Netflix
שירות הטלוויזיה במנוי הגדול בעולם: אפליקציה אחת ותשלום חודשי אחד תמורת סדרות וסרטים שרובם בבעלותה, במשקי בית ב-190 מדינות.
הציון שלנוניטרלית ביטחון בינוני
הציונים
ציונים · 1-4
צמיחה3/4 ↓
ההכנסות גדלו ב-15.9% ב-2025 בצמיחה אורגנית, אבל שעות הצפייה גדלו ב-2% והצמיחה בצפון אמריקה נחתכה לחצי, ל-10%, בתוך שלושה רבעונים.
איכות העסק3/4 ↓
משקי הבית משלמים ל-Netflix כ-48% יותר מאשר ל-Disney+ על אותו שירות, אבל YouTube מחזיקה ב-14.2% מזמן הצפייה בטלוויזיה בארה״ב, מול 7.8% של Netflix.
איתנות פיננסית4/4 →
חוב נטו של 5.2 מיליארד דולר מול תזרים מזומנים חופשי שנתי צפוי של כ-12.5 מיליארד, מסגרת אשראי של 3 מיליארד דולר שטרם נוצלה, וללא צורך בכסף מבחוץ.
יכולת ביצוע3/4 →
יעדי 2025 הושגו והרבעון השני של 2026 יצא בהתאם לתחזית, אבל הדיווח הולך ומצטמצם: מספר המנויים כבר לא מפורסם, ושעות הצפייה יפורסמו אחת לשנה מ-2027.
ערך לבעלי המניות4/4 →
מספר המניות ירד ב-2.7% בשישה רבעונים, אין אג״ח להמרה, ושתי העסקאות שולמו במזומן. אבל הרכישות החוזרות במחצית הראשונה נעשו במחיר ממוצע של כ-90 דולר, מול 71.36 דולר היום.
פוטנציאל2/4 →
יש מקום רב לצמוח בשוק שבו Netflix מחזיקה ב-7.8% מזמן הצפייה בטלוויזיה בארה״ב. אבל פרסום הוא תקציב שמישהו אחר מחליט עליו, ושום דבר מזה לא נחתם בחוזה.
רמת סיכון3/4 ↓
אין תלות בלקוח גדול ויש ארבעה אזורים, אבל מוצר אחד נושא את כל הסיכון, ודרישות מס ברזילאיות עלו ל-Netflix 729 מיליון דולר במזומן במחצית הראשונה של 2026.
תמחור3/4 ↑
מכפיל של כ-24 על הרווח הצפוי ב-2026 משקף את התוכנית כשהיא מצליחה, ולא את התרחיש הטוב שמעבר לה.
חוזק הראיות3/4 →
הטענות המרכזיות הן עובדות מדוחות של ארבע חברות בלתי תלויות, ובנוסף נתוני Nielsen. אבל מסגרת המחיר נשענת על התחזית של ההנהלה עצמה, ואין נתון על נטישת מנויים.
ההימור · שנתיים עד שלוש
בטוח, פוטנציאל מוגבל0.9×
אם ההימור מצליח: פי 0.9 · אם נכשל: נשארים כ-79%.
השורה התחתונה
הציון שלנו: ניטרלית. Netflix היא שירות הטלוויזיה במנוי הגדול בעולם, והעסק טוב: עלות כל סדרה מתחלקת על מאות מיליוני משקי בית, ולכן היא יכולה לגבות יותר מהמתחרות ולהשאיר יותר רווח. המניה ירדה בחדות, וחלק מהירידה מוצדק, כי YouTube תופסת הרבה יותר מזמן הצפייה בארה״ב, והמזומן שמושקע בתוכן גדל מהר יותר מהעלות שנרשמת ברווח. המחיר הוגן, לא זול. כהימור היא בטוחה, עם פוטנציאל מוגבל: המנויים לבדם שומרים על רוב מחיר המניה היום, והפרסום לא יכסה את השאר. ההערכה תלויה בכך שההוצאה על תוכן תתמתן כפי שהובטח.
הטיעון לטווח הארוךאם המפרסמים ילכו בעקבות הצופים אל הסטרימינג, השירות שיש לו מאות מיליוני צופים יוכל למכור להם פרסומות, נוסף על דמי המנוי שהוא כבר גובה.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 10 טענות
C03עובדהmedium confidence
The last paid-membership figure Netflix published is from the Q4 2025 letter: it 'crossed the 325M paid memberships milestone during the quarter'. Quarterly membership reporting stopped in 2025.
C11אומדןmedium confidence
Netflix's FY2025 revenue of $45,183.0M over the 325M paid memberships it last reported is about $11.6 a month, roughly 48% above the $7.81 Disney reports for Disney+ worldwide.
derived$45,183.0M divided by 325M is $139.0 a year, or $11.58 a month. $11.58 divided by $7.81 is 1.48. The membership figure is a year-end milestone rather than an average, so the true per-member figure on an average base is slightly higher. Derived from C02, C03 and C10.
against this
- Netflix's base is a year-end 'crossed 325M' milestone and Disney's is a fiscal-year average, so the two denominators are not constructed the same way. Using an average Netflix base would widen the gap rather than narrow it, but the mismatch is real.
- Disney counts a bundle subscriber once for Disney+ and once for Hulu and allocates the revenue between them, which depresses the stated Disney+ figure relative to what the household actually pays Disney. A household paying for the Disney+/Hulu bundle is worth more to Disney than $7.81.
C43עובדהhigh confidence
The shares closed at $71.36 on 23 September 2026, down 41.9% over 252 sessions and 42.8% below the 252-day high of $124.86, with a trailing price of about 22.2 times earnings against a six-year median of 41.7.
- 2026-09-24editedRe-read from the research pack of 2026-09-24 (close of 2026-09-23): the refresh trigger 'the next research pack' fired.
C13עובדהhigh confidence
Nielsen measured YouTube at a record 14.2% of United States television watch-time in July 2026, the largest share of any distributor and 5.0 points ahead of the second, against Netflix at 7.8%, level with FOX behind NBCUniversal-Versant and Disney.
against this
- The Media Distributor Gauge groups by company, so Disney's 8.9% and NBCU-Versant's 9.2% include broadcast and cable networks as well as streaming. Among streaming platforms alone Netflix is second, behind YouTube; Nielsen's July Gauge puts Disney's streaming services at 4.7%.
- July 2026 carried the final weeks of the FIFA World Cup on FOX and Telemundo, which lifted broadcast and Peacock; part of every other distributor's share loss that month is the tournament rather than a trend.
- Nielsen states that methodological updates to The Gauge will be implemented in autumn 2026, with back data provided, so the series is not guaranteed to remain consistent.
- 2026-09-24editedRe-sourced: its refresh trigger fired when Nielsen published the July 2026 Gauge on 10 September; YouTube rose to a record 14.2% and Netflix fell to 7.8%.
C05עובדהhigh confidence
In H1 2026 Netflix added $9,774.4M of cash to content assets, up 32.3% on H1 2025's $7,385.5M, while the amortisation charged against profit was $8,529.2M, up 11.4% on $7,655.2M.
C27אומדןmedium confidence
At $71.36 the equity is about $304B and enterprise value about $309B, so Netflix's own 2026 guide of about $16.1B of operating profit and about $12.6B of net profit puts the price at about $24 for each $1 of net profit and about $19 of enterprise value for each $1 of operating profit.
derived4,261.3M Q2 2026 diluted shares at $71.36 is $304.1B; plus $14,309.3M of debt less $9,127.9M of cash is $309.3B. The $51.2B revenue mid-point at the guided 31.5% margin is $16,128M of operating profit; less H1 2026 interest expense of $437.8M doubled, plus about $200M of other income, taxed at H1's 18.2%, is about $12,640M, or $2.98 on about 4,240M shares. Derived from C20, C24 and C26 and the pack's closing price of 23 September 2026.
against this
- It runs entirely on management's own guide, which is a management claim and not a filed figure. If the 31.5% margin is missed by one point the net figure falls about $420M and the multiple rises by about 0.8.
- The pack's own trailing figure is 22.2 times earnings against a six-year median of 41.7, so on the comparison a screen actually makes the shares look far cheaper than this frame does. Both are true and they differ because one is trailing and reported and the other forward and guided.
- Analysts' consensus earnings of $4.55 for 2028 and $6.46 for 2030 would put the same price at 15.7 and 11.0 times, so the frame is demanding only if growth beyond 2026 disappoints those estimates.
- 2026-09-24editedRe-struck at the 2026-09-23 close of $71.36: the thesis's 12% drift trigger fired. The consensus figures in the counter-evidence are re-read from the new pack.
C08אומדןmedium confidence
Trailing diluted earnings per share of $3.18 include about $0.53 from the termination fee after tax, so at $71.36 the price is about $27 for each $1 of profit excluding the fee against about $22 including it.
derivedFiled diluted EPS of $0.59, $0.56, $1.23 and $0.80 for Q3 2025 to Q2 2026 sum to $3.18. The $2.8B fee taxed at the H1 2026 effective rate of 18.2% is about $2,290M, or $0.53 on the 4,279.8M average diluted shares of H1 2026. $71.36 divided by $3.18 is 22.4; divided by $2.65 is 26.9. Derived from C07, C09 and the pack's closing price of 23 September 2026.
against this
- The fee was taxed at whatever rate applied to it specifically, which Netflix does not disclose; the 18.2% blended half-year rate is an approximation and the true after-tax figure could differ by several cents a share.
- Netflix reports no adjusted earnings figure at all, so there is no company-stated 'ex-items' number to check this against - the restatement is entirely ours, and a reader taking Netflix's own GAAP presentation at face value would see only the $3.18.
- 2026-09-24editedRe-struck at the 2026-09-23 close of $71.36: the thesis's 12% drift trigger fired.
C06אומדןmedium confidence
Management's 2026 guide of about 1.1 times cash content spend to amortisation, with amortisation up about 10%, implies second-half cash content spend of roughly $10.1B against $9.71B in H2 2025 - growth of about 4.0%, after 32.3% in the first half. Q3 added $5,159.8M, up 10.9% on $4,653.9M, so the fourth quarter has to come in near $4.94B, down about 2.4%.
against this
- Management pre-announced the shape in January 2026, before the year began: content amortisation growth would be higher in the first half than the second 'due to the timing of title launches', and operating income growth would therefore be higher in the second half. So a front-loaded first half is what was described, and the 4.0% is the arithmetic of a guide management may simply revise.
- The ratio is a rounded 'approximately 1.1x' and the amortisation growth a rounded 'approximately 10%'. At 1.15 times and 11% amortisation growth the implied second-half spend is about $11.2B, which is 15% growth rather than 4% - the sensitivity to two rounded inputs is large.
- 2026-10-20editedQ3 2026 additions to content assets grew 10.9%, above single digits; the guide now needs a fall of about 2.4% in Q4
C61אומדןlow confidence
If advertising earned the company's guided 31.5% operating margin and 18.2% tax rate, the roughly $3B guided for 2026 would be about $0.8B of the roughly $12.6B of net profit the 2026 guide implies, leaving about $11.8B for the membership business. Netflix discloses no margin for advertising.
sourceNetflix Q4 2025 shareholder letter (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1)primaryNetflix Q2 2026 shareholder letter (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1)primary
against this
A young ad business usually earns less than the company margin while it builds its sales team and ad technology, so the membership business may earn more than this and advertising less.
C20טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Netflix guides 2026 revenue of about $51.1B, up 13%, at a 31.5% operating margin, free cash flow of approximately $12.0B (cut from $12.5B, mainly for a real estate transaction expected to close in Q4) and advertising revenue of about $2.7B (cut from about $3B because some ad product capabilities rolled out slightly slower than expected).
sourceNetflix Q3 2026 Letter to Shareholders (Exhibit 99.1 to the…primaryNetflix Q4 2025 shareholder letter (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1)primaryNetflix Q2 2026 shareholder letter (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1)primary
against this
- The 20 October letter cut two of the four targets set in July: advertising from about $3B to about $2.7B, and free cash flow from $12.5B to $12.0B. Revenue is $51.1B against a July range of $51.0B-$51.4B, 0.2% below its mid-point, so only the margin target was held as written.
- The free-cash-flow cut is attributed to a real estate transaction, not to the operating business, but Netflix gives no figure for it, so how much of the $0.5B is operating is not disclosed.
- The implied Q4 operating margin is now 26.0%, including about 120 basis points from the headcount reductions; the nine-month 33.5% margin beat the quarterly forecasts mainly on the timing of expenses, which management itself says, so part of Q3's 34.6% is borrowed from Q4.
- 2026-10-20editedQ3 2026 letter of 20 October cut the advertising guide to about $2.7B and the free-cash-flow guide to $12.0B, and moved revenue to $51.1B; margin held at 31.5%
החברה
Netflix מוכרת דבר אחד: מנוי חודשי לאפליקציה שמזרימה סדרות, סרטים ושידורים חיים לכל מסך עם חיבור לאינטרנט. החברה מדווחת על עסק אחד, ובדוח השנתי שלה לא מופיע שם של אף מתחרה.
את רוב מה שהמנויים צופים בו Netflix הזמינה, והיא הבעלים שלו. ביוני 2026 היו רשומים במאזן סדרות וסרטים בשווי 33.84 מיליארד דולר, ו-10.31 מיליארד מהם עדיין בהפקה ועוד לא מכניסים כלום.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 3 טענות
C01עובדהhigh confidence
Netflix operates as one reportable segment and says its revenue is derived primarily from monthly membership fees for streaming; FY2025 revenue was $45,183.0M.
C42עובדהhigh confidence
Netflix's FY2025 10-K names no competitor by name anywhere in Item 1; it lists classes - linear television, streaming providers including pirate ones, video gaming providers, open content platform providers and social media.
C37עובדהhigh confidence
Netflix carried $33,837.6M of content assets at 30 June 2026, of which $10,313.4M was in production and had earned nothing, and $24,039.2M of total content obligations at 31 December 2025 - $17.0B of which is not recognised on the balance sheet.
ממה היא מרוויחה
המנויים משלמים מדי חודש; ההכנסות ב-2025 הגיעו ל-45.18 מיליארד דולר, עלייה של 15.9%. הפרסום הוא פעילות חדשה וקטנה: מעל 1.5 מיליארד דולר ב-2025, כ-3.4% מההכנסות, ועכשיו התחזית ל-2026 היא כ-2.7 מיליארד דולר, אחרי שהופחתה מכ-3 מיליארד.
ההוצאה הגדולה היא על תוכן: משלמים עליו במזומן בזמן ההפקה, ובדוחות הוא נרשם כהוצאה לאורך השנים שבהן צופים בו. כשהמזומן שיוצא גדול מהסכום שנרשם, הרווח המדווח נראה טוב יותר מהמזומן.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 5 טענות
C01עובדהhigh confidence
Netflix operates as one reportable segment and says its revenue is derived primarily from monthly membership fees for streaming; FY2025 revenue was $45,183.0M.
C02עובדהhigh confidence
FY2025 revenue was $45,183.0M, up 15.9%; operating income was $13,326.6M, a 29.5% margin against 26.7% in FY2024; net income was $10,981.2M.
C31עובדהmedium confidence
FY2025 advertising revenue was over $1.5B, more than 2.5 times FY2024, in Netflix's third year of selling advertising; it was about 3.4% of FY2025 revenue.
C20טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Netflix guides 2026 revenue of about $51.1B, up 13%, at a 31.5% operating margin, free cash flow of approximately $12.0B (cut from $12.5B, mainly for a real estate transaction expected to close in Q4) and advertising revenue of about $2.7B (cut from about $3B because some ad product capabilities rolled out slightly slower than expected).
sourceNetflix Q3 2026 Letter to Shareholders (Exhibit 99.1 to the…primaryNetflix Q4 2025 shareholder letter (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1)primaryNetflix Q2 2026 shareholder letter (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1)primary
against this
- The 20 October letter cut two of the four targets set in July: advertising from about $3B to about $2.7B, and free cash flow from $12.5B to $12.0B. Revenue is $51.1B against a July range of $51.0B-$51.4B, 0.2% below its mid-point, so only the margin target was held as written.
- The free-cash-flow cut is attributed to a real estate transaction, not to the operating business, but Netflix gives no figure for it, so how much of the $0.5B is operating is not disclosed.
- The implied Q4 operating margin is now 26.0%, including about 120 basis points from the headcount reductions; the nine-month 33.5% margin beat the quarterly forecasts mainly on the timing of expenses, which management itself says, so part of Q3's 34.6% is borrowed from Q4.
- 2026-10-20editedQ3 2026 letter of 20 October cut the advertising guide to about $2.7B and the free-cash-flow guide to $12.0B, and moved revenue to $51.1B; margin held at 31.5%
C04עובדהhigh confidence
FY2025 content amortisation charged against profit was $16,422.2M, against $17,096.6M of cash added to content assets - a ratio of 1.041 times, after 1.060 in FY2024 and 0.884 in FY2023.
פירוט מקורות ההכנסה
| מקור | משקל במכירות (2025) | איך |
|---|---|---|
| ארה״ב וקנדה | 44.2% | מנויים חודשיים; מכירות הפרסום של תוכנית הפרסום נכללות באותו נתון אזורי. |
| אירופה, המזרח התיכון ואפריקה | 32.1% | מנויים חודשיים במחיר שנקבע בכל מדינה בנפרד, ופרסום בשווקים שבהם יש תוכנית פרסום. |
| אמריקה הלטינית | 11.9% | מנויים חודשיים במחירים מקומיים נמוכים יותר; הצמיחה המדווחת נשארת כאן מאחורי הצמיחה בנטרול מטבע יותר מאשר בכל אזור אחר. |
| אסיה-פסיפיק | 11.8% | מנויים חודשיים במחירים הנמוכים ביותר מבין ארבעת האזורים; בסין החברה אינה פועלת. |
ההנהלה
טד סרנדוס, שבנה את התוכן המקורי של Netflix, וגרג פיטרס, שניהל את המוצר, מכהנים במשותף כמנכ״לים מאז 2023; ספנסר נוימן סמנכ״ל הכספים מאז 2019. בעלי העניין מחזיקים כ-1%, ברובם באופציות. הבונוס השנתי שלהם נקבע לפי המכירות ושיעור הרווח, והמניות שהם מקבלים לפי ביצועי המניה מול השוק. אף רכיב בשכר לא קשור למזומן שמושקע בהפקת תוכן.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 3 טענות
C55עובדהhigh confidence
Netflix's executive officers at 16 April 2026 were co-chief executives Ted Sarandos (co-chief executive since 2020, chief content officer 2000 to January 2023) and Greg Peters (co-chief executive since January 2023, at Netflix since 2008, chief product officer from 2017 and chief operating officer from 2020), chief financial officer Spencer Neumann (since January 2019), chief legal officer David Hyman and chief global affairs officer Clete Willems; co-founder Reed Hastings became non-executive chairman on 17 April 2025 and did not stand for re-election at the 2026 meeting.
C56עובדהhigh confidence
At 6 April 2026 the 16 directors and executive officers as a group beneficially owned 52,413,364 shares, 1.24%, of which 27,326,326 were options; Reed Hastings held 37,759,062 including 16,595,546 options, the largest insider; Ted Sarandos held 5,719,962 including 5,380,770 options and Greg Peters 2,747,038 including 2,570,510. Netflix has one class of common stock.
C57עובדהhigh confidence
Netflix's 2025 annual cash bonus, at a target of 200% of salary, paid on currency-neutral revenue (35%) and currency-neutral operating margin (65%) and paid out at 117.57% of target; long-term awards were half RSUs vesting quarterly over three years and half PSUs paying on three-year shareholder return against the S&P 500, with target at the 55th percentile; each co-chief executive's 2025 long-term target was $31.0M.
against this
- No metric pays on free cash flow or on cash spent on content, so the H1 2026 jump in content cash (C05) costs the bonus nothing while it lifts no reported margin.
- The 2024 PSUs' second tranche vested at 200% of target on a 92nd-percentile return to 2025, before the shares fell 41.9% over the following year (C43).
היתרון התחרותי, ומי מאיים עליו
למה הלקוחות נשארים
סדרה עולה אותו דבר להפיק, בין אם 10 מיליון משקי בית יכולים לצפות בה ובין אם 325 מיליון. ב-2025 Netflix רשמה ברווח עלויות תוכן של 16.42 מיליארד דולר והפיצה אותן על כל בסיס המנויים שלה, ולכן כל משק בית נושא רק חלק קטן ממה שמתחרה קטן יותר משלם על מערך תוכן דומה.
זה בא לידי ביטוי במחיר. Netflix מכניסה כ-11.6 דולר בחודש לכל מנוי, מול 7.81 דולר ש-Disney מדווחת על Disney+ בעולם: כ-48% יותר, ובסיס המנויים שלה גדול ביותר מכפליים.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 4 טענות
C03עובדהmedium confidence
The last paid-membership figure Netflix published is from the Q4 2025 letter: it 'crossed the 325M paid memberships milestone during the quarter'. Quarterly membership reporting stopped in 2025.
C04עובדהhigh confidence
FY2025 content amortisation charged against profit was $16,422.2M, against $17,096.6M of cash added to content assets - a ratio of 1.041 times, after 1.060 in FY2024 and 0.884 in FY2023.
C10עובדהhigh confidence
Disney's FY2025 10-K reports Disney+ at 131.6M paid subscribers and average monthly revenue per paid subscriber of $7.81 worldwide for the year ended 27 September 2025, with Hulu at 64.1M and $12.36 for its subscription-only tier.
C11אומדןmedium confidence
Netflix's FY2025 revenue of $45,183.0M over the 325M paid memberships it last reported is about $11.6 a month, roughly 48% above the $7.81 Disney reports for Disney+ worldwide.
derived$45,183.0M divided by 325M is $139.0 a year, or $11.58 a month. $11.58 divided by $7.81 is 1.48. The membership figure is a year-end milestone rather than an average, so the true per-member figure on an average base is slightly higher. Derived from C02, C03 and C10.
against this
- Netflix's base is a year-end 'crossed 325M' milestone and Disney's is a fiscal-year average, so the two denominators are not constructed the same way. Using an average Netflix base would widen the gap rather than narrow it, but the mismatch is real.
- Disney counts a bundle subscriber once for Disney+ and once for Hulu and allocates the revenue between them, which depresses the stated Disney+ figure relative to what the household actually pays Disney. A household paying for the Disney+/Hulu bundle is worth more to Disney than $7.81.
האיום
YouTube היא המתחרה המרכזית. היא ממלאת את אותה שעת ערב על אותו מסך ללא תשלום, הכניסה 40.37 מיליארד דולר מפרסום ב-2025 ומחזיקה בנתח הגדול ביותר מזמן הצפייה בטלוויזיה בארה״ב. הנתח של Netflix נמוך מרמתו לפני שנה כבר חודשיים ברציפות.
Warner Bros., ש-Netflix ניסתה לרכוש ולא הצליחה, עוברת לחברת Paramount Skydance, אם כי תביעה משפטית מעכבת את העסקה.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 5 טענות
C12עובדהhigh confidence
Alphabet's FY2025 10-K reports YouTube advertising revenue of $40,367M, up from $36,147M in 2024 and $31,510M in 2023 - 89% of Netflix's entire FY2025 revenue, from advertising alone.
C13עובדהhigh confidence
Nielsen measured YouTube at a record 14.2% of United States television watch-time in July 2026, the largest share of any distributor and 5.0 points ahead of the second, against Netflix at 7.8%, level with FOX behind NBCUniversal-Versant and Disney.
against this
- The Media Distributor Gauge groups by company, so Disney's 8.9% and NBCU-Versant's 9.2% include broadcast and cable networks as well as streaming. Among streaming platforms alone Netflix is second, behind YouTube; Nielsen's July Gauge puts Disney's streaming services at 4.7%.
- July 2026 carried the final weeks of the FIFA World Cup on FOX and Telemundo, which lifted broadcast and Peacock; part of every other distributor's share loss that month is the tournament rather than a trend.
- Nielsen states that methodological updates to The Gauge will be implemented in autumn 2026, with back data provided, so the series is not guaranteed to remain consistent.
- 2026-09-24editedRe-sourced: its refresh trigger fired when Nielsen published the July 2026 Gauge on 10 September; YouTube rose to a record 14.2% and Netflix fell to 7.8%.
C15הסקהmedium confidence
Netflix's measured share of United States television time is now below its year-earlier level in two consecutive months: Nielsen put it at 7.9% in June 2026 against 8.3% in June 2025 and 7.8% in July 2026 against 8.8% in July 2025, after 8.0% in May 2026 against 7.5% a year earlier.
sourceNielsen, The Gauge and Media Distributor Gauge, May 2026primaryNielsen, The Gauge and Media Distributor Gauge, June 2026primaryNielsen, The Gauge and Media Distributor Gauge, July 2026primaryNielsen, Media Distributor Gauge, June 2025primaryNielsen, Media Distributor Gauge, July and August 2025primary
against this
- June and July 2026 were distorted by the FIFA World Cup, which drove broadcast to its first June share increase since The Gauge began and lifted FOX and Peacock again in July; June and July 2025 had no tournament. Some of the year-over-year fall is the comparison rather than Netflix.
- Netflix's absolute viewing rose in June 2026; only its share did not. Nielsen's July text names no Netflix figure at all, so the 7.8% is read off its chart.
- Nielsen is changing the Gauge's method this autumn and says it will provide back data, so the next reading and the year-earlier figure it is compared with may both be restated.
- 2026-09-24editedRe-derived on the June and July 2026 Gauge charts and Nielsen's own 2025 releases: Netflix's share is now below its year-earlier level in two consecutive months, which the claim did not say before.
C07עובדהhigh confidence
Warner Bros. Discovery terminated its amended merger agreement with Netflix on 27 February 2026 to accept Paramount Skydance, and Paramount Skydance paid Netflix a $2.8B termination fee on WBD's behalf, recorded in interest and other income in Q1 2026.
C29עובדהhigh confidence
Warner Bros. Discovery's Q2 2026 10-Q says the Writers Guild of America West and East sued to block the Paramount Skydance merger under Section 7 of the Clayton Act, and that on 24 July 2026 defendants agreed not to complete it until the earlier of five days after a merits determination or 1 June 2027.
המתחרות: GOOGL, GOOGL, PSKY, ועוד אחת: פרטית, פיתוח פנימי של לקוח או נסחרת בחו״ל.
פירוט המתחרים
| סימול | מתחרה | תחומי התחרות | שלב | בסיס להשוואה |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | YouTube (Alphabet)בסיס להשוואה: אותו מוצר | מנויים | כבר נמכר | אותו מוצר |
| YouTube (Alphabet), מול המפרסמים | פרסום במסלול עם הפרסומות | כבר נמכר | ||
| PSKY | HBO Max ואולפני הקולנוע והטלוויזיה של Warner Bros., תחת Paramount Skydanceבסיס להשוואה: אותו מוצר | מנויים | הוכרז | אותו מוצר |
| לא נסחרות בבורסה | שירותי צפייה פיראטייםבסיס להשוואה: לא נסחרות בבורסה | מנויים | כבר נמכר | לא נסחרות בבורסה |
פוטנציאל הצמיחה
גודל ההזדמנות
בסוף 2025 היו בעולם 1,654 מיליון חיבורי אינטרנט קבועים בפס רחב, 669.8 מיליון מהם בסין, שבה Netflix לא פועלת. אילו כל אחד מהשאר היה משלם כמו מנוי של Netflix, זה היה מסתכם בכ-137 מיליארד דולר בשנה, לעומת 45.2 מיליארד דולר ש-Netflix הכניסה ב-2025.
הסטרימינג הוא כבר 49.0% מזמן הצפייה בטלוויזיה בארה״ב והנתח ממשיך לעלות, אבל YouTube, לא Netflix, מחזיקה בנתח הגדול ביותר ממנו.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 5 טענות
C34עובדהmedium confidence
The World Bank's ITU-sourced series counts 1,654 million fixed broadband subscriptions worldwide at end-2025, of which 669.8 million are in China, a market Netflix does not serve.
against this
- The China figure is a 2024 observation while the world total is 2025, so subtracting one from the other slightly overstates the non-China base.
- A fixed broadband subscription is not a household and not a television: it excludes the mobile-only households that are most of Netflix's remaining growth in Asia-Pacific and counts business connections that will never buy a subscription.
C11אומדןmedium confidence
Netflix's FY2025 revenue of $45,183.0M over the 325M paid memberships it last reported is about $11.6 a month, roughly 48% above the $7.81 Disney reports for Disney+ worldwide.
derived$45,183.0M divided by 325M is $139.0 a year, or $11.58 a month. $11.58 divided by $7.81 is 1.48. The membership figure is a year-end milestone rather than an average, so the true per-member figure on an average base is slightly higher. Derived from C02, C03 and C10.
against this
- Netflix's base is a year-end 'crossed 325M' milestone and Disney's is a fiscal-year average, so the two denominators are not constructed the same way. Using an average Netflix base would widen the gap rather than narrow it, but the mismatch is real.
- Disney counts a bundle subscriber once for Disney+ and once for Hulu and allocates the revenue between them, which depresses the stated Disney+ figure relative to what the household actually pays Disney. A household paying for the Disney+/Hulu bundle is worth more to Disney than $7.81.
C02עובדהhigh confidence
FY2025 revenue was $45,183.0M, up 15.9%; operating income was $13,326.6M, a 29.5% margin against 26.7% in FY2024; net income was $10,981.2M.
C35עובדהhigh confidence
Nielsen measured streaming at 49.0% of total United States television watch-time in July 2026, against broadcast at 19.5% and cable at 18.7%, after 48.6% in May and 48.5% in June 2026.
sourceNielsen, The Gauge and Media Distributor Gauge, May 2026primaryNielsen, The Gauge and Media Distributor Gauge, June 2026primaryNielsen, The Gauge and Media Distributor Gauge, July 2026primary
- 2026-09-24editedRe-sourced: its refresh trigger fired with the July 2026 Gauge; streaming rose to 49.0%.
C13עובדהhigh confidence
Nielsen measured YouTube at a record 14.2% of United States television watch-time in July 2026, the largest share of any distributor and 5.0 points ahead of the second, against Netflix at 7.8%, level with FOX behind NBCUniversal-Versant and Disney.
against this
- The Media Distributor Gauge groups by company, so Disney's 8.9% and NBCU-Versant's 9.2% include broadcast and cable networks as well as streaming. Among streaming platforms alone Netflix is second, behind YouTube; Nielsen's July Gauge puts Disney's streaming services at 4.7%.
- July 2026 carried the final weeks of the FIFA World Cup on FOX and Telemundo, which lifted broadcast and Peacock; part of every other distributor's share loss that month is the tournament rather than a trend.
- Nielsen states that methodological updates to The Gauge will be implemented in autumn 2026, with back data provided, so the series is not guaranteed to remain consistent.
- 2026-09-24editedRe-sourced: its refresh trigger fired when Nielsen published the July 2026 Gauge on 10 September; YouTube rose to a record 14.2% and Netflix fell to 7.8%.
מי כבר התחייב
Netflix חותמת על מה ש-YouTube בנתה: יוצרי תוכן כמו Ms. Rachel וגם Stokes Twins, פודקאסטים בווידאו דרך iHeartMedia, וערוצי TF1 של צרפת בתוך המנוי. יש לה גם משחקי National Football League בחג ההודיה ובחג המולד. אף אחת מהעסקאות האלה לא חושפת מחיר או תקופה.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 2 טענות
C17עובדהhigh confidence
Netflix has signed open-platform creators including Ms. Rachel, Mark Rober, Danny Go!, Salish & Jordan Matter, the Stokes Twins, Alan Chikin Chow, Nick DiGiovanni, Mythical and Sean Evans, video podcasts through iHeartMedia, lifestyle video from Conde Nast, Hearst and People, and carries TF1's channels inside the French subscription.
C52עובדהhigh confidence
Netflix has an expanded agreement with the National Football League covering a week-one game in Q3 2026, a Thanksgiving Eve game and NFL Christmas Gameday in Q4 2026 and a final-week contest in Q1 2027, and will carry two Major League Baseball events and the Tyson Fury versus Anthony Joshua fight.
התוצאות
המספרים
היא צומחת?בקצב יציב
המכירות צמחו ב-15% ב-12 החודשים שהסתיימו בספטמבר 2026, בערך בקצב של 16% בשנה שהסתיימה בדצמבר 2025.
היא רווחית?מאוד
שיעור הרווח התפעולי עומד על 31%, לעומת 21% בשנה שהסתיימה בדצמבר 2023.
הצמיחה משתלמת?משתלמת
ההוצאות התפעוליות אוכלות 19 סנט מכל דולר מכירות, לעומת 21 סנט בשנה שהסתיימה בדצמבר 2021.
התשואה על ההון גבוהה?גבוהה מאוד
כל דולר שהושקע בעסק מניב 31% בשנה אחרי מס, לעומת 19% בשנה שהסתיימה בדצמבר 2021.
היא מייצרת מזומנים?הרבה
23% מהמכירות הפכו לתזרים מזומנים חופשי, 11.4 מיליארד דולר ב-12 החודשים האחרונים.
המאזן איתן?חוב נמוך
החוב עולה ב-6.91 מיליארד דולר על המזומנים שבקופה, כ-0.6 שנות תזרים מהפעילות השוטפת.
בעלי המניות מדוללים?לא, מספר המניות יורד
מספר המניות ירד ב-6.7% ב-2.8 שנים, ותגמול מבוסס מניות עולה 1.1% מהמכירות.
כל המספרים
נתונים מדוחות ה-10-K וה-10-Q של החברה, נכון ל-21 באוקטובר 2026. שנת הכספים של החברה מסתיימת בדצמבר.
| דצמבר 2021 | דצמבר 2022 | דצמבר 2023 | דצמבר 2024 | דצמבר 2025 | 12 חודשים עד ספטמבר 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| גודל וצמיחה | ||||||
| מכירות | $29.7B | $31.6B | $33.7B | $39.0B | $45.2B | $49.7B |
| צמיחת המכירות | +19% | +6.5% | +6.7% | +16% | +16% | +15% |
| רווח | ||||||
| שיעור הרווח הגולמי | 42% | 39% | 42% | 46% | 48% | 51% |
| שיעור הרווח התפעולי | 21% | 18% | 21% | 27% | 29% | 31% |
| שיעור הרווח הנקי | 17% | 14% | 16% | 22% | 24% | 30% |
| עלות הצמיחה, לכל דולר מכירות | ||||||
| מחקר ופיתוח | 7.7% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.8% |
| מכירות ושיווק | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.3% |
| הנהלה וכלליות | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.3% |
| תגמול מבוסס מניות | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.1% |
| השקעות הוניות | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.9% |
| מזומנים | ||||||
| תזרים מפעילות שוטפת | $393M | $2.03B | $7.27B | $7.36B | $10.1B | $12.3B |
| תזרים מזומנים חופשי | −$132M | $1.62B | $6.93B | $6.92B | $9.46B | $11.4B |
| מאזן | ||||||
| מזומנים והשקעות לזמן קצר | $6.06B | $6.08B | $7.14B | $9.58B | $9.06B | $8.22B |
| חוב | $15.4B | $14.4B | $14.5B | $15.6B | $14.5B | $15.1B |
| מזומן נטו | −$9.34B | −$8.27B | −$7.40B | −$6.00B | −$5.40B | −$6.91B |
| תשואות ומניות | ||||||
| תשואה על ההון המושקע | 19% | 14% | 17% | 24% | 28% | 31% |
| מספר המניות (בדילול מלא) | - | - | 4.49B | 4.39B | 4.34B | 4.20B |
עלות הצמיחה
הצמיחה הפכה את Netflix לרווחית יותר: כל דולר חדש של מכירות עולה פחות בעלויות תוכן שנרשמות ברווח, ואילו טכנולוגיה, שיווק והנהלה נשארים ביחס יציב. הבעיה היא המזומן: השנה היא משלמת על תוכן מהר יותר משהיא רושמת אותו כהוצאה, ולכן הרווח מקדים את המזומן.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 2 טענות
C54עובדהhigh confidence
Per sales dollar, cost of revenues fell from 60.6 cents in FY2022 to 51.5 in FY2025 and 50.9 over the four quarters to June 2026, while technology and development (the line Netflix tags as research and development, the same figure) moved from 8.6 to 7.5 and 7.7 cents, marketing from 8.0 to 7.3 and 7.4, general and administrative from 5.0 to 4.2 and 4.4, and stock pay from 1.8 to 0.8 and 1.0; operating margin rose from 17.8% to 29.5% and 29.7%.
sourceNetflix Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 31 December 2024primaryNetflix Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 31 December 2025primaryNetflix Form 10-Q, quarter ended 30 June 2026primary
against this
- Cash added to content assets grew 32.3% in H1 2026 against 11.4% for the amortisation charged to cost of revenues (C05), so the income-statement leverage is running ahead of the cash.
- Stock pay per sales dollar rose from 0.7 cents in FY2024 to 1.0 over the four quarters to June 2026 (C41).
C05עובדהhigh confidence
In H1 2026 Netflix added $9,774.4M of cash to content assets, up 32.3% on H1 2025's $7,385.5M, while the amortisation charged against profit was $8,529.2M, up 11.4% on $7,655.2M.
הדוח האחרון (16 ביולי)
הרבעון שהסתיים ביוני 2026, לפי הדוחות.
13%
צמיחת המכירות
לעומת הרבעון המקביל אשתקד
2.5%
צמיחה לעומת הרבעון הקודם
לעומת 1.7% ברבעון שלפני כן
33¢
רווח תפעולי
לכל דולר מכירות
הרבעון של ספטמבר הגיע לכל מה שהובטח: ההכנסות עלו ב-11.8%, ומכל דולר הכנסות נשארו 34.6 סנט כרווח תפעולי, בסיוע תזמון ההוצאות. המזומן שהושקע בתוכן עלה ב-10.9%, עדיין מהר יותר מההכנסות.
אחר כך הפחיתה Netflix את יעד הפרסום ל-2026 לכ-2.7 מיליארד דולר, מכ-3 מיליארד, ואת יעד תזרים המזומנים החופשי ל-12.0 מיליארד דולר, מ-12.5 מיליארד, בעיקר בגלל מכירת נכס. את יעד שיעור הרווח, 31.5%, השאירה כפי שהיה.
מה זה אומר על התזההדוח חצה את המבחן שלנו. ההכנסות ושיעור הרווח עמדו ברף, אבל ההוצאה על תוכן צמחה מהר מהמקווה ושני יעדים הופחתו. שום דבר בטיעון לא נשבר, והחברה התקרבה לקו האזהרה שלנו בפרסום, ולכן ההערכה נשארת ניטרלית.
הרבעון בפירוט
צמיחת המכירות לעומת הרבעון הקודם, לפי הדוחות.
רווח למניה $0.80, לעומת תחזית של $0.79; בדוח עצמו $0.80, בלי התאמות.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 4 טענות
C63עובדהhigh confidence
Netflix's Q3 2026 revenue was $12,874M, up 11.8% (11% excluding currency), down from 13.4% in Q2; operating margin was 34.6% against 28.2% a year earlier, ahead of its forecast mainly because of the timing of expenses; diluted EPS was $0.87. Additions to content assets were $5,159.8M, up 10.9%, and nine-month additions $14,934.2M, up 24.0%.
- 2026-10-21editedThe Q3 call landed after the 20 October review and was read; the search note no longer says management commentary is unread
C20טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Netflix guides 2026 revenue of about $51.1B, up 13%, at a 31.5% operating margin, free cash flow of approximately $12.0B (cut from $12.5B, mainly for a real estate transaction expected to close in Q4) and advertising revenue of about $2.7B (cut from about $3B because some ad product capabilities rolled out slightly slower than expected).
sourceNetflix Q3 2026 Letter to Shareholders (Exhibit 99.1 to the…primaryNetflix Q4 2025 shareholder letter (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1)primaryNetflix Q2 2026 shareholder letter (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1)primary
against this
- The 20 October letter cut two of the four targets set in July: advertising from about $3B to about $2.7B, and free cash flow from $12.5B to $12.0B. Revenue is $51.1B against a July range of $51.0B-$51.4B, 0.2% below its mid-point, so only the margin target was held as written.
- The free-cash-flow cut is attributed to a real estate transaction, not to the operating business, but Netflix gives no figure for it, so how much of the $0.5B is operating is not disclosed.
- The implied Q4 operating margin is now 26.0%, including about 120 basis points from the headcount reductions; the nine-month 33.5% margin beat the quarterly forecasts mainly on the timing of expenses, which management itself says, so part of Q3's 34.6% is borrowed from Q4.
- 2026-10-20editedQ3 2026 letter of 20 October cut the advertising guide to about $2.7B and the free-cash-flow guide to $12.0B, and moved revenue to $51.1B; margin held at 31.5%
C21טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Management guides 2026 content amortisation up about 10% and a cash content spend to amortisation ratio of about 1.1 times, a guide it repeated on 20 October; it told investors in January 2026 that amortisation growth would be front-loaded into the first half.
sourceNetflix Q3 2026 Letter to Shareholders (Exhibit 99.1 to the…primaryNetflix Q4 2025 shareholder letter (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1)primaryNetflix Q2 2026 shareholder letter (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1)primaryNetflix Q2 2026 earnings call, question sectionprimary
against this
- The comparable FY2025 outturn was 1.041 times, so the guide is already a step up before the H1 2026 outturn of 1.146 times is considered.
- On the Q2 2026 call Ted Sarandos framed the same guide as discipline - 'we grow the content spend slower than revenue' - while describing content expense, the amortisation line, and not the cash. Both statements are true and only one of them is what leaves the bank.
- After nine months the ratio is 1.17 times ($14,934.2M added against $12,764.7M amortised), so holding the full-year 1.1 times needs fourth-quarter additions of about $4.94B, 2.4% below the fourth quarter of 2025 ($5,057.2M derived from FY2025 and nine-month cash flows).
- 2026-10-20editedQ3 2026 letter repeats the 1.1 times guide; nine-month ratio is 1.17 times, so the fourth quarter has to fall
C06אומדןmedium confidence
Management's 2026 guide of about 1.1 times cash content spend to amortisation, with amortisation up about 10%, implies second-half cash content spend of roughly $10.1B against $9.71B in H2 2025 - growth of about 4.0%, after 32.3% in the first half. Q3 added $5,159.8M, up 10.9% on $4,653.9M, so the fourth quarter has to come in near $4.94B, down about 2.4%.
against this
- Management pre-announced the shape in January 2026, before the year began: content amortisation growth would be higher in the first half than the second 'due to the timing of title launches', and operating income growth would therefore be higher in the second half. So a front-loaded first half is what was described, and the 4.0% is the arithmetic of a guide management may simply revise.
- The ratio is a rounded 'approximately 1.1x' and the amortisation growth a rounded 'approximately 10%'. At 1.15 times and 11% amortisation growth the implied second-half spend is about $11.2B, which is 15% growth rather than 4% - the sensitivity to two rounded inputs is large.
- 2026-10-20editedQ3 2026 additions to content assets grew 10.9%, above single digits; the guide now needs a fall of about 2.4% in Q4
לאן הלך הכסף
במחצית הראשונה היא רכשה בחזרה 66.8 מיליון מניות ב-6.02 מיליארד דולר, בכ-90 דולר למניה. קודם לכן גייסה מימון בחוב של 42.2 מיליארד דולר כדי לקנות את Warner Bros. במזומן; העסקה נפלה, ו-Netflix קיבלה 2.8 מיליארד דולר דמי ביטול.
בעלי עניין ברבעון השני של 2026: 62 קניות ו-59 מכירות, לפי הדיווחים שלהם ל-SEC (Form 4).
הראיות (באנגלית) · 3 טענות
C25עובדהhigh confidence
Netflix repurchased 66,832,533 shares for $6,015.0M in H1 2026, an average of about $90.00 a share, of which $4,705.7M came in Q2 2026 - its largest repurchase quarter - with about $27.1B of authorisation left.
C28עובדהhigh confidence
Netflix arranged $34B of bridge facility commitments for the Warner Bros. acquisition and raised them by $8.2B to $42.2B on 19 January 2026 when the deal became all cash at $27.75 a WBD share, and paused its share buyback to accumulate cash for it.
C07עובדהhigh confidence
Warner Bros. Discovery terminated its amended merger agreement with Netflix on 27 February 2026 to accept Paramount Skydance, and Paramount Skydance paid Netflix a $2.8B termination fee on WBD's behalf, recorded in interest and other income in Q1 2026.
המחיר, ואיפה אנחנו חלוקים על השוק
בקצרה. הוגן לעסק טוב. לא זול: הרווח של השנה שעברה והמזומן של השנה הנוכחית מנופחים שניהם בגלל דמי ביטול חד-פעמיים, ולכן המחיר האמיתי גבוה ממה שנראה במבט ראשון.
מחיר המניה
$71.36
שער סגירה,
מכפיל הרווח
22.2
המקובל בשש השנים האחרונות: 41.7
המניה כבר רחוקה מאוד מהשיא שלה, ולכן המחיר אינו ההסתייגות המרכזית; המזומן הוא. לפי תחזית ההנהלה, ההוצאה על תוכן צריכה לרדת בכ-2.4% ברבעון הרביעי, אחרי עלייה של 10.9% ברבעון השלישי. המבחן הבא הוא הדוח השנתי בינואר.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 4 טענות
C43עובדהhigh confidence
The shares closed at $71.36 on 23 September 2026, down 41.9% over 252 sessions and 42.8% below the 252-day high of $124.86, with a trailing price of about 22.2 times earnings against a six-year median of 41.7.
- 2026-09-24editedRe-read from the research pack of 2026-09-24 (close of 2026-09-23): the refresh trigger 'the next research pack' fired.
C06אומדןmedium confidence
Management's 2026 guide of about 1.1 times cash content spend to amortisation, with amortisation up about 10%, implies second-half cash content spend of roughly $10.1B against $9.71B in H2 2025 - growth of about 4.0%, after 32.3% in the first half. Q3 added $5,159.8M, up 10.9% on $4,653.9M, so the fourth quarter has to come in near $4.94B, down about 2.4%.
against this
- Management pre-announced the shape in January 2026, before the year began: content amortisation growth would be higher in the first half than the second 'due to the timing of title launches', and operating income growth would therefore be higher in the second half. So a front-loaded first half is what was described, and the 4.0% is the arithmetic of a guide management may simply revise.
- The ratio is a rounded 'approximately 1.1x' and the amortisation growth a rounded 'approximately 10%'. At 1.15 times and 11% amortisation growth the implied second-half spend is about $11.2B, which is 15% growth rather than 4% - the sensitivity to two rounded inputs is large.
- 2026-10-20editedQ3 2026 additions to content assets grew 10.9%, above single digits; the guide now needs a fall of about 2.4% in Q4
C21טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Management guides 2026 content amortisation up about 10% and a cash content spend to amortisation ratio of about 1.1 times, a guide it repeated on 20 October; it told investors in January 2026 that amortisation growth would be front-loaded into the first half.
sourceNetflix Q3 2026 Letter to Shareholders (Exhibit 99.1 to the…primaryNetflix Q4 2025 shareholder letter (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1)primaryNetflix Q2 2026 shareholder letter (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1)primaryNetflix Q2 2026 earnings call, question sectionprimary
against this
- The comparable FY2025 outturn was 1.041 times, so the guide is already a step up before the H1 2026 outturn of 1.146 times is considered.
- On the Q2 2026 call Ted Sarandos framed the same guide as discipline - 'we grow the content spend slower than revenue' - while describing content expense, the amortisation line, and not the cash. Both statements are true and only one of them is what leaves the bank.
- After nine months the ratio is 1.17 times ($14,934.2M added against $12,764.7M amortised), so holding the full-year 1.1 times needs fourth-quarter additions of about $4.94B, 2.4% below the fourth quarter of 2025 ($5,057.2M derived from FY2025 and nine-month cash flows).
- 2026-10-20editedQ3 2026 letter repeats the 1.1 times guide; nine-month ratio is 1.17 times, so the fourth quarter has to fall
C63עובדהhigh confidence
Netflix's Q3 2026 revenue was $12,874M, up 11.8% (11% excluding currency), down from 13.4% in Q2; operating margin was 34.6% against 28.2% a year earlier, ahead of its forecast mainly because of the timing of expenses; diluted EPS was $0.87. Additions to content assets were $5,159.8M, up 10.9%, and nine-month additions $14,934.2M, up 24.0%.
- 2026-10-21editedThe Q3 call landed after the 20 October review and was read; the search note no longer says management commentary is unread
ההימורבטוח, פוטנציאל מוגבל
אם ההימור מצליח
0.9×
מהשווי היום, במכפיל שצוין
אם ההימור נכשל
נשארים 79%
מהשווי בשוק היום: שאר החברה, בניכוי החוב שלה
איך לקרוא את המכפיל
מכפיל של כ-22 על הרווח של השנה האחרונה, הרבה מתחת ל-42 שמקובל אצל Netflix. אבל כ-0.53 דולר למניה מאותו רווח היו דמי הביטול של 2.8 מיליארד דולר שקיבלה כשעסקת Warner Bros. נפלה. בלעדיהם המכפיל הוא כ-27.
לפי התחזית של Netflix עצמה ל-2026 המכפיל הוא כ-24, ולכן הקונה עדיין צריך צמיחה מעבר ל-2026, אם כי פחות מאשר באוגוסט. אותם דמי ביטול מסבירים את רוב העלייה בתחזית המזומן של השנה; המזומן הבסיסי קרוב לתחזית הראשונית, 11 מיליארד דולר.
מול ההיסטוריה שלה. זולה בהרבה מהמקובל אצלה בכל המדדים. אבל המקובל הזה נקבע כשצמחה מהר יותר ולפני ש-YouTube הפכה למובילה, ולכן חלק מהפער מוצדק.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 4 טענות
C27אומדןmedium confidence
At $71.36 the equity is about $304B and enterprise value about $309B, so Netflix's own 2026 guide of about $16.1B of operating profit and about $12.6B of net profit puts the price at about $24 for each $1 of net profit and about $19 of enterprise value for each $1 of operating profit.
derived4,261.3M Q2 2026 diluted shares at $71.36 is $304.1B; plus $14,309.3M of debt less $9,127.9M of cash is $309.3B. The $51.2B revenue mid-point at the guided 31.5% margin is $16,128M of operating profit; less H1 2026 interest expense of $437.8M doubled, plus about $200M of other income, taxed at H1's 18.2%, is about $12,640M, or $2.98 on about 4,240M shares. Derived from C20, C24 and C26 and the pack's closing price of 23 September 2026.
against this
- It runs entirely on management's own guide, which is a management claim and not a filed figure. If the 31.5% margin is missed by one point the net figure falls about $420M and the multiple rises by about 0.8.
- The pack's own trailing figure is 22.2 times earnings against a six-year median of 41.7, so on the comparison a screen actually makes the shares look far cheaper than this frame does. Both are true and they differ because one is trailing and reported and the other forward and guided.
- Analysts' consensus earnings of $4.55 for 2028 and $6.46 for 2030 would put the same price at 15.7 and 11.0 times, so the frame is demanding only if growth beyond 2026 disappoints those estimates.
- 2026-09-24editedRe-struck at the 2026-09-23 close of $71.36: the thesis's 12% drift trigger fired. The consensus figures in the counter-evidence are re-read from the new pack.
C08אומדןmedium confidence
Trailing diluted earnings per share of $3.18 include about $0.53 from the termination fee after tax, so at $71.36 the price is about $27 for each $1 of profit excluding the fee against about $22 including it.
derivedFiled diluted EPS of $0.59, $0.56, $1.23 and $0.80 for Q3 2025 to Q2 2026 sum to $3.18. The $2.8B fee taxed at the H1 2026 effective rate of 18.2% is about $2,290M, or $0.53 on the 4,279.8M average diluted shares of H1 2026. $71.36 divided by $3.18 is 22.4; divided by $2.65 is 26.9. Derived from C07, C09 and the pack's closing price of 23 September 2026.
against this
- The fee was taxed at whatever rate applied to it specifically, which Netflix does not disclose; the 18.2% blended half-year rate is an approximation and the true after-tax figure could differ by several cents a share.
- Netflix reports no adjusted earnings figure at all, so there is no company-stated 'ex-items' number to check this against - the restatement is entirely ours, and a reader taking Netflix's own GAAP presentation at face value would see only the $3.18.
- 2026-09-24editedRe-struck at the 2026-09-23 close of $71.36: the thesis's 12% drift trigger fired.
C22עובדהhigh confidence
FY2025 operating cash flow was $10,149.3M and free cash flow $9.5B, against $7,361.4M and $6.9B in FY2024; the 2026 free-cash-flow guide was 'roughly $11B' in January 2026 and 'approximately $12.5B' in July 2026.
C23הסקהmedium confidence
The $1.5B increase in the 2026 free-cash-flow guide is close to the $2.8B termination fee net of the cash tax paid on it, so underlying 2026 free cash flow is near the roughly $11B guided before the fee arrived.
derivedJanuary's guide of roughly $11B predates the 27 February 2026 termination; July's is approximately $12.5B, a $1.5B move. The Q2 2026 letter attributes part of that quarter's cash-flow fall to 'higher cash tax payments due in part to the Warner Bros. termination fee'. Derived from C07, C20 and C22.
against this
- The two guides are eleven weeks and two quarters apart and other things moved in between: the roughly $700M Brazilian deposit landed in 2026, currency moved, and the guide is stated to one decimal place. Attributing the whole $1.5B to the fee net of tax is a reconciliation, not a disclosure.
- Netflix never states the cash tax paid on the fee, so the split between the fee and everything else is inferred rather than known.
המכפיל מול המתחרים
אין קבוצת השוואה, ולכן ההשוואה היחידה שנותרה היא להיסטוריה של Netflix עצמה. גם בה הנתון של השנה האחרונה מחמיא יותר מדי, בגלל דמי ביטול שלא הופיעו בחציון של שש השנים. לכן המחיר נבחן מול ההיסטוריה שלה.
ההימור: מה הוא מניב אם יצליח
ההימור הוא על פרסום שנמכר לצופים במסלול הזול. Netflix עדיין מגדירה אותו קטן מכדי לדווח עליו ולא מפרסמת את הרווח ממנו, ולכן את עסק המנויים סופרים בנפרד, לפי מכפיל הרווח שהתזה רואה בו הוגן ולא יותר.
בספירה כזו, המנויים לבדם שומרים על רוב מחיר המניה היום. אם הפרסום ימשיך לצמוח מהר הוא יוסיף מעט, אבל לא מספיק כדי לעבור את המחיר; אם YouTube תשמור על המפרסמים, מעט אובד.
| הכנסות מפרסום במסלול עם הפרסומות בעוד שנתיים עד שלוש | צופים חודשיים במסלול עם הפרסומות נדרשים | במכפיל שצוין |
|---|---|---|
| $4.50B | כ-375.0 מיליון, בהנחה ש-100% נשמר | 0.9× |
| 6.00 מיליארד דולר (הצלחה גדולה) | כ-500.0 מיליון, בהנחה ש-100% נשמר | 0.9× |
| $9.00B | כ-750.0 מיליון, בהנחה ש-100% נשמר | 0.9× |
כדי להניב פי 2 (הימור הוגן) יידרשו הכנסות של כ-69.42 מיליארד דולר מפרסום במסלול עם הפרסומות (כ-5.8 מיליארד צופים חודשיים במסלול הזה); כדי להניב פי 5 (הימור זול), כ-241.63 מיליארד דולר (כ-20.1 מיליארד צופים חודשיים), באותו מכפיל.
כל שורה כוללת את הפרסום במסלול עם הפרסומות בלבד, ועוד את שאר החברה (המנויים), שנספרת בכ-236.00 מיליארד דולר.
השלבים שעליה לעבור
- הושלם הכנסות פרסום של יותר מ-1.5 מיליארד דולר בשנה
- הושלם יותר מ-250 מיליון צופים חודשיים במסלול עם הפרסומות
- נדחה כ-3 מיליארד דולר מפרסום ב-2026 (התחזית הופחתה לכ-2.7 מיליארד) צפוי בדצמבר 2026
- טרם התחיל הכנסות פרסום של כמעט 6 מיליארד דולר בשנה, מהותיות מספיק כדי לדווח עליהן עד דצמבר 2028
הפירוט שמאחורי הדירוג
Rating
Expensive
the big win's payoff against the 2× and 5× lines
Cheap bet at about
$12.78
82% מתחת למחיר (שער סגירה, )
העסק החדש
0.5×
what Advertising on the ads plan is worth if it works, against what the price pays for it
הראיות (באנגלית) · 6 טענות
C20טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Netflix guides 2026 revenue of about $51.1B, up 13%, at a 31.5% operating margin, free cash flow of approximately $12.0B (cut from $12.5B, mainly for a real estate transaction expected to close in Q4) and advertising revenue of about $2.7B (cut from about $3B because some ad product capabilities rolled out slightly slower than expected).
sourceNetflix Q3 2026 Letter to Shareholders (Exhibit 99.1 to the…primaryNetflix Q4 2025 shareholder letter (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1)primaryNetflix Q2 2026 shareholder letter (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1)primary
against this
- The 20 October letter cut two of the four targets set in July: advertising from about $3B to about $2.7B, and free cash flow from $12.5B to $12.0B. Revenue is $51.1B against a July range of $51.0B-$51.4B, 0.2% below its mid-point, so only the margin target was held as written.
- The free-cash-flow cut is attributed to a real estate transaction, not to the operating business, but Netflix gives no figure for it, so how much of the $0.5B is operating is not disclosed.
- The implied Q4 operating margin is now 26.0%, including about 120 basis points from the headcount reductions; the nine-month 33.5% margin beat the quarterly forecasts mainly on the timing of expenses, which management itself says, so part of Q3's 34.6% is borrowed from Q4.
- 2026-10-20editedQ3 2026 letter of 20 October cut the advertising guide to about $2.7B and the free-cash-flow guide to $12.0B, and moved revenue to $51.1B; margin held at 31.5%
C31עובדהmedium confidence
FY2025 advertising revenue was over $1.5B, more than 2.5 times FY2024, in Netflix's third year of selling advertising; it was about 3.4% of FY2025 revenue.
C60טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
At its May 2026 upfront Netflix told advertisers its ads plan reaches more than 250 million global monthly active viewers, up from the 190 million it cited in November 2025. The measure is Netflix's own: members who watched at least a minute of ads in a month, times an estimated household size.
against this
A viewer count multiplied by a household estimate is not a paying account; part of the rise is the change from monthly active users to monthly active viewers, and no third party measures it.
C61אומדןlow confidence
If advertising earned the company's guided 31.5% operating margin and 18.2% tax rate, the roughly $3B guided for 2026 would be about $0.8B of the roughly $12.6B of net profit the 2026 guide implies, leaving about $11.8B for the membership business. Netflix discloses no margin for advertising.
sourceNetflix Q4 2025 shareholder letter (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1)primaryNetflix Q2 2026 shareholder letter (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1)primary
against this
A young ad business usually earns less than the company margin while it builds its sales team and ad technology, so the membership business may earn more than this and advertising less.
C27אומדןmedium confidence
At $71.36 the equity is about $304B and enterprise value about $309B, so Netflix's own 2026 guide of about $16.1B of operating profit and about $12.6B of net profit puts the price at about $24 for each $1 of net profit and about $19 of enterprise value for each $1 of operating profit.
derived4,261.3M Q2 2026 diluted shares at $71.36 is $304.1B; plus $14,309.3M of debt less $9,127.9M of cash is $309.3B. The $51.2B revenue mid-point at the guided 31.5% margin is $16,128M of operating profit; less H1 2026 interest expense of $437.8M doubled, plus about $200M of other income, taxed at H1's 18.2%, is about $12,640M, or $2.98 on about 4,240M shares. Derived from C20, C24 and C26 and the pack's closing price of 23 September 2026.
against this
- It runs entirely on management's own guide, which is a management claim and not a filed figure. If the 31.5% margin is missed by one point the net figure falls about $420M and the multiple rises by about 0.8.
- The pack's own trailing figure is 22.2 times earnings against a six-year median of 41.7, so on the comparison a screen actually makes the shares look far cheaper than this frame does. Both are true and they differ because one is trailing and reported and the other forward and guided.
- Analysts' consensus earnings of $4.55 for 2028 and $6.46 for 2030 would put the same price at 15.7 and 11.0 times, so the frame is demanding only if growth beyond 2026 disappoints those estimates.
- 2026-09-24editedRe-struck at the 2026-09-23 close of $71.36: the thesis's 12% drift trigger fired. The consensus figures in the counter-evidence are re-read from the new pack.
C12עובדהhigh confidence
Alphabet's FY2025 10-K reports YouTube advertising revenue of $40,367M, up from $36,147M in 2024 and $31,510M in 2023 - 89% of Netflix's entire FY2025 revenue, from advertising alone.
איפה אנחנו חלוקים על השוק
השוק חושב
עסק מצוין שנמכר בגלל האטה בצמיחה וגילוי מצומצם יותר. רוב האנליסטים עדיין ממליצים לקנות.
אנחנו חושבים
הירידה מוצדקת פחות או יותר: מחיר הוגן לעסק טוב שהרווח המדווח והמזומן שלו התחילו להיפרד.
שני המספרים נמצאים במקומות שאף אחד לא קורא יחד: דמי הביטול בתוך ההכנסות האחרות, וההוצאה על תוכן בדוח תזרים המזומנים. Netflix גם מפרסמת פחות: ספירת המנויים נפסקה ב-2025, ונתוני הצפייה יהפכו לשנתיים מ-2027.
אנחנו טועים אם ההוצאה על תוכן תרד בכ-2.4% ברבעון הרביעי, תזרים המזומנים החופשי יסתכם ב-12.0 מיליארד דולר, והפרסום יגיע ליעד המופחת של 2.7 מיליארד דולר.
מה אומרים האנליסטים
המלצות חיוביות
67%
מתוך 52, ב-1 בספטמבר
לפני ארבעה חודשים
72%
מתוך 51, ב-1 במאי
הראיות (באנגלית) · 7 טענות
C44עובדהmedium confidence
The analyst panel the research pack aggregates stands at 63 buy, 30 hold and 7 sell, with no strong sells, and its consensus label is Buy.
- 2026-09-24editedRe-read from the research pack of 2026-09-24: one more sell rating than on 25 August.
C07עובדהhigh confidence
Warner Bros. Discovery terminated its amended merger agreement with Netflix on 27 February 2026 to accept Paramount Skydance, and Paramount Skydance paid Netflix a $2.8B termination fee on WBD's behalf, recorded in interest and other income in Q1 2026.
C05עובדהhigh confidence
In H1 2026 Netflix added $9,774.4M of cash to content assets, up 32.3% on H1 2025's $7,385.5M, while the amortisation charged against profit was $8,529.2M, up 11.4% on $7,655.2M.
C03עובדהmedium confidence
The last paid-membership figure Netflix published is from the Q4 2025 letter: it 'crossed the 325M paid memberships milestone during the quarter'. Quarterly membership reporting stopped in 2025.
C19עובדהhigh confidence
From 2027 Netflix will publish its What We Watched view-hours report annually in the first quarter rather than twice a year, and will no longer publish it alongside earnings.
C06אומדןmedium confidence
Management's 2026 guide of about 1.1 times cash content spend to amortisation, with amortisation up about 10%, implies second-half cash content spend of roughly $10.1B against $9.71B in H2 2025 - growth of about 4.0%, after 32.3% in the first half. Q3 added $5,159.8M, up 10.9% on $4,653.9M, so the fourth quarter has to come in near $4.94B, down about 2.4%.
against this
- Management pre-announced the shape in January 2026, before the year began: content amortisation growth would be higher in the first half than the second 'due to the timing of title launches', and operating income growth would therefore be higher in the second half. So a front-loaded first half is what was described, and the 4.0% is the arithmetic of a guide management may simply revise.
- The ratio is a rounded 'approximately 1.1x' and the amortisation growth a rounded 'approximately 10%'. At 1.15 times and 11% amortisation growth the implied second-half spend is about $11.2B, which is 15% growth rather than 4% - the sensitivity to two rounded inputs is large.
- 2026-10-20editedQ3 2026 additions to content assets grew 10.9%, above single digits; the guide now needs a fall of about 2.4% in Q4
C20טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Netflix guides 2026 revenue of about $51.1B, up 13%, at a 31.5% operating margin, free cash flow of approximately $12.0B (cut from $12.5B, mainly for a real estate transaction expected to close in Q4) and advertising revenue of about $2.7B (cut from about $3B because some ad product capabilities rolled out slightly slower than expected).
sourceNetflix Q3 2026 Letter to Shareholders (Exhibit 99.1 to the…primaryNetflix Q4 2025 shareholder letter (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1)primaryNetflix Q2 2026 shareholder letter (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1)primary
against this
- The 20 October letter cut two of the four targets set in July: advertising from about $3B to about $2.7B, and free cash flow from $12.5B to $12.0B. Revenue is $51.1B against a July range of $51.0B-$51.4B, 0.2% below its mid-point, so only the margin target was held as written.
- The free-cash-flow cut is attributed to a real estate transaction, not to the operating business, but Netflix gives no figure for it, so how much of the $0.5B is operating is not disclosed.
- The implied Q4 operating margin is now 26.0%, including about 120 basis points from the headcount reductions; the nine-month 33.5% margin beat the quarterly forecasts mainly on the timing of expenses, which management itself says, so part of Q3's 34.6% is borrowed from Q4.
- 2026-10-20editedQ3 2026 letter of 20 October cut the advertising guide to about $2.7B and the free-cash-flow guide to $12.0B, and moved revenue to $51.1B; margin held at 31.5%
מה יכול להשתבש, ואיך נדע
הסיכונים
- YouTube ממשיכה לנצח בשעות הערב. הנתח של Netflix מזמן הצפייה בטלוויזיה בארה״ב היה נמוך מרמתו לפני שנה ביוני וביולי 2026.
- ההוצאה על תוכן מקדימה את ההכנסות. ההוצאה במזומן על תוכן עלתה ב-32.3% במחצית הראשונה, מול עלייה של 14.7% בהכנסות.
- הצמיחה בארה״ב מאטה. הצמיחה בארה״ב ובקנדה ירדה מ-18% ל-14% ול-10% בשלושת הרבעונים האחרונים.
- עוד רכישה גדולה. בינואר היא גייסה מימון בחוב של 42.2 מיליארד דולר כדי לקנות אולפן בודד.
- פחות נתונים לבדיקה. ספירת המנויים נעלמה לתמיד, ונתוני הצפייה יתפרסמו אחת לשנה מ-2027.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 7 טענות
C15הסקהmedium confidence
Netflix's measured share of United States television time is now below its year-earlier level in two consecutive months: Nielsen put it at 7.9% in June 2026 against 8.3% in June 2025 and 7.8% in July 2026 against 8.8% in July 2025, after 8.0% in May 2026 against 7.5% a year earlier.
sourceNielsen, The Gauge and Media Distributor Gauge, May 2026primaryNielsen, The Gauge and Media Distributor Gauge, June 2026primaryNielsen, The Gauge and Media Distributor Gauge, July 2026primaryNielsen, Media Distributor Gauge, June 2025primaryNielsen, Media Distributor Gauge, July and August 2025primary
against this
- June and July 2026 were distorted by the FIFA World Cup, which drove broadcast to its first June share increase since The Gauge began and lifted FOX and Peacock again in July; June and July 2025 had no tournament. Some of the year-over-year fall is the comparison rather than Netflix.
- Netflix's absolute viewing rose in June 2026; only its share did not. Nielsen's July text names no Netflix figure at all, so the 7.8% is read off its chart.
- Nielsen is changing the Gauge's method this autumn and says it will provide back data, so the next reading and the year-earlier figure it is compared with may both be restated.
- 2026-09-24editedRe-derived on the June and July 2026 Gauge charts and Nielsen's own 2025 releases: Netflix's share is now below its year-earlier level in two consecutive months, which the claim did not say before.
C05עובדהhigh confidence
In H1 2026 Netflix added $9,774.4M of cash to content assets, up 32.3% on H1 2025's $7,385.5M, while the amortisation charged against profit was $8,529.2M, up 11.4% on $7,655.2M.
C18עובדהhigh confidence
Netflix members watched 97 billion hours in H1 2026, up 2% year over year against 1.5% growth in 2025, while H1 2026 revenue of $24,810M was up 14.7%.
C33עובדהhigh confidence
Revenue growth in the United States and Canada fell from 18% in Q4 2025 to 14% in Q1 2026 and 10% in Q2 2026, on a currency-neutral basis identical to the reported one.
against this
- The Q2 2026 letter says the 10% 'reflects only a partial quarter impact from our recent price change, which has gone well and as expected', so part of the deceleration is the timing of a price increase inside the quarter rather than demand.
- Latin America accelerated over the same three quarters, from 15% to 19% to 21% reported, so the deceleration is not global.
C28עובדהhigh confidence
Netflix arranged $34B of bridge facility commitments for the Warner Bros. acquisition and raised them by $8.2B to $42.2B on 19 January 2026 when the deal became all cash at $27.75 a WBD share, and paused its share buyback to accumulate cash for it.
C03עובדהmedium confidence
The last paid-membership figure Netflix published is from the Q4 2025 letter: it 'crossed the 325M paid memberships milestone during the quarter'. Quarterly membership reporting stopped in 2025.
C19עובדהhigh confidence
From 2027 Netflix will publish its What We Watched view-hours report annually in the first quarter rather than twice a year, and will no longer publish it alongside earnings.
שאלות פתוחות
- האם הזינוק בהוצאה על תוכן במחצית הראשונה היה עניין של תזמון, כפי שההנהלה אמרה בינואר, או רמה חדשה.
- כמה מנויים יש לה עכשיו. היא הפסיקה לפרסם את המספר כשעמד על 325 מיליון.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 4 טענות
C05עובדהhigh confidence
In H1 2026 Netflix added $9,774.4M of cash to content assets, up 32.3% on H1 2025's $7,385.5M, while the amortisation charged against profit was $8,529.2M, up 11.4% on $7,655.2M.
C21טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Management guides 2026 content amortisation up about 10% and a cash content spend to amortisation ratio of about 1.1 times, a guide it repeated on 20 October; it told investors in January 2026 that amortisation growth would be front-loaded into the first half.
sourceNetflix Q3 2026 Letter to Shareholders (Exhibit 99.1 to the…primaryNetflix Q4 2025 shareholder letter (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1)primaryNetflix Q2 2026 shareholder letter (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1)primaryNetflix Q2 2026 earnings call, question sectionprimary
against this
- The comparable FY2025 outturn was 1.041 times, so the guide is already a step up before the H1 2026 outturn of 1.146 times is considered.
- On the Q2 2026 call Ted Sarandos framed the same guide as discipline - 'we grow the content spend slower than revenue' - while describing content expense, the amortisation line, and not the cash. Both statements are true and only one of them is what leaves the bank.
- After nine months the ratio is 1.17 times ($14,934.2M added against $12,764.7M amortised), so holding the full-year 1.1 times needs fourth-quarter additions of about $4.94B, 2.4% below the fourth quarter of 2025 ($5,057.2M derived from FY2025 and nine-month cash flows).
- 2026-10-20editedQ3 2026 letter repeats the 1.1 times guide; nine-month ratio is 1.17 times, so the fourth quarter has to fall
C48טענת ההנהלהhigh confidence
In January 2026, before the year began, Netflix told investors content amortisation growth would be higher in the first half of 2026 than the second because of title-launch timing, and that operating income growth would therefore be higher in the second half.
against this
- The same guide puts the full year at a 31.5% operating margin against H1 2026's actual 32.8%, so the second half must run below the first. 'Higher operating income growth in the second half' is therefore arithmetic about a weak prior-year base - H2 2025 carried a Q3 at 28.2% and a Q4 at 24.5% - rather than a claim about a better second half.
- The statement is about the amortisation charge and says nothing about the cash. It does not explain, and management has never been asked about, the 32.3% growth in cash added to content assets in the same half.
C03עובדהmedium confidence
The last paid-membership figure Netflix published is from the Q4 2025 letter: it 'crossed the 325M paid memberships milestone during the quarter'. Quarterly membership reporting stopped in 2025.
מה ישנה את ההערכה שלנו
- ניטרלית→אטרקטיביתההוצאה על תוכן נשארת ממושמעת והפרסום מצליח
צריכים להתקיים כל התנאים:
- ○המזומן שמושקע בתוכן גדל לא מהר יותר מההכנסות במשך ארבעה רבעונים ברציפות, ושיעור הרווח התפעולי מתרחב לאורך שנה שלמה.ייבדק בדוחות הבאים, שיפורסמו עד 31 בינואר
- ○הכנסות הפרסום מגיעות לכ-3 מיליארד דולר שההנהלה הבטיחה ל-2026.ייבדק בדוחות הבאים, שיפורסמו עד 31 בינואר
- ניטרלית→לא אטרקטיביתהאסטרטגיה בולעת את המזומן או את הקהל
מספיק אחד מאלה:
- ○Netflix מוציאה על רכישת אולפן יותר מתזרים חופשי של שנה.נבדק בזמן אמת
- ○נתח הצפייה של Netflix בטלוויזיה האמריקנית נמוך משנה קודם בשלוש מדידות רצופות.ייבדק בדוחות הבאים, שיפורסמו עד 31 בינואר
נטעה גם אם
- ההוצאה על תוכן גדלה מהר יותר מההכנסות ארבעה רבעונים ברצף.
- הפרסום מסיים את 2026 הרבה מתחת ל-3 מיליארד דולר.
מה בהמשך
- 25 בנובמבר 2026 משחק ה-NFL בערב חג ההודיה: האם ספורט חי ממשיך לייצר שיאי הצטרפות וביקוש לפרסום, בהתחשב בעלותו.
כל האירועים הצפויים
- 25 בנובמבר 2026 משחק ה-NFL בערב חג ההודיה: האם ספורט חי ממשיך לייצר שיאי הצטרפות וביקוש לפרסום, בהתחשב בעלותו.
- 25 בדצמבר 2026 משחקי ה-NFL בחג המולד: המבחן החי הגדול השני של הרבעון; ערב חלש יטיל ספק בהוצאה על שידורים חיים בתוך תקציב התוכן.
- ינואר 2027 תוצאות הרבעון הרביעי של 2026 והתחזית ל-2027: האם המזומן שמושקע בתוכן ברבעון הרביעי יורד בכ-2.4% כדי להתאים ליחס של 1.1, האם תזרים המזומנים החופשי מגיע ל-12.0 מיליארד דולר, והאם הפרסום מגיע ל-2.7 מיליארד דולר.
- 1 ביוני 2027 מועד אחרון למיזוג Paramount Skydance וכן Warner Bros. Discovery: האם המיזוג בין שתי ספריות התוכן הגדולות של המתחרות יושלם, או שתביעת התסריטאים תעצור אותו; כך או כך זה קובע מול מי Netflix תתמודד על תוכן.
מה קרה מאז
נכתבה
25 באוגוסט
המחיר בעת כתיבת התזה
$71.36
23 בספטמבר
- 21 באוקטוברדוחותהשיחה הסבירה את הקיצוץ בפרסום ולא שינתה דברההנהלה הסבירה את הקיצוץ בעיכוב בהשקת מוצרי הפרסום ובשילוב השותפים, חזרה על תחזית החברה לכל השנה ולא נתנה מספר חדש. הרבעון הרביעי עדיין יכריע.
- 20 באוקטוברדוחותהמכירות עלו ב-11.8%; יעדי הפרסום והמזומן הופחתוההכנסות ושיעור הרווח עמדו ברף, אבל ההוצאה על תוכן צמחה מהר מהמקווה ושני יעדים הופחתו. ההערכה לא השתנתה, וקו האזהרה בפרסום קרוב יותר.
- 14 באוקטוברחדשותNetflix מפטרת כ-6% מהעובדים, ולפי דיווחים משאירה את התחזית לכל השנה בעינה. ההערכה לא השתנתהNetflix פיטרה כ-1,000 עובדים, כ-6% מכוח האדם, שישה ימים לפני פרסום תוצאות הרבעון השלישי.
- 11 באוקטוברבדיקת התזההפרסום הוגדר קו עסקי מוקדם, עם הימור עליוהבעלים ביקש שכל תזה תפרט את קווי העסקים שהסיפור שלה נשען עליהם; הפרסום הוא חצי מהמסלול הראשון לשינוי ההערכה, ואינו מדווח בנפרד.
- 5 באוקטוברבדיקת התזההטיעון לטווח הארוך מופיע עכשיו מתחת לשורה התחתונהאחרי פיילוט בחמש חברות ביקש הבעלים להוסיף טיעון לטווח הארוך לכל תזה.
- 4 באוקטוברבדיקת התזההצ'קליסט של הבעלים: מקורות הכנסה, עלות הצמיחה, הנהלה, זרזיםהצ'קליסט של הבעלים מצא שהשיטה לא עוסקת במי שמנהל את החברה, בעלות הצמיחה, במקורות ההכנסה ובאירועים הצפויים. העדכון הזה משלים את ארבעת הנושאים מדוח הזימון לאסיפה (proxy) ומהדוחות שהוגשו ל-SEC.
- 24 בספטמברחדשותהנתח מזמן הצפייה בטלוויזיה נמוך שוב מלפני שנה. ההערכה לא השתנתהלפי נתוני Nielsen ליולי, הנתח של Netflix מזמן הצפייה בטלוויזיה בארה״ב נמוך מרמתו לפני שנה זה החודש השני ברציפות; חודש שלישי יפעיל אחד מהתנאים לשינוי ההערכה. הטענות על המחיר חושבו מחדש אחרי ירידה של 13.2%.
- 25 באוגוסטהתזה נכתבהניטרלית, ביטחון בינוניעסק טוב שהירידה במניה שלו מוצדקת פחות או יותר: YouTube מנצחת בזמן הצפייה בטלוויזיה, וההוצאה במזומן על תוכן הקדימה את העלות שנרשמה ברווח.
נבדקה גם 8 פעמים, ללא ממצא חדש שמצריך פעולה.
מקורות 23
Where this came from
Sources - 23
Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.
- S01primarycompany filing2026-01-23Item 1 business and the competition classes, the single-segment statement, FY2025 revenue and operating income, the regional revenue table, the three-year cash flow statement with content additions against amortisation, the content-obligations maturity ladder, the piracy risk factor, the revolving facility and the 4,222,162,150 share countbacksC01C02C04C16C22C24C26C32C37C42C51C53C54C58
- S02primarycompany filing2026-01-20the last paid-membership figure of 325M, FY2025 advertising revenue over $1.5B at more than 2.5 times, the original 2026 guide including roughly $11B of free cash flow and about $275M of acquisition expenses, the Nielsen 9.0% December citation, the $42.2B bridge commitments and the all-cash $27.75 WBD terms, the buyback pause, and the January statement that content amortisation growth would be front-loadedbacksC03C14C20C21C22C26C28C31C47C48C49C61
- S03primarycompany filing2026-07-16the quarterly series to Q2 2026 and the Q3 guide, the narrowed 2026 revenue range and the approximately $12.5B free-cash-flow guide, the 1.1 times cash-to-amortisation ratio, the regional growth table, 97 billion H1 view hours at 2%, the view-hours disclosure change, the creator and publisher signings, the TF1 partnership, the NFL slate, and the record $4.7B buyback quarterbacksC09C17C18C19C20C21C22C25C33C38C39C46C50C52C61C62
- S04primarycompany filing2026-07-17the Warner Bros. termination note and the $2.8B fee in interest and other income, the H1 cash flow statement with content additions of $9,774.4M against amortisation of $8,529.2M, the balance sheet and treasury-stock movement, the debt note, the $587M March acquisition, the $729M Brazilian tax payments, stock-based compensation, and the 4,163,939,676 share countbacksC05C07C09C18C24C25C26C30C37C39C41C46C47C49C54
- S05primarytranscript2026-07-16the addressable-market claims, the live versus animation spend and view-hour comparison, the per-hour price claim, the games market size, the generative-AI cost claim, and sixteen analyst questions including the deceleration, second-season viewing, free trials, bundling and the 'primarily builders, not buyers' answer on capital allocation
We are less than 45% penetrated into households around the world. It is roughly 800 million addressable households. Capturing, you know, we think just 7% of addressable revenue market. It is about $670 billion of addressable revenue in the countries and categories in which we operate today. We estimate that we are only about 5% of TV viewing share globally.
backsC21C36C38C45C50 - S06primarycompany filing2026-08-06Warner Bros. Discovery Form 10-Q, quarter ended 30 June 2026 Warner Bros. Discoverythe counterparty's own record of the Netflix merger, its termination and the $2,800M fee; the Clayton Act challenge and the 24 July 2026 standstill to the earlier of five days after a merits determination or 1 June 2027; the merger termination fees; and the Streaming segment's Q2 2026 revenue and adjusted earningsbacksC07C29C30
- S07primarycompany filing2026-02-05YouTube advertising revenue of $40,367M for 2025, $36,147M for 2024 and $31,510M for 2023, and the revenue-disaggregation note confirming the line excludes YouTube subscription revenuebacksC12
- S08primarycompany filing2025-11-13The Walt Disney Company Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 27 September 2025 The Walt Disney CompanyDisney+ at 131.6M paid subscribers and $7.81 average monthly revenue per paid subscriber worldwide, Hulu at 64.1M and $12.36, and the definitions behind both - the only outside measure of what a household pays a scaled generalist rivalbacksC10
- S09primaryindustry data2026-07-28the measured distributor shares of United States television watch-time, streaming at 48.6% against broadcast 19.2% and cable 20.4%, and the note that methodological updates arrive in autumn 2026
Streaming usage appeared to begin its summer ascent in May as audiences' time spent streaming increased to 48.6% of total TV watch-time (+1.0 pt.) … YouTube recorded a platform-best 13.8% of TV watch-time in May to maintain the largest share of television among all distributors for a third consecutive month. … Netflix moved back into the No. 4 slot in the Media Distributor Gauge, representing 8.0% of TV usage in May (+0.2 pts.). … Broadcast and cable viewing exhibited typical April-to-May declines, finishing at 19.2% and 20.4% of TV watch-time, respectively. … The May 2026 interval spanned five weeks, from 04/27/2026 through 05/31/2026.
backsC15C35 - S10primaryindustry data2026-08-18the second consecutive month of YouTube at 13.8%, streaming easing to 48.5% as the World Cup lifted broadcast, and the counter-evidence that Netflix's absolute viewing rose while its share did not
Overall streaming usage was up about 3% compared to May, but due to it being just below the 3.1% increase for total TV usage, the category dropped back 0.1 share point to 48.5% of TV watch-time. … several other streamers also saw monthly viewing increases, including YouTube, Netflix, The Roku Channel and Paramount Streaming … but similar to the overall streaming category, their shares were flat or down slightly. However, YouTube remained in the lead among media distributors with 13.8% of time spent. … The June 2026 interval spanned four weeks, from 06/01/2026 through 06/28/2026.
backsC15C35 - S11primarygovernment data2026-07-13World Bank World Development Indicators, ITU indicator IT.NET.BBND - fixed broadband subscriptions World Bankthe base for the prize - 1,654 million fixed broadband subscriptions worldwide at end-2025, and 669,825,900 in China for 2024, counted by somebody with no interest in the answer
Fixed broadband subscriptions refers to fixed subscriptions to high-speed access to the public Internet (a TCP/IP connection), at downstream speeds equal to, or greater than, 256 kbit/s. This includes cable modem, DSL, fiber-to-the-home/building, other fixed (wired)-broadband subscriptions, satellite broadband and terrestrial fixed wireless broadband. … "countryiso3code":"WLD","date":"2025","value":1654000000 … "country":{"id":"CN","value":"China"},"countryiso3code":"CHN","date":"2024","value":669825900
backsC34 - S12primarycompany filing2025-01-27the prior year's Competition section and competition risk factor, which is what makes the FY2025 promotion of 'open content platform providers' visible as a change rather than a standing descriptionbacksC16C54
- S13primarycompany filing2026-08-10the transaction code rather than the aggregate: code S, an open-market sale of 9,248 shares at $75.7901, leaving 73,787 held directly, with no derivative table and no explanation of responsesbacksC40
- S14primarycompany filing2026-07-22the size, coupon and maturity of the July 2026 issue, which confirms the refinancing described in the Q2 letter rather than new leveragebacksC39
- S15secondaryvendor data2026-09-24Frozen research pack, content/NFLX/research-pack.json (close of 23 September 2026)content/NFLX/research-pack.jsonthe closing price and the 252-day return and range position, the trailing multiples against their six-year medians, the analyst panel, the volatility bucket, the insider and congressional filings, the earnings history and the theme co-movement readingbacksC40C43C44
- S16secondarynews2026-08-25Filtered news digest, data/cache/news/NFLX.jsondata/cache/news/NFLX.jsonfour key developments from 250 articles: the July print and the two-year low, the Pershing Square stake, the advertising leadership change, and the Barron's creator-bidding argument - plus the headlines that evidence what the common view actually isread, but no claim rests on it
- S17primaryindustry data2026-09-10the July 2026 distributor shares, the June 2026 Netflix share of 7.9% from the chart the June release carries, streaming at 49.0%, and Nielsen's note that the Gauge's method changes this autumn with back data
YouTube viewing rose 6% month-over-month to bring the streamer's share of TV to a record 14.2%, and extending its lead in the Media Distributor Gauge to 5.0 share points. … the category climbed to 49.0% of total TV (+0.5 pts.). … Broadcast finished the month with a 19.5% share of TV (-0.3 pts.). … the category represented 18.7% of TV in July. … The July 2026 interval spanned four weeks, from 06/29/2026 through 07/26/2026. [Media Distributor Gauge chart, July 2026: YouTube 14.2%, NBCUniversal + Versant 9.2%, Disney 8.9%, Netflix 7.8%, FOX 7.8%.] [June 2026 chart on the same page: Netflix 7.9%, YouTube 13.8%.]
backsC13C15C35 - S18primaryindustry data2025-07-15the June 2025 Netflix share of 8.3%, and May 2025's 7.5% by subtracting the 0.8 points added
Netflix posted the largest monthly share-increase across all media companies this month, adding 0.8 points from May to represent 8.3% of June's TV usage total and its largest share of television since January 2025.
backsC15 - S19primaryindustry data2025-09-23the July 2025 Netflix share of 8.8% and the August 2025 share of 8.7%, the year-earlier comparisons for the two readings after June
Netflix maintained its ranking among the top three media distributors this month by adding half a share point over June to finish with 8.8% of TV. [August 2025 release, https://www.nielsen.com/news-center/2025/disney-and-fox-gain-turf-in-august-as-footballs-return-kicks-off-seasonal-shifts-according-to-nielsen/, 23 September 2025:] Netflix held steady in third with 8.7% of television (-0.1 point)
backsC15 - S20primarycompany filing2026-04-16beneficial ownership as of 6 April 2026 with each insider's options, the executive officers and their tenure, Reed Hastings leaving the executive role and the board, and the CD&A: bonus metrics and weights, the 2025 payout, the PSU and RSU designbacksC55C56C57
- S21secondarynews2026-05-14Netflix's own reach figure for the ads plan, as reported from its upfront; the newsroom post could not be found and no filing carries it
reaches more than 250 million global monthly active viewers, up from the 190 million it cited in November of 2025
backsC60C62 - S22primarycompany filing2026-10-20Q3 2026 revenue, operating margin, additions to and amortisation of content assets for the quarter and nine months, free cash flow, buybacks, debt and cash, and the updated 2026 guide for revenue, margin, free cash flow and advertisingbacksC06C20C21C63
- S23primarytranscript2026-10-20the advertising shortfall's cause (delayed rollout and partner integrations) and the 80% growth rate, the repeat of full-year guidance, the 2027 revenue and margin objectives, the churn and price-rise read, and the content-chief change
We are currently a bit behind our aggressive target for the year. We are still growing, just to set the context or put this in perspective. We are still growing our ads business over 80% this year.
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