to Form 8-Kprimary
- 2026-10-21editedthird-quarter release raised the 2026 adjusted EBITDA guide again to about $720 million and the quarter beat its own roughly $180 million guide
- 2026-10-22editedthird-quarter call read: the implied fourth quarter is stated, searched note extended
C10טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
About two-thirds of the semiconductor business's second-quarter organic growth was volume and about a third was precious metal price, because the company does not strip metals out of organic growth in its semiconductor and industrial businesses.
against this
- This materially qualifies the headline organic growth rate, and it exists only as a spoken answer to an analyst - no filing states which businesses are inside the metals adjustment and which are outside it, so the proportion of the 15% consolidated organic figure that is metal price cannot be computed from any document.
- Management gave two slightly different splits in the same call, 'call it, 60% to two-thirds' volume in one answer and 'about two-thirds is volume and one-third is metal price inflation' in another, so the figure is approximate even as stated.
- 2026-10-22editedthird-quarter call did not restate the two-thirds split (C58 carries what was said); evidence for the second quarter remains the only quantified split, so its review date moves to the fourth-quarter results
C58טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
On the third-quarter 2026 call the chief executive said that, apart from metal price volatility, growth in all businesses came 'from volume primarily', with Micromax rising in higher-value volume while lower-value automotive volume fell; the semiconductor business's growth was described as 'magnified' by higher precious metal prices, and no volume-to-price percentage was given for the quarter.
against this
- The statement is spoken, qualitative and unquantified: it does not repeat the two-thirds volume and one-third metal price split given for the second quarter (C10), so the volume share of the semiconductor business's 24% organic growth is still not a number in any document.
- The chief financial officer said the semiconductor growth was 'magnified' by the year-over-year rise in precious metal prices, which is the metal effect the thesis is worried about, and Micromax, where roughly two-thirds of $140 million of quarterly sales relates to metals, is expressly outside the 'volume' description.
C59טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
The chief financial officer said that excluding the above-target incentive pay accruals, which cost more than 100 basis points of margin year over year, third-quarter incremental margins were in the mid-40s per cent for the whole business and about 50% for Electronics, against the 30% to 40% target range, and that the upper end of that range should continue into 2027; the guidance of about $720 million implies a fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $175 to $176 million, down about $15 million from the third, which he attributed to holiday operating days and 'a little bit of conservatism'.
against this
- An incremental margin 'ex incentive pay' removes a cost that exists because the company beat its plan; the reported incremental margin is lower, and the chief financial officer gave no reported figure.
- A fourth quarter $15 million below the third is the same size as the seasonal drop of the last two years, so the guide neither raises nor lowers the underlying trend, and an analyst's 'around $183 million' consensus figure for the quarter sits above it.
לאן הלך הכסף
היא לווה כדי לקנות: EFC בכ-367 מיליון דולר בינואר ו-Micromax בכ-494 מיליון דולר בפברואר. החוב עלה ל-2.12 מיליארד דולר, מול 189.6 מיליון דולר במזומן. ביולי היא הסכימה להימכר ל-Solstice, ובאוגוסט ביטלה את העסקה אחרי שבעלי המניות שלה התנגדו.
בעלי עניין ברבעון השני של 2026: 13 רכישות ו-7 מכירות, לפי דיווחי Form 4 שלהם.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 4 טענות
C19עובדהhigh confidence
The company bought EFC Gases & Advanced Materials for about $367 million on 2 January 2026 and Micromax for about $494 million on 2 February 2026, funding Micromax with $450 million of incremental term loans and revolver borrowings.
C20עובדהhigh confidence
Total debt was $2,119.4 million against cash of $189.6 million at 30 June 2026, having been $1,625.9 million against $626.5 million at the end of 2025.
C25עובדהhigh confidence
The company agreed on 6 July 2026 to be acquired by Solstice Advanced Materials for 0.5 Solstice shares plus $10.00 in cash per share, and the two mutually terminated the agreement on 27 August 2026 with neither party owing the other any payment.
C26טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Management attributes the termination to its own shareholders, saying the boards concluded both companies would serve shareholders better standalone and that the termination is a direct response to shareholder feedback.
against this
- This is the parties' own account of why a deal they had signed seven weeks earlier collapsed, and a mutual termination with no fee is also what a transaction failing for other reasons would look like if both sides preferred not to say so.
- The chief executive had described the stock's reaction to the announcement as 'disappointing' on the July call while defending the deal's logic, so the account is at least consistent with the observable price reaction; the shares nonetheless fell 4.4% in the session after the termination was announced, which is not obviously the reaction of a shareholder base that got what it wanted.
המחיר, ואיפה אנחנו חלוקים על השוק
בקצרה. מלא. הוגן אם סופרים רק את הרווח המתואם של החברה, יקר לפי הרווח שהיא מדווחת, והפער הוא עלות ממשית של צמיחה באמצעות רכישת חברות אחרות.
מחיר המניה
$35.71
שער סגירה,
שווי החברה לכל דולר רווח תפעולי
26.9
אמצע הטווח של המתחרות: 28.2
בניית תשתיות ה-AI מזינה אותה. מכירות המחשוב עתיר הביצועים של TSMC צמחו ב-48% ב-2025, וההנהלה אומרת שלקוחות ברחבי אסיה מוסיפים קיבולת ולא רק מצטיידים במלאי.
הרבעון השלישי עמד ברוב המבחן, ובשיחה לא דווח על אובדן ביקוש. הרבעון הרביעי, שיפורסם עד אמצע פברואר, יראה אם הצמיחה נובעת מהיקפים ולא ממחיר המתכת.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 4 טענות
C15עובדהhigh confidence
TSMC reports high performance computing revenue grew 48% in 2025 to 58% of its net revenue, from 43% in 2023, and that its 2025 capital expenditure was NT$1,272,411 million against NT$956,007 million in 2024.
C45טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Management describes customers across semiconductor fabs, circuit board fabs and device assemblers adding capacity in Taiwan, Korea, China and outside China, and says the improvement in the organic outlook over the quarter came from those capacity additions rather than from channel inventory.
against this
- This is the company's own read of its customers' intentions, and it made a similar statement about pull-forward concerns a year earlier - which management itself raised on the call as evidence the pattern held, but which is equally an admission that the same reassurance has been given before.
- It sits against a consumer electronics backdrop management calls weak, a smartphone market it says is down in units, and its own decision not to assume the normal third-quarter seasonal ramp, so the capacity narrative is not corroborated by the end demand the capacity is being built for.
C08עובדהhigh confidence
Organic net sales grew 15% in the second quarter of 2026, with Electronics up 20% and Specialties up 3%, the third consecutive quarter of double-digit organic growth.
C62טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Management said the market for circuit boards is forecast to grow over 10% in 2026, up from about 6% in December, with all the acceleration from data centres while consumer electronics is soft; that its Circuitry business has outgrown that market by more than 500 basis points year to date and its data-centre board applications by more than 20%; that Q4 'is off to a solid start' with no erosion of demand; that its outlook is firm 'well into 2027'; and that it would not speak for 2028.
against this
- Demand visibility rests on customers' capital plans and forecasts, not contracts: the chief executive said order forecasts 'change' and 'we have seen that change in the past', and the company has minimal backlog (the thesis's own risk).
- The 'north of 20%' growth in data-centre boards is the chief executive's extrapolation from Circuitry's 16% growth and falling consumer volumes, not a reported figure, and the long-term target he repeated is only a point or two of outperformance.
איך לקרוא את המכפיל
המשקיעים משלמים כ-49 פעמים את הרווח המדווח של השנה שעברה, אבל רק כ-15 פעמים את הרווח המתואם שהחברה מבטיחה לשנה הנוכחית. הפער הוא בערך 120 מיליון דולר בשנה של הפחתות על עסקים שרכשה, ועוד עלות הרכישה עצמה.
הרווח המתואם משמיט אותן, אבל חברה שממשיכה לקנות ממשיכה לשלם אותן. אם רואים בעלות הזאת עלות לא אמיתית, המחיר הוגן; אם רואים בה עלות ממשית, המניה יקרה.
מול ההיסטוריה שלה. יקרה מהעבר שלה בכל מדד, ובעיקר ברווח. צמיחה מהירה יותר מצדיקה חלק מהפער; השאר הוא הימור שהיא תימשך.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 3 טענות
C36אומדןmedium confidence
At the current price the shares trade near forty-nine times trailing reported earnings and about fifteen times the midpoint of the company's own raised 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance, and the distance between those two is roughly $120 million a year of acquired-intangible amortisation plus recurring acquisition and integration expense that the adjusted measure removes and a serial acquirer keeps incurring.
derivedTrailing price to earnings and enterprise value come from the frozen research pack. The forward multiple is that enterprise value divided by the $690-710 million guidance midpoint from the results release. The amortisation run rate annualises the $29.5 million charged in the second quarter; acquisition, integration and transaction expense was $30.7 million in the first half and $11.6 million in the comparable half of 2025, and has appeared in every period examined.
against this
- Amortisation of acquired intangibles is genuinely non-cash, and a buyer of this business is buying cash flow rather than book earnings, so the trailing GAAP multiple overstates what the equity costs on the measure that matters most.
- But the trailing figure is also depressed by only two quarters of ownership of businesses the forward guide includes for a full year, so neither multiple describes the same company and the truth sits between them - which is the reason the frame below is struck on operating profit after amortisation rather than on either.
- 2026-09-26editedRe-struck at the 25 September 2026 close in the refreshed pack: trailing price to reported earnings 48.6 (was 49.0) and enterprise value $10.63B over the $700M guidance midpoint about 15.2 times; the wording holds.
C37עובדהmedium confidence
On enterprise value against operating profit struck after amortisation of what was acquired, the shares sit near the median of the two competitors their own annual report names and whose filings confirm the same product, between the two of them and just above the cheaper.
- 2026-09-26editedRe-struck on the refreshed pack's cohort at the 25 September 2026 close: EV/EBIT 26.9 against Qnity 26.8 and MKS 29.6, median 28.2 (was 27.1 against a 27.75 median), so it now sits just above the cheaper of the two rather than essentially at the median.
C23עובדהhigh confidence
Amortisation of acquired intangibles was $29.5 million in the second quarter of 2026 and $57.5 million in the half, and the company's adjusted earnings per share measure eliminates all of it.
המכפיל מול המתחרים
המתחרות שהדוח השנתי של החברה עצמה מונה בשמן, וכל אחת מהן אומתה מול הדוח שלה. מדורגות לפי שווי החברה לכל דולר רווח תפעולי, מהזולה ליקרה:
| סימול | חברה | שווי החברה לכל דולר רווח תפעולי |
|---|---|---|
| Q | Qnity Electronics | 26.8× |
| ESI | Element Solutions | 26.9× |
| MKSI | MKS | 29.6× |
אמצע הטווח של שתי האחרות הוא 28.2. Element Solutions היא השנייה בזולה מבין שלוש.
נתוני המתחרות מגיעים מספק נתונים, ולכן עדיף להסתכל על טווח הערכים בקבוצה כולה ולא על השוואה בין שתי חברות בלבד.
בין שתי המתחרות הנסחרות ברווח אחרי הפחתות בגין רכישות, כך שהמחיר הוא המחיר של הקבוצה כולה, ולא מחיר חריג לחברה הזאת.
מתחרות פרטיות או זרות שאין להן מחיר להשוואה: Henkel Corporation, Senju Metal Industry Co., Ltd., Uyemura International, Castrol.
איפה אנחנו חלוקים על השוק
השוק חושב
האנליסטים חלוקים: 16 ממליצים לקנות, 12 להחזיק ו-7 למכור, ובעלי המניות סירבו לאחרונה להצעת רכישה כדי לשמור על עצמאות החברה.
אנחנו חושבים
הצמיחה אמיתית וטובה מהכותרת, אבל המחיר יקר ממה שנראה. שניהם נובעים מאותה מתכת.
המתכת פועלת לשני הכיוונים, ורוב הקוראים מתקנים רק לכיוון אחד. אם מוציאים אותה, שיעור הרווח נראה בריא, ונעלמת גם הסיבה שבגללה המניה נראית זולה: כל המדדים שבהם היא נראית זולה נמדדים על מכירות, על נכסים או על רווח לפני הפחתת מה שנרכש; וכל המדדים שבהם היא נראית יקרה נמדדים על רווח או תזרים אחרי ההפחתה.
הראיה שתסתור את ההערכה שלנו תהיה צמיחה של כ-15% שנמשכת לאורך 2027, כששיעור הרווח מגיע ל-30%.
מה אומרים האנליסטים
המלצות חיוביות
91%
מתוך 11, 1 בספטמבר
לפני ארבעה חודשים
90%
מתוך 10, 1 במאי
הראיות (באנגלית) · 5 טענות
C07הסקהhigh confidence
The company's headline adjusted EBITDA margin is struck on net sales excluding pass-through metals, not on reported net sales, so the margin it publishes and the revenue it publishes have different denominators.
derivedAdjusted EBITDA of $183.5 million divided by reported net sales of $977.9 million is 18.8%, but divided by the release's ex-metals net sales of $660.5 million it is 27.8%, which is the figure the release headlines. The prior-year pair reproduces the same way, $136.0 million over $511.8 million giving the 26.6% stated. Both segment margins reproduce on the same basis. The release also states the margin improved '120 basis points' and the prepared remarks describe it as margin 'excluding the impact of pass-through metals'.
against this
- The company does label the measure as excluding pass-through metals in the prepared remarks and in the non-GAAP section, so this is disclosed rather than concealed - the finding is that the headline revenue growth and the headline margin are computed on different bases within the same release, not that either is misstated.
- A reader taking the 27.8% margin and applying it to reported revenue would overstate adjusted EBITDA by roughly a third, which is the practical consequence and the reason it is worth stating.
C38הסקהmedium confidence
Every valuation measure on which the shares look cheaper than that cohort is struck on revenue, on book value, or on profit before amortisation of what was acquired, and every measure on which they look dearer is struck on profit or cash flow after it.
derivedIn the refreshed pack's cohort at the 25 September 2026 close the subject ranks cheapest of three on enterprise value to sales, price to sales, price to book and enterprise value to EBITDA, dearest of three on price to earnings and price to free cash flow, and between the two members on enterprise value to operating profit. The revenue denominator carries a third of reported sales in pass-through metal the competitors do not carry to the same degree, which mechanically depresses every revenue multiple and every margin; the book denominator carries goodwill from acquisitions the competitors have less of; and EBITDA adds back the roughly $120 million a year of acquired-intangible amortisation (C36) that operating profit charges. All three distortions run the same way.
against this
- Qnity's own MD&A refers to price 'including metals pass-through', so at least one cohort member also carries metal in its revenue and the distortion is a difference of degree rather than a clean separation - neither company discloses its metal content in a way that would let the multiples be restated on a common basis.
- Both peers sell competing chemistry out of one segment of a larger company, at 44% and 34% of revenue, so their whole-company multiples price a great deal that is not this activity, and the comparison characterises the group rather than pricing the subject.
- 2026-09-26editedCorrected against the pack: the original basis omitted enterprise value to EBITDA, on which the subject ranked cheapest of three in the 6 September pack (19.2 against a 20.45 median) and still does (19.0 against 19.8 and 21.8), so 'every cheap measure is revenue or book' was false as written. The exception is the amortisation add-back the thesis already argues about, so the claim now names it; the argument is unchanged.
C03עובדהhigh confidence
Pass-through metals were $317.4 million of the $977.9 million of second-quarter 2026 net sales, against $113.4 million of $625.2 million a year earlier - roughly a third of reported revenue against roughly a fifth.
C25עובדהhigh confidence
The company agreed on 6 July 2026 to be acquired by Solstice Advanced Materials for 0.5 Solstice shares plus $10.00 in cash per share, and the two mutually terminated the agreement on 27 August 2026 with neither party owing the other any payment.
C26טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Management attributes the termination to its own shareholders, saying the boards concluded both companies would serve shareholders better standalone and that the termination is a direct response to shareholder feedback.
against this
- This is the parties' own account of why a deal they had signed seven weeks earlier collapsed, and a mutual termination with no fee is also what a transaction failing for other reasons would look like if both sides preferred not to say so.
- The chief executive had described the stock's reaction to the announcement as 'disappointing' on the July call while defending the deal's logic, so the account is at least consistent with the observable price reaction; the shares nonetheless fell 4.4% in the session after the termination was announced, which is not obviously the reaction of a shareholder base that got what it wanted.
מה יכול להשתבש, ואיך נדע
הסיכונים
- שום דבר לא מובטח. צבר ההזמנות זעום, ולכן הצמיחה תלויה בלקוחות שימשיכו להוסיף קיבולת; האטה תיראה מיד.
- חוב מרכישות. החוב הגיע ל-2.12 מיליארד דולר אחרי שתי רכישות; ההנהלה צופה שהוא ירד ל-2.5 פעמים הרווח השנתי עד סוף 2026.
- נכסים שהם בעיקר מחיר רכישה. המחיר ששילמה על הרכישות גבוה מההון העצמי; בלעדיו החברה חייבת כ-730 מיליון דולר יותר ממה שיש לה.
- מחירי המתכות מתהפכים. התחזית מניחה מחירי מתכות יציבים, ובמחצית הראשונה נרשמו רווחים חד-פעמיים על גידורי מתכות.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 6 טענות
C18עובדהhigh confidence
No customer represented ten per cent or more of consolidated net sales in 2025, 2024 or 2023, and order backlog levels are minimal because of short cycle times in most of the businesses.
C45טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Management describes customers across semiconductor fabs, circuit board fabs and device assemblers adding capacity in Taiwan, Korea, China and outside China, and says the improvement in the organic outlook over the quarter came from those capacity additions rather than from channel inventory.
against this
- This is the company's own read of its customers' intentions, and it made a similar statement about pull-forward concerns a year earlier - which management itself raised on the call as evidence the pattern held, but which is equally an admission that the same reassurance has been given before.
- It sits against a consumer electronics backdrop management calls weak, a smartphone market it says is down in units, and its own decision not to assume the normal third-quarter seasonal ramp, so the capacity narrative is not corroborated by the end demand the capacity is being built for.
C20עובדהhigh confidence
Total debt was $2,119.4 million against cash of $189.6 million at 30 June 2026, having been $1,625.9 million against $626.5 million at the end of 2025.
C21טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Management put net leverage at 2.9 times on a pro forma basis at the end of the second quarter and expects roughly 2.5 times by the end of 2026.
against this
- The figure is pro forma for a full year of Micromax and EFC earnings the company did not own for a full year, so reported leverage on trailing owned earnings is higher than 2.9 times.
- Reaching 2.5 times depends on the second-half cash generation management describes as typically weighted to the second half and explicitly conditional on metal prices staying at current levels - the same metal prices whose rise consumed working capital in the first half.
C22הסקהhigh confidence
Goodwill of $2,537.4 million and net intangibles of $1,004.9 million together exceed total stockholders' equity of $2,812.7 million, so tangible equity is negative by roughly $730 million.
derivedThe three figures are taken from the condensed consolidated balance sheet at 30 June 2026 in the results release; the subtraction is arithmetic on them. It is the ordinary shape of a company assembled by acquisition, and the research pack's cohort finds the same condition at both named competitors, neither of which has a usable price to tangible book either.
against this
- Negative tangible equity is not by itself a solvency signal for a business with low capital intensity and no asset-backed borrowing - the term loans and notes are cash-flow lending, not secured on tangible assets, and the company's capital expenditure runs under three per cent of sales.
- It does mean any goodwill impairment falls straight through equity, and Quaker Houghton, a company named as a competitor in Specialties, took an $88.8 million goodwill impairment in 2025, so the risk is live in this industry rather than theoretical.
C39עובדהhigh confidence
The 2026 guidance is stated as assuming stable exchange rates and metal prices, and management said the first half carried one-time metal hedge gains whose associated costs had been recorded in the second half of 2025.
שאלות פתוחות
- כמה מהצמיחה היא היקפים. ביולי נאמר שני שלישים בשבבים; באוקטובר נאמר ״בעיקר היקפים״, בלי מספר, ואף דיווח רשמי לא מפצל זאת.
- האם Kuprion, משחת נחושת לשבבי הספק, תניב הכנסות של ממש עד 2027. שני לקוחות סיימו לבדוק אותה; דבר עדיין לא נמדד.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 4 טענות
C10טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
About two-thirds of the semiconductor business's second-quarter organic growth was volume and about a third was precious metal price, because the company does not strip metals out of organic growth in its semiconductor and industrial businesses.
against this
- This materially qualifies the headline organic growth rate, and it exists only as a spoken answer to an analyst - no filing states which businesses are inside the metals adjustment and which are outside it, so the proportion of the 15% consolidated organic figure that is metal price cannot be computed from any document.
- Management gave two slightly different splits in the same call, 'call it, 60% to two-thirds' volume in one answer and 'about two-thirds is volume and one-third is metal price inflation' in another, so the figure is approximate even as stated.
- 2026-10-22editedthird-quarter call did not restate the two-thirds split (C58 carries what was said); evidence for the second quarter remains the only quantified split, so its review date moves to the fourth-quarter results
C34טענת ההנהלהlow confidence
Kuprion is a copper-nanoparticle sintering paste that forms a bulk copper joint at solder reflow temperatures which then remains stable far above them, aimed at power semiconductor die attach and thermal applications where silver sintering is the incumbent.
sourceMacDermid Alpha product literature for Kuprion ActiveCopper…primarySecond quarter 2026 earnings call transcript, held 28 July…primary
against this
- The technical description rests on the company's own product literature and its earnings call. The granted patent behind it, USPTO 11929341, was located but its full text could not be opened, so no independent specification of the mechanism was read.
- Management declined to size the 2027 revenue, saying it is 'dangerous to size these things' because the second plant's timing decides the figure, and the product is at sampling and qualification rather than in production - which is precisely the stage at which the qualification barrier that protects the rest of the portfolio works against a new entrant.
- 2026-10-22editedthird-quarter call reported two customer qualifications for high-volume manufacturing (C61); the mechanism and the immaterial revenue today are unchanged, so the wording stands
C58טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
On the third-quarter 2026 call the chief executive said that, apart from metal price volatility, growth in all businesses came 'from volume primarily', with Micromax rising in higher-value volume while lower-value automotive volume fell; the semiconductor business's growth was described as 'magnified' by higher precious metal prices, and no volume-to-price percentage was given for the quarter.
against this
- The statement is spoken, qualitative and unquantified: it does not repeat the two-thirds volume and one-third metal price split given for the second quarter (C10), so the volume share of the semiconductor business's 24% organic growth is still not a number in any document.
- The chief financial officer said the semiconductor growth was 'magnified' by the year-over-year rise in precious metal prices, which is the metal effect the thesis is worried about, and Micromax, where roughly two-thirds of $140 million of quarterly sales relates to metals, is expressly outside the 'volume' description.
C61טענת ההנהלהlow confidence
Management said two leading data-centre technology customers completed qualification of Kuprion ActiveCopper for high-volume manufacturing in the third quarter, that revenue ramps in 2027 from a first site in Fremont, a second in Connecticut and a third being planned, that capacity for multiple customers arrives in late 2027 or early 2028, and that the product will contribute 'material EBITDA' in 2028.
against this
- No customer is named and no revenue, volume or date is given for 2027; the chief executive described the supply chain as 'not quite caught up', so plant timing, not demand, still decides the figure, as it did when management declined to size 2027 on the second-quarter call (C34).
- A customer qualification is the entry ticket for a product with a long incumbency, not an order; the reconsider path and the invalidation criterion on Kuprion revenue through 2027 stand untouched.
מה ישנה את ההערכה שלנו
- ניטרלית→אטרקטיביתהצמיחה האורגנית מוכחת, במכפיל נמוך יותר
נדרשים כל אלה:
- ○הצמיחה בלי רכישות ובלי השפעת המתכת נשארת מעל 5%, והרווח המתואם מעל 26% מהמכירות בניכוי מתכות, לאורך שנה שלמה.ייבדק בדוח הבא, עד 16 בפברואר
- ○המניה יורדת לכ-30 פעמים הרווח שדווח, ולכן התזה עומדת בין אם מחיקות השווי שאחרי הרכישה הן עלות אמיתית ובין אם לא.בערך $22.04 במחירי היום, 38% מתחת לסגירה האחרונה
- ניטרלית→לא אטרקטיביתהצמיחה האורגנית או המינוף מתהפכים
מספיק אחד מאלה:
- ○החוב עולה מעל 3.5 מונים של הרווח המתואם השנתי, בלי רכישה שמסבירה זאת.ייבדק בדוח הבא, עד 16 בפברואר
- ○האלקטרוניקה צומחת לאט יותר ממתחרתה Qnity שלושה רבעונים ברציפות, או שמשחת הנחושת החדשה Kuprion עדיין מרוויחה כמעט כלום בסוף 2027.ייבדק בדוח הבא, עד 16 בפברואר
נטעה גם אם
- הצמיחה ללא רכישות וללא מתכת יורדת מתחת ל-5% בשני רבעונים ברציפות.
- הרווח המתואם יורד מתחת ל-26% מהמכירות ללא מתכת, במשך שנה שלמה.
מה בהמשך
- 27 באוקטובר 2026 תוצאות הרבעון השלישי של 2026: הצמיחה האורגנית באלקטרוניקה מול 15%, ה-EBITDA המתואם מול תחזית החברה של כ-180 מיליון דולר, והאם צמיחת השבבים נזקפת לכמויות או למחיר המתכות.
כל האירועים הצפויים
- 27 באוקטובר 2026 תוצאות הרבעון השלישי של 2026: הצמיחה האורגנית באלקטרוניקה מול 15%, ה-EBITDA המתואם מול תחזית החברה של כ-180 מיליון דולר, והאם צמיחת השבבים נזקפת לכמויות או למחיר המתכות.
- 10 בדצמבר 2026 השליש הראשון ממענק המניות למנהלים מדצמבר 2025 משתחרר: האם המנהלים מוכרים מיד את המניות שהתפנו; המנכ״ל כבר מכר 170,000 מניות בפברואר 2026, ואף בעל עניין לא קנה בשוק הפתוח.
- פברואר 2027 תוצאות שנת 2026 ודוח ה-10-K לשנת 2026: EBITDA מתואם מול התחזית של 690 עד 710 מיליון דולר, מינוף נטו מול 2.5 שהובטחו, והאם המזומנים הולכים לרכישות חוזרות או לאג״ח של 2028.
- מאי 2027 האסיפה השנתית 2027 והצבעת השכר: האם בעלי המניות שדחו את תוכנית השכר ב-2026 ואילצו לבטל את עסקת Solstice מקבלים את תגובת הדירקטוריון, או שהם דוחפים שוב.
מה קרה מאז
נכתבה
6 בספטמבר
המחיר בעת כתיבת התזה
$35.71
25 בספטמבר
- 22 באוקטוברדוחותהשיחה תיארה את הצמיחה כמונעת מהיקפים, אבל לא נתנה מספרההנהלה אמרה שההיקפים הניעו את הצמיחה, בנפרד ממחיר המתכת, ואישרה שיעורי רווח חזקים והסמכה של Kuprion. אבל חלק ההיקפים עדיין לא כומת, ולכן ההערכה לא השתנתה.
- 21 באוקטוברדוחותהרבעון השלישי עבר את המבחן שלנו; התחזית עלתה וההערכה לא השתנתההאלקטרוניקה צמחה ב-18% בלי רכישות, בשיעור רווח של 28.2%, ותחזית הרווח ל-2026 עלתה, אבל החלוקה בין נפח למחיר המתכת תתברר רק בשיחה.
- 5 באוקטוברבדיקת התזההטיעון בעד ההשקעה מופיע עכשיו מתחת לשורה התחתונהאחרי פיילוט בחמש חברות, הבעלים ביקש להוסיף את הטיעון בעד ההשקעה לכל תזה.
- 4 באוקטוברבדיקת התזהרשימת הבדיקות של הבעלים: מקורות ההכנסה, עלות הצמיחה, ההנהלה, אירועים צפוייםרשימת הבדיקות של הבעלים הראתה שהשיטה שותקת בשאלות מי מנהל את החברה, כמה עולה הצמיחה, מאיפה מגיע הכסף ואילו אירועים צפויים בתאריכים ידועים. בסבב הזה מילאנו את ארבעת הנושאים מתוך דוח הזימון לאסיפה והדוחות.
- 26 בספטמברבדיקת התזהמדדי המחיר נבדקו מחדש על נתוני יוני מהדוחות; ההערכה לא השתנתההנתונים כוללים עכשיו את הרבעון של יוני. המניה עדיין נסחרת בכ-49 פעמים הרווח המדווח, ובין שתי המתחרות הנסחרות ברווח אחרי הפחתות בגין רכישות, ולכן שום דבר בטיעון לא זז.
- 6 בספטמברהתזה נכתבהניטרלית, ביטחון בינונינכתבה ימים אחרי שמכירת החברה ל-Solstice קרסה, כשבעלי המניות של Element Solutions עצמה התנגדו.
מקורות 18
Where this came from
Sources - 18
Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.
- S01primarycompany filing2026-02-18Item 1 business and product descriptions, the named competitor lists, the segment and business-line revenue mix, the customer-concentration and backlog disclosures, the metal content of Assembly Solutions, the tax note's jurisdictional split, and the acquisition and divestiture historybacksC01C18C29C33C43C44C48C52C53
- S02primarycompany filing2026-07-27the income statement and balance sheet, the ex-metals net sales table, the organic growth reconciliation, the adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS reconciliations, and the raised full-year guidancebacksC03C05C08C11C20C23C24C25C27C30C39
- S03primarycompany filing2026-07-28the debt note with maturities and rates, the acquisition purchase prices and their funding, and the segment notebacksC02C19C20C28C47C48C53
- S04primarytranscript2026-07-28Second quarter 2026 earnings call transcript, held 28 July 2026management's prepared remarks on business-line organic growth, Kuprion's plant plan, leverage and capital expenditure; and eight analysts' questions, which produced the admissions that organic growth is not adjusted for metals in the semiconductor and industrial businesses, that share gains partly reflect competitors' inability to finance metal, and that Micromax's disclosed contribution excludes parent-level costs
And for the most part, we don't realize margins on metals.
backsC04C09C10C13C21C30C34C39C41C42C45C46 - S05primarycompany filing2026-02-172025 adjusted EBITDA of $548 million and the original 2026 guidance of $650-670 million, against which the July raise is measuredbacksC11
- S06primarycompany filing2026-08-28the termination itself, the absence of any payment between the parties, and both the chairman's and the chief executive's stated reasonbacksC25C26
- S07primarycompany filing2026-02-24a competitor's own statement that customers require lengthy qualification periods before placing volume orders with a new supplier, its Materials Solutions Division description and $1,323 million of segment revenue, and its naming of Element Solutions as a chemistry competitorbacksC12C16C17
- S08primarycompany filing2026-02-26the Advanced Circuit & Packaging description confirming the same plating and final-finish chemistry sold to the same buyers, $2,112 million of Interconnect Solutions net sales, its naming of Element Solutions as a competitor, and its own reference to price including metals pass-throughbacksC16C17
- S09primarycompany filing2026-04-16TSMC-SoIC and CoWoS as commercially offered advanced packaging services, capital expenditure being spent to expand advanced packaging capacity, and the high performance computing revenue and capital expenditure series behind the driver ratebacksC14C15
- S10primaryvendor data2026-09-26Research pack frozen at content/ESI/research-pack.jsonprice, market capitalisation and enterprise value, the trailing multiples against their six-year medians, the filed competitor cohort's metrics and ranks, short interest from FINRA, the analyst split, insider filings, and the earnings history carrying the adjusted actual beside the filed GAAP figurebacksC02C24C37C40
- S11primaryother2026-09-06MacDermid Alpha product literature for Kuprion ActiveCopper sintering materials Element Solutionsthe product description behind Kuprion, recorded as the company's own marketing because the granted patent behind it could not be opened
excellent alternatives to lead- and lead-free solders, AuSn solder and nanostructured silver for high-power semiconductor applications
backsC34 - S12primarycompany filing2026-08-28the operative terms of the termination - mutual releases, and a filing-fees clause leaving Solstice responsible for the antitrust filing fees, with no break fee or expense reimbursement either way, which is what confirms the release's costless-termination languagebacksC25
- S13primarycompany filing2026-03-23executive officers and tenures, beneficial ownership at March 9, 2026, the 2025 bonus and long-term award metrics, the cancelled 2022 stretch awards and the December 2025 share awards, the Mariposa Capital services fee, the 2024 say-on-pay resultbacksC49C50C51C52
- S14primarycompany filing2026-05-05votes for and against each director and the advisory vote on executive paybacksC49C54
- S15primarycompany filing2026-03-23the executive chairman's retirement from the board at the 2026 annual meeting and the board's reduction to sevenbacksC49
- S16primarycompany filing2023-02-22the 2020 to 2022 income statements and cash flow statements: cost lines, buybacks and dividends, read through the frozen numbers card (content/ESI/financials.json)backsC48C53
- S17primarycompany filing2026-10-21third-quarter sales, organic growth by business, adjusted EBITDA and its margin on ex-metals net sales, free cash flow, debt and cash at 30 September, and the raised 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidancebacksC11C55C56C57
- S18primarytranscript2026-10-22management's prepared remarks on Electronics growth by business, margins, cash flow and leverage, the new organisational structure, Kuprion qualifications and the raised guidance; and ten analysts' questions, which produced the volume statement, the incentive-pay-adjusted incremental margins, the implied fourth quarter and the demand outlook into 2027
the growth has come from volume primarily, and with the exception also of Micromax, where we're seeing an uplift in higher value volume
backsC58C59C60C61C62