Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC)

השורה התחתונה

הציון שלנו ל-Lattice: ניטרלית. החברה מייצרת שבבים קטנים הניתנים לתכנות, שמדליקים שרת ומשגיחים עליו, וביולי רכשה את AMI, שהקוד שלה מאתחל את השרת. מרכזי נתונים ל-AI העלו את המכירות במהירות, אבל התגמול במניות שווה לכחמישית מהמכירות, והרכישה הוסיפה חוב, ולכן העסק בינוני. המחיר מלא: המשקיעים כבר מתייחסים להזמנות שנרשמו ל-2027 כאל מכירות, כך שביטולי הזמנות יפגעו במניה. כהימור, המחיר כבר מגלם הצלחה: עסק השבבים מכסה פחות משני שלישים מהמחיר, וגם צמיחה של AMI כפי שהובטח מוסיפה מעט. ההערכה תלויה בצבר ההזמנות הזה ובכך שהנתונים של AMI יופיעו בדוחות הכספיים המבוקרים.

הטיעון לטווח הארוךכל שרת חדש צריך קושחה שמאתחלת אותו ומאפשרת לנהל אותו מרחוק. אם ה-AI ימשיך להוסיף שרתים וסוגי שבבים, בית התוכנה העצמאי המרכזי לקושחה גובה עמלה על כל אחד מהם.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 8 טענות

C03עובדהhigh confidence

Q2 2026 revenue was $201.1M, up 62.2% year on year and 17.7% on the quarter, with a GAAP gross margin of 70.3%, GAAP operating income of $22.4M (11.1%), GAAP diluted EPS of $0.14 and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $0.53.

sourceLattice Semiconductor Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 4 July…primary Lattice Semiconductor Q2 2026 results release, Form 8-K…primary

historical · Q2 2026written 2026-09-19

C11עובדהhigh confidence

Lattice completed the acquisition of AMI on 27 July 2026 for about $1.65B: roughly $1B in cash and about 5.2 million shares (about $650M at signing), on a cash-free, debt-free basis with escrow and working-capital adjustments.

sourceLattice Semiconductor Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 4 July…primary Lattice Semiconductor Completes Acquisition of AMI, Form 8-K…primary Lattice to Acquire AMI, announcement release, Form 8-K…primary

historical · Q3 2026written 2026-09-19

C34אומדןmedium confidence

Pro forma for the deal the enterprise value is about $16.0B ($15.2B market value plus $925M of term debt less about $100M of cash after the $75M paid at closing), about 15.7 times the Q3 2026 guide midpoint annualised to $1.02B; against the panel's $3.21 of non-GAAP EPS for the year ending January 2028 the shares trade at about 35 times, and at about 52 times the $2.13 expected for the year ending January 2027.

derivedC33 for the market value and trailing figures; C12 and C11 for the debt and cash used; C08 for the guide midpoint; the pack's analyst_estimates for the panel EPS (9 analysts for both years) and the 18 September close of $110.96. The panel's EPS is non-GAAP and therefore excludes the stock pay in C05.

against this

If the panel's year-two figure of $4.24 (6 analysts) for the year ending January 2029 is right, the multiple falls to about 26 times two years out, which is where a 40% grower with a 40% adjusted operating margin is not obviously dear.
The 126-session decomposition shows the multiple fell 3.8% while revenue per share rose 21.5%, so the de-rating has already begun and the price is paying less for each dollar of sales than in March.

current state · 2026-09-18written 2026-09-19

C05עובדהhigh confidence

Stock-based compensation was $44.9M in Q2 2026 ($42.2M in operating expenses, $2.6M in cost of sales), about 22% of revenue; $72.5M in the first half of 2026; and $115.6M for fiscal 2025, 22% of that year's revenue. It is excluded from every non-GAAP figure.

sourceLattice Semiconductor Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 4 July…primary Lattice Semiconductor Q2 2026 results release, Form 8-K…primary Lattice Semiconductor Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 3…primary

historical · Q2 2026 and FY2025written 2026-09-19

C40הסקהhigh confidence

The adjusted profit the price is struck on excludes stock pay worth about a fifth of revenue; on GAAP the company earned $0.14 a share in its best quarter and $0.02 for fiscal 2025, so the earnings multiple is on a definition of profit that treats roughly $180M a year of employee pay as if it were not a cost.

derivedC03 and C05 for the Q2 figures; C39 for fiscal 2025; the annualised figure is four times Q2 2026 stock-based compensation

against this

Stock pay is settled in shares rather than cash, and the company has offset the dilution with buybacks: diluted shares rose only 1.8% over the year while it spent $115M repurchasing stock, so the cost shows up in cash spent on buybacks rather than in the share count.
Every listed semiconductor peer reports on the same non-GAAP basis and the panel's estimates are struck on it, so the multiple is comparable across the group even if the profit definition is generous.

current state · 2026-07-04written 2026-09-19

C09טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence

Management says bookings accelerated, backlog extends well into 2027, '2027 is pretty much booked', and capacity agreements are being put in place with suppliers and, in turn, with customers and partners.

sourceLattice Semiconductor Q2 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary Lattice Semiconductor Q1 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary

against this

The fiscal 2025 10-K states that backlog has historically not been a predictor of future sales because purchase orders can generally be revised or cancelled up to 60 days before delivery without significant penalty and part of revenue is turns business.
No backlog figure is filed anywhere, and the customer capacity agreements are described on a call and have not been filed as exhibits.

current state · 2026-08-04written 2026-09-19

C13טענת ההנהלהlow confidence

Management expects AMI to generate more than $200M of revenue in 2026 with a non-GAAP gross margin above 75% by year end and adjusted EBITDA margins of about 40%; about 60% of its revenue is boot firmware and 40% infrastructure manageability; it expects about 25% growth in 2027 before any revenue synergy; a low-margin hardware pass-through line is being exited by the end of 2026; the deal is expected to be accretive to non-GAAP EPS from Q4 2026.

sourceLattice Semiconductor Q2 2026 results release, Form 8-K…primary Lattice Semiconductor Q2 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary

against this

No AMI financial statements have been filed: the 8-K/A with audited financials and pro formas was not on EDGAR at 19 September 2026, so every AMI figure is management's description of a private company it bought from a private-equity seller.
The Q3 guide itself carries the first evidence against the margin story: combined non-GAAP gross margin of 69.5% is below the FPGA business's 70% because of the AMI hardware line.

forwardwritten 2026-09-19

C60אומדןmedium confidence

Held at the Q3 2026 FPGA guide's midpoint for a year, the FPGA business is about $880M of revenue and, at Q2's 36.9% non-GAAP net margin, about $325M of adjusted earnings; less roughly $52M a year of after-tax interest on the AMI term loan, about $273M.

derived$220M FPGA guide midpoint (C08) times four; Q2 non-GAAP EPS of $0.53 on 140.2M diluted shares (C03, C16) over Q2 revenue of $201.1M; $55M of interest, the middle of C51's range, at the 5% non-GAAP tax rate (C59)

against this

Management says 2027 is 'pretty much booked' and the panel expects far more than a plateau (C09, C34), so holding the FPGA business flat understates it if the backlog becomes revenue.
Q2's margin excludes stock pay of about a fifth of revenue (C05), so on GAAP the same business earns far less.

forwardwritten 2026-10-11

01

החברה

את החישוב בשרת עושים המעבדים הגדולים. לידם יושב שבב קטן שמפעיל את החשמל בסדר הנכון, אוסף קריאות מעשרות חיישנים ובודק שהקושחה מקורית לפני שמשהו מתחיל לרוץ. Lattice מייצרת את השבב הזה, שבב ניתן לתכנות שאת החיווט שלו הלקוח קובע בתוכנה, ותומכת בדגמים רבים במשך יותר מ-20 שנה.

מאז יולי היא מוכרת גם את הקושחה של AMI, הקוד שמפעיל שרת ומאפשר למפעיל לנהל אותו מרחוק.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 4 טענות

C48טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence

The 10-K describes the FPGAs as optimised for I/O expansion, hardware acceleration, 'first-on, last-off' hardware security and hardware management in servers, switches, routers and 5G equipment, used as primary processors or as companion chips to AI and processing applications, and lists five trends it says favour FPGAs: shorter AI design cycles, rising ASIC and ASSP development cost, the economics of mature nodes, fast-changing security requirements such as post-quantum cryptography, and far-edge AI.

sourceLattice Semiconductor Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 3…primary

against this

AMD's 10-K states the opposite trade from the other side: 'continued competition from the ASIC market, which has been ongoing since the inception of FPGAs', so rising ASIC cost is a rivalry the FPGA has never won outright.
Caliptra shows the security function the fourth trend relies on moving inside the processor rather than onto a companion chip, and no outside body measures the far-edge AI socket the fifth trend describes.

current state · 2026-01-03written 2026-09-19

C01עובדהhigh confidence

Lattice designs small and mid-range low-power FPGAs, has them made by UMC, Samsung and TSMC, and sold 84% of fiscal 2025 revenue through distributors, with one global and several regional distributors.

sourceLattice Semiconductor Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 3…primary

current state · 2026-01-03written 2026-09-19

C52עובדהhigh confidence

The 10-K states that Lattice supports a large number of devices that have been in the market for over 20 years, multi-sources key elements of the silicon supply chain and adds redundancy in assembly and test, as a product-longevity commitment to customers with long product lives.

sourceLattice Semiconductor Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 3…primary

current state · 2026-01-03written 2026-09-19

C11עובדהhigh confidence

Lattice completed the acquisition of AMI on 27 July 2026 for about $1.65B: roughly $1B in cash and about 5.2 million shares (about $650M at signing), on a cash-free, debt-free basis with escrow and working-capital adjustments.

sourceLattice Semiconductor Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 4 July…primary Lattice Semiconductor Completes Acquisition of AMI, Form 8-K…primary Lattice to Acquire AMI, announcement release, Form 8-K…primary

historical · Q3 2026written 2026-09-19

ממה היא מרוויחה

היא מוכרת שבבים, כמעט כולם דרך מפיצים, ושניים מהם אחראים ל-69% מההכנסות ב-2025. נשארים לה כ-70 סנט מכל דולר מכירות אחרי עלות הייצור. AMI מוסיפה דמי רישיון ותמלוגים על כל שרת שהקוד שלה פועל עליו.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 4 טענות

C01עובדהhigh confidence

Lattice designs small and mid-range low-power FPGAs, has them made by UMC, Samsung and TSMC, and sold 84% of fiscal 2025 revenue through distributors, with one global and several regional distributors.

sourceLattice Semiconductor Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 3…primary

current state · 2026-01-03written 2026-09-19

C07עובדהhigh confidence

Distributors were 95% of Q2 2026 revenue; the two largest distributors were 49% and 39% of net receivables at 4 July 2026, and two distributors were 69% of fiscal 2025 revenue.

sourceLattice Semiconductor Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 4 July…primary Lattice Semiconductor Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 3…primary

current state · 2026-07-04written 2026-09-19

C03עובדהhigh confidence

Q2 2026 revenue was $201.1M, up 62.2% year on year and 17.7% on the quarter, with a GAAP gross margin of 70.3%, GAAP operating income of $22.4M (11.1%), GAAP diluted EPS of $0.14 and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $0.53.

sourceLattice Semiconductor Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 4 July…primary Lattice Semiconductor Q2 2026 results release, Form 8-K…primary

historical · Q2 2026written 2026-09-19

C13טענת ההנהלהlow confidence

Management expects AMI to generate more than $200M of revenue in 2026 with a non-GAAP gross margin above 75% by year end and adjusted EBITDA margins of about 40%; about 60% of its revenue is boot firmware and 40% infrastructure manageability; it expects about 25% growth in 2027 before any revenue synergy; a low-margin hardware pass-through line is being exited by the end of 2026; the deal is expected to be accretive to non-GAAP EPS from Q4 2026.

sourceLattice Semiconductor Q2 2026 results release, Form 8-K…primary Lattice Semiconductor Q2 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary

against this

No AMI financial statements have been filed: the 8-K/A with audited financials and pro formas was not on EDGAR at 19 September 2026, so every AMI figure is management's description of a private company it bought from a private-equity seller.
The Q3 guide itself carries the first evidence against the margin story: combined non-GAAP gross margin of 69.5% is below the FPGA business's 70% because of the AMI hardware line.

forwardwritten 2026-09-19

פירוט מקורות ההכנסה

מקור	משקל במכירות (הרבעון השני של 2026)	איך
מחשוב ותקשורת	62.6%	שבבי FPGA לשרתים, לאחסון, לרשתות, למחשבים אישיים ולתשתיות אלחוטיות וקוויות, שנמכרים בעיקר דרך מפיצים.
תעשייה ומערכות משובצות	37.4%	שבבי FPGA לאוטומציה במפעלים, לרובוטיקה, לרכב, לאינטרנט של הדברים התעשייתי, לבית חכם ולמוצרי צריכה, שנמכרים אף הם בעיקר דרך מפיצים.
קושחת AMI	לא פורסם	קושחת אתחול לשרתים שנמכרת ברישיון (כ-60%) ותוכנת ניהול (כ-40%). ההנהלה צופה הכנסות של יותר מ-200 מיליון דולר ב-2026.

ההנהלה

פורד טמר עומד בראש Lattice מספטמבר 2024; לפני כן ניהל את Inphi עד שנרכשה בידי Marvell. לורנצו פלורס, שהגיע מ-Intel, הוא סמנכ״ל הכספים מפברואר 2025. בעלי העניין מחזיקים הרבה פחות מ-1% מהחברה; הבעלים הם מנהלי קרנות גדולים. הבונוס השנתי נקבע לפי המכירות, הרווח המתואם ויעדים אישיים, ורוב הקצאות המניות לפי צמיחת המכירות ומחיר המניה מול השוק. אף רכיב לא קשור למזומנים או לרווח הרשמי.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 3 טענות

C54עובדהhigh confidence

Ford Tamer has been president and chief executive since September 2024, after running Inphi from February 2012 until Marvell acquired it in April 2021 and a spell as an operating partner at Francisco Partners; Lorenzo Flores, formerly chief financial officer of Intel Foundry and vice chairman of KIOXIA, has been chief financial officer since 10 February 2025.

sourceLattice Semiconductor proxy statement (DEF 14A), filed 18…primary

current state · 2026-03-18written 2026-10-04

C55עובדהhigh confidence

At the 2 March 2026 record date all directors and executive officers as a group beneficially owned 845,964 shares, 0.62% of the company; Ford Tamer's 285,745 shares were the largest insider holding, under 1%. There is one class of common stock; the holders above 5% were T. Rowe Price Investment Management (15.2%), T. Rowe Price Associates (13.2%), Vanguard (10.1%) and BlackRock (10.0%).

sourceLattice Semiconductor proxy statement (DEF 14A), filed 18…primary

current state · 2026-03-02written 2026-10-04

C56עובדהhigh confidence

The 2025 Corporate Incentive Plan weighted non-GAAP operating income, revenue and management business objectives a third each and paid 90% of target, in equity for vice presidents and above. More than 57% of executive equity was PRSUs: TSR against the Russell 3000 over three years, and revenue-growth PRSUs that vest only where yearly growth beats an industry benchmark, in four periods from 2026 to 2029. No award pays on GAAP earnings, cash flow or return on capital.

sourceLattice Semiconductor proxy statement (DEF 14A), filed 18…primary

historical · FY2025 pay planwritten 2026-10-04

02

היתרון התחרותי, ומי מאיים עליו

למה הלקוחות נשארים

ברגע שהשבב מתוכנן לתוך לוח, ההגיון של החשמל, החיישנים והאבטחה בלוח נכתב בשבילו. מעבר למתחרה פירושו תכנון מחדש של הלוח, קוד חדש ובדיקה חוזרת של מסלול האבטחה, והכול כדי לחסוך כמה דולרים. לכן לקוחות כמעט לא עוברים באמצע דור של מוצר.

זה ניכר בשיעור הרווח הגולמי: 70.3% ברבעון יוני 2026, ו-68.2% ב-2025, אחרי שנה שבה המכירות ירדו ב-30.9%. AMD מציינת את Lattice כאחת המתחרות העיקריות שלה בשבבים האלה.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 3 טענות

C03עובדהhigh confidence

Q2 2026 revenue was $201.1M, up 62.2% year on year and 17.7% on the quarter, with a GAAP gross margin of 70.3%, GAAP operating income of $22.4M (11.1%), GAAP diluted EPS of $0.14 and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $0.53.

sourceLattice Semiconductor Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 4 July…primary Lattice Semiconductor Q2 2026 results release, Form 8-K…primary

historical · Q2 2026written 2026-09-19

C39עובדהhigh confidence

Fiscal 2025 GAAP income from operations was $11.2M (2.1% of revenue) and net income $3.1M ($0.02 a share), against non-GAAP EPS of $1.05; Q4 2025 was a GAAP net loss of $7.6M. Fiscal 2023, the last peak, earned $212.3M of operating income at a 28.8% margin.

sourceLattice Semiconductor Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 3…primary Lattice Semiconductor Q4 and full-year 2025 results release,…primary

historical · FY2023 to FY2025written 2026-09-19

C17עובדהhigh confidence

AMD's fiscal 2025 10-K names Altera, Lattice Semiconductor and Microsemi as its primary FPGA competitors, alongside ASSP vendors and the ASIC market; AMD's Embedded segment had $3.5B of revenue in 2025, down 3%, and $1.2B of operating income.

sourceAdvanced Micro Devices Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended…primary

current state · 2025-12-27written 2026-09-19

האיום

הסכנה היא שהשבב ייעלם מהלוח. AMD,‏ Google,‏ Microsoft ו-Nvidia כתבו את Caliptra, עיצוב פתוח שמעביר את בדיקת האבטחה לתוך השבבים שלהן עצמן. Axiado מוכרת שבב אחד שעושה את כל העבודה של מודול הניהול, כולל זו של Lattice. וחברות הענן הגדולות תומכות ב-OpenBMC, תוכנה חופשית שמתחרה ב-AMI.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 3 טענות

C19עובדהhigh confidence

Caliptra is an open-source silicon root of trust whose specification is contributed by AMD, Google, Microsoft and Nvidia; its stated objective is to define root-of-trust capabilities implemented inside the SoC or ASIC of datacenter devices (SSD, NIC, CPU, GPU), and it explicitly leaves board-level integration out of scope.

sourceCaliptra 2.0 specification - CHIPS Allianceprimary

against this

Caliptra's own scope statement is an SoC-internal root of trust for measurement; it does not sequence power, bridge buses or verify a BMC image from outside the SoC, which is the job the discrete control FPGA does.
Lattice's Q1 2026 call frames its FPGAs as companions to CPUs, GPUs and BMCs rather than rivals, and AMI as silicon-neutral firmware validated across those same vendors.

current state · 2026-09-19written 2026-09-19

C22עובדהmedium confidence

Axiado announced in October 2023 a family of DC-SCM 2.0 modules (SCM3000) built on its single-chip TCU that integrates baseboard-management controller, platform root of trust, TPM and CPLD functions, which it describes as a single-chip DC-SCM solution. The page was live and unchanged when read on 19 September 2026.

sourceAxiado - Axiado Elevates Data Center Security with OCP-Based…primary

against this

Axiado is a private start-up and publishes no shipment or customer figures; three years after the announcement no OCP module in the marketplace listing found here names its device, and Lattice's server revenue grew 85% in 2025 and faster in 2026.

current state · 2026-09-19written 2026-09-19

C20עובדהhigh confidence

OpenBMC is a Linux Foundation open-source baseboard-management firmware stack for enterprise, HPC, telco and cloud-scale data centres, built on a code base IBM contributed and supported by Facebook, Google, Intel and Microsoft.

sourceLinux Foundation - OpenBMC Project community comes together…primary

against this

Management says AMI's firmware is the first brought up on a new CPU or GPU and that its licensees include hyperscalers, OEMs and ODMs, so an open stack has not displaced the licence at the platform-enablement stage; that is the seller's account and no licensee has confirmed it.

current state · 2026-09-19written 2026-09-19

המתחרות: AMD, ועוד שלוש: פרטיות, פיתוח פנימי של לקוחות או נסחרות בחו״ל.

פירוט המתחרים

סימול	מתחרה	תחומי התחרות	שלב	בסיס להשוואה
לא נסחרת בבורסה	Caliptra, שורש אמון ברמת הסיליקון בקוד פתוח, שהוגדר בידי AMD,‏ Google,‏ Microsoft ו-Nvidia במסגרת CHIPS Allianceבסיס להשוואה: לא נסחר בבורסה	שבבי FPGA של Lattice	כבר נמכר	לא נסחרת בבורסה
חברה פרטית	מודולי SCM3000 DC-SCM 2.0 של Axiado, המבוססים על שבב ה-TCU היחיד שלהבסיס להשוואה: חברה פרטית	שבבי FPGA של Lattice	כבר נמכר	חברה פרטית
AMD	שבבי MAX 10 ו-Agilex 3 של Altera, ושבבי ה-FPGA מהקצה הנמוך Spartan ו-Artix של AMDבסיס להשוואה: מוצר שונה	שבבי FPGA של Lattice	כבר נמכר	מוצר שונה
לא נסחרת בבורסה	OpenBMC, קושחה בקוד פתוח של Linux Foundation לניהול לוח האם, שנתמכת בידי Facebook,‏ Google,‏ Intel,‏ IBM ו-Microsoftבסיס להשוואה: לא נסחר בבורסה	קושחת הפלטפורמה של AMI	כבר נמכר	לא נסחרת בבורסה

03

פוטנציאל הצמיחה

גודל ההזדמנות

ההנהלה מציינת עד 20 מיליון שרתים ב-2026, עם כשלושה מהשבבים שלה בכל אחד: בערך 60 מיליון שבבים בשנה. את הגודל בדולרים אי אפשר לחשב, כי מחיר השבב אינו מפורסם.

ההוצאה על שרתים הייתה 453.5 מיליארד דולר ב-2025 וצפויה להגיע ל-647.0 מיליארד ב-2026. המכירות של Lattice במחשוב ובתקשורת היו 292.7 מיליון דולר, כ-0.06% מהסכום הזה.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 4 טענות

C28טענת ההנהלהlow confidence

Management cites a DIGITIMES forecast of up to 20 million servers in 2026 (16.5 million on the Q1 call), models about three Lattice FPGAs per server, said servers were about 38% of Q1 2026 revenue, expects AI-related revenue to exceed 25% of 2026 revenue, and says AMI doubles its serviceable market from about $6B to about $12B over three to four years.

sourceLattice Semiconductor Q2 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary Lattice Semiconductor Q1 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary

against this

IDC measured server units up only 3.3% in Q1 2026 while Lattice's Compute and Communications revenue rose 86%, so most of the growth is attach and price rather than unit growth, which is the harder part to verify from outside.
The server forecast moved from 16.5 million to 20 million between the May and August calls, and the serviceable-market figures are the company's own.

forwardwritten 2026-09-19

C26עובדהmedium confidence

IDC's server tracker put worldwide server spending at $453.5B in 2025, up 78.2%, and measured Q1 2026 spending up 30.7% with unit shipments up 3.3% year on year, noting that memory and NAND supply rather than demand is the ceiling on non-accelerated volumes.

sourceIDC - Servers Market Insights (Worldwide Quarterly Server…primary

historical · 2025 and Q1 2026written 2026-09-19

C27אומדןmedium confidence

IDC forecasts worldwide server spending of $647.0B in 2026, up 42.7%, and $930.6B in 2027, a 25.1% compound growth rate through 2030, assuming hyperscaler capex continues at announced levels.

sourceIDC - Servers Market Insights (Worldwide Quarterly Server…primary

against this

IDC's own page names the risk: the forecast assumes hyperscaler capex continues at announced levels and that memory supply stays constrained through the first half of 2027; a capex cut by any of the four largest buyers would take the rate down before it showed in server units.

forwardwritten 2026-09-19

C53עובדהhigh confidence

Fiscal 2025 Communications and Computing revenue was $292.7M against $228.1M in fiscal 2024, on the pre-2026 end-market definitions.

sourceLattice Semiconductor Q4 and full-year 2025 results release,…primary

historical · FY2025written 2026-09-19

מי כבר התחייב

ההנהלה אומרת ש-2027 “כמעט סגורה”. אבל בדוח השנתי שלה כתוב שאפשר לבטל הזמנות עד 60 יום לפני המסירה ללא קנס משמעותי, ושצבר ההזמנות לא ניבא את המכירות בעבר. לא נקוב שם של לקוח ולא כמות.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 2 טענות

C09טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence

Management says bookings accelerated, backlog extends well into 2027, '2027 is pretty much booked', and capacity agreements are being put in place with suppliers and, in turn, with customers and partners.

sourceLattice Semiconductor Q2 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary Lattice Semiconductor Q1 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary

against this

The fiscal 2025 10-K states that backlog has historically not been a predictor of future sales because purchase orders can generally be revised or cancelled up to 60 days before delivery without significant penalty and part of revenue is turns business.
No backlog figure is filed anywhere, and the customer capacity agreements are described on a call and have not been filed as exhibits.

current state · 2026-08-04written 2026-09-19

C10עובדהhigh confidence

The fiscal 2025 10-K states that purchase orders can generally be revised or cancelled up to 60 days before the scheduled delivery date without significant penalty, and that backlog has historically not been a predictor of future sales.

sourceLattice Semiconductor Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 3…primary

current state · 2026-01-03written 2026-09-19

04

התוצאות

המספרים

היא צומחת?מהר

המכירות צמחו ב-33% ב-12 החודשים שהסתיימו ביולי 2026, מהר יותר מה-2.7% בשנה שהסתיימה בינואר 2026.

היא רווחית?בקושי

שיעור הרווח התפעולי הוא 7.4%, לעומת 29% בשנה שהסתיימה בדצמבר 2023.

הצמיחה משתלמת?משתלמת

ההוצאות התפעוליות אוכלות 62 סנט מכל דולר מכירות, לעומת 43 סנט בשנה שהסתיימה בינואר 2022.

התשואה על ההון גבוהה?נמוכה

התשואה על ההון המושקע היא 5.3% בשנה אחרי מס, לעומת 18% בשנה שהסתיימה בינואר 2022.

היא מייצרת מזומנים?הרבה

31% מהמכירות הפכו לתזרים מזומנים חופשי: 199 מיליון דולר ב-12 החודשים האחרונים.

עד כמה היא יציבה?תנודתית

צמיחת המכירות השנתית נעה בין ‎−31% ל-‎+28% בחמש השנים האחרונות, והמכירות ירדו באחת מהן.

בעלי המניות מדוללים?לא

מספר המניות ירד ב-1.3% בארבע שנים וחצי, והתגמול במניות מסתכם ב-16% מהמכירות.

כל המספרים

נתונים מדוחות ה-10-K וה-10-Q של החברה, נכון ל-4 באוקטובר 2026. שנת הכספים של החברה מסתיימת בינואר.

	ינואר 2022	דצמבר 2022	דצמבר 2023	דצמבר 2024	ינואר 2026	12 חודשים עד יולי 2026
גודל וצמיחה
מכירות	$515M	$660M	$737M	$509M	$523M	$651M
צמיחת המכירות	+26%	+28%	+12%	−31%	+2.7%	+33%
רווח
שיעור הרווח הגולמי	62%	68%	70%	67%	68%	69%
שיעור הרווח התפעולי	20%	28%	29%	6.8%	2.1%	7.4%
שיעור הרווח הנקי	19%	27%	35%	12%	0.6%	5.6%
עלות הצמיחה, לכל דולר מכירות
מחקר ופיתוח	21%	21%	22%	31%	36%	34%
הוצאות מכירה, הנהלה וכלליות	20%	18%	19%	23%	29%	27%
תגמול מבוסס מניות	9.0%	8.4%	9.5%	10%	22%	16%
השקעות הוניות	1.9%	3.5%	2.7%	4.1%	8.1%	6.8%
מזומנים
תזרים מפעילות שוטפת	$168M	$239M	$270M	$141M	$175M	$243M
תזרים מזומנים חופשי	$158M	$215M	$249M	$120M	$133M	$199M
מאזן
מזומנים והשקעות לזמן קצר	$132M	$146M	$128M	$136M	$134M	$173M
חוב	$158M	$129M	$0	-	-	-
מזומן נטו	−$26.4M	$17.0M	$128M	-	-	-
תשואות ומניות
תשואה על ההון המושקע	18%	31%	32%	4.9%	-	5.3%
מספר המניות (בדילול מלא)	142M	141M	140M	138M	138M	140M

עלות הצמיחה

כשהמכירות גדלות, Lattice הופכת רווחית יותר, כי הוצאות המחקר והמכירות שלה גדלות לאט יותר מהמכירות. גם ההפך נכון: בשפל של 2024 ההוצאות המשיכו לעלות והרווח כמעט נעלם. התגמול במניות הוא עכשיו עלות גדולה בהרבה מאשר בגאות הקודמת.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 2 טענות

C58עובדהhigh confidence

Per sales dollar, R&D was 21.4 cents in FY2021 and 21.7 in FY2023, rose to 35.9 in FY2025 and was 33.5 over the four quarters to July 2026; selling, general and administrative went 20.5, 18.6, 29.4 and 27.0; stock pay 9.0, 9.5, 22.1 and 16.0. GAAP operating margin went from 19.6% to 28.8%, then 2.1%, then 7.4%. The R&D line on the income statement is the same figure as the filer's R&D tag.

sourceLattice Semiconductor Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 30…primary Lattice Semiconductor Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 3…primary Lattice Semiconductor Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 4 July…primary

against this

Non-GAAP operating expenses are guided to $83M to $90M in Q3 2026 against $67.1M in Q2 (C08, C41), part of it AMI, so the cost base is stepping up again as the deal lands.

historical · FY2021 to the four quarters to July 2026written 2026-10-04

C05עובדהhigh confidence

Stock-based compensation was $44.9M in Q2 2026 ($42.2M in operating expenses, $2.6M in cost of sales), about 22% of revenue; $72.5M in the first half of 2026; and $115.6M for fiscal 2025, 22% of that year's revenue. It is excluded from every non-GAAP figure.

sourceLattice Semiconductor Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 4 July…primary Lattice Semiconductor Q2 2026 results release, Form 8-K…primary Lattice Semiconductor Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 3…primary

historical · Q2 2026 and FY2025written 2026-09-19

הדוח האחרון (4 באוגוסט)

הרבעון שהסתיים ביולי 2026, לפי הדוחות.

62%

צמיחת המכירות

לעומת הרבעון המקביל אשתקד

17.7%

צמיחה לעומת הרבעון הקודם

לעומת 17.2% ברבעון שלפני כן

11¢

רווח תפעולי

לכל דולר מכירות

המכירות עלו ב-62.2% ל-201.1 מיליון דולר ברבעון יוני 2026, מעל הקצה העליון של טווח התחזית של החברה עצמה, ומכירות שבבי המחשוב והתקשורת עלו ב-83%. ההנהלה צופה צמיחה של כ-65% ברבעון ספטמבר.

השוק מכר בכל זאת: המניה ירדה ב-7.0% למחרת ועוד ב-19.6% בתוך שישה שבועות, כי התחזית הורידה את שיעור הרווח הגולמי והצביעה על קיבולת הרכבה מוגבלת ועל עלויות עולות. לפי הדוחות הרשמיים הרווח היה 14 סנט למניה; בלי התגמול במניות, 53.

מה זה אומר על התזההדוח חיזק את התוכנית: המכירות עלו מעל הטווח של החברה עצמה, והרבעון הבא אמור לצמוח אפילו מהר יותר. הוא גם חשף את הסיכונים: שיעור רווח נמוך יותר, קיבולת הרכבה מוגבלת והזמנות שהלקוחות יכולים לבטל. המחיר כבר מגלם את התוכנית, ולכן הציון שלנו נשאר: ניטרלית.

הרבעון בפירוט

7.6%Q3 25

9.3%Q4 25

17.2%Q1 26

17.7%Q2 26

צמיחת המכירות לעומת הרבעון הקודם, לפי הדוחות.

רווח למניה $0.53 לעומת $0.44 צפוי; $0.14 לפי הדוחות, והפער הוא הסעיפים שהחברה מנטרלת.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 5 טענות

C03עובדהhigh confidence

Q2 2026 revenue was $201.1M, up 62.2% year on year and 17.7% on the quarter, with a GAAP gross margin of 70.3%, GAAP operating income of $22.4M (11.1%), GAAP diluted EPS of $0.14 and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $0.53.

sourceLattice Semiconductor Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 4 July…primary Lattice Semiconductor Q2 2026 results release, Form 8-K…primary

historical · Q2 2026written 2026-09-19

C04עובדהhigh confidence

Compute and Communications revenue was $126.0M in Q2 2026 (63% of revenue) against $68.7M a year earlier, up 83%; Industrial and Embedded was $75.1M against $55.3M, up 36%.

sourceLattice Semiconductor Q2 2026 results release, Form 8-K…primary Lattice Semiconductor Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 4 July…primary

historical · Q2 2026written 2026-09-19

C08טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence

Management guides Q3 2026 FPGA revenue of $210M to $230M (about 65% growth at the midpoint), $245M to $265M including roughly two months of AMI, a non-GAAP gross margin of 69.5% plus or minus 1% (70% for the FPGA business), non-GAAP operating expenses of $83M to $90M and non-GAAP EPS of $0.54 to $0.58.

sourceLattice Semiconductor Q2 2026 results release, Form 8-K…primary Lattice Semiconductor Q2 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary

against this

The same call attributes the gross-margin step-down to a low-margin hardware pass-through business inside AMI and to industry-wide assembly constraints and expedite fees that will be partly absorbed.
The company's own filing says purchase orders can be cancelled up to 60 days before delivery, so a guide built on bookings is not a guide built on firm orders.

forwardwritten 2026-09-19

C45הסקהmedium confidence

On its last two prints the market sold the shares despite results at or above guidance: 13.2% after an in-line Q3 2025 with a raised Q4 guide, which coverage attributed to profit-taking after a run-up, and 7.0% after a Q2 2026 beat with a 65% growth guide, on the gross-margin step-down, assembly constraints and cost pass-through raised in the Q&A, followed by a further 19.6% fall over six weeks.

derivedC32 for the price moves; C08 and C30 for the margin guide and the supply answer; the Q2 2026 Q&A itself, where five of eight analysts asked about margin, supply or cost; S23 for the coverage stating the objection

against this

Both falls happened after large rallies (from $61 to $73 before November, from $95 to $155 before August), and the 252-session decomposition shows the multiple still 26.6% higher than a year ago, so the sells read as positioning at least as much as as a verdict on the print.
Every listed FPGA and networking-silicon name is not checked here for the same August pattern, so a sector-wide de-rating cannot be ruled out as the cause.

historical · November 2025 to September 2026written 2026-09-19

C31עובדהhigh confidence

Q1 2026 was guided at $158M to $172M and printed $170.9M; Q2 2026 was guided at $175M to $195M and printed $201.1M, above the high end, with non-GAAP EPS of $0.53 against a $0.42 to $0.46 guide; across the vendor's eight recorded prints, the four 2025 quarters matched the adjusted EPS estimate exactly and the two 2026 quarters beat it by 10.7% and 19.1%.

sourceLattice Semiconductor Q4 and full-year 2025 results release,…primary Lattice Semiconductor Q1 2026 results release, Form 8-K…primary Lattice Semiconductor Q2 2026 results release, Form 8-K…primary Research pack, frozen at content/LSCC/research-pack.jsonsecondary

historical · Q1 2025 to Q2 2026written 2026-09-19

לאן הלך הכסף

היא לוותה 925 מיליון דולר כדי לשלם על AMI והנפיקה כ-5.2 מיליון מניות למוכרת של AMI. לפני העסקה היו לה 173.3 מיליון דולר במזומן וללא חוב; היא מתכננת להוריד את החוב לפחות משנתיים של רווח תזרימי עד סוף 2027.

בעלי עניין ברבעון השני של 2026: 17 רכישות ו-35 מכירות, לפי דיווחי Form 4 שלהם.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 4 טענות

C12עובדהhigh confidence

The 2026 Credit Agreement provides a $950M delayed-draw senior secured term loan, of which $925M was drawn on 27 July 2026, and a $200M revolver, both maturing 30 June 2031, at SOFR plus 1.00% to 1.75%, amortising 1.25% of principal a quarter in the first year, 1.875% in quarters five to twelve and 2.5% after, with net leverage and interest coverage covenants.

sourceLattice Semiconductor Form 8-K, Item 1.01 - Second Amended…primary Lattice Semiconductor Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 4 July…primary

current state · 2026-07-27written 2026-09-19

C11עובדהhigh confidence

Lattice completed the acquisition of AMI on 27 July 2026 for about $1.65B: roughly $1B in cash and about 5.2 million shares (about $650M at signing), on a cash-free, debt-free basis with escrow and working-capital adjustments.

sourceLattice Semiconductor Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 4 July…primary Lattice Semiconductor Completes Acquisition of AMI, Form 8-K…primary Lattice to Acquire AMI, announcement release, Form 8-K…primary

historical · Q3 2026written 2026-09-19

C15עובדהhigh confidence

At 4 July 2026 Lattice held $173.3M of cash and no debt; operating cash flow was $138.6M in the first half of 2026 and $88.3M in Q2, capital expenditure $17.6M in the half, and Q2 free cash flow $81.3M, a 40.4% margin.

sourceLattice Semiconductor Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 4 July…primary Lattice Semiconductor Q2 2026 results release, Form 8-K…primary

current state · 2026-07-04written 2026-09-19

C14טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence

Management plans to reduce leverage to below 2 times EBITDA by the end of 2027, on a combined free cash flow it described as roughly 40% of revenue.

sourceLattice Semiconductor Q2 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary Lattice Semiconductor Q1 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary

against this

The plan needs the AMI EBITDA and the FPGA growth to arrive; on Q2 2026 alone, annualised adjusted EBITDA of about $346M against $925M of debt is 2.7 times before any AMI contribution.

forwardwritten 2026-09-19

05

המחיר, ואיפה אנחנו חלוקים על השוק

בקצרה. מלא. המחיר מגלם את התוכנית של Lattice: הזמנות שנרשמו ל-2027 והופכות למכירות, ו-AMI, עסק הקושחה שרכשה, שמרוויח כמה שההנהלה מבטיחה. אם הצמיחה תיעצר, יישאר מעט מאוד מרווח.

מחיר המניה

$110.96

שער סגירה, 18 בספטמבר

מכפיל הרווח

419.5

המכפיל המקובל בשש השנים האחרונות: 120.5

המניה נמצאת 29.3% מתחת לשיאה בזמן שהצמיחה בדוחות מאיצה. פעמיים כבר מכר השוק את Lattice אחרי תוצאות טובות, בגלל מה שהן אמרו על שיעורי הרווח ועל האספקה ולא על המכירות.

המבחן הבא ב-2 בנובמבר: הרבעון הראשון עם AMI בתוך החברה, והראשון שבו השבבים ו-AMI מדווחים בנפרד.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 3 טענות

C32עובדהhigh confidence

The shares closed at $110.96 on 18 September 2026, 29.3% below the 52-week high of $157.01 and up 65.8% over 252 sessions, of which revenue per share explains 30.9 points and the multiple 26.6 points; over 60 sessions they fell 22.9%. They fell 13.2% the session after the Q3 2025 print, rose 16.3% after the fiscal 2025 print, fell 4.3% on the day the AMI deal closed and fell 7.0% the session after the Q2 2026 print. Trailing revenue of $651.1M is the filed sum of the two 2026 quarters ($372.0M in the 10-Q) and the last two 2025 quarters in the fiscal 2025 release.

sourceResearch pack, frozen at content/LSCC/research-pack.jsonsecondary FMP end-of-day price history, LSCC, September 2025 to…secondary Lattice Semiconductor Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 4 July…primary Lattice Semiconductor Q4 and full-year 2025 results release,…primary

historical · September 2025 to September 2026written 2026-09-19

C45הסקהmedium confidence

On its last two prints the market sold the shares despite results at or above guidance: 13.2% after an in-line Q3 2025 with a raised Q4 guide, which coverage attributed to profit-taking after a run-up, and 7.0% after a Q2 2026 beat with a 65% growth guide, on the gross-margin step-down, assembly constraints and cost pass-through raised in the Q&A, followed by a further 19.6% fall over six weeks.

derivedC32 for the price moves; C08 and C30 for the margin guide and the supply answer; the Q2 2026 Q&A itself, where five of eight analysts asked about margin, supply or cost; S23 for the coverage stating the objection

against this

Both falls happened after large rallies (from $61 to $73 before November, from $95 to $155 before August), and the 252-session decomposition shows the multiple still 26.6% higher than a year ago, so the sells read as positioning at least as much as as a verdict on the print.
Every listed FPGA and networking-silicon name is not checked here for the same August pattern, so a sector-wide de-rating cannot be ruled out as the cause.

historical · November 2025 to September 2026written 2026-09-19

C50עובדהhigh confidence

Lattice reports one segment; from Q1 2026 it discloses revenue in two end-market groups, Compute and Communications and Industrial and Embedded, derived from distributor and end-customer data with judgement, and management says it will report FPGA and AMI revenue and gross margin separately from Q3 2026.

sourceLattice Semiconductor Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 4 July…primary Lattice Semiconductor Q2 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary

current state · 2026-08-04written 2026-09-19

ההימורהמחיר כבר מגלם הצלחה

אם ההימור מצליח

0.8×

מהשווי היום, במכפיל שצוין

אם ההימור נכשל

נשארים 63%

מהשווי בשוק היום: שאר החברה, בניכוי החוב שלה

איך לקרוא את המכפיל

לפי הדוחות הרשמיים, שרואים בתגמול במניות לעובדים עלות, Lattice הרוויחה 2 סנט למניה ב-2025, ולכן לפי המדד הזה מכפיל הרווח גבוה מאוד.

על הרווח המתואם שהאנליסטים צופים לשנה שתסתיים בינואר 2028, שאינו כולל תגמול במניות, המכפיל הוא כ-35. שווי החברה כולה הוא כ-16 פעמים המכירות הצפויות ברבעון הזה, כשהן מוכפלות לשנה שלמה.

מול ההיסטוריה שלה. המכפילים גבוהים בהרבה מהמקובל בהיסטוריה שלה, ביחס לרווח יותר מכל, כי הרווח עדיין מתאושש מהשפל. ביחס למכירות הפער קטן יותר.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 5 טענות

C34אומדןmedium confidence

Pro forma for the deal the enterprise value is about $16.0B ($15.2B market value plus $925M of term debt less about $100M of cash after the $75M paid at closing), about 15.7 times the Q3 2026 guide midpoint annualised to $1.02B; against the panel's $3.21 of non-GAAP EPS for the year ending January 2028 the shares trade at about 35 times, and at about 52 times the $2.13 expected for the year ending January 2027.

derivedC33 for the market value and trailing figures; C12 and C11 for the debt and cash used; C08 for the guide midpoint; the pack's analyst_estimates for the panel EPS (9 analysts for both years) and the 18 September close of $110.96. The panel's EPS is non-GAAP and therefore excludes the stock pay in C05.

against this

If the panel's year-two figure of $4.24 (6 analysts) for the year ending January 2029 is right, the multiple falls to about 26 times two years out, which is where a 40% grower with a 40% adjusted operating margin is not obviously dear.
The 126-session decomposition shows the multiple fell 3.8% while revenue per share rose 21.5%, so the de-rating has already begun and the price is paying less for each dollar of sales than in March.

current state · 2026-09-18written 2026-09-19

C40הסקהhigh confidence

The adjusted profit the price is struck on excludes stock pay worth about a fifth of revenue; on GAAP the company earned $0.14 a share in its best quarter and $0.02 for fiscal 2025, so the earnings multiple is on a definition of profit that treats roughly $180M a year of employee pay as if it were not a cost.

derivedC03 and C05 for the Q2 figures; C39 for fiscal 2025; the annualised figure is four times Q2 2026 stock-based compensation

against this

Stock pay is settled in shares rather than cash, and the company has offset the dilution with buybacks: diluted shares rose only 1.8% over the year while it spent $115M repurchasing stock, so the cost shows up in cash spent on buybacks rather than in the share count.
Every listed semiconductor peer reports on the same non-GAAP basis and the panel's estimates are struck on it, so the multiple is comparable across the group even if the profit definition is generous.

current state · 2026-07-04written 2026-09-19

C39עובדהhigh confidence

Fiscal 2025 GAAP income from operations was $11.2M (2.1% of revenue) and net income $3.1M ($0.02 a share), against non-GAAP EPS of $1.05; Q4 2025 was a GAAP net loss of $7.6M. Fiscal 2023, the last peak, earned $212.3M of operating income at a 28.8% margin.

sourceLattice Semiconductor Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 3…primary Lattice Semiconductor Q4 and full-year 2025 results release,…primary

historical · FY2023 to FY2025written 2026-09-19

C09טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence

Management says bookings accelerated, backlog extends well into 2027, '2027 is pretty much booked', and capacity agreements are being put in place with suppliers and, in turn, with customers and partners.

sourceLattice Semiconductor Q2 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary Lattice Semiconductor Q1 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary

against this

The fiscal 2025 10-K states that backlog has historically not been a predictor of future sales because purchase orders can generally be revised or cancelled up to 60 days before delivery without significant penalty and part of revenue is turns business.
No backlog figure is filed anywhere, and the customer capacity agreements are described on a call and have not been filed as exhibits.

current state · 2026-08-04written 2026-09-19

C13טענת ההנהלהlow confidence

Management expects AMI to generate more than $200M of revenue in 2026 with a non-GAAP gross margin above 75% by year end and adjusted EBITDA margins of about 40%; about 60% of its revenue is boot firmware and 40% infrastructure manageability; it expects about 25% growth in 2027 before any revenue synergy; a low-margin hardware pass-through line is being exited by the end of 2026; the deal is expected to be accretive to non-GAAP EPS from Q4 2026.

sourceLattice Semiconductor Q2 2026 results release, Form 8-K…primary Lattice Semiconductor Q2 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary

against this

No AMI financial statements have been filed: the 8-K/A with audited financials and pro formas was not on EDGAR at 19 September 2026, so every AMI figure is management's description of a private company it bought from a private-equity seller.
The Q3 guide itself carries the first evidence against the margin story: combined non-GAAP gross margin of 69.5% is below the FPGA business's 70% because of the AMI hardware line.

forwardwritten 2026-09-19

המכפיל מול המתחרים

אף אחת מהמתחרות שלעיל אינה מוכרת את אותו מוצר לאותם לקוחות כחלק משמעותי מפעילותה. השוואת מחירים דורשת לפחות שתיים, ולכן המחיר נבחן מול ההיסטוריה של החברה עצמה.

נבדקה גם והוצאה מההשוואה: Microchip Technology Incorporated (תחליף, לא אותו מוצר).

מתחרות פרטיות או זרות שאין להן מחיר להשוואה: Altera Corporation,‏ Efinix,‏ Inc., Gowin Semiconductor Corp., Insyde Software Corp., Phoenix Technologies Ltd.

ההימור: מה הוא מניב אם יצליח

ההימור הוא על AMI לבדה: הקוד שמאתחל שרת ומאפשר לנהל אותו מרחוק. המכירות ושיעורי הרווח שלה הם עדיין נתונים של ההנהלה, ועוד לא הופיעו באף דיווח רשמי.

עסק השבבים, בקצב הנוכחי שלו ובמכפיל שהקונים משלמים היום, מכסה פחות משני שלישים מהמחיר. גם אם AMI תצמח כפי שההנהלה מבטיחה, החברה כולה תהיה שווה פחות מהיום: הימור יקר.

אם AMI לא תרוויח דבר, לבעלי המניות יישארו עסק השבבים וההלוואה שמימנה את רכישת AMI.

רווחי הקושחה של AMI בעוד שנתיים עד שלוש	הכנסות של AMI שנדרשות בשנה, במיליוני דולרים	במכפיל שצוין
$76.00M	כ-200, כשנשאר 100%	0.8×
95.00 מיליון דולר (ההצלחה הגדולה)	כ-250, כשנשאר 100%	0.8×
$133.00M	כ-350, כשנשאר 100%	0.9×

כדי להניב פי 2 (הימור הוגן) נדרשים רווחים של כ-595.71 מיליון דולר מהקושחה של AMI (הכנסות של AMI בהיקף של כ-1.6 מיליארד דולר בשנה); כדי להניב פי 5 (הימור זול), כ-1.90 מיליארד דולר (כ-5.0 מיליארד דולר הכנסות בשנה), באותו מכפיל.

כל שורה היא הקושחה של AMI לבדה, בתוספת שאר החברה (שבבי ה-FPGA של Lattice), שנספרת בכ-9.55 מיליארד דולר.

השלבים שעליה לעבור

הושלם AMI נרכשה ומומנה: מיליארד דולר במזומן ו-5.2 מיליון מניות
בתהליך יציאה מקו החומרה בשיעור רווח נמוך שעובר דרכה ללקוחות מועד: דצמבר 2026
טרם התחיל ההכנסות ושיעור הרווח הגולמי של AMI מדווחים בנפרד בדוח של Lattice מועד: נובמבר 2026
טרם התחיל הכנסות AMI של כ-250 מיליון דולר ב-2027, צמיחה של כ-25% מועד: פברואר 2028
טרם התחיל יחס חוב ל-EBITDA נמוך מפי שניים מועד: דצמבר 2027

הפירוט שמאחורי הדירוג

Rating

Expensive

the big win's payoff against the 2× and 5× lines

Cheap bet at about

$18.80

‎83% מתחת למחיר (שער סגירה, 18 בספטמבר)

העסק החדש

0.6×

what AMI platform firmware is worth if it works, against what the price pays for it

הראיות (באנגלית) · 7 טענות

C13טענת ההנהלהlow confidence

Management expects AMI to generate more than $200M of revenue in 2026 with a non-GAAP gross margin above 75% by year end and adjusted EBITDA margins of about 40%; about 60% of its revenue is boot firmware and 40% infrastructure manageability; it expects about 25% growth in 2027 before any revenue synergy; a low-margin hardware pass-through line is being exited by the end of 2026; the deal is expected to be accretive to non-GAAP EPS from Q4 2026.

sourceLattice Semiconductor Q2 2026 results release, Form 8-K…primary Lattice Semiconductor Q2 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary

against this

No AMI financial statements have been filed: the 8-K/A with audited financials and pro formas was not on EDGAR at 19 September 2026, so every AMI figure is management's description of a private company it bought from a private-equity seller.
The Q3 guide itself carries the first evidence against the margin story: combined non-GAAP gross margin of 69.5% is below the FPGA business's 70% because of the AMI hardware line.

forwardwritten 2026-09-19

C59טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence

On the Q2 2026 call the chief financial officer guided AMI's revenue for its first two months inside Lattice to $33M-$37M, said the business runs at gross margins in the mid to high 70s and EBITDA over 40%, and guided a non-GAAP tax rate of 4% to 6% for Q3 2026.

sourceLattice Semiconductor Q2 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary

against this

None of AMI's figures has yet appeared in a Lattice filing: the 10-Q for the quarter that includes it is the first, and management says it will only then report AMI's revenue and gross margin separately (C50).
The partial quarter still carries a low-margin hardware pass-through line being exited by the end of 2026 (C13), so the first reported margin will not be the go-forward one.

forwardwritten 2026-10-11

C60אומדןmedium confidence

Held at the Q3 2026 FPGA guide's midpoint for a year, the FPGA business is about $880M of revenue and, at Q2's 36.9% non-GAAP net margin, about $325M of adjusted earnings; less roughly $52M a year of after-tax interest on the AMI term loan, about $273M.

derived$220M FPGA guide midpoint (C08) times four; Q2 non-GAAP EPS of $0.53 on 140.2M diluted shares (C03, C16) over Q2 revenue of $201.1M; $55M of interest, the middle of C51's range, at the 5% non-GAAP tax rate (C59)

against this

Management says 2027 is 'pretty much booked' and the panel expects far more than a plateau (C09, C34), so holding the FPGA business flat understates it if the backlog becomes revenue.
Q2's margin excludes stock pay of about a fifth of revenue (C05), so on GAAP the same business earns far less.

forwardwritten 2026-10-11

C34אומדןmedium confidence

Pro forma for the deal the enterprise value is about $16.0B ($15.2B market value plus $925M of term debt less about $100M of cash after the $75M paid at closing), about 15.7 times the Q3 2026 guide midpoint annualised to $1.02B; against the panel's $3.21 of non-GAAP EPS for the year ending January 2028 the shares trade at about 35 times, and at about 52 times the $2.13 expected for the year ending January 2027.

derivedC33 for the market value and trailing figures; C12 and C11 for the debt and cash used; C08 for the guide midpoint; the pack's analyst_estimates for the panel EPS (9 analysts for both years) and the 18 September close of $110.96. The panel's EPS is non-GAAP and therefore excludes the stock pay in C05.

against this

If the panel's year-two figure of $4.24 (6 analysts) for the year ending January 2029 is right, the multiple falls to about 26 times two years out, which is where a 40% grower with a 40% adjusted operating margin is not obviously dear.
The 126-session decomposition shows the multiple fell 3.8% while revenue per share rose 21.5%, so the de-rating has already begun and the price is paying less for each dollar of sales than in March.

current state · 2026-09-18written 2026-09-19

C11עובדהhigh confidence

Lattice completed the acquisition of AMI on 27 July 2026 for about $1.65B: roughly $1B in cash and about 5.2 million shares (about $650M at signing), on a cash-free, debt-free basis with escrow and working-capital adjustments.

sourceLattice Semiconductor Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 4 July…primary Lattice Semiconductor Completes Acquisition of AMI, Form 8-K…primary Lattice to Acquire AMI, announcement release, Form 8-K…primary

historical · Q3 2026written 2026-09-19

C12עובדהhigh confidence

The 2026 Credit Agreement provides a $950M delayed-draw senior secured term loan, of which $925M was drawn on 27 July 2026, and a $200M revolver, both maturing 30 June 2031, at SOFR plus 1.00% to 1.75%, amortising 1.25% of principal a quarter in the first year, 1.875% in quarters five to twelve and 2.5% after, with net leverage and interest coverage covenants.

sourceLattice Semiconductor Form 8-K, Item 1.01 - Second Amended…primary Lattice Semiconductor Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 4 July…primary

current state · 2026-07-27written 2026-09-19

C50עובדהhigh confidence

Lattice reports one segment; from Q1 2026 it discloses revenue in two end-market groups, Compute and Communications and Industrial and Embedded, derived from distributor and end-customer data with judgement, and management says it will report FPGA and AMI revenue and gross margin separately from Q3 2026.

sourceLattice Semiconductor Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 4 July…primary Lattice Semiconductor Q2 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary

current state · 2026-08-04written 2026-09-19

איפה אנחנו חלוקים על השוק

השוק חושב

מנצחת בשוק שרתי ה-AI, שצבר ההזמנות שלה מכסה את 2027, ולכן הירידה מאז אוגוסט היא הזדמנות לקנות.

אנחנו חושבים

הצמיחה אמיתית ומופיעה בדוחות, אבל זה מחיר הוגן לתוכנית, והתוכנית נושאת 925 מיליון דולר חוב והזמנות שאפשר לבטל.

ההמלצות של האנליסטים חיוביות ביותר מ-92% כבר שנה. אנחנו קוראים את מה שהשיחה לא מדגישה: לאן השבבים נשלחים, כמה קל לבטל הזמנות, כמה עולה התגמול במניות, ולקוחות שכותבים תחליפים משלהם.

הטענה נגדנו: אם מכירות השבבים ימשיכו לצמוח ביותר מ-40% בשנה גם ב-2027, שיעור הרווח יישמר סביב 70% ו-AMI תדווח על יותר מ-200 מיליון דולר, השוק צודק.

מה אומרים האנליסטים

המלצות חיוביות

92%

מתוך 13, 1 בספטמבר

לפני ארבעה חודשים

93%

מתוך 14, 1 במאי

הראיות (באנגלית) · 6 טענות

C35עובדהmedium confidence

The vendor's snapshot shows 15 buy, 1 hold and 1 sell ratings; its dated series shows 92.3% positive of 13 analysts on 1 September 2026, within 0.6 points of every reading for a year; coverage recorded two target increases after the Q2 print, to $175 and to $160.

sourceResearch pack, frozen at content/LSCC/research-pack.jsonsecondary Investing.com - Earnings call transcript: Lattice…tertiary

current state · 2026-09-01written 2026-09-19

C06עובדהhigh confidence

67% of Q2 2026 revenue shipped to Greater China addresses, up from 52% a year earlier, and 79% to Asia; the filing says the Greater China figure includes Hong Kong and that products shipped there may move on to other destinations.

sourceLattice Semiconductor Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 4 July…primary

historical · Q2 2026written 2026-09-19

C10עובדהhigh confidence

The fiscal 2025 10-K states that purchase orders can generally be revised or cancelled up to 60 days before the scheduled delivery date without significant penalty, and that backlog has historically not been a predictor of future sales.

sourceLattice Semiconductor Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 3…primary

current state · 2026-01-03written 2026-09-19

C05עובדהhigh confidence

Stock-based compensation was $44.9M in Q2 2026 ($42.2M in operating expenses, $2.6M in cost of sales), about 22% of revenue; $72.5M in the first half of 2026; and $115.6M for fiscal 2025, 22% of that year's revenue. It is excluded from every non-GAAP figure.

sourceLattice Semiconductor Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 4 July…primary Lattice Semiconductor Q2 2026 results release, Form 8-K…primary Lattice Semiconductor Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 3…primary

historical · Q2 2026 and FY2025written 2026-09-19

C19עובדהhigh confidence

Caliptra is an open-source silicon root of trust whose specification is contributed by AMD, Google, Microsoft and Nvidia; its stated objective is to define root-of-trust capabilities implemented inside the SoC or ASIC of datacenter devices (SSD, NIC, CPU, GPU), and it explicitly leaves board-level integration out of scope.

sourceCaliptra 2.0 specification - CHIPS Allianceprimary

against this

Caliptra's own scope statement is an SoC-internal root of trust for measurement; it does not sequence power, bridge buses or verify a BMC image from outside the SoC, which is the job the discrete control FPGA does.
Lattice's Q1 2026 call frames its FPGAs as companions to CPUs, GPUs and BMCs rather than rivals, and AMI as silicon-neutral firmware validated across those same vendors.

current state · 2026-09-19written 2026-09-19

C20עובדהhigh confidence

OpenBMC is a Linux Foundation open-source baseboard-management firmware stack for enterprise, HPC, telco and cloud-scale data centres, built on a code base IBM contributed and supported by Facebook, Google, Intel and Microsoft.

sourceLinux Foundation - OpenBMC Project community comes together…primary

against this

Management says AMI's firmware is the first brought up on a new CPU or GPU and that its licensees include hyperscalers, OEMs and ODMs, so an open stack has not displaced the licence at the platform-enablement stage; that is the seller's account and no licensee has confirmed it.

current state · 2026-09-19written 2026-09-19

06

מה יכול להשתבש, ואיך נדע

הסיכונים

הזמנות שעלולות להיעלם. אפשר לבטל את צבר ההזמנות עד 60 יום לפני המסירה, והחברה אומרת שהוא לא ניבא את המכירות.
לקוחות שמוותרים על השבב. Caliptra ומודולי ניהול על שבב אחד מוציאים את משימות האבטחה והבקרה משבב נפרד.
חוב מעסקת AMI. הריבית על ההלוואה של 925 מיליון דולר עשויה לצרוך בין 17% ל-20% מהרווח השנתי האחרון, לפני תגמול במניות.
סין ושני מפיצים. 67% מהמכירות ברבעון יוני נשלחו לסין רבתי, ושני מפיצים אחראים לרוב ההכנסות.
עבר מחזורי. המכירות ירדו ב-30.9% ב-2024, והחברה מכירה בכך שהשווקים שלה עלולים לרדת כל כך שוב.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 8 טענות

C10עובדהhigh confidence

The fiscal 2025 10-K states that purchase orders can generally be revised or cancelled up to 60 days before the scheduled delivery date without significant penalty, and that backlog has historically not been a predictor of future sales.

sourceLattice Semiconductor Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 3…primary

current state · 2026-01-03written 2026-09-19

C19עובדהhigh confidence

Caliptra is an open-source silicon root of trust whose specification is contributed by AMD, Google, Microsoft and Nvidia; its stated objective is to define root-of-trust capabilities implemented inside the SoC or ASIC of datacenter devices (SSD, NIC, CPU, GPU), and it explicitly leaves board-level integration out of scope.

sourceCaliptra 2.0 specification - CHIPS Allianceprimary

against this

Caliptra's own scope statement is an SoC-internal root of trust for measurement; it does not sequence power, bridge buses or verify a BMC image from outside the SoC, which is the job the discrete control FPGA does.
Lattice's Q1 2026 call frames its FPGAs as companions to CPUs, GPUs and BMCs rather than rivals, and AMI as silicon-neutral firmware validated across those same vendors.

current state · 2026-09-19written 2026-09-19

C22עובדהmedium confidence

Axiado announced in October 2023 a family of DC-SCM 2.0 modules (SCM3000) built on its single-chip TCU that integrates baseboard-management controller, platform root of trust, TPM and CPLD functions, which it describes as a single-chip DC-SCM solution. The page was live and unchanged when read on 19 September 2026.

sourceAxiado - Axiado Elevates Data Center Security with OCP-Based…primary

against this

Axiado is a private start-up and publishes no shipment or customer figures; three years after the announcement no OCP module in the marketplace listing found here names its device, and Lattice's server revenue grew 85% in 2025 and faster in 2026.

current state · 2026-09-19written 2026-09-19

C12עובדהhigh confidence

The 2026 Credit Agreement provides a $950M delayed-draw senior secured term loan, of which $925M was drawn on 27 July 2026, and a $200M revolver, both maturing 30 June 2031, at SOFR plus 1.00% to 1.75%, amortising 1.25% of principal a quarter in the first year, 1.875% in quarters five to twelve and 2.5% after, with net leverage and interest coverage covenants.

sourceLattice Semiconductor Form 8-K, Item 1.01 - Second Amended…primary Lattice Semiconductor Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 4 July…primary

current state · 2026-07-27written 2026-09-19

C51אומדןmedium confidence

Interest on the $925M term loan will run at roughly $50M to $60M a year if the all-in rate is 5.5% to 6.5%, about 17% to 20% of Q2 2026's annualised non-GAAP net income of $298M before AMI's contribution.

derivedC12 for the principal and the margin over SOFR; the all-in rate is assumed, since the applicable margin depends on a leverage ratio the filing does not disclose and no SOFR series is in the pack; C03 for Q2 non-GAAP net income of $74.4M

against this

Management says the deal is accretive to non-GAAP EPS from Q4 2026 after interest, and the loan amortises and can be prepaid without penalty, so the drag shrinks with each quarter of the described free cash flow.

forwardwritten 2026-09-19

C06עובדהhigh confidence

67% of Q2 2026 revenue shipped to Greater China addresses, up from 52% a year earlier, and 79% to Asia; the filing says the Greater China figure includes Hong Kong and that products shipped there may move on to other destinations.

sourceLattice Semiconductor Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 4 July…primary

historical · Q2 2026written 2026-09-19

C07עובדהhigh confidence

Distributors were 95% of Q2 2026 revenue; the two largest distributors were 49% and 39% of net receivables at 4 July 2026, and two distributors were 69% of fiscal 2025 revenue.

sourceLattice Semiconductor Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 4 July…primary Lattice Semiconductor Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 3…primary

current state · 2026-07-04written 2026-09-19

C02עובדהhigh confidence

Fiscal 2025 revenue was $523.3M, up 2.7%, after fiscal 2024 fell 30.9% to $509.4M from $737.2M in fiscal 2023.

sourceLattice Semiconductor Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 3…primary

historical · FY2023 to FY2025written 2026-09-19

שאלות פתוחות

מה AMI מרוויחה בפועל. ההכנסות ושיעורי הרווח שלה הם נתוני ההנהלה, ועדיין לא מופיעים בדוחות מבוקרים.
בכמה שרתים יש שבב של Lattice. אף גורם מחוץ לחברה לא סופר את השבבים בשרתים.
מי הלקוחות הסופיים. המכירות עוברות דרך מפיצים לכתובות שעשויות להיות מפעלי הרכבה.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 4 טענות

C13טענת ההנהלהlow confidence

Management expects AMI to generate more than $200M of revenue in 2026 with a non-GAAP gross margin above 75% by year end and adjusted EBITDA margins of about 40%; about 60% of its revenue is boot firmware and 40% infrastructure manageability; it expects about 25% growth in 2027 before any revenue synergy; a low-margin hardware pass-through line is being exited by the end of 2026; the deal is expected to be accretive to non-GAAP EPS from Q4 2026.

sourceLattice Semiconductor Q2 2026 results release, Form 8-K…primary Lattice Semiconductor Q2 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary

against this

No AMI financial statements have been filed: the 8-K/A with audited financials and pro formas was not on EDGAR at 19 September 2026, so every AMI figure is management's description of a private company it bought from a private-equity seller.
The Q3 guide itself carries the first evidence against the margin story: combined non-GAAP gross margin of 69.5% is below the FPGA business's 70% because of the AMI hardware line.

forwardwritten 2026-09-19

C28טענת ההנהלהlow confidence

Management cites a DIGITIMES forecast of up to 20 million servers in 2026 (16.5 million on the Q1 call), models about three Lattice FPGAs per server, said servers were about 38% of Q1 2026 revenue, expects AI-related revenue to exceed 25% of 2026 revenue, and says AMI doubles its serviceable market from about $6B to about $12B over three to four years.

sourceLattice Semiconductor Q2 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary Lattice Semiconductor Q1 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary

against this

IDC measured server units up only 3.3% in Q1 2026 while Lattice's Compute and Communications revenue rose 86%, so most of the growth is attach and price rather than unit growth, which is the harder part to verify from outside.
The server forecast moved from 16.5 million to 20 million between the May and August calls, and the serviceable-market figures are the company's own.

forwardwritten 2026-09-19

C06עובדהhigh confidence

67% of Q2 2026 revenue shipped to Greater China addresses, up from 52% a year earlier, and 79% to Asia; the filing says the Greater China figure includes Hong Kong and that products shipped there may move on to other destinations.

sourceLattice Semiconductor Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 4 July…primary

historical · Q2 2026written 2026-09-19

C07עובדהhigh confidence

Distributors were 95% of Q2 2026 revenue; the two largest distributors were 49% and 39% of net receivables at 4 July 2026, and two distributors were 69% of fiscal 2025 revenue.

sourceLattice Semiconductor Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 4 July…primary Lattice Semiconductor Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 3…primary

current state · 2026-07-04written 2026-09-19

מה ישנה את ההערכה שלנו

ניטרלית→אטרקטיביתצבר ההזמנות הופך להכנסות מדווחות, והדוחות של AMI מבוקרים
נדרשים כל אלה:
- ○מכירות השבבים גדלות ביותר מ-25% לעומת התקופה המקבילה אשתקד ארבעה רבעונים ברציפות, וכך האמירה ש-2027 סגורה הופכת למספרים מדווחים.ייבדק בדוח הבא, עד 2 בנובמבר
- ○AMI מדווחת על הכנסות של יותר מ-200 מיליון דולר ב-2027, בשיעור רווח גולמי של מעל 70% לפני תגמול במניות, בתוך הדוחות המבוקרים.ייבדק בדוח הבא, עד 2 בנובמבר
ניטרלית→אטרקטיביתהעסקה מורידה את המינוף מהמזומנים של עצמה
נדרשים כל אלה:
- ○החוב נטו ממזומנים יורד מתחת לשנתיים של רווח תזרימי עד סוף 2027, בלי הנפקת מניות חדשות.ייבדק בדוח הבא, עד 2 בנובמבר
- ○שיעור הרווח התפעולי לפני תגמול במניות נשאר 30% ומעלה בזמן שעלויות האספקה נספגות, מרמה של 38.3% ביוני.ייבדק בדוח הבא, עד 2 בנובמבר

נטעה גם אם

חברת ענן, או עיצוב שרת פתוח שכבר בשימוש, מוותרים על שבב הבקרה הנפרד לטובת פונקציה שמובנית בשבב אחר.

מה בהמשך

אוקטובר 2026 השחרור הרבעוני הראשון מתקופת החסימה (lock-up) של מוכרת AMI: האם THL תמכור את החלק הרבעוני הראשון מתוך כ-5.2 מיליון המניות ברגע שישוחררו; מועדי השחרור נמסרו רק בשיחה.

כל האירועים הצפויים

אוקטובר 2026 השחרור הרבעוני הראשון מתקופת החסימה (lock-up) של מוכרת AMI: האם THL תמכור את החלק הרבעוני הראשון מתוך כ-5.2 מיליון המניות ברגע שישוחררו; מועדי השחרור נמסרו רק בשיחה.
2 בנובמבר 2026 תוצאות הרבעון השלישי של 2026: הכנסות FPGA מול תחזית של בין 210 ל-230 מיליון דולר, שיעור הרווח הגולמי מול 69.5%, שני החודשים הראשונים של AMI מדווחים בנפרד, והאם האמירה ש-2027 כמעט סגורה עומדת במבחן.
פברואר 2027 תוצאות הרבעון הרביעי של 2026 ודוח ה-10-K לשנת הכספים 2026: הרבעון המלא הראשון עם AMI, התחזית ל-2027 מול קצב שנתי של 1.2 מיליארד דולר בסוף השנה, והחוב שנפרע מול היעד של פחות מפעמיים.

מה קרה מאז

נכתבה

19 בספטמבר

המחיר בעת כתיבת התזה

$110.96

18 בספטמבר

5 באוקטוברבדיקת התזההטיעון בעד ההשקעה מופיע עכשיו מתחת לשורה התחתונהאחרי פיילוט בחמש חברות, הבעלים ביקש להוסיף את הטיעון בעד ההשקעה לכל תזה.
4 באוקטוברבדיקת התזהרשימת הבדיקות של הבעלים: מקורות ההכנסה, עלות הצמיחה, ההנהלה, אירועים צפוייםרשימת הבדיקות של הבעלים הראתה שהשיטה שותקת בשאלות מי מנהל את החברה, כמה עולה הצמיחה, מאיפה מגיע הכסף ואילו אירועים צפויים בתאריכים ידועים. בסבב הזה מילאנו את ארבעת הנושאים מתוך דוח הזימון לאסיפה והדוחות.
19 בספטמברהתזה נכתבהניטרלית, ביטחון בינוניצמיחה של 62.2% בדוחות ועסקת קושחה חדשה, במחיר שכבר מגלם את 2027 על בסיס צבר הזמנות שהוצג רק בשיחה.

נבדקה גם 5 פעמים, ללא ממצא חדש שמצריך פעולה.

מקורות 27

Where this came from

Sources - 27

Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.

S01primarycompany filing2026-02-13
Lattice Semiconductor Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 3 January 2026
Item 1: product families, platforms and nodes, foundries and OSATs, the distributor model and the two 30%-plus distributors, the 20-year longevity statement, backlog and the 60-day cancellation term, the competition wording; the risk factors on export controls and Taiwan; the income statement, cash flow (stock-based compensation $115.6M, buybacks $100.0M), and the customer and geography tables.
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S02primarycompany filing2026-08-04
Lattice Semiconductor Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 4 July 2026
The debt note with the 2026 Credit Agreement terms and the $925M draw; the subsequent-events note on the AMI closing; channel and geography tables (95% distributors, 67% Greater China); the receivables concentration; the balance sheet and cash flow; the repurchase note and remaining authorisation; the end-market note; the 'no material changes' risk-factor statement.
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S03primarycompany filing2026-08-04
Lattice Semiconductor Q2 2026 results release, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1
GAAP and non-GAAP tables, the reconciliation (stock-based compensation by line), the Q3 2026 guide including AMI, the AMI financial highlights, the end-market dollar split and the supplemental balance-sheet metrics.
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S04primarytranscript2026-08-04
Lattice Semiconductor Q2 2026 earnings call transcript
Prepared remarks: backlog into 2027, AMI's revenue mix and margins, the hardware pass-through, the financing structure and the below-2-times leverage target. Questions from eight analysts, a separate origin: supply constraints, cost pass-through, the margin step-down, '2027 pretty much booked', the 20 million server figure, the Rule of 105, the $3B 2030 aspiration and segment reporting from Q3.
This is evidenced by accelerated bookings and our backlog extending well into 2027. The latest Digitimes report shows the server TAM is now up to 20 million units forecast for 2026. The visibility is increasing daily. I mean it's really unprecedented. We've got visibility all the way to the end of 2027. 2027 is pretty much booked. As we exit 2026, we expect the business to be operating at a revenue run rate of more than $200 million with gross margins above 75% and EBITDA margins above 40%.
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S05primarycompany filing2026-05-04
Lattice Semiconductor Q1 2026 results release, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1
Q1 2026 results, the Q2 2026 guide of $175M to $195M and $0.42 to $0.46, and the first disclosure of the new end-market groups.
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S06primarycompany filing2026-05-04
Lattice to Acquire AMI, announcement release, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.2
Deal terms: $1.65B, $1.0B cash and about $650M of stock, 5.2 to 6.1 million shares with $57.3M of awards to AMI employees, AMI over $200M of 2026 revenue, THL as seller, Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley committed financing.
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S07primarytranscript2026-05-04
Lattice Semiconductor Q1 2026 earnings call transcript
The serviceable market from $6B to $12B, server at 38% of Q1 revenue, AI at about 25% of 2026 revenue, 16.5 million servers and three FPGAs per server, channel inventory from six months to two, the THL lock-up of 12 months at 25% a quarter, and the analyst's statement that Altera is now a standalone company.
We expect our total serviceable available market to double from about $6 billion currently to about $12 billion jointly with AMI over the next three to four years. From a modeling point of view, we still have a forecast of a 16.5 million server market in 2026. We are roughly saying about three FPGAs per server overall. We gave you today a breakdown of that server business in Q1-about 38% of our revenue. They have a lockup that extends for 12 months from close-25% per quarter.
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S08primarycompany filing2026-02-10
Lattice Semiconductor Q4 and full-year 2025 results release, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1
Fiscal 2025 results, non-GAAP EPS of $1.05, the Q1 2026 guide of $158M to $172M, server revenue up about 85%, new-product revenue up about 70%, and the end-market dollar table including Communications and Computing at $292.7M.
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S09primarycompany filing2026-06-30
Lattice Semiconductor Form 8-K, Item 1.01 - Second Amended and Restated Credit Agreement
The $950M delayed-draw term loan and $200M revolver, SOFR plus 1.00% to 1.75% by leverage ratio, the ticking fee, the 9 November 2026 commitment expiry, and the June 2031 maturities.
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S10primarycompany filing2026-07-27
Lattice Semiconductor Completes Acquisition of AMI, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1
The closing date, AMI as a business unit under its own chief executive reporting to Lattice's, and the silicon-neutrality commitment.
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S11primarycompany filing2026-02-04
Advanced Micro Devices Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 27 December 2025 - Embedded segment and competition AMD
A rival's naming of Lattice among its primary FPGA competitors; the ASIC and ASSP framing; the Spartan, Artix, Kintex and Virtex families; Embedded revenue of $3.5B and operating income of $1.2B.
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S12primaryindustry data2026-09-19
Caliptra 2.0 specification - CHIPS Alliance CHIPS Alliance (AMD, Google, Microsoft, Nvidia)
The customers' own root-of-trust design, its SoC-internal scope and its explicit exclusions.
The objective of Caliptra is to define core RoT capabilities that must be implemented in the System on Chip (SoC) or ASIC of any device in a cloud platform. The silicon iRoT scope includes all datacenter-focused server class SoC / ASIC (datacenter focused) devices (SSD - DC, NIC, CPU, GPU - DC). Contributions to this Specification are made under the terms and conditions set forth in Modified Open Web Foundation Agreement 0.9 (OWFa 0.9) by: AMD, Google, Microsoft, Nvidia. Explicitly out of scope is how silicon integration into backend work is performed
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S13primaryindustry data2026-09-19
Linux Foundation - OpenBMC Project community comes together at The Linux Foundation The Linux Foundation
Who built and supports the open BMC firmware stack that competes with AMI's.
IBM is providing their OpenBMC code base to The Linux Foundation, and this project will be supported by several organizations, including Facebook, Google, Intel, and Microsoft.
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S14primaryindustry data2026-09-19
Open Compute Project - HWMgmt-Module-DCSCM-LTPI reference implementation, README Open Compute Project
The standards body's reference design for the module interface, and the rival device it targets; the January 2026 revision date.
This repository contains: Verilog Source Code of standalone LTPI IP (SCM + HPM); Intel Quartus Example Project File for Intel MAX 10 CPLD; Complete set of LTPI Unit Tests Implementation Package. LTPI IP that is compliant with the DC-SCM 2.x LTPI Specification. | 1.20 | 13 January, 2026 | Fix corner case bug in data channel managment for target and controller device | Implementation compliant with 1.2 LTPI Specification.
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S15primarycompany release2023-10-10
Axiado - Axiado Elevates Data Center Security with OCP-Based DC-SCM 2.0 Modules Axiado Corporation
A competitor's own description of a single-chip module that removes the discrete programmable-logic device.
SAN JOSE, Calif., October 10, 2023 - 2023 OCP Global Summit - Axiado Corporation, an AI-enhanced hardware cybersecurity company, today announced the release of its SCM3000 family of modules compliant to the Open Compute Project's (OCP) data center secure control module (DC-SCM) Rev2.0 Ver 1.0 base specification. The DC-SCM Rev2.0 modules integrate Axiado's innovative TCU with AI/ML capabilities, which includes critical functions such as baseboard management controller (BMC), platform root of trust (PRoT), trusted platform module (TPM) and complex programmable logic device (CPLD), creating in effect a single-chip-based DC-SCM solution.
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S16primarycompany release2026-09-16
Lattice Expands Secure Control FPGA Leadership with New Lattice Mach-N2 Family - company newsroom
The response product: density, SERDES, the algorithm list, configuration time and availability.
HILLSBORO, Ore. - Sep. 16, 2026 - Lattice Semiconductor (NASDAQ: LSCC), the low power programmable and platform firmware leader, today announced Lattice Mach-N2 FPGA family. Built on the Lattice Nexus 2 small FPGA platform, Mach-N2 combines integrated flash, a hardware Root of Trust, and CNSA 2.0-compliant post-quantum cryptography (PQC) with crypto agility for trusted, always-on system control and security across next-generation systems. The new Lattice Mach-N2 devices are available for order today and samples have already shipped to industry-leading Compute and Communications customers. Up to 2X greater logic density for advanced system control functions. CNSA 2.0-compliant PQC: ML-DSA, LMS, and XMSS for authentication; ML-KEM for key exchange. Fastest-in-class instant-on configuration: a 220k system logic cell device fully configures in under 30 milliseconds. High-speed connectivity PCIe 4.0 and 10G Ethernet. Up to 16 Gbps SERDES.
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S17primarycompany filing2026-07-30
Meta Platforms Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 - capital expenditures META
A hyperscaler's filed capital spending: $31.08B in the quarter and $130B to $145B anticipated for 2026.
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S18primaryindustry data2026-07-28
IDC - Servers Market Insights (Worldwide Quarterly Server Tracker summary page) International Data Corporation
The measured rate and the forecast: 2025 $453,531M, 2026 $646,998M, 2027 $930,562M in the page's table. A commercial tracker with a stated method, not a statistical agency; its Q2 2026 press release returns 403.
The worldwide server market delivered 30.7% spending growth in the first quarter of 2026 while unit growth was modest at 3.3% year over year. Leading vendors confirm order pipelines are strong and that supply, not demand, represents the primary ceiling for growth in the current environment. Thus, the market is expected to continue in a very positive trajectory of 25.1% compound average growth through 2030. Total: 2025 $453,531 78.2%; 2026 $646,998 42.7%; 2027 $930,562 43.8% (Value US$M, Annual Growth %). Updated: July 28, 2026.
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S19primarygovernment data2024-08-13
NIST - FIPS 203, Module-Lattice-Based Key-Encapsulation Mechanism Standard National Institute of Standards and Technology
The post-quantum standard the security parts implement, from the body that wrote it.
This standard specifies a key-encapsulation mechanism called ML-KEM. The security of ML-KEM is related to the computational difficulty of the Module Learning with Errors problem. At present, ML-KEM is believed to be secure, even against adversaries who possess a quantum computer.
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S20secondaryvendor data2026-09-19
Research pack, frozen at content/LSCC/research-pack.json
Price, returns and the 252-session decomposition; the trailing multiples; the analyst snapshot, dated series and estimates; FINRA short interest; the insider window and base rate; the earnings history with filed GAAP EPS beside the adjusted figure; headcount from the 10-K; the filed-against-vendor cross-check.
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S21primarycompany filing2026-09-19
Lattice Semiconductor Forms 4, September 2025 to September 2026, read for the Rule 10b5-1 checkbox
Which open-market sales were under plans and which were discretionary; the chief executive's four November 2025 purchases; the three director sales.
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S22primarycompany filing2026-05-21
Microchip Technology Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 31 March 2026 MCHP
The FPGA product description inside an embedded-control portfolio, and the absence of any named FPGA competitor.
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S23tertiarynews2026-08-05
Investing.com - Earnings call transcript: Lattice Semiconductor tops Q2 2026, shares swing lower; Yahoo Finance/StockStory - Why Lattice Semiconductor shares are plunging today (November 2025)
The objection coverage stated after each of the two falls: the margin guide, supply constraints and cost pass-through in August 2026; profit-taking after a run-up in November 2025. Also the two broker target increases. Used only for what people said, never for a figure.
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S24secondaryvendor data2026-09-18
FMP end-of-day price history, LSCC, September 2025 to September 2026
The closes around each print and the deal closing, the June high and the November low; observed trades, split-adjusted by the vendor.
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S25primarycompany filing2026-07-27
Lattice Semiconductor 2025 Inducement Equity Incentive Plan, as amended 27 July 2026, Form 8-K Exhibit 10.1
The plan amended at closing to cover inducement grants to AMI employees; read to confirm it is not the credit agreement, which is not filed as an exhibit to that 8-K. No figure taken from it.
read, but no claim rests on it
S26primarycompany filing2026-03-18
Lattice Semiconductor proxy statement (DEF 14A), filed 18 March 2026, for the 1 May 2026 meeting
beneficial ownership at the 2 March 2026 record date, the executive officers and their start dates and records, the CD&A: the 2025 Corporate Incentive Plan's weights and payout, the TSR and revenue-growth PRSU design
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S27primarycompany filing2024-02-16
Lattice Semiconductor Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 30 December 2023
the FY2021 to FY2023 income statement lines as a share of revenue (R&D, selling, general and administrative), read through the frozen numbers card (content/LSCC/financials.json)
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