← All thesesAEYENeutralLow convictionFriday 30 October 2026עברית

AudioEye

A small company that sells software to make websites usable by disabled people, and to keep their owners out of court.

Our viewNeutral Low conviction
The scores
The profile · 1-4
Growth3/4 →

Revenue grew 15% in 2025 and about 8% in 2026, partly bought; ARR grows 12% with customers up 6%.

Business quality2/4 →

Partner distribution brings 130,000 small customers, but the product is substitutable, advocates reject it and rivals sell the same plug-in.

Financial position3/4 ↑

Net debt about $7.3M against cash from operations of $6.6M, loan due 2030, but covenants were loosened twice in 2026.

Execution record3/4 ↑

43 straight record revenue quarters and EBITDA guides raised, but the 2026 revenue guide was cut to its low half and litigation recurs.

Per share capture3/4 →

Shares up about 17% since 2021 against revenue per share up 48%; pay in shares near 12% of revenue.

Potential2/4 →

A US market near $2.7B at its price, but growth needs enforcement it does not control and AI products with no revenue.

Risk profile2/4 →

One partner at 13% of revenue, an undisclosed active lawsuit, and an FTC precedent against plug-in compliance claims.

Valuation2/4 ↓

At 4.36 times sales the price needs about 13% yearly growth for ten years, above revenue's 8% and ARR's 12%.

Evidence quality3/4 →

Filed figures carry revenue, debt and channels, but the legal-protection case and the AI products rest on management's word.

The bet · 2-3 years
Safe, little upside0.9×

If it works 0.9× · if it fails you keep about 88%.

The Verdict

We rate AudioEye Neutral. It is a mixed business: recurring sales growing about 12% a year with high margins, sold mainly through a strong partner channel, but in a product category advocates and a regulator distrust. After the shares nearly doubled in three days, the price is full: it asks for faster growth than revenue has shown. As a bet it is defensive: the new AI products could add a little, and most of today's value rests on the subscription business alone. We would look again if the price fell or growth sped up.

The long caseIf AI builds more of the web badly, someone has to check and fix it, and AudioEye already sits on those sites.

The evidence under this - 6 claims
C03facthigh confidence
Q3 2026 revenue was $10,963K, up 7%: Partner and Marketplace $6,380K, up 14%, and Enterprise $4,583K, down 1%. Gross margin rose to 83% from 77% and net income was $990K, the first GAAP profit in the series.
historical · Q3 2026written 2026-10-30
C04facthigh confidence
ARR was $43.3M at 30 September 2026, up 12% from $38.7M a year earlier; enterprise is about 41% of it. AudioEye had about 130,000 customers, up 7,000 in a year.
against this
  • ARR is the company's own measure, not audited, and includes month-to-month plans (S01).
  • Customers grew 6% while ARR grew 12%, so growth leans on price and upsell, not new logos.
current state · 2026-09-30written 2026-10-30
C20inferencemedium confidence
At $14.12 the company is worth about $186.4M, 4.36 times trailing revenue of $42.7M. At a 9% yearly return and a sale at 3 times revenue in ten years, revenue must grow about 13.2% a year; at 2 times, about 17.8%.
against this
  • Revenue grew 7% in Q3 2026 and about 8% for the year guided (C03, C06), below 13.2%.
  • ARR grew 12% (C04), close to the test, and management guides about 20% sequential growth for Q4 alone.
current state · 2026-10-29written 2026-10-30
C25facthigh confidence
The FTC's April 2025 final order made accessiBe, a rival seller of an automated plug-in, pay $1M after finding its claim that the plug-in could make any website WCAG-compliant false, misleading or unsubstantiated.
historical · 2025-04written 2026-10-30
C27facthigh confidence
The Overlay Fact Sheet, signed by accessibility practitioners and users, lists AudioEye among overlay products and says full compliance cannot be achieved with an overlay.
against this

AudioEye sells expert audits and custom fixes beside its script (C01), which the fact sheet's argument does not address.

current state · 2026-10-30written 2026-10-30
C29management claimmedium confidence
On 8 October 2026 AudioEye launched Agentic Audits, an AI agent that it says finds up to 50% more high-severity issues than automation, and an SDK MCP for AI coding tools; management called the revenue uplift too early to quantify.
against this

No revenue, pricing or customer count is disclosed for either product.

current state · 2026-10-26written 2026-10-30
01

The company

Most websites have barriers a blind person using a screen reader, or someone who cannot use a mouse, cannot get past. In the US that can bring a lawsuit. AudioEye's software scans a site, fixes common barriers automatically, and keeps watching it. Larger clients also pay for expert audits, custom fixes and help if they are sued.

In October 2026 it added an AI agent that audits sites, and a tool that lets AI coding assistants write accessible code.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C01facthigh confidence
AudioEye sells website accessibility subscriptions: software that tests and automatically fixes common barriers, 24/7 monitoring, expert audits, custom fixes and legal support, sold through a marketplace, partners and a direct sales team. It reports one segment.
current state · 2026-09-30written 2026-10-30
C28management claimlow confidence
AudioEye says its solution gives 3 to 4 times the legal protection of others, built on a dataset of over one million human reviews across more than 100,000 sites over ten years.
against this
  • No outside body measures legal protection by vendor; the figure is the company's own.
  • Overlay-style products are named in a rising share of suits (C26) and the FTC sanctioned a rival's compliance claim (C25).
current state · 2026-10-26written 2026-10-30
C29management claimmedium confidence
On 8 October 2026 AudioEye launched Agentic Audits, an AI agent that it says finds up to 50% more high-severity issues than automation, and an SDK MCP for AI coding tools; management called the revenue uplift too early to quantify.
against this

No revenue, pricing or customer count is disclosed for either product.

current state · 2026-10-26written 2026-10-30

How it makes money

Almost all of it is subscriptions, paid ahead. About 130,000 customers pay an average of about $333 a year. Small businesses arrive through website platforms, agencies and a marketplace, the faster-growing half; larger firms and governments buy directly, and that half is flat as one-off work is run down.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C02facthigh confidence
FY2025 revenue was $40.3M, up 15%: Partner and Marketplace $22.2M and Enterprise $18.1M. Net loss was $3.1M and adjusted EBITDA $9.1M.
historical · FY2025written 2026-10-30
C03facthigh confidence
Q3 2026 revenue was $10,963K, up 7%: Partner and Marketplace $6,380K, up 14%, and Enterprise $4,583K, down 1%. Gross margin rose to 83% from 77% and net income was $990K, the first GAAP profit in the series.
historical · Q3 2026written 2026-10-30
C04facthigh confidence
ARR was $43.3M at 30 September 2026, up 12% from $38.7M a year earlier; enterprise is about 41% of it. AudioEye had about 130,000 customers, up 7,000 in a year.
against this
  • ARR is the company's own measure, not audited, and includes month-to-month plans (S01).
  • Customers grew 6% while ARR grew 12%, so growth leans on price and upsell, not new logos.
current state · 2026-09-30written 2026-10-30
C39facthigh confidence
Deferred revenue was $8.4M at 30 September 2026, and 94% of December's balance was recognised within nine months; subscriptions are generally non-cancelable, though some are month to month.
current state · 2026-09-30written 2026-10-30
C42inferencemedium confidence
ARR of $43.3M over about 130,000 customers is an average of about $333 a customer a year.
against this

Enterprise is 41% of ARR, so most customers pay far less than the average.

current state · 2026-09-30written 2026-10-30
Where the money comes from, stream by stream
StreamShare of sales (FY2025)How it earns it
Partner and Marketplace55%Monthly and annual plans for small businesses, sold through hosting, website-builder and agency partners and AudioEye's own marketplace.
Enterprise45%Larger firms and governments on custom contracts: automated fixes, audits, expert fixes and legal support, plus run-off one-time work.

Who runs it

Kelly Georgevich, finance chief since 2021, became chief executive in May 2026. David Moradi, the previous chief executive, is now executive chairman and runs product; he owns about a fifth of the company, and directors and officers together about a quarter. Insiders bought shares in the open market this year and sold none. The chief executive's bonus targets are not disclosed.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C14facthigh confidence
David Moradi, through Sero Capital and directly, owned 21.2% at 30 April 2026; directors and officers held 25.9% together, and Carr Bettis 5.4%.
current state · 2026-04-30written 2026-10-30
C15facthigh confidence
Kelly Georgevich, finance chief since 2021, became chief executive in May 2026; Moradi, chief executive from 2022, became executive chairman and chief product officer; Matthew Domeyer joined as finance chief in July.
current state · 2026-10-26written 2026-10-30
C16facthigh confidence
Georgevich's new contract pays a $450,000 salary plus 50,000 time-vesting units and 60,000 performance units, 43,333 of them on 2026 targets the committee set and the proxy does not state.
historical · 2026-05written 2026-10-30
C17facthigh confidence
Insiders made 11 open-market purchases and no open-market sales in the year to October 2026; a director bought 3,000 shares at $12.34 on 29 October and Georgevich 16,850 at $5.90 in March.
historical · 2025-11 to 2026-10written 2026-10-30
02

Why it wins, and who could beat it

Why customers come back

Its advantage is how it reaches buyers. Website platforms and partners put AudioEye in front of small businesses that would never hire a consultant, at a price they barely notice. That channel grew 14% in the latest quarter. But it leans on a few partners, one of them 13% of sales, and nothing stops a partner offering a rival's tool instead.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C03facthigh confidence
Q3 2026 revenue was $10,963K, up 7%: Partner and Marketplace $6,380K, up 14%, and Enterprise $4,583K, down 1%. Gross margin rose to 83% from 77% and net income was $990K, the first GAAP profit in the series.
historical · Q3 2026written 2026-10-30
C04facthigh confidence
ARR was $43.3M at 30 September 2026, up 12% from $38.7M a year earlier; enterprise is about 41% of it. AudioEye had about 130,000 customers, up 7,000 in a year.
against this
  • ARR is the company's own measure, not audited, and includes month-to-month plans (S01).
  • Customers grew 6% while ARR grew 12%, so growth leans on price and upsell, not new logos.
current state · 2026-09-30written 2026-10-30
C05facthigh confidence
One customer, with its affiliates and a partnership, was about 13% of 2025 revenue and 15% of 2024 revenue.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-30
C42inferencemedium confidence
ARR of $43.3M over about 130,000 customers is an average of about $333 a customer a year.
against this

Enterprise is 41% of ARR, so most customers pay far less than the average.

current state · 2026-09-30written 2026-10-30

The threat

The FTC fined accessiBe, a rival selling a similar automatic fix, for claiming it made any site compliant. Disability advocates list AudioEye among these tools and say none can do the whole job. Level Access, a private rival, now sells the same bundle. AI coding tools could also write accessible sites from the start, though management says it sees little of that yet.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C25facthigh confidence
The FTC's April 2025 final order made accessiBe, a rival seller of an automated plug-in, pay $1M after finding its claim that the plug-in could make any website WCAG-compliant false, misleading or unsubstantiated.
historical · 2025-04written 2026-10-30
C27facthigh confidence
The Overlay Fact Sheet, signed by accessibility practitioners and users, lists AudioEye among overlay products and says full compliance cannot be achieved with an overlay.
against this

AudioEye sells expert audits and custom fixes beside its script (C01), which the fact sheet's argument does not address.

current state · 2026-10-30written 2026-10-30
C31facthigh confidence
Level Access, a private rival, completed its purchase of UserWay, an automated-fix plug-in maker, in March 2024, combining audits and expert services with automated remediation.
historical · 2024-03written 2026-10-30
C45management claimlow confidence
Asked whether AI tools had brought new rivals, the chief executive said she had not seen much and that nobody could replicate AudioEye's dataset.
against this
  • Level Access bought UserWay to combine automated fixes with audits (C31), and accessiBe still sells.
  • The company's own 10-K says AI may intensify competition and reduce demand (C32).
current state · 2026-10-26written 2026-10-30

The rivals: all private, in-house or listed abroad.

Who else does this, rival by rival
TickerRivalWhere it competesHow far alongPriced against it
PrivateaccessiBePriced against it: PrivateAccessibility subscriptions: automated fixes, monitoring, audits and legal supportOn salePrivate
PrivateLevel Access with UserWayPriced against it: PrivateAccessibility subscriptions: automated fixes, monitoring, audits and legal supportOn salePrivate
Not listedAccessibility consultants and developers fixing the site's own codePriced against it: Not listedAccessibility subscriptions: automated fixes, monitoring, audits and legal supportOn saleNot listed
In-houseAI coding tools and site builders that write accessible code themselvesPriced against it: In-houseAI products: Agentic Audits and the SDK MCPIn researchIn-house
03

How big it could get

How big this could get

The US has about 8 million businesses with employees. If each paid what AudioEye's average customer pays, that is about $2.7B a year, and AudioEye serves under 2% of that count. Almost every site needs the work: an outside survey found failures on 96% of the top million home pages. Europe, governments and the AI products would come on top.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C24facthigh confidence
WebAIM found detectable WCAG failures on 95.9% of the top million home pages in February 2026, up from 94.8%, and 56.1 errors per page, up 10.1%.
historical · 2026-02written 2026-10-30
C40estimatelow confidence
At AudioEye's average price, 8.0 million US employer establishments would pay about $2.7B a year; its 130,000 customers equal about 1.6% of that count.
against this
  • One customer can run many sites and many establishments share one site, so customers and establishments are not the same unit.
  • The average hides a few large enterprise contracts and many cheap marketplace plans.
current state · 2026-09-30written 2026-10-30
C41facthigh confidence
The Census Bureau counted just over 8.0 million US establishments with paid employees in 2022.
historical · 2022written 2026-10-30
04

The results

The numbers

Is it growing?Steady

Sales grew 8.1% over the twelve months to Sep 2026, slower than the 15% in the year to Dec 2025.

Dec 2021: $24.5MDec 2022: $29.9MDec 2023: $31.3MDec 2024: $35.2MDec 2025: $40.3M12 mo to Sep 2026: $42.7M$24.5M$42.7M
Is it profitable?Losing

Operating margin is −4.8%, up from −19% in the year to Dec 2023.

Dec 2021: −63%Dec 2022: −35%Dec 2023: −19%Dec 2024: −9.6%Dec 2025: −4.5%12 mo to Sep 2026: −4.8%−63%−4.8%
Does growth pay off?Pays off

Running costs take 85¢ of each sales dollar, down from 138¢ in the year to Dec 2021.

Dec 2021: 138¢Dec 2022: 111¢Dec 2023: 97¢Dec 2024: 89¢Dec 2025: 83¢12 mo to Sep 2026: 85¢138¢85¢
Does it earn good returns?Poor

Shareholders' money lost 57% a year, up from −113% in the year to Dec 2021.

Dec 2021: −113%Dec 2022: −74%Dec 2023: −68%Dec 2024: −53%Dec 2025: −43%12 mo to Sep 2026: −57%−113%−57%
Is it making cash?Strong

It turned 15% of sales into free cash, $6.51M over the last twelve months.

Dec 2021: −$5.06MDec 2022: −$5.07MDec 2023: $147KDec 2024: $2.60MDec 2025: $4.70M12 mo to Sep 2026: $6.51M−$5.06M$6.51M
Is the balance sheet safe?Light debt

It owes $6.90M more than the cash it holds, about 1.1 years of the cash its operations bring in.

Dec 2021: $19.0MDec 2022: $6.90MDec 2023: $2.51MDec 2024: −$1.17MDec 2025: −$7.69M12 mo to Sep 2026: −$6.90M$19.0M−$6.90M
Are shares being diluted?Diluting

The share count rose 17% in 4.8 years, and pay in shares costs 12% of sales.

Dec 2021: 11.0MDec 2022: 11.5MDec 2023: 11.8MDec 2024: 11.9MDec 2025: 12.4M12 mo to Sep 2026: 13.0M11.0M13.0M
All the numbers

Filed figures from the company's 10-K and 10-Q, read 2026-10-30. Fiscal years end in December.

Dec 2021Dec 2022Dec 2023Dec 2024Dec 202512 mo to Sep 2026
Size and growth
Sales$24.5M$29.9M$31.3M$35.2M$40.3M$42.7M
Sales growth+20%+22%+4.7%+12%+15%+8.1%
Profit
Gross margin75%76%78%79%78%80%
Operating margin−63%−35%−19%−9.6%−4.5%−4.8%
Net margin−58%−35%−19%−12%−7.6%−7.1%
What growth costs, per sales dollar
Research and development22%20%22%14%11%9.3%
Sales and marketing60%46%38%36%37%34%
General and admin57%45%37%38%38%41%
Pay in shares31%15%12%13%12%12%
Capital spending0.3%0.2%0.5%0.4%0.1%0.1%
Cash
Cash from operations−$4.98M−$5.00M$318K$2.73M$4.75M$6.57M
Free cash flow−$5.06M−$5.07M$147K$2.60M$4.70M$6.51M
Balance sheet
Cash and short-term investments$19.0M$6.90M$9.24M$5.65M$5.29M$9.33M
Debt$0$0$6.73M$6.82M$13.0M$16.2M
Net cash$19.0M$6.90M$2.51M−$1.17M−$7.69M−$6.90M
Returns and shares
Shares (diluted)11.0M11.5M11.8M11.9M12.4M13.0M

What growth costs

Sales grew from $24.5M in 2021 to $40.3M in 2025 while costs stayed nearly flat, so the loss shrank year by year. Most of each new dollar of sales is kept. Pay in shares is still large, about 12% of sales.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C33facthigh confidence
Revenue was $24.5M in 2021, $29.9M in 2022, $31.3M in 2023, $35.2M in 2024 and $40.3M in 2025; AudioEye bought ADA Site Compliance for about $7.0M in September 2024.
historical · FY2021-FY2025written 2026-10-30
C34facthigh confidence
In Q3 2026 cost of revenue fell 19% to $1,871K and operating expenses fell 5% to $7.8M; total R&D spend, including $0.4M capitalised, fell 17%. Management credits AI use.
against this

Capitalising $0.4M of R&D a quarter moves cost off the income statement without cutting it.

historical · Q3 2026written 2026-10-30
C09facthigh confidence
Over the four quarters to September 2026 GAAP operating loss was $2.04M and net loss $3.04M, while cash from operations was $6.57M.
historical · TTM to 2026-09-30written 2026-10-30
C35facthigh confidence
Pay in shares was $5.0M over the four quarters to September 2026, about 11.7% of revenue; revenue per diluted share rose from $2.22 in 2021 to $3.29.
historical · FY2021 to TTM 2026-09written 2026-10-30

The last report (26 Oct)

Quarter ended September 2026, filed figures.

7%
Sales growth
against the same quarter a year earlier
2.3%
Growth from the quarter before
against 1.5% the quarter before that
11¢
Operating profit
per dollar of sales

In the third quarter of 2026 sales rose 7% to $11.0M and AudioEye made a profit of $1.0M, its first. Costs fell while sales grew, and management credits using AI in its own work.

Recurring sales, the yearly value of all subscriptions, grew faster, 12% to $43.3M. Legal costs halved from the quarter before, and management expects them to fall again. It narrowed its revenue forecast for the year to $43.6M to $43.8M.

What it did to the thesisIt proved costs can fall while sales grow, which is what the shares now pay for. It did not show faster growth: revenue still trails recurring sales, and legal costs remain the largest thing management adds back.

The quarter in detail

Sales growth from the previous quarter, filed figures.

Earnings per share $0.30 against $0.27 expected; $0.08 as filed, the gap being what the company adds back.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C03facthigh confidence
Q3 2026 revenue was $10,963K, up 7%: Partner and Marketplace $6,380K, up 14%, and Enterprise $4,583K, down 1%. Gross margin rose to 83% from 77% and net income was $990K, the first GAAP profit in the series.
historical · Q3 2026written 2026-10-30
C04facthigh confidence
ARR was $43.3M at 30 September 2026, up 12% from $38.7M a year earlier; enterprise is about 41% of it. AudioEye had about 130,000 customers, up 7,000 in a year.
against this
  • ARR is the company's own measure, not audited, and includes month-to-month plans (S01).
  • Customers grew 6% while ARR grew 12%, so growth leans on price and upsell, not new logos.
current state · 2026-09-30written 2026-10-30
C06management claimmedium confidence
Management guides Q4 2026 revenue of $11.4M to $11.6M and FY2026 of $43.6M to $43.8M, with FY2026 adjusted EBITDA of $13.4M to $13.6M and a Q4 annual pace above $17M.
against this
  • The FY2026 revenue range opened at $43M to $44.5M in March (C07); the narrowed range sits below its midpoint.
  • The EBITDA raise is adjusted, after adding back litigation that recurs (C38).
forwardwritten 2026-10-30
C34facthigh confidence
In Q3 2026 cost of revenue fell 19% to $1,871K and operating expenses fell 5% to $7.8M; total R&D spend, including $0.4M capitalised, fell 17%. Management credits AI use.
against this

Capitalising $0.4M of R&D a quarter moves cost off the income statement without cutting it.

historical · Q3 2026written 2026-10-30
C37management claimmedium confidence
Management says litigation expense fell about 50% from Q2 to Q3 2026 and will fall again in Q4, and declined to discuss the active litigation.
against this

Nine-month litigation expense still rose 76% (C08), and the case is not described in any filing (S04).

forwardwritten 2026-10-30
What management did with the money

It bought a smaller rival for about $7.0M in 2024 with borrowed money, and now plans to buy back up to $15M of shares by October 2027. The lender changed the loan terms to allow it, as long as at least $5.0M of cash and credit stays available.

Insiders in 2026Q3: 5 purchases and 3 sales, from their Form 4 filings.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C12facthigh confidence
The board authorised a $15M buyback through 18 October 2027, replacing the 2025 program, of which $475K was used in the nine months to September 2026.
against this

Cash of $9.3M less the $5.0M liquidity floor (C11) leaves about $4.3M to spend today.

current state · 2026-10-26written 2026-10-30
C33facthigh confidence
Revenue was $24.5M in 2021, $29.9M in 2022, $31.3M in 2023, $35.2M in 2024 and $40.3M in 2025; AudioEye bought ADA Site Compliance for about $7.0M in September 2024.
historical · FY2021-FY2025written 2026-10-30
C11facthigh confidence
The lender amended the loan twice in 2026: on 18 September to let adjusted EBITDA covenants add back litigation within caps, and on 26 October to allow buybacks while liquidity stays at least $5.0M.
historical · 2026-09 to 2026-10written 2026-10-30
05

The price, and where we disagree

In short. Full. The price pays for growth faster than revenue has shown, from a business that only just turned a profit.

Share price
$14.12
close,
Company value for each $1 of sales
4.4
its 6-year normal 2.9

The shares fell from $33.64 in late 2024 to $5.40 in March 2026, then nearly doubled in three days after the latest report. The question is whether the business changed as much as the price.

Demand keeps rising: website accessibility lawsuits grew 27% in 2025, Hawaii passed the first state law covering all private businesses, and US government websites must comply from April 2027. The next test is the full-year report in March 2027.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C18facthigh confidence
The shares fell from $33.64 in November 2024 to $5.40 in March 2026, then rose from $7.42 to $14.12 in the three sessions after the Q3 2026 results.
historical · 2024-11 to 2026-10-29written 2026-10-30
C22facthigh confidence
In April 2026 the Justice Department pushed the government website deadline from 24 April 2026 to 26 April 2027 for large public bodies and to 26 April 2028 for smaller ones.
historical · 2026-04-20written 2026-10-30
C23facthigh confidence
Seyfarth Shaw counted 3,117 website accessibility lawsuits filed in federal court in 2025, up 27% from 2,452 in 2024 and 36% of all ADA Title III suits.
against this

The count excludes state courts and demand letters, so it understates the pressure (S12).

historical · 2025written 2026-10-30
C36management claimmedium confidence
Management says Hawaii's Act 257 is the first state law requiring all private businesses to meet WCAG 2.1 A and AA, with deadlines 24 to 36 months after rules are final.
against this

The rules are not final, and no other state has passed one.

forwardwritten 2026-10-30
C06management claimmedium confidence
Management guides Q4 2026 revenue of $11.4M to $11.6M and FY2026 of $43.6M to $43.8M, with FY2026 adjusted EBITDA of $13.4M to $13.6M and a Q4 annual pace above $17M.
against this
  • The FY2026 revenue range opened at $43M to $44.5M in March (C07); the narrowed range sits below its midpoint.
  • The EBITDA raise is adjusted, after adding back litigation that recurs (C38).
forwardwritten 2026-10-30
The betSafe, little upside
If it works
0.9×
from today's value, at the stated multiple
If it fails
keep 88%
of today's market value: the rest of the company, less its debt
How we read the multiple

With its debt and net of cash, the company costs about $186M. What has to be true:

1. Revenue over the last four quarters was $42.7M, so the price is about 4.4 times sales. 2. A buyer wanting 9% a year, a common yardstick, sells at 3 times sales in ten years. 3. That needs revenue to grow about 13% a year for a decade, against 7% in the latest quarter.

It still lost $2.0M over the last four quarters under accounting rules.

Against its own history. Buyers now pay more per dollar of sales than they usually have, because the market has started paying for profit rather than only for growth.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C20inferencemedium confidence
At $14.12 the company is worth about $186.4M, 4.36 times trailing revenue of $42.7M. At a 9% yearly return and a sale at 3 times revenue in ten years, revenue must grow about 13.2% a year; at 2 times, about 17.8%.
against this
  • Revenue grew 7% in Q3 2026 and about 8% for the year guided (C03, C06), below 13.2%.
  • ARR grew 12% (C04), close to the test, and management guides about 20% sequential growth for Q4 alone.
current state · 2026-10-29written 2026-10-30
C09facthigh confidence
Over the four quarters to September 2026 GAAP operating loss was $2.04M and net loss $3.04M, while cash from operations was $6.57M.
historical · TTM to 2026-09-30written 2026-10-30
C38inferencemedium confidence
Litigation has been added back as non-recurring in 2025 and every 2026 quarter, and 2025 G&A rose partly on $715K more of it, so adjusted EBITDA excludes a cost the company keeps paying.
against this

Management expects it to keep falling (C37); if it ends, the gap closes.

historical · FY2025 to Q3 2026written 2026-10-30
Priced against its rivals

Its rivals have not yet been checked against their own filings, so there is no group to price it against; the price is judged against its own history instead.

The bet: what it pays if it works

The bet is on AudioEye's new AI products: an agent that audits websites and a tool for AI coding assistants. Neither has disclosed sales.

Valued at a fair price, the subscription business alone accounts for most of today's price. If the AI products sell to about one customer in twenty, they add only a little, so the bet is expensive. If they sell nothing, shareholders keep most of what they hold.

AI products: Agentic Audits and the SDK MCP revenue in two to three yearsCustomers paying for an AI add-on neededAt the stated multiple
$500,000about 1.5K at 100% kept0.9×
$2.00M (the big win)about 6.0K at 100% kept0.9×
$5.00Mabout 15.0K at 100% kept1.0×

To pay 2× (a Fair bet) it would need about $51.94M of AI products: Agentic Audits and the SDK MCP revenue (about 156.0K customers paying for an AI add-on); to pay 5× (a Cheap bet), about $191.72M of AI products: Agentic Audits and the SDK MCP revenue (about 575.7K customers paying for an AI add-on), at the same multiple.

Each row is AI products: Agentic Audits and the SDK MCP alone, plus the rest of the company (Accessibility subscriptions: automated fixes, monitoring, audits and legal support) counted at about $165.00M.

The steps it has to take

  • Done Agentic Audits and the SDK MCP launched
  • Not started First revenue or customer count disclosed for the AI products due 2027-03-04
  • Not started ARR growth above 15%, the pace an add-on would show due 2027-12-31
The detail behind the label
Rating
Expensive
the big win's payoff against the 2× and 5× lines
Cheap bet at about
≈ $2.15
85% below the price (close, )
The option
0.4×
what AI products: Agentic Audits and the SDK MCP is worth if it works, against what the price pays for it
The evidence under this - 5 claims
C29management claimmedium confidence
On 8 October 2026 AudioEye launched Agentic Audits, an AI agent that it says finds up to 50% more high-severity issues than automation, and an SDK MCP for AI coding tools; management called the revenue uplift too early to quantify.
against this

No revenue, pricing or customer count is disclosed for either product.

current state · 2026-10-26written 2026-10-30
C42inferencemedium confidence
ARR of $43.3M over about 130,000 customers is an average of about $333 a customer a year.
against this

Enterprise is 41% of ARR, so most customers pay far less than the average.

current state · 2026-09-30written 2026-10-30
C45management claimlow confidence
Asked whether AI tools had brought new rivals, the chief executive said she had not seen much and that nobody could replicate AudioEye's dataset.
against this
  • Level Access bought UserWay to combine automated fixes with audits (C31), and accessiBe still sells.
  • The company's own 10-K says AI may intensify competition and reduce demand (C32).
current state · 2026-10-26written 2026-10-30
C20inferencemedium confidence
At $14.12 the company is worth about $186.4M, 4.36 times trailing revenue of $42.7M. At a 9% yearly return and a sale at 3 times revenue in ten years, revenue must grow about 13.2% a year; at 2 times, about 17.8%.
against this
  • Revenue grew 7% in Q3 2026 and about 8% for the year guided (C03, C06), below 13.2%.
  • ARR grew 12% (C04), close to the test, and management guides about 20% sequential growth for Q4 alone.
current state · 2026-10-29written 2026-10-30
C10facthigh confidence
At 30 September 2026 AudioEye held $9.3M of cash against a $16.6M term loan at SOFR plus 3.25%, repaid $213K a quarter and due March 2030, with a $3.0M revolver undrawn: net debt about $7.3M.
current state · 2026-09-30written 2026-10-30

Where we disagree with the market

The market believes

AudioEye is an AI-driven profit story: earnings growing fast, a buyback, and a stock still cheap on adjusted profit.

We believe

The profit gain is real, but the price asks for faster growth than revenue shows, and the advantage is a sales channel, not a protected product.

Analysts are uniformly positive and the stock has jumped twice this year on profit. But the adjusted profit leaves out legal costs every quarter, and revenue grew only 7%. We could be wrong if recurring sales speed up or the AI products start selling quickly.

What analysts say, and the evidence
Analysts positive
100%
of 3, 1 Oct
Four months earlier
80%
of 5, 1 Jun
The evidence under this - 5 claims
C19facthigh confidence
Six analysts rate the shares a buy and one a hold; the dated series counted 100% positive of 3 analysts on 1 October against 80% of 5 in June. Short interest was 3.1% of float on 15 October.
against this

The panel shrank from five to three while the positive share rose, so coverage left rather than conviction arrived.

current state · 2026-10-15written 2026-10-30
C18facthigh confidence
The shares fell from $33.64 in November 2024 to $5.40 in March 2026, then rose from $7.42 to $14.12 in the three sessions after the Q3 2026 results.
historical · 2024-11 to 2026-10-29written 2026-10-30
C20inferencemedium confidence
At $14.12 the company is worth about $186.4M, 4.36 times trailing revenue of $42.7M. At a 9% yearly return and a sale at 3 times revenue in ten years, revenue must grow about 13.2% a year; at 2 times, about 17.8%.
against this
  • Revenue grew 7% in Q3 2026 and about 8% for the year guided (C03, C06), below 13.2%.
  • ARR grew 12% (C04), close to the test, and management guides about 20% sequential growth for Q4 alone.
current state · 2026-10-29written 2026-10-30
C38inferencemedium confidence
Litigation has been added back as non-recurring in 2025 and every 2026 quarter, and 2025 G&A rose partly on $715K more of it, so adjusted EBITDA excludes a cost the company keeps paying.
against this

Management expects it to keep falling (C37); if it ends, the gap closes.

historical · FY2025 to Q3 2026written 2026-10-30
C27facthigh confidence
The Overlay Fact Sheet, signed by accessibility practitioners and users, lists AudioEye among overlay products and says full compliance cannot be achieved with an overlay.
against this

AudioEye sells expert audits and custom fixes beside its script (C01), which the fact sheet's argument does not address.

current state · 2026-10-30written 2026-10-30
06

What could go wrong, and how we would know

The risks

  • One partner is big One partner was 13% of 2025 sales; losing or repricing it would cut growth at once.
  • Regulators distrust automatic fixes The FTC fined a rival for overstating what such fixes do, and advocates name AudioEye among those tools.
  • An undisclosed lawsuit Legal costs were large all year, and management will not describe the case behind them.
  • Debt on a small company It owes more than it holds in cash, and buybacks would spend cash the loan rules watch.
  • A violent stock The shares have halved and doubled within two years, so the price can move far on one report.
The evidence under this - 6 claims
C05facthigh confidence
One customer, with its affiliates and a partnership, was about 13% of 2025 revenue and 15% of 2024 revenue.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-30
C25facthigh confidence
The FTC's April 2025 final order made accessiBe, a rival seller of an automated plug-in, pay $1M after finding its claim that the plug-in could make any website WCAG-compliant false, misleading or unsubstantiated.
historical · 2025-04written 2026-10-30
C27facthigh confidence
The Overlay Fact Sheet, signed by accessibility practitioners and users, lists AudioEye among overlay products and says full compliance cannot be achieved with an overlay.
against this

AudioEye sells expert audits and custom fixes beside its script (C01), which the fact sheet's argument does not address.

current state · 2026-10-30written 2026-10-30
C37management claimmedium confidence
Management says litigation expense fell about 50% from Q2 to Q3 2026 and will fall again in Q4, and declined to discuss the active litigation.
against this

Nine-month litigation expense still rose 76% (C08), and the case is not described in any filing (S04).

forwardwritten 2026-10-30
C10facthigh confidence
At 30 September 2026 AudioEye held $9.3M of cash against a $16.6M term loan at SOFR plus 3.25%, repaid $213K a quarter and due March 2030, with a $3.0M revolver undrawn: net debt about $7.3M.
current state · 2026-09-30written 2026-10-30
C18facthigh confidence
The shares fell from $33.64 in November 2024 to $5.40 in March 2026, then rose from $7.42 to $14.12 in the three sessions after the Q3 2026 results.
historical · 2024-11 to 2026-10-29written 2026-10-30
What we still do not know
  • What the active lawsuit is about, who brought it, and what it could cost.
  • Whether AudioEye's customers are sued less than sites with no tool at all.
  • How the AI products are priced and how many customers have bought them.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C37management claimmedium confidence
Management says litigation expense fell about 50% from Q2 to Q3 2026 and will fall again in Q4, and declined to discuss the active litigation.
against this

Nine-month litigation expense still rose 76% (C08), and the case is not described in any filing (S04).

forwardwritten 2026-10-30
C26inferencelow confidence
A UsableNet count, as reported by Accessibility.Works, found 28% of 2025 digital accessibility lawsuits targeted sites using overlay widgets, up from 25% in 2024.
against this
  • The copy is a remediation firm that competes with overlays, and UsableNet's own report was reached only through it.
  • The count does not separate AudioEye's customers from accessiBe's or UserWay's.
historical · 2025written 2026-10-30
C29management claimmedium confidence
On 8 October 2026 AudioEye launched Agentic Audits, an AI agent that it says finds up to 50% more high-severity issues than automation, and an SDK MCP for AI coding tools; management called the revenue uplift too early to quantify.
against this

No revenue, pricing or customer count is disclosed for either product.

current state · 2026-10-26written 2026-10-30

What would change our view

  1. Neutral→AttractiveA price that asks only for today's growth

    It needs all of:

    • ○The company is valued at 3 times the last year's sales, with recurring sales still growing.about ≈$9.72 today, 31% below the last close
    • ○Recurring sales grow 10% or more from a year earlier at the next quarter-end.checked at the next results, due by 4 Mar
  2. Neutral→AttractiveProof the growth and the profit are real

    It needs all of:

    • ○Recurring sales grow 15% or more from a year earlier in a 2027 quarter.checked at the next results, due by 4 Mar
    • ○Profit under accounting rules reaches a tenth of sales over four quarters, legal costs included.checked at the next results, due by 4 Mar
We would also be wrong if
  • A court or regulator finds AudioEye's automatic fixes or legal-protection claims misleading.
  • Legal costs top $2M in any half of 2027.
  • The partner that was 13% of sales leaves or cuts its contract.

What is coming

  • 4 March 2027 Q4 2026 results: Whether revenue lands at $11.4M or more, ARR keeps its 12% growth and litigation falls as promised.
Every dated event ahead
  • 4 March 2027 Q4 2026 results: Whether revenue lands at $11.4M or more, ARR keeps its 12% growth and litigation falls as promised.
  • 26 April 2027 Justice Department deadline for large state and local governments: Whether government demand shows up in Enterprise revenue.
  • 18 October 2027 End of the $15M buyback authorisation: How many shares were actually bought back with the cash the business made.
Since we wrote this
Written
30 Oct
Price the thesis read
$14.12
29 Oct
  • 30 OctThesis writtenNeutral, low convictionWritten four days after the Q3 2026 results, after the shares rose from $7.42 to $14.12 in three sessions.

Sources 17

Where this came from

Sources - 17

Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.

  1. S01primarycompany filing2026-03-12
    business description, channels, customer concentration, competition, legal framework, the term loan, acquisitions, revenue by channel, employees
    backsC01C02C05C09C13C21C32C33C35C38C39
  2. S02primarycompany release2026-03-05
    FY2025 results and the first FY2026 guide
    AudioEye expects revenue of between $10.5M and $10.6M for the first quarter of 2026 and between $43M and $44.5M for the full year 2026.
    backsC02C07C28C43
  3. S03primarycompany release2026-10-26
    Q3 2026 results, ARR, customers, the new AI products, the Q4 guide and the adjusted EBITDA reconciliation
    ARR as of September 30, 2026 increased sequentially to $43.3M from $42.3M as of June 30, 2026.
    backsC03C04C06C08C12C29C30C34C38C40C42C43
  4. S04primarycompany filing2026-10-26
    revenue by channel, the balance sheet, the term loan and its two amendments, the buyback, deferred revenue, the share count, the May executive changes
    backsC01C03C09C10C11C12C13C15C20C35C39C43
  5. S05primarytranscript2026-10-26
    ARR by channel, litigation expense trend, the AI products, the studies, Hawaii's law, analyst questions on AI rivals and the buyback
    Our solution already delivers 3 to 4x the legal protection of others.
    backsC04C06C28C29C30C34C36C37C45
  6. S06primarytranscript2026-08-13
    Q2 adjusted EBITDA, the litigation answer, the new finance chief
    We cannot comment any further on active litigation, but I think you can expect a significant additional cash generation with litigation trending down in second half of 2026
    backsC15C37C44
  7. S07primarytranscript2026-03-05
    the FY2026 plan and the reason for the lighter revenue guide
    We do anticipate higher ARR growth in this, so kind of low to mid-teens on the ARR side.
    read, but no claim rests on it
  8. S08primarycompany filing2026-05-13
    beneficial ownership, directors' records, the May 2026 employment agreements and pay
    backsC14C15C16
  9. S09secondaryvendor data2026-10-30
    Research pack (FMP market tier, FINRA short interest, Form 4 feed), frozen at content/AEYE/research-pack.json
    content/AEYE/research-pack.json
    daily closes, the analyst split and its series, insider trades, short interest
    backsC07C17C18C19C20C44
  10. S10primaryregulator2025-04-22
    the regulator's finding on an automated plug-in's compliance claims
    accessWidget did not make all user websites WCAG-compliant and these claims were false, misleading, or unsubstantiated.
    backsC25
  11. S11primaryindustry data2026-03-31
    the share of the web that fails, and errors per page
    95.9% of home pages had detected WCAG 2 failures. This number increased from 94.8% in 2025
    backsC24
  12. S12primaryindustry data2026-03-01
    the federal lawsuit count by year
    Plaintiffs filed 3,117 website accessibility lawsuits in federal court in 2025 - a 27% increase from 2024.
    backsC23
  13. S13primaryregulator2026-04-20
    the new government website deadlines
    The compliance date for State and local government entities with a total population of 50,000 or more is extended from April 24, 2026, to April 26, 2027.
    backsC22
  14. S14primarygovernment data2024-02-01
    the number of US employer establishments
    In 2022, the number of establishments with paid employees increased to just over 8.0 million
    backsC40C41
  15. S15primaryother2026-10-30
    advocates' position on overlays, and the list naming AudioEye
    While the use of an overlay may improve compliance with a handful of provisions in major accessibility standards, full compliance cannot be achieved with an overlay.
    backsC27
  16. S16secondaryother2026-01-15
    the share of suits naming overlay sites
    According to UsableNet’s 2025 report, 28% (up from 25% in 2024) of all digital accessibility lawsuits targeted websites using these overlays
    backsC26
  17. S17primarycompany release2024-03-20
    a rival combining audits with automated fixes
    Level Access, the leading provider of digital accessibility solutions, has completed its acquisition of UserWay, a pioneer in accessibility AI technologies.
    backsC31
Rendered from content/AEYE/thesis.json · thesis reviewed 2026-10-30. This page explains a company; it does not say what to pay, when to buy or how much.