Hexcel
Hexcel מייצרת את סיבי הפחמן, ואת היריעות הספוגות בשרף שנארגות מהם, ש-Airbus ו-Boeing משתמשות בהם כדי לבנות מטוסים קלים יותר.
הציון שלנולא אטרקטיבית ביטחון בינוני
הציונים
ציונים · 1-4
צמיחה3/4 ↑
המכירות עלו ב-8.9% במחצית הראשונה של 2026, אבל Hexcel אינה מנצחת את השוק שלה; היא נעה יחד איתו, ובשנת 2025 המכירות ירדו ב-0.5%.
איכות העסק3/4 →
הצורך באישור מחדש אכן נועל תוכניות שכבר בייצור, אבל Boeing מעריכה אותו בשנה, וכל תוכנית חדשה פתוחה לתחרות.
איתנות פיננסית3/4 ↑
החוב ממשי אבל מכוסה מהפעילות השוטפת, ושום חלק ממנו לא נפרע לפני 2031. עם זאת, המינוף מעל התקרה שהחברה קבעה לעצמה, ולכן הרכישות החוזרות נעצרו.
יכולת ביצוע3/4 ↑
התחזית הועלתה פעמיים ושישה מתוך שמונה רבעונים הסתיימו מעל התחזיות, אבל ההכנסות והרווח המתואם של 2025 ירדו, ויעד ה-18% ממשיך להידחות.
ערך לבעלי המניות3/4 →
מספר המניות אכן יורד, אבל הרכישה החוזרת מומנה בחוב, והריבית עליו עלתה עד כה יותר, בחישוב למניה, ממה שהרכישה חסכה.
פוטנציאל2/4 ↑
שישה דברים בלתי תלויים צריכים להתממש, וארבעה מהם הם לוחות הזמנים של חברות אחרות. שום תוספת לא חתומה בחוזה, ותחום הביטחון דורך במקום כיום.
רמת סיכון3/4 →
Airbus ו-Boeing הן 52% מהמכירות, והתאוששות אחת מניעה הכול. הסיכון מדווח ואפשר לעמוד בו, אבל כל החוזים עם Airbus פוקעים יחד ב-2030.
תמחור2/4 ↑
המחיר כבר מגלם את העלייה המלאה בקצב הייצור ואת שיעור הרווח של 18% לפני ששניהם מגיעים, ולכן ארבע שנים ללא תקלה יניבו תשואה רגילה.
חוזק הראיות3/4 →
הנתונים תואמים לדוחות, והיתרון התחרותי וגודל ההזדמנות נתמכים במקורות של Boeing, Airbus ו-NASA. אבל התרחיש הסופי נשען רק על דברים שנאמרו בשיחת ההנהלה.
השורה התחתונה
הציון שלנו: לא אטרקטיבית. Hexcel מייצרת את חומרי סיבי הפחמן ש-Airbus ו-Boeing בונות מהם מטוסים קלים יותר, ועם חזרת קצב הייצור של המטוסים הרווח שלה סוף סוף עולה, ולכן העסק טוב. ההתאוששות אמיתית, אבל המחיר כבר מגלם אותה: גם לפי יעדי ההנהלה עצמה לסוף העשור, המניה נראית יקרה גם אם הכול מתנהל כשורה, ולכן המחיר מלא ולא זול. ההערכה תלויה בשיעורי הרווח: אם כל דולר מכירות נוסף משאיר יותר רווח ממה שההנהלה צופה, היעדים יגיעו מוקדם וגבוה יותר. עד שזה יתברר לאורך שנה שלמה, המחיר מקדים את ההתאוששות.
הטיעון לטווח הארוךAirbus ו-Boeing בונות יותר מטוסים, וכל מטוס משתמש ביותר סיבי פחמן. כדי שזה ישתלם, ההתאוששות של Hexcel צריכה לעלות על מה שהמחיר כבר מניח.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 7 טענות
C46עובדהhigh confidence
Hexcel states in its 10-K that it has products on all Airbus and Boeing planes, so its growth on existing programmes cannot come from taking share.
C25עובדהhigh confidence
Q2 2026 sales were $529.3M, up 8.0% on Q2 2025, and gross margin rose to 26.1% from 22.8%. Commercial Aerospace sales rose 18.3% to $346.6M while Defense, Space & Other fell 7.2% to $182.7M.
C41אומדןhigh confidence
At $89.82 Hexcel costs about $38 for each $1 of the midpoint of its own guided 2026 adjusted earnings, an enterprise value of $7.69B against $390M of trailing adjusted cash profit, and a free cash flow yield of about 2.9%.
derivedClose of $89.82 against the midpoint of guided 2026 adjusted diluted earnings per share of $2.35 (C28) is 38.2. Market capitalisation of $6.79B plus net debt of $897.2M (C34) is an enterprise value of $7.69B; against trailing adjusted EBITDA of $390M (C27) that is 19.7, and the guided free cash flow of more than $195M is 2.9% of market capitalisation. Pack figures from S15.
against this
- The trailing figures are struck on a trough. Adjusted operating margin was 9.1% in 2025 against 18% in 2019, so a trailing multiple on a cyclical industrial at the bottom of its margin cycle is the wrong instrument by construction - which is why the frame here is forward.
- The shares are 19.6% below their 52-week high, so the price already reflects some of the doubt: the multiple is lower than it was in July when guidance was raised.
- The company's own median price-to-earnings ratio over prior fiscal years is higher than today's, so on its own history the shares are not expensive.
C42אומדןmedium confidence
At $89.82 the price already pays about $18 for each $1 the company's own end-of-decade target would earn, so the entire ramp - the $500M, the $200M and the 18% margin - is in the price before it happens.
derivedAdds management's $500M of commercial and $200M of defence and space incremental sales (C31) to FY2025 sales of $1,893.9M (C23), giving about $2.59B, and to the 2026 guidance midpoint of $2.075B (C28), giving about $2.78B. At the stated 18% adjusted operating margin that is $467M to $500M of operating profit; deducting $25M to $40M of interest (C34, C38) and taxing at 20% gives $342M to $380M; over 72M to 76.5M shares (C36) that is $4.46 to $5.27 a share. Against $89.82 the range is 17.0 to 20.1 times, about 18 at the middle.
against this
- If the ramp lands and the shares then trade on a normal industrial multiple of 25 times, the price is roughly $120 against $89.82 today - about 34% over four years, plus a dividend near 0.8% a year. That is a real return, just not a large one for the risk.
- Management says that once peak rates are reached in 2028 and 2029 Hexcel is likely to stay there for a long time because the backlog is close to ten years of production, so the terminal earnings deserve a higher multiple than a cyclical trough figure would.
- The calculation assumes no buyback beyond the 72M share floor and no repricing of the Airbus agreements, which management expects to renegotiate upward when they expire at the end of 2030 - both are upside the arithmetic excludes.
C43עובדהmedium confidence
The analyst panel covering Hexcel is split 17 buy, 18 hold and 1 sell, and the shares fell 2.6% in the session after July's raised guidance; they are down 12.2% over 20 sessions against a gain of 42.9% over 252.
C30טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Management says the incremental operating margin on extra sales was 49% in Q2 2026 and about 37% for 2026 at the guidance midpoint, and that the mid-30s is the run rate to expect from here; in Q3 adjusted operating income rose $9.6M on $40.2M more sales, about 24%, as management cited summer seasonality and hiring costs.
sourceHexcel Q2 2026 earnings call, held 30 July 2026primaryHexcel Q3 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)primary
against this
- Management itself guides the run rate down to the mid-30s from the 49% just delivered, and the second-half guidance implies a step down further than that.
- Q2 2026's incremental margin was helped by the absence of the $24.2M Belgian restructuring charge in the base quarter and by the divestiture of lower-margin industrial businesses, neither of which recurs.
- Management says the industry requires running fast to stand still on cost, so the incremental margin is struck before cost inflation it must offset every year.
- 2026-10-21editedQ3 incremental margin of about 24% computed from the release: below the mid-30s run rate management guided.
- 2026-10-22editedthird-quarter call read: management restated the mid-30s run rate for 2026
C31טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Management says that when Airbus and Boeing reach their publicly stated peak build rates Hexcel will earn about $500M of additional annual sales from its existing contracts, that defence and space will add about $200M more, and that this takes adjusted operating margin to 18% before the end of the decade.
sourceHexcel Q2 2026 earnings call, held 30 July 2026primaryHexcel FY2025 results release, Exhibit 99.1 to the 8-K of 28…primary
against this
- Every dollar of it depends on two other companies' production schedules. Airbus built 57 A350s in 2025 against the 144 a year its own rate-12 target implies, and Airbus says a third party's engine deliveries are constraining the ramp.
- The defence and space half is not growing today. Hexcel's Defense, Space & Other sales fell 5.8% in the first half of 2026, and management says Defence and Space alone, excluding the divested industrial businesses, was unchanged year over year in Q2 2026.
- Nothing is contracted for it. The agreements are existing long-term supply agreements whose volume follows the airframers' build rates, and neither the Boeing framework announced in July 2026 nor any Airbus agreement discloses a volume.
החברה
Hexcel מייצרת סיבי פחמן מחומר הגלם הכימי ועד המוצר, והופכת אותם ליריעות ספוגות בשרף, לאריג, לליבות חלת דבש, לדבקים ולחלקים מוגמרים. יצרניות המטוסים משתמשות בהם במקום אלומיניום וטיטניום: אותה קשיחות במשקל נמוך יותר ובהרבה פחות חלקים, אבל במחיר גבוה יותר לקילוגרם.
כל דור של מטוסים משתמש ביותר. חומרים מרוכבים הם כ-6% ממשקלו של Boeing 767 ו-53% ממשקלו של Airbus A350.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 2 טענות
C01עובדהhigh confidence
Hexcel makes its own polyacrylonitrile precursor, spins and carbonises it into aerospace-grade carbon fibre, and converts that fibre into resin-impregnated sheet, woven reinforcement, honeycomb core, structural adhesives and finished aircraft parts.
C03עובדהhigh confidence
Composite content by weight has risen with each aircraft generation: about 6% on the Boeing 767, about 11% on the 777, about 23% on the Airbus A380, more than 30% on the 777X, more than 50% on the 787 and 53% on the A350.
ממה היא מרוויחה
התשלום הוא לפי מטוס שנבנה. Airbus, Boeing והספקים שלהן היו 52% מהמכירות ב-2025, והחומר נמסר ארבעה עד שישה חודשים לפני כל מטוס, ולכן המכירות עוקבות אחרי קצב הייצור. אין הכנסות מתחזוקה: החומר מחזיק כל חיי המטוס. רוב השאר הוא עבודה צבאית, ובראשה ה-F-35.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 4 טענות
C16עובדהhigh confidence
Airbus and its subcontractors were 39% of Hexcel's 2025 net sales and Boeing and its subcontractors 13% - 52% between them - and within the Commercial Aerospace market about 77% of 2025 sales went to those two and their subcontractors.
C18עובדהhigh confidence
Hexcel delivers its products into the supply chain about four to six months before aircraft delivery on established programmes, with a range of one to eighteen months, so its sales track build rates rather than reported deliveries.
C17הסקהmedium confidence
Hexcel has no material aftermarket. Composite primary structure is built for the life of the airframe, so unlike an engine or component maker Hexcel earns nothing from the installed fleet and its revenue is new-build only.
derivedHexcel's 10-K describes Commercial Aerospace demand entirely as a function of Airbus and Boeing build rates and says it ships four to six months ahead of aircraft delivery; neither the 10-K, the FY2025 release, the Q2 2026 release nor Exhibit 99.2's sales tables report any spares, repair, aftermarket or installed-fleet revenue line. The company reports two segments and two markets and no third revenue stream.
against this
- The 10-K names further penetration of composites in rotorcraft blades including both new and replacement blades as a growth trend, so some replacement demand exists - it is not sized and does not appear as a reported line.
- Engineered Products makes finished parts and structural assemblies which in principle can be spared, and the segment's revenue is not broken down between original equipment and replacement.
C45עובדהhigh confidence
Defense, Space & Other was 39% of Hexcel's 2025 sales, about 88% of it military programmes, with the F-35 the largest at under 25% of that market's revenue and no other programme above 10%; the market's sales fell 5.8% in the first half of 2026 and Defence and Space alone, excluding the divested industrial businesses, was unchanged year over year in Q2 2026.
sourceHexcel 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025primaryHexcel Q2 2026 results release, Exhibit 99.1 to the 8-K of…primaryHexcel Q2 2026 earnings call, held 30 July 2026primary
- 2026-10-22editedthird-quarter call read: reasons for the fall and the fourth-quarter expectation recorded in C60
פירוט מקורות ההכנסה
| מקור | משקל במכירות (שנת הכספים 2025) | איך |
|---|---|---|
| תעופה מסחרית: Airbus, Boeing וקבלני משנה | כ-47% | סיבי פחמן, יריעות ספוגות בשרף, ליבות חלת דבש ומבנים למטוסי נוסעים גדולים, בתשלום לכל מטוס שנבנה במסגרת הסכמים ארוכי טווח. |
| תעופה מסחרית: מטוסים עסקיים, מטוסים אזוריים ואחרים | כ-14% | אותם חומרים למטוסים עסקיים, למטוסים אזוריים ולשימושים מסחריים אחרים. |
| ביטחון, חלל ואחרים | 39.4% | חומרים למטוסים ולמסוקים צבאיים, ובראשם ה-F-35, למבני שיגור לחלל ולשימושים תעשייתיים שנותרו. |
ההנהלה
טום ג'נטיל, שניהל בעבר את Spirit AeroSystems, התמנה למנכ״ל במאי 2024 וליו״ר הדירקטוריון בדצמבר אותה שנה. ג'יימס קוגן נכנס לניהול הכספים במאי 2026, אחרי חודשים שבהם מילא את התפקיד ממלא מקום. בעלי העניין מחזיקים בפחות מ-2% מהחברה, והאחזקה הגדולה ביותר היא של מי שניהל אותה בעבר. הבונוס השנתי נקבע לפי המזומנים שנוצרו והרווח התפעולי, ומעט גם לפי חוזים חדשים; המניות שמוענקות נקבעות לפי התשואה על ההון וצמיחת הרווח לעומת חברות בגודל דומה. בתוכנית התגמול האחרונה לשלוש שנים לא שולם דבר על רכיב התשואה על ההון.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 3 טענות
C52עובדהhigh confidence
Thomas Gentile became Hexcel's chief executive and president in May 2024 and chairman in December 2024, after running Spirit AeroSystems from 2016 to 2023 and GE units before that; James Coogan became chief financial officer on 1 May 2026 from Axcelis, where he was CFO from 2023, after CFO at Kaman, following Patrick Winterlich's resignation in November 2025 and an interim CFO.
C50עובדהhigh confidence
At 17 March 2026 Hexcel's 15 directors and executive officers as a group beneficially owned 1,405,138 shares, 1.84%, of which 827,221 were options and units; the largest insider was former chief executive Nick Stanage at 983,392 shares, 1.30%, and chief executive Thomas Gentile held 74,871. BlackRock at 11.8% was the largest holder; there is one share class.
C51עובדהhigh confidence
Hexcel's 2025 annual bonus paid on free cash flow (50%) and adjusted EBIT (50%), plus a modifier of up to 10% for new contract wins; both financial measures missed target and the total paid 76.3%. Its three-year performance shares pay on average return on invested capital (50%) and GAAP earnings-per-share growth against the S&P MidCap 400 (50%); the 2023-2025 cycle paid 43.3%, nothing on ROIC, which was 8.4% against a 9.8% threshold.
against this
The contract-wins modifier lifted a bonus whose free cash flow and adjusted EBIT both missed target, and the ROIC targets for the 2025-2027 cycle are withheld as confidential.
היתרון התחרותי, ומי מאיים עליו
למה הלקוחות נשארים
מטוס מאושר לשימוש בחומר של ספק אחד, שמיוצר בסדרה אחת של קווי ייצור. מעבר לספק אחר פירושו לבצע מחדש את בדיקות האישור ולהוכיח שוב שהמבנה עומד בדרישות, ואת העלות משלמת יצרנית המטוסים, לא Hexcel. הדוח השנתי של Boeing עצמה אומר שאישור של מקור נוסף לחומרים מרוכבים עשוי לקחת שנה או יותר.
הנעילה נחלשת בשוליים. מאגר משותף שנתמך בידי הממשלה מאפשר היום לספקים חדשים להוכיח שהחומר שלהם זהה, וכך עלות האישור יורדת לעשירית.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 3 טענות
C05עובדהhigh confidence
Hexcel's 10-K says the sources of carbon fibre it can use in any product or application are generally dictated by customer qualifications or certifications, not by its own choice of supplier.
C04עובדהhigh confidence
Boeing's own 10-K says that although alternative sources generally exist for composites, qualification of those sources could take a year or more.
C06עובדהmedium confidence
NCAMP, run with the Federal Aviation Administration at Wichita State University, publishes a shared composite materials database so manufacturers can prove equivalency rather than run a full qualification; its predecessor programme cut certification time by a factor of four and certification cost by a factor of ten, and both the FAA and EASA accept design values developed this way.
האיום
ייתכן שהמטוס הבא צר-הגוף לא ייבנה כמו האיירבוס A350. Toray מוכרת למינטים על בסיס פלסטיק שנלחצים בתוך דקות ומולחמים זה לזה, ובכך מדלגים על ההקשיה האיטית ועל הדבקים ש-Hexcel מוכרת. NASA מנהלת פרויקט לבניית מטוסים מחומרים מרוכבים מהר יותר, ובקצב של 75 מטוסים בחודש מהירות, ולא משקל, היא שתכריע איזה חומר ייבחר.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 2 טענות
C08עובדהmedium confidence
Toray Advanced Composites sells Cetex thermoplastic laminates it says can be press formed in minutes, and markets welding them as an ideal alternative to time-consuming and potentially weaker adhesive bonding - the joining step Hexcel sells structural adhesives for.
C09עובדהmedium confidence
NASA runs a Hi-Rate Composite Aircraft Manufacturing project which it says addresses an industry need for more rapid production of composite aircraft, partnering with industry to raise the rate of composite aircraft manufacturing and reduce its cost.
המתחרות: כולן פרטיות, פיתוח פנימי של לקוחות או נסחרות בחו״ל.
פירוט המתחרים
| סימול | מתחרה | שלב | בסיס להשוואה |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toray Advanced Composites - סרטי Cetex תרמופלסטיים ולמינטים תרמופלסטיים מחוזקיםבסיס להשוואה: נסחרת בחו״ל | כבר נמכר | נסחרת בחו״ל | |
| לא נסחרת בבורסה | הפרויקט Hi-Rate Composite Aircraft Manufacturing של NASA ויצרניות המטוסים שפועלות במסגרתובסיס להשוואה: לא נסחרות בבורסה | במחקר | לא נסחרת בבורסה |
| לא נסחרת בבורסה | מבנה ראשי מסגסוגת אלומיניום-ליתיום - גוף המטוס של Boeing 737 MAX ושל Airbus A320neoבסיס להשוואה: לא נסחרות בבורסה | כבר נמכר | לא נסחרת בבורסה |
פוטנציאל הצמיחה
גודל ההזדמנות
Hexcel כבר נמצאת בכל מטוס של Airbus ושל Boeing, ולכן היא צומחת רק ככל שהן בונות יותר. קצב השיא המוצהר שלהן בחמש התוכניות עתירות החומרים המרוכבים מסתכם בכ-155 מטוסים בחודש. ב-2025 Airbus בנתה 757 מטוסים בשלוש מהן.
הביקוש אינו המגבלה. לשתי החברות היו 15,474 מטוסים בהזמנה בסוף 2025, עלייה של 3.8%.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 5 טענות
C46עובדהhigh confidence
Hexcel states in its 10-K that it has products on all Airbus and Boeing planes, so its growth on existing programmes cannot come from taking share.
C11טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Airbus says it expects to reach a rate of between 70 and 75 A320 Family aircraft a month by the end of 2027 stabilising at 75 thereafter, continues to target rate 12 for the A350 in 2028 and rate 13 for the A220 in 2028, and targets around 870 commercial deliveries in 2026.
against this
- Airbus delivered 57 A350s in 2025, which is 40% of the 144 a year that rate 12 implies, so the 2028 target requires output to more than double in three years.
- Airbus itself says Pratt & Whitney's failure to commit to the number of engines Airbus ordered is negatively impacting 2026 guidance and the ramp-up trajectory - the binding constraint on the largest programme is a third party's.
- Airbus has missed its own delivery target in several recent years, and cut the 2025 target in December 2025 before reporting 793.
C12bטענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Boeing plans to raise the 737 rate from 42 to 47 a month during 2026 with the FAA's concurrence, is planning further increases beyond 47 and a new production line, and began increasing the 787 rate to eight a month in the fourth quarter of 2025.
against this
- Boeing's own risk factors say planned rate increases may be delayed or not occur at all if its production health indicators do not support them or it cannot obtain FAA concurrence - the company states the condition itself.
- The 737 rate was below 38 a month as recently as the start of 2025, so 47 is a 24% increase over a line that has been disrupted twice in three years.
- The 787 has been held below ten a month since 2021 by supply chain and quality problems Boeing has not yet closed out.
C13עובדהhigh confidence
Airbus delivered 793 commercial aircraft in 2025 - 607 A320 Family, 93 A220, 57 A350 and 36 A330 - and ended the year with a backlog of 8,754 aircraft.
C15עובדהhigh confidence
Airbus and Boeing's combined order backlog was 15,474 aircraft at 31 December 2025, a 3.8% increase on a year earlier and close to record levels.
מי כבר התחייב
ההסכמים עם Airbus, כ-40% מהפעילות, תקפים עד סוף 2030, ול-Airbus יש הזמנות מחייבות לחומר ל-80 ערכות A350 לפחות עד 2026. ההסכמים החדשים עם Boeing מיולי 2026 אינם חושפים כמות, תקופה או שווי.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 3 טענות
C19טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Management says Hexcel's long-term agreements typically run five to seven years with 15% to 20% coming due each year, that it is winning price increases when they are renegotiated, and that the Airbus agreements - about 40% of the business - run to the end of 2030.
against this
- Hexcel's own 10-K risk factors say customers push for cost reduction or improvements in contract terms throughout the supply chain, and that Hexcel may be required to accept increased risk or face margin compression on some products.
- A single expiry covering about 40% of sales is a concentration in itself: the whole Airbus book is renegotiated at one moment rather than 15% to 20% a year, and it falls just outside this thesis's horizon.
- The claim exists only on the earnings call. No filing states the term, the expiry or the share of sales covered.
C20טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Management says it has firm purchase orders from Airbus through the end of 2026 confirming at least 80 A350 shipsets, and on the 22 October call said 60 to 65 are already pulled, the rest needed at seven a month in the fourth quarter, against Airbus's confirmed production of seven to eight A350s a month.
sourceHexcel Q2 2026 earnings call, held 30 July 2026primaryThird quarter 2026 earnings call transcript, held 22 October…primary
against this
- Airbus delivered 57 A350s in 2025, so 80 shipsets is Hexcel shipping well ahead of last year's assembly rate - consistent with its four-to-six-month lead time, and equally consistent with the supply chain restocking rather than the aircraft being built.
- No filing carries the order figure. It is management's characterisation of its own order book on a call, and Hexcel's own 10-K says its order backlog is not a meaningful trend indicator.
- Hexcel's sales guidance for 2026 was raised partly on this A350 upside, so the same claim supports both the order book and the guidance.
- 2026-10-22editedthird-quarter call confirmed the 80 shipsets, said 60 to 65 are pulled and gave the 2027 outlook in C56; the rate wording moved to seven a month
C21עובדהhigh confidence
Hexcel announced new and extended long-term agreements with Boeing in July 2026 across commercial, defence and space programmes - a broad enterprise-level composite material supply framework plus an extension covering acoustic engineered core for engines - disclosing neither a volume, a term nor a value.
מאיפה מגיעה הצמיחה, לפי פעילות
מאיפה מגיעה הצמיחה
| פעילות | משקל בהכנסות | צמיחה ברבעון האחרון | בחצי השנה האחרונה | בשנה האחרונה |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| תעופה מסחרית | 67% | +20.5% | +19.3% | +12.3% |
| שאר הפעילויות | 33% | -8.7% | -7.9% | -2.3% |
| החברה כולה | 100% | +8.8% | +8.4% | +6.7% |
הפירוט המדווח עד 30 בספטמבר 2026. השיעורים האלה לא מועברים קדימה; הסיבה בקריאה שלמטה.
איך לקרוא את זה: הצמיחה המשוקללת של החברה. 18.3% בתעופה המסחרית משקפים את Airbus ו-Boeing שמשקמות את קצב הייצור, כש-Airbus ב-63% מהיעדים שלה; הירידה של 7.2% בשאר הפעילויות נובעת ממכירת הפעילות התעשייתית באוסטריה. זו התאוששות לעבר תקרה, לא שינוי בתמהיל.
התוצאות
המספרים
היא צומחת?לאט
המכירות צמחו ב-7.6% ב-12 החודשים עד ספטמבר 2026, מהר יותר מהירידה של 0.5% בשנה שהסתיימה בדצמבר 2025.
היא רווחית?כן
שיעור הרווח התפעולי עומד על 12%, בערך כפי שהיה בשנה שהסתיימה בדצמבר 2023 (12%).
הצמיחה משתלמת?משתלמת
ההוצאות התפעוליות אוכלות 13 סנט מכל דולר מכירות, לעומת 15 סנט בשנה שהסתיימה בדצמבר 2021.
עד כמה היא יציבה?לא אחידה
צמיחת המכירות השנתית נעה בין −12% ל-+19% בחמש השנים האחרונות, ובשנתיים מהן המכירות ירדו.
היא מייצרת מזומנים?כן
היא הפכה 10% מהמכירות למזומן חופשי: 210 מיליון דולר ב-12 החודשים האחרונים.
המאזן איתן?חוב כבד
החוב שלה גבוה ב-857 מיליון דולר מהמזומן שבידיה, כ-2.9 שנות תזרים מפעילות שוטפת.
בעלי המניות מדוללים?לא, מספר המניות יורד
מספר המניות ירד ב-9.3% ב-4.8 שנים, ותגמול במניות עולה לה 1.0% מהמכירות.
כל המספרים
נתונים מדוחות ה-10-K וה-10-Q של החברה, נכון ל-21 באוקטובר 2026. שנת הכספים של החברה מסתיימת בדצמבר.
| דצמבר 2021 | דצמבר 2022 | דצמבר 2023 | דצמבר 2024 | דצמבר 2025 | 12 חודשים עד ספטמבר 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| גודל וצמיחה | ||||||
| מכירות | $1.32B | $1.58B | $1.79B | $1.90B | $1.89B | $2.02B |
| צמיחת המכירות | −12% | +19% | +13% | +6.4% | −0.5% | +7.6% |
| רווח | ||||||
| שיעור הרווח הגולמי | 19% | 23% | 24% | 25% | 23% | 25% |
| שיעור הרווח התפעולי | 3.9% | 11% | 12% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 12% |
| שיעור הרווח הנקי | - | - | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.8% | - |
| עלות הצמיחה, לכל דולר מכירות | ||||||
| מחקר ופיתוח | 3.4% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.2% |
| הוצאות מכירה, הנהלה וכלליות | 10% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 9.1% |
| תגמול מבוסס מניות | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.0% |
| השקעות הוניות | 2.1% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 4.3% |
| מזומנים | ||||||
| תזרים מפעילות שוטפת | $152M | $173M | $257M | $290M | $230M | $297M |
| תזרים מזומנים חופשי | $124M | $96.8M | $149M | $203M | $157M | $210M |
| מאזן | ||||||
| מזומנים והשקעות לזמן קצר | $128M | $112M | $227M | $125M | $71.0M | $77.8M |
| חוב | $823M | $724M | $700M | $701M | $993M | $935M |
| מזומן נטו | −$696M | −$612M | −$472M | −$575M | −$922M | −$857M |
| תשואות ומניות | ||||||
| תשואה על ההון המושקע | 1.6% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | - |
| מספר המניות (בדילול מלא) | 84.6M | 85.0M | 85.5M | 83.0M | 80.0M | 76.7M |
עלות הצמיחה
הצמיחה משפרת את הרווחיות של Hexcel, אבל לא כי הוצאות המשרד או המחקר מצטמצמות: הן עולות פחות או יותר בקצב המכירות. הרווח נובע מהמפעלים, שעלותם כמעט זהה כשהם מלאים וכשהם חצי ריקים, ולכן חזרת הנפח משפרת את שיעור הרווח. שנתיים שטוחות לאחרונה הראו איך זה פועל גם בכיוון ההפוך.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 2 טענות
C55עובדהhigh confidence
Per sales dollar, research and technology cost 3.4 cents in 2021 and 3.2 in the four quarters to June 2026, selling and admin 10.2 and 9.1, stock pay 1.4 and 0.8; cost of sales fell from 81.1 cents to 75.0, and operating margin rose from 3.9% to 12.0% in 2023, fell to 9.1% in 2025 after $50.0M and $37.8M of other operating expense in 2024 and 2025, and was 11.5% over the four quarters. The research line is the filer's ResearchAndDevelopmentExpense tag, the same figure.
sourceHexcel 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2022primaryHexcel 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025primaryHexcel 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026primary
against this
Flat sales in 2024 and 2025 took operating margin down from 12.0% to 9.1%, partly on restructuring, so the leverage runs both ways.
C30טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Management says the incremental operating margin on extra sales was 49% in Q2 2026 and about 37% for 2026 at the guidance midpoint, and that the mid-30s is the run rate to expect from here; in Q3 adjusted operating income rose $9.6M on $40.2M more sales, about 24%, as management cited summer seasonality and hiring costs.
sourceHexcel Q2 2026 earnings call, held 30 July 2026primaryHexcel Q3 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)primary
against this
- Management itself guides the run rate down to the mid-30s from the 49% just delivered, and the second-half guidance implies a step down further than that.
- Q2 2026's incremental margin was helped by the absence of the $24.2M Belgian restructuring charge in the base quarter and by the divestiture of lower-margin industrial businesses, neither of which recurs.
- Management says the industry requires running fast to stand still on cost, so the incremental margin is struck before cost inflation it must offset every year.
- 2026-10-21editedQ3 incremental margin of about 24% computed from the release: below the mid-30s run rate management guided.
- 2026-10-22editedthird-quarter call read: management restated the mid-30s run rate for 2026
הדוח האחרון (29 ביולי)
הרבעון שהסתיים ביוני 2026, לפי הדוחות.
8%
צמיחת המכירות
לעומת הרבעון המקביל אשתקד
5.5%
צמיחה לעומת הרבעון הקודם
לעומת 2.1% ברבעון שלפני כן
14¢
רווח תפעולי
לכל דולר מכירות
הרבעון שהסתיים בספטמבר 2026 הראה שההתאוששות אמיתית אבל לא אחידה. המכירות עלו ב-8.8% ל-496 מיליון דולר, מכירות המטוסים האזרחיים עלו ב-21%, ואילו הביטחון והחלל ירדו ב-9%. שיעור הרווח ירד ל-11.0%, ומכל דולר מכירות נוסף נשארו לה כ-24 סנט, לעומת 49 סנט ברבעון הקודם. התחזית השנתית לא השתנתה, והיקף הרכישה החוזרת של מניות הוגדל ל-750 מיליון דולר.
בשיחה עם האנליסטים ההנהלה תלתה את הירידה בנחשלות של הקיץ ובגיוס מוקדם של עובדים (525 במקום 400 שתוכננו), אמרה שמתוכננים כ-100 סטים למטוסי A350 ב-2027, 25% יותר מהשנה, ודיברה על שיעור רווח שיתקרב ל-20% עם הזמן.
מה זה אומר על התזההשיחה מחזקת את מסלול המכירות, בעיקר סביב ה-A350, אבל שיעור הרווח נשאר מתחת לרף שקבענו, והדיבור על שיעור רווח גבוה יותר הוא שאיפה בלבד. המחיר כבר מגלם את כל ההתאוששות, ולכן הציון נשאר לא אטרקטיבית.
הרבעון בפירוט
צמיחת המכירות לעומת הרבעון הקודם, לפי הדוחות.
רווח למניה $0.66 לעומת $0.57 צפוי.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 6 טענות
C25עובדהhigh confidence
Q2 2026 sales were $529.3M, up 8.0% on Q2 2025, and gross margin rose to 26.1% from 22.8%. Commercial Aerospace sales rose 18.3% to $346.6M while Defense, Space & Other fell 7.2% to $182.7M.
C30טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Management says the incremental operating margin on extra sales was 49% in Q2 2026 and about 37% for 2026 at the guidance midpoint, and that the mid-30s is the run rate to expect from here; in Q3 adjusted operating income rose $9.6M on $40.2M more sales, about 24%, as management cited summer seasonality and hiring costs.
sourceHexcel Q2 2026 earnings call, held 30 July 2026primaryHexcel Q3 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)primary
against this
- Management itself guides the run rate down to the mid-30s from the 49% just delivered, and the second-half guidance implies a step down further than that.
- Q2 2026's incremental margin was helped by the absence of the $24.2M Belgian restructuring charge in the base quarter and by the divestiture of lower-margin industrial businesses, neither of which recurs.
- Management says the industry requires running fast to stand still on cost, so the incremental margin is struck before cost inflation it must offset every year.
- 2026-10-21editedQ3 incremental margin of about 24% computed from the release: below the mid-30s run rate management guided.
- 2026-10-22editedthird-quarter call read: management restated the mid-30s run rate for 2026
C28טענת ההנהלהhigh confidence
Hexcel raised its 2026 guidance on 29 July 2026 to sales of $2.025B to $2.125B and adjusted diluted earnings per share of $2.30 to $2.40, from $2.0B to $2.1B and $2.10 to $2.30, leaving free cash flow above $195M and capital expenditure below $100M unchanged; it reaffirmed all four on 21 October 2026 with the Q3 release.
sourceHexcel Q2 2026 results release, Exhibit 99.1 to the 8-K of…primaryHexcel Q3 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)primary
against this
- The free cash flow guidance did not move when the earnings guidance was raised twice, so the extra profit is not yet expected to reach cash in 2026.
- The earnings guidance implies second-half adjusted earnings per share below the first half's, which management attributes to hiring, a carbon fibre line restart, third-quarter European seasonality and caution about the Middle East.
- The shares fell after the raise, and the measured reaction to the release was a 2.6% decline.
- 2026-10-21editedQ3 2026 release reaffirmed the guidance, neither cut nor narrowed.
- 2026-10-22editedthird-quarter call read: guidance language on the fourth quarter added
C29אומדןhigh confidence
Hexcel's own guidance implies second-half 2026 adjusted earnings per share of $1.05 to $1.15 against $1.25 in the first half; Q3 delivered $0.50 and nine-month adjusted EPS is $1.75, so the guide implies $0.55 to $0.65 for Q4.
derivedHexcel reported adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.59 in Q1 2026 and $0.66 in Q2 2026, so $1.25 in the first half. Subtracting that from the guided full-year range of $2.30 to $2.40 leaves $1.05 to $1.15 for the second half. Inputs C28.
against this
- Management gives four specific reasons: accelerated hiring of about 400 people, pulling a carbon fibre line restart forward from 2027, the third-quarter European shutdowns and a small provision for the Middle East. All four are investments in 2027 volume rather than deterioration.
- The company has beaten its own earnings estimate in six of the last eight quarters, so a guided step-down is not the same as a delivered one.
- The second half of 2025 carried the same seasonal pattern, so the comparison is half-on-half rather than against the year-ago half the company guides on.
- 2026-10-21editedQ3 delivered $0.50 of the implied $1.05 to $1.15 second half; Q4 implied range derived from the guide and nine-month EPS.
C56טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
On the third-quarter 2026 call management said purchase orders support at least 80 A350 shipsets in 2026, that 60 to 65 are already pulled with about 20 needed in the fourth quarter at a rate of seven a month, and that current demand signals indicate around 100 A350 shipsets in 2027, about 25% more, with Airbus's rate 12 a month reaching a full-year run rate only in 2029 (132).
against this
- The 2027 figure is a triangulation of Airbus's long-term schedule, a supplier survey of about 15 sites and early-2027 purchase orders, not a firm order book, and the same company dropped its 2025 guidance twice when Airbus's plan fell from about 98 to about 57 shipsets over that year.
- Hexcel ships six months or more ahead of deliveries and an analyst asked directly about channel stock; management conceded some aircraft are being built without seats and interiors, which delays deliveries without changing Hexcel's pull.
C57טענת ההנהלהlow confidence
The new chief financial officer said the objective of his margin initiative is to close a 200 basis point gap to the previous peak margin and approach 20% adjusted operating margin, above the 18% target, through price realisation on long-term agreement renegotiations, general and administrative savings and yield improvement; the chairman said the path to 18% would be a straight line from 2027 as volume comes in, and that selling, general and administrative cost should fall from 9.0% to 6.5% to 7.0% of sales at full production rates.
against this
- No price, date or contract is named for the renegotiations, and the thesis's own accepted risk is that the Airbus agreements all reprice only at the end of 2030, outside this horizon, so most of the 'price realisation' is not scheduled to arrive soon.
- The 20% is an aspiration of an executive about six months in the role, described as an opportunity to approach, not a target, and the 18% already assumes the full ramp that the price pays for in C42.
לאן הלך הכסף
ב-2025 היא רכשה בחזרה מניות ב-454.3 מיליון דולר, חלקן בכסף שהושאל, במחיר של כ-70.95 דולר ברבעון האחרון. החוב עומד עכשיו על 2.1 פעמים הרווח המתואם של שנה, לעומת יעד של 1.5 עד 2.0, ולכן הרכישות מושהות עד הרבעון הרביעי.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 4 טענות
C35עובדהhigh confidence
Hexcel repurchased 5,720,616 shares for $454.3M during 2025, including an accelerated repurchase funded by a $350M draw on its revolving credit facility in October 2025 at an average of $70.95 in the fourth quarter. It repurchased nothing in Q2 2026 and $380.6M of authorisation remains.
C37אומדןhigh confidence
The 5.5% reduction in share count added about $0.06 to first-half 2026 earnings per share, while the higher interest bill that helped pay for it cost about $0.07 after tax - the borrowed buyback has not yet been accretive.
derivedFirst-half 2026 net income of $86.5M over 76.6M diluted shares gives $1.129; over the 81.1M shares of a year earlier it gives $1.067, so the smaller count added $0.063. The $6.9M increase in net interest expense, taxed at the first half's 18.5% effective rate, is $5.62M, or $0.073 on 76.6M shares. Inputs C34, C35, C36.
against this
- Not all of the interest increase is the buyback. Hexcel also replaced $400M of 3.95% notes due 2027 with $400M of 4.9% notes due 2031, which adds about $3.8M a year regardless of the repurchase.
- The shares were bought at an average of $70.95 in the fourth quarter of 2025 against $89.82 today, so on price the repurchase was well timed and the comparison above is only the first eighteen months of a permanent share reduction against a temporary debt balance.
- The debt is being repaid - total debt fell $33.6M in the first half of 2026 - so the interest drag shrinks each year while the share reduction does not.
C40אומדןhigh confidence
Net debt is about 2.1 times trailing adjusted cash profit by the company's own measure at 30 September 2026, still above its 1.5 to 2.0 target, with management on track to return to the range in the fourth quarter and buybacks, paused until then, to be reconsidered once there.
derivedNet debt of $857.1M (total debt $934.9M, C34, less cash $77.8M) over trailing twelve-month adjusted EBITDA of $401M, which the chief financial officer stated on the 22 October call, is 2.14 times, against the 1.5 to 2.0 times management states as its target (C39); on the earlier $390M (C27) it was 2.30 times.
against this
- The ratio falls on the denominator as well as the numerator: at the guided 2026 adjusted earnings and free cash flow above $195M, adjusted cash profit rises and leverage reaches the top of the target range without any extraordinary repayment.
- Nothing matures inside the horizon. The nearest maturity after the 2027 notes were redeemed is the revolving facility and the 2031 notes, both in 2031, so the leverage is a policy constraint rather than a solvency one.
- 2026-10-22editedthird-quarter call gave the leverage the company measures, 2.1 times, down from the 2.3 times in this claim, with a return to its target range expected in the fourth quarter
C39טענת ההנהלהhigh confidence
Management says it is paying down debt to return net debt to a target of 1.5 to 2.0 times adjusted EBITDA, remains committed to the dividend, and will return further cash to shareholders only after reaching that level, absent an acquisition meeting a 15% return on invested capital threshold.
against this
- The same management took leverage above its own target ten months earlier by borrowing $350M to fund an accelerated repurchase, so the stated priority is recent and follows a decision that broke it.
- The target is a policy the company sets and can reset. Nothing in the credit agreement requires 1.5 to 2.0 times - Note 5 discloses no covenant at that level - so the constraint on buybacks is a choice rather than an obligation.
- The acquisition escape is wide: management says an inorganic opportunity clearing advanced material science, an aerospace and defence focus and a 15% return would be considered, which is a threshold the buyer sets and tests on its own forecast.
המחיר, ואיפה אנחנו חלוקים על השוק
בקצרה. מלא. המחיר כבר מניח שההתאוששות בייצור המטוסים תגיע ל-Hexcel במלואה ובזמן, ולכן אם זה יקרה יש מעט מה להרוויח, ואם זה יתעכב יש הרבה מה להפסיד.
מחיר המניה
$89.82
שער סגירה,
מכפיל הרווח
44.9
המכפיל המקובל בשש השנים האחרונות: 56.3
מכפיל ה-EBITDA (שווי החברה ביחס לרווח התזרימי)
21.7
המכפיל המקובל בשש השנים האחרונות: 24.1
המניה ירדה ב-12.2% בחודש האחרון וב-19.6% מהשיא, אחרי עלייה של 42.9% במהלך השנה. היא ירדה ב-2.6% ביום שאחרי העלאת התחזית ביולי.
המבחן הבא הוא דוחות הרבעון הרביעי בסוף ינואר. ההנהלה אומרת שעלות הגיוס תיעלם במהלך 2027 עם עליית היקפי הייצור; שיעור רווח שיעלה מעל 11.0% של הרבעון השלישי יתמוך בכך.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 4 טענות
C43עובדהmedium confidence
The analyst panel covering Hexcel is split 17 buy, 18 hold and 1 sell, and the shares fell 2.6% in the session after July's raised guidance; they are down 12.2% over 20 sessions against a gain of 42.9% over 252.
C29אומדןhigh confidence
Hexcel's own guidance implies second-half 2026 adjusted earnings per share of $1.05 to $1.15 against $1.25 in the first half; Q3 delivered $0.50 and nine-month adjusted EPS is $1.75, so the guide implies $0.55 to $0.65 for Q4.
derivedHexcel reported adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.59 in Q1 2026 and $0.66 in Q2 2026, so $1.25 in the first half. Subtracting that from the guided full-year range of $2.30 to $2.40 leaves $1.05 to $1.15 for the second half. Inputs C28.
against this
- Management gives four specific reasons: accelerated hiring of about 400 people, pulling a carbon fibre line restart forward from 2027, the third-quarter European shutdowns and a small provision for the Middle East. All four are investments in 2027 volume rather than deterioration.
- The company has beaten its own earnings estimate in six of the last eight quarters, so a guided step-down is not the same as a delivered one.
- The second half of 2025 carried the same seasonal pattern, so the comparison is half-on-half rather than against the year-ago half the company guides on.
- 2026-10-21editedQ3 delivered $0.50 of the implied $1.05 to $1.15 second half; Q4 implied range derived from the guide and nine-month EPS.
C30טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Management says the incremental operating margin on extra sales was 49% in Q2 2026 and about 37% for 2026 at the guidance midpoint, and that the mid-30s is the run rate to expect from here; in Q3 adjusted operating income rose $9.6M on $40.2M more sales, about 24%, as management cited summer seasonality and hiring costs.
sourceHexcel Q2 2026 earnings call, held 30 July 2026primaryHexcel Q3 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)primary
against this
- Management itself guides the run rate down to the mid-30s from the 49% just delivered, and the second-half guidance implies a step down further than that.
- Q2 2026's incremental margin was helped by the absence of the $24.2M Belgian restructuring charge in the base quarter and by the divestiture of lower-margin industrial businesses, neither of which recurs.
- Management says the industry requires running fast to stand still on cost, so the incremental margin is struck before cost inflation it must offset every year.
- 2026-10-21editedQ3 incremental margin of about 24% computed from the release: below the mid-30s run rate management guided.
- 2026-10-22editedthird-quarter call read: management restated the mid-30s run rate for 2026
C58טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Management said full-year 2026 will land at least at the middle of guidance and possibly slightly above, with a full-year operating margin of about 13% and incremental margin in the mid-30s per cent; that hiring (about 525 against a plan of 400, with a couple of hundred more to come) and idle carbon fibre lines restarted three years early cost margin in the third quarter and will cost some in the first half of 2027 through training; and that capital spending stays at $100 million to $125 million a year with nothing significant until the early 2030s.
against this
- 'About 13%' for the year is the chairman's rounding of a guide whose own nine-month figure is 12.8% and whose third quarter was 11.0%, so it requires a fourth-quarter margin near 14%, a step that has no precedent in the quarters reported this year.
- The 'mid-30s' incremental is the same figure the company gave in July, when the second quarter ran at 49%; this quarter ran at about 24% (C30), so management is restating a run rate the last quarter did not deliver.
איך לקרוא את המכפיל
מכפיל רווח של כ-45 על הרווח של השנה האחרונה, או 38 על הרווח המתואם הצפוי השנה. התוכנית של ההנהלה לסוף העשור:
- כ-500 מיליון דולר מכירות נוספות בשנה, כש-Airbus ו-Boeing בונות בקצב השיא המתוכנן שלהן.
- כ-200 מיליון דולר נוספים מתחום הצבא והחלל.
- רווח של 18 סנט על כל דולר מכירות.
- גם אז המכפיל במחיר של היום יעמוד על כ-18, ולכן ארבע שנים ללא תקלה יותירו לקונה מעט.
מול ההיסטוריה שלה. המכפיל על הרווח נמוך מהמקובל אצלה, אבל המכפילים על המכירות ועל הנכסים גבוהים מהמקובל, והעסק עדיין רק באמצע הדרך חזרה לשנתו הטובה ביותר.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 5 טענות
C41אומדןhigh confidence
At $89.82 Hexcel costs about $38 for each $1 of the midpoint of its own guided 2026 adjusted earnings, an enterprise value of $7.69B against $390M of trailing adjusted cash profit, and a free cash flow yield of about 2.9%.
derivedClose of $89.82 against the midpoint of guided 2026 adjusted diluted earnings per share of $2.35 (C28) is 38.2. Market capitalisation of $6.79B plus net debt of $897.2M (C34) is an enterprise value of $7.69B; against trailing adjusted EBITDA of $390M (C27) that is 19.7, and the guided free cash flow of more than $195M is 2.9% of market capitalisation. Pack figures from S15.
against this
- The trailing figures are struck on a trough. Adjusted operating margin was 9.1% in 2025 against 18% in 2019, so a trailing multiple on a cyclical industrial at the bottom of its margin cycle is the wrong instrument by construction - which is why the frame here is forward.
- The shares are 19.6% below their 52-week high, so the price already reflects some of the doubt: the multiple is lower than it was in July when guidance was raised.
- The company's own median price-to-earnings ratio over prior fiscal years is higher than today's, so on its own history the shares are not expensive.
C31טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Management says that when Airbus and Boeing reach their publicly stated peak build rates Hexcel will earn about $500M of additional annual sales from its existing contracts, that defence and space will add about $200M more, and that this takes adjusted operating margin to 18% before the end of the decade.
sourceHexcel Q2 2026 earnings call, held 30 July 2026primaryHexcel FY2025 results release, Exhibit 99.1 to the 8-K of 28…primary
against this
- Every dollar of it depends on two other companies' production schedules. Airbus built 57 A350s in 2025 against the 144 a year its own rate-12 target implies, and Airbus says a third party's engine deliveries are constraining the ramp.
- The defence and space half is not growing today. Hexcel's Defense, Space & Other sales fell 5.8% in the first half of 2026, and management says Defence and Space alone, excluding the divested industrial businesses, was unchanged year over year in Q2 2026.
- Nothing is contracted for it. The agreements are existing long-term supply agreements whose volume follows the airframers' build rates, and neither the Boeing framework announced in July 2026 nor any Airbus agreement discloses a volume.
C42אומדןmedium confidence
At $89.82 the price already pays about $18 for each $1 the company's own end-of-decade target would earn, so the entire ramp - the $500M, the $200M and the 18% margin - is in the price before it happens.
derivedAdds management's $500M of commercial and $200M of defence and space incremental sales (C31) to FY2025 sales of $1,893.9M (C23), giving about $2.59B, and to the 2026 guidance midpoint of $2.075B (C28), giving about $2.78B. At the stated 18% adjusted operating margin that is $467M to $500M of operating profit; deducting $25M to $40M of interest (C34, C38) and taxing at 20% gives $342M to $380M; over 72M to 76.5M shares (C36) that is $4.46 to $5.27 a share. Against $89.82 the range is 17.0 to 20.1 times, about 18 at the middle.
against this
- If the ramp lands and the shares then trade on a normal industrial multiple of 25 times, the price is roughly $120 against $89.82 today - about 34% over four years, plus a dividend near 0.8% a year. That is a real return, just not a large one for the risk.
- Management says that once peak rates are reached in 2028 and 2029 Hexcel is likely to stay there for a long time because the backlog is close to ten years of production, so the terminal earnings deserve a higher multiple than a cyclical trough figure would.
- The calculation assumes no buyback beyond the 72M share floor and no repricing of the Airbus agreements, which management expects to renegotiate upward when they expire at the end of 2030 - both are upside the arithmetic excludes.
C22טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Airbus says Pratt & Whitney's failure to commit to the number of engines Airbus ordered is negatively impacting its 2026 delivery guidance and its ramp-up trajectory, and that the A220 ramp remains paced by integrating the Spirit AeroSystems work packages.
against this
- It is an airframer naming its supplier as the reason its own targets are at risk, which is exactly the statement a company under delivery pressure has an incentive to make. RTX has not conceded the shortfall in the same terms.
- Engine supply constrains the A320 family, a narrowbody programme where Hexcel's content is concentrated in engines and nacelles rather than the airframe - so the constraint bites hardest on the part of the pond Hexcel earns least from.
- The A350, the programme this thesis actually turns on, is powered by Rolls-Royce rather than Pratt & Whitney, so this constraint does not explain the 57 deliveries in 2025.
C27טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Management says 2019 was Hexcel's peak year, with adjusted EBITDA of $585M at a 24.8% margin, and that trailing twelve-month adjusted EBITDA through 30 June 2026 was $390M - two-thirds of the way back.
against this
- The 2019 figures appear in no document this research could open. They are stated on a call about a year Hexcel no longer reports, and the 24.8% margin implies revenue of about $2.36B, which is reconciled nowhere in the current filings.
- The company is not the 2019 company. It has since sold its Austrian business and a Hartford 3D printing operation, closed Welkenraedt and shut Leicester's industrial lines, so the perimeter meant to earn the target margin is smaller than the one that earned 24.8%.
- Adjusted EBITDA is the company's own measure on both dates and the add-backs differ: 2025 and 2026 carry restructuring charges from those exits that 2019 did not, so the gap between $390M and $585M is not measured on one definition.
המכפיל מול המתחרים
המתחרות שלה עדיין לא נבדקו מול הדוחות שלהן, ולכן אין קבוצה שאפשר להשוות אליה את המחיר; המחיר נבחן מול ההיסטוריה של החברה עצמה.
איפה אנחנו חלוקים על השוק
השוק חושב
התאוששות במחזור מאוחר, שהחדשות הטובות בה כבר ידועות: האנליסטים חלוקים שווה בשווה בין קנייה להחזקה.
אנחנו חושבים
התאוששות הרווח אמיתית ומתרחשת, והמחיר כבר מגלם את כולה, והיא תלויה בארבע חברות אחרות.
אף אחד לא עושה בקול את החשבון לסוף העשור. כשעושים אותו לפי יעדי ההנהלה עצמה, המניה יקרה גם אם הכול מתנהל כשורה.
מה שסותר את ההערכה שלנו הוא שיעור הרווח. כל דולר מכירות נוסף השאיר ביוני 49 סנט רווח, לעומת אמצע שנות ה-30 בתחזית; אם זה הקצב האמיתי, יעד ה-18% יגיע מוקדם וגבוה יותר. אם Airbus תעבור ב-2027 את קצב 10 מטוסי A350 בחודש, העלייה בקצב הייצור תהיה מהירה ממה שהנחנו.
מה אומרים האנליסטים
הראיות (באנגלית) · 5 טענות
C42אומדןmedium confidence
At $89.82 the price already pays about $18 for each $1 the company's own end-of-decade target would earn, so the entire ramp - the $500M, the $200M and the 18% margin - is in the price before it happens.
derivedAdds management's $500M of commercial and $200M of defence and space incremental sales (C31) to FY2025 sales of $1,893.9M (C23), giving about $2.59B, and to the 2026 guidance midpoint of $2.075B (C28), giving about $2.78B. At the stated 18% adjusted operating margin that is $467M to $500M of operating profit; deducting $25M to $40M of interest (C34, C38) and taxing at 20% gives $342M to $380M; over 72M to 76.5M shares (C36) that is $4.46 to $5.27 a share. Against $89.82 the range is 17.0 to 20.1 times, about 18 at the middle.
against this
- If the ramp lands and the shares then trade on a normal industrial multiple of 25 times, the price is roughly $120 against $89.82 today - about 34% over four years, plus a dividend near 0.8% a year. That is a real return, just not a large one for the risk.
- Management says that once peak rates are reached in 2028 and 2029 Hexcel is likely to stay there for a long time because the backlog is close to ten years of production, so the terminal earnings deserve a higher multiple than a cyclical trough figure would.
- The calculation assumes no buyback beyond the 72M share floor and no repricing of the Airbus agreements, which management expects to renegotiate upward when they expire at the end of 2030 - both are upside the arithmetic excludes.
C43עובדהmedium confidence
The analyst panel covering Hexcel is split 17 buy, 18 hold and 1 sell, and the shares fell 2.6% in the session after July's raised guidance; they are down 12.2% over 20 sessions against a gain of 42.9% over 252.
C30טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Management says the incremental operating margin on extra sales was 49% in Q2 2026 and about 37% for 2026 at the guidance midpoint, and that the mid-30s is the run rate to expect from here; in Q3 adjusted operating income rose $9.6M on $40.2M more sales, about 24%, as management cited summer seasonality and hiring costs.
sourceHexcel Q2 2026 earnings call, held 30 July 2026primaryHexcel Q3 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)primary
against this
- Management itself guides the run rate down to the mid-30s from the 49% just delivered, and the second-half guidance implies a step down further than that.
- Q2 2026's incremental margin was helped by the absence of the $24.2M Belgian restructuring charge in the base quarter and by the divestiture of lower-margin industrial businesses, neither of which recurs.
- Management says the industry requires running fast to stand still on cost, so the incremental margin is struck before cost inflation it must offset every year.
- 2026-10-21editedQ3 incremental margin of about 24% computed from the release: below the mid-30s run rate management guided.
- 2026-10-22editedthird-quarter call read: management restated the mid-30s run rate for 2026
C31טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Management says that when Airbus and Boeing reach their publicly stated peak build rates Hexcel will earn about $500M of additional annual sales from its existing contracts, that defence and space will add about $200M more, and that this takes adjusted operating margin to 18% before the end of the decade.
sourceHexcel Q2 2026 earnings call, held 30 July 2026primaryHexcel FY2025 results release, Exhibit 99.1 to the 8-K of 28…primary
against this
- Every dollar of it depends on two other companies' production schedules. Airbus built 57 A350s in 2025 against the 144 a year its own rate-12 target implies, and Airbus says a third party's engine deliveries are constraining the ramp.
- The defence and space half is not growing today. Hexcel's Defense, Space & Other sales fell 5.8% in the first half of 2026, and management says Defence and Space alone, excluding the divested industrial businesses, was unchanged year over year in Q2 2026.
- Nothing is contracted for it. The agreements are existing long-term supply agreements whose volume follows the airframers' build rates, and neither the Boeing framework announced in July 2026 nor any Airbus agreement discloses a volume.
C11טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Airbus says it expects to reach a rate of between 70 and 75 A320 Family aircraft a month by the end of 2027 stabilising at 75 thereafter, continues to target rate 12 for the A350 in 2028 and rate 13 for the A220 in 2028, and targets around 870 commercial deliveries in 2026.
against this
- Airbus delivered 57 A350s in 2025, which is 40% of the 144 a year that rate 12 implies, so the 2028 target requires output to more than double in three years.
- Airbus itself says Pratt & Whitney's failure to commit to the number of engines Airbus ordered is negatively impacting 2026 guidance and the ramp-up trajectory - the binding constraint on the largest programme is a third party's.
- Airbus has missed its own delivery target in several recent years, and cut the 2025 target in December 2025 before reporting 793.
מה יכול להשתבש, ואיך נדע
הסיכונים
- שני לקוחות Airbus ו-Boeing הן 52% מהמכירות, וכל עיכוב בקצב הייצור שלהן מגיע ל-Hexcel כעבור חודשים.
- אחרים קובעים את הקצב Airbus אומרת שכשל של יצרנית מנועים באספקה כבר פוגע באספקות ובעלייה בקצב הייצור שלה ב-2026.
- חוב מעל היעד החוב נטו הוא כ-2.3 פעמים הרווח התזרימי השנתי, מעל הטווח של 1.5 עד 2.0 שהחברה קבעה לעצמה, ולכן הכסף הולך לנושים.
- דרך חדשה לבנות מטוסים ייתכן שהמטוס הבא צר-הגוף ישתמש בחומרים מהירים יותר על בסיס פלסטיק, שמדלגים על ההקשיה ועל הדבקים ש-Hexcel מוכרת.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 6 טענות
C16עובדהhigh confidence
Airbus and its subcontractors were 39% of Hexcel's 2025 net sales and Boeing and its subcontractors 13% - 52% between them - and within the Commercial Aerospace market about 77% of 2025 sales went to those two and their subcontractors.
C18עובדהhigh confidence
Hexcel delivers its products into the supply chain about four to six months before aircraft delivery on established programmes, with a range of one to eighteen months, so its sales track build rates rather than reported deliveries.
C22טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Airbus says Pratt & Whitney's failure to commit to the number of engines Airbus ordered is negatively impacting its 2026 delivery guidance and its ramp-up trajectory, and that the A220 ramp remains paced by integrating the Spirit AeroSystems work packages.
against this
- It is an airframer naming its supplier as the reason its own targets are at risk, which is exactly the statement a company under delivery pressure has an incentive to make. RTX has not conceded the shortfall in the same terms.
- Engine supply constrains the A320 family, a narrowbody programme where Hexcel's content is concentrated in engines and nacelles rather than the airframe - so the constraint bites hardest on the part of the pond Hexcel earns least from.
- The A350, the programme this thesis actually turns on, is powered by Rolls-Royce rather than Pratt & Whitney, so this constraint does not explain the 57 deliveries in 2025.
C40אומדןhigh confidence
Net debt is about 2.1 times trailing adjusted cash profit by the company's own measure at 30 September 2026, still above its 1.5 to 2.0 target, with management on track to return to the range in the fourth quarter and buybacks, paused until then, to be reconsidered once there.
derivedNet debt of $857.1M (total debt $934.9M, C34, less cash $77.8M) over trailing twelve-month adjusted EBITDA of $401M, which the chief financial officer stated on the 22 October call, is 2.14 times, against the 1.5 to 2.0 times management states as its target (C39); on the earlier $390M (C27) it was 2.30 times.
against this
- The ratio falls on the denominator as well as the numerator: at the guided 2026 adjusted earnings and free cash flow above $195M, adjusted cash profit rises and leverage reaches the top of the target range without any extraordinary repayment.
- Nothing matures inside the horizon. The nearest maturity after the 2027 notes were redeemed is the revolving facility and the 2031 notes, both in 2031, so the leverage is a policy constraint rather than a solvency one.
- 2026-10-22editedthird-quarter call gave the leverage the company measures, 2.1 times, down from the 2.3 times in this claim, with a return to its target range expected in the fourth quarter
C08עובדהmedium confidence
Toray Advanced Composites sells Cetex thermoplastic laminates it says can be press formed in minutes, and markets welding them as an ideal alternative to time-consuming and potentially weaker adhesive bonding - the joining step Hexcel sells structural adhesives for.
C09עובדהmedium confidence
NASA runs a Hi-Rate Composite Aircraft Manufacturing project which it says addresses an industry need for more rapid production of composite aircraft, partnering with industry to raise the rate of composite aircraft manufacturing and reduce its cost.
שאלות פתוחות
- כמה Hexcel מרוויחה מכל מטוס. החברה מעולם לא פירטה את היקף החומר שלה בכל מטוס, ולכן אי אפשר לבדוק את יעד 500 מיליון הדולר.
- האם 49 סנט רווח על כל דולר נוסף הם אמיתיים. ברבעון השלישי זה היה 24; ההנהלה עדיין מדברת על אמצע שנות ה-30.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 3 טענות
C31טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Management says that when Airbus and Boeing reach their publicly stated peak build rates Hexcel will earn about $500M of additional annual sales from its existing contracts, that defence and space will add about $200M more, and that this takes adjusted operating margin to 18% before the end of the decade.
sourceHexcel Q2 2026 earnings call, held 30 July 2026primaryHexcel FY2025 results release, Exhibit 99.1 to the 8-K of 28…primary
against this
- Every dollar of it depends on two other companies' production schedules. Airbus built 57 A350s in 2025 against the 144 a year its own rate-12 target implies, and Airbus says a third party's engine deliveries are constraining the ramp.
- The defence and space half is not growing today. Hexcel's Defense, Space & Other sales fell 5.8% in the first half of 2026, and management says Defence and Space alone, excluding the divested industrial businesses, was unchanged year over year in Q2 2026.
- Nothing is contracted for it. The agreements are existing long-term supply agreements whose volume follows the airframers' build rates, and neither the Boeing framework announced in July 2026 nor any Airbus agreement discloses a volume.
C30טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Management says the incremental operating margin on extra sales was 49% in Q2 2026 and about 37% for 2026 at the guidance midpoint, and that the mid-30s is the run rate to expect from here; in Q3 adjusted operating income rose $9.6M on $40.2M more sales, about 24%, as management cited summer seasonality and hiring costs.
sourceHexcel Q2 2026 earnings call, held 30 July 2026primaryHexcel Q3 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)primary
against this
- Management itself guides the run rate down to the mid-30s from the 49% just delivered, and the second-half guidance implies a step down further than that.
- Q2 2026's incremental margin was helped by the absence of the $24.2M Belgian restructuring charge in the base quarter and by the divestiture of lower-margin industrial businesses, neither of which recurs.
- Management says the industry requires running fast to stand still on cost, so the incremental margin is struck before cost inflation it must offset every year.
- 2026-10-21editedQ3 incremental margin of about 24% computed from the release: below the mid-30s run rate management guided.
- 2026-10-22editedthird-quarter call read: management restated the mid-30s run rate for 2026
C58טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Management said full-year 2026 will land at least at the middle of guidance and possibly slightly above, with a full-year operating margin of about 13% and incremental margin in the mid-30s per cent; that hiring (about 525 against a plan of 400, with a couple of hundred more to come) and idle carbon fibre lines restarted three years early cost margin in the third quarter and will cost some in the first half of 2027 through training; and that capital spending stays at $100 million to $125 million a year with nothing significant until the early 2030s.
against this
- 'About 13%' for the year is the chairman's rounding of a guide whose own nine-month figure is 12.8% and whose third quarter was 11.0%, so it requires a fourth-quarter margin near 14%, a step that has no precedent in the quarters reported this year.
- The 'mid-30s' incremental is the same figure the company gave in July, when the second quarter ran at 49%; this quarter ran at about 24% (C30), so management is restating a run rate the last quarter did not deliver.
מה ישנה את ההערכה שלנו
- לא אטרקטיבית→אטרקטיביתשיעור הרווח מגיע והמאזן מתוקן, במכפיל נמוך יותר
נדרשים כל אלה:
- ○שנה שלמה עם שיעור רווח תפעולי מתואם מעל 15%, ומכל דולר מכירות נוסף נשארים לפחות 25 סנט, במשך ארבעה רבעונים של שיפור.ייבדק בדוח הבא, עד 27 בינואר
- ○החוב יורד חזרה לתוך היעד שהחברה קבעה לעצמה והרכישות החוזרות מתחדשות.במעקב שוטף
- ○שווי החברה כולה עומד על כ-13 פעמים הרווח המזומן המתואם השנתי.בערך ≈$59.27 במחירי היום, 34% מתחת לשער הסגירה האחרון
- פותח מחדש את המחקרהיקף החומר בכל ערכת מטוס סוף סוף נחשף
בתנאי ש:
- ○Hexcel מפרסמת כמה חומר היא מוכרת לכל מטוס בכל תוכנית, כך שאפשר לבדוק את יעד ה-500 מיליון דולר.ייבדק בדוח הבא, עד 27 בינואר
נטעה גם אם
- Airbus בונה 10 מטוסי A350 בחודש במהלך 2027, ו-Boeing מקבלת אישור לבנות 47 מטוסי 737 בחודש.
- במשך ארבעה רבעונים, כל דולר מכירות נוסף משאיר קרוב יותר ל-49 הסנט שהשאיר ברבעון שהסתיים ביוני 2026 מאשר לאמצע שנות ה-30 שההנהלה מצפה לו.
- Hexcel מעלה את יעדי סוף העשור מעל 500 מיליון דולר של מכירות מטוסים נוספות או מעל שיעור רווח של 18%.
מה בהמשך
- 21 באוקטובר 2026 תוצאות הרבעון השלישי של 2026: האם שיעור הרווח התפעולי המתואם מחזיק בסביבות 12.5% לאורך הירידה שההנהלה צפתה במחצית השנייה, והאם התחזית של לפחות 80 ערכות A350 נשמרת.
כל האירועים הצפויים
- 21 באוקטובר 2026 תוצאות הרבעון השלישי של 2026: האם שיעור הרווח התפעולי המתואם מחזיק בסביבות 12.5% לאורך הירידה שההנהלה צפתה במחצית השנייה, והאם התחזית של לפחות 80 ערכות A350 נשמרת.
- דצמבר 2026 Boeing מגיעה ל-47 מטוסי 737 בחודש: האם עליית הקצב של יצרנית המטוסים השנייה מתממשת לפי לוח הזמנים של Boeing עצמה, שאליו Hexcel מספקת ארבעה עד שישה חודשים מראש.
- ינואר 2027 תוצאות הרבעון הרביעי של 2026 ותחזית 2027: האם התחזית ל-2027 מגלמת שיעור רווח על מכירות נוספות קרוב ל-49% של הרבעון השני או לאמצע שנות ה-30, והאם הרכישות החוזרות מתחדשות כשהחוב נטו מתקרב לתקרה של 2.0 פעמים.
- אפריל 2027 דוח הזימון לאסיפה של 2027, תשלום מניות הביצועים לשנים 2024 עד 2026: האם התשואה על ההון המושקע עברה את הסף שמחזור 2023 עד 2025 החמיץ, כלומר המבחן של תוכנית התגמול עצמה לתיעוד ההון.
מה קרה מאז
נכתבה
11 בספטמבר
המחיר בעת כתיבת התזה
$89.82
10 בספטמבר
- 22 באוקטוברדוחותהשיחה שיפרה את התחזית ל-A350, אבל לא את שיעור הרווחההנהלה מתכננת כ-100 סטים של A350 ב-2027 ומדברת על שיעור רווח קרוב ל-20%, אבל שיעור הרווח ברבעון השלישי נשאר נמוך והמחיר כבר מגלם את ההתאוששות.
- 21 באוקטוברדוחותשיעור הרווח ברבעון השלישי ירד ל-11.0%; התחזית נשמרהשיעור הרווח נחת מתחת לקו של 11.5% שקבענו, אבל התחזית אושרה מחדש, ולכן ההערכה לא השתנתה.
- 5 באוקטוברבדיקת התזההטיעון בעד ההשקעה מופיע עכשיו מתחת לשורה התחתונהאחרי פיילוט בחמש חברות, הבעלים ביקש להוסיף את הטיעון בעד ההשקעה לכל תזה.
- 4 באוקטוברבדיקת התזהרשימת הבדיקות של הבעלים: מקורות ההכנסה, עלות הצמיחה, ההנהלה, אירועים צפוייםרשימת הבדיקות של הבעלים הראתה שהשיטה שותקת בשאלות מי מנהל את החברה, כמה עולה הצמיחה, מאיפה מגיע הכסף ואילו אירועים צפויים בתאריכים ידועים. בסבב הזה מילאנו את ארבעת הנושאים מתוך דוח הזימון לאסיפה והדוחות.
- 26 בספטמברבדיקת התזהמה שיוכיח שטעינו מצביע עכשיו כלפי מעלה. ההערכה לא השתנתהכל הבדיקות של ההערכה תיארו התאוששות מאכזבת, ואלה יכלו רק לאשש הערכה שהמחיר כבר מגלם את ההתאוששות. עכשיו הן מתארות עלייה מהירה יותר בקצב הייצור, שיעור רווח גבוה יותר ויעדים גדולים יותר.
- 11 בספטמברהתזה נכתבהלא אטרקטיבית, ביטחון בינונישישה שבועות אחרי העלאת תחזית שהמניה ירדה בעקבותיה, כשההתאוששות נראית בשיעורי הרווח וכבר מגולמת במחיר.
נבדקה גם פעם אחת, ללא ממצא חדש שמצריך פעולה.
מקורות 21
Where this came from
Sources - 21
Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.
- S01primarycompany filing2026-02-11the product and process description, customer concentration, the market split, the composite-content-by-generation table, the competition section, the barriers-to-entry language and the 2025 buyback detailbacksC01C02C03C46C05C10C15C16C18C23C24C48C45C35C49C53C55
- S02primarycompany filing2026-07-29the income statement, the debt note, the share-count reconciliation and the effective tax ratebacksC34C36C38C53C55
- S03primarycompany filing2026-07-29the raised 2026 guidance, the market split, free cash flow, the notes refinancing and the buyback pausebacksC25C28C45C35
- S04primarytranscript2026-07-30Hexcel Q2 2026 earnings call, held 30 July 2026management's $500M and $200M incremental-sales figures, the 18% margin target, incremental margins, the carbon fibre line restarts, the long-term agreement structure and the 2030 Airbus expiry; and eight analysts' questions, including RBC's on the second-half margin step-down
When Airbus and Boeing ultimately achieve their publicly stated peak build rates on the major commercial programs, that will generate $500 million in incremental annual sales for Hexcel from our existing contracts. In addition, we expect about $200 million in incremental sales in Defense & Space before the end of the decade. … our agreements tend to be for about 5 to 7 years. So every year, 15% to 20% of them come due. Now obviously, the Airbus ones, which represent 40% of our business expire at the end of 2030. … we now have firm orders from Airbus through the end of 2026 that confirm at least the 80 shipsets for the A350. … in our peak year of 2019, adjusted EBITDA totaled $585 million with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 24.8%.
backsC07C19C20C21C26C27C30C31C32C33C45C39 - S05primarycompany filing2026-01-28the full-year 2025 figures, the original 2026 guidance and the first statement of the $500M incremental-revenue figurebacksC23C24C31
- S06primarycompany filing2026-07-29the quarterly sales split by segment and market - and, read against the release, confirmation that Hexcel publishes no aftermarket or spares lineread, but no claim rests on it
- S07primarycompany filing2026-01-30The Boeing Company 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025 The Boeing Companya customer's own account of what it costs to qualify a composite source, and its stated 737 and 787 production rates - the same market described by a party with the opposite incentivebacksC04C12C12b
- S08primarycompany release2026-01-12the 2025 delivery count and the per-programme split - 607 A320 Family, 93 A220, 57 A350, 36 A330 - and a year-end backlog of 8,754 aircraft
Airbus delivered 793 commercial aircraft to 91 customers globally in 2025 … The backlog at the end of December 2025 increased to a new year-end record of 8,754 aircraft
backsC13 - S09primarycompany release2026-02-18the A320, A350 and A220 rate targets, the 2026 delivery guidance, and Airbus's own statement that Pratt & Whitney engine commitments are constraining the ramp
expects to reach a rate of between 70 and 75 aircraft a month by the end of 2027, stabilising at rate 75 thereafter … continues to target rate 12 for the A350 programme in 2028 … targeting a rate of 13 aircraft a month for the A220 programme in 2028 … around 870 commercial aircraft deliveries
backsC11C22 - S10primaryindustry data2026-09-11NCAMP - the National Center for Advanced Materials Performance, Wichita State University NIAR Wichita State University NIARwhat a composite qualification costs and how long it takes, measured by the body that exists to reduce it, and the fact that the FAA and EASA both accept its design values
the time required for certification of new composite materials by a factor of four and the cost of certification by a factor of 10
backsC06 - S11primaryindustry data2026-09-11Toray Advanced Composites - thermoplastic composites product documentation Toray Advanced Compositesthe attacker's own account of what its material does that Hexcel's thermoset prepreg does not, including welding as a replacement for adhesive bonding
can be press formed in minutes and overmolded for one shot processing
backsC08 - S12primarygovernment data2026-09-11a government programme, outside every party's marketing, aimed at the manufacturing-rate problem that decides which material the next single-aisle aircraft is built from
addresses an aviation industry need for more rapid production of composite aircraft to meet increasing global demand for lightweight transport aircraft
backsC09 - S13primarycompany release2026-07-20the programmes covered - and the absence of any volume, term or value
a broad enterprise-level composite material supply framework
backsC21 - S14primarycompany release2026-07-21Hexcel putting one of its own systems into the public shared database, and its stated reason: making the performance data readily available to new aerospace and defence entrantsbacksC07
- S15secondaryvendor data2026-09-11Research pack, frozen at content/HXL/research-pack.jsonprice, enterprise value, the return series, the analyst split, the FINRA short-interest settlement, the insider Form 4 transcription and the segment split from the filing's own XBRL instancebacksC43C44
- S16primarycompany filing2026-04-01beneficial ownership at 17 March 2026, director and officer biographies, the CD&A's bonus and performance-share measures, targets and 2025 payouts, and the 2023-2025 PSA vestingbacksC50C51C52
- S17primarycompany filing2026-03-13Coogan's appointment effective 1 May 2026, his prior roles at Axcelis and Kaman, and his offer letterbacksC52
- S18primarycompany filing2023-02-08the 2020 to 2022 income statements: sales, cost of sales, selling and admin, research and technology and operating incomebacksC55
- S19primarycompany filing2026-10-21Q3 sales, adjusted operating margin, market split, unchanged 2026 guidance and the $750M buyback authorization.backsC28C30
- S20primarycompany filing2026-10-21Total debt, cash and the financing section at 30 September 2026.backsC34
- S21primarytranscript2026-10-22management's prepared remarks on A350 purchase orders and the 2027 outlook, defence and space softness, hiring and margin, leverage and the buyback; and twelve analysts' questions on the A350 and channel stock, hiring cost, price realisation, capital spending, competition and the 2027 framework. The vendor's text prints the year as 2020 in many places and garbles names; only figures that reproduce the 21 October release or are stated whole are used
Current demand signals indicate around 100 A350 ship sets.
backsC20C32C56C57C58C59C60